Ukraine **really** Needs Jets. (And rockets. And Carl Gustav's, and ammo. Lots and lots of ammo.)
We must Arm Ukraine with everything we have. And then more. Ukraine Forces must be given *ALL* modern weapon systems, and must repel the Russian Terrorists. Otherwise, the Terrorists win.
Putin and his gangsters are the World's greatest threat now.
[ Sept. 23, 2022 ] - Puke Point Reached Yet? - R U vomiting yet? Has the Market hit your "puke point" yet, where you barf, and sell your longs at market, and go to the bar for a double whiskey and water? Must
be getting pretty close, I suspect. The trading today is very ugly, and looks not so much like a blowoff, as a melt-down.
The American Leftists (who are running the show now, make no mistake about it - they cannot blame this on Trump!)
have decided they want a gut-wrenching economic downturn - another *crisis* - which can then open up a whole dog's breakfast of modern neo-fascist political opportunity for themselves. (This is our nightmare scenario.) Either they know what
they are doing, or they are just insanely stupid and collectively brain-dead. Choose between really-bad or really scary-awful.
This is the first, most directly fabricated economic downturn we have ever seen. It is simply not necessary, but
it seems to be desired by a curious collective of folks, who are generally not always on the same side. But this is a different world now. The Democrats seem to be deeply committed to a series of projects which will *ensure* an ugly, economic
downturn for the USA.
We think this is completely bonkers.
The correct course of action for the Federal Reserve would have been to move interest rates up gradually, and begin a clearly communicated runoff of their absurdly huge balance
sheet, which is stuffed full of what are essentially junk bonds - except they are not technically "junk", because they are being underwritten by the Federal USA authorities. But just beginning the process of not buying more of this puff-money paper,
and letting the USA money supply begin a controlled contraction, would have been a powerful and visible anti-inflation action. AND it would not have hammered the equity markets quite so hard. Why did they not take this course of action??
the Fed and other Washington wankers do not really understand, is that many Americans stash their wealth in the USA stock market - and actions to *deliberately* trigger a stock-market crash event, is going to have substantial economic effects in the real USA
production economy. The Fed is doing a "rug-pull' on Americans.
We are in agreement with a wise fellow who suggested a couple of days ago, that the probabilty now of a serious USA recession in 2023, is now 99.9%.
we think this is just bonkers. We agree with the forecast, but disagree with the wisdom and necessity of taking this action.
The Americans (and our own Government, to a lesser degree), are acting rather insane.
We've just cancelled
(again) projects that were to be set up for next year. Pandemic or post-pandemic - if the central authorities want to smash economic growth that we expected would be on the table for next year, we cannot, as small-holders and bit-players,
act against trend.
What is curious, is just how profoundly un-necessary this current madness, on the part of the central authorities, really is.
We are in agreement with the Goldman-Slacks (sic) boys in NYC, that the end point for the SP500
for 2022 should be revised into the goddamn basement. They took their forecast from 4300 to 3600, but probably, 3200 (or lower) is closer to where we will be.
But this is nuts. It's madness, that was not required, and it will not *reduce*
inflation, it will, almost certainly *add* to inflation. Any economic entity that has any sort of pricing power (think any sort of trade union or any group of producers, any professional association, shippers, suppliers of any necessary product, and
any and all provincial and municipal tax agencies - literally anyone or anygroup that can raise it's prices), will now do so, as each entity is looking into the business end of a double-barrelled economic downturn, and an ugly loss of real wealth, combined
with a violent upswing in operational costs - energy, rent, taxes, etc.
The solution to the current inflation problem, is lower energy, food, housing and tax costs - not idiotic rises in borrowing costs. In the 1970's this problem was discovered
and discussed - and yet nothing was done then, except foolish wage-and-price control attempts (crazy unsuccessful, both in Canada and USA) and then the Volker rate-rises to 20%+, which destroyed economic growth, and smashed many into poverty and bankruptcy.
The 1980's recovery was funded by borrowing. And the borrowing has been increasing since then.
Now, we are about to raise the costs of the borrowed *trillions*, and at the same time, hammer down the machine that re-cycles savings
into productive investment - the markets.
This is goof-stupid. It's nuts.
We are deeply concerned that trashing the equity markets - which is explicitly what the dumbfucks in Washington want to happen - will have the effect of *increasing*
economic demand for non-productive services, which will probably have to be supplied by government agencies and entities from the non-self-financing sectors. This will be met by more borrowing. And this will *add* to inflation pressure, and in
a manner that will be quite pathological. (ie. Economics that is Bad, Bad, Not Good. Clear?)
We've seen this stupid movie before, and I am surprised that I have to sit thru this same idiotic foolishness again. Fuck stupid Leftist
politicians seem unable to learn from their historical errors.
Maybe you think Trump was not a good fellow. But assess the economic performance under Trump, and compare it to the current shit-storm of idiotic economic insanity the USA is
now dealing with. By the end of next decade, one of the *biggest* economic costs the USA Federal Government will have, is their annual interest payments on their debt - it will be over 1.2 *trillion* US dollars EACH YEAR. This
will be just the INTERST PORTION of the debt! We suspect there is zero chance that the USA Government debt will ever by paid off in real money. (Total interest costs on USA Federal debt are expected to be roughly $399 billion for 2022. Even with
the CBO''s attractive assuptions about GDP growth, by 2032, total debt-service costs are projected to be $1.2 trillion. This number is not visible in the CBO paper, of course. Total actual USA Federal debt is also nowhere to be found. All tables
are reported as "percent of GDP", which masks, of course, what is really happening.)
The inflation is NECESSARY now, just to re-balance the USA economy. The USA has to inflate, in order to have tax-extracted puff-dollars to pay down the
debt that was taken out in real-dollars. Like it or not, this is how government borrowing works.
( If curious, here is a link to the .PDF from the Congressional Budget Office's, July 2022 paper, which has the forward projections for USA debt.
This paper looks serious, but it is drivel, because all the charts and projections are based on "percentage of expected GDP", which means all projections are meaningless speculations, and assume that GDP growth humps along nicely, interest rates stay moderate
(in the 4% nominal range), and bracket-creep keeps tax collections increasing. Even with all these heroic assumptions debt-to-GDP is projected to rise. To find out what the actual real debt numbers are, you have to go to other sites. But
here is the CBO's paper:
A better picture of what is really happening is provided by the note written
on this site:
So, we need to understand just how completely weird and unsustainable, the political-economic process is actually becoming.
If the USA whacks and hammers it's GDP growth, the entire economics of the place are at risk, to a much greater
degree than most folks probably realize. If you get fired from your job, and your income falls to zero, your mortgage payments remain. If you decide not to make those payments, then there will be consequences from that decision
- for someone, somewhere, right?
The USA Leftist government folks are already walking down this curious path of: "let's not pay our bills, eh!?" These actions will have consequences.
Jacking up interest rates now, in a mis-guided
attempt to "bring down inflation", actually risks provoking an extraordinary economic collapse in USA land.
This is unwise. But perhaps it will provoke **regime change** in USA, in November, and the stupid Washington fuckwits who are bent on destroying
the USA economy, can be removed from their catbird-seats of political power.
Change is needed. And one way or another - it not only *must* happen - it *will* happen, whatever your political beliefs are.
Sept. 22, 2022 ] - Inflation Will Inflate All Prices - Rarely make mkt calls - but this is just too blatantly obvious. This is not 1974. If the "inflation" phenomenon is as profound as it looks to be, then asset prices will not fall, they
will rise, along with *all* other prices. Jerome Powell is not a bad fellow - but he is a lawyer. Vladimir Putin trained as a lawyer. (And then he became a Stasi spy.. which is where the bad began.) I know a lot of people who are lawyers
- they are not bad people. But they are not creative thinkers, able to make critical intuititve mental leaps. They are not "leapers", they are plodders. They just aren't trained or even mentally disposed to jumping their "picture of the world"
from where it is now, to where we will be. It's curious.
Rates will have to move up to the 7 to 8 percent level - maybe 10 or 12 percent, to dial down the inflation we are going to have. It will be *months* (maybe years?) before that happens
here. We will see prices of everything - including assets - continue to march higher. Maybe a lot higher.
I can't see this not happening. Too much fiscal push, and too much serial destruction, if we stop the gravy train of government
money. No one wants "National Socialism", but we are tracking fast towards "Social Nationalism", and the result may not too much different.
If the inflation is not "demand driven", then raising up interest rates will just *add* to the costs
that everyone is facing, and so it will be **inflationary**. Your mortgage costs go up 50%, and housing is 50% of your household budget, then you are going to insist on a pay-raise of 25%, or you will have to eat less and be hungry.
rate-rises will program in more inflation, more quickly. Combined with the "fiscal push" from the Democrats and Liberals (in USA & Canada respectively), where the political people are pushing out money-wealth to ensure smoothly running social
policy, there is zero chance that inflation will moderate.
Will Governments reduce their spending, and bring their budgets back into some kind of possible (eventual) balance? Will taxes be raised? Unlikely. And if taxes are raised,
then that will be *inflationary* also, since tax-costs are just another *cost* that has to be absorbed by someone - and the someone facing the cost, will act to raise his/her wage or salary demands, so as to survive. Or move towards crashing hard down
The hardcore *inflation* will be seen as the least evil alternative.
Everything will go up in price - even stocks, if they pay reasonable dividends, and offer the prospect of the dividends also riding the rising inflationary train.
Toot, toot. "All aboard!" (Is this not the most likely scenario? It is not 1931, and it is not 1974.)
Just to be clear: We are not making a "Bull" case - but at the risk of sounding like an old stock-broker - we suspect
that financial and investment **survival** will be most effectively engineered by being invested in dividend-generating equity positions, which can be expected to ride-out the coming economic storms. And maybe even a hot little (or not so little)
Remember that scene in "Battleship Potemkin", where the Cossacks ride down the citizens of Odessa, and kill the mother with the baby carriage on the Odessa waterfront steps? How about a different ending, where the mom reaches in to the baby's
carriage, pulls out a Schmeisser, and carefully sweeps fire at the murdering Russian soldiers and they and all the Cossacks are cut down, and tumble to the ground. Call it the "American" ending.
A wise person writes his own script. He does
not rely on the plans and designs of others.
If you know about life and history, you know that "Life is Nicer with a Schmeisser", just like life is better with a "Kitty Full of Quality Equity."
[ Sept. 21, 2022 ] - Smash Palace? - maybe not. The news is so negative and so many worst-case scenarios are playing out, that it seems like a turn might be in order. Old James R. Keene, one of the greatest speculators ever,
is reported to have said that he "traded on intuition, like a woman", which is a curiously honest thing to say. Sometimes, you just have to play an idea, insane as it seems. We are long.
[ Sept. 20, 2022 ] - In for a Penny,
In for a Pound - I think this is becoming quite silly. Honestly, this is just nuts. Stimulate the crap out of the global economy by pumping up reserve currency money supply, and then when the inflation appears (as any Economist kid from
the Chicago School could have told you it would) deliberately crash the USA economy, with the fastest upward Federal bank-rate change since the New York Fed fiddled the discount rate back in 1929 - and caused the 1929 Great Market Crash).
do we need to do this??
Perhaps the policy people will be siezed by a sudden burst of sanity, and may just do nothing. Seriously, we are into real "Experimentum Periculosum" territory here.
The Federal Reserve of the USA, might
want to think about just doing nothing for a month or two, and avoid the prospect of "doing harm". Harm is bad. Aggregate demand is not out of control - just go look. Folks are having trouble paying their bills, and evidence shows they
are cutting back, and using their credit cards for living expenses. Grasp this, lads. If the inflation is *not* demand-driven, then dialing up interest-rates will *not* create a better situation. It will just create a *worse* situation, as
interest-linked costs are dialed up - causing folks to demand higher wages and salaries and fees, to make ends meet.
Damaging the USA economy will not reduce inflation driven by supply-chain shortages, and Putin's idiotic insane terror-war
in Ukraine. Higher interest rates, will not lower food costs, caused by product shortages.
At some point, sanity will take hold, and the virtue of a stability-seeking regime configuration, will become apparent. Just dialing down M2
via the run-off of the Fed's balance sheet, should have a pretty solid effect on inflation. Large rate-rises are probably not needed, and risk doing more harm than good.
If this view gains traction, this might be an inflection point in asset
prices. If you liked it at $92, you're gonna really like it at $72. At least, that is the logic.
As if this market has any logic...
[ Sept. 17, 2022 ] - Federal Failures to Learn From History - The current crop
of buffoons that dominate the global political stage, are perhaps unique in the historical context, as being the most serially unwise and profoundly stupid that folks alive today have had to endure. As Earth citizens, we have to go back to the early
20th century post-World-War-One world, to see leaders as unwise and just plain bad as the crop we have now. It's curious and rather sad, that we are back to having "Idiots in Power", like we did in the "bad old days."
It's different in the business
& financial world. The business and finance people of the early 20th century were almost all focused, honest, and very clever, despite what the Leftist media and profoundly Leftist academics in the University economics and political-science (fiction)
departments like to assert. They had to be, or they got crushed. It was evolution in action, like it always is in business. It is only in politics, where lies and deception can sustain a man (or woman!) for an entire lifetime career, while
they do such great damage (like in Argentina, for example.)
Things are often not as they seem. The best "Red Pill" of all time, is honest, focused historical research, which makes use of original documents (and ***not*** the secondary opinions
written by most academics in Economics and History departments and "reporters" who work at news-generator organs, such as what used to be called "newspapers". ) It is hard work to find the truth. It is often buried deep, and obscured by
fabricated opinion, and mountains of worthless drivel.
The "Great Depression" that the USA endured, during the 1930's, was *directly* caused by the harsh and extreme interest-rate increases that the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (the USA central
bank), began in April of 1928, when they raised interest rates (the Reserve "discount" rate) to 4%. (In the fall and winter of 1924-1925, the rate had been 3%) The New York Fed then continued in an aggressive campaign of rate rises, which reached
their peak in September and October of 1929, with the rate at 6%. This was an aggressive attempt to bring down the *inflation* in asset-prices that was of concern to USA Government economic managers. They felt the New York Stock
Market was "too highly priced", and wanted to bring down asset prices.
They succeeded. Oh my, did they succeed.
Problem was, they (the USA Federal Reserve - the Central Bank of the USA), crashed the US Stock Market. The high-rates,
the loans being called and the resulting implosion of financial *wealth* caused an economic implosion which smashed the USA economy, and caused extreme economic dislocation, mass-poverty, more than 25% unemployment, and a "banking crisis", in which over 3000
USA small banks became insolvent, and went out of business, causing hundreds of thousands of USA citizen investors to lose most of their life savings.
This is not just our opinion. This is what happened.
Ben Bernanke, the Chairman
of the Federal Reserve, and a clever Economist with a PhD who was the Chairman of the Federal Reserve from 2006 to 2014, has said the same thing, in a speech he gave, back in 2002, to the Hoover Institute, on the ocassion of Milton Freidman's 90th birthday.
Our research indicates that the USA Federal Reserve did not just "make mistakes", we are also of the opinion
that the actions of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York actually *caused* the stock-market crash of 1929, which triggered a recession, and then went further (in 1931) to exacerbate the downturn, and cause the Great Depression.
The clowns at the USA
Federal Reserve did the same damn thing, again, in 1931, as things were become slightly more stable. In August 1931, the New York Fed "discount rate" was 1.50%, which was reasonable, given the economic storm which had been unleashed. But
the Fed jacked up rates to 3.50%, by November of 1931. Clear? From September 1931 to November of 1931, the "discount rate" was jacked up from 1.50% to 3.50%. This was a MASSIVE increase in the cost of money, at a time when *EVERYONE* was
hurting, loans either had been or were being called in, and financial wealth was being vapourized by falling asset prices on the Stock Market.
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York basically blew up the USA economy.
Their action was a prime cause
of the Stock Market asset-value collapse, in which the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell from over 335 in 1929, to just over 42, in early 1932. That is more than an 85% fall in the price of USA high-quality industrial stocks. Many smaller companies simply
went out of business, and failed.
People have long forgotten just how awful this collapse was. This economic collapse, which was DRIVEN DELIBERATELY BY THE ACTIONS OF THE USA FEDERAL RESERVE economically destroyed an entire generation of
people, created global mass-poverty, and set the stage for the Second World War, which was only ended by the use of nuclear weapons that were used to destroy two Japanese cities.
So, when retired Larry Summers asserted in his Bloomberg interview, that
he knows of no example in History, where a rapid rate-rise by the USA central bank, had any "large costs", I have to admit that my head exploded, and the top of it blew a hole in the roof of my "Atomic Ranch"-style farmhouse. (At least, that is what
it felt like...)
A paper written about Federal Reserve history, documents Bernanke's comments:
Larry Summers either has brain problems, or is profoundly ignorant of history. Maybe both.
Go look at the data-series. Here it is:
The above series, is probably the most imporant historical time-series the St. Louis Fed has.
(Let me say a
special "thank-you" to the St. Louis Federal Reserve, for maintaining and publishing it's most excellent time-series data. The St. Louis Fed Data-Series have been very helpful. This data has educated us, and this education has enriched
us with valuable knowledge. We have translated this knowledge in to action plans, and it has help make our lives better. Thank-you for providing it. )
The Great Depression was an awful time, in both Canada and the USA. It
was not so bad in Canada, but it was harsh. My grandfather had just purchased the family farm, from his siblings, and had taken out a large mortgage, in 1929, to make the purchase (the family farm had been left to him, and a bunch of his brothers and
sisters.) When the Depression happened, and the economy blew up, and prices started falling (and falling, and falling...), he was unable to meet the mortgage payments from the (much smaller) revenues the farm produce could be sold for.
It was only because of sensible "forbearance rules" that were enacted, that he was able to keep the farm. (The "Forbearance Rules" required that if a mortgage-holder could make *any* monthly payment at all, then that would be sufficient to allow the
mortgage (and mortgagee!) to remain in place, and the unpaid amortization amount would be added to the principal.) The 1929 mortgage did not get paid off, until the 1960's, when my father had become a practicing Dentist, and had sufficient
funds to pay down the mortgage.
And what is most amusing, is that the farm and farmhouse still exist, but my father sold them for $10,000 back in the 1960's, to a neighbour. The farm (50 acres) and the farmhouse is probably
worth $500,000 or more today. Cheap real-estate, that can yield a revenue-stream, is a reasonable and effective hedge against the inflation that always seems to happen.
We bloody well need to learn from history.
inflation is mostly structural, and due to stupid actions by very bad political leaders. Interest rate increase will not fix this problem, and will *not* lower costs. The solution that should be applied, along with *moderate* interest rate increases,
is probably targeted removal of the psychotic mass-murdering crazy "Strong Leader" idiots like Vladimir Putin.
That man should be target for removal, by any means possible. And he should be removed.
Seriously, the UN should
pass a resolution requiring Moscow forces to exit ALL Ukraine territory within 12 days. If they fail to do so, then the UK, USA and NATO should begin a bombing campaign in Russia, starting with military instalations, and progressing rapidly to the power
generation and water supplies of major Russian cities.
But maybe, if we just act now, really quickly, and with real vigour, we might stand a damn good chance of catching the bastards with their pants down.
Maybe we should just pepper
these bad guys with all the good technology we have. Absolutely use every single item we have - even the secret stuff we cannot talk about. It's gonna have to happen at some point. So maybe now, is the right time to get this dirty job done.
[ Sept. 16, 2022 ] - More Stupid Comments from People Who Should Bloody Well Know Better - It just keeps getting more silly and absurd in USA land... Old former Treasury Secretary of the USA - Larry Summers - has just gone
on record as saying: "I am aware of no major example in which the central bank reacted with excessive speed to inflation and a large cost was paid."
Here is the Bloomberg article:
This Summers fellow actual said this. Is he really this ignorant and clueless?
What about the "Great Depression of the 1930's"? It was caused by a
stock-market crash, that was triggered by a 50% hike in interest rates, from 4% to 6%, made by the USA Federal Reserve, in 1929.
In 1929, the Federal Reserve raised a key benchmark rate from 4% to 6%, because it was concerned that about asset-price
inflation, in particular in the USA New York Stock Market.
Most of the investing public of USA was margined up to their eyebrows (and more, in some cases.) In the 1920's, you could borrow up to 90% of the value of your stock portfolio, and invest
that borrowed money into new stocks.
When interest rates were JACKED UP 50% by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, in the late summer of 1929, from 4% to 6%, this 50 percent increase in the cost of money, provoked MANY investment and brokerage
firms which had loaned out money, to call in their loans, as stock prices started falling. Since the loans were backed by stock, which started falling in price, the whole process became quite automatic, (and very fast) as margin calls were made.
Investors had to put up more money, as their stock portfolio collateral fell in value, or their stocks were sold - into a falling market. The process snowballed.
[ I decided to find the actual data numbers, and after a lot of searching the St.
Louis Federal Reserve data-series, I found it. It's clear. The US Federal Reserve Bank of New York raised the discount rate from 4% in April of 1928, to 6%, in October of 1929. Here is the data series:
This was a MASSIVE increase in the cost of borrowed money, and like today, this Federal Reserve rate was a benchmark that many financial firms used to set their loan rates. This jump in rates, to stop asset-inflation, was the trigger for the 1929
Stock Market crash. In a 2002 speech to the Hoover Institute, Ben Bernanke even admitted this.]
The Federal Reserve raising interest rates from 4% to 6% in 1929 was the direct triggering cause of the 1929 New York Stock Market crash. And the Stock
Market Crash in 1929, essentially caused the "Great Depression" of the 1930's, as stocks fell and fell in value, until many had lost 80 to 90% of their peak 1929 prices.
So Larry, what da ya think? Was the complete implosion of the US economy
in the 1930's a "large cost?"
Summers is speaking like some kind of brain-dead idiot who does not even know his own country's (and the World''s!) financial history!
What the hell is wrong with the Democrats in the USA? Are they
all insane or something?
They seem to regularly be saying the most absurd nonsense that is just plain not true. This comment by Larry Summers certainly qualifies. Can Summers really be this ignorant of his own nation's market history?
[ Sept. 15, 2022 ] - A Beautiful Analysis (That is Wrong...) - I am just seeing so much that is curious and strange - and wrong. This is unique and perhaps is an occupational hazard of both reading and aging. One has to
ask, quietly.. "WTF?"
I do this about ten times a day now. Often, the internal dialogue is more like: "WTF is this sh*t??". But not always. Here is a lovely example of some really fine analysis:
The above attempts to explain the rising yield (falling price) of US Treasury bonds. Author Michael Lebowitz has really done a nice paper, and offers an interesting explanation for why bond yields are not acting the way they have in the last 40 years
(ie. trending down, down and down more... and then more still, until in some cases, they went negative, right? Remember?)
Mr. Lebowitz is a smart guy, offering some fine, smart-guy advice. His paper is a lovely example of fine analysis (he
suggests falling US Treasury bond prices (rising yields) are driven by foreign selling, by nation-states seeking to stabilize their weakening currencies, and that this is temporary, and soon, yields will come back down. The nation-state central banks are using
the dollars they get from bond sales to buy their own currencies, to prevent them from weakening further. Clear?)
I think his analysis and paper are very well done. The only problem, is that he is wrong.
I am really pretty sure he
is wrong. It is simply that the 8% (and more) inflation rate, regardless of what sort of voodoo is being used to suggest we actually know what "inflation expectations" in the future really are, is not likely a temporary phenomenon, and market participants
People are not always stupid, all the time (to paraphrase old USA President Lincoln).
It is not necessary to search for complex, multi-factor, hidden-Imam or Central Banker currency crisis fear-driven strategies to explain rising yields
on US Treasury bonds (falling bond prices).
Bond yields simply **SUCK** at these current levels. In a world of 8% inflation, getting a small 4% return on a Government Bond IS A REALLY AWFUL INVESTMENT. It is just
a bad, bad investment - and you have to PAY UP HARD to get the OVERVALUED US dollars to buy the nasty thing, and then you get paper denominated in an overvalued currency, which yields only half the inflation rate! In a world where liquidity is drying
up, this is just a bad trade.
A rapidly rising US dollar is an ugly problem, yes, we grant that. It is bad for many investors in many nations - even for the USA, as it makes their export products too expensive to acquire, for many.
the 3 and 4 percent yields now on offer, are LESS THAN HALF what is needed, to make the investment even have a BREAK-EVEN real value. You buy a T-bond, and you are certain to suffer the negative real return of an awful investment.
is that simple.
The world is making a transition, from easy-money, free-cash-for-everyone crazy+crazy multiplied by more crazy => really, really crazy economics, to a world of more rational economics, which are going to be characterized by
one key word: "SCARCITY".
Economics was often called the "Science of Scarcity".
And scarcity - old-fashioned "dearth" - is returning to our World.
This is happening for a variety of reasons - most of which are sad and bad.
And very typical and common in the sad sweep of human history. The 4 Horsemen. They are riding again.
If you now - as a trader - recognize that bonds ***still do not work right*** at these yield levels, given the obvious and accelerating
inflation that is ***EVERYWHERE*** in ***EVERYTHING*** now, then a better trade, is maybe to sell your existing "financial asset" paper, and sit in CASH for a while, until the World re-normalizes to the one you expect to see.
And what will that world
look like? Take a hard look at 1974, and you can get a real good picture of what I fear we can expect. I am almost certain of this. We will see a "stagflation" world, of rising prices, falling consumption, rising unemployment
and scarcity. This process is just starting.
We are already seeing the runaway inflation. Houses cost $1 million for something nice. A can of ordinary paint at the hardware store is $85. For a can of paint!
A small red-dot Bushnell optic for a rifle, that I could buy a few years ago for $150 Canadian, is now closer to $300. Every thing seems to be up 10 to 20 percent or more, in the last couple of years. Many products are not even available,
unless acquired online and shipped in by Amazon. But even that disruptive process, has reached it's economic limits, it is starting to look like. Couriers are facing 50% increases in fuel prices. Limits are appearing everywhere.
Cost are rising first, then product prices.
Years ago, we dumped the bond portfolio (that 60% equities and 40% bonds is toxic nonsense, used by salesmen to sell financial paper - please learn this people!), and we bought northern real-estate,
and have been beavering away on developing it. It promises to be a 10-bagger, if we can move it along a bit further, and get a structure built. A good investment *should* be a 10-bagger, (a gain of ten times initial costs), since it has to be
that good, to make up for the ones that go to hell and die, right? Every VC (venture capitalist) know this truth. You can learn it too, if you read a bit. You don't have to be Mr. Son of Softbank, and being Elon Musk is also difficult.
But even if you cannot be Elon Musk (and spend more time being "Elon Muck"...), you still are not required to be explicitly stupid, right?
Bonds are just a bad investment. You get all the interest rate and return-OF-your-capital risk, plus
the currency risk, and precious little benefit - a small, stinky, polluted little "Butler Creek" dribble of interest payments (from Bill Gross's book), and maybe, maybe if you are very lucky, you might even get your money back.
"Fuck that Shit.",
as we say so often, here in Canada.
Bond yields are RISING, because BONDS HAVE TO YIELD AT LEAST THE INFLATION RATE, TO BE VIABLE, RATIONAL INVESTMENTS, unless you are in Superman's crazy BIZZARO WORLD, where you can make money because yields are being
driven down by financial engineering, liquidity floods, central-bank panic buying, private bank's capital reserve requirements, government-funding-frauds and a whole bunch of other curious schemes.
Please know this: Bond yields at 4% are NOT ENOUGH
if you are getting OFFICIAL inflation prints of more than 8%! (We believe true inflation is much higher than the official numbers report, since government statisticians design-in "hedonic" adjustments to products, such as cars and other big-ticket
items, so as to deliberately understate inflation.)
In the 1960's bonds were called: "Financial Certificates of Confiscation".
Does no one anywhere read their economic history anymore?
Government bonds have to yield at LEAST 6% to
make any sense in this current environment, unless we are certain to make a rapid jump back to a deflationary environment. But deflation is not going to happen, in a world of rising scarcity. That is why bond prices are STILL FALLING. We
are only roughly HALF-WAY THROUGH this painful reset event that is now playing out.
This is why we retain our long postions in our bank stocks.
We think the banks will do just fine, in a world of 6% to 8% yields. Banks make their profit
on fees and the spread between their assets (their loans) and their liabilities (their deposits). Your loans will cost you 11% to 15% (like your VISA card today costs you 22% on a CASH ADVANCE). And your deposits will still earn close
to nothing. Expect that. The real-world economy does just fine with 20% or more interest rates. Money is scarce for poor-people with bad credit scores, and it is priced accordingly. It is also priced expensive for stupid people
who don't pay back their loans on time, and on schedule.
So, given both history and modern current economic reality, we are pretty sure the world will be able to accommodate 10%+ interest rates.
The only place this new reality is not fully recognized,
is in the distorted "Bond Market", which has become to be dominated by a bogus trans-national government scheme, designed to enrich the already rich, and allow corrupt and dishonest government scammers to run their out of control tax-and-spend games.
(Check out the Trudeau Liberal's latest unwise economic plans, if you doubt our assertion.)
TL;DR - Bond yields are going up, because they are still TOO LOW.
Sure, I sound like a hair-brained conspiracy theorist, I know. What
is amusing as hell, is that this really is the reality we are facing. In a world of new scarcity, which also means a scarcity of real wealth, we will have to see either a runaway inflation (if the pandemic money-printing is continued), or a harsh, painful
dial-back in consumption, production and economic activity, if rates-of-return on capital are allowed to rise to sane levels that rationally reward investors for investing and savers for saving.
Bond yields are RISING (which means bond
prices are FALLING) because bond prices are still too high, and need to be re-priced down to be economically ratonal investments, in this "new era" of collapsing levels of liquidity. The money-supply of the global reserve currency (the US dollar) is
being made to shrink. This action will act to reduce prices of all financial assets.
The economy can use financial assets to create synthetic "wealth", like a Central Bank can create M1 and M2 money supply. But the markets can also use financial
assets to remove this same synthetic "wealth". The effect typically is to reduce economic activity. The key problem here, is that this financial wealth-creation, and it's economic effects is not linear, and neither is the inverse, the
The simulation-response to money-supply increase, and financial-wealth-creation, is generally gradual. Business people and consumers dial up their production and consumption slowly, whereas when money-supply
is reduced, and/or financial wealth is erased, production & consumption can experience rapid response-actions, as existing projects, production-systems and consumption plans are "cut-back" or "axed". Nothing is linear here. Small changes can
have big effects, and tripwires and threshold triggering pivotal-points are everywhere.
Investment action still does not work right yet, and lifting administered interest rates will not bring forth new energy supplies, which like 1973, is the trigger
mechanism for the current inflation. Energy prices are spiking, pretty much everywhere. We all maybe have the Dancing Sickness, except now, we are dancing in a minefield.
And interest-rate increases will not resolve supply-chain
disruptions, or reduce the level of global conflicts, and restore lost production. All that will happen, is that asset-prices will fall, and that will induce wealth-destruction, and an economic downturn. Long term mortgage rates have doubled
in the USA (3 percent to 6% in the last year), and tripled in Canada, in some cases. This will hammer real-estate values and house prices. We know this will happen, because it is already happening. Easy prediction, yes?
So, we expect
we are only maybe halfway thru this post-pandemic reset that is occuring. Some pundits and billionaire investors are calling for an S&P-500 of around 3000, and yields to be much higher. But this can be avoided.
The various Central Bankers
should let the markets do some of the work of managing this reset.
What really matters, is the long-term interest rates, and those are set by the market-place, not by a bunch of guys in Washington or Ottawa. Yields will rise, as bond prices need
to come down, in order to make economic sense. The Central Bankers should recall what the doctors are taught: "First, do no harm." That means pause a bit, and monitor just how fast the economy is adjusting to the withdrawal
of the extreme money-supply expansion. Just reducing the bond-purchases might dial things back enough, to reduce inflation pressures.
EIther way, we are in for some rising yields, no way around it, we suspect. And we do not expect
bond prices to rise, for quite a while. Maybe not in our lifetimes. The current inversion in the yield curve (with short rates 20 or 30 basis points above long rates in the USA) is also indicating that money is now tight, and can be
expected to get tighter, over the next 6 to 12 months. If this does NOT happen, the alternative may well be 20% (or more) yearly inflation rates.
[ Sept. 14, 2022 ] - The Necessity of Victory - As I have admitted earlier,
I am no longer objective about the invasion of Ukraine by Russia. I want Russia to get defeated, absolutely and completely. This must happen, even if extreme measures are required. We - the World - must do what it takes.
And in the link below, one can see how the military equipment donated by Western Allies, has been and is being used by the Ukrainian military, to achieve the necessary objective, and defend their own homeland:
Like it or not, the World is at war with the Putinistas of the Russian Federation. We are not at war with the Russian people. Just the idiots who support Putin, and this insane campaign to destroy the freedom of the European citizens of Ukraine.
The inflation print in the USA, at over 8%, with no sign of letting up, will force the USA Federal Reserve down a path that leads to the inversion of all they have done for the last several years. Rates are being re-normalized
too quickly, and may produce an ugly, non-linear reactive response. Our AI models are negative, but we have elected to remain in the market, and continue to hold our long positions, as the dividend streams do not appear to be at risk.
even be a time for leverage, curiously. If you view the market reaction as overdone, there is a case to be made, for adding to positions once prices reach dividend-yield levels that represent investments that are attractive in a moderate to high
But this is a dangerous strategy - rather like that game of Russian Roulette, as played in that film "The Deer Hunter". I screened the 1962 MGM version of "Damion & Pythias" last nite. It was
a remarkably good film. The Second World War made America strong - but it was strength gained with wisdom learned, which is rare in this World. But you can see it in the wild range of the films that they produced, especially as the war memory
receded into history, and became part of the culture.
We must try to continue to look *outward*, and not turn inward, and fight with our own people. The later course ensures tragic error and self-destruction. This is happening
now, in Russia.
The whole problem with games like "Russian Roulette", is that the outcome-cost exceeds all possible benefits, if the game is played long enough.
Nature Herself offers so many much-better-games that can be played, and
for much greater gain. Stupid, lethal games that end in certain disaster, should be avoided.
Is this not obvious? Of course, the case for peace is best made after victory has been achieved, and this is undeniable.
But it is the son of the tyrant of Syracuse, who convinces his father to spare both Damion *and* Pythias, after Pythias has fought his way into the city, to offer himself for execution, in place of Damion. Perhaps I am slightly unique, in knowing the
background about the Cult of Pythagoras, which forms the key to the film's subtext plotline... Our Western cultural world, came directly from this 4th century BC Greek world that is quite accurately depicted in the MGM film.
film, and in the ancient story, the tyrant leader Dionysus of Syracuse relents, and frees both Damion and Pythias not only because his son requests this - but also because he wisely recognizes that he has an insufficient number of armed soldiers to put down
a revolt against himself by his citizens. Wisdom is forced - not just by honour, friendship and the heroic willingness to accept self-sacrifice that Pythias demonstrates, but also by the power that these heroic ideals have on the imagination and
minds of the citizens of Syracuse. The whole film is a clever explanation of how the power of an Idea, can change and reshape the World.
This is why these ancient stories were told, and continue to be told, despite routine attempts to corrupt
and degrade the ideals that the stories represent.
The ideas are real, and they have Power. The ideas have greater power, than the tyrants have, and eventually, even the cruel tyrants must learn this trurth.
This is the source - the fountainhead - of wisdom.
[ Sept. 13, 2022 ] - The Cult of Strength is the Cause of Failure - When a people become hooked on the bogus "Cult of Strength", the probability of system failure rises rapidly.
Every take-off carries some risk. Sharp turns near the ground are to be avoided, for many various reasons. The Russian pilot's name was "Daniil". He died in this crash, which is thought to have occured in occupied Crimea,
on Sept. 11th, two days ago. The A/C is an Su-25, the Russian version of the "Warhog", a type used for close-air-support and killing tanks and armored-vehicles.
In ancient times, War was described as the time when fathers bury their sons. But nowadays, one may not even get a chance to do that - not even little bits or pieces are likely to be left after this kind of crash.
Putin's war against Ukraine
is the stupidest, most needlessly foolish & destructive action that a political leader has ever taken in modern times. At least it looks this way to me. It is killing entire cities of peaceful Ukrainians, causing the deaths of tens of thousands
of Russian young men, doing terrible damage to Russia and it's economy, harming all of Europe, and damaging the stability and freedom of the World.
The man is a psychopath - or he is emulating one for his own political and personal
gain. He survives only because of Russia's love of the tragic "Cult of Strength", that has done such great damage to Russia and it's people, throughout it's history.
It is a madness. There is no benefit here for any civilized
person, anywhere. Only a violence-addicted thief or criminal bandit could derive any gain from this insane action. What is particularly awful, is the carefully co-ordinated killing of Russian energy company executives (and their
families, in some cases) that Putin's FSB has inititated. So far, his people appear to have murdered 8 different executives. (Our source for this is the BBC, and other International press reports.)
Regardless of your own political beliefs
- all can agree that this madness that is dominating the Russian Federation, must be ended, by any means possible.
What is curious, is to see just how worthless and ineffective are our trans-national organizations (like the United Nations, for example),
that were supposed to be able to prevent this kind of Nation-State to Nation-State exercise in mass-murder and destructive conflict.
It shows just how little humans have progressed since ancient times.
[ Sept. 12, 2022 ] - Jurassic
Park - We have two large groups of turkeys that hang around the farm. Each is dominated by a large male. They keep seperate, and apparently have "eagle eyes", dashing for the forest or hedgerows, if they see anything that disturbs
them (like our dog). But since we don't shoot them, they have decided this is safe territory, and forage for food here regularly. In the morning, when the weather is nice, and the sun comes up and illuminates these very large birds, as they
graze for worms, seed and bugs in the alfalfa crop, the farmstead looks like Jurassic Park. It is a strange sight. It's not quite as dramatic as when I see the large black bears up at the "Northern Office", but it is still pretty impressive.
Nature is rather amazing.
Charest got 16% of the Conservative Party vote, and Polievre got 68%. I tried to explain the obvious necessity of this to an associate. This was the right decision. Charest may be a "nice fellow",
but I suspect we are entering a time of danger, conflict and outright warfare. There is just so much astonishingly stupid actions being carried out by so many Leftist nutjobs in positions of power and authority, that we are ripe for a real "revolution",
in the very classical meaning of that word. We need a man like Polievre.
We need a wholesale purge in Ottawa, where we sweep the "catbird seats" clean, and begin the process of healing a really angry nation.
drive around Ontario, I see *many* cars and pickup trucks sporting small (or not so small) Canadian flags - the symbol now, of the "Truckers Protest" that was ended by Justin Trudeau's invoking of "Martial Law" and his governments arrest of the organizers,
and the government sanctioned theft of their funds. That action was unnecessary and grotesque.
And now the awful mass-murder at a Saskachewan Indian Reserve, shows clearly and tragically the utter idiotic insanity of the Trudeau approach
to creating "Indigenous Homelands" in Canada - an ugly, foolish and profoundly stupid approach that is directly responsible for Indian crime being so common and so serious. When the Indian brothers began their stabbing spree, the "first responder"
was not an RCMP policeman, but was some dispute-resolution woman - and of course, she was killed by the out-of-control Indian criminals.
Out-of-control, indigenous-person murderers are part of Canada's history - just as is the RCMP who would track these
bad persons down and dispatch them. The history of Canada is violent, and has been sanitized by every generation, so that little truth remains visible today. You can find the truth of the fight for Canada, in old books,
Our history was really violent. And the most intense and over-the-top violence came from the indigenous peoples - the Indians. They were *extremely* violent, and routinely carried out warfare on deliberately genocidal basis.
When I purchased my farm, I checked which Indian tribe had lived on the land - and it was land that was held by the "Neutrals" - who were a distinct national entity, who chose to remain independent from the Iroquois and Huron wars that characterized Ontario
from the 1500s to the 1700s. And what happened to the "Neutrals"? They were systematically exterminated by both the Hurons and the Iroquois, who were angry that they refused to pick a side.
Indian Reserves are very bad idea, as the
land is held in common. This is a perfect algorithm for tribal conflict, and internal dispute, and outright warfare. It also ensures poverty.
If you don't own your own property, then you do not do any maintenance on it. I spent
the last few days, repairing a dock. It is insanely difficult work, literally back-breaking effort required to lift and position beams and rocks, while standing in water. There is no way any sane human would work to improve and develop
property he does not own, if hecannot enjoy the the legal title to it, and extract benefits therefrom.
The Indian Reserve land should be deeded-out on a fee-simple basis to all "tribe members", and all "Indian Treaties" should be ended.
Brazil did this - there are whole cities in Brazil where all birth-records were destroyed, so that it is not provable whose families were from a slave, and who were from a European "nobleman". This is the correct model. Racist views can not
be actionable, if all people are designated equal in the eyes of the law.
Canada needs to begin moving in this direction. We cannot support a race-based system of land tenure, and it is time it was ended.
There should be no "special-status"
All our citizens, should have exactly the same equal rights and privilages under Canadian Law. The "Indian Reserve" system, and the newer insanity of "Indigenous People's Homelands" which have semi-sovreign status,
must be ended. This current insanity that Justin Trudeau supports (and has championed, with tragic intensity), is profoundly racist, unwise, economically foolish, and just plain a really very bad idea. It will have
to be ended, and we should begin this process now.
As things stand now, Canada is a crazy, absurdist "Jurassic Park", with an entire sub-class of "special-status" tribal folks who are not allowed to own their own property.
madness, and it must end.
[ Sept. 8, 2022 ] - Locked to a Dwarf - We follow certain astronomical developements for reasons which are too involved to describe here. This is an interesting paper, which describes two possible, rockly
Earth-like planets, which orbit a nearby (32 parsecs, or roughly 104.3 light-years away) red-dwarf star.
planets are thought to be tidally locked, so that their rotation is gravitationally synchronized with their orbital periods, so that the same hemisphere of the planet faces the cool star. (Cool for a star, which is still damn hot). The idea
is that each planet is *maybe* in the HZ (Habitial Zone), close enough so that water is liquid, but not too close so that all the water is boiled away, along with maybe most of the atmosphere - the Goldilocks region - not too cold, not too hot. Of course,
complex climate-models have to be assumed, even to make these estimates - all of which are conjecture. Probabilty estimates have to be used to link the photometric data to the planetary characteristics, etc. But the photo-data
numbers and the analysis looks not too bad. What they found looks real.
I dislike papers with hundreds of authors, and are funded by a bunch of "Big Science" government moneybaggers, since they are usually impossible to read. But this
one (funded by NASA and European Agency folks), and with a list of authors that looks like a University telephone book, is not too bad. They used the right software, and the analytic leaps and wild assumptions are reasonable. Exoplanet
research is hilarious - a perfect example of how big datasets with very tiny numeric variations can be mined to discover quite surprising results. But it proves there are *many* star+planets orbital systems out in space, which resemble the one
around our Sun. And this fact alone is very useful information.
As for our market efforts - we are getting hammered badly, and remain long and fully invested. The AI models have all swung down, and if we were
in a less extreme set of scenarios, we would exit and go to the sidelines. But the current scenario is madness. We are seeing a surprising and curious set of serial phenomenon that we have to call simply "madness".
the models are wrong, and we simply doubt that the North American and European nation-states will seek to engineer a catastrophic economic collapse. The risks we see related to inflation remain. Stocks are not always a hedge against
inflation, but they can and should be, so we suspect they will be over the next 12 to 18 months.
What we are seeing, is market-driven reactive responses, based on sophisticated algorithmic models (which are not that different from the market dynamics
of the late 1800's & early 1900's, when you had big technical/economic change + lots of very smart, risk-taking speculators in New York, all playing dangerous games.) You end up with lots of wild volitile action, and crazy swings - a lot like
the recent Bed, Bath and Beyond "Fractured Fairy Tale". (The dead CFO on a New York sidewalk is a painful and dramatic touch, certainly. But it is also very much in keeping with history.)
I think we can survive this current storm.
Our holdings offer a generous dividend-stream, and this seems to be secure. But like others, we are down nearly 20% this year, which is ugly and bad. But if we bail now, we not only lock in the loss, but also lose all protection against runaway
inflation. And this has happened to us, several times before. Holding on to the dividend-stream generator-process, has proved to be a successful market-survival strategy. It pays the bills.
What we have learned also, is that our earlier
"high-frequency" approach, was probably better. But it can also cause one to miss a major move, and that can be a big problem - one needs the gains, to balance the costs of the down-swings.
Yes, we are all bound for the graveyard (and that is
best-case scenario, remember!), but we are not going there just yet, so we hope our political gamesters in their power-positions do not seek to destroy the Western World prosperity just yet, also.
We should not have Governments that do unwise and unfair,
"Windfall taxes" on special situation companies that have been recently successful - eg. banks during the real-estate boom, and oil-and-gas companies during the insane Russian "war" - are completely wrong and illegitimate economic exercises.
Such silly action, to punish the successful, during their rare times of success, really should be avoided. The gains made during the good times, are needed to allow passage through the storms of the bad times.
It is desperately important - critical
really - that we (the Western World) get a new crop of political "leaders", in most nations, very soon. We wish Liz Truss good luck in the UK. I remember a story about a cake, baked for the English military garrison in Cairo, as the German
Army was advancing across the North African desert, in WW-II. The cake had a mis-translation of "God Bless the English Army" written on it, by the Egyptian cook. The cake was presented to the Officer's Mess with the phrase: "God Help the
English Army" which history suggests He actually did. Perhaps we can all pray in a similar manner, for newly minted UK Prime Minister Truss.
[ Sept. 7, 2022 ] - The World Must Stop Being Completely Silly - The world is being
completely silly. There are so many interesting opportunities. Prices for good things, are becoming lower, and with the number of really stupid people in charge, in just about every location and every nation, the opportunities for folks who are
not completely silly and behaving in an unwise manner, has grown significantly.
Putin - whom we used to like and respect - has shown himself to be an unwise monster. Regardless of one's political views here, we all agree that Russia must lose
it's "war", and lose it bady. The invasion of Ukraine was illegal, sadistically evil, stupid, and will do more damage to Russia, than most folks realize. The Russians around Putin now know this. Putin is not a Statesman - he is
just another in a long line of brutal and cruel gangsters, on par with Pablo Escobar, Al Capone and Bugsy Siegel. The man will end his days in prison, if sanity and justice can prevail, or in a bunker, or in a hospital. Maybe he will be like
Stalin, and get a stroke, and be left alone for 24 hours to ensure he is offline forever. On the day of his death, millions of people around the world will rejoice.
What a sad legacy, for what could have been a fine and good person.
Russia must figure out how to escape from the tyranny he has created, and dismantle the new "Gulag State" he is constructing. They must recognize the profound fraud of the "strongman". Human strength and success comes from the brain, not
from the fist. The nation of folks who put the first man in space, and built the first orbiting satellite, should understand this, better than any group of people.
What is good, is that Europe is coming to it's senses. This crisis
has shown Europeans that they need to stop wasting resources on foolish, Leftist-fraud economics, and build more nuclear power plants, and develop and deploy critical technology. They need to manage their security better, and focus their efforts towards
weapons production. Europe should become more like America - rather than America becoming more like Europe.
As a retired NATO General said, so wisely: "Time to put on your big-boy pants..." and ensure that you are all ready to
fight to protect and maintain the Western Cultural values that define what we all accept and require as civilized behaviour.
We can all have fine and effective economic growth, in a safe, sane, low-inflation environment, and have energy
and national security also - but we have to avoid being so fucking stupid. The "Lie of the Left" needs to be understood for what it is - and rejected.
Wind-turbines are useless on calm-wind days, and solar-energy is maybe OK to charge a
small car-battery, or keep a radio working - but it cannot run industry. Europeans need to stop being fucking stupid - they should be *building* new nuclear power plants, not shutting them down.
This is a sImple, obvious, and necessary
And money must be diverted from idiotic "sit on your fat ass and get free money" social programs, and used to fund weapons manufacturing. Life is what it is. People are born, they live, and then they just die.
It might be time to bring old-fashioned *eugenics* back into vogue. There is nothing wrong with using science to help raise the quality and sanity level of a national population. This does not automatically lead to "death camps" and evil
atrocity, like the Leftist fraudsters assert.
And it's necessary to recognize the outright fraud of "Climate Change". Even if global temperatures are rising (which we see no provable evidence of at all), these are most likely
due to increases in solar output, and represent an opportunity for northern locations. The various attempts to degrade economic growth, and restrict economic opportunity and national economic development, in the name of bogus "Climate Change" goals,
must be completely ended. The climate here will change, and change radically, but over a *very long time scale*. Our history shows half of North America was covered by glaciers, only 25,000 years ago. We have our farm, on a series of
eskers, drumlins and terminal moraines, which were the direct result of glacial activity. To suggest that we can 'gain-ride" (dynamically alter) the large-scale climate patterns of our planet, is absurd and arrogant foolishness - and it wastes and diverts
resources. We need to put this "Climate Change" nonsense to bed, and focus on environmental transformation, not environmental "head-in-the-sand" economic restrictions driven by fictional pseudo-science political goals.
We need aggressive pro-development,
transformative economic goals and objectives, which operate on enhancing the supply-side, not foolish and unwise restrictive policies that attempt to smother and degrade economic demand.
This must be done. And we must create a new political environment,
where these kinds of transformative policies become possible.
We *must* make these changes happen, and eject the Leftist fraudsters from political power.
[ Sept. 6, 2022 ] - Bad People Doing Bad Things - This seems to characterize
so many groups now - the criminal sector, the international situation, the various "indigenous communities" out West, the financial agents in many public corporations, the regulators and social-planners just about everywhere, the Chinese, the Russians, and
the politicians in our Federal Government. It is unclear just how to address the astonishing breakdown in sanity that seems to be underway just about everywhere. Is this the result of the Covid-19 Lockdowns? Or is there
more going on? We think there has to be more behind all this. We are seeing an astonishing serial lack-of-wisdom in so many diverse areas, that it is a tad unbelievable.
But history has always suggested that "truth is stranger than fiction"
- and more annoying also, it seems.
[ Sept. 2, 2022 ] - It's Astounding, Time is Fleeting, Madness Takes Control - All true. We are to do the "Time Warp" again? Serial madness, and cereal shortage?
We study the events, and we are surprised at the lack of wisdom everywhere.
But it does not have to be this way.
Poor China is blowing up it's "property" sector, except it really does not actually even have a "property" sector. All
"property" in China is owned by the Communist State. A supposed "property owner" in China only has a 99-year lease-hold on his land or home or apartment. This simple little legal fact, makes all the difference in the world. "Owning
property" is a bogus concept in China mainland.
The current China "property" market is bullshit.
And this little fact, is key to the current shitstorm that the Chinese "property" market is now facing.
Until a new Government
is able to take charge in China, and correctly deed out all the "leased land and leased houses" to their actual tenants, there will be further problems. And things will get worse.
The solution to the current property mess in China is simple: Create proper "fee-simple" correct Roman-style true land-holding. These characteristics must be real, and be complete with full legal protection and proper, clear means of hypothecation
(ie. you can pledge land as collateral for a loan of money). The Chinese understand this concept well, and it was the foundation of their economy for thousands of years, just as it has been the foundation of the Western World's economy, for a similar
period of time.
This allows the State to tax property properly, and also encourages citizens to keep and maintain their property holdings - through thick and thin times, as a key source of familial, trans-generational wealth. In this
environment, all good people will pay their mortgages, protect their homes, and fight to save their cities, at all costs. Legally sanctioned, direct, ownership-based land-tenure is the starting point for all social cooperation and economic
interaction in a civilized country. This is the key basis for human social organization. "Fences make good neighbours", as even our Poets have wisely said.
If you stop paying your mortgage, then you lose your property, and the bank
auctions it off to someone who can and will pay the taxes and the mortgages on the holdings. So the family, wisely, does all it can, to protect it's property holdings. Property holdings are tangible and actionable base-line stores of familial
wealth and opportunity. A State entity that messes with this economic and social model, will fail. This is proven by History.
This model works well. It is the very foundational basis for civilization.
If the Chinese
Governments could simply wake up to sanity and reality, and completely throw out the unwise, foolish, and socially awful lies of "Communism", they could engineer an immediate corrective solution to their current "property depression" crisis that is taking
You cannot "bullshit" your way to prosperity and wealth. It has to be real - and this applies not just to private individuals, but also to State agents and Governments. Every person and every company and every nation, eventually
learns this simple truth.
[ Sept. 1, 2022 ] - Putin Suspected of Ordering Murder of Lukoil Chairman - The 67-year old executive, Ravil Maganov, Chairman of Lukoil, one of the world's largest Oil and Energy firms, has died after another
Putin "defenestration". This ugly trick of throwing political opponents out of high building windows, has a long tradition in the FSB (KGB). It happens with such tragic regularity, that one wonders how and why the Russian people
tolerate gangsters running the governments of their homeland.
Our source here is the BBC. And European history...
The death of Ravil Maganov is just one more good
man gone, erased by Putin's sadists and killers who have taken control of Moscow and Russia. Putin's body-count is growing daily.
This is insane. Russia was doing well, Ukraine was doing well, and Europe was flowing wealth into Russia, as
Russian companies exported Russian oil and gas to the world, at a good profit, which generated generous tax revenue for the Russian State, and the Russian people. Both Ukraine and Russia were developing, and becoming prosperous.
murderer, Vladimir Putin, put an end to the fine peaceful life of both nations, and has turned Russia into a bleeding Hell-State, run by stone-evil killers, and murderous gangsters.
The recent string of murders of Russian business executives is significant.
There are *many* other very suspicious deaths, of key people - and their families.
This is insanity on par with Hitler, in his last days in the Berlin Bunker. Putin is a dangerous and unwell creature. He is actively destroying Russia, and the peace of the World.
This is a very big problem.
to be fixed. And it should be fixed by the Russians themselves.
And, sadly, Ex-president Gorbachev has died. He was 91. Putin will not attend his funeral. Boris Yeltsin and Mikail Gorbachev transformed the ugly and brutal
Soviet Union, into a modern Russian State. They were great men, and did great deeds. Even the UK press agrees with this.
[Aug. 31, 2022 ] - MAATADoSA - Ok, so if MAGA hats are "semi-fascist" (according to Biden!) and we are not supposed to try to "Make America Great Again", then perhaps the Democrats might sport "MAATADoSA"
hats? What is "MAATADoSA" you ask?... "Make America Able To Actually Do Something Again". Poor America seems unable to actually do anything much at all, anymore.
It's Students are not able (or
willing) to pay the debts they incurr for their education and the NASA folks cannot seem to launch a rocket, even if the whole project is FIVE YEARS behind schedule!
Now, since NASA is using Boeing Space Launch Systems, which if they
use the same software that the Boeing aircraft use, this might actually be a good thing, since no one wants rockets that automatically fly into the ground with the astronauts on board, like the 737-Max-8 Boeing aircraft have shown the habit of doing.
So maybe the Artemis launch failure had to happen.
But so many things are really falling apart. America not only failed horribly in Afghanistan, it has also successfully turned itself from a petroleum-products exporting nation, of big cars and
prosperous people, into a petrol-poor nation of high fuel and electricity prices, and dependency on foreign oil supplies. Again. Just like under Jimmy Carter. Wow.
This is an astonishing transition. The Democrats
are actually arguing that Making America Great, is "semi-fascist". And they seem to be programming failure into all their actions.
And the mainstream media just lies. It is obvious and evident. Here is comment by someone who
has documented this: (from our "Economics 2021-2022" section:
These Democrats added *over TEN trillions* of printed (digital, really) dollars to
the USA money supply, and then argued it would cause only "transitory" inflation. We all said (as both Economists, and Historians) "Oh, for Fuck Sakes!!", but like our explanations on Covid-19 lab-leak "gain-of-function" Chinese virus-engineering
research origins (funded by the USA!), we (and by that I mean all of the sane and rational people in the world, basically), were shut down by the vicious-idiot criminal a$$holes in the Left-supporting mainstream media, that make it their business to grease
the lie-machinery that supports the Great Fraud of the Left that we are all now being hammered with.
And we think this argument disqualifies "Progressive" (which means Liar-Leftist) Democrats from being in any sort of government position,
The modern "Left" is a political entity that encourages and encompasses failure, fraud, and low-quality bad fucking. Really.
The Democrats, and their ugly little evil-hobbit cousins, the "Liberals" in Canada,
have become a extremely sick and sad joke.
"Greatness", prosperity, independence, and freedom, (as well as good-old-fashioned family-style fucking by mom and dad) - these used to be effective and actionable American values. And the whole social
model worked fine and good. America literally saved the World.
The modern model of America is A COMPLETE STRANGE FAILURE on every single level, and it is just face-palming crazy. America's borders have
been thrown open to Latin American criminal gangs and hordes of desperate refugees, and the Democrat solution to this - seriously - was to "DEFUND THE POLICE".
How can anyone, with an IQ over 80, even consider the sick, sad, psychosis of
actually voting for a Leftist Democrat?
Trump is not a great choice. We like Ron DeSantis of Florida. But hells-bells, and Christ-with-smells (the old moniker of the Cato-church here), we beg America to try to fix itself, and course-correct.
And fuck, yeah, we beg the same thing from our population of stoned, drunk, dope-crazed nutjobs who reflex-vote "Lying Liberal", because they gave up on thinking and reading and learning and believing that they could make any real difference by voting.
Yeah, bit of a rant today. We are watching everything fall apart, not just asset-values. Since China has threatened to destroy the Starlink satellite array, then it looks like some action will have to be taken. We will
have to neutralize China. Might have to be the private sector that does the job... Since we have Fidel Castro's bastard "love-child" in control, who loves the Communists, we have - as Houston would say - a problem.
What we need in the good
old USA, is a hard-arsed angry leader, who will act with clarity, focus, and strength-of-purpose. When the Chinese attack Taiwan, we need Mr. President of USA, to just automatically rain an entire cloudburst of fusion devices down on all Chinese military
The monkey-f*ckers at the UN can then have a talkfest about that.
The Ukraine horror-show created by Russian sadists and psychopaths working for Putin, have shown the United Nations is a massive failure - a worthless, tragic
fool's joke. It will be up to the USA (and maybe the UK, us here, East Europe and Germany?) to save the world. We cannot even count on the French, since Macron is an idiot who still sees Putin as a human being. Big
mistake. Our leader guy here is a Communist sympathizer, sadly. Until we can deal with that, we have been temporarily neutered. It's ugly. Really ugly all around. We here have some very serious problems to solve.
reading of history, suggests that there is almost zero chance of avoiding a major conflict now. Our AI models are still showing a slight bias for a rebound, but the trend is almost flat. And this is not a good sign. We think it implies
a major (and dangerous) transition is coming.
And given the wild, off-the-rails idiotic weird crash-and-burn failures we are seeing in USA-land and elsewhere around the World, we don't see sanity returning for a while. Why the USA
Federal Reserve thinks that engineering a massive economic crash is a good idea now here at this point, is beyond us. They are doing more than enough just by running their "run-off" process, and shrinking their insanely bloated balance sheet.
To also hammer Americans with *double* the mortgage rates that they all had just last year, seems silly, over-the-top, and proves that Powell is just a common lawyer, way out of his depth. Oh my.
[Aug. 29, 2022 ] - Shredded Tweet
- The lovely and the awful, mixed together like debris from a storm. We might be in for it. The lack of wisdom at the level of the elite executive class, is as great as we have ever seen it. One needs a long historical perspective
to see wild foolishness as extreme as what we are seeing now. And it seems to be happening everywhere. Curious and lethal to all asset values, is our greatest concern.
Raising costs of capital rapidly, now, at a time of maximum
transition, will *add to* inflation, not reduce it. The unwise and business-hostile economic policy choices being taken now, will also add to inflation, and also reduce risk-linked asset values. Putin's stupid war will reduce global food-stocks
at a time of reduced crop yields globally. The elite are actually engineering mass-poverty. This is the classical prescription for war.
And rather like the post-1929 period of the 1930's, or the 1914 time-frame after the Serbian
"Black Hand" assassination of an "Arch-Duke', there is no requirement that we track down this stupid path. We simply have a collection of not-wise decision makers who seemed determined to drive the various Ships of State onto various rocks, shoals, and
reefs. Wreckage seems to be in our collective future, and there does not seem to be much the average fellow can do about this.
We seem to be looking at the: "Great Mean-Reversion to Scarcity, Foolishness, and Conflict",
and have no operational choice in either the trend or the outcome. Annoying.
[Aug. 26, 2022 ] - Time - It marches on. And some time away has been good. Maybe, time is almost up? The August sun at
the Lake was lovely. Doing repairs on the dock, which was destroyed by the ice, last winter. Took along some Writers Tears. Read some old books. Carried some wood, Built some structure, and saw some fish.
It's still Summer. But it is slipping away, fast.
Like we all are.
I read an interesting book about Gerard Mercator, the "cosmographer" and map-maker, of the 1500's, who created the distorted-but-very-useful "Mercator" projection,
and used it in the first, proper and reasonably accurate map-of-the-world. And I flipped back to this article on Peter Thiel, which I think makes tremendous key points, even though it is written by a woman who is not in any way, someone who supports
Thiel's important and accurate world-view.
The article is *not* a screed on "the-dangers-of-progress",
because it offers enough of Thiel's obvious and accurate picture-of-the-world, to indicate that the real concern is the "extreme-danger-of-not-having-progress", which is where we all are now.
We live in a world which is running retrograde.
I know this to be a fact, based on a lot of information that is too involved to offer here.
We have this accounting-illusion of progress. We have extreme and consistant government financial "trickery" being used, to offer lots of free services
to folks who are economic parasites. The problem with this approach to "social justice" is that it is very effectively "hollowing out" and quietly killing the "middle-class" in most Western societies. The process is slow, and is not easily observable,
especially since the numbers are being actively "rigged" to disguise and obfuscate what is happening.
But Thiel knows it, and so do others - you don't have to be a "Prince or a Lord" to see and feel what is taking place.
We have trashed the future.
There is no real progress - only the accounting-illusion of progress. And this is why, in this future-world now mostly dominated by scarcity and intense competition for resources and opportunity, there will be rising levels of conflict.
"Alphabet War" has already begun. Here, it is political. But in Russia and Ukraine, it is a bloody and violent shooting war. In Europe, it is becoming first, a "Taxation War", and the first casualties, are likely to be European
businesses based in Germany.
What can the average person do? Invest wisely, and recognize the toxic nature of the information sources that one can obtain. Not much else. As a nation? Build resilient response capability,
and do it quickly, and cost-effectively.
[Aug. 20, 2022 ] - Hot, Steaming CNN Logs - Check this steaming material: CNN reports that White House skanks "privately" express concern about supposedly classified material Trump had
at his home. Oh, so these are "privately expressed thoughts' - that just happen to end up on CNN? How about that! Do the persons in the White House, honestly think that the people of the USA are all super-stupid, and
cannot see thru these obvious attempts at pumping out political attack dis-information?
Just read this piece of absurd and ugly nonsense. It basically makes no sense. It is just a bogus and abusive hit-piece against Trump. It's the equivalent of putting cocaine in some guy's glove compartment of his car, and then calling
the cops, giving them the license number, and saying the guy is a drug dealer. FFS, Joe Biden. Stop letting your idiot staff be so astonishingly stupid. Your people are defecating on the American public. You should stop them from
doing this. It degrades you, and damages your office.
Maybe your people really did steal the election? We never really believed that. But this FBI raid and the resulting fallout, is just becoming simply
insane. It makes Watergate look like nothing.
You and your hit-squads are maybe going to face prosecution, once the USA government changes. You should consider the real risk of this, and act now to stop this insane political assault by mental
lightweights who are seeking to damage American democracy and the operational continuity of American government.
The Biden White House assault against Trump - who received his classified security briefings as all ex-Presidents have - is mindless,
illegal and just plain stupid. Now, Trump has no choice, he has to run. The Republicans are now required to choose him, and he will have to win. This is not a great outcome. People will have to vote for Trump, just to restore
order and operational sanity, and to correct the problems that exist at the FBI and the IRS. This path did not need to be taken. But the recent actions of the FBI and Garland have changed everything.
The first battles of the
Alphabet War, will likely be entirely political, within Washington itself. They will begin in November, assuming the election takes place. Once these political problems are addressed, the bigger ones in the the wider world can be dealt with.
[Aug. 19, 2022 ] - Crimea River - With some "Writer's Tears", I suppose. Bought a gift for a dear friend, maybe I get to have a drink or two with him this weekend. Checked out the local Bed Bath and Beyond here, and it was nice,
full of fine stuff for the home, and looked fine. Price-ponits are high, and traffic was light. The Marshall's next door was busier, and my significant other bought herself a pretty coat. The products in BBBY are expensive, and this morning,
pre-opening, the stock price is low, and has just crashed from $18.55/shr close-price yesterday, to $10.51, down over 8 dollars per share, as I key this. Pre-open action is big, and share price looks to crater. If I were
the management of BBBY, I would call up Jake Freeman, and hire him, and say "Get Busy. Do it. What should we do?"
Retail is a really tough business, dictated by fashion and funding and the monetary conditions of consumer's wallets.
Really. I saw a couple of things I would have bought at BBBY, except I have a stack of 4-figure property tax bills on my desk, and these induce the sprit of frugality to hover above me, like a large, black bird. Plus, we have
so much stuff, that any expenditure on anything, typically requires we trash something we currently have, if we buy anything new. My old Protestant work ethic and my modern Japanese sense of "Mo-tai-nai" (which translates roughly as "Don't waste!"),
induces me to limit consumption item aquisition..
These are very strange times. We have never been in better shape financially, yet we feel poor. We see a very different world around us, everywhere. The Muslims which have settled here
make fine citizens, but some days, it looks like Kabul - with all these women wearing burkas that hide their hair and/or faces, some even cover their entire bodies in shapeless bags. Makes me want to wear body armour (just kidding - I think...).
Our governments are acting to destroy what we were. and what we are. Will they also attack our future? We are actually very pro-immigration. The immigrants benefit our nation, and expand it's strength and range of opportunities.
But they also mark clearly, our failure to correct the obvious problems in other lands.
The betrayal of Afghanistan by the Democrats in the USA, and by the Liberals here, was the worst most absurd military defeat I ever saw in all of history -
a surrender and *runaway-runaway* act of strange political cowardice that has damaged the Western World and the proactive world-culture of freedom. We suspect history will document Biden in the USA, and Trudeau in Canada, as two of the very worst political
leaders in all of human history - since they surrendered the centre of the "world-island" to the forces of darkness and pure evil that are the Taliban. No "Peacekeeping" force, no attempt to maintain the place - just pure *runaway* cut-and-run
cowardice and fraud, from dishonest, stupid political paltroons, who should be dragged from their offices and made to answer for their criminal stupidity. One literally has to go back to the Fall of the Roman Empire to see such awful and tragic
examples of failure and abandonment, as what Western forces did to the Afghan people.
So our failures, first as colonial overlords and then second, as technical consultants on nation-building, will cost us - and by us, we mean those of us who hold fast
to the values of freedom that are the key beliefs of Western World culture. We see the rise of the extemely dishonest and abusive political entity that is now Putin's Russia, and the beligerent new China of Xi, and we see the worst-case scenario
of The Great Future of Failure that may lie before us.
It is a grim picture.
We see the "world-island" captured and subjegated by evil men who control murderous armies of barely literate thugs, who are given licence to bomb, kill, rape, steal
and destroy everything around them. The New Silk Road will be a highway of blood and horror and violence, as thug armies march, and kill and destroy the modern Western World and it's modern ideal of freedom.
This process is already happening,
and is already rolling in Russian occupied Ukraine, in the direct military threats against Taiwan, and in Myanmar. Japan has been rendered weak and defeated by the murder of Abe, and the UK has been badly damaged by the betrayal and defeat
of Boris Johnson. Europe is run by complete idiots who are shutting down their nuclear reactors, so their people can instead burn wood to heat their homes this winter, as the Russian gangsters shut down their gas supply.
We see all the hard-won
gains of the last 120 years, starting to run in reverse.
And we cannot escape the feeling that critical action is required to remove the complete fools and abusive idiots that currently dominate our political and government organs.
feeling just nags at many of us, quietly in the background, across many of our modern cultures, not just here in Canada or USA. It is curious that *many* Japanese feel the same way, as do others in many other nations. The French "Yellow Vest"
protesters, the Dutch farmers, the pro-Brexit folks in the UK, who saw the damage that was being done to England - all are fighting a common problem. And also are the Americans, as the January 6th protesters in the USA, who saw an unwell, unwise
old-man puppet, defeat a strong, and vigourous champion of American rights and American ideals, and concluded that the election was massively rigged to ensure this absurd outcome.
Everywhere, the feeling builds that we are being betrayed and
cheated. The feeling warns us that we are being misled by fools and fraudsters and criminals, who seek to end all that our Western World View and Cultural models have created, over the last 200 years.
Are we really under attack?
How can one conlude that we are not? The very idea of male and female is under attack, and the multicoloured flag of sexual identity transposition, is waved in our face, and we are told that this is something we are supposed to be proud of.
Really? How can anyone accept that sort of insane, mentally sick foolishness, and support it with political action? One simply cannot.
But it is not just the girlboys and the queers and the dykes and the trans-sanity folks.
There are explicit and direct operations being carried out everywhere, by dishonest political operatives, the purpose of which is to explictly damage and destroy our historical Western World political, economic and cultural traditions - most explicitly, the
common culture of freedom. Freedom itself is being attacked, and this is where it gets very dangerous.
The massive home-invasion raid on Donald Trump's Florida residence was ugly, wrong, dishonest and abusive, and it signals a new and vicious
trend in the corrupt politics of the US Democratic Party. The FBI stole the man's diplomatic passport. This is beyond the pale.
The Democrats are no longer political people who are to be trusted, as also nor are the "Liberal
Party" folks in Canada. Both entities are taking explicit actions to assault and degrade traditional freedoms that have historically characterized both nations, since their beginnings.
So, these curious times are upon us, and the fear and
anger that these unwise actions by dishonest political operatives acting as government agents undertake, can only undermine our sense of national identiy and our collective sense of national freedom. If we are not free, we are not anything, since we
have since our history began, collectively defined ourselves this way - as free people, strong and free, living in a free country. We can welcome any immigrants who want to live free lives, and breathe the sweet air of freedom. And we are *all*
immigrants here, in this New World. No humans evolved here. Every human here came from someone who made the long march to Freedom and Opportunity.
But we must ensure that our own governments do not assault the very essense of what
makes us what we are. They must not degrade our freedom, that which defines what we are.
We are lately being attacked from the inside, curiously, by our own governments. And this is not good. We must correct this.
is even more curious, is that this sense of betrayal is not unique to us here. So many people feel this, and in so many different nations. The common threat is the assault on our traditional freedoms. Those who govern the State apparatus
are turning into strange enemies right inside our own homelands, and they are attacking anyone and anything that threatens their abusive and dishonest actions. Has the "Long Covid" damaged the little brains of our "leaders", perhaps?
this curious feeling of anger, betrayal and frustration affect the markets? Of course it does, and it probably alters and drives changes in consumption patterns. People worry less about the pillows and blankets on their beds, than they
worry about their personal security, their finances, their sense of freedom and their children's chances for a good education and a viable economic future.
We *must* execute a "course-correction" in the modern, Western-culture World. We have no
choice but to do this.
It is important that the Republicans win in the USA. They have not just to win, they have to win BIG, and completely crush and defeat the forces of darkness that threaten America from within, and seek to destroy it's greatness,
and degrade and damage it's future. There are unwise people in charge now. Are these the kind of people that LIz Cheney represents? A political party has to ensure operational loyalty, otherwise it cannot function at all. So
her political defeat was needed.
A nation has to have some critical, commonly agreed upon, ideals that it represents and stands for. Otherwise it cannot stand successfully against the threats that the World will throw against it. The gangster-leaders
in China and Russia are being effective, and hone their people's sense of national identity, knowing it is a force.
We should be doing the same thing here. The difference, of course, is that we can be honest, and can speak truthfully.
We must support and cherish and promote the ideals of Freedom. It is the only thing that can hold us together here in the West, and allow us to defeat the dark forces we are always dealing with, and that we shall soon have to be fighting directly,
and with all our efforts.
I honestly believe we can win the coming war. Especially if we can be guided by the beauty and effectiveness of our fine weapons. And our very greatest weapon, our most perfect & powerful weapon, is our
shared belief and insistance upon, the common culture of Freedom, that runs like a clear and pure and beautiful river, through all of the developmental history of the Western World.
The future may well see "The Alphabet War".
The Russians started it, with their use of the Roman "Z", as their signature glyph to describe their assault on Ukraine and it's Western ideals. The Chinese use Pinyin glyphs on their hardware in their campaign against Taiwan.
And our big coalition, will not use symbols of stars or leaves or crosses, it might just use the old Roman Eagle, with "SPQR" below it. The SPQR is the ancient, trans-national, Western World Roman symbol, which stands for honest, elected
government (the Senate) allied with all the People, engaged in the ancient and necessary Roman tradition of preserving, protecting and extending the Western World culture of Freedom.
We suspect that this global "Alphabet War" has already
begun. But of course, what really matters, is how it ends. It must end in victory, for the Forces of Freedom. Not just for us, but for everyone in this World, who insists upon living in Truth and in Freedom.
2022 ] - How to Make $110 million in US Dollars, While You Are Working on Your Degree (Not Your Tan), In the Peoples Republic of Californistan. In Three Weeks. Really. - The story is in the Financial Times, which is behind the big
paywall, but here is the ZeroHedge summary, courtesy of Tyler Durden:
I love this story. Now be clear, the kid got $25 million from his Dad. For all lads and ladies starting out, the "Bank of Dad" (or Mom), is the best place to borrow the funds needed to do your first big swinging trade.
My two best trades were: #1: self-funded by my first big consulting gig, and by a take-back mortgage from the vendor and #2: the returns from the first trade, plus a quite fair-sized chuck from the Bank of Dad, advanced against inheritance (another damn good
idea, all families should consider).
The first trade paid off over 10 times (but it took 11 years, to be honest), and the second trade has been even better (and is where we live now - the Farm - which probably has a similar payoff level, but at double
the time horizon - so far...)
So don't envy or be critical of this kid. He has done the right thing, in the right way, and at the right time of his life. When you are young, is the time to swing really hard for the damn fence.
If you whiff, and strike out, you can recover without too much harm. Bravo to him. We salute Jake Freeman, and wish him well, and hope his future efforts (and the results of his Fund!) meet with the same level of success. We
like to see young guys win, and win big.
This is why the Free World exists - to allow this sort of thing to be possible. Jake Freeman used leverage and options, to aquire roughly 6% of BBBY stock, and his little "Hedged Fund", even sent
a detailed letter to the BBBY management, suggesting how they might dig themselves out of the hole they are now in.
This kid's prescription is not bullshit. It looks sound. It reminds me of what a fellow named: Horace Greely Hjalmar
Schacht did to save his country from the outright economic insanity into which it had sunk. Too complicated to explain here, but absolutely doable (since it really was done), and is not that different from the debt-paydown, restructuring of the
debt at a lower rate, and the issuance of convertable shares (which become attractive to investors, since they offer a real chance to participate in, and profit by, an honest, real turnaround. And a turnaround of Bed Bath and Beyond is possible, given
today's inflationary environment, labour market, and household formation rate. USA is not Japan. It just is not. BBBY turnaround is not assured, but it still appears possible.
Tyler Durden writes a fair bit of snotty
tripe around what Jake Freeman did, (is Dyler jealous?) but it looks perfectly sensible and valid, since letting a big-name retail operation crash and burn needlessly, especially given the historical characteristics of what a post-pandemic world
can look like, is silly, and stopping-the-silly can often be nicely profitable.
And kids do well in crazy times. Larry Livingston did pretty well, as I recall. And so did Mr. W. Buffet. (I once thought to participate in
the turnaround of a not-too-shabby local transport company, and I bought thousands of their shares at around $2.00. But I was stupid, and young and wrong. The management and their bankers, just flushed the stockholders down the toilet, and after
losing half my money, I bailed, and watched the stock go to "zero", in the typical bullshit-style restructurings that are all in vogue now.
We should respect and make use of old-fashioned bankruptcy, where new, young managements can acquire
good assets on the cheap. We do exactly the wrong thing with these modern restructurings, where nothing changes, and managment and unions get bailed out and stockholders get erased - like was executed for GM, where the stockholders ended up with
garbage called "Motors Corp..." crap something, and the Management, the unions and the government weasels all did fine, and new GM shares were sold to fat-money boys, and the honest, true company owners got ruined. That whole operation was an ugly,
government-sanctioned, corrupt fraud. (Yes, I owned some original GM shares. Still pisses me off. )
I was surprised when Tory guy Jim Flaharty died shortly after resigning from being Canada Finance Minister.
("Maybe there really is a God?") His wife was a Liberal member for Oshawa, which had the big GM plant, which dialed back production, and closed completely in 2019. It re-opened two years later, in 2021, to make very high-priced pickup trucks
for wealthy people. But the original owners of GM got nothing but income-tax bills. All benefits went to GM management and the Unifor union.
That ugly and awful GM nonsense may have cost the Tories the subsequent election,
because the Stephen Harper Government sure lost me and many others when the dirty scam was run to bail GM with billions of dollars taxpayer money - and erase completely the share values of the shareholders who actually owned the company.
Filthy GM should have been bankrupted honestly, and it's assets and lands auctioned off to honest businessmen. And the workers might still kept their jobs, in a proper, new, self-financing company, instead of a everyone losing in a government scam
scheme that raped the Treasury.
The taxpayers of Canada got fucked over to the tune of over 3.5 billion Canadian dollars in that scam. It was a shameful thing for a Conservative Government to do, and it should not have been done. It
was theft from the public Treasury, plain and simple, and it was done to secure political advantage for the Finance Minister, and his family. And all political parties were part of this awful scheme. It was wrong and shameful. The modern
GM truck plant that operates now in Oshawa was built on the backs of ruined shareholders and cheated Canadian taxpayers.
If the Stock Exchange and the regulators do not get in bed with corrupt government toads, and set
out to ensure that the stock-holders get cheated and kicked to the curb and left with nothing, then legitimate restructurings are possible, and can work - usually IFF ("if and only if" - a term from mathematics), the management is replaced with intellegent,
honest-and-honorable men and women. Sometimes this can happen. But often does not happen. (Eg. Nortel. One group of thieves and fraudsters were replaced by yet another group of thieves and fraudsters. Tragic and ugly.
The company failed, in an awful and spectacular manner. Their hardware was good, their software was excellent. I know this for certain. Their management were unconvicted criminals. They were put on trial. But it was so sad the
court case to prosecute the Nortel managment was not successful. It's very hard to prove corporate security fraud. ) We still have Nortel preferred shares (worth nothing, of course), in one of our portfolios. The company was
a national jewel, and it's patent portfolio was sold for over $4 billion dollars. The company had real value. But the managment who ruined Nortel, were either worthless idiots and/or pocket-filling criminal fraudsters. Probably both.
Know this: Over time, the quality of company management has a terrible tendency to degrade and disapate and lose focus and ability. This is so common, and is such a profound and oft-repeated trend, you can seriously
make book on it. And that is what the short-sellers do. And usually, they win.
But not always.
Right now, I am off to buy some towels, and take a little look-see, at just how bad the local BBBY really is.
BBBY is not Target. Target failed when it came here. BBBY has done not too badly in Canada. They are not IKEA, but they are OK. We spent over $200 at the nearest IKEA last week. Home improvement and home products are selling
well. Really well. BBBY does not have to die.
We cannot quite figure out how and why things have gotten so very strange in the dear old USA, where family and good friends live. The pandemic lockdowns
perhaps made many people crazy, and recovery is still taking place.
On balance, we now suspect the lockdowns were unwise. And we fear they were a "gateway drug" for corrupt and abusive government officials (of which there
seem to be an awful lot, surprisingly.) Free societies work better, when there is freedom. And Ukraine shows us that folks prefer freedom, even if enemy missiles are raining from the sky, rather than life inside non-free "Gulag Nations" where FSB
Secret Police can drag you to prison and then torture and murder you. Not surpising, is this phenomenon. (London, in the UK, showed us this also, back in the early 1940's)
Freedom is a good and wonderful thing.
History suggests it's price is blood and conflict - on a curiously regular basis. The USA Democrats (and the Canada Liberals) are playing very dangerous games, these days. Both political parties seem to have gone off the rails, rather quite badly,
and become serious abusers of freedom.
We want USA to stay strong, and vote Republican, and then work bi-partisan with the remaining sane Democrats, to solve the problems. The Looney Left "Safety Nazi" types, the SJW's
and the Lockdownistas, should be hived-off into their own little group of "progressive" nutjobs, who can then fight with themselves over non-issues and silly fake stuff. Like our NDP often does. I hope someday, we can put them all on the "B-Ark"
and be done with them.
Dear America... We cheer for you, and wish you well. Just make sure you keep your 2nd (and 1st!) Amendments to your Constitution. Both are really, really goddamn good ideas!
[Aug. 17, 2022 ] - AI is Giving Another Insane Projection - Check out the "Trading Notes" section, for the current (insane?) AI projection plot of our testbed security - which we hold in a big way. Real money, two seperate portfolios.
We avoid diversification, since we have found best results seem to be from concentration, and modern volatility obviates most of the benefits of risk-spreading. Nowadays, you maybe want to put most of your assets into your best idea.
and insane forecast, for insane times. Also, the public letter from the CEO of Smith and Wesson, is in the "Glorious Good Guns" section. Read it. It's one page, and helps understand the absurd madness underway in the USA.
Aug. 16, 2022 ] - The Red Pill - Really. - I had long two-hour conversation about politics with a good friend/close associate. Both he and his wife have joined the Conservative Party, to help get a former Quebec Liberal Premier to become
head of the Party. This Tory leadership race is a big, big deal for Canada. Our current national PM is not good, and he and his Party need tot be defeated.
The "Red Pill" is the pill you take, to see the World accurately, as it really
is. The "Blue Pill" is the pill which confers happy delusion, and ignorance to what is really happening. The Leftist Media and TV and Radio, have been feeding us "Blue Pills" of sweet, seductive delusion, since the beginning of the 20th century.
The Red Pill is bad tasting, and the truth of things, is often ugly, nasty and painful.
My dear friend, and his wife (both very successful, very wealthy lawyers) have been "Red Pilled." They see now the danger idiot-wokeness politics represents.
They have children. This is bloody wonderful - except they still hate Trump and MAGA and think Trump and MAGA are evil. (They only got the local Canadian Red Pill, for now.) This is so, so curious. They also don't like the Tory guy
that I like - Pierre Poilievre (pronounced: Pea - Air - Polly - ev - rah) - who is a good man, and who must win the leadership, or we are all screwed, IMHO.
The argument is that Charest should win, because he is a middle-of-the-road, make-no-waves,
former Liberal, and former Tory who was a Minister in Brian Mulroney's cabinet, long ago. Jean Charest (pronounced: Zshawn - Shar - rest) has support from "Red Tories" (basically, neo-leftists who believe in fiscal responsibility, but also funding
lots and lots of "social programs" ). He is viewed by "pundits" (yes, I know...), as being the best chance for the Conservatives to retake the Commons, and form the next Government, and rid us of Fidel Castro's son (Ha ha, just joking. Maybe.)
who is current PM, and who is widely hated by many for a long list of reasons.
We believe that Poilievre is a better choice, since he represents real actual new ideas and honest change. He is a "Reform" style Conservative, a very unique
thing in Canadian politics. He is a good and honest person, and he does not respect Trudeau. (He is a good and honourable fellow.) The "pundits" say he cannot defeat Trudeau, because Canadians are risk-averse pussies, and will not
vote for change. I disagree. But we argue about future events. Silly. Here is media note on Poilievre, and they make him look like a Westerner, even though he is from Ontario. Typical media bullshit trick (they use a picture of
him from an Alberta BBQ).
Suddenly, it is very serious here. Trudeau
has begun a process to ban handguns in Canada, which are *really* very tightly controlled already. It is pure politics, and will make Canada a *much* more dangerous place, and a *much* more violent society. It is a very, very bad idea. And
Trudeau and his government have been chock-full of very bad ideas, which have become very bad laws.
Politics and Economics are like two evil twins who are co-joined. Economics explains why sellers cluster together, and politics is just a form
of trade. But if all the politicals are selling the same steaming bag-of-dung, people disengage, knowing they cannot change anything by their actions. Political parties must champion different ideas. That's how we get progress. People
have to live and act in real Truth, not wallow in political delusion and be victims all the time of class-system fraud and economic fairy-tales.
So, I am happy to see my two dear friends get "Red Pilled". But they have only *partly* chosen to
live in truth. It's still basic politics - if we put Charest in as Tory Leader, we offer the voters "same shit, different day" - no real change in thinking or direction. More Liberal tax-and-spend and social ballshots that we less-and-less can
afford, without further raising taxes. Income tax is already insane here - and we also pay 13% vigourish on every single farking economic transaction - the HST (used to be the GST, until it was "harmonized" with the RST, the Provincial Retail Sales Tax.)
Foreign visitors call it the "Holy Shit Tax", because they say "Holy Shit!" when they see the 13% added to their bill for anything they buy in Ontario Canada
Below is the best, most important article written by a USA reporter/analyst in the last 30
years. Read it. (Sasha used to be Democrat.)
See, I am not a Trump
fan. And I support (a lot) Biden's policy on Ukraine. Putin is a very real threat to global peace, security and the future of humans on planet Earth. But maybe Trump - even if he is crazy, angry, and plain-speaking - might be a better war-leader
than Biden. Biden and Harris and the Democrats are saying and doing insane, stupid, illegal and unwise things. Having the FBI do a home-invasion raid on Trump's private home in Florida, is wrong, wrong, wrong. The whole "January 6th" witch-hunt
is ugly, stupid, abusive and wrong. The "Woke Left" are as dangerous a threat to America, as the Russian Communists were, when they had nuclear missiles computer-aimed at USA and Canada, and my Dad (former bomber pilot and then a medical guy) went up
to do a short auxillary tour of duty on the DEW Line, back in 1965. The DEW-line was a good idea, as it meant nuclear missile surprise attack would be impossible. I was a nuclear kid from a nuclear family. My Mom's cousin was also a Nuclear
Engineer, who invented a machine to do first-stage uranium enrichment, during WWII. (So when I build working fusion reactors, N2 TEA lasers, and blather on about fissile devices, I am kinda just following the family traditions of being a nuclear techster
& a shit-disturber. Really.)
I am not a fan of Trump, but if I were a USA citizen, (like some of my family folk are), I would be a card-carrying registered Republican, and would own a MAGA hat. Get used to it. No choice, really.
And I might have even voted for Obama, since Obama was young, and smart, and his "surge" in Afghanistan actually worked really goddamn well. What the fuck is wrong with today's Democrats? Are they *all* "Blue Pill" eaters?? Socialism
is fucking stupid, men cannot become women, and kids should be wisely guided, but also left alone to grow up choose their own paths. FFS.
When Trump was USA President, we had lots of oil and gas, prices were stable, there was peace and security
in the World, there was no War, China was listing it's joint-stock companies on the New York stock exchange, the taxes were low, and the economy - everywhere - was growing. There were problems, but things were OK. Now, we have clowns and
tax-and-spend fools running Washington and the USA, we have almost 10% inflation (which is likely to grow, unless we smash growth with high-rates), we are on (really) the brink of nuclear war (really), and both Russia and China recognize the extreme weakness
and **WOKEness** of a mis-managed USA, and their meglomaniac leaders know this is the best chance they will ever get, to run "smash-and-grab" operations against their neighbours, without anyone offering any kind of challenge. So, they are doing just
The Left is so full of Lies. The Washington Post and the Twitter bot-and-censorship thing are media machines that exist to pump sweet lies (my partner calls these people: "Flower-field thinkers in La-La happy land".
Pretty good translation, eh?) The Leftist media pump out delusions every day, day in and day out - onto the screens of the Blue-Pilled Democrat supporters.
This is just nuts. It is crazy-time madness, and it actually has
lots of historical examples.
Caesar was feared and hated, and was threatened, and then, was eventually murdered. Trump is not Caesar - but neither is old Joe Biden. Trump at least tried to be a leader, and not a puppet.
And that fool running the USA Justice Department is a buffoon and a supporter of - if not technically illegal actions - certainly deeply unwise, very bad actions. He should be removed, and soon. Biden should replace this poor choice, to try to
ensure DOJ retains some respect and the confidence of the American people.
Today, at the farm, our neighbours are spreading manure. It is hot. It smells bad. I told my partner: "Honey, the smell is so bad, it is like chewing on shit!"
She made a face and laughed.
Taking the Red Pill makes reading the Leftist news and watching the Leftist Media feel (and taste?) similar. It's like consuming dung.
I tell my American friends, they might want to vote Republican, just to
protect and sustain the USA Republic. Because the Democrats are acting insane, and are doing bad things.
The FBI is now widely seen (rather like the IRS) as a potential direct threat to every living American in his or her own home. If they
can be wired-up to attack a former President whose Party is leading in the polls, they can certainly come and simply kill you. Like they did at Waco, Texas to the Davidians, and to that fellow at Ruby Ridge. Remember that? The FBI were a
problem. And now, they are a bigger problem. The DOJ is sending them on political hits. There needs to be wholesale cleaning at both the USA Department of Justice, and at the FBI. It won't likely happen under the Bidenistas.
Wake up, America. Yes, the Washington politics is not nice, and it smells even worse, with Leftist folks in charge at every level, filling their pockets with your tax money. It's like a field of steaming manure now. But if you can vote
for real change in November, you can maybe get a new crop of better people to begin to grow in the place where the stinking field of hot shit is now.
Such is the Benefit and Cost of Red Pill Enlightenment. Nothing is free. But living
in truth is the only rational choice. Political lies are like worms in your food. People and nations don't operate correctly, on a diet of worms.
[ Aug. 15, 2022 ] - US Democrat Party Appears to Be Insane - So, be careful
with American investments. The Democrats have just handed Intel $50 billion in tax incentives to build a new chip plant (Intel really needs money? Really?) and has passed an insane piece of Theatre of the Absurd legislation called "The Inflation
Reduction Act", which will give poor people free money to pay their utility bills, will spend $80 billion on hiring an entire *army* of armed IRS tax inspectors, will spend a whole bunch of money on "climate change initiatives" (free money for more folks who
know how to suck at the trough for it), free money for more poor people to let them get presciptions drugs below costs of development and production, and special *funding* to cut health-care premiums. And these clowns - these strange curious political
people who operate in Washington - these people called this $437 billion bucket of economic slush and political kickback - the "Inflation Reduction Act", which is simply insane.
It is seriously, honestly insane. Even the Wharton School at Univ.
of Pennsylvania says this massive expenditure of foolishness will likely *raise* inflation, not lower it. But hey, the difference is statistically close enough to zero, that we could call it zero... maybe. (Hilarious, really.)
Oh, and of
course, there will be expanded and increased taxes on corporations, to pay for this. And that $80 billion for the IRS, too. (Please Note, America: Expect the Tax Men to come calling. Again. And again. And again, taxation
How did the Demorats come up with this Bucket of Money-Slush? They polled folks. Mr. Ron Klain, the White House Chief of Staff, said: (and we quote, from Bloomberg): "Our internal polling shows that messages touting
the cost-lowering features of the *Inflation Reduction Act* - lowering health care costs, prescription drug costs, and utility bills -- are among the highest testing messages ever." Well for fuck sakes, what did they expect? How was the
survey run? Did they ask: "Would you like to Vote Republican, and pay market-prices for drugs and doctor visits, or would you like to Vote Democrat and have us give you free money to pay your bills?" Something like that, maybe?
Talk about bad data. Really. Bad. Data.
Now, Joe Biden and these Democrat Clowns are going on a multi-state campaign tour - more than 35 events in the next few weeks to promote this absurd, insane nonsense.
This is pure,
classical insanity. I am dead serious here. This is madness.
Are the American people completely fucking stupid? I don't think so. Old Granny Yellen has said the $80 billion for the IRS and it's new armed agents, will
not be used to terrorize ordinary middle-class Americans. But that is just air moving over her old-lady lips. It has no force of law, and since it is a comment about future intention, it has no operational value. It is probably just
political cover-talk. We will have to wait, to prove it to be a lie.
But the Democrats are actually running their campaign on this ugly tax-and-kickback-spend big-money taxation and spending law.
We look at this and think:
Wow. The Democrats might have cut taxes, or at least done nothing, and promised to "hold the line on out-of-control government spending" or something like that. That way, they could have looked like moderate, prudent fiscal managers, even if they
were not really. But with this slime-laden pot-of-slush and kickbacks, funded by $80 billion in new money for the IRS and for armed IRS agents, combined with increased taxes on corporations, the Democrat Clowns have proven to anyone
with an IQ over 80, that they are unfit to manage money and govern - much less manage and govern the biggest, and best nation in the World.
The Democrats appear to be insane. They honestly believe that touting this bogus-named law, (It really
should have been called: "The Inflation and Taxation Act") which is just a grab-bucket of tax and kickback-spending, that they are going to buy votes from the American people.
We think that Americans are not as stupid as the Democrats are counting on.
Not now, after all this pandemic nonsense.
We are pretty sure that the Republicans will find that this idiotic legislation helps them in November. Having the Democrats in control of everything, is just not good for American economics, and certainly
not for the American people.
Even if you normally vote Democrat, you might want to support your local Republican guy or gal, in November. Sanity needs to be let back into the building. The Demorats have sent her packing,
and this is just not good. Not good at all.
[ Aug. 14, 2022 ] - Threat Assessment & the AI-is-Lucifer Meme - Really? AI as the new "Digital Anti-Christ?" See, this is what worries me. People are just getting
cross-the-line crazy, even the sane folk out in the lovely country, away from the cities, who should really know better. Or, maybe they are just becoming more extreme, in order to harvest clicks, and keep some google-ad-revenue dribbling in? Unclear.
But check this most interesting note:
List goes on. Now, the authors make a lot of good points. The risk - the main threat - from AI, is it's ability to allow effective mass-monitoring of all human action, to be made a reality. That's the old "1984" view-screen in every house
nightmare. Winston & Julia try to find a place to have some old-style normie love-making, contrary to "Party Doctrine", and the view-screen gets uncovered in their trysting-spot, and they are imprisioned, tortured, they betray each other, and are
destroyed by the State. This is the Orwellian (and Soviet-Russian, remember) nightmare.
AI technology and the mass "internet of things" can make this nightmare a reality - as it already is beginning to, in China and Russia, where masses of people
are being programmed to believe weird, awful, stupid shit that is not true, so meglomaniac leaders can pursue their wet-dreams of global conquest. Really - this is happening right now, playing out in real time, on an internet-connected computer-screen
a few key-clicks away from you, right fucking now.
This is nuts.
This entire social-program model is bad and crazy, and will end badly - except it won't really ever end, it will just keep on, until we are all at each other's throats.
Putin has convinced Russians that Nazi's are controlling Ukraine, and war is needed. No other view can be put forward. It is mass-monitoring, AI and big-data management technology that makes this sort of horrific stupid lie possible.
Same thing in China, with Xi. He has and is working right now, to convince the Chinese people that they need to "re-take" Taiwan. This is crazy-stupid, cruel, pointless and evil. But it is the internet and the extreme Chinese internet-monitoring
that makes Xi's wet-dream of conquest possible. No other sanity-enhancing view can be put forward. This is only possible because it is being technologically enabled - and augmented with AI. The best example being the face-recognition video
monitoring technology (Heck, I think they kinda look all the same - but the AI can do better at Chinese face-recognition than I can, no doubt about it.)
So, we are tracking toward these sad/bad nightmare outcomes. This has little
to do with Davos or Lucifer or some silly "Globalist agenda". It's just the same set of expanding threats that we have all faced since science joined hands with the military, and began the process of making better and more effective weapons.
AI can be a very effective weapon. It allows mass-surviellance to be made effective and actionable. The Chinese and Russians and the Americans are doing it now. Our "5-Eyes" are useless, if not connected to machines that can interpret
what is being seen.
"Rome is Your Fweind!" (cf. "The Life of Brian")
Let's be clear: AI is just another enabling technology, like a good handgun. A handgun is a lovely thing, as it really does confer god-like
power. You close your fist, and you can hurl a thunderbolt, just like old Zeus. Fine and lovely - if it is wielded by a good guy, against a bad guy or a murderous crazy "mucker" (cf. "To Stand on Zanzibar". "Mucker" was not from
"mugger", but actually was taken from "amok-er", a term to describe a person who has "run amok", or is "running amok".) "Amok" is a Malay term for "a murderous frenzy". In European Old-Norse language, a similar term describing the same human phenomenon
- a murderous frenzy - is: "berserk", or "berserkr", taken from "bjorn" = bear + "serkr" = shirt. )
Language is how we understand. Our very language, and our mathematics, are forms of artificial intelligence. Napolean used AI.
His artillery officers put two logarithmic scales together on a little stick, so that they could slide against each other, and this let his guys use some basic trigonometry and quick, rough multiplication, to more accurately aim their cannons in the rapid
heat of battle. The guy who aims fastest and fires with the most accuracy, wins.
In aircraft, a simple gyroscope mechanism allowed an "artifical horizon" instrument to be created, which ran from air blown into it while the aircraft moved.
This little instrument let pilots "fly blind", without seeing the real horizon. If you can't see the real horizon, you run real risk of spiral-diving into the earth, since the acceleration vector points down from your arse, tells you if you are flying
straight and level (hence: "flying by the seat of your pants"). But in a spiral-death curve, you can *feel* you are flying straight-and-level, yet you are tracking a perfect spiral toward the earth, as the acceleration vector is still pointing outwards,
orthagonal to your own backside. Without the little "artificial horizon" instrument, you are a dead-man. But with it, you can fly through cloud, use some math to determine your course and location, and bomb the crap out of the enemies cities, even
if you cannot see them. We won World War II this way.
AI is not new. It's not new at all. We have been using it for centuries. And it reached it's best and most effective expression, in war
and conflict. World War Two was a science-war. We won, because our science was better. It was a *lot* better.
So, yeah. We need to be careful. But we also need to avoid being stupid. There is an intense AI arms-race
going on, right now. AI is not a "digital daemon". It's just another device for human augmentation, much like a good bow-and-arrow, a good, strong Damascus-steel sword-blade (both strong *and* flexible), or a good rifle is ( a rifled bore
being a huge technical improvement over a smooth-bore ball firing flint-lock gun). Know this.
So stop this stupid "crazy meme talk" about globalization being bad, and religious and/or witchcraft nonsense and god-fiction hooey, and
just learn how to use the tech. The AI technology is a weapon now. And the guys with the best and most effective weapons, generally win the big war.
The big war is already happening. It is a crazy cultural war, as
much as it is becoming a real war, like it is right now, in Ukraine. And like all big wars, it is one that the good guys must win, or we will see freedom die like those folks in Kyiv suburb Bucha saw it die. Really.
Can AI help us prevent this kind of ugly shit like Russia did in Bucha? Maybe. Just maybe.
[ Aug. 13, 2022 ] - Big USA Election Coming - And it's already being rigged, in plain sight. Don't take our
word for this. We are just gentle statisticians and analysts in the black-art of political economy. But there is solid evidence that the Trump documents were available anytime that the USA government wanted to come and look at them.
The FBI raid on Trump's private residence is an astonishing travesty, on many different levels - from the basic issue of being an obviously abusive "home invasion", to the legal support given to it by a toad-faced moron in the US "Justice" Department, to the
political foolishness of the curiously corrupted Democratic Party of the USA. It's just crazy-nutbar bad, all around.
Don't take our word for it. We think it looks like second- or third-rate ratfucking. So do many others.
The Democrats should be ashamed of doing this, and it may well cost them, despite their obvious efforts to pre-rig the November elections, using all means possible:
[ Aug. 12, 2022 ] - Dead Fish Don't Swim Home - The Democrats are behaving with astonishing foolishness. The political weaponization of the US Justice Department is very unwise, the FBI is honestly becoming something that is a serious
risk to ordinary Americans, the entire "Russia-meddled-in-US-election" narrative has been shown to be a false & illegal political construct, as it also now appears is the home-invasion raid by "FBI Agents" acting as Democratic political operatives - acting
to obtain information on nuclear weapons.
This has been reported by the Washington-RatFucking-Post, the most one-sided, politically slanted media-organ in the entire USA. ("Rat-Fucking" is the technical term for what are sometimes called
"Dirty Tricks" during election campaigns. I've worked on election campaigns, and I've also worked as a scrutineer at a polling station. Elections are serious. Rat-fucking was not uncommon - many amusing and not so amusing examples exist.)
The Democrat-supporting Washington Post - the infamous "Watergate Newspaper" - is a political entity now, owned by Jeff Bezos. The entity would have - mercifully - disappeared, if Bezos had not bailed it out with a bag of mega-bucks.
So, we are concerned. But not surprised. The Democrats are being crazy - an assault on a former US President, who still commands the support of the Republican Party and roughly half of the American people, is profoundly unwise.
- if Trump had retained information on nuclear-weapons deployment, I am not uncomfortable with that. Did he retain launch-code information? Is that bad? It means that if Washington were destroyed by a nuclear surprise attack, and the entire
US Government was obliterated, perhaps some ability to respond, and a political control and co-ordination mechanism that folks would respect, might be retained, and be allowed to get up and running quickly.
The entire raid looks like a political
stunt to "rat-fuck" the Republicans and harm their election chances, by making their candidate look like a dangerous and irresponsible person. This strategy might work - fear is a good political lever. But it might, like most stupid, ill-planned
stunts by not-so-cunning operatives (the "cunning-stunts brigade") backfire in a spectacular manner.
We need stability, not political histronics by a bunch of Washington pencil-necked geeks, FFS.
And as to the Market:
Rates are rising. Capital is *working right* again. Oh yeah! Not too shabby, right? Get it? I remember this great comedy group from Montreal. They performed in Toronto, and were called "Hetro Canada" (there symbol
was a copy of the "Petro Canada" logo, a giant maple leaf in background). The handbill image showed a stylized 1950's boy with a short haircut and a girl in a dress of the same era, with text below saying: "Fucking Right!" - a clever phrase with an obvious
This is the world we are transititioning back to. Capital works right again. Investment works right again. Zero interest rates are like gay fucking - a rather silly idea that is profoundly unproductive, right?
Undeniable. Just a dopey, goof thing, all around. Laughable, really. And that was the genius of the "Hetro Canada" campaign, which was shut down, of course, and was accused of being "homophobic", which of course, it was not. But remember
the "Name of the Rose". Satire and humor are weapons against the overlords of evil. ALways have been, always will be.
Simple thesis: Rising interest rates => implies rising return on capital. Business models work right again.
This allows investment to work correctly again, and returns sanity to business process and financial/investment process. Rising rate of return on capital is co-associated with this - even for real capital (the physical instantiation of financial capital),
and as long as demand can be sustained (very, very critical - the buyers need to have money), then this is very, very market positive. Good for investment process, good for business, stocks get bid up.
We found this phenomenon in history.
RIsing rates seem to track rising business conditions and rising markets. Just go look, if you doubt this.
Love Trump or Hate Trump - he remains a force. And this is starting to look like the England history War of the Roses, or the
Japanese Heike versus the Gengi, or the Red Reactionairies vs the National Socialists in Germany, or the White Russians versus the Red Russians, and so on. Only Trump is *not* Florian Geyer. He is a former sitting President who won
roughly half the votes of all the People. He won't need a "Black Horde". He is a former king, and he only needs to wait until the current bunch in charge of things, deliver another major failure. He or someone like him,
will be the next President, at some near point in the future. Best strategy for Dems would be to leave him alone.
The only thing that is maintaining the Democrats, is the excellent, resiliant success of the US economy, and the better-late-than-never
actions of the US Federal Reserve, and the fact that USA can use it's reserve-currency status to buy the world's stuff without effort.
Rising interest rates are also rising rates of return on captial (typically), and tend to be associated with rising
stock markets. So Don't Fear the Reaper, or the Return-to-Sanity Rally. It's not a bad thing, and might move along just fine. Rates return to the 5% to 7% level on the long-bond (which is the minimum if inflation is
5 to 8%), and DJIA tracks back to 35,000 to 36,000, which is not an unreasonable level. This is not rocket-science, and those who would make it such, are just fucking wrong (in more ways than one, eh?) :)
Let me be even
more clear: We either track back to an environment of high-productivity and real technological improvement (not just more stupidphones) like we had in the 1960's (when everything we are using now was invented, from lasers, small computers and integrated
circuits to B61-12's), or we are dead, and will crash back down into a scenario of mass-scarcity, and mass-warfare/poverty.
Only Two paths are possible: - one leads up, and the other leads down. We either choose the Up-Path,
support a global population of 30-to-40 billion and colonize Mars and then Venus, or we all die of starvation and disease, and the cockroaches inherit the future and our dead world.
[ Aug. 11, 2022 ] - Lou Ga Booh? - Or not.
As Mr. Every indicates - the economic numbers don't make sense, until you consider this new model where we see northern DM's moving to becoming southern-style EM's (and rich folks do ok, living in EM's - and the stonks get bid up, as long as the particular
enterprise is not captured by crooks, or nuked by the corrupt government-of-the-week. (I read a *lot* of crap, but like a dirt-digger in the People's Republic of Africastan, every so often, I find a diamond - maybe..) Here is link to Zerohedge's
reprint of Micheal Every of Rabobank's little note. I read thru it, and it's bloody good (I think.) Big World is making a big transition. We still be long-long, gentlemen, despite the motion-sickness that must be endured.
So, Western World, maybe all is not lost, eh? SPQR. (I bot another CZ - the magnificant Shadow 2 Tactical.) I had always wanted to visit St. Petersburg, and tour the Hermitage. <big sigh...> Won't happen, unless Gov't changes
in Russland. But maybe I can at least go visit the Czech Republic, Prague, and the place where the CZ's come from. And Charles Bridge. Prague has been a centre of culture & learning almost as long as Rome and Athens.
Thx "Camshaft Daisy". I really liked your video (above). There is a scene from Charles Bridge in the video. I am just
a history-student, but we have to learn from our history. And sometimes, one encounters something that just resonates. I've had so many interesting conversations lately. Truth is like ground-water under pressure. The public "authorities"
and the "old rabbits" (think "Watership Downs") try to control the narrative, but truth bubbles up like springwater, in the most curious places.
[ Aug. 9, 2022 ] - Are We Not Men? - Devolutionary trends abound everywhere, it seems.
Perhaps all the news-generators are dialing up the puff to provoke clicks, and things are not really as bad as they seem. Or, perhaps they are much worse?
We are deep in the DEVO now. And curiously, the artists told us these
strange truths, thru their wilding runs down the weirds of creativity, years and years ago. We read of the FBI raid on Trump's home in Florida, the toxic spew old Medvedev is dumping out on Telegram, and the simple fact that Russia has just withdrawn
from allowing START-V2 inspections of it's nuclear weapons arsenals.
So, we not only see the USA falling into Venezuela-style politics, but the march-to-war continues, pretty much everywhere. Dear old Boris Johnson was scheduled
to meet the Polish PM, who basically told Johnson to "p*ss-off", and that he has no time for him. This is unfortunate, and is an unwise snub. We cannot shake the feeling that Johnson was the victim of a carefully aimed torpedeo, and that, as the
UK crashes into ugly hard-times, Johnson may get pulled back from oblivion, to repair things.
UK politics is harsh and vicious and profoundly toxic. It would be good if the Brits could see just how great and serious a threat
they are currently under, and try to come together and not fight among themselves (like everyone, everywhere seems so intent on doing.)
We see a very serious scenario unfolding, unlike any we have seen before. The current Russian government
is dangerously insane, and dominated by violent, gangster-style "tough guys", who represent a profound threat to the world. USA Democrats are lined up behind old women, ill old men dealing with mental decline, and looney-leftists who only represent the
American MSM (mainstream media) and the woke-fringe types who believe men can become women, by changing their clothes and their pronouns. It's madness like we would not have thought possible.
And the US Navy - one of the most successful
military organizations ever created - is now having to deal with F/A-18 "Eagle" aircraft, being wafted by wind off the airside deck of a carrier, and dropped into the wine-dark sea. Bravo that the Navy salvage teams were able to recover the sunken fighter
platform, but perhaps the boat-bosses might want to consider having the crew put tie-downs on parked aircraft? Given that you are parking $100 million aircraft on the flat-surface of a big boat, this would seem the prudent thing to do, yes?
But this curious pattern of "devolution" seems to be everywhere. We need to consider the risks and costs of electing unwise political people to positions of great authority. And of course, we need to question the dicktats of authority-agents
now, with even greater emphasis than at any time, ever before. We are left with no choice, really, lest we become part of this curious race-to-the-bottom that seems to be underway, everywhere.
[ Aug. 8, 2022 ] - Lethe and Alethia
(Oblivion and Truth) - Do we trade one for the other? Do we deny Truth, and accept delusion and fraud, to gain benefit and favour from the dishonest? Hell, no.
The truth is - is that chance and randomness are the Gods of this Universe we live in. Accept this, and profit by it. But it is in the power of each man, to define himself, set his principles and control his fate.
is only as a man puts off all foreign support, and stands alone, that I see him to be strong and to prevail. He is weaker by every recruit to his banner. Is not a man better than a town? Ask nothing of men, and in the endless mutation, thou only firm column
must presently appear the upholder of all that surrounds thee. He who knows that power is inborn, that he is weak because he has looked for good out of him and elsewhere, and so perceiving, throws himself unhesitatingly on his thought, instantly rights himself,
stands in the erect position, commands his limbs, works miracles; just as a man who stands on his feet is stronger than a man who stands on his head.
So use all that is called Fortune. Most men gamble with her, and gain all, and lose all,
as her wheel rolls. But do thou leave as unlawful these winnings, and deal with Cause and Effect, the chancellors of God? In the Will work and acquire, and thou hast chained the wheel of Chance, and shalt sit hereafter out of fear from her rotations.
A political victory, a rise of rents, the recovery of your sick, or the return of your absent friend, or some other favorable event, raises your spirits, and you think good days are preparing for you. Do not believe it. Nothing can bring you peace
but yourself. Nothing can bring you peace but the triumph of principles. " - Ralph Waldo Emerson.
[ Aug. 7, 2022 ] - Stainless-Steel Underground - as opposed to the Velvet Underground, right? Not Nico -
maybe Ocin? Or the Great Hole of War? IDK. Sunak must regret back-stabbing his boss, since his actions will put yet another woman in charge of a key Western nation. Maybe Ms. Truss will be a fine and good Leader. But will
she have the stone-of-scone to pull the big trigger, when it becomes necessary? Read a summary of the "Holy Illusions" note, by an economist from Rabobank. UK is in real trouble, and so is Europe. We did it exactly wrong with
Russia. We should have blocked all their exports, and blocked their harbours. They might feel that negotiation would have been a good idea. As it is now, we have no choice, but to continue to dial-up the war. For now, it is by proxy,
but this cannot last. NATO and the United Nations are really of no value, if their institutions and technologies are not deployed now.
And with Xi of China threatening to attack Taiwan, and Kishida of Japan being a soft and silly neko-chan,
all the cost of protecting the free, democratic world, falls almost entirely on the divided and angry USA.
Putin and Xi will ensure there is no Pearl Harbour - only a peril harbour. Poor Japan - when they should have been peaceful,
they were war-crazy. When they need to accept and deal with the real threat of invasion-war from China, they are peace-talkers choosing the path of non-nuclear weakness. They are a curious people, out of phase with evident reality,
and at the worst possible time in history, when being an island is of no strategic or military benefit.
Rather like the UK - facing a failing Europe and a fascist Russia - yet again - as if history has become a kind of "Ground-Hog Day".
If we are to ensure peace and resiliant operational continuity, each of us is going to have to engineer this for ourselves, privately, and on our own quiet terms of careful action. And that is possible, with the new technology. We can
let the queers, the girlboys and gaygirls have the velvet underground. Lou and Andy are long dead, but their zietgeist marches big, in the twisted mindspace of our misguided national statesmen. So curious - as if there was a careful plan to weaken
and degrade Western culture, from the inside. Many argue that this is exactly what is now happening. We are not sure, and suspect it is just the coin-toss of historical "devolution". Not every evolutionary change is positive.
Many have to be negative, and self-limiting, for the evolutionary process to actually work. The weak and the stupid and the wrong have to die off and not breed, if evolution is to track any kind of postive course of continous improvement.
This is the harsh reality of the world of life.
But you don't have to climb aboard the "B-Ark", or "Drink the Kool-aid" laced with cyanide (the popular expression for falling into a destructive pit of suicidal delusion.) If you ship is toxic
and your captain is crazy, you leave and swim for land. If your own leaders are seeking to destroy you, then you de-couple from their control process.
You can go underground - a stainless-steel kind of underground of the mind - where you
harden all your emotional, political, financial, physical and psychological defenses, and focus on the mechanics of resiliency.
Don't ride in the "B-Ark", and don't drink that deadly sweet nectar of lies and delusion.
for yourself, and do that which you know must be done. Keep your own council, but offer enlightenment to others, also, if you can. (Mostly, you will be scorned. Try anyway.) We are on our own, now, in so many ways. But we always
have been, truth be told.
What is so interesting, is that writers and thinkers like Ralph Waldo Emerson - in 1841 - was able to articulate almost *exactly* this same philosophy, in his "Essays on Self-Reliance". (It is so curious, when one
grasps and realizes a hard-won truth - which often places him outside of the ken of many others of his kin and friends - and he finds that others have discovered the same truth, and written down this clear truth, in different times, in different worlds.
[ Aug. 5th, 2022 ] - War Bonds
- Trying to get a sense of the future, here. It looks like one of rising prices, and conflict, regardless of what the Central Bankers do. Curious.
Unless the abusive militarists in Russia and China
(Putin and Xi) can be removed, and replaced with non-warmongers, then we see global conflict as being unavoidable. The only upside, is that the lead-up to the bombing may well be associated with rising markets, and improving economic circumstnaces for
[ Aug. 4th, 2022 ] - Party Like It's 2099 (or 1939...)- Well, this is interesting. The AI models have turned up, and the best one, quite sharply. And this is the funny thing about the world. It all
looks pretty damn bleak. But this is when improvements and corrections become possible. If the house five doors down, burns down after a horrible family fight, folks respond by being more kind to their partners, and buying fire extinguishers.
We remain long, not just all-in, but with a tiny bit of margined holdings, in addition to being all-in. Curious times. The new B61-12's are coming along nicely. And the F-35 problems with the ejection-seats have been resolved.
We are ready to rock-and-roll, if the need arises.
Here's that link from last year, again...
Aug. 3rd, 2022 ] - Pendejo Economics -
There is no way to say this with any sort of polite language. Lets start down south:
Argentina is a nation of fine and noble people - but their governments are made up of what appear to be
the most deeply unwise. It is a curious and interesting phenomenon, worthy of serious study. Inflation is running at roughly 60% per year, and the people - the citizens of Argentina, a lovely nation endowed with spectacularly attractive land
and fertile regions which can produce fine crops and excellent wine - are burdened with idiot-silly, foolish political leftist clowns. Never mind my opinion, take a look at this:
This - in the 21st century, in a time of crisis where we are all recovering from a nasty viral medical emergency - is insane. The Argentina government has being paying its bills - or trying to - by printing money. This is madness,
and is known to cause .... What, you ask? ... EXACTLY WHAT IS HAPPENING - INSANE, (REALLY STUPID) .. RUNAWAY INFLATION.
Dear Argentina: What the part of basic, intro "Econ 101" did your unwise clown government people not understand?
JHC, this is beyond belief. For economists like ourselves, this is like a bunch of medical doctors finding a modern nation using witchdoctors and magic spells to treat sickness - and insisting it is OK. The entire Argentina scenario
is beyond belief stupid - hard to reconcile with a modern, 21st century world. They cannot seem to learn anything at all.
The new Economics Minister guy has promised to stop doing this - and will be asking for yet another loan. Really?
It looks like the Government people are brain-dead zombie loons, who cannot think or reason with even the ability of a dog or a three-year old child. They just keep making these same mistakes, over and over and over and over, like a collective of
insane, socialist lunatics. (Or like the evil clowns from Venezuela...). We may have to just give the up, on South America. The Leftist spanish socialist government clowns need to grow the hell up and become rational adults -
because we are becoming just as badly stupid in North America as they are now, and soon, we suspect, our governments will not have sufficient resources to bail out their sorry leftist backsides from economic grief, since we seem to be electing insane people
as our leaders also.
So, you are soon going to be on your own. The IMF may soon self-destruct, as perhaps nature and the gods-of-economics will require it to do, since no one in the global room, anywhere, seems to have any economic
sanity or common sense anymore.
This seems beyond belief, truth be told. I am just losing objectivity. Maybe military fascist dictatorship is the only way forward for the South. What an awful, awful thought.
out to the Gun Club today, and played with a big .45 calibre rifle for a while. It was very soul-comforting. Big BANG, and the splatter-targets show the big hole for each round. I had made a bunch of engineering changes to the particular
rifle in question, and it worked well. So nice, when the technology works. No wonder war is so attractive to the common people - AND especially to the Officers and Generals. The political buffoons can be pushed to one side, and positive outcomes
can be created.
We predict a big conflict soon, since the world is being run by the most astonishing group of clowns and fools and criminals, that have ever walked the corridors of power, in probably all of modern human history. (Is
this really the case, or we just getting old and smart and seeing things we used to miss?) More likely, it has always been like this. People - especially Leaders, Kings, Princes, etc., are just cruel, stupid and dangerous most of the time.
It's only a good Constitution, and good luck, that saves us and/or keeps the evil criminals at bay. Sometimes.
It may be next decade, or five years from now, or next year, or next week. Wowie, zowie.... as the "Mothers of Invention"
said. But we are not done. Let's look, closer to home:
Ok, so lets look at what the clowns here are doing: Last year, on August 3rd 2021, the 2-year T-Bill in the good old USA, yielded 0.17
percent. Today - August 3rd, 2022, the yield on the 2-year is 3.10%. Get this? Dig it? Now, lets be really clear here: Last year, 2 year risk free interest rate was 0.17%, and this year, is is 3.10%. Ok?
Now, according to my simple calculations, this is a: 1723.53 % increase in the price of money. Let's be more clear. This is a One Thousand, Seven Hundred and Twenty Three point Five Three PERCENT
increase in the short-term, risk-free interest rate. Let's check the calculation: 0.17 x (1+17.2353) = 0.17 x 18.2353 = 3.10 PERCENT. Right.
Ok, so the price of MONEY - the
thing that EVERYONE USES TO GET STUFF DONE, and to GET THINGS BUILT, and so on - this has INCREASED by over one thousand, seven hundred PERCENT in one year. And this cost-of-capital price increase, is hitting a debt-heavy economy.
AND it gets better. The 10-year Treasury note rate is - today, August 3rd, 2022, - recorded a closing yield of 2.70%. Hey! That is an INVERTED YIELD CURVE which is typically associated
with tight money and a RECESSION.
So, we have two quarters of negative GDP in the good old USA, and also, a seriously inverted yield curve - and yet the SILLY CRAP-FOR-BRAINS FUMBDUCKS (oh, like White House skanks, and
some guy named Krugman - a lefty runt who should bloody well know better) are insisting that the good old USA is not in a recession. WTF? Of course it is. But it might be short and not too serious. Unless your are all stupid.
We don't care about semantics. But deceptive, arrogant, smart-arsed leftist liars just drive us crazy.
Dear USA Democrats - COULD YOU PLEASE STOP LYING ABOUT ECONOMICS?
And could you folks at the Federal Reserve,
please try not to be stupid?
I don't want to see my world wrecked by these fraudster Leftist buffoons, idiots and fools.
Recognize, that the good old USA, has just been hit with the MOTHER OF ALL PRICE INCREASES - VASTLY
GREATER THAN WHAT THE USA CENTRAL BANKERS DID BACK IN 1929, to provoke the October 1929 Stock Market Crash. (Rates were popped from 4% to 6%. Given the insane leverage in the market, that was enough.) Take a little note of this, and recognize
that you need to pause, and see just what this 17 hundred percent price increase in the price of money, is going to do to your domestic economy.
Please grasp the idea that big changes in critical factor prices in a complex economy,
can have EXTREMELY non-linear results. This might be one of these times.
And take note of that INVERTED YIELD CURVE. It is honestly telling you something. Something real.
Your economic models are wrong.
All models are basically wrong, because THEY ARE MODELS, they are not reality. The kids sometimes forget this. Right?
I don't want to see my world blown to hell because everyone seems to be acting brain-dead. Of course
inflation needs to be hammered down. But is the inflation all coming from too much demand? Are you sure? Please, be careful.
I am not the only one feeling this curious frustration...
The policy-people and the politicians have to stop doing so much profound damage. Just stop. It is getting seriously out of hand. These political clowns are at risk of blowing up not just the US Treasury, but the entire USA economy - and
maybe the world economy also. We can look thru history and see what generally happens, when the Kings, Princes and Leaders do this sort of mindless reactive madness. We typically crash into unnecessary - and now maybe world-wrecking - war.
The leaders of the world have got to back off, and start focusing on STABILITY SEEKING STRATEGIES because otherwise, we are at real risk of a phase-jump to several possible kinds of self-destruction. I am not the only one saying
this. It's in the math, sitting there for all to see.
[ Aug. 1st, 2022 ] - Junxit deceptio mors non separabit. - "Death will not separate, that which is by delusion joined."
This is my update on the inscription in the famous Masonic golden ring.
It describes the true nature of much of human political action.
We have watched in astonishment, as the Democrats in USA, and the Leftist "Liberals" in Canada,
have made such curious and extreme efforts to lie to their public, and use outright deception as a political toolset. Trump - even with his lies - was "truthier" than this new crop of angry clowns.
It's weird, dangerous and problematic.
The "main-stream media (MSM)" is partly to blame, but the blame also resides within each human soul. People hear and see what they want to hear and see - their biased judgements are suspect, even at the best of times. Objectivity is something
that is difficult to maintain, yet still remains of greatest importance.
Without at least a desire and a commitment to attempt to "live in truth", there is no life at all - only a temporary bio-process that is limited and will - with certainty
- end and fail, and be of no value to anyone or anything.
It is the truth of our ideas and of our ideals that matter most. This really is the whole message of life itself. We can understand this as the key. In a Latin inscription:
"Junxit veritas mors non separabit" - "What is joined with truth, cannot be separated by death." Even Death cannot kill the Truth. But we can, if we fail to honour truth. If we break this link, the World
This is what is playing out in Ukraine right now - an astonishing and loathsome attempt by Putin's gangster militarists, to destroy the very idea of Ukrainian national identity, and reduce the country of Ukraine to a vassal-state of
Russian subjects, in a no-longer-free Russia which is now dominated by a man who uses targeted assassination and mass-murder as a political strategy.
This is murder-crime of the very worst kind. It is the most ugly and offensive political
action, since the actions of German National Socialist leader, Adolf Hitler, and of course, bears great resemblance to what that monster-criminal, Joseph Stalin also tried to do.
These people - Hitler and Stalin - perhaps honestly believed that mass-murder
and what we now call war-crimes, could be justified. But the World must retain it's hard-won knowledge. It must be joined in virtue to the memory and the truth of what criminal sadists and evil persons, these two leaders were.
Putin - like
an evil little toy soldier - follows in their footsteps, and beats on their same drums of deep dishonesty. Either we are joined by virtue to what is true, and we oppose this, or we are absolute and perfect failures
as living creatures, having separated ourselves from the truth and from the very idea of virtue.
[ July 31, 2022 ] - Pierre Poilievre - the Next Canadian Prime Minister
Just learned this. Really - we do so
much international work, I have shamefully neglected my own balliwick. Time to fix this:
This guy, Poilievre, will be our next Leader.
Count on it.
[ July 31, 2022 ] - Is Justin Trudeau Clinically Insane? - We are starting to feel like we are crew on that ship run by Captain Queeg, played by the great Humphry Bogart in the film "The Caine Mutiny".
Except our captain is Justin Trudeau, who more and more is looking like he seriously might be clinically insane. We honestly
question whether he is competent to be acting in the role of Canada's Prime Minister.
We just learned that the strange "Liberal" Government in Ottawa, is proposing to initiate a *mandatory* buy-back of all existing, and now *prohibitied* AR-15
rifles AND we also understand that all purchases and sales of handguns will be banned in Canada, by these same Ottawa clowns. This is an absurd and profoundly unwise action, being taken by someone we think might actually be mentally unfit to govern.
This is serious. The information that is flowing out from the Ottawa dis-information machinery is quite frightening, and - most disturbing - is profoundly inaccurate. It's really nasty. And it is just so misleading.
The Liberals have
to be removed from power in Canada. This is now a priority. I am surprised that Justin Trudeau is being so unwise and foolish, as to attack such a large, honest and law-following group of citizens. It is ugly, dishonest and abusive
politics, being done by dangerous lightweights, who hope to score points with the ignorant and uninformed.
The Liberals are using the actions of an insane, violent mass-killer in Nova Scotia, that "Wortman" person, who used an *illegal*, unlicensed
firearm to kill people, as he drove around the province in a fake RCMP police car. It was the tragic, horrific actions of a madman. And a madman who DID NOT HAVE a firearms licence, and obtained his weapon illegally.
and his cronies are implying that the actions of this criminal, using an illegally acquired firearm, and pretending to be a police office, somehow reflects on lawful, patriotic Canadians, who are interested in carefully and legally engaging in the shooting
sports. His fundamental argument that firearms ownership is a "public safety issue" is manifestly false, and he cannot be so stupid, as not to know the truth of this.
That makes him a dishonest and abusive fraudster, and such a person is
a serious threat to the Canadian Federation. Many people in Canada have lost confidence in this man, and feel he is unfit to govern, even those who at one time supported him. His idiotic assault on firearms owners - probably the most law-abiding
and careful folks in the country - every one of whom is documented, photo-IDed, and licensed by the RCMP - is either fraud, or madness. Or perhaps it is a bit of both.
We live in sad and serious times. What worries us most, is that
this little man, is also quite possibly actually insane, in a real and clinically confirmable manner. There is evidence he is profoundly unfit to be in any position of authority - much less acting as the prime Government authority figure.
We are not alone in our assessment of this. Justin Trudeau is an angry man, with serious emotional problems, and there is mounting evidence that he is emotionally unfit for his current role.
Emotional Complexity (historical):
Trudeau, early on (6 years ago), actually confessed to mental instability and serious "anger" issues, in a meeting of senior advisors. This was reported by sympathetic news-reporters as simply his "emtional
complexity". This was six years ago. We see evidence of this becoming more serious now, and more than just "emotional complexity":
The Covid-19 Policies of Trudeau's Regime:
The National Post and it's reporters, (and many others) characterized the Trudeau Covid-19 policies as "madness" (Trudeau was one of the first people to actually bring
Covid to Canada, if people can recall):
Trump's Take on Trudeau...:
Regardless of what one thinks about former US President Trump, he was known for plain speech. And he often called it clearly, as he saw it. He called Trudeau with some accuracy:
do Members of the European Parliament Think of Trudeau?:
Members of the European Parliament have a similar view to Mr. Trudeau, as did former President Trump. Trudeau spoke to the European Parliament bragging about the "tools we have
at our disposal" (much like Vladimir Putin has engineered his "tools" for the disposal of Ukraine), and a few European Parliamentarians recognized the kind of speech they had heard before, and spoke in clear language of their revulsion and disgust with Justin
What People of Courage and Action, Think of Trudeau:
People who have historical perspective,
deeply detest Trudeau for his pro-terrorist policies:
In the House of Commons - Canada's Parliament:
Trudeau was loudly "booed" in Canada's House of Commons, for saying to a Jewish Member of Parliament, that she was a person who "supported swastika's". This was not only rude and ugly, but
it was just plain crazy-stupid wrong. It was something a truly crazy person would say:
Australian Views on Trudeau:
A reporter from Australian Sky News, described Justin Trudeau's actions as "insane" back in February of this year:
Toronto Take on Trudeau (A Town of Liberals):
Another reporter for a Toronto newspaper, suggested, back in 2021, that "Justin Trudeau is playing with a whole heap of crazy."
The people of Canada - more than 50% - want this fellow to be GONE. There is a LOT of evidence of this fact, but of course, given the current support the NDP offers the MINORITY Liberal "Government", there is nothing we the people of Canada, can do
about this problem, until election time.
The People of Canada's View of Trudeau:
Now, lets be very, very clear here. I am not attacking Justin Trudeau's mother. I am just a simple analyst, gathering facts. We honestly have some real concern, that Justin Trudeau is becoming unhinged, and unwell, and needs to be
removed from his position of power. He is just riding the lie-machine too often, and it is now reaching out and hitting us here, where we live.
So, lets be clear. His mom was *very* unstable, with *serious* mental health problems.
She has been honest about this, and written it down in books. We feel Canada is too important a social experiment, and the Canadian Federation - which has a long and valuable tradition of freedom - real freedom, not phony fake paper-freedom of the Leftists
fraudsters - is at risk.
His mom was mentally unstable, and we suspect that he is also. The man needs to step down. Any good clinical doctor or psychological specialist, will admit that madness and mental illness which
provokes bad behaviour, runs in families. There is real, solid, hard evidence of this:
The more we dig into this,
the more serious it looks.
Listen to the sort of absurd, dishonest nonsense this fellow tried to retail, when legitimate protestors came to Ottawa to air their concerns. Listen to what Justin Trudeau said, in his OWN VIDEO
I started this analysis as someone who was not really
a believer in the "Justin Trudeau is clinically insane" viewpoint. I thought Trudeau was just going into a kind of full-Putin mode, and had simply decided to try to take down some marginal citizen-voter folks who his own unwise political people probably
said didn't vote for him anyway. Except, like Putin, we used to have some real sympathy for Trudeau. If he did not attack us too directly, we were willing to give him the benefit of the doubt.
But then, he decided that us quiet, private-sector
farmer-folks - we were some kind of *enemy to Canada*, and our first, honest, intial reaction, was simply: "This is just f*cking insane! This sounds like what Hitler did in Germany, in the 1930's!" And see, because of our economic
research, we actually know a fair bit about this interesting time period. For Liberals, this timeperiod and place, was a real object of study. Stephan Dion's father actually did his thesis on the interesting political phenomenon of Germany in the
1930's. (Dion was a Liberal leader, and failed Prime Minister candidate.) Our interest has been on the economics of the whole process, and we have studied how Schact worked his magic to end the hyperinflation. But the politics is really
where the meat is. It was such a terrifying and effective social and economic experiment, like the world has rarely seen.
So, the thought has occured, perhaps ... OMG, what if Justin Trudeau really is actually, truly insane? Maybe full-on
paranoid/delusional... Is this possible?
And as we set out to investigate this - we learned there honestly is a pattern. The man is over-the-top unwise, and it now looks like he is being controlled by some curiously
dark forces. But these dark forces might be inside his own mind. You don't even need to propose a "conspiracy theory", if you realize your subject is clinically mentally ill.
There is nothing we, as powerless average citizens, can
do about this, until the next election, sadly. And the election has been prevented, by the "national" socialists of the NDP, signing an agreement with the Ottawa Liberals. Birds of a common feather, of course. (yikes...)
there WILL be an election at some point. And there WILL be a reckoning. The man is both not wanted, and we fear, he is bordering on crazy-dangerous, rather like Mr. Putin of the Russian Federation.
Until the next election, we
will have to try to stay strong. This crazy guy looks like he may be quite dangerous, and we had all better "stand on guard", as the words to our national anthem suggest is indicated during times of crisis.
We suspect efforts at mass
confiscation of firearms will create a result similar to alcohol prohibition efforts - a significant increase in crime and criminal activity. Trudeau and his gang are being completely insane, to a degree we thought would not occur.
It's Worse Down South!
And finally, from the "It could be Worse.." file: It is getting *really* weird in the USA. The Biden folks are proposing an "Inflation Reduction Act" which will include a whole bunch of new taxes,
and over $300 billion of new "credits" for wind-turbines and solar panels. WTF? Can you drive to work, using a "Wind Turbine"? Biden and his handlers are *insane*. And the Wharton school at Univ. of Pennsylvania, have run the new spending
from the proposed "Inflation Reduction Act" thru their USA economic model, and said that this legislation will *increase* inflation. Really. And Biden has said: "The USA in not in recession", except we have just had two negative quarters of GDP
growth, which is the technical definition of a recession.
So, without question.. the USA is even MORE INSANE that Trudeau and his gang, appear to be. And understand - I am not making anything up here. Our world leaders are inside some kind
of deeply self-delusional information filter-bubble. Take a look, don't just trust us:
[ July 30, 2022 ] - Patterns of the
Wild - Yes, indeed. And, when one can learn to read them, all becomes possible.
The theme-song for chaos researchers,
market-hackers, designers of advanced targeting software, and those who ran "hydrosims" at LANL, back in the old days... Very good song. Short, sharp and most creative, insightful lyrics, with evident hard-core acoustical poetry, on fine display.
We must do much more, than just to estimate Lyapunov Exponents, and determine embedding dimension. We must pilot our lifecraft thru the roaring, bucking chaos, like a weapon's flying arrowhead.
[ July 29, 2022 ] - The Silence of the
Neutrons - Some guy even has a Hedge Fund, named "Deuterium ...", which I thought was pretty funny. We messed around with IEC Fusors, ran some fusion experiments that were successful, but found more profit in building Artificial Intelligence
(AI) machines, to predict market action. Curious, how technical developments tend to track similar, among different groups. Good name for a Hedge Fund. We hope the electricity-producing fusion reactors will eventually be developed.
The AI market forecast has turned up, and we are getting hard confirmation of our theory related to improvements in rate-of-return on capital driving market pricing improvements. We expect the markets to continue to track upwards, as interest-rates
are normalized. The recent economic stimulation experiments due to Covid-19 pandemic, have had these extreme asymetries, which are now - essentially - being addressed. Sanity is returning.
We just need to begin the bombing campaign
in - and against - Russia. We hope it can start soon. The Ukrainians are prevented from launching attacks into Russia, while Russian cruise missiles are raining down on their hospitals, schools, shopping centres, and grain warehouses.
This is completely and absurdly insane. All Russian military bases should be destroyed - and it should happen over a weekend - with whatever weapons are available. The explicit statement must also be made, that Moscow and St. Petersburg will
be destroyed, if Russia uses any nuclear weapons of any kind, anywhere.
One has to speak to the Russians in their own language, and this is, of course, the language of violence, terror and conquest. They are what they are.
And right now, they are the greatest problem the World is now facing. One way or another, we will have to face this problem, and deal with it.
It's sad, that the World must likely now track forward into mass-violence again. War is
bad. But the abusive and insane actions of Putin and his henchmen, offer us no real choice. Sanctions are quite silly, wasteful, and most of all, profoundly ineffective. They in fact aid dictators and criminals in their missions of social
control, and as such, should be avoided. The "Ron Reagan Methodology" - a directed missile attack explicitly against the murderous dictator's houses and homes (cf. Gadaffi of Libya, after the Pan-Am bombing over Scotland), is a vastly better strategy,
and much more likely to yield behaviour-change. These days, the World - and it's leaders - is becoming stupid. We need to correct this.
We did not *negotiate* with Al Quida, and/or Osama Bin Laden. We hunted him down,
and ensured he was ended. This is the strategy that needs to be taken, when a mass-murderer begins his projects to destroy cities.
We ended Bin Laden. We didn't just cancel his VISA cards. Similar action is
required now, with the current crop of city-killers, and murderers-of-the-innocent.
[ July 28, 2022 ] - Private-Sector Nuclear Weapons? - I remember this tune - Tom Lehrer's clever song about "World War III"... Pretty funny,
actually. And of course, it is on Youtube. How about that! And it could have been written last week...
And if that does
not sum it up, have a look at what Mr. Market is doing.. And guess what? The AI turned up last nite, after yesterday's data update. I thought to myself: "Really?... Really??". We have had this theory about investment-action
"normalization", and the curious lovely action that occurs when the old-fashioned rate-of-return on capital, starts to move in a healthy, positive direction. And there it goes. The doom-pedlars are ripping their hair out, and gnashing their tiny
little pointed teeth. It's kind of strange and curious to watch it play out.
See, there is all this most astonishing drivel on the "big internet". So much that is written is just wild-arsed wrong. It is wrong and wrong -- and
then wrong again. But it seems to be a product that can be sold, like fertilizer for the rosebuds of the world. (Remember "Citizen Kane"? "Rosebud... Rosebud..." his last words at death? Was supposed to be a snow-sleigh...
But "rosebud" is American slang, for arse-hole. No one talked about that, in my film course...)
There is so much poop and stinking-slime-stuff that sloshes around on the 'net, now, it is almost a textbook picture of how awful human-awfulness can
be. I read today about some poor young bastard who was on a little vacay in Greece, and he took a helicopter ride, and managed to walk into the rear propeller blades. SO damn sad and awful - he was on his stupid-phone chatting, apparently, and
it was dark..
And his sister has had to post stuff to ask people to stop hate-posting on him for being a rich, helicopter-riding rich-boy - since he was not, and this was actually even his first helicopter ride.
I remember my first heli-ride.
It was a small two-seater, one of those bubble-front choppers they used in Korean War, like in MASH TV series. I was a tiny kid, and sat on my dad's knee, without a seatbelt, (and no doors on the thing!) and the pilot, my father, and me,
lept into the air and flew around a fair-ground in our small city. I thought it was the coolest thing we had ever done. Helicopters are just great. But don't walk into the damn blades, eh? Poor guy...
But the world
is silly, and is run by deeply unwise folks, who are selfish, nasty and really, really dangerous mother-killers and child-shredders. That's just the truth of things. Even the "good" Christians would happily abuse and murder kids - like the lonely
little Indian kids in Residential Schools, who probably had to provide cocksucking-service to the Catholic Priests and "lay-fathers" who ran the Indian schools. The Pope apologized for this, and Cdn taxpayers have paid off some of the remaining adults
who suffered the abuse as children. But they are finding all these unmarked graves of the Indian kids who died at these schools. Sad all around. Putting the Catholic Church in charge of teaching children is maybe not the best
plan, given the sex-crazed weirdness and appetite for cruelty and abuse, that has characterized so much of Catholic history. It's just a fact of history, and you simply cannot deny it. Catholics like to hurt people. They seem to like
it a lot. Hell, most folks do. It's a sad, bad world.
No one expected the "Spanish Inquisition" in Canada. Just as Monty Python so eloquently informed us as kids back in the 1970's... no one actually expects the Spanish
Inquisition. But it seems to crop up like clockwork - most recently in Kyiv suburbs, for Christ's sakes. Truly insane.
And no one expects World War III, just yet. But we are thinking actually, that Ackman is probably right, and
it has probably already started. Each side will refrain from using it's nuclear weapons, just like each side, in World War II, did not use it's stockpiles of poison gas.
No on talks about this. England and USA did not use poison
gas. And even Hitler did not use poison gas - except on Jews, who had been disarmed, and put into gas-chambers. And it was other Jews that actually ran that operation, which was genius - like Putin is now using Russian kids to kill Ukrainian
kids. How fucking awful is this? If you put all this insane cruelty into a fiction book, people would dismiss it as too far-fetched and silly-awful. But this is what humans like to do. History teaches us this - over and over, it seems.
People can be astonishingly awful creatures, brain-dead and cruel in the most astonishing ways.
So, don't feel too surprised or sad, as the private-sector boys begin to become the war-fighters. With the nasty and sadistic "Wagner
Group" from Russia, Putin has already begun this new trend. And like any good trend, it will likely continue. Right to it's logical conclusion.
[ July 27, 2022 ] - Give War a Chance - Really. We are moving
towards the time when this will have to happen.
The Ukrainians are fighting the most astonishingly pure evil. The asinine stupid
cruelty of Putin's murder campaign is beyond anything rational or acceptable. It is tragic, vicious gangster-style theft - of land, of grain, and of human life. Putin is a criminal, who must be brought to justice.
For now, the
Ukrainians fight. And bury their dead.
Vladimir Putin is a murderer. Sanctions are not enough.
We've been beating on our brains, to answer: "How we can defeat a giant mass-murder nation like Russia?" This is hard question, and implies a very difficult project,
to say the least.
But we have come up with an idea. :)
[ July 26, 2022 ] - Warren Piece - I read yesterday the absurd and unmitigated horseshit that US Senator Elizabeth Warren wrote in the Wall Street Journal.
(Yes, you can *mitigate* horseshit. We do in on the roads around here in Mennonite Country all the time, since we have a lot of horse-drawn wagon traffic..)
Warren herself shit all over Jerome Powell for actually nothing more than that the man
is trying to do his job. Warren should be ashamed of being such a stupid runt, but of course, we know that she is actually very proud of this fact, and lets the world know about this, regularly. I don't understand how American voters can
be so barking crazy as to put a goofus like that in a position of political power. It boggles the mind.
Anyway - crazy Ms. Warren has even managed to provoke the disgust and ire of old Larry Summers, the Clinton Treasury guy, who is a smart, honest
and sensible person. He knows just how terrible, bad and awful inflation can be. It is economic cancer of the worst kind - and it was made possible by the irresponsible stupid actions of clowns like Elizabeth Warren and the other brain-dead politicals
who seem to be driving US fiscal policy. They blow up the "fisc", and when the rational economic agents of the good old USA respond accordingly, the Washington twits lash out at the civil authorities who are trying to clean up the hot mess the political
fools have caused.
Even the "Editorial Board" at the WSJ has felt it has to comment on how completely idiotic this all is. Powell is between a big, hard nasty rock, and a very, very hard place. He and the US Federal Reserve have very
little wiggle room now, and they will have to trigger a *growth pause* (or an ugly downturn), in order to try to contain the damage the Democrat irresponsible fiscal policy has caused.
The Fed has basically no choice - unless it wants to simply
not do it's job, which would be really very insane.
We concur with the "E-Board" of the WSJ. We are in an economic mess. I am pretty sure we will rocket out of it, much faster than folks think, once we begin bombing Russia. And we honestly believe, that there will be little choice, but
to do this. If the stupid nation-states don't do it, then the private sector of the world will sadly have to begin to take action. The gangsters running Russia are insane and have become murder-crazy, out-of-control criminals. It is
worse than Afghanistan.
This world cannot tolerate an entire nuclear-armed nation of criminal thieves and rapists, running rampant across the world. We will *all* be at war with the Russian Federation, sooner or later. And although
we may lose a few cities, and have to endure a man-made fix to the problem of "global warming", we are pretty sure that this is in our future. We expect the war to be short, sharp and successful. And we are now certain it is necessary.
Once the "Russia Problem" is cleaned up, there will be an economic take-off, the likes of which the world has never seen. By then, it will be too late to obtain attractive equity positions. You want to buy now, when the blood is still running
in Ukrainian streets.
(Orban of Hungary is wrong, also, we believe. We all have much work to do. With or without NATO.)
[ July 25, 2022 ] - Hanoi Shan, Vladimir Putin, & The World Crime Syndicate - Maybe
it's not a Phillip K. Dick novel - maybe it's another episode in the "Buckaroo Banzai" saga... that one we never got to see? We are living in it, instead of watching it. What's going on now, is madness. It's classical, over-the-top
crazy madness, and we suspect the time is coming, where we will *all* have to start hammering those plowshares into B61's. (The B61 is not an aircraft. But it uses aircraft...)
Building B61-series-12's, is not madness. It is
a very good thing, and offers a local antidote to the actions of the madmen and their new World Crime collective. The FPU (First Production Unit) has already been delivered, and the LEP (Lifetime Extension Program) which will add another 20 years of
service life to this most fine device, is now underway and in production. This is a big milestone, as LANL reports. Good for LANL. And good for USA and for NATO.
Pantex folks and the clever boffins at LANL have given us the 12th generation of the B61, a truly fine and wonderful device for the continued maintenace of World Peace. We have been doing research on a theory - and found more confirming evidence for
it again, in research on the excellent work of the Los Alamos lab, and the Sandia folks. The B61 nuclear device was first developed in 1968 - in the same decade as the extreme technological phase-leap of the fine USA space program. Interesting
times. Wonderful leaps were made. There are films-as-videos of the 1965 XB-70 project, which was essentially the test-bed for the Space Shuttle (now a museum-relic..). Such a curious time of technological lift-off.
The latest upgrade
(version 12) of the genius-designed, beautiful-contructed B61, reduces the megaton yield, but improves it's accuracy. It's so nice how the F-35 can carry and deliver this special package of our-fine-freedom to the very bad people
of the world - of which there suddenly seems to be a distrubing new cohort.
Fortunately, we are already ramping up to produce F-35's "like sausages". The aircraft is expensive - but it can do amazing things, and can virtually turn
invisible to old-style radar. And it can put a B61 nuke right down onto Putin's house, if it has to. Right off your toilet, eh, Valdimir? And you and your henchmen, into a bunch of small particles and hot plasma. I am sure
It is very important that Russia stand-down from it's idiotic and absurd murder-mission in Ukraine, and that all the Russian military gangsters be removed completely from Ukrainian lands. No one wants to see these fine B61-12's get delivered to military
sites in Russia. Peace is so much a better idea than war.
But no one anywhere, anyway, wants to live as a Russian slave. And this "live as one of Putin's slaves" is the only choice Russian forces are offering.
The entire insane war violates explicit agreements that were made in 1994. This makes Russia's action illegal. And it also makes Russia - in a very real and formal sense - a "state sponsor of terrorism."
of what Europe does - they are good at talking - at some point, we are going to have to role up our sleaves, and fix this insane madness that Russia has unleashed on the World. Everything the Russians say now, appears to be fabricated falsehoods
- lies so big and over-the-top, that one has to honestly have doubts about the sanity of most of it's current leaders.
Putin thinks the West is weak and stupid. It kind of was, yes. The whole idea of the "Western World" had almost gone away.
NATO seemed a relic of the past, with no real future, and no enemy. Russia was our ally and our trading partner. Putin, in his degraded mental state (we truly believe he is mentally unbalanced), has chosen to throw all this
away, and initiate an insane blitzkreig war against a peaceful, trading-nation neighbour, in hopes - again, like Stalin did - of stealing it's food-producing ability. His actions have caused mass-murder, mass-destruction, and will (this
winter), likely cause famine & starvation - especially in Africa.
None of us thought he would do something so perfectly cruel and absurdly evil as this idiotic war. We all had a good and working peace - beneficial for everyone.
But the atrocity of Russian actions, has completely changed the thinking of a *lot* of people. The actions of this profoundly evil man, have changed the dynamics of the World, and has made it clear, that we must now begin to seriously prepare
for war. Astonishing.
History has shown us repeatedly, with horrific clarity, the foolishness of trusting megalomaniacs who violate international agreements and choose instead to murder whole cities of the innocent. What Putin
is doing now, is not new. It is nothing new. Except for one thing...
We all now know it. And we know what must be done.
[ July 23, 2022 ] - Fun with Dick and Gain - We found an
article from February, 1972, about Phillip K. Dick deciding to move to Vancouver, from California. His comments on human-nature, and our android-future, were interesting. We've been researching the 1970's, and made this comment:
from February, 1972! Very nice. Thanx for posting this on
your site. P. K. Dick wrote "Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep", the
novel which became "BladeRunner". Interesting how the science-fiction
writers saw our future.
Here we are in 2022, and the wars are beginning,
- both cultural and real.
Our little analysis enterprise is concerned that we might be on the cusp
of a really nasty economic downturn, rather like the 1930 to 1932 time
We are researching the economics of the 1970's. Mr. Dick could
see the future - as well as write good stories about it. The 1970's were a
time of very great change - most of it bad.
Nixon took USA off the gold standard in 1971,
because he could not pay
for the Vietnam War, while maintaining any sort of currency link to gold.
This, combined with the 1973 "Arab Oil Shock" (where gasoline prices
doubled, and then doubled again), resulted in a massive inflation, high
unemployment, and reduced economic growth. Paul Volker eventually
ended the inflation-run, by raising interest rates over 20%, and this
destroyed over-leveraged businesses and indebted households, but
economic sanity was restored.
In the 1980's - with Ron Reagan's
"Star Wars" projects (to make nuclear-weapon missiles obsolete) and
a 40-year reduction in interest-rates down to below zero, gave us all
the greatest economic boom the world has ever seen in all of human
Then we got the coronavirus plague, the mRNA vaccines, and here we
are now, up to our global eyebrows in debt, and now ramping rates up
to "fight inflation" - by raising everyone's debt-service costs, while also
Russia out of the global transactional economy. This could harm
us all, we worry, in a number of curious ways.
We are thinking that Phillip K. Dick might have written this story we are
now thrashing around within.
It feels a bit like it.
We don't have moon-rockets or even Space Shuttles - and if not for
Elon Musk, we would not have any spaceships at all.
NASA dropped the ball, and USA is turning inward to fight with
like an octopus eating it's own arms. They fight about the "right"
for women to kill their own unborn children. Is this not madness?
And the Federal Reserve will now *raise* everyone's debt-service costs,
so as to fight rising
prices. Can this possibly work? It reminds us of
that comment from the 1970's about the Vietnam War: "Fighting for
peace, is like fucking for virginity."
We look at our world now, and think: "Our leaders don't know
[ July 22, 2022 ] - A Surfeit of Twos - We seem to be drifting off course, it feels like. It is possible that Samuel Johnson was right. It is probably foolish and absurd in the extreme, to write without being paid
for it. I recall reading "Rassalas" - as a storybook essay in a book I found on the road, on Jarvis Street, outside a collegiate. Amazing good story - Johnson wrote it in less than a month, in 1759, because he needed the money. It's
a somewhat picaresque adventure, except the hero and his Princess are mostly just curious. They leave "Happy Valley" because they wish to know the wider world - much as the Buddha did. They encounter the "Astronomer." And they talk
about how the Astronomer became afflicted with a debilitating ailment, where he came to believe his monitoring of the motions of the Sun, the Moon, and the Stars in the heavens, were necessary, and if he failed to rise and document their actions, they would
not move. His madness was curious, and almost fatal, yet - like Nash, he fought his way back to sanity, and thru his interactions with people, cured himself of his absurd fears, and his burdensome sense of responsibility.
That Johnson could even
articulate something so curious, is impressive. He is remembered for his "Dictionary", and for Boswell's biography of him. But his greatest triumph was "Rassalas", in my opinion. He even describes, in the storyline, the mechanism by
which heavier-than-air vehicles will one day be created. (See: " Chapter VI - A Dissertation on the Art of Flying")
In some ways, "Rassalas" is perhaps the first science-fiction story. It reminds me a bit of "Ringworld", and those great 5-syllable names. The Prince does not actually build an air-craft to escape his "Happy Valley", but he might of.
But far more interesting, is Johnson's portrait of the formerly-mad Astronomer. Science is to some degree, like wizardry. To be a scientist, is to be a bit like Faust. You want to take command of the Forces of Nature, and make
them do your bidding.
And, to some degree, you can. That's what lets the madness begin to come in. The "Mad Scientist" of fiction, is not completely a false-stereotype. Such folks do exist - researchers who have lost objectivity,
and have become obsessed, and now behave badly.
When one gains and possesses power, it must be used wisely, or great tragedy can result. We all know this - but the knowing about it, and the acting upon that knowledge, can be two different
This binary conflict - knowing what must be done - and then taking action to DO IT - this binary nature, this "tyranny of the two", can affect any one of us. We can see the first, yet fail to act on the second.
This is a most serious and dangerous kind of: "non-binary". If we know - we must act. The binary action is required. Knowledge must be translated into action, lest we be like Hamlet, and allow the opportunity to correct a crime,
to slip away.
[ July 21, 2022 ] - Strength Thru Joy (in Georgia) - Maybe in Asia "Georgia" also? St. George fought - and killed - the evil dragon. "Georgia" is in every culture. One would think maybe the
metaphor implies a conflict with China (dragons and all). But now we find, that our evil "dragon" that must be slain, resides in Moscow. World is always offering suprises, isn't it...
[ July 20, 2022 ] - Bootleg Turn -
We did stupid stuff as teenagers... mostly with cars. I recall practicing "Bootleg Turns", where you take your Mom's high-performance car, zoom down a darkened, empty highway, cut the wheel over while simultaneously hitting the emergency brake to lock
up the rear wheels. We saw this on TV or on a movie or something... The idea was that you could execute a fast 180-dgree turn, if being chased, and spin your vehicle around to point in the opposite direction, within just the two-lane blacktop road width.
Apparently the "Bootleggers" in the US South did this, when being chased by "Revenue Police", according to urban-legend. (Canadian kids had a curious respect and admiration for the culture of the Southern USA - minus the racism, of course... since
we all seemed to like the Blues also...) We were pretty crazy, truth be told.
An old friend who has converted all his music collection to MP3's, gave me a Neil Young CD. It's called "Harvest Moon". It's pretty good.
My favourite song on it, is about an guy and his old hound-dog named King, who had no fear. Very much a Canadian kind of song - but it also sounds right out of Deep South, USA. (We love USA, lets be clear on this, eh?)
The title track, "Harvest Moon", has a nice video on *tube. At time-index 3:55, you can see King jump out of a parked pickup truck. :D
Nice music from less crazy times. But now, these wild, rapid 180-degree full turns, seem to be pretty common in our modern markets. We have theories (related to the tripwire nature of the machine-algorithms that are used now to harvest funds
from the market-players), but no one really knows exactly why markets are so wild twitchy now.
What we know, is that the V-bottom - at least on a short term basis - still remains in fashion. And the algos have to obviously "gun for stops", if
they are going to work, short term. And they do work, which is fine, since it makes some market action predictable, much more than it really should be.
I honestly think one has to be a bit crazy, to try to trade this current environment.
It's like warfare - lots of fun and excitement, until you get shot in the leg, or your hand, or your head. Then, you are ruined, and learn fast that warfare is pretty much a rather stupid & terrible thing, full of pain and worthless death.
You watch good friends and trusted comrades get splattered or torn to bits by a shell, and there is just nothing good at all about the experience. And the folks on Train "Cargo 200", don't even get to learn anything at all - they take home nothing
but their own dead flesh, which is little use to anyone, except to offer closure to grieving families.
We are *very* cautious traders/investors. We have to be, so we don't get whacked and ruined, which is what this kind of market can do.
The great monetary stimulus is going to run in reverse now, for a while. And rates will drift up to normal levels. This must happen, and most certainly will create a whole raft of opportunities - but it may ruin a few folks also.
Lots and lots of trades are very crowded now, and wild swings are needed to clean out the bad and the foolish.
I dropped into a Ford dealer yesterday. They had a single new "Black Diamond" Bronco on the lot. It was a "Demo", and could not
be bought. It's $60K Cdn, once another one comes in which can be bought, which is a bit silly. It was a black-top convertible. There are shortages of units with hardtops. This is not the crappy little "Bronco Sport", this is the
full-frame, full-sized unit, with big-tires and fender skirts to catch the gravel and mud. It sports a 2.3 litre engine, which makes it smaller displacement than our 2.5 litre 4x4 Honda CRV (which is made in Canada). My F-150,
with the 5-litre V8 is a bigger unit, but it costs me $200 in petrol, to run up north and back, now. It's over $250 to fill the tank. This is insane.
The Ford Bronco (the big one, with the proper frame), is a win, in our opinion. Ford
is making an F-150 "Raptor", which retails for $109,000 US dollars, apparently, although this number might be wrong. I read it on some internet site, so it might be bogus. This price also seems insane.
But these are insane times.
I remember, maybe 14 or 15 years ago, trading BAC, and in one trade, made half the price of my old, previous F-150. If you want to run a farm in Canada, you must have some non-farm sources of income, since farming is not a huge cash generating business-model,
typically. I think I paid $12K for a used 2005 F-150. And of course it was trading bank-stocks that provided roughly half the needed cash.
So, by this metric, I should be able to make $30K in a single trade to fund half a Bronco?
Somehow, I seriously doubt that this is possible, without taking on the old Gambler's Risk-of-Ruin. And there is no Lehman Bros., anymore. I actually did some work for those boys and girls, early on. Such a curious world.
The dreams (and nightmares) of an older fellow, are the memories of his younger days... :)
UPdate: Here is a paper we just read. Stock returns data from 1963 to 2020, is compared to T-Bill returns. Controlling for all the usual
factors, 500 biggest stocks beat T-bill returns by about 4% per year. Make it 1000 biggest stocks, and it still works. But pull out the best 3 years, and the execess returns over T-bills drops to less than 2%. This paper is by a clever
fellow in Edmonton, working for a "Frontier" operation. The .PDF can be downloaded and read, only 13 pages. Nice piece of research, which contradicts more of the usual academic blather. :)
Stock investing works, and it works - consistantly - better than buying Government bonds.
But watch out for those "Bootleg-Turns"!
[ July 19, 2022 ] - Sunset Curve - Take some time to consider the "Phillips Curve". Original
work by New Zealand Economist Dr. William Phillips, which was detailed in a 1958 article, using mostly 19th century English data. He later updated the research using 20th century data up to 1948, which purported to show the relationship between
changes (increases) in money wages, and the change (decreases) in unemployment rate. The idea is that rising money wages (not real wages), leads to, or at least co-relates with reduction in national unemployment rate. This was shown to be
the case, in 1920-24 Germany's experiment with deliberate hyperinflation. It *sort-of* seemed to be the case with Canada's inflation experience in the 1960's, but did not seem to hold during the 1973-1980 "Oil Shock" driven inflation.
That nasty "Arab Oil Shock"-provoked inflation, which was also characterized by runaway, out-of-control ramp-up in Federal spending, was characterized by increasing rates of both inflation and unemployment. The data suggested, in that environment,
that the Phillips Curve was an artifact which had little useful predictive or even explanitory value.
It was bogus.
But in more recent (post-modern?) times, the relationship does still seem to be apparent. In the USA, we have now
very low and falling unemployment, combined with rising inflation and evidence of rising money-wage (ie. not inflation-adjusted "real" wage) rates. And it still represents a modelized picture-of-the-world which influences Central Bank thinking,
You can read about and listen to the music of "Sunset Curve", an indy band from Calif., circa 1995. They were scheduled
to play the Orpheum, July 22, 1995. They sang this song "Now or Never", and you can use the little "mPlayer" box at browser screen bottom-right, to play the first 27 seconds of this quite good tune (if you a running a Linux box, and Firefox Quantum Extended
Support Release. Not sure if this works on Macbook Moneymountain or Windows xx.yy. We gave up on that shit. :) )
(Ok, yeah, "Sunset Curve" are actually a fictional band. Right? Get it? "Fictional" - kinda like the Phillips Curve, that the Central Bankers are using. Here is the *tube clip below - with shameless Netflix adcrap ...)
We can work cutting down the trees-of-ignorance all day, but we never manage to actually get out of the great Forest of Foolishness, do we.
[ July 18, 2022 ] - Scary Monsters - Our AI models keep pointing straight down. It's is disturbing, since we are believing them to be someone wrong, since they are - well, they are computer models. I feel
like Number 6, in that old British TV show, "The Prisoner". .. somewhat discombobulated.
We watched the big runup in Bank shares on Friday, and this morning - only to see the DJIA fade away all it's gains, and the TSX start to follow. Banks are
fading. TSX (Toronto Index) was up over 300 points, but is also fading now. Bank shares were all up almost a couple of dollars, but are fading now. "Arrgh.." said the pirate.
These up-runs in price, followed by retraces, are looking
like 19th century "bear-market rallies", which can be quite vicious, and yet are counter-trend events. I have fear, no question. The AI stuff is better than we are - and it is a tad disturbing. We have a real fear that guys
like Peter Schiff might be right. We own some gold-mine stock (not physical gold), but both have been poor investments. Gold is down, and gold-miners are falling like autumn leaves - or leaves eaten by worms. Not pretty.
Schiff is famous for calling - most accurately - the 2007-2008 Financial Crisis (Bad
Models, Bad Bonds & USA Housing Market Fraud crash). I have a video of him making the call, and being harshly ridiculed by a witless TV commentator, and some Real-Estate "Analyst" with a name that ended in a vowel. (Beware the guys whose
family-names end in vowels. I am not sure why this absurd indicator works - but it just does. Hilarious. Viz: "My Name is Sam Scamo, and have I got a Scheme for you!" Our advice: Run away.)
Schiff is running a "physical
gold" promotion website. He might be right. Holding GLD ETF's or GOLD shares or whatever kind of metal-backed financial paper is on offer, might turn out to be sub-optimal (which is investment-market-newspeak for: "shite").
are a bit "at sea" now, as our models are really giving a clear signal ("Market is headed down, things are REALLY BAD, and you should SELL"). We honestly feel this is overdone.
We actually think it is a LOT overdone, and that all will
be well - sort of. But we are *VERY* aware that our "Buffetian Optimism" could be plain wrong. So far recently, it truly has been. For what it's worth, we can say, we should have just followed the damn models, and pulled
the big trigger into full "risk-off" mode.
But we have these "long-wave" models which are still quite positive, and suggest that this downturn is a typical "shit-house cleansing event", and that our historical analysis indicates that these
sort of events must occur - regularly - in order to keep the markets functioning fairly, and with operation effectiveness. Everything is too expensive.
Cars are too expensive. Taxes are too high. Houses in Canada are too expensive
for working kids out of school, in their first jobs, to even begin to afford, without help from the "Bank of Mom & Dad". In a country the size of Canada, (10 million sq. km) with a population (38 million), which basically same as New York State,
Massachusetts and Pennsylvania (roughly 39 million people), this is simply insane. We live on top of mountains of wealth. We have it all - land, minerals, fertile farmland, and clean water from the ground. We have forests and technology
and everything we need to exploit it all.
But, We have a Federal Government which collects extreme levels of taxes, creates very rich politicians and "civil servants" in Ottawa, and who spend most of their time trying to think up new ways to increase
(even more) the tax-burden on Canadians. Result: A high-tax, low productivity economic structure, characterized by restrictions, regulations, costs and controls that limit many of the benefits of any sort of risk-taking, entreprenural activity.
We have always felt, that if we could just get the goddamn Federal politicos out of our collective hair (and wallets and bank accounts), we could and would look more like Switzerland, and less like Argentina,
So, we have reason to be very long-term
positive on the Canadian economic performance. Yet we never seem to see that possibility of enhanced performance, translated into a share-price take-off in this country - except for Banks and Telephone companies. We should have
the greatest pharmaceutical and aviation industries in the world. Instead, we have scammy little failures, and Bombardier ( a moneypit of Federal funds which have been consumed, and will never be returned - rather like our experiments with our auto-industry.)
To be fair, the auto-industry has done quite well - once we started building Japanese cars here. (We have Toyota and Honda factories in Ontario. And the Toyota's and Honda's they build, are very good.)
We have (and really need!) a
free-trade arrangement with the USA (which is a very good thing indeed), but the Americans can not be trusted to keep to a deal once they make it (as the Iranians and the Afghans have discovered, of course), and so life here remains curiously sub-optimal.
Anyone who builds or invents anything of significance or major economic substance, needs to head down south, to get the funds to make it fly (or work, or get made, and/or get sold).
We had this one big success story - Nortel - which got captured
by criminals and pocket-filling fraudsters, liars, morons and cheaters. The OSC was never actually able to put the bastards who destroyed Nortel in jail (the OSC folks honestly tried to, but were not able to prove criminial intent, only that the Nortel
management were just fucking stupid beyond human belief - which is not a crime, sadly. Maybe it should be? <big sigh>)
So, we remain positive and hopeful for Canada (and Canadian share prices), yet it is a hard road to travel, at times.
The soil of this economic landscape is stony and far too often, is rather like cement. Perhaps we should use dynamite? Or maybe small fission-devices?
Our great fear now, is that the world is about to
enter a significant "de-globalization" phase, if not an outright open global war. The crash of that Ukraine Antonov carrying Serbian mortar ammo for Bangladesh (does *anyone* believe that absurd storyline?) in Greece airspace, suggests that
the Russian-Ukraine War has already shifted into Europe.
We remain Warren-Buffet-style optimists, and yet our AI, with it's pessimistic forecasts, has done a better job at calling the path of recent future events, that we have.
And this is a tad scary.
[ July 15, 2022 ] - Dr. Havenstein Would Be Proud - Really. Dr. Rudolf Havenstein was the Chairman of the German "Reichsbank", during the 1920-1923 German hyperinflation. The German hyperinflation
was probably the most interesting and significant economic experiment ever conducted. It was not completely without success. It created a continous economic boomtime, with curious prosperity for a bankrupt nation, with zero dot zero, zero percent
unemployment. Dr Havenstein steadfastly denied that his massive money-printing operation was the reason for the German hyperinflation. Seriously. He clung to his curiously wrong model, until he was replaced by Dr. Hjalmar Schacht, who was
brought in to repair the extreme damage Havenstein had wrought.
Wrong models are common in economics. The most recent was the idiotic madness of the "risk models" of the 2007-2008 "Great Financial Crisis", where the curious belief was created,
that risk could be sliced and diced, and managed, so that low-risk securities could be manufactured from a high-risk, hyper-correlated situation (a massive real-estate fraud, where $200,000 houses were up-valued to $800,000 houses, mortgages were granted,
and folks with little or no income could obtain mortgages on the upshifted valuations [since they had excess equity].) The idea was that a global downturn could not happen, since it would be a 5 or 6 standard-deviation event, which was believed
unlikely. The logic was absurd, as if all the people on a sinking ship, would not and/or could not, all run to the same side of the ship. The models were wildly wrong, but very profitable for the folks who promoted them, until they were not.
It was another fascinating, "wrong model" situation, much like Havenstein's world-view of how inflation happened.
We have another curious situation. Central Bankers believe that rate-rises are "deflationary", because of various reasons that do
make sense. Except they miss some of the very key phenomenon, that are painfully obvious to practical folks who are empircal analysts. Rate rises are just cost increases, to an economy running on floating-rate debt.
Viz: Recent info
on BNN/Bloomberg. We quote from the article:
"Based on the Canadian Real Estate Association's average home price of $711,000 in May, a variable rate of 2.7 percent will result in monthly mortgage payments of roughly $2,845.
At 3.7 percent, which (Leah Zlatkin, a licensed mortgage broker) considers the best mortgage rate now, these payments will now total $3,168, an increase of $323 per month."
Now, there it is in black and white. You cannot argue with this.
It is a simple financial fact. Our banks we deal with, have all raised their "prime rates" (on which all revolving credit-lines and demand-loans are based) by 1%. Their "Prime Rate" is now 4.70%. Most credit lines for businesses
and households are "Prime plus 2 %" or more. This will be a serious cost-of-living increase for many economic entities.
So, what we have, is a "PRICE INCREASE" of a key, critical price, that EVERYONE WHO HAS ANY FLOATING RATE DEBT MUST PAY.
One has to ask: How exactly, does RAISING PRICES TO EVERYONE WITH DEBT cause the inflation in our economy to be REDUCED?
Answer: It does not. Raising interest-rates does NOT reduce inflation pressure. It actually ADDS to inflation
pressure. (Some called this the: "backward bending IS-LM Supply-curve model".) Everyone with floating-rate debt, has INCREASED COSTS which will most likely be passed forward as INCREASED WAGE DEMANDS, and INCREASED PRODUCT PRICES.
saw this happen in the 1970's. A lot. Raising Bank of Canada bank-rates did *not* damp down inflation. The opposite appeared to happen. The banker-economists had the wrong model.
We learned, that if you want to stop
inflation with interest-rate increases, you have to raise rates high enough to destroy households and destroy businesses. Volker did this, with his 20% rates. Laws against "usury" had to be re-written, as demand loan-rates often went above 25%,
a statutory limit that was on the books of many States and Provinces.
And this is more than just "painful". It is explicitly destructive. This is the only way it works. You have to raise rates high enough to destroy demand.
You *must* create a recession, or the rate-rise efforts are *not* deflationary, they are - maybe - *inflationary*. Understand? It depends on the economic structure, currently in place.
And this is the rub. By just
raising rates a bit, you only add fuel to the fire of inflation, since you are just raising the price of input-money. And if the inflation is "cost-push", and not "demand-pull", then increased rates may REALLY ADD to inflation pressure, and *seriously
over-stimulate* an inflationary psychological reactive response, on the part of both businesses and household-consumers. We believe this is what is happening in Argentina, right now. As usual, they are in real trouble, due to their
curiously bad government policy choices. (Yet another textbook case, of how not to run an economy...)
FFS. Does no one ever learn anything from history? :(
[ July 14, 2022 ] - My "Inner Trader"
says: "Nuke'em Till They Glow" - and the arrogant bastard also suggested - pretty clearly - that I dump *all* the bank stocks, once the AI model started pointing downwards. Well, we did not, since the bank valuations and their Basel capital
ratios all look damn fine. They should be able to skate thru the mini-depression that is coming. It will be a not-so-mild recession, and it probably will vapourize a lot of businesses. But "Inner Trader" was correct (as usually he is.
Such a curiously productive inner dialogue...)
This planet has too much debt, that will *never* be repaid. We can say there will be defaults, with the same certainty that we can say the sun will rise tomorrow.
The Cdn banks seem to
be pretty well provisioned for the harsh downturn that is being programmed into our world. So do the US ones. But their share prices are being reset, and this sucks (really, like a low-pressure weather system sucks. Remember, the wind does
not "blow", it actually "sucks". Such is reality.) Europe, of course, will be fucked, like it usually is. This is sad.
("Inner Trader" says; "Poor Europeans. They did that big Euro currency union, and everyone
thought they were all gonna get DMs in their wallets... Instead, they got Lira!" [The Euro slipped *below* parity with the US dollar today. Oh my. I remember when 1 Euro was $1.50 US. Not any more...] And it will get worse,
we are told. This winter, many Germans are expected to be heating their houses with wood... [ Like they did in the 1500's.] Note: Nothing wrong with heating with wood - except you need to own several acres of forest, in order to make
it a sustainable process. And you need more than just a chainsaw - you need to have a diesel tractor - and it is difficult to make your own diesel fuel. But in Canada, there is more oil in the Alberta oil-sands, than in Saudi Arabia. It's
just a tad expensive to extract it. But it's there, so we will be ok. But it will be a hard row to hoe, for the Euro-folk. )
I remember Gerald Ford and Jimmy Carter. Lightweights. And the Iran "Hostage Crisis", and the election
of Ron Reagan. That got things fixed. Reagan was a damn fine fellow, and a wise and effective statesman. He pissed-off the Democrats so much, because he spoke truth.
The Democrats seem to always want to deal
in lies and fraud. As if a woman, has the "right" to murder her unborn baby. What a fucking load of nonsense. Where the fuck does it say that, in the US Constitution? We don't care either way about abortion. Do it or not.
Your choice. But don't bullshit the world, and say that child-killing is a fucking "human right". The fucking Democrats look like brain-dead, immoral fools for behaving the way they are now and saying stupid shit like this.
just drop this "females-have-the-right-to-kill-their-baby" issue, and let each State decide what it wants to do about abortions and child-murder. The ancients used to dump deformed children out on hillsides, out in the country. Hence the famous
story of "Oeidipus the King", who murdered his father, fucked his mother, and then put out his own eyes, when he learned of his awful, sinful crimes.
The ancient-world stories will be alive, long after all the names of all the shit-for-brains
politicians of this current time, are lost to the memory of history.
Because those ancient stories, they deal with the harsh-truths.
The Ron Reagan years were a good time. The stupid Berlin Wall was smashed to bits, and the evil,
rotting filth of Communism was shown to be the economic garbage that every sane person knew it was. Karl Marx could not shit thru his asshole, without terrible pain. He had bad hemorrhoids. So he sat on his sore backside down in British Museum,
and he shit thru the nib of his pen. Read "Das Kapital" and learn the truth of this assertion. It is fiction - the made-up work of an angry, bitter shit-artist.
We got lucky in the 1980's, and ditched the toxic-garbage political stupidity
of the 1970's, and got things working right. And we did it WITHOUT warfare. And the result was a runaway economic boomtime, unlike any that had ever been seen in all of human history. Ron called the cruel communist fraudsters running
Russia for what they truly were: "an evil empire". And he was spot-on correct.
And now, the Putinists - corrupt gangster scum of the first order - like the dirt-bags that licked Stalin's shit, are now back to pure-evil empire building, by
murdering the innocents of Ukraine. It is evil, like Hitler's death camps were evil. It must be fixed. And it will be, one way or another.
And we will know no economic peace and security, until we deal harshly with the
warmongering mother-killers currently running this assault project. They must be erased and ended, at all costs.
It's so weird - like we have crawled up the greasy pole of progress - and are now tired, and are slipping back down, all the
way back down to the foolish hellstorm politics of militarism that drove World War Two. Putin's "Big Lie", that there are "Nazis" in Ukraine, taps into this sad reality. There are no Nazis in Ukraine, but there are Nationalists - just
like there are in every Nation. If we let them all be killed, then the Nations of Europe will be next, as it will embolden the evil forces that now control Russia.
It's madness. And tragedy. But common as hellfire, like the great sweeping
broom of history.
[ July 13, 2022 ] - Better Late Than Never - (Tiff launches a big "one"... ) Bank of Canada boosts short-term bank rate up 100 basis points - ie. a full one percent. Big move, mkt expected 75 bp (3/4
of a percent). This was probably his only sane option, given the sense that has developed that inflation is in runaway mode. We don't believe it is, but we have to admit, we have been wrong to hold our bank stocks. Market (and our models)
said to: "dump and run", but we elected to hold, since we like the big dividends (and we have this curious desire to eat, and actually pay our bills...).
Mr. Macklem basically had no choice, given that the Central Bank here has a clear mandate to protect
the currency, and not let stupid fiscal-action put us into a downward spiral of currency valuation collapse matched with an upward spiral of material, commodity and house-cost price inflation. Such double-helix linked "death spirals" are similar to the
flat-spin that a high-performance aircraft can enter, if the flight envelope is punctured by extreme control inputs from an unwise pilot. You poke thru the curve, and you spin down to crash & burn, which is a worst-case outcome to be
avoided, of course.
It's a more lagged process in the world of economics, and the burning of the economy can take place in the silent nightmare-space of each household's economic picture. It's like Tolstoy said about how each happy
family is similar, but each unhappy family is different in the myriad ways in which it's unhappiness can be made manifest.
Bad economics is painful and destructive to each household and each person, but often in unique and curiously
different ways. Good economics requires stability, which then allows businesses and households to have the ability to create and execute upon medium and long-range plans, which are generally the difference between having a happy, prosperous outcome,
and a f*cking sh/tshow of misery, pain, poverty and self-destruction. (Very Russian, yes?)
Similar to another aphorism we like: "Once you've tasted Black (ink), it's hard to go back!"
There is great joy in being cash-flow
positive, and being resilient enough to withstand idiotic market action (which happens with remarkable regularity lately).
We expect the bank-stock valuations to recover, because the banks are going to just coin the cash, within this new, rising-rate
environment. We expect a flat yield curve (with periods of inversion, no doubt), since the long-term forecast is for mild rates, and mild recession. The bond market probably has this figured correctly, and with short-rates up to sane levels, each
bank which is able to maintain the quality of it's credit profile, should do just fine. And this is likely.
Folks in Canada don't default on their mortgages typically. It is mostly governments here that go "under water"
and "into the hole".
We have decided to name our big government deficit the "trudeau" - which means "water hole" in French. If you are 'under water' and 'in-the-hole', then you have a "trudeau". Canada has always had problems
with having "trudeau's". They seem to be part of the general problem of Canada. Our State spends more than in takes in, despite the high-level of taxes here (ie. 13% sales tax on basically *all* economic transactions) - the HST (which
foreign folks tend to call the "Holy Shit Tax"), since when they buy something, and find that 13 percent vigorish attached to the final cost, that is generally the reaction: "WTF? 13 percent tax! Holy Shit!".
And now, into this high-tax
environment, we will now fight inflation, by raising the price of money. And this is hilarious, since we did this, back in the 1970's, and it basically only worked, once we raised rates enough (the market actually did this), up to around 20% level, and
provoked a business-destroying mini-depression. I recall this well, as I was starting out on my own, and I recall sitting in a big restaurant at the top of a Toronto skyscraper in the very early 1980's, eating an expensive lunch by myself, and noticing
that there was only one other table in the room that had guests. The whole place was empty, except for all these waiters in suits, a table of 3 worried looking business men, and me, on the other side of the room, eating my lobster-bisque soup, and a
warm bread-bun with butter, sipping a coffee and reading my newspaper.
I looked about 14, and decided I enjoyed being an independent consultant, since I seemed to be able to operate in a counter-cyclic manner. I was busy and generating serious
billable hours, while others were being let go, and businesses were failing left and right. I was working for an oil company, on a computerization project. It was a strange time of very big change. I had quit a regular job, and started my own small
consulting practice. The economy was in free-fall.
A year later, I was building a computer database for an investment firm, automating and data-capturing these big legal-sized "greensheets" that detailed syndication characteristics of stock flotations.
It was a ton-o-fun, actually. I learned new stuff, every day. A bit later I remember I bought my first shares - a board lot of a new issue, that was "British Telecom". I remember reading the BT prospectus, and I realized: "What? These
crazy Brit guys are actually *selling* their national phone company! If it gets run like a sane, normal company, instead of a bloated government-owned cost-plus regulated monopoly, then this thing will just piss money!" They let you buy board
lots (100 shares) on an installment-plan. I took all the cash I had, and bought 100 shares for 700 dollars. On the first day of trading, it doubled in price to $14 a share. Like and idiot, I sold it (it went to $40 later on), but I
was hooked. "Good game." I recall thinking...
It's really been a funny ride. I was always busy when the world was falling to bits, since no one calls in a consultant or a fixer, unless they have sailed their ship onto the rocks, or
a storm is hammering them to pieces, and the board-boys realize they need to make some serious changes, before they are all destroyed by events beyond their control. Good technology allowed a lot of bad business decisions to be fixable. I
would execute by deploying good technology, quickly and at managable costs. Fun times, but busy.
So, I am looking forward to the coming deluge, since all my life, I seem to have done best, during the worst of times (and not so great,
during the best of times). I've never been comfortable during boom-times, and tend to miss the blowout runups. But when it is crashing down, then that seems to be par for the course I have always played on. Curious.
We are looking at another meltdown in bank-shares today. And given the financial strength of the banks, this seems overdone. But bank stocks trade like infinite-duration bonds - very, very sensitive to interest rate regime-change.
But the bond-market is notorious for really, really stupid pricing - pricing so wrong, that it can be silly. Long before there was crypto-coin and NFT's and other stupid sh/t like that, there were deep-deep discount bonds of companies and countries that
were expected to die.
Often, they did not die. I knew a guy who scooped up deep discount stuff, and made crazy potfulls of money. You would buy the crap for 10 or 20 cents on the dollar, and if your analysis is right, and the
entity does not die, you end up with bonds which get redeemed at par, and you make 5 or 10 times your money. Or, you loose your whole investment.
Talk about Monte-Carlo methods, eh? :)
We think we are entering a similar regime
now. There will be failures and breakdowns, and ugly times. And we are a tad offside, like most. Bank shares in USA are down typically 25%. That is a hard downshift. It might break the gearbox, but we don't think so.
Not this time.
But there will be changes. There will be BIG changes everywhere, and rather soon, we suspect. The changes will build and feed upon themselves. Good property will become even more valuable, as the not-so-good stuff
is discounted down. Governments will change. Old faces will be gone, and new, younger ones will appear, and they will act with both strength and wisdom. Or they will disappear also. We are moving from fat and stupid, to
lean and firm. We have to.
The USA is in a time of crisis now, but it does not have to be that way. We suspect there will be a mass-movement away from woke-folk idiocy, and psycho-sexual insanity that seems to be infecting the USA's children.
The old players will be pushed from the stage, and newer, younger ones will take their place. The puke-points will all be hit, and regime-change will happen - everywhere - even in (especially in) China and Russia.
Time is on our side.
But we all need to stay healthy.
And the world will eat more sushi. Really. If you are TOO FAT, you should EAT LESS. Some things really are that simple. If your STOCKS HAVE GONE DOWN, you must alter your investment strategy,
and ensure you BUY STOCKS THAT ARE GOING UP. (And note the long-term picture of the Cdn Bank stocks. They are volatile has the dickens, but they trend up. No single entity can own more than 10% of a Cdn Bank. They are - by law
- widely held, and this and the OSFI, keeps them solid and honest. They paid their dividends, even during the 1930's.
Hope this helps. :)
[ July 12, 2022 ] - Yield Curve Inverts Hard - Ok, so the 2-year US Treasury
Note is yielding 3.04% this morning, and the 10-year US Treasury Note is yielding 2.91%, and this despite an auction for a bunch of 10-year US Government paper taking place today (the increased supply, usually pushes down the price a bit, and with bonds, as
price moves down, yield moves up. Verstehe?) So, to see short-duration yields above the yields on longer-term paper, tends to be a no-bullsh/t indicator for *Recession* or basic, old-fashioned economic slowdown. Now, driving around Ontario,
one can see that the place is booming - but I was hitting tourist towns on warm, sunny July days. And Canada is an edge-condition environment. The market-moving action is always south of the border - except for oil and other energy commodities
- which themselves are looking weak. August-contract WTI oil is down $7.77/bbl, at last check, putting it in the $96 and change range. Given that it was 102 and a bit, yesterday, and earlier this AM, that is a pretty hefty downtick.
a fairly serious economic storm is incoming, we fear. With European energy supply looking at risk, and Putin's Terrorist Campaign in Ukraine running hard, with the blood of the innocent literally running in city streets, the investment climate
is fraught with new, open-ended risks. Russia will have to be declared a "State Sponsor of Terrorism", and probably we are already at war with them - except our various political poltroons just don't realize it yet.
stocks have been slammed, and we believe are crazy good value right now, since we expect that the ferocious downturn that is being programmed-in, will require a hard pause on the rate-rise plans - which will probably come around Sept/Oct timeframe.
These Central-Bank boys have slammed their foot on the brake - but the hellstorm that is now appearing in the rear-view mirror - and is approaching at ramming speed - will almost certainly require a re-think in strategy, once it starts hitting the labour markets.
So many folks forget that Central Bankers cannot *set* medium and longer-term interest rates. Those rates (yields) are set by market action, and the market is predicting that interest rates will be staying low, for a long time.
see something that looks more like the 1930's developing, rather than the 1920's or the 1960's. Most of what's on offer now, is expensive and dishonest - from crypto-currency, to "Climate-Change" motivated ESG-style investing, SPAC's and the Grand Internet
of Awful Advertising. The new computer technology used to be disruptive and beneficial, driving down costs and increasing opportunity for many. Now, it is more likely to be used to monitor citizen actions, track individual and group behaviour,
manipulate public opinion, sway elections, cheat people out of their money, and execute classical "blackmail" actions which require ransoms to be paid.
The internet has turned to shit.
The time you spend in front of a
screen, is pure, old-fashioned, nose-to-the-grindstone annoying *work*. People are beginning to recognize this, more and more. It is also risk-laden.
We have noticed that we are *not* getting significant real, physical improvements
anywhere now. We are not even close to any kind of operational fusion power, and solar and wind-power energy is laughable, as it is a tiny and expensive fraction of the energy needs a modern nation has.
At the very least, we should be building
*fleets* of new nuclear fission reactors, if we are hoping to actually convert away from the petroleum-driven global economy. But the only place this is happening, is in China. So, much of the economic-future planning efforts, appear
to be bogus and off-track. We don't have hoverboards or any kind of anti-gravity devices, and we don't even have flying taxi's (despite some noble attempts). All we have built are cheap computers, and VR nonsense that is only economically
successful if it offers pornography. Pretty sad, really.
This atrophication of effective scientific research, and the related engineering-science, means we cannot move forward globally, without we revert to the old models - instead of everybody
gets better off (ie. the "Green Revolution" in crop-yields being a good example), we can expect to see harsh competition for resources - some will be better off, and others will become poorer - and/or just be killed off. This is grim. There
is a grim and violent future ahead of us now, and we are concerned we will not get bailed out by technological fixes this time. We have exploited all the existing and possible improvements.
Quantum computing might give
us better encryption security - but that's about it. Our space-travel technology is back to where it was in the 1960's, and we only seem to be able to explore, by using one-way travelling robots, which can send us pictures. There is
little gain from that sort of exploration.
We suspect Nature herself, is programming us for a major conflict. It may have already started, and will eventually involve all of us. It's probably likely to be a "Malthus Event", which will
re-balance the population-growth and technologically-sustainable-population curves. This may be a very grim time, for a very great many. Big diebacks will have to take place, at some point.
Rather than limit, restrict and dial-back human
effort and creative activity to support "Climate Initiatives", we should perhaps seek to develop process and procedures to encourage and facilitate significant technological progress. We now actually *need* technological jumps, which can allow
us to survive comfortably (and with prosperity), in lethal, hostile environments. Elon Musk's plan to colonize Mars should probably become a global priority - because it would drive real technological progress.
We seriously are going
to really *need* to have some major leaps in technological capability, and rather soon, regardless of what the Earth's climate does. "Climate Change" is noise.
Our best scientists and thinkers and builders need to move away from the virtual wasteland
of the internet., and the silly, limit-action efforts to restrict human activity that is the ESG model.
Want to save the World? And how to do it?
The answer is probably: More lab-time, and less screen-time.
[ July 10,
2022 ] - Russian Spy-Guys Try to Kill the World? - I go away for a few days, up north, and a tsunami of sh/t washes over us all. It's quite awful in a curious way - the murder of Shinzo Abe, by a "lone gunman" who actually had to make his own
gun (in silly, unarmed Japan, where security is offline, it appears) was truly awful. We liked Abe, and were very impressed he suggested Japan allow US nuclear weapons to be located on Japan territory. That was a very good
idea - and PM Kishada of course said no. So, Japan will be (eventually) overrun by China - or be reduced to economic poverty. You are either strong, or you are weak, and get crushed and/or killed. Abe's murder was a tragedy on
par with what happened to Jack Kennedy. (Were both orchestrated by Russian agents? Hard to believe otherwise... Abe's killer appears to be a manipulated stooge, similar to Lee Oswald. )
And the one good European leader, Boris
Johnson, gets back-stabbed by his own Finance Minister, Rishi Sunak. Pathetic. Brit Tories couldn't run a f&cking lemonade stand, without trying to fight over who was the boss. It's a sad sight to see. Mr. Sunak appears
to have turned hard against his boss, and it all shows why loyalty is not just important - it is everything.
The Tories have probably shot themselves - not in the foot - but in the gut. As a political party, they will now endure an ugly, tragic
and slow political death, that will hand the UK to Stammer-guy of the Left. What a foul, nasty and tragically unhelpful sh/tshow of foolishness.,. Just so unnecessary.
And while I was away, the old Rogers/Fido cell-phone/internet service
crashed and burned - supposedly due to a mass software update on their routers. So we have to believe the Rogers company is staffed by a bunch of foolish fumbling folks, who cannot actually execute a software upgrade successfully? Probably not.
Was it was an attack? The *entire national net* was taken offline & was shut down. My phone would show either "No Service", or would show 4 bars of signal, but when I tried to make a call, the phone would try for a minute, and then report
"Call Ended" without even making a ring at the other end.
Eventually, in the evening, I was able to call my nephew (who had the same area code as me), but I still could not call the farm - land-line or cell-phone. I had him contact
the farm, which he did. He had no internet, but his Bell service worked. But he could not call me - but I could call him, and he reported all was well at the ranch. Serious sh/t, since none of the debit-card terminals or ATMs were
working in the nearby town. We suspect the Rogers-Shaw merger is dead like Mr. Abe, and the UK Tories.
Is Putin and his evil-nasty FSB (the KGB's new name) behind all this awful action? Unclear. But something is funny, since
the Japan cellphone service company, KDDI, was also hit by a similar outage, only a little more than a week ago. This seems most curious. If Rogers was hacked, they have decided to lie, and tell the world, they were not.
Everyone lies now. It's sad.
After only taking 4 days off, to work on a building project at the "Northern Office", I have returned to a much changed world. (Abe was probably on track, to resume his role as the LDP leader and Japan
Prime Minister, as Kishida is doing such a vacant and confused job.) Johnson of the UK was the strongest and most sensible of those supporting Ukraine, and he was also the smart fellow who said UK needed to increase the size of it's nuclear weapons arsenal.
That was a wise and good decision. But it made him a real threat, so he had to go. This is how 21st century warfare was predicted to be, by the way.
Non-nuclear nations are weak and irrelevant players on the world stage. Note that both
Canada and Japan - two weak nations with very limited military abilities - were the two nations hit with the cell-phone/internet-provider outages - less than two weeks apart. Both nations hide under the skirts of the Big Mama USA, for our nuclear-attack
response - though of course, both nations have the ability to put devices together, if they chose to do so.
Perhaps Russian agents are not behind this current series of tragic, destructive events. But it just smells funny.
Tories might have simply self-destructed, as Tories are often seen to do (they seem to really have trouble with the concept of party loyalty.) One learns in any organization, that loyalty to the organization is the highest, most critical requirement,
to ensure continued operational success of the entity. Without loyalty, a group of people cannot work together at all. and begin to fight among themselves. People are mostly insane, selfish and rather stupid. They prefer fantasy
to reality, and are always willing to be cruel and unwise. History teaches us this over and over again.
But my "Inner Trader" laughs, and says simply: "Remember how the First World War, was begun by some Russian-backed Serbian terrorist
from the Black Hand, murdering the Archduke Ferdinand and his wife? This killing of Mr. Abe, the best leader the Japanese have had in 40 years, combined with the crafted-removal of UK's Boris Johnson based on media-puffed fake "scandals" ( and
his dis-loyal brown-shirt brown-boys), combined with two successful take-downs of weak-nation internet/cellphone networks, sure makes for an interesting cocktail. We are supposed to drink this all down, and believe it was just coincidence? When
you look at this hot-mess drink, and add in the latest China Covid lockdowns, it just does not smell very nice, or appear to be something that a sane person could swallow..."
Doing searches on "Sunak", I found this interesting summary on Buzzfeed, from
2020, where Mr. Sunak is described as being "fiercely loyal" to Boris Johnson. Oh really?
Absolutely hilarious. Why do I hear that old "Sex Pistols" song in my head... "God Save the Queen" playing quietly ? "No future for you. England's dreaming."
Humor Under Attack?: Apparently,
humor has been outlawed by the "Woke Folk" of the USA, because people truly are becoming insane. Really nasty folks are "armouring themselves with false virtue", and going on the most curious assault-hunts, against - get this - those who write satire.
This is, in itself, pretty goddamned funny. That black woman who Biden put on the Supreme Court of the USA, could not even define what a "woman" was, when asked. She said: "I am not a biologist..." WTF? So the
"Babylon Bee" made fun of this whole "Woke Folk cannot decide what a woman is." This got them "fact checked" by some Woke Folk weirdo site. And it also got a retired General suspended from his job, when he made a Twitter comment (as a private citizen)
to some kill-your-baby feminist diatribe that Jill Biden published on Twitter. The Conservatives are reporting that rationality itself is under assault.
Here is how weird it is getting...
More Ugly Nasty Sh/te: - For years, we have quietly warned clients the internet
is slowly turning toxic, risk-laden, noxious and nasty, and localization is critical. Using any sort of "cloud" resource will put you at real risk. And everyone with any sanity, will use filters, cookie-blockers, script-blockers, ad-blockers and
limited-functionality software, more and more as time drives on.
Lately, we discovered another piece of crap - we keep seeing hits to "canadian.permutive.com", when we access various websites. This is another (newer) tracking tool, designed
to follow your browsing activity. The idea is that even if you block cookies and other user-action tracking tools, there are still ways that your actions can be closely monitored and tracked in realtime.
Here is an information-lite
story about these folks:
We do a lot of our research "browsing"
The advert-supported internet is turning everything online to slime and wicked high-risk sludge. Too bad. It was fun while it lasted, but we think Musk is very wise to end his plans to buy Twitter. Twitter is a censored
echo-chamber of hard-core Leftists and neo-National-Socialist "Woke Folk", most of whom cannot think for themselves (maybe because they are "bots"?). Or even if they are not, they act like Lefty-bots. Musk is wise to walk away (fast) from
everything that is Twitter. It cannot be fixed or reformed. It just is what it is - a mostly a toxic trash talk site for self-promoters. Ugh. :(
[ July 6, 2022 ] - Memo to the Pilot: Beware the Cumulo-Granite -
When flying thru a storm, caution is advised. Boris Johnson is being torpedoed by his own people, and Europe runs the risk of losing another good leader. It almost appears that a co-ordinated teacup-storm is being system-generated and carefully
deployed. The Brits are too willing to top their best people. It's sad. Resigning is a bit silly. Reminds me of dogs fighting - all this noisy, nasty politics over not very much at all. Same nonsense they do
Scandals are mostly bullshit, and no one really cares at all - it's mostly theatre. We need to recognize where the threat is coming from - and it is coming from the Left, and the wagon-load of lies and nonsense
it uses for it's political trade-goods.
Here is an interesting and well-written piece on the idea of the "Great Reset" (not the "Great Replacement"... ) Note that anything labelled "Great" usually is not so great. Like
the "Smart Car" was really kind of a stupid product, and a "Smart Phone" has become a device that is being used to make everyone become rather stupid. And how a diet of "Happy Meals" makes you feel sad, when you look in the mirror, and see the huge bloated
blob of lard that your body has become. Language can be manipulation and obfuscation - instead of education and elucidation. :D
We don't mind a bit of a global approach to things. We just want a world where the bad folks don't always win the day, steal the wealth, and control the State. And it honestly appears to us, that the Americans crafted the best political
model and constitutional government structure, to get close to something that works right.
Try to fly right, America. And Good luck, England. Best Wishes to all. And watch out for those economic storm clouds of cumulo-granite.
The ride is getting bumpy.
[ July 5, 2022 ] - Let's Awake The Truth - This feels a lot like 1931. We are making a "transition" for sure. We are making a transition from a Good World to a Bad World. It's really
that simple. Bear Markets are not big *crash* events like October 1929 or March of 2020. They are slow killers, like bleeding to death. You fall on average an eighth or a quarter or a half, each day, day in, day out, week in, and week out.
The selling is forced selling, as de-leveraging happens. This feels like what is happening. It's nasty.
Fortunately, we have non-leveraged real-estate holdings. We had planned to develop one of them, but have (again)
pulled the plug on the project work we had tee-ed up for this summer. Such is life. (Could be worse. Could be raining. Could be raining Russian missiles... )
Let's cut to the harsh truth, shall we?
nutjob-goofball set of scenarios are playing out - and we watch as all our "leaders" continue being stupid and making bad decisions. It's tragic-comic. Except for our local Provincial Premier, who has done a very good thing, by cutting the
gasoline tax, and by refunding the license-fees for car license-plates. This has made a positive difference for us. But the arrogant buffoons in Ottawa are consistantly hostile to our interests, and we find that a curious thing.
Cdn-dollar is down over a full cent, and there is real risk that a co-ordinated and brutal economic downturn is now being programmed in, by the idiocy of the "Leaders of the World". They have no clue what they are doing. And this truth is becoming evident.
One solution, of course, is to convert to a War Economy, and pepper Russian forces in Ukraine with all the bombs and weapons we have, blast the bejeezus out of all the Russian ports, and have a meeting at the UN, where the Russian folks are told to remove
their forces from Ukraine, or we start bombing all Russian cities. This dribble-war, where we sit with our arses on our hands, and let Murder-Terrorists destroy whole cities, and maim and kill tens of thousand of innocent people,
is just fucking insane. It is wrong. It's like dead-jews-in-gas-ovens kind of wrong. Bill Ackman is right. World War Three has started, but the bozo-brigade poltroons, do not yet realize it.
Russia wants a war
with NATO, and we should bloody well give them one. Issue war bonds, and raise up a few $trillion New Dollars, and convert our Western World economies to War Production, and roll across the Russian landscape like we should have done, long years ago,
when Gangster-boy Stalin blockaded Berlin. (General Patton was wise and correct about the need to fix the Russian problem, right at the end of WWII.)
Instead, we will have this idiotic war of attrition, where everyone gets poor and angry
and we fight with each other instead, which is just so stupid. We can take all the kids who like to play with AR-15's and shoot from rooftops, and put them in goddamn uniform, and point them toward fucking Moscow, and say: "Get to work."
the fuck good is NATO if it is just a bunch of fuckwits arguing with goddamn Turks! Fucking Turkeys! We are arguing with Turkeys, while cities are burning and Russian missiles are being launched against Europeans - it is simply madness.
If you have a goddamn problem, you fund-up, buy what you need, get your logistics and supply lines gen'ed up, and then you get the fuck busy. We used to *really* know how to do this.
We simply cannot understand the idiotic and pointless and
profoundly stupid behaviour of the global fuckwit brigade of second-rate, ass-covering dumbshit political poltroons that we seem to be burdened with in our current Western World. They are "Safety Nazis" in a very dangerous and ugly world, and they
are not wanted on this voyage. They must be made to leave the building, before their talk-shop chatter costs us our freedom and our lives.
We need to create and implement an entire Allied Western World "Force de Frappe" (to use
the wise French term), and then get the fuck to work on this goddamn problem, and stop fucking around with shit-stained, arse-licking politics. (Pardon my fucking French...)
Fucking hell, if we are all destined to die poor and starving,
then we should at least find that this new reality enables us to mobilize effectively, and get our people together, and take some solid, direct *action* against the forces of cruelty, madness, and stupidity, that seem determined to degrade and impoverish our
For fuck sakes, if Germany needs to have gas from Russia, then they can just use the "Putin Doctrine", and GO FUCKING TAKE IT! Fund-up your military, and tell NATO "Hold my beer...", and go fucking TAKE Belarus and any part of
Russia proper that you feel you need to ensure energy security. This is what Putin is doing in Ukraine, so he cannot complain. Ask Poland to help you. Hell, ask everyone to help you. They probably will. This time,
we do it fucking right, and solve the goddamn problem.
War was supposed to have been made *illegal* back in 1928, and disputes were supposed to be dealt with at the famous Swiss-based "League of Nations". Most nations of the world, signed on to
the "Kellogg-Briand Pact". It was a noble idea, and it was agreed-to by all major nations, and signed on August 27, 1928, in Paris France. It was supposed to make war between nations, illegal. But it had no effective enforcement ability.
And we can see that that it did not work too well at all, did it? It was just another in a long line of talk-shop frauds. The "United Nations" in New York continues this tradition, with that big talk-shop now used as a cover
for Russian "Special Military Actions" (SMAs) that destroy cities full of folks who thought they were new European citizens. This is political fraud, an obscene abuse of the highest order.
Well, we better get the fuck used to this
new current reality, and begin to GET BUSY. Plowshares into swords, and yellowcake into Davy-Crocket rockets. We should begin to work on this now, and not wait until Russian missiles are incoming on our homelands.
[ July 4, 2022 ] - Help Me Find My Car Keys, and We Can Drive Out - Do most folks realize just how silly it is getting? We are seeing a cascade of curious choices, by folks who run things. The results are becoming not too difficult
to predict. The inflation is already here, and hammering along at warp speed, and a cascade collapse is becoming possible. The French are dealing with this by proposing a new *law*, that will increase the salaries of civil servants, raise
welfare payments, and boost pension payouts. Passing **new spending** laws, that further damage Government finances - Wow! - That really ought to help limit inflation, eh? (If one put all the current foolishness into a novel, people would dismiss
it as being just too absurd and far-fetched, to read.)
We actually don't think North American real-estate prices will collapse this time. We just expect interest rates to rise to the 7% to 10% level, and prices to continue to climb. We expect the banks to do well, as they will be able to harvest
serious inflationary gains, as long as credit-conditions are not blown up - and we suspect they won't be, since it will be less bad for the "Governments" of the World to keep the free-money flowing, rather than have a collapse in employment, rising social
conflict, mass bankruptcies, and large tax increases to support wildly expanded government debt service costs.
We are all hooked now on the heroin of fiat money. And it is just too difficult to convert your gold holdings into cash.
(Unless someone makes a smooth-working gold-coin crypto currency maybe...)
Others seem to agree. The future looks crazy. And the "crazy" seems to be accelerating.
And it is not just Europe who will find it gets weird. USA is running debt-to-GDP ratios, at the same level it did (125%), back in the midst of World War Two.
We are a tad skeptical about gold. But the above note is interesting, since we also see the possiblility of a very fast change taking place, as all the parameters seems to be lining up for a "phase-jump" to a new, chaotic orbital location of economic
variables, which better reflect the significant new levels of scarcity of goods that folks want and need (like food, fuel and ammo). These transitions are typically not smooth. They are non-linear.
Like a sign I saw on the back
of big Jeep 4x4 the other day: "Get In. Sit Down. Shut Up. Hold On." For fun, I checked on the price of *used* Tesla cars. There were a few listed on a popular buy-sell site. The least expensive was $98,000 for
a 2018 model. Really. If you are rich, you will be ok. If you are not, you might not be. But that's not a new phenomenon. What is going to be surprising here, is the speed of the transition, we suspect.
[ July 2, 2022 ] - President Joe & The Saviour Machine -
Funny, but in truth, I got all the data on the future, long long ago. The AI technology will kill us all, Mr. Bowie indicated, just as Mr. Musk
has warned, and President Joe is busy engineering...?
Ok, maybe not. Maybe the "Saviour Machine" is supposed to be NATO? Or that
big AI that IBM has? ("Deep Blue Goo?) Maybe not that either.
Brunner's "Stand on Zanzibar" keeps bubbling in my subthoughts. We are in a very strange global horror-show now, where Putin is playing the part of Hitler, and Scholz of Germany, the part of Chamberlain. The USA is trying to run a limited
war, by "phoning it in", and sending some weapons, but not offering any direct help. Canada has sent some bullets and shells and (I understand), 3 (yes, *three* - not three divisions, not 3 hundred, just 3) M777 cannons. (Maybe would could do
a bit more? Eh?)
"Fucking hell!" says my deeply cynical "Inner Trader". "America spent *billions* blasting the shit out of Vietnamese jungles and North Vietnamese cities, billions on the unnecessary war in Iraq, and tens of billions
in Afghanistan, but they cannot even spare one fucking aircraft carrier to park in the fucking Black Sea, to deter the mass murder of cities full of European White People?"
And, oh - there he goes again, what a bad fellow! But my cynical
"Inner Trader" has let slip a truth, yet again. The Russian Terror War by Russia, offends us on a deep and basic level, because it is a bunch of people like us - standard average White folks - caucasians - who are being slaughtered by low-IQ Slavic
monsters whose decendents hail from the East - Asiatics with their epicanthic folds, breathing through their Gengis-Khan mouths, looking like V. I. Lenin's half-wit children, and who himself was half-Mongol. Lenin returned that "Mongol Yoke" to
Russia, in the guise of "Marxist Communism", and it enslaved them for almost 70 years. Poor Russia. And now, it sends it's goons to kill the peaceful folks of Ukraine, who want to be part of Europe, and not be enslaved by Slavic Asia.
Could this become any more awful? Perhaps.
Russian history is a perfect horror-show of tragic irony. We screened some "Why We Fight" USA propaganda films from 1942 and 1943 last nite, along with a bunch of Dziga Vertov's "Kino Pravda"
flicks. Vertov was an absolute cinematic genius, and his "Kino Pravda" films are easy to watch and remain fascinating. Revolutionary Russia was an interesting thing - a real entity, until it was destroyed by Stalin (an abusive, failed priest, for
god's sakes...). The history of this planet is such an astonishing foul-up, that it defies belief sometimes. Stalin was a bank-robber and a true terrorist, much like Putin has morphed into. Astonishing and so curiously tragic.
most important task for every living person, is to support freedom and justice, by making the terrorists feel the same terror that they have inflicted on the innocent - just before the terrorist's lives are extinguished by the forces of justice and freedom.
Putin's Terror War in Ukraine is the most perfect evil that I have ever seen play out in my lifetime. It will seriously poison Russia for many years into the future. The scale of the tragedy, is matched only by its unnecessary cruelty. It
is political insanity of the highest level possible. And it changes everything.
Somehow, we need to get new leaders into positions of power in the "Free World", and we need to get this done quickly. We need young, strong and
very, very angry leaders, who can take action, mobilize the people, and end this murderous evil, before it expands and grows greater still. Because it most certainly will, if we do not act. The costs will be high, but history has shown us - again
and again - that this is a cost that must be paid. Freedom must be earned, by each generation. And the cost of keeping that freedom must sometimes be renewed, even if that cost is blood, pain and death.
[ July 1, 2022 ] - Welcome
to the Shitshow - The large and tragic costs of having complete idiots in charge of things, is now becoming apparent. Our multilateral, open world of honesty and freedom, is giving way to an ugly, polarized, angry world dominated by the extraordinarily
stupid, the dishonest, the cruel and the profoundly incompetent. It's quite a surprising transition. We have this tragic-comic sight of Russian thugs, actively using their Soviet-era weapons to bomb Ukrainian apartment buildings and shopping
centres full of non-combatant civilians - and then reporting on Russian TV saying that the targets were military instalations. The scale and extent of official Russian Government dishonesty is making the entire Russian people look like absurd lunatics.
This in and of itself is an astonishing crime against human reality, sanity and basic dignity. Putin is actively destroying Russia and degrading the Russian people, their culture and their history. It is a sad and curiously awful criminal act.
We are watching the unfolding of a "New Age of Unreason." It's extreme and bizzare. In the USA, and here, we are seeing a curious political focus on twisted weirdness, and a strange and insane attempt to create a mentally unbalanced
world where people are encouraged to re-define there sexual indentity as other than male or female. This makes no sense. But it serves a political objective, which encourages and mandates a new form of social control. People are required
to *embrace* mental sickness under the rubric of "diversity". But it is the diversity of insanity - the classical denial of evident reality that characterizes the behaviour of the psychotic.
Why the insanity? Because it empowers the
corrupt and manipulative social fraudsters that have gained control of the public debate and political process. If you can force people to believe lies and nonsense by peer-group pressure, you can more easily control and dominate them. Serious
experiments in the field of psychology have demonstrated this process and technique.
Sadly, much of the improvement and gain that the last 40 years has generated, is being swept away by curiously awful events, driven by absurd, extreme and ridiculous
levels of greed and indifference - and by the abusive and clever strategies of the deeply dishonest and profoundly dangerous political operatives that now control and dominate this world.
The Shitshow is on.
What to do? Get angry.
Keep a smile on your face. Follow the idiotic rules, and maintain a low profile. But get angry inside, and know that the Good World is under direct attack. It is being actively targeted by the very dark forces of fraud & deception.
Plan quietly, and realize that you are being actively lied to, manipulated, and defrauded. Work quietly for the change that must come. Preserve your capital, and make sure when you vote - you vote for correction and for repair and for course-change.
But just voting, will not be enough.
You must realize, as one can now see - voting itself is under assault. The ability for people to affect any sort of change is being degraded and prevented now by the corruption in the political process itself.
So each of us, must begin to create and develop alternate methods - not just to try to repair the awful damage being done - but to ensure our very survival.
Strange times. Never expected to see things become so weirdly grusome.
It's even worse in the the world of economics. We are seeing a deliberate attempt to degrade and destroy our market processes, so as to protect the foolish and dishonest behaviour of our corrupt political people. "Climate Change" surcharges
on our fuel prices - which are already high and growing fast. First, we had the initial denial the inflation was even happening, then absurd and completely senseless assertions that inflation was transitory and temporary (?!?), and now, rapid and knee-jerk
**PRICE INCREASES** to supposedly **FIGHT** (???) inflation.
Of course, this has smashed the markets down 20% in three months, and provoked the greatest and fastest co-ordinated economic downturn, since the engineered inflation of the 1960's.
This is just abusive and insane. We have 40 years of out of control government overspending on idiotic and unsustainable social programs,
free-money-for-non-working-deadbeats, tax policies that punish effort and entrepreneurship, policies the encourage and promote unsound money, and a high-cost, low-opportunity economic model, that encourages our best and brightest to leave the country, and
relocate to the USA. And the solution to the resulting inflation that this exercise in very bad Government created? Higher taxes and higher interest rates, of course - but not until this action can hammer the markets, and enhance small-holder
It's pretty comical, since the co-ordinated degree of foolishness, seems to be planned and designed to do maximum damage, as quickly as possible. Probably this is not really the case - but it seems to play this way.
We are probably looking at an economic downturn, on par with the 1930's. This seems to be what is in the forecast, and this is astonishing. Our models are pointing straight down. Down and down more, in ways we have never seen
before... It is scary, but our cynical "Inner Trader" suggests quietly: "This is not an accident. This is not a "Black Swan" of randomness. This is by design. A broken, bankrupt people are in crisis, and Governments like we have
now, they *want* to have a crisis, since it gives them political cover, and gives them real power to take further, greater control. Our gangsters in Ottawa are not really that different from the gangsters that control every nation now - even the Russian
It's a terrible thought. And we fear it might be true.
Think our comments are too extreme? You are probably wrong. There are easy solutions to the current problems, but political actors are *actively*
preventing solutions from being implemented. This very much appears to be by plan.
The Really Big Shitshow looks
like it has begun.
[ June 30, 2022 ] - LinkedIn Does Not Work For Us - We Get The Moving Blue-bar of Death - Thank-you Microsoft. Everything Microsoft touches, turns into black, stinking sticky nastystuff. Just hilarious.
We use Linux and Firefox browser, a not-too-bad "ESR" version (extended support release), as we place stability-of-operation highest of all virtues. Some years back, Microsoft bought LinkedIn, and turned it into a crappy, bag of "Does not work
on Linux+Firefox", so as to drive folks to have to use their ugly and abusive Windows ecosystem.
Just confirmed this again to day - when I try to login and display any information - I get successfully logged-in, but then get shown
a white blank screen, with only a LinkedIn logo, and a blue bar moving back and forth. Nothing else happens. I disabled the AdBlocker, and tried a bunch of other stuff - but LinkedIn is butchered, so that it will not run with our quality, secure,
generic Linux software. I figured; "Oh well, Microsoft bought it, and they fucking ruined it, like they did with Skype, as a simple matter of business policy. Typical abusive monopolistic behaviour. Fucking jerks."
And I thought
that was the end of it. I'll just delete my account, and throw in the towel with those fuckwits. But then, a little reseach, and it got even more interesting. Turns out, the Microsoft boys were doing some oh-so-clever tricky-dicky stuff
- like copying the contents of your personal system clipboard, to the LinkedIn app, ON EVERY SINGLE KEYSTROKE that a user made while using LinkedIn! Oh my.
We've said it once, and we will say it again. Most internet shared-usage "Applications", like most software offered on the internet (and probably *all* applications from the major tech-providers), are often toxic shit-shows of data-rape.
They exist to harvest your information, and use it to take advantage of you. Microsoft owning LinkedIn, and doing this, is not quite the same thing as putting camera's in the Woman's Shower-Rooms and inside the toilets - but it certainly is in
the same spirit.
Beware the "Cloud". Beware the Internet. It is - honestly, we say this in truth - it is just not your friend. Hold that thought.
(Recall that scene in "The Life of Brian": "Rwome is yur Fwiend!"
) So is Microsoft, apparently.
[ June 29, 2022 ] - Hoisted By His Own Petard? - Or maybe not. We don't wish ill-health on Dr. F., but it still is amusing to see the high government officials become Covid-19 lab-rats.
Maybe he will get Monkeypox also?
We are not doctors, but if we were, we would suggest Dr. F. try a course of hydroxychloroquine. And we are completely serious here. That drug has unique abilities to reduce inflamation and pain associated with arthritis, as well as offering
value in the treatment of various malaria symptoms.
It has also been shown - in numerous empirical studies on real patients suffering from Covid-19 symptoms - to substantially relieve the symptoms, and reduce the mortality rate from Covid-19.
For various curious reasons, it's use became politicized by various reactionary leftists and other American disinformationalists. It is a safe and useful drug, which addresses out-of-control inflamation, which can occur in a number of disease scenarios.
Seriously, Anthony Fauci should try this drug,
and report the degree to which it relieves his rebound Covid-19 symptoms. We - and many others - are honestly curious. A sample-size of one is not statistically useful, but if he took this drug, and obtained immediate and tangible benefit,
then some of the stupid politics that surrounds it's usage, could be ended, and thus Dr. Fauci might actually be able to do something helpful and useful. And that would be good for himself, for the USA, and for the rest of the world.
[ June 28, 2022 ] - From Russia with Love - Not. Putin must be located and ended. Russia must be declared a "State Sponsor of Terrorism", and all trade must be suspended until Putin and his Terrorists are neutralized.
No other rational choice really exists.
Ukraine should be offered NATO membership, due to the extreme emergency it's people are facing, and all global resources should be used to remove the terrorist threat that is engulfing that nation.
No other option really exists, short of removing Russia from the planet using extreme methods. Russia bombs hospitals and shopping malls. The world cannot live with a murderous, nuclear-armed Terrorist nation of brutal mass-murderers of European
Russia has become the Great Evil. The free world must act. If it does not, then we must replace our leaders, with men and women of courage, wisdom and strength, who can begin the process of doing what we all now know, must
[ June 27, 2022 ] - We Are On to Something - More research. I am growing quite tired - but we are on to something. I managed to find Hjalmar Schacht's "The Magic of Money" book, which was published in 1967, three
years before this wise gentleman died. Schacht was the Reichbank's President, who took over after Haverstein had the good sense retire, and then decency to die. Schacht took over in 1924, and ended the insane money-printing that characterized -
and drove - the German hyperinflation. It is difficult to get accurate financial information on the 1918 to 1923 period in German economic history - the economic numbers simply became silly and absurd, and seem not to reflect reality, so they tell us
little, most think. Of course, this is not the case. The German economic numbers from 1918 to 1923, scream at us like people trapped in a burning building. It is just painful and difficult to listen to them, and understand and accept what
they are telling us.
People are most often lazy, stubborn and stupid. It takes serious effort to become enlightened, and then it takes courage and stamina to act on the knowledge gained. It also takes private freedom and a large bucket of
luck. And there will be "crabs in the bucket" which will further complicate and impair necessary action.
The more I study the German hyperinflation experience, the more ominous it appears. We think we are so much smarter now.
But to that sense of smug satisfaction, I say: "Bullshit". Our Central Bankers are - right now - quite possibly also being driven-along like horses on a highway, by the "Wrong Model" problem, towards a place where the economic bridge is out - rather
like happened to Haverstein's Reichsbank. We won't be printing banknotes - we already did that electronically - but events might be engineering a wild and extreme transition, which we will not be in control of.
We begin to suspect that we are
at risk of an accelerating change in economic conditions, the likes of which most of us have never seen or experienced in our lifetimes.
I feel like we on one of those old world maps, with edge-regions labeled "Here, There Be Dragons", and we are there
- just about to sail off the edge. We are actually - and deliberately - engineering a financial scenario where a major world-trading partner, Russia, is being forced into a technical bond-default, by our own leader's design to "punish" them.
This is insane. Those hurt, will be our own investors - not the Russians. We should be encouraging them to pay up, not telling them they cannot.
We use economics, when we should be using direct force, and we use direct force, when we should
be using economics. Why does the USA try to prevent the Chinese "Belt and Road" idea and plans? Trade is good. War is bad. Let's do Trade instead of War. But if war is needed, then let's do it right, fast, and
with intensity and focus.
The interest-rate rises planned by Central Banks, may have very unusual, extreme and quite unplanned consequences. People - even senior, high-ranking folks (especially), can become quite delusional - and this
propensity for self-delusion seems to be growing at an exponential rate. It is defining the times.
[ June 26, 2022 ] - In A Godda Da Vida - People like to live in "La La Land." You see it in our mythology and our history.
Humans seek and embrace delusion and outright madness. It happens again and again and again. Governments are the worst offenders, since the gangsters that often get control of states can profit enormously, if they can get the people to believe
crazy, stupid, insane frauds. This happens quite often, throughout history. It is awful, tragic, scary, and interesting.
We are now seeing a curious world, were idiots, fools and outright delusional madmen (V. Putin?) seem
to be in charge, almost everywhere. History teaches us that this is not an uncommon problem. If someone wants to understand "inflation", one does well to study the German inflation from 1914 to 1923. In 1924, a clever fellow named
Hjalmar Schacht took over at the German Central Bank. He invented the "RentenMark", stopped the insane and out-of-control issuance of higher and higher value German bank notes, and stabilized the German currency. He had to make his office in a
cloak-room, as the Riechsbank people would not even allocate him an office. ( A similar thing happened to a fine and clever Government boss at a Treasury department that ran a money-management group I did some work for many years ago. Organizations
do not like to change, and they have many effective ways to resist attempts to induce required changes.)
But one must study the 1914 to 1923 period of the out-of-control German inflation. That "hyperinflation" resulted from the Reichsbank have
some real idiots in charge, and stubbornly clinging to a wildly wrong economic model.
Here is a short summary, well written, by a German Phd professor, who taught in America, and died in 2007. It is short and clear.
When Central Bankers have wrong models, things can get very bad, very quickly. Germany in 1920 to 1923 provides a very good example of this. The German hyperinflation was *not* a result of Germany having to pay absurdly-high First World War reparations.
It was a wild creature, directly of their own making - but Haverstein absolutely denied the truth of this. It is a fascinating disaster, that provides a textbook example of how really bad big Government, and big Government organizations can be:
We believe - and in fact, in honesty - we are *certain* - that a similar problem exists today. We are certain that
small increases in central-bank administered interest rates, in the contexts of our highly leveraged modern economies, where almost everyone - businesses and consumers - carry debt, and have debt-service costs - we are certain that these inceases will be inflationary.
They will **CONTRIBUTE** to rising levels of price inflation, because in the short and medium term, everyone's costs will be increased. Businesses will raise prices in response, and consumers and households will demand higher wages and salaries, to
deal with their rising mortgage and demand-loan and VISA-card debt-service costs.
It is only when interest rates reach levels which induce substantial and significant change in business and consumer behaviour - you close the business, and/or you sell
the house or investment at a big loss - that is it possible for higher interest rates to reduce price levels. But this process requires a deeply damaging recession - or even it's more evil twin, the "Depression".
There had developed some solid
understanding of this problem, back in the 1974 to 1980 time frame. But that understanding and awareness seems to have been lost. It is certainly lost on the current crop of Central Bankers in the USA.
We think the USA Federal Reserve
should pause - and seek to dial down monetary stimulus by reducing it's massive portfolio of bonds it bought. Just let them redeem (pay off), and that will quite effectively reduce the amount of money in circulation. If P really does equal M times
V (which we believe it rather actually does), then one probably does not even need to raise the administered rates much at all. And if overall indebtedness is so high that everyone's costs are sure to rise a lot if rates are raised, then rate-rises might
produce dangerously disruptive responses where price increases feed on price increases, which would requre higher interest rate increases, and thus could lead to a very deep economic downturn in USA. And that will be very bad, for a number of rather
obvious reasons. (This is what has already happened in Turkey, in Argentina and in Zimbabwe, all textbook examples of: "What Not To Do When Manageing a State Economy." Must we emulate these folks?
When setting policy, it is wise
to ensure that your actions do not make a bad problem become worse. Sadly, this is often what we see now. Our political people and our regulators seem to have made Wisdom leave the building. Along with Elvis, I guess...
don't worry. We will all die soon, and in the graveyard, economics does not matter very much. :D
[ June 24, 2022 ] - Dollars from Hell - Instead of "Pennies from Heaven"...? We are possibly looking at a global reset-process
taking place. If this is really the case, then we are only at the beginning stages. This is another worst-case scenario. If it plays out, a lot of that central-bank created money supply, which has fueled the world economy for the last
two years, might simply be made to go "Pffhht!". Markets are up and hopping today. But financials are lagging badly. This is a dangerous signal, we fear.
Been on this all morning. Thought it might be international stuff
(perhaps a major purchase of a Bank down south? (The whole deal is going south even further? But no, that does not look like it.).
It's reported to be the Canadian housing market. Prices for houses in Canada, are up roughly 3
times, from average prices in 2000. Contrast that with USA, where prices are up roughly 60%, over the same 22 year time frame. Canada is expensive. And suddenly, within the last two weeks, the air is said to be "leaking" out of our house-price
balloon. Rough numbers, from several articles across a bunch of sources - Vancouver and Toronto looking at 10 to 15% reductions in house prices - right about now - according to news media articles. (I could not confirm this.)
supposedly have small stacks of "Cannot Close this Deal" problems on their desks. (Example: You do a deal at $900,000 for a house, appraisal comes in lower than expected, and even with your $50,000 or $100,000 down payment, you cannot get bank
financing, because suddenly, the bank appraisal comes in at $740,000. Yikes. But is this really happening in a big way? Unclear.)
So, the story is that Ontario communities are seeing house prices off 8% to 11% in just the last two to three
weeks, entirely due to Bank of Canada administered bank-rate interest-rate rises. Perhaps more in Vancouver, where "students" were often buying mansions, according to mainstream-media, advert-supported "journalism" data items.
News media is not trustworthy, but prices are prices. No price reductions are evident in and near small city where we live, since supply is seriously unable to meet demand. Average price for house in Vancouver is $1.2 million, roughly.
And that is high. But Vancouver is special case, based on the goofy geography of the place, with steep mountains limiting places where houses can be constructed. It's nickname is "Hongcouver".
Two or three years ago, one could get a 5 year
fixed term on a 25-year mortgage, for 2 percent or less. Some were available for 1.75%. Now, a five-year fixed rate term on same 25-year mortgage might sport a 5% rate, given the new interest rate environment. One of our Banks raised
it's internal "prime rate" from 3.20% to 3.70% a couple of days ago. (Business and demand-loans for consumers are typically priced as "prime plus", typically something like 2 or 3 or 4% added to that "bank prime" number. So, shifting bank-prime, jacks
up the interest costs of everyone's loans.
And so raising rates should make the bank more money - but it also has the ability to whack down the bank capital, as the bank's assets are the loans it has outstanding. Our bank in question, had increased
it's business-lending, by 19%, from last year, according to a May 2022 report. That meant more money coming in - but with collateral being re-priced downwards, it means risk for the (very well capitalized bank) is still rising, not falling.
If a significant downturn takes place in house prices, this is expected to have a non-trivial impact on bank stock valuations, as existing mortgages become more risk-laden. But will this happen? Unclear.
We *really* think the market
is over-reacting, and that even if house-prices come off 20%, it will not impair the banks any more than they have already have been hit (Share prices are typically down roughly 20% from highs two or three months ago).
But the market *always*
over-reacts. And sometimes, it knows why, and has valid reasons. But house prices were getting silly - and interest rate rises will help bank profits on new loans, as the spreads will improve in bank's favour.
And again, we have been handed
the time-honoured lesson: Do not try to "average down" on an investment or speculation, unless you know that you know something that the other market players are unlikely to know. And that, in itself, is rather unlikely to be the case.
remains to be seen how serious the market downturn will be in house prices. Since the Federal Canadian government is importing between 400,000 and 500,000 immigrants per year (almost double the long term average of around 250,000 per year), then we don't
expect prices to fall very much. There is just too damn much real, honest demand for a nice place to live.
We suspect that rising rates will accompany rising inflation. Why? Because that is *EXACTLY* what happened in the 1975 to 1980
inflation, and it took 20% to 25% (and more) interest-rates to break the late-Seventies inflation we had here in Canada. Raising rates breaks inflation, by breaking businesses and people.
In Chile, the Central Bank rate is 9% (it was just
raised). In Argentina, the Central Bank rate is 52% (it was also just raised). Inflation in Argentina is running over 5% per month and is showing no signs of slowing down. Argentina bonds - the new US-dollar ones - are trading
at around 25 cents on the dollar. It's a replay of the 2000 collapse, it looks like. They cannot learn, it seems.
The floors of the World, are getting very slippery. In some places it is blood, and in others, it is radioactive waste,
mixed with spilled oil and the sweat of over-leveraged investors who are losing money.
Our AI model is pointing down, sharply. Against our (and it's) better judgement, we remain long. This might turn out to be an unwise approach. But we
fear holding cash in this idiotic time, and believe that our equity positions in solid, well regulated financials which are characterized by very large capital buffers, offer better protection than cash-holdings.
Time will tell. And maybe
quite soon, Here in Canada, we have learning problems also.
[ June 23, 2022 ] - Here Comes Barfy - Forced selling seems to be taking place. Stops have been hit, and hit again, and then one more time. Buyers
are looking scarce. Investors are looking scared. Not good. What is just hilarious, is that Tuesday, driving from Parry Sound back to the cottage property, we saw a real, live Black Bear cross the highway
in front of the pickup truck. I have not seen an actual live bear in the wild, for many, many years. And this big boy walked quickly across the road, on all fours, looking like a really huge black dog, except his legs were as big and round
as sewer-pipes, and were covered with thick black hair. He was a good speciman, and looked healthy and well fed.
Perhaps, he had grown fat and fine from eating investor's portfolios...?
I am not supersititious, but perhaps I should have
been. We are getting shredded today. And the thought occurs - what if the big Banks in Canada, get repriced so they yield dividend rates that match the inflation rate? Easy-peasy, right? Just take 20 or 30 dollars or more off
of each bank-stock share price, and then the financial process will start to work again - sort of. As it is now, if inflation is 8%, and dividend yields are 5%, and there is no significant growth on the horizon, then something has to bloody well adjust
- and maybe it will be the share price. Without a financial process that at least matches inflation rate, you are stupid to hold the paper. Much better to hold physical assets, right? Duh.
And this worst-case scenario is playing out
now, before our tired eyes. Fack.
[ June 22, 2022 ] - "Houston, we have a problem..." - Our positions are not looking healthy. The markets are deciding that Canada is perhaps a bad trade. This is unfortunate.
The Asians say: "When you reach the top of the mountain, all paths lead down." The problems are becoming more serious, the market is saying. It may be right, and we may be wrong. One must always keep this simple truth in mind.
"Memento mori.." whispered the slave, into Caesar's ear, as he rode in triumph through the streets of Rome.
[ June 18, 2022 ] - The Year of Living Dangerously With Inflation - Curious asset re-pricing action underway. We
are seeing a rush for the exits - and into what? We are concerned that markets are jumping to a different regime where asset valuations are unclear, and margin calls are being made across a large range of investment structures.
We seem to
be tracking another of our worst-case scenarios, where a global, co-ordinated reduction in debt-levels is being triggered by a fairly minor revision in US short-term administered rates. Except data suggests that the change in US interest rate levels
is not really that minor. The move from 1 percent to 1.75% is actually almost a doubling in the cost of money. If inflation really were a risk, then being a debtor is a good strategy, as you can repay with devalued currency in the future.
But what is happening here is an attempt to blow-up inflation, by raising the "cost of money" by 75%. The bank's equity valuations are getting hit, because the fear is that the underlying collateral value that backstops the bank's loan portfolio,
is thus going to be re-priced downward. Banks make money by giving people mortgage loans to acquire assets. The mortgage-holder's asset is the bank's collateral. If we see asset values de-flated, the reduction in collateral values
puts the loans at risk. So the bank equity is re-priced downwards to reflect this risk
The problem is that the air does not tend to get removed from this kind of balloon in a smooth and gentle manner. If asset-revaluation occurs too
quickly, then the risk is that all sorts of investment structures that were fine and nice and working well, suddenly jump - when the cost of the borrowed money jumps significantly - from being nicely profitable, to becoming ugly, money-burning disasters.
This is an old problem in the world of economics - rather like the "Farm Problem" (when harvests are really good, lots and lots of food is available, and the prices paid to farmers falls, often a lot. Farmers tend to do best, when crops are poor,
harvests are small, and prices are high to reflect the scarcity of the lean harvest. A good harvest tends to punish farmers for their success, by offering them lower prices for their successful efforts.)
In the business of loaning money,
low rates of interest tend to reflect difficult economic environments, and the low cost of borrowed funds encourages investments which have small rates of return. But if lots of easy, low-cost money is made available, asset prices and investment valuations
can get puffed-up ("inflated!") to levels which are not sustainable if the costs of the borrowed money suddenly rise. This is why companies and governments issue bonds, so that costs of borrowed funds can be locked into predictable schedules for
The problem here, is that a rapid shift in the "cost of money", can radically disrupt a range of investments which can suddenly become unprofitable, if funding costs are up-shifted.
And this is the crux of the "inflation"
problem. Raising interest rates raises **costs** to many business owners and mortgage holders. In an ugly environment, where costs are rising, and both producers and consumers are getting squeezed, the blunt instrument of a significant rise in
funding cost, is VERY MUCH AN INFLATIONARY ACTION.
The only way that interest-rate rises can work, is to explicitly destroy the economic effectiveness of marginal, high-risk investment structures. The near 20% interest
rates of 1979-1981, worked to bring down inflation, by causing a brutal, business-destroying, unemployment-increasing recession that was ugly and awful. I know, because I was there, and saw it first-hand. Wage and Price control programs do not
work at all, and simply cause pain and disruption to everyone in a working economy. Plus, they do real damage. Price controls just stop economic activity. They are stupid beyond belief, and only low-IQ political people suggest such
foolishness as a solution to the inflation problem.
But interest-rate increases - in short-term administered rates - must bring down inflation by causing economic investment valuation destruction. This is why the changes to administered interest
rates (Central Bank rates, which underpin most bank loans and mortgage pricings), need to be made gradually, and EARLY. What the Federal Reserve in the USA has done, is almost a perfect textbook case of how to not to deal with inflation.
is almost never "transitory". Why any economist would suggest that, is simply beyond me. It indicates a deep lack of understanding of the inflationary economic process. This is curious. Why is everyone getting so weirdly
stupid? Rates needed to begin being raised - gently - last year, when the inflation hit the 4 to 5% level. Rising rates are not a problem, in an environment of rising rates of return on capital - typically resulting from improved
trade, enhanced supply-chain operation, increased ranges of economic opportunities, and improving technology.
Where we are now, is silly and stupid and awful, and I am just gob-smacked by the madness of things. We are at risk now, if the
interest-rate changes are too rapid, of blowing up a well working Western + Eastern World economic model - across just about everywhere and everything.
The small cities near where I live, are just *booming*. New houses are being built, people
can afford them (mostly), the banks are making money, and the factories are cranking out everything we need. The harvests are good, the farmers are well-off, and the money is cheap (the CDN dollar is in the 77-cent US range - so we are a cheap, low-cost,
almost Third-World attractive production environment. Our competitor is Mexico, and our customer - only a hundred miles away, is all of USA.)
If the government regulatory loons, and the silly Central Bankers could get some wisdom, and stop fucking
around with the parameters in an unwise and uninformed manner, then we will all be just fine. Rates needed to be raised last year, and we all told you this. Now that we have this inflation, we need to be careful to assess what the causes
Right now, most of the idiot inflation is because of Putin's stupid, unwise and cruel war in Ukraine. And also because of the strange rules that prevent America from finding and refining and shipping and selling more oil.
Europe is trying to convert to an "electrical energy" economy, away from a "burning fuel" economy, but they are also shutting down their nuclear power plants, which is fucking stupid beyond belief. Europe should be building a bunch of new nuclear
power plants, and developing a range of safe, spent fuel underground storage sites. (China is building something like 20 or 30 new nuclear power plants.
What folks have forgotten is that inflation is not entirely a monetary phenomenon. A doubling
in the price of a basic, primary economic input, is going to cascade a series of price increases thru a working economy. This is obvious.
And raising borrowing costs - just as that is happening - will simply ADD TO THE INFLATIONARY PRESSURE.
This curious phenomenon was seen, and documented in the mid 1970's in North America. Economic papers were written on this. Some economists called it a "backward bending supply curve", and so on. Raising interest rates, after the first
"Arab Oil Shock", as it was called, simply ADDED to inflationary pressures, and wage demands.
Rates had to be raised to insane levels (roughly 20%) to break the inflation psychology that took hold, and this caused massive economic damage. But
Must we track this path again? Interest rate rises will do NOTHING to reduce gasoline prices.
A better approach might be to directly address the energy supply restrictions - find and produce and refine and ship more oil,
at a lower price, develop liquified natural gas facilities, research and develop hydrogen fuel systems and make fuel stations available, build better, more efficient nuclear power plants, with off-site spent fuel storage (for enhanced safety of operation),
and develop methods to get electric trucks and more electric cars on the road - and this means making it possible to find and mine and refine the materials needed for the batteries. All this action will benefit from LOWER interest rates.
we suspect, is that we cannot be the only ones who realize this. We suspect interest rates will be moved back to a normal, sane level, and then left there. We will not likely see Volker-style crazy rates, as that would kill us all, now.
We need to invest to make big transitions, and some inflation will be necessary.
But the inflation won't destroy the banks, and interest rates must not be upshifted too fast, so that real-estate crashes and/or mortgages go underwater, or the housing
market is blown up by the process. That would be insane and unwise in the extreme.
If our current inflation spike is NOT due primarily to monetary policy, then it would be unwise for significant monetary policy change to be used to address the
inflation. We suspect the Central Bankers and their staff, know this.
So, we expect a few upmoves to make the interest-rate environment sane and stable, but not enough to seriously damage the economy.
And, long-story-short, we remain long
our bank stocks. We just don't see the need for an economy-smashing rate runup. The inflation we are seeing, is almost entirely due to the extreme up-shift in gasoline prices. It is dramatic, and costly, and ugly. And it
is due almost entirely to Putin's stupid and unwise war against Ukraine, and the sad necessity of sanctions to communicate to Russia, just how extremely awful and stupid this illegal State-terrorism actually is. Putin is living in an isolated dream-world
of delusion, and has no idea of the hell-storm he is unleashing on the World. He is actively destroying Russia's future prosperity, while his troops bomb and kill and burn down Ukrainian cities.
This is madness of the very first order,
and no monetary policy can address this problem. We understand that Putin has cancer, so perhaps Nature will offer an endpoint solution that allows eventual resolution of this insane tragedy. She mostly always does this, as we all truly know.
[ June 15, 2022 ] - We Might Have to Vote for Biden - despite the insanity of the American Leftists. Biden and the USA is doing the right thing, as is Trudeau and Freeland in Canada. Ukraine needs weapons. They need a
*lot* of weapons. They have shown the world, their soldiers are not afraid to die to defend their Homeland. That is the measure of true courage, and it deeply impresses the World. Russia is acting the role of the perfect, evil monster - all
because of Putin, and his personal madness. This is a bad situation.
So, we have to give the Ukrainians weapons. All that we have. And then more. This is the only choice, a sane and just person can make.
Biden is putting US dollars, and hardware, where his mouth is, and we are very impressed by that. So did Trudeau. I disgree with much of what Trudeau has done - but he has done right by the cause of global freedom. Freedom, in the end,
is all that really matters. This is the truth - as Vaclav Havel said - and it is the place where every good person likes to live, and raise his or her family. Russia is murdering not just Ukrainian citizens and soldiers - it is murdering
it's own freedom and it's own success. This is sad. But the actions of Biden are good. It's that simple.
I think we should arm Ukraine with **everything** we have, and call the bluff of the Great Force of Evil, that Putin is trying to create. Putin is attacking Europe - lets be clear about this. He is attacking us. Many folks
just don't see it yet.
[ June 14, 2022 ] - Burning Down the House - The American Left seems to want to destroy the USA. Curious. The Democrats and the "woke" folks more and more appear as a strange and quite unusual threat
to our future. We cannot help wondering if a subtle campaign is being run, by some bad folks, offshore, to encourage the evident 'devolution' of the USA.
Edward Thorpe (who wrote "Beat the Dealer"), a book about how to win at gambling games of
chance (Blackjack), is now 89. Wow. The smart folks are getting old and are fading out. This will cost us all, I suspect. It is the Bernie Madoff types who are running things now. This is a problem. We all want
to be the "House", and earn excess profits at the expense of the stupid people. But this is perhaps not a great strategy, if it makes the *Big-Stupid* become the dominant world-force. This will bring ruin down upon all of us.
identified the Madoff Fraud early on, as did Markopolos. Thorpe simply checked on the S&P Index trades, that supposedly were making Madoff's portfolio always make money, month in and month out, and he found there was no record of them at the dealer's
office. But few even believed him. So curious.
It's interesting that Thorpe is worried about (or at least comments carefully on) the same issues we are looking at. We see the USA heading for some very real conflict, as the "Normies" are being put in jail now, for any action that protests
agains the "Woke Socialists" - (the "Wokzi's?" - kinda like an anagram of "Nazi's"). Elon Musk is quite correct, in calling out ugly platforms like "Twitter" (and the other social media monopoly processes), which are shutting out at least
50% of American public opinion from their sites. And the "Let's Get Trump Show" on TV, is just an appalling debasement of any kind of honest justice - it is politics of the lowest, and most abusive - a "Trial by Television" - designed to harvest
action from radical Leftists, and support the Democrat Party. It is just shameful.
I think back to the very violent Anti-War-in-Vietnam protests - which were intense, and make the Jan. 6th "Election Fraud" protest in Washington look quite tame.
We always thought that protests were part of a democratic society - a way for governments to learn, and see up close and clearly, when their actions have become abusive, dangerous and contrary to the "Will of the People". The Congress was meeting to
"Certify the Election", and a LOT of people felt that the election was bogus, and should not be certified.
You can't just write them off, an say their views do not matter. They are HALF of America. I watched the USA election
results, and regardless of what the "Wokzi's" say, it sure looked bogus to me. It honestly looked like the "Big Media" and "Big Tech" and Democrat Party were not getting the results they wanted (and engineered, so carefully), so they shut-down the vote-counting
process, and arranged for a bunch of "Biden Ballots" to be found, and counted. Perhaps these really all were quite legitimate - but the optics of the process was profoundly disturbing.
And even more worrisome, is that the statistical distribution
of votes, from the "Bags of Biden Ballots", did not match what the election-night vote looked like - at least this is what some analysts have reported. But that story has disappeared. Curious.
Perhaps Biden won fair and square.
Perhaps. But trust was lost, and this is a very serious problem. And this "Let's Get Trump Show" on television, is only fanning the flame of anger. It is not just abusive - it is probably unwise. Show-trials are never
a good idea. Any good film-maker knows that the camera lies, because it crops reality into a false, bounded image.
But anyone now, who opposes the idiocy and abusive stupidity of the racist "woke" Democrats, is accused of being a "White
Nationalist" or some other such silly, emotionally-charged propaganda-style political label. This is all looking seriously unwise.
Thorpe suggests a set of not-very-attractive-outcomes are possible, and likely await us in the near future,
and we are concerned he may be correct - again.
[ June 12, 2022 ] - Modern Times - Or is it "Post-Modern Times?" And what comes after "Post-Modern" - "Post-Post-Modern?" Or perhaps it should be "The Time of the
Big Stupid?" Unclear. We can say, that risk is rising. The floors of the world are getting slippery...
and a fall looks possible. We seem to be having a
self-created energy-crisis. We need to looks for solutions to this. How about steam-powered cars? We could fuel them with plutonium, and they would even run on Mars.
[ June 11, 2022] - Silly Science - A lot of
the research we do, cannot be published here, because of course it is for clients, and is their "edge" (we both hope), and so I write about other things. But the madness of the world at present, is provoking some pro-bono research - basically along the
lines of "What the fuck is wrong with people now? Why is everyone (including our Leaders), acting insane or stupid-beyond-belief, and "Are things really as bad as they seem?". This is a trenchant line of critical inquiry, I am starting to suspect.
Too much crazy-bad-really-unwise things are happening one after the other. Everything is getting very, very silly.
And look, it is not just me. Former US Treasury Secretary (basically the USA's Minister of Finance), Larry Summers, has said
the initial inflation forecasts from the US Federal Reseve (the USA's Central Bank) were "delusional" and their more recent forecasts have been "ridiculous." This is strong language, from a smart guy. And it is 100% spot-on correct.
But why is only this retired guy is saying this? WTF is wrong with the current crop of "experts"? Why are they almost *all* being so fucking stupid? The Washington "Democrats" are succeeding in making Trump and his gang, actually look good.
This is surprising, is it not?
This is an actual honest question, not an angry rant. Of course, as a scientist, I have to look at the "Dunning-Kruger Effect", (the 1999 study which offered evidence that not-smart people tend to significantly over-rate their abilities).
Now, this famous "Effect" may well be why low-wattage (dim-bulb) people, who are "street-smart" (ie. good at vicious political in-fighting), tend to end up in top-jobs. They get there because of political skills and knowledge of organizational &
administrative "trade-craft", not because they understand the business. They are good at being back-stabbing bastards and have learned to employ political henchment effectively. (cf. Putin of Russia, a skilled spy-master and a serial poisoner
- and a very bad - and very unwise - "Leader" guy.)
The Federal Reserve is a special case, because they used to be quite good. But their top guy is now a **lawyer**, not an economist. Is this a case of "bringing a knife to a
Also interesting, is some real science that suggests the "Dunning-Kruger Effect" is an artifact of how the analysis was done. This is actually a big deal. We find a *lot* of examples of artifacts in data, and
you can test this, by system-generating some pseudo-random data, and running it thru your analytic-predictive system. The results are often surprising - the random data turns out to: 1) look a lot like your "real-world" data, which says something important,
and 2), often, will give results that support your thesis or validate your predictive efforts - which is even more problematic.
Check this little note, from McGill University in Montreal ( a not-bad school.. They have done some very good
work, in a number of interesting fields. Plus, Montreal is a great city to meet attractive girls, and have a fine night-life, which makes study at McGill a very fine thing indeed.)
[ June 10, 2022 - Mad World Markets -The Market has figured out that raising interest rates, will not do anything to reduce $120 per barrel oil, or end the insane war being inflicting on Ukraine and Europe by Putin's military Gangsters..
But it will raise business costs, and put pressure on asset values.
Real food and energy shortages already exist, and the high-prices we are seeing reflect this. Raising rates too far, too fast, will just hammer households and businesses that
are being stretched by big cost jumps in primary inputs. As we have often noticed with "Government Policy" exercises, it is often massively better for Governments to simply "DO NOTHING". But "Do-something-ism" is now deeply hardwired into political
behaviour. This is unfortunate.
Almost always, any "Government Policy" moves, tend to make bad situations become worse. The markets seem to have figured out that this rapid pivot from easy money policy, to tight money policy by the government
Central Banks, is looking like it might induce and amplify a market-negative scenario. The violence of the down-move today (June 9th), and it's breadth (every single stock on my quote page went red, except for Ontario Hydro), was intense.. This
kind of risk-off move on every single asset is pretty rare, considering the large dog's breakfast of diverse stuff that we watch. We seem to get farther away from sanity and stability every day, lately. Curious.
Apparently, dogs have
two genetic sequences, different from wolves, which make dogs friendly. If the leaders of the world had at least as much sense as my dog has, we would have more wisdom and less madness and violence in this world. But no chance of that, I fear.
[ June 9, 2022 ] - "Data! We Need More Data!" - We shout this like the Engineer on an old steam-train, shouting for coal.
We must fire the "boilers" with more data. So much we understand now - it is comical.
"Randomness only becomes dangerous, when it starts to look orderly." - an old stock-market expression. Except it actually IS orderly - more orderly
than most folks realize. But it is not concious. Is there a God of the Markets? Is there a "They" in the markets? No and probably no - except for sometimes, when the "They is Us". "We have met the Enemy, and
they is Us!" (This was from a 1971 "Pogo" comic...)
My best education came
from reading the newspapers in the morning, with my father and brother, before going to school in the morning. I was really young, but I would read everything - and then have to leave and waste time at school doing stupid tasks with low-quality folks.
It was comical - truly the school nonsense really interfered with my education. I remember asking why there was a big LIST in the paper, that had the label of "Unlisted Securities". In the USA, they were smarter, and called the crappy, secondary
junk stocks the "Pink Sheet" stocks, since their prices were printed on pink sheets of paper, or maybe the trading tickets were pink?
European Parliament has voted to end production of cars with petrol and diesel engines by 2035. In
Germany, they have decided to shutdown their nuclear reactors. And they have also voted to stop buying Russian oil and gas. WTF?. Does anyone see a problem here? This "Green Nazi" nonsense has got to be tempered with sanity.
We have seen the "worst case" scenarios with exploding nuclear plants in Japan and Russia - and Canada - but most folks forget the Chalk River thing - thank-you SRI Reading Labs. I was such a meganerd in public school - in Grade Three, at "Recess", I
would sneak back into the classroom, and read the SRI reading-lab articles from the back (you were supposed to read the simple stupid-kid articles from the front, but they were boring.) But the "Purple-Coded" articles from the end, were really interesting,
and one of them had all the details of the famous Chalk River research nuclear reactor meltdown - and subsequent clean-up. It was absolutely fascinating. And it kinda stuck with me. And Jimmy Carter too, as it turned out. :)
Anyway, we see the World tracking towards a madness. And what is fascinating now, is that this is pretty much exactly what happened once the "Black Death" of the late 1300's in Europe, finally receded. People went nuts. There were outbreaks
of "Dancing Sickness" - which were well documented, and became known as a medical affliction that doctor's studied, because it became so common. This is why the "Black Death" wood-cut pictures often show skeletons playing music, and dancing.
Sadly, the Putinistas of Russia like to dance in the blood and ruins of their neighbours. The United Nations should be abandoned, and a Euro-NorthAmerican military exercise should be started in Ukraine, to address the illegal Russian assault
in Donbas and South Ukraine, even if it means risking a little nuclear war. Putin needs to be lamposted - like Il Duce of Italy was. A nation needs to learn to resist the allure of Medieval Fascism, which is what Putin is bringing to
poor Russia. He is *not* Alexander Nevsky. Ukraine was feeding and enriching Russia, not harming it. Putin's fucking idiot thug army has attacked their best and most honourable friends. A dumbshit Leader that does something
so stupid and cruel needs to be removed - like Kurtz - with extreme prejudice. It may take a journey into the Heart of Russian Darkness - but the World should offer a reward for his arrest and trial.
What is going on now, is a kind of insanity
that pins the meters off the scale. It is pure, extreme madness of the most vile and tragic kind. It is sad that we are supposed to just sit back and watch this insane abuse, and not assist the Ukrainians. Canada is at least trying, but we
cannot give them our secret nuclear weapons, since officially, we do not have any. Crazy.
And we suspect that the European car-drivers, and auto-makers, might just vote to disband the European Parliament, since it is becoming stupid, annoying,
What other choice do they have? Be like those Monty Python folks in "Holy Grail", digging in the mud, and forming "collectives" of the poor and dirty, who have no energy supplies, cold dark cities, and dig in mud to survive? - kinda
like my Irish relatives probably did long ago, back in Ireland. The wise ones used the peat-bogs to grow barley, and then make and flavour Irish whiskey. The poor ones just dried it (the peat, not the whiskey!) and burned it to keep warm.
Energy supplies matter. (They *drank* the whiskey, to keep warm, of course.)
A Europe with no petrol cars and trucks, and no nuclear reactors to make electricity at scale, is going to be a poor and nasty place. So we predict the end
of the "European Union", since that would allow the "European Parliament" to be ended, which is probably a much better idea, than commiting economic suicide - and going back to digging in muddy peat bogs to keep warm.
What is interesting, is how the
markets are discounting two very different "future pictures" - one very positive, where we get our sh/t together, fix the insanity, and decide to run things right - and the other, where everything goes off the rails, and civilization itself
gets kicked to the curb by bad decisions and the resulting conflict those trigger. (Soros is not a stupid man. He offered an honest warning about this at Davos.)
I lean toward the postive outcome happening. But we have to always keep
in mind that the human capacity for cruelty, stupidity, and idiotic madness, seems to know no limit. Putin's Russia is showing the absolute truth of this right now. It is madness almost beyond belief.
[ June 8, 2022 ] - Gosh Darn
Python 2.7 on Jupyter Notebooks - been trying to get a Jupyter Notebooks project (which works fine on a couple of 32-bit machines - just fine), working with Python 2.7, on another machine. No way, it appears.
The fine folks who took over this
Jupyter project have turned it into a bit of a bloat-bag. They have arrange things so one cannot use Python 2.7 (and all it's most fine utilities and modules), on the "Jupyter Notebooks" environment. The world of "free software" is
turning into something that looks like cluster-bombing crap-attacks of cross-dependent mung, most of which is toxic, and is about as stable as a viral cluster of warm liquid on a toilet-seat in a whorehouse.
I wrote a really angry rant - but I have
removed most of it, since I figured out (and have already built part of..) a fine workaround.
(I really now understand why old guys were always cranky. It's because they saw new stuff that was really good - constantly morph into bloated junk with
tailfins and flashing idiot-lights. After 40 or 50 years of seeing this phenomenon over and over and over, it just makes one bad tempered. )
I really disagree with this concept of taking good, solid, working software, and declaring it to be "End
of Life". That is just wrong. It's actually pretty abusive.
Here is what might be the solution?
Except, I tried that. All that approach did - was give me yet another NON-WORKING PYTHON KERNEL SPEC in the Jupyter environment THAT DOES NOT WORK. I now have three kernel specs - but no working kernel of Python 2.7, so I am done with
Jupyter and Notebooks. To hell with that nonsense server-client foolishness.
It should be easy to define whatever interpreter environment you want to run, in a server-client thing like Jupyter, and have it JUST WORK.
We have had multi-process/multi-user systems with UNIX pipelines since I was a tiny child - and they work fine. I am so truly disgusted by what has happened to Jupyter Notebooks, that I want now to build something myself that works.
And, I just did. Bloody thing works nice. I have a working prototype already, with the editor in Tcl/Tk, and a run-window, which can run interactive Python 2.7 (but not as "Notebooks"...), and fling up a graphic display on the desktop, using
'TkArg' parm of _Tkinter. Just tested it - and the concept work NICE. (I am feeling "chuffed", as I think is the old English expression, I learned once on a trip to the UK.)
No one really knows how to think well, until they are in
their 40's (or 50's... and beyond...). This is the truth of things. Really.
What would be good, would be to teach the young lads who want to break the world, some Greek and Roman classics, and then send them off to war, so the slow
and stupid ones can get killed, and the smart ones can get wised up real quick, and be more productive in a sane and sensible way, much sooner in their lives. The rapid progress of the 20th century, was built on the profound wisdom of the Victorians,
who both knew about this problem, and then applied the harsh - but effective - algorithm to fix it.
[ June 7, 2022 ] - Despite All, We Continue to Continue - Strange times. It's like a replay of the 1970's, except everything is
happening on "internet time". The Oil-Shock is harsh. But it opens some wild and crazy opportunities. (Eg; Small, personal, portable nuclear reactors, for home and office. (Really!) )
[ June 6, 2022 ] - The War
in My Leg - I think I have either a wild viral infection, and/or a runaway immune-response thing happening in my left leg. Large painful, rope-like lumps - terribly painful - form under the skin, and then seem to heal up. Maybe DVT, or
maybe a whole bunch of possible things I've discovered on Google... Comical, really, since I have to heal on my own, I guess. Cannot seem to access a doctor, and do not want to go to hospital "Emergency", since it is always a crowded sh/tshow
of sick people, and also now, a Covid-19 ground-zero. One must manage risk dynamically.
Strange times. I suspect this weird thing in my leg is a reaction to the Pfizer/Biontech vaccine, I got back in February. It started
about two weeks after I got the vaccine. What is interesting, is that the healing process seems to be working. There is an actual viral war going on in my leg. And I think I and my immune system are winning it. Did a long walk around
the fields today, with my dog, and felt almost no pain. Curious. I honestly believe there is great benefit to be gained, by staying the hell away from most doctors. Not all, of course, and not the surgeons - when you need some repair, you
likely really need the repair. And vaccines work. They just bloody well work, and are worth the pain and risk they involve.
A good vaccine, is like a missile-defence system for your body. As you lie in bed at night, you
can actually feel the healing happen, as the invading virus-agents - and their associated toxins - are neutralized.
There is very little in one's life, that feels more rewarding than to be attacked by a cruel enemy, and then crushing the
force of the filthy bastard, slowly, methodically and with clear, singular focus.
Back to doing some more tech hacking on the platform that seems to be calling the future most successfully. Several years back, I built
a bunch of stuff using Python. Have returned to it, as it looks to be the fastest/bestest way, to get some working data frames. We are seeing such silly up-and-down action in the markets - I should be trading *a lot* more than I am.
But when feeling like sh/t, the energy-levels degrade. The machines are saying things are good and getting better, but the gut is sending out a different message. Elon Musk is maybe right. When I get these weird bad feelings - I have
learned not to ignore them. There are some serious risks on the horizon now, which make the hair stand up on the back of my neck - just like my dog, when she barks at the turkeys (we have these *huge* wild turkeys in the fields and forest
this year. They are grey, with large bodies and small heads, and make the place look like "Jurassic Park").
Python is a weirdly strange language. I need to re-compile my source version (2.7.14), with a proper TLS-1.2 SSL, so the goddamn
thing can import modules, using "pip" on my custom Linux hack-boxes. The kinky thing about Python, is the genius interpreter idea. Most computing is moving stuff around, and running existing programs. Python is a reasonable "glue-language"
environment, and it has a philosophy of not being a wankers bit-fiddle butcher-bucket of glop, like so many C/c++ environments (or Perl, for f*** sakes). Here is a page: "The Zen of Python"
The ideas generalize. I would also add, that Python meets the "George Patton" dictum: "A merely *good* plan, executed today, with vigour and speed, is often much better than a really *excellent* plan, executed a few weeks from now, when the time for
action has passed." I am not sure if he really said that, but it sure as hell is true in the World of Finance, Markets and Money. (And maybe in Love, also?) :)
[ June 1, 2022 ] - World Going Completely Bonkers
- Absolutely nutbar, silly bonkers - crazy politicians doing amazingly stupid things, bad policy, unwise choices, foolish short-term "do-somethingism" which will almost certainly take us all into crazy, un-needed conflict and wild extreme scenarios.
No one, in positions of power and privilege, seems to have any sense anymore. Truly, we are not sure why.
A little "retail relaxation" was in order. I bought a new thing - and of course, being here in the Great White North,
it will be many weeks before I am allowed to take it home from the store. Here is a video of what I bought (hint: It is a fine, precision instrument, manufactured in the Czech Republic. I have a very, very soft spot in my heart, for Prague, and
really all things Czech - from beer, to camera equipment, to semi-auto's. The Czech folks are us, like the Ukrainians and the Polish people are - and the Scots and the Germans and the Brits and the Swedes. Here, we are Europe, Version 2.0, truth
be told. Oh, and the French also, of course. Lots and lots of French, which make Montreal the coolest city on this planet - also another quiet local truth.) But today, we are thinking of fine things Czech...
I literally have to wait for paperwork from several government agencies - Provincial and Federal, before I can take my new purchase home from the store - and then out to the Range. :)
[ May 26, 2022 ] - Nothing Success Like Success
- This seems so obvious - but it is difficult to actualize, quite often. You know what you must do - but the doing of it is difficult, so you shy away and fail. Don't be a pussy. If it needs to be done, and your analysis says it
must be done, then the only option is to do it, painful and difficult as it might well be. Pain can be helpful - it is Nature's Way of letting us know we are not yet rotting dead meat, and that life is able to be a wonderful goddamn thing. :)
If any humans are reading this - the stock we held, is up another $1.25 as I key this, and the DJIA is up over 500 points (again). Mr. Market is in one of his manic phases today. Everyone in the world knows we have to bomb our dear Russia,
and burn their cities, like they are burning down Ukrainian cities - but we still have not managed to cross this Rubicon just yet. But I think Soros is correct - this is a river that will have to be crossed. It may result in a nasty little (or
not so little) nuclear war, but it is gonna have to happen. Russia has become an advance Terror State, on par with Osama Bin Laden, and the rest of the World cannot put it's head up it's ass, and pretend that this reality has not transpired.
Difficult action will be required... Unless the Russians can arrest and imprison Putin for mass-murder and his other War Crimes.
Meanwhile the markets are flying. We are doing so well in Canada, that is is almost embarrassing.
"Money for nothing, and your chicks for free" ( I think it was a poultry farmer who said that...)
The Canadian Banks are doing fine. If you are curious, you might want to see what AIRB risk analysis methodologies are mandated by the OSFI,
for the Canadian Banks (an old High-School buddy of mine, used to be the OSFI boss. He was a very clever and focused dude, with a high degree of personal integrity, and high-grade executive abilitity. I think all this stuff the OSFI put together,
was created on his watch. There are some smart folks at the OSFI, and I think this approach has kept our Banks honest, careful, and nicely profitable. Details in the URL below:
See, the OSFI created this reasonably standardized approach, and the Banks report according to this model approach - which still gives them latitude to have their own risk-models. Risk is a funny thing - it is never absent. Every
trade, every business action involves real, true risk. But you never can really get a complete handle on it. This is the "unknown unknowns problem", and is always evident. Taleb labelled it the "Black Swan" (which was found in
Australia, after being a legend and a fictious thing, in European culture). This insane terror-war in Ukraine is almost a Black Swan, except US Intelligence folks learned about the preparations, and the USA told the world. Good for
them. It is the dumbest, most ass-fuckingly evil-stupid insane thing I have ever seen in my lifetime, and I would honestly have said that it would not happen. But I would have been wrong, since human cruelty and stupidity knows no real limit.
If it takes a world-smashing nuclear war to explain to the Russians that this sort of shit-licking evil is not to be allowed, then it will just have to be a cost we will have to bear.
But it would be better, if a bunch of honorable and
good Russian citizens could engineer a change in regime, regardless of how it could be done. That would be a better outcome for the World.
Personally, I would nuke Putin from orbit, since this insane Hitler-style exercise in mass-murder will not
end, until Russian cities are burning the same way that Ukrainian cities are. Until Moscow looks like Mariupol, the lick-shit toads in Putin's Gangster-group, will not be weakened sufficiently to allow the good people to act, I suspect. Russians
must feel motivated to make a change - like they did in 1917. I used to really like and respect the Russians. So for me, this whole thing has an ugly, pesonal element, that makes me non-objective now. I feel personally betrayed
by Putin and his henchmen. That fucker cheated us, lied to us all, and is now threatening the World with nuclear assault. That fucker has to face the consequence of his very, very bad actions.
Curiously, there are a few
others who have figured this out. Putin must *lose* this ugly war. Most Americans, strange as it may seem, show evidence of having no clue about the need for this, or really about much of anything else, now. Not sure why... But this
women understands, and has the courage to write the truth:
Market Hackery - "No Man is so Innocently Employed, as One Who Is Making Money". And maybe, this is true? I was deeply happy to see Russia get rich. A rich Russia is good for Russians, and good for the World.
What Putin has done, is a Crime against Russians, as much as it a crime against the Ukrainians. The Russians have given the world so much. We use their math to make money. And making money means we can ALL live well.
War is a crazy, an evil sickness which is sometimes forced upon honourable people who must defend themselves, against invading monsters - a true creation of *hell* in this World. And Putin - personally - is the author of this current horrific conflict.
This is just so damn sad. We will have to study war - again. And we will have to win.
The skills between market hackery, and the aiming of anti-aircraft weapons, are not very different. WW2 taught us this. What is interesting,
are the auto-correlation characteristics of some time-series. Prices, and the first-difference, or rate-of-return values of a price series - those are very interesting. I just discovered some stuff from these Wolfram guys. Probably just a
guy named Wolfram. Cool stuff. Here is a cool interactive graphic of a stationary series...
There are these silly trades one can make - day in and day out - that make a little bit of money (until one day, when they lose it all, and then some!). Market processes are interesting - and they are the only thing I have found on the entire
internet, that I can make money with, on a reasonably consistant basis. But you had better do your risk-control stuff, or you will get done like a Russian kid driving a shit-stained Soviet-era tank, as the Javelin missile blasts him into little
pieces of red bits. "Statistical Arbitrage" is a stupid name. They should call it "Market-based DiddleHacking - MBDH" and report it as a line-item of profit, in the "Capital Markets" section of the Quarterly Report.
[ May 25,
2022 ] - Dumb Guy - Sold the leveraged part of my position, which I put on, driven by the AI uptick, because I just felt too much risk. Dumb and dumber, since the company we testbed with, reported a solid earnings beat, and the stock is zooming
up. Bugger. At least we still have a truckload of the original postion, in a couple of different portfolios. Pretty funny - I can predict the future reasonably well, but I still am not yet very good at trading it profitably. :/
Canada is sending 20,000 155mm artillery shells to Ukraine, for the big M777's. Rock on, guys. Defend the Homeland from the "Zombie" forces. No-one lives forever. If you die fighting the forces of pure evil, your life (and
your death) have real meaning. But of course, do your best to "Come Back Alive!". Ukrainians are showing the world what true human purpose and honest courage looks like. We should send them a bunch of our F-18's (and some ASLM's) to
sink the Russian murder-ships infesting the Black Sea, and trying to starve the World of Ukrainian food exports. Putin's Russia has become a Terror State. Russia should be declared a "State Sponsor of Terrorism", and it's ports should
be blockaded by a UN-authorized military action.
[ May 24, 2022 ] - World Going Dark, New Leaders Needed - We have to get out our horses, and ride out to where Cincinnatus is running his farm - and beg him to come and
lead our armies. The times demand change.
[ May 23, 2022 ] - Shaken - and Stirred-Up - Boris Bondarev: Heroic Teller of Truth. Russian diplomat resigns in disgust because of Putin's Terror War & Lavrov's Lies. Good for Mr. Bondarev. The Invasion and
murderous, illegal Terror-War against Ukraine by Russian military forces, is pure madness, and has set Russia back into a dark-age of cruel violence and economic isolation. It is deeply wrong, it will gain nothing for Russia, and it was completely un-necessary.
Mr. Bondarev has done the right thing by speaking out against it, and will now walk a dangerous path.
Strange and sad times for many.
Meanwhile, back at the AI (Artificial Intelligence) Ranch... The forecast from the AI seems to be working. All Cdn markets closed today for Victoria Day (We love our old, dead Queen
Victoria. She helped create our Homeland.) The US Bank Stocks caught fire today. Up and away, it seems. The AI called a bottom on Friday. Curious. It is mindless, but it is also better (mostly) than the community
of pundits and analysts.
22, 2022 ] - The Great Retracement - Markets appear to be in synchronized downshift mode. "Retracement" is the term. We are of course concerned that this may be the "Great Retracement", in which the stimulus-fueled gains of the last 10
years, are unwound - perhaps in a much shorter time frame than they were built up.
Synchronized events of negative market motivators are: Idiotic and insane Russian war-action in Urkraine. This is abuse and evil and madness which is true
"Black Swan" stuff. It destroys Russia as a political and economic entity, and it costs the world food, customers, and productive producers. It is madness. But it gets worse, when Covid-Zero in China, and the supply and production
problems that this causes, combined with the global high-inflation that the money-supply expansion has caused, and that thus provokes the USA (and others, of course), to raise administered interest rates. Probably a lot more than they are already now.
Oh, and we are seeing an "oil shock" to the global economy, that is almost the same intensity that we saw in 1973, when the Saudi's hired a US consulting firm to tell them where to price their oil (Recall those third-year ECON courses: viz: "Products
Which Have Demand Characteristics Which Exhibit High Degree of Price Inelasticity " - like both insulin and gasoline do? You can set the price at just about any level, and roughly the same amount of product will be consumed. Except
that if the market-clearing price is too high, you start to see your customers begin to die off.)
Combine this nasty economic storm, with the political turmoil that is evident in every nation now, and you get a clear algorithm for synchronized **
market retracement ** - which of course, we have to call "The Great Retracement", because that just seems to be what it needs to be called - for obvious political and social-scientific reasons.
The one interesting thing, is
that our mindless AI has tilted up. Just ran it with Friday's close numbers, and we still get the curve showing a bottom, and a tiny tilt upwards.
So we may be at - or near - a local bottom. We have already lost between 20% to
30% from the high-water price-levels of 4 to 6 months back (depending on whether you consider the DJIA and S&P or the Nasdaq Index as your benchmark, against which you measure your tracking error).
Let's be clear. We are worried - and reduced
a large part of the leveraged position we took on. (We are *always* too early, in both entering and exiting positions. Just seems to be that way... I just seem to see stuff before others, and have not yet learned sufficient patience...)
But the AI is clear. It says we are primed for an up-move. I can post this on a Sunday, and now we will take the old vintage Lincoln out for a drive. Best 73's.
[ May 20, 2022 ] - Are We Not Men?
- We are down low. And we worry we might have brought a knife to a gunfight.
"Rome is your fwiend!"
[ May 19, 2022 ] - When the World is Running Down... - Go long. Make your bet on
the Power Rangers of Freedom. :)
We killed Hitler in his bunker once. (Our Dad's and Mom's did it, actually.) We just have to do it again. Hitler Version 2.0 is named Vladimir Putin. You know where he lives, right?
See, now, it's our turn. Plowshares into yellowcake, yellowcake in to UF6, boil the UF6 in a steam-kettle, and whisk the puff into the centrifuges. Spin-baby-spin, and out comes the "Dust of Freedom Dash 235". A kilo or two
at each end of a binary doublewhumper cannon, some TNT, a charged battery, and some fast electronics to make sure each *whump* happens at the same time, and quote me that Hindi scripture, eh? "I have become Freedom, the Creator of New Worlds!"
Duck, yeah! (or something like that...)
See, it is gonna get interesting, when any kid with a 240-volt 3-phase connection to the grid, a pile of hot rocks, and some welding kit, a machine-shop, and some chem-lab stuff, is able to fab his own "Davy
Crocket" rockets. Unless we let the Russians kill the whole world, and burn down all the libraries, the Blue-Genie of Science is now out in the world. And with Science there is real Power, and with some funding, the Power can be converted
into Freedom. Real, serious tangible Freedom. Because the prime-driver of science advancement, has always been weapons research. Yes, this is true. Really. Almost all major science and industrial development action, has
been driven by weapons research.
And remember, Libraries will get you thru times of no money, better than Money will get you thru times of no Libraries. Ask the kids at the schools in Mariupol, if you doubt this truth. Oh, wait.. they
are all dead, aren't they? Well, go make some more. Get busy.
And about NATO: Most folks don't even know that NATO was a Canadian idea. And that Lester Pearson, defeated the Conservative Government of
John Diefenbaker, because Pearson INSISTED UPON having Bomarc nuclear missiles ON CANDIAN TERRITORY - here, able to launch against any invading Russian bombers. The Tories wimped-out, and Pearson's Liberals engineered a "No Confidence" defeat
of the Conservatives in Parliament. This saved us from nuclear attack, we suspect (but cannot prove, of course.) The Tory PM, Diefenbaker, was an unwise tragic fool, despite being able to play the part of what appeared to be, a good and honourable
statesman. So sad. Really sad, actually.)
Pearson probably saved Canada, but history gives him little credit. He might have actually saved the world, also. Trudeau (the father of the current PM), was another arrogant ass,
much like "Dief the Chief" (god help us), It is the man, not the Party, who matters, our history has taught us...
NATO was crafted to prevent insane, (and planned - we know this for a fact, based on our intelligence info) Russian nuclear attack
on North America. The Russians can simply get batshit crazy, because of their awful, twisted, and horribly nasty government and spy-system apparatus (goes back to Czarist times, truth be told.) Hell, probably goes back to St. ("Kill them
All!") Olga of Kiev. The Russians can be crazy evil - much like the Germans can. It's a family fight, after all. Know this.
NATO saved us - and probably the USA and England (the UK) also. Post-War Europe also got saved.
Trudeau version 1.0 wanted to exit NATO, and focus on spending slush-money in Canada to support folks in Quebec. Then, someone explained the World to him, and he got wisdom (probably Pearson did this, we don't know who actually.)
Pearson, the Liberal Prime Minister, was a careful genius. He was a quiet, funny guy, spoke with a lisp, and had an IQ like Issac Newton, it looks like, in retrospect. He was a truly brilliant political operative, and a man of astonishing vision,
integrity, and an actual true genius - much like John A. MacDonald, our first Prime Minister, and the man responsible for creating the Dominion of Canada. MacDonald was a Scotish Tory who drank too much, had a pretty but invalid wife whom he loved deeply.
He had a hot temper, and killed a kid in a duel when he was 18. (He deeply regretted this, and was cleared of the crime, by a sympathetic Judge.)
Pearson was a strong, peace-seeking Liberal, who wore a really goofy looking bow-tie, and came
across as a Walter Mitty character, but who had a mind like a Caesar, and who armed Canada with nuclear weapons when it became necessary to do so. Canada was by necessity, technologically advanced. Canada was the third nation to launch a satellite,
(After Russian and USA did) and it was a *working* television communications satellite. We were also the first nation to clean up a complete nuclear-reactor meltdown, at Chalk River in 1952. The Chalk River thing was very
educational. We really know nuclear here. The nasty Chalk River reactor meltdown & cleanup, is a fascinating story:
I had thought
NATO was a dumb idea, and was just a silly historical artifact. I was *really* very wrong about that. REALLY. WRONG. I just did not understand how truly insane and awful, Russian political people could really be. They are
*NOTHING* like us at all. The correct model for Russian political people, is hyper-violent world of the USA gangsters of the 1930's. (The Watergate Guy, who wrote "Will", Gordon Liddy, came to speak at our University, and explained this to me.
It turns out he was spot-on correct, and all the other jabbering head-mouths were wrong. Curious how that occurs, is it not?)
Anyway, NATO has turned out to be exactly what we need, in the here and now. And the Prime Minister of Finland,
should study why Pearson (who was a real peace-nik, let's be clear), had Canada station a bunch of nuclear missiles on our territory, to deter Russian war-planning efforts. You don't fuck with Canada. We can be as blue-crazy (in the William
Wallace kind of crazed Celtic-way) as any Slavic folks. Maybe it's the Winter or something. If you can survive a Canadian Winter, then a nice warm "Nuclear Winter" seems no problem at all. We really, really understand and support the Ukrainians.
There are a *lot* of Ukrainian flags around here. Our landscape is a Ukrainian Flag. Ukraine made a major error, giving up all it's nuclear weapons. Nuclear weapons are necessary to ensure peace. It is that simple. Know
Here is the Canada role, in the founding history of NATO, from their website:
And here is a
link to history of St. Olga of Kiev (when Kiev was where the "King of all the Rus" monarchy was based, 1000 years ago.) St. Olga is the Patron Saint of Revenge. And I am not making a jest here:
We must study history. It is the detailed road-map, which shows us exactly how the hell we got to the curious place where we are right now.
And we need to embrace our nuclear history. In my personal case, it is close. My Mom's cousin
was directly involved in uranium-enrichment from the Elliot-Lake motherlode. The uranium from the Elliot Lake mine, was partially enriched, and then sent to that hillbilly site in USA, that was built to run the big gaseous diffusion factory. That
was where the 235 for the Trinity test, (and the Hiroshima device) came from - a machine my mom's cousin built. Runs in the family, I guess. In our case, hot rock enrichment is sort of family-business history. We don't run any centrifuges,
and we don't use any radio-hot material. But in Canada, science is Science - it's a bit of a religion here. My neighbour next road over, funded the Perimeter Institute (a theoretical physics chalk-hall kind of shop), where Steven Hawking
ended his days (before he went over the existential event-horizon.)
We all need to recognize that nuclear weapons & atomic bombs are "really, really good things to have". And unlike Madonna's boyfriends -
they are good both to have AND to hold. They are perfect machine devices for ensuring that greedy, gangster nutjob sadistic Russian fockwits, do not invade and destroy your Free Nation.
Lester Pearson -
a soft-spoken, bowtie-wearing Liberal peace-freak - had the genius to realize that there are times, when a sovereign nation needs the thing the French call the "Force de Frappe" - the "Strike Force", aka the Triad of Dissuasion, which De Gaulle insisted that
France develop and maintain. That Finnish Prime Minister, should study history, and not just knee-jerk respond to our World's tragic and silly current events.
Some history on the French efforts to build their "Force de Frappe":
They asked the USA for help, but the Americans told them to f*ck off because De Gaulle was such an astonishingly annoying pr/ck. But the French got it done, and it worked. Folks need to realize, everything we have that works, came from research
in the 1940's to the 1970's. It was a time of amazing technical, engineering and scientific progress. The entire Moon Landing effort, was designed and implemented in less than 10 years. We cannot seem to do big projects like this now.
Most stuff after the 1970's, is just deriviative work, various improvements, etc. Here is a link to a declassified US military document on French "Force De Frappe" (nuclear disuassion) technology, from 1966:
The appropriate course of action for Finland is to place 50 tactical, nuclear-armed 1-megaton yield nuclear missiles all along it's border with Russia. But not put any fuel in the missiles. Make that fact clear to the Russians. But have
the missiles configured to detonate without being fired, should the need arise. A Russian invasion, thus becomes very unlikely. And the rockets could be fueled at anytime, if requirements might change, based on events.
Si Vis Pacem,
Para Bellum. (Have we heard this idea before, maybe?)
[ May 18, 2022 ] - Fool's Paradise - Enjoy the scenic beauty of things, while it remains possible to do so. We seem to be on the cusp of the Great Apocalypse of
Maximum Stupidity, and there is little the average person can do to alter the forward flow of this strange, destructive Plan. Curious, indeed.
Could we just please at least terminate Vladimir Putin? We could drop the thermo-nuke from
space, and end that psychotic sadist, and his cabal of murderous hell-mongers? That would at least restore some balance, justice and goodness to our sad planet. No more talk or sanctions or chatterbot blah-blah-blah from head-mouths. Just
a few keystrokes, a launch-code, and some solid, effective results that would demonstrate that the World still had some sanity and capacity for justice and correct action.
It's time. Really. We could do this. "Gentleman,
we have the technology. We can end this murderous, parasitic monster, and make the future of the World into something positive, good, honourable and fine. Let's just do it. Let's to it now." I think I heard some
guy say this at a meeting in the Pentagon. Or maybe it was at that Air Force Base. Really. It's time for action. Talk-time is ending. Action-time is beginning. Cry Havoc. Go-code
Ok, so yes, this idea above, remains in the realm of fiction. And this is the other problem. Sanctions will not stop Russia, or alter it's behaviour, given the obvious pre-conditions that exist. We just have this
existing insane scenario that makes the world poorer, and causes whole cities of people to be killed, and it seems there is nothing we can actually do about it. This is very bad.
We were supposed to have this "United Nations" thing available to
address exactly this type of problem, but it turns out, that the "United Nations" is just another political fraud. And so we cannot make any real progress - at least until we can execute upon the kind of scenario described above.
the meantime, we really need to give Ukraine a much bigger Air Force, and some really serious fire-power and military hardware. If, of course, we want to have things like food, peace, prosperity and freedom remain available to people on this
[ May 13, 2022 ] - A Trip Around The Place - Busy times, checking & repairing properties. Spectacular weather, good times. We drove around various place in our local Homeland - and saw many Ukrainian flags.
Yellow and Blue. The Yellow is for the fields of sunflowers, and the blue is for the lovely blue sky. We have exactly the same colours here in the Great Wild North, as they do in Ukraine. And suddenly, the schools have all these Ukrainian
kids in them. We are welcoming them. They are really focused. They will be *really* great folks to have in our wild Canadian matrix.
And speaking of yellow - we need to bake all that yellowcake, and get those spinners a-spinning.
Plowshares into swords, yellowcake into hexafluoride, and swing, swing, swing...
Here that? That's the sound of our centrifuges spinning.
The winds of change, are about to become a hurricane. I've been to Helsinki. It is a very beautiful city.
[ May 6, 2022
] - Most Internet Traffic is Now Robots and Scams - And most trading activity on modern exchanges, is generated by AI's and algorithmic trading methods. And public opinion is being actively managed by what can only be described as "agency
This presents a range of serious problems and risks. The AI-driven stuff can be hacked in real-time, to do very bad things. And public-opinion can be hacked to create mass-fraud, and enable terror-wars that sane folks would
think are impossible.
Our IP# (supplied by our Internet provider), has had it's "reputation" damaged, by some sort of automated device, we suspect, so that "Cloudflare" (a site-security access-blocker firewall type tool) is now automatically blocking
our access to a Ukrainian site we were monitoring.
The world is getting both more nasty and much more stupid at the same time.
"Cloudflare" can be hacked this way, and turned into "CloudFAIL".
This is creating
strange and extreme risks, combined with curious opportunities.
Our access to a Ukrainian site has now been *blocked*, because this "Cloudflare" company (which offers firewall service to websites), has decided, using it's Artificial Intelligence tools,
that our IP#, (supplied by our internet service provider), is "has a bad reputation". What these means, of course, is that some clever boys - somewhere else - can spoof your IP#, and just put it onto a blizzard of junkmail or some NMAP scan-attempts
to break-in to a bunch of websites, and thus degrade the "reputation" of your IP# (IP# is basically your internet address - unique as a phone number.) This is a nasty, clever trick, we suspect.
We don't have bad software running at our
end (we monitor packets in and out), but by trashing the "reputation" of our IP#, this completely blocks us from accessing the Ukrainian information site.
Pretty clever, eh? The world is getting really nasty. Our primary interest
here, is to simply get the word out, that a co-ordinated attempt was made by Russian operatives in Ukraine, to steal a MANPAD (Man-Portable Air Defense) missile launcher, and use it to shoot down a Russian airlliner - and blame the attack on Ukrainians.
This would inflame Russian public opinion, and justify a large scale-up in the Russian Terror-War underway in Ukraine.
This is VERY BAD STUFF. We want to try to prevent this kind of ugly "FALSE FLAG" terrorist attack from occuring.
We want to prevent a Russian airliner full of innocent people from being killed by Putin's FSB goons.
Best way to prevent this - is to neutralize the value of the exercise. Make everyone aware that AN ATTEMPT WAS ALREADY MADE TO TRY TO
DO THIS. We know the name of the goon that was running the operation, and the Ukrainian-Russian "dual citizens" behind the attempted theft, have been already arrested by Ukrainian Law Enforcement.
But if and when a Russian airliner is
brought down by a Stinger missile or a Javalin anti-tank rocket, we want everyone to know that Ukraine is ACTIVELY TRYING TO PREVENT THIS terrorist-style attack, and that THIS WAS A PLANNED ACTION BY RUSSIAN AGENTS operating in Ukraine. (See May 1st
note below for details.)
And an attack has been made against our IP#, apparently - sufficient to make it impossible for us to access the Ukrainian information site where this latest "False Flag" terror attack attempt was reported.
[ May 5, 2022 ] - When in Danger or in Doubt, Shout & Sell & Try to Cash Out? - Markets are getting quite twitchy - running up 900 points in USA-land on Fed. Reserve interest rate increases on first day, and then crashing down more
than 1000 points next day. I've read 15 to 20 articles by pundits and portfolio-jockeys, none of whom mention what is driving this mad behaviour. It is the Russian Terror War in Ukraine, of course.
The US Federal Reserve is a sideshow.
A 50 basis point rate increase from a low starting point, is not too much to worry about. But loss of a very large section of planet-Earth's economy, and it's buying power and farm-production (ie *food* production), is a huge issue. Russia
is offline due to sanctions, and Ukraine's output is not available in any sort of predictable way. This is tragic and quite bad.
It's astonishing - I read pages of comments and public responses by folks who run money and manage financial enterprises
in USA and globally, and almost no one really grasps what a very big deal, the loss of Russian and Ukraine as peaceful partners, really is.
The disruptions that are to be caused by sanctions on Russian economic actions, and against actual economic
goods themselves - combined with the loss of Ukraine food and industrial output and trade - are going to be large and significant. We are all going to be hurt.
We believe that the USA and Canada stock markets are more accurately pricing in this
ugly reality today, May 5th, 2022, than they were just a few days ago. With the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 1063 points today, we look to have a real bear market underway, despite the buy-the-dip historical mentality.
stock market and the much bigger bond market, both domestic and all-the-World, are beginning to realize that a significant, non-trivial collapse of world trade and commercial activity cannot be consistant with rising commercial enterprise valuations.
The Russian Terror War in Ukraine is now doing great damage to Ukraine, and *will* begin to do great damage to Russia itself - and will also damage global prosperity and impair future global economic growth.
Every day this war goes on, makes
the World a poorer, and less stable place in which to live - and also to invest. Putin has unleashed a tragic and absurd madness. Russia will see it's economic level collapse along with Ukraine's, and the Western world will see
degraded asset valuations, lower growth and/or outright GDP shrinkage, along with prices rising because of real product scarity, and significant supply-chain disruption.
We had hoped sanity would prevail, and peace could be engineered in Ukraine - but
given the scale, extent and nature of the abuses that Russian forces have inflicted, this seems to be becoming less and less likely each day.
And when this real damage to global economics is combined with the beginning of a Federal Reserve (and UK and
Europe) "tightening cycle" now provably underway, and the "Covid-19" lockdowns in China (and China's refusal to buy and deploy Pfizer and/or Moderna vaccines), a truly toxic cocktail is thus going to be served to investors everywhere.
[ May 3, 2022 ] - Frederich Merz Has Ba//s of Steel - And he travelled without security protection, to Kyiv, to meet with Ukraine President Zelenskyy, the other World Leader who also has Ba//s of Steel. We understand the talks
(Bloomberg) -- German opposition leader Friedrich Merz had an hour-long meeting with Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy in Kyiv on Tuesday, amid a background of growing tension between the governments in Berlin and Kyiv.
The talk went “exceptionally well”, Merz’s spokesman later wrote on Twitter.
--- 30 ---
Please - Germany and Ukraine - no disputes or bad feelings, OK? Everyone in the World has to be on the same side in this fight.
Verstehst du mich? Putin's insane "Zombie" forces must be crushed and destroyed. The Future of Freedom for planet Earth, depends on this simple requirement. Putins wahnsinnige
„Zombie“-Kräfte müssen zermalmt und vernichtet werden. Die Zukunft der Freiheit für den Planeten Erde hängt von dieser einfachen Anforderung ab.
Безумные путинские «зомби» силы должны быть сокрушены и уничтожены.
Будущее свободы для планеты Земля зависит от этого простого
Germany; Let's get those Leopard tanks on the go, ok? Please? A few MiGs would also really make a difference. (The "Ghost of Kyiv" will live forever in our hearts and minds and history books.)
May 1, 2022 ] - False-Flag Faked Blame - but the Plan was for Real Murder & Terror.
The Russian Gangsters working for Putin had rigged this plan to steal a "MANPAD" (a Javelin or a Stinger portable missile), and use it to shoot down a civilian
airliner in Belarus or Russia itself. The idea would be to blame Ukraine "terrorists", and then launch a bigger, (maybe nuclear) attack on Ukraine.
This is really pure-fake nasty "Hitler-style" evil. This is a "False-Flag"
attack, and is sometimes known as "pretexting" - ie. you create a fake "pretext" for doing some sort of ugly, awful criminal action, using your national military. Hitler did this to start his invasion of Poland. Stalin of Russia was
his ally. But the world knows about this trick now. Everyone knows.
This is more dim-bulb evil being hatched by Putin's goon-squadrons of very-bad-people.
These Russian agents were going to kill
an airliner full of their own Russian citizens.
Except Ukrainian Intelligence agents have been waiting for this sort of bullsh/t, and caught the little traitors, who were planning to pull off this vicious, cruel and **stupid-evil** action.
to the details, in Ukrainian: (They even have the code-name of the Russian goon that was the controller of this mission..)
(We had the link to the Ukraine site URL in here, and we had to remove it, as putting in here, seems to have triggered a
device to trash our IP# 's "reputation", so that the our machines can no longer access the Ukrainian site. (see May 6th note above for more info.) )
Russian intelligence agents tried to steal a Stinger MANPADS to shoot down a plane carrying passengers in Russia or Belarus. This was
reported by the SBU. Ukrainian law enforcement
conducted a multi-stage special
operation to identify and neutralize enemy agents. Their group consisted of two
dual citizens and a recruited accomplice.
Their work was coordinated by Russian Alexander Tyuterev, who is a staff member
of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces and has the call sign "Marine".
[Ukrainian text: ]
Агенти російських спецслужб намагалися викрасти ПЗРК “Stinger”, щоб збити літак з пасажирами
на території Росії чи Білорусі.
Про це повідомляє СБУ.
Українські правоохоронці провели багатоетапну
спецоперацію, в ході якої виявили та нейтралізували ворожих агентів.
Їхня група складалася з двох осіб з подвійним громадянством та завербованого спільника. Координував їхню роботу росіянин Олександр Тютерев, який є кадровим співробітником головного
управління генштабу збройних сил РФ та має позивний «Морпех».
[ end Ukrainian text ]
We at GEMESYS Ltd. offer this information, as public service. This is some *really-bad-shit*. This Russian spy-goon was basically
planning to carry out a terrorist action that was the equiavalent of what Bin Laden did in the USA so as to give "pretext" for Putin to scale-up his Terror War in Ukraine.
This is very, very serious. Putin is willing to ***
Kill large numbers of his own Russian people *** just to continue to expand the insane warfare atrocity that is taking place in Ukraine.
This is just about as bad as it gets. The entire World community needs to understand
that this Putin character has to be removed, at whatever cost.
We are dealing with an absolutely evil person here, who is more dangerous than was Hitler.
It is better to stop this Putin person now, rather than wait until he tries to
kill the whole world.