The USA Total Federal Government Debt Load - The American "Trudeau".

In Canada, we call a "mountain of debt", a "trudeau", because it is like an upside-down mountain, that grows bigger, the further "into the hole" you go. To be in debt, is to be "under water", so a "water-hole" (in French, a "trudeau"), is what we call a "mountain of debt" - you are "in the hole" as well as being "under water." The big "trudeau" in Canada was created by the father of our current Prime Minister, whose name was Pierre Trudeau. The name for our "National Debt" was developed back at a time when a mountain in Canada was suggested being named "Mount Trudeau". Lots of folks came forward, and suggested we name our "mountain of government debt" after Mr. Trudeau instead, and the name stuck.

We can see from the above chart, that America has built up a pretty serious "trudeau", and that this red mountain keeps growing, regardless of which kind of President is elected. (Don't be offended. We have exactly the same problem here in Canada.)

What is of special concern, is that higher interest-rates, are going to make servicing these ugly "trudeaus" much (much!) more expensive, and that this huge increase in costs, will hammer government finances, and encourage government to raise taxes, which will further add to inflationary costs for citizens of both countries. This year's cost for this American "trudeau" is expected to be 399 billion USA dollars. Even with attractive, heroic assumptions, the USA CBO (Congressional Budget Office) projects this cost to be 1.2 *TRILLION* USA dollars by 2032. That is an *annual* cost estimate, just to pay the interest on the every-growing "trudeau" Federal debt-mountain.

We need to realize - a big "trudeau" means much bigger debt-service costs on national-debt, and these have to be paid somehow.

Historically, governments have inflated their economies,so they can pay down their "trudeaus" with highly-inflated dollars (or reich-marks, or lira, or pesos, or pestas or francs or whatever thingys you are using for money)

But some sort of pay-off or pay-down has to happen. And just to maintain the "trudeau", you need to tax your citizens to make the interest payments. Or, you can default (like Greece and Argentina regularly do), and just not pay. Or, you can print money, and pay with newly created money-units. This is, of course, very inflationary, and will cause various kinds of grief to various persons.

But the upside-down debt-moutain remains, if we are to be honest, and try to maintain economic sanity. And we have to pay the interest costs on it, and these will rise (sharply) if we make bond-yields rise on government bonds.

Will we? Let's find out... :)

(This chart from website: https://www.patriotledger.com/story/opinion/columns/2022/08/27/interest-national-debt-enhances-risk-fiscal-crisis-congressional-budget-office-medicaid-medicare/7891645001/ )

Summer Engineering - The Great Dock Repair Project: My dock was destroyed by the ice last winter - folded up like an accordian and smashed to broken bits. I had to build a crib, fill it with rocks from the old crib, position some remaining structural pieces (old surplus electricity poles), build a superstructure of wooden beams, and create a couple of new decks. Just completed this week, in the nick of time, as we are running out of summer. Tomorrow is the first day of Autumn, and the weather tends to turn, like a switch gets thrown. Leaves are already changing colour, and rain and cold nighttime temperatures are in the forecast.

Kind of like the World. But once the nasty weather passes, spring & summer tend to come around again. And the cold, clear sunny winter days, themselves can be very lovely. The gamble, of course, is will this new structure survive the winter? One never knows for sure. Massive destruction seems to be the one constant we can all count on having to deal with in these strange post-modern times.

September Sunset over the Seguin River, which flows into Georgian Bay. Spectacular beauty, which can be seen in both Nature, and as captured in the various "Group of Seven" oil paintings. Time is short. Do not waste even a minute of it!

"How happy is he born and taught,
That serveth not another's will,
Whose armor is his honest thought,
And simple truth his utmost skill!"
- Sir Henry Wotton (from "The Character of a Happy Life", written in 1614)

Direct, clear, legally-protected land-ownership, is the foundational basis for all civilization. Western and Eastern World Science, Economics, Art and History all prove this. People will fight and die to protect their Homeland. Government agents, politicians, kings and princes should understand and grasp this key reality, and not mess with and degrade the social and economic systems that allow our prosperity and human freedoms to become possible.

Growing Madness: Russia is Insane, Markets Gyrate, Politicians Talk, Cities Burn, and Anger Grows.

Ukraine **really** Needs Jets. (And rockets. And Carl Gustav's, and ammo. Lots and lots of ammo.)

We must Arm Ukraine with everything we have. And then more. Ukraine Forces must be given *ALL* modern weapon systems, and must repel the Russian Terrorists. Otherwise, the Terrorists win.

Putin and his gangsters are the World's greatest threat now.

[ Sept. 23, 2022 ] - Puke Point Reached Yet? - R U vomiting yet?  Has the Market hit your "puke point" yet, where you barf, and sell your longs at market, and go to the bar for a double whiskey and water?    Must be getting pretty close, I suspect.  The trading today is very ugly, and looks not so much like a blowoff, as a melt-down.  

The American Leftists (who are running the show now, make no mistake about it - they cannot blame this on Trump!)  have decided they want a gut-wrenching economic downturn - another *crisis* - which can then open up a whole dog's breakfast of modern neo-fascist political opportunity for themselves.   (This is our nightmare scenario.)  Either they know what they are doing, or they are just insanely stupid and collectively brain-dead.  Choose between really-bad or really scary-awful.

This is the first, most directly fabricated economic downturn we have ever seen.  It is simply not necessary, but it seems to be desired by a curious collective of folks, who are generally not always on the same side.  But this is a different world now.   The Democrats seem to be deeply committed to a series of projects which will *ensure* an ugly, economic downturn for the USA.  

We think this is completely bonkers.

The correct course of action for the Federal Reserve would have been to move interest rates up gradually, and begin a clearly communicated runoff of their absurdly huge balance sheet, which is stuffed full of what are essentially junk bonds - except they are not technically "junk", because they are being underwritten by the Federal USA authorities.   But just beginning the process of not buying more of this puff-money paper, and letting the USA money supply begin a controlled contraction, would have been a powerful and visible anti-inflation action.  AND it would not have hammered the equity markets quite so hard.  Why did they not take this course of action??

What the Fed and other Washington wankers do not really understand, is that many Americans stash their wealth in the USA stock market - and actions to *deliberately* trigger a stock-market crash event, is going to have substantial economic effects in the real USA production economy.   The Fed is doing a "rug-pull' on Americans.

We are in agreement with a wise fellow who suggested a couple of days ago, that the probabilty now of a serious USA recession in 2023, is now 99.9%.   

And we think this is just bonkers.  We agree with the forecast, but disagree with the wisdom and necessity of taking this action. 

The Americans (and our own Government, to a lesser degree), are acting rather insane.

We've just cancelled (again) projects that were to be set up for next year.  Pandemic or post-pandemic - if the central authorities want to smash economic growth that we expected would be on the table for next year, we cannot, as small-holders and bit-players, act against trend. 

What is curious, is just how profoundly un-necessary this current madness, on the part of the central authorities, really is.

We are in agreement with the Goldman-Slacks (sic) boys in NYC, that the end point for the SP500 for 2022 should be revised into the goddamn basement.  They took their forecast from 4300 to 3600, but probably, 3200 (or lower) is closer to where we will be.

But this is nuts.   It's madness, that was not required, and it will not *reduce* inflation, it will, almost certainly *add* to inflation.   Any economic entity that has any sort of pricing power (think any sort of trade union or any group of producers, any professional association, shippers, suppliers of any necessary product, and any and all provincial and municipal tax agencies - literally anyone or anygroup that can raise it's prices), will now do so, as each entity is looking into the business end of a double-barrelled economic downturn, and an ugly loss of real wealth, combined with a violent upswing in operational costs - energy, rent, taxes, etc.

The solution to the current inflation problem, is lower energy, food, housing and tax costs - not idiotic rises in borrowing costs.    In the 1970's this problem was discovered and discussed - and yet nothing was done then, except foolish wage-and-price control attempts (crazy unsuccessful, both in Canada and USA) and then the Volker rate-rises to 20%+, which destroyed economic growth, and smashed many into poverty and bankruptcy.    The 1980's recovery was funded by borrowing.  And the borrowing has been increasing since then.

Now, we are about to raise the costs of the borrowed *trillions*, and at the same time, hammer down the machine that re-cycles savings into productive investment - the markets.

This is goof-stupid.  It's nuts.

We are deeply concerned that trashing the equity markets - which is explicitly what the dumbfucks in Washington want to happen - will have the effect of *increasing* economic demand for non-productive services, which will probably have to be supplied by government agencies and entities from the non-self-financing sectors.   This will be met by more borrowing.   And this will *add* to inflation pressure, and in a manner that will be quite pathological.   (ie. Economics that is Bad, Bad, Not Good.  Clear?)

We've seen this stupid movie before, and I am surprised that I have to sit thru this same idiotic foolishness again.  Fuck stupid Leftist politicians seem unable to learn from their historical errors. 

Maybe you think Trump was not a good fellow.  But assess the economic performance under Trump, and compare it to the current shit-storm of idiotic economic insanity the USA is now dealing with.  By the end of next decade, one of the *biggest* economic costs the USA Federal Government will have, is their annual interest payments on their debt - it will be over 1.2 *trillion* US dollars EACH YEAR.  This will be just the INTERST PORTION of the debt!   We suspect there is zero chance that the USA Government debt will ever by paid off in real money. (Total interest costs on USA Federal debt are expected to be roughly $399 billion for 2022.  Even with the CBO''s attractive assuptions about GDP growth, by 2032, total debt-service costs are projected to be $1.2 trillion.  This number is not visible in the CBO paper, of course.  Total actual USA Federal debt is also nowhere to be found. All tables are reported as "percent of GDP", which masks, of course, what is really happening.) 

The inflation is NECESSARY now, just to re-balance the USA economy.  The USA has to inflate, in order to have tax-extracted puff-dollars to pay down the debt that was taken out in real-dollars.  Like it or not, this is how government borrowing works.

( If curious, here is a link to the .PDF from the Congressional Budget Office's, July 2022 paper, which has the forward projections for USA debt.  This paper looks serious, but it is drivel, because all the charts and projections are based on "percentage of expected GDP", which means all projections are meaningless speculations, and assume that GDP growth humps along nicely, interest rates stay moderate (in the 4% nominal range), and bracket-creep keeps tax collections increasing.  Even with all these heroic assumptions debt-to-GDP is projected to rise.  To find out what the actual real debt numbers are, you have to go to other sites.  But here is the CBO's paper:

https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2022-07/57971-LTBO.pdf   )

A better picture of what is really happening is provided by the note written on this site:

https://www.patriotledger.com/story/opinion/columns/2022/08/27/interest-national-debt-enhances-risk-fiscal-crisis-congressional-budget-office-medicaid-medicare/7891645001/

So, we need to understand just how completely weird and unsustainable, the political-economic process is actually becoming.  

If the USA whacks and hammers it's GDP growth, the entire economics of the place are at risk, to a much greater degree than most folks probably realize.    If you get fired from your job, and your income falls to zero, your mortgage payments remain.   If you decide not to make those payments, then there will be consequences from that decision - for someone, somewhere, right?

The USA Leftist government folks are already walking down this curious path of: "let's not pay our bills, eh!?"   These actions will have consequences.

Jacking up interest rates now, in a mis-guided attempt to "bring down inflation", actually risks provoking an extraordinary economic collapse in USA land.

This is unwise.  But perhaps it will provoke **regime change** in USA, in November, and the stupid Washington fuckwits who are bent on destroying the USA economy, can be removed from their catbird-seats of political power. 

Change is needed.  And one way or another - it not only *must* happen - it *will* happen, whatever your political beliefs are.

[ Sept. 22, 2022 ] - Inflation Will Inflate All Prices - Rarely make mkt calls - but this is just too blatantly obvious.  This is not 1974.  If the "inflation" phenomenon is as profound as it looks to be, then asset prices will not fall, they will rise, along with *all* other prices.   Jerome Powell is not a bad fellow - but he is a lawyer.  Vladimir Putin trained as a lawyer. (And then he became a Stasi spy.. which is where the bad began.)   I know a lot of people who are lawyers - they are not bad people.  But they are not creative thinkers, able to make critical intuititve mental leaps.  They are not "leapers", they are plodders.  They just aren't trained or even mentally disposed to jumping their "picture of the world" from where it is now, to where we will be.  It's curious.

Rates will have to move up to the 7 to 8 percent level - maybe 10 or 12 percent, to dial down the inflation we are going to have.  It will be *months* (maybe years?) before that happens here.   We will see prices of everything - including assets - continue to march higher.  Maybe a lot higher.

I can't see this not happening.  Too much fiscal push, and too much serial destruction, if we stop the gravy train of government money.   No one wants "National Socialism", but we are tracking fast towards "Social Nationalism", and the result may not too much different.

If the inflation is not "demand driven", then raising up interest rates will just *add* to the costs that everyone is facing, and so it will be **inflationary**.   Your mortgage costs go up 50%, and housing is 50% of your household budget, then you are going to insist on a pay-raise of 25%, or you will have to eat less and be hungry.

The rate-rises will program in more inflation, more quickly.   Combined with the "fiscal push" from the Democrats and Liberals (in USA & Canada respectively), where the political people are pushing out money-wealth to ensure smoothly running social policy, there is zero chance that inflation will moderate.

Will Governments reduce their spending, and bring their budgets back into some kind of possible (eventual) balance?  Will taxes be raised?  Unlikely.   And if taxes are raised, then that will be *inflationary* also, since tax-costs are just another *cost* that has to be absorbed by someone - and the someone facing the cost, will act to raise his/her wage or salary demands, so as to survive.  Or move towards crashing hard down into poverty.

The hardcore *inflation* will be seen as the least evil alternative.

Everything will go up in price - even stocks, if they pay reasonable dividends, and offer the prospect of the dividends also riding the rising inflationary train.

Toot, toot.  "All aboard!"  (Is this not the most likely scenario?  It is not 1931, and it is not 1974.)

Just to be clear:  We are not making a "Bull" case  - but at the risk of sounding like an old stock-broker - we suspect that financial and investment **survival** will be most effectively engineered by being invested in dividend-generating equity positions, which can be expected to ride-out the coming economic storms.   And maybe even a hot little (or not so little) war.

Remember that scene in "Battleship Potemkin", where the Cossacks ride down the citizens of Odessa, and kill the mother with the baby carriage on the Odessa waterfront steps?   How about a different ending, where the mom reaches in to the baby's carriage, pulls out a Schmeisser, and carefully sweeps fire at the murdering Russian soldiers and they and all the Cossacks are cut down, and tumble to the ground.  Call it the "American" ending.

A wise person writes his own script.  He does not rely on the plans and designs of others.

If you know about life and history, you know that "Life is Nicer with a Schmeisser", just like life is better with a "Kitty Full of Quality Equity."   

https://www.mp40.nl/index.php?page=hugo-schmeisser   

https://www.investors.com/etfs-and-funds/sectors/sp500-wells-fargo-heres-the-best-asset-to-own-during-inflation/

[ Sept. 21, 2022 ] - Smash Palace? - maybe not.  The news is so negative and so many worst-case scenarios are playing out, that it seems like a turn might be in order.  Old James R. Keene, one of the greatest speculators ever, is reported to have said that he "traded on intuition, like a woman", which is a curiously honest thing to say.   Sometimes, you just have to play an idea, insane as it seems.  We are long.

[ Sept. 20, 2022 ] - In for a Penny, In for a Pound - I think this is becoming quite silly.  Honestly, this is just nuts.  Stimulate the crap out of the global economy by pumping up reserve currency money supply, and then when the inflation appears (as any Economist kid from the Chicago School could have told you it would) deliberately crash the USA economy, with the fastest upward Federal bank-rate change since the New York Fed fiddled the discount rate back in 1929 - and caused the 1929 Great Market Crash).

Why exactly do we need to do this?? 

Perhaps the policy people will be siezed by a sudden burst of sanity, and may just do nothing.  Seriously, we are into real "Experimentum Periculosum" territory here. 

The Federal Reserve of the USA, might want to think about just doing nothing for a month or two, and avoid the prospect of "doing harm".   Harm is bad.   Aggregate demand is not out of control - just go look.  Folks are having trouble paying their bills, and evidence shows they are cutting back, and using their credit cards for living expenses.  Grasp this, lads.  If the inflation is *not* demand-driven, then dialing up interest-rates will *not* create a better situation.  It will just create a *worse* situation, as interest-linked costs are dialed up - causing folks to demand higher wages and salaries and fees, to make ends meet.   

Damaging the USA economy will not reduce inflation driven by supply-chain shortages, and Putin's idiotic insane terror-war in Ukraine.  Higher interest rates, will not lower food costs, caused by product shortages. 

At some point, sanity will take hold, and the virtue of a stability-seeking regime configuration, will become apparent.  Just dialing down M2 via the run-off of the Fed's balance sheet, should have a pretty solid effect on inflation.   Large rate-rises are probably not needed, and risk doing more harm than good.

If this view gains traction, this might be an inflection point in asset prices.  If you liked it at $92, you're gonna really like it at $72.   At least, that is the logic.

As if this market has any logic...

[ Sept. 17, 2022 ] - Federal Failures to Learn From History - The current crop of buffoons that dominate the global political stage, are perhaps unique in the historical context, as being the most serially unwise and profoundly stupid that folks alive today have had to endure.   As Earth citizens, we have to go back to the early 20th century post-World-War-One world, to see leaders as unwise and just plain bad as the crop we have now.  It's curious and rather sad, that we are back to having "Idiots in Power", like we did in the "bad old days."

It's different in the business & financial world.  The business and finance people of the early 20th century were almost all focused, honest, and very clever, despite what the Leftist media and profoundly Leftist academics in the University economics and political-science (fiction) departments like to assert.  They had to be, or they got crushed.  It was evolution in action, like it always is in business.  It is only in politics, where lies and deception can sustain a man (or woman!) for an entire lifetime career, while they do such great damage (like in Argentina, for example.)

Things are often not as they seem.  The best "Red Pill" of all time, is honest, focused historical research, which makes use of original documents (and ***not*** the secondary opinions written by most academics in Economics and History departments and "reporters" who work at news-generator organs, such as what used to be called "newspapers". )    It is hard work to find the truth.   It is often buried deep, and obscured by fabricated opinion, and mountains of worthless drivel.

The "Great Depression" that the USA endured, during the 1930's, was *directly* caused by the harsh and extreme interest-rate increases that the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (the USA central bank), began in April of 1928, when they raised interest rates (the Reserve "discount" rate) to 4%.  (In the fall and winter of 1924-1925, the rate had been 3%)   The New York Fed then continued in an aggressive campaign of rate rises, which reached their peak in September and October of 1929, with the rate at 6%.    This was an aggressive attempt to bring down the *inflation* in asset-prices that was of concern to USA Government economic managers.   They felt the New York Stock Market was "too highly priced", and wanted to bring down asset prices.

They succeeded.  Oh my, did they succeed.

Problem was, they (the USA Federal Reserve - the Central Bank of the USA), crashed the US Stock Market.  The high-rates, the loans being called and the resulting implosion of financial *wealth* caused an economic implosion which smashed the USA economy, and caused extreme economic dislocation, mass-poverty, more than 25% unemployment, and a "banking crisis", in which over 3000 USA small banks became insolvent, and went out of business, causing hundreds of thousands of USA citizen investors to lose most of their life savings.

This is not just our opinion.   This is what happened.

Ben Bernanke, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, and a clever Economist with a PhD who was the Chairman of the Federal Reserve from 2006 to 2014,  has said the same thing, in a speech he gave, back in 2002, to the Hoover Institute, on the ocassion of Milton Freidman's 90th birthday.

https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/great-depression

Our research indicates that the USA Federal Reserve did not just "make mistakes", we are also of the opinion that the actions of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York actually *caused* the stock-market crash of 1929, which triggered a recession, and then went further (in 1931) to exacerbate the downturn, and cause the Great Depression.

The clowns at the USA Federal Reserve did the same damn thing, again, in 1931, as things were become slightly more stable.  In August 1931, the New York Fed "discount rate"  was 1.50%, which was reasonable, given the economic storm which had been unleashed.  But the Fed jacked up rates to 3.50%, by November of 1931.  Clear?  From September 1931 to November of 1931, the "discount rate" was jacked up from 1.50% to 3.50%.  This was a MASSIVE increase in the cost of money, at a time when *EVERYONE* was hurting, loans either had been or were being called in, and financial wealth was being vapourized by falling asset prices on the Stock Market.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York basically blew up the USA economy.

Their action was a prime cause of the Stock Market asset-value collapse, in which the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell from over 335 in 1929, to just over 42, in early 1932. That is more than an 85% fall in the price of USA high-quality industrial stocks.  Many smaller companies simply went out of business, and failed.

People have long forgotten just how awful this collapse was.   This economic collapse, which was DRIVEN DELIBERATELY BY THE ACTIONS OF THE USA FEDERAL RESERVE economically destroyed an entire generation of people, created global mass-poverty, and set the stage for the Second World War, which was only ended by the use of nuclear weapons that were used to destroy two Japanese cities.

So, when retired Larry Summers asserted in his Bloomberg interview, that he knows of no example in History, where a rapid rate-rise by the USA central bank, had any "large costs", I have to admit that my head exploded, and the top of it blew a hole in the roof of my "Atomic Ranch"-style farmhouse.  (At least, that is what it felt like...)

A paper written about Federal Reserve history, documents Bernanke's comments:

Larry Summers either has brain problems, or is profoundly ignorant of history.  Maybe both.

Go look at the data-series.  Here it is:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M13009USM156NNBR

The above series, is probably the most imporant historical time-series the St. Louis Fed has. 

(Let me say a special "thank-you" to the St. Louis Federal Reserve, for maintaining and publishing it's most excellent time-series data.   The St. Louis Fed Data-Series have been very helpful.   This data has educated us, and this education has enriched us with valuable knowledge.   We have translated this knowledge in to action plans, and it has help make our lives better.   Thank-you for providing it. )

The Great Depression was an awful time, in both Canada and the USA.  It was not so bad in Canada, but it was harsh.  My grandfather had just purchased the family farm, from his siblings, and had taken out a large mortgage, in 1929, to make the purchase (the family farm had been left to him, and a bunch of his brothers and sisters.)   When the Depression happened, and the economy blew up, and prices started falling (and falling, and falling...), he was unable to meet the mortgage payments from the (much smaller) revenues the farm produce could be sold for. 

It was only because of sensible "forbearance rules" that were enacted, that he was able to keep the farm.  (The "Forbearance Rules" required that if a mortgage-holder could make *any* monthly payment at all, then that would be sufficient to allow the mortgage (and mortgagee!) to remain in place, and the unpaid amortization amount would be added to the principal.)    The 1929 mortgage did not get paid off, until the 1960's, when my father had become a practicing Dentist, and had sufficient funds to pay down the mortgage.   

And what is most amusing, is that the farm and farmhouse still exist, but my father sold them for $10,000 back in the 1960's, to a neighbour.   The farm (50 acres) and the farmhouse is probably worth $500,000 or more today.   Cheap real-estate, that can yield a revenue-stream, is a reasonable and effective hedge against the inflation that always seems to happen.

We bloody well need to learn from history.  

The current inflation is mostly structural, and due to stupid actions by very bad political leaders.  Interest rate increase will not fix this problem, and will *not* lower costs.  The solution that should be applied, along with *moderate* interest rate increases, is probably targeted removal of the psychotic mass-murdering crazy "Strong Leader" idiots like Vladimir Putin.  

That man should be target for removal, by any means possible.  And he should be removed.

Seriously, the UN should pass a resolution requiring Moscow forces to exit ALL Ukraine territory within 12 days.  If they fail to do so, then the UK, USA and NATO should begin a bombing campaign in Russia, starting with military instalations, and progressing rapidly to the power generation and water supplies of major Russian cities.  

But maybe, if we just act now, really quickly, and with real vigour, we might stand a damn good chance of catching the bastards with their pants down.

Maybe we should just pepper these bad guys with all the good technology we have.  Absolutely use every single item we have - even the secret stuff we cannot talk about.  It's gonna have to happen at some point.  So maybe now, is the right time to get this dirty job done.

:)

[ Sept. 16, 2022 ] - More Stupid Comments from People Who Should Bloody Well Know Better - It just keeps getting more silly and absurd in USA land...  Old former Treasury Secretary of the USA - Larry Summers - has just gone on record as saying: "I am aware of no major example in which the central bank reacted with excessive speed to inflation and a large cost was paid."  

Here is the Bloomberg article:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-16/summers-says-history-shows-no-example-of-hiking-rates-too-fast?srnd=markets-vp

(you may have to select "Reader view" or disable Javascript to see the article)

This Summers fellow actual said this.  Is he really this ignorant and clueless?

What about the "Great Depression of the 1930's"?  It was caused by a stock-market crash, that was triggered by a 50% hike in interest rates, from 4% to 6%, made by the USA Federal Reserve, in 1929.

In 1929, the Federal Reserve raised a key benchmark rate from 4% to 6%, because it was concerned that about asset-price inflation, in particular in the USA New York Stock Market.

Most of the investing public of USA was margined up to their eyebrows (and more, in some cases.)  In the 1920's, you could borrow up to 90% of the value of your stock portfolio, and invest that borrowed money into new stocks.  

When interest rates were JACKED UP 50% by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, in the late summer of 1929, from 4% to 6%, this 50 percent increase in the cost of money, provoked MANY investment and brokerage firms which had loaned out money, to call in their loans, as stock prices started falling.  Since the loans were backed by stock, which started falling in price, the whole process became quite automatic, (and very fast) as margin calls were made.   Investors had to put up more money, as their stock portfolio collateral fell in value, or their stocks were sold - into a falling market.  The process snowballed.

[ I decided to find the actual data numbers, and after a lot of searching the St. Louis Federal Reserve data-series, I found it.  It's clear.  The US Federal Reserve Bank of New York raised the discount rate from 4% in April of 1928, to 6%, in October of 1929. Here is the data series:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M13009USM156NNBR

This was a MASSIVE increase in the cost of borrowed money, and like today, this Federal Reserve rate was a benchmark that many financial firms used to set their loan rates.  This jump in rates, to stop asset-inflation, was the trigger for the 1929 Stock Market crash. In a 2002 speech to the Hoover Institute, Ben Bernanke even admitted this.]

The Federal Reserve raising interest rates from 4% to 6% in 1929 was the direct triggering cause of the 1929 New York Stock Market crash.  And the Stock Market Crash in 1929, essentially caused the "Great Depression" of the 1930's, as stocks fell and fell in value, until many had lost 80 to 90% of their peak 1929 prices.

So Larry, what da ya think?  Was the complete implosion of the US economy in the 1930's a "large cost?"

Summers is speaking like some kind of brain-dead idiot who does not even know his own country's (and the World''s!) financial history! 

What the hell is wrong with the Democrats in the USA?   Are they all insane or something?

They seem to regularly be saying the most absurd nonsense that is just plain not true.  This comment by Larry Summers certainly qualifies.   Can Summers really be this ignorant of his own nation's market history?

[ Sept. 15, 2022 ] - A Beautiful Analysis (That is Wrong...) - I am just seeing so much that is curious and strange - and wrong.  This is unique and perhaps is an occupational hazard of both reading and aging.   One has to ask, quietly.. "WTF?"

I do this about ten times a day now.  Often, the internal dialogue is more like: "WTF is this sh*t??".  But not always.  Here is a lovely example of some really fine analysis:

https://realinvestmentadvice.com/yields-are-defying-yesterdays-logic

The above attempts to explain the rising yield (falling price) of US Treasury bonds.  Author Michael Lebowitz has really done a nice paper, and offers an interesting explanation for why bond yields are not acting the way they have in the last 40 years (ie. trending down, down and down more... and then more still, until in some cases, they went negative, right?  Remember?)

Mr. Lebowitz is a smart guy, offering some fine, smart-guy advice.  His paper is a lovely example of fine analysis (he suggests falling US Treasury bond prices (rising yields) are driven by foreign selling, by nation-states seeking to stabilize their weakening currencies, and that this is temporary, and soon, yields will come back down. The nation-state central banks are using the dollars they get from bond sales to buy their own currencies, to prevent them from weakening further.  Clear?)

I think his analysis and paper are very well done.  The only problem, is that he is wrong.

I am really pretty sure he is wrong.   It is simply that the 8% (and more) inflation rate, regardless of what sort of voodoo is being used to suggest we actually know what "inflation expectations" in the future really are, is not likely a temporary phenomenon, and market participants know this.

People are not always stupid, all the time (to paraphrase old USA President Lincoln).

It is not necessary to search for complex, multi-factor, hidden-Imam or Central Banker currency crisis fear-driven strategies to explain rising yields on US Treasury bonds (falling bond prices). 

Bond yields simply **SUCK** at these current levels.  In a world of 8% inflation, getting a small 4% return on a Government Bond IS A REALLY AWFUL INVESTMENT.     It is just a bad, bad investment - and you have to PAY UP HARD to get the OVERVALUED US dollars to buy the nasty thing, and then you get paper denominated in an overvalued currency, which yields only half the inflation rate!   In a world where liquidity is drying up, this is just a bad trade. 

A rapidly rising US dollar is an ugly problem, yes, we grant that.  It is bad for many investors in many nations - even for the USA, as it makes their export products too expensive to acquire, for many.

But the 3 and 4 percent yields now on offer, are LESS THAN HALF what is needed, to make the investment even have a BREAK-EVEN real value.   You buy a T-bond, and you are certain to suffer the negative real return of an awful investment.

It really is that simple.

The world is making a transition, from easy-money, free-cash-for-everyone crazy+crazy multiplied by more crazy =>  really, really crazy economics, to a world of more rational economics, which are going to be characterized by one key word:  "SCARCITY".

Economics was often called the "Science of Scarcity".

And scarcity - old-fashioned "dearth" - is returning to our World.

This is happening for a variety of reasons - most of which are sad and bad.  And very typical and common in the sad sweep of human history.  The 4 Horsemen.  They are riding again.

If you now - as a trader - recognize that bonds ***still do not work right*** at these yield levels, given the obvious and accelerating inflation that is ***EVERYWHERE*** in ***EVERYTHING*** now, then a better trade, is maybe to sell your existing "financial asset" paper, and sit in CASH for a while, until the World re-normalizes to the one you expect to see.

And what will that world look like?   Take a hard look at 1974, and you can get a real good picture of what I fear we can expect.  I am almost certain of this.    We will see a "stagflation" world, of rising prices, falling consumption, rising unemployment and scarcity.  This process is just starting.

We are already seeing the runaway inflation.   Houses cost $1 million for something nice.  A can of ordinary paint at the hardware store is $85.  For a can of paint!   A small red-dot Bushnell optic for a rifle, that I could buy a few years ago for $150 Canadian, is now closer to $300.   Every thing seems to be up 10 to 20 percent or more, in the last couple of years.  Many products are not even available, unless acquired online and shipped in by Amazon.  But even that disruptive process, has reached it's economic limits, it is starting to look like.   Couriers are facing 50% increases in fuel prices.  Limits are appearing everywhere.  Cost are rising first, then product prices.

Years ago, we dumped the bond portfolio (that 60% equities and 40% bonds is toxic nonsense, used by salesmen to sell financial paper -  please learn this people!), and we bought northern real-estate, and have been beavering away on developing it.  It promises to be a 10-bagger, if we can move it along a bit further, and get a structure built.   A good investment *should* be a 10-bagger, (a gain of ten times initial costs), since it has to be that good, to make up for the ones that go to hell and die, right?  Every VC (venture capitalist) know this truth.  You can learn it too, if you read a bit.   You don't have to be Mr. Son of Softbank, and being Elon Musk is also difficult.

But even if you cannot be Elon Musk (and spend more time being "Elon Muck"...), you still are not required to be explicitly stupid, right?

Bonds are just a bad investment.  You get all the interest rate and return-OF-your-capital risk, plus the currency risk, and precious little benefit - a small, stinky, polluted little "Butler Creek" dribble of interest payments (from Bill Gross's book), and maybe, maybe if you are very lucky, you might even get your money back. 

"Fuck that Shit.", as we say so often, here in Canada.

Bond yields are RISING, because BONDS HAVE TO YIELD AT LEAST THE INFLATION RATE, TO BE VIABLE, RATIONAL INVESTMENTS, unless you are in Superman's crazy BIZZARO WORLD, where you can make money because yields are being driven down by financial engineering, liquidity floods, central-bank panic buying, private bank's capital reserve requirements, government-funding-frauds and a whole bunch of other curious schemes.

Please know this:  Bond yields at 4% are NOT ENOUGH if you are getting OFFICIAL inflation prints of more than 8%!   (We believe true inflation is much higher than the official numbers report, since government statisticians design-in "hedonic" adjustments to products, such as cars and other big-ticket items, so as to deliberately understate inflation.)

In the 1960's bonds were called:  "Financial Certificates of Confiscation".

Does no one anywhere read their economic history anymore?

Government bonds have to yield at LEAST 6% to make any sense in this current environment, unless we are certain to make a rapid jump back to a deflationary environment.   But deflation is not going to happen, in a world of rising scarcity.  That is why bond prices are STILL FALLING.  We are only roughly HALF-WAY THROUGH this painful reset event that is now playing out.

This is why we retain our long postions in our bank stocks.

We think the banks will do just fine, in a world of 6% to 8% yields.  Banks make their profit on fees and the spread between their assets (their loans) and their liabilities (their deposits).  Your loans will cost you 11% to 15% (like your VISA card today costs you 22% on a CASH ADVANCE).    And your deposits will still earn close to nothing.  Expect that.  The real-world economy does just fine with 20% or more interest rates.   Money is scarce for poor-people with bad credit scores, and it is priced accordingly.  It is also priced expensive for stupid people who don't pay back their loans on time, and on schedule.

So, given both history and modern current economic reality, we are pretty sure the world will be able to accommodate 10%+ interest rates.

The only place this new reality is not fully recognized, is in the distorted "Bond Market", which has become to be dominated by a bogus trans-national government scheme, designed to enrich the already rich, and allow corrupt and dishonest government scammers to run their out of control tax-and-spend games.  (Check out the Trudeau Liberal's latest unwise economic plans, if you doubt our assertion.)

TL;DR  -  Bond yields are going up, because they are still TOO LOW.

Sure, I sound like a hair-brained conspiracy theorist, I know.  What is amusing as hell, is that this really is the reality we are facing.  In a world of new scarcity, which also means a scarcity of real wealth, we will have to see either a runaway inflation (if the pandemic money-printing is continued), or a harsh, painful dial-back in consumption, production and economic activity, if rates-of-return on capital are allowed to rise to sane levels that rationally reward investors for investing and savers for saving.

Clear?

Bond yields are RISING (which means bond prices are FALLING) because bond prices are still too high, and need to be re-priced down to be economically ratonal investments, in this "new era" of collapsing levels of liquidity.  The money-supply of the global reserve currency (the US dollar) is being made to shrink.  This action will act to reduce prices of all financial assets.

The economy can use financial assets to create synthetic "wealth", like a Central Bank can create M1 and M2 money supply.  But the markets can also use financial assets to remove this same synthetic "wealth".   The effect typically is to reduce economic activity.   The key problem here, is that this financial wealth-creation, and it's economic effects is not linear, and neither is the inverse, the financial wealth-destruction. 

The simulation-response to money-supply increase, and financial-wealth-creation, is generally gradual.  Business people and consumers dial up their production and consumption slowly, whereas when money-supply is reduced, and/or financial wealth is erased, production & consumption can experience rapid response-actions, as existing projects, production-systems and consumption plans are "cut-back" or "axed".  Nothing is linear here.  Small changes can have big effects, and tripwires and threshold triggering pivotal-points are everywhere.

Investment action still does not work right yet, and lifting administered interest rates will not bring forth new energy supplies, which like 1973, is the trigger mechanism for the current inflation.   Energy prices are spiking, pretty much everywhere.   We all maybe have the Dancing Sickness, except now, we are dancing in a minefield. 

And interest-rate increases will not resolve supply-chain disruptions, or reduce the level of global conflicts, and restore lost production.  All that will happen, is that asset-prices will fall, and that will induce wealth-destruction, and an economic downturn.   Long term mortgage rates have doubled in the USA (3 percent to 6% in the last year), and tripled in Canada, in some cases.  This will hammer real-estate values and house prices.  We know this will happen, because it is already happening.  Easy prediction, yes?

So, we expect we are only maybe halfway thru this post-pandemic reset that is occuring.  Some pundits and billionaire investors are calling for an S&P-500 of around 3000, and yields to be much higher.  But this can be avoided.

The various Central Bankers should let the markets do some of the work of managing this reset.

What really matters, is the long-term interest rates, and those are set by the market-place, not by a bunch of guys in Washington or Ottawa.  Yields will rise, as bond prices need to come down, in order to make economic sense.    The Central Bankers should recall what the doctors are taught:  "First, do no harm."   That means pause a bit, and monitor just how fast the economy is adjusting to the withdrawal of the extreme money-supply expansion.   Just reducing the bond-purchases might dial things back enough, to reduce inflation pressures.

EIther way, we are in for some rising yields, no way around it, we suspect.  And we do not expect bond prices to rise, for quite a while.   Maybe not in our lifetimes.   The current inversion in the yield curve (with short rates 20 or 30 basis points above long rates in the USA) is also indicating that money is now tight, and can be expected to get tighter, over the next 6 to 12 months.   If this does NOT happen, the alternative may well be 20% (or more) yearly inflation rates. 

[ Sept. 14, 2022 ] - The Necessity of Victory - As I have admitted earlier, I am no longer objective about the invasion of Ukraine by Russia.  I want Russia to get defeated, absolutely and completely.   This must happen, even if extreme measures are required.   We - the World - must do what it takes.   

And in the link below, one can see how the military equipment donated by Western Allies, has been and is being used by the Ukrainian military, to achieve the necessary objective, and defend their own homeland:

https://mil.in.ua/en/articles/western-armored-vehicles-in-offensive-operation-in-the-kharkiv-region/

Like it or not, the World is at war with the Putinistas of the Russian Federation. We are not at war with the Russian people.  Just the idiots who support Putin, and this insane campaign to destroy the freedom of the European citizens of Ukraine.

The Markets:

The inflation print in the USA, at over 8%, with no sign of letting up, will force the USA Federal Reserve down a path that leads to the inversion of all they have done for the last several years.   Rates are being re-normalized too quickly, and may produce an ugly, non-linear reactive response.  Our AI models are negative, but we have elected to remain in the market, and continue to hold our long positions, as the dividend streams do not appear to be at risk.

This might even be a time for leverage, curiously.   If you view the market reaction as overdone, there is a case to be made, for adding to positions once prices reach dividend-yield levels that represent investments that are attractive in a moderate to high inllation environment.

But this is a dangerous strategy - rather like that game of Russian Roulette, as played in that film "The Deer Hunter".    I screened the 1962 MGM version of "Damion & Pythias" last nite.   It was a remarkably good film.   The Second World War made America strong - but it was strength gained with wisdom learned, which is rare in this World.  But you can see it in the wild range of the films that they produced, especially as the war memory receded into history, and became part of the culture.

We must try to continue to look *outward*, and not turn inward, and fight with our own people.   The later course ensures tragic error and self-destruction.    This is happening now, in Russia.  

The whole problem with games like "Russian Roulette", is that the outcome-cost exceeds all possible benefits, if the game is played long enough.

Nature Herself offers so many much-better-games that can be played, and for much greater gain.   Stupid, lethal games that end in certain disaster, should be avoided.

Is this not obvious?   Of course, the case for peace is best made after victory has been achieved, and this is undeniable.    But it is the son of the tyrant of Syracuse, who convinces his father to spare both Damion *and* Pythias, after Pythias has fought his way into the city, to offer himself for execution, in place of Damion.   Perhaps I am slightly unique, in knowing the background about the Cult of Pythagoras, which forms the key to the film's subtext plotline...  Our Western cultural world, came directly from this 4th century BC Greek world that is quite accurately depicted in the MGM film.  

In the film, and in the ancient story, the tyrant leader Dionysus of Syracuse relents, and frees both Damion and Pythias not only because his son requests this - but also because he wisely recognizes that he has an insufficient number of armed soldiers to put down a revolt against himself by his citizens.   Wisdom is forced - not just by honour, friendship and the heroic willingness to accept self-sacrifice that Pythias demonstrates, but also by the power that these heroic ideals have on the imagination and minds of the citizens of Syracuse.   The whole film is a clever explanation of how the power of an Idea, can change and reshape the World.

This is why these ancient stories were told, and continue to be told, despite routine attempts to corrupt and degrade the ideals that the stories represent.   

The ideas are real, and they have Power.   The ideas have greater power, than the tyrants have, and eventually, even the cruel tyrants must learn this trurth.   This is the source - the fountainhead - of wisdom.

[ Sept. 13, 2022 ] - The Cult of Strength is the Cause of Failure - When a people become hooked on the bogus "Cult of Strength", the probability of system failure rises rapidly.   Every take-off carries some risk.   Sharp turns near the ground are to be avoided, for many various reasons.   The Russian pilot's name was "Daniil".   He died in this crash, which is thought to have occured in occupied Crimea, on Sept. 11th, two days ago.  The A/C is an Su-25, the Russian version of the "Warhog", a type used for close-air-support and killing tanks and armored-vehicles.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dcFh4NlEa_U

In ancient times, War was described as the time when fathers bury their sons.  But nowadays, one may not even get a chance to do that - not even little bits or pieces are likely to be left after this kind of crash.

Putin's war against Ukraine is the stupidest, most needlessly foolish & destructive action that a political leader has ever taken in modern times.  At least it looks this way to me.  It is killing entire cities of peaceful Ukrainians, causing the deaths of tens of thousands of Russian young men, doing terrible damage to Russia and it's economy, harming all of Europe, and damaging the stability and freedom of the World.   

The man is a psychopath - or he is emulating one for his own political and personal gain.    He survives only because of Russia's love of the tragic "Cult of Strength", that has done such great damage to Russia and it's people, throughout it's history.

It is a madness.  There is no benefit here for any civilized person, anywhere.   Only a violence-addicted thief or criminal bandit could derive any gain from this insane action.    What is particularly awful, is the carefully co-ordinated killing of Russian energy company executives (and their families, in some cases) that Putin's FSB has inititated.  So far, his people appear to have murdered 8 different executives.  (Our source for this is the BBC, and other International press reports.)

Regardless of your own political beliefs - all can agree that this madness that is dominating the Russian Federation, must be ended, by any means possible.

What is curious, is to see just how worthless and ineffective are our trans-national organizations (like the United Nations, for example), that were supposed to be able to prevent this kind of Nation-State to Nation-State exercise in mass-murder and destructive conflict.

It shows just how little humans have progressed since ancient times. 

[ Sept. 12, 2022 ] - Jurassic Park - We have two large groups of turkeys that hang around the farm.  Each is dominated by a large male.   They keep seperate, and apparently have "eagle eyes", dashing for the forest or hedgerows, if they see anything that disturbs them (like our dog).  But since we don't shoot them, they have decided this is safe territory, and forage for food here regularly.    In the morning, when the weather is nice, and the sun comes up and illuminates these very large birds, as they graze for worms, seed and bugs in the alfalfa crop, the farmstead looks like Jurassic Park.  It is a strange sight.   It's not quite as dramatic as when I see the large black bears up at the "Northern Office", but it is still pretty impressive. 

Nature is rather amazing.

Charest got 16% of the Conservative Party vote, and Polievre got 68%.   I tried to explain the obvious necessity of this to an associate.   This was the right decision.  Charest may be a "nice fellow", but I suspect we are entering a time of danger, conflict and outright warfare.   There is just so much astonishingly stupid actions being carried out by so many Leftist nutjobs in positions of power and authority, that we are ripe for a real "revolution", in the very classical meaning of that word.    We need a man like Polievre.

We need a wholesale purge in Ottawa, where we sweep the "catbird seats" clean, and begin the process of healing a really angry nation.  

As I drive around Ontario, I see *many* cars and pickup trucks sporting small (or not so small) Canadian flags - the symbol now, of the "Truckers Protest" that was ended by Justin Trudeau's invoking of "Martial Law" and his governments arrest of the organizers, and the government sanctioned theft of their funds.   That action was unnecessary and grotesque.

And now the awful mass-murder at a Saskachewan Indian Reserve, shows clearly and tragically the utter idiotic insanity of the Trudeau approach to creating "Indigenous Homelands" in Canada - an ugly, foolish and profoundly stupid approach that is directly responsible for Indian crime being so common and so serious.    When the Indian brothers began their stabbing spree, the "first responder" was not an RCMP policeman, but was some dispute-resolution woman - and of course, she was killed by the out-of-control Indian criminals.

Out-of-control, indigenous-person murderers are part of Canada's history - just as is the RCMP who would track these bad persons down and dispatch them.    The history of Canada is violent, and has been sanitized by every generation, so that little truth remains visible today.   You can find the truth of the fight for Canada, in old books,  Our history was really violent.   And the most intense and over-the-top violence came from the indigenous peoples - the Indians.    They were *extremely* violent, and routinely carried out warfare on deliberately genocidal basis.   When I purchased my farm, I checked which Indian tribe had lived on the land - and it was land that was held by the "Neutrals" - who were a distinct national entity, who chose to remain independent from the Iroquois and Huron wars that characterized Ontario from the 1500s to the 1700s.   And what happened to the "Neutrals"?  They were systematically exterminated by both the Hurons and the Iroquois, who were angry that they refused to pick a side.

Indian Reserves are very bad idea, as the land is held in common.  This is a perfect algorithm for tribal conflict, and internal dispute, and outright warfare.  It also ensures poverty.

If you don't own your own property, then you do not do any maintenance on it.   I spent the last few days, repairing a dock.   It is insanely difficult work, literally back-breaking effort required to lift and position beams and rocks, while standing in water.   There is no way any sane human would work to improve and develop property he does not own,  if hecannot enjoy the the legal title to it, and extract benefits therefrom.

The Indian Reserve land should be deeded-out on a fee-simple basis to all "tribe members", and all "Indian Treaties" should be ended.   Brazil did this - there are whole cities in Brazil where all birth-records were destroyed, so that it is not provable whose families were from a slave, and who were from a European "nobleman".  This is the correct model.   Racist views can not be actionable, if all people are designated equal in the eyes of the law.

Canada needs to begin moving in this direction.   We cannot support a race-based system of land tenure, and it is time it was ended.

There should be no "special-status" Canadians.   

All our citizens, should have exactly the same equal rights and privilages under Canadian Law.   The "Indian Reserve" system, and the newer insanity of "Indigenous People's Homelands" which have semi-sovreign status, must be ended.    This current insanity that Justin Trudeau supports (and has championed, with tragic  intensity), is profoundly racist, unwise, economically foolish, and just plain a really very bad idea.    It will have to be ended, and we should begin this process now.

As things stand now, Canada is a crazy, absurdist "Jurassic Park", with an entire sub-class of "special-status" tribal folks who are not allowed to own their own property.  

This is madness, and it must end.

[ Sept. 8, 2022 ] - Locked to a Dwarf - We follow certain astronomical developements for reasons which are too involved to describe here.  This is an interesting paper, which describes two possible, rockly Earth-like planets, which orbit a nearby (32 parsecs, or roughly 104.3 light-years away) red-dwarf star.

https://www.aanda.org/articles/aa/pdf/forth/aa44041-22.pdf

The two planets are thought  to be tidally locked, so that their rotation is gravitationally synchronized with their orbital periods, so that the same hemisphere of the planet faces the cool star.  (Cool for a star, which is still damn hot).  The idea is that each planet is *maybe* in the HZ (Habitial Zone), close enough so that water is liquid, but not too close so that all the water is boiled away, along with maybe most of the atmosphere - the Goldilocks region - not too cold, not too hot.  Of course, complex climate-models have to be assumed, even to make these estimates - all of which are conjecture.   Probabilty estimates have to be used to link the photometric data to the planetary characteristics, etc.    But the photo-data numbers and the analysis looks not too bad.   What they found looks real.

I dislike papers with hundreds of authors, and are funded by a bunch of "Big Science" government moneybaggers, since they are usually impossible to read.  But this one (funded by NASA and European Agency folks), and with a list of authors that looks like a University telephone book, is not too bad.  They used the right software, and the analytic leaps and wild assumptions are reasonable.    Exoplanet research is hilarious - a perfect example of how big datasets with very tiny numeric variations can be mined to discover quite surprising results.   But it proves there are *many* star+planets orbital systems out in space, which resemble the one around our Sun.  And this fact alone is very useful information.  

Market Madness:

As for our market efforts - we are getting hammered badly, and remain long and fully invested. The AI models have all swung down, and if we were in a less extreme set of scenarios, we would exit and go to the sidelines.  But the current scenario is madness.    We are seeing a surprising and curious set of serial phenomenon that we have to call simply "madness".

We suspect the models are wrong, and we simply doubt that the North American and European nation-states will seek to engineer a catastrophic economic collapse.   The risks we see related to inflation remain.   Stocks are not always a hedge against inflation, but they can and should be, so we suspect they will be over the next 12 to 18 months.

What we are seeing, is market-driven reactive responses, based on sophisticated algorithmic models (which are not that different from the market dynamics of the late 1800's & early 1900's, when you had big technical/economic change + lots of very smart, risk-taking speculators in New York, all playing dangerous games.)   You end up with lots of wild volitile action, and crazy swings - a lot like the recent Bed, Bath and Beyond "Fractured Fairy Tale".  (The dead CFO on a New York sidewalk is a painful and dramatic touch, certainly. But it is also very much in keeping with history.)

I think we can survive this current storm.   Our holdings offer a generous dividend-stream, and this seems to be secure.  But like others, we are down nearly 20% this year, which is ugly and bad.  But if we bail now, we not only lock in the loss, but also lose all protection against runaway inflation.  And this has happened to us, several times before.  Holding on to the dividend-stream generator-process, has proved to be a successful market-survival strategy.  It pays the bills.

What we have learned also, is that our earlier "high-frequency" approach, was probably better.  But it can also cause one to miss a major move, and that can be a big problem - one needs the gains, to balance the costs of the down-swings.

Yes, we are all bound for the graveyard (and that is best-case scenario, remember!), but we are not going there just yet, so we hope our political gamesters in their power-positions do not seek to destroy the Western World prosperity just yet, also.

We should not have Governments that do unwise and unfair, foolish actions.

"Windfall taxes" on special situation companies that have been recently successful - eg. banks during the real-estate boom, and oil-and-gas companies during the insane Russian "war" - are completely wrong and illegitimate economic exercises.  Such silly action, to punish the successful, during their rare times of success, really should be avoided.  The gains made during the good times, are needed to allow passage through the storms of the bad times.

It is desperately important - critical really - that we (the Western World) get a new crop of political "leaders", in most nations, very soon.   We wish Liz Truss good luck in the UK.  I remember a story about a cake, baked for the English military garrison in Cairo, as the German Army was advancing across the North African desert, in WW-II.  The cake had a mis-translation of "God Bless the English Army" written on it, by the Egyptian cook.  The cake was presented to the Officer's Mess with the phrase:  "God Help the English Army" which history suggests He actually did.   Perhaps we can all pray in a similar manner, for newly minted UK Prime Minister Truss.

[ Sept. 7, 2022 ] - The World Must Stop Being Completely Silly - The world is being completely silly.  There are so many interesting opportunities.   Prices for good things, are becoming lower, and with the number of really stupid people in charge, in just about every location and every nation, the opportunities for folks who are not completely silly and behaving in an unwise manner, has grown significantly.

Putin - whom we used to like and respect - has shown himself to be an unwise monster.  Regardless of one's political views here, we all agree that Russia must lose it's "war", and lose it bady.   The invasion of Ukraine was illegal, sadistically evil, stupid, and will do more damage to Russia, than most folks realize.   The Russians around Putin now know this.  Putin is not a Statesman - he is just another in a long line of brutal and cruel gangsters, on par with Pablo Escobar, Al Capone and Bugsy Siegel.   The man will end his days in prison, if sanity and justice can prevail, or in a bunker, or in a hospital.  Maybe he will be like Stalin, and get a stroke, and be left alone for 24 hours to ensure he is offline forever.  On the day of his death, millions of people around the world will rejoice.  

What a sad legacy, for what could have been a fine and good person.   Russia must figure out how to escape from the tyranny he has created, and dismantle the new "Gulag State" he is constructing.   They must recognize the profound fraud of the "strongman".  Human strength and success comes from the brain, not from the fist.   The nation of  folks who put the first man in space, and built the first orbiting satellite, should understand this, better than any group of people.

What is good, is that Europe is coming to it's senses.  This crisis has shown Europeans that they need to stop wasting resources on foolish, Leftist-fraud economics, and build more nuclear power plants, and develop and deploy critical technology.  They need to manage their security better, and focus their efforts towards weapons production.   Europe should become more like America - rather than America becoming more like Europe.

As a retired NATO General said, so wisely:  "Time to put on your big-boy pants..."  and ensure that you are all ready to fight to protect and maintain the Western Cultural values that define what we all accept and require as civilized behaviour.  

We can all have fine and effective economic growth, in a safe, sane, low-inflation environment, and have energy and national security also - but we have to avoid being so fucking stupid.   The "Lie of the Left" needs to be understood for what it is - and rejected.

Wind-turbines are useless on calm-wind days, and solar-energy is maybe OK to charge a small car-battery, or keep a radio working - but it cannot run industry.   Europeans need to stop being fucking stupid - they should be *building* new nuclear power plants, not shutting them down. 

This is a sImple, obvious, and necessary requirement.

And money must be diverted from  idiotic "sit on your fat ass and get free money" social programs, and used to fund weapons manufacturing.   Life is what it is.  People are born, they live, and then they just die.   It might be time to bring old-fashioned *eugenics* back into vogue.   There is nothing wrong with using science to help raise the quality and sanity level of a national population.  This does not automatically lead to "death camps" and evil atrocity, like the Leftist fraudsters assert.  

And it's necessary to recognize the outright fraud of "Climate Change".   Even if global temperatures are rising (which we see no provable evidence of at all), these are most likely due to increases in solar output, and represent an opportunity for northern locations.  The various attempts to degrade economic growth,  and restrict economic opportunity and national economic development, in the name of bogus "Climate Change" goals, must be completely ended.   The climate here will change, and change radically, but over a *very long time scale*.  Our history shows half of North America was covered by glaciers, only 25,000 years ago.  We have our farm, on a series of eskers, drumlins and terminal moraines, which were the direct result of glacial activity.  To suggest that we can 'gain-ride" (dynamically alter) the large-scale climate patterns of our planet, is absurd and arrogant foolishness - and it wastes and diverts resources.  We need to put this "Climate Change" nonsense to bed, and focus on environmental transformation, not environmental "head-in-the-sand" economic restrictions driven by fictional pseudo-science political goals.

We need aggressive pro-development, transformative economic goals and objectives, which operate on enhancing the supply-side, not foolish and unwise restrictive policies that attempt to smother and degrade economic demand.

This must be done.  And we must create a new political environment, where these kinds of transformative policies become possible. 

We *must* make these changes happen, and eject the Leftist fraudsters from political power.

[ Sept. 6, 2022 ] - Bad People Doing Bad Things - This seems to characterize so many groups now - the criminal sector, the international situation, the various "indigenous communities" out West, the financial agents in many public corporations, the regulators and social-planners just about everywhere, the Chinese, the Russians, and the politicians in our Federal Government.  It is unclear just how to address the astonishing breakdown in sanity that seems to be underway just about everywhere.   Is this the result of the Covid-19 Lockdowns?    Or is there more going on?  We think there has to be more behind all this.  We are seeing an astonishing serial lack-of-wisdom in so many diverse areas, that it is a tad unbelievable.

But history has always suggested that "truth is stranger than fiction" - and more annoying also, it seems. 

[ Sept. 2, 2022 ] - It's Astounding, Time is Fleeting, Madness Takes Control - All true.   We are to do the "Time Warp" again?   Serial madness, and cereal shortage?   We study the events, and we are surprised at the lack of wisdom everywhere. 

But it does not have to be this way.

Poor China is blowing up it's "property" sector, except it really does not actually even have a "property" sector.  All "property" in China is owned by the Communist State.  A supposed "property owner" in China only has a 99-year lease-hold on his land or home or apartment.    This simple little legal fact, makes all the difference in the world.  "Owning property" is a bogus concept in China mainland.  

The current China "property" market  is bullshit.  

And this little fact, is key to the current shitstorm that the Chinese "property" market is now facing.

Until a new Government is able to take charge in China, and correctly deed out all the "leased land and leased houses" to their actual tenants, there will be further problems.  And things will get worse.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/chinas-top-developer-slides-rapidly-severe-depression-property-crisis-worsens

The solution to the current property mess in China is simple:  Create proper "fee-simple" correct Roman-style true land-holding.  These characteristics must be real, and be complete with full legal protection and proper, clear means of hypothecation (ie. you can pledge land as collateral for a loan of money).  The Chinese understand this concept well, and it was the foundation of their economy for thousands of years, just as it has been the foundation of the Western World's economy, for a similar period of time. 

This allows the State to tax property properly, and also encourages citizens to keep and maintain their property holdings - through thick and thin times, as a key source of familial, trans-generational wealth.   In this environment, all good people will pay their mortgages, protect their homes, and fight to save their cities, at all costs.    Legally sanctioned, direct, ownership-based  land-tenure is the starting point for all social cooperation and economic interaction in a civilized country.  This is the key basis for human social organization.   "Fences make good neighbours", as even our Poets have wisely said.

If you stop paying your mortgage, then you lose your property, and the bank auctions it off to someone who can and will pay the taxes and the mortgages on the holdings.  So the family, wisely, does all it can, to protect it's property holdings.   Property holdings are tangible and actionable base-line stores of familial wealth and opportunity.    A State entity that messes with this economic and social model, will fail.   This is proven by History.

This model works well.  It is the very foundational basis for civilization.

If the Chinese Governments could simply wake up to sanity and reality, and completely throw out the unwise, foolish, and socially awful lies of "Communism", they could engineer an immediate corrective solution to their current "property depression" crisis that is taking place.

You cannot "bullshit" your way to prosperity and wealth.  It has to be real - and this applies not just to private individuals, but also to State agents and Governments.   Every person and every company and every nation, eventually learns this simple truth.

[ Sept. 1, 2022 ] - Putin Suspected of Ordering Murder of Lukoil Chairman - The 67-year old executive, Ravil Maganov, Chairman of Lukoil, one of the world's largest Oil and Energy firms, has died after another Putin "defenestration".   This ugly trick of throwing political opponents out of high building windows, has a long tradition in the FSB (KGB).    It happens with such tragic regularity, that one wonders how and why the Russian people tolerate gangsters running the governments of their homeland.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62750584?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=KARANGA

Our source here is the BBC.   And European history...

https://allthatsinteresting.com/defenestration-of-prague

The death of Ravil Maganov is just one more good man gone, erased by Putin's sadists and killers who have taken control of Moscow and Russia.  Putin's body-count is growing daily.

This is insane.  Russia was doing well, Ukraine was doing well, and Europe was flowing wealth into Russia, as Russian companies exported Russian oil and gas to the world, at a good profit, which generated generous tax revenue for the Russian State, and the Russian people.   Both Ukraine and Russia were developing, and becoming prosperous.

But psychopathic murderer, Vladimir Putin, put an end to the fine peaceful life of both nations, and has turned Russia into a bleeding Hell-State, run by stone-evil killers, and murderous gangsters.

The recent string of murders of Russian business executives is significant.  There are *many* other very suspicious deaths, of key people - and their families.

https://www.world-today-news.com/the-son-of-the-russian-oligarch-protoseni-said-that-his-family-was-killed/

This is insanity on par with Hitler, in his last days in the Berlin Bunker.  Putin is a dangerous and unwell creature.   He is actively destroying Russia, and the peace of the World.

This is a very big problem. 

It needs to be fixed.   And it should be fixed by the Russians themselves.

And, sadly, Ex-president Gorbachev has died.  He was 91.  Putin will not attend his funeral.   Boris Yeltsin and Mikail Gorbachev transformed the ugly and brutal Soviet Union, into a modern Russian State.   They were great men, and did great deeds.  Even the UK press agrees with this.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62756196

[Aug. 31, 2022 ] - MAATADoSA - Ok, so if MAGA hats are "semi-fascist" (according to Biden!) and we are not supposed to try to "Make America Great Again", then perhaps the Democrats might sport "MAATADoSA" hats?  What is "MAATADoSA" you ask?...  "Make America Able To Actually Do Something Again".  Poor America seems unable to actually do anything much at all, anymore. 

It's Students are not able (or willing) to pay the debts they incurr for their education and the NASA folks cannot seem to launch a rocket, even if the whole project is FIVE YEARS behind schedule!

Now, since NASA is using Boeing Space Launch Systems, which if they use the same software that the Boeing aircraft use, this might actually be a good thing, since no one wants rockets that automatically fly into the ground with the astronauts on board, like the 737-Max-8 Boeing aircraft have shown the habit of doing.   So maybe the Artemis launch failure had to happen.

But so many things are really falling apart.  America not only failed horribly in Afghanistan, it has also successfully turned itself from a petroleum-products exporting nation, of big cars and prosperous people, into a petrol-poor nation of high fuel and electricity prices, and dependency on foreign oil supplies.  Again.   Just like under Jimmy Carter.  Wow.

This is an astonishing transition.   The Democrats are actually arguing that Making America Great, is "semi-fascist".   And they seem to be programming failure into all their actions.

And the mainstream media just lies.  It is obvious and evident.  Here is comment by someone who has documented this:  (from our "Economics 2021-2022" section:

http://www.gemesyscanada.com/448329755

These Democrats added *over TEN trillions* of printed (digital, really) dollars to the USA money supply, and then argued it would cause only "transitory" inflation.   We all said (as both Economists, and Historians) "Oh, for Fuck Sakes!!", but like our explanations on Covid-19 lab-leak "gain-of-function" Chinese virus-engineering research origins (funded by the USA!), we (and by that I mean all of the sane and rational people in the world, basically), were shut down by the vicious-idiot criminal a$$holes in the Left-supporting mainstream media, that make it their business to grease the lie-machinery that supports the Great Fraud of the Left that we are all now being hammered with.

And we think this argument disqualifies "Progressive" (which means Liar-Leftist) Democrats from being in any sort of government position, anywhere.   

The modern "Left" is a political entity that encourages and encompasses failure, fraud, and low-quality bad fucking.   Really.

The Democrats, and their ugly little evil-hobbit cousins, the "Liberals" in Canada, have become a extremely sick and sad joke.

"Greatness", prosperity, independence, and freedom, (as well as good-old-fashioned family-style fucking by mom and dad) - these used to be effective and actionable American values.  And the whole social model worked fine and good.   America literally saved the World.

The modern model of America is A COMPLETE STRANGE FAILURE on every single level, and it is just face-palming crazy.    America's borders have been thrown open to Latin American criminal gangs and hordes of desperate refugees, and the Democrat solution to this - seriously - was to "DEFUND THE POLICE".  

How can anyone, with an IQ over 80, even consider the sick, sad, psychosis of actually voting for a Leftist Democrat?

Trump is not a great choice.  We like Ron DeSantis of Florida.  But hells-bells, and Christ-with-smells (the old moniker of the Cato-church here), we beg America to try to fix itself, and course-correct.   And fuck, yeah, we beg the same thing from our population of stoned, drunk, dope-crazed nutjobs who reflex-vote "Lying Liberal", because they gave up on thinking and reading and learning and believing that they could make any real difference by voting.

Yeah, bit of a rant today.   We are watching everything fall apart, not just asset-values.    Since China has threatened to destroy the Starlink satellite array, then it looks like some action will have to be taken.   We will have to neutralize China.   Might have to be the private sector that does the job...  Since we have Fidel Castro's bastard "love-child" in control, who loves the Communists, we have - as Houston would say - a problem.

What we need in the good old USA, is a hard-arsed angry leader, who will act with clarity, focus, and strength-of-purpose.  When the Chinese attack Taiwan, we need Mr. President of USA, to just automatically rain an entire cloudburst of fusion devices down on all Chinese military targets.  

The monkey-f*ckers at the UN can then have a talkfest about that.

The Ukraine horror-show created by Russian sadists and psychopaths working for Putin, have shown the United Nations is a massive failure - a worthless, tragic fool's joke.     It will be up to the USA (and maybe the UK, us here, East Europe and Germany?) to save the world.   We cannot even count on the French, since Macron is an idiot who still sees Putin as a human being.  Big mistake.   Our leader guy here is a Communist sympathizer, sadly.  Until we can deal with that, we have been temporarily neutered.   It's ugly.  Really ugly all around.  We here have some very serious problems to solve.

Our reading of history, suggests that there is almost zero chance of avoiding a major conflict now.   Our AI models are still showing a slight bias for a rebound, but the trend is almost flat.  And this is not a good sign.  We think it implies a major (and dangerous) transition is coming. 

And given the wild, off-the-rails idiotic weird crash-and-burn failures we are seeing in USA-land and elsewhere around the World, we don't see sanity returning for a while.   Why the USA Federal Reserve thinks that engineering a massive economic crash is a good idea now here at this point, is beyond us.   They are doing more than enough just by running their "run-off" process, and shrinking their insanely bloated balance sheet.  To also hammer Americans with *double* the mortgage rates that they all had just last year, seems silly, over-the-top, and proves that Powell is just a common lawyer, way out of his depth.   Oh my.

[Aug. 29, 2022 ] - Shredded Tweet - The lovely and the awful, mixed together like debris from a storm.  We might be in for it.  The lack of wisdom at the level of the elite executive class, is as great as we have ever seen it.  One needs a long historical perspective to see wild foolishness as extreme as what we are seeing now.   And it seems to be happening everywhere.  Curious and lethal to all asset values, is our greatest concern. 

Raising costs of capital rapidly, now, at a time of maximum transition, will *add to* inflation, not reduce it.  The unwise and business-hostile economic policy choices being taken now, will also add to inflation, and also reduce risk-linked asset values.  Putin's stupid war will reduce global food-stocks at a time of reduced crop yields globally.   The elite are actually engineering mass-poverty.   This is the classical prescription for war.

And rather like the post-1929 period of the 1930's, or the 1914 time-frame after the Serbian "Black Hand" assassination of an "Arch-Duke', there is no requirement that we track down this stupid path.  We simply have a collection of not-wise decision makers who seemed determined to drive the various Ships of State onto various rocks, shoals, and reefs.    Wreckage seems to be in our collective future, and there does not seem to be much the average fellow can do about this.  

We seem to be looking at the: "Great Mean-Reversion to Scarcity, Foolishness, and Conflict", and have no operational choice in either the trend or the outcome.   Annoying.

[Aug. 26, 2022 ] - Time - It marches on.  And some time away has been good.  Maybe, time is almost up?   The August sun at the Lake was lovely.   Doing repairs on the dock, which was destroyed by the ice, last winter.  Took along some Writers Tears.    Read some old books.   Carried some wood,  Built some structure, and saw some fish.   It's still Summer.   But it is slipping away, fast.

Like we all are.

I read an interesting book about Gerard Mercator, the "cosmographer" and map-maker, of the 1500's, who created the distorted-but-very-useful "Mercator" projection, and used it in the first, proper and reasonably accurate map-of-the-world.    And I flipped back to this article on Peter Thiel, which I think makes tremendous key points, even though it is written by a woman who is not in any way, someone who supports Thiel's important and accurate world-view.

https://unherd.com/2022/07/peter-thiel-on-the-dangers-of-progress/

The article is *not* a screed on "the-dangers-of-progress", because it offers enough of Thiel's obvious and accurate picture-of-the-world, to indicate that the real concern is the "extreme-danger-of-not-having-progress", which is where we all are now.

We live in a world which is running retrograde.    I know this to be a fact, based on a lot of information that is too involved to offer here.

We have this accounting-illusion of progress.  We have extreme and consistant government financial "trickery" being used, to offer lots of free services to folks who are economic parasites. The problem with this approach to "social justice" is that it is very effectively "hollowing out" and quietly killing the "middle-class" in most Western societies.  The process is slow, and is not easily observable, especially since the numbers are being actively "rigged" to disguise and obfuscate what is happening.

But Thiel knows it, and so do others - you don't have to be a "Prince or a Lord" to see and feel what is taking place.

We have trashed the future.  There is no real progress - only the accounting-illusion of progress.  And this is why, in this future-world now mostly dominated by scarcity and intense competition for resources and opportunity, there will be rising levels of conflict.

The coming "Alphabet War" has already begun.   Here, it is political.  But in Russia and Ukraine, it is a bloody and violent shooting war.   In Europe, it is becoming first, a "Taxation War", and the first casualties, are likely to be European businesses based in Germany.

What can the average person do?   Invest wisely, and recognize the toxic nature of the information sources that one can obtain.   Not much else.   As a nation?  Build resilient response capability, and do it quickly, and cost-effectively.

[Aug. 20, 2022 ] - Hot, Steaming CNN Logs - Check this steaming material:  CNN reports that White House skanks "privately" express concern about supposedly classified material Trump had at his home.  Oh, so these are "privately expressed thoughts' - that just happen to end up on CNN?  How about that!   Do the persons in the White House, honestly think that the people of the USA are all super-stupid, and cannot see thru these obvious attempts at pumping out political attack dis-information?

https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/19/politics/white-house-concern-classified-information-mar-a-lago/index.html

Just read this piece of absurd and ugly nonsense.  It basically makes no sense.  It is just a bogus and abusive hit-piece against Trump.  It's the equivalent of putting cocaine in some guy's glove compartment of his car, and then calling the cops, giving them the license number, and saying the guy is a drug dealer.   FFS, Joe Biden.  Stop letting your idiot staff be so astonishingly stupid.  Your people are defecating on the American public.  You should stop them from doing this.  It degrades you, and damages your office.  

Maybe your people really did steal the election?  We never really believed that.  But this FBI raid and the resulting fallout, is just becoming simply insane. It makes Watergate look like nothing.

You and your hit-squads are maybe going to face prosecution, once the USA government changes.  You should consider the real risk of this, and act now to stop this insane political assault by mental lightweights who are seeking to damage American democracy and the operational continuity of American government.

The Biden White House assault against Trump - who received his classified security briefings as all ex-Presidents have -  is mindless, illegal and just plain stupid.   Now, Trump has no choice, he has to run.  The Republicans are now required to choose him, and he will have to win.  This is not a great outcome.  People will have to vote for Trump, just to restore order and operational sanity, and to correct the problems that exist at the FBI and the IRS.   This path did not need to be taken.   But the recent actions of the FBI and Garland have changed everything.

The first battles of the Alphabet War, will likely be entirely political, within Washington itself.  They will begin in November, assuming the election takes place.   Once these political problems are addressed, the bigger ones in the the wider world can be dealt with.

[Aug. 19, 2022 ] - Crimea River - With some "Writer's Tears", I suppose.  Bought a gift for a dear friend, maybe I get to have a drink or two with him this weekend.  Checked out the local Bed Bath and Beyond here, and it was nice, full of fine stuff for the home, and looked fine.  Price-ponits are high, and traffic was light.  The Marshall's next door was busier, and my significant other bought herself a pretty coat.  The products in BBBY are expensive, and this morning, pre-opening, the stock price is low, and has just  crashed from $18.55/shr close-price yesterday, to $10.51, down over 8 dollars per share, as I key this.   Pre-open action is big, and share price looks to crater.    If I were the management of BBBY, I would call up Jake Freeman, and hire him, and say "Get Busy.  Do it.   What should we do?" 

Retail is a really tough business, dictated by fashion and funding and the monetary conditions of consumer's wallets.   Really.   I saw a couple of things I would have bought at BBBY, except I have a stack of 4-figure property tax bills on my desk, and these induce the sprit of frugality to hover above me, like a large, black bird.    Plus, we have so much stuff, that any expenditure on anything, typically requires we trash something we currently have, if we buy anything new.   My old Protestant work ethic and my modern Japanese sense of "Mo-tai-nai" (which translates roughly as "Don't waste!"), induces me to limit consumption item aquisition..

These are very strange times.  We have never been in better shape financially, yet we feel poor.  We see a very different world around us, everywhere.  The Muslims which have settled here make fine citizens, but some days, it looks like Kabul - with all these women wearing burkas that hide their hair and/or faces, some even cover their entire bodies in shapeless bags.  Makes me want to wear body armour  (just kidding - I think...).  Our governments are acting to destroy what we were. and what we are.  Will they also attack our future?  We are actually very pro-immigration.  The immigrants benefit our nation, and expand it's strength and range of opportunities.   But they also mark clearly, our failure to correct the obvious problems in other lands.

The betrayal of Afghanistan by the Democrats in the USA, and by the Liberals here,  was the worst most absurd military defeat I ever saw in all of history - a surrender and *runaway-runaway* act of strange political cowardice that has damaged the Western World and the proactive world-culture of freedom.  We suspect history will document Biden in the USA, and Trudeau in Canada, as two of the very worst political leaders in all of human history - since they surrendered the centre of the "world-island" to the forces of darkness and pure evil that are the Taliban.   No "Peacekeeping" force, no attempt to maintain the place - just pure *runaway* cut-and-run cowardice and fraud, from dishonest, stupid political paltroons, who should be dragged from their offices and made to answer for their criminal stupidity.   One literally has to go back to the Fall of the Roman Empire to see such awful and tragic examples of failure and abandonment, as what Western forces did to the Afghan people.

So our failures, first as colonial overlords and then second, as technical consultants on nation-building, will cost us - and by us, we mean those of us who hold fast to the values of freedom that are the key beliefs of Western World culture.    We see the rise of the extemely dishonest and abusive political entity that is now Putin's Russia, and the beligerent new China of Xi, and we see the worst-case scenario of The Great Future of Failure that may lie before us.

It is a grim picture.

We see the "world-island" captured and subjegated by evil men who control murderous armies of barely literate thugs, who are given licence to bomb, kill, rape, steal and destroy everything around them.  The New Silk Road will be a highway of blood and horror and violence, as thug armies march, and kill and destroy the modern Western World and it's modern ideal of freedom.

This process is already happening, and is already rolling in Russian occupied Ukraine, in the direct military threats against Taiwan, and in Myanmar.    Japan has been rendered weak and defeated by the murder of Abe, and the UK has been badly damaged by the betrayal and defeat of Boris Johnson.  Europe is run by complete idiots who are shutting down their nuclear reactors, so their people can instead burn wood to heat their homes this winter, as the Russian gangsters shut down their gas supply. 

We see all the hard-won gains of the last 120 years, starting to run in reverse.

And we cannot escape the feeling that critical action is required to remove the complete fools and abusive idiots that currently dominate our political and government organs.  

The feeling just nags at many of us, quietly in the background, across many of our modern cultures, not just here in Canada or USA.  It is curious that *many* Japanese feel the same way, as do others in many other nations.   The French "Yellow Vest" protesters, the Dutch farmers,  the pro-Brexit folks in the UK, who saw the damage that was being done to England - all are fighting a common problem.  And also are the Americans, as the January 6th protesters in the USA, who saw an unwell, unwise old-man puppet, defeat a strong, and vigourous champion of American rights and American ideals, and concluded that the election was massively rigged to ensure this absurd outcome.  

Everywhere, the feeling builds that we are being betrayed and cheated.  The feeling warns us that we are being misled by fools and fraudsters and criminals, who seek to end all that our Western World View and Cultural models have created, over the last 200 years.  

Are we really under attack?

How can one conlude that we are not?  The very idea of male and female is under attack, and the multicoloured flag of sexual identity transposition, is waved in our face, and we are told that this is something we are supposed to be proud of.  Really?  How can anyone accept that sort of insane, mentally sick foolishness, and support it with political action?   One simply cannot. 

But it is not just the girlboys and the queers and the dykes and the trans-sanity folks.   There are explicit and direct operations being carried out everywhere, by dishonest political operatives, the purpose of which is to explictly damage and destroy our historical Western World political, economic and cultural traditions - most explicitly, the common culture of freedom.   Freedom itself is being attacked, and this is where it gets very dangerous.

The massive home-invasion raid on Donald Trump's Florida residence was ugly, wrong, dishonest and abusive, and it signals a new and vicious trend in the corrupt politics of the US Democratic Party.   The FBI stole the man's diplomatic passport.   This is beyond the pale. 

The Democrats are no longer political people who are to be trusted, as also nor are the "Liberal Party" folks in Canada.   Both entities are taking explicit actions to assault and degrade traditional freedoms that have historically characterized both nations, since their beginnings.

So, these curious times are upon us, and the fear and anger that these unwise actions by dishonest political operatives acting as government agents undertake, can only undermine our sense of national identiy and our collective sense of national freedom.  If we are not free, we are not anything, since we have since our history began, collectively defined ourselves this way - as free people, strong and free, living in a free country.   We can welcome any immigrants who want to live free lives, and breathe the sweet air of freedom.  And we are *all* immigrants here, in this New World.   No humans evolved here.  Every human here came from someone who made the long march to Freedom and Opportunity.  

But we must ensure that our own governments do not assault the very essense of what makes us what we are.  They must not degrade our freedom, that which defines what we are.

We are lately being attacked from the inside, curiously, by our own governments.   And this is not good.  We must correct this.

What is even more curious, is that this sense of betrayal is not unique to us here.  So many people feel this, and in so many different nations.   The common threat is the assault on our traditional freedoms.  Those who govern the State apparatus are turning into strange enemies right inside our own homelands, and they are attacking anyone and anything that threatens their abusive and dishonest actions.   Has the "Long Covid" damaged the little brains of our "leaders", perhaps?

Does this curious feeling of anger, betrayal and frustration affect the markets?   Of course it does, and it probably alters and drives changes in consumption patterns.   People worry less about the pillows and blankets on their beds, than they worry about their personal security, their finances, their sense of freedom and their children's chances for a good education and a viable economic future.

We *must* execute a "course-correction" in the modern, Western-culture World.  We have no choice but to do this.

It is important that the Republicans win in the USA.  They have not just to win, they have to win BIG, and completely crush and defeat the forces of darkness that threaten America from within, and seek to destroy it's greatness, and degrade and damage it's future.  There are unwise people in charge now.  Are these the kind of people that LIz Cheney represents?   A political party has to ensure operational loyalty, otherwise it cannot function at all.   So her political defeat was needed.

A nation has to have some critical, commonly agreed upon, ideals that it represents and stands for.  Otherwise it cannot stand successfully against the threats that the World will throw against it.  The gangster-leaders in China and Russia are being effective, and hone their people's sense of national identity, knowing it is a force.

We should be doing the same thing here.   The difference, of course, is that we can be honest, and can speak truthfully.

We must support and cherish and promote the ideals of Freedom.  It is the only thing that can hold us together here in the West, and allow us to defeat the dark forces we are always dealing with, and that we shall soon have to be fighting directly, and with all our efforts.

I honestly believe we can win the coming war.  Especially if we can be guided by the beauty and effectiveness of our fine weapons.   And our very greatest weapon, our most perfect & powerful weapon, is our shared belief and insistance upon, the common culture of Freedom, that runs like a clear and pure and beautiful river, through all of the developmental history of the Western World.

The future may well see  "The Alphabet War".   The Russians started it, with their use of the Roman "Z", as their signature glyph to describe their assault on Ukraine and it's Western ideals.  The Chinese use Pinyin glyphs on their hardware in their campaign against Taiwan.   And our big coalition, will not use symbols of stars or leaves or crosses, it might just use the old Roman Eagle, with "SPQR" below it.  The SPQR is the ancient, trans-national, Western World Roman symbol, which stands for honest, elected government (the Senate) allied with all the People, engaged in the ancient and necessary Roman tradition of preserving, protecting and extending the Western World culture of Freedom.  

We suspect that this global "Alphabet War" has already begun.  But of course, what really matters, is how it ends.   It must end in victory, for the Forces of Freedom.  Not just for us, but for everyone in this World, who insists upon living in Truth and in Freedom.

[Aug. 18, 2022 ] - How to Make $110 million in US Dollars, While You Are Working on Your  Degree (Not Your Tan), In the Peoples Republic of Californistan.  In Three Weeks.  Really. - The story is in the Financial Times, which is behind the big paywall, but here is the ZeroHedge summary, courtesy of Tyler Durden:

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/sureal-story-20-year-old-student-acquires-6-bed-bath-beyond-makes-110-million-3-weeks

I love this story.  Now be clear, the kid got $25 million from his Dad.  For all lads and ladies starting out, the "Bank of Dad" (or Mom), is the best place to borrow the funds needed to do your first big swinging trade.   My two best trades were: #1: self-funded by my first big consulting gig, and by a take-back mortgage from the vendor and #2: the returns from the first trade, plus a quite fair-sized chuck from the Bank of Dad, advanced against inheritance (another damn good idea, all families should consider).

The first trade paid off over 10 times (but it took 11 years, to be honest), and the second trade has been even better (and is where we live now - the Farm - which probably has a similar payoff level, but at double the time horizon - so far...)  

So don't envy or be critical of this kid.  He has done the right thing, in the right way, and at the right time of his life.  When you are young, is the time to swing really hard for the damn fence.   If you whiff, and strike out, you can recover without too much harm.   Bravo to him.   We salute Jake Freeman, and wish him well, and hope his future efforts (and the results of his Fund!) meet with the same level of success.  We like to see young guys win, and win big.

This is why the Free World exists - to allow this sort of thing to be possible.   Jake Freeman used leverage and options, to aquire roughly 6% of BBBY stock, and his little "Hedged Fund", even sent a detailed letter to the BBBY management, suggesting how they might dig themselves out of the hole they are now in.

This kid's prescription is not bullshit.  It looks sound.  It reminds me of what a fellow named: Horace Greely Hjalmar Schacht did to save his country from the outright economic insanity into which it had sunk.  Too complicated to explain here, but absolutely doable (since it really was done), and is not that different from the debt-paydown, restructuring of the debt at a lower rate, and the issuance of convertable shares (which become attractive to investors, since they offer a real chance to participate in, and profit by, an honest, real turnaround.  And a turnaround of Bed Bath and Beyond is possible, given today's inflationary environment, labour market, and household formation rate.   USA is not Japan.   It just is not.   BBBY turnaround is not assured, but it still appears possible.

Tyler Durden writes a fair bit of snotty tripe around what Jake Freeman did,  (is Dyler jealous?)  but it looks perfectly sensible and valid, since letting a big-name retail operation crash and burn needlessly, especially given the historical characteristics of what a post-pandemic world can look like, is silly, and stopping-the-silly can often be nicely profitable.

And kids do well in crazy times.  Larry Livingston did pretty well, as I recall.  And so did Mr. W. Buffet.  (I once thought to participate in the turnaround of a not-too-shabby local transport company, and I bought thousands of their shares at around $2.00.  But I was stupid, and young and wrong.  The management and their bankers, just flushed the stockholders down the toilet, and after losing half my money, I bailed, and watched the stock go to "zero", in the typical bullshit-style restructurings that are all in vogue now.

We should respect and make use of old-fashioned bankruptcy, where new, young managements can acquire good assets on the cheap.   We do exactly the wrong thing with these modern restructurings, where nothing changes, and managment and unions get bailed out and stockholders get erased - like was executed for GM, where the stockholders ended up with garbage called "Motors Corp..." crap something, and the Management, the unions and the government weasels all did fine, and new GM shares were sold to fat-money boys, and the honest, true company owners got ruined.   That whole operation was an ugly, government-sanctioned, corrupt fraud.   (Yes, I owned some original GM shares.  Still pisses me off.  )

I was surprised when Tory guy Jim Flaharty died shortly after resigning from being Canada Finance Minister.   ("Maybe there really is a God?")   His wife was a Liberal member for Oshawa, which had the big GM plant,  which dialed back production, and closed completely in 2019.  It re-opened two years later, in 2021, to make very high-priced pickup trucks for wealthy people.  But the original owners of GM got nothing but income-tax bills.  All benefits went to GM management and the Unifor union.

That ugly and awful GM nonsense may have cost the Tories the subsequent election, because the Stephen Harper Government sure lost me and many others when the dirty scam was run to bail GM with billions of dollars taxpayer money - and erase completely the share values of the shareholders who actually owned the company.   Filthy GM should have been bankrupted honestly, and it's assets and lands auctioned off to honest businessmen.   And the workers might still kept their jobs, in a proper, new, self-financing company, instead of a everyone losing in a government scam scheme that raped the Treasury.  

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/canadian-taxpayers-lose-35-billion-on-2009-bailout-of-auto-firms/article23828543/

The taxpayers of Canada got fucked over to the tune of over 3.5 billion Canadian dollars in that scam.  It was a shameful thing for a Conservative Government to do, and it should not have been done.  It was theft from the public Treasury, plain and simple, and it was done to secure political advantage for the Finance Minister, and his family.  And all political parties were part of this awful scheme.  It was wrong and shameful.   The modern GM truck plant that operates now in Oshawa was built on the backs of ruined shareholders and cheated Canadian taxpayers.  

If the Stock Exchange and the regulators do not get in bed with corrupt government toads, and set out to ensure that the stock-holders get cheated and kicked to the curb and left with nothing, then legitimate restructurings are possible, and can work - usually IFF ("if and only if" - a term from mathematics), the management is replaced with intellegent, honest-and-honorable men and women.  Sometimes this can happen.  But often does not happen.  (Eg. Nortel.  One group of thieves and fraudsters were replaced by yet another group of thieves and fraudsters.  Tragic and ugly.  The company failed, in an awful and spectacular manner.  Their hardware was good, their software was excellent.  I know this for certain.  Their management were unconvicted criminals.  They were put on trial.  But it was so sad the court case to prosecute the Nortel managment was not successful.   It's very hard to prove corporate security fraud. )   We still have Nortel preferred shares (worth nothing, of course), in one of our portfolios.  The company was a national jewel, and it's patent portfolio was sold for over $4 billion dollars.   The company had real value.  But the managment who ruined Nortel, were either worthless idiots and/or pocket-filling criminal fraudsters.   Probably both.  Sad.

Know this:  Over time, the quality of company management has a terrible tendency to degrade and disapate and lose focus and ability.  This is so common, and is such a profound and oft-repeated trend, you can seriously make book on it.  And that is what the short-sellers do.  And usually, they win.

But not always.

Right now, I am off to buy some towels, and take a little look-see, at just how bad the local BBBY really is.   BBBY is not Target.  Target failed when it came here.    BBBY has done not too badly in Canada.  They are not IKEA, but they are OK.  We spent over $200 at the nearest IKEA last week.   Home improvement and home products are selling well.  Really well.     BBBY does not have to die.

We cannot quite figure out how and why things have gotten so very strange in the dear old USA, where family and good friends live.  The pandemic lockdowns perhaps made many people crazy, and recovery is still taking place. 

On balance, we now suspect the lockdowns were unwise.   And we fear they were a "gateway drug" for corrupt and abusive government officials (of which there seem to be an awful lot, surprisingly.)  Free societies work better, when there is freedom.  And Ukraine shows us that folks prefer freedom, even if enemy missiles are raining from the sky, rather than life inside non-free "Gulag Nations" where FSB Secret Police can drag you to prison and then torture and murder you.   Not surpising, is this phenomenon.  (London, in the UK, showed us this also, back in the early 1940's)

Freedom is a good and wonderful thing.  History suggests it's price is blood and conflict - on a curiously regular basis.  The USA Democrats (and the Canada Liberals) are playing very dangerous games, these days.  Both political parties seem to have gone off the rails, rather quite badly, and become serious abusers of freedom.

We want USA to stay strong, and vote Republican, and then work bi-partisan with the remaining sane Democrats, to solve the problems.   The Looney Left "Safety Nazi" types, the SJW's and the Lockdownistas, should be hived-off into their own little group of "progressive" nutjobs, who can then fight with themselves over non-issues and silly fake stuff.  Like our NDP often does.  I hope someday, we can put them all on the "B-Ark" and be done with them.

Dear America...  We cheer for you, and wish you well.  Just make sure you keep your 2nd (and 1st!) Amendments to your Constitution.  Both are really, really goddamn good ideas! 

[Aug. 17, 2022 ] - AI is Giving Another Insane Projection - Check out the "Trading Notes" section, for the current (insane?) AI projection plot of our testbed security - which we hold in a big way.  Real money, two seperate portfolios.  We avoid diversification, since we have found best results seem to be from concentration, and modern volatility obviates most of the benefits of risk-spreading.  Nowadays, you maybe want to put most of your assets into your best idea.

Insane strategy, and insane forecast, for insane times.  Also, the public letter from the CEO of Smith and Wesson, is in the "Glorious Good Guns" section.  Read it.  It's one page, and helps understand the absurd madness underway in the USA.

[ Aug. 16, 2022 ] - The Red Pill - Really.  - I had long two-hour conversation about politics with a good friend/close associate.  Both he and his wife have joined the Conservative Party, to help get a former Quebec Liberal Premier to become head of the Party.  This Tory leadership race is a big, big deal for Canada.  Our current national PM is not good, and he and his Party need tot be defeated. 

The "Red Pill" is the pill you take, to see the World accurately, as it really is.  The "Blue Pill" is the pill which confers happy delusion, and ignorance to what is really happening.  The Leftist Media and TV and Radio, have been feeding us "Blue Pills" of sweet, seductive delusion, since the beginning of the 20th century.  The Red Pill is bad tasting, and the truth of things, is often ugly, nasty and painful.

My dear friend, and his wife (both very successful, very wealthy lawyers) have been "Red Pilled."  They see now the danger idiot-wokeness politics represents.  They have children.   This is bloody wonderful - except they still hate Trump and MAGA and think Trump and MAGA are evil.   (They only got the local Canadian Red Pill, for now.)   This is so, so curious.  They also don't like the Tory guy that I like - Pierre Poilievre (pronounced: Pea - Air - Polly - ev - rah) - who is a good man, and who must win the leadership, or we are all screwed, IMHO. 

The argument is that Charest should win, because he is a middle-of-the-road, make-no-waves, former Liberal, and former Tory who was a Minister in Brian Mulroney's cabinet, long ago.   Jean Charest (pronounced: Zshawn - Shar - rest) has support from "Red Tories"  (basically, neo-leftists who believe in fiscal responsibility, but also funding lots and lots of "social programs" ).  He is viewed by "pundits" (yes, I know...), as being the best chance for the Conservatives to retake the Commons, and form the next Government, and rid us of Fidel Castro's son (Ha ha, just joking.  Maybe.)  who is current  PM, and who is widely hated by many for a long list of reasons.

We believe that Poilievre is a better choice, since he represents real actual new ideas and honest change.  He is a "Reform" style Conservative, a very unique thing in Canadian politics.  He is a good and honest person, and he does not respect Trudeau.   (He is a good and honourable fellow.)   The "pundits" say he cannot defeat Trudeau, because Canadians are risk-averse pussies, and will not vote for change.  I disagree.  But we argue about future events.  Silly.  Here is media note on Poilievre, and they make him look like a Westerner, even though he is from Ontario.  Typical media bullshit trick (they use a picture of him from an Alberta BBQ).

https://toronto.citynews.ca/2022/08/10/pierre-poilievre-conservative-leader/

Suddenly, it is very serious here.  Trudeau has begun a process to ban handguns in Canada, which are *really* very tightly controlled already.  It is pure politics, and will make Canada a *much* more dangerous place, and a *much* more violent society.  It is a very, very bad idea.  And Trudeau and his government have been chock-full of very bad ideas, which have become very bad laws.

Politics and Economics are like two evil twins who are co-joined.  Economics explains why sellers cluster together, and politics is just a form of trade.  But if all the politicals are selling the same steaming bag-of-dung, people disengage, knowing they cannot change anything by their actions.  Political parties must champion different ideas.  That's how we get progress.  People have to live and act in real Truth, not wallow in political delusion and be victims all the time of class-system fraud and economic fairy-tales.

So, I am happy to see my two dear friends get "Red Pilled".  But they have only *partly* chosen to live in truth.  It's still basic politics - if we put Charest in as Tory Leader, we offer the voters "same shit, different day" - no real change in thinking or direction.  More Liberal tax-and-spend and social ballshots that we less-and-less can afford, without further raising taxes.  Income tax is already insane here - and we also pay 13% vigourish on every single farking economic transaction - the HST (used to be the GST, until it was "harmonized" with the RST, the Provincial Retail Sales Tax.)  Foreign visitors call it the "Holy Shit Tax", because they say "Holy Shit!" when they see the 13% added to their bill for anything they buy in Ontario Canada

Below is the best, most important article written by a USA reporter/analyst in the last 30 years.  Read it.  (Sasha used to be Democrat.)

https://sashastone.substack.com/p/the-raid-that-red-pilled-america#details

See, I am not a Trump fan.  And I support (a lot) Biden's policy on Ukraine.  Putin is a very real threat to global peace, security and the future of humans on planet Earth.  But maybe Trump - even if he is crazy, angry, and plain-speaking - might be a better war-leader than Biden.  Biden and Harris and the Democrats are saying and doing insane, stupid, illegal and unwise things.  Having the FBI do a home-invasion raid on Trump's private home in Florida, is wrong, wrong, wrong.  The whole "January 6th" witch-hunt is ugly, stupid, abusive and wrong.  The "Woke Left" are as dangerous a threat to America, as the Russian Communists were, when they had nuclear missiles computer-aimed at USA and Canada, and my Dad (former bomber pilot and then a medical guy) went up to do a short auxillary tour of duty on the DEW Line, back in 1965.  The DEW-line was a good idea, as it meant nuclear missile surprise attack would be impossible.  I was a nuclear kid from a nuclear family.   My Mom's cousin was also a Nuclear Engineer, who invented a machine to do first-stage uranium enrichment, during WWII.  (So when I build working fusion reactors, N2 TEA lasers, and blather on about fissile devices, I am kinda just following the family traditions of being a nuclear techster & a shit-disturber.  Really.)

I am not a fan of Trump, but if I were a USA citizen, (like some of my family folk are), I would be a card-carrying registered Republican, and would own a MAGA hat.  Get used to it.  No choice, really.  And I might have even voted for Obama, since Obama was young, and smart, and his "surge" in Afghanistan actually worked really goddamn well.  What the fuck is wrong with today's Democrats?  Are they *all* "Blue Pill" eaters??   Socialism is fucking stupid, men cannot become women, and kids should be wisely guided, but also left alone to grow up choose their own paths.  FFS.

When Trump was USA President, we had lots of oil and gas, prices were stable, there was peace and security in the World, there was no War, China was listing it's joint-stock companies on the New York stock exchange, the taxes were low, and the economy - everywhere - was growing.  There were problems, but things were OK.   Now, we have clowns and tax-and-spend fools running Washington and the USA, we have almost 10% inflation (which is likely to grow, unless we smash growth with high-rates), we are on (really) the brink of nuclear war (really), and both Russia and China recognize the extreme weakness and **WOKEness** of a mis-managed USA, and their meglomaniac leaders know this is the best chance they will ever get, to run "smash-and-grab" operations against their neighbours, without anyone offering any kind of challenge.  So, they are doing just that. 

The Left is so full of Lies.   The Washington Post and the Twitter bot-and-censorship thing are media machines that exist to pump sweet lies  (my partner calls these people: "Flower-field thinkers in La-La happy land".  Pretty good translation, eh?)  The Leftist media pump out delusions every day, day in and day out - onto the screens of the Blue-Pilled Democrat supporters.  

This is just nuts.   It is crazy-time madness, and it actually has lots of historical examples. 

Caesar was feared and hated, and was threatened, and then, was eventually murdered.   Trump is not Caesar - but neither is old Joe Biden.  Trump at least tried to be a leader, and not a puppet.   And that fool running the USA Justice Department is a buffoon and a supporter of - if not technically illegal actions - certainly deeply unwise, very bad actions.  He should be removed, and soon.  Biden should replace this poor choice, to try to ensure DOJ retains some respect and the confidence of the American people.

Today, at the farm, our neighbours are spreading manure.  It is hot.  It smells bad.  I told my partner: "Honey, the smell is so bad, it is like chewing on shit!"   She made a face and laughed.

Taking the Red Pill makes reading the Leftist news and watching the Leftist Media feel (and taste?) similar.  It's like consuming dung.

I tell my American friends, they might want to vote Republican, just to protect and sustain the USA Republic.  Because the Democrats are acting insane, and are doing bad things.

The FBI is now widely seen (rather like the IRS) as a potential direct threat to every living American in his or her own home.  If they can be wired-up to attack a former President whose Party is leading in the polls, they can certainly come and simply kill you.  Like they did at Waco, Texas to the Davidians, and to that fellow at Ruby Ridge.   Remember that?  The FBI were a problem.  And now, they are a bigger problem.  The DOJ is sending them on political hits.    There needs to be wholesale cleaning at both the USA Department of Justice, and at the FBI.  It won't likely happen under the Bidenistas.

Wake up, America.  Yes, the Washington politics is not nice, and it smells even worse, with Leftist folks in charge at every level, filling their pockets with your tax money.  It's like a field of steaming manure now.  But if you can vote for real change in November, you can maybe get a new crop of better people to begin to grow in the place where the stinking field of hot shit is now.

Such is the Benefit and Cost of Red Pill Enlightenment.   Nothing is free.  But living in truth is the only rational choice.  Political lies are like worms in your food.  People and nations don't operate correctly, on a diet of worms.

[ Aug. 15, 2022 ] - US Democrat Party Appears to Be Insane - So, be careful with American investments.  The Democrats have just handed Intel $50 billion in tax incentives to build a new chip plant (Intel really needs money?  Really?)  and has passed an insane piece of Theatre of the Absurd legislation called "The Inflation Reduction Act", which will give poor people free money to pay their utility bills, will spend $80 billion on hiring an entire *army* of armed IRS tax inspectors, will spend a whole bunch of money on "climate change initiatives" (free money for more folks who know how to suck at the trough for it), free money for more poor people to let them get presciptions drugs below costs of development and production, and special *funding* to cut health-care premiums.   And these clowns - these strange curious political people who operate in Washington - these people called this $437 billion bucket of economic slush and political kickback - the "Inflation Reduction Act", which is simply insane.

It is seriously, honestly insane.  Even the Wharton School at Univ. of Pennsylvania says this massive expenditure of foolishness will likely *raise* inflation, not lower it.  But hey, the difference is statistically close enough to zero, that we could call it zero... maybe.  (Hilarious, really.)

Oh, and of course, there will be expanded and increased taxes on corporations, to pay for this.  And that $80 billion for the IRS, too.  (Please Note, America:  Expect the Tax Men to come calling.  Again.  And again.  And again, taxation without end.) 

How did the Demorats come up with this Bucket of Money-Slush?  They polled folks.  Mr. Ron Klain, the White House Chief of Staff, said: (and we quote, from Bloomberg): "Our internal polling shows that messages touting the cost-lowering features of the *Inflation Reduction Act* - lowering health care costs, prescription drug costs, and utility bills -- are among the highest testing messages ever."  Well for fuck sakes, what did they expect?  How was the survey run?  Did they ask: "Would you like to Vote Republican, and pay market-prices for drugs and doctor visits, or would you like to Vote Democrat and have us give you free money to pay your bills?"    Something like that, maybe? 

Talk about bad data.  Really.  Bad.  Data.

Now, Joe Biden and these Democrat Clowns are going on a multi-state campaign tour - more than 35 events in the next few weeks to promote this absurd, insane nonsense.

This is pure, classical insanity.  I am dead serious here.  This is madness.

Are the American people completely fucking stupid?   I don't think so.   Old Granny Yellen has said the $80 billion for the IRS and it's new armed agents, will not be used to terrorize ordinary middle-class Americans.   But that is just air moving over her old-lady lips.  It has no force of law, and since it is a comment about future intention, it has no operational value.  It is probably just political cover-talk.  We will have to wait, to prove it to be a lie.

But the Democrats are actually running their campaign on this ugly tax-and-kickback-spend big-money taxation and spending law.

We look at this and think:  Wow.  The Democrats might have cut taxes, or at least done nothing, and promised to "hold the line on out-of-control government spending" or something like that.  That way, they could have looked like moderate, prudent fiscal managers, even if they were not really.  But with this slime-laden pot-of-slush and kickbacks, funded by $80 billion in new money for the IRS and for armed IRS agents, combined with increased taxes on corporations, the Democrat Clowns have proven to anyone with an IQ over 80, that they are unfit to manage money and govern - much less manage and govern the biggest, and best nation in the World.

The Democrats appear to be insane.  They honestly believe that touting this bogus-named law, (It really should have been called: "The Inflation and Taxation Act") which is just a grab-bucket of tax and kickback-spending, that they are going to buy votes from the American people.

We think that Americans are not as stupid as the Democrats are counting on.  Not now, after all this pandemic nonsense.

We are pretty sure that the Republicans will find that this idiotic legislation helps them in November.   Having the Democrats in control of everything, is just not good for American economics, and certainly not for the American people. 

Even if you normally vote Democrat, you might want to support your local Republican guy or gal, in November.     Sanity needs to be let back into the building.  The Demorats have sent her packing, and this is just not good.  Not good at all.

[ Aug. 14, 2022 ] - Threat Assessment & the AI-is-Lucifer Meme - Really?  AI as the new "Digital Anti-Christ?"  See, this is what worries me.  People are just getting cross-the-line crazy, even the sane folk out in the lovely country, away from the cities, who should really know better.  Or, maybe they are just becoming more extreme, in order to harvest clicks, and keep some google-ad-revenue dribbling in?  Unclear.  But check this most interesting note: 

https://alt-market.us/artificial-intelligence-a-secular-look-at-the-digital-antichrist/

and this one:

https://theconversation.com/artificial-intelligence-and-algorithmic-irresponsibility-the-devil-in-the-machine-157128

List goes on.  Now, the authors make a lot of good points.  The risk - the main threat - from AI, is it's ability to allow effective mass-monitoring of all human action, to be made a reality.  That's the old "1984" view-screen in every house nightmare.  Winston & Julia try to find a place to have some old-style normie love-making, contrary to "Party Doctrine", and the view-screen gets uncovered in their trysting-spot, and they are imprisioned, tortured, they betray each other, and are destroyed by the State.  This is the Orwellian (and Soviet-Russian, remember) nightmare.

AI technology and the mass "internet of things" can make this nightmare a reality - as it already is beginning to, in China and Russia, where masses of people are being programmed to believe weird, awful, stupid shit that is not true, so meglomaniac leaders can pursue their wet-dreams of global conquest.  Really - this is happening right now, playing out in real time, on an internet-connected computer-screen a few key-clicks away from you, right fucking now.

This is nuts.

This entire social-program model is bad and crazy, and will end badly - except it won't really ever end, it will just keep on, until we are all at each other's throats.    Putin has convinced Russians that Nazi's are controlling Ukraine, and war is needed.  No other view can be put forward.  It is mass-monitoring, AI and big-data management technology that makes this sort of horrific stupid lie possible.   Same thing in China, with Xi.  He has and is working right now, to convince the Chinese people that they need to "re-take" Taiwan.   This is crazy-stupid, cruel, pointless and evil.  But it is the internet and the extreme Chinese internet-monitoring that makes Xi's wet-dream of conquest possible.  No other sanity-enhancing view can be put forward.  This is only possible because it is being technologically enabled - and augmented with AI.  The best example being the face-recognition video monitoring technology  (Heck, I think they kinda look all the same - but the AI can do better at Chinese face-recognition than I can, no doubt about it.)

So, we are tracking toward these sad/bad nightmare outcomes.    This has little to do with Davos or Lucifer or some silly "Globalist agenda".   It's just the same set of expanding threats that we have all faced since science joined hands with the military, and began the process of making better and more effective weapons.   AI can be a very effective weapon.   It allows mass-surviellance to be made effective and actionable.   The Chinese and Russians and the Americans are doing it now.  Our "5-Eyes" are useless, if not connected to machines that can interpret what is being seen.  

"Rome is Your Fweind!"   (cf. "The Life of Brian")

Let's be clear:  AI is just another enabling technology, like a good handgun.  A handgun is a lovely thing, as it really does confer god-like power.  You close your fist, and you can hurl a thunderbolt, just like old Zeus.   Fine and lovely - if it is wielded by a good guy, against a bad guy or a murderous crazy "mucker"  (cf. "To Stand on Zanzibar".  "Mucker" was not from "mugger", but actually was taken from "amok-er", a term to describe a person who has "run amok", or is "running amok".)   "Amok" is a Malay term for "a murderous frenzy".  In European Old-Norse language, a similar term describing the same human phenomenon - a murderous frenzy - is: "berserk", or "berserkr", taken from "bjorn" = bear + "serkr" = shirt. )  

Language is how we understand.  Our very language, and our mathematics, are forms of artificial intelligence.  Napolean used AI.  His artillery officers put two logarithmic scales together on a little stick, so that they could slide against each other, and this let his guys use some basic trigonometry and quick, rough multiplication, to more accurately aim their cannons in the rapid heat of battle.   The guy who aims fastest and fires with the most accuracy, wins.

In aircraft, a simple gyroscope mechanism allowed an "artifical horizon" instrument to be created, which ran from air blown into it while the aircraft moved.  This little instrument let pilots "fly blind", without seeing the real horizon.  If you can't see the real horizon, you run real risk of spiral-diving into the earth, since the acceleration vector points down from your arse, tells you if you are flying straight and level (hence: "flying by the seat of your pants").  But in a spiral-death curve, you can *feel* you are flying straight-and-level, yet you are tracking a perfect spiral toward the earth, as the acceleration vector is still pointing outwards, orthagonal to your own backside.  Without the little "artificial horizon" instrument, you are a dead-man.  But with it, you can fly through cloud, use some math to determine your course and location, and bomb the crap out of the enemies cities, even if you cannot see them.   We won World War II this way.

AI is not new.   It's not new at all.    We have been using it for centuries.    And it reached it's best and most effective expression, in war and conflict.  World War Two was a science-war.  We won, because our science was better.  It was a *lot* better.

So, yeah.  We need to be careful.  But we also need to avoid being stupid.  There is an intense AI arms-race going on, right now.   AI is not a "digital daemon".  It's just another device for human augmentation, much like a good bow-and-arrow, a good, strong Damascus-steel sword-blade (both strong *and* flexible), or a good rifle is ( a rifled bore being a huge technical improvement over a smooth-bore ball firing flint-lock gun).    Know this.

So stop this stupid "crazy meme talk" about globalization being bad, and religious and/or witchcraft nonsense and god-fiction hooey, and just learn how to use the tech.   The AI technology is a weapon now.   And the guys with the best and most effective weapons, generally win the big war.

The big war is already happening.   It is a crazy cultural war, as much as it is becoming a real war, like it is right now, in Ukraine.   And like all big wars, it is one that the good guys must win, or we will see freedom die like those folks in Kyiv suburb Bucha saw it die.  Really.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/03/world/europe/ukraine-russia-war-civilian-deaths.html

Can AI help us prevent this kind of ugly shit like Russia did in Bucha?   Maybe.  Just maybe.

[ Aug. 13, 2022 ] - Big USA Election Coming - And it's already being rigged, in plain sight.   Don't take our word for this.  We are just gentle statisticians and analysts in the black-art of political economy.   But there is solid evidence that the Trump documents were available anytime that the USA government wanted to come and look at them.  The FBI raid on Trump's private residence is an astonishing travesty, on many different levels - from the basic issue of being an obviously abusive "home invasion", to the legal support given to it by a toad-faced moron in the US "Justice" Department, to the political foolishness of the curiously corrupted Democratic Party of the USA.   It's just crazy-nutbar bad, all around.

Don't take our word for it.  We think it looks like second- or third-rate ratfucking.  So do many others.  The Democrats should be ashamed of doing this, and it may well cost them, despite their obvious efforts to pre-rig the November elections, using all means possible:

https://thefederalist.com/2022/08/12/the-2024-election-is-being-rigged-right-now-in-plain-sight/

[ Aug. 12, 2022 ] - Dead Fish Don't Swim Home - The Democrats are behaving with astonishing foolishness.  The political weaponization of the US Justice Department is very unwise, the FBI is honestly becoming something that is a serious risk to ordinary Americans, the entire "Russia-meddled-in-US-election" narrative has been shown to be a false & illegal political construct, as it also now appears is the home-invasion raid by "FBI Agents" acting as Democratic political operatives - acting to obtain information on nuclear weapons.  

This has been reported by the Washington-RatFucking-Post, the most one-sided, politically slanted media-organ in the entire USA.  ("Rat-Fucking" is the technical term for what are sometimes called "Dirty Tricks" during election campaigns.  I've worked on election campaigns, and I've also worked as a scrutineer at a polling station.  Elections are serious.  Rat-fucking was not uncommon - many amusing and not so amusing examples exist.)

The Democrat-supporting Washington Post - the infamous "Watergate Newspaper" - is a political entity now, owned by Jeff Bezos.  The entity would have - mercifully - disappeared, if Bezos had not bailed it out with a bag of mega-bucks.  

So, we are concerned.  But not surprised.   The Democrats are being crazy - an assault on a former US President, who still commands the support of the Republican Party and roughly half of the American people, is profoundly unwise.

Seriously - if Trump had retained information on nuclear-weapons deployment, I am not uncomfortable with that.  Did he retain launch-code information?  Is that bad?   It means that if Washington were destroyed by a nuclear surprise attack, and the entire US Government was obliterated, perhaps some ability to respond, and a political control and co-ordination mechanism that folks would respect, might be retained, and be allowed to get up and running quickly.  

The entire raid looks like a political stunt to "rat-fuck" the Republicans and harm their election chances, by making their candidate look like a dangerous and irresponsible person.  This strategy might work - fear is a good political lever.  But it might, like most stupid, ill-planned stunts by not-so-cunning operatives  (the "cunning-stunts brigade") backfire in a spectacular manner.

We need stability, not political histronics by a bunch of Washington pencil-necked geeks, FFS.

And as to the Market:

Grasp this:  Rates are rising.  Capital is *working right* again.  Oh yeah!  Not too shabby, right?  Get it?  I remember this great comedy group from Montreal.  They performed in Toronto, and were called "Hetro Canada"  (there symbol was a copy of the "Petro Canada" logo, a giant maple leaf in background).  The handbill image showed a stylized 1950's boy with a short haircut and a girl in a dress of the same era, with text below saying: "Fucking Right!" - a clever phrase with an obvious double meaning.

This is the world we are transititioning back to.  Capital works right again.  Investment works right again.  Zero interest rates are like gay fucking - a rather silly idea that is profoundly unproductive, right?  Undeniable.  Just a dopey, goof thing, all around.  Laughable, really.  And that was the genius of the "Hetro Canada" campaign, which was shut down, of course, and was accused of being "homophobic", which of course, it was not.  But remember the "Name of the Rose".  Satire and humor are weapons against the overlords of evil.  ALways have been, always will be.

Simple thesis:  Rising interest rates => implies rising return on capital.  Business models work right again. This allows investment to work correctly again, and returns sanity to business process and financial/investment process.  Rising rate of return on capital is co-associated with this - even for real capital (the physical instantiation of financial capital), and as long as demand can be sustained (very, very critical - the buyers need to have money), then this is very, very market positive.  Good for investment process, good for business, stocks get bid up.

We found this phenomenon in history.  RIsing rates seem to track rising business conditions and rising markets.   Just go look, if you doubt this.

Love Trump or Hate Trump - he remains a force.  And this is starting to look like the England history War of the Roses, or the Japanese Heike versus the Gengi, or the Red Reactionairies vs the National Socialists in Germany, or the White Russians versus the Red Russians, and so on.   Only Trump is *not* Florian Geyer.   He is a former sitting President who won roughly half the votes of all the People.    He won't need a "Black Horde".   He is a former king, and he only needs to wait until the current bunch in charge of things, deliver another major failure.  He or someone like him, will be the next President, at some near point in the future.  Best strategy for Dems would be to leave him alone.

The only thing that is maintaining the Democrats, is the excellent, resiliant success of the US economy, and the better-late-than-never actions of the US Federal Reserve, and the fact that USA can use it's reserve-currency status to buy the world's stuff without effort.

Rising interest rates are also rising rates of return on captial (typically), and tend to be associated with rising stock markets.   So Don't Fear the Reaper, or the Return-to-Sanity Rally.  It's not a bad thing, and might move along just fine.  Rates return to the 5% to 7% level on the long-bond (which is the minimum if inflation is 5 to 8%), and DJIA tracks back to 35,000 to 36,000, which is not an unreasonable level.   This is not rocket-science, and those who would make it such, are just fucking wrong  (in more ways than one, eh?)   :)

Let me be even more clear:  We either track back to an environment of high-productivity and real technological improvement (not just more stupidphones) like we had in the 1960's (when everything we are using now was invented, from lasers, small computers and integrated circuits to B61-12's), or we are dead, and will crash back down into a scenario of mass-scarcity, and mass-warfare/poverty.   

Only Two paths are possible:  - one leads up, and the other leads down.  We either choose the Up-Path, support a global population of 30-to-40 billion and colonize Mars and then Venus, or we all die of starvation and disease, and the cockroaches inherit the future and our dead world.

[ Aug. 11, 2022 ] - Lou Ga Booh? - Or not.   As Mr. Every indicates - the economic numbers don't make sense, until you consider this new model where we see northern DM's moving to becoming southern-style EM's (and rich folks do ok, living in EM's - and the stonks get bid up, as long as the particular enterprise is not captured by crooks, or nuked by the corrupt government-of-the-week.   (I read a *lot* of crap, but like a dirt-digger in the People's Republic of Africastan, every so often, I find a diamond - maybe..)  Here is link to Zerohedge's reprint of Micheal Every of Rabobank's little note.  I read thru  it, and it's bloody good (I think.)  Big World is making a big transition.  We still be long-long, gentlemen, despite the motion-sickness that must be endured.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/one-bank-warns-us-econ-data-make-little-sense-until-you-recall-midterm-elections-are-coming

So, Western World, maybe all is not lost, eh?  SPQR.  (I bot another CZ - the magnificant Shadow 2 Tactical.)  I had always wanted to visit St. Petersburg, and tour the Hermitage.  <big sigh...> Won't happen, unless Gov't changes in Russland.   But maybe I can at least go visit the Czech Republic, Prague, and the place where the CZ's come from.  And Charles Bridge.   Prague has been a centre of culture & learning almost as long as Rome and Athens. 

https://archive.org/details/HorstWesselLiedToErika

Thx "Camshaft Daisy".  I really liked your video (above).  There is a scene from Charles Bridge in the video. I am just a history-student,  but we have to learn from our history.  And sometimes, one encounters something that just resonates.  I've had so many interesting conversations lately.  Truth is like ground-water under pressure.  The public "authorities" and the "old rabbits" (think "Watership Downs") try to control the narrative, but truth bubbles up like springwater, in the most curious places.

[ Aug. 9, 2022 ] - Are We Not Men? - Devolutionary trends abound everywhere, it seems.  Perhaps all the news-generators are dialing up the puff to provoke clicks, and things are not really as bad as they seem.  Or, perhaps they are much worse?  

We are deep in the DEVO now.  And curiously, the artists told us these strange truths, thru their wilding runs down the weirds of creativity, years and years ago.  We read of the FBI raid on Trump's home in Florida, the toxic spew old Medvedev is dumping out on Telegram, and the simple fact that Russia has just withdrawn from allowing START-V2 inspections of it's nuclear weapons arsenals.  

So, we not only see the USA falling into Venezuela-style politics, but the march-to-war continues, pretty much everywhere.   Dear old Boris Johnson was scheduled to meet the Polish PM, who basically told Johnson to "p*ss-off", and that he has no time for him.  This is unfortunate, and is an unwise snub.  We cannot shake the feeling that Johnson was the victim of a carefully aimed torpedeo, and that, as the UK crashes into ugly hard-times, Johnson may get pulled back from oblivion, to repair things.   

UK politics is harsh and vicious and profoundly toxic.  It would be good if the Brits could see just how great and serious a threat they are currently under, and try to come together and not fight among themselves (like everyone, everywhere seems so intent on doing.)

We see a very serious scenario unfolding, unlike any we have seen before.   The current Russian government is dangerously insane, and dominated by violent, gangster-style "tough guys", who represent a profound threat to the world.  USA Democrats are lined up behind old women, ill old men dealing with mental decline, and looney-leftists who only represent the American MSM (mainstream media) and the woke-fringe types who believe men can become women, by changing their clothes and their pronouns.   It's madness like we would not have thought possible.

And the US Navy - one of the most successful military organizations ever created - is now having to deal with F/A-18 "Eagle" aircraft, being wafted by wind off the airside deck of a carrier, and dropped into the wine-dark sea.  Bravo that the Navy salvage teams were able to recover the sunken fighter platform, but perhaps the boat-bosses might want to consider having the crew put tie-downs on parked aircraft?   Given that you are parking $100 million aircraft on the flat-surface of a big boat, this would seem the prudent thing to do, yes?

But this curious pattern of "devolution" seems to be everywhere.  We need to consider the risks and costs of electing unwise political people to positions of great authority.  And of course, we need to question the dicktats of authority-agents now, with even greater emphasis than at any time, ever before.   We are left with no choice, really, lest we become part of this curious race-to-the-bottom that seems to be underway, everywhere.

[ Aug. 8, 2022 ] - Lethe and Alethia (Oblivion and Truth) - Do we trade one for the other?  Do we deny Truth, and accept delusion and fraud, to gain benefit and favour from the dishonest?   Hell, no.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lethe

The truth is - is that chance and randomness are the Gods of this Universe we live in.   Accept this, and profit by it.   But it is in the power of each man, to define himself, set his principles and control his fate.

"It is only as a man puts off all foreign support, and stands alone, that I see him to be strong and to prevail. He is weaker by every recruit to his banner. Is not a man better than a town? Ask nothing of men, and in the endless mutation, thou only firm column must presently appear the upholder of all that surrounds thee. He who knows that power is inborn, that he is weak because he has looked for good out of him and elsewhere, and so perceiving, throws himself unhesitatingly on his thought, instantly rights himself, stands in the erect position, commands his limbs, works miracles; just as a man who stands on his feet is stronger than a man who stands on his head.

So use all that is called Fortune. Most men gamble with her, and gain all, and lose all, as her wheel rolls. But do thou leave as unlawful these winnings, and deal with Cause and Effect, the chancellors of God?  In the Will work and acquire, and thou hast chained the wheel of Chance, and shalt sit hereafter out of fear from her rotations.  A political victory, a rise of rents, the recovery of your sick, or the return of your absent friend, or some other favorable event, raises your spirits, and you think good days are preparing for you.  Do not believe it.  Nothing can bring you peace but yourself.  Nothing can bring you peace but the triumph of principles. "   - Ralph Waldo Emerson.

[ Aug. 7, 2022 ] - Stainless-Steel Underground - as opposed to the Velvet Underground, right?  Not Nico - maybe Ocin?  Or the Great Hole of War?   IDK.  Sunak must regret back-stabbing his boss, since his actions will put yet another woman in charge of a key Western nation.  Maybe Ms. Truss will be a fine and good Leader.   But will she have the stone-of-scone to pull the big trigger, when it becomes necessary?   Read a summary of the "Holy Illusions" note, by an economist from Rabobank.  UK is in real trouble, and so is Europe.   We did it exactly wrong with Russia.  We should have blocked all their exports, and blocked their harbours.  They might feel that negotiation would have been a good idea.  As it is now, we have no choice, but to continue to dial-up the war.  For now, it is by proxy, but this cannot last.  NATO and the United Nations are really of no value, if their institutions and technologies are not deployed now.  

And with Xi of China threatening to attack Taiwan, and Kishida of Japan being a soft and silly neko-chan, all the cost of protecting the free, democratic world, falls almost entirely on the divided and angry USA.  

Putin and Xi will ensure there is no Pearl Harbour - only a peril harbour.   Poor Japan - when they should have been peaceful, they were war-crazy.   When they need to accept and deal with the real threat of invasion-war from China, they are peace-talkers choosing the path of non-nuclear weakness.   They are a curious people, out of phase with evident reality, and at the worst possible time in history, when being an island is of no strategic or military benefit. 

Rather like the UK - facing a failing Europe and a fascist Russia - yet again - as if history has become a kind of "Ground-Hog Day".  

If we are to ensure peace and resiliant operational continuity, each of us is going to have to engineer this for ourselves, privately, and on our own quiet terms of careful action.  And that is possible, with the new technology.   We can let the queers, the girlboys and gaygirls have the velvet underground.  Lou and Andy are long dead, but their zietgeist marches big, in the twisted mindspace of our misguided national statesmen.  So curious - as if there was a careful plan to weaken and degrade Western culture, from the inside.  Many argue that this is exactly what is now happening.   We are not sure, and suspect it is just the coin-toss of historical "devolution".  Not every evolutionary change is positive.   Many have to be negative, and self-limiting, for the evolutionary process to actually work.   The weak and the stupid and the wrong have to die off and not breed, if evolution is to track any kind of postive course of continous improvement.  This is the harsh reality of the world of life.

But you don't have to climb aboard the "B-Ark", or "Drink the Kool-aid" laced with cyanide (the popular expression for falling into a destructive pit of suicidal delusion.)   If you ship is toxic and your captain is crazy, you leave and swim for land.  If your own leaders are seeking to destroy you,  then you de-couple from their control process.

You can go underground - a stainless-steel kind of underground of the mind - where you harden all your emotional, political, financial, physical and psychological defenses, and focus on the mechanics of resiliency. 

Don't ride in the "B-Ark", and don't drink that deadly sweet nectar of lies and delusion.  

Think for yourself, and do that which you know must be done.  Keep your own council, but offer enlightenment to others, also, if you can.  (Mostly, you will be scorned. Try anyway.)  We are on our own, now, in so many ways.   But we always have been, truth be told. 

What is so interesting, is that writers and thinkers like Ralph Waldo Emerson - in 1841 - was able to articulate almost *exactly* this same philosophy, in his "Essays on Self-Reliance".  (It is so curious, when one grasps and realizes a hard-won truth - which often places him outside of the ken of many others of his kin and friends - and he finds that others have discovered the same truth, and written down this clear truth, in different times, in different worlds.

https://archive.vcu.edu/english/engweb/transcendentalism/authors/emerson/essays/selfreliance.html

[ Aug. 5th, 2022 ] - War Bonds - Trying to get a sense of the future, here.   It looks like one of rising prices, and conflict, regardless of what the Central Bankers do.   Curious.   

Unless the abusive militarists in Russia and China (Putin and Xi) can be removed, and replaced with non-warmongers, then we see global conflict as being unavoidable.  The only upside, is that the lead-up to the bombing may well be associated with rising markets, and improving economic circumstnaces for many folks.

[ Aug. 4th, 2022 ] - Party Like It's 2099 (or 1939...)- Well, this is interesting.  The AI models have turned up, and the best one, quite sharply.   And this is the funny thing about the world.  It all looks pretty damn bleak.  But this is when improvements and corrections become possible.  If the house five doors down, burns down after a horrible family fight, folks respond by being more kind to their partners, and buying fire extinguishers.    We remain long, not just all-in, but with a tiny bit of margined holdings, in addition to being all-in.   Curious times.  The new B61-12's are coming along nicely.  And the F-35 problems with the ejection-seats have been resolved.   We are ready to rock-and-roll, if the need arises.

Here's that link from last year, again...

https://discover.lanl.gov/news/1220-b61-12-reaches-milestone

[ Aug. 3rd, 2022 ] - Pendejo Economics -
There is no way to say this with any sort of polite language.  Lets start down south:

Argentina is a nation of fine and noble people - but their governments are made up of what appear to be the most deeply unwise.  It is a curious and interesting phenomenon, worthy of serious study.   Inflation is running at roughly 60% per year, and the people - the citizens of Argentina, a lovely nation endowed with spectacularly attractive land and fertile regions which can produce fine crops and excellent wine - are burdened with idiot-silly, foolish political leftist clowns.   Never mind my opinion, take a look at this:

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/argentina-pledges-to-end-budget-financing-via-money-printing-1.1801210

This - in the 21st century, in a time of crisis where we are all recovering from a nasty viral medical emergency - is insane.   The Argentina government has being paying its bills - or trying to  - by printing money.  This is madness, and is known to cause .... What, you ask?  ... EXACTLY WHAT IS HAPPENING - INSANE,  (REALLY STUPID) .. RUNAWAY INFLATION.

Dear Argentina:  What the part of basic, intro "Econ 101" did your unwise clown government people not understand?  JHC, this is beyond belief.   For economists like ourselves, this is like a bunch of medical doctors finding a modern nation using witchdoctors and magic spells to treat sickness - and insisting it is OK.   The entire Argentina scenario is beyond belief stupid - hard to reconcile with a modern, 21st century world.  They cannot seem to learn anything at all. 

The new Economics Minister guy has promised to stop doing this - and will be asking for yet another loan.   Really?

It looks like the Government people are brain-dead zombie loons, who cannot think or reason with even the ability of a dog or a three-year old child.  They just keep making these same mistakes, over and over and over and over, like a collective of insane, socialist lunatics.  (Or like the evil clowns from Venezuela...).   We may have to just give the up, on South America.  The Leftist spanish socialist government clowns need to grow the hell up and become rational adults  - because we are becoming just as badly stupid in North America as they are now, and soon, we suspect, our governments will not have sufficient resources to bail out their sorry leftist backsides from economic grief, since we seem to be electing insane people as our leaders also.   

So, you are soon going to be on your own.  The IMF may soon self-destruct, as perhaps nature and the gods-of-economics will require it to do, since no one in the global room, anywhere, seems to have any economic sanity or common sense anymore.

This seems beyond belief, truth be told.   I am just losing objectivity.   Maybe military fascist dictatorship is the only way forward for the South.  What an awful, awful thought.

I went out to the Gun Club today, and played with a big .45 calibre rifle for a while.  It was very soul-comforting.  Big BANG, and the splatter-targets show the big hole for each round.  I had made a bunch of engineering changes to the particular rifle in question, and it worked well.  So nice, when the technology works.  No wonder war is so attractive to the common people - AND especially to the Officers and Generals.  The political buffoons can be pushed to one side, and positive outcomes can be created.  

We predict a big conflict soon, since the world is being run by the most astonishing group of clowns and fools and criminals, that have ever walked the corridors of power, in probably all of modern human history.  (Is this really the case, or we just getting old and smart and seeing things we used to miss?)   More likely, it has always been like this.  People - especially Leaders, Kings, Princes, etc., are just cruel, stupid and dangerous most of the time.  It's only a good Constitution, and good luck, that saves us and/or keeps the evil criminals at bay.  Sometimes.

It may be next decade, or five years from now, or next year, or next week.   Wowie, zowie.... as the "Mothers of Invention" said.   But we are not done.  Let's look, closer to home:

North America:

Ok, so lets look at what the clowns here are doing:  Last year, on August 3rd 2021, the 2-year T-Bill in the good old USA, yielded 0.17 percent.   Today  - August 3rd, 2022, the yield on the 2-year is 3.10%.  Get this?  Dig it?  Now, lets be really clear here:  Last year, 2 year risk free interest rate was 0.17%, and this year, is is 3.10%.  Ok?  Clear? 

Now, according to my simple calculations, this is a: 1723.53 % increase in the price of money.   Let's be more clear.  This is a One Thousand, Seven Hundred and Twenty Three point Five Three PERCENT increase in the short-term, risk-free interest rate.  Let's check the calculation:  0.17 x (1+17.2353) = 0.17 x 18.2353 =  3.10 PERCENT.    Right.

Ok, so the price of  MONEY - the thing that EVERYONE USES TO GET STUFF DONE, and to GET THINGS BUILT, and so on - this has INCREASED by over one thousand, seven hundred PERCENT in one year.   And this cost-of-capital price increase, is hitting a debt-heavy economy.

AND it gets better.   The 10-year Treasury note rate is - today, August 3rd, 2022,  - recorded a closing yield of 2.70%.  Hey!   That is an INVERTED YIELD CURVE which is typically associated with tight money and a RECESSION.

So, we have two quarters of negative GDP in the good old USA, and also, a seriously inverted yield curve - and yet the  SILLY CRAP-FOR-BRAINS FUMBDUCKS (oh, like White House skanks, and some guy named Krugman - a lefty runt who should bloody well know better) are insisting that the good old USA is not in a recession.  WTF?   Of course it is.   But it might be short and not too serious.  Unless your are all stupid.

We don't care about semantics.  But deceptive, arrogant, smart-arsed leftist liars just drive us crazy.

Dear USA Democrats - COULD YOU PLEASE STOP LYING ABOUT ECONOMICS?

And could you folks at the Federal Reserve, please try not to be stupid?

I don't want to see my world wrecked by these fraudster Leftist buffoons, idiots and fools.

Recognize, that the good old USA, has just been hit with the MOTHER OF ALL PRICE INCREASES -  VASTLY GREATER THAN WHAT THE USA CENTRAL BANKERS DID BACK IN 1929, to provoke the October 1929 Stock Market Crash.  (Rates were popped from 4% to 6%.  Given the insane leverage in the market, that was enough.)  Take a little note of this, and recognize that you need to pause, and see just what this 17 hundred percent price increase in the price of money, is going to do to your domestic economy.

Please grasp the idea that big changes in critical factor prices in a complex economy, can have EXTREMELY non-linear results.  This might be one of these times.

And take note of that INVERTED YIELD CURVE.  It is honestly telling you something.  Something real.

Your economic models are wrong.   All models are basically wrong, because THEY ARE MODELS, they are not reality.   The kids sometimes forget this.  Right?

I don't want to see my world blown to hell because everyone seems to be acting brain-dead.  Of course inflation needs to be hammered down.  But is the inflation all coming from too much demand?  Are you sure?  Please, be careful.

I am not the only one feeling this curious frustration...

https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2022/08/01/the_mind-blowing_stupidity_behind_the_280_billion_chips_for_america_act_845357.html

The policy-people and the politicians have to stop doing so much profound damage.  Just stop.  It is getting seriously out of hand.  These political clowns are at risk of blowing up not just the US Treasury, but the entire USA economy - and maybe the world economy also.   We can look thru history and see what generally happens, when the Kings, Princes and Leaders do this sort of mindless reactive madness.   We typically crash into unnecessary - and now maybe world-wrecking - war.

The leaders of the world have got to back off, and start focusing on STABILITY SEEKING STRATEGIES because otherwise, we are at real risk of a phase-jump to several possible kinds of self-destruction.   I am not the only one saying this.   It's in the math, sitting there for all to see.

[ Aug. 1st, 2022 ] - Junxit deceptio mors non separabit. - "Death will not separate, that which is by delusion joined."   This is my update on the inscription in the famous Masonic golden ring.  

It describes the true nature of much of human political action.

We have watched in astonishment, as the Democrats in USA, and the Leftist "Liberals" in Canada, have made such curious and extreme efforts to lie to their public, and use outright deception as a political toolset.   Trump - even with his lies - was "truthier" than this new crop of angry clowns.

It's weird, dangerous and problematic.   The "main-stream media (MSM)" is partly to blame, but the blame also resides within each human soul.  People hear and see what they want to hear and see - their biased judgements are suspect, even at the best of times.   Objectivity is something that is difficult to maintain, yet still remains of greatest importance. 

Without at least a desire and a commitment to attempt to "live in truth", there is no life at all - only a temporary bio-process that is limited and will - with certainty - end and fail, and be of no value to anyone or anything.

It is the truth of our ideas and of our ideals that matter most.    This really is the whole message of life itself.  We can understand this as the key.  In a Latin inscription:  "Junxit veritas mors non separabit" - "What is joined with truth, cannot be separated by death."  Even Death cannot kill the Truth.  But we can, if we fail to honour truth.  If we break this link, the World can break. 

This is what is playing out in Ukraine right now - an astonishing and loathsome attempt by Putin's gangster militarists, to destroy the very idea of Ukrainian national identity, and reduce the country of Ukraine to a vassal-state of Russian subjects, in a no-longer-free Russia which is now dominated by a man who uses targeted assassination and mass-murder as a political strategy.

This is murder-crime of the very worst kind.    It is the most ugly and offensive political action, since the actions of German National Socialist leader, Adolf Hitler, and of course, bears great resemblance to what that monster-criminal, Joseph Stalin also tried to do.

These people - Hitler and Stalin - perhaps honestly believed that mass-murder and what we now call war-crimes, could be justified.  But the World must retain it's hard-won knowledge.  It must be joined in virtue to the memory and the truth of what criminal sadists and evil persons, these two leaders were.

Putin - like an evil little toy soldier -  follows in their footsteps, and beats on their same drums of deep dishonesty.    Either we are joined by virtue to what is true, and we oppose this, or we are absolute and perfect failures as living creatures, having separated ourselves from the truth and from the very idea of virtue.

Choose.

[ July 31, 2022 ] - Pierre Poilievre - the Next Canadian Prime Minister

Just learned this.  Really - we do so much international work, I have shamefully neglected my own balliwick.  Time to fix this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8bGVNPw9R8o

This guy, Poilievre, will be our next Leader.  Count on it. 

[ July 31, 2022 ] - Is Justin Trudeau Clinically Insane? - We are starting to feel like we are crew on that ship run by Captain Queeg, played by the great Humphry Bogart in the film "The Caine Mutiny". 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Caine_Mutiny_(film)

Except our captain is Justin Trudeau, who more and more is looking like he seriously might be clinically insane.   We honestly question whether he is competent to be acting in the role of Canada's Prime Minister.  

We just learned that the strange "Liberal" Government in Ottawa, is proposing to initiate a *mandatory* buy-back of all existing, and now *prohibitied* AR-15 rifles AND we also understand that all purchases and sales of handguns will be banned in Canada, by these same  Ottawa clowns.   This is an absurd and profoundly unwise action, being taken by someone we think might actually be mentally unfit to govern.   This is serious.  The information that is flowing out from the Ottawa dis-information machinery is quite frightening, and - most disturbing - is profoundly inaccurate.  It's really nasty.  And it is just so misleading.

The Liberals have to be removed from power in Canada.  This is now a priority.    I am surprised that Justin Trudeau is being so unwise and foolish, as to attack such a large, honest and law-following group of citizens.  It is ugly, dishonest and abusive politics, being done by dangerous lightweights, who hope to score points with the ignorant and uninformed.

The Liberals are using the actions of an insane, violent mass-killer in Nova Scotia, that "Wortman" person, who used an *illegal*, unlicensed firearm to kill people, as he drove around the province in a fake RCMP police car.    It was the tragic, horrific actions of a madman.  And a madman who DID NOT HAVE a firearms licence, and obtained his weapon illegally.

Trudeau and his cronies are implying that the actions of this criminal, using an illegally acquired firearm, and pretending to be a police office, somehow reflects on lawful, patriotic Canadians, who are interested in carefully and legally engaging in the shooting sports.   His fundamental argument that firearms ownership is a "public safety issue" is manifestly false, and he cannot be so stupid, as not to know the truth of this.

That makes him a dishonest and abusive fraudster, and such a person is a serious threat to the Canadian Federation.   Many people in Canada have lost confidence in this man, and feel he is unfit to govern, even those who at one time supported him.  His idiotic assault on firearms owners - probably the most law-abiding and careful folks in the country - every one of whom is documented, photo-IDed, and licensed by the RCMP - is either fraud, or madness.  Or perhaps it is a bit of both.

We live in sad and serious times.   What worries us most, is that this little man, is also quite possibly actually insane, in a real and clinically confirmable manner.    There is evidence he is profoundly unfit to be in any position of authority - much less acting as the prime Government authority figure.

We are not alone in our assessment of this.   Justin Trudeau is an angry man, with serious emotional problems, and there is mounting evidence that he is emotionally unfit for his current role.  

 

Trudeau's Emotional Complexity (historical):

Trudeau, early on (6 years ago), actually confessed to mental instability and serious "anger" issues, in a meeting of senior advisors.  This was reported by sympathetic news-reporters as simply his "emtional complexity".  This was six years ago.   We see evidence of this becoming more serious now, and more than just "emotional complexity":

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/the-emotional-complexities-of-justin-trudeau/article29409595/

 

The Covid-19 Policies of Trudeau's Regime:

The National Post and it's reporters, (and many others) characterized the Trudeau Covid-19 policies as "madness"  (Trudeau was one of the first people to actually bring Covid to Canada, if people can recall):

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/chris-selley-the-madness-of-trudeaus-vaccine-policies-foretell-the-end-of-his-reign

 

Trump's Take on Trudeau...:

Regardless of what one thinks about former US President Trump, he was known for plain speech.  And he often called it clearly, as he saw it.  He called Trudeau with some accuracy:

https://www.businessinsider.in/politics/world/news/trump-calls-justin-trudeau-a-far-left-lunatic-as-trucker-led-covid-19-vaccine-protests-continue-in-canada/articleshow/89370317.cms

https://worldnewsera.com/news/canada/trump-calls-trudeau-far-left-lunatic-expresses-support-for-convoy/

 

What do Members of the European Parliament Think of Trudeau?:

Members of the European Parliament have a similar view to Mr. Trudeau, as did former President Trump.  Trudeau spoke to the European Parliament bragging about the "tools we have at our disposal" (much like Vladimir Putin has engineered his "tools" for the disposal of Ukraine), and a few European Parliamentarians recognized the kind of speech they had heard before, and spoke in clear language of their revulsion and disgust with Justin Trudeau:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UL1kMKgq1b0

 

What People of Courage and Action, Think of Trudeau:

People who have historical perspective, deeply detest Trudeau for his pro-terrorist policies:

https://www.facebook.com/JustinTrudeauisanIdiot/photos/the-words-of-an-insane-person/1299472060190066

https://www.facebook.com/JustinTrudeauisanIdiot/photos/the-words-of-an-insane-person/1295373650599907

 

The Feeling In the House of Commons - Canada's Parliament:

Trudeau was loudly "booed" in Canada's House of Commons, for saying to a Jewish Member of Parliament, that she was a person who "supported swastika's".  This was not only rude and ugly, but it was just plain crazy-stupid wrong.  It was something a truly crazy person would say:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x-0MXlq4QUc

 

Australian Views on Trudeau:

A reporter from Australian Sky News, described Justin Trudeau's actions as "insane" back in February of this year:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=inPEY_PS4kU

 

A Toronto Take on Trudeau (A Town of Liberals):

Another reporter for a Toronto newspaper, suggested, back in 2021, that "Justin Trudeau is playing with a whole heap of crazy."

https://torontosun.com/opinion/columnists/bonokoski-justin-trudeaus-playing-with-a-whole-heap-of-crazy

The people of Canada - more than 50% - want this fellow to be GONE.  There is a LOT of evidence of this fact, but of course, given the current support the NDP offers the MINORITY Liberal "Government", there is nothing we the people of Canada, can do about this problem, until election time.

 

The People of Canada's View of Trudeau:

https://www.instagram.com/p/CgmE7q6LPyp/?hl=en

https://www.instagram.com/explore/tags/trudeaumustgo/?hl=en

https://www.instagram.com/p/CglSVFstbLc/?hl=en

https://www.instagram.com/p/CgA31efJcet/?hl=en

http://friendlymisanthropist.blogspot.com/2021/09/does-justin-trudeau-suffer-from-mental.html

https://www.aptnnews.ca/national-news/trudeau-spent-nearly-100m-fighting-first-nations-in-court-during-first-years-in-power/

Now, lets be very, very clear here.  I am not attacking Justin Trudeau's mother.  I am just a simple analyst, gathering facts.   We honestly have some real concern, that Justin Trudeau is becoming unhinged, and unwell, and needs to be removed from his position of power.  He is just riding the lie-machine too often, and it is now reaching out and hitting us here, where we live.

So, lets be clear.  His mom was *very* unstable, with *serious* mental health problems.  She has been honest about this, and written it down in books.  We feel Canada is too important a social experiment, and the Canadian Federation - which has a long and valuable tradition of freedom - real freedom, not phony fake paper-freedom of the Leftists fraudsters -  is at risk.   

His mom was mentally unstable, and we suspect that he is also.  The man needs to step down.  Any good clinical doctor or psychological specialist, will admit that madness and mental illness which provokes bad behaviour, runs in families.  There is real, solid, hard evidence of this:

https://margarets.ca/margaret-trudeau-advocacy-award/

The more we dig into this, the more serious it looks.   

Listen to the sort of absurd, dishonest nonsense this fellow tried to retail, when legitimate protestors came to Ottawa to air their concerns.   Listen to what Justin Trudeau said, in his OWN VIDEO PRESENTATION:

https://21stcenturywire.com/2022/02/01/justin-trudeau-might-be-clinically-insane/

I started this analysis as someone who was not really a believer in the "Justin Trudeau is clinically insane" viewpoint.  I thought Trudeau was just going into a kind of full-Putin mode, and had simply decided to try to take down some marginal citizen-voter folks who his own unwise political people probably said didn't vote for him anyway.   Except, like Putin, we used to have some real sympathy for Trudeau.  If he did not attack us too directly, we were willing to give him the benefit of the doubt.

But then, he decided that us quiet, private-sector farmer-folks - we were some kind of *enemy to Canada*, and our first, honest, intial reaction, was simply:  "This is just f*cking insane!   This sounds like what Hitler did in Germany, in the 1930's!"    And see, because of our economic research, we actually know a fair bit about this interesting time period.  For Liberals, this timeperiod and place, was a real object of study.  Stephan Dion's father actually did his thesis on the interesting political phenomenon of Germany in the 1930's.  (Dion was a Liberal leader, and failed Prime Minister candidate.)   Our interest has been on the economics of the whole process, and we have studied how Schact worked his magic to end the hyperinflation.  But the politics is really where the meat is.  It was such a terrifying and effective social and economic experiment, like the world has rarely seen.

So, the thought has occured, perhaps ... OMG, what if Justin Trudeau really is actually, truly insane?  Maybe full-on paranoid/delusional...   Is this possible?  

And as we set out to investigate this - we learned there honestly is a pattern.   The man is over-the-top unwise, and it now looks like he is being controlled by some curiously dark forces.  But these dark forces might be inside his own mind.   You don't even need to propose a "conspiracy theory", if you realize your subject is clinically mentally ill.

There is nothing we, as powerless average citizens, can do about this, until the next election, sadly.  And the election has been prevented, by the "national" socialists of the NDP, signing an agreement with the Ottawa Liberals.   Birds of a common feather, of course.  (yikes...)

But there WILL be an election at some point.   And there WILL be a reckoning.   The man is both not wanted, and we fear, he is bordering on crazy-dangerous, rather like Mr. Putin of the Russian Federation.

Until the next election, we will have to try to stay strong.    This crazy guy looks like he may be quite dangerous, and we had all better "stand on guard", as the words to our national anthem suggest is indicated during times of crisis.

We suspect efforts at mass confiscation of firearms will create a result similar to alcohol prohibition efforts - a significant increase in crime and criminal activity.  Trudeau and his gang are being completely insane, to a degree we thought would not occur. 

 

It's Worse Down South!

And finally, from the "It could be Worse.." file:  It is getting *really* weird in the USA.  The Biden folks are proposing an "Inflation Reduction Act" which will include a whole bunch of new taxes, and over $300 billion of new "credits" for wind-turbines and solar panels.  WTF?  Can you drive to work, using a "Wind Turbine"?   Biden and his handlers are *insane*.  And the Wharton school at Univ. of Pennsylvania, have run the new spending from the proposed "Inflation Reduction Act" thru their USA economic model, and said that this legislation will *increase* inflation.  Really.  And Biden has said: "The USA in not in recession", except we have just had two negative quarters of GDP growth, which is the technical definition of a recession.

So, without question.. the USA is even MORE INSANE that Trudeau and his gang, appear to be.  And understand - I am not making anything up here.  Our world leaders are inside some kind of deeply self-delusional information filter-bubble.   Take a look, don't just trust us:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2TdRdn6BqrA

[ July 30, 2022 ] - Patterns of the Wild  - Yes, indeed.  And, when one can learn to read them, all becomes possible. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6GTmN7Fhv6o

The theme-song for chaos researchers, market-hackers, designers of advanced targeting software, and those who ran "hydrosims" at LANL, back in the old days...  Very good song.  Short, sharp and most creative, insightful lyrics, with evident hard-core acoustical poetry, on fine display.

We must do much more, than just to estimate Lyapunov Exponents, and determine embedding dimension.  We must pilot our lifecraft thru the roaring, bucking chaos, like a weapon's flying arrowhead.

[ July 29, 2022 ] - The Silence of the Neutrons - Some guy even has a Hedge Fund, named "Deuterium ...", which I thought was pretty funny.  We messed around with IEC Fusors, ran some fusion experiments that were successful, but found more profit in building Artificial Intelligence (AI) machines, to predict market action.   Curious, how technical developments tend to track similar, among different groups.  Good name for a Hedge Fund.   We hope the electricity-producing fusion reactors will eventually be developed.

The AI market forecast has turned up, and we are getting hard confirmation of our theory related to improvements in rate-of-return on capital driving market pricing improvements.  We expect the markets to continue to track upwards, as interest-rates are normalized.   The recent economic stimulation experiments due to Covid-19 pandemic, have had these extreme asymetries, which are now - essentially - being addressed.   Sanity is returning.  

We just need to begin the bombing campaign in - and against - Russia.   We hope it can start soon.  The Ukrainians are prevented from launching attacks into Russia, while Russian cruise missiles are raining down on their hospitals, schools, shopping centres, and grain warehouses. 

This is completely and absurdly insane.  All Russian military bases should be destroyed - and it should happen over a weekend - with whatever weapons are available.   The explicit statement must also be made, that Moscow and St. Petersburg will be destroyed, if Russia uses any nuclear weapons of any kind, anywhere.  

One has to speak to the Russians in their own language, and this is, of course, the language of violence, terror and conquest.  They are what they are.   And right now, they are the greatest problem the World is now facing.   One way or another, we will have to face this problem, and deal with it.

It's sad, that the World must likely now track forward into mass-violence again.  War is bad.  But the abusive and insane actions of Putin and his henchmen, offer us no real choice.  Sanctions are quite silly, wasteful, and most of all, profoundly ineffective.  They in fact aid dictators and criminals in their missions of social control, and as such, should be avoided.  The "Ron Reagan Methodology" - a directed missile attack explicitly against the murderous dictator's houses and homes (cf. Gadaffi of Libya, after the Pan-Am bombing over Scotland), is a vastly better strategy, and much more likely to yield behaviour-change.   These days, the World - and it's leaders -  is becoming stupid.   We need to correct this.

We did not *negotiate* with Al Quida, and/or Osama Bin Laden.  We hunted him down, and ensured he was ended.    This is the strategy that needs to be taken, when a mass-murderer begins his projects to destroy cities.  

We ended Bin Laden.  We didn't just cancel his VISA cards.  Similar action is required now, with the current crop of city-killers, and murderers-of-the-innocent.

[ July 28, 2022 ] - Private-Sector Nuclear Weapons? - I remember this tune - Tom Lehrer's clever song about  "World War III"...  Pretty funny, actually.  And of course, it is on Youtube.  How about that!   And it could have been written last week...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yrbv40ENU_o

And if that does not sum it up, have a look at what Mr. Market is doing..  And guess what?  The AI turned up last nite, after yesterday's data update.  I thought to myself:  "Really?... Really??".  We  have had this theory about investment-action "normalization", and the curious lovely action that occurs when the old-fashioned rate-of-return on capital, starts to move in a healthy, positive direction.  And there it goes.  The doom-pedlars are ripping their hair out, and gnashing their tiny little pointed teeth.  It's kind of strange and curious to watch it play out.  

See, there is all this most astonishing drivel on the "big internet".   So much that is written is just wild-arsed wrong.  It is wrong and wrong -- and then wrong again.  But it seems to be a product that can be sold, like fertilizer for the rosebuds of the world.   (Remember "Citizen Kane"?  "Rosebud...  Rosebud..." his last words at death?   Was supposed to be a snow-sleigh...  But "rosebud" is American slang, for arse-hole.  No one talked about that, in my film course...)

There is so much poop and stinking-slime-stuff that sloshes around on the 'net, now, it is almost a textbook picture of how awful human-awfulness can be.  I read today about some poor young bastard who was on a little vacay in Greece, and he took a helicopter ride, and managed to walk into the rear propeller blades.  SO damn sad and awful - he was on his stupid-phone chatting, apparently, and it was dark..

And his sister has had to post stuff to ask people to stop hate-posting on him for being a rich, helicopter-riding rich-boy - since he was not, and this was actually even his first helicopter ride.

I remember my first heli-ride.  It was a small two-seater, one of those bubble-front choppers they used in Korean War, like in MASH TV series.   I was a tiny kid, and sat on my dad's knee, without a seatbelt, (and no doors on the thing!)  and the pilot, my father, and me, lept into the air and flew around a fair-ground in our small city.   I thought it was the coolest thing we had ever done.  Helicopters are just great.  But don't walk into the damn blades, eh?   Poor guy...

But the world is silly, and is run by deeply unwise folks, who are selfish, nasty and really, really dangerous mother-killers and child-shredders.  That's just the truth of things.  Even the "good" Christians would happily abuse and murder kids - like the lonely little Indian kids in Residential Schools, who probably had to provide cocksucking-service to the Catholic Priests and "lay-fathers" who ran the Indian schools.  The Pope apologized for this, and Cdn taxpayers have paid off some of the remaining adults who suffered the abuse as children.  But they are finding all these unmarked graves of the Indian kids who died at these schools.   Sad all around.   Putting the Catholic Church in charge of teaching children is maybe not the best plan, given the sex-crazed weirdness and appetite for cruelty and abuse, that has characterized so much of Catholic history.   It's just a fact of history, and you simply cannot deny it.  Catholics like to hurt people.  They seem to like it a lot.   Hell, most folks do.  It's a sad, bad world.

No one expected the "Spanish Inquisition" in Canada.  Just  as Monty Python so eloquently informed us as kids back in the 1970's... no one actually expects the Spanish Inquisition.  But it seems to crop up like clockwork - most recently in Kyiv suburbs, for Christ's sakes.  Truly insane.

And no one expects World War III, just yet.   But we are thinking actually, that Ackman is probably right, and it has probably already started.    Each side will refrain from using it's nuclear weapons, just like each side, in World War II, did not use it's stockpiles of poison gas.

No on talks about this.  England and USA did not use poison gas.   And even Hitler did not use poison gas - except on Jews, who had been disarmed, and put into gas-chambers.  And it was other Jews that actually ran that operation, which was genius - like Putin is now using Russian kids to kill Ukrainian kids.  How fucking awful is this?  If you put all this insane cruelty into a fiction book, people would dismiss it as too far-fetched and silly-awful.  But this is what humans like to do.  History teaches us this - over and over, it seems.

People can be astonishingly awful creatures, brain-dead and cruel in the most astonishing ways.  

So, don't feel too surprised or sad, as the private-sector boys begin to become the war-fighters.  With the nasty and sadistic "Wagner Group" from Russia, Putin has already begun this new trend.  And like any good trend, it will likely continue.   Right to it's logical conclusion.

[ July 27, 2022 ] - Give War a Chance - Really.   We are moving towards the time when this will have to happen.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0VQgbMOezqA

The Ukrainians are fighting the most astonishingly pure evil.   The asinine stupid cruelty of Putin's murder campaign is beyond anything rational or acceptable.   It is tragic, vicious gangster-style theft - of land, of grain, and of human life.   Putin is a criminal, who must be brought to justice.

For now, the Ukrainians fight.  And bury their dead.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-buries-young-soldier-who-planned-marry-2022-07-26/

Vladimir Putin is a murderer.    Sanctions are not enough.

We've been beating on our brains, to answer: "How we can defeat a giant mass-murder nation like Russia?"  This is hard question, and implies a very difficult project, to say the least.

But we have come up with an idea.   :)

[ July 26, 2022 ] - Warren Piece - I read yesterday the absurd and unmitigated horseshit that US Senator Elizabeth Warren wrote in the Wall Street Journal.  (Yes, you can *mitigate* horseshit.  We do in on the roads around here in Mennonite Country all the time, since we have a lot of horse-drawn wagon traffic..)

Warren herself shit all over Jerome Powell for actually nothing more than that the man is trying to do his job.  Warren should be ashamed of being such a stupid runt, but of course, we know that she is actually very proud of this fact, and lets the world know about this, regularly.   I don't understand how American voters can be so barking crazy as to put a goofus like that in a position of political power.  It boggles the mind.

Anyway - crazy Ms. Warren has even managed to provoke the disgust and ire of old Larry Summers, the Clinton Treasury guy, who is a smart, honest and sensible person.  He knows just how terrible, bad and awful inflation can be.  It is economic cancer of the worst kind - and it was made possible by the irresponsible stupid actions of clowns like Elizabeth Warren and the other brain-dead politicals who seem to be driving US fiscal policy.  They blow up the "fisc", and when the rational economic agents of the good old USA respond accordingly, the Washington twits lash out at the civil authorities who are trying to clean up the hot mess the political fools have caused.

Even the "Editorial Board" at the WSJ has felt it has to comment on how completely idiotic this all is.   Powell is between a big, hard nasty rock, and a very, very hard place.  He and the US Federal Reserve have very little wiggle room now, and they will have to trigger a *growth pause* (or an ugly downturn), in order to try to contain the damage the Democrat irresponsible fiscal policy has caused. 

The Fed has basically no choice - unless it wants to simply not do it's job, which would be really very insane.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-economic-mess-were-in-jerome-powell-federal-reserve-elizabeth-warren-larry-summers-inflation-11658783704?mod=opinion_lead_pos1

We concur with the "E-Board" of the WSJ.  We are in an economic mess.  I am pretty sure we will rocket out of it, much faster than folks think, once we begin bombing Russia.  And we honestly believe, that there will be little choice, but to do this.   If the stupid nation-states don't do it, then the private sector of the world will sadly have to begin to take action.  The gangsters running Russia are insane and have become murder-crazy, out-of-control criminals.  It is worse than Afghanistan.

This world cannot tolerate an entire nuclear-armed nation of criminal thieves and rapists, running rampant across the world.   We will *all* be at war with the Russian Federation, sooner or later.  And although we may lose a few cities, and have to endure a man-made fix to the problem of "global warming", we are pretty sure that this is in our future.   We expect the war to be short, sharp and successful.   And we are now certain it is necessary.

Once the "Russia Problem" is cleaned up, there will be an economic take-off, the likes of which the world has never seen.  By then, it will be too late to obtain attractive equity positions.  You want to buy now, when the blood is still running in Ukrainian streets.

(Orban of Hungary is wrong, also, we believe.   We all have much work to do.  With or without NATO.)

[ July 25, 2022 ] - Hanoi Shan, Vladimir Putin, & The World Crime Syndicate - Maybe it's not a Phillip K. Dick novel - maybe it's another episode in the "Buckaroo Banzai" saga... that one we never got to see?   We are living in it, instead of watching it.   What's going on now, is madness.  It's classical, over-the-top crazy madness, and we suspect the time is coming, where we will *all* have to start hammering those plowshares into B61's.  (The B61 is not an aircraft.  But it uses aircraft...) 

Building B61-series-12's, is not madness.  It is a very good thing, and offers a local antidote to the actions of the madmen and their new World Crime collective.  The FPU (First Production Unit) has already been delivered, and the LEP (Lifetime Extension Program) which will add another 20 years of service life to this most fine device, is now underway and in production.  This is a big milestone, as LANL reports.  Good for LANL.  And good for USA and for NATO.

https://discover.lanl.gov/news/1220-b61-12-reaches-milestone

Pantex folks and the clever boffins at LANL have given us the 12th generation of the B61, a truly fine and wonderful device for the continued maintenace of World Peace.  We have been doing research on a theory - and found more confirming evidence for it again, in research on the excellent work of the Los Alamos lab, and the Sandia folks.   The B61 nuclear device was first developed in 1968 - in the same decade as the extreme technological phase-leap of the fine USA space program.  Interesting times.   Wonderful leaps were made.  There are films-as-videos of the 1965 XB-70 project, which was essentially the test-bed for the Space Shuttle (now a museum-relic..).  Such a curious time of technological lift-off.

The latest upgrade (version 12) of the genius-designed, beautiful-contructed B61, reduces the megaton yield, but improves it's accuracy.   It's so nice how the F-35 can carry and deliver this special package of our-fine-freedom to the very bad people of the world - of which there suddenly seems to be a distrubing new cohort.  

Fortunately, we are already ramping up to produce F-35's "like sausages".  The aircraft is expensive - but it can do amazing things, and can virtually turn invisible to old-style radar.   And it can put a B61 nuke right down onto Putin's house, if it has to.   Right off your toilet, eh, Valdimir?  And you and your henchmen, into a bunch of small particles and hot plasma.  I am sure you understand.)

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/lockheed-s-next-f-35-jet-contract-is-expected-to-be-worth-30-billion-1.1796743

It is very important that Russia stand-down from it's idiotic and absurd murder-mission in Ukraine, and that all the Russian military gangsters be removed completely from Ukrainian lands.  No one wants to see these fine B61-12's get delivered to military sites in Russia.  Peace is so much a better idea than war.

But no one anywhere, anyway, wants to live as a Russian slave.  And this "live as one of Putin's slaves" is the only choice Russian forces are offering.   The entire insane war violates explicit agreements that were made in 1994.  This makes Russia's action illegal.   And it also makes Russia  - in a very real and formal sense - a "state sponsor of terrorism."

Regardless of what Europe does - they are good at talking  - at some point, we are going to have to role up our sleaves, and fix this insane madness that Russia has unleashed on the World.   Everything the Russians say now, appears to be fabricated falsehoods - lies so big and over-the-top, that one has to honestly have doubts about the sanity of most of it's current leaders.

Putin thinks the West is weak and stupid.  It kind of was, yes.  The whole idea of the "Western World" had almost gone away.   NATO seemed a relic of the past, with no real future, and no enemy.   Russia was our ally and our trading partner.  Putin, in his degraded mental state  (we truly believe he is mentally unbalanced), has chosen to throw all this away, and initiate an insane blitzkreig war against a peaceful, trading-nation neighbour, in hopes - again, like Stalin did - of stealing it's food-producing ability.   His actions have caused mass-murder, mass-destruction, and will (this winter), likely cause famine & starvation - especially in Africa.  

None of us thought he would do something so perfectly cruel and absurdly evil as this idiotic war.  We all had a good and working peace - beneficial for everyone.  

But the atrocity of Russian actions, has completely changed the thinking of a *lot* of people.   The actions of this profoundly evil man, have changed the dynamics of the World, and has made it clear, that we must now begin to seriously prepare for war.   Astonishing.

History has shown us repeatedly, with horrific clarity, the foolishness of trusting megalomaniacs who violate international agreements and choose instead to murder whole cities of the innocent.   What Putin is doing now, is not new.   It is nothing new.   Except for one thing...

We all now know it.   And we know what must be done.

[ July 23, 2022 ] - Fun with Dick and Gain - We found an article from February, 1972, about Phillip K. Dick deciding to move to Vancouver, from California.  His comments on human-nature, and our android-future, were interesting.  We've been researching the 1970's, and made this comment:

An article from February, 1972!  Very nice.  Thanx for posting this on
your site.  P. K. Dick wrote "Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep", the
novel which became "BladeRunner".  Interesting how the science-fiction
writers saw our future.  Here we are in 2022, and the wars are beginning,
- both cultural and real.  

Our little analysis enterprise is concerned that we might be on the cusp
of a really nasty economic downturn, rather like the 1930 to 1932 time
period.  We are researching the economics of the 1970's.  Mr. Dick could
see the future - as well as write good stories about it.  The 1970's were a
time of very great change - most of it bad.

Nixon took USA off the gold standard in 1971, because he could not pay
for the Vietnam War, while maintaining any sort of currency link to gold.

This, combined with the 1973 "Arab Oil Shock" (where gasoline prices
doubled, and then doubled again), resulted in a massive inflation, high
unemployment, and reduced economic growth.  Paul Volker eventually
ended the inflation-run, by raising interest rates over 20%, and this
destroyed over-leveraged businesses and indebted households, but
economic sanity was restored.  In  the 1980's - with Ron Reagan's
"Star Wars" projects (to make nuclear-weapon missiles obsolete) and
a 40-year reduction in interest-rates down to below zero, gave us all
the greatest economic boom the world has ever seen in all of human
history.

Then we got the coronavirus plague, the mRNA vaccines, and here we
are now, up to our global eyebrows in debt, and now ramping rates up
to "fight inflation" - by raising everyone's debt-service costs, while also
taking Russia out of the global transactional economy.   This could harm
us all, we worry, in a number of curious ways.

We are thinking that Phillip K. Dick might have written this story we are
now thrashing around within.   It feels a bit like it.   

We don't have moon-rockets or even Space Shuttles - and if not for
Elon Musk, we would not have any spaceships at all.  
NASA dropped the ball, and USA is turning inward to fight with
itself, like an octopus eating it's own arms.  They fight about the "right"
for women to kill their own unborn children.  Is this not madness?

And the Federal Reserve will now *raise* everyone's debt-service costs,
so as to fight rising prices.   Can this possibly work?  It reminds us of
that comment from the 1970's about the Vietnam War: "Fighting for
peace, is like fucking for virginity."

We look at our world now, and think:  "Our leaders don't know Dick."

[ July 22, 2022 ] - A Surfeit of Twos - We seem to be drifting off course, it feels like.  It is possible that Samuel Johnson was right.  It is probably foolish and absurd in the extreme, to write without being paid for it.   I recall reading "Rassalas"  - as a storybook essay in a book I found on the road, on Jarvis Street, outside a collegiate.  Amazing good story - Johnson wrote it in less than a month, in 1759, because he needed the money.  It's a somewhat picaresque adventure, except the hero and his Princess are mostly just curious.  They leave "Happy Valley" because they wish to know the wider world - much as the Buddha did.   They encounter the "Astronomer."  And they talk about how the Astronomer became afflicted with a debilitating ailment, where he came to believe his monitoring of the motions of the Sun, the Moon, and the Stars in the heavens, were necessary, and if he failed to rise and document their actions, they would not move.  His madness was curious, and almost fatal, yet - like Nash, he fought his way back to sanity, and thru his interactions with people, cured himself of his absurd fears, and his burdensome sense of responsibility.

That Johnson could even articulate something so curious, is impressive.  He is remembered for his "Dictionary", and for Boswell's biography of him.  But his greatest triumph was "Rassalas", in my opinion.   He even describes, in the storyline, the mechanism by which heavier-than-air vehicles will one day be created.   (See: " Chapter VI - A Dissertation on the Art of Flying")

https://www.gutenberg.org/files/652/652-h/652-h.htm

In some ways, "Rassalas" is perhaps the first science-fiction story.  It reminds me a bit of "Ringworld", and those great 5-syllable names.   The Prince does not actually build an air-craft to escape his "Happy Valley", but he might of.

But far more interesting, is Johnson's portrait of the formerly-mad Astronomer.   Science is to some degree, like wizardry.   To be a scientist, is to be a bit like Faust.  You want to take command of the Forces of Nature, and make them do your bidding.

And, to some degree, you can.  That's what lets the madness begin to come in.  The "Mad Scientist" of fiction, is not completely a false-stereotype.   Such folks do exist - researchers who have lost objectivity, and have become obsessed, and now behave badly.  

When one gains and possesses power, it must be used wisely, or great tragedy can result.  We all know this - but the knowing about it, and the acting upon that knowledge, can be two different things. 

This binary conflict - knowing what must be done - and then taking action to DO IT - this binary nature, this "tyranny of the two", can affect any one of us.   We can see the first, yet fail to act on the second.   This is a most serious and dangerous kind of:  "non-binary".   If we know - we must act.  The binary action is required.  Knowledge must be translated into action, lest we be like Hamlet, and allow the opportunity to correct a crime, to slip away.

[ July 21, 2022 ] - Strength Thru Joy (in Georgia) - Maybe in Asia "Georgia" also?   St. George fought - and killed - the evil dragon.  "Georgia" is in every culture.   One would think maybe the metaphor implies a conflict with China (dragons and all).  But now we find, that our evil "dragon" that must be slain, resides in Moscow.   World is always offering suprises, isn't it...

[ July 20, 2022 ] - Bootleg Turn - We did stupid stuff as teenagers... mostly with cars.  I recall practicing "Bootleg Turns", where you take your Mom's high-performance car, zoom down a darkened, empty highway, cut the wheel over while simultaneously hitting the emergency brake to lock up the rear wheels.  We saw this on TV or on a movie or something... The idea was that you could execute a fast 180-dgree turn, if being chased, and spin your vehicle around to point in the opposite direction, within just the two-lane blacktop road width.  

Apparently the "Bootleggers" in the US South did this, when being chased by "Revenue Police", according to urban-legend.  (Canadian kids had a curious respect and admiration for the culture of the Southern USA - minus the racism, of course... since we all seemed to like the Blues also...)  We were pretty crazy, truth be told. 

An old friend who has converted all his music collection to MP3's, gave me a Neil Young CD.  It's called "Harvest Moon".   It's pretty good.  My favourite song on it, is about an guy and his old hound-dog named King, who had no fear.  Very much a Canadian kind of song - but it also sounds right out of Deep South, USA.  (We love USA, lets be clear on this, eh?)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7d4cDMiUarA

The title track, "Harvest Moon", has a nice video on *tube.  At time-index 3:55, you can see King jump out of a parked pickup truck.   :D

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n2MtEsrcTTs

Nice music from less crazy times.  But now, these wild, rapid 180-degree full turns, seem to be pretty common in our modern markets.  We have theories (related to the tripwire nature of the machine-algorithms that are used now to harvest funds from the market-players), but no one really knows exactly why markets are so wild twitchy now.

What we know, is that the V-bottom - at least on a short term basis - still remains in fashion.  And the algos have to obviously "gun for stops", if they are going to work, short term.  And they do work, which is fine, since it makes some market action predictable, much more than it really should be.

I honestly think one has to be a bit crazy, to try to trade this current environment.  It's like warfare - lots of fun and excitement, until you get shot in the leg, or your hand, or your head.  Then, you are ruined, and learn fast that warfare is pretty much a rather stupid & terrible thing, full of pain and worthless death.   You watch good friends and trusted comrades get splattered or torn to bits by a shell, and there is just nothing good at all about the experience.   And the folks on Train "Cargo 200", don't even get to learn anything at all - they take home nothing but their own dead flesh, which is little use to anyone, except to offer closure to grieving families.

We are *very* cautious traders/investors.   We have to be, so we don't get whacked and ruined, which is what this kind of market can do.   The great monetary stimulus is going to run in reverse now, for a while.   And rates will drift up to normal levels.    This must happen, and most certainly will create a whole raft of opportunities - but it may ruin a few folks also.    Lots and lots of trades are very crowded now, and wild swings are needed to clean out the bad and the foolish.

I dropped into a Ford dealer yesterday.  They had a single new "Black Diamond" Bronco on the lot.  It was a "Demo", and could not be bought.   It's $60K Cdn, once another one comes in which can be bought, which is a bit silly.  It was a black-top convertible.  There are shortages of units with hardtops.  This is not the crappy little "Bronco Sport", this is the full-frame, full-sized unit, with big-tires and fender skirts to catch the gravel and mud.    It sports a 2.3 litre engine, which makes it smaller displacement than our 2.5 litre 4x4 Honda CRV  (which is made in Canada).   My F-150, with the 5-litre V8 is a bigger unit, but it costs me $200 in petrol, to run up north and back, now.  It's over $250 to fill the tank.  This is insane.

The Ford Bronco (the big one, with the proper frame), is a win, in our opinion.  Ford is making an F-150 "Raptor", which retails for $109,000 US dollars, apparently, although this number might be wrong.   I read it on some internet site, so it might be bogus.  This price also seems insane.

But these are insane times.  I remember, maybe 14 or 15 years ago, trading BAC, and in one trade, made half the price of my old, previous F-150.   If you want to run a farm in Canada, you must have some non-farm sources of income, since farming is not a huge cash generating business-model, typically.  I think I paid $12K for a used 2005 F-150.   And of course it was trading bank-stocks that provided roughly half the needed cash.

So, by this metric, I should be able to make $30K in a single trade to fund half a Bronco?  Somehow, I seriously doubt that this is possible, without taking on the old Gambler's Risk-of-Ruin.   And there is no Lehman Bros., anymore.    I actually did some work for those boys and girls, early on.  Such a curious world.  The dreams (and nightmares) of an older fellow, are the memories of his younger days...   :)

UPdate:  Here is a paper we just read.  Stock returns data from 1963 to 2020, is compared to T-Bill returns.  Controlling for all the usual factors, 500 biggest stocks beat T-bill returns by about 4% per year.  Make it 1000 biggest stocks, and it still works.  But pull out the best 3 years, and the execess returns over T-bills drops to less than 2%.   This paper is by a clever fellow in Edmonton, working for a "Frontier" operation.  The .PDF can be downloaded and read, only 13 pages.  Nice piece of research, which contradicts more of the usual academic blather.  :)

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4143649

Stock investing works, and it works - consistantly - better than buying Government bonds.

But watch out for those "Bootleg-Turns"!

[ July 19, 2022 ] - Sunset Curve - Take some time to consider the "Phillips Curve".  Original work by New Zealand Economist Dr. William Phillips, which was detailed in a 1958 article, using mostly 19th century English data.   He later updated the research using 20th century data up to 1948, which purported to show the relationship between changes (increases) in money wages, and the change (decreases) in unemployment rate.   The idea is that rising money wages (not real wages), leads to, or at least co-relates with reduction in national unemployment rate.  This was shown to be the case, in 1920-24 Germany's experiment with deliberate hyperinflation.  It *sort-of* seemed to be the case with Canada's inflation experience in the 1960's, but did not seem to hold during the 1973-1980 "Oil Shock" driven inflation.  

That nasty "Arab Oil Shock"-provoked inflation, which was also characterized by runaway, out-of-control ramp-up in Federal spending, was characterized by increasing rates of both inflation and unemployment.  The data suggested, in that environment, that the Phillips Curve was an artifact which had little useful predictive or even explanitory value. 

It was bogus.

But in more recent (post-modern?) times, the relationship does still seem to be apparent.   In the USA, we have now very low and falling unemployment, combined with rising inflation and evidence of rising money-wage (ie. not inflation-adjusted "real" wage) rates.    And it still represents a modelized picture-of-the-world which influences Central Bank thinking, many believe.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phillips_curve

You can read about and listen to the music of "Sunset Curve", an indy band from Calif., circa 1995.  They were scheduled to play the Orpheum, July 22, 1995.  They sang this song "Now or Never", and you can use the little "mPlayer" box at browser screen bottom-right, to play the first 27 seconds of this quite good tune (if you a running a Linux box, and Firefox Quantum Extended Support Release.  Not sure if this works on Macbook Moneymountain or Windows xx.yy.  We gave up on that shit.  :)  )

https://julie-and-the-phantoms.fandom.com/wiki/Now_or_Never

(Ok, yeah, "Sunset Curve" are actually a fictional band.  Right?  Get it?  "Fictional" - kinda like the Phillips Curve, that the Central Bankers are using.  Here is the *tube clip below - with shameless Netflix adcrap ...)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q6bFYaVXMiY

We can work cutting down the trees-of-ignorance all day, but we never manage to actually get out of the great Forest of Foolishness, do we.

"Sunset Curve" indeed.

[ July 18, 2022 ] - Scary Monsters - Our AI models keep pointing straight down.  It's is disturbing, since we are believing them to be someone wrong, since they are - well, they are computer models.  I feel like Number 6, in that old British TV show, "The Prisoner". .. somewhat discombobulated.

We watched the big runup in Bank shares on Friday, and this morning - only to see the DJIA fade away all it's gains, and the TSX start to follow.  Banks are fading.  TSX (Toronto Index) was up over 300 points, but is also fading now.   Bank shares were all up almost a couple of dollars, but are fading now.  "Arrgh.." said the pirate.

These up-runs in price, followed by retraces, are looking like 19th century "bear-market rallies", which can be quite vicious, and yet are counter-trend events.   I have fear, no question.  The AI stuff is better than we are - and it is a tad disturbing.    We have a real fear that guys like Peter Schiff might be right.   We own some gold-mine stock (not physical gold), but both have been poor investments.  Gold is down, and gold-miners are falling like autumn leaves - or leaves eaten by worms.  Not pretty.

https://schiffgold.com/peters-podcast/fed-chair-powell-perpetuates-keynesian-myths/

https://schiffgold.com/peters-podcast/peter-schiff-a-tale-of-two-dollars/

Schiff is famous for calling - most accurately - the 2007-2008 Financial Crisis (Bad Models, Bad Bonds & USA Housing Market Fraud crash).  I have a video of him making the call, and being harshly ridiculed by a witless TV commentator, and some Real-Estate "Analyst" with a name that ended in a vowel.   (Beware the guys whose family-names end in vowels.  I am not sure why this absurd indicator works - but it just does.  Hilarious.   Viz: "My Name is Sam Scamo, and have I got a Scheme for you!"  Our advice:  Run away.)

Schiff is running a "physical gold" promotion website.   He might be right.   Holding GLD ETF's or GOLD shares or whatever kind of metal-backed financial paper is on offer, might turn out to be sub-optimal (which is investment-market-newspeak for: "shite").

We are a bit "at sea" now, as our models are really giving a clear signal ("Market is headed down, things are REALLY BAD, and you should SELL").   We honestly feel this is overdone. 

We actually think it is a LOT overdone, and that all will be well - sort of.   But we are *VERY* aware that our "Buffetian Optimism" could be plain wrong.   So far recently, it truly has been.   For what it's worth, we can say, we should have just followed the damn models, and pulled the big trigger into full "risk-off" mode.  

But we have these "long-wave" models which are still quite positive, and suggest that this downturn is a typical "shit-house cleansing event", and that our historical analysis indicates that these sort of events must occur - regularly - in order to keep the markets functioning fairly, and with operation effectiveness.   Everything is too expensive.

Cars are too expensive.  Taxes are too high.  Houses in Canada are too expensive for working kids out of school, in their first jobs, to even begin to afford, without help from the "Bank of Mom & Dad".  In a country the size of Canada, (10 million sq. km) with a population (38 million), which basically same as  New York State, Massachusetts and Pennsylvania  (roughly 39 million people), this is simply insane.  We live on top of mountains of wealth.  We have it all - land, minerals, fertile farmland, and clean water from the ground.  We have forests and technology and everything we need to exploit it all.

But, We have a Federal Government which collects extreme levels of taxes, creates very rich politicians and "civil servants" in Ottawa, and who spend most of their time trying to think up new ways to increase (even more) the tax-burden on Canadians.  Result:  A high-tax, low productivity economic structure, characterized by restrictions, regulations, costs and controls that limit many of the benefits of any sort of risk-taking, entreprenural activity.   

We have always felt, that if we could just get the goddamn Federal politicos out of our collective hair (and wallets and bank accounts), we could and would look more like Switzerland, and less like Argentina,

So, we have reason to be very long-term positive on the Canadian economic performance.  Yet we never seem to see that possibility of enhanced performance, translated into a share-price take-off in this country - except for Banks and Telephone companies.     We should have the greatest pharmaceutical and aviation industries in the world.  Instead, we have scammy little failures, and Bombardier ( a moneypit of Federal funds which have been consumed, and will never be returned - rather like our experiments with our auto-industry.)   To be fair, the auto-industry has done quite well - once we started building Japanese cars here.  (We have Toyota and Honda factories in Ontario.   And the Toyota's and Honda's they build, are very good.)

We have (and really need!) a free-trade arrangement with the USA (which is a very good thing indeed), but the Americans can not be trusted to keep to a deal once they make it (as the Iranians and the Afghans have discovered, of course), and so life here remains curiously sub-optimal.

Anyone who builds or invents anything of significance or major economic substance, needs to head down south, to get the funds to make it fly (or work, or get made, and/or get sold).

We had this one big success story - Nortel - which got captured by criminals and pocket-filling fraudsters, liars, morons and cheaters.  The OSC was never actually able to put the bastards who destroyed Nortel in jail (the OSC folks honestly tried to, but were not able to prove criminial intent, only that the Nortel management were just fucking stupid beyond human belief - which is not a crime, sadly.  Maybe it should be?  <big sigh>)

So, we remain positive and hopeful for Canada (and Canadian share prices), yet it is a hard road to travel, at times.   The soil of this economic landscape is stony and far too often, is rather like cement.    Perhaps we should use dynamite?   Or maybe small fission-devices?   

Our great fear now, is that the world is about to enter a significant "de-globalization" phase, if not an outright open global war.    The crash of that Ukraine Antonov carrying Serbian mortar ammo for Bangladesh (does *anyone* believe that absurd storyline?) in Greece airspace, suggests that the Russian-Ukraine War has already shifted into Europe.   

We remain Warren-Buffet-style optimists, and yet our AI, with it's pessimistic forecasts, has done a better job at calling the path of recent future events, that we have.   And this is a tad scary.

[ July 15, 2022 ] - Dr. Havenstein Would Be Proud - Really.  Dr. Rudolf Havenstein was the Chairman of the German "Reichsbank", during the 1920-1923 German hyperinflation.   The German hyperinflation was probably the most interesting and significant economic experiment ever conducted.  It was not completely without success.  It created a continous economic boomtime, with curious prosperity for a bankrupt nation, with zero dot zero, zero percent unemployment.  Dr Havenstein steadfastly denied that his massive money-printing operation was the reason for the German hyperinflation.  Seriously.  He clung to his curiously wrong model, until he was replaced by Dr. Hjalmar Schacht, who was brought in to repair the extreme damage Havenstein had wrought.

Wrong models are common in economics.  The most recent was the idiotic madness of the "risk models" of the 2007-2008 "Great Financial Crisis", where the curious belief was created, that risk could be sliced and diced, and managed, so that low-risk securities could be manufactured from a high-risk, hyper-correlated situation (a massive real-estate fraud, where $200,000 houses were up-valued to $800,000 houses, mortgages were granted, and folks with little or no income could obtain mortgages on the upshifted valuations [since they had excess equity].)   The idea was that a global downturn could not happen, since it would be a 5 or 6 standard-deviation event, which was believed unlikely.  The logic was absurd, as if all the people on a sinking ship, would not and/or could not, all run to the same side of the ship.   The models were wildly wrong, but very profitable for the folks who promoted them, until they were not.  It was another fascinating, "wrong model" situation, much like Havenstein's world-view of how inflation happened.

We have another curious situation.  Central Bankers believe that rate-rises are "deflationary", because of various reasons that do make sense.  Except they miss some of the very key phenomenon, that are painfully obvious to practical folks who are empircal analysts.  Rate rises are just cost increases, to an economy running on floating-rate debt.

Viz:  Recent info on BNN/Bloomberg.  We quote from the article:

"Based on the Canadian Real Estate Association's average home price of $711,000 in May, a  variable rate of 2.7 percent will result in monthly mortgage payments of roughly $2,845.  At 3.7 percent, which (Leah Zlatkin, a licensed mortgage broker) considers the best mortgage rate now, these payments will now total $3,168, an increase of $323 per month."

Now, there it is in black and white.  You cannot argue with this.  It is a simple financial fact.  Our banks we deal with, have all raised their "prime rates" (on which all revolving credit-lines and demand-loans are based) by 1%.  Their "Prime Rate" is now 4.70%.  Most credit lines for businesses and households are "Prime plus 2 %" or more.   This will be a serious cost-of-living increase for many economic entities.

So, what we have, is a "PRICE INCREASE" of a key, critical price, that EVERYONE WHO HAS ANY FLOATING RATE DEBT MUST PAY. 

One has to ask:  How exactly, does RAISING PRICES TO EVERYONE WITH DEBT cause the inflation in our economy to be REDUCED?

Answer: It does not.   Raising interest-rates does NOT reduce inflation pressure.  It actually ADDS to inflation pressure.  (Some called this the:  "backward bending IS-LM Supply-curve model".)  Everyone with floating-rate debt, has INCREASED COSTS which will most likely be passed forward as INCREASED WAGE DEMANDS, and INCREASED PRODUCT PRICES.

We saw this happen in the 1970's.   A lot.  Raising Bank of Canada bank-rates did *not* damp down inflation.   The opposite appeared to happen.  The banker-economists had the wrong model.

We learned, that if you want to stop inflation with interest-rate increases, you have to raise rates high enough to destroy households and destroy businesses.  Volker did this, with his 20% rates.  Laws against "usury" had to be re-written, as demand loan-rates often went above 25%, a statutory limit that was on the books of many States and Provinces.

And this is more than just "painful".  It is explicitly destructive.   This is the only way it works.  You have to raise rates high enough to destroy demand.  You *must* create a recession, or the rate-rise efforts are *not* deflationary, they are - maybe -  *inflationary*.   Understand?  It depends on the economic structure, currently in place.

And this is the rub.   By just raising rates a bit, you only add fuel to the fire of inflation, since you are just raising the price of input-money.   And if the inflation is "cost-push", and not "demand-pull", then increased rates may REALLY ADD to inflation pressure, and *seriously over-stimulate* an inflationary psychological reactive response, on the part of both businesses and household-consumers.   We believe this is what is happening in Argentina, right now.  As usual, they are in real trouble, due to their curiously bad government policy choices.   (Yet another textbook case, of how not to run an economy...)  

FFS.  Does no one ever learn anything from history?   :(

[ July 14, 2022 ] - My "Inner Trader" says: "Nuke'em Till They Glow" - and the arrogant bastard also suggested - pretty clearly - that I dump *all* the bank stocks, once the AI model started pointing downwards.   Well, we did not, since the bank valuations and their Basel capital ratios all look damn fine.  They should be able to skate thru the mini-depression that is coming.  It will be a not-so-mild recession, and it probably will vapourize a lot of businesses.  But "Inner Trader" was correct (as usually he is.  Such a curiously productive inner dialogue...)

This planet has too much debt, that will *never* be repaid.  We can say there will be defaults, with the same certainty that we can say the sun will rise tomorrow. 

The Cdn banks seem to be pretty well provisioned for the harsh downturn that is being programmed into our world.  So do the US ones.  But their share prices are being reset, and this sucks (really, like a low-pressure weather system sucks.  Remember, the wind does not "blow", it actually "sucks".  Such is reality.)   Europe, of course, will be fucked, like it usually is.  This is sad. 

("Inner Trader" says;  "Poor Europeans.  They did that big Euro currency union, and everyone thought they were all gonna get DMs in their wallets...  Instead, they got Lira!"  [The Euro slipped *below* parity with the US dollar today.  Oh my.  I remember when 1 Euro was $1.50 US.  Not any more...]  And it will get worse, we are told.  This winter, many Germans are expected to be heating their houses with wood...  [ Like they did in the 1500's.]   Note: Nothing wrong with heating with wood - except you need to own several acres of forest, in order to make it a sustainable process.  And you need more than just a chainsaw - you need to have a diesel tractor - and it is difficult to make your own diesel fuel.  But in Canada, there is more oil in the Alberta oil-sands, than in Saudi Arabia.  It's just a tad expensive to extract it.   But it's there, so we will be ok.   But it will be a hard row to hoe, for the Euro-folk. )

I remember Gerald Ford and Jimmy Carter.  Lightweights.  And the Iran "Hostage Crisis", and the election of Ron Reagan.   That got things fixed.   Reagan was a damn fine fellow, and a wise and effective statesman.   He pissed-off the Democrats so much, because he spoke truth. 

The Democrats seem to always want to deal in lies and fraud.  As if a woman, has the "right" to murder her unborn baby.  What a fucking load of nonsense.  Where the fuck does it say that, in the US Constitution?  We don't care either way about abortion.  Do it or not.  Your choice.  But don't bullshit the world, and say that child-killing is a fucking "human right".  The fucking Democrats look like brain-dead, immoral fools for behaving the way they are now and saying stupid shit like this.  

They should just drop this "females-have-the-right-to-kill-their-baby" issue, and let each State decide what it wants to do about abortions and child-murder.  The ancients used to dump deformed children out on hillsides, out in the country.  Hence the famous story of "Oeidipus the King", who murdered his father, fucked his mother, and then put out his own eyes, when he learned of his awful, sinful crimes.  

The ancient-world stories will be alive, long after all the names of all the shit-for-brains politicians of this current time, are lost to the memory of history.  

Because those ancient stories, they deal with the harsh-truths.

The Ron Reagan years were a good time.  The stupid Berlin Wall was smashed to bits, and the evil, rotting filth of Communism was shown to be the economic garbage that every sane person knew it was.  Karl Marx could not shit thru his asshole, without terrible pain.  He had bad hemorrhoids.  So he sat on his sore backside down in British Museum, and he shit thru the nib of his pen.  Read "Das Kapital" and learn the truth of this assertion.  It is fiction - the made-up work of an angry, bitter shit-artist.

We got lucky in the 1980's, and ditched the toxic-garbage political stupidity of the 1970's, and got things working right.  And we did it WITHOUT warfare.   And the result was a runaway economic boomtime, unlike any that had ever been seen in all of human history.   Ron called the cruel communist fraudsters running Russia for what they truly were: "an evil empire".  And he was spot-on correct. 

And now, the Putinists - corrupt gangster scum of the first order - like the dirt-bags that licked Stalin's shit, are now back to pure-evil empire building, by murdering the innocents of Ukraine.  It is evil, like Hitler's death camps were evil.   It must be fixed.  And it will be, one way or another. 

And we will know no economic peace and security, until we deal harshly with the warmongering mother-killers currently running this assault project.  They must be erased and ended, at all costs. 

It's so weird - like we have crawled up the greasy pole of progress - and are now tired, and are slipping back down, all the way back down to the foolish hellstorm politics of militarism that drove World War Two.    Putin's "Big Lie", that there are "Nazis" in Ukraine, taps into this sad reality.  There are no Nazis in Ukraine, but there are Nationalists - just like there are in every Nation.  If we let them all be killed, then the Nations of Europe will be next, as it will embolden the evil forces that now control Russia.

It's madness.  And tragedy.  But common as hellfire, like the great sweeping broom of history.

[ July 13, 2022 ] - Better Late Than Never - (Tiff launches a big "one"... )   Bank of Canada boosts short-term bank rate up 100 basis points - ie. a full one percent.  Big move, mkt expected 75 bp (3/4 of a percent).  This was probably his only sane option, given the sense that has developed that inflation is in runaway mode.  We don't believe it is, but we have to admit, we have been wrong to hold our bank stocks.  Market (and our models) said to: "dump and run", but we elected to hold, since we like the big dividends (and we have this curious desire to eat, and actually pay our bills...).

Mr. Macklem basically had no choice, given that the Central Bank here has a clear mandate to protect the currency, and not let stupid fiscal-action put us into a downward spiral of currency valuation collapse matched with an upward spiral of material, commodity and house-cost price inflation.  Such double-helix linked "death spirals" are similar to the flat-spin that a high-performance aircraft can enter, if the flight envelope is punctured by extreme control inputs from an unwise pilot.    You poke thru the curve, and you spin down to crash & burn, which is a worst-case outcome to be avoided, of course.  

It's a more lagged process in the world of economics, and the burning of the economy can take place in the silent nightmare-space of each household's economic picture.  It's like Tolstoy said about how each happy family is similar, but each unhappy family is different in the myriad ways in which it's unhappiness can be made manifest.   

Bad economics is painful and destructive to each household and each person, but often in unique and curiously different ways.   Good economics requires stability, which then allows businesses and households to have the ability to create and execute upon medium and long-range plans, which are generally the difference between having a happy, prosperous outcome, and a f*cking sh/tshow of misery, pain, poverty and self-destruction.  (Very Russian, yes?) 

Similar to another aphorism we like:   "Once you've tasted Black (ink), it's hard to go back!"

There is great joy in being cash-flow positive, and being resilient enough to withstand idiotic market action (which happens with remarkable regularity lately).

We expect the bank-stock valuations to recover, because the banks are going to just coin the cash, within this new, rising-rate environment.  We expect a flat yield curve (with periods of inversion, no doubt), since the long-term forecast is for mild rates, and mild recession.  The bond market probably has this figured correctly, and with short-rates up to sane levels, each bank which is able to maintain the quality of it's credit profile, should do just fine.   And this is likely. 

Folks in Canada don't default on their mortgages typically.   It is mostly governments here that go "under water" and "into the hole".  

We have decided to name our big government deficit the "trudeau" - which means "water hole" in French.  If you are 'under water' and 'in-the-hole', then you have a "trudeau".  Canada has always had problems with having "trudeau's".   They seem to be part of the general problem of Canada.   Our State spends more than in takes in, despite the high-level of taxes here (ie. 13% sales tax on basically *all* economic transactions) - the HST (which foreign folks tend to call the "Holy Shit Tax"), since when they buy something, and find that 13 percent vigorish attached to the final cost, that is generally the reaction: "WTF?  13 percent tax!  Holy Shit!".

And now, into this high-tax environment, we will now fight inflation, by raising the price of money.  And this is hilarious, since we did this, back in the 1970's, and it basically only worked, once we raised rates enough (the market actually did this), up to around 20% level, and provoked a business-destroying mini-depression.  I recall this well, as I was starting out on my own, and I recall sitting in a big restaurant at the top of a Toronto skyscraper in the very early 1980's, eating an expensive lunch by myself, and noticing that there was only one other table in the room that had guests.  The whole place was empty, except for all these waiters in suits, a table of 3 worried looking business men, and me, on the other side of the room, eating my lobster-bisque soup, and a warm bread-bun with butter, sipping a coffee and reading my newspaper. 

I looked about 14, and decided I enjoyed being an independent consultant, since I seemed to be able to operate in a counter-cyclic manner.  I was busy and generating serious billable hours, while others were being let go, and businesses were failing left and right.  I was working for an oil company, on a computerization project.  It was a strange time of very big change. I had quit a regular job, and started my own small consulting practice.  The economy was in free-fall.

A year later, I was building a computer database for an investment firm, automating and data-capturing these big legal-sized "greensheets" that detailed syndication characteristics of stock flotations.  It was a ton-o-fun, actually.  I learned new stuff, every day.   A bit later I remember I bought my first shares - a board lot of a new issue, that was "British Telecom".  I remember reading the BT prospectus, and I realized: "What? These crazy Brit guys are actually *selling* their national phone company!  If it gets run like a sane, normal company, instead of a bloated government-owned cost-plus regulated monopoly, then this thing will just piss money!"   They let you buy board lots (100 shares) on an installment-plan.  I took all the cash I had, and bought 100 shares for 700 dollars.  On the first day of trading, it doubled in price to $14 a share.   Like and idiot, I sold it (it went to $40 later on), but I was hooked.  "Good game." I recall thinking...

It's really been a funny ride.   I was always busy when the world was falling to bits, since no one calls in a consultant or a fixer, unless they have sailed their ship onto the rocks, or a storm is hammering them to pieces, and the board-boys realize they need to make some serious changes, before they are all destroyed by events beyond their control.   Good technology allowed a lot of bad business decisions to be fixable.  I would execute by deploying good technology, quickly and at managable costs.   Fun times, but busy.

So, I am looking forward to the coming deluge, since all my life, I seem to have done best, during  the worst of times (and not so great, during the best of times).   I've never been comfortable during boom-times, and tend to miss the blowout runups.   But when it is crashing down, then that seems to be par for the course I have always played on.   Curious. 

We are looking at another meltdown in bank-shares today.   And given the financial strength of the banks, this seems overdone.  But bank stocks trade like infinite-duration bonds - very, very sensitive to interest rate regime-change.   But the bond-market is notorious for really, really stupid pricing - pricing so wrong, that it can be silly.  Long before there was crypto-coin and NFT's and other stupid sh/t like that, there were deep-deep discount bonds of companies and countries that were expected to die.  

Often, they did not die.  I knew a guy who scooped up deep discount stuff, and made crazy potfulls of money.  You would buy the crap for 10 or 20 cents on the dollar, and if your analysis is right, and the entity does not die, you end up with bonds which get redeemed at par, and you make 5 or 10 times your money.  Or, you loose your whole investment. 

Talk about Monte-Carlo methods, eh?  :)

We think we are entering a similar regime now.   There will be failures and breakdowns, and ugly times.   And we are a tad offside, like most.  Bank shares in USA are down typically 25%.  That is a hard downshift.  It might break the gearbox, but we don't think so.  Not this time.

But there will be changes.  There will be BIG changes everywhere, and rather soon, we suspect.  The changes will build and feed upon themselves.   Good property will become even more valuable, as the not-so-good stuff is discounted down.   Governments will change.  Old faces will be gone, and new, younger ones will appear, and they will act with both strength and wisdom.   Or they will disappear also.   We are moving from fat and stupid, to lean and firm.  We have to.

The USA is in a time of crisis now, but it does not have to be that way.  We suspect there will be a mass-movement away from woke-folk idiocy, and psycho-sexual insanity that seems to be infecting the USA's children.  The old players will be pushed from the stage, and newer, younger ones will take their place.  The puke-points will all be hit, and regime-change will happen - everywhere - even in (especially in) China and Russia.  

Time is on our side.  But we all need to stay healthy.

And the world will eat more sushi.   Really.  If you are TOO FAT, you should EAT LESS.  Some things really are that simple.  If your STOCKS HAVE GONE DOWN, you must alter your investment strategy, and ensure you BUY STOCKS THAT ARE GOING UP.   (And note the long-term picture of the Cdn Bank stocks.  They are volatile has the dickens, but they trend up.  No single entity can own more than 10% of a Cdn Bank.  They are - by law - widely held, and this and the OSFI, keeps them solid and honest.  They paid their dividends, even during the 1930's.

Hope this helps.  :)

[ July 12, 2022 ] - Yield Curve Inverts Hard - Ok, so the 2-year US Treasury Note is yielding 3.04% this morning, and the 10-year US Treasury Note is yielding 2.91%, and this despite an auction for a bunch of 10-year US Government paper taking place today (the increased supply, usually pushes down the price a bit, and with bonds, as price moves down, yield moves up.  Verstehe?)  So, to see short-duration yields above the yields on longer-term paper, tends to be a no-bullsh/t indicator for *Recession* or basic, old-fashioned economic slowdown.  Now, driving around Ontario, one can see that the place is booming - but I was hitting tourist towns on warm, sunny July days.   And Canada is an edge-condition environment.  The market-moving action is always south of the border - except for oil and other energy commodities - which themselves are looking weak.  August-contract WTI oil is down $7.77/bbl, at last check, putting it in the $96 and change range.  Given that it was 102 and a bit, yesterday, and earlier this AM, that is a pretty hefty downtick.

So, a fairly serious economic storm is incoming, we fear.   With European energy supply looking at risk, and Putin's Terrorist Campaign in Ukraine running hard, with the blood of the innocent literally running in city streets, the investment climate is fraught with new, open-ended risks.   Russia will have to be declared a "State Sponsor of Terrorism", and probably we are already at war with them - except our various political poltroons just don't realize it yet.  

Our bank stocks have been slammed, and we believe are crazy good value right now, since we expect that the ferocious downturn that is being programmed-in, will require a hard pause on the rate-rise plans - which will probably come around Sept/Oct timeframe.   These Central-Bank boys have slammed their foot on the brake - but the hellstorm that is now appearing in the rear-view mirror - and is approaching at ramming speed - will almost certainly require a re-think in strategy, once it starts hitting the labour markets.

So many folks forget that Central Bankers cannot *set* medium and longer-term interest rates.   Those rates (yields) are set by market action, and the market is predicting that interest rates will be staying low, for a long time.

We actually see something that looks more like the 1930's developing, rather than the 1920's or the 1960's.   Most of what's on offer now, is expensive and dishonest - from crypto-currency, to "Climate-Change" motivated ESG-style investing, SPAC's and the Grand Internet of Awful Advertising.  The new computer technology used to be disruptive and beneficial, driving down costs and increasing opportunity for many.   Now, it is more likely to be used to monitor citizen actions, track individual and group behaviour, manipulate public opinion, sway elections, cheat people out of their money, and execute classical "blackmail" actions which require ransoms to be paid.  

The internet has turned to shit.  

The time you spend in front of a screen, is pure, old-fashioned, nose-to-the-grindstone annoying *work*.   People are beginning to recognize this, more and more.  It is also risk-laden.

We have noticed that we are *not* getting significant real, physical improvements anywhere now.  We are not even close to any kind of operational fusion power, and solar and wind-power energy is laughable, as it is a tiny and expensive fraction of the energy needs a modern nation has.

At the very least, we should be building *fleets* of new nuclear fission reactors, if we are hoping to actually convert away from the petroleum-driven global economy.   But the only place this is happening, is in China.   So, much of the economic-future planning efforts, appear to be bogus and off-track.  We don't have hoverboards or any kind of anti-gravity devices, and we don't even have flying taxi's (despite some noble attempts).    All we have built are cheap computers, and VR nonsense that is only economically successful if it offers pornography.  Pretty sad, really.

This atrophication of effective scientific research, and the related engineering-science, means we cannot move forward globally, without we revert to the old models - instead of everybody gets better off (ie. the "Green Revolution" in crop-yields being a good example), we can expect to see harsh competition for resources - some will be better off, and others will become poorer - and/or just be killed off.  This is grim.   There is a grim and violent future ahead of us now, and we are concerned we will not get bailed out by technological fixes this time.    We have exploited all the existing and possible improvements.  

Quantum computing might give us better encryption security - but that's about it.   Our space-travel technology is back to where it was in the 1960's, and we only seem to be able to explore, by using one-way travelling robots, which can send us pictures.   There is little gain from that sort of exploration.

We suspect Nature herself, is programming us for a major conflict.  It may have already started, and will eventually involve all of us.   It's probably likely to be a "Malthus Event", which will re-balance the population-growth and technologically-sustainable-population curves.  This may be a very grim time, for a very great many.  Big diebacks will have to take place, at some point.

Rather than limit, restrict and dial-back human effort and creative activity to support "Climate Initiatives", we should perhaps seek to develop process and procedures to encourage and facilitate significant technological progress.   We now actually *need* technological jumps, which can allow us to survive comfortably (and with prosperity), in lethal, hostile environments.  Elon Musk's plan to colonize Mars should probably become a global priority - because it would drive real technological progress.  

We seriously are going to really *need* to have some major leaps in technological capability, and rather soon, regardless of what the Earth's climate does.  "Climate Change" is noise.

Our best scientists and thinkers and builders need to move away from the virtual wasteland of the internet., and the silly, limit-action efforts to restrict human activity that is the ESG model.

Want to save the World?  And how to do it?

The answer is probably:  More lab-time, and less screen-time.

[ July 10, 2022 ] - Russian Spy-Guys Try to Kill the World? - I go away for a few days, up north, and a tsunami of sh/t washes over us all.  It's quite awful in a curious way - the murder of Shinzo Abe, by a "lone gunman" who actually had to make his own gun (in silly, unarmed Japan, where security is offline, it appears) was truly awful.   We liked Abe, and were very impressed he suggested Japan allow US nuclear weapons to be located on Japan territory.  That was a very good idea - and PM Kishada of course said no.  So, Japan will be (eventually) overrun by China - or be reduced to economic poverty.   You are either strong, or you are weak, and get crushed and/or killed.   Abe's murder was a tragedy on par with what happened to Jack Kennedy.  (Were both orchestrated by Russian agents?   Hard to believe otherwise...  Abe's killer appears to be a manipulated stooge, similar to Lee Oswald. )

And the one good European leader, Boris Johnson, gets back-stabbed by his own Finance Minister, Rishi Sunak.  Pathetic.   Brit Tories couldn't run a f&cking lemonade stand, without trying to fight over who was the boss.   It's a sad sight to see.   Mr. Sunak appears to have turned hard against his boss, and it all shows why loyalty is not just important - it is everything.

The Tories have probably shot themselves - not in the foot - but in the gut.  As a political party, they will now endure an ugly, tragic and slow political death, that will hand the UK to Stammer-guy of the Left.  What a foul, nasty and tragically unhelpful sh/tshow of foolishness.,.  Just so unnecessary.

And while I was away, the old Rogers/Fido cell-phone/internet service crashed and burned - supposedly due to a mass software update on their routers.  So we have to believe the Rogers company is staffed by a bunch of foolish fumbling folks, who cannot actually execute a software upgrade successfully?  Probably not.  Was it was an attack?   The *entire national net* was taken offline & was shut down.  My phone would show either "No Service", or would show 4 bars of signal, but when I tried to make a call, the phone would try for a minute, and then report "Call Ended" without even making a ring at the other end. 

Eventually, in the evening, I was able to call my nephew (who had the same area code as me), but I still could not call the farm - land-line or cell-phone.   I had him contact the farm, which he did.  He had no internet, but his Bell service worked.   But he could not call me - but I could call him, and he reported all was well at the ranch.   Serious sh/t, since none of the debit-card terminals or ATMs were working in the nearby town.   We suspect the Rogers-Shaw merger is dead like Mr. Abe, and the UK Tories.

Is Putin and his evil-nasty FSB (the KGB's new name) behind all this awful action?  Unclear.  But something is funny, since the Japan cellphone service company, KDDI, was also hit by a similar outage, only a little more than a week ago.   This seems most curious.    If Rogers was hacked, they have decided to lie, and tell the world, they were not.  Everyone lies now.   It's sad.

After only taking 4 days off, to work on a building project at the "Northern Office", I have returned to a much changed world.  (Abe was probably on track, to resume his role as the LDP leader and Japan Prime Minister, as Kishida is doing such a vacant and confused job.)  Johnson of the UK was the strongest and most sensible of those supporting Ukraine, and he was also the smart fellow who said UK needed to increase the size of it's nuclear weapons arsenal.  That was a wise and good decision. But it made him a real threat, so he had to go.   This is how 21st century warfare was predicted to be, by the way.

Non-nuclear nations are weak and irrelevant players on the world stage.  Note that both Canada and Japan - two weak nations with very limited military abilities - were the two nations hit with the cell-phone/internet-provider outages - less than two weeks apart.  Both nations hide under the skirts of the Big Mama USA, for our nuclear-attack response - though of course, both nations have the ability to put devices together, if they chose to do so.

Perhaps Russian agents are not behind this current series of tragic, destructive events.  But it just smells funny. 

The UK Tories might have simply self-destructed, as Tories are often seen to do (they seem to really have trouble with the concept of party loyalty.)  One learns in any organization, that loyalty to the organization is the highest, most critical requirement, to ensure continued operational success of the entity.   Without loyalty, a group of people cannot work together at all. and begin to fight among themselves.   People are mostly insane, selfish and rather stupid.   They prefer fantasy to reality, and are always willing to be cruel and unwise.  History teaches us this over and over again.

But my "Inner Trader" laughs, and says simply:  "Remember how the First World War, was begun by some Russian-backed Serbian terrorist from the Black Hand, murdering the Archduke Ferdinand and his wife?   This killing of Mr. Abe, the best leader the Japanese have had in 40 years, combined with the crafted-removal of UK's Boris Johnson based on media-puffed fake "scandals" ( and his dis-loyal brown-shirt brown-boys), combined with two successful take-downs of weak-nation internet/cellphone networks, sure makes for an interesting cocktail.  We are supposed to drink this all down, and believe it was just coincidence?  When you look at this hot-mess drink, and add in the latest China Covid lockdowns, it just does not smell very nice, or appear to be something that a sane person could swallow..."

Doing searches on "Sunak", I found this interesting summary on Buzzfeed, from 2020, where Mr. Sunak is described as being "fiercely loyal" to Boris Johnson.  Oh really?

https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/boris-johnson-cabinet-reshuffle?bfsource=relatedmanual

Absolutely hilarious.  Why do I hear that old "Sex Pistols" song in my head... "God Save the Queen" playing quietly ?    "No future for you.  England's dreaming."  

Humor Under Attack?: Apparently, humor has been outlawed by the "Woke Folk" of the USA, because people truly are becoming insane.  Really nasty folks are "armouring themselves with false virtue", and going on the most curious assault-hunts, against - get this - those who write satire.  This is, in itself, pretty goddamned funny.   That black woman who Biden put on the Supreme Court of the USA, could not even define what a "woman" was, when asked.  She said:  "I am not a biologist..."   WTF?   So the "Babylon Bee" made fun of this whole "Woke Folk cannot decide what a woman is."  This got them "fact checked" by some Woke Folk weirdo site.  And it also got a retired General suspended from his job, when he made a Twitter comment (as a private citizen) to some kill-your-baby feminist diatribe that Jill Biden published on Twitter.   The Conservatives are reporting that rationality itself is under assault.

Here is how weird it is getting...

https://www.theepochtimes.com/rationality-itself-is-under-attack-ceo-of-the-babylon-bee_4579189.html?utm_source=partner&utm_campaign=ZeroHedge

More Ugly Nasty Sh/te: - For years, we have quietly warned clients the internet is slowly turning toxic, risk-laden, noxious and nasty, and localization is critical.  Using any sort of "cloud" resource will put you at real risk.  And everyone with any sanity, will use filters, cookie-blockers, script-blockers, ad-blockers and limited-functionality software, more and more as time drives on. 

Lately, we discovered another piece of crap - we keep seeing hits to "canadian.permutive.com", when we access various websites.  This is another (newer) tracking tool, designed to follow your browsing activity.  The idea is that even if you block cookies and other user-action tracking tools, there are still ways that your actions can be closely monitored and tracked in realtime.  

Here is an information-lite story about these folks:

https://www.yahoo.com/now/consumers-opt-marketing-permutive-brings-132600008.html

We do a lot of our research "browsing" with javascript disabled (it simply cannot be trusted - the entire concept is just an unwise, high-risk idea), and we regularly clear cache, cookies, history, etc.  But that means little, because everything you do, can still be tracked by agencies like Permutive.

The advert-supported internet is turning everything online to slime and wicked high-risk sludge.  Too bad.   It was fun while it lasted, but we think Musk is very wise to end his plans to buy Twitter.  Twitter is a censored echo-chamber of hard-core Leftists and neo-National-Socialist "Woke Folk", most of whom cannot think for themselves (maybe because they are "bots"?).   Or even if they are not, they act like Lefty-bots.  Musk is wise to walk away (fast) from everything that is Twitter.  It cannot be fixed or reformed.  It just is what it is - a mostly a toxic trash talk site for self-promoters.  Ugh.  :(

[ July 6, 2022 ] - Memo to the Pilot:  Beware the Cumulo-Granite - When flying thru a storm, caution is advised.  Boris Johnson is being torpedoed by his own people, and Europe runs the risk of losing another good leader.   It almost appears that a co-ordinated teacup-storm is being system-generated and carefully deployed.  The Brits are too willing to top their best people.   It's sad.  Resigning is a bit silly.   Reminds me of dogs fighting - all this noisy, nasty politics over not very much at all.   Same nonsense they do in Japan.  

Scandals are mostly bullshit, and no one really cares at all - it's mostly theatre.    We need to recognize where the threat is coming from - and it is coming from the Left, and the wagon-load of lies and nonsense it uses for it's political trade-goods. 

Here is an interesting and well-written piece on the idea of the "Great Reset" (not the "Great Replacement"...  )   Note that anything labelled "Great" usually is not so great.  Like the "Smart Car" was really kind of a stupid product, and a "Smart Phone" has become a device that is being used to make everyone become rather stupid.  And how a diet of "Happy Meals" makes you feel sad, when you look in the mirror, and see the huge bloated blob of lard that your body has become.  Language can be manipulation and obfuscation - instead of education and elucidation.   :D

https://americanmind.org/salvo/the-great-regression/

We don't mind a bit of a global approach to things.   We just want a world where the bad folks don't always win the day, steal the wealth, and control the State.   And it honestly appears to us, that the Americans crafted the best political model and constitutional government structure, to get close to something that works right.

Try to fly right, America.  And Good luck, England.    Best Wishes to all.   And watch out for those economic storm clouds of cumulo-granite.  The ride is getting bumpy.

[ July 5, 2022 ] - Let's Awake The Truth - This feels a lot like 1931.  We are making a "transition" for sure.  We are making a transition from a Good World to a Bad World.   It's really that simple.  Bear Markets are not big *crash* events like October 1929 or March of 2020.  They are slow killers, like bleeding to death.  You fall on average an eighth or a quarter or a half, each day, day in, day out, week in, and week out.  The selling is forced selling, as de-leveraging happens.   This feels like what is happening.    It's nasty.

Fortunately, we have non-leveraged real-estate holdings.  We had planned to develop one of them, but have (again) pulled the plug on the project work we had tee-ed up for this summer.   Such is life.   (Could be worse.  Could be raining.   Could be raining Russian missiles... )

Let's cut to the harsh truth, shall we?

A Completely nutjob-goofball set of scenarios are playing out - and we watch as all our "leaders" continue being stupid and making bad decisions.  It's tragic-comic.   Except for our local Provincial Premier, who has done a very good thing, by cutting the gasoline tax, and by refunding the license-fees for car license-plates.  This has made a positive difference for us.   But the arrogant buffoons in Ottawa are consistantly hostile to our interests, and we find that a curious thing.

The Cdn-dollar is down over a full cent, and there is real risk that a co-ordinated and brutal economic downturn is now being programmed in, by the idiocy of the "Leaders of the World". They have no clue what they are doing.  And this truth is becoming evident.

One solution, of course, is to convert to a War Economy, and pepper Russian forces in Ukraine with all the bombs and weapons we have, blast the bejeezus out of all the Russian ports, and have a meeting at the UN, where the Russian folks are told to remove their forces from Ukraine, or we start bombing all Russian cities.   This dribble-war, where we sit with our arses on our hands, and let Murder-Terrorists destroy whole cities, and maim and kill tens of thousand of innocent people,  is just fucking insane.   It is wrong.   It's like dead-jews-in-gas-ovens kind of wrong.  Bill Ackman is right.  World War Three has started, but the bozo-brigade poltroons, do not yet realize it. 

Russia wants a war with NATO, and we should bloody well give them one.  Issue war bonds, and raise up a few $trillion New Dollars, and convert our Western World economies to War Production, and roll across the Russian landscape like we should have done, long years ago, when Gangster-boy Stalin blockaded Berlin.   (General Patton was wise and correct about the need to fix the Russian problem, right at the end of WWII.)

Instead, we will have this idiotic war of attrition, where everyone gets poor and angry and we fight with each other instead, which is just so stupid.   We can take all the kids who like to play with AR-15's and shoot from rooftops, and put them in goddamn uniform, and point them toward fucking Moscow, and say: "Get to work."

What the fuck good is NATO if it is just a bunch of fuckwits arguing with goddamn Turks!  Fucking Turkeys!  We are arguing with Turkeys, while cities are burning and Russian missiles are being launched against Europeans - it is simply madness.   

If you have a goddamn problem, you fund-up, buy what you need, get your logistics and supply lines gen'ed up, and then you get the fuck busy.  We used to *really* know how to do this.

We simply cannot understand the idiotic and pointless and profoundly stupid behaviour of the global fuckwit brigade of second-rate, ass-covering dumbshit political poltroons that we seem to be burdened with in our current Western World.   They are "Safety Nazis" in a very dangerous and ugly world, and they are not wanted on this voyage.   They must be made to leave the building, before their talk-shop chatter costs us our freedom and our lives.

We need to create and implement an entire Allied Western World "Force de Frappe" (to use the wise French term), and then get the fuck to work on this goddamn problem, and stop fucking around with shit-stained, arse-licking politics.   (Pardon my fucking French...)

Fucking hell, if we are all destined to die poor and starving, then we should at least find that this new reality enables us to mobilize effectively, and get our people together, and take some solid, direct *action* against the forces of cruelty, madness, and stupidity, that seem determined to degrade and impoverish our Free World.

For fuck sakes, if Germany needs to have gas from Russia, then they can just use the "Putin Doctrine", and GO FUCKING TAKE IT!   Fund-up your military, and tell NATO "Hold my beer...", and go fucking TAKE Belarus and any part of Russia proper that you feel you need to ensure energy security.   This is what Putin is doing in Ukraine, so he cannot complain.  Ask Poland to help you.  Hell, ask everyone to help you.   They probably will.   This time, we do it fucking right, and solve the goddamn problem.

War was supposed to have been made *illegal* back in 1928, and disputes were supposed to be dealt with at the famous Swiss-based "League of Nations".  Most nations of the world, signed on to the "Kellogg-Briand Pact".   It was a noble idea, and it was agreed-to by all major nations, and signed on August 27, 1928, in Paris France.  It was supposed to make war between nations, illegal.  But it had no effective enforcement ability.    And we can see that that it did not work too well at all, did it?   It was just another in a long line of talk-shop frauds.  The "United Nations" in New York continues this tradition, with that big talk-shop now used as a cover for Russian "Special Military Actions"  (SMAs) that destroy cities full of folks who thought they were new European citizens.   This is political fraud, an obscene abuse of the highest order.

Well, we better get the fuck used to this new current reality, and begin to GET BUSY.   Plowshares into swords, and yellowcake into Davy-Crocket rockets.   We should begin to work on this now, and not wait until Russian missiles are incoming on our homelands.

[ July 4, 2022 ] - Help Me Find My Car Keys, and We Can Drive Out - Do most folks realize just how silly it is getting?  We are seeing a cascade of curious choices, by folks who run things.  The results are becoming not too difficult to predict.  The inflation is already here, and hammering along at warp speed, and a cascade collapse is becoming possible.   The French are dealing with this by proposing a new *law*, that will increase the salaries of civil servants, raise welfare payments, and boost pension payouts.  Passing **new spending** laws, that further damage Government finances - Wow! - That really ought to help limit inflation, eh?  (If one put all the current foolishness into a novel, people would dismiss it as being just too absurd and far-fetched, to read.)

https://www.reuters.com/business/how-macrons-inflation-relief-law-tests-frances-new-political-order-2022-07-04/

We actually don't think North American real-estate prices will collapse this time.  We just expect interest rates to rise to the 7% to 10% level, and prices to continue to climb.  We expect the banks to do well, as they will be able to harvest serious inflationary gains, as long as credit-conditions are not blown up - and we suspect they won't be, since it will be less bad for the "Governments" of the World to keep the free-money flowing, rather than have a collapse in employment, rising social conflict, mass bankruptcies, and large tax increases to support wildly expanded government debt service costs.  

We are all hooked now on the heroin of fiat money.   And it is just too difficult to convert your gold holdings into cash.  (Unless someone makes a smooth-working gold-coin crypto currency maybe...) 

Others seem to agree.   The future looks crazy.   And the "crazy" seems to be accelerating.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/germany-risks-a-cascade-of-utility-failures-economy-chief-says-1.1786885

And it is not just Europe who will find it gets weird.  USA is running debt-to-GDP ratios, at the same level it did (125%), back in the midst of World War Two.  

https://goldswitzerland.com/this-implosion-will-be-fast-hold-onto-your-seats/

We are a tad skeptical about gold.  But the above note is interesting, since we also see the possiblility of a very fast change taking place, as all the parameters seems to be lining up for a "phase-jump" to a new, chaotic orbital location of economic variables, which better reflect the significant new levels of scarcity of goods that folks want and need (like food, fuel and ammo).  These transitions are typically not smooth.  They are non-linear.  

Like a sign I saw on the back of big Jeep 4x4 the other day:  "Get In.  Sit Down.  Shut Up.  Hold On."   For fun, I checked on the price of *used* Tesla cars.  There were a few listed on a popular buy-sell site.  The least expensive was $98,000 for a 2018 model.  Really.   If you are rich, you will be ok.  If you are not, you might not be.  But that's not a new phenomenon.   What is going to be surprising here, is the speed of the transition, we suspect.

Enjoy the ride.

[ July 2, 2022 ] - President Joe & The Saviour Machine -
Funny, but in truth, I got all the data on the future, long long ago.   The AI technology will kill us all, Mr. Bowie indicated, just as Mr. Musk has warned, and President Joe is busy engineering...?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U-AMec7yr7c

Ok, maybe not.  Maybe the "Saviour Machine" is supposed to be NATO?  Or that big AI that IBM has?  ("Deep Blue Goo?)  Maybe not that either. 

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2327107-deepminds-ai-develops-popular-policy-for-distributing-public-money/?utm_campaign=RSS%7CNSNS&utm_source=NSNS&utm_medium=RSS&utm_content=news

Brunner's "Stand on Zanzibar" keeps bubbling in my subthoughts.  We are in a very strange global horror-show now, where Putin is playing the part of Hitler, and Scholz of Germany, the part of Chamberlain.   The USA is trying to run a limited war, by "phoning it in", and sending some weapons, but not offering any direct help.  Canada has sent some bullets and shells and (I understand), 3 (yes, *three* - not three divisions, not 3 hundred, just 3) M777 cannons.   (Maybe would could do a bit more?  Eh?)  

"Fucking hell!" says my deeply cynical "Inner Trader".  "America spent *billions* blasting the shit out of Vietnamese jungles and North Vietnamese cities, billions on the unnecessary war in Iraq, and tens of billions in Afghanistan, but they cannot even spare one fucking aircraft carrier to park in the fucking Black Sea, to deter the mass murder of cities full of European White People?"  

And, oh - there he goes again, what a bad fellow!  But my cynical "Inner Trader" has let slip a truth, yet again.  The Russian Terror War by Russia, offends us on a deep and basic level,  because it is a bunch of people like us - standard average White folks - caucasians - who are being slaughtered by low-IQ Slavic monsters whose decendents hail from the East - Asiatics with their epicanthic folds, breathing through their Gengis-Khan mouths, looking like V. I. Lenin's half-wit children, and who himself was half-Mongol.   Lenin returned that "Mongol Yoke" to Russia, in the guise of "Marxist Communism", and it enslaved them for almost 70 years.   Poor Russia.   And now, it sends it's goons to kill the peaceful folks of Ukraine, who want to be part of Europe, and not be enslaved by Slavic Asia.  Could this become any more awful?   Perhaps.

Russian history is a perfect horror-show of tragic irony.  We screened some "Why We Fight" USA propaganda films from 1942 and 1943 last nite, along with a bunch of Dziga Vertov's "Kino Pravda" flicks.  Vertov was an absolute cinematic genius, and his "Kino Pravda" films are easy to watch and remain fascinating.  Revolutionary Russia was an interesting thing - a real entity, until it was destroyed by Stalin (an abusive, failed priest, for god's sakes...).   The history of this planet is such an astonishing foul-up, that it defies belief sometimes.  Stalin was a bank-robber and a true terrorist, much like Putin has morphed into.  Astonishing and so curiously tragic.

The most important task for every living person, is to support freedom and justice, by making the terrorists feel the same terror that they have inflicted on the innocent - just before the terrorist's lives are extinguished by the forces of justice and freedom.  Putin's Terror War in Ukraine is the most perfect evil that I have ever seen play out in my lifetime.  It will seriously poison Russia for many years into the future.  The scale of the tragedy, is matched only by its unnecessary cruelty.  It is political insanity of the highest level possible.   And it changes everything.

Somehow, we need to get new leaders into positions of power in the "Free World", and we need to get this done quickly.   We need young, strong and very, very angry leaders, who can take action, mobilize the people, and end this murderous evil, before it expands and grows greater still.  Because it most certainly will, if we do not act.   The costs will be high, but history has shown us - again and again - that this is a cost that must be paid.  Freedom must be earned, by each generation.  And the cost of keeping that freedom must sometimes be renewed, even if that cost is blood, pain and death.

[ July 1, 2022 ] - Welcome to the Shitshow - The large and tragic costs of having complete idiots in charge of things, is now becoming apparent.  Our multilateral, open world of honesty and freedom, is giving way to an ugly, polarized, angry world dominated by the extraordinarily stupid, the dishonest, the cruel and the profoundly incompetent.   It's quite a surprising transition.  We have this tragic-comic sight of Russian thugs, actively using their Soviet-era weapons to bomb Ukrainian apartment buildings and shopping centres full of non-combatant civilians - and then reporting on Russian TV saying that the targets were military instalations.   The scale and extent of official Russian Government dishonesty is making the entire Russian people look like absurd lunatics.  This in and of itself is an astonishing crime against human reality, sanity and basic dignity.  Putin is actively destroying Russia and degrading the Russian people, their culture and their history.  It is a sad and curiously awful criminal act.

We are watching the unfolding of a "New Age of Unreason."    It's extreme and bizzare.   In the USA, and here, we are seeing a curious political focus on twisted weirdness, and a strange and insane attempt to create a mentally unbalanced world where people are encouraged to re-define there sexual indentity as other than male or female.   This makes no sense.  But it serves a political objective, which encourages and mandates a new form of social control.  People are required to *embrace* mental sickness under the rubric of "diversity".   But it is the diversity of insanity - the classical denial of evident reality that characterizes the behaviour of the psychotic.

Why the insanity?  Because it empowers the corrupt and manipulative social fraudsters that have gained control of the public debate and political process.  If you can force people to believe lies and nonsense by peer-group pressure, you can more easily control and dominate them.  Serious experiments in the field of psychology have demonstrated this process and technique.

Sadly, much of the improvement and gain that the last 40 years has generated, is being swept away by curiously awful events, driven by absurd, extreme and ridiculous levels of greed and indifference - and by the abusive and clever strategies of the deeply dishonest and profoundly dangerous political operatives that now control and dominate this world.

The Shitshow is on.

What to do?  Get angry.  Keep a smile on your face.  Follow the idiotic rules, and maintain a low profile.  But get angry inside, and know that the Good World is under direct attack.   It is being actively targeted by the very dark forces of fraud & deception.   Plan quietly, and realize that you are being actively lied to, manipulated, and defrauded.  Work quietly for the change that must come.   Preserve your capital, and make sure when you vote - you vote for correction and for repair and for course-change.   But just voting, will not be enough.

You must realize, as one can now see - voting itself is under assault.  The ability for people to affect any sort of change is being degraded and prevented now by the corruption in the political process itself.    So each of us, must begin to create and develop alternate methods - not just to try to repair the awful damage being done - but to ensure our very survival.

Strange times.  Never expected to see things become so weirdly grusome.  

It's even worse in the the world of economics.  We are seeing a deliberate attempt to degrade and destroy our market processes, so as to protect the foolish and dishonest behaviour of our corrupt political people.  "Climate Change" surcharges on our fuel prices - which are already high and growing fast.  First, we had the initial denial the inflation was even happening, then absurd and completely senseless assertions that inflation was transitory and temporary (?!?), and now, rapid and knee-jerk **PRICE INCREASES** to supposedly **FIGHT** (???) inflation.

Of course, this has smashed the markets down 20% in three months, and provoked the greatest and fastest co-ordinated economic downturn, since the engineered inflation of the 1960's.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-62005360

This is just abusive and insane.   We have 40 years of out of control government overspending on idiotic and unsustainable social programs, free-money-for-non-working-deadbeats, tax policies that punish effort and entrepreneurship, policies the encourage and promote unsound money, and a high-cost, low-opportunity economic model, that encourages our best and brightest to leave the country, and relocate to the USA.   And the solution to the resulting inflation that this exercise in very bad Government created?  Higher taxes and higher interest rates, of course - but not until this action can hammer the markets, and enhance small-holder impoverishment.  

It's pretty comical, since the co-ordinated degree of foolishness, seems to be planned and designed to do maximum damage, as quickly as possible.  Probably this is not really the case - but it seems to play this way.

We are probably looking at an economic downturn, on par with the 1930's.   This seems to be what is in the forecast, and this is astonishing.   Our models are pointing straight down.  Down and down more, in ways we have never seen before...  It is scary, but our cynical "Inner Trader" suggests quietly: "This is not an accident.  This is not a "Black Swan" of randomness.  This is by design.   A broken, bankrupt people are in crisis, and Governments like we have now, they *want* to have a crisis, since it gives them political cover, and gives them real power to take further, greater control.  Our gangsters in Ottawa are not really that different from the gangsters that control every nation now - even the Russian gangsters."

It's a terrible thought.   And we fear it might be true.

Think our comments are too extreme?   You are probably wrong.  There are easy solutions to the current problems, but political actors are *actively* preventing solutions from being implemented.  This very much appears to be by plan.

https://freebeacon.com/columns/whos-in-charge/

The Really Big Shitshow looks like it has begun.

[ June 30, 2022 ] - LinkedIn Does Not Work For Us - We Get The Moving Blue-bar of Death - Thank-you Microsoft.  Everything Microsoft touches, turns into black, stinking sticky nastystuff.  Just hilarious.

We use Linux and Firefox browser, a not-too-bad "ESR" version (extended support release), as we place stability-of-operation highest of all virtues.   Some years back, Microsoft bought LinkedIn, and turned it into a crappy, bag of "Does not work on Linux+Firefox", so as to drive folks to have to use their ugly and abusive Windows ecosystem.   

Just confirmed this again to day - when I try to login and display any information - I get successfully logged-in, but then get shown a white blank screen, with only a LinkedIn logo, and a blue bar moving back and forth.  Nothing else happens.  I disabled the AdBlocker, and tried a bunch of other stuff - but LinkedIn is butchered, so that it will not run with our quality, secure, generic Linux software.  I figured; "Oh well, Microsoft bought it, and they fucking ruined it, like they did with Skype, as a simple matter of business policy.  Typical abusive monopolistic behaviour.  Fucking jerks." 

And I thought that was the end of it.  I'll just delete my account, and throw in the towel with those fuckwits.   But then, a little reseach, and it got even more interesting.  Turns out, the Microsoft boys were doing some oh-so-clever tricky-dicky stuff - like copying the contents of your personal system clipboard, to the LinkedIn app, ON EVERY SINGLE KEYSTROKE that a user made while using LinkedIn!  Oh my.

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23716451

We've said it once, and we will say it again.  Most internet shared-usage "Applications", like most software offered on the internet (and probably *all* applications from the major tech-providers), are often toxic shit-shows of data-rape.   They exist to harvest your information, and use it to take advantage of you.   Microsoft owning LinkedIn, and doing this, is not quite the same thing as putting camera's in the Woman's Shower-Rooms and inside the toilets - but it certainly is in the same spirit.

Beware the "Cloud".  Beware the Internet.   It is - honestly, we say this in truth - it is just not your friend.  Hold that thought.  

(Recall that scene in "The Life of Brian":  "Rwome is yur Fwiend!"   )   So is Microsoft, apparently.

[ June 29, 2022 ] - Hoisted By His Own Petard? - Or maybe not.   We don't wish ill-health on Dr. F., but it still is amusing to see the high government officials become Covid-19 lab-rats.  Maybe he will get Monkeypox also?

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/fauci-suffers-covid-symptom-rebound-after-course-of-pfizer-s-paxlovid-1.1785523

We are not doctors, but if we were, we would suggest Dr. F. try a course of hydroxychloroquine.  And we are completely serious here.  That drug has unique abilities to reduce inflamation and pain associated with arthritis, as well as offering value in the treatment of various malaria symptoms. 

It has also been shown - in numerous empirical studies on real patients suffering from Covid-19 symptoms - to substantially relieve the symptoms, and reduce the mortality rate from Covid-19.  For various curious reasons, it's use became politicized by various reactionary leftists and other American disinformationalists.   It is a safe and useful drug, which addresses out-of-control inflamation, which can occur in a number of disease scenarios.  

https://www.hopkinsarthritis.org/patient-corner/drug-information/hydroxychloroquine-plaquenil/

Seriously, Anthony Fauci should try this drug, and report the degree to which it relieves his rebound Covid-19 symptoms.   We - and many others - are honestly curious.   A sample-size of one is not statistically useful, but if he took this drug, and obtained immediate and tangible benefit, then some of the stupid politics that surrounds it's usage, could be ended, and thus Dr. Fauci might actually be able to do something helpful and useful.   And that would be good for himself, for the USA, and for the rest of the world. 

[ June 28, 2022 ] - From Russia with Love - Not.   Putin must be located and ended.  Russia must be declared a "State Sponsor of Terrorism", and all trade must be suspended until Putin and his Terrorists are neutralized.  No other rational choice really exists. 

Ukraine should be offered NATO membership, due to the extreme emergency it's people are facing, and all global resources should be used to remove the terrorist threat that is engulfing that nation.   No other option really exists, short of removing Russia from the planet using extreme methods.   Russia bombs hospitals and shopping malls.  The world cannot live with a murderous, nuclear-armed Terrorist nation of brutal mass-murderers of European civilians.

Russia has become the Great Evil.   The free world must act.  If it does not, then we must replace our leaders, with men and women of courage, wisdom and strength, who can begin the process of doing what we all now know, must be done.

[ June 27, 2022 ] - We Are On to Something - More research.  I am growing quite tired - but we are on to something.  I managed to find Hjalmar Schacht's "The Magic of Money" book, which was published in 1967, three years before this wise gentleman died.  Schacht was the Reichbank's President, who took over after Haverstein had the good sense retire, and then decency to die.  Schacht took over in 1924, and ended the insane money-printing that characterized - and drove - the German hyperinflation.  It is difficult to get accurate financial information on the 1918 to 1923 period in German economic history - the economic numbers simply became silly and absurd, and seem not to reflect reality, so they tell us little, most think.  Of course, this is not the case.  The German economic numbers from 1918 to 1923, scream at us like people trapped in a burning building.  It is just painful and difficult to listen to them, and understand and accept what they are telling us.

People are most often lazy, stubborn and stupid.  It takes serious effort to become enlightened, and then it takes courage and stamina to act on the knowledge gained.  It also takes private freedom and a large bucket of luck.   And there will be "crabs in the bucket" which will further complicate and impair necessary action.

The more I study the German hyperinflation experience, the more ominous it appears.   We think we are so much smarter now.   But to that sense of smug satisfaction, I say: "Bullshit".   Our Central Bankers are - right now - quite possibly also being driven-along like horses on a highway, by the "Wrong Model" problem, towards a place where the economic bridge is out - rather like happened to Haverstein's Reichsbank.  We won't be printing banknotes - we already did that electronically - but events might be engineering a wild and extreme transition, which we will not be in control of.

We begin to suspect that we are at risk of an accelerating change in economic conditions, the likes of which most of us have never seen or experienced in our lifetimes.

I feel like we on one of those old world maps, with edge-regions labeled "Here, There Be Dragons", and we are there - just about to sail off the edge.   We are actually - and deliberately - engineering a financial scenario where a major world-trading partner, Russia, is being forced into a technical bond-default, by our own leader's design to "punish" them.    This is insane.  Those hurt, will be our own investors - not the Russians.   We should be encouraging them to pay up, not telling them they cannot.

We use economics, when we should be using direct force, and we use direct force, when we should be using economics.  Why does the USA try to prevent the Chinese "Belt and Road" idea and plans?  Trade is good.   War is bad.   Let's do Trade instead of War.   But if war is needed, then let's do it right, fast, and with intensity and focus.

The interest-rate rises planned by Central Banks, may have very unusual, extreme and quite unplanned consequences.    People - even senior, high-ranking folks (especially), can become quite delusional - and this propensity for self-delusion seems to be growing at an exponential rate.  It is defining the times.

[ June 26, 2022 ] - In A Godda Da Vida - People like to live in "La La Land."   You see it in our mythology and our history.  Humans seek and embrace delusion and outright madness.   It happens again and again and again.  Governments are the worst offenders, since the gangsters that often get control of states can profit enormously, if they can get the people to believe crazy, stupid, insane frauds.   This happens quite often, throughout history.  It is awful, tragic, scary, and interesting.  

We are now seeing a curious world, were idiots, fools and outright delusional madmen (V. Putin?) seem to be in charge, almost everywhere.   History teaches us that this is not an uncommon problem.   If someone wants to understand "inflation", one does well to study the German inflation from 1914 to 1923.  In 1924, a clever fellow named Hjalmar Schacht took over at the German Central Bank.  He invented the "RentenMark", stopped the insane and out-of-control issuance of higher and higher value German bank notes, and stabilized the German currency.   He had to make his office in a cloak-room, as the Riechsbank people would not even allocate him an office.  ( A similar thing happened to a fine and clever Government boss at a Treasury department that ran a money-management group I did some work for many years ago.  Organizations do not like to change, and they have many effective ways to resist attempts to induce required changes.)

But one must study the 1914 to 1923 period of the out-of-control German inflation.  That "hyperinflation" resulted from the Reichsbank have some real idiots in charge, and stubbornly clinging to a wildly wrong economic model.

Here is a short summary, well written, by a German Phd professor, who taught in America, and died in 2007.   It is short and clear.   When Central Bankers have wrong models, things can get very bad, very quickly.  Germany in 1920 to 1923 provides a very good example of this.  The German hyperinflation was *not* a result of Germany having to pay absurdly-high First World War reparations.  It was a wild creature, directly of their own making - but Haverstein absolutely denied the truth of this.  It is a fascinating disaster, that provides a textbook example of how really bad big Government, and big Government organizations can be:

https://mises.org/library/hyperinflation-germany-1914-1923

We believe - and in fact, in honesty - we are *certain* - that a similar problem exists today.  We are certain that small increases in central-bank administered interest rates, in the contexts of our highly leveraged modern economies, where almost everyone - businesses and consumers - carry debt, and have debt-service costs - we are certain that these inceases will be inflationary. 

They will **CONTRIBUTE** to rising levels of price inflation, because in the short and medium term, everyone's costs will be increased.  Businesses will raise prices in response, and consumers and households will demand higher wages and salaries, to deal with their rising mortgage and demand-loan and VISA-card debt-service costs.

It is only when interest rates reach levels which induce substantial and significant change in business and consumer behaviour - you close the business, and/or you sell the house or investment at a big loss - that is it possible for higher interest rates to reduce price levels.  But this process requires a deeply damaging recession - or even it's more evil twin, the "Depression".

There had developed some solid understanding of this problem, back in the 1974 to 1980 time frame.   But that understanding and awareness seems to have been lost.  It is certainly lost on the current crop of Central Bankers in the USA.

We think the USA Federal Reserve should pause - and seek to dial down monetary stimulus by reducing it's massive portfolio of bonds it bought.  Just let them redeem (pay off), and that will quite effectively reduce the amount of money in circulation.  If P really does equal M times V (which we believe it rather actually does), then one probably does not even need to raise the administered rates much at all.  And if overall indebtedness is so high that everyone's costs are sure to rise a lot if rates are raised, then rate-rises might produce dangerously disruptive responses where price increases feed on price increases, which would requre higher interest rate increases, and thus could lead to a very deep economic downturn in USA.  And that will be very bad, for a number of rather obvious reasons.  (This is what has already happened in Turkey, in Argentina and in Zimbabwe, all textbook examples of:  "What Not To Do When Manageing a State Economy."   Must we emulate these folks?

When setting policy, it is wise to ensure that your actions do not make a bad problem become worse.  Sadly, this is often what we see now.   Our political people and our regulators seem to have made Wisdom leave the building.   Along with Elvis, I guess...

But don't worry.  We will all die soon, and in the graveyard, economics does not matter very much.  :D

[ June 24, 2022 ] - Dollars from Hell - Instead of "Pennies from Heaven"...?   We are possibly looking at a global reset-process taking place.  If this is really the case, then we are only at the beginning stages.   This is another worst-case scenario.  If it plays out, a lot of that central-bank created money supply, which has fueled the world economy for the last two years, might simply be made to go "Pffhht!".  Markets are up and hopping today.  But financials are lagging badly.   This is a dangerous signal, we fear.

Been on this all morning.  Thought it might be international stuff (perhaps a major purchase of a Bank down south?  (The whole deal is going south even further?  But no,  that does not look like it.).

It's reported to be the Canadian housing market.  Prices for houses in Canada, are up roughly 3 times, from average prices in 2000.  Contrast that with USA, where prices are up roughly 60%, over the same 22 year time frame.   Canada is expensive.  And suddenly, within the last two weeks, the air is said to be "leaking" out of our house-price balloon.  Rough numbers, from several articles across a bunch of sources - Vancouver and Toronto looking at 10 to 15% reductions in house prices - right about now - according to news media articles.  (I could not confirm this.) 

Lawyers supposedly  have small stacks of "Cannot Close this Deal" problems on their desks.  (Example: You do a deal at $900,000 for a house, appraisal comes in lower than expected, and even with your $50,000 or $100,000 down payment, you cannot get bank financing, because suddenly, the bank appraisal comes in at $740,000. Yikes.  But is this really happening in a big way?  Unclear.)

So, the story is that Ontario communities are seeing house prices off 8% to 11% in just the last two to three weeks, entirely due to Bank of Canada administered bank-rate interest-rate rises.  Perhaps more in Vancouver, where "students" were often buying mansions, according to mainstream-media, advert-supported "journalism" data items.  News media is not trustworthy, but prices are prices.  No price reductions are evident in and near small city where we live, since supply is seriously unable to meet demand.   Average price for house in Vancouver is $1.2 million, roughly.  And that is high.  But Vancouver is special case, based on the goofy geography of the place, with steep mountains limiting places where houses can be constructed.  It's nickname is "Hongcouver".

Two or three years ago, one could get a 5 year fixed term on a 25-year mortgage, for 2 percent or less.  Some were available for 1.75%.  Now, a five-year fixed rate term on same 25-year mortgage might sport a 5% rate, given the new interest rate environment.   One of our Banks raised it's internal "prime rate" from 3.20% to 3.70% a couple of days ago. (Business and demand-loans for consumers are typically priced as "prime plus", typically something like 2 or 3 or 4% added to that "bank prime" number.  So, shifting bank-prime, jacks up the interest costs of everyone's loans.

And so raising rates should make the bank more money - but it also has the ability to whack down the bank capital, as the bank's assets are the loans it has outstanding.  Our bank in question, had increased it's business-lending, by 19%, from last year, according to a May 2022 report.  That meant more money coming in - but with collateral being re-priced downwards, it means risk for the (very well capitalized bank) is still rising, not falling.    If a significant downturn takes place in house prices, this is expected to have a non-trivial impact on bank stock valuations, as existing mortgages become more risk-laden.   But will this happen?  Unclear.

We *really* think the market is over-reacting, and that even if house-prices come off 20%, it will not impair the banks any more than they have already have been hit (Share prices are typically down roughly 20% from highs two or three months ago).  

But the market *always* over-reacts.  And sometimes, it knows why, and has valid reasons.  But house prices were getting silly - and interest rate rises will help bank profits on new loans, as the spreads will improve in bank's favour.

And again, we have been handed the time-honoured lesson:  Do not try to "average down" on an investment or speculation, unless you know that you know something that the other market players are unlikely to know.  And that, in itself, is rather unlikely to be the case.

It remains to be seen how serious the market downturn will be in house prices.  Since the Federal Canadian government is importing between 400,000 and 500,000 immigrants per year (almost double the long term average of around 250,000 per year), then we don't expect prices to fall very much.  There is just too damn much real, honest demand for a nice place to live.

We suspect that rising rates will accompany rising inflation.  Why?  Because that is *EXACTLY* what happened in the 1975 to 1980 inflation, and it took 20% to 25% (and more) interest-rates to break the late-Seventies inflation we had here in Canada.  Raising rates breaks inflation, by breaking businesses and people. 

In Chile, the Central Bank rate is 9% (it was just raised).  In Argentina, the Central Bank rate is 52% (it was also just raised).  Inflation in Argentina is running over 5% per month and is showing no signs of slowing down.  Argentina bonds - the new US-dollar ones - are trading at around 25 cents on the dollar.  It's a replay of the 2000 collapse, it looks like.  They cannot learn, it seems.

The floors of the World, are getting very slippery.  In some places it is blood, and in others, it is radioactive waste, mixed with spilled oil and the sweat of over-leveraged investors who are losing money.

Our AI model is pointing down, sharply.  Against our (and it's) better judgement, we remain long. This might turn out to be an unwise approach.  But we fear holding cash in this idiotic time, and believe that our equity positions in solid, well regulated financials which are characterized by very large capital buffers, offer better protection than cash-holdings. 

Time will tell.  And maybe quite soon,   Here in Canada, we have learning problems also.

[ June 23, 2022 ] - Here Comes Barfy - Forced selling seems to be taking place.  Stops have been hit, and hit again, and then one more time.   Buyers are looking scarce.   Investors are looking scared.   Not good.   What is just hilarious, is that Tuesday, driving from Parry Sound back to the cottage property, we saw a real, live Black Bear cross the highway in front of the pickup truck.   I have not seen an actual live bear in the wild, for many, many years.  And this big boy walked quickly across the road, on all fours, looking like a really huge black dog, except his legs were as big and round as sewer-pipes, and were covered with thick black hair.  He was a good speciman, and looked healthy and well fed.

Perhaps, he had grown fat and fine from eating investor's portfolios...?

I am not supersititious, but perhaps I should have been.   We are getting shredded today.  And the thought occurs - what if the big Banks in Canada, get repriced so they yield dividend rates that match the inflation rate?  Easy-peasy, right?  Just take 20 or 30 dollars or more off of each bank-stock share price, and then the financial process will start to work again - sort of.  As it is now, if inflation is 8%, and dividend yields are 5%, and there is no significant growth on the horizon, then something has to bloody well adjust - and maybe it will be the share price.  Without a financial process that at least matches inflation rate, you are stupid to hold the paper.  Much better to hold physical assets, right?  Duh.

And this worst-case scenario is playing out now, before our tired eyes.   Fack.

[ June 22, 2022 ] - "Houston, we have a problem..." - Our positions are not looking healthy.  The markets are deciding that Canada is perhaps a bad trade.  This is unfortunate.   The Asians say: "When you reach the top of the mountain, all paths lead down."   The problems are becoming more serious, the market is saying.  It may be right, and we may be wrong.  One must always keep this simple truth in mind.  "Memento mori.." whispered the slave, into Caesar's ear, as he rode in triumph through the streets of Rome.

[ June 18, 2022 ] - The Year of Living Dangerously With Inflation - Curious asset re-pricing action underway.   We are seeing a rush for the exits - and into what?  We are concerned that markets are jumping to a different regime where asset valuations are unclear, and margin calls are being made across a large range of  investment structures.

We seem to be tracking another of our worst-case scenarios, where a global, co-ordinated reduction in debt-levels is being triggered by a fairly minor revision in US short-term administered rates.   Except data suggests that the change in US interest rate levels is not really that minor.   The move from 1 percent to 1.75% is actually almost a doubling in the cost of money.  If inflation really were a risk, then being a debtor is a good strategy, as you can repay with devalued currency in the future.

But what is happening here is an attempt to blow-up inflation, by raising the "cost of money" by 75%.  The bank's equity valuations are getting hit, because the fear is that the underlying collateral value that backstops the bank's loan portfolio, is thus going to be re-priced downward.   Banks make money by giving people mortgage loans  to acquire assets.  The mortgage-holder's asset is the bank's collateral.  If we see asset values de-flated, the reduction in collateral values puts the loans at risk.  So the bank equity is re-priced downwards to reflect this risk

The problem is that the air does not tend to get removed from this kind of balloon in a smooth and gentle manner.   If asset-revaluation occurs too quickly, then the risk is that all sorts of investment structures that were fine and nice and working well, suddenly jump - when the cost of the borrowed money jumps significantly - from being nicely profitable, to becoming ugly, money-burning disasters.

This is an old problem in the world of economics - rather like the "Farm Problem" (when harvests are really good, lots and lots of food is available, and the prices paid to farmers falls, often a lot.  Farmers tend to do best, when crops are poor, harvests are small, and prices are high to reflect the scarcity of the lean harvest.   A good harvest tends to punish farmers for their success, by offering them lower prices for their successful efforts.)

In the business of loaning money, low rates of interest tend to reflect difficult economic environments, and the low cost of borrowed funds encourages investments which have small rates of return.  But if lots of easy, low-cost money is made available, asset prices and investment valuations can get puffed-up ("inflated!") to levels which are not sustainable if the costs of the borrowed money suddenly rise.   This is why companies and governments issue bonds, so that costs of borrowed funds can be locked into predictable schedules for extended durations.

The problem here, is that a rapid shift in the "cost of money", can radically disrupt a range of investments which can suddenly become unprofitable, if funding costs are up-shifted.

And this is the crux of the "inflation" problem.  Raising interest rates raises **costs** to many business owners and mortgage holders.  In an ugly environment, where costs are rising, and both producers and consumers are getting squeezed, the blunt instrument of a significant rise in funding cost, is VERY MUCH AN INFLATIONARY ACTION.   

The only way that interest-rate rises can work, is to explicitly destroy the economic effectiveness of marginal, high-risk investment structures.   The near 20% interest rates of 1979-1981, worked to bring down inflation, by causing a brutal, business-destroying, unemployment-increasing recession that was ugly and awful.  I know, because I was there, and saw it first-hand.  Wage and Price control programs do not work at all, and simply cause pain and disruption to everyone in a working economy.   Plus, they do real damage.  Price controls just stop economic activity.  They are stupid beyond belief, and only low-IQ political people suggest such foolishness as a solution to the inflation problem.

But interest-rate increases - in short-term administered rates - must bring down inflation by causing economic investment valuation destruction.  This is why the changes to administered interest rates (Central Bank rates, which underpin most bank loans and mortgage pricings), need to be made gradually, and EARLY.  What the Federal Reserve in the USA has done, is almost a perfect textbook case of how to not to deal with inflation.

Inflation is almost never "transitory".   Why any economist would suggest that, is simply beyond me.   It indicates a deep lack of understanding of the inflationary economic process.  This is curious.   Why is everyone getting so weirdly stupid?   Rates needed to begin being raised - gently - last year, when the inflation hit the 4 to 5% level.    Rising rates are not a problem, in an environment of rising rates of return on capital - typically resulting from improved trade, enhanced supply-chain operation, increased ranges of economic opportunities, and improving technology. 

Where we are now, is silly and stupid and awful, and I am just gob-smacked by the madness of things.  We are at risk now, if the interest-rate changes are too rapid, of blowing up a well working Western + Eastern World economic model - across just about everywhere and everything.

The small cities near where I live, are just *booming*.  New houses are being built, people can afford them (mostly), the banks are making money, and the factories are cranking out everything we need.  The harvests are good, the farmers are well-off, and the money is cheap (the CDN dollar is in the 77-cent US range - so we are a cheap, low-cost, almost Third-World attractive production environment.  Our competitor is Mexico, and our customer - only a hundred miles away, is all of USA.)

If the government regulatory loons, and the silly Central Bankers could get some wisdom, and stop fucking around with the parameters in an unwise and uninformed manner, then we will all be just fine.   Rates needed to be raised last year, and we all told you this.   Now that we have this inflation, we need to be careful to assess what the causes are.  

Right now, most of the idiot inflation is because of Putin's stupid, unwise and cruel war in Ukraine.   And also because of the strange rules that prevent America from finding and refining and shipping and selling more oil.   Europe is trying to convert to an "electrical energy" economy, away from a "burning fuel" economy, but they are also shutting down their nuclear power plants, which is fucking stupid beyond belief.   Europe should be building a bunch of new nuclear power plants, and developing a range of safe, spent fuel underground storage sites. (China is building something like 20 or 30 new nuclear power plants.

What folks have forgotten is that inflation is not entirely a monetary phenomenon.  A doubling in the price of a basic, primary economic input, is going to cascade a series of price increases thru a working economy.  This is obvious. 

And raising borrowing costs - just as that is happening - will simply ADD TO THE INFLATIONARY PRESSURE.   This curious phenomenon was seen, and documented in the mid 1970's in North America.  Economic papers were written on this.  Some economists called it a "backward bending supply curve", and so on.   Raising interest rates, after the first "Arab Oil Shock", as it was called, simply ADDED to inflationary pressures, and wage demands.

Rates had to be raised to insane levels (roughly 20%) to break the inflation psychology that took hold, and this caused massive economic damage.  But it worked.

Must we track this path again?   Interest rate rises will do NOTHING to reduce gasoline prices.

A better approach might be to directly address the energy supply restrictions - find and produce and refine and ship more oil, at a lower price, develop liquified natural gas facilities, research and develop hydrogen fuel systems and make fuel stations available, build better, more efficient nuclear power plants, with off-site spent fuel storage (for enhanced safety of operation), and develop methods to get electric trucks and more electric cars on the road - and this means making it possible to find and mine and refine the materials needed for the batteries.   All this action will benefit from LOWER interest rates.

What we suspect, is that we cannot be the only ones who realize this.  We suspect interest rates will be moved back to a normal, sane level, and then left there.  We will not likely see Volker-style crazy rates, as that would kill us all, now.   We need to invest to make big transitions, and some inflation will be necessary.

But the inflation won't destroy the banks, and interest rates must not be upshifted too fast, so that real-estate crashes and/or  mortgages go underwater, or the housing market is blown up by the process.  That would be insane and unwise in the extreme.

If our current inflation spike is NOT due primarily to monetary policy, then it would be unwise for significant monetary policy change to be used to address the inflation.  We suspect the Central Bankers and their staff, know this.

So, we expect a few upmoves to make the interest-rate environment sane and stable, but not enough to seriously damage the economy.

And, long-story-short, we remain long our bank stocks.   We just don't see the need for an economy-smashing rate runup.   The inflation we are seeing, is almost entirely due to the extreme up-shift in gasoline prices.  It is dramatic, and costly, and ugly.  And it is due almost entirely to Putin's stupid and unwise war against Ukraine, and the sad necessity of sanctions to communicate to Russia, just how extremely awful and stupid this illegal State-terrorism actually is.  Putin is living in an isolated dream-world of delusion, and has no idea of the hell-storm he is unleashing on the World.    He is actively destroying Russia's future prosperity, while his troops bomb and kill and burn down Ukrainian cities.

This is madness of the very first order, and no monetary policy can address this problem.  We understand that Putin has cancer, so perhaps Nature will offer an endpoint solution that allows eventual resolution of this insane tragedy.  She mostly always does this, as we all truly know.

[ June 15, 2022 ] - We Might Have to Vote for Biden - despite the insanity of the American Leftists.  Biden and the USA is doing the right thing, as is Trudeau and Freeland in Canada.  Ukraine needs weapons.  They need a *lot* of weapons.  They have shown the world, their soldiers are not afraid to die to defend their Homeland.  That is the measure of true courage, and it deeply impresses the World.  Russia is acting the role of the perfect, evil monster - all because of Putin, and his personal madness.   This is a bad situation.

So, we have to give the Ukrainians weapons.   All that we have.  And then more.   This is the only choice, a sane and just person can make.  Biden is putting US dollars, and hardware, where his mouth is, and we are very impressed by that.  So did Trudeau.  I disgree with much of what Trudeau has done - but he has done right by the cause of global freedom.   Freedom, in the end, is all that really matters.  This is the truth - as Vaclav Havel said - and it is the place where every good person likes to live, and raise his or her family.   Russia is murdering not just Ukrainian citizens and soldiers - it is murdering it's own freedom and it's own success.  This is sad.  But the actions of Biden are good.   It's that simple.

 

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/us-to-announce-additional-650-million-in-weapons-for-ukraine-1.1779225

I think we should arm Ukraine with **everything** we have, and call the bluff of the Great Force of Evil, that Putin is trying to create.    Putin is attacking Europe - lets be clear about this.  He is attacking us.  Many folks just don't see it yet.

[ June 14, 2022 ] - Burning Down the House - The American Left seems to want to destroy the USA.  Curious.  The Democrats and the "woke" folks more and more appear as a strange and quite unusual threat to our future.  We cannot help wondering if a subtle campaign is being run, by some bad folks, offshore, to encourage the evident 'devolution' of the USA.

Edward Thorpe (who wrote "Beat the Dealer"), a book about how to win at gambling games of chance (Blackjack), is now 89.  Wow.  The smart folks are getting old and are fading out.  This will cost us all, I suspect.  It is the Bernie Madoff types who are running things now.   This is a problem.   We all want to be the "House", and earn excess profits at the expense of the stupid people.  But this is perhaps not a great strategy, if it makes the *Big-Stupid* become the dominant world-force.  This will bring ruin down upon all of us. 

Thorpe identified the Madoff Fraud early on, as did Markopolos.  Thorpe simply checked on the S&P Index trades, that supposedly were making Madoff's portfolio always make money, month in and month out, and he found there was no record of them at the dealer's office.  But few even believed him.  So curious.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-investor-who-spotted-madoffs-fraud-early-has-a-whole-new-worry-11655196333?siteid=yhoof2

It's interesting that Thorpe is worried about (or at least comments carefully on) the same issues we are looking at.   We see the USA heading for some very real conflict, as the "Normies" are being put in jail now, for any action that protests agains the "Woke Socialists" - (the "Wokzi's?" - kinda like an anagram of "Nazi's").    Elon Musk is quite correct, in calling out ugly platforms like "Twitter" (and the other social media monopoly processes), which are shutting out at least 50% of American public opinion from their sites.   And the "Let's Get Trump Show" on TV, is just an appalling debasement of any kind of honest justice - it is politics of the lowest, and most abusive - a "Trial by Television" - designed to harvest action from radical Leftists, and support the Democrat Party.  It is just shameful.

I think back to the very violent Anti-War-in-Vietnam protests - which were intense, and make the Jan. 6th "Election Fraud" protest in Washington look quite tame.   We always thought that protests were part of a democratic society - a way for governments to learn, and see up close and clearly, when their actions have become abusive, dangerous and contrary to the "Will of the People".  The Congress was meeting to "Certify the Election", and a LOT of people felt that the election was bogus, and should not be certified.   

You can't just write them off, an say their views do not matter.  They are HALF of America.  I watched the USA election results, and regardless of what the "Wokzi's" say, it sure looked bogus to me.  It honestly looked like the "Big Media" and "Big Tech" and Democrat Party were not getting the results they wanted (and engineered, so carefully), so they shut-down the vote-counting process, and arranged for a bunch of "Biden Ballots" to be found, and counted.  Perhaps these really all were quite legitimate - but the optics of the process was profoundly disturbing.

And even more worrisome, is that the statistical distribution of votes, from the "Bags of Biden Ballots", did not match what the election-night vote looked like - at least this is what some analysts have reported.  But that story has disappeared.   Curious.

Perhaps Biden won fair and square.  Perhaps.   But trust was lost, and this is a very serious problem.   And this "Let's Get Trump Show" on television, is only fanning the flame of anger.  It is not just abusive - it is probably unwise.   Show-trials are never a good idea.   Any good film-maker knows that the camera lies, because it crops reality into a false, bounded image. 

But anyone now, who opposes the idiocy and abusive stupidity of the racist "woke" Democrats, is accused of being a "White Nationalist" or some other such silly, emotionally-charged propaganda-style political label.   This is all looking seriously unwise.

Thorpe suggests a set of not-very-attractive-outcomes are possible, and likely await us in the near future, and we are concerned he may be correct - again.

[ June 12, 2022 ] - Modern Times - Or is it "Post-Modern Times?"  And what comes after "Post-Modern" -  "Post-Post-Modern?"   Or perhaps it should be "The Time of the Big Stupid?"   Unclear.  We can say, that risk is rising.  The floors of the world are getting slippery...

https://xkcd.com/2038/

and a fall looks possible.  We seem to be having a self-created energy-crisis.  We need to looks for solutions to this.   How about steam-powered cars?  We could fuel them with plutonium, and they would even run on Mars.

[ June 11, 2022] - Silly Science - A lot of the research we do, cannot be published here, because of course it is for clients, and is their "edge" (we both hope), and so I write about other things.  But the madness of the world at present, is provoking some pro-bono research - basically along the lines of "What the fuck is wrong with people now?  Why is everyone (including our Leaders), acting insane or stupid-beyond-belief, and "Are things really as bad as they seem?".   This is a trenchant line of critical inquiry, I am starting to suspect.  Too much crazy-bad-really-unwise things are happening one after the other.  Everything is getting very, very silly.

And look, it is not just me.  Former US Treasury Secretary (basically the USA's Minister of Finance), Larry Summers, has said the initial inflation forecasts from the US Federal Reseve (the USA's Central Bank) were "delusional" and their more recent forecasts have been  "ridiculous."  This is strong language, from a smart guy.  And it is 100% spot-on correct.   But why is only this retired guy is saying this?  WTF is wrong with the current crop of "experts"?   Why are they almost *all* being so fucking stupid?  The Washington "Democrats" are succeeding in making Trump and his gang, actually look good.  This is surprising, is it not?

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/larry-summers-says-fed-forecasts-look-ridiculous-warns-on-rate-delay-1.1777285

This is an actual honest question, not an angry rant.   Of course, as a scientist, I have to look at the "Dunning-Kruger Effect", (the 1999 study which offered evidence that not-smart people tend to significantly over-rate their abilities).   Now, this famous "Effect" may well be why low-wattage (dim-bulb) people, who are "street-smart" (ie. good at vicious political in-fighting), tend to end up in top-jobs.  They get there because of political skills and knowledge of organizational & administrative "trade-craft", not because they understand the business.   They are good at being back-stabbing bastards and have learned to employ political henchment effectively.  (cf. Putin of Russia, a skilled spy-master and a serial poisoner - and a very bad - and very unwise  - "Leader" guy.)

The Federal Reserve is a special case, because they used to be quite good.  But their top guy is now a **lawyer**, not an economist.   Is this a case of "bringing a knife to a gunfight?"  Maybe.

Also interesting, is some real science that suggests the "Dunning-Kruger Effect" is an artifact of how the analysis was done.  This is actually a big deal.   We find a *lot* of examples of artifacts in data, and you can test this, by system-generating some pseudo-random data, and running it thru your analytic-predictive system.  The results are often surprising - the random data turns out to: 1) look a lot like your "real-world" data, which says something important, and 2), often, will give results that support your thesis or validate your predictive efforts - which is even more problematic.

Check this little note, from McGill University in Montreal  ( a not-bad school..  They have done some very good work, in a number of interesting fields.  Plus, Montreal is a great city to meet attractive girls, and have a fine night-life, which makes study at McGill a very fine thing indeed.)

https://www.mcgill.ca/oss/article/critical-thinking/dunning-kruger-effect-probably-not-real

[ June 10, 2022 - Mad World Markets -The Market has figured out that raising interest rates, will not do anything to reduce $120 per barrel oil, or end the insane war being inflicting on Ukraine and Europe by Putin's military Gangsters..  But it will raise business costs, and put pressure on asset values.

Real food and energy shortages already exist, and the high-prices we are seeing reflect this.  Raising rates too far, too fast, will just hammer households and businesses that are being stretched by big cost jumps in primary inputs.  As we have often noticed with "Government Policy" exercises, it is often massively better for Governments to simply "DO NOTHING".  But "Do-something-ism" is now deeply hardwired into political behaviour.  This is unfortunate.

Almost always, any "Government Policy" moves, tend to make bad situations become worse.  The markets seem to have figured out that this rapid pivot from easy money policy, to tight money policy by the government Central Banks, is looking like it might induce and amplify a market-negative scenario.  The violence of the down-move today (June 9th), and it's breadth (every single stock on my quote page went red, except for Ontario Hydro), was intense..  This kind of risk-off move on every single asset is pretty rare, considering the large dog's breakfast of diverse stuff that we watch.   We seem to get farther away from sanity and stability every day, lately.  Curious.

Apparently, dogs have two genetic sequences, different from wolves, which make dogs friendly.  If the leaders of the world had at least as much sense as my dog has, we would have more wisdom and less madness and violence in this world.  But no chance of that, I fear. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u1ZvPSpLxCg

[ June 9, 2022 ] - "Data!  We Need More Data!" - We shout this like the Engineer on an old steam-train, shouting for coal.  We must fire the "boilers" with more data.  So much we understand now - it is comical. 

"Randomness only becomes dangerous, when it starts to look orderly." - an old stock-market expression.  Except it actually IS orderly - more orderly than most folks realize.    But it is not concious.  Is there a God of the Markets?  Is there a "They" in the markets?  No and probably no - except for sometimes, when the "They is Us".  "We have met the Enemy, and they is Us!" (This was from a 1971 "Pogo" comic...)

https://library.osu.edu/site/40stories/2020/01/05/we-have-met-the-enemy/

My best education came from reading the newspapers in the morning, with my father and brother, before going to school in the morning. I was really young, but I would read everything - and then have to leave and waste time at school doing stupid tasks with low-quality folks.  It was comical - truly the school nonsense really interfered with my education.  I remember asking why there was a big LIST in the paper, that had the label of "Unlisted Securities".  In the USA, they were smarter, and called the crappy, secondary junk stocks the "Pink Sheet" stocks, since their prices were printed on pink sheets of paper, or maybe the trading tickets were pink? 

European Parliament has voted to end production of cars with petrol and diesel engines by 2035.   In Germany, they have decided to shutdown their nuclear reactors.  And they have also voted to stop buying Russian oil and gas.  WTF?.  Does anyone see a problem here?   This "Green Nazi" nonsense has got to be tempered with sanity.  We have seen the "worst case" scenarios with exploding nuclear plants in Japan and Russia - and Canada - but most folks forget the Chalk River thing - thank-you SRI Reading Labs.  I was such a meganerd in public school - in Grade Three, at "Recess", I would sneak back into the classroom, and read the SRI reading-lab articles from the back (you were supposed to read the simple stupid-kid articles from the front, but they were boring.)  But the "Purple-Coded" articles from the end, were really interesting, and one of them had all the details of the famous Chalk River research nuclear reactor meltdown - and subsequent clean-up.  It was absolutely fascinating.   And it kinda stuck with me.  And Jimmy Carter too, as it turned out.  :)

Anyway, we see the World tracking towards a madness. And what is fascinating now, is that this is pretty much exactly what happened once the "Black Death" of the late 1300's in Europe, finally receded.  People went nuts.   There were outbreaks of "Dancing Sickness" - which were well documented, and became known as a medical affliction that doctor's studied, because it became so common.   This is why the "Black Death" wood-cut pictures often show skeletons playing music, and dancing.

Sadly, the Putinistas of Russia like to dance in the blood and ruins of their neighbours.   The United Nations should be abandoned, and a Euro-NorthAmerican military exercise should be started in Ukraine, to address the illegal Russian assault in Donbas and South Ukraine, even if it means risking a little nuclear war.   Putin needs to be lamposted - like Il Duce of Italy was.   A nation needs to learn to resist the allure of Medieval Fascism, which is what Putin is bringing to poor Russia.    He is *not* Alexander Nevsky.   Ukraine was feeding and enriching Russia, not harming it.  Putin's fucking idiot thug army has attacked their best and most honourable friends.  A dumbshit Leader that does something so stupid and cruel needs to be removed - like Kurtz - with extreme prejudice.  It may take a journey into the Heart of Russian Darkness - but the World should offer a reward for his arrest and trial.

What is going on now, is a kind of insanity that pins the meters off the scale.  It is pure, extreme madness of the most vile and tragic kind.  It is sad that we are supposed to just sit back and watch this insane abuse, and not assist the Ukrainians.  Canada is at least trying, but we cannot give them our secret nuclear weapons, since officially, we do not have any.  Crazy.

And we suspect that the European car-drivers, and auto-makers, might just vote to disband the European Parliament, since it is becoming stupid, annoying, and abusive.

What other choice do they have?  Be like those Monty Python folks in "Holy Grail", digging in the mud, and forming "collectives" of the poor and dirty, who have no energy supplies, cold dark cities, and dig in mud to survive? - kinda like my Irish relatives probably did long ago, back in Ireland.  The wise ones used the peat-bogs to grow barley, and then make and flavour Irish whiskey.  The poor ones just dried it (the peat, not the whiskey!) and burned it to keep warm.  Energy supplies matter.  (They *drank* the whiskey, to keep warm, of course.)

A Europe with no petrol cars and trucks, and no nuclear reactors to make electricity at scale, is going to be a poor and nasty place.   So we predict the end of the "European Union", since that would allow the "European Parliament" to be ended, which is probably a much better idea, than commiting economic suicide - and going back to digging in muddy peat bogs to keep warm.

What is interesting, is how the markets are discounting two very different "future pictures" - one very positive, where we get our sh/t together, fix the insanity, and decide to run things right - and the other, where everything goes off the rails, and civilization itself gets kicked to the curb by bad decisions and the resulting conflict those trigger.  (Soros is not a stupid man.  He offered an honest warning about this at Davos.)

I lean toward the postive outcome happening.  But we have to always keep in mind that the human capacity for cruelty, stupidity, and idiotic madness, seems to know no limit.  Putin's Russia is showing the absolute truth of this right now.  It is madness almost beyond belief.

[ June 8, 2022 ] - Gosh Darn Python 2.7 on Jupyter Notebooks - been trying to get a Jupyter Notebooks project (which works fine on a couple of 32-bit machines - just fine), working with Python 2.7, on another machine. No way, it appears.

The fine folks who took over this Jupyter project have turned it into a bit of a bloat-bag.  They have  arrange things so one cannot use Python 2.7 (and all it's most fine utilities and modules), on the "Jupyter Notebooks" environment.    The world of "free software" is turning into something that looks like cluster-bombing crap-attacks of cross-dependent mung, most of which is toxic, and is about as stable as a viral cluster of warm liquid on a toilet-seat in a whorehouse.

I wrote a really angry rant - but I have removed most of it, since I figured out (and have already built part of..) a fine workaround.

(I really now understand why old guys were always cranky.  It's because they saw new stuff that was really good - constantly morph into bloated junk with tailfins and flashing idiot-lights.  After 40 or 50 years of seeing this phenomenon over and over and over, it just makes one bad tempered. )

I really disagree with this concept of taking good, solid, working software, and declaring it to be "End of Life".  That is just wrong.  It's actually pretty abusive.

Here is what might be the solution?

https://me.me/i/back-the-fuck-up-its-a-goddamn-python-virtual-environment-73dfbda9ff57424995de53325d87c7ae

Except, I tried that.  All that approach did - was give me yet another NON-WORKING PYTHON KERNEL SPEC in the Jupyter environment THAT DOES NOT WORK.  I now have three kernel specs - but no working kernel of Python 2.7, so I am done with Jupyter and Notebooks.  To hell with that nonsense server-client foolishness.  

It should be easy to define whatever interpreter environment you want to run, in a server-client thing like Jupyter, and have it JUST WORK.  We have had multi-process/multi-user systems with UNIX pipelines since I was a tiny child - and they work fine.    I am so truly disgusted by what has happened to Jupyter Notebooks, that I want now to build something myself that works. 

And, I just did.  Bloody thing works nice.  I have a working prototype already, with the editor in Tcl/Tk, and a run-window, which can run interactive Python 2.7 (but not as "Notebooks"...), and fling up a graphic display on the desktop, using 'TkArg'  parm of _Tkinter.   Just tested it - and the concept work NICE.  (I am feeling "chuffed", as I think is the old English expression, I learned once on a trip to the UK.)

No one really knows how to think well, until they are in their 40's  (or 50's... and beyond...).  This is the truth of things.  Really.

What would be good, would be to teach the young lads who want to break the world, some Greek and Roman classics, and then send them off to war, so the slow and stupid ones can get killed, and the smart ones can get wised up real quick, and be more productive in a sane and sensible way, much sooner in their lives.   The rapid progress of the 20th century, was built on the profound wisdom of the Victorians, who both knew about this problem, and then applied the harsh - but effective - algorithm to fix it.

[ June 7, 2022 ] - Despite All, We Continue to Continue - Strange times.  It's like a replay of the 1970's, except everything is happening on "internet time".  The Oil-Shock is harsh.  But it opens some wild and crazy opportunities.  (Eg;  Small, personal, portable nuclear reactors, for home and office.  (Really!) )

[ June 6, 2022 ] - The War in My Leg - I think I have either a wild viral infection, and/or a runaway immune-response thing happening in my left leg.  Large painful, rope-like lumps - terribly painful - form under the skin, and then seem to heal up.  Maybe DVT, or maybe a whole bunch of possible things I've discovered on Google...   Comical, really, since I have to heal on my own, I guess.   Cannot seem to access a doctor, and do not want to go to hospital "Emergency", since it is always a crowded sh/tshow of sick people, and also now, a Covid-19 ground-zero. One must manage risk dynamically. 

Strange times.    I suspect this weird thing in my leg is a reaction to the Pfizer/Biontech vaccine, I got back in February.   It started about two weeks after I got the vaccine.   What is interesting, is that the healing process seems to be working.  There is an actual viral war going on in my leg.  And I think I and my immune system are winning it.  Did a long walk around the fields today, with my dog, and felt almost no pain.  Curious.  I honestly believe there is great benefit to be gained, by staying the hell away from most doctors.  Not all, of course, and not the surgeons - when you need some repair, you likely really need the repair.  And vaccines work.  They just bloody well work, and are worth the pain and risk they involve. 

A good vaccine, is like a missile-defence system for your body.   As you lie in bed at night, you can actually feel the healing happen, as the invading virus-agents - and their associated toxins - are neutralized.  

There is very little in one's life, that feels more rewarding than to be attacked by a cruel enemy, and then crushing the force of the filthy bastard, slowly, methodically and with clear, singular focus.

Tech:

Back to doing some more tech hacking on the platform that seems to be calling the future most successfully.  Several years back, I built a bunch of stuff using Python.  Have returned to it, as it looks to be the fastest/bestest way, to get some working data frames.    We are seeing such silly up-and-down action in the markets - I should be trading *a lot* more than I am.  But when feeling like sh/t, the energy-levels degrade.   The machines are saying things are good and getting better, but the gut is sending out a different message.  Elon Musk is maybe right.  When I get these weird bad feelings - I have learned not to ignore them.    There are some serious risks on the horizon now, which make the hair stand up on the back of my neck - just like my dog, when she barks at the turkeys (we have these *huge* wild turkeys in the fields and forest this year.  They are grey, with large bodies and small heads, and make the place look like "Jurassic Park").

Python is a weirdly strange language.  I need to re-compile my source version (2.7.14), with a proper TLS-1.2 SSL, so the goddamn thing can import modules, using "pip" on my custom Linux hack-boxes.   The kinky thing about Python, is the genius interpreter idea.  Most computing is moving stuff around, and running existing programs.  Python is a reasonable "glue-language" environment, and it has a philosophy of not being a wankers bit-fiddle butcher-bucket of glop, like so many C/c++ environments (or Perl, for f*** sakes).   Here is a page: "The Zen of  Python"

https://peps.python.org/pep-0020/

The ideas generalize.  I would also add, that Python meets the "George Patton" dictum: "A merely *good* plan, executed today, with vigour and speed, is often much better than a really *excellent* plan, executed a few weeks from now, when the time for action has passed."  I am not sure if he really said that, but it sure as hell is true in the World of Finance, Markets and Money.  (And maybe in Love, also?)   :)

 

[ June 1, 2022 ] - World Going Completely Bonkers - Absolutely nutbar, silly bonkers - crazy politicians doing amazingly stupid things, bad policy, unwise choices, foolish short-term "do-somethingism" which will almost certainly take us all into crazy, un-needed conflict and wild extreme scenarios.   No one, in positions of power and privilege, seems to have any sense anymore.   Truly, we are not sure why.  

A little "retail relaxation" was in order.  I bought a new thing - and of course, being here in the Great White North, it will be many weeks before I am allowed to take it home from the store.  Here is a video of what I bought (hint: It is a fine, precision instrument, manufactured in the Czech Republic.  I have a very, very soft spot in my heart, for Prague, and really all things Czech - from beer, to camera equipment, to semi-auto's.  The Czech folks are us, like the Ukrainians and the Polish people are - and the Scots and the Germans and the Brits and the Swedes.  Here, we are Europe, Version 2.0, truth be told.  Oh, and the French also, of course.  Lots and lots of French, which make Montreal the coolest city on this planet - also another quiet local truth.)   But today, we are thinking of fine things Czech...

https://youtu.be/3qt1qm-rMHk

I literally have to wait for paperwork from several government agencies - Provincial and Federal, before I can take my new purchase home from the store - and then out to the Range.   :)

[ May 26, 2022 ] - Nothing Success Like Success - This seems so obvious - but it is difficult to actualize, quite often.  You know what you must do - but the doing of it is difficult, so you shy away and fail.  Don't be a pussy.  If it needs to be done, and your analysis says it must be done, then the only option is to do it, painful and difficult as it might well be.  Pain can be helpful - it is Nature's Way of letting us know we are not yet rotting dead meat, and that life is able to be a wonderful goddamn thing.  :)

If any humans are reading this - the stock we held, is up another $1.25 as I key this, and the DJIA is up over 500 points (again).  Mr. Market is in one of his manic phases today.   Everyone in the world knows we have to bomb our dear Russia, and burn their cities, like they are burning down Ukrainian cities - but we still have not managed to cross this Rubicon just yet.  But I think Soros is correct - this is a river that will have to be crossed.  It may result in a nasty little (or not so little) nuclear war, but it is gonna have to happen.  Russia has become an advance Terror State, on par with Osama Bin Laden, and the rest of the World cannot put it's head up it's ass, and pretend that this reality has not transpired.   Difficult action will be required...   Unless the Russians can arrest and imprison Putin for mass-murder and his other War Crimes.

Meanwhile the markets are flying.  We are doing so well in Canada, that is is almost embarrassing.   "Money for nothing, and your chicks for free"  ( I think it was a poultry farmer who said that...)

The Canadian Banks are doing fine.  If you are curious, you might want to see what AIRB risk analysis methodologies are mandated by the OSFI, for the Canadian Banks (an old High-School buddy of mine, used to be the OSFI boss.  He was a very clever and focused dude, with a high degree of personal integrity, and high-grade executive abilitity.   I think all this stuff the OSFI put together, was created on his watch.  There are some smart folks at the OSFI, and I think this approach has kept our Banks honest, careful, and nicely profitable.  Details in the URL below:

https://www.osfi-bsif.gc.ca/Eng/fi-if/rg-ro/gdn-ort/gl-ld/Pages/Self_Inst_Ja06.aspx

See, the OSFI created this reasonably standardized approach, and the Banks report according to this model approach - which still gives them latitude to have their own risk-models.   Risk is a funny thing - it is never absent.   Every trade, every business action involves real, true risk.  But you never can really get a complete handle on it.  This is the "unknown unknowns problem", and is always evident.    Taleb labelled it the "Black Swan" (which was found in Australia, after being a legend and a fictious thing, in European culture).   This insane terror-war in Ukraine is almost a Black Swan, except US Intelligence folks learned about the preparations, and the USA told the world.   Good for them.   It is the dumbest, most ass-fuckingly evil-stupid insane thing I have ever seen in my lifetime, and I would honestly have said that it would not happen.  But I would have been wrong, since human cruelty and stupidity knows no real limit.

If it takes a world-smashing nuclear war to explain to the Russians that this sort of shit-licking evil is not to be allowed, then it will just have to be a cost we will have to bear.  

But it would be better, if a bunch of honorable and good Russian citizens could engineer a change in regime, regardless of how it could be done.  That would be a better outcome for the World.

Personally, I would nuke Putin from orbit, since this insane Hitler-style exercise in mass-murder will not end, until Russian cities are burning the same way that Ukrainian cities are.  Until Moscow looks like Mariupol, the lick-shit toads in Putin's Gangster-group, will not be weakened sufficiently to allow the good people to act, I suspect.   Russians must feel motivated to make a change - like they did in 1917.    I used to really like and respect the Russians.   So for me, this whole thing has an ugly, pesonal element, that makes me non-objective now.  I feel personally betrayed by Putin and his henchmen.    That fucker cheated us, lied to us all, and is now threatening the World with nuclear assault.   That fucker has to face the consequence of his very, very bad actions.

Curiously, there are a few others who have figured this out.   Putin must *lose* this ugly war.   Most Americans, strange as it may seem, show evidence of having no clue about the need for this, or really about much of anything else, now.  Not sure why...  But this women understands, and has the courage to write the truth:

https://www.anneapplebaum.com/2022/05/23/defeating-putin-is-the-only-route-to-peace-in-ukraine/

Market Hackery - "No Man is so Innocently Employed, as One Who Is Making Money".   And maybe, this is true?  I was deeply happy to see Russia get rich.  A rich Russia is good for Russians, and good for the World.  What Putin has done, is a Crime against Russians, as much as it a crime against the Ukrainians.   The Russians have given the world so much.  We use their math to make money.   And making money means we can ALL live well.   War is a crazy, an evil sickness which is sometimes forced upon honourable people who must defend themselves, against invading monsters - a true creation of *hell* in this World.   And Putin - personally - is the author of this current horrific conflict.  This is just so damn sad.   We will have to study war - again.  And we will have to win.

The skills between market hackery, and the aiming of anti-aircraft weapons, are not very different.   WW2 taught us this.   What is interesting, are the auto-correlation characteristics of some time-series.  Prices, and the first-difference, or rate-of-return values of a price series - those are very interesting.  I just discovered some stuff from these Wolfram guys.  Probably just a guy named Wolfram.  Cool stuff.  Here is a cool interactive graphic of a stationary series...

https://demonstrations.wolfram.com/AutocorrelationAndPartialAutocorrelationFunctionsOfAR1Proces/

There are these silly trades one can make - day in and day out - that make a little bit of money (until one day, when they lose it all, and then some!).   Market processes are interesting - and they are the only thing I have found on the entire internet, that I can make money with, on a reasonably consistant basis.   But you had better do your risk-control stuff, or you will get done like a Russian kid driving a shit-stained Soviet-era tank, as the Javelin missile blasts him into little pieces of red bits.  "Statistical Arbitrage" is a stupid name.   They should call it "Market-based DiddleHacking - MBDH" and report it as a line-item of profit, in the "Capital Markets" section of the Quarterly Report.

[ May 25, 2022 ] - Dumb Guy - Sold the leveraged part of my position, which I put on, driven by the AI uptick, because I just felt too much risk.   Dumb and dumber, since the company we testbed with, reported a solid earnings beat, and the stock is zooming up.  Bugger.  At least we still have a truckload of the original postion, in a couple of different portfolios.  Pretty funny - I can predict the future reasonably well, but I still am not yet very good at trading it profitably.  :/

Canada is sending 20,000 155mm artillery shells to Ukraine, for the big M777's.   Rock on, guys.  Defend the Homeland from the "Zombie" forces.  No-one lives forever.  If you die fighting the forces of pure evil, your life (and your death) have real meaning.  But of course, do your best to "Come Back Alive!".   Ukrainians are showing the world what true human purpose and honest courage looks like.  We should send them a bunch of our F-18's (and some ASLM's) to sink the Russian murder-ships infesting the Black Sea, and trying to starve the World of Ukrainian food exports.   Putin's Russia has become a Terror State.   Russia should be declared a "State Sponsor of Terrorism", and it's ports should be blockaded by a UN-authorized military action.

 

[ May 24, 2022 ] - World Going Dark, New Leaders Needed - We have to get out our horses, and ride out to where Cincinnatus is running his farm - and beg him to come and lead our armies.   The times demand change.

https://www.mountvernon.org/library/digitalhistory/digital-encyclopedia/article/cincinnatus/

[ May 23, 2022 ] - Shaken - and Stirred-Up - Boris Bondarev:  Heroic Teller of Truth. Russian diplomat resigns in disgust because of Putin's Terror War & Lavrov's Lies.  Good for Mr. Bondarev.   The Invasion and murderous, illegal Terror-War against Ukraine by Russian military forces, is pure madness, and has set Russia back into a dark-age of cruel violence and economic isolation.  It is deeply wrong, it will gain nothing for Russia, and it was completely un-necessary.  Mr. Bondarev has done the right thing by speaking out against it, and will now walk a dangerous path.

https://www.npr.org/2022/05/23/1100731559/russian-diplomat-un-quits-ashamed

Strange and sad times for many.

Meanwhile, back at the AI (Artificial Intelligence) Ranch... The forecast from the AI seems to be working.  All Cdn markets closed today for Victoria Day (We love our old, dead Queen Victoria.  She helped create our Homeland.)     The US Bank Stocks caught fire today.  Up and away, it seems.   The AI called a bottom on Friday.  Curious.  It is mindless, but it is also better (mostly) than the community of pundits and analysts.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/jpmorgan-fuels-rally-in-banks-and-the-us-stock-market-1.1769625  

[ May 22, 2022 ] - The Great Retracement - Markets appear to be in synchronized downshift mode.  "Retracement" is the term.  We are of course concerned that this may be the "Great Retracement", in which the stimulus-fueled gains of the last 10 years, are unwound - perhaps in a much shorter time frame than they were built up.

Synchronized events of negative market motivators are:  Idiotic and insane Russian war-action in Urkraine.  This is abuse and evil and madness which is true "Black Swan" stuff.  It destroys Russia as a political and economic entity, and it costs the world food, customers, and productive producers.  It is madness.    But it gets worse, when Covid-Zero in China, and the supply and production problems that this causes, combined with the global high-inflation that the money-supply expansion has caused, and that thus provokes the USA (and others, of course), to raise administered interest rates.  Probably a lot more than they are already now.  Oh, and we are seeing an "oil shock" to the global economy, that is almost the same intensity that we saw in 1973, when the Saudi's hired a US consulting firm to tell them where to price their oil  (Recall those third-year ECON courses:  viz: "Products Which Have Demand Characteristics Which Exhibit High Degree of Price Inelasticity "  - like both insulin and gasoline do?   You can set the price at just about any level, and roughly the same amount of product will be consumed.  Except that if the market-clearing price is too high, you start to see your customers begin to die off.)

Combine this nasty economic storm, with the political turmoil that is evident in every nation now, and you get a clear algorithm for synchronized ** market retracement ** - which of course, we have to call "The Great Retracement", because that just seems to be what it needs to be called - for obvious political and social-scientific reasons.

The one interesting thing, is that our mindless AI has tilted up.  Just ran it with Friday's close numbers, and we still get the curve showing a bottom, and a tiny tilt upwards.  

So we may be at - or near - a local bottom.  We have already lost between 20% to 30% from the high-water price-levels of 4 to 6 months back (depending on whether you consider the DJIA and S&P or the Nasdaq Index as your benchmark, against which you measure your tracking error).

Let's be clear.  We are worried - and reduced a large part of the leveraged position we took on. (We are *always* too early, in both entering and exiting positions.   Just seems to be that way...  I just seem to see stuff before others, and have not yet learned sufficient patience...)

But the AI is clear.  It says we are primed for an up-move.    I can post this on a Sunday, and now we will take the old vintage Lincoln out for a drive.    Best 73's.

[ May 20, 2022 ] - Are We Not Men? - We are down low.   And we worry we might have brought a knife to a gunfight. 

"Rome is your fwiend!"

[ May 19, 2022 ] - When the World is Running Down... - Go long.    Make your bet on the Power Rangers of Freedom.  :)

We killed Hitler in his bunker once. (Our Dad's and Mom's did it, actually.)   We just have to do it again.  Hitler Version 2.0 is named Vladimir Putin.   You know where he lives, right?

See, now, it's our turn.   Plowshares into yellowcake, yellowcake in to UF6, boil the UF6 in a steam-kettle, and whisk the puff into the centrifuges.   Spin-baby-spin, and out comes the "Dust of Freedom Dash 235".  A kilo or two at each end of a binary doublewhumper cannon, some TNT, a charged battery, and some fast electronics to make sure each *whump* happens at the same time, and quote me that Hindi scripture, eh?  "I have become Freedom, the Creator of New Worlds!"   Duck, yeah!  (or something like that...)

See, it is gonna get interesting, when any kid with a 240-volt 3-phase connection to the grid, a pile of hot rocks, and some welding kit, a machine-shop, and some chem-lab stuff, is able to fab his own "Davy Crocket" rockets.   Unless we let the Russians kill the whole world, and burn down all the libraries, the Blue-Genie of Science is now out in the world.   And with Science there is real Power, and with some funding, the Power can be converted into Freedom.  Real, serious tangible Freedom.   Because the prime-driver of science advancement, has always been weapons research.  Yes, this is true.  Really.    Almost all major science and industrial development action, has been driven by weapons research. 

And remember, Libraries will get you thru times of no money, better than Money will get you thru times of no Libraries.  Ask the kids at the schools in Mariupol, if you doubt this truth.  Oh, wait.. they are all dead, aren't they?  Well, go make some more.   Get busy. 

And about NATO: Most folks don't even know that NATO was a Canadian idea.   And that Lester Pearson, defeated the Conservative Government of John Diefenbaker, because Pearson INSISTED UPON having Bomarc nuclear missiles ON CANDIAN TERRITORY - here, able to launch against any invading Russian bombers.    The Tories wimped-out, and Pearson's Liberals engineered a "No Confidence" defeat of the Conservatives in Parliament.  This saved us from nuclear attack, we suspect (but cannot prove, of course.)   The Tory PM, Diefenbaker, was an unwise tragic fool, despite being able to play the part of what appeared to be, a good and honourable statesman.  So sad. Really sad, actually.)  

Pearson probably saved Canada, but history gives him little credit.  He might have actually saved the world, also.  Trudeau (the father of the current PM), was another arrogant ass, much like "Dief the Chief" (god help us),  It is the man, not the Party, who matters, our history has taught us...

NATO was crafted to prevent insane, (and planned - we know this for a fact, based on our intelligence info) Russian nuclear attack on North America.   The Russians can simply get batshit crazy, because of their awful, twisted, and horribly nasty government and spy-system apparatus (goes back to Czarist times, truth be told.)  Hell, probably goes back to St. ("Kill them All!") Olga of Kiev.   The Russians can be crazy evil - much like the Germans can.  It's a family fight, after all.  Know this.

NATO saved us - and probably the USA and England (the UK) also.  Post-War Europe also got saved.  Trudeau version 1.0 wanted to exit NATO, and focus on spending slush-money in Canada to support folks in Quebec.   Then, someone explained the World to him, and he got wisdom (probably Pearson did this, we don't know who actually.)

Lester Pearson, the Liberal Prime Minister, was a careful genius.  He was a quiet, funny guy, spoke with a lisp, and had an IQ like Issac Newton, it looks like, in retrospect.  He was a truly brilliant political operative, and a man of astonishing vision, integrity, and an actual true genius - much like John A. MacDonald, our first Prime Minister, and the man responsible for creating the Dominion of Canada.  MacDonald was a Scotish Tory who drank too much, had a pretty but invalid wife whom he loved deeply.  He had a hot temper, and killed a kid in a duel when he was 18.  (He deeply regretted this, and was cleared of the crime, by a sympathetic Judge.) 

Pearson was a strong, peace-seeking Liberal, who wore a really goofy looking bow-tie, and came across as a Walter Mitty character, but who had a mind like a Caesar, and who armed Canada with nuclear weapons when it became necessary to do so.  Canada was by necessity, technologically advanced.  Canada was the third nation to launch a satellite, (After Russian and USA did) and it was a *working* television communications satellite.  We were also the first nation to clean up a complete nuclear-reactor meltdown, at Chalk River in 1952.   The Chalk River thing was very educational.  We really know nuclear here. The nasty Chalk River reactor meltdown & cleanup, is a fascinating story:

https://www.cns-snc.ca/media/history/nrx.html

I had thought NATO was a dumb idea, and was just a silly historical artifact.  I was *really* very wrong about that.  REALLY.  WRONG.   I just did not understand how truly insane and awful, Russian political people could really be.  They are *NOTHING* like us at all.  The correct model for Russian political people, is hyper-violent world of the USA gangsters of the 1930's.  (The Watergate Guy, who wrote "Will", Gordon Liddy, came to speak at our University, and explained this to me.  It turns out he was spot-on correct, and all the other jabbering head-mouths were wrong.   Curious how that occurs, is it not?)

Anyway, NATO has turned out to be exactly what we need, in the here and now.  And the Prime Minister of Finland, should study why Pearson (who was a real peace-nik, let's be clear), had Canada station a bunch of nuclear missiles on our territory, to deter Russian war-planning efforts.   You don't fuck with Canada.  We can be as blue-crazy (in the William Wallace kind of crazed Celtic-way) as any Slavic folks.  Maybe it's the Winter or something.  If you can survive a Canadian Winter, then a nice warm "Nuclear Winter" seems no problem at all.  We really, really understand and support the Ukrainians. There are a *lot* of Ukrainian flags around here.  Our landscape is a Ukrainian Flag.   Ukraine made a major error, giving up all it's nuclear weapons.  Nuclear weapons are necessary to ensure peace.  It is that simple.  Know this fact.

Here is the Canada role, in the founding history of NATO, from their website:

https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/declassified_161511.htm

And here is a link to history of St. Olga of Kiev (when Kiev was where the "King of all the Rus" monarchy was based, 1000 years ago.)  St. Olga is the Patron Saint of Revenge.   And I am not making a jest here:

http://www.todayifoundout.com/index.php/2014/01/saint-buried-people-alive-burned-city-revenge/

We must study history.  It is the detailed road-map, which shows us exactly how the hell we got to the curious place where we are right now.

And we need to embrace our nuclear history.  In my personal case, it is close.  My Mom's cousin was directly involved in uranium-enrichment from the Elliot-Lake motherlode.  The uranium from the Elliot Lake mine, was partially enriched, and then sent to that hillbilly site in USA, that was built to run the big gaseous diffusion factory.  That was where the 235 for the Trinity test, (and the Hiroshima device) came from - a machine my mom's cousin built.  Runs in the family, I guess.  In our case, hot rock enrichment is sort of family-business history.   We don't run any centrifuges, and we don't use any radio-hot material.  But in Canada, science is Science - it's a bit of a religion here.   My neighbour next road over, funded the Perimeter Institute  (a theoretical physics chalk-hall kind of shop), where Steven Hawking ended his days (before he went over the existential event-horizon.)   

We all need to recognize that nuclear weapons & atomic bombs are "really, really good things to have".  And unlike Madonna's boyfriends - they are good both to have AND to hold.  They are perfect machine devices for ensuring that greedy, gangster nutjob sadistic Russian fockwits, do not invade and destroy your Free Nation. 

Lester Pearson - a soft-spoken, bowtie-wearing Liberal peace-freak - had the genius to realize that there are times, when a sovereign nation needs the thing the French call the "Force de Frappe" - the "Strike Force", aka the Triad of Dissuasion, which De Gaulle insisted that France develop and maintain.    That Finnish Prime Minister, should study history, and not just knee-jerk respond to our World's tragic and silly current events.

Some history on the French efforts to build their "Force de Frappe":  They asked the USA for help, but the Americans told them to f*ck off because De Gaulle was such an astonishingly annoying pr/ck.  But the French got it done, and it worked.  Folks need to realize, everything we have that works, came from research in the 1940's to the 1970's.   It was a time of amazing technical, engineering and scientific progress.   The entire Moon Landing effort, was designed and implemented in less than 10 years.  We cannot seem to do big projects like this now.   Most stuff after the 1970's, is just deriviative work, various improvements, etc.   Here is a link to a declassified US military document on French "Force De Frappe" (nuclear disuassion) technology, from 1966:

https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/citations/ADA488151

The appropriate course of action for Finland is to place 50 tactical, nuclear-armed 1-megaton yield nuclear missiles all along it's border with Russia.  But not put any fuel in the missiles.  Make that fact clear to the Russians.  But have the missiles configured to detonate without being fired, should the need arise.   A Russian invasion, thus becomes very unlikely.  And the rockets could be fueled at anytime, if requirements might change, based on events.

Si Vis Pacem, Para Bellum.  (Have we heard this idea before, maybe?)

[ May 18, 2022 ] - Fool's Paradise - Enjoy the scenic beauty of things, while it remains possible to do so.   We seem to be on the cusp of the Great Apocalypse of Maximum Stupidity, and there is little the average person can do to alter the forward flow of this strange, destructive Plan.  Curious, indeed.

Could we just please at least terminate Vladimir Putin?   We could drop the thermo-nuke from space, and end that psychotic sadist, and his cabal of murderous hell-mongers?  That would at least restore some balance, justice and goodness to our sad planet.  No more talk or sanctions or chatterbot blah-blah-blah from head-mouths.  Just a few keystrokes, a launch-code, and some solid, effective results that would demonstrate that the World still had some sanity and capacity for justice and correct action.

It's time.  Really.  We could do this.   "Gentleman, we have the technology.  We can end this murderous, parasitic monster, and make the future of the World into something positive, good, honourable and fine.  Let's just do it.   Let's to it now."   I think I heard some guy say this at a meeting in the Pentagon.   Or maybe it was at that Air Force Base.    Really.  It's time for action.  Talk-time is ending.   Action-time is beginning.   Cry Havoc.   Go-code Green.

---

Ok, so yes, this idea above, remains in the realm of fiction.  And this is the other problem.  Sanctions will not stop Russia, or alter it's behaviour, given the obvious pre-conditions that exist.  We just have this existing insane scenario that makes the world poorer, and causes whole cities of people to be killed, and it seems there is nothing we can actually do about it.  This is very bad.

We were supposed to have this "United Nations" thing available to address exactly this type of problem, but it turns out, that the "United Nations" is just another political fraud.   And so we cannot make any real progress - at least until we can execute upon the kind of scenario described above. 

In the meantime, we really need to give Ukraine a much bigger Air Force, and some really serious fire-power and military hardware.    If, of course, we want to have things like food, peace, prosperity and freedom remain available to people on this planet.

[ May 13, 2022 ] - A Trip Around The Place - Busy times, checking & repairing properties.  Spectacular weather, good times.  We drove around various place in our local Homeland - and saw many Ukrainian flags.  Yellow and Blue.  The Yellow is for the fields of sunflowers, and the blue is for the lovely blue sky.  We have exactly the same colours here in the Great Wild North, as they do in Ukraine.  And suddenly, the schools have all these Ukrainian kids in them.   We are welcoming them.  They are really focused.  They will be *really* great folks to have in our wild Canadian matrix.

And speaking of yellow - we need to bake all that yellowcake, and get those spinners a-spinning.  Plowshares into swords, yellowcake into hexafluoride, and swing, swing, swing...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r2S1I_ien6A

Here that?  That's the sound of our centrifuges spinning.  

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7IjgZGhHrYY

The winds of change, are about to become a hurricane.  I've been to Helsinki.  It is a very beautiful city.

[ May 6, 2022 ] - Most Internet Traffic is Now Robots and Scams - And most trading activity on modern exchanges, is generated by AI's and algorithmic trading methods.   And public opinion is being actively managed by what can only be described as "agency operatives".

This presents a range of serious problems and risks.  The AI-driven stuff can be hacked in real-time, to do very bad things.  And public-opinion can be hacked to create mass-fraud, and enable terror-wars that sane folks would think are impossible.

Our IP# (supplied by our Internet provider), has had it's "reputation" damaged, by some sort of automated device, we suspect, so that "Cloudflare" (a site-security access-blocker firewall type tool) is now automatically blocking our access to a Ukrainian site we were monitoring.  

The world is getting both more nasty and much more stupid at the same time.

"Cloudflare" can be hacked this way, and turned into "CloudFAIL".

This is creating strange and extreme risks, combined with curious opportunities.

Our access to a Ukrainian site has now been *blocked*, because this "Cloudflare" company (which offers firewall service to websites), has decided, using it's Artificial Intelligence tools, that our IP#, (supplied by our internet service provider), is "has a bad reputation".  What these means, of course, is that some clever boys - somewhere else - can spoof your IP#, and just put it onto a blizzard of junkmail or some NMAP scan-attempts to break-in to a bunch of websites, and thus degrade the "reputation" of your IP#  (IP# is basically your internet address - unique as a phone number.)   This is a nasty, clever trick, we suspect.

We don't have bad software running at our end (we monitor packets in and out), but by trashing the "reputation" of our IP#, this completely blocks us from accessing the Ukrainian information site.

Pretty clever, eh?   The world is getting really nasty.   Our primary interest here, is to simply get the word out, that a co-ordinated attempt was made by  Russian operatives in Ukraine, to steal a MANPAD (Man-Portable Air Defense) missile launcher, and use it to shoot down a Russian airlliner - and blame the attack on Ukrainians.   This would inflame Russian public opinion, and justify a large scale-up in the Russian Terror-War underway in Ukraine.

This is VERY BAD STUFF.   We want to try to prevent this kind of ugly "FALSE FLAG" terrorist attack from occuring.  We want to prevent a Russian airliner full of innocent people from being killed by Putin's FSB goons.

Best way to prevent this - is to neutralize the value of the exercise.  Make everyone aware that AN ATTEMPT WAS ALREADY MADE TO TRY TO DO THIS.  We know the name of the goon that was running the operation, and the Ukrainian-Russian "dual citizens" behind the attempted theft, have been already arrested by Ukrainian Law Enforcement.

But if and when a Russian airliner is brought down by a Stinger missile or a Javalin anti-tank rocket, we want everyone to know that Ukraine is ACTIVELY TRYING TO PREVENT THIS terrorist-style attack, and that THIS WAS A PLANNED ACTION BY RUSSIAN AGENTS operating in Ukraine.  (See May 1st note below for details.)

And an attack has been made against our IP#, apparently - sufficient to make it impossible for us to access the Ukrainian information site where this latest "False Flag" terror attack attempt was reported.

Serious stuff.

[ May 5, 2022 ] - When in Danger or in Doubt, Shout & Sell & Try to Cash Out? - Markets are getting quite twitchy - running up 900 points in USA-land on Fed. Reserve interest rate increases on first day, and then crashing down more than 1000 points next day.   I've read 15 to 20 articles by pundits and portfolio-jockeys, none of whom mention what is driving this mad behaviour.  It is the Russian Terror War in Ukraine, of course. 

The US Federal Reserve is a sideshow.   A 50 basis point rate increase from a low starting point, is not too much to worry about.   But loss of a very large section of planet-Earth's economy, and it's buying power and farm-production (ie *food* production), is a huge issue.  Russia is offline due to sanctions, and Ukraine's output is not available in any sort of predictable way.  This is tragic and quite bad.

It's astonishing - I read pages of comments and public responses by folks who run money and manage financial enterprises in USA and globally, and almost no one really grasps what a very big deal, the loss of Russian and Ukraine as peaceful partners, really is. 

The disruptions that are to be caused by sanctions on Russian economic actions, and against actual economic goods themselves - combined with the loss of Ukraine food and industrial output and trade - are going to be large and significant.  We are all going to be hurt.

We believe that the USA and Canada stock markets are more accurately pricing in this ugly reality today, May 5th, 2022, than they were just a few days ago.  With the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 1063 points today, we look to have a real bear market underway, despite the buy-the-dip historical mentality.

A stock market and the much bigger bond market, both domestic and all-the-World, are beginning to realize that a  significant, non-trivial collapse of world trade and commercial activity cannot be consistant with rising commercial enterprise valuations.

The Russian Terror War in Ukraine is now doing great damage to Ukraine, and *will* begin to do great damage to Russia itself - and will also damage global prosperity and impair future global economic growth. 

Every day this war goes on, makes the World a poorer, and less stable place in which to live - and also to invest.    Putin has unleashed a tragic and absurd madness.    Russia will see it's economic level collapse along with Ukraine's, and the Western world will see degraded asset valuations, lower growth and/or outright GDP shrinkage, along with prices rising because of real product scarity, and significant supply-chain disruption.

We had hoped sanity would prevail, and peace could be engineered in Ukraine - but given the scale, extent and nature of the abuses that Russian forces have inflicted, this seems to be becoming less and less likely each day.

And when this real damage to global economics is combined with the beginning of a Federal Reserve (and UK and Europe) "tightening cycle" now provably underway, and the "Covid-19" lockdowns in China (and China's refusal to buy and deploy Pfizer and/or Moderna vaccines), a truly toxic cocktail is thus going to be served to investors everywhere.  

Madness.

[ May 3, 2022 ] - Frederich Merz Has Ba//s of Steel - And he travelled without security protection, to Kyiv, to meet with Ukraine President Zelenskyy, the other World Leader who also has Ba//s of Steel.   We understand the talks went well.  

(Bloomberg) -- German opposition leader Friedrich Merz had an hour-long meeting with Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy in Kyiv on Tuesday, amid a background of growing tension between the governments in Berlin and Kyiv. 

The talk went “exceptionally well”, Merz’s spokesman later wrote on Twitter.

--- 30 ---

Please - Germany and Ukraine - no disputes or bad feelings, OK?  Everyone in the World has to be on the same side in this fight.   Verstehst du mich?  Putin's insane "Zombie" forces must be crushed and destroyed.  The Future of Freedom for planet Earth, depends on this simple requirement.  Putins wahnsinnige „Zombie“-Kräfte müssen zermalmt und vernichtet werden. Die Zukunft der Freiheit für den Planeten Erde hängt von dieser einfachen Anforderung ab.

Безумные путинские «зомби» силы должны быть сокрушены и уничтожены. 
Будущее свободы для планеты Земля зависит от этого простого требования.

Germany; Let's get those Leopard tanks on the go, ok?  Please?  A few MiGs would also really make a difference.  (The "Ghost of Kyiv" will live forever in our hearts and minds and history books.)

[ May 1, 2022 ] - False-Flag Faked Blame - but the Plan was for Real Murder & Terror.

The Russian Gangsters working for Putin had rigged this plan to steal a "MANPAD" (a Javelin or a Stinger portable missile), and use it to shoot down a civilian airliner in Belarus or Russia itself.  The idea would be to blame Ukraine "terrorists", and then launch a bigger, (maybe nuclear) attack on Ukraine.

This is really pure-fake nasty "Hitler-style" evil.  This is a "False-Flag" attack, and is sometimes known as "pretexting" - ie. you create a fake "pretext" for doing some sort of ugly, awful criminal action, using your national military.   Hitler did this to start his invasion of Poland.   Stalin of Russia was his ally.    But the world knows about this trick now.   Everyone knows.

This is more dim-bulb evil being hatched by Putin's goon-squadrons of very-bad-people.

These Russian agents were going to kill an airliner full of their own Russian citizens.

Except Ukrainian Intelligence agents have been waiting for this sort of bullsh/t, and caught the little traitors, who were planning to pull off this vicious, cruel and **stupid-evil** action.

Link to the details, in Ukrainian:  (They even have the code-name of the Russian goon that was the controller of this mission..)

(We had the link to the Ukraine site URL in here, and we had to remove it, as putting in here, seems to have triggered a device to trash our IP# 's "reputation", so that the our machines can no longer access the Ukrainian site.  (see May 6th note above for more info.) )

English Translation:

Russian intelligence agents tried to steal a Stinger MANPADS to shoot down a plane carrying passengers in Russia or Belarus. This was 
reported by the SBU. Ukrainian law enforcement conducted a multi-stage special
operation to identify and neutralize enemy agents. Their group consisted of two
dual citizens and a recruited accomplice.
Their work was coordinated by Russian Alexander Tyuterev, who is a staff member
of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces and has the call sign "Marine".

[End translation]

[Ukrainian text: ]

Агенти російських спецслужб намагалися викрасти ПЗРК “Stinger”, щоб збити літак з пасажирами на території Росії чи Білорусі.

Про це повідомляє СБУ.

Українські правоохоронці провели багатоетапну спецоперацію, в ході якої виявили та нейтралізували ворожих агентів.

Їхня група складалася з двох осіб з подвійним громадянством та завербованого спільника. Координував їхню роботу росіянин Олександр Тютерев, який є кадровим співробітником головного управління генштабу збройних сил РФ та має позивний «Морпех».

[ end Ukrainian text ]

----

We at GEMESYS Ltd. offer this information, as public service.  This is some *really-bad-shit*.  This Russian spy-goon was basically planning to carry out a terrorist action that was the equiavalent of what Bin Laden did in the USA so as to give "pretext" for Putin to scale-up his Terror War in Ukraine.

This is very, very serious.  Putin is willing to *** Kill large numbers of his own Russian people *** just to continue to expand the insane warfare atrocity that is taking place in Ukraine.

This is just about as bad as it gets.   The entire World community needs to understand that this Putin character has to be removed, at whatever cost.

We are dealing with an absolutely evil person here, who is more dangerous than was Hitler.

It is better to stop this Putin person now, rather than wait until he tries to kill the whole world.

[Update: July 27, 2022] And, off we go. Like a herd of turtles, yes. But we are seeing a turn, which we suspect is ultimately sustainable. Strange times. War and Peace, shaken, not stirred...
[Update: July 21, 2022] DJIA is a good average to monitor. Not sure why, but it behaves. Dow Theory? With the poke thru the downtrend channel, first fib. retrace (.382) is at roughly 32,550. The second fib. retrace (.618) is at 34,250. We probably return to both of these. [xxx]

On Friday [July 15, 2022], Citigroup reported blowout earnings, and the recovery (again) in Bank Stocks in USA-land continues. By the end of this day, July 19, 2022, the DJIA closed up over 750 points. Another "bootleg-turn" for the better... :)

Our analysis suggests the well-provisioned financials will make out just fine, in the coming recession (or mini-depression..) We've seen this movie before.


The Central Bank guys still have these models that suggest that interest-rate rises are mostly deflationary. We are pretty sure this model has serious flaws, in an already-indebted economy. If folks have little debt, and the economy is suffering inflation because of too much growth in demand, then raising the cost of money can reduce growth, and reduce inflation. But if everyone is up to their eyeballs in debt (mortgages, revolving credit lines, car loans, VISA-card debt, etc.), then raising debt-service costs is just another cost on the books of businesses and consumers. There is a good chance attempts will be made to pass those cost increases thru to customers and employers, in terms of higher prices for product and greater wage demands.

The DJIA (we like this ancient, non-capitalization weighted index) is in a pretty clear down-trend - but looks like it could break thru the top line of the channel. (It did.)

Estimates are that over 11 trillion US dollars have been removed from equity markets, from the January 2022 peak levels. This means a wealth-effect comes into play. People are absolutely poorer. Not a lot, but enough to begin the process to change consumer behaviour.

We expect that further big interest-rate upshifts in this environment, will be both un-needed, and possibly dangerous, especially given the oil-price shock that is now rippling thru the global economy. In the Fall, we may get a rude and serious "Food Price Shock". Or not, depending on global harvests and War news.

We are positioned for the old DJIA to break out of this downtrend. There is little to be gained, by various Central Bank authorities, in hammering the equity markets and in increasing debt-serviceing costs any more rapidly, in our highly-leveraged economies.

There is also another factor at play, which we are looking at. Rising rates also means rising rate-of-return on capital. This phenomenon is often overlooked. Rising rates allow savers and careful investors to make rational, cash-generating investments. In a properly functioning economy, interest-rates *should* be comfortably positive (not negative in real terms), so a rising-rate environment, can and maybe should be, associated with sustainable economic growth, if the rates have been held artificially low, in order to goose the whole system. This just means that rising rates may not be as net-negative for economic growth as Central Bank and other models predict.

We learned in the 1970's that the "Phillips Curve" (the supposed trade-off relationship between growth+inflation and stability+unemployment levels) was pretty much bogus. Technological change, that drove the rate-of-return on capital, seemed to be the really big factor that made things happen. If we can keep the level of technical change improving, we can have good growth AND high-levels of employment. Which is kind of where we are now. So, we remain curiously positive, and expect a turn, around about now, or at least stabilization to be possible. We remain, in a Warren-Buffet-way, fully invested in equities, even though TINA has left the building.

(See the July 20th log-entry, for a link to a good paper on 1963-2020 Stock investment returns, compared to T-Bill returns, using USA data. Stock investment works - consistantly - better than investment in Government bonds (T-bills), roughly 4% better each year. Remember that US T-Bills in the 1970's were yielding double-digit returns. It's how the dentists got rich. )

The Germans have had a ***very good idea***. Combine the Howitzer, with a Panzer - and then ***lend-lease them to Ukraine!***. We concur. This unit - called the “Panzerhaubitzen 2000” - is exactly what the technical specialists require. Fast, long-range gun, and built to German quality. Est Est Est.

We sincerely hope the Ukraine forces can get 40 or 50 of these wonderful, modern "Panzers". Very, very good idea, Herr Scholz!

(Now, if we can just get Canada to offer Ukraine a few of those lovely Australian FA-18's we picked up last year on eBay.mil. Reports are they work real good - the Aussies kept them in very good shape, apparently. )

Page down to "weblog" section, see Apr. 29th, 2022 section, for BBC story on young female reporter killed in her Kyiv apartment by a Russian cruise-missile. Putin is truly pure evil. We must help Ukraine - all the world must help to defeat this evil monster, Vladimir Putin. This is job-1 for planet Earth. Sanctions are stupid. We should rain missiles down on where Putin is. Every nation should engage this important and necessary task. Really.

Vladimir, you know, we are going to get you. We are going to knock you off your toilet. And then, you are going to go to jail - or the graveyard. We will get you.

Владимир, знаешь, мы тебя достанем. Мы собираемся сбить тебя с твоего унитаза. А потом ты отправишься в тюрьму или на кладбище!

The U.N. (United Nations) is actually ENABLING Russian Murder Squadrons in Ukraine. We need to FIX the UN. It is Badly Broken.

We have some *very* effective military hardware. A squadron of F-18's, equipped with latest LRASMs could erase the Russian "Black Sea" fleet in 15 minutes. And with current anti-aircraft missiles, we could clear Ukraine skys of Russian bombers and other murder-jets, in 10 minutes.

We could get all the key work done in half-an-hour before breakfast, and still have time for some coffee and toast.

If we allow Ukraine to be destroyed and enslaved by Russian Death-Squads, Moscow will eventually be burnt to the ground, and we will have World War Three.

Helping Ukraine repel and remove Russian Terrorists now, is the better, lower-risk option.

Really. (Click on image to enlarge it. See the Apr. 23rd PM note for the "King Arthur" toolset...)

This is an article, that was published in the Wall Street Journal Apr. 21, 2022, and was written by the Defense Minister of the Government of Ukraine.  It is behind a *paywall* on the WSJ, so I reprint it here, as it is of critical importance and is in the public interest.

----

The U.N. Is an Enabler of Russian War Crimes

A permanent member of the Security Council invaded Ukraine. The free world needs to fight back.

April 21, 2022 1:07 pm Eastern Standard Time
 
Kyiv, Ukraine

The world was horrified by the mass killing of innocent civilians in Bucha. Russian soldiers violated all existing rules and laws of war, raping children and torturing women and men, shooting them execution style. Similar crimes were committed in Kharkiv, Mariupol, Chernihiv and in Kramatorsk, where Russian forces fired a Tochka-U ballistic missile on a railway station filled with 4,000 civilians, mostly women and children. 

Among the casualties of Russia’s war on Ukraine has been the postwar system of global order and security. Russia has done everything that the international security institutions were created to prevent.

How can the United Nations Security Council, on which Moscow has a permanent seat, live up to its mission to maintain peace? What kind of security and cooperation is possible on the Continent when one participating state of the Organization for Cooperation and Security in Europe has attacked another and killed thousands of civilians? These organizations have failed.

Like the League of Nations before them, they must be replaced by a new and more effective set of international institutions capable of serving the interests of all countries, not only those of the great powers.

The architecture of this new system should be based on Ukraine’s experience. In 1994 we gave up the world’s third-largest nuclear arsenal, hoping that the signatures of world leaders on a document meant something. But in April 2008, Germany and France blocked Ukraine’s accession to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. The Kremlin got the message. In August 2008 Russia invaded Georgia and the world turned a blind eye.

In 2014 Russia attacked Ukraine and the world decided not to intervene.  Now Russian bombs are erasing our cities from the earth and the world has been unable to stop it.

All this could have been prevented.  Had the West imposed preventive sanctions on Russia and provided Kyiv with a sufficient number of defensive weapons—primarily air and missile defense systems—tens of thousands of Ukrainians would still be alive today.

The Western response to the invasion has been too slow.

As President Volodymyr Zelensky has said, the global response to a crisis of this sort should be immediate, within 24 hours, not after weeks or months. Any aggressor must face irreversible punishment through a mechanism of preventive measures—so called deferred sanctions that can be approved in peacetime and take effect automatically.

Russia’s aggression against Ukraine has created almost four million refugees. We are on the brink of a global food crisis that could destabilize Africa and the Middle East. Until Russia is stopped, the crisis will only grow, pulling in neighbors and contributing to the collapse of economies.

We always hear the echoes of the past in the present.  I’ve never liked traitors or cockroaches. Even when I was a child, both filled me with disgust.  Eventually I came to terms with cockroaches and no longer take offense at their existence, but my feelings for traitors haven’t changed.  This is the core of who I am, and of many people around me these days. You can’t go back on your word. You can’t run when your country needs you. You can’t betray your friends.

I make dozens of calls every day, communicating with friends and colleagues from different countries. I really want to believe that everyone I speak with has values that they won’t betray under any circumstances.  If you consider friendship one of those values, and you consider yourself a friend of Ukraine, please realize that time is running out. We need your help, and we need it now.

Primarily we need heavy weapons to defend and liberate Russian-occupied territories.  I know that these weapons can be sourced quickly from different countries.  All that’s needed is the will to do so.  If you give us these weapons, you will show the world that you are not afraid to confront evil.  We also need a total global embargo on Russian oil and gas.  We need real sanctions against Russia’s banking system and trade.

If you give us all this, Russian invaders will be gone from Ukraine in a few months. If you don’t, the war will drag on, and the terrorist state of the Russian Federation will destroy the reputations of global leaders and encourage other rogues to test their strength. 

The flames of the war can spread to other countries at any moment because Vladimir Putin won’t stop in Ukraine.

A Ukrainian victory is the only outcome that will force Russia to rethink its strategy of aggression. We can do it.  We have already proved our bravery.  We just need the tools.  Once the job is done we can get down to the important business of building a new world security architecture free from the structural defects of the past.

Mr. Reznikov is Ukraine’s defense minister.

-------------------

We here at GEMESYS Ltd. are in complete agreement with Mr. Reznikov.

We urge our Leaders and the other Leaders, Governments and Civilian+Military entities around the world the HEED THIS CRITICAL MESSAGE.  Our careful study and analysis of historical events suggests that Mr. Reznikov's message is of maximum importance, is accurate, and must be acted upon.

Ukraine needs explicit military help - and it needs LARGE, POWERFUL, GAME-CHANGING WEAPONS. 

The current economic sanctions against Russia are a joke.   Western governments are going after rich Russian businessmen - stealing their property - as if this can or will have any impact at all on the Russian Terror War Putin is waging in Ukraine.  

Lets be clear:   Russia is acting ILLEGALLY.   They are doing mass-murder and terrorism.

The United Nations is BROKEN.

It has completely and amazingly failed here - and it should be ended and rebuilt.

We can fix these problems now, without having World War Three. We do this by arming Ukraine in a very big way, and by offering them UN-sanctioned military assistance now, to remove the Russian invading forces.

Or, we can dither and talk and play politics and mumble-and-bumble about and make half-hearted gestures that play to home audiences, and then have World War Three, when Russia attacks a NATO country - and watch as Russia and part of our world is destroyed.

Either way, Russian aggression will be addressed, and the UN will be dismantled and then repaired, with a nuclear-armed standing army at it's disposal, and a working democratic structure that will ensure the territorial integrity of nation-state borders. 

Arming - and actively assisting - Ukraine NOW, is a vastly better choice here.

This illegal Russian exercise in mass-murder, and mass-theft will be addressed and Russia's ability to act in this manner will be ended - one way or another.   And the UN will be repaired - one way, or a another.   We are certain these two outcomes will take place in the future.

We simply have a choice now - which outcome we will select:  Option 1 - help Ukraine defeat the Russian invasion, and begin the process of fixing the broken, failed UN, or,

Option 2 - where we let things slide along, until full-on war with Russia becomes a certainty, and we (NATO) have to gear up to fight a very big and world-wrecking war with the Russian forces of extreme evil.  (We know how they act, and what sort of things they do.  Extreme evil, really.) 

Option 2 includes massive, all-out war with Russia.  It may or may not involve nuclear weapons.  But it matters not, if your city is destroyed by a nuclear blast or a mass firebombing campaign, like was done to Tokyo.  Or the saturation-bombing that Berlin endured.  Or the carpet-bombing that has destroyed Mariupol, Ukraine's formerly beautiful coastal city.   Once the bombing was over, Hiroshima and Tokyo did not look much different.  Both were fully destroyed.  And Mariupol today, looks much like Berlin in 1945.   Nuclear weapon use is actually a non-issue.  If your city is destroyed and *everything* is burnt to the ground, and all the people are killed - does it really make any difference what kind of weapons were used to accomplish this horror?

We should give Ukraine ANY KIND OF ARMS AND WEAPONS THEY REQUEST and HELP THEM FIX THIS UGLY PROBLEM NOW, WHEN IT CAN BE FIXED AT THIS EARLY STAGE, before it becomes a full World War. 

We really are certain of the wisdom and necessity of this course of action.

Mr. Reznikov is most correct.

The Putin Terror War in Ukraine is the Blackest of all the "Black Swans" we have ever seen. It is insane, cruel and will damage everyone, everywhere, for no gain to anyone.

It shows the great wisdom of having term limits on all political leaders. Vladimir Putin provides a textbook example of an insane megalomaniac. And his actions show what happens when cruelty and madness infect the people at the top. We must correct this.

A Box of Stuff for the Good Guys. This is part of donations from the "Come Back Alive" Foundation, which donates supplies and materiel for Ukrainian soldiers fighting the Russian invaders of their homeland.

And a good homeland - like a good home - often has cat. Here we see Captain Malenkiy performing an inspection.

Please: Weapons - big guns, tanks and aircraft - for Ukraine NOW.

ARM UKRAINE NOW! To defend Freedom.

We sent them some ammunition and small arms. Now, they need the big stuff. Let's get it done!

English Language Message Direct from President Zelenskiy of Ukraine

This was released on Twitter this AM.  Please share, contact your member of Parliament or Congress.  We MUST do this.

https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1514244427476344838

On Youtube...

https://youtu.be/bIwLz-CNVuI

 

It is very important that we get this done.  Germany has a bunch of tanks, and Canada has some aircraft (we bought those used Australian F-18's, right?), and USA has every damn weapon system there is.   We need to get this heavy hardware into Ukraine - NOW.

Nothing else matters.

To understand the technical nature of Putin's Terrorist strategy, read this detailed BBC report:

(It is carefully researched, well documented, and difficult to read.  It's called "Collecting the Dead in Bucha".)

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61085810

The Putin Terror War against Ukraine is designed to inflict maximum pain and psychological harm on the Ukrainian people, as a Nation.   This is Terrorism as an advanced science.   It is designed - using carefully crafted methodology of horror - to destroy human feeling.

Putin's Regime in Moscow must be destroyed, at any cost.  

You have to go back into ancient history, to find evil like this.  Honestly - the European Nazi's of the mid-20th century were very bad - but they were not this kind of focused-evil bad.  They wanted to consolidate and control - not just degrade, hurt and destroy national identity.

It is important that the Forces of Freedom - really all of global humanity - join together to destroy - to absolutely and completely erase - Vladimir Putin and his sadistic, evil henchmen.

This requirement transcends all politics and nationality.

The Russian Terror War in Ukraine Changes Everything

The Russian State Lie Squads, and Putin himself claim the Bucha Atrocities are fake, or were done after Ukraine recaptured Bucha. This is a proven lie - the British Defense Intelligence Satellite photos - from March 21st - prove the Russians did the killing - just as hundreds of eye-witness accounts from Bucha indicate.

The key takeaway here, is that nothing Russian State operatives say now, can be trusted to be truthful. This makes a sinister scenario.

Zelenskiy, the Ukraine president, is correct. The United Nations is a failed institution, as it now is being used to protect the interests of a rogue Nation-State of sadistic killers.

The Terror War that Vladimir Putin's fascist military killers of Russia have unleashed on Ukraine changes everything.   The atrocities being carried out in Ukraine by Russian invaders is a terrorist exercise similar to what ISIS did in Syria.  The World military forces must assist the Ukraine military.

We have no choice, but to be at War with Russia.  Putin must be arrested, and put on trial for mass murder.  He is evil - a liar and a sociopath operating at the highest level of crafted deception. 

Youtube and most other social-media, and all independent news services are now banned in Russia, as of April 5th, 2022.   Our little website might not be blocked.   So, we post truth of what is happening in Ukraine here, so maybe we can be a tiny agent of corrective change.

The Western World - Europe especially - must assist Ukraine, and help them repel this astonishing evil invasion that Russia is doing.   Most Russians have been electronically blinded, and are not even aware what is taking place in areas in the north, around Kyiv and in the south, where Mariupol is being systematically destroyed by constant bombing.  

This horror and madness that Russia is doing, will echo forward now, for the next 100 years, and will poison our World, unless we all act to stop it now.

World Gone Mad - A Military Strategy

What is going on in Mariupol is an organized crime by Russian military, on the scale of what Adolf Hitler's military did to the Jews of Europe.

The dead civilians who have been murdered by Russian bombing, number now over 5,000, instead of 5 million. The tally of innocent people murdered by Putin is still less than Hitler's score - but we are only at the beginning. Once the nuclear bombs are used - probably against Russia - then we expect the Putin score to exceed Hitler's.

The World cannot ignore this insane nightmare. Most of beautiful Mariupol is in ruins. This atrocity did not need to happen. It has happened because we have weak, ineffective leaders, and a broken and worthless United Nations.

The current Putin Gangster Group controlling Russia, must be removed and ended by any means possible.

To delay further, will only cost more lives later. This exercise in mass-murder cannot be allowed to stand. It is not warfare, it is just terrorism and mass-murder by forces of pure, extreme evil.

None of this sadistic, murderous idiocy needed to happen. Full on war with Russia is now something that cannot be avoided, no matter what Western leaders say. We should strike them now, and strike them hard, and plan to buy some warm overcoats and iodine pills.

[ May 3, 2022 ] - America & the Western World Need to Focus Better - The Democrats are trying to do the right thing, with arms shipments to Ukraine for it's self-defense against insane Russian murder-squadrons of "Zombies" out to kill "Nazis".   Good for Ukraine.  They need to win, and win big.  Russian forces are delusional, and Putin is an old fashioned evil tyrant who needs to be dealt with.

But the Democrats of USA need to get their act together, and stop acting like they are also insane.  Old nutjobs like Bernie Sanders should be sent off to Florida Nursing Homes or somewhere safe, where he cannot make the Democratic platform look like a ragbag of insane, mouth-drooling retarded idiocy.   Bernie is *demanding* that the Democrats in Washington pass legislation making it a legal-right for women to kill their babies.

Bernie - it's a shame that your own mother did not scrape you out of her inner place.   JHC, what a nutbar crazy world!

What kind of sick-crazy madness is driving the Democrats in USA?   I seriously think that much of the Democrats policy platform in USA-land, might be the result of a carefully-crafted exercise in mass political destabilization.    I honestly do not know who or what is behind this madness - but to have some gray-haired goofball who gets big airplay, and is a sure to be put into the news (like a Senator Bernie Sanders, for example) **demand** that USA Democats pass legislation allowing women the legal right to murder the children they are carrying inside themselves, is complete madness.

What sort of sane person, would want to vote for a political party that essentially encourages women to kill their own children?

The nonsense & foolish talk by unwise, badly educated "Democrat" law-makers in the USA is deeply disturbing and dangerous.  Most of the "Squad" do not even understand how their own government and legal systems are designed to operate.  If you want to learn and be enlightened, read this most excellent article - which does not even offer an opinion on 'Roe vs. Wade" - but it is the key to what the Supreme Court of the USA is doing:

https://greenwald.substack.com/p/the-irrational-misguided-discourse?s=r

We are not Catholics, and are not driven by any superstitious or religious impulses.  But all creatures - even lesser mammals, fish, birds and even some insects - typically ensure that their offspring get born, and obtain quality care.  This is just basic, rational biological necessity.

What the USA Democrat Party is doing - having these strident geriatric loons and arse-poking gayboys driving their "weird-sex and kill-the-unborn-children" political agenda, is just way, way beyond silly and bad.   "Where is this madness coming from?", we wonder.

The Republicans will be able to run *anyone* who is sane, basically *anywhere*, and just look semi-rational, and they will eventually be able to takeover the entire political process.  But this requires them to also be rational and sane, and ... this might not actually be possible.

It really looks as if some background dark-force or group of clever/evil social-programmers, are trying to destroy USA.   Seriously, I am not making a silly "birds are not real" conspiracy-theory argument here.  There is just too much insane, way-over-the-top idiotic madness driving politics in USA now.    All this woke-faggot weird shit is like nasty political porn.  Just  google or duckduckgo the "state of the art" of modern porn, and it is not at all about good old plain fun-fucking anymore - it is a horrorshow of crazy weirdness, like a madhouse of some German nightmare, or a Bosch painting of Hell.   (Seriously, go look.  Modern internet porn is not even erotic. But it mirrors the world-of-politics pretty closely, which is curious and disturbing...)

The world has always had extreme crazy-shit, just below the surface. 

But in USA-land, this pure crazy shit is actually *driving* the Democrat Party now, and setting their political platform.  Really, it honestly is.

Regardless of your political or religious beliefs, it probably should be illegal for a pregnant female to kill her unborn child, just because she wants to.

There should probably not be any ***legal right*** to getting an abortion.

Why not make **suicide** a legal right?  That at least makes sense.  But as for killing your unborn child, that is clearly not a decision that a pregnant female should have on her own.  At least let the pregnant woman, the doctor, the father, and anyone else who is a family-member, at least have input into the decision to abort a living foetus. 

The USA Supreme Court is probably right to strike down the "Roe vs. Wade" idea, that women can have sole authority over the decision to kill their own children.  

Bernie Sanders should retire, and go golfing with Donald Trump down in Florida.   He should be pushed off the political stage.   His time is over, as he sounds clearly insane, and is doing terrible damage to both the Democratic Party, and the USA as a nation.

Bloody hell, an analyst has to go back to 6th-century Justinian and Theodora  (a tyrant-boss and a whore-dancer-showgirl who became a princess-queen by marrying the boss) who together ruled Byzantium (year 521 to 548) - the weird (Eastern) side of the collapsing Roman Empire - to find this sort of foolish-awful political hellhole of internal mud-fighting, failed warfare efforts, sex-scandals and stupid, bad, self-destructive action.   (Hint:  Read Procopius and his "Secret History.")

It is now time for some sanity to come back into the modern political view-frame. 

We need to wise up, and get ready to fight the Third World War.   (Which we hope can be avoided - but given the pure-evil of the Russian actions, we suspect it has already begun.  Really and honestly.  We will have to fight, defeat, and repair the Russian Federation.  This will have to take place, even if it means we have to risk full nuclear war.    The silly squabbles of the Western World must end now, and we all must focus our efforts much, much more better.  )

[ May 1st, 2022 ] - Olga of Kyiv & No Future for Kids of Russia- Olga - Ruled in Kyiv, around, 900 AD.  We are deep in an analytic-historical study.  It began with Hannibal Barca of Carthage (considered by many researchers to the be greatest military strategist and General of all time), and we detoured to a history of Babylonian military history, and have come thru a horror-show of weaponry and tactics, up to Soviet weapons technology of the late 1980's.  It is a long strange trip, to say the least.   We found Olga of Kyiv, and her defeat of invading Russian barbarians from the "North" particularly interesting.   Nothing in history really changes - except the technology, which gets more nasty as the epoch's flow.

We now also understand why Xi of China is being so insane about the national demands for "Covid Zero" style lockdowns.  We suspect that street-wise fellow has direct knowledge of *exactly* what Covid-19 virus is, how it was designed, how it was manufactured, and how is explicitly programmed to evolve.  (We have observed detailed research on how the Omicron variants are morphing at a curiously rapid evolutionary pace.  More on this later..)

In Ukraine, Putin is going "full Hitler", and a newspaper that was formatted and sent for printing on April 30th, and is dated May 2nd (tomorrow!), has all this "news" in it, detailing fake terrorist attacks, which require poor little Moldova to "mobilize".  It is complete, textbook example of shit-fake "false-flag" pretexting nonsense, but it is what we can now expect from the low-wattage bulbs at the FSB.  (the successor org. to the KGB - these are the boys that put Novochok neural-poison into Navalny's undershorts.   FFS, what a world...)

This site is in cyrillic Ukrainian, but you can highlight text, and run it thru Google translate, and get good English out.  It is fascinating.  Putin's goons are printing two-day forward newspapers, with pure absolutely fake news and the Ukraine Intelligence folks monitor this garbage, which will be used as pretext for more Russian military-gangster activity.

https://mil.in.ua/uk/news/rosiyany-gotuyut-nevyznane-prydnistrov-ya-do-vijny-gur-mo/

This nonsense is beyond-the-pale awful and tragic-comically stupid.  But what is so interesting, is that it is good-enough for Russian people.   It is not that Russians are stupid - it is that they are mostly all seething with anger, and are happy to do *anything* to focus that anger.

It makes us think that perhaps the entire Ukrainian murder-madness, is a cynical, awful project to remove an entire demographic cohort of Russian youth.  "Feed them to the cannons", (as the Brits used to say...)  and so reduce to zero any chance of them taking to the streets of Moscow to demand Putin's head.   Putin is preventing a violent overthrow of his regime by the angry, violent kids, who know they have no future at all, in Putin's Russia.  

So, Putin arranges for them all to be killed.

[ Apr. 29, 2022 ] - Panzers for Ukraine!  - The Germans have modern Panzers.  And Ukraine needs *many*.  So the Germans are discussing lend-leasing a bunch of "Panzer-Howitzers" to Ukraine, to help the Ukrainians in their desperate hour.  We think this is a *very good idea*.  Congratuations to German leader, Herr Scholz.  We hope this good plan can be carried out quickly.  Russian military forces need to be removed from Ukraine.   No other outcome is acceptable or in any way correct. 

The translation of the text on the photo (which is in the Ukrainian language), is as follows:

--- (translation of Ukrainian text, on photo of PZN 2000)

  "We are negotiating with various partners to provide effective support to Ukraine - also in the field of artillery. There are various options that are currently being considered, "  said a spokeswoman for the German Defense Ministry.

--- (end translated text)

Germany once used its military to do bad things.  Now, it can use it's military to do very good things - like defend democracy and human freedom.   The world changes.  This is good.

It's time for Russia to change.  Nothing like a big military defeat to make a country re-think exactly what it's place in the world should be.   We should all help Russians gain this necessary educational benefit.  They need to remove Putin, restore sanity and free-speech to their nation, and become wise and honest people again.  This current insane murder-madness must stop.

Here is another BBC story, about a murdered female journalist - killed in her Kyiv home:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61274997

Putin is killing our women.  This is very human-basic.  We must end this murderer now.

[ Apr. 25, 2022 ] - King Arthur's Tools - Part Le Deux... - I had not realized how much of this is public.   This little marketing clip, is from back in 2016.  It shows how the existing ship-board Navy guns can (and have been) upgraded with extreme precision, very long range, dynamic vectoring "rounds".   This tech is *very* cool - at distances around 40 to 50 klicks away, you can eliminate a murder-squadron of killers in rapidly-moving kill-vehicles - tanks, BMRs, trucks, or even stolen cars (a typical Russian vehicle of choice.)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TY6g-SfbMVM

(Don't ya just love the imaged video clip?  Destroying a *boat* in a desert? )   Key point here, is that the programmed "air-burst" technology, is even more effective against a truck-load of goons.

The Amazing Stupidity of Switzerland

We read that the Swiss are unwilling to supply RheinMetall (the suppliers of Marder tanks), with the needed artillery rounds - because fucking Switzerland has a *law* that prevents them from transferring military technology to any country involved in combat.  

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/swiss-veto-german-request-re-export-ammunition-ukraine-paper-2022-04-24/

Is it possible to fukcing imagine anything more fucking stupid?

This is exactly the same as a pharmaceutical company being unwilling to provide medicine to sick people, or a nation-state government making it illegal for Doctors to help soldiers who are wounded in battle.    It is perfect, insane madness.

Simple Solution to Swiss Stupidity:

This fuck-stupid situation has a real simple solution:  1): Germany immediately passes a law, indicating that export-permits from other States are not required, in emergency situations, and declares the Ukraine invasion by Russia as an "emergency situation".   (In Canada or England, we would use an "Order In Council", so you don't have to waste time chit-chatting in the legislature.)  Problem solved.  Rheinmetall already has the projectile rounds - they can then just ship once German law allows this, and the Swiss can go fuck themselves.  And the desperate Ukrainians can have a better chance at defending themselves from the advancing forces of pure evil.

And thus 2):  Dump the shit-for-brains Swiss as suppliers if anything military at all.  Or at least in future have each contract designate: "We have FULL AUTHORTY - as Buyers - to do ANYTHING WE WISH with your product once we own it."  If the Swiss disagree, tell them to fuck off.    Ideally, Swiss product should not be used, if there are any product restrictions.    Consider using suppliers in Poland to make the needed ammunition, or fabricate it within Germany.    The Polish firm FB Radom might be a choice, which could consider tooling up for this project.   Polish weaponry is as good as Swiss, and the Polish are not as stupid as the Swiss are being.

But the idiocy of Swiss law, that prevents shipment of military equipment and supplies and materiel to places where a military emergency exists, and it is desperately needed right now is absolutely beyond the pale stupid.   

It is curious how this kind of insane, stupid *sh/t* actually gets into the world.   One would expect this kind of law to be laughed at, and hooted off the public stage, when some fuckwit suggests it.   Strange and so very curious that it was not...

[ Apr. 24, 2022 ] - King Arthur's Tools - Canada is providing Ukraine with some 155 mm vectoring artillery.   Very cool stuff, and we can talk about, because it's public.  Raytheon is a very cool company.

https://youtu.be/E6ukz5jhXdY

Accurate.  As my public school teachers used to say:  "Neatness counts."  ( I'm a messy writer.)

[ Apr. 23, 2022 ] - Arriving in Las Vegas - Spoke at length with an old friend in USA, who moved to Nevada.   Californistan got too crazy for him, and he and is wife built a house in Vegas.   It is nice, warm in the winter, and hot in the summer.   They come North, in the summer.   Nevada is an interesting State.  You can go to the range, and play with an AK-47, an run it on full-auto (which gets expensive, as anyone with a self-funded full-auto metal-thrower knows...).   Another friend, had a chat with him, he just returned from somewhere east of Eastern Europe.   They rescued a friend, who needed medical treatment.   Tough times for good people.  Certainly proves we are on our own now.

Evil prospers and does well, and good people fail, suffer and die.   Truly, I belive there is nothing more insane than religion.   But little can be done about this kind of madness.  People seem to need to believe weird shit that is provably wrong.  Perhaps the pain is too great.

Hard to grasp why this needs to be the case, isn't it. 

[ Apr. 22, 2022 ] - Mrs. Rotter's Lullabye - "I gave up my seat at the bar, and I headed for the door..."   Clang. "We shout out these songs, to the clang of electric guitars...."    ( I liked "Counting Crows" a lot.  But modern economics and warfare are making me crazy, I fear...)

Fack... I am reading about "Modern Monetary Theory", some of the most bone-stupid nonsense since Marxism.  MMT says that government fiscal deficits don't matter, and that you can pump up the money supply, no problem, without getting inflation.  Ok, sure.  Listen - MMT is like... (how to describe it?)  Try this:  It falls into the class of algorithms that work really great, until, suddenly, they do not work at all.

Like this: You find a bunch of dynamite, and nice long fuses.  Assume everyone knows what this stuff is.  You stick a blasting cap, and a nice long fuse, into your stick of dynamite, and you drive down the road, waving it around.  Everyone who sees you, gets out of the way, and moves in the opposite direction.  You think:  "Fuck! This is great!  I have discovered the secret to traffic problems.  I can drive around, no traffic!  It's great! "   And for a while it works really good.  You wave your lit stick of burning-fuse dynamite at everyone, and they see it, and move away from you so very fast. You are wildly successful, driving around, getting quick service at the store, going into the bank, where they give you money to leave right away, and so on.   Wow, what a great algorithm!  You think you are a genius.   (Do you recognize this phenomenon???)

But eventually, your fuse is burning down, and you pay it no mind. 

In this algorithmic process, everything works really, really good for you, until the very moment when it does not work well at all.

This is the very ESSENCE of MMT.   Fuck, you stupid government & central-bank clowns, try to understand this.  The process you are playing with is VERY NON-LINEAR.   Ka-Booom.

Just like this fucknig goon-psycho Putin, who is determined to destroy the world, to lengthen the view of his soft penis and sagging chest.   It is a time of madness, magnified to absurd extremes, like they talked about in the other times of great, extreme transitions.   Freud told us, and so did Jung.  So did Procopius.  We are screwed, I fear.   If we use the really modern high-tech stuff, then the genie will be out of the bottle, and everyone will know what is possible.  So we have to let bad things go...  This feels so wrong.

I once went to Colorado.  Colorado Springs, actually.  Met a girl there, and we rented a car, and drove away and had an adventure.  Airstream trailers, in the southern desert...  She was a very fine girl.  I really like fine girls.   It was maybe the best time I had in my whole life.  Funny, how we remember these curious things, when deep in a pile of work, and it all looks terminal...    "The days grow short, when you reach September..."   --- "To live's to fly - all low and high."  Thanx, TVZ.  (Like Lucky's speech in "Waiting for Godot"...).   Never forgotten you, Theresa.  You were pure magic joy.  A thousand years from now, someone finds this archive:  "Listen!  We lived!  And it was good!"

A Really Beautiful Kill:

This is a really fucking sweet kill - just a perfect thing of beauty.  Here is a Russian murder tank, being taken out at over FOUR klicks away - just a lovely kill, at a distance that almost exceeds what is possible - except it was possible, because it got done.  Details are not provided, to protect the defenders of Ukraine:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hEVUqglE9r8

This was over 4 km away from launch, so it shows that Russian murder-monkeys and their murder-wagons, are not safe anywhere in Ukraine.  You drive into Ukraine with a kill-vehicle, you *will* die, eventually.  It might not happen right away, but many, many good people, all around the world, are working hard to make sure it *will* happen at some point.

[ Apr. 21, 2022 ] - Madness Takes Control - Yes, everything really is broken.  People are acting crazy.    It is very, very strange.   What ever has happened to our collective ability in the Western World, to get stuff done? 

It seems to have been wrecked by the Left.   We maybe need to do something about this. 

We have Trudeau in Canada, and Biden in the USA, and between the two of them, they seem to want to destroy all this sensible stuff that we had, that actually worked pretty good.  Biden cancelled critical pipeline projects, Trudeau and the B.C. Lefties have made it impossible to build pipelines and terminals to export liquified natural gas, which for our economy and resources, and the demand in Asia (and now Europe), is something we *really* should be doing, and doing at scale.   But we just cannot seem to get anything done, anymore.

It is silly here, and it is worse in the USA.  In the USA, it is becoming insane - literally *millions* of Covid-infected, poor-people & criminals are flooding across the southern US "sort-of-border", and they go to San Francisco and other big cities, where they occupy (with AK-47's) the city.  This happens while "woke" Leftists want to "defund the Police" and claim that the honest, property-owning gun-owners are "white racists" and are really the big problem.  The Democrats in the USA are buying into this stupid "woke" bullshit, teaching gay-life in public schools, and then act surprised when they discover this crazy nonsense is destroying their thinking and their party.  The Hard-Left in the USA is truly insane.

Biden cancels a critical pipeline project that would have helped USA and Canada work together to have energy self-sufficiency, and shuts down leases on Federal land, that could be used to find and harvest the oil that is there.   The whole "Green-Nazi" climate-change fake crisis is used to justify stupid-silly and self-destructive economics which supports and emboldens Russian aggression and Green-Nazi economic de-stabilization.   The fucking gasoline price in Canada is almost two dollars a litre!  And diesel fuel is even more.  This is just silly.  This is a basic input, and will explode our production costs everywhere.   We are fucking-up our own economics, raising taxes on fuel and taking extreme economic action, for fake "climate-change" global-warming bullshit that is nothing compared to the true risk that Putin's Russia represents.

We just had a very standard-average very cold winter, and Spring is STILL coming the same way and at the same time it always has.  Except now, the petrol is twice the fucking price it needs to be, because of bogus "Climate Change" taxes and bad government policy choices.   This is fucking bullshit.   And it is bad economics.

This guy in this note says it clearly:  America is becoming a distopian "La-La Land", and the evidence seems to support him:

https://amgreatness.com/2022/04/20/how-america-became-la-la-land/

There is no reason we - the entire Western World - could not oppose Putin's military horrorshow with a firm hand - and some big warships and big action using high-tech weapons.   We just say: "Guy, your actions are illegal.  Have your army exit Ukraine, or we will offer direct assistance to the Ukraine Government, to destroy your invading army.  Ok?  Clear?  And if you launch or use any nuclear weapons, we will also.  Do not do it."

And then, we just create a standard "Highway of Death" for Russian murder forces inside Ukraine.  The Russian invaders are in Ukraine illegally.  Our actions would not be a war, just a basic "UN-Authorized Police Force" effort, doing a necessary job.   No reason why we could not do this.

But we strangely cannot.  The fuck-stupid Lefty children have created this fake-shit-idea that we cannot take action, for various fake-shit reasons that are made up to allow murder-monkey horror-shit to happen to the Ukrainians.  And this is just so fucking wrong, it is insane. 

The world seems now to be divided between the stupid and the cruel.  

We must correct this.  This governance model is just NFG (No Fucking Good).

[ Apr. 20, 2022 ] - Horror Fiction - We are living in a "Black Swan" - the very blackest we have seen.   We are offside, but are electing to hold our positons, due to the inflation scenario.  Stocks are not a great inflation hedge, but they are not bad, and our dividend streams and other revenue is holding up well.  And our real-estate holdings are going vertical-ballistic.  It is a very, very strange time.  We were well tee-ed up for this sort of madness, because I have studied history.   This insane war shit, seems to be a built-in characteristic of human society.  Not sure why.  Maybe it is the "reptile brain" taking charge, in guys like Putin.  Had a long discussion yesterday with a medical guy, about the nature of "Long Covid" and how it can do neural damage.  We believe that Putin has suffered neural degradation or damage - but not enough that it is always obvious.  

In my mind's eye, I see Putin as "Captain Queeg" -  doing that scene from the "Caine Mutiny", where Bogart goes on about disloyal officers, the stolen strawberries and the key to the food locker.   Watch this scene - it is Putin, seriously:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KekChFdIe00

[ Apr. 18, 2022 ] - Putin Kills Cities, Kills Russians, and Kills His Navy / Путін вбиває міста, вбиває росіян і вбиває свій флот! -

Знищення «Москви» є прямим результатом Володимира Путіна та його божевільної війни.

Образи «Москви» перед її затопленням трагічні. Але вона була розміщена в центрі, щоб запропонувати радіолокаційне покриття південного прибережного регіону України, і вона допомагала вбивати українські міста та мирних жителів. Вона здійснила перехід від військового корабля до знаряддя терору та масового вбивства невинних, і тому вона заслужила свою долю.

Ми щиро сподіваємося, що росіяни незабаром зможуть усунути Володимира Путіна. Корабель під назвою «Москва» знищено. Ми щиро сподіваємося, що Путіна вдасться усунути, а його терористична війна закінчиться до того, як сама Москва спіткає подібну долю. Чесно кажучи, ця путінська людина не має уявлення про страшні, руйнівні сили, які він вивільняє. Він думає, що він сильний, а західні нації слабкі та дурні. Це просто неправда. Це більше брехня Путіна.

Путін знову робить Росію синонімом ЗЛА в нашому світі.

Це просто нерозумно, неправильно і сумно. Путін стоїть на купі черепів.

Але історія показує, що це на диво поширений результат. Тому ми всі повинні вжити заходів і підготуватися до боротьби з цим жахливим злом.

----

The destruction of the "Moskva" is directly the result of Valdimir Putin and his insane war. 

The images of the "Moskva" before she sunk, are tragic.  But she was positioned in a central location, to offer radar-coverage of the southern littoral region of Ukraine, and she was helping to kill Ukrainian cities and civilians.  She made the transition from warship, to an instrument of terror and mass-murder of innocents, and so she deserved her fate.

We truly hope the Russians can remove Vladimir Putin soon.  The ship named "Moskva" has been destroyed.  We truly hope that Putin can be removed, and his Terror War ended, before the city of Moskva itself meets a similar fate.  Honestly, this Putin person has no idea of the terrible, destructive forces that he is unleashing.  He thinks he is strong, and that Western Nations are weak and foolish.  This is simply not true.   It is more Putin Lies.   

He will destroy Russia, if he is not removed.  His war against Ukraine is idiotic madness - like a man attacking his own left hand.  NATO was becoming a bureaucratic non-entity, and there were plans in North America to make Europe pay for it's own defense needs.  NATO was dying.

But now, Putin has made NATO into a new force, and the horrors that we are all seeing in Ukraine, means that POWERFUL political forces have been mobilized, to ensure that defense spending increases and military preparedness will be massively enhanced.  NATO is needed and will get all the money it wants, now.

War is now upon us. 

We see what it looks like.

And we see what happens if we do not oppose EVIL.

Putin is making Russia the synonym for EVIL again, in our world.

This is simply foolish, wrong, and sad.   Putin stands on a pile of skulls.  

But history shows it to be a curiously common outcome.   So we all must take action, and get ready to deal with this terrible evil.

[ Apr. 15, 2022 ] - Once Upon a Time, The Good Guys Knew How to End War Tyrants - Here is a link to an Archived Documentary Film - but made like an action movie - by both the British Government Ministry of Information and the Hollywood Film industry - in 1944, while the Second World War was still raging.   When the fascist shit really hit the fan, and it looked like half the world could fall into an ugly pit of tyrannical hell, the FREE DEMOCRATIC NATIONS of the planet, got their shit together, and began the work together to SOLVE THE PROBLEM.   It's a really well done film.  Below is a direct link.  Look...

https://ia600607.us.archive.org/22/items/TunisianVictoryRestoted/TunisianVictoryRestoted.mp4

Apparently, some re-enactment scenes were filmed by a young director named John Huston.  But the film is all historical fact.  We just discovered this gem, while doing some research.  Why was North Africa so important?  Because of the oil.   Once Hitler's gang lost the oil fields of Libya, they were done.  No "blitz" in their "krieg" without their petrol-burning war machines.  The tank drivers during the "Battle of the Bulge" carried hoses to siphon fuel from any vehicles they could find.

Details re. this Pubic Domain documentary:

https://archive.org/details/TunisianVictoryRestoted

(the typo for "Restored", as the word "Restoted" is part of the correct URL Also, the streaming from the archive.org site does not work well, so it is often better to download the film as an .mp4, and watch it using "mplayer" or whatever media=player your machine uses.  It is a good film, despite it being shameless propaganda - since the war was still on in 1944, and it was necessary to show that a co-ordinated, and difficult-won victory had been achieved.)

We all did this once. 

For many of us, it was our fathers and our grand-fathers who actually were in this fight.  My father was a very young lad, in the RCAF.   He was a bomber pilot.  In a real bomber aircraft - not a car-driver like some "bombers."   And my mother was part German.  Her father was German, and he signed up to fight FOR the Canadian military, and AGAINST Hitler's facist murder-gang.  I have a picture of him in his uniform.  He has a serious face in that image.  In my father's pictures in his Air Force uniform, he is almost always smiling.  He was very young.

War is really not about your race, or religion or nationality.   It is about what is right and true and honest - and what must be done to maintain human freedom in the World.  

My partner is Japanese, and her father fought for Japan in Manchuria, China.   He knew and said to others that the war was stupid and wrong, but he went and did what he was told, because that was what a young man did then, when he was conscripted by his nation-state.

What Putin has done in Ukraine is evil and stupid and wrong - regardless of how well his lies play among misguided and dis-informed Russians. 

This war is moving close to home for many of us now.  I spoke with a friend yesterday, who is travelling with others today, first to somewhere in Eastern Europe, and then to somewhere that must not be disclosed, to try to bring out an injured friend.    We often disagree on politics when we chat - but in this shitstorm of Putin's madness, every fucking one of us, are on the same side.  

I told my friend how goddamn proud I was of him, for doing what he and his guys are going to try to do.   We talked of politics, and I said we all have to choose sides now.  He disagreed, and said he is not choosing sides.  But I said he was - he is on the side of his friends and buddies, and has decided to try and help one of his buddies who is in trouble.  

That is a good side to be on.   It seems like the right side.

This is why we have to help Ukraine, and the people who are fighting a perfect-storm of evil.

Everyone will be in this fight, eventually.  Every. Single. Person. On. This. Planet.

[ Apr. 12, 2022 ] - The Emerging Details From Bucha Prove Putin Is a Terrorist Killer- What is interesting, is that Vladimir Putin really, honestly, is a dangerous, world-threatening terrorist.   The Ukraine Terror War is a planned, designed, explicitly-crafted exercise in pure civilian-killing terrorism.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61071243

This was not "bad soldiers running out of control".   This was a planned exercise in brutal terrorism, designed to crush Ukranian national identity, and inflict mass pain and horror on a significant group of non-combatants, so as to obtain a political objective. 

Putin is using *exactly* the same tactics that ISIS used in Syria.   Many of the Russian "soldiers" (a term we use lightly), are "veterans" of the "Syrian exercise", in which similar horrific action took place. 

It is the weirdly awful human weakness that old Joe Biden showed to the world, when American forces "cut and ran" from Afghanistan, that seems to have been the trigger that has allowed Putin to engage this astonishingly awful exercise in human horror.  We truly feared the results of the Afghan withdrawal.  America never looked so poor & weak as it did then.  The Americans ran away in the night - and abandoned a fine nation-building project that was actually working pretty well.  The results have been tragic.

Putin is doing this insane exercise - because he can.     Something has *toggled* inside that man's head, and he has successfully projected an unwell-person's false world-view, blocked all open communication with Russian people by using KGB-style "information confrontation" on his nation's media, and created this bizarre climate of mass-hatred that has allowed this idiotically awful war to proceed.  He is now a lonely, angry old man, full of his own truly twisted hate. 

This is one of the very worst human nightmares that can occur.  We have a truth-blinded and degraded nation, dominated by a hate-filled angry old man, embarked on a mission of mass-murder, driven by his own madness, and determined to crush anyone who stands in his way.   The whole thing is like a bad historical drama, by a cold, hungry writer.

Except it is really happening.   In Mariupol, little remains on the honest, elected government - amid the rubble and the ruins.  But the Mayor is still there.  He indicates that over 20,000 civilians have been killed in the bombing of his city.   Think about that for a second...  *twenty thousand people* - and the entire city destroyed. 

It is criminally insane for the rest of the World to stand back, and not send military forces to help Ukraine defend it's own lands.   We all are at risk, from a nuclear-armed nation-state that is willing to destroy a city, just so it can have a customs-free "land corridor" to it's other piece of stolen property.   The lack-of-action by the European, American and other military forces of the world, is just so weirdly wrong, that it is curious.  

We will have to engage Russia, go to war with them, and risk a nuclear conflict.  The Putin Regime, with it's "spy-murder-men / war to destroy cities / lie-lie-lie" political model is just not something the world can tolerate.   If it takes a nuclear war to end this, then that price must be paid.  

The nation of Ukraine will *never* be part of Russia after this.  What Putin's gangsters have done now in Ukraine cannot ever be forgiven or forgotten.  I never expected to see anything this awful insane - Nation-state organized terror &  mass-murder at scale - against ordinary modern people just trying to live their lives.   We thought this Hitler+Nazi stuff was in the past.  But Putin and Lukashenko have found Hitler's corpse, dug him up, and climbed into his skin, together.  The Ukraine Terror War is horror like in ancient times.

This absolutely changes everything.    We believe there is a very high probability that full-on war with Russia will have to take place, unless major regime-change can occur in that country.  Given the nature of Putin, and his murder-spy governance model, we do not believe this will happen internally.  So, we suspect that World War Three simply cannot be avoided.   What is curious, is that China will likely be our ally.

We should probably get started on this project while it has a chance of being doable, and has a good chance of success.  If we wait, the costs and the scale of destruction will be much greater.  We are certain of this.

And we must realize - there will be a significant number of Russians - who will be willing to fight FOR a Free Russia, and AGAINST Putin.   Our enemy is not Russia or the Russian people - it is the Putin Gangsters, and the terrorist-killers he has carefully and explicitly enabled.

[ Apr. 7, 2022 ] - German Defense Intelligence Intercepted Radio Messages from Russian Forces Describing Real-Time Killing of Civilians - Russian military radio traffic was monitored by German spy agency, as the mass murders of Ukrainian civilians in Bucha was taking place.   This is old-fashioned SIGINT - Signals Intelligence - spys listening to radio traffic.  This time, it has confirmed the Russian military chit-chatting about questioning & then killing civilians as part of their invasion actions.  Details were reported by German media group "Der Spiegel" - result of an intelligence briefing by the BND to German political persons.

https://www.spiegel.de/politik/ukraine-butscha-soldaten-besprachen-graeueltaten-gegen-zivilisten-ueber-funk-a-9e01662c-aa7e-4828-bf6f-f662d9b6164e

https://www.timesofisrael.com/german-intel-said-to-intercept-russian-communications-confirming-bucha-killings/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/07/bucha-german-intelligence-radio-bnd-russia/

(this African site below carries a difficult pictures - a group of dead civilian bodies - and a closeup of a dead woman's hand, with what appears to be a fingernail torn off.. )

https://osazuwaakonedo.news/us-germany-trace-russia-army-units-responsible-for-reckless-mass-killings-in-bucha/07/04/2022/

[ Apr. 6, 2022 ] - Zelenskiy, President of Ukraine, is Correct - Russia must be removed from the UN "Security Council" and designated a rogue, terrorist entity, the same as ISIS was.  

Zelenskiy is correct, when he says that Russia, and Putin's terrorist military, are no different than the ISIS terrorists. The Bucha atrocities are beyond even what ISIS did to it's civilians.  The Russian FSB Lie Squads - with their "Information Confrontation" strategies of deception and false-accusations, cannot succeed in their attempts to create doubt about this horror.  There are just too many corpses, and too much explicit evidence of the horror, and too many destroyed houses, mass graves, bodies in the streets, and eye-witness accounts of exactly what took place.

Of course, since the Russian state entities have nuclear weapons, they are a hundred times worse than ISIS.   The existence of Russia as a terrorist entity, threatens us all.  Nothing Russian government entities say can be trusted now.

The World cannot have a nation-state like Russia operating within it's midst, anymore than we could have Hitler's Death Camps and slave-labour factories still operating in Poland and Germany.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61003878

All Russian ports should be blockaded, and any Russian ships or aircraft should be siezed or embargoed, until regime-change occurs.    Russia as it exists now, must be ended, and replaced with new people in it's government.    Technical methods should be deployed to make this outcome occur.

The events in Bucha are only the beginning.  What is taking place in the south of Ukraine, where the coastal cities are being destroyed, is possibly even worse.

There is no justification whatsoever for this outrageous terrorism and horrific mass-murder that is taking place.  It is visible from satellite images, for god's sakes - and yet the Lie Squads in Moscow pump out their absurd cascades of deception.

I wish Ron Reagan were here.  He once joked, to test a microphone:  "I have just today signed legislation outlawing the Soviet Union.  The bombing will start in 5 minutes."  That was a jest. 

But now, of course, we could replace the words "Soviet Union" with "Russian Federation", and Ron's course of action would be considered fine, noble, necessary and justified - by all right-thinking people of integrity and honour.

At the very least, it is time for international military units to be deployed into Ukraine to assist the Ukrainian military, and repel the horrific terrorist assault that Ukraine is now facing. 

Mark these words:  If the World does not address the Russian Federation as the terrorist entity that it clearly is - now, when it can be shut-down with a solid show of co-ordinated force by Europe and North American forces - we will have to deal with an even greater and more awful Russian aggression and mass-murder in the near future.

There is no reason that NATO or the Allied Democratic Nations of the world need to sit on their hands, and not assist Ukraine in it's awful hour of need.  Putin is an abusive, sadistic bully and a traditional thug-leader.  Other nations have produced these kinds of abusive, dishonest leaders in various historical periods.  The key is to shut them down, with allied force.

Now would be good time to stand up to this ugly evil.   If Putin uses nuclear weapons, then we have our chance to effectively and completely disable this rogue terrorist state - and make the world a vastly better and safer place.

It is better to do this necessary confrontation NOW, rather than wait for the Russian terrorist monster to get stronger, and even more dangerous. 

Realize:  Nothing that Russian entities, spokesman, diplomats or Putin himself says or asserts, can be considers as true or accurate.   They are using a cascade of "information confrontation" deception, and the everything about the Ukraine Terror War confirms the truth of this assertion.

Russian information cannot be trusted.   Nothing they say can be trusted.   They - explicitly, as a matter of strategy - seek to create doubt, and use over-the-top lies as a technical methodology of information warfare.

We should do all we can to have our confrontation now, and begin the process of de-militarizing the Russian Federation.   They are evil, cruel, dangerous liars, and they now actively threaten the peaceful operation of the World.    They must be dealt with.

Better to do it NOW, when we have a good chance of forcing behaviour change and political change upon them.   If we wait until later, then the opportunity will have slipped by, and this may cost the world 100 years of hostility and ongoing warfare.

[ Apr. 4, 2022 ] - We Must Study War
- And we must win the war.  (Research log is below the four images).

BBC Report - A village Mayor - and her husband and son - were killed by Russian invaders.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60989632

[ Apr. 3, 2022 ] - I have lost objectivity now.   I have tried to remain objective and such, while researching the Terror war that Russia has unleashed on Ukraine, but the atrocities in Irpin and Bucha - suburbs of Kyiv which look so much like Southern Ontario towns - has done it for me.   I confess I am no longer able to maintain any objectivity.   The Putin fascists must be ended, regardless of what the costs are that we must face, and the risks we must accept.

I believe now - honestly in my heart - that Putin's Russia is something we must gear up to correct - with all global resources - and destroy, if necessary.   If I could - I would simply obliterate Moscow, and all the Russian military.  

If I could launch a nuclear strike on Putin's location, I would do it. 

We cannot share a planet with these murderous, psychopathic sadists.   We could not live with a Hitler, and his Death Camps and his invasions and organized murders of European Jews, and I believe now, we cannot live with Putin's fascist Henchmen, and his Chechen Death Squads, and his insane, murderous lies.  

I cannot see a way out of this, that does not involve ending Russia's ability to field any military or militia forces, or any forces of any kind, anywhere.   Their military must be completely expunged, and Putin must be tried for war crimes, and put in jail for the rest of his life, and/or executed.  

The BBC reporter walked thru Bucha, with Ukrainian soldiers, and counted over 20 bodies, lying on the streets of the town.  Many had their arms tied behind their backs, and most appeared to be shot in the back of the head.  Invading Russians simply took people from their homes, and killed them.   The invaders captured ordinary elderly civilians, killed them, and left their bodies in the streets.   Some corpses are booby-trapped, with explosives.   This was an ISIS trick, which Russians have adopted.  The Ukrainian soldiers have also discovered a lot of land mines.  The area is still very dangerous.

The people killed were just ordinary civilians who lived in this suburban village.  These Russian actions are War Crimes beyond even what Hitler's forces did in the 1940's.   Seriously, this is the truth.

Click on link below, to see the BBC report about Bucha, and what the Ukraine liberators discovered:  (Warning:  Difficult scenes... )

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60967463

This cannot stand.  The Ukraine Terror Atrocities must be avenged.  This is the World's 9/11.

- xxx -

[ Page down past the five image sections (with notes), to see the "Web-Log (Blog)" section, for daily notes, if you wish.  An earlier note - from several days ago, follows directly below...]

---

We've been doing some curious and serious research related to mass-influence driven human psychology models.

It turns out it is crazy easy to program masses of people, using modern technology.  This began with the printing-press, and political "tracts", which evolved into newspapers, which evolved into newsreels, which became "television", and then the internet.  It's a long-chain molecule of deception, and programmed disinformation.

You can ask a simple question: "Why has the World Gone Crazy?"   There are some clear answers to this query.

The pandemic is part - study the "Dancing Sickness" outbreaks after the Great European Black-Death Plagues, for some post-plague wild behaviour changes - at scale, across cultures.

But it gets worse, once the field of "weaponized information" is opened. 

The Russian KGB were absolute experts at this stuff.  They learned from the Germans, who used it to turn a small fringe political outfit in Munich, run by a clever-but-twisted fellow named Adolf H., into a mass-movement that captured the hearts and minds of enough German citizens - from all walks of life - sufficient to take control of the nation.   Watch Leni Reifenstahl's "Triumph of the Will".  It looks modern - but it was made in 1934.  

The KGB militarized this propaganda playbook, and it is up-and-running right exactly now in Russia, on the internet, on global social-media, and on the TV screens.   It is horrific.  It is lies.  And it works.

You might wonder about the weirdness of Donald Trump, or the use of old Joe Biden as the best choice the Democrat Party in USA could come up with, or the strangely weak-to-the-world, but brutal and hostile-to-Canadians fellow, named Justin, who had a clever Dad, and who now runs (sort of) Canada.    None of these strange shit-choices make any sense - until you put them into the context of a militarized conflict - except the militarization weapon is *information*, and the whole "Cascade of Lies" strategy - that characterizes just about everything we see and hear on electronic media now - except some direct channels of information from specific, individual persons, who try to puncture the almost-sealed mainstream-media filter-bubbles, that are wrapped around most people's internet experience now.

Yes, the political system is being hijacked and manipulated in nasty ways.

Yes, the media, the TV and the internet are trying to make your children "queer" and "gay".

Yes, the information that you can find on main-stream media is filtered, framed and directed to you, to achieve explicit political objectives. 

Yes, everything is becoming weirdly and wildly "political", in a nasty, dangerous and toxic way.

Russia is using - not just a "Big Lie" - but a cascading waterfall of continous deception - an actual "Tsunami of Lies" to promote it's outrageous mass-murder and State terrorism exercise in Ukraine.   It is not a "Special Military Operation" - it is an outright KGB-playbook example of State destruction and an attempt at the mass subjegation of human freedom - on a "blitzkreig" scale - a "Lightning War" to destroy a political movement and smaller nation which is based on simple honesty and democratic reality.     Ukraine - living in honesty and truth -  threatens Putin, so he is doing all he can to destroy it.

But it is not just Ukraine.

There are these astoninshing cultural movements (dis-information driven) in USA, which seem crazy and bizarre, until they are seen as militarized attempts to destroy the traditional values of honesty and common sense that have characterized USA since it's beginning.

Yes, the KGB (which does not even exist - it is now called the FSB) really does have long, detailed technical manuals, about how to de-stabilize a national government, how to get the people of a nation *fighting with each other* rather than fighting the external threat that is trying to destroy their national focus and ability ot operate as a common political entity.

Information can be - most effectively - weaponized.   The Catholic Church figured this out very early on, and used all the tricks - bells, smells and fear of hells - to subjegate all of Europe for many hundreds of years.   All religions do this.

In territory where Russians are in control, in Ukraine - the school kids are finding *all* Ukrainian symbols and even the Ukrainian language is being removed from classrooms.   The Russians have this classical "Playbook of State Subjegation" - and they are using it.  

What is happening in the USA - and Canada, the UK and Europe, is more subtle attempts - at every level - to degrade, damage and deface our historical, national characteristics.   Those who believe they should "nudge" humans to accept their political choices - are very much hard at work.  

We had thought Trump Phenomenon might be a reaction to this.  But it is possible, that Trump is actually a KGB/FSB Russian operative, and is part of the campaign to de-stabilize the USA.   He does not even actually know this, which makes it basically "Theatre of the Absurd" comical.

Don't think this is possible?   This concern was standard Hollywood fair, back in the 1960's, when people were just plain much smarter, than they are now.   The world had been through a hellstorm of world-war, that ended with nuclear weapons being used to destroy two Japanese cities.  The astonishing ramp-up of scientific knowledge - and it's application to real, practical engineering and social problems - was like nothing that came before or since.  USA entered and fought the Vietnam War, because it was the necessary and correct thing to do.   They simply decided not to actually *win* the war, out of fear of Russia.    Russia again - the destroyer of worlds, it seems.

Perhaps Trump really is "The Manchurian Candidate"?   (Screen John Frankenheimer's brilliant film, if you get a chance.  It was made in 1962, and really resonates, here in 2022...) 

In a sane and rational USA, both Biden and Trump, would stand together on a TV camera, and give the Russian goons 12 hours to remove their murder squadrons from Ukraine, and the stupid January 6th "insurrection" witch-hunt nonsense would simply be shut down.   Judges for the Supreme Court would be chosen based on the quality of their legal scholarship, and a careful examination of their written judgements.  They would not be chosen on the basis of skin colour and sex organs.

But now we have a non-racist American society - turning explicitly racist, and trying to queer-up it's children - and the cinema and TV shows reek of nothing but brutal, thrill-triggering violence and twisted sexuality.

One must rationally consider and suspect that the USA is being actively targeted in the most direct and explicit information-warfare assault in all of human history.

If USA can be weakened, and degraded, and the political and cultural groups in America can be made to fight with each other - instead of fighting the evil that is being actively deployed in the world - then we are all at risk.

The American Conservative movement should simply "Dump Trump", and get back to just lining up behind truth and honesty and fairness and old-fashioned "arsenal of Democracy" strength.

All the queer-gay-transgender nonsense should be told to stay in the bedroom or the cathouse where it belongs, schools should be run by the careful focus of scientists, not by unionized, second and third rate politicized Teacher's Unions, and political people should stop trying to manipulate and extend absurd social agendas and focus instead on using the taxation system to create defense technology for the nation, and build a better, more sane, relaxed world.

The Conservatives get a lot right.   And Biden is also right when he says that that murdering madman Valdimir Putin has to be removed from power.

We all need to stop fighting with each other over absurd issues that neither make any sense, nor can possibly benefit anyone, anywhere, in the long run - or even the short run.

And we need to get the State finances under some sort of rational control, so economic sanity can be maintained.   If not - we can say as Economists and social scientists - that we will absolutely track the Mathusian die-back curves, and experience war, starvation, and mass death, since the planet does not have infinite capacity to support unlimited population growth.  (Even if the human world does seem to have a capacity for infinite stupidity.)

The economic, trading, cultural and political situation in Europe, Ukraine and Russia, was in a fine and stable mode, until this idiot-monster Putin decided to destroy it all.  He must be ended.

What this means - is that all nations, must put aside their f*cking stupid (literally!) cultural conflicts, religious squabbles and racist cat-fights, and engage the necessary fight to remove this nuclear-armed lunatic from power in Russia.    We will then need a huge "Marshal Plan" to repair the damage in Ukraine, and also uplift the mass-poor in Russia. 

This is the only rational path forward. 

We may need a fairly big war, to make this happen.   But this cruel, insane mass bombing campaign in Ukraine, must end now.    And the USA must have leaders of each of it's political parties that can work together in a crisis.   We need to destroy Putin and save  Russia.   No other choice really remains.  We must repair a broken nation, controlled by a madman. That means the madman must first be neutralized.

And maybe the women should just stay home and have babies.   Yes, I know this is a crazy idea, but maybe family folks might want to give it a try.   It is actually a model for stability, that has worked pretty good in history.   The current model - where every low-IQ person is expected to do every damn thing in the world - this is not really good, nor is it a good idea to waste females on the battlefield, and in the world of business.  This is maybe part of what is making everyone crazy.  There is unwise confusion.

But maybe the very top leaders should be women.   Catherine the Great of Russia was a wise leader and Elizabeth the First of England was as well (and maybe HRH the Second also...).   They did pretty good work.  Germany did alright under Merkel, and Thatcher saved the UK from a time of political-economic foolishness.   Women in the very top jobs, could be something we might want to institutionalize.

We also need to re-design the United Nations, since it is badly broken, and does not work at all.

But first - we must get rid of Putin, and the Thug Murder-Monkey's of Russia.   They have to be ended, and this project should begin now.    There is too much unwise, painful death and destruction taking place in Ukraine, that will damage us all, if we do not take action now.

Here is what the Russian fascist army did to the pretty Kyiv suburb town of Irpin - and the families that lived there.   Ukraine soldiers that liberated the town found it destroyed, with corpses of civilians in the streets:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jHV-aZzxtY4

If we fail to act and correct this insane State-sanctioned murderous terrorist nightmare, it will dominate the next 100 years of our trans-national politics, and is certain to result in the eventual destruction of much of our civilization on this planet.   

Mariupol is becoming a Russian-made Christian Holocaust.  Russian terrorists will not be able to lie their way out of this fact.   If the forces of freedom and democracy do not help, and allow this city and it's people to be murdered, then the history of the next 100 years, will be all about obtaining revenge for this atrocity, and ensuring the complete destruction of Russia.    Removing Putin now, can save Russia, and save the future.  But if our governments in the West continue to sit on the sidelines, and let this awful murder exercise continue, then we are programming-in the Apocalypse.    We are very certain of this.

Vladimir Putin is a Dangerous, Sadistic War Criminal. He May Also Be Insane.

A Shopping Mall bombed in Kyiv by a Russian cruise missile. Putin's invasion of Ukraine is a terrorist exercise. Putin should meet the same fate as Osama Bin Laden. Reports indicate at least SEVEN innocent civilians were killed in this cowardly terrorist attack. Putin will pay, and will end his days in prison - or worse.

[ Apr. 4, 2022 ] - Details of the Mass Murder of Civilians in Bucha, Suburb Village of Kyiv - are even worse than originally suspected.  Based on the number of corpses - many with their hands or arms tied behind their backs - was thought to be less than 100.  It is now seen that the murder toll is likely to be many hundreds, (410 dead, is the number some sources are reporting) and perhaps even more.

The Russians - rather than showing any interest in trying to investigate what took place - are simply denying that it happened - despite the Ukrainian and UK investigations teams now on site, and the mass-graves being found - and initial photographs of the civilian victims that were discovered, lying in the street.  (Putting murdered civilians in the street is a terror-technique.  There are reasons why this was done, we suspect.  The Russian military likes to think it is "strong".)

We predict that open warfare with Russia will now occur - perhaps not until the current crop of European women-leaders and Putin-ally types are removed - but it will occur eventually.  Maybe by next year?  Or maybe next week?  Angela Merkel must deeply regret the error of trusting Putin.  Putin is a monster - and a deeply dishonest sociopathic liar.   Like the textbook sociopath, he can lie with great confidence.

Ukraine should have been given immediate NATO membership, as this would have prevented this viciously stupid invasion and mass-murder insanity.  War could have been avoided, if the European Union had shown strength of purpose, and stood up to the pure evil that Putin represents.

[ Apr. 2-3, 2022 ] - Crazy Russian Lie about Bioweapons in Ukraine - Refuted Even by Russian Microbiologist! - This Ukraine Invasion and Terror War of Putin's, is truly becoming insane and beyond anything that anyone could have imagined, two months ago.   The scale of the horror and terrorist attacks by Russian military in Ukraine is beyond anything we ever expected to see in Europe, except in 1940's newsreels or documentaries.  Russia has become this grotesque monster - and is now hated and despised all over the world. 

And the lies!  The insane, crazy lies that Putin's Henchmen are retailing to the Russian people, are beyond-belief crazy.   It is scary and fascinating - an entire nation is having the minds of it's people poisoned with these amazing lies:  

Even Russian Microbiologists are now saying this insane lie that there are "bioweapons labs" in Ukraine is an obvious lie - which can even be refuted by careful examination of the material the Russians themselves are publishing!

https://www.newsmax.com/scitech/biological-pathogens-labs-defense-ministry/2022/03/19/id/1061969/

Truth is being murdered in Russia, just like civilians are being murdered in Ukraine.  

This madness must be stopped.   Putin must be arrested and put on trial for war-crimes.

And apparently, Youtube will be banned in Russia as of April 5th.  This is so like Germany, under Hitler.  (They made radios, which did *not* have tuners - only pushbuttons for German stations.)

[ Apr. 2nd, 2022 ] - Logistics and Some Small Success - Hard bloody work, and difficult - but Ukraine forces move - villiage by villiage, farm by farm, to reclaim the land the fascist Russian invaders have occupied and destroyed.  Russia will be corrected, I promise this. 

Here is video, of a villiage being liberated - not Russian lie-videos, but actual "living in truth" videos of actual entry by Ukraine Military - into occupied areas.  Never thought in 2022, we would be living/seeing this:   (Video of Ukrainian village being liberated from Russian fascist invaders... We are impressed by the tenacity and courage of the Ukrainian Military.)

https://youtu.be/WSZLtHyc0Mc

"In the fighting, the Armed Forces of Ukraine liberated the settlement of Nova Basan in the Chernihiv region. This was reported by the Military.

In the settlement the enemy suffered losses in armored
 vehicles and manpower. Residents of the village of Nova Basan were happy 
to welcome the Ukrainian military, who
liberated them from Russian occupation.
"

[The above is auto-translation from Ukraininan cyrillic to English, using Google Translate]

We support Ukraine. We read some of the material on USA so-called "conservative" websites, and
we are certain the writers of the anti-Ukraine dis-info, are being paid by Russian agents.

The world is a tiny village now.
We are all in this fight. We are conservatives - and we believe that Putin
must be tried and convicted of war-crimes. Russia must be de-militarized

[ Apr. 1st, 2022 ] - Russia is Taking Hostages Now in Ukraine - Thousands of Them! - That whole history-of-Russia thing: They say in Russia, just when you think it could not get any worse - it then gets worse.   Russian forces have kidnapped several *thousand* Ukraine citizens from Mariupol, stolen all their stuff, taken their passports, and shipped them to a Concentration Camp! ( which is a cold, tent city of blue plastic tents that can be seen from satellite images) inside Russia.  

This is actually a "black-letter-law" kind of war crime - the forcable deportation of populations of people from their homelands, against their will.  It is basically a mass hostage-taking - by a murder-army that is behaving as terrorist killers and thieves.   "Operator Starsky" documents this - from the front lines, near Kyiv and Irpin:  (This guy is amazing.  He is actually right there, making these youtube-videos!)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=opqBC4mpRqw

We need to take this war to Moscow, is the feeling one gets.   But not like Napolean - more like Iraq - or even Hiroshima.   Putin is a war criminal, a terrorist, and the person that ordered the murder of Boris Nemtsov.  We agree with USA President Biden:  Putin cannot remain in power.

BBC Report - Evidence of Horrific War Crimes Near Kyiv.  Corpses of  many unarmed civilians killed along highway into Kyiv.  (Warning..  difficult to watch)

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60949791

It's time for the military forces of the world to now enter this fight.  This is not just a Ukraine problem now.  This affects all of us.  It is a world problem.  The World is now at war with Russia.  No other possible choice exists.

[ Mar. 30, 2022 ] - Russia Fake Videos & Explanation How We Know They Are Fake - This is really interesting.  There are fake Russian-made videos that pretend to show Ukrainian soldiers killing Russian hostages and prisoners.   These videos are provable fakes.  They are Russian-made, and specific items in the videos themselves establish that they are bogus. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IUfG1HG-4XQ

What Putin is doing in Ukraine is not acceptable.  It must not stand.  We are at a major, significant turning point in human history.  This situation is now as critical as at the beginning of the two previous World Wars.  Few people recognize this yet, and the weak leadership in Europe and North America fails to understand this also, we suspect.    The failure of the United Nations to have any meaningful impact on this absurd nightmare proves that that institution is so deeply flawed that it is now essentially worthless.

All military forces in the World need to act together, to assist in the immediate neutralization of the Russian invasion assault on that country.  Putin himself must be arrested for illegal mass-terrorism and mass-murder.  He must be stopped and his forces neutralized.   The planet is too small and crowded now, for this sort of murderous madness to be allowed.   Those Nation-State leaders who argue that we must "not get involved", for various legalistic reasons, will go down in history as the grotesque group of "Weak Leaders who Failed to Act" and caused the "The Great Collapse of Free Europe" - a period of many years of darkness and conflict, that looms before us all, if Putin's Terrorists are not completely and absolutely defeated.

[ Mar. 29, 2022 PM ] - Putin Needs to be Dealt With -  We (the World) must risk nuclear war with this Putin character.  He and his Thug Army of Terrorists are not fit to walk in this world.  We have the technology to remove this person, and we and many others, believe the time has come, and we must now use it.  

He sleeps somewhere, and uses a toilet somewhere.   The abusive Russian assault in Ukraine is pure terrorism - it is not even warfare - it is just KGB/FSB terror tactics that would offend even Stalin or Hitler.  Putin is a human nightmare - an abusive terrorist and possibly a madman, and he must be dealt with accordingly.    The risks of leaving this fellow in charge of nuclear-armed Mother Russia are too great.   We doubt Putin will not make any kind of peace with Ukraine.   We envision a scenario where he will just lie and delay and will keep attacking and killing until he is stopped, or Ukraine is destroyed.

Osama Bin Laden was a problem, and the USA took action.  But this is just Osama Bin Laden, with nuclear weapons, and a giant Thug Army at his disposal.  This presents a bigger problem, but a targeted strike on the location of this creature, could result in a return to peace.

It would be foolish and dangerous - at this point - to think that one could negotiate with Putin or his terrorist army.  Putin is a liar.  He cannot be trusted.   His reduction of military effort around Kyiv is because a large portion of his military in that area has been seriously degraded or effectively neutralized, if not outright defeated.  Putin is not "shifting focus from Kyiv", he is papering an effective military defeat with yet another lie.

President Biden of the USA is absolutely correct.   This Putin character cannot remain in power.  His reign of criminal terror needs to be ended.   We have to roll the big dice, and risk the big move here - else this vicious, sadistic ex-KGB spy-boy may well try to kill the whole world.  

[ Mar. 29, 2022 ] - Irpin Liberated from Invading Russian Forces - According to Operator Starksy - Just learned about this fellow, and his Youtube channel.   He is Ukrainian dude, reporting from front lines around Kyiv - in English, which is helpful for us.  Ukraine needs to get some of those Polish MIG-29's, along with some ordnance to fit on them, to help remove Russian artilery positions firing on Kyiv.  Assaults with Russian cruise missiles against Lviv shows how nasty Putin's Russia is being in this war.   The Russians attack civilians, as a pure exercise in terror.  This must be resisted.   This entire Russian "Special Military Operation"  must end in complete failure, and in Putin's removal as Russian leader.     Ukraine needs a "Lend-Lease" augmentation to it's air force.  And some tanks and APC's also.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cUap7S7elHc

[ Mar. 27-28, 2022 ] - Strong Evidence Exists that Boris Nemtsov was Killed by Putin's FSB Agent, Valery Sukharev - Boris Nemtsov was not just a "Putin critic."  In the 1990's, he was Deputy Premier of Russia.  He was supposed to take over after Yeltsin.  There is very strong evidence that Putin's FSB (the "Federal Security Bureau" - successor spy organ to the KGB) had Nemtsov murdered - only steps from the Kremlin, in 2015. 

This was the beginning of the end for Russian freedoms. Direct evidence has been obtained - which actually comes from the FSB's own data tracking system - that Nemstov was being shadowed  ("tailed") by a specific FSB agent - Valery Sukharev -  on 13 seperate trips.   Nemtsov was a good man - and was expected to be the successor the Boris Yeltsin, but Putin managed to get the job, and forced Nemtsov out.   There are honorable and good people in Russia, who want this war-and-murder madness to end - but they are being targeted by FSB agents and Putin gang-members.    They are being poisoned and/or jailed.   This is seriously wrong, and it is getting worse now... much worse.

This is not "fake news" or conspiracy fabrication - this is documented evidence that comes from the FSB's own tracking database (called "Magistral"), and is reported on in detail, by the BBC:  (Link to details below)

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60878663

There is a dangerous world-storm brewing, because Russia is being destroyed by extremist criminal gangster forces.  And it appears Vladimir Putin is behind this ugly nightmare.  USA President Biden was right when he said in Warsaw: "For God's Sakes, this man cannot remain in power!", referring to the murderer, Vladimir Putin, who still is acting as leader of Russia.  (Youtube clip of Warsaw speech):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VLN_P5u1ALI

We agree with President Biden.  He spoke the truth.

The last independent newpaper/media outlet in Russia was forced to shut down today.  Novaya Gazeta - founded in part by Mikhail Gorbachev, back in 1993 - has had to close, due to threats from the Russian media regulator.   There are now *no* independent news or media outlets operating in Russia.   Putin has effectively erased or imprisoned all his political opponents, and has shutdown all media which does not report and retail his outrageous nonsense lies about Ukraine being controlled by Nazis.  

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-novaya-gazeta-newspaper-pauses-activities-after-official-warning-2022-03-28/

We think Bill Ackman is right.  The Third World War has now officially begun.  Biden and the Europeans are afraid to deploy troops to Ukraine.  This is unfortunate, since we suspect this means that when the Free World does have to engage the Russian nightmare, it will be a much bigger and more militarized Russia that we will all have to face - and defeat.

The best time to fix a really horrible problem, is when it is still small.   But sadly, many people fail to see just how horrible and awful this current problem is.   But those of us who are blessed (or cursed) with the ability to see how scenarios will most likely unfold - must suffer greatly, as we have to watch in horror as the preventable disaster unfolds before our eyes.

For God's sakes, leader-people, if you know that this dishonest, war-making Putin character is this extreme threat to the Free World, then please TAKE ACTION and address this ugly threat effectively.   The body-count from this killer, is growing too high.   Stop him!

We can say with some certainty, that "sanctions" and economic threats will have no chance at all, of changing Putin's behaviour.  We are *most certain* of this.  DIRECT ACTION is required.

[ Mar. 25, 2022 ] - How to Donate Money to Ukrainian Military Charity - I have never donated money online to a charity in my life.  Until now.   I sent a couple of thousand "Hryvnia"  (UAH is the currency code) to this charity.   I hope it is legitimate.  I used the "Fondy" system, and a Canadian Visa card.   The rate looks to be about 85 bucks Canadian, (update: it was $88.36, as charged to my Visa card account), which will also have a 2.5% commission tacked on.  Here is the URL, which I got from the Youtube video of the "Orsk" being blown to burning hell.   Damn straight work, gentlemen.  If I spoke Ukrainian or Russian, I would probably just go and help out.  

This Russian invasion of Ukraine is just so goddamn unacceptable, it's almost beyond belief.  If our governments will not act, then private citizens must take action.   This Russian illegal murder madness must be stopped.  Invading Russian murder-squadrons must be *completely* neutralized.   NATO forces are not required to sit on their arses.   What Russia is doing violates - completely - all civilized behaviour and basic human law.   Here is a link to a Ukraine military charity:

https://savelife.in.ua/en/donate/ 

I did a little research project on Fondy, and it looks ok.  If I get any negative consequences (ie. someone hacks my card info, or whatever), I will post the information here.  (Update: transaction looks clean and ok, so far.  Update2: We did get a bogus email pretending to be from "Canada Post" about a "shipment that could not be delivered".  We know this email is bogus, due to it containing a link to an S3 Amazon server (spoofing as the "Canada Post" website), and a source email address from a non-local overseas website.  The email had a clickable link, which would have been used to harvest information and/or drop a toxic binary payload onto our machine.  We get so many bogus email-fraud messages, that this might have been unrelated to the Ukrainian donation.  Basic data hygiene:  Never click on an email link, to open a webpage, and always clear cookies, browser-cache and history, after any financial transaction.)  

We typically now have to use online-payment methods for many transactions now - so just use common sense, and clear your cookies and browser cache and such, after any payment is made, etc.  But the Ukrainian URL looks legit, and so does Fondy.    I am just so angry about this whole Russian Invasion thing - myself and some others had done some serious work to establish good, honest, fine economic systems in Eastern Europe, and here this crazy Russian spymaster Putin, with early Alzhiemer's, is back to this "Send in the Tanks, and crush the Civil Society!" war nonsense.  It is unwise, illegal, cruel and it will do terrible damage to Russia itself.

This horrific, illegal Ukraine invasion will not stand, I promise this.   It's open-season on Russian assets and Russian killers.   Get busy, folks.   In the words of Warren Zevon:  "Send lawyers, guns and money."     We are working on a plan.  Will update here, if it can be pulled together, and made to work.  We have to make sure we stay on the right side of our local law.

[ Mar. 24, 2022 ] - In Berdyansk, the Russian Warship "Orsk" is Sent to Hell  - Where it belongs, along with it's murderous mission.  Footage of the explosions in occupied Berdyansk harbour show what happened.  We have been wondering if and when Russian warship traffic would be addressed.  There is nothing easier to hit than a fat ship full of murdering pirates, if you have the basic technology - cannons, missiles, or DEWs.   And a ship full of war materials - typically ammunition and explosive ordnance - blows up real good.  Take a look at the action in the harbour,  at invader-occupied port of Berdyansk:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DxspTUgT_fY

Someone has posted another copy of the same video at this URL.    The "Orsk" is the burning ship, and the video shows another badly damaged warship (burning, in the background) leaving the harbour, while in the foreground, what appears to be an undamaged warship is also leaving.     Dramatic footage...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PuroZQ5Vfww

This is a low-resolution cell-phone video, picked up by the BBC, of the same scene, without much detail:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60859337

In Boris Johnson's words: "Russian actions have crossed a red-line into barbarism."  We agree.  The above is Ukraine Navy action.  As for Air Force, a Ukrainian Defense Industry company has an interesting offer - One million US dollars for any Russian pilot who defects to the side of Freedom, with a Russian warplane:

https://ukroboronprom.com.ua/en/news/ukroboronprom-gotovii-viplatiti-premiyi-za-vikradenu-boiovu-aviaciinu-texniku-okupantiv1

The Ukrainian Air Force hopes to add to its strength, with additional Russian MIGs, Sukoi jets, or attack helicopters.  We hope they get takers of this offer.  Freedom is better than slavery.  The legal system in Russia is controlled by Putin yes-men - viz. the new, additional 9-year sentance handed to already-imprisoned Navalny, without him even having a chance to offer any sort of meaningful legal defense.   No one is safe from Putin's henchmen now, in the Russia Putin is trying to create.

More Talk, Talk, & Talk:  NATO folks, leaders, ministers and Biden and Johnson are getting together to do some more talking.  The UK is promising 6000 missiles for Ukraine.   Talk is noise, but missiles are good.   Germany sent 50 Mercedes trucks with red crosses painted on them.  We fear the Russians will use these big red images as targets.

The Free World is lucky to have Johnson, Scholz and Zelenskiy.  Shame about weak Mr. Biden.

This horrible and insane exercise in un-needed, fake-news+lie-driven combat-conquest could be over in 15 minutes, if the talkshop folks at NATO could get off their arses, and just take some initiative.   Just call it a "forward defense exercise" and quickly go in and neutralize a bunch of Russian terrorist assets.  Let's be clear.  This is a terror-war of pure conquest.  It threatens the Free World.  Putin is calling the brutal Ukrainian terror-war a "special military operation".   NATO could call it's response the establishment of a "forward threat-facing preliminary European defensive envelope".    Ask Sweden if they would like to help.  Make it a non-NATO exercise, if necessary.  

Sitting on our arses, while democratically-run modern European cities are bombed and overrun by murdering military-supported terrorist invaders, is just not acceptable.  Those burning cities are us.  We are them.  Those dying Ukranians are our people.

Our research suggests that the outrageous American "cut-and-run" weakness Biden showed to the World, in the tragic Afghanistan withdrawal, has been a key trigger of this Ukraine invasion nightmare.  Putin watched as American forces literally ran away in the night, and decided to try to exploit this sad weakness, by simply taking Ukraine by conquest.  IF we don't stop this madman now, (we believe he has lost his sense of balance, and has early-stage dementia), he is certain to continue to kill.  The greatest escalation, will come from further inaction on the part of the West.   Putin probably believes he is being Alexander Nevsky.  But in fact, he is being the hated invader - much like a Mongol warlord.   Putin betrays Russia.

This bad action will only be ended by forceful confrontation - sanctions will have *ZERO* effect, and will be used by Putin to make his cruel position stronger.    This is so obvious, it is painful to watch the Biden crew fuck around with economic sanctions.  The sanctions are unfair, abusive and silly.  They will only hurt those who have no ability to alter the course of events.  They will damage Europe, annoy ordinary Russians, hurt American interests, and strengthen Putin's hold over the Russian state.   Sanctions have not worked in the past, and they will have little positive effect here.  Direct action - military assistance to Ukrainian democratic state, and direct confrontation of Putin's terror squadrons - is the only rational course of action.   If this is not done, much more needless death will occur.     We are certain of this.

Another brave journalist - a Russian woman of integrity and courage - was murdered by Russian shelling in Kyiv today.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2022/03/24/russian-journalist-oksana-baulina-killed-ukraine/7150709001/

None of this horrorshow of pain and cruelty needed to happen.  Terrorism is bad business all around.  But it requires active threat management, in real-time.  Bad shit must be stopped, early on, before it gets out of hand.   And it is now, most very much out of hand.   Hey NATO!   Act!

[ Mar. 23, 2022 ] - Sold, But Could Not Stay Out- FD: We exited, at a profit, our trading portfolio.  We believed markets are were under-estimating the damage and economic dislocation the Russian Terror War in Ukraine will have on the World.  

But, price for our testbed equity fell sharply, and we re-bought, due to inflation fear.  Which is better?  Having an equity position?  Or having cash in an account?  Historical research suggests holding quality equity is better by a significant degree.   Scary times, but one must act when action is called for, even if risk is high.  (Especially if risk is high...). 

An Honourable Man of High Integrity, Resigns, Bows Out, and Leaves the Country:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-reformer-chubais-leaves-post-putins-special-representative-source-2022-03-23/

Yeltsin, Chubais and the other Reformers - great men who built a new Russia of freedom and prosperity.   We followed young Chubais closely.  His reforms were clever and successful. Vladimir Putin, the German Stasi-spymaster, is now destroying what was a properous Russian success story.   What a curious nightmare.  

Russian terror troops are killing aged citizens in Ukraine city of Irpin, and are raping any women they can find.  Seriously.   Detailed eyewitness accounts are available, if one has the stomach to read them.

https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/russian-troops-ukraine-rape-kill/2022/03/23/id/1062546/

[ Mar. 22, 2022 ] - New War & New Weapons - We keep finding evidence for a significant breakthru in what are now termed:  "DEWs" - directed energy weapons.    With modern aircraft and spacecraft, you do not need to physically "melt" anything, you simply need to supply enough violent electrical energy transients (voltage "spikes") to the platform, to fully-disable the onboard computers and the servo-motors and/or their power supplies, which operate the control-surfaces of the aircraft or spacecraft.  

We suspect that there is a very small, but non-zero probability, that Chinese Flight MU5735, which appeared to dive vertically into the ground, may have been subject to this kind of attack - perhaps by accident.   Or possibly it was pilot suicide.   The aircraft entered a vertical dive from 29,000 feet, and in roughly 1 minute, 35 seconds, the aircraft had fallen 26,000 feet.  Video footage capture by a mining company security camera, shows an aircraft in a full nose-down dive, rapidly tracking vertically towards the ground.

There is evidence that DEWs (directed energy weapons) are in existence, which possibly could electrically "scramble" fly-by-wire aircraft controls. (Fly-by-wire means that there are no physical linkages to aircraft control-surfaces - the elevators, rudder and ailerons.  Wires connect to servo-motors, which provide electricity to control these motors, which then move these control surfaces, as the pilot moves the control wheel or joystick on the flight-deck.  Older aircraft had physical cables and pulley configurations, which would move the control surfaces in response to pilot control wheel or stick movements, and/or rudder-pedal movement.)

https://eurasiantimes.com/chinas-big-breakthrough-in-directed-energy-weapons-china-starlink/

As the above article indicates, the Chinese research in high-energy DEW technology is public knowledge.

The modern research on DEWs goes back roughly 42 years, and was begun seriously in the West by President Ronald Reagan.  (There were satirical comments of him as "President Raygun"),    But DEW technology is no longer in the realm of science fiction.  It is real, and is being battlefield-tested.   A US Defense Department report from September, 2021, (only 6 months ago), describes some of the existing and planned technology:

https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R46925

The ugly, brutal and senseless invasion of Ukraine, by a newly beligerent Russian Federation, under the personal control of what may be a madman with early-stage dementia, leads us to believe that there will now be *substantial* increases in military spending, by all nations.

If Chinese Flight MU5735 was shot down by a DEW - perhaps by accident - then it might explain the curiously awful final flight-profile.   As 737 pilots have indicated - a suicidal pilot would have to disable several systems, and work hard to maintain a vertical dive.      We could envision a scenario where a radar-guidence system and the linked DEW were under test, and with the system pointed skyward, unintended target acquisition occurred along with weapon activation.  The whole idea of DEWs is to be able to rapidly engage cruise-missile targets, and disrupt the missile in flight.

The horror of the destruction of that major shopping centre in Kyiv, by Russian terrorist forces, shows how awful cruise-missile assault can be, and demonstrates the importance of developing active measures to counter this kind of targeted terror weapon.

We are seeing 70 year-old "science fiction" war-stories come to life as an ugly reality.  It is curious how so many people seem to be oblivious to how seriously dangerous this new reality actually is.   War can now come from the sky, and be controlled and directed by small groups of very bad people, thousands of miles away. 

The whole world will thus become the battlefield.

[ Mar. 21, 2022 ] - Putin is a Terrorist & Must Be Ended - So many learned folks are saying Putin is becoming like Hitler - crazy, aggressive and dangerous.   But we disagree.  We think he is more like Osama Bin Laden.   He is a global terrorist of the first level now.   His actions have crossed into pure evil.  No additional analysis is required.  This is an ancient human problem, and it is often the reason for great wars.   No other choice is possible.

Early this morning, in Kyiv, Putin's terrorists destroyed a shopping centre, using cruise missiles. 

Reports indicate at least 8 people were killed in this terrorist attack.

Imagine the Eaton Centre in Toronto as a smoking ruin, with all the early-AM workers - young female shop clerks - lying dead or dying, inside the rubble and smoking debris.  You can see it all, on the BBC.

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-60802572

This is madness - but more importantly - it is pure, and simple *terrorism* of the very top level.   There is no military objective here.  The plan is to starve and terrorize the Ukrainian civilian population, and then move in with murdering shock-troops to steal the city.  We doubt this plan will work out.  London did not surrender to Hitler.   And we doubt that Kyiv will surrender to Putin.

Again, this is a very old, and very ugly model of brutal conquest.  Putin is the Nazi, and the world knows it.

Rubicon is crossed.   We - and by that, I mean the entire World Community - will have no choice, except a full-on war with Putin's murderers in control of the Russian Federation.   Putin is assuming Biden of the USA will sit still and do nothing.  This may be the case - but eventually, we will have to systematically destroy the Russian capacity to wage these kinds of "terror-wars" against those whom their disturbed leaders view as threats.  Biden may need to be replaced.  This may happen quite soon, we suspect.  Talk-talk-talk time is ending, and sanctions have never stopped anything.

We advise people to prepare their own plans, for a "nuclear winter".   It seems both unwise and simply unacceptable, that we share a planet with the murder-over-the-horizon killers of the Russian Military.   All Russia's military forces will have to be neutralized - there is really no other alternative possible.    RIght now, Ukrainian cities are burning.  Sadly, we are certain the war is certain to end with Russian cities burning.  This is sad.  I liked Russia, very much.

We have no direct knowledge of exactly what happened to that Chinese Boeing aircraft - except that it showed no evidence of structural failure, and appeared to make a vertical descending dive into the ground.  (We have seen the photos)  Perhaps it was a suicide by the pilot, or a terrorist-takeover of the flight deck.  Or perhaps a computer failure?   Our fear, of course, is that it was a test of a new Russian weapon system - and signal to China - not to assist the Americans.

The July 2014 downing of Flight MH17, is similar.  Portable missile launchers were used:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-48691488

If the plasma particle-beam weapons really do exist, and were deployed here, then this was a horrific but convincing demonstration of new capability.

It is possible that Russia - and it's 2000+ tactical and strategic nuclear weapons - is now in the direct control of a meglomaniacal madman - but one with sufficient ability to do massive damage to the future of our World.

We had thought the War would be with China.  Wrong.  China will be our *ally*.  The War will be with the Russian Gangster terrorists in control of the Russian Federation. 

Any action to remove or neutralize Putin and the persons who support his terrorism, seems to be indicated now. 

I don't want to live on a World, where some angry lunatic in Moscow can wipe out our shopping centres, destroy our food-supply-chains, kill our women & children, and hold the whole world hostage to his terrorist demands.  We must deal with this.  We must act.

This Putin person must have his command, control and communication capability terminated, his nuclear weapons destroyed on the ground, and he himself, must be personally neutralized - perhaps in the manner historical Russian leader Catherine the Great did with her cruel and abusive husband, Peter.

[ Mar. 17, 2022 ] - Western Military Forces Must Assist Ukraine Citizens - The Russian "negotiations" are fake.  Russian gangsters supporting Putin, are making no serious effort to negotiate at all. 

https://www.news24.com/news24/World/News/france-says-russia-pretending-to-negotiate-in-ukraine-talks-20220317

Putin truly is a war-criminal.   United Nations "PeaceMAKER" forces must enter this conflict and assist the legitimate Ukrainian Government.   The alternative is a perfect Holocaust that will stain history - especially Russian history -  into the far future, if not forever.   Putin's lies are only making the madness worse.   Our estimates - which are simple and easy to make - suggest that hundreds of thousands will begin to starve to death within one week.

There is no chance of any Russian benefits or "security improvements" that can come from this process, unless Russian forces engineer the mass-murder of hundreds of thousands of citizens, and reduce Ukraine to a giant forced-labour camp. 

This was done to Ukraine once before, under Stalin.  Over 1 million people were deliberately starved to death, after their property was seized.  To stand aside, and allow this kind of sadistic political-economic calculus to be carried out again, is not acceptable.

https://www.businessinsider.co.za/ukrainian-man-describes-life-in-russia-occupied-kherson-2022

We use our AI-technology for effective economic investment activity.  But the economics of this madness, can be well-estimated on the back of any envelope.   Russian forces are engaged in an attempt to engineer a very large mass-murder.   Again. 

For this to take place, in 2022, is just insane and unacceptable.

A great crime like this is worth risking a nuclear conflict for.    We cannot stand aside and allow this new Holocaust to continue.

I have a small wooden "Devushka" doll on my desk, (a "Милая девушка") given to me by a Russian friend and painted in bright colours, with a pretty face that is smiling.   I looked at her today, and I saw tears in her eyes.    Maybe the tears were mine.

[ Mar. 16, 2022 ] - Putin is a War Criminal Who Must be Destroyed - If we do not send military forces to help the Ukrainians, our leaders will be guilty also.  This is now becoming an event like the Holocaust - an insane, organized attempt to carry out illegal mass-murder, under the guise of bogus "military operations".   There are those of us, who will not stand for this.   Sanctions are insufficient.   The Russian "forces" in Ukraine must be vapourized.

https://www.news24.com/news24/World/News/they-are-so-young-corpses-pile-up-in-mykolaiv-morgue-20220316

The victims in Ukraine are us.   We are them.   This murder campaign will be ended, and Putin will rest in the grave of history, alongside Hitler, Goebbels and Himmler.

https://www.news24.com/news24/World/News/ukraine-says-its-launching-counteroffensives-against-russian-forces-20220316

[ Mar. 15, 2022 ] - Ukrainain War is A War for Human Freedom, Against Forces of Murderous Criminal Invaders - It is just so wrong, to stand aside, and let this independent nation of Ukraine be smashed and bombed by a brutal, powerful force of murderous invaders.  NATO is a non-issue, and if a nuclear-armed nation is now to use it's nuclear-weapons to blackmail the World, while it commits atrocities and mass-murder, then we must do more than just turn off their VISA cards.   We have no choice but to stand up to this illegal invasion & mass-murder madness.

We tell Putin:  "You launch, asshole, then we launch, also.  ALL your military dies, and you die too.  You *might* kill us, but you *will* kill Russia.  But we will not launch unless your forces do.  You fucking well know this.

Now, about Ukraine.  We are sending in troops to defend an independent nation, under attack by illegal invaders.  This is a "police action".   We are invoking:  "Escalate, to de-escalate."  Look it up, or ask an analyst.   This shit is stupid, cruel, and evil.   And it we are going to end it right now.

We had to do this during the Berlin Airlift.   If Russia uses nuclear weapons, then we will use nuclear weapons - either now or at some point in the future.   We all know this.

This invasion and military-murder shit must stop - pregnant women being murdered by the careful cluster-bombing of a Children's Hospital?! - this must fucking well stop, and if it does not, then maybe it is time for the nuclear weapons to come out, and bloody well be used, because we cannot share a planet with fucking murder-monster who is killing cities and our women in Ukraine.    Vladimir Putin - you were once a wise and honourable statesman.  But you have become an evil monster.  This stops - and we are going to stop it."

This is what we must say.  It is now the only sane choice.   If we let Ukraine fall, then I make a simple forecast:  All our weak political persons and "leaders"  that allowed this horror-show to happen, will be removed from power.  Every. Single. One.   And new, very angry, focused men and women will replace them, and then they will do the job.  Except the job will cost so much more to do, if we wait.   Deaths now, are measured in thousands.  If we wait, and do not oppose this Putin character now, then the deaths will be measured in the millions.

It's time.  Fucking hell - I am damn near Putin's age, and I would *pay money* for the privilage of going on project to destroy some of these criminal monsters invading Ukraine.  The world is just too small now, to let this sort of shit happen, without it being opposed by the good guys. 

If we don't put out this fire of madness now, it will - we are certain - burn up the whole World.

[ Mar. 14, 2022 ] - UN Military Forces Needed in Ukraine Now - Canadians & Americans Agree - A nightmare murder-machine is attacking a European Nation.  Europe and the World must stop it.  Wise men with experience now admit this truth.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/send-nato-troops-to-western-ukraine-russia-putin-tyrant-military-invasion-sanctions-11647195552

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/03/ben-rhodes-alexey-navalny-maria-stepanova/627049/

Here is what the defense of Mariupol looks like, from inside a Ukrainian APC (a BTR-4, an 8x8 wheeled vehicle, with 30mm rapid-fire gun).  They have the courage to fire on a T-72 tank (which they are no match for), but they reverse, and see a BMP. which our data says uses a 73mm cannon.  The Ukrainians rapid-fire on the BMP, and manage to destroy it.

https://youtu.be/9aR2XnMzFrg

 "Zed's dead, baby.  Zed's dead."

We must help these people.  Deus Vult.   Why?    See this BBC report:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60734706

It's not just that the Putin's Russians are carrying out this insane, barbaric mass-murder exercise - it is also that they are creating this monster lie-machine to try to mislead and dis-inform the world.   Putin has not just become a Nazi Hitler-clone, he has also brought Joseph Goebbels back from the grave.  For students of history, the absurd Russian official lies about the Putin War in the Ukraine is like seeing a horrible Nazi nightmare brought to vivid life - but with the Russians playing the part of the Nazi invaders.   This is madness, and it must be ended.

[ Mar. 13, 2022 ] - Bounty is Closer to $20 Million US Dollars, Now, for Removal of Putin - Here is a news item from several days ago, which is blocked on most social media and news sites, for legal reasons:

https://www.businessinsider.co.za/russian-businessman-puts-1-million-bounty-on-putins-head-2022-3

We have evidence that the bounty is now closer to $20 million, given the pledges by other affected individuals and those who are disgusted and extremely angry about the illegal and brutal terror campaign being conducted by Russian military forces in Ukraine acting on Putin's orders.

We stress that we would like to see Valdimir Putin arrested and put on trial for war crimes and the criminal use of Russia's national Defense Forces.   His actions violate the laws of all civilized nations, and he must be brought to justice, and his terrorist actions ended by any means possible.

We will commit $1000 CDN to this bounty effort, for any person or group which can arrest Putin for his war crimes, and/or neutralize him.   Russian tanks have driven over cars in Ukraine with unarmed civilian people in them.  They have shot at and killed civilian people driving in their cars.   Putin's terrorists have targeted, shelled and bombed Children's Hospitals, knowing exactly what they were doing (they have accurate ORION devices, a Russian GPS).   Russian operatives are kidnapping the elected mayors of occupied cities.  These actions are war crimes. 

The orders to do these criminal acts came from Vladimir Putin, the person that is acting in the role of President of Russian Federation.

If every angry person commits to pay at substantial amount to those who bring Putin to justice, we can get this bounty up to a very large number - perhaps into the billions of dollars.   Every angry person on Earth, should promise to pay at least $20 US, to the person or group of persons who neutralize Putin's abusive reign of terror, and bring this criminal to justice.

Putin looks like a hairless version of the German Knight in the 1938 film, "Alexander Nevsky".   Maybe he could be traded for soap.

[ Mar. 12, 2022 ] - Madness in Power - This was supposed to be an interesting-results blog, for our little research-consulting effort. We have built some good stuff that works.

Now, it seems to have become a kind of "Diary of Anna Frank" detailing the end-of-the-world as we know it.  We are seeing high-madness in action.  Ukraine must win it's fight, or Europe and maybe the World will be horribly damaged, far in to the future.   Like it or not, the World is now at war.  Most people don't even realize it yet.

Putin is going "all-in" with lies and terrorist violence - even abducting the mayor of a Ukrainian city.  Russian terrorists - acting for Putin - kidnapped the civilian Mayor of city of Melitipol, and put a plastic-bag over his head as they did it.  The man may be dead.  And this actually violates Geneva-convention agreements about not attacking civilian administrators during wartime - even Hitler's stormtroopers did not stoop to this kind of abusive, terrorist-style depravtiy.  They wanted to hold the lands they took.  Putin just wants to terrorize & destroy.

Russian representatives to the UN, are now telling absurd, made-up insane lies - to the world community at the United Nations - a forum that even Stalin respected.  The absurd pretext of "American weapons labs doing bio-research in Ukraine" is such an over-the-top whopper of a lie, that it proves beyond all doubt one of two things: 

1) Either the Russian administration of Valdimir Putin is simply insane, and is made up of insane people who are running on automatic control, or

2), Putin *really* wants a major war, and is prepared to engineer assault efforts against the whole world, regardless of the damage it does to Russia, it's reputation, and it's future.  He has chosen the path of terror, by careful calculation, and wants the violence to expand.

Russia had become a modern, honest, respected European nation.   Putin's willingness to destroy everything that the Russian people have created, shows the actions of a small inner group that wants war at all costs.  And it also shows the action of dangerous, delusional madman.

Modern Russia, attacking and destroying modern Ukraine - this is an act of madness and meglomaniacal absurdity, on par with United States attacking and bombing Canada, and it's cities.   It is senseless, absurd, abusive violence, for delusional self-satisfaction.  It makes no economic or military sense.  And it risks creating a future of hatred, warfare, and poverty.

The World's bizarre failure to actively assist the Ukraine nation - with United Nations troops and peaceMAKER efforts - shows that Europe and the USA have already surrendered to Putin's New Russian Fascism.    This is crazy.  Biden and Harris are so far out of their depths, that it is almost beyond belief.

Canada and the UK should consider exiting the NATO alliance, and offering direct military assistance - troops, aircraft and heavy-weaponry - to Ukraine, right now.  We can either stop this madness now - as a UN-sanctioned "police action",  or we can wait, until our own cities are burning with radioactive fire, and try to fight when half our soldiers are coughing up blood from the radiation sickness.  (But mark this:  We will fight.)

Putin's stormtroopers and terrorists must be neutralized, and Putin must be removed and put on trial for criminal acts.   NATO is irrelevant.  A weak nation is being attacked, and it's people murdered, by an invading strong nation.  The UN was created to prevent this viciously stupid evil shit from happening.   Time to get on it.  

[ Mar. 11, 2022 ] - Russian Tanks and Armored Vehicles Trying to Attack Regions Near Kyiv - But the Russian invaders were driven back by Ukrainian artilery fire and special assault technology.  The Russian audio conversations were monitored, and there is indication that the Russian regiment commander was killed.   Airborne monitoring devices (drones) recorded part of the battle, and it was published by Ukrainian military and uploaded to Youtube.  This is *not* Hungary in 1956 and it is *not* Prague in 1968.    And Ukraine is very much, not Iraq.

https://youtu.be/2P2lRZpYBWk

The Ukrainian lands look so much like Canada, that it is disturbing.  We see gas stations, shot up and tanks burning on 6-lane highways.   It looks like our homeland.    We find this Russian invasion to be the most outrageous act of military abuse that we have ever seen.  Imagine invading formations of heavily armed tanks trying to move down the Gardiner Expressway into Toronto, perhaps coming from a United States that has collapsed into a full civil-war.  This is just insane.   Russia should withdraw all it's forces now, before this spirals further (because it will, for sure, if they do not...)

Even if Putin's invading Russian military kill everyone in Ukraine, the spirited defense that the brave Ukrainian military is showing the world, will live forever in history.    The Ukrainians are showing courage and fighting spirit equal to the Spartans at Thermopylae in 480 BC, or the early Texans at the Alamo, in 1836.

The next step is probably to take this war to the invader's homelands.   Putin wants a war, and it is perhaps time for the World, to give him one.   Rather than just not buying their blood-oil, perhaps specific efforts could be directed towards Russian oil terminals and shipping facilities, airfields, weapons factories and missile launch sites. 

World War Three has actually begun.   Chatterbots and nonsense-talk and disinformational lies will not alter the facts on the ground.  What Putin is doing, is a perfect crime against all humanity, and it must be ended, by removing Putin and his Moscow gangsters by any means possible. 

The real President of Russia is Alexi Navalny.   Or someone in the United Russia Party.  Putin is no longer the legitimate, lawful leader of Russia.   He is just a common criminal who has carried out illegal mass-murder.

[ Mar. 10, 2022 ] - "World War III has likely already begun." - This was billionaire investor Bill Ackman's comments, and our research efforts quietly confirm this fact.   This will be a war like no other in history - but make no mistake, it is a full-on war now, and it has already started.  The deliberate shelling of a hospital in Ukraine's south, shows the focused, and direct intent of the Russian Terror Campaign in Ukraine.  The World is now at war with a nuclear-armed terrorist entity.   To our complete surprise - Russia has collapsed into being a terrorist Police State on par with ISIS and Hitler's Germany of the 1940's.   

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/billionaire-investor-bill-ackman-warns-181807581.html

The Russian people are not evil - and many thousands have been arrested and imprisoned for protesting this absurd and insane military-terrorist action.  

But we believe Ackman to be correct, in his judgement.

[ Mar. 9, 2022 ] - Crossroads War Crime - Astonishing security camera footage, of Ukrainian woman in car, stopping, and be shot by a Russian tank.  The use of thermo-baric exploding rounds is interesting.  The car first explodes and then implodes - one can see that the tires get shredded.  Most interesting.   This video proves that Russian tankmen were (are) explicitly targeting civilians.   The Ukrainian land and this tragic atrocity  looks so much like Canada landscape, and the Canadian countryside, that it is difficult for us as analysts and researchers to watch.   It shows the perfect nightmare monster that is now Russia.   This will go down in history as the "Crossroads War Crime".   If the world survives the coming "nuclear winter", teachers will show this video in schools, to show how the "Great War Against Evil", began.

https://youtu.be/K8BUNF9QCog

This "Putin War" is the most curious and astonishing atrocity we have ever seen.  In 15 days, Vladimir Putin has effectively destroyed Russia's economy and it's future, as his weirdly horrific monster military have committed mass-murder in Ukraine.   And for what gain?  To prove that they are the most evil monsters on planet Earth?   It's like our World has been attacked by murdering Martians or something.  As if inside Putin is a horrific monster made from a large, crawling worm.

This is truly the stupidest thing we have ever seen in our lives.  One of our analysts says simply that:  "Putin should kill himself.   He honestly might commit suicide, as a way out of this horror show.  He could 'go to God', and ask for forgiveness for being so foolish, violent and needlessly cruel."   This of course, assumes that the man still has some shred of honour remaining in his soul, which we now doubt.

His removal will take direct effort by honourable people, as he is without any honour at all.

[ Mar. 8, 2022 ] - Ukrainian Military Says: "Our Aim is True"  Here is a video, released by Ukrainian Military, of invading Russian Mi-24 helicopter gunship, flying low to avoid detection, March 5th.   This did not save the murdering invaders on board.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mLX66ewq8Sc

Footage was imaged from a aerial reconnaissance platform.  You might need to use this link:

https://youtu.be/mLX66ewq8Sc

Ukraine needs some Mig-29's.  Let's make damn sure they get them real soon.   And maybe the French could offer some Exocet's, for use in the Black Sea.

Escalate to de-escalate.  It's the only way.   Look it up.

[ Mar. 7, 2022 ] - Never Mind NATO.  It's Now Time for the UN to Act - Imagine if a group of bandits, 20 or 25 heavily armed, that were shooting up your farm property, and had set your barn on fire, and killed your daughter, and she was lying dead in the driveway.   You call the police, and they tell you:  "No, we can't come.  But we will turn off the VISA cards of the bandits who are attacking you, since we know their names.  We can try to send you some guns and ammo, maybe also.   Bye bye."

This is what USA and NATO are doing, basically.   It's absurd and idiotic.   If the United Nations is to survive, and not be just another sad historical footnote of failure, as the worthless "League of Nations" was, then it must now act.

Forget about NATO.  A Joint Force of Australians, Canadians, Japanese and British forces - with maybe some assistance from France, Germany and Poland, can simply move directly into Ukraine, and begin assistive military operations against the invading bandit force.   If Putin launches any nuclear weapons, than that means the USA can (and must) destroy all Russian military sites - completely - with it's nuclear weapons.   Putin knows this.

If Putin orders a nuclear strike against Europe or USA or Canada or anywhere, then we will just have to suggest that this would be unwise.   Note that Hitler NEVER used poison gas - not because he was trying to be a nice guy  - simple because he KNEW if he used gas, then England would use poison gas on German cities also.  Neither side used poison gas in World War Two.

The whole "Risk of Nuclear Armageddon"  is nonsense.     Neither side will launch nuclear.

But direct action now must be taken to assist Ukraine with direct military help.

This is the explicit responsibility of EVERY nation that is a member of the United Nations.  Ukraine has been a member of the Unitied Nations since it's beginning.   What Putin's bandit terrorist army is doing is insane and unacceptable.

Economic sanctions are both insufficient response, and unwise, since they will only hurt ordinary Russians.  Putin has already used them to strengthen himself, and the power of his personal gangster elite.

This madness must be DIRECTLY stopped by direct military intervention, by United Nations forces.  This has NOTHING AT ALL to do with NATO, which can simply stand by wait and watch.  But it requires a DIRECT UNITED NATIONS response now - regardless of what the chattering Americans say.   Maybe America can help, and maybe it will not.  Their leader-people are old, and seem to be confused and timid. 

A useful thing America could do, would be to arrest and imprison Donald Trump, for the murder of that Iranian General.  

America could send a message to the World, that death-squad style murders and the use of military forces to carry out gangland-style hits, is not acceptable use of national defense forces.

We *must* now bring back rule-of-law to international relations, before it is completely lost.

The assault on Ukraine is COMPLETELY AND ABSOLUTELY UNACCEPTABLE.   Those people are us, and we are them.   Their deaths are killing us.

Time for the United Nations to take direct, military action to assist a member-State that is under direct, illegal attack by murderous bandit forces acting in a terrorist capacity to attempt to destroy a legally-elected nation government.

This MUST be opposed, by ALL MEANS THAT ARE AVAILABLE.

Just trying to turn off Russian people's VISA cards, and offering the victims some military materiel, is not a sufficient response.   Economic sanctions just make people poor.  They do NOT STOP anything.

The invading, aggressor military forces, acting in a terrorist capacity to destroy a national government, must be opposed - and destroyed using direct, military action.  No action from NATO is required.   Perhaps South Africa and Argentina and Phillipeans - and other smaller UN member States - could contribute some military forces.  Maybe Norway and Sweden could contribute forces and equipment.

The idea that we simply have to stand aside and watch the Ukrainians get their cities shelled by Russian killers, and not come to help them, is a curious form of absolute madness.  It must be corrected, or "World War Three" is *certain* to begin, as other nations emulate this Russian gangster political model.

[ Mar. 6, 2022 ] - We Are Very Close to The Point of No Return - The idiotic lies and nonsense that Russia's Putin is spouting about the "nazification" of Ukraine shows clearly that the man may have just lost his mind - and seems to be wanting to make Russia become as insane also.   What is curious, is how effective the fear campaign in Russia has become, and how successful this absurd, great fraud has been.   No one can or will risk opposing Putin publically, despite *many* Russians believing the Putin War is tragic madness.  It will reduce Russia to real poverty, and destroy a neighbouring democratic nation.    To think that any benefit of any kind will result from this, is delusional madness of the very first order.

And the curious unwillingness of the United States or NATO  to actively assist democratic Ukraine, shows how deeply unwise the current crop of leaders in much of our world currently are.   

Direct economic warfare with Russia has already begun.  It will not end until Russia is fundamentally changed and Putin is taken down, destroyed, and his insane warfare stops.

The United Nations has curiously failed - rather absolutely  - as an organization.   It appears sadly worthless, just as the old talk-shop, the "League of Nations" was.  

This is not the first crisis the UN has faced since it was created.  But this one may destroy it.  It has not been able to do anything to prevent or stop the complete invasion and murderous military subjegation of an entire European nation, by a nuclear-armed, more powerful neighbour.  This is a tragic, absolute failure.

We have now effectively reached the point, where Europe and possibly North America also, will have to "escalate in order to de-escalate".   But if the leaders of the nation-states of Europe and North America continue to stand aside - we can safely predict that two outcomes will take place:  Firstly, a real recognition will be accepted by most people, that a new crop of political people will be needed - in virtually every Western country.   And secondly, the Russia Problem will define the political calculus in the West for the next several years - perhaps decades.

Armed conflict with Russia - at some point in the future - is now an absolute certainty.   We may have to wait 10 years, or maybe only 10 months  (or ten days?) - or, it may be ten decades.   But the current situation, where a Gangster State with over 2000 tactical and strategic nuclear weapons can carry out murder campaigns of this scale, and not be directly challenged or confronted, is simply not viable.

If the Western nation-states do not confront this problem, and deal with it now, then they will have to deal with it in the future, and the costs and extent of the actions needed to neutralize a murderous, nuclear-armed Russian terror state, will be of a vastly greater scale.

Simply put - we can stop this illegal military madness now, with a firm response.  We need only destroy an abusive and murderous (and small) Russian army, on non-Russian land.   But if nothing is done to assist the Ukrainian nation, and their country falls back to being a slave-state of Russian bandits and criminal overlords, then the eventual outcome will be major war with Russia that will risk the destruction of Russian cities - and European cities as well.   This is virtually a certainty.   

The weapons of choice may not necessarily be nuclear.  They may be different - perhaps bio-weapons or virus-agents or genetically-designed insects that carry disease and infect crops or food and water supplies.   We may be looking at a new 100-years of war, that goes on without end, for decades or even centuries.

It *MUST* be illegal for a strong nation to invade a weaker, smaller nation, and try to destroy it, as Russia is now doing to Ukraine.   Otherwise, *all* nations will simply have to militarize - and to an extreme and unlimited degree.   Every nation will have to develop a real plan to deal with the "Ukraine Scenario" - murderous invasion by a powerful, nuclear-armed neighbour.

Economic sanctions are wildly insufficient.  We predict they will have essentially no effect on Putin and will likely just play into his false narative, and strengthen his ability to control and destroy any opposition to his actions.   They will not achieve any positive result, we suspect.

Russian forces *must* be removed from Ukraine, under penalty of a massive bombing campaign carried out by every civilized nation, if they do not comply.  Forget about NATO.   NATO be damned.   NATO is not important, and it is not the key here.  This is just banditry, and if it is allowed to take place, without the other democratic nations assisting Ukraine, then all nations are put at extreme risk, and civilized world-order has simply ended.    And that fact will provoke a massive, permenant retrograde change in national thinking and planning, in every nation.

If Ukraine falls, Russia does not "win".  The whole Free World simply loses, Russia becomes poor and hated for the next 100 years, and every single nation will have to begin the process of actively removing "peace-talker" weak leaders, and replace them with strong, hard, focused warrior-leaders, and will have to initiate crash programs of extreme weapons-development.   The civil order that has prevailed since the end of World War Two, will have ended, and we will begin a long cycle of endless conflict and growing, unfocused, global hatred.

If you doubt this - just watch and see what happens.

It would be better to risk escalation (escalate to de-escalate) now, by smashing Russian invading forces in Ukraine, than wait until we have to take out Russian cities and harbours and factories, with massive bombing campaigns ( as was needed in World War Two, for example).

If the world allows Russia to succeed in it's Ukraine terror campaign, un-opposed by anyone but Ukrainian folks, then that is a much bigger escalation, which will likely destroy all Europe eventually - and perhaps even North America.

[ Mar. 5, 2022 ] - Open-Source War - It is pretty much impossible now to keep ugly, dangerous secrets.  And if your war or business model requires that a group of people keep a big secret, you will likely find your plans have high likelyhood of - if not failure -  then veering off rapidly into wildly unpredictable directions & results.

FD: We went long in the AM on Friday, because our best model went from down to flatline.  WHen that happens, it often means a hard (and fast) reversal.  We saw a tiny bit of that yesterday, and ended - with positions on (all in) and comfortably in the black. 

Very strange - and a tad unexpected, for me the human.  I acquired something from Troy, just to climb another learning curve.  Long discussions with a fellow from a firm close to the Centre, here in our northern wildland.  Still can't confirm if we are using the plasma things, but wow, it is getting weird.  If Putin attacks any NATO-land countries, we will automatically, based on treaty obligations, be at full-on war with the Russian Federation.   No guff.  And then - do we fry their aircraft?  If their military stuff all just stops working - do they go ape-shit, and just blindly launch? 

Our medical research suggests Putin has been using anabolic steroids for maybe over 30 years, and also probably HGH (human growth hormone), as well as some other newer med-tech, which can have seriously unclear long-term side-effects.   The side-effect every steriod-use case study seems to suggest, is the "roid-rage" phenomenon, and doctor's already caution that the hardcore boost to muscle-building due to testosterone-replacement, explicitly increases a willingness to take outsized risks, and also increases male aggressive behaviour.  

A lot of the weird, over-the-top behaviour seems to be explainable by chemical-induced action, combined with the natural psychological and physical effects of male aging process.  (Putin was born in 1952, and will soon turn 70 years old.)   All guys get a bit weird at this age - more sensitive and also more easy to anger.   Putin has no one anywhere to tell him he is being insanely self-destructive, like an out-of-control medieval king, in so many ways.  He has no wife, and no friends to tell him he is killing the future of Russia.

Our policy people perhaps want to be careful not to assume that economic sanctions will have much effect.   As we already cautioned - and has now been demonstrated by the explicit criminalization of free-speech in Russia - he can and will turn the sanctions into simple strategies that will allow him to assert explicit (and crazy dangerous) personal control of the actions of the Russian State.    We consider this to be a very bad outcome and situation.

The arrest and imprisonment - on bogus, trumped-up charges - of Alexi Navalny, should have warned us all that Russia was already wildly off the rails of rational and fair, legal procedure.   And all the things that many Putin critics have asserted, have been confirmed.

It would be best if the Russian military simply arrested him, and handed him over to the European Court of Justice, for trial for using the Russian Defense Forces for personal, political purposes.

The policy advisors and leaders of the Free World should communicate this idea, and suggest that if this action were taken, the sanctions that have been applied could be quickly lifted, and economic assistance would be given to both sides to repair the tragic damage that has been done.

The Free World should also communicate that failure to address the Putin Problem, risks serious global warfare, and unlimited, **automatic** military escalation, which soon each side will find difficult to control.  We know this, as this is what happened in both World War One and World War Two.   After major illegal actions & invasions took place, the whole world was **automatically** and irreversably at war.

And each time, many millions of lives were lost - and also purposefully destroyed.

It would be ***very wrong*** to interpret the Free World's lack of immediate action, as a characteristic of weakness.   We have confirmed (it turns out) that this restraint is a direct result of our common knowledge of just how automatic (and destructive), a modern global war, is certain to be.

Russia needs to withdraw from Ukraine, and they need to do it now.  They are playing Russian Roulette with the future of the whole world, and the revolver's hammer is going to drop on that chamber with the live round in it, very soon, if they keep repeatedly pulling the trigger like they are now doing.

[ Mar. 4, 2022 ] - We Really Need to Act Here.  Others Agree.

Action - direct action to assist Ukraine is indicated.  We are already running a global war now.  Ukraine is the current front lines.  Let's recognize this clearly, and not be foolish.  This is clear and true:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1499442168699760643.html

The NATO forces have stood aside - but that does not mean that Europe and other nations have to.  Look at a USA 100-dollar bill.  That guy there - Ben Franklin - what did he do that was most important?  He convinced France to help small, weak USA Colony fight for it's freedom.   A fight for freedom and democracy is the requirement of every democratic, free nation.

Of course NATO officially has to say no, we are not helping:

https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/nato-reject-ukraine-no-fly/2022/03/04/id/1059637/

But that does not mean the Free World has to limit it's actions to economic action.

Even Canada could send a few CF-118's, and call Putin's bluff.The current approach, where the world stands by and offers no help - is unwise.  History teaches this, very clearly.

Update-B: Just when you thought it might not get worse, of course, it does. Ukraine's largest (and Europe's largest) nuclear plant has been attacked by Russian invaders, and is burning.  (8:55 pm, Eastern Standard Time)

Putin is quite possibly a drug-damaged madman.   If the reactor explodes due to a meltdown, or a super-critical event or a Fukushima hydrogen/oxygen fireball explosion - radioactive debris and dusty fallout may drift over Europe - again.   Another Russian gift to Europe?

Are you Euro-folks going do anything now, perhaps? Perhaps now it is time to act?   Maybe it's time to come to the defense of Ukraine, call Putin's madman's bluff, and neutralize the Russian invaders?  Or will you live forever hostage to the actions of a nuclear-armed drug abuser?   

Less talk.  More action needed, perhaps.  We liked Moscow, and St. Petersburg.  There are these lovely Monet paintings at the Hermitage.   It would be a shame if those lovely Russian cities were destroyed. 

The key to avoiding bad war outcomes, is to be strong, not to be weak.  Oppose Russian crazy-bad actions now, and encourage regime-change in Russia, and we can maybe restore peace and sanity.  But sit and do nothing, and this insane ball-of-foolish-destruction will just start rolling downhill faster.   

---

Update-A:  More research - we believe Putin is on serious levels of anabolic steroids, and what we may be seeing has the popular term: "roid rage".    These insane assertions of "genocide" against ethnic Russian speakers is perhaps coming from this drug-related mental breakdown.   There is simply no evidence of Ukraine attacking ethnic Russian speakers.  It just appears to be a weird, made-up pretext.   This is just nuts.   Completely bonkers.  Putin has gone crazy.

---

A No-Fly zone must be established over Ukraine - RIGHT NOW.

This is not just our view, as analysts and scientists - this is also the view of wise people who know what they are doing.  If the United States does not assist in this effort, it has failed Europe,and this will be a serious error.

https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/wesley-clark-putin-ukraine-russia/2022/03/03/id/1059426/

There is time for talk, and a time for action.   Putin must be confronted, and if he is not, he will continue to murder.   This Ukraine Invasion is illegal.  It is the reason that the United Nations and NATO exist - to counter this kind of insane threat.  If Putin launches a nuclear weapon, then we simply must respond.

But Russia's nuclear arsenal must not be used to hold the World hostage to the grim dictates of a madman.

The time for action is NOW.  If USA will not assist, then it falls to UK, France and Germany to act as one single entity, and do the job.

Putin is reportedly crafting a plan to shell his own towns in the border with Ukraine, and use this as a pretext to significantly escalate the war.  US defense intelligence knows this, and now so does everyone else.  

You cannot keep secrets anymore, and you cannot lie like Lavrov and Putin do, and expect to be believed.

The Putin War in Ukraine is our war.   It must be fought successfully.  Now.

People who know about this in detail, say the same things as we do.

Economics - as of March 4th, 2022:

 ************      **** Full Disclosure ****

We have five different models, and they are all pointing down.  Seriously.   We liquidated positions in our trading portfolio. 

We suggest that one review the comments by Mohamed El-Erian, a fellow who guided us all wisely thru the 2008 USA Housing-Bubble/Financial Crisis.  His short note was found on the Bloombergquint site.  He makes a very good series of points.  He says the market cannot escape this Putin War in Ukraine, and we believe he is correct.   The current bullish frisky action of the market, is not healthy, and we believe it bodes badly for the future.

https://www.bloombergquint.com/gadfly/russia-invasion-of-ukraine-global-markets-and-economy-can-t-escape

If Ukraine is defeated, then Putin will be even more dangerous than he is now.

This Russian criminal action must be stopped now, by whatever means are necessary.

Failure to act with focus and clarity, will cost the World it's future peace and security.   Just study history of Europe, if you doubt this basic truth.

****************

Global Credit Events Possible:

We note the market seems to be wildly under-estimating the costs of the expected path of events here, and the non-quantifiable risks associated with the transition down this (most probable) possible path.

Many market participants perhaps feel they are adequately provisioned for what lies ahead.  But we are entering a world now, where roughly 1/5th of the planet has just been financially vapourized already.   All those folks that think they have CDS's and swaptions and various types of puts and such, which are going to pay-off in the case of various credit-events, (and payment-failure events) may find that they simply will not get paid.

And we have *already* played the game of ramping up the USA money supply (the global reserve currency) to many ten's of trillions of newly minted dollars, to address the Covid-19 pandemic.

What we are now programmed for is a "crash-flation" scenario, the likes of which have never really been seen.   We note there is a real possibility of wildly rising prices of some critical commodities, the collapse of demand in whole economic sectors, and payment-linkage and other credit-connected lockups occuring.  

This is not just a "big costs" scenario, this is the technical result of losing a very large chunk of the planetary economy - in a very sudden and complete way.   Russia was actually doing rather well, and things were looking pretty good.   Real wealth was being created and distributed out over their whole economy, and direct financial and trading linkages were global, and were working well.   All this is now stopped.  It's gone.   And until Putin is either removed, or he commits suicide or something like that (which we view as very unlikely), the Russian economy is now basically on Mars.   It's just been removed.

Anyone doing any business at all, with Russia, is simply not likely to get paid, unless they want to take bitcoin or physical gold or worthless Rubles, as their payment.  This sanctioned economy is off-limits, and this is simply a fact.  There is not enough money to be made, buying anything from, or selling anything to, Russia now, to justify the extreme risk of not being paid, that one would be taking on.

Look at a map of the Globe.   Russia is simply *gone* -  an actual zombie-financial entity that just died, yet still keeps trying to stagger along, howling weird nonsense.

Except this big financial zombie has nuclear weapons, and the top hairless howling zombie has threatened to use them.    This is where we are right now.

Yet the market is pretending this is not actually a problem.

We are - certain - that the market has not done an adequate job of discounting this risk.

And again, if one inspects the historical record, one sees that this is not an uncommon phenomenon.   The world gets bad leaders, the nations do very bad things, and everyone goes crazy.  The French Revolution - and the rise of Napolean is one example.  So is Hitler's rise in Germany, and Stalin's rise in Russia, and also Mao's "Cultural Revolution", in whch China destroyed the lives of an entire generation of it's young men and women.

No-one thinks the madness and the war will really happen, until the bombs start falling, buildings start burning, and people in the house next door are lying out on the street in little bloody pieces, after their house was hit.  Or have been dragged away by Gestapo blackshirts to be killed in Death Camps.  Or have been arrested by Stalin's KGB to become an "unperson" and die in a gulag.   Or hung in the "jet-plane" position by Mao's "Red Guard" monsters, and beaten to death with bamboo sticks.   Humans are able to do great harm to their own people.  This is - sadly - how human society often operates.

And by that point - with the markets closed - it is usually already too late to re-position one's trades.

We believe we found the source of Vladimir Putin's madness. He was a KGB operative when young, and worked in Germany, this we know. The KGB and the MfS was very successful at hacking and hurting any group or persons that were seen to *threaten* the GDR "Socialist" gulag-state. East-Germany was essentially a giant prison, lets be clear about this. I saw it first hand, at this timeframe. It was almost beyond human belief, that something so insane could actually exist. In order for this huge prison to exist and operate, it needed a significant and very professional group of spys and social-control operatives, to keep all free thought and expression surpressed. The KGB and the MfS were very successful at doing this, and the Mitrokhan Archive describes - in some detail - exactly how this was done, right down to very organizational details. It is amazingly educational reading. The KGB and the MfS were sophisticated, impressive machines of terror and control.

But they had - according to the detailed notes from the Mitrokhan Archive, which we believe to be accurate - one notable failure. They were quite unable to infiltrate the Ukrainian Nationalist Organization. They wrote reports about agents who tried to do this, but buried deep in notes related to Russian-German technical "tradecraft" and other terms (literally a dictionary of terms) - we found this little gem: The KGB and MfS had no success at this.

We suspect that, Putin, a high-intelligence perfectionist, is obsessed with defeating Ukrainian Nationalism, given this failure from his first real job. We all remember our first efforts - and it is the *failures* that haunt our memories, as we age and remember them.

We suspect this early failure, has become an "idée fixe" for Vladimir Putin, and that he is determined to crush Ukrainian Nationalism at all costs, because he sees it as a personal failure. This makes him both very ill, and very dangerous.

See: https://www.britannica.com/art/idee-fixe

And: https://digitalarchive.wilsoncenter.org/document/112824

This also explains Putin's curious conflation of "Nazi-ism" and the honest, obvious desire Ukrainians have for national self-determination. For Putin's now badly warped mind, "Nazi-ism" and "Ukrainian Nationalism" are the same thing, as both were direct targets of KGB & MfS operatives. Each were "enemies of Socialism". This offers explaination how Putin can make the obviously insane assertion, that a Jewish President Zelenskiy of Ukraine is somehow a "Nazi".

We believe there is a high probability that Putin is in the intermediate stages of a senile dementia, exacerbated by long use of anabolic steroids, and is determined to correct the embarrassing failures of his youthful work, even if it means the destruction of the impressive Russian economic progress, and possibly the Russian State itself.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is a criminal act, on par with the worst actions of Hitler and Stalin.

The military machinery of the nations of this World, should be committed immediately to neutralize this illegal aggression, as it both violates Ukrainian sovereignty, and also emboldens an extremely dangerous madman.

We must not wait. Call it a: "police action". There is critical work needed, right now.

A Destroyed Russian rocket-launcher, which we think is a "BM-21", a 40-tube platform for 122mm rockets. Two dead invaders can be seen, their young lives cut short by Putin's idiotic, criminal invasion of Ukraine. This image from Kharkiv, Feb. 25, 2022. Photo is credited to: Maksim Levin.

These BM-21 launchers are mounted on Ural-375 6x6 trucks, and can fire up to 40 high-explosive rockets within 30 seconds. They are an effective, lethal, low-tech weapon of mass-murder, especially when used against civilian populations. Vladimir Putin is a war criminal of the most extreme. The Ukrainian Military is fighting hard, and with no direct military help from any other nation, to defend it's Democracy. They deserve our support and assistance.

REMOVE RUSSIA FROM THE SWIFT FINANCIAL SYSTEM NOW! EMBARGO ALL IT'S FUNDS, BLOCKADE ALL IT'S PORTS.

It is Vladimir Putin and his gangster elite that is making this ugly war on Ukrainian and European Democracy.

Putin is now as dangerous as Hitler was, and he must be neutralized immediately. No business with ANY Russian entities should be allowed, by anyone on this planet. This murder vehicle, and these dead Russian boys whose lives were wasted on this stupid, cruel insane assault against a lightly armed neighbouring democratic nation, are the true face of Vladimir Putin's horrific Great Lie.

"Fuck You, Russian warship!" Words that will go down in history, and echo for the next 1000 years...

I have not been a fan of our Prime Minister Trudeau, but when a man does the right thing, he should be recognized for it. This is a good action, and is not just a gesture.

Good weapons, and human courage is sometimes all it takes, to win the battle. It is good to see Canada step up, and take a stand. It is very good, indeed.

I hope these weapons can be used to neutralize many of the criminal invaders, and allow some parts of Ukraine to remain strong and free. Remember: Strong goes with Free. There is no such thing, as "Weak and Free", understand?

(I am wondering if we sent the Ukrainians any of those wild (and supposedly secret) particle-beam weapons? They're supposed to be oh-so-secret, but the chit-chat is that we got the crazy things to actually work. And we keep hearing these funny rumors that they actually work quite well. The rumors of course, could all be bogus. Sounds too much like "Ghostbusters" to me... wearing a portable cyclotron on your back, maybe? Crazy idea. But if they work, and can be linked to optical sensors (ie. no radar signature), then one could just clear the sky of aircraft, drones, and maybe even incoming missles? Like that old video-game: "Missile Command." I remember the orders that the player received at the beginning of each game: "Defend Cities." All good orders are short, sharp and clear. It would appear that this is what the Ukrainians are now trying to do. The SPQR menu item has info on the Laser-based anti-aircraft system, but the particle-beam thing is supposed to work a lot better. Raytheon Laser system: http://www.gemesyscanada.com/442273167 )

We really should be blockading all Russian ports-of-entry, and also we should TURN OFF ALL THEIR ACCESS TO SWIFT - the financial money-transfer system. Biden was too weak take this correct action. And we must de-orbit the ISS. It's mission is over anyway.

Maybe next week...

Also, I wonder how much food, the invading Russian soldiers brought with themselves? We understand that Kyiv residents were advised to put rat-poison into various foodstuffs that they left in their empty apartments, if they left town. I wonder if they really did that?

Spring is Coming. There will be storms.

Putin's military has invaded Ukraine. This is a very bad decision by a very bad man. Putin must be removed, and it is appropriate that military support be offered to the Ukraine Government, and it's people.

Putin has proven to be a liar, a fraudster and a thug, on par with Hitler of the 1930's. This is unfortunate. If this ugly military assault succeeds, Xi will probably try to move against Taiwan.

We are not confident that any meaningful action will be taken by American or European Governments, as they have shown a tragic willingness to appease the various Russian aggressions, when ever these have happened in the past.

The citizens of the Free World will have to decide where and when we will stand up to the liars, murderers and abusive totalitarian regimes that threaten our World.

History has shown it is better to stand up to thugs and political gangsters early on, rather than wait for them to become established and dominant.

It is better to destroy criminally abusive invading armies, rather than wait, and have to destroy cities and nations.

It seems that History has not ended. It appears that the choices we made, the conflicts we endured, and the victories that were achieved at such great costs - all these will have to be all undertaken and endured again, otherwise the forces of darkness and repression will determine and define the future. If that happens, the World will face endless war and tragic, abusiive violence by criminals in control of governments.

If we are to have a future for Freedom and Democracy, then it has becomes clear: We shall have to fight for it.

Each citizen in the Free World, will have to decide what role he or she will play, and how the dark forces of abuse, violence and political gangsterism will be defeated.

If we are to live in Freedom, and with Truth and Justice as our companions, then we have no other choice possible.

We must select strong, honest and truthful people as our own leaders. They must be willing and able to unify our own Free Democratic people, support our allies, and use our military power against our enemies - not our own people.

We need to stand united, and defiant against the darkness and criminal assault that totalitarian regimes and dishonest political gangsters represent.

The Ukraine invasion shows what happens, when criminal gangsters like Putin are appeased by the weak, dishonest leaders in our own lands.

The Time for Change has now arrived. Dark forces now threaten the whole world. Each person will have to decide which side he will be on.

We urge each to choose the path of Freedom, Truth and Justice. The forces of darkness, repression and cruelty can be crushed. We know this, because we have seen it done - by our parents and our grandparents.

The nations of the Free World fought for Freedom and Democracy and Justice in the past. It seems we must do this again, in order to secure the future.

Notes of Note - 2021-2022

Vladimir Putin is not just a cruel & dishonest fraudster, he is also an Osama Bin Laden-style air terrorist. This image shows an unarmed Ukrainian Antonov Transport aircraft, that was shot down by hostile Russian military invaders on the first day of the Ukrainian Invasion. A reward should be offered for Putin's capture, as was offered for Bin Laden's.

If serious and powerful weapons must be used, then so be it. Putin is now a profound threat to world security, and he must be neutralized.

[ Mar. 2nd, 2022 ] - NATO must "Put on it's Big Boy Pants and fight": Retired General Russel Honoré.  We Agree.

The NATO organization was formed to deal with exactly what is happening.  Why the hell is Ukraine having to fight this murderous military assault against it's entire nation, without any direct military help from the organization that was formed and funded explicitly to deal with exactly this kind of brutal, bloodthirsty aggression?

https://www.newsmax.com/us/russel-honore-nato-nuclear-deterrent-military/2022/02/28/id/1058950/

This is insane.  The sactions mostly will hurt ordinary Russian citizens, and make them suffer and fill them with hate.  This is probably Putin's plan.   He thinks he is clever.   He will assume full, Hitler-style control in Russia (he already has now), and he will then use his nuclear weapons against the West.  

Why is NATO - and the rest of Europe - not engaging this perfect evil situation RIGHT NOW?  Biden of USA and the American Democrats are just pathetic.   The NATO alliance was specifically crafted to deal with this kind of murderous, illegal Russian madness - AND THE TIME TO STOP THIS ASSULT IS NOW, and not wait until this fool's nightmare is larger and even more completely insane and out of control.

Putin wants this current outcome, we have determined.   He wants to erase the internal threat of 100,000 young, healthy Russian boys - by getting them killed.

He WANTS a collapsed and broken Russia - so he will be able to exercise complete, military authority over the whole damaged country - and then turn *all* it's production to military goods, and have justification for much greater escalation.

Biden and European powers are being completely misled, and are wildly missing the very clear and extreme threat that Putin has become.  

Putin WANTS to have his current small army crushed and defeated in Ukraine, and he wants Russia bloodied and broken, so he can have complete control over it, and use the new "State of Emergency" to completely crush and kill anyone or any group that opposes his control.  And then build a BIG army.

What exactly is wrong with Western military and defense analysts that they do not grasp this?

If Vladimir Putin really wants to have his current army crushed and destroyed in Ukraine - so he can then militarize fully & attack Europe and take back what he feels - in his twisted world view - are the states and lands that Russia lost when the Soviet Union broke up into free, democratic states, then we are only at the very beginning of this crisis.

We've just realized that this might REALLY be a scenario Putin wanted -  the defeat and destruction of a violent crop of young Russian men - as they are the ones who were most likely to take to the streets to oppose his brutal dominiation & militarization of Russia.

We should not be putting sanctions on Russia, without explaining EXACTLY to the Russian people how they can have the sanctions REMOVED, and restore prosperity and sanity into their lives.   We might be giving this crazy new 'Ivan the Terrible" exactly the scenario that he wants, if we do not see that Putin and his inner circle of elite of gangsters is the true enemy - not all the Russian young adults.

We are pretty sure about this.   Biden is a lightweight, and the US military and the entire NATO alliance is sitting on it's arse, playing with itself, while a 40-million person, European democracy is being blasted by insane Russian bombing.   This must be made to stop.

General Russel Honoré is completely correct.  NATO needs to act NOW, and send major troops - European Troops, not American soldiers - into Ukraine in defense of that nation - and also communicate that Russian troops in Ukraine should TURN AROUND and JOIN NATO troops, and join in an joint military assault on where-ever Vladimir Putin is hiding.

The world needs to make it clear that Putin and his Gang are the enemy here.   We do not want a broken, defeated and crushed Russia.  We want simply an arrested Vladimir Putin.   Russia can be restored to health - if the sickness of Vladimir Putin is removed, like the cancer it has become.

All the troops in Poland and the Baltic States should move into Belarus - and indicate that they are taking action to install the honestly elected government in that nation, and are seeking only the arrest and detention of Lukashenko, for war crimes.   They should ask for the direct assistance of the Belarusian population - and the appeal should be made by the Belarusian "Government in Exile".

There is a real clear reason why Putin destroyed the Kyiv TV transmitter tower.  He lives by the lie and by his actions of terror.  He has nothing else to offer now, and once folks are told this truth, we will have a real chance at regime-change in Russia - and an end to this insane war.

The future-critical war that NATO was built for, has now begun, and it is the most important task in the world - right now - that Russian military aggression be stopped, and that Putin be located and arrested for is crimes.

Russians should be told that ALL SANCTIONS WILL BE LIFTED once Putin is arrested, and the War in Ukraine is ended.   

This current approach is not wise.  The economic sanctions to "weaken" Russia will simply play directly into Putin's hand, and put him into a stronger position of military authority, unless Russians understand that a return to sanity is still possible, if the top gangster is removed.

Two things must happen:   NATO must act, and Russians must be made to understand that there will be GREAT ECONOMIC BENEFIT if and when, Putin and his inner gang of criminals, are taken down.   The USA, England, Canada and Europe should send this message out CLEARLY.

And in Ukraine, each Russian lad that drops his weapons and surrenders, should be assured of fair treatment, and not abused.  Each Ukrainian soldier should be told he will be given land, serious money and a good post-war life, if he can defeat the enemy.

But mostly - European forces - call them what you will - should simply come to the defense of Ukraine - and THEY SHOULD DO IT NOW, and make it clear that the enemy is PUTIN and not Russia itself.  And this goes also for Belarus.

Lukashenko and Putin will otherwise stand as evil little dictators, on their mountains of dead citizens, and declare themselves to be "War Leaders", and half of the World will be thrown back into slavery and failure and pain - all of which is unnecessary.

Get your pants on, NATO!  The bells are ringing.   It's now time for action - not weak words from old men who can only read speeches.  And limitless sanctions only hurt the Russian people, and will make cruel Vladimir Putin into a worse military-enabled monster than he already is now.

https://www.newsmax.com/us/russel-honore-nato-nuclear-deterrent-military/2022/02/28/id/1058950/ 

[ Mar. 1st, 2022 ] - Bipolar World Again- Putin truly is insane - he rants about Ukraine being "nazified" - except the Zelenskiy, the courageous leader of Ukraine that Putin's terrorist army is trying to kill - is Jewish!   Putin is a madman, and apparently, an honest-to-god hitler-clone.   The European Democracies need to send direct military support - at least some air-cover - to Ukraine right now.  A good action would be destroy the many-mile long invasion convoy north of Kyiv.

It would also be a very good time for forces to move against other political criminal entities - as Russia's forces are committed to the Ukraine occupation attempt.   A small, rapid movement into Belarus from Poland and the Baltic states, would likely be successful.  It could be short, sharp and fast, and would catch Lukashenko's army from the backside - and deliver the necessary corrective action.  The honest folks who actually won the elections in Belarus, could then take their rightful place as the local government.  

We have returned to the tragic, bipolar world of long ago - a world divided between the good-guys and the bad-guys.   This is very, very sad for folks in Russia, and the future of Russia.  And the fear is that Putin WANTS it this way - by degrading the Russian economy, he can assume absolute power, and by arrangeing for a large segment of Russia's young men to be killed, he can ensure no large public demostrations or riots can be organize by angry youth, to topple him.

He is at war with his own nation, as much as he is at war with Ukrainian people.  It is just insane - yet it will benefit his sense of control and feed his desire for absolute power.

So, we are back to the 1950's - a world of nuclear-armed standoff, with a very dangerous, and heavily-militarized Russia.   Except that we are now going to see some serious inflation - yet it will be possible for Europe and North American market-makers and governments, to blame the inflation on the war-action, because that will truly be the source of much of it now.

Stocks are probably the best place to have assets, if an inflation is allowed to continue - at least for the next six to twelve months, as the real hard-core inflation gets established.

It would be good to see Germany fully militarize again.  The German leader, Olaf Scholz, has realized that Russia cannot be trusted to act rationally, while Putin remains in control of that country, and has completely (and very wisely) reversed German neutrality.  Weapons and assistance are actively being given to the Ukrainian government under seige.   Scholz also realizes that a massive military expenditure increase is needed (over $100 billion USD), and will also probably have to reverse the decision to shut-down German nuclear reactors.    Probably the Germans will need to build NEW nuclear reactors, if they want to move away from a gas-burning economy, to one that runs on electricity.   You cannot power an industrial nation with wind-generators and solar power - it is just not enough, and not reliable. 

So, we will have a massive build-up in military and nuclear technology - and probably a strong stock market, as the West begins the process to also convert itself to a war-stimulated economy. 

Eventually, we will have to go to war with Putin's forces, yet at the same time, try to protect and help the Russian people, like we did in 1998.

This will take money and effort and hard decisions will have to be made.  North America - and Europe - will have to militarize, and develop plans to counter and defeat the Russian Threat.  

It's like a bad copy of a Le Carre novel - with Karla having actually siezed control of Russia, becoming Covid-19 infected, having a mental breakdown, and starting World War Three.

Really - the wise thing to do, would be fully support Ukraine, destroy the Russian military, and then have the UN oversee honest elections in Russia.  But Old Man Biden is not going to do that, and Olaf Scholz has to first spend $100 billion upgrading his military.  It would be good to see a meeting of Macron of France, Boris Johnson of the UK and Scholz of Germany - let Biden stay home and play with his wokey-wonky types.  They should have the meeting in Warsaw, and invite the Polish leaders also.

Europe has a problem.  Mobilization needs to be considered.    Putin *really* wants a war with Europe - we know, because he has already started one - and perhaps it is possible to give him one that is not so one-sided.   If he launches nuclear weapons, then we can solve the Russia Threat problem right away, in just a few minutes.   And he knows that.

What is curious, is that the coming inflation, and the massive military build-up that Western nations will now be undertaking, will actually boost the Western markets substantially.

Crazy times - but lets see if we can fast-foward this whole process, to the scene where Putin shoots himself in his bunker.

[ Feb. 28, 2022 ] - Vladimir Putin is a War Criminal - and the Enemy of the Future. - There can be no greater crime than this crime that Vladimir Putin is now guilty of - the attempted mass-murder of an entire nation.   Intelligence reports (which we belive to be accurate) suggest his is "willing" to lose 50,000 Russian troops - young men who will be sacrificed to Putin's bloated, horrific ego.    This is madness - but it is the madness of Adolf Hitler or "Vlad the Impaler" of old Hungary, or of terrorists like Osama Bin Laden.  Mass-murder becomes simply a form of political calculus.  Let's be clear:  By arranging for 50,000 or more young, healthy Russian lads to be killed, he removes the possibility of 50,000 young, healthy protesters, knocking him off his bloody throne.

The man's evil actions actually are commonplace, in the history of our sad world.   And it is this simple fact, that makes him and his gangster elite, the most dangerous men on Earth right now.  

It is tragic to see the American President play with himself, as he plays silly, race-based games with the American legal system.   No on cares - except a lunatic-fringe of American Leftists - what colour the skin is of a top, supreme-court judge.   But Biden focuses on this foolish exercise (as does the American left-leaning media), as the beginning of World War Three is slowly being put into place and magnified. 

Europe itself is under direct military attack from Russia.  This is the truth of things.

BP, the big UK energy company, has just abandoned - written off as a total loss - it's 20% ownership stake in Rosneft, the largest Russian oil company.   This is a massive 25 billion US dollar loss for BP shareholders - a huge amount of honest, private wealth that has just been vapourized (and stolen, by the Russian company, basically - so you see why the Oligarchs can support the Putin mass-murder exercise in Ukraine.  They think they are being clever.

But Ukraine is being killed by invading terrorists.

And the world stands by, with it's hands in it's pockets, and does so very little to help them.

Unless Putin is taken down - by a missile strike, or by a popular uprising, or by a co-ordinated Russian internal police-action (it matters not how it is done), then there will certainly be an expansion of this ugly conflict.

This abusive and horrific assault of the entire Ukrainian people, should be considered as a full-on "first-strike", and all weapons - all weapons of all kinds - should be targeted at Russia, and a 24-hour time limit given for Putin to stand down, otherwise be neutralized.

The tragic weakness (and "wokeness") of Joe Biden and his fiddling-while-Rome-burns actions and race-based game-playing, will cost the entire Free World it's future.

Ukraine should immediately be granted EU and NATO membership, and all the military forces of the Free World should be directed at Russia if it does not withdraw it's forces within 24 hours.

Putin is a coward and commonplace gangster-style "Liar Leader" .   These types appear again and again, and history has proven that nothing they say can be trusted, and only direct military action against them, can be effective.  These types must be neutralized because of the horrific risks they represent.  

The actions of "Liar Leaders" like Vladimir Putin don't just kill nations and murder innocent children - their actions explicitly kill the future for the whole world.

Vladimir Putin is the enemy of all mankind.   Really.

[ Feb. 27, 2022 ] - Appeasement & the Political Suicide of Donald Trump - Wow.  We are seeing madness we never thought we would see.  Donald Trump has called America "Stupid", and has praised Putin as "Savvy" at a meeting of "conservative" types in USA. 

What exactly are American conservatives trying to conserve?  Foolishness?  Madness?   It boggles the mind, really.   Trump appears to have commited political suicide.  If Mitt Romney or some sane person, is not chosen to be the Republican candidate, then the Democrats will be able to field a deaf, dumb, blind, crippled and crazy old dead guy (maybe they will??), and still get him elected.   No one of any integrity or honour or even basic intelligence or sanity, could support Putin.  Putin is a vicious, dishonest "zalupa"  (just google it...)

So, Trump is now toast.  Curiouser and curiouser... world going mad, it seems.

Here is a note about "Appeasement".  We are very likely now seeing the beginnings of World War Three (maybe even "World War Zee", given all those Russian tanks with "Z" on their sides...)

Appeasement:

History of Appeasement and the Danger of Liar-Leaders
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Appeasement reached its climax in September 1938 with the Munich Agreement. Chamberlain hoped to avoid a war over Czechoslovakia by conceding to Adolf Hitler’s demands. The Agreement allowed Nazi Germany to annex the Sudetenland, the German-speaking parts of Czechoslovakia.
 
Chamberlain promised it would bring “peace in our time”, but Churchill scolded him for “throwing a small state to the wolves” in exchange for a promise of peace.
 
Speaking after Chamberlain signed the Munich Agreement, Winston Churchill said: “You were given the choice between war and dishonour. You chose dishonour and you will have war.”
 
A year later, on 1 September 1939, Hitler broke his promise and launched the invasion of Poland. Peace was shattered. By 3 September 1939, Britain was once again at war with Germany. Chamberlain declared war against Hitler, but during the next eight months, showed himself to be ill equipped for the daunting task of saving Europe from Nazi conquest.
 
After British forces failed to prevent the German occupation of Norway in April 1940, Chamberlain lost the support of many members of his Conservative Party. By May 1940, the Allies were losing, and on 10 May 1940, Hitler invaded Holland, Belgium, and the Netherlands.
 
The same day, Chamberlain formally lost the confidence of the House of Commons, so he resigned. In the face of the Nazis’ relentless march across Europe, Chamberlain bowed to pressure and resigned as Prime Minister. When Lord Halifax – the man fancied to assume the Premiership – refused the role, Churchill was the only credible alternative to lead.
 
What happened next?
 
The commonly accepted version of events states that Lord Halifax, Chamberlain’s original choice of successor, turned down the post of Prime Minister because he believed he could not govern effectively as a member of the House of Lords instead of the House of Commons.
 
Typically the Prime Minister doesn’t advise the King on the former’s successor, but Chamberlain wanted someone who would command the support of all three major parties in the House of Commons. A meeting between Chamberlain, Halifax, Churchill and David Margesson, the government Chief Whip, led to the recommendation of Churchill, and, as constitutional monarch, George VI asked Churchill to be prime minister. Churchill’s first act was to write to Chamberlain to thank him for his support.
 
Had WW2 ended before May 1940 as many had hoped, history would now know Churchill as an average First Lord with an embarrassing share of responsibility for the failures of the Norwegian campaign. But by a strange turn of history, this failure led to the increased unpopularity of Chamberlain and gave Churchill his big chance. 
 
(BBC content, from TV show: "History Revealed.")
 
The BBC is a lefty media group, of course.  They fail to finish this sentance, which should end with:  " and he proved to be the most powerful, effective and honourable leader that England and the United Kingdom has ever had."   Nor do they mention the *complete* and total defeat of the British Army "Expeditionary Force" in Europe, and it's evacuation at Dunkirk.
 
Yet Churchill absolutely refused to negotiate with Hitler, because he knew the man to be evil and dishonest.  The UK stood alone, with Canada's direct help of course, until the Americans engineered the bombing of Pearl Harbour ( by blockading Japan and cutting off it's food and oil supplies ) and thus entering the World War.  The USA became the "arsenal for Democracy", and because it's finances were in good shape (it had very little government debt), it was able to debt-finance a massive war-effort - AND develop the atomic bomb, which ended the war, and saved the Free World.  
 
We need to remember the really important stuff, that actually worked.   It was Churchill who spoke honestly, and stood with courage, committing England to fight, even when it's army had been defeated and expelled from Europe, and France had surrendered to Hitler.   Churchill is one of the great men of history, not some accidental political tourist, as this BBC article insinuates.  He was also an honourable, and true Conservative.
 
----
MCL's Current note:
 
We are now in a unique and ugly situation again, where US President Biden is looking like he is  appeasing Russia, and its criminal leader, Vladimir Putin, after Putin ordered an unprovoked invasion, using all military means, against neighbouring Ukraine, a non-nuclear Democratic European state, with a small regular military of roughly 6000 men.   Biden has frozen some Russian assets, and closed off trade finance with Russian banks, but nothing more.
 
The invading Russian forces are estimated at 170,000 soldiers.   What is impressive, is the quality of the fight that the small, ill-equiped Ukrainian Military is putting up, and the loyalty and solidarity it is demonstrating to the world.   Biden of USA, and the weak, self-interested European "leaders" - mostly women or career civil-service types, initially only imposed some limited sanctions on a few Russian banks.  (This just changed today, as Germany has committed to send anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles to Ukraine defense forces.)
 
So, Putin is emboldened, and is pressing forward with a brutal and ugly war, designed to capture and decapitate the current Ukraine government.  It is an entire affair which reeks of Nazi history, with Putin playing the part of Hitler, making absurdly false accusations, creating phony pretexts, and clearly hoping to extinguish Ukraine as a nation.   It is quite astonishing, to see the sad weakness of the Free Democracies.  We are saddened and disgusted by the apparent appeasement of the brutal invader and obvious war criminal, that Putin has chosen to be.
 
Russia should of course, at least be cut off completely from the global financial system.  It should be expelled from Interbank SWIFT system, as Iran was, and all it's offshore assets should be frozen or siezed.  It would also be fair and wise to blockade it's ports, and close all airspace around it.  Nothing like this was being done at first, and no direct military assistance is being offered to the Ukraine democratic government, other than some small shipments of small arms and ammunition, which Canada supplied via two deliveries from an RCAF transport aircraft.  
 
And little Estonia, has supplied some anti-tank hand-launched small missiles, which have been put to effective and immediate use, once the border crossings were breached and overrun.
 
Zelenskiy, the President of Ukraine, has appealed for European assistance, but has received little, so far.  Ukraine stands alone, and they risk being overrun and crushed, despite the brave fight it's high quality soldiers are putting up.   The lack of response by European nations, is particularly tragic.   America can claim it is not their fight, but no European can honestly say such a thing.
 
The entire event is a dark episode, which will change our modern course of history dramatically.   Probably, the ISS (the International Space Station) will be declared to have completed it's mission, and it will be de-orbited.   Despite a massive stock market recovery on Friday, which reversed all the previous market losses of two days previous, all Russian government bonds remain untradeable, and it is unlikely that any outside investments of any kind will be made in Russia, unless or until regime-change takes place there.    What the markets are saying, is that *all* the economic pain will accrue to Russia (and Ukraine), and economic benefit will flow to North America, as it remains free of Russian influence.  The pressure to raise administered interest-rates will be very much lowered, and all price pressure and inflation, can now be blamed on idiotic Russian action.
 
Our portfolios have more than fully recovered, which is evidence of the scenario just descibed.   The only losers here are Ukraine and Russia.  We believe Putin has been extremely unwise - insanely stupid, really.    ( MCL copy, Feb. 26, 2022 )
--- 30 ---
 
As of today, much more direct military aid has been commtted for Ukraine, with Czech Republic and Germany planning to send significant amounts of arms and materiel.   We hope the Ukrainians can hold out.  But there is NO direct American involvement, and Biden has refused to commit any troops or even air support, as he doubtless wants to avoid nuclear war with Russia.
 
We caution that this may be a very bad decision.   A better course of action would be actively assist Ukraine, and call Putin's bluff.   If Putin uses nuclear weapons, then the Free World would have the opportunity to completely remove the Putin Threat, and then assist Russia in becoming a free and prosperous member of the European Community, instead of a gangster-nation of invader-terrorists, which it has now been forced to be, by the gangster government that controls it.   No one in Russia will benefit from the current course of action.   The Americans should take whatever action is required to engineer regime-change in Russia.
 
The correct time to do this is NOW, and not to wait until Putin has made good on his threats, and launched his missiles against Europe and the World.  We honestly believe he may well be insane, or perhaps on drugs of some kind.  (There are serious, real reasons to believe this is actually the case.)
 
He started this war, but it will be up to the Free Democracies to ensure that it finishes with a clear victory for the Free World.   No other option can be tolerated - or should even be considered.  Putin is a Liar-Leader - and appeasement of a Liar-Leader,  is quite impossible.  
 
Churchill warned this about Hitler, and now the whole world knows this about Putin. 
 
[ Feb. 26, 2022 ] - Days and Nights - of terror and mass-murder by Russian forces in Ukraine.  The Putin War in Ukraine is as ugly and awful as it was unnecessary.  Vladimir Putin is a war criminal, on par with Osama Bin Laden.   What is curious, is how little is being done to help the democratic nation of Ukraine.  The "Sanctions" that Joe Biden, the acting President of the USA, has implemented, are minimal, and will not deter this Russian aggression.  The UN has also proven to be completely ineffective, and is really a rather bad joke.  It is a truly an epic failure as an organization.  

The Mayor of Kyiv has posted, using Telegram, the true pictures of what the Russian assault on Kyiv looks like.  Apartment buildings are being destroyed by incoming missile attacks.   Vladimir Putin really IS being Osama Bin Laden.  He is not even up to the level of a Hitler or a Stalin. 

People in New York City might find the pictures interesting.    If they remember 21 years ago, their city was also under attack by Terrorists.  

America might consider trying to do a bit more.   Russia is now a failed entity, run by a terrorist criminal.  Until regime-change takes place in that country, there should be no economic interaction of any kind, by anyone in the Free World, with any entity in or from Russia.   The next step should be a complete blockade of all Russian ports.

Meanwhile:  The sad little toad-like men who Putin has put in to positions of power, have been told to stop stammering, and speak their lies clearly and directly.   If people were not being murdered by Putin (psychopath & pathelogical liar), it would be the best comedy show of the year:

https://www.businessinsider.co.za/spy-chief-putin-humiliated-releases-video-echoing-putins-war-rhetoric-2022-2

Putin is making up this astonishing lie that Russian speakers are being hurt and that a "genocide" is happening in Ukraine, so the Russian forces are invading to "help" people!   Except the truth is that even the Russian speakers are actively part of the Ukrainian defense.  Putin's lies are so outrageous and absurd, that even his own people cannot actually speak them without stammering and being told by Putin to "Speak directly!"  It is just a farce.   I recall this old saying: "History repeats like a bad play:  First, as Tragedy, and then later, as Farce."

[ Feb. 25, 2022 ] - Great Russian Leaders: Peter the Great, Yeltsin the Courageous.  Bad Russian Leaders: Ivan the Terrible, Putin the Stupid - Spy guys should not try to be Statesmen or Kings.  They need to be working for someone who knows how and what to do.   Vladimir Putin is just another in a long line of very bad Leaders, a corrupt, abusive fraudster.

All our portfolio losses have fully recovered today.  So, in the words of the very, very brave Ukrainians who refused to surrender their little island to a Russian warship: "Fuck you, Russian warship".  They were all killed by cowardly Russians.   Jesus, do the poor bastard Russians know what their fuck-stupid "Leader" is doing to their own country?   We honestly think that Putin is a raging psychopath.   The Russian Government (their Duma, or Parliament), should arrest the crazy murdering lunatic, and put him on trial for mass murder and the criminal use of Russian military defense forces.  That man is just a filthy, common war criminal.

No one will be doing *any* business of any kind with Russia, and once Biden goes, it will get worse, not better for Russia.  Poor, weak Mr. Biden, a very old man, whose days are ending... damn how he reminds us of Neville Chamberlain of the UK, back in the 1930's.  He is a failed, weak, "yesterday man" - his time is past - and so is that sad real-estate bankrupt, Donald Trump.  All this human nonsense has to be swept from the stage now.

We need new programs, and new, strong leaders, who will mine all the Russian harbours, and enforce a complete blockade of Russia, until all it's murder-squads are removed from Ukraine, and the criminal idiot Vladimir Putin is put on trial in the European Court of Justice, just like Slobface from Serbia was.  

What is impressive, is the courage and tenacity and quality of Zelenskiy and the Ukrainian military.   And the people of Ukraine, who went to Police stations, and were handed AK-47s and ammunition, so they could shoot the criminal forces invading their cities.

Really, the correct course of action is to destroy Vladimir Putin.   That abusive, crazy murdering fraudster sleeps somewhere.  Time to knock that boy off his golden toilet.  This is a job for anyone who wants to do it - but it would be best done by Russians themselves.  The man is a crazy, meglomaniac psychopath, who should not have any power or authority.  The whole situation is just tragic madness.  Putin is this decade's Bin Laden.   He is Bin Laden with nuclear weapons, and his actions threaten the whole world - but mostly, he is destroying Russia itself, and the future of the Russian people.   

PM:  And it appears the ISS (International Space Station) is finished with it's mission.  It will have to be de-orbited, and dropped into the ocean.   The Chinese were wise to orbit their own platform.  Doubtless the US will have to do this also.  No more money for the Russian Space program, and least none from the Free Democracies.   It's over.

https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/space-station-can-drop-on-india-russian-space-chief-on-us-sanctions-2789547#News_Trending

[ Feb. 24, 2022 ] - Vladimir Putin Channels Adolf Hitler - We honestly did not think Putin would be this fucking stupid.  The military invasion of Ukraine, in a flagrant and astonishing violation of International Law, has just begun.  We had expected Putin to cleverly *threaten* invasion, but not actually be such a shit-for-brains as to launch an armed assault against Kyiv & it's Airport, send in the tanks, murder the border guards, and rain missles down on civilian centres.

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia-ukraine-latest-news?mod=article_inline

Putin has now shown himself to be the equivalent of Osama Bin Laden - just another dangerous, armed terrorist killer, which the world will have to deal with.   Like Bin Laden, he talks nonsense and then kills innocent people for political gain.  He is now the world's greatest threat.

Bravo for American intelligence and the actual *HONEST* spies of the USA. 

Suddenly, History is happening again, and the good and honourable people of the world, will have to rise up, and take charge.   Citizens of the Free World, must sweep the weak and foolish sanction-talking puppets from their positions, and honest and strong leaders must take their places. 

The really very bad people are back in their war-saddles, on their war-horses, and are attacking cities and killing the innocent who only want to do their business, and live their lives.    These outlaw killers will have to be taken down and their gangster forces destroyed.

Putin is an outright liar, a war-criminal and a gangster terrorist.   We are quite honestly astonished that things have gone so far off the rails in Russia, that their existing government would allow this to happen.    Putin should be arrested, charged with criminal assault and mass-murder, and imprisoned by the Russian government.   And the gangster armies that are invading Ukraine should be recalled.    And if they refuse, and go full-rogue and become pirates, they - and their commanders (especially their commanders) should be destroyed by any means possible.  

We hope the Ukrainians have the resources to fight these bastards to a stand-still.  Perhaps the folks in Poland might take this opportunity to restore the rightful elected government in Belarus, and correct the ugly situation in Minsk.   Just a thought, since the Belarusian gangsters are distracted by their pirate enterprise in the south.

Sanctions are bullshit.  What the Free World needs are missles, with large warheads and effective, accurate targeting ability.  And the courage and wisdom to launch the bloody things.  Talk achieves nothing, when dealing with outlaws.

https://www.businessinsider.com/un-ambassadors-comfort-ukraine-rep-amid-news-of-russian-assault-2022-2

[ Feb. 23, 2022 ] - Spring Will Come - But not just yet.  At the moment, we are in the middle of a blizzard.  Curious times.  Our AI forecasting technology has just turned profoundly negative.  Yet, our hedges seem to be working, and the portfolios are weathering the storm rather well.    We expect a turn, as it seems a global rush to conflict and violence would not only be suicidal for the nation-states, but just so very bad for all positive economic outcomes everywhere.  It is clear that we now need changes of the various nation-state leaderships, especially in Russia, USA and Canada.  Our artificial intelligence software suggests a global co-ordinated economic downturn - which need not happen - is now being actively programmed into the global system.    We caution - both as Economists and computerized Analysts - that serious efforts should be made to avoid this path.

Today, the Ukraine Parliament passed a law allowing Ukraine citizens who are not in the army, to acquire and carry firearms.   Just a bit late, folks.   People who do not read or understand history, do not understand where Freedom comes from.  This is a modern tragedy.   Unarmed people are always at risk of being made into slaves - or worse.  The correct social model, is Switzerland.   People should be taught - or at least try to read - honest history.

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-defense/3410346-verkhovna-rada-passes-bill-on-civilian-firearms-at-first-reading.html

[ Feb. 22, 2022 ] - Time to Change the Program - The Rubicon has been crossed, but it has been crossed without Caesar.   Perhaps this is the way it must be done.  A Caesar can be destroyed.  (Next month is March.)   But it is not possible to destroy all the people, and those who have used violence and force of arms against their own people eventually fall, are destroyed, and their names are vilified by history.

It will be amusing, were it possible, to watch the meeting between Justin Trudeau and Vladimir Putin in Hell.

They will have so much to talk about.

[ Feb. 21, 2022 ] - There Will Come Soft Rains - And more besides.  Shame on those whom we thought were good men of integrity and honour.  It seems the poets warned us all along, didn't they.   The Hollow Men - and their women - are now in charge, it seems. 

[ Feb. 20, 2022 ] - If You Voted for a "Liberal", or for a "Trudeau person", You Made a Serious Mistake - Please correct this mistake, if you ever get another chance to vote in a free and fair election in Canada. 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/justin-trudeaus-destructive-emergency-canada-truckers-protest-11645223027?mod=trending_now_opn_1

This Trudeau character, and his foolish, abusive & corrupt Compact, must be removed from power.  We would also ask that everyone please refrain from providing any support or economic  assistance of any kind to Liberal "Party" operatives, or organizations which support the Liberal "Party".

Individuals on their own have no power to influence or change anything - especially when Governments have invoked Military Law and declared themselves to have "Emergency Powers".  Personally we did not care about the protesting Truck Drivers.

But we were wrong.  What the protesting Truck Drivers were doing, was important, and the idiotic and abusive actions by that lightweight Waterhole-person we have acting as our Prime Minister has made it clear, that the protests against the abusive Ottawa fraudsters was justified, valuable and necessary.

The protests have now been crushed, the protesters arrested, and their assets have been siezed by government agents.  

We believe this to be so very wrong.  But it has made clear to us all, exactly what we are dealing with in this country.

We caution anyone in Canada reading this - be very careful.  It is possible that Trudeau and his henchmen may not be as stupid and foolish as they appear.   The "Emergency Powers" the Liberals have given themselves allow them to destroy anyone who opposes them.   History shows that the Liberals have typically exploited crisis-events to their own benefit.  They are a powerful and dangerous Gang.  They have read their Lenin, their Mao, and doubtless "The Prince", by Machiavelli.  They know it is better to be feared, than to be loved or respected.   History lets us know these kinds of people, and know them well.

Trudeau has shown he is willing to kow-tow to China and America  - and act as an errand-boy for their interests.   Yet he brings out the machine-guns against peaceful, unarmed protesters - his own citizens in his own country.   He makes up lies and outrageous fraudulent accusations, and says the protesters are misogynists (a "misogynist" is someone who hates women!  Truck Drivers hate Women?  Really, Mr. Trudeau?) and "violent racists",   Trudeau is either insane, or he is simply using dishonest & inflamatory rhetoric to try to sway public opinion.   We do not believe he is insane - so we can only conclude he is a lying fraud.

Should we really have a lying fraud, as our Prime Minister?    Sure, this is a rhetorical question - but it still deserves an answer, even if the truthful response remains in your own heart.

We *MUST* correct this ugly and grotesque situation.    Our hope is for a *Vote of No Confidence* in the House.    These Liberals are a *Minority Government*

This means if all the other political parties in Parliament vote in FAVOUR of the Vote of No Confidence we can get these Liberal rogues THROWN OUT and a new election will have to be called.

And then we can see if the protesting Truck Drivers really were a "fringe element" like our Prime Lying Sack of Crap has asserted, or maybe we can discover that perhaps, the Truck Drivers were actually the true voice of the Free Canadian People.

It's time for Parliament to do it's job now.   We need to have this "Liberal Government" (such as it is) removed.

Canadians and their Parliament have the legal tools required to make this happen, and it is time we made use of them.

[ Feb. 19, 2022 ] - Police Armed with Machine Guns Smash Truck Windows of Ottawa Protesters - And so the uselessness of peaceful protest is again demostrated in Ottawa.   Police armed with automatic weapons (that means: machine-guns and bullet-proof riot gear), take down the peaceful protesters in Ottawa, by smashing the windows of the truck-drivers, arresting hundreds of them, towing away their trucks, and siezing the funds in their bank accounts.   This is what you can do, if you invoke the "Emergency Measures Act", which this Trudeau character's father also did.  (It was called the "War Measures Act" in his day.)  

The Liberals are also the ones who put all the Japanese-Canadians in Concentration camps during World War II, and siezed their property and never paid any compensation to those whose property was stolen - pretty much exactly what was first done to the Jews of Europe under the German National Socialist government.  When people compare Trudeau and the Liberals to Hitler and the Nazi's, there is some solid basis for this assertion, based on historical fact.   

It is useful to see the true face of Liberalism in this nation.  It is shown to be a very ugly face, when it can be seen clearly, without the usual lies and deceptions of the Leftist Liberal media organs.  Newsmax caught the real image...

https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/canada-truckers-protest-riot-gear/2022/02/19/id/1057588/

Perhaps this ugly scene can cure the Canadian people of their fixation with Trudeau, and the Liberal Compact.  This Trudeau character has got to be removed - and his removal might well require a similar sort of direct action.   This is unfortunate.  The times are not *changing* any more.  They have now changed, and change *must* take place.  Protesting abuse of power is just foolish and pointless.   Protests achieve nothing at all, and are easily neutralized by government folks armed with automatic weapons, and the extra-legal ability to sieze private bank accounts.  

I fear we are all in for some very difficult times.   Trudeau says the protesters are a "fringe element", but we suspect he is very wrong about this.

[ Feb 18 PM, 2022 ] - Separatists with Howitzers? - The Russian Lie Machine is truly beyond belief now.  The truth of the Ukraine nightmare, is that a proxy Russian army (the separaists in the Donetsk region)  is operating already, and is carrying out a series of military assaults against civilian targets.  They are using heavy artillery.  They are shelling private homes and schools, and are killing civilians, and the astonishing Russian Lie Machine is trying to suggest that the Ukraine Army defending it's homeland, is somehow doing something wrong.  Vladimir Putin has become a hard-core liar. 

This is just a tragic and stupid situation.   We really used to like Putin.    Perhaps he has had a stroke, or maybe some group is now controlling him.  A Russian invasion of Ukraine is deeply wrong, and would be supremely stupid.  It could destroy Russia, in the long run.   The whole world will have to gear up for war, if it happens, since it means everything Russian authorities say, is not to be trusted at all.   Russia has over 2000 nuclear weapons, and if their government is insane and made up of murderous nutjobs, then something will have to be done to correct that - eventually.

The East Ukraine "seperatists" are just Russian-backed criminals, that are engaged in running murder-squads to kill Ukrainians and steal their property.   Even the Wall Street Journal and the New York Times have picked up on what is really happening.  (You need a subscription to the WSJ to see the images of the houses that were shelled in Stanytsia-Lushankya, as the story is an exclusive to the WSJ.)   But the New York Times has images of the childrens school that was shelled.  The Russian proxy "army" of separatists is doing the shelling.  This is the real story, not the FSB dis-information fake-news nonsense. 

Good for the New York Times, and the WSJ.   Because of 9/11, Americans in New York have some understanding of what it feels like to be on the ground, during a violent, terrorist attack.  

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/17/world/europe/stanytsia-lushankya-shelling.html

We wonder why the Ukrainians have to face the risk of abusive, murderous assault by the Russian military, all by themselves?  Why does Ukraine not have *any* allies who could help them stand up to well-funded, well-equipped Russian invasion force?    This is just bullshit.

Stalin's Russian forces raped that entire nation, and murdered over 1 million land-owners in the 1930s, so it could steal their property to build those awful "Soviet Collective Farms" which were just massive exercises in property-theft and mass-murder.   Then Hitler and the Germans came and invaded, and again stole all the best property.    Russia re-captured the place, and brought it's exploding, badly-run Soviet nuclear plant, which then delivered the worst nuclear accident in history.  Chernobyl was an accident - but it was a Russian accident that did not have to happen.

One has to feel for Ukraine.   It has had a tragic history, and now, it faces a threat from the Belarusian thugs from the north, and the Russian military from everywhere else.  It is easy to predict the outcome here, if Russia executes on it's invasion scheme.  Again, the land will be overrun by thugs and criminals, unless the Ukrainians are offered some sort of military assistance.  Biden is dangerously weak, and this was demonstrated by the horrible Afghan "cut-and-run" exercise.  So Putin is emoboldened by the evident American weakness.

But a destroyed Ukraine may result.  The Ukrainians may fight for their homeland, as they have tasted freedom, and perhaps they like the taste.  Freedom is worth fighting for.  It is even worth dying for, I suspect.   Everyone will die.   And to die in the battle to defend your homeland from criminal invaders, would give each and every citizen-soldier's life real meaning.

History shows "Leaders" need to be careful, in starting wars.  The un-opposed thug leader of some impoverished people may start a war of conquest - and enjoy initial success.  But the very action puts in place an intense desire among previously unfocused groups of people, to unify themselves, and act to recover their lost homelands.  War begets intense hatred and anger and these emotions lead passive people to become active, weak people to become strong, and tired people to find new sources of vigour, energy, courage and ability.  All is changed by war.

Mr. Putin, Are you sure you want to open this Box?

[ Feb 18, 2022 ] - The Madness of King Waterhole - Things are getting really weird and rather quite ugly, everywhere now it seems.  Here, we have a lightweight PM who has just invoked the "War Measures Act'.   Oops, it was renamed the "Emergency Powers Act" when it was re-written in 1988 to allow bank accounts to be siezed without court orders.   This is just wrong, wrong & wrong.   If you protest against political abuse and *very bad government*, then you are now at risk of full-on economic assault, designed to destroy lives and reduce people to poverty.   And you risk the jackboots also, of course.

Anyone who votes for the "Liberal Party" in this country, is either mentally deluded or perhaps is an active participant in a LIberal gangster-style consipiracy to enrich themselves.  Our primary mandate now, is that we remove the abusive Liberal Mafia that holds power in Ottawa.   The Leftist "Waterhole Gang" really must be removed.   These people should not be in positions of political power.   They have quite literally no idea what they are doing.   All they can do successfully, is to crush and destroy anyone who opposes them.   It is basically Martial Law that Waterhole's gang has now declared - just to stop some protesting truck-drivers!  This is wrong.

I am sick to death of liars and fools and fraudsters pumping out the Covid lies.   Most of my neighbours did NOT get vaccines, and instead got sick with Covid last year.  I think they are unwise, but they did not die.  They are now all doing just fine.  We are achieving herd-immunity.  If you do your research, you can see that this is how all pandemics end.

We got all the vaccines we could get, once we could get them.  We just got a Pfizer booster a couple of weeks ago, and two Moderna mRNA shots last year.  We are not anti-Vax.   We are scientists, not god-believers.    But we also see that most folks have now either been vaccinated or have got Covid and recovered.    All this Nazi-style government bullshit to try to dictate everyone's behaviour, has been a full-on example of Leftist madness, and it was just over-the-top wrong.  

I kept hearing all this "Covid-19 will overwhelm the Health-Care system..." blah blah blah.   It was such stupid talk.    We have a socialist health care model, and the folks working there have done their jobs.  But only just.   The system is not great.   But nothing was *overwhelmed".  A few people had to actually do some real work.   Fine.  They should, if that is their job.

In the old days, the Doctor would come to your house.  That was a good model.  The current model - where everyone has to go to a hospital or clinic, is a bad model, and ensures that virus transmission can be more effective and rapid.   Socialism is just stupid shit.  But no-one wants to say this obvious truth, since there is so much money flowing to so many in the current socialist system.

Our vaccination rates are over 80%, despite how idiotically difficult it was to actually get access to the vaccines.  (If we did not have Elon Musk's high-speed, Starlink internet access, we would not even have been ABLE to get booked at the vaccine web-sites, and the vaccinated!  It was just comical! )

The key fact learned, is that strength and freedom come from tolerating private, individual actions that encourage strength and freedom.   If my neighbour wants to get his/her immunity by the old-fashioned approach to this, I figure that is his or her business.  These stupid Covid *mandates* by Leftist governments achieved nothing whatsoever, other than to damage people's lives.   The Chinese model of "Zero Covid" is so fucking amazingly stupid, that it is just a comedy of tragic behaviour.  The only solution is mass-vaccination, and we now have seen - with the Omicron variant - that even that did not really work very well, either.  But at least it might have saved lives and reduced the intensity of the illness for some.

Vaccines are a great idea.  But it is wrong to punish people who don't get vaccinated.  Let them be the control-group, and let's watch and see what happens to them.  They seem to be doing ok.

The government mandates simply seem to have been used to create private difficulty, and even to have destroyed lives.  They were - like most "government actions" - just another chapter in a long series of massive, life-destroying, tragic failures on the part of ill-informed, dishonest State authorities.   Why can people not see just how dangerous and often worthless, most "Government" action generally is?  The State is very rarely the solution to the problem - it is almost always the source and the amplifier of the problem.  We saw this - again - with Covid. 

Mad King Waterhole should be made to resign.   And it would be interesting if the "Emergency Measures Act" (The "War Powers Act", basically our version of Martial Law for extreme military emergencies) could perhaps be used to de-fund the Liberal Party, and put the dishonest and abusive LIberal machine out of business forever.   It would be most amusing and so very educational, to see Mad King Waterhole, hoisted on his own petard.

We are done with Covid, and we are done with the Left.   Time for them both to be tossed into the Great Dumpster of History.

[ Feb. 17, 2022 ] - Are You Receiving Me? - Or are you deceiving me?   Information confrontation should really be more than just a smelly wet sack of lies.   Crazy old man running things, wants to make war on the world.  In the times of the ancients, the unwise leaders that attempted this sort of foolish strategy, ended their days early, as they watched their world collapse around them.  Stupid, stupid & stupid.   Like Beetlejuice.  Say it three times.   Invite the Devil to come on in.   Are your sure you want this?

[ Feb. 15, 2022 ] - How Fast are *Your* Neutrons? - Been doing a bit of research on FNRs (Fast Neutron Reactors), which are a new-ish class of nuclear fission reactor.   Actually, they have been around since the beginning of commercial-grade nuclear power generation.   Too long & too complex to talk about here - but my neutrons have typically been "thermal", which means they are just tooting along, not moving too fast at all.

Nuclear physics is a science of probabilities, rather like the marketplace takes the science of scarcity (economics), and makes it's randomness, manifest.   A neutron will slam into a nucleus, and whack it apart (and maybe produce a shower of new neutrons, depending on what kind of nucleus it hit), and of course, each of these new neutrons can make stuff happen.  Hence the "chain reaction" thing.  The size of the nucleus to be hit, it's "cross section", is measured in "barns", and the bigger a cross-section, the higher likelyhood of a neutron-collision.  Why "barns"?  The story is that a physics guys, measuring a (estimating) cross-section, found a big one, and said "The cross-section of this stuff is as big as a barn!"  If you Google "how big is a barn cross section", you can get an explanation.  Ok, here is a link:

https://www.britannica.com/science/barn-measurement

and a more complete explanation, here:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barn_(unit)

I've been working on a hybrid fusion-fission device idea.   So are many others, of course.   My table-top IEC (Inertial Electrostatic Confinement) fusion device works ok, but it's net energy output is so small as to be effectively un-measurable.  All it really is, is an expensive, rather low output, neutron generator.  The little piece of radioactive Americium-241 inside a typical smoke-detector can be put in a berylium container, and is probably a cheaper neutron source, if you really need a little neutron stream.  If you hit berylium with alpha-particles (basically a Helium nucleus), you get neutrons reflected back.  Americium-241 is useful little isotope.  It is a by-product of nuclear-reactor action, and can be found in the spent fuel from a nuke plant.  Check out link below, if curious:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Americium-241

Neutrons have mass, but no electric charge, so this makes them very useful.   A neutron beam is like a little machine-gun of tiny, non-ionizing particles, and can be used to destroy cancer tumors without causing more cancer (no ionization-radiation cell damage, without the electrical charge), and can also be used in soil moisture detection devices, and so on.  But since neutrons have no charge, you cannot aim the stream easily, like you can an electron beam, or a proton beam, like what comes from your cyclotron or other particle-accelerator, if you are lucky enough to have one to play with.   We have one in Canada, that you can book time on, if you need to, but it's a tad expensive, IIRC ...

https://www.triumf.ca/research-program/research-facilities/main-cyclotron-beam-lines

But it's beam is 520 mev protons, not neutrons.   With a beam of high-energy neutrons, you can change basic stuff (elements) into other stuff (this is called: transmutation.)   In the old days, of course, everyone wanted to change lead into gold.  Well, if you have enough time and enough neutrons, you actually are able to do this... 

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/fact-or-fiction-lead-can-be-turned-into-gold/

But the amount of gold produced, is not much at all, as the article above describes.   It's really the neutrons that are interesting, since if you can scatter enough of these tiny hardballs, you can make all sorts of interesting nuclear reactions happen - especially if you have managed to seperate out a baseball-sized lump of "fissile material", like U-235 or Pu-239.  (Pu-241 is fissile, but it has a half-life of only 14 years, whereas Pu-239 has a half-life of over 24,000 years.  Both are able to react with thermal (slow walking) neutrons.)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fissile_material

The world will be needing a *lot* of new nuclear reactors soon, or we will all be freezing in the dark, and will all start becoming a lot more poor, by every economic measure.   Our future is nuclear, no matter which path we go down.  Better it be cheap, nuclear-generated electricity, rather than air-bursts of plutonium-239 loaded devices above our cities.   We have to be darn careful with plutonium, since only around 1 kg of the Pu-239 isotope is needed to create a nasty thing that would be bad (ie. a 1 kiloton of TNT equivalent detonation, and resulting radioactive mess).  But atomic bombs are not all bad.  You can make them as small as a coke-bottle.  And if you have a simple system to poop them outside the back of your spaceship, you could build an atomic space ship that could zoom around the solar system quickly and still be able to slow down and go into orbit.  (cf. Project Orion - which was a real, true actual project for such a ship, with design work done by Dr. Freeman Dyson and General Atomics, back in the 1950's)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Orion_(nuclear_propulsion)

Also, this is Freeman's son, and his research project, as a TED Talk. (I think it is the best TED Talk that has ever been done, truth be told...)

https://www.ted.com/talks/george_dyson_the_story_of_project_orion?language=en

My little research fusion device ran on deuterium.  Deuterium  (heavy-hydrogen gas, basically hydrogen with a proton and a neutron as it's nucleus, not just a single proton, as is the case for ordinary hydrogen), is not radioactive, so, unlike tritium, it is not a "controlled substance".  But the chemical companies sure want to know who you are, when you order a lecture-bottle of the stuff, for your fusion-reactor.   Canada's nuclear reactors - the CANDU design - are well-designed and safe, and use deuterium-water (heavy water) and are providing the power I am using, to type this little note.    In Ontario, roughly half of our electricity is generated by nuclear reactors, since Niagara Falls has been maxed out for many years.  (At night, almost no water even goes over the falls, as almost all the river is diverted into the large power-production reservoir.)    Whether you like it or not, we have all "gone nuclear" quite a long time ago.   

But we never did get those "nuclear spaceships".  Although famous Admiral Rickover did give us the nuclear submarine "Nautilus", which was launched and sailed under the arctic ice to the North Pole, before I was even born.  He also created the USA's nuclear-power Navy ships, and his team designed and had built the first commercial nuclear power plant, at Shippingport.   And he did it all in 10 years, which is very impressive.   (Our little nuclear research project is far reaching.)   We are interested in determining what works as what does not work.   Rickover and his people designed safe, reliable nuclear power technology that worked well.  His story is almost beyond belief, except we know it all got done and was and is all true.    :)

[ Feb. 14, 2022 ] - My Funny Valentine's Day - Perhaps it is time to address the algorithm problem?  Are we really enhancing price discovery and market stability, by allowing computers to do most of our trading?  The SEC (and in Canada, the OSC), seem to be just a bit behind the curve, and asleep at the switch on this.  The algo-trading is creating a curious, "tripwire" environment, which could be made less insane (we suspect), simply by asking that humans be required to enter trades, not just automatic computer programs.  

Our concern is that the "tripwire trading" that modern algorithmic (ie. automatic) computer-connected trading systems (where computers themselves are running procedures which actually do almost all the buying and selling on the modern financial markets), contains within itself the seed of it's own (and the marketplace's) destruction.  

We are not complaining (in fact, truth be told, we are doing ok...), but the markets looks silly.  And it is simply our experience, that suggests that *silly* carries curious - and maybe serious -  risk. 

We honestly don't want the system to blow up, and ruin itself.   But an ocsillating system, connected to itself, and driving itself based on it's own past results from a few time-units earlier, will eventually blow itself to bits, by oscillating violently to it's own (and then well past), it's own limits.   I worry about this.  Or maybe I am just getting old or something like that ...  

[ Feb. 13, 2022 ] - If You Want to Hire Them, How Much Does the Light Brigade Charge? - Curious, this build-up to World War Vee.    Really, really curious...   It's insane, on so many levels.  

[ Feb. 11, 2022 ] - Bad Moon (and Prices!) Rising - We are generally very optimistic folks.  But not right now.  Interest rates rising off of the silly almost-zero line they have been resting on, will blow everyone's leveraged assets to hell.   This is just a fact, not an opinion.   We have been sucking back financial heroin for quite a while - and the super-cheap debt (in conservative Canada, where banks typically demand loan-to-value ratios of 75/25), you could get 5 year term, 30-year mortgages for around 3%.   This has driven house prices thru the roof, with typical ordinary suburban house in Southern Ontario now selling in the $1,000,000-plus range.    This is nuts. 

It gets corrected, when mortgage rates are driven up by market forces, and thus the value of the debt-leveraged assets get re-priced.  This causes real-estate prices to downshift.  I've seen this happen (in a big way) at least twice in my life.  We are due for a three-peat, I suspect.

But it happens at same time as the bond market turns over.  That means hard losses for fintech and banks, holding paper wealth.  It just does.   Think I am full of crap?  Check out these NYSE and NASDAQ ticker symbols:    EMB, HYG, JNK (or BARC on London), LQD, MUB.   They are bond and bond-ish ETF's  (Exchange Traded Funds).    They are all turning over.

The recent inflation print in USA land (7.5% annual CPI increase, as per January reading), means the inflation is no longer *coming*, it's now here.   We knew this, since we run a farm, and everything is up around 20% or more in price. 

The problem with inflation, is that the economic-wonkers still do not understand it well.  You can get all these squirrelly things happen - assets zoom up, and then crash down, once it becomes clear the economy is busted.   And inflation really *DOES* bust the economy, because it makes it unclear what is really happening.  The price mechanism - which is a signalling, information transfer device, stops working right.   Plus, consumption gets favoured over investment, and this can happen in a BIG WAY, so much so, that the savings-into-investment process breaks down completely.  This butchers the process-model that lets an economy create wealth.  The 1970's, especially after the "oil shock" (where the Arabs jacked up the price of oil, and gasoline in Canada was repriced from 45 cents per gallon, to 75 cents per litre (4.2 litres in the Imperial gallon, which is used in Canada, not the smaller US gallon).   This just blew us up, and Trudeau (Version 1.0) and his buddy Edmund Clark (who was young at the time, and who became much later the boss of Toronto Dominion bank, and was really a very fine fellow, truth be told), came up with a plan to control crude oil prices, create "Petro Canada", and thus manage the price of Canadian petrol.    This was of course a disaster, much like Jimmy Carter's ill-fated attempts in the USA, which created the huge, long gas lines, and also did great damage to the USA economy.

Price controls are REALLY VERY BAD  - but it seems every generation has to learn this fact.  The old comment is true:  The best price controls are no price controls, since the very best cure for high prices, is of course, high prices.

But it seems every new crop of children have to re-learn this simple economic truth.  So very curious, as if our history simply does not exist - or the kids just don't read it.  Weird, truly.

Inflation first gooses the stock market, and then it kicks the crap out of it, since the investment process basically stops working.   The stock market requires people to have faith and trust, and believe in the future.  When they no longer do - because the present is becoming a sh/tshow of awful proportions, then the stocks collapse, since there are not anywhere near enough true savings to fund the investment process, and the economy becomes a "STAGFLATION" phenomenon.   Stocks tend to re-trace to previous levels.  Example:  A bank that yields 4% in a zero-interest-rate, low inflation environment, needs to be re-priced from 100 down to 50, in order to yield 8% (nominal yield, not "real" yield).  If inflation is running at 7.5%, then you will need to get 8% rate of dividend on your stock investments, JUST TO EARN 1/2 of 1% real-yield.   You can get your bigger rate-of-dividend, if the share-price collapses.  The bank share price also falls off, because all those 1-million dollar houses (with their 700,000 dollar mortgages), get repriced down to around $750,000 (a 25% fall in value).   If the collateral falls, the share-value of the bank falls, assuming investors are not all brain-dead.

This inflation problem is *really* well understood, by people who have seen it, and by economists who have actually had to fix this sort of horror-show.  And these horror-shows have historically been very common in Africa and South America, since the inept and/or corrupt (usually both) political people in charge in those places, often try to print money to pay for what must be purchased.  But their national debt is typically in hard-currency, and so a whole viper's-nest of disasters result.  Often, these sad nations just default on their loans.   It's a very bad movie that plays over and over again, since a different crop of crooks take over every few years.  One can review all this foolishness, from Argentina to Zimbabwe, and see the same bad behaviour by corrupt, dishonest, LEFTIST politicians.   It is sad and bad - and happens over and over again.    No one can fix this, it seems.

Northern nations, which have knowledge of their own (and other's) histories, generally do not want to let an inflation (or an inflation-process) get started.   Inflation beginning is like a fire in fireworks factory.  You need to be quick on the draw, to get that fire out, before the big stuff catches.

Curious how nothing much is being done, by anyone, anywhere - yet.   So far, it's all just talk, talk, talk.  We find this very curious, because the recent CPI prints have shown that the inflation has now become entrenched and is starting to affect general economic behaviour in North America.  

WIthin the next few weeks, we expect this awareness to show up in the stock markets.  But it has not, just yet, it appears.  (It *is* showing up in Bond-land...)

[ Feb. 10, 2022 ] - Starlight, Star, bright, Have We the Fusion Star Tonite? - Read details of JET fusion reactor run at Oxford in the UK.  They got the beast to run on a mixture of D2 and tritium for FIVE SECONDS.   That is big.  The experimental reactor ran up a heat energy of 59 megajoules, according to published bumpf.    This is perhaps a medium-sized deal, maybe.  And maybe it is just more hype...   Here is note, from WNN:

https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Fusion-energy-record-at-JET-huge-step-forward

The reactor chamber walls use berylium, instead of carbon-based material.  Berylium is good.  It is dangerous to work with (the dust can kill you, it's so toxic to humans), but it is just a lovely neutron reflector.  We like it. 

Anyway, I had to do some reading on PWR's (Pressurized Water Reactors).  CANDU reactors use heavy water, (D2 instead of H2 in the H2O chemistry).  Expensive, but makes a better moderator, IIRC.   PWRs use light water, and high-pressure, circulate reactor cooling water and then a heat-exchanger to generate steam for the turbines to generate the electricity.   A tad complex.   I lean towards BWRs (boiling water reactors).   But PWRs are more common.   Reading details on Wikipedia page for PWRs, and even found an error in the technical notes on the pressurizer description - pretty funny.   We will all be building and using new fission reactors everywhere, pretty soon.  Or maybe not.  :)

What is sad about the whole fusion research and development process, is the bogus timelines for the government funded projects.  They are just silly, and almost a joke.  Fusion is just a fat sinecure for the academics and physics grads who don't want to build atom bombs, or drive cabs, or teach students.   We will all be dead of old age, before a single watt is added to the grid from a fusion reactor, if we are waiting for the government-funded electric-donuts to do anything useful.   It's just tragic-comic, really.  

It is helpful to read about what US Navy Admiral Rickover did.  I think he might be partly responsible for the fact that the world is still operational, in a rather non-trivial way.   I had read about his psychological evaluations that he did to select his nuclear submarine commanders.  These guys had the ability and the authority to launch nuclear missles from their subs, in the event the USA's command and control infrastructure - and it's political leaders - were all "removed" in a first-strike assault on North America.   Their existence, and the "electric boats" that General Dynamics built, made sure that no "surprise attack" on USA could hope to succeed, without either Russia or China (or maybe both, just for good measure!) being wiped out by a wave of sub-launched ICBM's carrying hydrogen-bomb warheads.  

This simple fact - and Rickover's explicit assurance that none of his sub Commanders would turn into "General Jack D. Ripper"  (of "Dr. Strangelove ... " film fame, played so well by Sterling Hayden), kept us all safe from Soviet and Red Chinese nuclear attack.

What I did not know, was the Rickover was the genius who insisted on the creation of the modern nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, and also the first commerical nuclear power plant.  Here is a link to the book, all about this:

https://www.usni.org/press/books/rickover-effect

More reading that must be done.    :)

[ Feb. 09, 2022 ] - Video Schilled the Radio Star - It just keeps getting more silly.  I am on page 183 of "Adam Smith's" - "The Money Game", where he describes how "Performance Funds" were born.  This stuff is so curious - it is ancient history, since it describes the bubbly, boomtime stock markets of the 1960's - yet it is such a timeless classic, it could have been written yesterday.  When it was all happening, I was a tiny child, reading the 'Stock Market Quotations" pages in the "Globe and Mail", at breakfast, before my miserable walk to Westmount Public School, where I would get iceballs thrown at my head by the school bullies.  Nothing really changes much.   We did "duck and cover" drills in the gym when I was in Grade Two, and I recall thinking quite clearly: "How in the hell is me sitting on the floor in the gym, going to make any difference to what happens to us, if an H-bomb is dropped on NORAD's (North American Air Defense) back-up headquarters up at North Bay?  Or maybe Toronto?  This is really stupid."  

But I see now - of course - just like reading the Stock Market Quotations (when I did not understand much about them at all) - it is all part of a boy's education.  And the most important thing that your education teaches you, is that most people are truly fucking stupid.   And when you know absolutely nothing at all - this is a very hard lesson to learn, since even though the people of the world are idiots (Baka!), when you are a little kid - they ALL are smarter and more knowledgeable than you are.   So, this critical part of your education - this most important part, really - is actually very difficult to learn.   It takes repeated examples and demostrations, over and over again, for you to grasp this key fact.  But learn it, you must.

The book, "The Money Game", is a timeless classic, because not much has really changed in the stock markets, or in human behaviour.  The stock market does a very good job of reminding you, that you are still stupid yourself, and still have much to learn.  And also (of course), the more you learnj, the more you realize just how stupid you, yourself still are.   It is quite a comedy, really.

But what is curious, is that so few people allow themselves to endure this harsh education.  I suppose they wish to stay in their comfort zone.  Me, I just get bored.  But I do *not* want to use the market action for excitement!   I would like more boring, please.   But it is not to be.  If I am to make any money, it seems I must continue to endure terror and pain.  Or do I just set myself up for this?    I have trouble buying back a position I have sold - only to watch it gap up daily in price.   This happens often to me, and I find it very painful and frustrating and quite annoying.

It is worse than losing money, and this is curious.    The emotional side of the market investing/speculation process is the most difficult.  Perhaps it would not be so bad, if I were just a professional doing this with other people's money.  One could have a professional sense of detachment, like a doctor, operating on a screaming patient to save his life.  But using your own hard-won funds - it's much like trying to operate on yourself (which I have done), and it is just not very nice at all, to have to do that.

The technology (my various AI forecasting systems) offer some insight and guidence, but they don't really offer much of an edge.   A man's greatest edge comes from a heightened sense of intuition, like what a woman has.  For a scientist, this is tough to accept - but easier for a neural science hacker, since we now "know" that some serious and useful action-algorithms can be stored (deeply) in a very large neural-network of many neurons of slightly different trigger states.  This is a big piece of information, which can explain why intuition can actually happen.

The 1920's and the 1960's and the 1980's were all periods of boomtime markets.  And so was the period of the late 1990's, running up to the first "dot-com" bubble burst.  The September 11, 2001 terrorist attack changed things - but it provoked a massive (and necessary) response, which gave us another run, up to the 2008-2009 Housing-Fraud/Bad-Model Financial crisis and resulting meltdown.  And recently, we had the initial Covid-19 Crash, in the spring of 2020.  (Oops, forgot the big Russian Default in 1998, and the silly autumn 1987 burpfart in the US markets).  

What one learns - is that markets *need* to run these harsh, *reset* events, much like happens in a cheap video game, (and in pinballs games, which were the electro-tech gaming model before the computer).    You get a BING, BING, BING --- WHOOP - WHOOP - WHOOP kind of thing, which causes all the counters to be reset to zero.  Japan and Germany went thru this at the end of the Second World War, as did China.  (Russia endured this reset in 1917, and also at the collapse of the bankrupt (both morally and financially) Soviet Union, in the early 1990's).  England endured it during the time of Cromwell, and the Restoration, and France, during the time of the horrific "French Revolution" and the rise of Napoleon.  And for America - it was of course the breaking-free from the chains of English aristocratic foolishness - and their own Revolution, in which a diverse people successfully reset themselves to what they felt they wanted to be.   This is - of course - why America was and is so crazy successful.   They don't get reset by events - they reset themselves, harsh and cruel as it sometimes needs to be.

A rational student of history can say:  "Reset Events Happen."

And of now?   What about now?    All my research suggests:  "Big Global Reset" is about due.   It won't be a virus.  It won't likely be a nuclear war (it might be - but we doubt it... very very low probability event, we think), and it won't be space aliens arriving in a "first-contact" scenario (also a very, very low probability).  A "First Contact" scenario would be a lot of fun, but a nuclear war, not so much.   With radiation sickness, your hair falls out, an you vomit up all your food, and then dehydrate... and that's if you don't get caught in the resulting fire-storm.   And we have already had the Virus Plague, Version 1.0.    Maybe we get another major mutation, and a much more immediately lethal airborne virus - but we doubt this also.

So, for now, the next major "reset event" remains part of the unknown unknowns.  

If Putin is sufficiently stupid as to provoke and initiate the Third World War (which may actually be fought with electronic, targeted, yet "conventional" non-nuclear weapons), that might qualify, as it will be associated with a global collapse in trade and economic prosperity.   An effective way to stop an army, is to poison the soldier's food and water supply, make their weapons stop working,  render all their political and military leaders non-operative, and to treat those who surrender with respect, offering them comfort, good food, and safety.   

Starting an un-needed war so some Fat, Goose-Faced Pricks can live in large mansions watching strippers and drinking French brandy, while you sit in a muddy foxhole eating shit mixed with poison, is a bad plan for the Goose-Faced boys, and a really bad lifechoice for the poor fool soldiers.  It also raises the "risk of reset" for all concerned.

I always recall the words of the captured Revolutionary Leader, who was asked where he would get his army.  He looked at the General, and said simply:  "Why, I shall use your's, of course!" 

So, we know the Big Reset is coming.   We just don't know how and where it will begin - or even what it will look like.   But history teaches us it is looming up ahead, even if we cannot see it clearly yet.

[ Feb. 08, 2022 ] - Mourning Has Broken - Always best to let the Market itself set the theory, and not try to impose your theory on the Market.  Hard lesson that must be learned again and again.  Big shifts are underway, and big sh/t is happening.   The USA Government seems to be imploding, but we suspect this might be a good thing.  We want American to survive and be strong, and remain free.  For that to happen, the wuckfits currently in charge, must go down in flames.   This appears to be taking place, and so perhaps all is good and fine.

That seems to be what Mr. Market is saying.  Perhaps he is right.   (He usually is....)

[ Feb. 07, 2022 ] - Parallel Times (Game On) - "It's 11:59, and I want to stay alive."  (says the Bull Market...)    But nothing lives forever.    I have a complete scenario in which it all runs in reverse.  Not sure if this will really happen, but it most certainly looks possible.   The thing about Bear Market process, is that it seems to happen faster.  FInancial "bubbles' do not tend to deflate slowly - which is why we call them "Bubbles".  The idea of a "soft landing" is attractive, and perhaps it can be engineered. 

But historically, the market does a very good job of creating "reset events".   We have a whole little picture that suggests we need one of these now, as the alternative will be a runaway inflation which will cause much greater suffering further down the line, than a 20% downturn will now.   But of course, it may be more than a 20% downturn.

What concerns us most, is the extreme lack of wisdom, that we see everywhere, evident in every political process, in every national entity now.   It is curious and surprising, as if madness was being spread like a virus.  Perhaps?...     I found a copy of the 1959 film "On the Beach", and screened it on the weekend.  It is based on the Nevil Shute book, by the same name.  Highly recommended, despite its false scientific premise  ( An accidental global nuclear war creates a lethal radioactive cloud that does not decay, and slowly drifts down into the southern hemisphere, with South Australia the last place to expire.   Really a well done film, by director-producer Stanley Kramer.)  

The world ends by virtue of an automatic accident, driven by unwise political and military silly action and rapid-response pre-programming.     The only thing one can really do, is buy a Ferrari, and try to race it.  :)

The Game?

I've been re-reading a bunch of books in my little Library.  Some of them are timeless classics - and they have the singular attraction, in that they can help one make money.   How good is that?  (Hint: The answer is: Pretty fucking sweet, actually.  Learning - and winning - combined together, are fine and good things.   I think this might be why successful people deliberately self-destruct.  They can then have the excitement and pleasure of re-building, phoenix-like, from their horrific failure.  Unless they do a  "Hilter in the Bunker", and bring a complete Gotterdamerung down upon themselves, of course...)

I've re-read "The Zurich Axioms" again.  Highly recommended (secret advice: don't buy my book, if you can find a copy of this gem.  My book is way too expensive.)

Also, I am re-reading "The Money Game" by "Adam Smith" (a pseudonym of course).  It was written in the "Go-Go!" 1960's, a time of great exurberance, which was actually quite rational.  The stock market was flying.   Computers were becoming cheap enough so that schools and businesses could afford them, and scientists and statistical researchers and market-hackers could get time on IBM 360's and run programs to do amazing, clever things.  And they did.  

In the 1960's, with just drafting tables and slide-rules, the Americans built spaceships that could fly men to the Moon, land them there, and then return them safely to the Homeworld.   That was - truly - one hell of an accomplishment.   The technology was just *flying*.    And so was the stock market.    But the insane Vietnam war required Nixon to take USA off (completely) of any connection to the "gold standard".   This happened in 1971, as I recall.   The US dollar was no longer backed by anything at all - except the USA itself.  It was the USA's version of the "Rentenmark".   So it goes (or so it went...)   By the 1970's, the inflation began, and it just grew and grew.  It was ended with 20% short-term interest-rates, in 1980, by Mr. Paul Volker, chairman of the USA central bank, the Federal Reserve.  Those 20% rates (and much higher, for many borrowers), wiped out many businesses, and brought Ron Reagan to power as USA President.   The stupid-years of Jimmy Carter (and Pierre Trudeau in Canada) with gas-lines and price-controls and 20% annual inflation were over.  But it took real economic pain to make it happen, and clean up the hot mess the Leftists had created.

Note: In the 1970's, the USA stock market was dumpster diving.  The DJIA wandered between 1000 and the 600's.   If you *deflate* the stock prices, the 1970's was actually a spectacular market crash - but only in *real* dollar values.   It was pretty weirdly awful.   I was there, and it was a *lot* like the Great Depression.   If you graduated from University in 1969, the big companies and governments had recruiting booths at the University graduation ceremony.   Everyone was desperate to hire grads.  By 1978, if you graduated University then, (like me) you literally could not find any job without massive bush-beating and hard-core searching.   It was tragic-comical in the extreme - but a damn good start to one's real education!  

I had to move to another city, and got a junior-clerk-economist-programmer job for $800/month, and I thought I had died and gone to heaven.  So much money!!   Seriously, the 1970's were a lot like the 1930's, if you were coming out of school back then.   Inflation just kills economic growth & investment, and distorts the labour-market all to hell... at least it sure did in Canada.  It was just a shitshow of errors by policy-makers.   But the Big Reset in 1980-81 saved the world, I suspect.

So, in "Adam Smith's - The Money Game", I found this great paragraph, in his chapter about "Random Walks"  (which is really well written, and quite witty & amusing):

"If the Market is truly a Game, it would be possible to have the Game without any intrinsic values at all.  If part of the Game is that Bishop Berkeley's tree is down when everyone decides it is down, then there need not even be a tree.  If printers will print stock certificates, the New York Stock Exchange will stay open, and the banks will print out occasional dividends, we can have the whole Game even though all the steel plants and warehouses and railroads have mysteriously disappeared, as long as no one knows they have disappeared."

Well, how about that?   The chapter is called "What the Hell is a Random Walk".  Find the above paragraph, and then read the one after it - which is even more educational.  And true.  

It seems this quote about the "Game" pretty much describes "crypto-currencies", such as Bitcoin, yes?   Bitcoin is now an "asset class", right up there with "government bonds"  (another useless, and quite possibly fictional thing, right?)

We are in La-La Land now, people.   Seriously.  It is all Game now.   And I am really *wondering* just how the Game will Stop.   Nothing lasts forever, right?   :/   (<-- ascii frowny face indicating concern...)

Mr. O'Neill Tells Some Truth:

Most "news" information everywhere now is poop.   It's getting quite curious - yet every so often, some old guy tells the truth, because he is at the end of his career, has enough "fuckyou" money, and is also near the end of his life.  I think this Mr. O'Neill might fall into this catagory.  He was Chief Economist at Goldman Sachs and was also a Minister of the Crown, in the U.K.   Boomerberg has him quoted as saying:  Officials at Central Banks, specifically the Bank of England,  "don't have the slightest idea what has really happened or what is going on" with the surging inflation.    Well, Hell's Bells!   About time someone said this.   It's what I have been thinking for several months now.  I am unique - in that I studied inflation seriously in school, wrote papers on Nixon's failed price-control efforts, studied the German inflation in 1920 to 1923, and then actually worked as an Anti-Inflation Economic Cop.  Really.   I actually know quite a lot about this nutty problem.   I know how it starts, how and why it gets going, and what has to be done (quickly) to stop it. 

I worked as a Juniour G-Man at the "Anti-Inflation Board" in Canada in 1976 - the insane Price and Wage and Income control program set up by Pierre Trudeau to "address the Inflation Problem in Canada".  It was bloody great to have a real job, even if it was just a summer-job.   I really needed the money.  Why?  Because I had none!  So, I joined the Law, and the Law won, but so did I!

I learned how to be an effective consultant (since I was the only one who could get the APL terminals working, set up accounts with a computer service bureau, get the taxpayer data (anonymized) as tapes from Revenue Canada, get them read using my APL workspaces at IST, and truly *see* what was actually happening to price and incomes of professionals in Canadian cities.)    It honestly was a wonderful first job, even if the whole idea was quite insane and unworkable.   You can learn a *lot* trying to do something that is basically impossible - ie. control other people's prices and incomes.  It was just economic insanity - and most employees knew this - but we had real jobs in a bitched economy, and having an income was great, since it meant I could fund more schooling, which was showing evidence of paying off nicely, even before it was completed!   And I learned what caused inflation (too much non-productive spending, too much non-productive money floating around, and bad, bad, not-good government policy.)   And I also learned that price-controls are the dumbest idea ever invented.   This knowledge has been valuable and actionable.  

Anyway - bravo to Mr. O'Neill.   I think he is spot-on in his analysis.   Here is link:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-07/jim-o-neill-says-the-boe-is-raising-rates-to-save-credibility?smd=markets-vp

[ Feb. 05, 2022 ] - Chev Brakes are Snarling - "As you stumble across the road, but the day breaks instead, so you hurry home..."  

I think this really might be the Great Bubble, but I could be wrong.  Anyone remember Drexel Burnham Lambert?  How about Birnam Forest, from Macbeth? 

There is a thing from Shakespeare that I have to find - my mom used to quote it.  She grew up in an era of extremely high quality education, in Ontario.  It was really good - I know, because I have her old textbooks, and they are astonishingly well written.  (Let's try Google... and bingo, found it.  "Macbeth.  Act V, scene 3, in Dunsinane Castle:  Macbeth is muttering to himself, before the Doctor enters...)

"I have lived long enough: my way of life
Is fall'n into the sear, the yellow leaf;
And that which should accompany old age,
As honour, love, obedience, troops of friends,
I must not look to have; but, in their stead,
Curses, not loud but deep, mouth-honour, breath,
Which the poor heart would fain deny, and dare not.  "

Honestly, we have lost so much, people just have no idea.  Kids studied this stuff in High School.   They learned Ancient History, English history, European history, studied Latin, read Julius Caesar in his own Latin:  The "Bellus Gallica" - or "Wars in Gaul".  Great stuff.  I have her 1939 Grade 13 Physics textbook, and it is just a well done piece of work.  The 1930's in North America, were probably the most significant, successful time of human scientific and engineering development of all time - quite surprising.   The Great Depression might actually have been a curiously good thing, which is hard to believe or accept.  But it might be true, nevertheless.. 

We live in a world now, where debt-driven financial puff-bubbles are not allowed to be deflated.  This has brought some benefit (and really wild benefits to a few folks), but perhaps it has cost us honest progress, and what could have been a better future.  

The world seems to be running on a dangerous mixture of high levels of ever-growing debt and hard-core deception.   Borrowed-money and lies - the fuel we will run on when the oil runs out and the grid goes dark.  :)

[ Feb. 04, 2022 ] - Greek Whine - I made a comment about "gamma hedging" which was unclear.  The "Delta" of an Option contract is the rate of change of the option contract price, based on a change in the price of the underlying security price the option is written on.  The "Gamma" is the rate of change of the Delta, based on change in the underlying security price.   Option contract sellers (writers of Put and Call options), will make buy and sell transactions in the underlying securities (the shares themselves, in the case of stock options),  to hedge their risk of being on the wrong side of a big move in share prices.   This "delta hedging" and "gamma hedging" is thought to make the market price for shares more volatile - which itself will affect the underlying delta and gamma values.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/greeks.asp

Systems which are gated and controlled by feedback mechanisms - based on parameters that are a direct result of system operation - are subject to uncontrolled, self-re-enforcing, violent oscillations.   Minor errors in control settings can lead to oscillations which can destroy the system.   

People are not completely stupid.  If all the pros are market-hacking so as to try to lay-off risk on someone else, so they can make easy, low-risk money, the market will become "tired", and this becomes evident in the drying-up of liquidity.    No one wants to play in a casino where only the employees can make money.  

PKO and Dark Pools:   (Ontario Whine)

Let me be clear - all this is just speculation.  We (& I, myself) have no direct knowledge of exactly what is happening now.  But my sense is, is that "Price Keeping Operations" are now in serious, active use, (especially in small, easy-to-hack markets like Canada), and the existence of the various "Dark Pool" exchanges (where market price depth and action cannot be observed) are making the marketplace environment very curious - some might even say dangerous.

It appears that for some big stocks trading in Canada, the prices are not really being set by market forces.   And this is, of course, the way the big boys want it to be.     The women at OSC (it is all women, now, in all these little ABC's - Agencies, Boards and Commissions (basically patronage appointments as pay-off for Party activity)) - have no clue just how serious a problem this is.

What results from this kind of play, is that by successfully keeping market-forces at bay (on Bay Street..), the action-responses by market forces that do finally take place, are *MUCH BIGGER* and more non-linear, than would otherwise be the case, if the old TSE (Toronto Stock Exchange) was actually being used for price-discovery action. 

As a far-outside "retail trader", we have virtually no window at all, on what is really happening.  It's quite comical.   We are flying blind, really.   What we can determine, by watching the strange price action we see, is that somewhere else, is where the real action is taking place.    Of course, I cannot prove this, or even offer hard evidence.   It just feels that way.

What I can say, is that the price-action data that I can see during the day - just looks completely bogus.   It does not look like people are involved, (of course, algorithmic-driven computerized trading can explain this), and even more so, it appears that the real action is taking place somewhere else, and that the TSX quotes are reflecting this post-hoc (after the fact).    Of course, this is not a new phenomenon.  In the old days, it could 10 or 20 minutes, to get a valid quote from the NYSE, via telephone, from a broker.   There has always been "information confrontation" in the marketplace,   Money is made by the bogusization process... (is that a word?)

But it has become particularly evident now, given the PKO actions that the big players are able to use.   And I notice this (of course), since it has effectively impacted our little "stat arb" business.

A little market rhyme:  "Balls to yer partner, Asses to the wall.  If you don't get fucked on a Saturday nite, ya won't get fucked at all!"   (Except unless you are a retail trader in Canada...)   :)

[ Feb 03, 2022 ] - Shock the Monkey - Strange times - market is weak today, indexes all down, but the financials are like girls, with fingers in their ears and their eyes closed, singing: "La La La La ... LA - I *can't* hear you!"

Bank shares are interesting, in that they trade a lot like very long duration bonds - like the old 100-year railroad bonds, that were considered such sound investments - before the automobile made railroads such a different business.   Values of Bank stocks are driven by net interest margins, people-costs, growth prospects, and so on. And also by the interest-rate environment - higher rates means more loan revenue, but also higher costs for money raised by equity and bond sales.  It's the margin that matters, like in most business models, not the absolute levels of things.  Except for the collateral.  Bank stocks mostly are given intrinsic value, based on the total value of the underlying assets they have recourse to, if loans are defaulted upon.  Bank fnancials are curious, since the bank's "assets" are it's loans and the financial paper it holds (which themselves are just IOU's), and their "liabilities" are the cash that is has taken in on deposit from depositors.   The whole business model lives and dies on the results of what are hopefully the successful management of the asset and liability values.  

Loan quality is critical.  The bank wants regular payments to be made.  And it needs to have some assurance that money loaned can be paid back by whomever it is loaned to.  The bank usually has - for significantly large loans - some legal recourse to the title of the property, that a borrower uses the money to purchase - a car, a house, a business, a commercial property, and financial paper, such as shares or bonds or future's contracts, and such.

Banks get in trouble, when they loan too much, to too few, and defaults start to happen.   But defaulted loans are manageable, if the bank has been clever about obtaining collateral.

And so here is what is interesting:  Ultimately, the value of a money-loaning institution is baseline valued by the value of the collateral it is holding, to secure it's loans.  If you buy a house for 300,000 dollars, and get a 200,000 mortgage from the bank (a long term loan), your house is the security for the loan, and the bank has recourse to your house (they can take ownership and sell the house to recover the money they loaned), if you bugger off, and don't pay your mortgage.   If the market value of your house falls to 100,000 dollars, both you and the bank have a problem.  This is what happened to houses in the USA, back in 2006 to 2009 - the "financial crisis" which was really a fraud-crisis in house-price valuation and loan "hacking" to create synthetic loan-types with various risk levels (*and yields*), which could be packeged and sold as bonds, to get the risk off the bank's books.  Except it all went wrong, when it became clear the models used to estimate risk-features were bogus, because they made silly assumptions about human and market behaviour.   (Blah blah blah .... right?)

Much of a bank's intrinsic value (and hence the worth and value of it's share price), is determined by the quality of the collateral back-stopping the loans.  If your 300,000 dollar example house, with the $200,000 mortgage becomes worth $1,000,000 (which is pretty much what has happened now in Canada housing markets), then the bank stock prices can be expected to rise, since the mortgage loans are backstopped by *lots and lots* of extra collateral.  And of course, this same process is at work in the commercial loan market.  As business conditions improve, the business-loans are safer, and bank profits are more certain to occur, and default risk falls.   Everyone benefits.

But the bank equity is still risky, since if the interest-rate environment changes, and maybe changes a bit too fast, *ALL* the collateral asset values can shift downwards pretty quickly.  This is what caused the early 2020 collapse in bank share prices - the pandemic was expected to kill the economy (it didn't), and the asset values of all that bank collateral - houses, business, financial paper, etc. was expected to collapse (it didn't also).  The money taps were turned on, and for most folks (not us), money flowed to keep things ticking along.   We all survived nicely.

And so right now, everything looks really, *really* good for the banks.   But if some global event happens - an event that affects everyone and all valuations - such as a big inflation (which messes up so much), or sharply rising interest-rates, or a minor stock-market downturn, things can run quickly in reverse.  And everyone knows this.   Rising interest rates might seriously impact both house-price values, and business-valuations, and this in turn reduces - maybe a lot - the value the bank loan collateral, which makes the bank loans (the bank's assets) a LOT more risky.  We are concerned that ANY rise in interest rates, which is enough to impact and reduce inflation, will ALSO almost certainly begin a revaluation in collateral economic-values, especially house prices.    The average price - and I mean the AVERAGE selling price of a residential house in the small urban area near where we live, has now moved ABOVE 1 million Canadian dollars.   

This seems extreme and a bit crazy to us.  Of course the bank stocks are up, and the banks are very profitable - right now. 

But if interest rates are raised enough to stop the runaway inflation that is already happening, we can almost certainly expect to see the house price changes start to run in reverse.   Even very minor interest-rate increases (which will have to happen soon to limit the inflationary spiral that is starting), will have significant impact.   It all might unwind *very* quickly.  This is usually how it happens, if one looks thru history.   These financial bubbles do not tend to burst slowly.

By the summer months, it would not be unreasonable to see house prices down by 15% to 20%.  It won't be a "housing crisis", but it might knock the Canadian bank stock prices down 20% or maybe even more, given just how much those equity values typically move during periods of "interest-rate shock".

It takes very little change in the interest-rate environment, to shock those Bank Stock monkeys.

War News:   "False Flag" attacks planned by Russia, "Information Confrontation" (Fake Videos) Planned to be Used to Mislead Russian People to Create War Support

https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/russia-ukraine-u-s-intelligence/2022/02/03/id/1055377/

Jesus Christ, "False Flag Attack" scams?  Like in Poland, as was done in Danzig (Gdansk) to start World War 2?   Is El Presidente Putinski going full Adolf?   What the hell is going wrong with Russia?   Why are they going so wildly and completely off the rails?   They seem determined to self-destruct, along with that murderous psychopath Lukashenko of Belarus.    The only thing these guys know how to do, is to hurt, abuse, kill, cheat and do aircraft hi-jackings, it seems.    They think they are being so clever with their spy-toads running around killing and kidnapping people, and faking up these ugly, vicious phony spy tricks.   

Honestly and truly, if Putin and Lukashenko invade Ukraine, we should rain devices down on where ever Putin and Lukashenko are located.  These two thugs could then play their fucking war games in Hell, and we will have also solved the problems to two abused nations. 

[ Feb. 02, 2022 ] -  Silly Times

We posted the current AI C_machine forecast, in the "Trading Notes" section.  We unloaded the trading portfolio positions today.  Risk-off.  Market looks serious stretched, the world is preparing for war (really, it is, even if you just don't see it all yet.)   Putin is of course, telling silly lies, in the old KGB "Information Confrontation" model context.  That man is going to get his head handed to him - not by Free World forces - but probably by wise and rational Russians.   Not everyone in that nation is a toady.  There are some very good people in Russia - and they are not *all* in prison.)

But ugly and foolish conflict seems to be the programmed project for the dictators of the world.  They see a weak and conflicted USA, and they see this as a chance to act.  This is why the USA should not mess around with it's voting process, and make their elections even more fakery and fraud exercises.   The "Democrats" are trying to fake-up the election process - and call it "Voter's Rights."    They are lying - and so are the journalists - and everyone knows this. 

The integrity of America is critical to the peace of the world, and the integrity of American politics rests firmly on the integrity of it's honest, fair, and proven, true democratic process.  "Mail-In" voting, verified only by a scribbled signature - is just ballot-box stuffing.  Do not be misled by the fraud Biden and his people are promoting. 

We despair at times, at the extreme foolish insanity that seems to characterize modern political process.  We are in for a "life during wartime" lifestyle - but again, most folks have no clue just how completely and utterly fouled up are the brains of the "leaders" who are going to allow so much unnecessary economic destruction to take place.

Our current political process model seems to take the very worst people, who are the least qualified for their jobs, and put them into positions of great authority.  The only counter to this democratic model, is the military-managed, neo-fascist model of hellhole failure nations, like Belarus, Syria, North Korea and Afghanistan.   So we are stuck with democracy, as the least-awful political model.   What is disturbing, is to see the "Democratic Party" in the USA, try to assault and butcher traditional American governance systems and election procedures.   This is not good.

Nothing good at all can result from this idiotic exercise, and that "Great Failure", Joe Biden, and his curiously racist groups of "woke" henchmen (and henchwomen!), yet seem determined to proceed with their foolish, destructive strategies.   Obviously, like the Liberals here in Canada, they are seeking to mask their bad actions with the Covid-19 pandemic crisis.  Every nation seems to be taking advantage of the pain and suffering of it's people, to further entrench the centralization of abusive political power - and place it in the hands of dishonest lightweights.   (History shows this to be a sadly successful model. It works so very well for clever, bad people.)

FD:  We feel that most of this action is - honestly, really and truly - quite market negative.  Actions are being taken everywhere - by so many political opportunists and pocket-fillers - to degrade wise process and the historically verified political and economic procedures.

We need to change the bad players on the stage, not burn down the whole playhouse.  

[ Feb. 01, 2022 ] - Is it the Failure of History, or the History of Failure? - We read the increasingly strange and disturbing news from the USA, and other areas, and find it scary.  The Supreme Court of America is to become a racist laughingstock, it seems.  A large, black vagina will be seated as a Judge.  Biden has promised to appoint a negro female to be a top court judge.  Those are the stated qualifications.    It seems curious that such an overt example of racist action can be made to occur in a nation which seeks to avoid racist actions on the part of it's government authorities.   Joe Biden appears to be the worst example of a President we have ever observed. 

He is truly and without question, a "sock-puppet" of dark forces.

Justice - and judges - should be "colour blind" - and not be expected to make decisions based on racial preference.   Decisions made based on racial preference are racist.  There is no other rational way to view this.  It is best, if governments avoid explicit racist policy actions.  

War News: (from 1936)

It is very instructional, and enlightening, to read the actual speech that Ethiopian leader, Haile Selassie (aka "Ras Tafari") made to the "League of Nations" in June of 1936.  He was asking the League (52 nations) to honour collective security committments made and to act against the extreme aggression that the Italian Fascist Government had taken against Ethiopia.  The speech is short, sharp and prophetic, and Selassie's warning to the world is as clear now, as it was then:  If powerful nations are allowed to use military means to invade and crush smaller nations, then all nations are at risk, and war must result.

https://www.mtholyoke.edu/acad/intrel/selassie.htm

History has shown us clearly, that a "League of Nations" that does not have the means to send in the bombers, and take direct action against aggressor entities, is little more than a political cover mechanism, designed to create a grand illusion that can mask and facilitate invasion plans and military conquest.   Politicians can talk and talk, and treaties can be signed, but if there are not clear provisions for the bombers to be sent in against the invading gangster-army, the entire political talking process is just a great fraud.

The tragic costs of "President" Biden's horrific Afghanistan withdrawal continue to grow.  It's graphic depiction of the collapse and failure of American military power, has emboldened the militarists and bad-guy governments all over our small planet.   

The failure of the old League of Nations to act, so carefully described by Haile Selassie so long ago, mirrors in history the failures of our present-day "United Nations", now that America has withdrawn from the world, and seems intent on inverting and perverting all that it has historically stood for.   Nothing really changes, we are so often reminded.

Our models suggest, that as America fights with itself, and an unwise USA Government seeks to overturn it's own wisely crafted old rules and procedures, it can be expected that similar levels of conquest-conflict and rule-breaking will be manifest in the world at large.    And indeed, evidence suggests this is happening almost everywhere now. 

The Bad Guys are marching their soldiers, expanding their Armies of Conquest, and crushing any of their own citizens who oppose their plans of domination & conquest.  

The outcome of all this, is not difficult to predict. 

Market Notes:

Have you noticed that the stock market is very squirrelly lately?   It's acting nutty, and a reason has been supplied by analysts Rocky Fishman at Goldman Sachs and Marko Kolanovic at JP Morgan.  Briefly, they are pointing out that options writers are negative "gamma', which means that the fatboys writing the hedging contracts (ie. they are selling puts and calls) are having to buy into rising markets, and sell into falling markets - and this (along with traders using simple but effective trend-following models) will obviously stimulate market volatility.

Here is the note (on BBN-B-berg for those without Booperberg subscriptions...)

https://ampvideo.bnnbloomberg.ca/stock-market-chaos-revved-up-by-options-dealers-rushing-to-hedge-1.1716279.amp.html

This makes sense.  Liquidity does seem off.  Everyone is trying to use their mega-giant-all-the-data-there-is datasets to game the system, and *everyone else* knows this.  It makes for a kind of truly crazy market, characterized by low willingness to trade, and self-accelerating moves in prices.   ("Gamma", one of the option-pricing model's parameters, is a measure of the sensitivity of the option price to changes in the price of the underlying stock, or whatever market-priced financial asset you have the put or call option upon.  The premium or price of the option will be higher, if the stock that the option is written on, bounces around a lot. )

Option "dealers" or writers of option contracts - which are often purchased by portfolio holders to hedge big changes in portfolio prices - themselves need to hedge, and they do this by buying or selling amounts of the underlying stocks they are writing their puts or calls upon.

What seems to be happening now - is that liquidity is shrinking or kind of going away, as folks are reluctant to take positions in violently swinging markets, and at the same time, the more the market swings wildly, the more the options dealers who wish to hedge, have to trade with the trend, and this of course, will amplify the swings.  And the wilder the swings, the less likely will be market liquidity and market depth.

"No shit, Sherlock.." is kind of my reaction.  I have watched a low-beta testbed thing that we mess around with (and also hold in a portfolio) swing violently in the last four weeks.  We remain constructive and fully, all-in long, since there is just too much cash sloshing around in the system, as near as I can tell.  (I am way, way outside of everything, understand.  I may as well be on Mars.  I have only "outside" information.  :D )  We've learned it's dangerous to be out of the market.

I am seeing a curiously twitchy and violent market, which I had assumed was mostly just the front-running circus.   Or maybe bad data?   It just seems to be wrong.  The prices are just WRONG half the time, and it is weird.  If I was a kid, in the city, I would be trading fast against this weirdness, but we are old now, and very cautious, and mostly don't even use margin.

The key takeaway here, is that attempts by the pros to lay off market risk, seems to be increasing market risk - at least as so much as risk is correlated with volatility.  (I feel sometimes like Kurtz in "Apocolypse Now": ... "We must learn to make a friend of risk.")     We try to make a friend of volatility.   But it's still more like a frenemy, than a true friend...   Crazy world now, arimasu.

What we seem to have learned, is that it is most risky to lose one's position in an inflationary economy.  Like some people we knew many years ago, who sold their house for $500,000, which seemed a King's ransom, back then.  I told the woman to re-position right way, and not wait for lower prices, but she and her husband decided to rent, and wait for prices to fall.  The house they sold, is now worth maybe $1,500,000 or more (a nice place in the country).   By exiting the market, they gave up a tax-free gain of roughly 1 million dollars - and chose instead to fatten the pockets of some landlord person.

You have to learn to love volatility, and realize that whatever number you see quoted - that number is wrong.  And yet, like the mythical quantum cat in the box, the number is also right.  The wave function only collapses (and you know what the true price is), when you take action to sell the stock.

[ Jan. 31, 2022 ] - Sing a Song of Sixpence - And a pocket full of rye?  Whatever.  The Earth spins, the seasons change, and who can truly know why.    We are currently, delighted by randomness.  God does not roll dice, of course.  We are certain now, that god "IS" the rolling dice.   Many people reject randomness, and/or fail to see it's perfect, divine beauty.   What so many sad, simple people fail to see, is that they won the biggest celestial lottery of all time, just by being born.    

The news today indicates that the curious lad we have as our PM here in Canada, has Covid-19, despite being multiply-vaccinated.   We ourselves have been double vaccinated, and have being trying to arrange for the "booster" shots, but so far, no luck.   We've gotten on a list to get on a list at our local pharmacy, but nothing so far.   As mentioned, my living family members have all contracted Omicron Covid, and were quite sick, but appear now to have recovered.  I suspect we had the thing probably back in November, when we both thought we had colds.  Folks in cities get testing kits.  Folks in the country - we get immunity.   The word "immunity" comes from the Latin word "munus", which according to my Oxford Dictionary, means "public burden".   Oh my, but nothing really changes, does it?   :D    

https://www.news24.com/news24/World/News/canadas-justin-trudeau-says-tests-positive-for-covid-19-20220131 

We wish Mr. Trudeau a speedy recovery.  And we hope he can soon resume his teaching duties, once this astonishing period of foolishness comes to an end.    :)

War News:

Why are the nations of the Free World, and the United Nations in particular, not assisting the People's Defense Forces in Myanmar, in their fight against the brutal, sadistic military-Fascist regime that has deposed the elected leader of that nation, and plunged that nation into terrorist horror?  It is curious just how worthless and non-effective the United Nations has now become.

It so reminds us of our historical studies of Ethiopia, and how it was overrun by Italian Fascists in the 1930's.   Ras Taferi, (also known as: Haile Selassie) the Ethiopian King, spoke at the League of Nations in June of 1936, and forcast the future, when he said that if his nation was allowed to be overrun by an invading fascist military force, then the conflict would spread to other nations, and affect the whole world..  He said basically:  "It is us today, it will be you tomorrow, if you do not act to stop this."   When he rose to speak at the political forum known as the "League of Nations", he was hooted and jeered by Italian Fascist journalists.  (Yes, some journalists often *are* the lowest form of human life on this planet, it seems.  Little ever really changes.)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2BiAduMYj-0

Ethiopia in 1937 is like Myanmar in 2022.   It basically does not matter geopolitically - no oil, no nuclear weapons, etc.  So, a terrible crime is ignored and accepted by an indifferent world.  But this failure to act, will cost us all.  

The fascist regime that has taken power in Myanmar, and now engages in systematic murder of it's own people, is able to violate all laws and norms of civilized society, and no one cares enough to send in the bombers.  This, we feel, is a great error.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-60144957

We suspect a low-cost campaign of arming the resistance forces, and selectively bombing the military installations that support the fascist junta-government might yield significant, positive results, and would send clear messages to other thug-dictators that civil society cannot simply be overwritten by a small group of military gangsters & political criminals.   

The citizens of Myanmar have no choice, but to resist the brutal thug gangsters that have siezed power in their country.  When I see the BBC photos of the young kids, using home-made bamboo firearms, against the Chinese-supplied weapons the fascist Myanmar military has, it is just heartbreaking.   The price of freedom has always been blood.  But must every nation endure a cruel civil war, before it learns to protect itself from it's own murderous political gangsters? 

I would urge - as an old historian - that the kids in Myanmar, fighting the sadistic thug military of Myanmar, use some old tricks from the Spanish Civil War.  Take a razor blade, and break it in half, and tape the piece behind your ear.  It's purpose is to use it to cut your own carotid artery in your neck, if you are overrun, and certain to be captured.  There is one artery on each side of the neck:

https://medlineplus.gov/ency/imagepages/9552.htm

https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/neuroscience/external-carotid-artery 

The fighters in the Spanish Civil War took particular care to ensure that  they would not fall into the hands of the Fascist Government soldiers, while alive, for obvious reasons.   The young Freedom Fighters in Myanmar should probably consider taking similar precautions.  They are on a long, hard road, and we wish them luck and good fortune and of course, ultimate victory.

[ Jan 28, 2022 ] - The Highways of Death - But even if we cannot deploy nuclear weapons to Ukraine, perhaps we can at least use the modern A-10 "Warthog" units & J-STARS technology, to give the Russian invaders a taste of what the Iraqi rapists and thieves who stormed Kuwait in 1991 got.    The famous (and truly wonderful example) is the "Highway of Death" that was visited upon the murderous, criminal forces of Saddam Hussein's goons, as they tried to leave Kuwait with all the stolen property.  It stands out in history, as the most perfect example of what should happen to an invading thug army.

https://forums.spacebattles.com/threads/iraqi-forces-were-annihilated-while-retreating-on-the-highway-of-death-25-years-ago.374029/

It really was a fine, successful deployment of the right technology at the right place, in the right way, at the right time.  It was a justified military exercise, and Biden should simply explain that this technology will be directed against the New Russian Threat invaders, if they move into Ukraine.   Take a closer look, here:

https://www.amusingplanet.com/2016/05/the-highway-of-death.html

Putin is acting unwise and almost insane.  He will just be handing his soldiers a lot of destruction and death.  He's behaving like some spoiled Russian woman, and he should get a close look at what war really looks like, before he decides to start one.  He might start it, but it will be Free World Forces that will have to finish it.  We will have to knock him off his golden toilet,   And then again, we will see Russia be plunged into chaos, conflict and poverty.  And for what?  So Putin can have more golden toilets?   The Russian people should see where the threat they are facing is coming from - not from outside their nation, but from within.

One has to be clear, when communicating with bad guys.  It is tragic that Putin has dragged his nation down in this manner.  We now fully have the technology to solve these kinds of problems caused by meglomaniac "leaders" who enable the actions of thieves and political gangsters. 

What we need here and now in the Free World, is the firm political will to deploy the necessary technical methods to address the problem, and stop political gangsterism.   The best way to deal with a Terror Army is to destroy it so completely, that it can never again be used to threaten anyone, anywhere, ever again.

[ Jan 27, 2022 ] - Life During Wartime - Russia seems to really want to have a war.   Putin has lost any sense of discretion or perspective, and basically, we - all of us - have a serious problem now.   The Russians do not grasp how much North Americans indentify with the Ukrainians.  It's curious - I think of the number of Ukrainians I have met, worked with, and gotten to know socially.  There are a surprising number in this country, for many different reasons.  I even met a 90+ year old Stalinist, who tried to justify the mass-murder of the "Kulaks" - a Russian-language term for the over 1 million Ukrainian farmers who were systematically killed or starved to death, after their property was expropirated for Soviet "Collective Farms".  

I suppose we indentify with the Ukrainians because much of the province of Alberta was settled by them.   The place gets to be -40 celsius in the winter, and it seems only the Ukrainians could survive - and prosper - in that sort of climate.   And then, of course, oil was discovered, and everyone got rich.

What this aggression by Putin's Terror Army has demonstrated, is that a nation *must* have serious, extreme weapons to ensure it's defense.  Russia has something like 2200 tactical nuclear weapons, which it is able to deploy and threaten it's neighbours with.  The nation of Ukraine has **ZERO**.   They have none.   Nothing at all, do they have, that can counter this New Russian Threat.

This is simply madness.  The French and the British understand, and so do the Americans.  You must have a "Force de Frappe", as the French call it  or you will - with certainty, at some point in the future - be overrun by bandit entities that do have such weapons.

There is foolish nonsense talk, that suggests that certain weapons should be banned, because of their destructive characteristics.  Weapons are supposed to be destructive.  Such idiocy is simply crazy talk the unwise, the insane, or by dishonest fraudsters who seek political advantage.   They trade on the fear and lack-of-wisdom of the foolish common people (there are oh-so-many of those, are there not?), and this is tragic.

We could solve the Ukrainian problem in 12 hours, by deploying a whole series of non-mobile tactical nuclear devices.  They could be encased in large concrete bunkers, and deployed all along the border, and in major productive farming areas.   They would be stationary, and would pose no threat at all, to neighbouring nations.  But if the Homeland were invaded by hostile forces, they could be detonated, sequentially, along the pathways of any military assault.

The endgame would be - either peaceful co-existance with mutually beneficial trading relations - or THE ABSOLUTE CERTAINTY OF THE INVADER TRIGGERING A NUCLEAR HOLOCAUST.  What benefit then, would military conquest offer the murderous invader?  None at all.

What folks need to understand, is that it is exactly this model that prevented conflict between the major powers, since the last use of nuclear weapons on civilian targets, in Japan of 1945.  We have had peace and prosperity for over 60 years in the Free West - directly as a result of the major-powers having nuclear weapons.

With big nukes at your disposal - and the recognition that the other side also has these big weapons - a big war is CERTAIN to be a very, very bad trade, for each side.

This gave us peace and freedom, unlike the World has ever known in all it's earlier history.  

Arm the Ukrainians with real weapons, equivalent to what the New Russian Threat has, and call Putin's bluff.  If his goons are still willing to attack the citizens of Ukraine, then it's Dr. Strangelove time - with 100 percent certainty.  And that's the key.    Biden is an aging, Leftist fool, because he talks in terms of *costs*.   Putin and his gangster cronies need to understand that if they pull the trigger on a military invasion - if they try another 1956 in Hungary, or a 1968 in the Czech Republic, they will be "going nuclear", and the results will be mass destruction for everyone involved.  Only that level of certainty will ensure a lasting peace. 

[ Jan 26, 2022 ] - Fake Data Everywhere?  (And Omicron Everywhere...)- The data I am seeing from TSX (via some skanky IBM re-transmission thing, on the trading platform we use) looks fake.    I mean it is just fake - it does not look real.   The real market is soemwhere else, and we are being served this slightly-delayed, fake-style derivative stuff, that is designed to provoke action.   it's just wrong - like some kind of 19th century bucket-shop shit.   Seriously - it is weirdly kinky, and feels just fake.   Maybe it is technically not, but something is seriously wrong.

1/2 hour left in the day.  We remain all-in, long.  Insane, absurd, wild-arsed ride.  Gamestop would be better than most of the facking "blue chip" shit, it's just hilarious.   Our test-bed security (in which we pretend to be pseudo-specialists), is all over the freaking map today.  We don't watch CNN or the news-feeds during the day, so I don't know what the Washington monkeys said to each other - but we just expect the inflation will be allowed to run pretty hard, for quite a while, since that is the only rational option in the economic playbook.  Raising rates too quick here, could trigger a spectacular downturn, and even the folks that operate at the central banks must know this.   We have dialed back everything, except the long-position risk.  The AI is less wildly constructive, but there is just no option for a jump to 3% or 4%.    So, conditions remain super-easy, for 6 to 12 months.   But these "stop-gun runs" (see the ancient WSJ article "Gunning for Stops" if you can find it in the archive) will continue with aggression, since they are algo-triggered.  It's nuts.

Silly times.   And then a war.   Oh my.

Later the same day...: [ 10:00 PM update:]

Ok, So I repaired this 1927 regenerative receiver radio I have - a "DeForest - Crosley" - literally made in 1926 or 1927, all original, UV-201 4 triodes, and some really bright amplifing triode - not counting the diode tube in the power supply - and I was listening to a Toronto AM station - and I heard our Prime Minister annouce he is sending 60 Canadian soldiers to Ukraine, and has also loaned the Ukraine gov't somewhere around 100 million of our dollars, somthing like that.   So, I stand corrected, Canada is doing SOMETHING at least.   Sixty Canadians, vs 100,000 Russians... ok, sounds about right, makes for a fair fight... but still, maybe we could add a few more guys?  You know, ensure victory and all that?

Also, heard Tiff Macklem explain that at some point, there will be some interest rate up-moves,so that is good also.  Probably wise to move a tad slowly.    So, Ford is in his T-Model, and all is right with the World?   (Maybe....)

It's quite wonderful, actually using the old ancient radio, connected to a long-line antenna, to receive the news.   The internet has become horribly toxic, and so useless - it's quite comical, and almost "theatre of the absurd" kind of thing...   I suppose we are all waiting for Godot now.  ("Stupid son-of-a-btich", to use Biden's term...)     But nice we can actually get direct audio clips from the actual people themselves...   Certainly not possible on the internet anymore...    :)

[ Even later update:]  Oh hell.   My nephew called, and he and his wife and kids all got Covid.  They are recovering, and apparently doing ok (looks like it was Omicron, and in the throat, not deep in the lungs), so although they were sick for a few days (the younger kids apparently got more sick than the adults), but they are all now on the mend, and feeling much better.    They are outside of the City, up at the cottage.  They were all triple-vaccinated.   Looks like *everyone* will get the Omicron Covid variant.  They were pretty careful - but a virus is a virus.   Crazy times.

[ Jan. 25, 2022 ] - And Here Comes the FUN! - How much FUN can you stand?  I am finding the AI model works.  As the user, I am using it badly, for various reasons that are known to neural-researchers and behavioural economists.  But the AI thing I have built - after many, many experiments and outright failures - seems to capture the essense of things.  Just re-read Jesse Livermore's little monograph on how to trade int stocks.  Pivotal points are real, I am coming to believe.  He was a clever fellow, and a man of real honour.  Our world is very different now - but maybe not as different as it seems.

War with China and Russia would be *really* stupid, and yet it looks like it is likely to occur.  This is very curious.

[ Jan. 24, 2022 ] - Here Comes the SUN! - Oops, no, looks like we're wrong.  It's actually the flash from the air-burst fusion device...  expect the blast-front in a few more seconds, since light travels so much faster than sonic shock waves.  

US and UK have withdrawn non-essential embassy personel from Kiev.   Putin has no idea just what sort of an arrogant fool he is being.  Once this "mobilize for war" shit gets started, it gets really goddamn hard to stop.   If that money-spy guy had real brains, he would study the FIRST World War, and see how it basically started pretty much on automatic.  "Oh oh, crisis! Let's mobilize!"  The other side sees this, and says: "Hey, look!  Those guys are mobilizing, and calling up all their soldiers!  What should we do?  Well, we better at least mobilize also!"  This is how the "Great War" started.  It was very much, not-so-great.

The "Nuke'em Till They Glow" Problem:

Many planners have quietly suggested that a big, solid shooting war with Russia might be needed to fix the "Putin Problem", and perhaps we could enlist the assistance of the Russian people themselves.   (Do they really want to live as dominated near-slaves serving their "Glorious Leader", while living their grim, cold lives?  Maybe not.   Like the Chinese - who are probably ready to "Cull the Communists", and ensure that the future is healthy and free, and not tainted by lab-leaked, gain-of-function murder-the-world virus agents.   People are not always completely stupid - to paraphrase Mr. A. Lincoln )

This idea of a world run by abusive, dishonest "potentates" who run crooked courts and abuse, imprison and/or just kill their own people - maybe it is really, actually worth a good, solid nuclear war, to get rid of this stupid idea that bent, murderous meglomaniac "cult of personality" jerks who are poisoning our future with fear and toxic virus agents, can control and dictate the social actions of billions of people.    This whole model is just so wildly wrong, it *MUST* be ended, regardless of the cost.   Putin and Xi are threatening the future of the Free World.  This lethal partnership puts all of us at risk, and there is this view, that this serious risk needs to be effectively addressed.

This seems to be the clear ethic I am encountering, in my research.  To paraphrase what I have been reading:   (It goes something like this...)

---- the New, Modern 21st Century Diplomatic-Military Strategy: ---  (using plain-speak English)

"Fucking just nuke them!!  Let's fix this shit!  Let's Just Fucking Nuke Them, and solve the fucking problem!  Why the fuck not?  We need to do it now, while we still can.

Let's maybe GIVE WAR A CHANCE!, since this "peace" shit, with lethal virus crap, and giant fucking armies camped on the fucking border of the Free World - this is JUST FUCKING NOT ACCEPTABLE, and the vicious "leaders" who play these sort of shit-eating KGB Stalinistic nowyoudie games, should also maybe find themselves - in the last few nanoseconds of their abusive lives - looking on the tip of an incoming 20 megaton ballistic missle.

Let's KILL this threat, and let's do it NOW!

Why not?  This current world, run by liars, fraudsters, and Green Peace Nazi "woke" jerks who live only for abusive social-control and Epstein / Weinstein style sex-parties where they fuck underage kids - this kind of Leftist-sanctioned world-of-evil maybe should be blown completely to hell.   It is broken, wrong, and ugly, and it's source is KNOWN, isn't it."

---  End of paraphrased ethical/social commentary which we are discovering ---

This is how a curious number of people seem to feel now.   Except this sort of comment is of course, completely censored and restricted on all the administered social-media sites, so it simmers and bubbles below the surface.  (birds without wings, & greentext things...)  

Note:  We strongly favour the peaceful-trading model of civilization, not the warfare-kill model, and believe this extreme anger which we keep seeing, is not good.  Better we do not go down this path, of course.

Yet, what is *really* interesting - is that in our heart-of-hearts, in the hearts-of-darkness that are in every human soul - we are starting to find some serious agreement with these curious, violence-seeking ideas.  War works.  Victory works.  Freedom is non-negotiable.   Really bad people cannot be stopped or corrected by talking to them.  That is a true waste of time and effort.  Once this is learned, then different action is required.

True "Diplomacy" must be practiced with weapons, otherwise, it is just bad wind and the flapping of lips over pieholes.  It is just information confrontation - worse and less useless than even noise.  Take out your .45, cock the hammer, point it at the bad guy's head, and ask for his full attention.   Then, at least you might be able to effectively communicate.   This is what Vladimir is trying to do now.  Except he does not realize, there are 20 or 30 guns pointing at him, from the shadows and the sidelines, and every pointer has a very itchy trigger finger.   Everyone will lose, when this war starts.

We note that the German Minister of the Navy was just forced to resign, for making unwise and curiously mal-informed  comments about Putin and Russia.  And also that Germany has refused to send any military assistance to Ukraine, and has actively prevented other NATO nations (Estonia) from sending even small-arms (self-defensive weapons only - basically street-by-street fighting hardware ) to Ukraine.    This directly reminds me of Hitler's deal with Stalin - two ugly, rotton peas in the same pod, IMHO.    And like Mark Twain pointed out, history does not actually repeat, but it sort of rhymes (but in an ugly and tragic kind of way, yes?)

Canada is of course, not involved in anything, as we have what appears to be, a corrupt, dysfunctional woke-socialist (some say clearly: "neo-communist") government run by "Liberals".   Our nation is an embarrassment on the world-stage now, so we - sadly, despite having good quality armed-forces - are condemned to sit on the sidelines (again) and watch as the Ukrainian end-game tragedy plays out.

Perhaps Ukraine should create a "War-Freedom Theme Park", where people could pay money, bring their own weapons, and seek to end their days by trying to take down as many evil Russian thug invaders, before they are cut down.  It would - or could - be like selling entrance tickets to Valhalla.   Each guy (or even gal?) could get a chance to die in an honorable battle, on his or her feet, instead of in some nasty hospital virus-ward, wired to a ventalator, and lying on a shit-stained bed in an understaffed ICU.

Just a thought...

And it looks like we might be tee-ing up that 3500 point down day, for the DJIA.   Interesting times, yes?   We favour peace, but the whole western world, despite the sad Germans, and the dysfunctional USA Federal "Government" (such as it is), may find it cannot stop this angry "mobilization process", which seems to be a global phenonmenon.   If we get a significant meltdown in the markets, and a taste of traditional mass-poverty, the whole "Let's Go (to War!), Brandon" thing will gain even greater currency and public support.

Putin should send his "Terror Army" of modern stormtroopers home or at least, back to barracks in Moscow, and Xi should allow a full, open, internationally-sanctioned technical inquiry, into the true origins of the lethal Covid-19 coronavirus pandemic.

We doubt either of these outcomes will occur.   So we probably better start quietly beating some plowshares into weapon's-systems.  We have no choice, it appears.  We also better start taking action to engineer effective changes in our bad Governments, here in North America.

The Romans were correct.   A State ensures it's survival and peaceful commericial stability, by being ready to deal with bandits, thieves and border-raiders.  Russian bandit states - such as the criminal regime in Belarus - are already guilty of massive election fraud, air piracy and kidnapping.  If Ukraine falls back to being a vassel-state of Russia, by virtue of a military defeat, a dangerous new world dis-order will have been created and sanctioned by a weak and disabled USA.   That will then mean a broken and disfunctional NATO.  This puts the security of Europe and North America at risk again.  Only this time, the terrorsts are nation-states, and they have nuclear weapons.  

This tragic sequence of failure, weakness and surrender of our collective values - which Biden and the other Leftists have engineered & delivered - should be stopped now, and reversed.

Changes are needed.  Changes at the top, in both USA and Canada.

[ Jan. 22, 2022 ] - American Lab Leak - With LIVE MONKEYS! - Just when you thought the poor Americans could not get it any worse - here we go, with a truck crash involving LIVE MONKEYS THAT WERE LAB TEST ANIMALS - being shipped by truck, from the lab to a place where they go when the lab is done with the poor things.   We do not know if the monkeys are (or were) infected with Covid-19, or perhaps some other virus or bacterial agents.   We do know that the CDC (the Centre for Disease "Control") has been called in to offer technical assistance.  And people are warned not to approach the ones that escaped.

Personally, we believe that Covid-19 was the direct result of a lab leak in Wuhan, China, that occured by accident - probably mice carried the modified bat-virus from waste products, or from the lab itself, to the live-animal food market, next door.  This is not silly "conspiracy-theory" nonsense - just the simple and most likely explanation for what happened, given that the Wuhan Virology Lab was conducting "gain-of-function" research (ie. genetic tweaking to make the bat virus more virulent - mostly to see simply if it could be done).   This research was funded by American agencies - which is why neither China nor USA want to get to the bottom of where and how Covid-19 originated.   So it goes.

What is interesting, is just how awful and almost tragic-comic is this "Lab Monkeys Released in Crash" story.   It is almost a perfect example of how it is impossible - absolutely impossible - to keep nasty stuff in labs, properly secure.   Lab leaks occur *all the time", and are painfully commonplace events.    No one should be surprised if a lab leak happened in China. 

Here are details - with pictures - of what just happened near Danville, in Pennsylvania. 

https://www.usnews.com/news/news/articles/2022-01-22/dont-approach-lab-monkey-missing-after-crash-people-told

Poor monkeys.  These were test animals, from a lab, probably doing some kind of virus, vaccine or medical-products testing.  The monkeys were test animals.    What is interesting is that no one is saying if the little animals had Covid-19 - and if so, is it some new variant?   

Army of the 12 Monkeys?   (or is it now, the "100 Monkeys"?    Perhaps we should give them keyboards.  They could write Joe Biden another speech.)

[ Jan 21, 2022 ] - Plans for the New Post-Soviet Ukraine:  Put In a Pleasure Palace, Please...

- We are not sure if this is real, but it makes a good story.  Why let the truth stand in the way of a good story?   :D

https://www.businessinsider.co.za/putin-palace-leak-479-photos-navalny-ice-rink-pole-dancing-2022-1

Last nite, I tried to open the front door of my house, and the doorknob broke - literally broke to pieces, metal bits falling on the carpet..   FFS.   My first thought, of course, was: "Desolation Row...?".    So, I used the Linux comsole to google "about the time the doorknob broke", and I found this version, by "My Chemical Romance", circa 2009.   Thirteen year old video, yet it seems really quite au courant...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dhZTNgAs4Fc

Good luck, people.  We gonna need it.  Remember Axel O's famous observation:

"Do you not know, my son, with how very little wisdom the world is governed?"  - Axel Oxenstierna, in a letter to his son Johan, written in 1648.
 

[ Jan. 20, 2022 ] - Handed Your Head - Well, call me Medusa.  The technology works pretty good, but the human needs work.  :)

It's pretty clear that the inflation will be tolerated, because the alternatives are still fraught with with way too much risk.  We went long too soon, and got handed our head.  The Covid numbers are ramping up wildly, and the hospitals are full.  We had to cancel a routine medical thing.  The shelves are curiously empty at a local grocery story we use (but not at Costco - it is running fine, and seems to be fully stocked).   But our long trade exploded in our face, like a hand-gernade with a zero-time fuse.   Pull the pin - and BOOM.  As you look around for your head, you think, with what is left of your brain-stem:  "It's really not supposed to work this way..."   But in the happy little "Fool's World of Speculative Trading", it's pretty common, actually.  

[ Jan. 19, 2022 ] - UK Inflation Numbers (and a Plea for Economic Sanity):Office of National Statistics (ONS) in England, reports December 2021 annual inflation rates for United Kingdom at 5.4% for the CPI (Consumer Price Index), which of course understates the actual inflation rate experienced by consumers and businesses.   The "Core CPI", a bogus measure that tries to exclude things that go up in price (such as alcohol and tobacco products,  food and energy costs) still rose to 4.2 % (from a November 2021 reading of 3.9%).

What is really interesting, are these other numbers, which are not as widely reported, and we think show a more accurate picture of what is really happening:

Retail Price Inflation:    November:  7.1%,  December:  7.5%

Factory Price Inflation:   November:  9.4%,  December:  9.3%

Producers costs Inflation for Material & Energy:   November:  15.2%,  December:  13.5%

This information is from a Reuter's article, at this URL: 

  https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-inflation-rises-highest-since-march-1992-2022-01-19/

The Bank of England should immediately set it's short-term, administered interest-rates to some sane and sensible levels, that reflect what is actually happening in the British economy.   The inflation rate in the UK is back to that 8%+ level that prevailed in the world at the end of the 20th century.  Short-term administered rates in the 2% to 4% range, seem to be indicated.

The problem, of course, is the government debt.   Raising rates anywhere will crash the government bond market, and increase debt-service costs - and this cost increase will flow directly down to taxpayers. 

Now, think for a minute about the economic machine you have here:  The methodology that will be applied to reduce macroeconomic inflation pressure - higher interest rates - will actually flow right down to taxpaying households, as higher tax costs.   Duh!   We will "Whip Inflation Now!" with higher costs to households!   Really.  This is what was done in the 1970's in USA and Canada.   Idiots in charge, of course.

And now, all the numbers ten times are bigger.   Understand?  Some are a hundred times bigger.  If we keep these stupid low interest rates, we will blow up government spending (this is already happening in Canada and USA), and trap ourselves in a silly situation where even modest rate-rises will produce substantial debt-service costs to taxpayers.  Remember, there is not any seperate "Government money".  It all has to be squeezed out of taxpayers.

If inflation is running at 8%, we will need at least 4% to 6% yields on government bonds.  Moving yields from near-nothing, to 4% to 6% range, will kill the value of western-world bond market holdings.  All that "wealth" pumped into the economic machine, by central-bank bond buying, will just disappear, as the bond-markets transition in valuations.   The inflation driven re-pricing may happen quickly.     This - we suspect - is why the Central Banks are not acting, because they know that when they do, they run a real risk of blowing up the entire financial system.

Where is wealth held?  In bank deposits, bonds and stocks - financial instruments.  There exists the risk of a massive - and very fast - re-pricing of these instruments, if the Central Banks act to adequately address the rising inflation pressure.

So, the Central Banks basically are trapped into having to do nothing.  We are all taking the financial equivalent of heroin - it only is a problem when we stop.  

But the inflation will run quickly out of control - feeding forward into all process-costs, and then also into funding costs, even if small interest rate rises occur.  It is already happening, and it is a symptom of economic breakage, which needs to be addressed.

We went to CostCo today, and bought some groceries and food- just one single shopping cart. The cost at the cash-register was over $500 (Cdn).   A few years ago, we were spending $200 to $300 for a cart-full of food.  In the last five years, our basic living costs seem to have doubled.  We are lucky, because we have capital, it is deployed, and we trade.  But we have to endure massive swings in portfolio value, to be in the game successfully.    It's more than a little crazy.

In the time of 1971 to 2001, when inflation was running around 8% annually, my father was able to put money out at 8% to 11%, and stay slightly ahead of the process.   We typically have earned more like 4.5% to 5.5% over the 2001 to 2021 two decades, and that has been enough to stay ahead of inflation - but just barely.   Now that inflation is moving back to it's historical 8%+ level, it is clear, we are at real risk.    We - and others - need to make changes, quickly.

Fortunately, we made real-estate speculations.   And sometimes I trade,  Be aware that the chatter that "financial planners" offer folks, is almost worthless.  In this insane world now, which is between a rock (zero-level rates-of-return on low-risk assets) and a hard-place (rising inflation pressures), the only chance you have is to basically run your own "hedged-fund". 

I need to write a book about this.   The working title is:  "Funded by Randomness".

The markets are not really random.  You need to understand, they are *trying* to kill you!    And they will succeed eventually, with a 100% certainty.    

What the Central Bankers and the lightweight political people need to understand, is that the economic machine is a beautiful machine - but like all complex equipment - it must be managed wisely.   The job of the Central Banker is to protect the money.   They should *not* be focusing on employment or foolish Green-silly  (eg. ESG) type issues.  Just keeping the money "real" is a difficult job.  It should not be blurred with other foolish desires or counter-productive tasks.

Inflation - especially high-inflation - is a sign that money is not working correctly, and this means the Central Bankers need to make adjustments.   Governments need to run balanced (or near-balanced) budgets, and taxes need to be kept low, so the economic machine can function smoothly.   This has been a historically difficult balance to make, and now even more so, given the broken "democratic" process we now seem to have.

We live in a world so dangerously distorted, twisted and dishonest, that I am surprised we do not have rioting in the streets.   The investment process is near-breakdown (zero-returns means zero-investment), and money-printing to pay government bills is *always* going to destroy money-value.  If it is the world's reserve currency that is being money-printed, then that currency will not fall.   Instead, the risk is that a scenario will be created that causes a non-linear transition to a *much* poorer world - a rapid transition event may well occur, in which an enormous amount of financial-paper wealth is simply vapourized.   I fear this may happen eventually, and I am seriously worried about this outcome.   It could mean a rapid transition into a World-War, and a time of poverty and conflict that returns us all to very long-run historical norms. 

But - as Malthus indicated, many years ago - maybe this is necessary, to keep the machine in operational balance...   (I am becoming a more dismal scientist, each day...)     :/  

FD: (Full Disclosure..)  We are long again.  They will raise rates a little bit, but not enough to kill the money-boom.   Of the two evils, moderate inflation is the lesser one, so it will be selected.  Prices will rise.  Stock prices will rise - but so will volatility.   Expect violent "stop hitting" gun-runs, with the stock and bond markets trading like wheat and cotton did, back in the old days.  This seems to be the way the trading algorithms are programmed.     We are sympathetic to counter-trend trading strategies, but in truth both our own little business, and the successful traders we have studied, make their best returns by simply being invested.  One has to ride the dragon, not kill it.

[ Jan. 18, 2022 ] - A 3500-Point Down Day on the DJIA - We are pretty sure that this is lurking out there, and will make it's appearance fairly soon.  This market is crazy stretched, and is floating on central-bank supplied foam.  Once the foam-generator is simply dialed back a bit, a 10 to 15 percent retracement looks to be in the cards.  Note that this is *not* what the AI says.  The AI says we continue up - but my long-wave research suggests we are stretched and being supported by monetary excess - probably the most extreme that has ever been crafted (with a few notable exceptions, such as Germany in the 1920 to 1923 period).  

The economic machine is pretty good at engineering self-correcting scenarios, and we are looking for a mechanism to remove the excess "foam-cash" that is driving the process at the moment.  In 1929, the USA Federal Reserve raised rates from 4 to 6 percent, and everyone was long, with only 10% margin.  A crash was certain.   We are not quite at that point - except the transition from zero interest rates, to 2 or 3 percent rates - this *substantially* alters the effective discount rate in everybody's DCF (discounted cash flow) models, and risks making an enormous number of projects uneconomic.   And yet if we *don't* get the interest-rate increases, we will effectively destroy money-purchasing power, with the already-serious inflation that is happening.

So, we are f*cked either way, guys.   The world has painted itself into a corner, like a bad cartoon, and there will be no "hand of god" to come and pluck us out of this mess.   I keep trying to find a scenario of some kind of soft-landing or sane-re-alignment of the variables - but I just don't see it happening.   The USA and Canada are both run by light-weight neo-socialist nutters, who are focusing on fool's issues and other nonsense to engineer political distraction.  And that is pretty much working.   But for how much longer?    I just cannot shake the feeling that the numbers are all fake - the labour market looks *tight* - but that is because the participation rate is falling like a brick in water. 

I understand why Putin is trying to engineer a war.  It's all he has left, in his little spycraft bag of tricks.  Same reason why Biden is trying to disfigure and destroy American democracy, and the phoney press monkeys are calling it "voters rights legislation".  (It is so *not* about "Voting Rights" that it is hilarious.)    All this fluff-puff and fakery and war-generation - it is all about the operational exhaustion of the various economic processes involved.  

Nothing is working right.  Investment is broken, and the future appears to be a series of bleak nightmares of social-control, rising costs, creeping poverty, declining incomes and grim restrictions on human freedom - combined with a routine and rotating series of plagues, sickness-events and tragic outcomes.   The AI is not capturing this.   Maybe it is correct, and I am seeing demons that exist only in my own imagination.    But human imagination can often provide the hint that lets us avoid disasters - especially if we can grasp the truths that lie buried in the historical record.

https://www.tatsuki.org/papers/SeismicCulturesWS/1.TATSUKI(2018)_Seismic_Culture.pdf

[ Jan. 17, 2022 ] - Inflation Happens. - See the "Story of the Two Pontiacs" above, to see an actual, true numeric estimate of what the honest, typical modern inflation rate actually is.  The official inflation numbers published by government agencies *vastly* understate the true inflation rate, for numerous political reasons. 

Investors - who do not want to speculate - are getting pressed between a rock and a hard place, in the modern world today.   You speculate, or else you may die in poverty, if you are not a pensioned government worker.  And even if you are comfortable now, you can find that your pension takings may well be vapourized by inflation - in the same manner as will happen to the ordinary working folks - if they can even find honest employment!    You either go rogue, or you learn to speculate like a riverboat gambler.   And both of these choices carry substantial risks.   But so does just sitting with savings.  You can actually see the money-value wither away, if you look carefully.   Fun times, eh? 

So, drive fast, drink good wine (or fine Scotch, as the case may be), and enjoy what you have, while you can.  If you don't get killed by Covid-19, you are certain to be impoverished by inflation, or destroyed by a market crash - regardless of any choice you make.

See, this is the basic problem with AI technology.  It actually works quite well.  You can use it to see the future, along with a little basic (and not-so-basic) analytic effort.   The problem is, is that you discover that you are basically dead.   You are in a toxic chess end-game, and checkmate is certain to occur, since you are playing against the Universe.   And the Universe wants to kill you, and see you die, and it will.   Nothing can alter that outcome.   

Even the very best simulator, as the simulation is run, ends always with the death of the operator.  This is a sobering observation, which cannot be denied.   All your efforts and your work - it is in vain, no matter how good it looks at any given moment.    Humans make up all sorts of nonsense and silly fictions (eg. religion, gods, devils, afterlife, and so on), but all that is complete nonsense, and everyone - deep down - knows this assertion to be true.

So, one is left feeling just a bit annoyed.   With our AI devices, we can see the future - but we cannot seem to do anything constructive or effective about it.  And the folks who might be in a position to make course-corrections, seem to all have their heads pushed up into their backsides.  And that is curious, and even more annoying.  

[ Jan. 15, 2022 ] - Money Talks, Even After It has Been Murdered - The old pirates used to say: "Dead men tell no tales", but of course now, with DNA testing, and good forensic technology & analysis, this is no longer the case.   The same is true about money.  Dead money cannot be used to buy product in the grocery store, or the supermarket.  But it has much to tell us about the dishonesty, the trickery and the outright scamming that national governments *routinely* engineer to impoverish and manipulate their people.

The latest socialist idiocy (in a long line of grotesque national socialist and communist lies), is called "modern monetary theory", or MMT for short.   It says, in a nutshell, that money supply does not matter, and large increases in money supply and government spending can be undertaken, without creating inflation.  This is of course, nonsense.  But like the fake "science" of "global warming / climate change", these lies serve a powerful political purpose.

The nation-states can engineer a rolling series of "crisis events", blame the marketplace and the financial institutions for any economic dislocations, and drive down the real wage levels and raise up the real tax rates, so as to enrich the centres of power, at the expense of the people they rule over.   Every political action is always about power and control - make no error about that.

And this engineered deprication of monetary valuations, is directly about re-enabling the central control and management of economic activity.   We are right in the middle of an ugly and very dangerous real-time experiment, which is underway everywhere.

The real yield on virtually all government bonds - almost everywhere in the whole goddamn world - is negative now.   This is insane.  If you are an investor - simply a plain, ordinary person trying to make rational investments using your lifetime savings, in such a way so as to ensure that you will not be completely impoverished over the next 10 or 15 years - there are simply no rational alternatives anywhere.  Your only options, are to speculate, and do so aggressively.

So, life is tough.  Big deal.  This is not new.   But what is new, is the obvious result of this MMT model, in which every single monetary variable has been pushed to the limit - and then beyond - and we now appear to have no margin for error - or even bloody buffer stocks - anywhere.

All the bullshit about "supply chain disruptions" is complete nonsense.

For 2021, the produce price index - a very conservative calculation, designed to mask obvious inflation - still showed a rise of over 9% in the USA.  The CPI was over 7% for the same period.  In a normal world, this would induce the central bank to take some serious action, given that their *target* maximum inflation rate is 2%.  And yet, nothing is being done at all - just more talk.  And this talk comes as both China and Russia are actively enhancing and extending serious military threats towards their neighbours.    This is nothing to do with "pandemic" action, this is because each of the leaders of those two nations are clearly aware that things cannot continue as they are, for much longer.

The entire world looks like it might be functionally bankrupt, and operating on a rolling series of unsustainable "re-funding" exercises.  This is nothing to do with "climate change", and everything to do with completely unsustainable monetary expansion, and widespread "payments for non-work" and debt action "restructurings".    The entire nation of China is running on paper funny-money, almost exactly has France did, during the expansion phase of John Law's first national paper-money scheme for that country, in the early 1700's.   There is effectively no private property in that country, and virtually all property-based hypothecation, is complete bullshit.   There is a limit to how much longer this astonishing exercise in legalistic deception, can continue.  It might go on for 50 more years, until it breaks, or it might break in 50 weeks, or 50 days.   The whole place is living a lie, and is not paying its bills.

And we are not much better here.  Russia succeeds by being at war.  The place has always been at war, and it's history is one of violence and conflict.    A Russian attack - again - on Ukraine, will be ugly, and will no doubt give the appearance of success, but will cause a complete break with all Russian commercial activity, unless or until, Putin is removed, by whatever means possible.   We had thought Russia was modernizing, but this seems not to be the case - so conflict and collapse is programmed in again for that tragic nation.  Their people again risk being yoked by an abusive, dishonest militaristic elite.  This is as certain as it is tragic.

And Europe is unable to focus on any actions except State control, taxation increases, and large state schemes for economic restriction and ultimate failure.   We simply cannot find any examples of anything really working right there, anymore.  And in our large land-mass, small population nation, we seem to be copying their errors - when we are not busy copying the errors being made in America.

So, we are concerned.  History did not end.   In fact, it is giving all appearance of spiraling towards economic dislocation caused by currency manipulation, over-the-top national debt-levels, resulting mass-collapse, and global conflict.    Or maybe everything will be just fine.   But I just cannot believe this, given the high-inflation, low-yields, high-risks associated with any investment action, and ongoing trading/supply-chain breakdowns.   It all just looks broken and very much like a complex system that has reached a limiting-case exhaustion scenario.

And maybe a series of earthquakes will deliver another exogenous shock to our global economic system.  The Covid-19 pandemic is not our only risk factor.   We have been looking at seismic data.  We seem to be about due for another event.  If curious, you can monitor earthquake activity in real-time, in the famously-named "Ring of Fire":

https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=-29.68805,-245.74219&extent=72.60712,-79.80469

 

[ Jan. 14, 2022 ] - Fake Lake - The big "data-lakes" are fake lakes.  The numbers are fake.  The data is managed, bogus and not to be trusted.  Seriously.   When the algorithms are almost perfect, and knowledge is encapsulated in action-process, then the only way advantage can be gained, is by engineering fake data.  The data-lakes are "fake lakes".   It's hilarious - like a bad film noir, full of gangsters with low-talking voices.   The data cannot be trusted, because it is engineered.

Are the prices fake?   Almost.   The equity markets in North American are fake - not quite "rigged", but basically, the data they generate, is now ancient history, and effectively fake.  The professionals know this, and so do the academics.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-09-29/is-stock-market-rigged-insider-trading-by-executives-is-pervasive-critics-say

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/28/forget-fake-news-investors-should-realize-the-markets-are-fake-says-asset-manager.html

https://www.vox.com/the-goods/22832438/nft-gamestop-amc-crypto-bubble

What is really interesting, is that most people - although they know that most market process now is driven by fake data - there is no one who really cares too much about this - and the political people in charge of things - either the economic lightweights in Canada (The Cdn PM has explicitly said: "I don't care about monetary policy"), or the old Leftists folks pretending to run the USA, are not really even aware that a problem exists.   It's a very strange time now.

We used to play a terrible game, as stupid teenagers. The idea was to find a highway without traffic at night, turn off the headlights, and turn on the car interior lights, and then accelerate.  The idea was to see how long you could hold your course, before you felt panic, and switched on the headlights.  It was a "personal chicken" game - completely stupid.  Of course, the trick was to get some tiny clue, where the real highway was, and have knowledge of any curves ahead.

The markets now feel like that stupid game.    Being a stupid teenager seems to actually offer useful, actionable information.   How about that?  :O   (<-- big surprise ascii emoji... )

See, the key point here, is that when playing a really stupid, dangerous game, the idea is that you win by developing the wisdom to stop playing it.  Else you get killed (or horribly injured), and either way, the system engineers (all by itself), an outcome that benefits system stability.  The system self-organizes (rather harshly, sometimes) to solve it's own problems.   :)

Astonishing Lies from the Captain of the Fake-Lake of USA Politics

Just read this note in the URL link below, to see a summary of the outrageous lies and fake-speak that curious Mr. Biden served up recently,  in a speech in Georgia.  Just flip thru, and check out the wild stuff.   It's just over-the-top awful.  We are in a scary time now, it seems.   Harris is unfit and so is Biden.  President Blinken?   (OMG...)

https://spectatorworld.com/topic/joe-biden-voting-rights-rhetoric-teeming-slurs-lies-georgia/

[ Jan. 13, 2022 ] - Ice 10 - Screened "Night Train to Munich", with Rex Harrison, in his younger days, playing a role as a British spy.  Film was made in 1940, right at the beginning of the Second World War, when the Brits were still thinking of it as a "phoney war", but the wise folks knew otherwise.  

I recall reading "Most Secret War" by R. V. Jones, all about the impressive use of deception, combined with scientific / technical methods, used by Britain to gain information advantage.   Deception and engineered mis-direction was a critical component in WW2's  successful outcome, not just code-breaking.   The 20th century was characterized by astonishing exercises in deception and fabricated falsehoods, at every level. mostly by government entities, so as to manage the actions of their citizens, both in war and peace.

Contrary to popular thinking, commerical activity and actions in the markets, needs to be, and usually is, driven forward by truth-seeking and truthful action.   Mostly.  But not always.    It is just plain difficult - even at the best of times - to know what is really true.  But with the new technology, it is getting difficult to keep secrets.  If your plan requires secrecy, you might find that is is likely to fail.   The truth generally leaks our now, despite the actions of the bad and/or unwise people who tend to end up in positions of power and authority.   So it goes, as an American writer used to say,..

Fascinating, Verified Examples of Government Fake-Making:

https://www.spiked-online.com/2022/01/12/why-did-scientists-suppress-the-lab-leak-theory/

https://www.usnews.com/news/us/articles/2022-01-12/official-police-used-fake-dna-reports-during-interrogations

https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0010414020957672

"Night Train to Munich" is highly recommended.  Clever tradecraft by both sides.  We now expect the "Cold War" to give way to a "Fire and Ice War" - hot, fiery conflicts, followed by attempts to encase the truth in ice.  

[ Jan 12, 2022 ] - Hotel Covidfornia - You can check-out anytime you want, but you can never breathe.  <cough, cough, hack, sneeze, snort  ,,, >

Stupid times.  Internet was supposed to be a new wonderful thing to bring us all the knowledge of the world, and expand educational opportunities and facilitate the communication of freedom and justice.   But instead, it seems to have become an ugly sideshow of nasty clickbait, State-level monitoring of all citizens, and a device for letting sharp fraudsters and cryptocurrency promoters, steal and harvest money from stupid people.   Oh my.  Add corrupt Government murder-monkeys and Tinpot Dictators into this toxic mixture, as well as Covid-19 and the Swamp Monsters of Washington, and you get the sh/tstorm that we see around us today.  :)  (<-- ascii emoji of smile-face)

Meanwhile, in Economics-Land...

The USA inflation number has come it at the 7% that we expected was the case.  I realize now that Jerome Powell is a goddamn *lawyer*!!   FFS!  Having al Washington lawyer in charge of the USA Central Bank, is maybe not the best plan, if the poor son of a gun cannot grasp that 3 and 4 percent inflation is too much, 5 and 6 percent inflation is WAY too much, AND SEVEN IS RIGHT OUT!    This is just getting comical silly and looney-tune insane.   The USA "Federal Reserve" (what a silly name for a central bank, eh?)  should raise their short term administered interest rate to 4% right NOW, today, Wednesday January 12, 2022 based on that inflation number print.   Even a goddamn lawyer should know enough basic arithmetic to grasp this.

The inflation is not just from supply chain disruption.   Guys, look at your bloody money supply charts printed by the St. Louis Fed!    If you fly over Chicago, you can hear the entire University of Chicago Economics Department laughing so hard their backsides have fallen off. 

The US Fed guys did the right thing, with the agressive money supply tsunami at the beginning of the pandemic, but now it is time to grasp the idea that the time to address the inflation problem is now - RIGHT NOW - before it becomes any more entrenched - since it already is entrenched now.   Damn, but this is an easy thing to fix.   But if they wait - it will need much more aggressive rate-rises to damp down the inflation demon.

It's just weird and strange - all the knowledge about inflation and it's nightmare damage that was done to the Western world economies - all this knowledge seems to have been lost.

The stock markets are still being goosed hard, and the average household is getting it right in the ear, Iggy Pop-style.    Guys, this is double-plus-ungood, and the 7% CPI print means that you bloody well need to act NOW before this crazy sh/t goes on longer.  And it will, because the real inflation people are seeing, is more like 20% to 30% or more.

But Powell is a lawyer.   And I guess that explains it.  He is good at the political chit-chat-sh/t, but he does not seem to know jack-sh/t about economics.   Hells bells,, guys, just hire some grad student from Chicago or someone who is not a lefty goomba Marxist-fool economist, and make him the advisor, or put him in charge - or just read the ugly history of what happened from 1970 to 1981, when inflation became well and truly entrenched, and got away from the central-bank boys.  You don't need "sand in the gears" and stupid shit like that, you just need to "strike while the iron is hot".  

Inflation is already entrenched.  It is right up everyone's backside now, truth be told.   Why the f*ck can these silly bastards not see this?  A few years ago,  I could buy diesel fuel to put in the furnace tank or my tractor, for 1 dollar per litre.  Now, it is $1.49 per litre.  Do you think this is NOT going to affect food prices?   My hydroelectricity is 17 cents per kilowatt-hour, which is twice what it was a few years back.  My last MONTHLY  electricity bill was $173, when a few years back, I was paying around 200 for TWO months power.  We bought a package of four sirloin steaks from CostCo, and they were just under $50, when before Covid, that package was typically 25 to 35 dollars.   We are seeing inflation numbers in every single thing we purchase for the farm.    The USA is tracking CANADA tick-for-tick on this runaway inflation now.  It is not surprising, because our economies are so tightly linked.

Someone please explain economics to Jerome Powell.  It might help.  Use a Leonteif-table (an input-output table) or something that a lawyer is able to understand conceptually, since lawyers are not very clever with numbers, typically.

Read about Dr. W. Leonteif (who invented input-output analysis):

https://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/bios/Leontief.html

https://reader.elsevier.com/reader/sd/pii/0954349X9500019J?token=B54CF78CCA84AF63A7BE36537299509693659F47AAC3BECAFFE8BCBD5777F5DAD988187934E222FF5A066F4C4B6C5A9D&originRegion=us-east-1&originCreation=20220112151851

Input-Output Table explanation:

http://ceadserv1.nku.edu/longa/classes/mat225/projects/Leontief.pdf

Research Work:

https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2001/06/art3full.pdf

https://www.bea.gov/system/files/papers/WP2000-1.pdf

The use of input-output tables is simple, conceptually.  They are like that song about "Apartment House" life - "One man's ceiling, is another man's floor".   One sector's output, is another sector's input.    If a bunch of basic stuff that everyone uses, gaps up in price by 50%, and that sector's output is the input to every other sector, then BIG INFLATION will result.  ("Duh!", you want to say, eh?).  But that is what we have, with "chip shortages" and 80+ dollar-per-barrel crude oil price.  So, it is time to *GET BUSY* and given the unemployment rate is flatlined below 4%, it is TIME TO RAISE THE SHORT-TERM INTERST RATES, so we don't get runaway inflation.

The problem with inflation, is that a one-time shock, can cycle back, and keep goosing the system.  You need to negatively damp the feedback loop - with higher costs of funds - and damp down activity, so the system does not cycle so much it destroys savings. When that happens, then the investment process breaks down, as all funds are directed into immediate consumption.

The labour market is already at full employment, and the external inputs and imports are just flying.   Ease up now on the gas, before you have to hit the brakes hard, guys.

FFS, even a goddman lawyer should be able to grasp the need for action, here.

Remember, the CPI wildly understates the true, actual inflation rate that households are actually experiencing.

[ Jan. 11, 2022 ] - Using a Ferrari or a Lamborghini to Plow Your Field? - Well, unlike Ferrari, Lamborghini actually did first make tractors.  I look at the algorithmically-driven markets now, laced with tripwires, and I wonder if they really are suitable investment vehicles.  My instincts tell me no - but economics argues that wild (not tame, gambling-house style) volatility is the norm, and must be expected.  We see a 3500 point drop in the DJIA coming.  But maybe it comes as a series of 1/8th-per-day down moves, not a flash-event.   Or maybe we add another 5000 points before this happens. Until the earthquakes begin, of course.  :D  <-- (big grin ascii emoji)   (ps: Lamborghini Tractors are still made, except the company is owned by: "Same Deutz-Fahr", which has it's own complex history.)

I suspect Covid is just the beginning.   We (the world) cannot go on this way.  Nothing works right.  The high-volatility markets seem to be reflecting this curious reality.  We seem to be out of sync with what is happening.   I can't shake the feeling that we are in the tiger's cave, his eyes are watching us, and a ragged, nasty demise awaits us all, in the very near future. 

This might not be neural-net error on my part.  This has nothing to do with Covid, and everything to do with my respect for the Chicago School models of monetary theory.   Imagine a bubbling pot, with a hot burner under it, on a big stove - except the pot lid is sealed to the top of the pot.   Everything is just fine, right up to the very moment when the system makes this very rapid transition to being *not-fine*.   

The operational change-events in the world of reality are just not linear.  They almost *never* are linear.   In the world of markets, the idiocy of "portfolio insurance", back in the 1980's, taught us that.   The dot-com bubble of 1997-2000, the 9/11 terrorist attacks, and the 2008 Housing Bubble/Financial Crisis/Lehman Crash  - these recent history events  taught us all this lesson again.

Yet it seems we must learn it yet again.  Or am I just plain wrong, and the market strength is rational and valid?  I can smell the tiger, and see it's yellow eyes.   The cave (the market) just does not feel like it is a wise place to be now.  The evident inflation, and the response the market must make, is almost a certainty.   We need to be aware - not of a possible "bear market", but of a "hungry tiger market".    It is crouched, and I can just feel it up ahead in the dim mist of the near future.

Voting Rights? Are You Sure That's What it is? - Really? The "Freedom to Vote Act"?  Huh?  Maybe it should be called the "Biden Ballot-Box Stuffing Act"  => "B3SA" for short?   Or maybe the "Freedom to Vote-Democrat Act"? => "FreeVD" Act for short?

Ballot-box stuffing has a very long and colourful history in both USA and Canada.  But I had not expected that a questionable, curious group of legislators, would try to make the process so very easy.   Curious, indeed. 

As the old Time Traveller from the future, told me:  "You think this is bad?   Just wait until you see what the future has in store for you!    Bwah ha ha ha ho ho ho ho...." he chortled, as he hit the engage switch on his DeLorean.

Future-Perfect Tense  ( I Seem to Be Very Wrong, Here... )

But maybe we can act now, to vector events onto a different timeline.   The transition is happening, but we have another runaway day today on the markets.   I am very impressed by this, and I find it very unexpected.   The astonishing run in the Financials has proved me wrong.   We are, today, wrong and *not-long*, and this looks to have been unwise.  I thought I could outsmart my AI model, and it was right, and I was wrong.  I let fear stop my forward progress.  

We kept our bank stocks in our not-traded portfolio, but I unwisely unloaded in December, and the opportunity cost of this unwise action is proving to be very high.  I expected to be able to reposition at a lower price level, and this has proven to be impossible.   A worst-case scenario of a runaway market in the Financials, has become a perfect panic-buying storm.    I am stunned.   I have tried to buy back a couple of times, and missed the market both times.  I have so little direct experience with wild bull markets - almost none, really.    But the numbers are right there on the screen - crazy runaway numbers, like in the history books.  So outside of my own experience, where disaster follows upon disaster and madness, foolishness and collapse are the norm I have navigated thru my whole life (successfully, yes.)    It's like that book by "Adam Smith", about the 1960's markets (before my time).  It's the "Dot-Com" Bubble on steroids.   I suppose that Powell's chat must have gone ok. 

Curiouser and curiouser.   Here is something I have learned:  The idea re. successful investing/speculation seems to be: Do research and decide if you should be in or out of the market.  IF you are supposed to be "in", then just buy in, and let the price action take care of itself.  Don't sweat the bad fills, and the nano-second co-location front-running.

This is very different that what I have historically done.   If the decision is correct, the results will become apparent.   Decide if you are scalping for nickels and dimes, or if you are investing/speculating over an intermediate time-scale.   I sense that investing over intermediate time scales works better, and ultimately will make more money, if monetary conditions are acceptable.   This seems to remain the case, despite all the chit-chat and hawk-talk.  It is what is done that matters, not what is said.   The monetary conditions are still very loose.  They could raise rates 1 or 2 percent, and the conditions would still be crazy-loose by historical standards.

So, I f*cked up pretty badly here.  I didn't lose money, but a failure to make money, in an environment like this one, is actually worse, since this kind of bull-run madness does not happen very often.  I spend too much time playing with this website, and not enough doing my work that matters.   :/ 

[ Jan. 10, 2022 ] - PETE - Profound Economic Transition Event - Ok, lets put a name on it.  PETE - Profound Economic Transition Event.   The Old World has ended, and the New World is beginning - but it will be different.  (One wants to say: "Duh!")

This happens regularly in human history.   It sure happened in spades in Germany and Poland.  It happened in China, right before our eyes.

Now it maybe is about to happen here.   It is showing up in the weird supply problems, and the wild changes in price levels.  Local houses here, now sell for over 1 million Cdn dollarettes.  This looks insane - but economics is what it is.  If prices are set freely, by buyers and sellers, they are right.

We are jumping to a new nodal point?  (Shades of William Gibson!)   Our Starlink was offline from 4:30 am to 6:00 am this morning.  And I both noticed, and it affected us.  How about that?  That is crazy - but we are probably not unique.  We hold on very lightly, and maintain local capability in just about everything.  We have gone from being ridiculed, to being basically mainstream. This is curious - but it is how transition events work.  

We made scones with blueberries in them yesterday - completely from scratch.  But it was store-bought flour.   I am wondering how one would create a working, 21st century millstone, to grind locally grown grain.  And we need wind-generators.  Our neighbour has one (a big surplus one, he imported from California, it looks like).  I worry about the power grid.

The whole scenario reminds me of "Day of the Triffids" - when the hero/protagonist fires up the generator, and the lights come back on at the French school.  "Oh, everything is getting back to normal!" everyone exclaims.   Then the dude comes in and says, "No, I just fired up the generator...."   (Needed that generator, to create the electric fence, to keep the triffids out...!).

Things will not be "getting back to normal".   We are tracking thru a PETE, and it feels pretty weird.  It is now showing up in the real-world economic linkages and operational characteristics, not just the algo-driven markets. It's showing up in prices.  And lack-of-supply.

Remember, a 10% market correction is a common occurance in bull-markets.  Even more likely in bull-shit markets (like this one, which has been goosed by the biggest money-supply creation since Germany in the 1920-23 time period.)   Just try to find economic numbers for market prices then.  It is almost impossible.   Price data in big transition events is hard to find.   The best I have found, is the 1855 to 1868 time period in Japan - the opening of Japan to outside world - the end of Edo times, and the beginning of the Meiji Era, which was really all about a PETE, a massive phase-jump to new technology.  The record of rice-costs (the main Japanese staple food), showed a 7-times increase in price, over that time period.  Absolutely fascinating.   Sword fighting and fake-bushido rules of honor, gave way quickly, to clever samurai being armed with Smith & Wesson handguns.  The old aristocrat-driven feudal society collapsed like a rotten house of cards, in a typhoon of change.   But it was a good and necessary change.

Money has to be made to go away.  And we suspect the market will do it's good job here.  There is too much money floating around, and too little stuff.   Suddenly, an old used 20 year old Viper sports car, costs close to $200,000 Canadian!  It's insane - except there are too many questionable-quality people making a million dollars a year salary, for moving paper around.  This is crazy - we are seeing a profound economic change grind thru our society, like a big millstone on the grain that is the average household.

The key here, is resiliance.  Each of us needs to engineer, operational resiliance, as the old things and old ways fall apart.  What the market might well do, is make this process clear, by removing the unwise economic puff and froth and foam that has been injected (unwisely?) into the world.

Everyone thinks the 1930's was wrong and bad, and not the right thing.   But what if it actually WAS the right thing?   America was basically debt-free, and was able to tee-up for the 2nd World War, fight it with it's allies, win it hands-down, no argument, and then change the world.  And the 1930's was an amazing time of scientific development and discovery.  Maybe we need these kinds of economic cleansing events?

But could this happen now?  Maybe not.  But perhaps.  Our world is choking on debt, and hyper-complex, unworkable supply-chain relationships.  Maybe this artificial complex, supported by extreme levels of debt, is more fragile than we thought.    Maybe the world is Japan, and it is 1853, and the change is about to really get rolling now.   In my whole life, I have never seen all the car dealers have no cars for sale.   The whole system looks like it is just locking-up.

Who exactly buys a $100,000 F-150 pickup truck?   Does that even make any kind of economic sense?   A pickup-truck was supposed to be for farmers and working folks, not just billionaires.  The whole economic structure seems to be twisted seriously out of shape, and supported by deep debt at every level.  Somehow, we suspect this will self-correct, since the governments are not able to do anything meaningful.

And OMG, the whole Kazakhstan destabilization exercise has been impressive.  Curious Joe Biden, has given Kazakhstan back to Putin, after borking Afghanistan and throwing away 20 years of American nation-building efforts.   Biden may go down in history as the most ineffective national leader since that English dipshot who caved in to Hitler.  What was that a$$h%le's name?  Chamber-pot or something?   Ah yes, "Chamberlain" - old fellow looking for "peace in our time".   An old, tragic buffoon, with a broken neural-net, which made him a moron.  Good thing that poor fellow died, and Halifax was stupid (or too clever by half, as the Brits would say..), and Churchill became Prime Minister.   If that had not happened, we really could have had "The Man in the High Tower".  And I'd be writing this in German!

The kids of American kids will be writing their notes in Russian, if Biden and the dysfunctional Democrats are not removed soon.  The Kazakhstan exercise was an almost textbook exercise in old KGB tradecraft on "How To Take Over a State".  We suspect that poor Mr. Kassym Tokayev, the weak leader who invited in the Russian Troops, may soon find himself "falling out of a window", which is the usual trick the KGB (oops, "FSB") murder-men use to remove folks who try to operate with local integrity and honesty.  I truly feel very sorry for Mr. Tokayev.   I hope he buys and keeps a "Tokarev" in his pants pocket, since he will almost certainly need it.   A wise man would no more invite in Russian troops as "peacekeepers", than he would invite cancer mutations into his own cellular DNA.    Mr. Tokayev is now dead, sadly, except he probably does not know it yet.

It is sad to see Russia become another nasty and dangerous risk again.  I had foolishly thought we were done with those days.  What is the French say?  "The more it changes, the more it remains the same."

[ Jan 09, 2022 ] - No Cars at the Car Dealers - Car-less in Canada?- Life is becoming like a twisted Seinfeld episode.  "No Cars for You!", and off you go.  I went to the Toyota, Honda, Kia, Mazda, Ford and Volkswagon car dealers on Sunday (a good time to go, historically an old trick in our local community, since they are all closed, and you can see what is on the lot, without salesmen bothering you).

There are almost no cars at all on the car dealers lots!   It's weird.  January - post Christmas, when everyone is poor, because they pissed away all their funds at Christmas - has always been a good time for semi-shrewd folks to shop for a new car - usually a new, last-years model selling at a deep discount.

Not this year.  The Toyota dealer literally had only 4 or 5 crappy used pieces of rolling nasty on his lot, and  it looked like not a single new Toyota.  Honda was best, with about 8 or 9 high-end wildly overpriced Civics (that look like Tesla's now), and a few used platforms ranging from 30K+ up to 53,000 Cdn dollarettes for a used big Honda thing.  A used Mercedes AMG, circa 2012 (a TEN YEAR OLD car), with an automatic transmission - was priced at $32,000.   It's just nuts.

The Ford dealer had one single black auto Mustang, but it was not in front row - maybe sold. But the Ford guy did have a whole bunch of super-expensive Ford F-150's  ("No Thanks, I already got one..").    It's like a Monty Python episode!   I was waiting for someone to throw the cow at me.

There are no cars.  Mazada had one or two pieces of crap  (used), and a CX-x (something) with a sold sign on it.  The Volkswagon dealer (in a huge new building that must have cost 5 or 10 million to build), had really nice used Mercedes SUV of some kind, with a SOLD sign on it, and a few used Tigjuans and Toe-rags and a couple of weird used pieces.  There looked like 3 or 4 maybe new pieces - also Toe-rags and high-end SUV things.

I have never seen this.  It's weird.   I think all the dealers sold their stock to the USA, and are just keeping their mouths shut about having quietly tossed over their local customers. 

So, no cars for you.   I have some collectors pieces I cannot drive in the Winter, the F-150, and a really old Murano with 200,000 km on it.  Oh, I checked the Nissan dealer also - only a few high-end 2022's, and some used weird junk, also crazy priced.   Fortunately, we picked up a lovely little Honda CRV a year ago, and it is wonderful - despite being high mileage. 

But there are no cars - to speak of - on the dealer's lots.  It's just comical - except how will the banks make money on car loans, if no one can buy a new car?   This is not just a "chip shortage", this is something else - not just Covid.   Need to investigate further...   :)

[ Jan. 9, 2022 ] - The Volatility of War Volatility - The world is increasingly unstable.   The question, of course, is:  Is the path of the instability something that can be understood, sufficiently so that reasonably valid probability estimates can be made for for the occurance of specific events?   Putin of Russia seems determined to start a war with the Western World, despite there being no valid or even sane reason for this to occur - at least that we can see.  But it may be simply that by starting a war (by enhancing the likelyhood of instability in neighbouring nations), he can maintain himself in power and in control of the Russian State.  

The ugly situation in Kazakstan is directly out of the old KGB "Disrupt the State - Sieze the State" playbook.   We suspect (but have no direct knowledge of) a situation, where there is an entire floor of clever spyfolk in some FSB (the Federal Security Bureau - new name for KGB) building, which has been working carefully to engineer the tragic events in Kazakstan.  Once Russian troops enter the place to "maintain order", you can bet it will be very difficult to get them to leave.

The thing to say to Putin is simply:  "If you invade Ukraine, we will completely obliterate your invading army, suspend all diplomatic relations with Russia, and put NATO forces on highest level of alert.  All trade with Russia will be suspended, and all Russian assets will be frozen, for the duration of the hostilities.  Do you *really* want to do such a profoundly stupid thing as this, and initiate an unnecessary war with us?"

Putin is a clever fellow, and after the horrific failure of the Afghan mis-adventure and ugly defeat that the Americans suffered there, as they "CUT AND RAN" from the place, to leave the people of that nation to be overrun by terrorists and religio-fascist gangsters, he doubtless figures that America is a weak, hollow shell of what it used to be, and that it can be bluffed into giving up Ukraine to Russia. 

Stalin was willing to arrange for the murder of over 1 million Ukrainian farmers, so their land could be siezed and turned into Soviet "collective" (ie. stolen property) farms, to feed Russians, and Putin probably figures he can run the same program, and get the same results, given that America appears so badly broken, and Ukraine is weak and has no nuclear weapons.

We would suggest to Putin and his gangboys, that they might simply want to consider just buying that Ukrainian wheat from the folks there.   They don't need to try to steal it, and risk starting the Third World War.   But given that Putin has been trying to murder and imprison anyone who opposes his autocratic rule, perhaps he is drifting in to full meglomaniac Stalinistic sadism, and is no longer operating under rational self-control.    What starts as a high-stakes poker game among associates who respect each other, can collapse quickly in to extreme and ugly violence, if either cheating or madness is brought to the table.

We rather hope this is not how events track forward from here.   We thought Putin was an honorable fellow, trying to do the best for Mother Russia - an impressive nation which has given the world so many firsts in science and mathematics.  The Western World should include and embrace Russia, and the Russian people.  They are us, and we are them.  We should not be enemies.   That is just stupid.    But what is happening in Kazakstan should make us very worried.  It so looks like an old KGB planning exercise -  a weak regime, engineered to ask for *assistance* to put down a crisis, which of course was carefully initiated and launched by operatives acting to enhance instability, create conflict, and pretext what is essentially a Russian power-grab to sieze the State.

It should make us all, very, very worried, and it means we have to double-down, and recognize just what we are dealing with.   When a puppet regime can ask for and then obtain foreign troops to shoot-to-kill protesters, it should be clear to all, exactly what is taking place.

Sometimes, the "instability" is artificial, and has been carefully engineered to obtain a specific outcome.  The old KGB (Putin's former employer), had very specific playbooks on exactly how to do exactly what is taking place right now.

The American government appears like it is curiously dysfunctional.    The risks here are very high.   We rather hope their Agency entities are still operational, and we suspect that this is the case.   The problem, of course, is that the entire process becomes algorithmic, and moves along without anyone in explicit control.   It all begins to look a bit like that Kurosawa film, Yojimbo, or even worse, the beginning of the First World War ("OMG!  They have mobilized their army!  Well, we had better mobilize our's!"  and the flags fly, the drums beat, and smiling, waving young men line up to be led to killing fields.)  

If Putin loves Russia, he should withdraw his army, and put his pistol back in his pants.  People everywhere are so angry now, that the war will be welcomed, and it may well run on virtual automatic pilot, at internet speeds, and lead to significant system-negative outcomes for all of Western culture - both Europe and Russia.

[ Jan. 7, 2022 ] - That Astonishing "Democrat" Deception Machine - The astonishing behaviour of the American Democrats is just over-the-top.   It honestly resembles Germany, in the 1930's.   That curious woman who is in the role of Vice President of the USA has compared the Jan. 6th, 2021 protests at Washington, to the 9/11 terrorist attacks and the Pearl Harbour bombing - which American intelligence agents absolutely knew about, and Roosevelt allowed to happen, so that public opinion would support America's entry into World War Two, and the Neutrality Act could be undone.  That event ended with the nuclear bombing of two Japanese cities - an ugly mass-murder of civilians that is one of the most extreme in recorded human history.  And the 9/11 terrorist attacks on NYC and Washington were world-changingly awful.  The Jan. 6th, 2021 protest in Washington was a commonplace event, the likes of which have taken place in almost every single democratic nation that has ever existed.

Protests against questionable government actions, in which State authorities are attempting to do something that a majority (or large minority) of the people strongly disagree with, are absolutely legitimate and are a not  uncommon occurance in an operational civil-society democracy.   The intense public protests - sometimes quite violent - against American involvment in the Vietnam War, were a major factor in President Nixon's decision to withdraw from the conflict, and hand Vietnam over to a Communist dictatorship.

You may not agree with what a democratic civil government does, but *intense* protest against actions that are viewed (correctly or incorrectly) as unwise or unlawful, is a basic fact of a democratic nation.   It is operational democracy in action.  The January 6th, 2021 protest against what were seen as questionable election results, could have turned into a blood-bath, like Tiananmen Square did in China, or is happening right now, in Kazakstan.  But it did not.

Protests are democracy in action.  And the American occupation of their legislature by the American people - without gunfire or bloodshed - shows a working American democracy in action.  It was a protest that went too far, and violence is always a bad idea.  But it did *not* turn into a bloodbath, with soldiers shooting unarmed, angry civilians.  It was basically the "Occupy Wall Street" movement, directed at the corrupt, privilaged officials in their Washington catbird seats.  No one wants violence - but protests are necessary, and to be expected, when election fraud takes place, and that age-old trick of "stuffing the ballot box" is used to frustrate the will of the ordinary people, and insert a government which does not have the will of the nation's citizens.

The January 6th, 2021 protest was exactly that.  It was a protest action, not an insurrection or a rebellion or any sort of "attack on democracy".  It simply *was* democracy in operation.

The fact that Kamala Harris does not recognize this, or seeks to obscure this fact, is deeply dishonest.  This level of dishonesty from an "elected" official is profoundly disgraceful.

Kamala Harris is not just a fool and a disgrace, she is a special kind of fraudster who assaults basic honesty - let's be very clear here.  She is a heartbeat away from being the Big Boss, and this is an ugly, high-risk, and dangerous situation.  Kamala Harris as US President is a perfect nightmare, and I suspect many Americans will simply not accept or tolerate this outcome.

History teaches us about large, powerful - and common - government lies - and the Biggest Lies are now coming from the Democrats.   This is just fascinating.    The former New York City Police boss was outraged, and explained things clearly.

Bernie Kerik calls Kamala Harris "an incompetent fool" and a "disgrace to her office", and we are with Bernie on this.   The USA federal government appears to be in a curious, dysfunctional free-fall.

https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/harris-kerik-jan-6-pearl-harbor/2022/01/07/id/1051429/

The times, they are changing.  O tempora, O mores!  OMG..  "Oh hell.", (to quote Mandrake, the British liason officer for NATO, in Kubrick's film, "Dr. Strangelove", when General Jack D. Ripper, the airforce base commander, informs Mandrake that a nuclear war with Russia has begun. )

[ Jan. 6, 2022 ] - Thoughts are Free - Yes, they are.

https://seed126.bitchute.com/bxPjR2fDtkfu/kqsPA4O4Dr1P.mp4

We must all hold hard to this truth, as we are tossed about by the great frauds of history.  Those in power write the history, and assert that Truth is Lies and Lies are Truth.  Of course the most recent US Presidential election was subjected to voter fraud, but when such a fraud is carried out successfully, the evidence disappears, and those who benefit from the fraud declare it to be the truth, and all who disagree are accused of telling a lie.   These are curious times, when cheaters prosper, and sit in the comfortable chairs of government power, and issue their diktats.

[ Jan. 5, 2022 ] - California Namazu? - Maybe that is actually it?  Rather like 1906?  There is always some loon predicting disaster - but what if there really is a megastorm ahead?  (Much worse than Covid..)   And maybe it is simply a major series of earthquakes.  There has not been a major earthquake in California for a very long time (all depends on what you define as "major", of course...)  California is a fractured zone of multiple plate-segments, resting on the edge of a significant subduction zone.   Warren Zevon wrote a very good song about it - when he was resting at the Hollywood Hawaian Hotel (which is now a shopping centre, sadly).   I was in Calif. back in 1984, San Fran, and then down the Pacific Coast Highway #1 (a very cool number for a road), to Santa Barbara and then LA and Van Nuys.  Very good time was had.   i truly love Californistan, despite the horrible-awful politics of the place.

If California was a seperate nation, it would be around the 7th or 8th richest nation in the world (depending how you do the State GDP accounting), without the rest of USA.  It is just an awful place to try to do business, and is now an insanely expensive place to live.   But if it drops into the sea, it will be bad for the markets, I suspect.   Google is wise to make their worldwide HQ in our awful downtown.  You freeze your arse off here, half the time, and the politics is as f**ked up as in Calif, (maybe worse, except Ontario is getting a lot better under Mr. Ford.)  

But the thought occurs - what if it is Mother Nature that hammers us next, instead of murderous neofacists and/or corrupt communists?    We always risk fighting the last war (and being handed our heads).    Perhaps the nameless sense of extreme dread that keeps me staring at the ceiling at night, perhaps it is (will be?) a natural phenomenon - a temporal future-echo from a million people driving to work in LA and San Franciso, and saying to themselves: "Huh?  WTF??!..." as the land drops away from underneath of them, and the tsunami waves hit.

The Japanese understand the hellstorm.   It is in their history.  Akira Kurosawa saw Tokyo completely destroyed, not just once - but twice, in his lifetime - from the 1923 Earthquake and fire, and the World War Two firebombings by American warplanes.  When he made Rashomon, he spent most of the film's budget building the ruined, smashed Gate.   Japan's sanitized history of the "Meiji Restoration", is much like the fake-nonsense we were taught in Canada as children, in the 1960's, about the 1837 Rebellion in "Upper Canada".  (It was glossed-over as a non-event.  But in fact, it was an intense, violent uprising against abusive Colonial rule that lasted for months, resulted in many rebels - one of whom was a Judge - being hung in the City Square of Toronto, and caused Canada to be put under British martial law for over 10 years.)

I recently discovered some documented history, of the Japanese period - which corresponds to the same period in Canada - the time from Perry's "Black Ships", to the collapse of the Shogun's government, and the Boshin War.  Modern Japan and modern Canada were born at almost exactly the same time - it is curious.  The formation of the "Dominion of Canada" was a clever response to an ugly, complex mess - much as the Meiji restoration was in Japan.  The period in Japan from the 1850's to 1870 was almost apocalyptic, much as it was in USA (the Civil War).   It was a time of extreme political and social conflict, plagues, and earthquakes.

Here is a historical analysis of a fascinating historical print, which is called: "A Compendium of Events and Record of the Rice Market from 1853 to 1868".   It is absolutely fascinating.  History is always written ex-post-facto - it is written afterwards, and narratives are constructed to make it appear that rational people took action and made things happen.  This is bullshit.   History is mostly random hellstorms that drop on people like bombs from space, without warning or explanation.   The windstorms of ignorance, bigotry, foolishness and luck, and the unwise actions of second & third-rate political opportunists seeking gain, tend to drive events, and every wise person knows this truth, if they look at things carefully.  History in action, is like an attack by pirates.  The best historical documents are diaries and daily journals.

https://pressbooks.bccampus.ca/meijiat150/chapter/apocalypse-now-an-alternate-view-of-the-bakumatsu-years-m-william-steele/

What is really interesting, is at the end of the article - the change in the price of rice, which shows the massive inflation that took place.  This period really was an "End Times" for Edo-period Japan - complete with comets in the sky, tsunami waves, terrible earthquakes, fires, wars, insurrections, and general violence, mayhem, starvation, and poverty for some, and new wealth and new technology for others. 

[ Jan. 4, 2022 ] - Saviour Machine - "President Joe, once had a dream... ".   I love how David Bowie was able to call the future, like some kind of rock-and-roll Nostradamus.   

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=U-AMec7yr7c

Ok, so a Duesenberg is right out.  Maybe if we move to California... rather not likely.   Looking now for a 1972 Pontiac LeMans.   Will post a photo soon.   

I've always been sensitive, and sometimes I get that same thing Larry Livingstone got when he looked at UP (Union Pacific) stock price, while taking time off in Atlantic City in 1906  - he wanted to short the stock so badly, and could not explain why.  He shorted a big position, in UP, just before the San Franciso earthquake, and the trade made him rich.   I don't trust any sort spiritual nonsense, or even spooky action at a distance either.   But I just feel so weirdly negative, and sense a looming hellstorm up ahead.   Maybe it's just some neurochemistry that is out of balance?

[ Jan. 3, 2022 ] - Death by Renaissance - So I found a copy of the 2016 article from Boomberg about Renaissance Technologies, and it was interesting.  The concept of seeking the weak signal, in all the market "noise" is key, and is what we try to do also.   They do it much better than we do.   Very much better.  :)

It is comical - we are only an insignficant nano-particle, yet we see the new efficiency of the markets, and it is scary.  I reach for the keyboard - and I see my exact trading being executed - every time, now.   And this is terrifying, since it means everyone knows everything now.  This is dangerous, since it means when the dislocation comes, it will have to wipe out *everybody*.  It will have to be a flash-crash, that does not recover.

There is not sufficient diversity of opinion now.  Everyone knows everything - so it means that price movements will not be (can not be) in any way smooth, or analogous to a continous functional process - stuff will just phase-jump to totally different orbits, and we will routinely go from a mild, low-volatility, relaxing, sustainable, small-is-beautiful kind of world - to an immediate roaring hell of holocaust and disaster - without there being any intermediate transitional period.

This further makes it nasty and difficult for small-holders and ordinary folks, who are just trying to pay the bills.  They will be wiped out, unless they are *very* careful.  It also means that the guys like the big hedge funds and the censorship-oriented, government-supporting leftist technology companies, will *absolutely* be able to capture it all.   The unholy alliance of the big-tech mavens and market-dominators, and the harvest-everything / watch-everything data-driven neofascist Deep-State, will be functionally able to exert complete social control over all aspects of human existence.  Scary thoughts...

There will be *no* wiggle-room.  And no locus of opportunity where anything of any significance or market-value can be created, by any entity except the Controllers of the State, and the BigTech-BigData trackers and managers.

Who the hell wants to try to compete in this kind of zero-opportunity, total-social-control kind of world?    You cannot win, if all the cards are pre-programmed by the other guys.  It's like playing poker, where all your cards are seen, yet you cannot see anyone elses.  It's nuts.

I seriously am starting to think that the January 6th riotgirls and riotboys who forced their way into the Washington Central Services Sh/thole, might actually have been the good guys, trying to save their world from what we all know is happening.

With total social control of the process, by Big Government and Big Tech, and complete exclusion from the opportunity process, it means the small-holders are dead.   They don't know it yet, but they are.   They have no chance to win anything at all.

And the nature of the way any kind of transitional process plays out now (ie. everyone knows everything, so there can be no smooth transitional events anymore), it means that everything will look fine and lovely and peaceful, until just one day before the War starts, the riots begin, and the world is destroyed by the virus, extreme violence and mass-hate.    There won't be any warning.  No warning at all.

The markets will have to destroy Renaissance Technologies, just like they destroyed LTCM - but if the Renaissance boy and girls are smart, they will be able to avoid the collapse.    But we suspect that it is the very success of the regulators and the opportunity-restricters (the Big-Tech Corps, and the Big-Regulators of the State), that will likely have to be the mechanism that programs-in the breakdown.  The outsized success of Renaissance Tech is a prime example of the problem.   The big-guys with all the data, and the nanosecond trading ability, can win every hand.  It's like playing in a gangster-run, corrupt casino.  Good for them, very bad for everyone else.

The world is not balanced now, and there is no opportunity in the hyper-regulated, State-controlled, freedom-restricted future, for the small guys.   We are all on board "Tomato Andy's" Germanwings aircraft, and no amount of axe-swinging will get the door broken down, before the little happyboy flies us all into the ground.    This is a not-good future scenario, and it seems far too likely. 

The next time the People come to the Washington Regulatory Sh/thole, they better make sure they have a very clear plan, and can implement an executive outcome that does not involve them all being rounded up and put in prison by corrupt Demo-rats who fake up the election process.

Time for some change.  Let's Defund the Demo-rats.   Let's Remove the Regulators.  Let's Go, Brandon!

[Jan. 1, 2022 ] - Momento Mori - Should be the motto of every software developer.  Except the bad software never actually dies, it just gets open-sourced and put up on github, and then spread thru the world like a wicked virus.   Quite hilarious, actually.  :)   I remember I made a clay skull for Grade 11 Art Class - pretty accurate, solid, but then I hollowed out enough to ensure it could be fired in the kiln, with a flat-white glaze.   I displayed it in the basement at home, and my mother put a little sign under it, which read:  "What you are, I once was.   What I am, you will become."    Cheerful thoughts for another year of death and anger.   Happy New Year.

I thought it might be fun to acquire a Duesenberg, from the 1930's.   Ha ha ha ha.  If you have one million US dollars, that is not enough to buy an original one that has been properly restored.  They run upwards of 2 million or more USD's now.  Jay Leno has a few.   The big J models were all built in 1928 and 1929, but it took roughly 8 years to sell them all.  The company was hit hard by the stock market crash of 1929.  By 1937, the company went bankrupt.

The Duesenberg cars were amazingly advanced, and were the most powerful car one could buy in the 1920's, with over 200+ horsepower from a straight-8 cylinder engine, that was technically very advanced.  The car even had hydraulic brakes, which is standard design now, but was a radical (genius) idea, back in the 1920's. 

They are rolling works of engineering art.  One can buy replica models, made in the 1980's and the 1990's, but they are not the real thing.   Here are recent auction results, with little pictures of each car:

https://www.glenmarch.com/cars/results/quick/Duesenberg

[ Dec. 31, 2021 ] - Experimental - The license-plate in New Hampshire says: "Live Free or Die".  We always liked that.  Seems to be the right model.   The nations of the world which are run by gangster criminals, where the enslaved people live, should expect change to come.  Eventually, the enslaved decide that death is better than slavery, and so the leaders of terrorist, gulag states, have two sets of enemies - their own people, and the free, democratic world, which is disgusted and horrified at the cruelty and ugly absusiveness of the slave-states which use murder, terror and prisons to enforce political control of their citizens.

It's funny about Russia.  The Russians actually were the ones who *won* the "Cold War".  The Russian people were the winners, because they got to throw out the murderous communist vermin which had siezed control of their nation, and ran it for the personal benefit of sadistic, abusive "Party Members".     The Americans were just spectators.   The Russians managed to clean up their own house, and free themselves from their 20th-Century "Mongol Yoke".   It was a fine and impressive accomplishment.  They should bulldoze Lenin's Tomb, and build a statue to Boris Yeltsin, a man of courage and vision, in a world of toadys and timeservers.

Democracy and democratic freedoms are under assault again, in so many places, both within the big democratic nations, and on their fringes, in the foreign lands.  Mainland China is turning into North Korea, and running retrograde at a frightening pace.   The Chinese people will need courage and focus, to stop and correct the error-that-will-lead-to-horror that is emerging at the top of their gangster State.   A "One-Party" murder-state cannot survive.  We suspect this Xi character will attempt to sieze a third term in power, and this will be the beginning of the end for China's great experiment.

China's legal, legitimate national government is the government in Taiwan.   Xi knows this, and so he seeks to destroy it.   He will try to, and this will give us the War.   Japan will have to re-arm for self-defense, and Putin will take this chance to re-take Ukraine, and begin again, the mass-killings that characterized the Stalin era of mass-theft and mass-murder.

Putin and Xi must both be removed.  The experiments are reaching conclusions.   We fear the lab may explode, and set fire to the whole world-city.

[ Dec. 29, 2021 ] - Blue North - Time for Winter.   All the Best for 2022.  Snow has come back, and so has Covid.  Curious.  We wonder what will be the next virus.  Maybe "Phi"?  As in: "Fee Phi Foe Fum"? ("It's to the graveyard you must come...! ").  We doubt things will ever get back to "normal".   What folks don't realize, is how profoundly unusual - and rather surprisingly nice - the period from 2009 to 2019 really was.    It really was a lovely, statistical outlier of surprising peace and impressive, rising global prosperity.   Almost all of human history is typically just not like that.   Good luck for 2022.  We will need it.     :)

[ Dec. 26, 2021 ] - Box It Up!- All the snow melted.  We got a Green Christmas, which is fine with us.  I am so impressed by the James Webb Telescope launch.   The actual images of the deployment into space, and the opening of the solar-collector array, was very good to see.   With the James Webb telescope, we should be able to better image directly, exoplanets around nearby stars.  That will be useful.

Our research suggests we are most likely, the only place in the universe were life developed.   We are probably it.  The entire rest of the universe - a very, very big place - might be completely inert.   In fact, given the wild, extreme, insane number of extraordinary, low-probability events that had to happen - in sequence - to engineer life-creation here, it seems unlikely that the 1 / < a very, very big number>  low likelyhood event (all those very small probabilities, multiplied together, produces an *extremely* small number), occurred anywhere else.   

So, *we* are the Founders.   Wise people should get used to this idea, and stop wasting time chattering about nonsense like religion and social-safety and such, and just get busy building starships, even if they will take several thousand years to get anywhere useful.  The contents of the ships should probably be wet muck, lots of different bacteria, and enough plutonium to keep the whole sludge-bucket warm - at least above absolute zero.

This wee, wet planet, is almost certainly, the only place where self-replicating DNA evolved, to give the inert-system universe a *memory* across time-periods, so that randomness can drive improvement.  (The more randomized the DNA sequences are, the more information content the molecule can hold, and the more complex proteins can be generated by the system.  You just need randomness to rattle and shake your way up the tree-of-life.)   With DNA-sequence-encoding, the more you mess it up, the better it works (since it can encode more data), and so period-by-period improvement is possible, based on any sort of system-recognized incentivization.  Just to get living bacteria is amazing and unlikely - and to get self-aware big lifeforms like us humans, is really beyond belief, except we are here, aren't we?  

So, we are it.

Your job is to make babies and spaceships.   Nothing much else really makes any difference, at all, does it?    Also, try to avoid dying.   Every day one is alive, is really quite impressive and fine.  :)

[ Dec. 25, 2021 ] - Merry Christmas to Everyone, Indeed.  - We hope 2022, makes all your wishes, come true.  

If you wish to be evil, and darkly hack, you can trade your White Hat, for the Black.  But be advised, the world is crazy, and is run by dark forces, cruel and lazy. 

If you traffic in evil and seek the bad, you can find it easily and add to what's sad.   The evil you do, will rot your heart, and fester within you, as you play the part. 

It's better to be good, and work for what's best, 

Rather than have the evil, burst from your chest.

[ Dec. 21, 2021 ] - The Good Doctors - This is a link to an article about the general failure to treat Covid-19 effectively, by most in the medical establishment, and the needless deaths that have resulted.   We tried to do our best to get actionable information out as fast as possible - only to have curious, dishonest reactions from the medical and regulatory establishment.   Hydroxochloroquine is a safe and effective drug, as are the various anti-inflamation drugs.  They can work, and other treatments can also work effectively.  Covid-19 can be very successfully treated.  Vaccination is a good idea, but treatment is also effective and available.  Yet dishonesty and the abusive arrogance of the regulatory establishment prevented information and treatment options from being made widely available.

One should read this article in detail.   It is seriously important:

https://www.realclearinvestigations.com/articles/2021/12/21/did_dismissals_of_safe_outpatient_drugs_cause_needless_covid_deaths_dissenting_doctors_say_yes_808045.html

Americans especially,  must remember the failures and abusive deceptions of the various *authorities*, when the next election time rolls around.

It is critical to the safety and security of the United States, that the abusive and dishonest forces that now control Washington, be completely removed.  They must be replaced by good people with curious minds, who are honest.   

It is not good for the World, if USA is run by fraudsters, liars, cheaters and socialists.  The Left, because of it's dangerous errors and extreme dishonesty, should be expunged from the political and regulatory process.    This is an important task, that all right-thinking, honest people must dedicate themselves to making happen.

[ Dec. 15-17, 2021 ] - Running on Empty - Here are some small words of advice.  It you wish to trade to make money (as opposed to most amateurs, who can be shown to simply derive emotional and psychological satisfaction, from having a "hand in the game"), then I would caution that you might want to do something else. 

Trading profitably is just awful.  It is emotionaly draining, and is a deeply annoying and unpleasant occupation.  To make money, one must endure - routinely - events which are much like having a car door closed on your hand - annoyingly painful.  This is just how it is.  We have had a very good year, and yet as it winds down, I am feeling disgusted and exhausted.  Our models and methodologies are working well, but I am not.   Curious.

The problem is, is that I can vividly see or sense some a coming disaster, as I have studied in some detail the nature of the inflation problem.  I expected vastly more forceful responses from the various Central Banks, yet we got basically nothing at all.   I fear we are seeing a classical "groupthink" madness, where neither the government officials, nor the Central Bankers are willing or able to do anything meaningful to stop the economic insanity we are already tracking very rapidly towards.

And our AI model has now turned up, and we have missed a major move.  For me, this is much worse than losing money.    This has happened to me before, but it still makes me mad.  I can handle losses, but missing another run is just lethal in this environment.   It's like missing getting in the Titanic's lifeboat.  The outcome is pretty clearly evident, and it make me annoyed.

We have actually done really quite well this year - except we are using Canadian Dollarettes, and the actions of the clown politicians we have running this nation, have undone much of our efforts. 

We have run hard, and done well, only to have the entire ship-of-state slide under our feet, away from us at a rate that pretty much matches our forward progress.  It is just hilarious, really.   And it looks like it is being programmed to get much worse.

If you are in cash, you are maybe sitting on a rotting pile of decaying assets, that will lose it's value at a rate that will roughly track any gains expected in the future.   The coming inflation will be lethal, we suspect.

Our research suggests we will be lucky just to match the rate-of-increase of the government-generated, Canadian central-bank *ASSISTED*, expected increases in the level of inflation, going forward.     Current Federal fiscal policies suggest a 40 to 50 cent (USD) Canadian dollar is not out of the question.   The Trudeau regime appears determined to seriously destabilize our economy.    This bodes badly for the future.

The debts that USA and Canada have now, and are taking on in the future, will simply not be paid down with real money.  The dollars of both nations will have to be made to become near-worthless, just to make the national book-entries add up and balance correctly.    Maturing bonds will be paid off - but the payoff will be made in deeply depreciated government money.  

The inflation will have to run hard, the money will have to made near-worthless, and the older folks will be killed - with certainty - either by weaponized Chinese virus-agents, or by cancer, or by the creeping poverty caused by the inflation-driven economic decay.

The absurd economic message that gets transmitted by this knowledge is:  "Don't waste time trading - or even *investing*  It is a Fool's Project."  This is problematic.  Speculative investment is often ugly - and is fraught with risk and grief, and leads to sleepless nights, bad digestion of your food, and general all around anger and frustration.   Unless you get hooked up with a Google or a Microsoft in it's early stage of development, you will just be ground down to the mean, and your portfolio gains will be vapourized by inflation, unless you can post a serial run of 25 to 30 percent annual gains for 10 or 12 years running.   And that is typically unlikely.   We have done ok, - but projections going forward from here, suggest this might be much more difficult.

In the end, we all arrive at the same destination, so nothing really matters, of course.

I hope this weblog might be useful for someone, someday, who reads it.  It records a truly strange time in our personal, company and national history.   We have done ok, but just ok.  Not great.  Just ok.   And that was really not good enough. 

I could end this with the final words of W. C. Fields, on his death-bed, as said to his lifelong friend "Carlotta".   He said:  "Goddamn the whole fucking world, and everyone in it.   Except of course, you, Carlotta."     Thoughts to live by?   A bit extreme, of course.  And curious,  since he was a comedian, who make people laugh out loud - really quite a noble and valuable service to the world.  He did well, moved the big needle, and made the world a more charming place.   :)

I rather like the last words of Marie Antoinette.  As she was led up to the guillotine platform, she accidentally stepped on the executioner's foot.   Her last words were:  "Pardonnez-moi, monsieur."   The mass-psychotic horror of the French Revolution, provides a clear example of what the outcome of very bad economic policy can look like.    We should avoid that.

My favourite "last words" is from Nostradamus, who nailed his final prediction, by saying, as he lay in bed:  "Tomorrow, I shall no longer be here", and then dying in his sleep.  Good for him.   It's really very nice to nail a forecast!  :)

[ Dec. 14, 2021 ] - Bad Grammar: Future Perfect Tense - We are more than just a little worried, truth be told.  My model is pointing violently down, yet Mr. Market is bushy-tailed and frisky, in full Santa-Rally mode.  Everything is too perfect, too fully discounted.  The entire trading portfolio is in cash, and I know this is the wrong time of year, for this position.  But it's not the model - it's this awful, weird feeling of dread, that has moved our positions to crappy cash - and the property-market (such as it is) meltdown in China.  The Chinese want their cake, they want eat it - they have eaten it, and now they want to shoot at us, using Russian hypersonic cruise missiles.   This is just not a cool combo. 

I respect Mr. Putin for driving as a "bomber" in St. Petersburg, back in 1991 - good for him.  I actually have serious respect for the man, for having done so.  We all have had to take low-level-jobs at times in our lives - that is how boys grow up to become viable men - learning to take orders, and do the really dirty or low-level jobs.  If Putin was an honest free-lance taxi driver, then good for him.   Probably that makes him a better man and a man that can be trusted.    I have a friend in the medical profession, who also drove a taxi in Vancouver,  when we were both in school.  I worked as a Teaching Assistant  and he drove a taxi.  We both did free-lance programming.    Crazy times - niether of us had any money - yet our lives were like a Chekov story (that excellent one, about the young medical students living in an apartment with no heat, in St. Petersburg.  Just such a great story. )

The US market needs to dial in a roughly 10% correction (that's 3,500 on the DJIA) pretty soon, or we are looking at the "Mother of All Meltdowns" in the next 12 to 18 months.    The world economy is running on debt.   It is like a good guitar-player, who has been up for 3 days, and has been taking benzedrine and amphetamines to stay awake - and he is playing great - except he is starting to hallucinate, and see little yellow men, made out of triangles, running into his peripheral vision.  They are carrying guitars, and waving them around their heads.  He is still playing OK, but you know, that the whole process cannot go on much longer, without the band takes a rest.

This seems to be where we are in the current market cycle.   The whole world is stretched on debt it cannot repay, unless crazy levels of monetary stimulus are applied by the central banks. 

The Central Banks are actively monetizing the national debts of most western nations, and national governments are running what are effectively wartime-level deficits.  In Canada, the Bank of Canada has been told to effectively ignore inflation and focus on "job-creation", which is simply not the job of a national central bank.   Historically, the Bank of Canada has been good at fighting the menace of inflation, but under the Trudeau regime, it has now been told to adjust it's mandate.  

This is very bad policy.   We have a dangerously irresponsible collection of lightweights running the country now, and they are actively acting to damage the national economy.  It's pretty sad, and disturbing.   The national economy is being unwisely goosed by a combination of absurdly low interest rates, outright money-printing, and out-of-control government spending on "pandemic stimulus" and "social programs", designed to generate votes for the current Liberal gang in control of things at the Federal level.  

The effect is like benzedrine on the central nervous system.  Investment process itself is at risk of being systemically damaged - cash investments are going into low-quality silly crap,  like cryptocurrencies (all the risks of fiat money, with none of the legal protections..), and junk bonds, and junkier private-equity investments.  

Everywhere around the world, we see the beginnings of runaway inflation scenarios taking hold.   We've seen this movie before, in the 1970's.   It leads to economic stagnation, low and then negative growth, and declining stock markets.   We suspect the market will catch on a bit quicker to what is being implemented, than happened in the mid 1970's.  Back then, it took years for the real economic rot to set in, as the inflationary price increases hid the outright economic-halt that had happened - first triggered by the Arab "Oil Shock", where gasoline prices were doubled - and then doubled again, with petrol being repriced in "litres" from "gallons", to mask the magnitude of the damage. 

Gasoline in Canada went from 45 cents per *gallon* in 1972, to 50 to 60 cents per *litre* within just a few years, an Imperial gallon being equal to 4.2 litres.    The period of 1974 to 1980 was a period of outright economic collapse.  The intensity of the collapse was masked by the very high level of inflation that was engineered by the extreme levels of very unwise Federal government spending. 

An astonishing level of economic damage was engineered (and magnified) by the first Trudeau regime - that fellow being the father of the current prime minister who now holds power.    Watching events play out now in Canada, is like watching an awful remake of what was already a really bad movie.

One does not know whether to laugh, cry or vomit.   Perhaps all three?  What seems difficult, is to remain *invested* in any sort of financial scheme that implies the future will be an improvement over the past.    This just does not seem to be on, given the events we are seeing play out.

I've just  seen that Coller Capital in the UK  is trying to sell itself.  Good decision.   Unload now, before the Meltdown Reset Event (MRE?)  gets underway.  It will have to happen in all deficit-addicted nations, we suspect.

These very long market run-ups, fueled by massive money-supply expansion and over-the-top Government spending,  have a nasty tendancy to run in reverse (at much faster speeds),  once the sand-pile starts to tumble down.   It's a process seen all through history, again and again, and again.   It seems to be time for it to begin once more, around about now.

[ Dec. 13, 2021 ] - Rising Sun - Readings in Randomness are educational, and much is due to luck, of course.    But the naive folks who would dismiss all (or most) investment success in the markets as being the result of luck, do not accurately consider the possibility that one may simply develop algorithmic methods to assist one's self in becoming more lucky.  

Our research suggests that this is quite possible.   There are processes and procedures that can be developed and then followed, which enhance the role of luck - or which can be shown to improve outcomes in situations where one is dealing with *wild* randomness.  This is the kind of randomness, where it (the generator) is really most certainly *not* random - but it appears to be random, because  we are condemned to always have insufficient information. 

The market is not an opponent or an adversary to be beaten or defeated.  The market is far too much like a drunken female dance-partner, with a bad attitude, and an intense and variable desire.    A rational actor or agent, (or simply, a man) in a world of insanity, and madness, simply must learn to embrace the madness when (and if) he can, and learn to let go, and seek gentle protection, when the screaming and the crying begins, and heavy objects are being thrown.

When women (or men) act crazy, one simply removes oneself from the madness ( I recall the wisdom of my father, when my mother would have a shouting fit - he would adjourn to the Golf Club - until very late at nite, and only return home when her screaming had subsided.)   We observe the markets behaving in a simliar fashion - excited to the point of hysterical foolishness at times of monetary stimulus (the managers have to buy something - and often it is APOS that does the best (APOS => Any Piece of Shit).   And then, as the broken dishes are being swept up, and you are no longer lost in that Mexican border town, and the overall liquidity conditions are very different (suddenly, no one has any spare money), the market sells off hard, and even the good, quality stocks get discounted deep down, as everything is heaved overboard to try to keep the sinking ship floating.

A simple understanding of this wave-like cyclic process, and the dry-powder (liquid reserves of cash) to take advantage of it, can lead to significant investment and speculative success.

And this success, is simply *not* the result of randomness.  It is the result of experience, mostly.   Taleb himself is an interesting example of this - he comes from a family of serial financial losers - upper-class Lebanese pseudo-aristos,  who routinely blew themselves up by making stupid investments in junky, third-world sh/t-hole economies  (and remember - most of the world is a sh/t hole, because most *leaders* are corrupt, goal-seeking, street-smart, back-shooting criminals, under their surface polish).   Taleb's run of financial success is absolutely *not* due to luck.  The man made a serious effort to *not* repeat the errors of his foolish and arrogant relatives, and he succeeded smartly.

We believe that *track records* can contain information that is useful.   We are extremely sensitive to the role of luck and good-fortune, and we have explict procedures to avoid analysis paralysis (the Buridan's Donkey problem is a good analogy).

Years and years ago, we discovered what we call: "Fenstein's Lemma" - named after a fictional character who was created at our University Pub.   Fenstein's Lemma says simply:  " If you are going to get lucky, then you will get lucky - no power can stop it.  And if you are *not* going to get lucky tonight, then no skill or strategy can be executed that can make it happen.  Your success or failure at the girl-getting game, will be determined by forces and fates completely beyond your control."

I saw the truth of Fenstein's Lemma so many times in my life, that I have to accept that there is much truth there.   And yet, fortune does favour the brave.   Or, in Woody Allen's words: "Success can be had, just by showing up."  That is also true.

Sometimes the market will give you rewards no matter what you do.  And other times,  you can do everything right, and get your head handed to you, and suffer an ugly and painful loss.

Taleb won, and became a lucky fellow, just by getting his arse to America - New York in particular.  It would not matter if he chose Dentistry, or Finance.   The key was that he took action, to expose himself to quality luck.   If you want to win the lottery of life, you have to buy a ticket, and get yourself to the place, where luck becomes possible.  And then you have to have the balls and the brains - and the courage - to place your bet, and let the rolling dice do their roll.

This is an algorithm.  You also have to be careful, not to blow yourself up, so you can make many bets, and not be wiped out of the game - whether that game is dentistry, or money management.  The two life choices are remarkable similar professions, actually.   To be successful in either one, a number of significant pre-conditions have to be met - hard work, study, education, business promotion, a professional commitment to honesty and a pursuit of quality results, and so on.

We have been lucky - and we know it quite well.   But luck can be fabricated, much like any device.  This is not recognized by many folks.  But it can be.  Some guys are more lucky than others.   And I have observed - in a lifetime of real, honest observation - that most people seem to get what they go after.  Not right away - but eventually.   Luck plays a huge role - but things are not actually quite as random as they seem.    Things are actually *vastly* less random than they appear.  

And even just a little statistical research, and it's correct application in the whirling maelstrom of madness that characterizes human behaviour - can yield absurdly attractive results, if one follows the basic algorithms for luck-maximization.    This seems so silly and counter-intuitive - and yet one can execute and implement field-trials, and obtain these surprising runs of luck, that are actually quite disturbing to a believer in the research of the fictional  Dr. Fenstein.  (He really was a fictional construct - no such connection to any actual live person is meant or should be inferred here.)   

If you are up all night - to get lucky (as the song suggests) - and you go out and go after what you seek - be it investment success or pretty women - you most likely will succeed, eventually.   But realize - it will be one or the other, probably.  It is very rare, to get both.   The old adage seems to hold - lucky in cards, or lucky in love.    Make sure to decide which it is, you really want.    :)

Perhaps there is also a third choice.  To be lucky in battle - to win a great war - perhaps that might be the best choice of all, as your greatest win may come from being prepared - and yet not having to even have the war.    This might be the luckiest outcome of all, for us crazy humans.  

[ Dec. 10, 2021 ] - Floating - Cream rises - but remember - excrement also floats.   What you see, may be an illusion.  In fact, it is almost certain to be.  We all have Grand Illusions, don't we?  

The entire Chinese economy is built on bogus money, and unsustainable 1-party communist rhetoric.   There is *no* political competition in that economy - only a hierarchy of political cronyism.   We suspect that this tragic web of fraud and deception cannot be sustained forever.  The people of China have tasted economic freedom, and at some point, they will insist on having political freedom.   They are a proud and noble people who have 3000 years of history to draw upon, but they also have the experience of the Free World to see.     They will - at some point in the future - most likely choose to be masters in their own houses - rather than slaves.

And let's all be very clear:  Communism is slavery for the people, with a small group of rich, powerful elite masters sitting at the top.    The elite can rape and abuse the pretty girls, and get away with it. This is the honest truth of things, that the communist elite is afraid of.   They are evil and corrupt.  This is a perfectly proven fact.   Mao was the equal of Stalin and Hitler.  And they put his hideous face on their money.  Amazing!   How much longer can this grotesque lie be maintained?

This is a deeply ugly situation, and the Chinese are no different than the rest of us.   It's almost certainly better to die fighting for freedom, than to live as a slave.    I don't think this is just a Western World idea.    I think it is deep inside of the very thing that makes us human.

We see the entire communist matrix of fraud and deception failing, unless signifcant changes are made.  Yet the forces of corruption and cruelty are powerfully entrenched, and it will take great effort to correct the current Global Error that is in current operation.   The coming correction, will not be a gentle process.  There are too many really bad people in positions of very great power.   We had thought the evolutionary process might actually work.   But given the idiotic awfulness of war-research, laboratory-fabricated Covid, and the hideous cruelty of existing communist evil, it is now clear, that the evolutionary approach is running retrograde, and that now, a revolutionary approach will be needed.

Some selective bombing of key Communist military targets, might just help things along, as would efforts to engineer the wholesale destruction of all Chinese communist aggressive assault technology, which is being actively deployed.  

The leaders of the Western Democratic nations are naive and foolish, if they think a kinetic conflict with China's Communist Party can be avoided.   We are now of the opinion, that it will be needed to free the Chinese people from their yoke of slavery and servitude, much as was needed in the case of the Japanese people.    This is just painfully obvious now.   We cannot deny this reality.

We are of the opinion that regime-change must come to mainland China.   It would be best if it can come from the inside - from the Chinese people themselves.   But this is sadly, unlikely.    

Our small, difficult world, cannot afford to have large sections of our populations, dominated by governments composed of brutal sadistic killers, rapists and criminals.   One way or another, we will have to clean up our planetary homeland, even if it means turning a lot of fat rotting eggs into scrambled material on the floor, to be fed to the dogs.

[ Dec. 9, 2021 ] - End Times - The future's uncertain, and the past is always near.   We see a blistering implosion, based on the ever-growing constellation of major players who will not be paying their bills.  Cause for concern, it its.   As Yoda might say...

Inflation - in USA, for October 2021, is expected to come in Friday, at a 6.8% annual rate - which is a very big number.  You have to go back to the early 1980's, when Ron Reagan was President, to see inflation rates that big.  But in the 1970's, the numbers were even bigger - officially around 10 to 12%, but in reality, close to 20% in Canada.  Trudeau Version 1.0 even created a "Wage and Prices Control Program"  - called the "Anti-Inflation Board".  It was the worst example of bad-economics Liberal thinking, that I have ever seen.  But it was also wonderful, because I got a summer job, working for the place, and learned how to be a really effective consulting economist.  

It was just a fantastic, most excellent learning experience - I saw it all from the inside, and it was wildly educational - in both theory and practice.   The Nurses Union in Quebec, had just gone on strike - summer of 1976 - and jacked up the Quebec Government for a 20% annual wage increase - which of course, would be paid by the taxpayers of that difficult province.  It was like a course in economic science-fiction.  Business and professional people were sent Government forms - AIB Compliance Reports - and the idea was that price-increases were not to happen, unless different work was being done, or different products were being made.   They had these French leftist guys design this nonsense, and it was of course, completely unworkable.   It was Volker's 20% interest-rates - the move up in rates from 1979 to 1981 - which ended the inflation.  The AIB was a bogus political exercise, and I recall how one French lefty economist quit in disgust, when he found out accountants raising their fees, were not going to be fined or jailed for lifting their prices.  It was a real political theatre-of-the-absurd exercise.    But it was fascinating.  The guy I worked for - he had so much Gov't experience, he had decided he was an Anarchist, he told me.  Most of the smart kids were Chicago-School monitarists, and knew the AIB was absolute nonsense.  But I did all this research - and discovered so many interesting things - and I got *paid* to do research I might otherwise have had to do on my own.

Jerome Powell said the USA inflation would be "transitory".  Why would he say that?   And why does our tiny little research shop, know more than all the PhD economists in Washington, at the Federal Reserve?  We said it would not be "transitory".   The whole problem with inflation - is that it falls into a class of dangerously self-re-enforcing phenomenon.    Once that big inflationary snowball starts rolling down the mountain-side, it gets bigger - quickly -  and is more difficult to stop before it rolls over the little village in the valley.   And with the labour shortages and product transport and distribution problems we are seeing, this will only feed the process, and magnify it further.   It may take *years* (and high-interest rates) to stop it - just like it did last time.

Why would they simply hand-wave all this away, and suggest inflation will be "transitory"?   It is such a weirdly curious approach - as if they have all become political people, and have started to believe they can just make stuff up, and say it, and the sheep-people will just baaa baaa baaa and follow along with the nonsense that is being asserted from important mouths.  It's comical, really.

We have to start teaching honest skeptical-thinking in the schools again, and also demand that free-speech be aggressively protected by law.   So much on offer, is just wrong.    Most of just about everything that the "woke" Leftist elite kids are mouthing about, is just wrong - but so are the "wise experts" also.  They are not just a little-bit wrong - they are just crazy wrong - so wrong, you can trade against them with a shoestring, and pay your bills with the regular cash-flow that can be generated.   

This is just not a good sign.     The clowns who run things now, are gonna steam the big ship-of-state right up onto the rocks, and I fear they may drown us all, in the so obviously coming tsunami of conflict.   

You don't jawbone about "Democracy" and "Freedom".   You build really good, effective weapons, and you require that every able-bodied man (and maybe even woman), *must* learn how to use them - and that includes the science and math skills, as well as guns and armed aircraft.   Every single adult should have military training - and should be available on a moments notice, to take action to crush the Forces of Evil.    Example:  The United Nations should send - right now, today - a large, expiditionary force, into Myanmar, to free the democratically elected leader of that country, and absolutely *crush* the brutal junta that has illegally siezed power there.    The whole project would take about two weeks, if done quickly and correctly.   Even if it was necessary to leave the entire country a smoking ruin, that would be acceptable.    But after what Biden did in Afghanistan, we know the Americans are unable or unwilling to take this action - and this failure is actively damaging democracy everywhere. 

Ideally, it should be a Russia-USA joint operation, with assistance by NATO.  We should accept that Russia is a nominal Democracy, and admit them to the Club of Democratic Nations.  They have a nice, big, land-army, and they know how to use it.  Give Myanmar to them, if necessary.  What is not acceptable, is the idiotic status quo, where a democratically elected leader is put in prison, and a gangster junta of murdering psychopaths is free to terrorize the place, and routinely murder anyone who opposes the horror it has created..

In a few years, *inflation* will be the least of our troubles, if we do not make immediate course-corrections very soon.

[ Dec. 8, 2021 ] - Para Bellum - Not really any other option, if the nation-States of the Free World want to maintain peace and security.  We wonder if they will.  See, there is all this debt in the world - way, way past anything that might be considered reasonable.  With zero-bounded rates of return on financial assets, the financial system is bent badly, but still not broken.  When rates are normalized - as they must be at some point - we are either going to have runaway inflation, or a debt-bubble-burst scenario - and either one, will impact the bond markets directly, and the stock market indirectly.  And once we blow up everyone's financial wealth, all the historical models suggest we will be looking at a period of sustained and significant conflict - across and among all sorts of domain-spaces.  Some of our research sees these event-maps already beginning to become evident.

Christmas holidays - when everyone is relaxed, drunk,  and feeling fat from too much turkey - would be a very good time to launch an attack, especially if you plan to have your war be over quickly.    So many indicators quietly have switched from green to red.   Maybe plaid, next?  :)

Also:  We are researching the methodologies of "information confrontation".  It is genius.  It was used extensively by the British, during WW2, against Germany.  An example of its success was in delaying the movement of the Panzers, during the Normandy invasion, which might have been able to check the American-led rapid movement inland. 

In modern terms, we just saw yesterday, how Amazon's marketing efforts and delivery system were stopped, because of an AWS network-failure issue.  Now, stopping or degrading the network information flows, stops or degrades basic economic activity.  The opportunity for effective "information confrontation" assaults is substantially magnified by our significant dependence on AWS (Amazon Web Services) style "cloud computing" platforms.   Many companies rely on this technology to deliver their service offerings now.  If you can degrade the network, you can degrade the basic production and consumption engine of a modern, free-market economy.   This is a non-trivial risk factor, which for the most part, lies hidden to most war planners & military folks.

What is the point of "information confrontation"?  The idea is to simply introduce confusion and mis-direction into the minds of your adversary.  That is enough - that you make him unsure, and unclear, as to what action should be taken.  It's like throwing sand into the eyes of someone who is trying to kill you.  You only need to stop him long enough to let you draw your weapon, and fire with some sort of accuracy.   This is the essence of "information confrontation", and it is a very smart and clever strategic - or tactical - approach to conflict.

It is also the current picture of the modern world.   Mis-direction and fabricated confusion is exactly what our adversarial entities want to see happen.   Know this.  Expect it.  And have a plan that does not rely on regular, real-time updates to your datasets, as the more important your plan, the more likely it will be subjected to carefully crafted mis-direction efforts.

[ Dec. 7, 2021 ] - Puff the Magic Dragon's Breath - Model said to bail, so we did.  I did not want to, given the strong technical position that seems to have developed, but the model has been weirdly accurate lately, so we bailed.  Longs are gone.

The wild whipsaw action has filled the trading account with dollarettes, which are drifting up in value as I key this.  Very, very strange times.   I seem  to have pretty much recovered from whatever flu-thing I had caught - maybe it was Omicron?  Unclear.  We are all double-vaccinated here, and feeling fine.  It's minus 5 celsius outside, there is two inches of snow on the ground, and fluffly flakes are falling...  We have a fat fire in the wood-stove, and it looks like we might just survive the Winter.  :)   

The investment & trading business has gone well this year, and the technology side of things is ticking along well also.  Such strange times - I know lawyers who are working 15 hour days - crazy busy, and feeling a tad tired.   Folks in the City are drifting back to their offices, if they can, just to get free of the "working from home" ball-and-chain.   Working from home is not great.  It seems humans really benefit from the spatial/psychological distance between work-life and home-life.   In our case, the farm-home IS the business, and we know how it can be difficult.

But there are many much more worse options.  On balance, the systems and process and procedures are working well.    I *greatly* enjoy not having to ever appear at a client "office".   I found it curious, that most office environments were curiously awful - same kinds of people in every client office - you could label them by their personalities, and it is so very nice, that we are in a position to avoid that world completely. 

I think the Covid-19 lockdowns and restrictions have permenantly altered social models - both personal and business-related.   So very much of human activity now, is pointless, un-needed busywork - mandated by silly, or poorly-designed, badly-thought-out procedures and requirements.    There are simply huge chunks of silly activity that is just not needed at all.

And empty cities, with streets devoid of traffic, are really, really attractive.

Perhaps we must learn to love the virus - and of course, weaponize it - since that is almost certainly where and how it originated.    If that is the case, then we can easily predict that there will be *many* more similar pathogens in our near future.   And we also must admit, that perhaps this phenomenon is semi-natural in origin - and that it is nature's way of keeping the planetary ecology in an operational state.

Do we get Covid-22?  And then Covid-23? ... coming every year, each autumn, like the Beaujolais Nouveau?  Perhaps...   (I recall wandering down Queen Street West with a lady friend, and stopping into the Raclette, many years ago - and sampling several fine Nouveau's one cold Fall evening.  It was a lovely time... There was a time, when the City was very nice.)

[ Dec. 6, 2021 ] - RANDomness in Santa Monica - I'm reading in some detail, a report from RAND Corporation, on how full-on war with Russia might play out.  The Russians have put roughly 200,000 heavily armed, motorized-equipped troops on the Ukraine border, and it is pretty clear what Putin has in mind.  After watching the complete failure of American military opertions in Afghanistan, it looks like Ukraine could be over-run in a weekend, while that clown in the White House mumbles and ponders, and mutters about costs and sanctions.   Sad, hilarious, and pretty easy to predict the outcome here.

What is interesting, is the detail the RAND report goes into.  It is from several years back, and focuses more on the Baltic States than Ukraine.   But it is well researched and written, and shows some serious thought.   Russia is very well equiped with land-forces and is set up to execute land-grabs.   They have a lot of cheap hardware that can saturation-bomb targets 20 to 30 km forward of their existing positions.   Without a whole bunch of cheap "Stuka-style" a/c to remove this stuff locally and in quantity, you simply will not be able to stop them.   Ukraine has some, but not enough, of this sort of capability, so they risk being overrun, the way the Americans overran Iraq. 

Literally, we are talking round 60 hours, according to the RAND report - which time-estimated a run into  the Baltic States - but Ukraine would be roughly the same timeframe.   These guys could just roar down highways, and splatter everything in their way - while NATO and the boneheads in the USA dance back and forth from foot to foot, and jabber and monkey-dance shouting "Sanctions!   Sanctions! "    It's comical and tragic.   The RAND report specifically speaks to the "atrophied" nature of NATO administrative arrangements - and its communication capability.   It would take NATO - their estimate - roughly 30 days to actually do anything.   This is hilarious and awful.  Ukraine will look like Rwanda, after the Hutu's got thru with it.   Or like the Road to Berlin, in 1945.   

And here is an interesting acronym:  NSNW.   Russia is estimated to have roughly **2000** of these things. They are:  "Non-Strategic Nuclear Weapons" - in otherwords, tactical nuclear weapons, meant for deployment on the battlefield.  These are nuclear weapons *explicitly designed* for theatre operations - booming big bangs on the "battlefield", not city-killing.

Russia has a *lot* of these - more than any other nation on the planet, and vastly more than NATO has.   If they chose to use a few of these - on what they would assert is their own territory (one can make up a lie that Ukraine has *invited* the Russians in to save Ukraine from - whatever - space aliens maybe?)   Any fabricated lie will do, so that Russian can then claim it is simply using its NSNW's to "clean-up" its own territory.)

If Putin can get away with overrunning Ukraine, then Xi will move on Taiwan - maybe the next day -  since he will know that the USA - the only entity that has the brains, balls and bombers needed to do anything significant to stop the attack - is weak, degraded, and has a corrupt, *woke* group of geriatric clowns running the place, and it will take *weeks* before it can react at all. By then, it will all be over.

The USA military is still effective and operational - but it is legally under the command of that very old man in the White House - possibly the least effective President I have seen in my lifetime.  

It is *very* clear, that we are now at serious risk of an awful cascade of military adventure events, driven by that astonishing, horrific defeat that America suffered in Afghanistan.    The Taliban is now going door-to-door, searching for anyone who was in the Afghan military or security services, and they are simply killing them - summary execution style.  But few care about this now, and that is a grave mistake.    The American debacle in Afghanistan will have long, ugly and far-reaching consequences.   These will extend far into the future.   Our research suggests we are just beginning to see the first results of this tragedy, and it is interesting, that other research entities have come to similar conclusions.

There is a *very* high degree of risk of military aggression from both Russia and China now.   The comments, verbage and information-flows that are being generated by both States, need to be seen as "information confrontation"  - a phrase taken directly out of an internal Russian military document on its electronic warfare strategy.  It is more than just lies - it is carefully crafted dis-information, explicitly and carefully designed to manipulate and mis-direct a targeted adversary.   

To win here, all that Putin and Xi need to do, is to slow down, and muffle the response by the Forces of Democracy and Freedom.  This is why their very first aggressive movement, needs to be met with an overwhelming re-active - and a directly *kinetic*  (another interesting term from the RAND report) response.    This is exactly what the murder-thug gangsters who have siezed Myanmar have been doing - ramming military vehicles into crowds of protesters, and killing them.   This is cruel - but it is also effective.

We - who seek to defend our Freedom from the Forces of Evil and Darkness -  need to:  1) communicate clearly, and 2) ensure that our actions not only match, but *exceed* our words.

Doubtless, the bad guys will try various tricks and feints.   We must assume this will occur, and be very careful and observant, and hold fire.  But when the main assault begins, we need to have the capability to respond with extreme, devastating and unlimited kinetic action - using *all* available technology.   It is our own forces, who will have to "escalate to de-escalate".  We must not only destroy their army, but also destroy their ability to even field or equip an army.

This is not how our doctrine is crafted now.  But this must change, or we risk seeing another, and even more ugly, defeat of the USA and it's allied Free-World forces.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-marks-army-day-with-us-hardware-vow-fight-off-russia-2021-12-06/

[ Dec. 5, 2021 ] - How to Deal with the Fascist Next Door -Less talk, more action.  Time to crank up the Wind-Generators of Change.   America makes a controlled gift of 100 tactical nuclear cannons (short range, very local) to both Ukraine and Taiwan.  Sends a note to each threatening Thug-Leader, saying:  "Just so we are clear.  You want to attack?  You get all of these up your nose, and that will happen in the first 24 hours.  The second 24 hours, bigger versions of these start falling on your cities.  Think I am bluffing?  Then pull the trigger, and find out."   Problem is solved, either way.   Seriously.  

When you are dealing with gangster criminal types, you have to communicate using the clear language that the evil people can understand, using their cruel, power-focused little brains.  Any other message, is worthless noise.  Biden talking about "costs" is just stupid.  Gangster leaders are keyed on power, and do not think in terms of "costs".   They put their own successful businessmen in jail.  You have to make it clear to the gangster-type of leader, that his criminal State enterprise - and his personal security - is very much at risk.  An effective approach, is to destroy one of his palaces or country villas.    Remind these people how we dealt with the "Leaders" of Libya and Iraq.

We need to make it crystal clear to the Jumping-Monkey types that run Russia and China, that the Russian people, and the Chinese people are *not* our enemies.   As citizens of the Free World, our actions need to be direct, focused, and very extreme.   "Sanctions" are absolute nonsense.    And our enemies are also *not* Iranians.   The whole Free World should suggest gently to the crazy Israeli nutjobs that they might want to consider the idea of living in peace with their neighbours, and returning the land the stole from the Palestinians.    Once the Iranians get nuclear weapons, it might encourage the rabid racists that run the Jewish State to behave themselves, and stop attacking everyone around them.

Peace comes from strength, not from weakness.   Iran now has no choice but to develop the ability to create a working nuclear defense - especially given what they saw happen in Iraq.  If they are sane human beings, they must act to protect themselves from race-based Israeli extremists.

What all participants in these games need to recognize, is the ongoing value and benefit of peaceful co-existence.   Putin putting 200,000 heavily-armed motor-equipped soldiers at the border of Ukraine, and Xi flying 27 armed fighter aircraft directly thru Taiwan's air-defense zone, is needless, absurd and dangerous, provocation. 

It is stupid, destabilizing behaviour, just like Trump's idiotic and foolish murder of the Iranian General Soleimani was.   Trump showed himself to be an unwise puppet of misguided Israeli interests in that that case, but his insistance on American strength and "greatness" was a wise and rational action - and it might well get him re-elected again, given the spectatcular failure of the 20-year American effort in Afghanistan that Joe Biden delivered to the world.

The World is now too small, and too much at risk from a large variety of serious threats, that nation-State actors should risk war-fighting over real-estate.

But it is in the nature of criminals, to take advantage of crisis, and exploit it as opportunity.  It is because of this, that the response to any unwise aggression, must be met with an overwhelming and extreme reactive-response, by the forces of the Free World.   This is the only effective algortihm.  All else is foolish noise.

[ Dec. 4, 2021 ] - Missiles Like Sausages - That's what we need.  (Didn't some old guy talk about this, once-upon-a-time, long, long ago?)   I have been doing some research on how best AI (artificial intelligence) technology, can be used in war fighting.   And along with missiles like sausages, it would seem to me that we might want to build little bomber aircraft, with rather the same idea.

And we probably want fast, effective fighter aircraft, that cost $10 to 20 million each, not $100 million each.   ($100 million dollar aircraft are just too damn expensive.)  But mostly, you probably want a new class of aircraft - a "Thunder-Thumper" platform, basically a very low-cost, not-very fast, heavily armed, loaded-with-missiles,  airborn delivery platform, cheap to build.   It's slow, but lethal - maybe 20 or 30 missiles on each one - and you basically just fly it near the action, and then cry "Havoc" and let all the missiles loose to find their targets, with the target-cluster pre-selected by the on-board AI.   But it might be too easy to fake the AI-cluster controlling the missiles.   And missiles are damned expensive.  The key is to make them cheap, lethal,  easily fabricated and reliable.

My AI-design efforts keep circling back to that old A10 "Warthog" concept - a hardend platform, twin tail (in case one is shot off), able to withstand flack and small-arms fire, and able to fire a big, lethal, explosive loads from an over-sized nose-cannon, where each round is a focused, exploding charge (a giant Raufoss-type round), which can pierce, destroy and stop, heavy armored vehicles and ships.   You aim it like you aimed a Stuka:  Point a/c at target, pull trigger, watch target explode, pull up, look for next target.   When out of rounds, fly home. 

(Raufoss is very fine technology:  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Raufoss_Mk_211  )

(The Germans considered the Stuka obsolete, even as WW2 began.  But it proved too useful and effective to replace.  It was also cheap, and lethal, and reliable.   https://www.airforcetimes.com/news/your-air-force/2018/06/20/screaming-bird-of-prey-how-the-ju-87-stuka-exceeded-its-life-span-and-carried-the-luftwaffe-through-wwii/  )

We (Canada) bought 25 used (but really good condition) Hornet fighter aircraft from Australia, and so we have a good bunch of decent, airworthy-and-modern F-18's, but if the North American homelands are attacked by the Forces of Evil & Darkness,  we may end up needing a lot more than what we now have.   Something like an A10 Warthog (Fairchild Thunderbolt - a genius aircraft design from the 1970's), is probably what we should be adding to the fleet.   We should be able to build a modernized Stuka/Warthog for $10 million to $15 million each.    And that would let us build a lot of them.  We may well *need* a lot of them.

[ Dec. 3, 2021 ] - Cobalt-Thorium "G" - This was the fictitious compound that powered the Russian "Doomsday Device", in the famous film, "Dr. Strangelove", one of my personal favourite movies of all time.  I have always wondered what the opposite of a "Doomsday Device" would be - a "Utopia Fabricator?"   You throw the switch, and everything becomes perfect and fine and wonderful.  Maybe we should work on this.

My sh/t continues to work.  It is surprising and uncanny.  But I think maybe I am just getting lucky - or the program is getting lucky.  It might just be tuning into randomness, and the string of accurate calls, might just be due to pure luck.   FD:  We remain fully, all-in, long.

[ Dec. 1, 2021 ] - My Sh/t Works - I am really senstive to Nassim Taleb's observation, that successfully evident traders are only those guys that fit the current regime and cycle and such - but I have lived thru 5 major sh/tstorms - Russian default in 1998, Dot-Com Bubble crash, 9/11 crash (when I was on a landline telephone to a broker, trying to sell 3000 QQQ's, and he said: "Huh?  They have just closed the market!..  It says an airplane hit the building.."  and I recall thinking "drunk guy in a Cessna?"...),  the 2008 "Financial Crisis" ( a global meltdown because of bogus models, corrupt real-estate valuators, and general nasty foolishness that dominates the professional financial world - "Here, we have some bogus high-yield-paper we want to sell you!" and the clients buy it...) and then recent Covid-19 March 2020 implosion, which almost blew us all out of the water (I bought at the bottom.  I was stupid - but I got lucky.)  But I sold too soon (like a week later, because I am really stupid... :)  ). 

But thru it all, I have focused and studied and built technical shit that just seem to work.   It is curious.   I get the crap kicked out of me on many trades, but I am still here, and, truth be told, we are doing alright.  It is curious as hell.   Two days ago, I figured I was gonna die from Covid and also eat a big loss, but I seem to be doing better much today, and the nasty phlegm is now clear-coloured, which is a very good sign, and the books are in the black...  

I mean, I look in the mirror, and it is just fu&-king awful to see - but I am actually feeling pretty good.   Three cheers for my immune system, I guess.  (And quality Nihonian food...)

And for all the practical and theory knowledge I have hacked from reality, and from books and from just looking carefully.    The financials are flying today (as my little mean-reverter calculator suggested they probably would, the stupid Covid-19 Omicron variant is actually probably a good and fine thing (it is showing exactly the kind of replicative failure, that causes viruses to become less lethal over time, and the fact that it is highly contagious, is good, because it becomes a natural vaccination vector device.)

Most humans just cannot actually think very clearly (I know how much trouble I have doing it!)

But it is possible to do just average investing stuff, and actually survive and prosper.   And with C-Machine and JunkWaffel, (which runs the HURSTGRF workspace I have been hacking on for 30 years), I can get a rough picture of what is likely to happen. 

I am still not betting properly.  I really need to work on that, since I am taking 2,500 out, when I should be taking 25,000 out, given what I am seeing, and how it could be played, if I was a bit less of a fearful pussy-cat trader.

It's just I *know* how crazy things can get, and how markets can sometimes move in a self-re-enforcing, self-accelerating manner.    (I am re-reading "Fooled by Randomness" again - such a fine and useful little book.  And if you can actually *get* what old Taleb is saying, his advice can truly help your trading efforts.  It might even make you rich.  (Hint: Low probability events, which exhibit low costs to enter, and very high payoffs, are worth looking at very carefully.  Also the flip-side:  Low probability events, which exhibit very high costs (negative payoffs)) are also worth looking at (and for) since these are *wildly* more common than the silly gaussian bell-curve bullsh/t stuff suggests.    Everyone uses near-normal distributions to assess VAR and other voodoo that does not quite work the way you think it does.  And if you are over-margined (like the wuckfits at Lehman Brothers were), then one of these very low-probability events (that are certain to happen, much more often than expected - it is in the data) - will completely *destroy* you and your enterprise.    I have hundreds of distributions of 1st difference RORs, and they *all* have these bloody little 5 or 6 or 10 sigma outliers.   All of them.  Virtually every bloody one of them - and they are across wildly different markets - share prices, interest-rate movements, gold prices, oil-prices, etc.     Mandelbrot was first to see this.  This is a really key thing.    Gauss was a genius, but Gaussian distributions are *not* how prices changes happen.  The 5, six and even 10 sigma events happen about every 25 to 50 years.   (And now, even more often, as the world now runs on internet-time)  They just do.  Go look.

I would love to sell today, but my models and C-Machine and especially JunkWaffel - all say "no, no...   we grind further, most likely,  Some bumps and blips and burpfarts along the way, but trend not violated, earnings of the underlying stuff is ramping upwards, and dividends are being increased at a rate greater than the rate of inflation.    Hands must be sat on.   Go cut down a tree, or invert some matricies or something.  Leave the portfolio alone to continue to just bloody well grow."   I find this difficult to do.  This is a weakness.

A man just has to accept and deal with his weaknesses.    Didn't Clint Eastwood say something like that?   :)

[ Nov. 31, 2021 ] - Imaginary Date, Like a Complex Number - Still got a long way to go.  Really, it is Nov. 30, in the afternoon...  

The market has comically imploded again - down 670 on the Dow, and over 400 on the TSE/SPX index.  Stupid market, stupid prices, as per usual.   Anyone who honestly believes that modern markets are "efficient" or even somewhat effective, at discounting risk, is just not sane.   The evidence continues to show:  1) Omicron Covid produces a *less* serious illness than the Delta variant, and 2) Omicron Covid is *more* contagious.   Well, duh.  This is evolution in action, the process-path to the beginning of herd immunity.  We are not there yet, but we are actually moving in the right direction.    But the *market* sees none of this.   It is hilarious.   I am trying not to die, despite feeling awful and ill.   I really want to live thru this, since it seems there will be some solid opportunities.   :)  ( I need to not die, of course....)

Here is some interesting info (which is damned difficult to find, given the awful "mainstream media" echo-chamber noise that the "search engines" now offer.  I've just discovered "thegatewaypundit.com", a fellow named Jim Hoft, who tries to do accurate (and useful) reporting.  He has offered some hard number about the current UK Covid-19 experience - specifically from time period October 25th, to November 21st, of 2021.  In the UK, there were 833,332 Covid-19 cases reported, 9,094 Covid-19 hospitalizations, and 3,700 Covid-19 related deaths.   The *unvaccinated* accounted for 39% of *ALL* cases. 34% of all hospitalizations, and 19% of all deaths.  (WHAT THE F&^K?? you might say...).    The vaccinated folks, accounted for 61% of all Covid-19 cases, 66% of all hospitalizations, and 81% of all deaths.

This information source is the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA), which publishes a weekly "Vaccine Surveillance" report containing detailed statistics on Covid-19 cases, hospitalizations and deaths, by vaccination status, for previous four weeks, across the UK.

Hoft's website link is:  https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2021/11/report-fully-vaccinated-account-81-covid-deaths-uk/

I think this is interesting data.   I have been "fully vaccinated" (two Moderna shots, April and July of this year), plus a recent flu-shot.   And look - I am *really* ill, but it might not even be Covid.  It might just be a bad flu, which is very common in Canada at this time of year - hence the annual flu shots, offered at most pharmacies.  But the most recent UK evidence suggests that the current vaccines, don't work very well, and are specifically not very effective at preventing death-by-Covid.   I would have expected the numbers to tell quite a different story.

And the problem now - especially among the leftist-leaning poltroons that absolute dominate and operate the mainstream media - is that evidence that contradicts their world-view, is simply ignored or bypassed or is quietly supressed.    

I've always recommended getting the vaccines.  But these recent UK numbers are shocking.  And they seem to match our local Ontario results, in that of the daily Covid-19 cases being reported, (ie. people are sick enough to seek medical treatment), 315/788, or roughly 40% are folks who have been "fully vaccinated". 

Taking 61% and 40%, and averaging them, 50% - you get a very rough estimate of the effectiveness of the vaccine.  (This is not valid, yes I know.  The population of "fully vaccinated" that you are drawing from is massively larger than the population of "not vaccinated", so you would expect "breakthru infections" - where the fully-vaccinated person gets sick enough from Covid-19 to seek medical help - can be quite a big number, so we need to take reported breakthru infections, as a percentage of vaccinated population, not just as a portion of total Covid reported cases for the time period.  But there is also a reporting issue, in that people who are vaccinated fully, are most likely going to be reluctant to seek medical assistance or advice, since they will believe their bad flu-like symptoms to be from - a bad flu.  This is my situation, for example.  I suspect that for every *reported* Covid case among the fully-vaccinated cohort, there are probably numerous non-reported breakthru infections where the patient has mild symptoms or is asymptomatic.  

It just seems to me, that if 40 to 60 percent of all the sick-with-Covid-19 people you treat have been "fully vaccinated", then it seems clear - the Covid-19 vaccines are just not working that well.   (UK has 80% of it's over-12 year old folks vaccinated with at least two shots, and Ontario has 86% of it's population of over-12s double-shot vaccinated.)  Both regions should just not be showing this many "breakthru" SARS-Cov-2 infections, which are serious enough for the sick folks to seek medical help.

It's very clear why the CDC in the USA, and various medical authority types in Canada, have been recommending getting a Covid-19 vaccine "booster shot".  This is because the damn vaccines are just not working very well, at preventing acquisition of, and infection by, the SARS-Cov-2 virus.

Now, the detailed science on this, says otherwise, and I am inclined to respect it, even if I don't believe it.  The data is old (last year, 2020, pre-Delta variant), and is statistical based, not patient-presenting-based.   Using a specific methodology, that one must understand carefully, ("test negative study design" - read the article, if curious), the vaccine efficacy is rated at >90% for the Moderna and Pfizer-Biontech vaccines, in Ontario.  

The real-world clinical data is saying, quietly:  "Bullsh/t.  The vaccine effectiveness is closer to 50%, rather than 90%".   And if this is true, then then the folks who choose NOT to get vaccinated, are not completely stupid.

This has been a big surprise for me.    I live in Mennonite country, and *most* of the Mennonites are *not* getting vaccinated.  I thought they were unwise.   Now, I have to re-consider.  My one neighbour tested positve for Covid-19.  I was chatting with him, on the highway, last spring, by his tractor.  I asked about his experience, and he said he was tired for a couple of weeks, but that was all.   He is older, in his late 50's or mid-60's.  But for him - an unvaccinated guy - he found Covid-19 to be no more serious than a bad cold or flu.  

So lets try to do the vaccine-effectiveness for UK:  This is from the UK numbers reported by gatewaypundit.com:  46 million people over 12, have had both doses of Covid-19 vaccine,and this indicated at 80% of the population.  So, total population of over-12s is 46m/.8 = 57.5 million total, 2-dose vaccinated + unvaccinated.

For 4 weeks, from Oct. 25th, to Nov. 21, 2021, in UK, 833,332 Covid-19 cases reported. 39% were unvaccinated, 61% were 2-dose vaccinated.  That means: 324,999 cases from unvaccinated, 508,333 cases from 2-dose vaccinated.  So with these numbers, we can estimate the probability of getting Covid-19 (actually getting Covid-19 bad enough to become a reported case, by seeking and getting medical help):

 Unvaccinated:  324999 / 11.5 million = 0.0282607  or 2.8260 %

 Vaccinated:   508333 / 46 million = 0.0110507 or 1.1050%

Getting the 2-dose vaccine drops your probability of getting serious Covid-19, from 2.826% to 1.105%, more than half.   Specifically:  1.1050 / 2.826 = .3910.  

1 - .3910 = .60898, or roughly 61%.   (Check it: .60898 x 2.826 = 1.72098 )

So, take 2.826 - 1.72098 = 1.10502%   

So, based on the current data (Oct. 25 to Nov. 21) the 2-dose mRNA vaccine in the UK, for over 12-year old people, drops the probability of getting Covid-19, roughly 61%, from 2.826% to 1.105%.    We thus view the mRNA vaccine rollout in UK, as showing evidence of roughly 60 percent vaccine effectiveness, based on most recent data available.

This is well below the reported "90% effectiveness" for mRNA vaccines, that was touted by everyone last year.

I still recommend to people to get vaccinated.  The risks are very low, and even 50% to 60% protection is better than no protection at all.   Here is a detailed statistical survey from last year, which suggests vaccine efficacy of 90%.   The link is below.  The study is well done, and may well have been accurate for datasets up to mid-2020:

https://www.bmj.com/content/374/bmj.n1943

But we all need to remain very skeptical here.    Don't "drink the Kool-Aid" just because some authority-figure suggests you should.  It may just turn out, that having a significant pool of people who are *non-vaccinated* in your country, might offer some significant future benefit, especially if all the *fully vaccinated* people get sick and die from some other lethal, opportunistic infection from a new organism that finds a wildly attractive ecological niche among the "fully vaccinated" population.  I don't think that is likely, but I have learned to respect the range of extreme, possible, edge-condition scenarios, since I see them play out, so very often, in the financial markets.  

[ Nov. 30, 2021 ] - Covid, Shmovid - I feel very goddamn crappy and sick, and I don't like being sick. For dinner last nite,  I ate half an avocado smashed up with yogourt and salsa, and spread it on corn chips (the kind used for salsa dipping).  That and some Japanese egg+fake crabmeat sticks and some tofu inari pockets filled with ginger rice, was all I could eat.   We had planned to cook a nice steak - but I really know I am messed up, when I lose my appetite for red, bloody, meat.  And wine.  I am on a no-alcohol, no-meat thing, not out of any clever diet plan, but just because I feel so weak and awful.  This might just be a flu, or even a flu from the vaccine I had a few days before I got sick.  But I think (with almost 90% probability), that I caught something ugly at the Mall/Bookstore/Apple Store. 

So tired, all I want to do is sit quietly, and breathe.  This might not be Covid Omicron/Delta, but it is nasty - body aches, fever seems to be down, but now runny nose, sneezing and dizzy.  Feel like I'm sailing on a rough patch of the River Styx. 

Market trading this AM has been ugly, despite the good news on our major holding (big earnings jump, and the dividend bumped up over 10%).  I'd do a happy dance, but it might kill me, and the share price is cratering.  Such a funny old world.    But on balance, we are crazy lucky, and doing just fine, actually, since the flu/covid/virus thing I have, is morphing into the "bad cold" phase, and that means I will be able to keep breathing, and watch the market sh/t all over us.  Real human comedy stuff, actually.  Like Leon, in Blade Runner: "I'll tell you about my mother!" ...

It's very difficult to get outside the filter-bubbles for mainstream media now, on all the search engines.   I was doing some data-research, and discovered some interesting data:  No one anywhere, has died from Omicron-Covid-19.  There have not even been hospitalizations.  Very preliminary information from South Africa, suggests that this variant produces a milder infection, than the Delta version.   What is interesting about Omicron, is the number of changes that are evident.   There are 30 specific changes, three small deletions, and one small insertion in the spike protein, and of these, 15 are in the receptor-binding domain.  It is unclear if this mutation makes the virus more or less likely to bind to human lung cells.  The Omicron variant belongs to the Pango lineage B.1.1.529, with many S-gene mutations compared to the original SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus that was identified in late 2019.   The degree of change of effectiveness of existing vaccines and antibody treatments is unknown at the moment.  But because the spike protein has undergone such a significant mutation, there is obvious concern that this mutation variant might have increased binding affinity.  But this does not mean this variant is more lethal.  It is possible that this might be an example of "replicative fading", a phenomenon that typically leads to *less* perfectly adapted evolutionary entity.  

The Omicron variant might be a less-lethal, milder form of Covid-19.  Remember - a virus or a parasite that kills it's host, is not evolutionarily successful.  If evolution is working, we would expect to see Covid evolve to become more like a bad cold, and less like a killer Spanish Flu.

And no one has died from Omicron.  It was first observed on November 11, in South Africa.   Not one, single person has died from it.  This was 18 days ago.  And yet nation-states are closing borders, and politicians are yappity-yap-yapping like excited puppies.  As of yesterday, around the middle of the day, there were 184 Omicron variant cases, and 1305 probable cases.   In Ontario, there were reported 788 new Covid-19 cases on Sunday, and 2 Omircron variant cases in the Ottawa region - from two people who had returned from Nigeria.  Of the 788 new cases, it seems that over 300 were Covid-19 cases from people who had been vaccinated.  This fact was not explicitly reported anywhere, only the number of non-vaccinated Covid cases.   There was one single Covid-19 related death, in Ontario, on Sunday.

The information I found, indicated that in Ontario, over 86 % of the population of adults have had two vaccination shots, and 89.7 % of Ontario folks 12 and older, have had at least 1 shot.   Also, as of 8:00 pm Monday, Nov. 29, two additional Omicron cases have been discovered in Ontario - also from travellers, apparently.

Of the 788 new Covid-19 cases in Ontario, reported on Sunday, Nov. 28, 439 were unvaccinated and 34 cases were people with unknown vaccination status.  788 - (439 + 34) = 315.   That means on Sunday, 315 people who had been vaccinated, were reported getting Covid-19.    That is an interesting number, and it suggests that: 1): Covid-19 is evolving to work-around the vaccine, and 2) The Covid vaccines are not perfectly effective, and even if you are vaccinated, you may still catch Covid.  And 3):  Covid-19 vaccine booster shots for all adults is probably indicated, and the US CDC has suggested this.

Ontario has had 617,803 total confirm Covid-19 cases, and as of Monday evening, Nov 29, it has reported 9,997 deaths.     Not a pretty picture, really, but not near as bad as was expected.  We get a death-rate of 9997/617803 = 1.6182 %.

And if Omicron is *less* lethal, but more contagious, it might drive that death-rate down further and faster.

[ Nov 29, 2021 ] - Lapdogs, Fly Maggots and the Fake Metaverse - Fruit fly maggots have little brains, with only roughly 15,000 neurons.  That is not many neurons, yet the little white slug-things exhibit a whole range of behaviours.  And dogs which are not even lapdogs, will typically jump up and sit in my lap.  It is pretty comical - they seem to be able to infer that I am a dog-person, and even huge Labradoodles will leap into my lap, given the chance.  Of course, I am delighted to have them sit there.   A good friend has two large animals that they raised from small pups, (Lilly and Lucy), and Lilly will jump up into my lap and sit happily.

What is interesting, is that Lucy is qutie shy, and remains back.  They will both come and greet me when I visit - but the differences in their personalities is striking.   My own little Hana does not typically like lap-sitting - and yet in the cold mornings, she will snuggle and sleep in my lap, if the farmhouse is cold (which it is today).    We had 3 inches of snow last nite, and about 1/2 hour of very bright sunshine this AM, before the new batch of snow-clouds have now moved in.  It is 8:30 am, and I see the Dow futures are up over 200 points, and the US pre-market is looking frisky.

The market shows behaviour patterns that do not even reach the level of fly maggots, and is no where near the clever wisdom of dog-knowledge.   This is truly fascinating.    The one thing that you learn about marketplace pricing, is that it is basically *WRONG*.   Whatever price you see, you can be absolutely certain that that prevailing price is complete bullsh/t.

This is *exactly* the opposite of what classical economic theory suggests, and also means that most of modern finance is also nonsense.  There is no such thing as "price discovery".  That is complete fiction.   There is "price obfuscation" and "price confusion" and "price reducto ad absurdum" and "price comedy".

Whatever the prevailing price is right now - you can be 100% certain that it is wrong.   It will be different in the very near future.  It might be *very* different.  

We traders and investors are fly maggots looking for lapdogs, who will sit in our laps, and not try to kill us by ripping out our throats.     This is the very best we can hope for - a reasonable investment, with enough value-stability and sanity in the wandering-drunk price-path, so that it will not kill us before our time to die is mandated by our biology.

There remains a wild war going on inside me.   For a while, I will feel almost fine - almost OK, and then tired, shivering, coughing so bad that I feel I will start expelling pieces of lung tissue, and then, back to ok.   Body temperature moving up and down in curious waves - maybe just a nasty flu, or something else.    I find drinking very hot coffee seems to help.  And Hana sitting on my lap, like a big furry heating pad, also helps.   It's something like minus 7 celsius this AM.  And it is not even December.   "Global Warming" is a fraud - of this, I am certain.  Our recent planetary warming trend, will be replaced by a general cooling trend - which is clearly now beginning. 

This is how our system here works.  If it didn't have this degree of ergodicity, the Earth's planetery ecology would not have survived for the billions of years it has.  "Climate Change" hysteria is a fraud, but it is a useful fraud, if it can move the needle on our current technology profiles.  Electric cars will work on Mars.  Gasoline-burning vehicles are silly, and will only work here.  We also must improve and enhance nuclear energy technology.  The "Climate Change" nonsense will let us re-frame nuclear as "Green Energy", and make nuke plants socially acceptable again.   This must happen.  We also need to make nuclear-fusion plants work, and also develop direct mass-to-energy devices, so we do not have to freeze to death in the dark.

The science says all this hard-core good stuff is possible.  We have to re-ignite the spirit of the 1960's, where it was actually possible to implement and execute successfully on, big, complex technological-change projects.   The world seems to have lost this ability.   It must be re-captured, and we must expand outward.  Otherwise, humanity will die, like bacteria in a test-tube that has eaten all its nutrients, and is now simply swimming in its own shit.

Resources on Earth are fixed and finite - and yet our population is growing exponentially.  It is not hard at all, to predict a perfect Mathusian collapse.   "Soylent Green is made out of people!!"  Ya, so what.   Better that, than eating boiled fly maggots and dead dogs.

Let's use all these neurons we have, to get the technology working in our favour again, instead of being used to trick, mislead, and dis-inform us all with "fake news" and a fictional, phony "metaverse". 

[ Nov. 27, 2021 ] - Covidicus Interruptus - Damn and hell, but I have been rather ill - typical difficulty breathing, weird up-and-down temperature changes, crazy sore/aches in strange places (back, sides, fingers, etc), and then it all stabilizes and I am feeling not too bad, with just a slight cough.  Did I get hit with Delta or Omicron?  No idea.   I had gone to the Apple Store (a very crowded, entry-controlled store in the Mall), and also a bookstore, also crowded.  Wore mask, felt fine.  But I had also had a flu shot a couple of days before, so it might be entirely due to that - or not related to any of these factors.  Might have been because I was cutting wood outside in a shirt (wearing coat makes one too warm)...  Might just be plain old-fashioned rinovirus (running nose, cough, sneezing, etc.)   No sense taking my viral creche anywhere, so I just took a tylenol, and concentrated on breathing in and out.  Feeling better today.

Also, absolutely had to be here to hack the market, for Black Friday.   See, the C-Machine had forecast - with pretty high likelyhood, a turnover,  Market in Canada was open on Thursday, Nov. 25th  (the USA Thanksgiving), and that shortened day of "Black Friday" is always good for thin-trade volatility.  Because of the AI forecast, and other factors, I had unloaded a very big chunk of the main portfolio, on Tuesday.  Nov. 23rd.  (Pretty much all of it...)   Truth be told - the AI was showing a clear tip-over was expected - was the main reason I pulled the trigger.   Big numbers, main position.

Next day (Nov. 24th), I watched in disgust as the market ran up. And then again on Thursday, the 25th (Canada was open all day, USA markets were closed for the holiday).  I felt a right doofus, and I also was coughing and having trouble breathing, but that felt secondary, compared to the fact I was missing out on some serious gain, because of what my damnfool AI program said.

But in the evening, when I checked the overnite numbers in Asia, and saw the "Omicron Implosion" (Nikkei was down something like 700 points, and the Dow futures were down over 800 points), I immediately developed new respect for the little AI.   It new *nothing* about the Covid hoo-haw.  But the trend curve had topped out, and turned over hard.  The information was already in the prices.   Just like the old boys used to say.

I made the dumb-assed mistake of buying everything back, right at market open.  I estimated a bid, based on price deltas in US trading pre-market, and put in my order 1 minute before market open.  I got filled 7 seconds after market open, so some folks made some serious money on my order, but such is life.  (7 seconds is like getting a fill an hour later, in the modern markets... but I am not complaining.  My mistake for not just sitting on my hands until closing time...)

Key point here:  We took out a decent bit of cash, and re-acquired back to our previous key position.  ( My mid-range view is that one *must* be long-long in this kind of rising-inflation market.  )

But my trading is an *awful* trading strategy.  Just awful - totally path-dependent, and dopey and silly, and probably I am getting fooled by randomness, and just getting lucky, blah blah blah blah.

Except this gosh-darn trade just keeps working and working and working - it keeps going like the Energizer Bunny with Tesla batteries on it's back.  It is just silly, and all the "efficient markets" bullsh/t that they taught us in economics school is just plain balls-to-the-wall wrong.  I keep doing this nonsense, because it just keeps working.  It's uncanny.

See, the Covid/Omicron thing is not what triggered the Black Friday meltdown this year.  It was already in the prices - you could bloody well *see* it, if you just took the time to look.

One of our new devices is the "Junkwaffel" machine.  "Junkwaffel" was built entirely from scrap bits and pieces - it is an "MS-DOS" machine, with a lot of memory, runs code built with DJGPP, and it is actually on the internet, using a hacked Crynwr TCP "Packet Driver".    "Daneel" is not built yet (climbing serious learning curve, I am), but C-Machine and Junkwaffel are running not too badly - quite well, actually.   Which is good, because we need the CDN dollarettes to cover costs.  I just renewed the car & truck licenses online today, and dropped almost $1000 - just for little license-plate stickers that will hopefully be mailed out to us at some point. 

We are not planning to die just yet, so figured we better keep all the vehicles roadworthy...!  :)

[ Nov. 25, 2021 ] - Happy Thanksgiving, USA Eat a big turkey for us!   All the best, to my American cousins and friends.   I visited a Mall in town, both the Apple Store and a big book-store, called Chapters.  And I caught something nasty.  We've been double-vaxed for Covid, and just got our flu-shots a week ago, but I am just wrecked with some damn virus - all the symptoms, fever, difficulty breathing, seriously dizzy (a kind of 6-beer wobbly feeling, which I recall from my seriously mis-spent youth...)   But the vax-action seems good - I can literally feel a serious war going on in my lungs and other bio-systems.   One gets these waves of change - you feel ok and fine, and then, for a while, you feel like crap, and get wheezy - and then an hour later, you feel not bad, again.   This is actually your own immune system assaulting the infection.  

[ Nov. 24, 2021 ] - We Fixed the Apple MacBook Air, New OWC 250gb SSD Drive Works Good - It is not possible to install the original Apple Mac OS/X operating system onto a repaired Macbook Air, from the Apple "Internet Recovery" system, despite Apple's instructions saying this should work.  In discussions with Apple technicians at the Apple Store, they confirmed that the facility to make this work, is disabled.  So we wasted *days* trying to do this.

If you put a new SSD drive into your Macbook, to replace a defective SSD "disk" (it is actually a circuit board, with SSD chips on it, which mimics a "disk drive") then you MUST create - using a different Apple Macbook, a "Bootable Mac OS/X Install Drive" - typically on a little USB stick.  The USB stick has to be at least 16GB (8 gb is too small!), and you must follow the instructions on this Apple Instruction Page, very carefully.  You will have to use "Internet Recovery" on the dead machine to connect to the internet, AND you must set the system date to the current date (some early advice had indicated that system date had to be set back to the date of the original machine setup.  This is not the case now.  You might also have to use the Safari version on the "Internet Recovery" stub, to make a connect to Apple Support, and press enter when asked for the password for the "login" keychain.

We successfully did the whole procedure - but initial attempts failed with Apple OS/X install process saying "The copy of the install OS X <your OS version, ie, Yosemite, Sierra, etc.)> application can't be verified."   We think the message resulted from the system date being set to Nov. of 2012 (the date of the Macbook purchase), but we are not sure.   What did happen, is that once we updated the system date on the target Macbook Air (with the new OWC SSD drive card installed and formatted), we were finally able to get the Install of Yosemite to run - which took over a hour to complete.  (We chose old Yosemite Mac OS/X, because it was the earliest .DMG file version of Mac OS/X offered by the Apple download. )   The install finally ran (which means the OS/X was successfully verified, as the first step.   Note we had already formatted the OWC SSD drive, to use Mac journaling file system.

Here is critical link to the Apple Support Note, which describes the procedure that must be followed, to put a new copy of Mac OS/X onto a new, blank, virgin SSD drive:

https://support.apple.com/en-us/HT201372

This approach requires use of "terminal", and you must keytype the path-referenced "createinstallmedia" commands exactly and correctly.  This method is the *only* way that an old version of OS/X can be installed on a new MacBook SSD drive.

Also, you have to build - on a different Macbook (we used a MacBook Pro, with at least 100gb of real disk space on it) -  a complete Application to build the  "Bootable Install Volume for Mac OS/X".  You first download the .DMG file, then click on it to turn it into a .PKG file, then run the .PKG file, to create the "Build Installable MacOS Bootable Volume" Application, in your Applications directory, on this other Macbook.  You plug in the USB stick, and run the newly built Application, to create the OS/X Installable Bootable Volume on the USB stick.  Note: it is a good idea to rename your USB DISK to something like "MyVolume" or some such name without the stupid embedded space, which will cause grief when you try to run the "createinstallmedia" command.

The .dmg files to build the Application to make the bootable install OSX images, can be found here: 

https://support.apple.com/en-us/HT211683

We used Yosemite, because it is confirmed to work, based on the technical specs for Yosemite. These are documented here:

https://support.apple.com/kb/SP711?locale=en_US

We were finally able to complete this process, and we have repaired the MacBook Air, which now has a new, OWC 250mb SSD drive, and uses the FIrefox 78.x ESR web-browser, which we have confirmed works with all the sites we need to access.

Note that this information is somewhat contrary to the "advice" you will be offered from the "Genius Bar" at an Apple Store.   Stuff we were told there, was simply wrong, so we had no choice but to do this task ourselves.   Also note:  we notice that the referenced Apple servers that do the .DMG file downloads, appear to be local, in Canada.  If you are in USA or elsewhere, this may or may not work.  If someone tries this, and it works ok in USA, let me know, and I will update this post.

[ Nov. 23, 2021 ] - We Bought a New SSD Drive for an Apple Macbook Air.  Apple has Rigged Their Recovery Software, to Prevent the Original Apple OS/X Operating System from Being Loaded onto the new SSD Drive.   - I know some people accuse Apple of being an abusive and nasty monopoly, but I never realized just how harsh this company is, until we tried to do this simple exercise.    I've managed to monitor, in real-time, the install-logs, and it is possible to see everything working, but the Apple Server (which holds the OS/X operating system code), simply (and deliberately) fails the validation checks, and this prevents the software from being loaded.

The machine was sold *without* a CD-ROM disk of the O/S, (the critical operating system that makes the machine operate)  but we were assured at the Apple Store, that one could always download a fresh copy of the Mac OS/X operating system code from Apple, in the event our MacBook needed a new SSD drive. 

(SSD drives - "Solid State Disk" drives - are little chips on a circuit board, that mimic the operation of a disk-drive.  They all eventually will fail, within a few years, as the little chips can only be "flashed" so many times, until they expire.) 

The SSD drive in our MacBook Air failed (it used Toshiba chips), and we replaced it with a new SSD board from OWC, which has been set up and formatted correctly.  We were assured at time of purchase that fresh copies of the OS/X could always be loaded from the internet.   

But Apple appears to have made this impossible.  All the internet access and download technology works, but Apple as simply tweaked the process to prevent it from *validating* the downloaded code.  You can confirm this by watching the install log as the OS/X install is attempted by the Apple Internet Recovery program.  (It really *should* work.)

So, it looks like a legislative, not a technical, solution will be required.  If we cannot install the original OS/X operating system on the new SSD drive for the MacBook, we promise we will sue Apple, and ask for the lawsuit to be granted class-action status, as *many* other folks report this exact same problem.

It is not a technology problem - it appears to be a policy decision by Apple, to destroy and degrade the operational viability of older products.

This is classical abusive trade practice, and the solution is to invoke the "right-to-repair" laws, and also involve the anti-monopoly regulators in each nation where Apple operates.

We will ask that Apple provide physical copies of the original OS/X version, on CD-ROM or other media,  for each machine, to all registered owners of Apple Macbooks.   This requirement needs to go into law, so the abusive behaviour of the Apple monopoly can be checked and at least limited.  

Note: Apple is not all bad.  Here is an example of Apple doing the *right* thing.  They are suing those bastard-criminals at NSO group, that developed the FORCEDENTRY and PEGASUS malware, to target and exfiltrate and monitor iPhone users.  Apple recommends iOS 15.  The very good people at "CitizenLab"  (based in Toronto, Canada), were key to discovering the astonishingly abusive spyware that was being used by corrupt, State-level actors, to target journalists, government-workers, academics, and other so-called "threats to national security".

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/apple-sues-nso-group-curb-180000182.html

Let us be *very* clear, here.  the "threats to national security* come directly, from malware and spycode, exactly as produced and marketed by the Israeli gangsters running NSO Group.   They are just old-fashioned, hard-core pure-evil bastards, and we wish Apple all success in their attempt to shut the Israeli-Government-backed NSO criminal group, completely down.  The two founders of that group should be arrested, charged and convicted of computer-hacking crime... The law in Canada is *VERY* clear on the criminal nature of what NSO was enabling.  

[ Nov. 22, 2021 ] - Shake (and Bake) Your MoneyMaker - The idea of growing a big bucket of brain cells, and then using this assemblage to create a wetware neural-net processor is not new.  What is new, is that this has now been done - and even to the point of growing small "mini-brains" with working optic-cups, where each "optic cup" had lenses, retina cells, and was light-sensitive.  (Might one call this a "synth-eye"?)  

A group of researchers have used a multistep organogenesis methodology to create neural tissue (from human iPSCs - induced pluripotent stem cells), complete with optic vesicles.  The cellular sphere is called an "organoid" and it is basically a small neural assemblage, complete with two optic entities.  The summary stories speak of "optic cups", and we figured a bit of retina tissue -but no, the results were vastly more impressive.  The "optic cups" had lenses, cornea tissue, retinal progenitor cells, pigment epithelia (dark "skin"), axon projections, myelinated cortical neurons (myelinated neurons are like an insulated wire, like an optic nerve), evident microgila (tiny nerve fibres) - and, most important - the resulting neural network is electrically active, and shows clear evdience of being light senstive.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1934590921002952

This is a big deal.  We had read popular press stories about this, but the journal article was just published last month, in "Cell: Stem Cell".   The journal article is sadly, behind a paywall, so we cannot access it (we have no direct University links).    But the summary abstract did indicate the neural-net organoids were kept alive and growing for at least 60 days, that they were electrically active, and that the synthetic "eyes" were light-sensitive, and appeared to be communicating optic information to a primitive, self-organized, sensory structure.

Well, that should all be enough, right there.  It's an engineering problem now.   Grow the organoid neural-net in a nutrient-rich surrogate to sufficient scale (several hundreds of millions, or maybe a few billion neurons), keep it alive, connect it to the data-sources, give it some incentive to provide actionably useful results, and then let it watch everything, and offer some indication of "go long", "go short", or "unclear, do nothing"

This used to be the wildest science-fiction, but this is no longer the case.  The pluripotent  adult stem cells (made by genetically tweaking existing human adult cells), avoids the need to use dead-baby stem-cells, so this whole experiment becomes possible now - both operationally and ethically.  (Using human-embryo sourced stem cells does seem to cross an ethical red-line.)

One obvious concern is that if one were to grow a good-sized neural-net - a mini-brain - it might become somewhat self-aware, and that raises other ethical questions - like what you do with it, if it can't or won't be effectively trained?   After a long series of 'bad trades", you pick up the beaker, and walk towards the autoclave to terminate it, and it starts to show "distress", and communicates "please do not kill me!", via the synaptic link.   You would really have an ethical problem.   Unless you were in China, of course.   :(

[ Nov. 21, 2021 ] - When the Price Change Puffs Air, Do the Traders Scrunch, or Turn Their Heads?

The brain of the larvae of fruit flies, has roughly 15,000 neurons.  And yet the larvae are reported to show about 30 different behaviours.  Attempts to map the biological "connectome" (the map of neural-net connections), and link it to the creature's behaviour, are proving to be difficult.

https://www.nature.com/articles/548150a

Perhaps a biological approach might yield more effective results, than an electronic, simulation approach in a computer can do.   The obvious experiment would involve growing a great, large mass of linked-neurons, in a nutrient-rich environment, subjecting this synthetic "brain' to market-data inputs, designing (or accessing) some sort of incentivization circuit, and detecting or extracting an output somehow, which would correspond to an action-variable - eg. "Good Market Conditions, make BUY" or "Bad Market Conditions, make SELL" or "Unclear, Take No Action".

It's funny.  We used to think of ourselves as "lab rats'.    But recent neural science looks to decode trading behaviour more directly, as the work on the 15,000 neuron fly-larvae brain progresses.   We are not metaphorical lab rats anymore.  Now, we are fly maggots.

Science marches forward.    :)

[ Nov. 19, 2021 ] - The Diamond Age of Bullshit - It's like plaid.  What comes after "the Golden Age of Bullshit"?  What comes after "Post-Modern?"  What is heavier than solid neutronium?   Maybe the galactic core, populated by Neutron Stars, all orbiting a giant Black Hole of Mass-Sucking Horror, ripping everything over it's event horizon, and flinging out teravalues to the exponent giganumber of terawatts of system-melting radiation wave-particles, across all frequency spectrums?   Sorta like Chinese political process does to the truth, or the US Leftist Groups do to sanity.    We seem to be living on a giant steaming nightmare of foolishness now.

The only saving grace, is that things seem to be driving along with a curiously predictable process nature. We develop these awful, worst-case scenarios of stupid-crazy goofballery, and then we watch them play out, just as expected.   Our only error is that we don't bet enough of the portfolios on the idiotic outcomes.

We suspect real, solid, hard-core revolutions will come soon, to many places, given the tragic-stupid awful boneheadedness that seems to be in charge of everything, everywhere now.   It's like the whole planet political process-efforts, are very similar to drunken teenagers, driving their stolen cars as fast as they can make them go, on icy roads, at night, with the lights out, while drinking whiskey laced with crack.    One observes this repeating set of phenomenon, and concludes simply: "This will not end well."    :/

[ Nov. 17-18, 2021 ] - Up All Night to Get Lucky - The new system called the turn.  Or maybe we just got lucky.  Played it badly, re-purchased way too soon,   The whole "Daneel" thing is a mess of circuit-boards spread all over the living-room floor, but it is showing promise.   The system shows astonishing ability.   The weakest factor, is the human.   Curious how many people (who are profitable) report a similar experience.   Knowing must be balanced correctly with action, and this is surprisingly difficult to do.  Je suis tres fatige, mais j'avais une petite "eurka".

[ Nov. 15, 2021 ] - Here Comes the (Artificial) Sun - and the Winter.  The Northern High's are upon us, along with the snow.  Time to get the chainsaw out.    Otherwise, we will freeze in the darkness, since that satellite bitstream, will not keep us warm...

[ Nov. 12, 2021 ] - Sunny November Days, Time Winds Down, Clocks Fall Back, Prices Go Up - Weather is nice.  Up north for a few days, closing nothern office, cleanup work, deck repairs, shutdown for winter.  Lots of work.   Astonishing how heavy the traffic - in mid-week - is now.  Monster agricultural equipment everywhere.  Last bits of corn & grain harvest being brought in.   Makes back-roads high-speed driving difficult.   Exhausted & tired, but got it done.

Finished re-reading "When Money Dies", a detailed account of the German hyper-inflation of the 1919 to 1924 period.   It was written by Adam Fergeson, back in 1975.  It is well-written and researched, and is most interesting.

Inflation is a scam, a financial trick, used to essentially tax the public.  And fixing it, often involves terrible destruction of financial assets, as governments do "reset" events, to repudiate their debt obligations.   When inflation starts accelerating, most of the public is too stupid to take action, and bogus laws and restrictions were typically put in place by corrupt, dishonest government entities, which had the clear effect of impoverishing middle-class folk by destroying the value of their financial assets.  It was not just Germany - both Austria and Hungary were smashed by hyperinflation.   And the inflation no way helped Germany pay it's "Reparations" payments, since they were basically quoted in gold - as were most internation payments at the time.

The inflation allowed the economy to run flat-out, almost no unemployment, for a couple of years, but then it accelerated, France invaded the Ruhr coal and iron-ore mining & steel-making region, and Germans were reduced to being essentially low-paid, almost slave-labour, to meet the French demands for payment-in-kind "reparations".    The astonishing stupidity and avarice of the French ensured that Germany would certainly re-arm, and return to war, once it was able to.   If it had not been Hitler, it would have been someone else.  Keynes tried to warn that bankrupting Germany would be the result of the "reparations", and the German inflation was an unwise financial trick, required to keep the post-war economy operating.

The entire time-period of post World War One Europe should be studied in detail, as just about everyone made the worst possible decisions at every key juncture.  The only folks who spoke with any sanity or common-sense, were the Americans - but French and British political and government people basically insisted on the economic destruction of Germany.   And the German central bankers had this insane model, which suggested that a certain pound-sterling amount of cash had to be kept circulating in Germany - so as the Reichmark versus the British Pound exchange rate fell, and then fell again, this dolt Haverstein would order *more* German Marks to be put into circulation - which of course caused the exchange rate to fall even more.

This was a level of stupidity that can only be seen in Government, because there is no financial check on how far this kind of madness-crazy stupidity can actually run.    A private business will run out of money, or out of borrowing capacity, or be cut-off by it's bankers and/or investors.   But a Government can just keep going.  It *always* takes regime change ( or a beneficial death!) for the madness of wrong-action to be halted and corrected.   Haverstein finally did one good thing, and died, just as Schact was put in charge, to begin to repair the madness, by simply issuing the "RentenMark" ( a complete piece of fiction), but a currency that was *not* subject to the insane moneyprinting of the Haverstein model.  It actually worked, and a degree of stability became possible (as did high-unemployment, and more serious poverty for most people).

For a student of real Economics (not the nonsense they teach in University classes), this time period and this inflation is one of the most interesting in all of human history, on par with John Law's experiment with paper-money in France, in the early 1700's.  Nation-states become laboratories, and real Economics can be studied, to see what works, and what does not.

[ Nov. 9, 2021 ] - Righteous Living - Amazing amount of work just keeping the technology ticking good.  Had to upgrade a couple of Linux boxes with security fixes (something like 508 separate prgms!), and upticked a version number on the Linux kernel on the 32-bit fire-breather laptops.  Hilarious of course.  First most critical laptop upgrade - bitched everything.  X11/Gnome would not start, and when I finally got it to run, my critical database+analysis application would not update from the data.  Arrgh!

The X11/Gnome fix involved running X11 System Configuration (discovered by reading the damn code in the /etc directory for X11 startup.  But so worth it, it turns out.  I got massive (almost unbelievable!) improvement in screen-resolution.  Had no idea the ACER laptops were capable of such beautiful, sharp super-hi-res display.  Really awesome improvement.

And then, the critical application+database - would not update the data from the Lynx-downloaded files.  Just a silly, nutter issue.  Turns out, the big filename <=> dataseries-name table, when being read, was now being read differently (after the security upgrades), probably due to more correctly and more accurately processing buffer-contents.  With the upgrade, the table-file was NOW picking up the filename, WITH a trailing carriage-return character, and then using that to try to open the related file.  It meant no matches at all between the lookup-table, and the actual filenames on the disk.  Hilarious.  But an easy fix (just scan-out any spurious junk non-ascii characters - except for future compatibility, I only scanned out CR, since maybe someday, I have to use UNICODE filenames or some annoying silly thing like that.).   (True Confessions:  I still seriously miss TOPS-20.   Like old girlfriends who were *really* good, or dear, dead departed dogs from years gone by, you remember what excellent actually was, and felt like).  :)

Anyway, with wonderful WINE (the WINdows Emulator, that is not an emulator), I have the laptop upgraded, with super-hi-resolution display, and the mission critical data-getter and analysis engine running correctly on all the Linux boxes - CentOS-6.6, CentOS-7.x, and the older (super reliable) 2.6.x kernel boxes.   Linux with the MIT X11 stuff (and the Gnome-slushpile on top), actually works crazy-well, as it allows a universe of other stuff, to run also - Lynx, GNUplot, various APL's and various neural-net voodoo that is sort-of-semi-secret (but not really, if you read my notes).

Also, no where near finnished the C-code stuff  (new, native full-on GUI front-end for bunch-o-stuff), and also working on *transistors*.   I know vaccum-tubes like the back-o-my hand, but hacking deep into semi-conductor tech has been on my list of stuff-to-learn, so I built some crappy breadboard stuff - an emitter-follower common collector amplifier, as a tiny example. 

My first build is skank-awful, clips badly  because the voltage-divider circuit that keeps the V-out range for the transistor at the right point, is tricky.  (I used junk-box resistors - and they need to be super-accurate, for the transistor mid-point voltage to be established correctly.)    Transistor circuits are more sensitive to component values, than tube circuits.  But you have the advantage of being able to fiddle-about with them, while they are working, and not have 800volts flow up one arm, and down the other, and stop your heart.  (Vaccum-tubes use *high* voltage - most of my hack-stereo amps have 350 to 400 volts flowing thru the tubes.  But they sound very nice.  You can hear the guitarists when they touch the frets, before they whack the strings, stuff like that...)

But I don't like connecting the iPad (or any computer tech) to the vaccum-tube equipment, without I have an optical isolator (and I don't have one), since one tiny error, and you can send enough voltage thru your low-voltage hardware to destroy it - and maybe yourself, also...

Problem with transistors, is the god-awful clipping.  Vaccum-tubes are very tolerant of being wildly overdriven.  Tranistors are very much not - and they make the most awful, awful waveforms, if things are just a tiny bit away from perfect.  Real engineer's toys.  But also absolutely critical now to just about every single piece of technology we have anywhere and everywhere now.

Funny thing.  All the really, really useful stuff, that I learned in school - was in auxilary or extra classes that I took for amusement and curiosity.   I took a course in ham-radio (a teacher in our high-school was an electronics guy, with a radio license), I took a course in accounting-principles (I was doing Economics, and nowhere did anyone say anything at all, about how business accounting worked - the most important aspect of commercial opertions, IMHO) and I took a course in interactive computer programming, using the  APL Language (first year at Univ. of Toronto, which was still using card-and-paper to teach PL/1 and Fortran to us.  If you wanted real-time interactive experience, you had to use APL on IBM 2741 terminals, with the proper "ball" installed. (Installation of the correct ball, turned out to very actionable and useful knowledge - applicable across many subject domains...)    All these courses were non-credit, were taught by interesting teachers with  real passion for their subject material, and each one was crazy useful, and very, very helpful to me. 

The Accounting course was *really* helpful... I went on later to take the Ontario CSC (Canadian Securities Course) and the Conduct and Practices Course, but you could not get a "Stockbrokers License" without you were first *working* as a goddamn employee of a Brokerage firm.    That just super-sucks, and is crazy abusive and unfair.  But the crappy-corrupt industry here (and in most modern Klepto-States) likes it this way.   

If I become the Minister of Finance before I die, I promise to change this shit.  Anyone who is willing to take the course, and can pass the tests, should get the license.  The licensing rights, privilages and obligations and duty-to-be-honest should be held by the *person*, not by some semi-corrupt company run by fatboys.  I remain a tad radical about this.  We have to run fair systems, that balance and define responsibility correctly. 

And we are just not there yet.  Too much ugly fraud can be done by a company, without any people paying the price for being basically criminals.  (Eg. Nortel).    It is so very easy to fix this problem   We just make all the license requirements and obligations devolve directly down to each individual person - like it does for Chartered Accountants  (another bloody great scam of Biblical proportions...)  :)

But the accounting course - surprisingly - was both interesting, and crazy useful, as it became clear how business (and private-person) accounting worked, and why it was so damn useful.  It goes back to the 1400's, and the whole double-entry assets versus liabilities thing, is very, very clever and useful.  Key accounting fact you need to know:  Assets - Liabilities = Shareholders Equity.  Absolutely everything flows from that simple equation.  The Balance Sheet is a *snapshot* in time, showing business status as of a particular day.  The Income Statement is a description of the flows of money that took place over a particular time-period, a year, a quarter, a month, etc.   The *retained-earnings* is the value that connects the income-statement to balance sheet - or at least it should. 

There is all sorts of financing and cash-flow stuff that can happen, and lots and lots of room for fraud and fiction (the "capitalization of expenses" is a good one, for example.  You spend a lot of money on some damn thing, and you argue that you are building a big good thing, so your expeditures are building up an asset - like the "work-in-progress" valuations..  Except it can all be bogus.  If you are building a nice house, or a new, fine factory to make a good, in-demand product, this might be fine.  But if you are building some really shitty software, which will be buggy and awful and bad and crash airplanes (for example), then maybe you had better just expense (ie *not* capitalize) your development costs. 

The way costs are treated is a huge, huge issue, and determines whether the business is good or bad.   You might want to invest in a good business.   You also want to *AVOID* investing in a bad business.

And your understanding of how accounting principles work, will let you determine which is which.

No one ever taught this in school - except one guy, as a free night class, at University of Waterloo.   The class was full, I recall.  It was short, sharp, clear and has kind of made me sort of rich. And it was not even a credit class.   :)

Funny how that works.

[ Nov. 7-8th, 2021 ] - It's Raining Weathermen - For amusing distraction, I am re-reading "Fooled by Randomness".  Interesting how much useful info one extracts on subsequent reads of well-written books.  Talab may be a rude prick, but he is a good writer, and his book has stood the test of time (unlike oh so many worthless tomes of baldersash and buffoonery).   The world is full of fools, and is run by idiot-savants who have learned the Art of Misdirection.   Twitter is perhaps the worst thing ever invented, and Facebook perhaps a close second.  The internet was going to be a wonderful giant library full of "all knowledge", and motivate democratic enlightenment around the world.

Instead, the most evil among us  - like those NSO monsters in Israel, for example (and even their Alphabet-Squadron namesakes - the NSA in the USA) - have turned it into the two-way televisor technology of Orwell's "1984".   That is just hilarious, really.    It shows that the Great Sweep of History is just a stable-broom, constrantly used to whisk out the dung from the barn-floor.  Nothing ever really changes.    What is sold now, is the illusion of positive change (with the dark reality kept quietly in the background.).

The best technological invention of the last 60 years is probably Eugene Stoner's AR-15 rifle.  It is just about perfect (much like a fuel-injected, low-emission automobile engine also is).  It stands at the end of a very long evolutionary development process - as does the integrated circuit and the CRISPR DNA splicing technology.   It takes a long time to get something right.

And what is curious, is just how disruptive good design actually is.   There are always evil forces that seek to degrade, limit, restrict and remove the machinery of positive change.

It is *those* folks we must "Stand on guard" against - not the funny-looking foreign-person who has different colour skin or different shaped eyes.    Our most dangerous enemies are the smiling politico-types, who have learned to manipulate the neural machinery of deception and aggressive obfuscation.  They can get the ignorant and the folks of limited cognative ability to march and march, and echo the Daily Lies, so much like the "Two-Minute Hate" that Orwell documented so carefully in his clever, awful little book. 

I thought 1984 was pretty close to being the deep-past.    But it seems still to hint at the future.   

See, the key takeaway from 1984, is that Winston Smith and Julia needed to have AR-15's, and that the "Two-Minute Hate" could be re-programmed to target not Goldstein, but Big Brother himself.

The "Tin-Foil Hat" crazy-people are not our enemies.   It is those guys in their suits, who have created processes and technical methodolgies, which ensure that no change to their abusive frauds and criminal enterprises are possible - example: Ortega in Niccarauga, and Lukashenko in Belarus.   I fear this is the pattern for the Future.   The criminals gain power, and then they rig the game, so they cannot be removed (like that toxic madman Mao, who burnt-down China).

This process is happening here, also - in both North America and Europe.  It is a problem.

[ Nov. 4, 2021 ] - Left-Fa$cist A-h@les in Power Positions - It is fascinating reading the dis-information and spin-manipulation that is taking place around the January 6th protest in Washington.     The new Leftist American Fascists (many of whom seem to be card-carrying "Democrat" party members) are now characterizing the January 6th protests as an "insurrection".   What an impressive lie!   Calling it an attempt at a violent "insurrection" is an absolute fraud.    Virtually no-one but the Washington Police and the Government security people were armed, and they wisely decided not to open fire on the un-armed crowd of citizen-protesters.  This was a good decision.

But an astonishing squadron of abusive, dishonest, Democrat "Judges" are handing out prison sentances to real-estate agents, office-worker, farmers, and other ordinary folks who arrived - unarmed - and tried to express their views on the what the protesters saw as the outright fraud and abusive dishonesty that characterized the recent US Presidential "election".  Regardless of how that strange election's results have been "sanitized", I watched it, and it sure looked like to me (and others) that Trump had won.    But all that is history now.   Those big bags of Biden-ballots were able to swing the results, and righteous people can only wait for another election to be held, and to try to ensure that it is honest and fair.

But the Democrat reprisals against the protesters is interesting.   And it is deeply disturbing.  Democrat-voting neo-Fascist agents were moving about the nation, provoking riots, motivating people to smash urban neighbourhoods, burn down cities, riot and do great violence - and the Woke-Left Fascists - supported by Democrats and their media-agents - even suggested that Americans should "defund the Police".     There has been no judicial reprisals against these folks.   This looked like madness - but it was not. 

Because it got Joe Biden elected - and his abusive, dishonest cronies got their powerful "catbird" seats, with power, privilage, and wealth.    And they got their licence to attack anyone and everyone who has tried to thwart their efforts.  Their plan now, is to raid the Treasury, and fund their cronies - to the tune of trillions of newly-printed US dollars.  Not good.  And maybe difficult.  But reprisals are easier, especially against the little guys and gals, who have no power.

And so now, a systematic attempt is underway to attack the weak and the underfunded, who have little choice but to plead guilty and go to jail, because they went to Washington to protest the outright fraud that they saw take place on election night, on their televisions.  They could not stop the Democrat machine from taking over, and collection of Leftist political opportunists from taking power in Washington.  But at least they tried.    We should give them credit for trying.

But the abusive "Democrat Judges" are giving them jail sentances.

The Democrat reprisals are ugly.   The world - right now - and even more so in the near future - needs and will need - an angry, strong, focused and willing-to-fight and die-for-their-beliefs America.    We need a Good and a Right-thinking, strong, fair and focused America.    Instead we got "Runaway Joe", and a morally-degraded and emotionally damaged US military that now appears (inaccurately) to be weak and broken.   This is a real problem.    The "War on Terror" was a minor skirmish, compared to what is looming in the future. 

I read these absurd lies in the American Leftist media, and it just blows my mind.   The liar-Leftist skanks who are suggesting the January 6th protest was "an insurrection" are such dishonest lying human garbage that it makes me just sick to my stomach.   

A real insurrection will involve a *lot* of guns and fighting, it will last for weeks or months, the body count will by measured in the *thousands* (or more), and it will involve the mass-murder of the protesters, and a subsequent secondary assault against the Government Fascist forces, which can also be expected to have a high level of violence, and the body count will be a large number.

It may or may not succeed, depending on which faction the Army and other forces, back.   This is how real "insurrections" work - they are bloody affairs, and they make real change happen.  Often, they are the only way change *can* happen.   This is unfortunate, but often true.

The January 6th protest event was a crowd of angry citizens trying to communicate with their so-called "Government", which they honestly believed was not legitimate, and which they viewed as being engaged in an illegal action which was trying to usurp power and authority unlawfully.

America is a democracy, and it appeared - to the protesters - that democracy had be stolen from them.   They thought they were justified in taking action to try to wrest their democracy back from the professional political opportunists, who they viewed as political thieves acting illegally.  

It was a protest.    And it truly needs to be seen as such.

But calling a legitimate protest against a corrupted and fraud-filled election process "an insurrection", is just another "fake-news" political gambit to allow the kind of ugly, politically motivated abuse-of-justice that we are seeing play out now.   This is just so wrong.

There is this rotting stench of failure and abuse - just disgusting human sludge - that comes from the offices of the US Government now.   Yes, you CAN fool some of the people all of the time, and all of the people, some of the time - and that is now enough, given that you also have a Leftist media lie-machine working for you, and you understand human neural-technology, and how to control human behaviour at the mass-market social level.

It is simply enough.   The Lie Machines can engineer the results you want to see, if enough money and dis-information is spread around, using the appropriate manipulative media technology.

But the various Judges and Woke-Left-Fascist Democrat toads that are attacking the individual January 6th protesters, and jailing them, might remember that the Wheel of Change does not freeze in place.     This witch-hunt taking place now, might just run in reverse, if there happens to be change of Government in the future.  

Once there is a change in Government, it will be necessary to carry out a very serious house-cleaning, and this time, the gloves will probably be off.  You need to deal with the bad folks, the thieves, the opportunists, the Fellow-Travellers, the woke-action-squadrons and all their nasty, dangerous abusive ilk.  And you need to take down the corrupt judges.  You defund them.  You strip them of their wealth and power, and you make an example of them that all can see clearly.

And if "change in Government" becomes impossible in USA (like it seems to be in most nations everywhere now, given the bogus procedures now in place almost everywhere), then the next "insurrection" may not be a faked-up media lie, but in fact, might actually be the real thing.

We really hope that can be avoided.  But if not, it will be even more interesting.

Let's Go, Brandon.

[ Nov. 2, 2021 ] - Let's Go, Dow Jones! - Dow 36,000 was reached yesterday.  An interesting event for me, since I vividly remember standing in a bookstore, in the Atrium (just north of the Eaton's Centre, in Toronto), and reading part of the book, titled "Dow 36,000", which came out back in 1999, and predicted this number - which was expected to be reached in the next few years - 2002 to 2005 timeframe I seem to recall.  This was a time of stability, and expections were high for peace and prosperity for the new 21st century.  Instead, the opposite happened - a veritable series of worst-case-scenario shitstorms, that are pretty common in the historical record - the dot-com bubble exploded, the scary-successful 2001 9/11 terrorist attacks on New York and Washington, and then the 2007-2008 US mortgage-fraud/financial-crisis meltdown, triggered by the bogus risk-models promoted by brain-fogged academics, embraced by low-honesty ratings agencies, and then weaponized by Wall Street clever boys.

And once we thought we had navigated thru all that steaming shit-storm of exploding investment land-mines, the Chinese unleash a lethal viral pandemic - and subsequent economic output collapse - upon the whole bloody world.

What is amazing, is just how important wise investing was, is, and still is expected to remain. 

The use of economic models - implicit or explicit - and some sort of evidence-based valuation assessment is critical.  It's the difference between investment success and failure, and as one's investments become one's primary source of income - this difference is the difference between life and death itself.

I knew - back in 1999, standing in Lichtman's wonderful little bookstore (that sold me my Wall Street Journal every morning), that "Dow 36,000" was both inevitable, and also an insanely "heroic" forecast, not likely to be seen for quite a while.  My detailed reviews and analysis of the post World War One, to the mid-1930's period - in USA especially - convinced me of this.  Markets run up, and then break down - pretty much mostly based on liquidity and the amount of money that is flowing and floating. 

So many unique and random events can affect the amount of money flowing around.    Everything from demographics to financial market technology to cultural bias to science discovery and engineering technical improvements - it all plays a role.  But it is money that drives the process - and the amount of money circulating is both improved by rising asset valuations and, the rising circulation of money enhances and drives upward realized asset prices.  And of course, credit available and the cost of credit is hugely important.

More money, means rising prices.   And rising prices means more money (maybe) for most folks, as they can hypothecate (borrow against) their rising asset values - to get more money.   So the process feeds itself, until it gets silly - like started happening in the middle of 1929, in USA and in USA-connected markets around the world.

You can read political garbage from fraudsters & lefty economists (like J. K. Galbraith), but the 1929 crash happened because of two things:  Interest rates were raised from 4% to 6%, by the USA federal authorities, and stocks were being - mostly - bought on credit, with as little as 10% down-payment for the purchases.  If you only put 10% down (buy on skinny margin), a 10% price drop will wipe you out.  A more than 10% drop, will burn away your wealth.

That means, once the interest-costs were jacked up 50% (!  A really goddamn massive price-increase in the cost-of-credit), all sorts of viable economic plans were simply vapourized.  And those margined purchases began quickly to blow up.

Most folks don't understand this.  They see a shift from 4% to 6% as no big deal.  This is curious.  The affect of interest rates on markets is still not well understood by academics.  Rises in credit cost have *extremely* significant behavioural effects, as they cause all sorts of economic plans to suddenly become non-economic.  Both businesses and consumers rush to pull the plug on projects which are now not likely to make money, once credit costs have jumped by 50%  - and the projects may not just be non-profitable, they may quickly become money-burning disasters, if allowed to continue.   So you have to act quickly.

But the flip-side is very, very different.  Dialing interest-rates down, from 6% to 4%, does not induce much behavioural response.  Neither businesses nor consumers rush out to buy a new factory, a new production-line, a new house or a new car, just because credit costs have come down.   So we can see that administered interest-rate changes have extremely non-linear reactive response effects in an economy.

And in the highly-margined, over-leveraged boom-time economy of the late 1920's, where real and significant massive technological change was driving real, actionable, employment-generating true growth in real output and also evident social prosperity - the jacking up of credit costs in such an abrupt and violent manner (who among us, does *NOT* react, if we are told prices are now UP 50% in LESS THAN ONE YEAR !?), ensured an economic collapse.

The 1930's Depression was fabricated by the actions of the American Federal Reserve, and other witless Government authorities.   It absolutely did *NOT* have to happen.

But it did.

And it is good to see the wisdom now being displayed by the USA Federal Reserve folks in our present world.   They actually have done a pretty damn good job, truth be told.   The inflation we are seeing now is moderate, and it is likely to become much worse, rather quickly.   But it is the cost we have to pay.  They just need to prevent it getting too hot, too quickly.  Once inflation gets entrenched in economic thinking, it takes *very* high interest rates to break the inflation-psychology problem - in the 1977 to 1981 period, it took 20%+ interest rates to get folks to save instead of spend, their surplus cash.  The Volker-prescription killed businesses left and right, and hammered the North American economy hard.  But it worked.  Extreme inflation was extinguished, and the 1980's boomed and the world was made a better place.

Everyone seems to have learned most of the lessons now - even the arrogant Chinese, who are much closer to squandering all their gains, than the poor unwise Communists realize.  We are actually cheering still for China, and it is hoped that Xi steps down and does not seek a third term.  We doubt this will happen, and we expect Xi will try to pull a "Putin", and change the procedures and process to entrench himself, and his cronies.  Our forecast for China is complex.   We doubt they understand just how dangerously close to complete disaster they are.  

A rigid, abusive, one-Party State is not able to self-correct or wisely respond to random events, and it risks destroying it's economic gains.   All change-events happen much quicker now.  China should move in exactly the opposite direction that it is going, and seek to copy the Taiwanese political model, while it is still possible for it to do so, without recourse to extreme violent change having to take place.    We doubt this will happen, and the resulting "Stalinization" of China, will degrade and then may terminate trading opportunities, and ensure that an eventual conflict scenario will become unavoidable.

But this time - Sparta is bloody well *not* going to win.    Sparta is going to be left flat, black and glowing.  What is disturbing for us all in the West, is that we suspect we will have to also endure and engineer some extreme change also, as we shift from a commercial, peace-time trade-based economic model - to something that may look a lot like England in 1941.   This will surprise a lot of foolish people.

The truly id