[ May 25, 2022 ] This company reported good earnings results this morning, and so the stock price is up almost 2 dollars Cdn per share. Hilarious - Yesterday, we unloaded our margined trade (but kept the main position). I feel like that guy who turns on his windshield wipers on a sunny day in his new car, and can't figure out how to turn them off: They say to the world: "Dumb Guy! ... here is a Dumb Guy!..." over and over and over. What is interesting, is that the AI seemed to catch the turn, before it happened, even if the turn was trigger by the earnings beat. Buy stock. Make money... (or maybe not, eh?) That's ok, but I hate like hell to miss a turn, especially when it was handed to me by the technology, the technical factors, and the improving fundamentals, here in "Fortress North America." Dumb guy indeed.

[ May 24, 2022 ] - It will be a choppy time, we fear. It appears that bad results have leaked out, we suspect. Difficult times for everyone. We note that Credit-Swiss has now picked up coverage on Canadian Banks - their Analyst has put market-positive ratings on the Big Six - which probably in part accounts for their ugly weakness today. The professional Analysts are always wrong, for some curious reason, we find. God help the poor bastards who are holding "funds" and such - and losing 2% fees as well as the +20% losses that the sector (and the world) is now taking. All around this broken World, we are seeing Government henchmen try to hijack the profits of successful enterprises, since the finances of most Governments are so truly awful. The dangers that confront us now are manifest, from a global synchronized collapse in asset values, to the Third World War, (which we have better get moving on, unless we are keen to *lose* it!). We are certain now, that all-out war with Russia is inevitable. The idea in warfare, is to win, not to lose. We seem to have leaders that are seeking to have a minor, loss-making war, while Russia is showing a dangerous willingness to go "all in". We need stronger, more effective leaders, who are able to see the extreme danger this madness represents, and respond accordingly. (Note: I have been impressed with our Mr. Trudeau. He has shown courage and resolve, and has offered some serious weaponry to Ukraine. Good for him. He is maturing as a Leader. We may be OK. But we might also need to put the entire Dominion under arms, which is going to be interesting - and difficult.) The real problem is the USA. The Americans are in turmoil, and need to send out clear, focused messages. It is a time for unity, strength, and resolve. So far, this has not really been evident. We re-iterate, that *sanctions* will have counter-productive effects, and will *strengthen* not weaken, the propensity for Russia to behave in an outrageous and beligerent manner. Russia needs to remove Putin - but they have no way of doing so, short of using a Tokarev 7.62x25mm vote of non-confidence. They face difficult and uncertain times - as do we all.

[ May 23, 2022 ] Looks like the forecast might be working. (See the log-post for this date, 3 sections further down...)

[ May 19, 2022] We (well, our AI, actually...) are calling a bottom to the current brutal stock-market correction. It has been harsh. But we (and the AI) are taking the Buffet Approach to this. We have had the worst start to this year (by the S&P 500 in USA-land, down 17% roughly) since back to the 1940's. Seems to be a tad overdone. The inflation is being driven by *real scarcity*, not by knee-jerk price increases. This is actually a market postive - ie. the price-system doing it's job. We went hard long, all-in yesterday, and for the first time in a while, used some margin. (We typically avoid margin, like we avoid (mostly) options trading. Note: If someone can show us a good and sane way to go long the VIX, I would love to see the scheme. We have not figured out how to do that sensibly, yet.)

We post this screenshot (of our testbed equity which is not named) as public service. The AI says a turn is possible. We cannot yet put proper probabilities on this (but yes, we should determine a proper way to do that), but historically (and heuristically), this particular model seems to work the best.

And note: If Putin can be arrested, (or removed by some other means), and the illegal and horrifically stupid war in Ukraine can be ended, the market can be expected to have a serious bounce, as peace (and food surplus!) can become available again. Seriously, we think a reward of several billion US dollars (a fraction of the cost of his ugly, illegal war), should be offered to any person or group of persons that can remove that murderous criminal from his position of power. Seriously. The Osama Bin Laden reward was $20 million, IIRC, and a nice $20-billion (US dollars), for Putin's removal, might motivate a few folks with the ability, to get the job done. And the job *needs* to be done, as the World agrees it must, even if that tragic failure, the United Nations, is unable to do anything.
(Click on image to enlarge it, if you want.)

[ May 20, 2022 ] Update: Looks like another leg down in the making. We lightened up yesterday, driven by rules-of-thumb that mandate staged closure of offside positions. Oh my. Our concern, of course, is the curious lack of wisdom that we seem to see everywhere. Never in my own personal life, have I seen so much unwise action, being both proposed and implemented, by so many people and organizations, in so many places, simultaneously. It is very curious. China's "Zero Covid" policy is idiotic. Covid-19 is an airborne virus, and the Omicron variant is more contagious than a common cold. Trying to do "Zero Covid" with lockdowns, is like trying to put a fart in jail for smelling bad. It is simply moronic. China should import 3 billion doses of a proper mRNA vaccine, and give everyone three shots. We have had our three vaccines, and we are not even wearing masks anymore. Our Homeland has re-opened. If you don't want to take a vaccine, no problem. Go home and fucking die. We don't mind. Your choice, guy. This is the only sane model.

Control-Freak Governments, which disrespect Science and Human Reality, are toxic, stupid, and the obvious product of insane, mal-adjusted ignorant thugs. They are also very, very dangerous entities, which will likely bring about global war and associated economic and social destruction. Such destruction is un-necessary, and tragic, yet history shows that it seems to be baked-in, (or "hard-wired", as we techie types might say), to the human condition. Curiouser and curiouser. Maybe Bill Ackman is right - World War Three (the "Zombie War"?), looks like it has already started. The Russians are even selling T-shirts with the letter "Z" on them. Of course they are.

I suppose all I can do now, is go out and buy some more food and ammo. (I am only half-joking. We seem to have enough food, I suspect. ) I have this concern that as major down-shifts are made in the global money-supply, we might risk triggering a credit-collapse phenomenon. The result of such an event, if synchronized across several economies, could create an accellerating collapse in financial assets - like a global "run on the bank". This is, of course, an absurd and foolish outcome, which can be prevented by simply stopping doing the astonishingly stupid things that every major government seems to be doing. Just:

1) End the war in Ukraine, either by giving the Ukrainians every single weapons system we have, and/or by removing Putin. Easy.

2) Change leaders in China, and end Covid-Zero madness, and the Chinese import several billion proper Covid-19 vaccines, and immunize all their citizens with working mRNA vaccines, either Moderna or Pfizer/Biotech. ("Sinovac" does not work).

3) Engineer a return to "Free Trade" across the globe. TPP, NAFTA, whatever. Free Trade worked well. Tarrifs are abusive, economy-damaging taxes that encourage bad behaviour by junk companies and corrupt government henchmen.

4) Remove all stupid "sanctions" on every nation, everywhere. Sanctions to damage economic action, only create angry, poor, war-focused political entities. They are extremely stupid beyond belief, and should not be used. They only hurt small business, the poor, and the weak. The Cruel and the Evil governments benefit from sanctions. Remove *all* economic sanctions everywhere.

5) Engineer enlightened democracy models. Make people pay to vote. Don't want to vote? No problem. Go away. Voting should be a paid choice. You should *earn* the right to vote. Citizenship should be a high-privilege, not a right. Democracy is a good political model, but having every no-nothing doofus drive the democratic process, is insane. This engineers the "race-to-the-bottom" that we are seeing everywhere now.

6) Fix the Schools and get them back into the business of teaching *knowledge*, and not politics. End the curious "war on boys", allow the girls to be girls if they want to be, and do not program sexual action on the young kids, as corrupt companies like Disney are trying to do. Disney should just be ended. End all the public LGBQTxyz nonsense, and require the weirdly gruesome stuff to be a private matter, between consenting adults. Allow full sexual freedom, but end the relentless public promotion of deeply un-natural human behaviour. This is damaging the world, and creating obvious concern among the "Normies". The world should not be degraded into being a Hieronymus Bosch hell-scene. Sex and religion should be personal things that are not publically promoted as political models for kids to follow. You can be free to be as gay/dyke/trans crazy as you want to be - but we should not promote it as a lifestyle-choice to public-school children. That is just a really bad idea.

(But the promotion and proselytizing of rank weirdness and hyper-stupid behaviour - which has been going on since the 1980's - explains a great deal of the over-the-top madness and butt-faced ignorance we are seeing today, in our modern world, we suspect. No one can say this sort of thing publically, and that probably makes it all the more certain to be a key truth behind the failures and foolishness we are seeing everywhere. )
---

Last Gleaming of the Northern Twilight. At the End of Things, there is often great beauty. Enjoy what remains, while you can. :)

Make no mistake - we are strengthened by the fine and good power of our weapons. We value them greatly. But the deep truth is, we are also driven by Beauty, like most honourable people truly are. Beauty - and the joy it brings - gives us strength, and lets our weapons be deployed with accuracy, and justice.

The Problem: Russia Is Controlled by a Hitler-Clone:

Here is the current problem:  Crazy-evil Russian loon, controls Russia, makes Terror War on Ukraine, uses wild lies as pretext for horrific, insane invasion.

The research on Propaganda shows conclusively that insane lies, told often enough, and in controlled conditions, where no other views are heard, can be completely successful.  Russians and mental lightweights believe the Putin Lies.

Hitler and his Gang were evil, but clever, aware social technicians.

The Solution: Spin our Yellowcake into 85% U-235, give devices to Europeans seeking defense against Putin's Terrorists.

Solution to this Problem:  Radical but simple solution.   European nations, including Ukraine and Sweden and Finland, all must be allocated nuclear weapons, sufficient to discourage Russian aggression.  This is only option to ensure peace.  If Russian gangsters think their army is stronger, they will invade and try to steal the land and kill the people.

If they know this will bring flaming destruction down upon them, they will refrain from this insane action, and will seek to project their power, using economic means.

We must arm all NATO nations, and any democratic nation bordering Russia, with a significant nuclear weapons arsenal.  

The entire history of "deterence theory", and the history of the violent 20th century, shows that this option will ensure peace.

You cannot have peace if the power-equation is deeply imbalanced.  If Russia is much stronger than it's weaker neighbours, history - all Russian history - shows that the weaker will be invaded and subjegated and their freedom will be crushed.   Only if Russia is directly opposed with extreme and unlimited destructive force, is there any ongoing chance for peace.

We don't need to nuke Russia.  But every neighbouring nation must have the ability to destroy all invading Russian forces.

Once that balance is achieved (Russia already has 2000 to 3000 nuclear warhead weapons),. then peace can be engineered and maintained. 

This is the only possible end-solution here.

Russian history - and the recent actions of Putin - have proven the clear truth of this reality, beyond any doubt.

We have mountains uranium ore, and warehouses full of yellow-cake.    We just need to build a few hundred Hiroshima-grade U-235 (TNT cannon-style devices), and offer these to all the front line European democracies.

Peace becomes an attractive option.  Russia withdraws from Ukraine.  Putin is arrested and charged with war-crimes by his own people, and sanctions can be lifted.  Peace is the result.  It returns, and it prevails.   But only if balance can be achieved.   Europe needs 2000 to 3000 active, deployed atomic warheads, just like Russia now has.

This is the only option that will have a chance of success of returning peace, we believe.

The Perfect Beauty of the Well-Tempered Centrifuge...

Growing Madness: Russia is Insane, Markets Gyrate, Politicians Talk, Cities Burn, and Anger Grows.

Ukraine Needs Jets.

Arm Ukraine with everything we have. And then more. Ukraine Forces must be give *ALL* modern weapon systems, and must repel the Russian Terrorists. Otherwise, the Terrorists win. This cannot be allowed to occur.

[ May 25, 2022 ] - Dumb Guy - Sold the leveraged part of my position, which I put on, driven by the AI uptick, because I just felt too much risk.   Dumb and dumber, since the company we testbed with, reported a solid earnings beat, and the stock is zooming up.  Bugger.  At least we still have a truckload of the original postion, in a couple of different portfolios.  Pretty funny - I can predict the future reasonably well, but I still am not yet very good at trading it profitably.  :/

Canada is sending 20,000 155mm artillery shells to Ukraine, for the big M777's.   Rock on, guys.  Defend the Homeland from the "Zombie" forces.  No-one lives forever.  If you die fighting the forces of pure evil, your life (and your death) have real meaning.  But of course, do your best to "Come Back Alive!".   Ukrainians are showing the world what true human purpose and honest courage looks like.  We should send them a bunch of our F-18's (and some ASLM's) to sink the Russian murder-ships infesting the Black Sea, and trying to starve the World of Ukrainian food exports.   Putin's Russia has become a Terror State.   Russia should be declared a "State Sponsor of Terrorism", and it's ports should be blockaded by a UN-authorized military action.

 

[ May 24, 2022 ] - World Going Dark, New Leaders Needed - We have to get out our horses, and ride out to where Cincinnatus is running his farm - and beg him to come and lead our armies.   The times demand change.

https://www.mountvernon.org/library/digitalhistory/digital-encyclopedia/article/cincinnatus/

[ May 23, 2022 ] - Shaken - and Stirred-Up - Boris Bondarev:  Heroic Teller of Truth. Russian diplomat resigns in disgust because of Putin's Terror War & Lavrov's Lies.  Good for Mr. Bondarev.   The Invasion and murderous, illegal Terror-War against Ukraine by Russian military forces, is pure madness, and has set Russia back into a dark-age of cruel violence and economic isolation.  It is deeply wrong, it will gain nothing for Russia, and it was completely un-necessary.  Mr. Bondarev has done the right thing by speaking out against it, and will now walk a dangerous path.

https://www.npr.org/2022/05/23/1100731559/russian-diplomat-un-quits-ashamed

Strange and sad times for many.

Meanwhile, back at the AI (Artificial Intelligence) Ranch... The forecast from the AI seems to be working.  All Cdn markets closed today for Victoria Day (We love our old, dead Queen Victoria.  She helped create our Homeland.)     The US Bank Stocks caught fire today.  Up and away, it seems.   The AI called a bottom on Friday.  Curious.  It is mindless, but it is also better (mostly) than the community of pundits and analysts.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/jpmorgan-fuels-rally-in-banks-and-the-us-stock-market-1.1769625  

[ May 22, 2022 ] - The Great Retracement - Markets appear to be in synchronized downshift mode.  "Retracement" is the term.  We are of course concerned that this may be the "Great Retracement", in which the stimulus-fueled gains of the last 10 years, are unwound - perhaps in a much shorter time frame than they were built up.

Synchronized events of negative market motivators are:  Idiotic and insane Russian war-action in Urkraine.  This is abuse and evil and madness which is true "Black Swan" stuff.  It destroys Russia as a political and economic entity, and it costs the world food, customers, and productive producers.  It is madness.    But it gets worse, when Covid-Zero in China, and the supply and production problems that this causes, combined with the global high-inflation that the money-supply expansion has caused, and that thus provokes the USA (and others, of course), to raise administered interest rates.  Probably a lot more than they are already now.  Oh, and we are seeing an "oil shock" to the global economy, that is almost the same intensity that we saw in 1973, when the Saudi's hired a US consulting firm to tell them where to price their oil  (Recall those third-year ECON courses:  viz: "Products Which Have Demand Characteristics Which Exhibit High Degree of Price Inelasticity "  - like both insulin and gasoline do?   You can set the price at just about any level, and roughly the same amount of product will be consumed.  Except that if the market-clearing price is too high, you start to see your customers begin to die off.)

Combine this nasty economic storm, with the political turmoil that is evident in every nation now, and you get a clear algorithm for synchronized ** market retracement ** - which of course, we have to call "The Great Retracement", because that just seems to be what it needs to be called - for obvious political and social-scientific reasons.

The one interesting thing, is that our mindless AI has tilted up.  Just ran it with Friday's close numbers, and we still get the curve showing a bottom, and a tiny tilt upwards.  

So we may be at - or near - a local bottom.  We have already lost between 20% to 30% from the high-water price-levels of 4 to 6 months back (depending on whether you consider the DJIA and S&P or the Nasdaq Index as your benchmark, against which you measure your tracking error).

Let's be clear.  We are worried - and reduced a large part of the leveraged position we took on. (We are *always* too early, in both entering and exiting positions.   Just seems to be that way...  I just seem to see stuff before others, and have not yet learned sufficient patience...)

But the AI is clear.  It says we are primed for an up-move.    I can post this on a Sunday, and now we will take the old vintage Lincoln out for a drive.    Best 73's.

[ May 20, 2022 ] - Are We Not Men? - We are down low.   And we worry we might have brought a knife to a gunfight. 

"Rome is your fwiend!"

[ May 19, 2022 ] - When the World is Running Down... - Go long.    Make your bet on the Power Rangers of Freedom.  :)

We killed Hitler in his bunker once. (Our Dad's and Mom's did it, actually.)   We just have to do it again.  Hitler Version 2.0 is named Vladimir Putin.   You know where he lives, right?

See, now, it's our turn.   Plowshares into yellowcake, yellowcake in to UF6, boil the UF6 in a steam-kettle, and whisk the puff into the centrifuges.   Spin-baby-spin, and out comes the "Dust of Freedom Dash 235".  A kilo or two at each end of a binary doublewhumper cannon, some TNT, a charged battery, and some fast electronics to make sure each *whump* happens at the same time, and quote me that Hindi scripture, eh?  "I have become Freedom, the Creator of New Worlds!"   Duck, yeah!  (or something like that...)

See, it is gonna get interesting, when any kid with a 240-volt 3-phase connection to the grid, a pile of hot rocks, and some welding kit, a machine-shop, and some chem-lab stuff, is able to fab his own "Davy Crocket" rockets.   Unless we let the Russians kill the whole world, and burn down all the libraries, the Blue-Genie of Science is now out in the world.   And with Science there is real Power, and with some funding, the Power can be converted into Freedom.  Real, serious tangible Freedom.   Because the prime-driver of science advancement, has always been weapons research.  Yes, this is true.  Really.    Almost all major science and industrial development action, has been driven by weapons research. 

And remember, Libraries will get you thru times of no money, better than Money will get you thru times of no Libraries.  Ask the kids at the schools in Mariupol, if you doubt this truth.  Oh, wait.. they are all dead, aren't they?  Well, go make some more.   Get busy. 

And about NATO: Most folks don't even know that NATO was a Canadian idea.   And that Lester Pearson, defeated the Conservative Government of John Diefenbaker, because Pearson INSISTED UPON having Bomarc nuclear missiles ON CANDIAN TERRITORY - here, able to launch against any invading Russian bombers.    The Tories wimped-out, and Pearson's Liberals engineered a "No Confidence" defeat of the Conservatives in Parliament.  This saved us from nuclear attack, we suspect (but cannot prove, of course.)   The Tory PM, Diefenbaker, was an unwise tragic fool, despite being able to play the part of what appeared to be, a good and honourable statesman.  So sad. Really sad, actually.)  

Pearson probably saved Canada, but history gives him little credit.  He might have actually saved the world, also.  Trudeau (the father of the current PM), was another arrogant ass, much like "Dief the Chief" (god help us),  It is the man, not the Party, who matters, our history has taught us...

NATO was crafted to prevent insane, (and planned - we know this for a fact, based on our intelligence info) Russian nuclear attack on North America.   The Russians can simply get batshit crazy, because of their awful, twisted, and horribly nasty government and spy-system apparatus (goes back to Czarist times, truth be told.)  Hell, probably goes back to St. ("Kill them All!") Olga of Kiev.   The Russians can be crazy evil - much like the Germans can.  It's a family fight, after all.  Know this.

NATO saved us - and probably the USA and England (the UK) also.  Post-War Europe also got saved.  Trudeau version 1.0 wanted to exit NATO, and focus on spending slush-money in Canada to support folks in Quebec.   Then, someone explained the World to him, and he got wisdom (probably Pearson did this, we don't know who actually.)

Lester Pearson, the Liberal Prime Minister, was a careful genius.  He was a quiet, funny guy, spoke with a lisp, and had an IQ like Issac Newton, it looks like, in retrospect.  He was a truly brilliant political operative, and a man of astonishing vision, integrity, and an actual true genius - much like John A. MacDonald, our first Prime Minister, and the man responsible for creating the Dominion of Canada.  MacDonald was a Scotish Tory who drank too much, had a pretty but invalid wife whom he loved deeply.  He had a hot temper, and killed a kid in a duel when he was 18.  (He deeply regretted this, and was cleared of the crime, by a sympathetic Judge.) 

Pearson was a strong, peace-seeking Liberal, who wore a really goofy looking bow-tie, and came across as a Walter Mitty character, but who had a mind like a Caesar, and who armed Canada with nuclear weapons when it became necessary to do so.  Canada was by necessity, technologically advanced.  Canada was the third nation to launch a satellite, (After Russian and USA did) and it was a *working* television communications satellite.  We were also the first nation to clean up a complete nuclear-reactor meltdown, at Chalk River in 1952.   The Chalk River thing was very educational.  We really know nuclear here. The nasty Chalk River reactor meltdown & cleanup, is a fascinating story:

https://www.cns-snc.ca/media/history/nrx.html

I had thought NATO was a dumb idea, and was just a silly historical artifact.  I was *really* very wrong about that.  REALLY.  WRONG.   I just did not understand how truly insane and awful, Russian political people could really be.  They are *NOTHING* like us at all.  The correct model for Russian political people, is hyper-violent world of the USA gangsters of the 1930's.  (The Watergate Guy, who wrote "Will", Gordon Liddy, came to speak at our University, and explained this to me.  It turns out he was spot-on correct, and all the other jabbering head-mouths were wrong.   Curious how that occurs, is it not?)

Anyway, NATO has turned out to be exactly what we need, in the here and now.  And the Prime Minister of Finland, should study why Pearson (who was a real peace-nik, let's be clear), had Canada station a bunch of nuclear missiles on our territory, to deter Russian war-planning efforts.   You don't fuck with Canada.  We can be as blue-crazy (in the William Wallace kind of crazed Celtic-way) as any Slavic folks.  Maybe it's the Winter or something.  If you can survive a Canadian Winter, then a nice warm "Nuclear Winter" seems no problem at all.  We really, really understand and support the Ukrainians. There are a *lot* of Ukrainian flags around here.  Our landscape is a Ukrainian Flag.   Ukraine made a major error, giving up all it's nuclear weapons.  Nuclear weapons are necessary to ensure peace.  It is that simple.  Know this fact.

Here is the Canada role, in the founding history of NATO, from their website:

https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/declassified_161511.htm

And here is a link to history of St. Olga of Kiev (when Kiev was where the "King of all the Rus" monarchy was based, 1000 years ago.)  St. Olga is the Patron Saint of Revenge.   And I am not making a jest here:

http://www.todayifoundout.com/index.php/2014/01/saint-buried-people-alive-burned-city-revenge/

We must study history.  It is the detailed road-map, which shows us exactly how the hell we got to the curious place where we are right now.

And we need to embrace our nuclear history.  In my personal case, it is close.  My Mom's cousin was directly involved in uranium-enrichment from the Elliot-Lake motherlode.  The uranium from the Elliot Lake mine, was partially enriched, and then sent to that hillbilly site in USA, that was built to run the big gaseous diffusion factory.  That was where the 235 for the Trinity test, (and the Hiroshima device) came from - a machine my mom's cousin built.  Runs in the family, I guess.  In our case, hot rock enrichment is sort of family-business history.   We don't run any centrifuges, and we don't use any radio-hot material.  But in Canada, science is Science - it's a bit of a religion here.   My neighbour next road over, funded the Perimeter Institute  (a theoretical physics chalk-hall kind of shop), where Steven Hawking ended his days (before he went over the existential event-horizon.)   

We all need to recognize that nuclear weapons & atomic bombs are "really, really good things to have".  And unlike Madonna's boyfriends - they are good both to have AND to hold.  They are perfect machine devices for ensuring that greedy, gangster nutjob sadistic Russian fockwits, do not invade and destroy your Free Nation. 

Lester Pearson - a soft-spoken, bowtie-wearing Liberal peace-freak - had the genius to realize that there are times, when a sovereign nation needs the thing the French call the "Force de Frappe" - the "Strike Force", aka the Triad of Dissuasion, which De Gaulle insisted that France develop and maintain.    That Finnish Prime Minister, should study history, and not just knee-jerk respond to our World's tragic and silly current events.

Some history on the French efforts to build their "Force de Frappe":  They asked the USA for help, but the Americans told them to f*ck off because De Gaulle was such an astonishingly annoying pr/ck.  But the French got it done, and it worked.  Folks need to realize, everything we have that works, came from research in the 1940's to the 1970's.   It was a time of amazing technical, engineering and scientific progress.   The entire Moon Landing effort, was designed and implemented in less than 10 years.  We cannot seem to do big projects like this now.   Most stuff after the 1970's, is just deriviative work, various improvements, etc.   Here is a link to a declassified US military document on French "Force De Frappe" (nuclear disuassion) technology, from 1966:

https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/citations/ADA488151

The appropriate course of action for Finland is to place 50 tactical, nuclear-armed 1-megaton yield nuclear missiles all along it's border with Russia.  But not put any fuel in the missiles.  Make that fact clear to the Russians.  But have the missiles configured to detonate without being fired, should the need arise.   A Russian invasion, thus becomes very unlikely.  And the rockets could be fueled at anytime, if requirements might change, based on events.

Si Vis Pacem, Para Bellum.  (Have we heard this idea before, maybe?)

[ May 18, 2022 ] - Fool's Paradise - Enjoy the scenic beauty of things, while it remains possible to do so.   We seem to be on the cusp of the Great Apocalypse of Maximum Stupidity, and there is little the average person can do to alter the forward flow of this strange, destructive Plan.  Curious, indeed.

Could we just please at least terminate Vladimir Putin?   We could drop the thermo-nuke from space, and end that psychotic sadist, and his cabal of murderous hell-mongers?  That would at least restore some balance, justice and goodness to our sad planet.  No more talk or sanctions or chatterbot blah-blah-blah from head-mouths.  Just a few keystrokes, a launch-code, and some solid, effective results that would demonstrate that the World still had some sanity and capacity for justice and correct action.

It's time.  Really.  We could do this.   "Gentleman, we have the technology.  We can end this murderous, parasitic monster, and make the future of the World into something positive, good, honourable and fine.  Let's just do it.   Let's to it now."   I think I heard some guy say this at a meeting in the Pentagon.   Or maybe it was at that Air Force Base.    Really.  It's time for action.  Talk-time is ending.   Action-time is beginning.   Cry Havoc.   Go-code Green.

---

Ok, so yes, this idea above, remains in the realm of fiction.  And this is the other problem.  Sanctions will not stop Russia, or alter it's behaviour, given the obvious pre-conditions that exist.  We just have this existing insane scenario that makes the world poorer, and causes whole cities of people to be killed, and it seems there is nothing we can actually do about it.  This is very bad.

We were supposed to have this "United Nations" thing available to address exactly this type of problem, but it turns out, that the "United Nations" is just another political fraud.   And so we cannot make any real progress - at least until we can execute upon the kind of scenario described above. 

In the meantime, we really need to give Ukraine a much bigger Air Force, and some really serious fire-power and military hardware.    If, of course, we want to have things like food, peace, prosperity and freedom remain available to people on this planet.

[ May 13, 2022 ] - A Trip Around The Place - Busy times, checking & repairing properties.  Spectacular weather, good times.  We drove around various place in our local Homeland - and saw many Ukrainian flags.  Yellow and Blue.  The Yellow is for the fields of sunflowers, and the blue is for the lovely blue sky.  We have exactly the same colours here in the Great Wild North, as they do in Ukraine.  And suddenly, the schools have all these Ukrainian kids in them.   We are welcoming them.  They are really focused.  They will be *really* great folks to have in our wild Canadian matrix.

And speaking of yellow - we need to bake all that yellowcake, and get those spinners a-spinning.  Plowshares into swords, yellowcake into hexafluoride, and swing, swing, swing...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r2S1I_ien6A

Here that?  That's the sound of our centrifuges spinning.  

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7IjgZGhHrYY

The winds of change, are about to become a hurricane.  I've been to Helsinki.  It is a very beautiful city.

[ May 6, 2022 ] - Most Internet Traffic is Now Robots and Scams - And most trading activity on modern exchanges, is generated by AI's and algorithmic trading methods.   And public opinion is being actively managed by what can only be described as "agency operatives".

This presents a range of serious problems and risks.  The AI-driven stuff can be hacked in real-time, to do very bad things.  And public-opinion can be hacked to create mass-fraud, and enable terror-wars that sane folks would think are impossible.

Our IP# (supplied by our Internet provider), has had it's "reputation" damaged, by some sort of automated device, we suspect, so that "Cloudflare" (a site-security access-blocker firewall type tool) is now automatically blocking our access to a Ukrainian site we were monitoring.  

The world is getting both more nasty and much more stupid at the same time.

"Cloudflare" can be hacked this way, and turned into "CloudFAIL".

This is creating strange and extreme risks, combined with curious opportunities.

Our access to a Ukrainian site has now been *blocked*, because this "Cloudflare" company (which offers firewall service to websites), has decided, using it's Artificial Intelligence tools, that our IP#, (supplied by our internet service provider), is "has a bad reputation".  What these means, of course, is that some clever boys - somewhere else - can spoof your IP#, and just put it onto a blizzard of junkmail or some NMAP scan-attempts to break-in to a bunch of websites, and thus degrade the "reputation" of your IP#  (IP# is basically your internet address - unique as a phone number.)   This is a nasty, clever trick, we suspect.

We don't have bad software running at our end (we monitor packets in and out), but by trashing the "reputation" of our IP#, this completely blocks us from accessing the Ukrainian information site.

Pretty clever, eh?   The world is getting really nasty.   Our primary interest here, is to simply get the word out, that a co-ordinated attempt was made by  Russian operatives in Ukraine, to steal a MANPAD (Man-Portable Air Defense) missile launcher, and use it to shoot down a Russian airlliner - and blame the attack on Ukrainians.   This would inflame Russian public opinion, and justify a large scale-up in the Russian Terror-War underway in Ukraine.

This is VERY BAD STUFF.   We want to try to prevent this kind of ugly "FALSE FLAG" terrorist attack from occuring.  We want to prevent a Russian airliner full of innocent people from being killed by Putin's FSB goons.

Best way to prevent this - is to neutralize the value of the exercise.  Make everyone aware that AN ATTEMPT WAS ALREADY MADE TO TRY TO DO THIS.  We know the name of the goon that was running the operation, and the Ukrainian-Russian "dual citizens" behind the attempted theft, have been already arrested by Ukrainian Law Enforcement.

But if and when a Russian airliner is brought down by a Stinger missile or a Javalin anti-tank rocket, we want everyone to know that Ukraine is ACTIVELY TRYING TO PREVENT THIS terrorist-style attack, and that THIS WAS A PLANNED ACTION BY RUSSIAN AGENTS operating in Ukraine.  (See May 1st note below for details.)

And an attack has been made against our IP#, apparently - sufficient to make it impossible for us to access the Ukrainian information site where this latest "False Flag" terror attack attempt was reported.

Serious stuff.

[ May 5, 2022 ] - When in Danger or in Doubt, Shout & Sell & Try to Cash Out? - Markets are getting quite twitchy - running up 900 points in USA-land on Fed. Reserve interest rate increases on first day, and then crashing down more than 1000 points next day.   I've read 15 to 20 articles by pundits and portfolio-jockeys, none of whom mention what is driving this mad behaviour.  It is the Russian Terror War in Ukraine, of course. 

The US Federal Reserve is a sideshow.   A 50 basis point rate increase from a low starting point, is not too much to worry about.   But loss of a very large section of planet-Earth's economy, and it's buying power and farm-production (ie *food* production), is a huge issue.  Russia is offline due to sanctions, and Ukraine's output is not available in any sort of predictable way.  This is tragic and quite bad.

It's astonishing - I read pages of comments and public responses by folks who run money and manage financial enterprises in USA and globally, and almost no one really grasps what a very big deal, the loss of Russian and Ukraine as peaceful partners, really is. 

The disruptions that are to be caused by sanctions on Russian economic actions, and against actual economic goods themselves - combined with the loss of Ukraine food and industrial output and trade - are going to be large and significant.  We are all going to be hurt.

We believe that the USA and Canada stock markets are more accurately pricing in this ugly reality today, May 5th, 2022, than they were just a few days ago.  With the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 1063 points today, we look to have a real bear market underway, despite the buy-the-dip historical mentality.

A stock market and the much bigger bond market, both domestic and all-the-World, are beginning to realize that a  significant, non-trivial collapse of world trade and commercial activity cannot be consistant with rising commercial enterprise valuations.

The Russian Terror War in Ukraine is now doing great damage to Ukraine, and *will* begin to do great damage to Russia itself - and will also damage global prosperity and impair future global economic growth. 

Every day this war goes on, makes the World a poorer, and less stable place in which to live - and also to invest.    Putin has unleashed a tragic and absurd madness.    Russia will see it's economic level collapse along with Ukraine's, and the Western world will see degraded asset valuations, lower growth and/or outright GDP shrinkage, along with prices rising because of real product scarity, and significant supply-chain disruption.

We had hoped sanity would prevail, and peace could be engineered in Ukraine - but given the scale, extent and nature of the abuses that Russian forces have inflicted, this seems to be becoming less and less likely each day.

And when this real damage to global economics is combined with the beginning of a Federal Reserve (and UK and Europe) "tightening cycle" now provably underway, and the "Covid-19" lockdowns in China (and China's refusal to buy and deploy Pfizer and/or Moderna vaccines), a truly toxic cocktail is thus going to be served to investors everywhere.  

Madness.

[ May 3, 2022 ] - Frederich Merz Has Ba//s of Steel - And he travelled without security protection, to Kyiv, to meet with Ukraine President Zelenskyy, the other World Leader who also has Ba//s of Steel.   We understand the talks went well.  

(Bloomberg) -- German opposition leader Friedrich Merz had an hour-long meeting with Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy in Kyiv on Tuesday, amid a background of growing tension between the governments in Berlin and Kyiv. 

The talk went “exceptionally well”, Merz’s spokesman later wrote on Twitter.

--- 30 ---

Please - Germany and Ukraine - no disputes or bad feelings, OK?  Everyone in the World has to be on the same side in this fight.   Verstehst du mich?  Putin's insane "Zombie" forces must be crushed and destroyed.  The Future of Freedom for planet Earth, depends on this simple requirement.  Putins wahnsinnige „Zombie“-Kräfte müssen zermalmt und vernichtet werden. Die Zukunft der Freiheit für den Planeten Erde hängt von dieser einfachen Anforderung ab.

Безумные путинские «зомби» силы должны быть сокрушены и уничтожены. 
Будущее свободы для планеты Земля зависит от этого простого требования.

Germany; Let's get those Leopard tanks on the go, ok?  Please?  A few MiGs would also really make a difference.  (The "Ghost of Kyiv" will live forever in our hearts and minds and history books.)

[ May 1, 2022 ] - False-Flag Faked Blame - but the Plan was for Real Murder & Terror.

The Russian Gangsters working for Putin had rigged this plan to steal a "MANPAD" (a Javelin or a Stinger portable missile), and use it to shoot down a civilian airliner in Belarus or Russia itself.  The idea would be to blame Ukraine "terrorists", and then launch a bigger, (maybe nuclear) attack on Ukraine.

This is really pure-fake nasty "Hitler-style" evil.  This is a "False-Flag" attack, and is sometimes known as "pretexting" - ie. you create a fake "pretext" for doing some sort of ugly, awful criminal action, using your national military.   Hitler did this to start his invasion of Poland.   Stalin of Russia was his ally.    But the world knows about this trick now.   Everyone knows.

This is more dim-bulb evil being hatched by Putin's goon-squadrons of very-bad-people.

These Russian agents were going to kill an airliner full of their own Russian citizens.

Except Ukrainian Intelligence agents have been waiting for this sort of bullsh/t, and caught the little traitors, who were planning to pull off this vicious, cruel and **stupid-evil** action.

Link to the details, in Ukrainian:  (They even have the code-name of the Russian goon that was the controller of this mission..)

(We had the link to the Ukraine site URL in here, and we had to remove it, as putting in here, seems to have triggered a device to trash our IP# 's "reputation", so that the our machines can no longer access the Ukrainian site.  (see May 6th note above for more info.) )

English Translation:

Russian intelligence agents tried to steal a Stinger MANPADS to shoot down a plane carrying passengers in Russia or Belarus. This was 
reported by the SBU. Ukrainian law enforcement conducted a multi-stage special
operation to identify and neutralize enemy agents. Their group consisted of two
dual citizens and a recruited accomplice.
Their work was coordinated by Russian Alexander Tyuterev, who is a staff member
of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces and has the call sign "Marine".

[End translation]

[Ukrainian text: ]

Агенти російських спецслужб намагалися викрасти ПЗРК “Stinger”, щоб збити літак з пасажирами на території Росії чи Білорусі.

Про це повідомляє СБУ.

Українські правоохоронці провели багатоетапну спецоперацію, в ході якої виявили та нейтралізували ворожих агентів.

Їхня група складалася з двох осіб з подвійним громадянством та завербованого спільника. Координував їхню роботу росіянин Олександр Тютерев, який є кадровим співробітником головного управління генштабу збройних сил РФ та має позивний «Морпех».

[ end Ukrainian text ]

----

We at GEMESYS Ltd. offer this information, as public service.  This is some *really-bad-shit*.  This Russian spy-goon was basically planning to carry out a terrorist action that was the equiavalent of what Bin Laden did in the USA so as to give "pretext" for Putin to scale-up his Terror War in Ukraine.

This is very, very serious.  Putin is willing to *** Kill large numbers of his own Russian people *** just to continue to expand the insane warfare atrocity that is taking place in Ukraine.

This is just about as bad as it gets.   The entire World community needs to understand that this Putin character has to be removed, at whatever cost.

We are dealing with an absolutely evil person here, who is more dangerous than was Hitler.

It is better to stop this Putin person now, rather than wait until he tries to kill the whole world.

The Germans have had a ***very good idea***. Combine the Howitzer, with a Panzer - and then ***lend-lease them to Ukraine!***. We concur. This unit - called the “Panzerhaubitzen 2000” - is exactly what the technical specialists require. Fast, long-range gun, and built to German quality. Est Est Est.

We sincerely hope the Ukraine forces can get 40 or 50 of these wonderful, modern "Panzers". Very, very good idea, Herr Scholz!

(Now, if we can just get Canada to offer Ukraine a few of those lovely Australian FA-18's we picked up last year on eBay.mil. Reports are they work real good - the Aussies kept them in very good shape, apparently. )

Page down to "weblog" section, see Apr. 29th, 2022 section, for BBC story on young female reporter killed in her Kyiv apartment by a Russian cruise-missile. Putin is truly pure evil. We must help Ukraine - all the world must help to defeat this evil monster, Vladimir Putin. This is job-1 for planet Earth. Sanctions are stupid. We should rain missiles down on where Putin is. Every nation should engage this important and necessary task. Really.

Vladimir, you know, we are going to get you. We are going to knock you off your toilet. And then, you are going to go to jail - or the graveyard. We will get you.

Владимир, знаешь, мы тебя достанем. Мы собираемся сбить тебя с твоего унитаза. А потом ты отправишься в тюрьму или на кладбище!

The U.N. (United Nations) is actually ENABLING Russian Murder Squadrons in Ukraine. We need to FIX the UN. It is Badly Broken.

We have some *very* effective military hardware. A squadron of F-18's, equipped with latest LRASMs could erase the Russian "Black Sea" fleet in 15 minutes. And with current anti-aircraft missiles, we could clear Ukraine skys of Russian bombers and other murder-jets, in 10 minutes.

We could get all the key work done in half-an-hour before breakfast, and still have time for some coffee and toast.

If we allow Ukraine to be destroyed and enslaved by Russian Death-Squads, Moscow will eventually be burnt to the ground, and we will have World War Three.

Helping Ukraine repel and remove Russian Terrorists now, is the better, lower-risk option.

Really. (Click on image to enlarge it. See the Apr. 23rd PM note for the "King Arthur" toolset...)

This is an article, that was published in the Wall Street Journal Apr. 21, 2022, and was written by the Defense Minister of the Government of Ukraine.  It is behind a *paywall* on the WSJ, so I reprint it here, as it is of critical importance and is in the public interest.

----

The U.N. Is an Enabler of Russian War Crimes

A permanent member of the Security Council invaded Ukraine. The free world needs to fight back.

April 21, 2022 1:07 pm Eastern Standard Time
 
Kyiv, Ukraine

The world was horrified by the mass killing of innocent civilians in Bucha. Russian soldiers violated all existing rules and laws of war, raping children and torturing women and men, shooting them execution style. Similar crimes were committed in Kharkiv, Mariupol, Chernihiv and in Kramatorsk, where Russian forces fired a Tochka-U ballistic missile on a railway station filled with 4,000 civilians, mostly women and children. 

Among the casualties of Russia’s war on Ukraine has been the postwar system of global order and security. Russia has done everything that the international security institutions were created to prevent.

How can the United Nations Security Council, on which Moscow has a permanent seat, live up to its mission to maintain peace? What kind of security and cooperation is possible on the Continent when one participating state of the Organization for Cooperation and Security in Europe has attacked another and killed thousands of civilians? These organizations have failed.

Like the League of Nations before them, they must be replaced by a new and more effective set of international institutions capable of serving the interests of all countries, not only those of the great powers.

The architecture of this new system should be based on Ukraine’s experience. In 1994 we gave up the world’s third-largest nuclear arsenal, hoping that the signatures of world leaders on a document meant something. But in April 2008, Germany and France blocked Ukraine’s accession to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. The Kremlin got the message. In August 2008 Russia invaded Georgia and the world turned a blind eye.

In 2014 Russia attacked Ukraine and the world decided not to intervene.  Now Russian bombs are erasing our cities from the earth and the world has been unable to stop it.

All this could have been prevented.  Had the West imposed preventive sanctions on Russia and provided Kyiv with a sufficient number of defensive weapons—primarily air and missile defense systems—tens of thousands of Ukrainians would still be alive today.

The Western response to the invasion has been too slow.

As President Volodymyr Zelensky has said, the global response to a crisis of this sort should be immediate, within 24 hours, not after weeks or months. Any aggressor must face irreversible punishment through a mechanism of preventive measures—so called deferred sanctions that can be approved in peacetime and take effect automatically.

Russia’s aggression against Ukraine has created almost four million refugees. We are on the brink of a global food crisis that could destabilize Africa and the Middle East. Until Russia is stopped, the crisis will only grow, pulling in neighbors and contributing to the collapse of economies.

We always hear the echoes of the past in the present.  I’ve never liked traitors or cockroaches. Even when I was a child, both filled me with disgust.  Eventually I came to terms with cockroaches and no longer take offense at their existence, but my feelings for traitors haven’t changed.  This is the core of who I am, and of many people around me these days. You can’t go back on your word. You can’t run when your country needs you. You can’t betray your friends.

I make dozens of calls every day, communicating with friends and colleagues from different countries. I really want to believe that everyone I speak with has values that they won’t betray under any circumstances.  If you consider friendship one of those values, and you consider yourself a friend of Ukraine, please realize that time is running out. We need your help, and we need it now.

Primarily we need heavy weapons to defend and liberate Russian-occupied territories.  I know that these weapons can be sourced quickly from different countries.  All that’s needed is the will to do so.  If you give us these weapons, you will show the world that you are not afraid to confront evil.  We also need a total global embargo on Russian oil and gas.  We need real sanctions against Russia’s banking system and trade.

If you give us all this, Russian invaders will be gone from Ukraine in a few months. If you don’t, the war will drag on, and the terrorist state of the Russian Federation will destroy the reputations of global leaders and encourage other rogues to test their strength. 

The flames of the war can spread to other countries at any moment because Vladimir Putin won’t stop in Ukraine.

A Ukrainian victory is the only outcome that will force Russia to rethink its strategy of aggression. We can do it.  We have already proved our bravery.  We just need the tools.  Once the job is done we can get down to the important business of building a new world security architecture free from the structural defects of the past.

Mr. Reznikov is Ukraine’s defense minister.

-------------------

We here at GEMESYS Ltd. are in complete agreement with Mr. Reznikov.

We urge our Leaders and the other Leaders, Governments and Civilian+Military entities around the world the HEED THIS CRITICAL MESSAGE.  Our careful study and analysis of historical events suggests that Mr. Reznikov's message is of maximum importance, is accurate, and must be acted upon.

Ukraine needs explicit military help - and it needs LARGE, POWERFUL, GAME-CHANGING WEAPONS. 

The current economic sanctions against Russia are a joke.   Western governments are going after rich Russian businessmen - stealing their property - as if this can or will have any impact at all on the Russian Terror War Putin is waging in Ukraine.  

Lets be clear:   Russia is acting ILLEGALLY.   They are doing mass-murder and terrorism.

The United Nations is BROKEN.

It has completely and amazingly failed here - and it should be ended and rebuilt.

We can fix these problems now, without having World War Three. We do this by arming Ukraine in a very big way, and by offering them UN-sanctioned military assistance now, to remove the Russian invading forces.

Or, we can dither and talk and play politics and mumble-and-bumble about and make half-hearted gestures that play to home audiences, and then have World War Three, when Russia attacks a NATO country - and watch as Russia and part of our world is destroyed.

Either way, Russian aggression will be addressed, and the UN will be dismantled and then repaired, with a nuclear-armed standing army at it's disposal, and a working democratic structure that will ensure the territorial integrity of nation-state borders. 

Arming - and actively assisting - Ukraine NOW, is a vastly better choice here.

This illegal Russian exercise in mass-murder, and mass-theft will be addressed and Russia's ability to act in this manner will be ended - one way or another.   And the UN will be repaired - one way, or a another.   We are certain these two outcomes will take place in the future.

We simply have a choice now - which outcome we will select:  Option 1 - help Ukraine defeat the Russian invasion, and begin the process of fixing the broken, failed UN, or,

Option 2 - where we let things slide along, until full-on war with Russia becomes a certainty, and we (NATO) have to gear up to fight a very big and world-wrecking war with the Russian forces of extreme evil.  (We know how they act, and what sort of things they do.  Extreme evil, really.) 

Option 2 includes massive, all-out war with Russia.  It may or may not involve nuclear weapons.  But it matters not, if your city is destroyed by a nuclear blast or a mass firebombing campaign, like was done to Tokyo.  Or the saturation-bombing that Berlin endured.  Or the carpet-bombing that has destroyed Mariupol, Ukraine's formerly beautiful coastal city.   Once the bombing was over, Hiroshima and Tokyo did not look much different.  Both were fully destroyed.  And Mariupol today, looks much like Berlin in 1945.   Nuclear weapon use is actually a non-issue.  If your city is destroyed and *everything* is burnt to the ground, and all the people are killed - does it really make any difference what kind of weapons were used to accomplish this horror?

We should give Ukraine ANY KIND OF ARMS AND WEAPONS THEY REQUEST and HELP THEM FIX THIS UGLY PROBLEM NOW, WHEN IT CAN BE FIXED AT THIS EARLY STAGE, before it becomes a full World War. 

We really are certain of the wisdom and necessity of this course of action.

Mr. Reznikov is most correct.

The Putin Terror War in Ukraine is the Blackest of all the "Black Swans" we have ever seen. It is insane, cruel and will damage everyone, everywhere, for no gain to anyone.

It shows the great wisdom of having term limits on all political leaders. Vladimir Putin provides a textbook example of an insane megalomaniac. And his actions show what happens when cruelty and madness infect the people at the top. We must correct this.

A Box of Stuff for the Good Guys. This is part of donations from the "Come Back Alive" Foundation, which donates supplies and materiel for Ukrainian soldiers fighting the Russian invaders of their homeland.

And a good homeland - like a good home - often has cat. Here we see Captain Malenkiy performing an inspection.

Please: Weapons - big guns, tanks and aircraft - for Ukraine NOW.

ARM UKRAINE NOW! To defend Freedom.

We sent them some ammunition and small arms. Now, they need the big stuff. Let's get it done!

English Language Message Direct from President Zelenskiy of Ukraine

This was released on Twitter this AM.  Please share, contact your member of Parliament or Congress.  We MUST do this.

https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1514244427476344838

On Youtube...

https://youtu.be/bIwLz-CNVuI

 

It is very important that we get this done.  Germany has a bunch of tanks, and Canada has some aircraft (we bought those used Australian F-18's, right?), and USA has every damn weapon system there is.   We need to get this heavy hardware into Ukraine - NOW.

Nothing else matters.

To understand the technical nature of Putin's Terrorist strategy, read this detailed BBC report:

(It is carefully researched, well documented, and difficult to read.  It's called "Collecting the Dead in Bucha".)

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61085810

The Putin Terror War against Ukraine is designed to inflict maximum pain and psychological harm on the Ukrainian people, as a Nation.   This is Terrorism as an advanced science.   It is designed - using carefully crafted methodology of horror - to destroy human feeling.

Putin's Regime in Moscow must be destroyed, at any cost.  

You have to go back into ancient history, to find evil like this.  Honestly - the European Nazi's of the mid-20th century were very bad - but they were not this kind of focused-evil bad.  They wanted to consolidate and control - not just degrade, hurt and destroy national identity.

It is important that the Forces of Freedom - really all of global humanity - join together to destroy - to absolutely and completely erase - Vladimir Putin and his sadistic, evil henchmen.

This requirement transcends all politics and nationality.

The Russian Terror War in Ukraine Changes Everything

The Russian State Lie Squads, and Putin himself claim the Bucha Atrocities are fake, or were done after Ukraine recaptured Bucha. This is a proven lie - the British Defense Intelligence Satellite photos - from March 21st - prove the Russians did the killing - just as hundreds of eye-witness accounts from Bucha indicate.

The key takeaway here, is that nothing Russian State operatives say now, can be trusted to be truthful. This makes a sinister scenario.

Zelenskiy, the Ukraine president, is correct. The United Nations is a failed institution, as it now is being used to protect the interests of a rogue Nation-State of sadistic killers.

The Terror War that Vladimir Putin's fascist military killers of Russia have unleashed on Ukraine changes everything.   The atrocities being carried out in Ukraine by Russian invaders is a terrorist exercise similar to what ISIS did in Syria.  The World military forces must assist the Ukraine military.

We have no choice, but to be at War with Russia.  Putin must be arrested, and put on trial for mass murder.  He is evil - a liar and a sociopath operating at the highest level of crafted deception. 

Youtube and most other social-media, and all independent news services are now banned in Russia, as of April 5th, 2022.   Our little website might not be blocked.   So, we post truth of what is happening in Ukraine here, so maybe we can be a tiny agent of corrective change.

The Western World - Europe especially - must assist Ukraine, and help them repel this astonishing evil invasion that Russia is doing.   Most Russians have been electronically blinded, and are not even aware what is taking place in areas in the north, around Kyiv and in the south, where Mariupol is being systematically destroyed by constant bombing.  

This horror and madness that Russia is doing, will echo forward now, for the next 100 years, and will poison our World, unless we all act to stop it now.

World Gone Mad - A Military Strategy

What is going on in Mariupol is an organized crime by Russian military, on the scale of what Adolf Hitler's military did to the Jews of Europe.

The dead civilians who have been murdered by Russian bombing, number now over 5,000, instead of 5 million. The tally of innocent people murdered by Putin is still less than Hitler's score - but we are only at the beginning. Once the nuclear bombs are used - probably against Russia - then we expect the Putin score to exceed Hitler's.

The World cannot ignore this insane nightmare. Most of beautiful Mariupol is in ruins. This atrocity did not need to happen. It has happened because we have weak, ineffective leaders, and a broken and worthless United Nations.

The current Putin Gangster Group controlling Russia, must be removed and ended by any means possible.

To delay further, will only cost more lives later. This exercise in mass-murder cannot be allowed to stand. It is not warfare, it is just terrorism and mass-murder by forces of pure, extreme evil.

None of this sadistic, murderous idiocy needed to happen. Full on war with Russia is now something that cannot be avoided, no matter what Western leaders say. We should strike them now, and strike them hard, and plan to buy some warm overcoats and iodine pills.

[ May 3, 2022 ] - America & the Western World Need to Focus Better - The Democrats are trying to do the right thing, with arms shipments to Ukraine for it's self-defense against insane Russian murder-squadrons of "Zombies" out to kill "Nazis".   Good for Ukraine.  They need to win, and win big.  Russian forces are delusional, and Putin is an old fashioned evil tyrant who needs to be dealt with.

But the Democrats of USA need to get their act together, and stop acting like they are also insane.  Old nutjobs like Bernie Sanders should be sent off to Florida Nursing Homes or somewhere safe, where he cannot make the Democratic platform look like a ragbag of insane, mouth-drooling retarded idiocy.   Bernie is *demanding* that the Democrats in Washington pass legislation making it a legal-right for women to kill their babies.

Bernie - it's a shame that your own mother did not scrape you out of her inner place.   JHC, what a nutbar crazy world!

What kind of sick-crazy madness is driving the Democrats in USA?   I seriously think that much of the Democrats policy platform in USA-land, might be the result of a carefully-crafted exercise in mass political destabilization.    I honestly do not know who or what is behind this madness - but to have some gray-haired goofball who gets big airplay, and is a sure to be put into the news (like a Senator Bernie Sanders, for example) **demand** that USA Democats pass legislation allowing women the legal right to murder the children they are carrying inside themselves, is complete madness.

What sort of sane person, would want to vote for a political party that essentially encourages women to kill their own children?

The nonsense & foolish talk by unwise, badly educated "Democrat" law-makers in the USA is deeply disturbing and dangerous.  Most of the "Squad" do not even understand how their own government and legal systems are designed to operate.  If you want to learn and be enlightened, read this most excellent article - which does not even offer an opinion on 'Roe vs. Wade" - but it is the key to what the Supreme Court of the USA is doing:

https://greenwald.substack.com/p/the-irrational-misguided-discourse?s=r

We are not Catholics, and are not driven by any superstitious or religious impulses.  But all creatures - even lesser mammals, fish, birds and even some insects - typically ensure that their offspring get born, and obtain quality care.  This is just basic, rational biological necessity.

What the USA Democrat Party is doing - having these strident geriatric loons and arse-poking gayboys driving their "weird-sex and kill-the-unborn-children" political agenda, is just way, way beyond silly and bad.   "Where is this madness coming from?", we wonder.

The Republicans will be able to run *anyone* who is sane, basically *anywhere*, and just look semi-rational, and they will eventually be able to takeover the entire political process.  But this requires them to also be rational and sane, and ... this might not actually be possible.

It really looks as if some background dark-force or group of clever/evil social-programmers, are trying to destroy USA.   Seriously, I am not making a silly "birds are not real" conspiracy-theory argument here.  There is just too much insane, way-over-the-top idiotic madness driving politics in USA now.    All this woke-faggot weird shit is like nasty political porn.  Just  google or duckduckgo the "state of the art" of modern porn, and it is not at all about good old plain fun-fucking anymore - it is a horrorshow of crazy weirdness, like a madhouse of some German nightmare, or a Bosch painting of Hell.   (Seriously, go look.  Modern internet porn is not even erotic. But it mirrors the world-of-politics pretty closely, which is curious and disturbing...)

The world has always had extreme crazy-shit, just below the surface. 

But in USA-land, this pure crazy shit is actually *driving* the Democrat Party now, and setting their political platform.  Really, it honestly is.

Regardless of your political or religious beliefs, it probably should be illegal for a pregnant female to kill her unborn child, just because she wants to.

There should probably not be any ***legal right*** to getting an abortion.

Why not make **suicide** a legal right?  That at least makes sense.  But as for killing your unborn child, that is clearly not a decision that a pregnant female should have on her own.  At least let the pregnant woman, the doctor, the father, and anyone else who is a family-member, at least have input into the decision to abort a living foetus. 

The USA Supreme Court is probably right to strike down the "Roe vs. Wade" idea, that women can have sole authority over the decision to kill their own children.  

Bernie Sanders should retire, and go golfing with Donald Trump down in Florida.   He should be pushed off the political stage.   His time is over, as he sounds clearly insane, and is doing terrible damage to both the Democratic Party, and the USA as a nation.

Bloody hell, an analyst has to go back to 6th-century Justinian and Theodora  (a tyrant-boss and a whore-dancer-showgirl who became a princess-queen by marrying the boss) who together ruled Byzantium (year 521 to 548) - the weird (Eastern) side of the collapsing Roman Empire - to find this sort of foolish-awful political hellhole of internal mud-fighting, failed warfare efforts, sex-scandals and stupid, bad, self-destructive action.   (Hint:  Read Procopius and his "Secret History.")

It is now time for some sanity to come back into the modern political view-frame. 

We need to wise up, and get ready to fight the Third World War.   (Which we hope can be avoided - but given the pure-evil of the Russian actions, we suspect it has already begun.  Really and honestly.  We will have to fight, defeat, and repair the Russian Federation.  This will have to take place, even if it means we have to risk full nuclear war.    The silly squabbles of the Western World must end now, and we all must focus our efforts much, much more better.  )

[ May 1st, 2022 ] - Olga of Kyiv & No Future for Kids of Russia- Olga - Ruled in Kyiv, around, 900 AD.  We are deep in an analytic-historical study.  It began with Hannibal Barca of Carthage (considered by many researchers to the be greatest military strategist and General of all time), and we detoured to a history of Babylonian military history, and have come thru a horror-show of weaponry and tactics, up to Soviet weapons technology of the late 1980's.  It is a long strange trip, to say the least.   We found Olga of Kyiv, and her defeat of invading Russian barbarians from the "North" particularly interesting.   Nothing in history really changes - except the technology, which gets more nasty as the epoch's flow.

We now also understand why Xi of China is being so insane about the national demands for "Covid Zero" style lockdowns.  We suspect that street-wise fellow has direct knowledge of *exactly* what Covid-19 virus is, how it was designed, how it was manufactured, and how is explicitly programmed to evolve.  (We have observed detailed research on how the Omicron variants are morphing at a curiously rapid evolutionary pace.  More on this later..)

In Ukraine, Putin is going "full Hitler", and a newspaper that was formatted and sent for printing on April 30th, and is dated May 2nd (tomorrow!), has all this "news" in it, detailing fake terrorist attacks, which require poor little Moldova to "mobilize".  It is complete, textbook example of shit-fake "false-flag" pretexting nonsense, but it is what we can now expect from the low-wattage bulbs at the FSB.  (the successor org. to the KGB - these are the boys that put Novochok neural-poison into Navalny's undershorts.   FFS, what a world...)

This site is in cyrillic Ukrainian, but you can highlight text, and run it thru Google translate, and get good English out.  It is fascinating.  Putin's goons are printing two-day forward newspapers, with pure absolutely fake news and the Ukraine Intelligence folks monitor this garbage, which will be used as pretext for more Russian military-gangster activity.

https://mil.in.ua/uk/news/rosiyany-gotuyut-nevyznane-prydnistrov-ya-do-vijny-gur-mo/

This nonsense is beyond-the-pale awful and tragic-comically stupid.  But what is so interesting, is that it is good-enough for Russian people.   It is not that Russians are stupid - it is that they are mostly all seething with anger, and are happy to do *anything* to focus that anger.

It makes us think that perhaps the entire Ukrainian murder-madness, is a cynical, awful project to remove an entire demographic cohort of Russian youth.  "Feed them to the cannons", (as the Brits used to say...)  and so reduce to zero any chance of them taking to the streets of Moscow to demand Putin's head.   Putin is preventing a violent overthrow of his regime by the angry, violent kids, who know they have no future at all, in Putin's Russia.  

So, Putin arranges for them all to be killed.

[ Apr. 29, 2022 ] - Panzers for Ukraine!  - The Germans have modern Panzers.  And Ukraine needs *many*.  So the Germans are discussing lend-leasing a bunch of "Panzer-Howitzers" to Ukraine, to help the Ukrainians in their desperate hour.  We think this is a *very good idea*.  Congratuations to German leader, Herr Scholz.  We hope this good plan can be carried out quickly.  Russian military forces need to be removed from Ukraine.   No other outcome is acceptable or in any way correct. 

The translation of the text on the photo (which is in the Ukrainian language), is as follows:

--- (translation of Ukrainian text, on photo of PZN 2000)

  "We are negotiating with various partners to provide effective support to Ukraine - also in the field of artillery. There are various options that are currently being considered, "  said a spokeswoman for the German Defense Ministry.

--- (end translated text)

Germany once used its military to do bad things.  Now, it can use it's military to do very good things - like defend democracy and human freedom.   The world changes.  This is good.

It's time for Russia to change.  Nothing like a big military defeat to make a country re-think exactly what it's place in the world should be.   We should all help Russians gain this necessary educational benefit.  They need to remove Putin, restore sanity and free-speech to their nation, and become wise and honest people again.  This current insane murder-madness must stop.

Here is another BBC story, about a murdered female journalist - killed in her Kyiv home:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61274997

Putin is killing our women.  This is very human-basic.  We must end this murderer now.

[ Apr. 25, 2022 ] - King Arthur's Tools - Part Le Deux... - I had not realized how much of this is public.   This little marketing clip, is from back in 2016.  It shows how the existing ship-board Navy guns can (and have been) upgraded with extreme precision, very long range, dynamic vectoring "rounds".   This tech is *very* cool - at distances around 40 to 50 klicks away, you can eliminate a murder-squadron of killers in rapidly-moving kill-vehicles - tanks, BMRs, trucks, or even stolen cars (a typical Russian vehicle of choice.)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TY6g-SfbMVM

(Don't ya just love the imaged video clip?  Destroying a *boat* in a desert? )   Key point here, is that the programmed "air-burst" technology, is even more effective against a truck-load of goons.

The Amazing Stupidity of Switzerland

We read that the Swiss are unwilling to supply RheinMetall (the suppliers of Marder tanks), with the needed artillery rounds - because fucking Switzerland has a *law* that prevents them from transferring military technology to any country involved in combat.  

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/swiss-veto-german-request-re-export-ammunition-ukraine-paper-2022-04-24/

Is it possible to fukcing imagine anything more fucking stupid?

This is exactly the same as a pharmaceutical company being unwilling to provide medicine to sick people, or a nation-state government making it illegal for Doctors to help soldiers who are wounded in battle.    It is perfect, insane madness.

Simple Solution to Swiss Stupidity:

This fuck-stupid situation has a real simple solution:  1): Germany immediately passes a law, indicating that export-permits from other States are not required, in emergency situations, and declares the Ukraine invasion by Russia as an "emergency situation".   (In Canada or England, we would use an "Order In Council", so you don't have to waste time chit-chatting in the legislature.)  Problem solved.  Rheinmetall already has the projectile rounds - they can then just ship once German law allows this, and the Swiss can go fuck themselves.  And the desperate Ukrainians can have a better chance at defending themselves from the advancing forces of pure evil.

And thus 2):  Dump the shit-for-brains Swiss as suppliers if anything military at all.  Or at least in future have each contract designate: "We have FULL AUTHORTY - as Buyers - to do ANYTHING WE WISH with your product once we own it."  If the Swiss disagree, tell them to fuck off.    Ideally, Swiss product should not be used, if there are any product restrictions.    Consider using suppliers in Poland to make the needed ammunition, or fabricate it within Germany.    The Polish firm FB Radom might be a choice, which could consider tooling up for this project.   Polish weaponry is as good as Swiss, and the Polish are not as stupid as the Swiss are being.

But the idiocy of Swiss law, that prevents shipment of military equipment and supplies and materiel to places where a military emergency exists, and it is desperately needed right now is absolutely beyond the pale stupid.   

It is curious how this kind of insane, stupid *sh/t* actually gets into the world.   One would expect this kind of law to be laughed at, and hooted off the public stage, when some fuckwit suggests it.   Strange and so very curious that it was not...

[ Apr. 24, 2022 ] - King Arthur's Tools - Canada is providing Ukraine with some 155 mm vectoring artillery.   Very cool stuff, and we can talk about, because it's public.  Raytheon is a very cool company.

https://youtu.be/E6ukz5jhXdY

Accurate.  As my public school teachers used to say:  "Neatness counts."  ( I'm a messy writer.)

[ Apr. 23, 2022 ] - Arriving in Las Vegas - Spoke at length with an old friend in USA, who moved to Nevada.   Californistan got too crazy for him, and he and is wife built a house in Vegas.   It is nice, warm in the winter, and hot in the summer.   They come North, in the summer.   Nevada is an interesting State.  You can go to the range, and play with an AK-47, an run it on full-auto (which gets expensive, as anyone with a self-funded full-auto metal-thrower knows...).   Another friend, had a chat with him, he just returned from somewhere east of Eastern Europe.   They rescued a friend, who needed medical treatment.   Tough times for good people.  Certainly proves we are on our own now.

Evil prospers and does well, and good people fail, suffer and die.   Truly, I belive there is nothing more insane than religion.   But little can be done about this kind of madness.  People seem to need to believe weird shit that is provably wrong.  Perhaps the pain is too great.

Hard to grasp why this needs to be the case, isn't it. 

[ Apr. 22, 2022 ] - Mrs. Rotter's Lullabye - "I gave up my seat at the bar, and I headed for the door..."   Clang. "We shout out these songs, to the clang of electric guitars...."    ( I liked "Counting Crows" a lot.  But modern economics and warfare are making me crazy, I fear...)

Fack... I am reading about "Modern Monetary Theory", some of the most bone-stupid nonsense since Marxism.  MMT says that government fiscal deficits don't matter, and that you can pump up the money supply, no problem, without getting inflation.  Ok, sure.  Listen - MMT is like... (how to describe it?)  Try this:  It falls into the class of algorithms that work really great, until, suddenly, they do not work at all.

Like this: You find a bunch of dynamite, and nice long fuses.  Assume everyone knows what this stuff is.  You stick a blasting cap, and a nice long fuse, into your stick of dynamite, and you drive down the road, waving it around.  Everyone who sees you, gets out of the way, and moves in the opposite direction.  You think:  "Fuck! This is great!  I have discovered the secret to traffic problems.  I can drive around, no traffic!  It's great! "   And for a while it works really good.  You wave your lit stick of burning-fuse dynamite at everyone, and they see it, and move away from you so very fast. You are wildly successful, driving around, getting quick service at the store, going into the bank, where they give you money to leave right away, and so on.   Wow, what a great algorithm!  You think you are a genius.   (Do you recognize this phenomenon???)

But eventually, your fuse is burning down, and you pay it no mind. 

In this algorithmic process, everything works really, really good for you, until the very moment when it does not work well at all.

This is the very ESSENCE of MMT.   Fuck, you stupid government & central-bank clowns, try to understand this.  The process you are playing with is VERY NON-LINEAR.   Ka-Booom.

Just like this fucknig goon-psycho Putin, who is determined to destroy the world, to lengthen the view of his soft penis and sagging chest.   It is a time of madness, magnified to absurd extremes, like they talked about in the other times of great, extreme transitions.   Freud told us, and so did Jung.  So did Procopius.  We are screwed, I fear.   If we use the really modern high-tech stuff, then the genie will be out of the bottle, and everyone will know what is possible.  So we have to let bad things go...  This feels so wrong.

I once went to Colorado.  Colorado Springs, actually.  Met a girl there, and we rented a car, and drove away and had an adventure.  Airstream trailers, in the southern desert...  She was a very fine girl.  I really like fine girls.   It was maybe the best time I had in my whole life.  Funny, how we remember these curious things, when deep in a pile of work, and it all looks terminal...    "The days grow short, when you reach September..."   --- "To live's to fly - all low and high."  Thanx, TVZ.  (Like Lucky's speech in "Waiting for Godot"...).   Never forgotten you, Theresa.  You were pure magic joy.  A thousand years from now, someone finds this archive:  "Listen!  We lived!  And it was good!"

A Really Beautiful Kill:

This is a really fucking sweet kill - just a perfect thing of beauty.  Here is a Russian murder tank, being taken out at over FOUR klicks away - just a lovely kill, at a distance that almost exceeds what is possible - except it was possible, because it got done.  Details are not provided, to protect the defenders of Ukraine:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hEVUqglE9r8

This was over 4 km away from launch, so it shows that Russian murder-monkeys and their murder-wagons, are not safe anywhere in Ukraine.  You drive into Ukraine with a kill-vehicle, you *will* die, eventually.  It might not happen right away, but many, many good people, all around the world, are working hard to make sure it *will* happen at some point.

[ Apr. 21, 2022 ] - Madness Takes Control - Yes, everything really is broken.  People are acting crazy.    It is very, very strange.   What ever has happened to our collective ability in the Western World, to get stuff done? 

It seems to have been wrecked by the Left.   We maybe need to do something about this. 

We have Trudeau in Canada, and Biden in the USA, and between the two of them, they seem to want to destroy all this sensible stuff that we had, that actually worked pretty good.  Biden cancelled critical pipeline projects, Trudeau and the B.C. Lefties have made it impossible to build pipelines and terminals to export liquified natural gas, which for our economy and resources, and the demand in Asia (and now Europe), is something we *really* should be doing, and doing at scale.   But we just cannot seem to get anything done, anymore.

It is silly here, and it is worse in the USA.  In the USA, it is becoming insane - literally *millions* of Covid-infected, poor-people & criminals are flooding across the southern US "sort-of-border", and they go to San Francisco and other big cities, where they occupy (with AK-47's) the city.  This happens while "woke" Leftists want to "defund the Police" and claim that the honest, property-owning gun-owners are "white racists" and are really the big problem.  The Democrats in the USA are buying into this stupid "woke" bullshit, teaching gay-life in public schools, and then act surprised when they discover this crazy nonsense is destroying their thinking and their party.  The Hard-Left in the USA is truly insane.

Biden cancels a critical pipeline project that would have helped USA and Canada work together to have energy self-sufficiency, and shuts down leases on Federal land, that could be used to find and harvest the oil that is there.   The whole "Green-Nazi" climate-change fake crisis is used to justify stupid-silly and self-destructive economics which supports and emboldens Russian aggression and Green-Nazi economic de-stabilization.   The fucking gasoline price in Canada is almost two dollars a litre!  And diesel fuel is even more.  This is just silly.  This is a basic input, and will explode our production costs everywhere.   We are fucking-up our own economics, raising taxes on fuel and taking extreme economic action, for fake "climate-change" global-warming bullshit that is nothing compared to the true risk that Putin's Russia represents.

We just had a very standard-average very cold winter, and Spring is STILL coming the same way and at the same time it always has.  Except now, the petrol is twice the fucking price it needs to be, because of bogus "Climate Change" taxes and bad government policy choices.   This is fucking bullshit.   And it is bad economics.

This guy in this note says it clearly:  America is becoming a distopian "La-La Land", and the evidence seems to support him:

https://amgreatness.com/2022/04/20/how-america-became-la-la-land/

There is no reason we - the entire Western World - could not oppose Putin's military horrorshow with a firm hand - and some big warships and big action using high-tech weapons.   We just say: "Guy, your actions are illegal.  Have your army exit Ukraine, or we will offer direct assistance to the Ukraine Government, to destroy your invading army.  Ok?  Clear?  And if you launch or use any nuclear weapons, we will also.  Do not do it."

And then, we just create a standard "Highway of Death" for Russian murder forces inside Ukraine.  The Russian invaders are in Ukraine illegally.  Our actions would not be a war, just a basic "UN-Authorized Police Force" effort, doing a necessary job.   No reason why we could not do this.

But we strangely cannot.  The fuck-stupid Lefty children have created this fake-shit-idea that we cannot take action, for various fake-shit reasons that are made up to allow murder-monkey horror-shit to happen to the Ukrainians.  And this is just so fucking wrong, it is insane. 

The world seems now to be divided between the stupid and the cruel.  

We must correct this.  This governance model is just NFG (No Fucking Good).

[ Apr. 20, 2022 ] - Horror Fiction - We are living in a "Black Swan" - the very blackest we have seen.   We are offside, but are electing to hold our positons, due to the inflation scenario.  Stocks are not a great inflation hedge, but they are not bad, and our dividend streams and other revenue is holding up well.  And our real-estate holdings are going vertical-ballistic.  It is a very, very strange time.  We were well tee-ed up for this sort of madness, because I have studied history.   This insane war shit, seems to be a built-in characteristic of human society.  Not sure why.  Maybe it is the "reptile brain" taking charge, in guys like Putin.  Had a long discussion yesterday with a medical guy, about the nature of "Long Covid" and how it can do neural damage.  We believe that Putin has suffered neural degradation or damage - but not enough that it is always obvious.  

In my mind's eye, I see Putin as "Captain Queeg" -  doing that scene from the "Caine Mutiny", where Bogart goes on about disloyal officers, the stolen strawberries and the key to the food locker.   Watch this scene - it is Putin, seriously:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KekChFdIe00

[ Apr. 18, 2022 ] - Putin Kills Cities, Kills Russians, and Kills His Navy / Путін вбиває міста, вбиває росіян і вбиває свій флот! -

Знищення «Москви» є прямим результатом Володимира Путіна та його божевільної війни.

Образи «Москви» перед її затопленням трагічні. Але вона була розміщена в центрі, щоб запропонувати радіолокаційне покриття південного прибережного регіону України, і вона допомагала вбивати українські міста та мирних жителів. Вона здійснила перехід від військового корабля до знаряддя терору та масового вбивства невинних, і тому вона заслужила свою долю.

Ми щиро сподіваємося, що росіяни незабаром зможуть усунути Володимира Путіна. Корабель під назвою «Москва» знищено. Ми щиро сподіваємося, що Путіна вдасться усунути, а його терористична війна закінчиться до того, як сама Москва спіткає подібну долю. Чесно кажучи, ця путінська людина не має уявлення про страшні, руйнівні сили, які він вивільняє. Він думає, що він сильний, а західні нації слабкі та дурні. Це просто неправда. Це більше брехня Путіна.

Путін знову робить Росію синонімом ЗЛА в нашому світі.

Це просто нерозумно, неправильно і сумно. Путін стоїть на купі черепів.

Але історія показує, що це на диво поширений результат. Тому ми всі повинні вжити заходів і підготуватися до боротьби з цим жахливим злом.

----

The destruction of the "Moskva" is directly the result of Valdimir Putin and his insane war. 

The images of the "Moskva" before she sunk, are tragic.  But she was positioned in a central location, to offer radar-coverage of the southern littoral region of Ukraine, and she was helping to kill Ukrainian cities and civilians.  She made the transition from warship, to an instrument of terror and mass-murder of innocents, and so she deserved her fate.

We truly hope the Russians can remove Vladimir Putin soon.  The ship named "Moskva" has been destroyed.  We truly hope that Putin can be removed, and his Terror War ended, before the city of Moskva itself meets a similar fate.  Honestly, this Putin person has no idea of the terrible, destructive forces that he is unleashing.  He thinks he is strong, and that Western Nations are weak and foolish.  This is simply not true.   It is more Putin Lies.   

He will destroy Russia, if he is not removed.  His war against Ukraine is idiotic madness - like a man attacking his own left hand.  NATO was becoming a bureaucratic non-entity, and there were plans in North America to make Europe pay for it's own defense needs.  NATO was dying.

But now, Putin has made NATO into a new force, and the horrors that we are all seeing in Ukraine, means that POWERFUL political forces have been mobilized, to ensure that defense spending increases and military preparedness will be massively enhanced.  NATO is needed and will get all the money it wants, now.

War is now upon us. 

We see what it looks like.

And we see what happens if we do not oppose EVIL.

Putin is making Russia the synonym for EVIL again, in our world.

This is simply foolish, wrong, and sad.   Putin stands on a pile of skulls.  

But history shows it to be a curiously common outcome.   So we all must take action, and get ready to deal with this terrible evil.

[ Apr. 15, 2022 ] - Once Upon a Time, The Good Guys Knew How to End War Tyrants - Here is a link to an Archived Documentary Film - but made like an action movie - by both the British Government Ministry of Information and the Hollywood Film industry - in 1944, while the Second World War was still raging.   When the fascist shit really hit the fan, and it looked like half the world could fall into an ugly pit of tyrannical hell, the FREE DEMOCRATIC NATIONS of the planet, got their shit together, and began the work together to SOLVE THE PROBLEM.   It's a really well done film.  Below is a direct link.  Look...

https://ia600607.us.archive.org/22/items/TunisianVictoryRestoted/TunisianVictoryRestoted.mp4

Apparently, some re-enactment scenes were filmed by a young director named John Huston.  But the film is all historical fact.  We just discovered this gem, while doing some research.  Why was North Africa so important?  Because of the oil.   Once Hitler's gang lost the oil fields of Libya, they were done.  No "blitz" in their "krieg" without their petrol-burning war machines.  The tank drivers during the "Battle of the Bulge" carried hoses to siphon fuel from any vehicles they could find.

Details re. this Pubic Domain documentary:

https://archive.org/details/TunisianVictoryRestoted

(the typo for "Restored", as the word "Restoted" is part of the correct URL Also, the streaming from the archive.org site does not work well, so it is often better to download the film as an .mp4, and watch it using "mplayer" or whatever media=player your machine uses.  It is a good film, despite it being shameless propaganda - since the war was still on in 1944, and it was necessary to show that a co-ordinated, and difficult-won victory had been achieved.)

We all did this once. 

For many of us, it was our fathers and our grand-fathers who actually were in this fight.  My father was a very young lad, in the RCAF.   He was a bomber pilot.  In a real bomber aircraft - not a car-driver like some "bombers."   And my mother was part German.  Her father was German, and he signed up to fight FOR the Canadian military, and AGAINST Hitler's facist murder-gang.  I have a picture of him in his uniform.  He has a serious face in that image.  In my father's pictures in his Air Force uniform, he is almost always smiling.  He was very young.

War is really not about your race, or religion or nationality.   It is about what is right and true and honest - and what must be done to maintain human freedom in the World.  

My partner is Japanese, and her father fought for Japan in Manchuria, China.   He knew and said to others that the war was stupid and wrong, but he went and did what he was told, because that was what a young man did then, when he was conscripted by his nation-state.

What Putin has done in Ukraine is evil and stupid and wrong - regardless of how well his lies play among misguided and dis-informed Russians. 

This war is moving close to home for many of us now.  I spoke with a friend yesterday, who is travelling with others today, first to somewhere in Eastern Europe, and then to somewhere that must not be disclosed, to try to bring out an injured friend.    We often disagree on politics when we chat - but in this shitstorm of Putin's madness, every fucking one of us, are on the same side.  

I told my friend how goddamn proud I was of him, for doing what he and his guys are going to try to do.   We talked of politics, and I said we all have to choose sides now.  He disagreed, and said he is not choosing sides.  But I said he was - he is on the side of his friends and buddies, and has decided to try and help one of his buddies who is in trouble.  

That is a good side to be on.   It seems like the right side.

This is why we have to help Ukraine, and the people who are fighting a perfect-storm of evil.

Everyone will be in this fight, eventually.  Every. Single. Person. On. This. Planet.

[ Apr. 12, 2022 ] - The Emerging Details From Bucha Prove Putin Is a Terrorist Killer- What is interesting, is that Vladimir Putin really, honestly, is a dangerous, world-threatening terrorist.   The Ukraine Terror War is a planned, designed, explicitly-crafted exercise in pure civilian-killing terrorism.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61071243

This was not "bad soldiers running out of control".   This was a planned exercise in brutal terrorism, designed to crush Ukranian national identity, and inflict mass pain and horror on a significant group of non-combatants, so as to obtain a political objective. 

Putin is using *exactly* the same tactics that ISIS used in Syria.   Many of the Russian "soldiers" (a term we use lightly), are "veterans" of the "Syrian exercise", in which similar horrific action took place. 

It is the weirdly awful human weakness that old Joe Biden showed to the world, when American forces "cut and ran" from Afghanistan, that seems to have been the trigger that has allowed Putin to engage this astonishingly awful exercise in human horror.  We truly feared the results of the Afghan withdrawal.  America never looked so poor & weak as it did then.  The Americans ran away in the night - and abandoned a fine nation-building project that was actually working pretty well.  The results have been tragic.

Putin is doing this insane exercise - because he can.     Something has *toggled* inside that man's head, and he has successfully projected an unwell-person's false world-view, blocked all open communication with Russian people by using KGB-style "information confrontation" on his nation's media, and created this bizarre climate of mass-hatred that has allowed this idiotically awful war to proceed.  He is now a lonely, angry old man, full of his own truly twisted hate. 

This is one of the very worst human nightmares that can occur.  We have a truth-blinded and degraded nation, dominated by a hate-filled angry old man, embarked on a mission of mass-murder, driven by his own madness, and determined to crush anyone who stands in his way.   The whole thing is like a bad historical drama, by a cold, hungry writer.

Except it is really happening.   In Mariupol, little remains on the honest, elected government - amid the rubble and the ruins.  But the Mayor is still there.  He indicates that over 20,000 civilians have been killed in the bombing of his city.   Think about that for a second...  *twenty thousand people* - and the entire city destroyed. 

It is criminally insane for the rest of the World to stand back, and not send military forces to help Ukraine defend it's own lands.   We all are at risk, from a nuclear-armed nation-state that is willing to destroy a city, just so it can have a customs-free "land corridor" to it's other piece of stolen property.   The lack-of-action by the European, American and other military forces of the world, is just so weirdly wrong, that it is curious.  

We will have to engage Russia, go to war with them, and risk a nuclear conflict.  The Putin Regime, with it's "spy-murder-men / war to destroy cities / lie-lie-lie" political model is just not something the world can tolerate.   If it takes a nuclear war to end this, then that price must be paid.  

The nation of Ukraine will *never* be part of Russia after this.  What Putin's gangsters have done now in Ukraine cannot ever be forgiven or forgotten.  I never expected to see anything this awful insane - Nation-state organized terror &  mass-murder at scale - against ordinary modern people just trying to live their lives.   We thought this Hitler+Nazi stuff was in the past.  But Putin and Lukashenko have found Hitler's corpse, dug him up, and climbed into his skin, together.  The Ukraine Terror War is horror like in ancient times.

This absolutely changes everything.    We believe there is a very high probability that full-on war with Russia will have to take place, unless major regime-change can occur in that country.  Given the nature of Putin, and his murder-spy governance model, we do not believe this will happen internally.  So, we suspect that World War Three simply cannot be avoided.   What is curious, is that China will likely be our ally.

We should probably get started on this project while it has a chance of being doable, and has a good chance of success.  If we wait, the costs and the scale of destruction will be much greater.  We are certain of this.

And we must realize - there will be a significant number of Russians - who will be willing to fight FOR a Free Russia, and AGAINST Putin.   Our enemy is not Russia or the Russian people - it is the Putin Gangsters, and the terrorist-killers he has carefully and explicitly enabled.

[ Apr. 7, 2022 ] - German Defense Intelligence Intercepted Radio Messages from Russian Forces Describing Real-Time Killing of Civilians - Russian military radio traffic was monitored by German spy agency, as the mass murders of Ukrainian civilians in Bucha was taking place.   This is old-fashioned SIGINT - Signals Intelligence - spys listening to radio traffic.  This time, it has confirmed the Russian military chit-chatting about questioning & then killing civilians as part of their invasion actions.  Details were reported by German media group "Der Spiegel" - result of an intelligence briefing by the BND to German political persons.

https://www.spiegel.de/politik/ukraine-butscha-soldaten-besprachen-graeueltaten-gegen-zivilisten-ueber-funk-a-9e01662c-aa7e-4828-bf6f-f662d9b6164e

https://www.timesofisrael.com/german-intel-said-to-intercept-russian-communications-confirming-bucha-killings/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/07/bucha-german-intelligence-radio-bnd-russia/

(this African site below carries a difficult pictures - a group of dead civilian bodies - and a closeup of a dead woman's hand, with what appears to be a fingernail torn off.. )

https://osazuwaakonedo.news/us-germany-trace-russia-army-units-responsible-for-reckless-mass-killings-in-bucha/07/04/2022/

[ Apr. 6, 2022 ] - Zelenskiy, President of Ukraine, is Correct - Russia must be removed from the UN "Security Council" and designated a rogue, terrorist entity, the same as ISIS was.  

Zelenskiy is correct, when he says that Russia, and Putin's terrorist military, are no different than the ISIS terrorists. The Bucha atrocities are beyond even what ISIS did to it's civilians.  The Russian FSB Lie Squads - with their "Information Confrontation" strategies of deception and false-accusations, cannot succeed in their attempts to create doubt about this horror.  There are just too many corpses, and too much explicit evidence of the horror, and too many destroyed houses, mass graves, bodies in the streets, and eye-witness accounts of exactly what took place.

Of course, since the Russian state entities have nuclear weapons, they are a hundred times worse than ISIS.   The existence of Russia as a terrorist entity, threatens us all.  Nothing Russian government entities say can be trusted now.

The World cannot have a nation-state like Russia operating within it's midst, anymore than we could have Hitler's Death Camps and slave-labour factories still operating in Poland and Germany.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61003878

All Russian ports should be blockaded, and any Russian ships or aircraft should be siezed or embargoed, until regime-change occurs.    Russia as it exists now, must be ended, and replaced with new people in it's government.    Technical methods should be deployed to make this outcome occur.

The events in Bucha are only the beginning.  What is taking place in the south of Ukraine, where the coastal cities are being destroyed, is possibly even worse.

There is no justification whatsoever for this outrageous terrorism and horrific mass-murder that is taking place.  It is visible from satellite images, for god's sakes - and yet the Lie Squads in Moscow pump out their absurd cascades of deception.

I wish Ron Reagan were here.  He once joked, to test a microphone:  "I have just today signed legislation outlawing the Soviet Union.  The bombing will start in 5 minutes."  That was a jest. 

But now, of course, we could replace the words "Soviet Union" with "Russian Federation", and Ron's course of action would be considered fine, noble, necessary and justified - by all right-thinking people of integrity and honour.

At the very least, it is time for international military units to be deployed into Ukraine to assist the Ukrainian military, and repel the horrific terrorist assault that Ukraine is now facing. 

Mark these words:  If the World does not address the Russian Federation as the terrorist entity that it clearly is - now, when it can be shut-down with a solid show of co-ordinated force by Europe and North American forces - we will have to deal with an even greater and more awful Russian aggression and mass-murder in the near future.

There is no reason that NATO or the Allied Democratic Nations of the world need to sit on their hands, and not assist Ukraine in it's awful hour of need.  Putin is an abusive, sadistic bully and a traditional thug-leader.  Other nations have produced these kinds of abusive, dishonest leaders in various historical periods.  The key is to shut them down, with allied force.

Now would be good time to stand up to this ugly evil.   If Putin uses nuclear weapons, then we have our chance to effectively and completely disable this rogue terrorist state - and make the world a vastly better and safer place.

It is better to do this necessary confrontation NOW, rather than wait for the Russian terrorist monster to get stronger, and even more dangerous. 

Realize:  Nothing that Russian entities, spokesman, diplomats or Putin himself says or asserts, can be considers as true or accurate.   They are using a cascade of "information confrontation" deception, and the everything about the Ukraine Terror War confirms the truth of this assertion.

Russian information cannot be trusted.   Nothing they say can be trusted.   They - explicitly, as a matter of strategy - seek to create doubt, and use over-the-top lies as a technical methodology of information warfare.

We should do all we can to have our confrontation now, and begin the process of de-militarizing the Russian Federation.   They are evil, cruel, dangerous liars, and they now actively threaten the peaceful operation of the World.    They must be dealt with.

Better to do it NOW, when we have a good chance of forcing behaviour change and political change upon them.   If we wait until later, then the opportunity will have slipped by, and this may cost the world 100 years of hostility and ongoing warfare.

[ Apr. 4, 2022 ] - We Must Study War
- And we must win the war.  (Research log is below the four images).

BBC Report - A village Mayor - and her husband and son - were killed by Russian invaders.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60989632

[ Apr. 3, 2022 ] - I have lost objectivity now.   I have tried to remain objective and such, while researching the Terror war that Russia has unleashed on Ukraine, but the atrocities in Irpin and Bucha - suburbs of Kyiv which look so much like Southern Ontario towns - has done it for me.   I confess I am no longer able to maintain any objectivity.   The Putin fascists must be ended, regardless of what the costs are that we must face, and the risks we must accept.

I believe now - honestly in my heart - that Putin's Russia is something we must gear up to correct - with all global resources - and destroy, if necessary.   If I could - I would simply obliterate Moscow, and all the Russian military.  

If I could launch a nuclear strike on Putin's location, I would do it. 

We cannot share a planet with these murderous, psychopathic sadists.   We could not live with a Hitler, and his Death Camps and his invasions and organized murders of European Jews, and I believe now, we cannot live with Putin's fascist Henchmen, and his Chechen Death Squads, and his insane, murderous lies.  

I cannot see a way out of this, that does not involve ending Russia's ability to field any military or militia forces, or any forces of any kind, anywhere.   Their military must be completely expunged, and Putin must be tried for war crimes, and put in jail for the rest of his life, and/or executed.  

The BBC reporter walked thru Bucha, with Ukrainian soldiers, and counted over 20 bodies, lying on the streets of the town.  Many had their arms tied behind their backs, and most appeared to be shot in the back of the head.  Invading Russians simply took people from their homes, and killed them.   The invaders captured ordinary elderly civilians, killed them, and left their bodies in the streets.   Some corpses are booby-trapped, with explosives.   This was an ISIS trick, which Russians have adopted.  The Ukrainian soldiers have also discovered a lot of land mines.  The area is still very dangerous.

The people killed were just ordinary civilians who lived in this suburban village.  These Russian actions are War Crimes beyond even what Hitler's forces did in the 1940's.   Seriously, this is the truth.

Click on link below, to see the BBC report about Bucha, and what the Ukraine liberators discovered:  (Warning:  Difficult scenes... )

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60967463

This cannot stand.  The Ukraine Terror Atrocities must be avenged.  This is the World's 9/11.

- xxx -

[ Page down past the five image sections (with notes), to see the "Web-Log (Blog)" section, for daily notes, if you wish.  An earlier note - from several days ago, follows directly below...]

---

We've been doing some curious and serious research related to mass-influence driven human psychology models.

It turns out it is crazy easy to program masses of people, using modern technology.  This began with the printing-press, and political "tracts", which evolved into newspapers, which evolved into newsreels, which became "television", and then the internet.  It's a long-chain molecule of deception, and programmed disinformation.

You can ask a simple question: "Why has the World Gone Crazy?"   There are some clear answers to this query.

The pandemic is part - study the "Dancing Sickness" outbreaks after the Great European Black-Death Plagues, for some post-plague wild behaviour changes - at scale, across cultures.

But it gets worse, once the field of "weaponized information" is opened. 

The Russian KGB were absolute experts at this stuff.  They learned from the Germans, who used it to turn a small fringe political outfit in Munich, run by a clever-but-twisted fellow named Adolf H., into a mass-movement that captured the hearts and minds of enough German citizens - from all walks of life - sufficient to take control of the nation.   Watch Leni Reifenstahl's "Triumph of the Will".  It looks modern - but it was made in 1934.  

The KGB militarized this propaganda playbook, and it is up-and-running right exactly now in Russia, on the internet, on global social-media, and on the TV screens.   It is horrific.  It is lies.  And it works.

You might wonder about the weirdness of Donald Trump, or the use of old Joe Biden as the best choice the Democrat Party in USA could come up with, or the strangely weak-to-the-world, but brutal and hostile-to-Canadians fellow, named Justin, who had a clever Dad, and who now runs (sort of) Canada.    None of these strange shit-choices make any sense - until you put them into the context of a militarized conflict - except the militarization weapon is *information*, and the whole "Cascade of Lies" strategy - that characterizes just about everything we see and hear on electronic media now - except some direct channels of information from specific, individual persons, who try to puncture the almost-sealed mainstream-media filter-bubbles, that are wrapped around most people's internet experience now.

Yes, the political system is being hijacked and manipulated in nasty ways.

Yes, the media, the TV and the internet are trying to make your children "queer" and "gay".

Yes, the information that you can find on main-stream media is filtered, framed and directed to you, to achieve explicit political objectives. 

Yes, everything is becoming weirdly and wildly "political", in a nasty, dangerous and toxic way.

Russia is using - not just a "Big Lie" - but a cascading waterfall of continous deception - an actual "Tsunami of Lies" to promote it's outrageous mass-murder and State terrorism exercise in Ukraine.   It is not a "Special Military Operation" - it is an outright KGB-playbook example of State destruction and an attempt at the mass subjegation of human freedom - on a "blitzkreig" scale - a "Lightning War" to destroy a political movement and smaller nation which is based on simple honesty and democratic reality.     Ukraine - living in honesty and truth -  threatens Putin, so he is doing all he can to destroy it.

But it is not just Ukraine.

There are these astoninshing cultural movements (dis-information driven) in USA, which seem crazy and bizarre, until they are seen as militarized attempts to destroy the traditional values of honesty and common sense that have characterized USA since it's beginning.

Yes, the KGB (which does not even exist - it is now called the FSB) really does have long, detailed technical manuals, about how to de-stabilize a national government, how to get the people of a nation *fighting with each other* rather than fighting the external threat that is trying to destroy their national focus and ability ot operate as a common political entity.

Information can be - most effectively - weaponized.   The Catholic Church figured this out very early on, and used all the tricks - bells, smells and fear of hells - to subjegate all of Europe for many hundreds of years.   All religions do this.

In territory where Russians are in control, in Ukraine - the school kids are finding *all* Ukrainian symbols and even the Ukrainian language is being removed from classrooms.   The Russians have this classical "Playbook of State Subjegation" - and they are using it.  

What is happening in the USA - and Canada, the UK and Europe, is more subtle attempts - at every level - to degrade, damage and deface our historical, national characteristics.   Those who believe they should "nudge" humans to accept their political choices - are very much hard at work.  

We had thought Trump Phenomenon might be a reaction to this.  But it is possible, that Trump is actually a KGB/FSB Russian operative, and is part of the campaign to de-stabilize the USA.   He does not even actually know this, which makes it basically "Theatre of the Absurd" comical.

Don't think this is possible?   This concern was standard Hollywood fair, back in the 1960's, when people were just plain much smarter, than they are now.   The world had been through a hellstorm of world-war, that ended with nuclear weapons being used to destroy two Japanese cities.  The astonishing ramp-up of scientific knowledge - and it's application to real, practical engineering and social problems - was like nothing that came before or since.  USA entered and fought the Vietnam War, because it was the necessary and correct thing to do.   They simply decided not to actually *win* the war, out of fear of Russia.    Russia again - the destroyer of worlds, it seems.

Perhaps Trump really is "The Manchurian Candidate"?   (Screen John Frankenheimer's brilliant film, if you get a chance.  It was made in 1962, and really resonates, here in 2022...) 

In a sane and rational USA, both Biden and Trump, would stand together on a TV camera, and give the Russian goons 12 hours to remove their murder squadrons from Ukraine, and the stupid January 6th "insurrection" witch-hunt nonsense would simply be shut down.   Judges for the Supreme Court would be chosen based on the quality of their legal scholarship, and a careful examination of their written judgements.  They would not be chosen on the basis of skin colour and sex organs.

But now we have a non-racist American society - turning explicitly racist, and trying to queer-up it's children - and the cinema and TV shows reek of nothing but brutal, thrill-triggering violence and twisted sexuality.

One must rationally consider and suspect that the USA is being actively targeted in the most direct and explicit information-warfare assault in all of human history.

If USA can be weakened, and degraded, and the political and cultural groups in America can be made to fight with each other - instead of fighting the evil that is being actively deployed in the world - then we are all at risk.

The American Conservative movement should simply "Dump Trump", and get back to just lining up behind truth and honesty and fairness and old-fashioned "arsenal of Democracy" strength.

All the queer-gay-transgender nonsense should be told to stay in the bedroom or the cathouse where it belongs, schools should be run by the careful focus of scientists, not by unionized, second and third rate politicized Teacher's Unions, and political people should stop trying to manipulate and extend absurd social agendas and focus instead on using the taxation system to create defense technology for the nation, and build a better, more sane, relaxed world.

The Conservatives get a lot right.   And Biden is also right when he says that that murdering madman Valdimir Putin has to be removed from power.

We all need to stop fighting with each other over absurd issues that neither make any sense, nor can possibly benefit anyone, anywhere, in the long run - or even the short run.

And we need to get the State finances under some sort of rational control, so economic sanity can be maintained.   If not - we can say as Economists and social scientists - that we will absolutely track the Mathusian die-back curves, and experience war, starvation, and mass death, since the planet does not have infinite capacity to support unlimited population growth.  (Even if the human world does seem to have a capacity for infinite stupidity.)

The economic, trading, cultural and political situation in Europe, Ukraine and Russia, was in a fine and stable mode, until this idiot-monster Putin decided to destroy it all.  He must be ended.

What this means - is that all nations, must put aside their f*cking stupid (literally!) cultural conflicts, religious squabbles and racist cat-fights, and engage the necessary fight to remove this nuclear-armed lunatic from power in Russia.    We will then need a huge "Marshal Plan" to repair the damage in Ukraine, and also uplift the mass-poor in Russia. 

This is the only rational path forward. 

We may need a fairly big war, to make this happen.   But this cruel, insane mass bombing campaign in Ukraine, must end now.    And the USA must have leaders of each of it's political parties that can work together in a crisis.   We need to destroy Putin and save  Russia.   No other choice really remains.  We must repair a broken nation, controlled by a madman. That means the madman must first be neutralized.

And maybe the women should just stay home and have babies.   Yes, I know this is a crazy idea, but maybe family folks might want to give it a try.   It is actually a model for stability, that has worked pretty good in history.   The current model - where every low-IQ person is expected to do every damn thing in the world - this is not really good, nor is it a good idea to waste females on the battlefield, and in the world of business.  This is maybe part of what is making everyone crazy.  There is unwise confusion.

But maybe the very top leaders should be women.   Catherine the Great of Russia was a wise leader and Elizabeth the First of England was as well (and maybe HRH the Second also...).   They did pretty good work.  Germany did alright under Merkel, and Thatcher saved the UK from a time of political-economic foolishness.   Women in the very top jobs, could be something we might want to institutionalize.

We also need to re-design the United Nations, since it is badly broken, and does not work at all.

But first - we must get rid of Putin, and the Thug Murder-Monkey's of Russia.   They have to be ended, and this project should begin now.    There is too much unwise, painful death and destruction taking place in Ukraine, that will damage us all, if we do not take action now.

Here is what the Russian fascist army did to the pretty Kyiv suburb town of Irpin - and the families that lived there.   Ukraine soldiers that liberated the town found it destroyed, with corpses of civilians in the streets:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jHV-aZzxtY4

If we fail to act and correct this insane State-sanctioned murderous terrorist nightmare, it will dominate the next 100 years of our trans-national politics, and is certain to result in the eventual destruction of much of our civilization on this planet.   

Mariupol is becoming a Russian-made Christian Holocaust.  Russian terrorists will not be able to lie their way out of this fact.   If the forces of freedom and democracy do not help, and allow this city and it's people to be murdered, then the history of the next 100 years, will be all about obtaining revenge for this atrocity, and ensuring the complete destruction of Russia.    Removing Putin now, can save Russia, and save the future.  But if our governments in the West continue to sit on the sidelines, and let this awful murder exercise continue, then we are programming-in the Apocalypse.    We are very certain of this.

Vladimir Putin is a Dangerous, Sadistic War Criminal. He May Also Be Insane.

A Shopping Mall bombed in Kyiv by a Russian cruise missile. Putin's invasion of Ukraine is a terrorist exercise. Putin should meet the same fate as Osama Bin Laden. Reports indicate at least SEVEN innocent civilians were killed in this cowardly terrorist attack. Putin will pay, and will end his days in prison - or worse.

[ Apr. 4, 2022 ] - Details of the Mass Murder of Civilians in Bucha, Suburb Village of Kyiv - are even worse than originally suspected.  Based on the number of corpses - many with their hands or arms tied behind their backs - was thought to be less than 100.  It is now seen that the murder toll is likely to be many hundreds, (410 dead, is the number some sources are reporting) and perhaps even more.

The Russians - rather than showing any interest in trying to investigate what took place - are simply denying that it happened - despite the Ukrainian and UK investigations teams now on site, and the mass-graves being found - and initial photographs of the civilian victims that were discovered, lying in the street.  (Putting murdered civilians in the street is a terror-technique.  There are reasons why this was done, we suspect.  The Russian military likes to think it is "strong".)

We predict that open warfare with Russia will now occur - perhaps not until the current crop of European women-leaders and Putin-ally types are removed - but it will occur eventually.  Maybe by next year?  Or maybe next week?  Angela Merkel must deeply regret the error of trusting Putin.  Putin is a monster - and a deeply dishonest sociopathic liar.   Like the textbook sociopath, he can lie with great confidence.

Ukraine should have been given immediate NATO membership, as this would have prevented this viciously stupid invasion and mass-murder insanity.  War could have been avoided, if the European Union had shown strength of purpose, and stood up to the pure evil that Putin represents.

[ Apr. 2-3, 2022 ] - Crazy Russian Lie about Bioweapons in Ukraine - Refuted Even by Russian Microbiologist! - This Ukraine Invasion and Terror War of Putin's, is truly becoming insane and beyond anything that anyone could have imagined, two months ago.   The scale of the horror and terrorist attacks by Russian military in Ukraine is beyond anything we ever expected to see in Europe, except in 1940's newsreels or documentaries.  Russia has become this grotesque monster - and is now hated and despised all over the world. 

And the lies!  The insane, crazy lies that Putin's Henchmen are retailing to the Russian people, are beyond-belief crazy.   It is scary and fascinating - an entire nation is having the minds of it's people poisoned with these amazing lies:  

Even Russian Microbiologists are now saying this insane lie that there are "bioweapons labs" in Ukraine is an obvious lie - which can even be refuted by careful examination of the material the Russians themselves are publishing!

https://www.newsmax.com/scitech/biological-pathogens-labs-defense-ministry/2022/03/19/id/1061969/

Truth is being murdered in Russia, just like civilians are being murdered in Ukraine.  

This madness must be stopped.   Putin must be arrested and put on trial for war-crimes.

And apparently, Youtube will be banned in Russia as of April 5th.  This is so like Germany, under Hitler.  (They made radios, which did *not* have tuners - only pushbuttons for German stations.)

[ Apr. 2nd, 2022 ] - Logistics and Some Small Success - Hard bloody work, and difficult - but Ukraine forces move - villiage by villiage, farm by farm, to reclaim the land the fascist Russian invaders have occupied and destroyed.  Russia will be corrected, I promise this. 

Here is video, of a villiage being liberated - not Russian lie-videos, but actual "living in truth" videos of actual entry by Ukraine Military - into occupied areas.  Never thought in 2022, we would be living/seeing this:   (Video of Ukrainian village being liberated from Russian fascist invaders... We are impressed by the tenacity and courage of the Ukrainian Military.)

https://youtu.be/WSZLtHyc0Mc

"In the fighting, the Armed Forces of Ukraine liberated the settlement of Nova Basan in the Chernihiv region. This was reported by the Military.

In the settlement the enemy suffered losses in armored
 vehicles and manpower. Residents of the village of Nova Basan were happy 
to welcome the Ukrainian military, who
liberated them from Russian occupation.
"

[The above is auto-translation from Ukraininan cyrillic to English, using Google Translate]

We support Ukraine. We read some of the material on USA so-called "conservative" websites, and
we are certain the writers of the anti-Ukraine dis-info, are being paid by Russian agents.

The world is a tiny village now.
We are all in this fight. We are conservatives - and we believe that Putin
must be tried and convicted of war-crimes. Russia must be de-militarized

[ Apr. 1st, 2022 ] - Russia is Taking Hostages Now in Ukraine - Thousands of Them! - That whole history-of-Russia thing: They say in Russia, just when you think it could not get any worse - it then gets worse.   Russian forces have kidnapped several *thousand* Ukraine citizens from Mariupol, stolen all their stuff, taken their passports, and shipped them to a Concentration Camp! ( which is a cold, tent city of blue plastic tents that can be seen from satellite images) inside Russia.  

This is actually a "black-letter-law" kind of war crime - the forcable deportation of populations of people from their homelands, against their will.  It is basically a mass hostage-taking - by a murder-army that is behaving as terrorist killers and thieves.   "Operator Starsky" documents this - from the front lines, near Kyiv and Irpin:  (This guy is amazing.  He is actually right there, making these youtube-videos!)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=opqBC4mpRqw

We need to take this war to Moscow, is the feeling one gets.   But not like Napolean - more like Iraq - or even Hiroshima.   Putin is a war criminal, a terrorist, and the person that ordered the murder of Boris Nemtsov.  We agree with USA President Biden:  Putin cannot remain in power.

BBC Report - Evidence of Horrific War Crimes Near Kyiv.  Corpses of  many unarmed civilians killed along highway into Kyiv.  (Warning..  difficult to watch)

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60949791

It's time for the military forces of the world to now enter this fight.  This is not just a Ukraine problem now.  This affects all of us.  It is a world problem.  The World is now at war with Russia.  No other possible choice exists.

[ Mar. 30, 2022 ] - Russia Fake Videos & Explanation How We Know They Are Fake - This is really interesting.  There are fake Russian-made videos that pretend to show Ukrainian soldiers killing Russian hostages and prisoners.   These videos are provable fakes.  They are Russian-made, and specific items in the videos themselves establish that they are bogus. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IUfG1HG-4XQ

What Putin is doing in Ukraine is not acceptable.  It must not stand.  We are at a major, significant turning point in human history.  This situation is now as critical as at the beginning of the two previous World Wars.  Few people recognize this yet, and the weak leadership in Europe and North America fails to understand this also, we suspect.    The failure of the United Nations to have any meaningful impact on this absurd nightmare proves that that institution is so deeply flawed that it is now essentially worthless.

All military forces in the World need to act together, to assist in the immediate neutralization of the Russian invasion assault on that country.  Putin himself must be arrested for illegal mass-terrorism and mass-murder.  He must be stopped and his forces neutralized.   The planet is too small and crowded now, for this sort of murderous madness to be allowed.   Those Nation-State leaders who argue that we must "not get involved", for various legalistic reasons, will go down in history as the grotesque group of "Weak Leaders who Failed to Act" and caused the "The Great Collapse of Free Europe" - a period of many years of darkness and conflict, that looms before us all, if Putin's Terrorists are not completely and absolutely defeated.

[ Mar. 29, 2022 PM ] - Putin Needs to be Dealt With -  We (the World) must risk nuclear war with this Putin character.  He and his Thug Army of Terrorists are not fit to walk in this world.  We have the technology to remove this person, and we and many others, believe the time has come, and we must now use it.  

He sleeps somewhere, and uses a toilet somewhere.   The abusive Russian assault in Ukraine is pure terrorism - it is not even warfare - it is just KGB/FSB terror tactics that would offend even Stalin or Hitler.  Putin is a human nightmare - an abusive terrorist and possibly a madman, and he must be dealt with accordingly.    The risks of leaving this fellow in charge of nuclear-armed Mother Russia are too great.   We doubt Putin will not make any kind of peace with Ukraine.   We envision a scenario where he will just lie and delay and will keep attacking and killing until he is stopped, or Ukraine is destroyed.

Osama Bin Laden was a problem, and the USA took action.  But this is just Osama Bin Laden, with nuclear weapons, and a giant Thug Army at his disposal.  This presents a bigger problem, but a targeted strike on the location of this creature, could result in a return to peace.

It would be foolish and dangerous - at this point - to think that one could negotiate with Putin or his terrorist army.  Putin is a liar.  He cannot be trusted.   His reduction of military effort around Kyiv is because a large portion of his military in that area has been seriously degraded or effectively neutralized, if not outright defeated.  Putin is not "shifting focus from Kyiv", he is papering an effective military defeat with yet another lie.

President Biden of the USA is absolutely correct.   This Putin character cannot remain in power.  His reign of criminal terror needs to be ended.   We have to roll the big dice, and risk the big move here - else this vicious, sadistic ex-KGB spy-boy may well try to kill the whole world.  

[ Mar. 29, 2022 ] - Irpin Liberated from Invading Russian Forces - According to Operator Starksy - Just learned about this fellow, and his Youtube channel.   He is Ukrainian dude, reporting from front lines around Kyiv - in English, which is helpful for us.  Ukraine needs to get some of those Polish MIG-29's, along with some ordnance to fit on them, to help remove Russian artilery positions firing on Kyiv.  Assaults with Russian cruise missiles against Lviv shows how nasty Putin's Russia is being in this war.   The Russians attack civilians, as a pure exercise in terror.  This must be resisted.   This entire Russian "Special Military Operation"  must end in complete failure, and in Putin's removal as Russian leader.     Ukraine needs a "Lend-Lease" augmentation to it's air force.  And some tanks and APC's also.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cUap7S7elHc

[ Mar. 27-28, 2022 ] - Strong Evidence Exists that Boris Nemtsov was Killed by Putin's FSB Agent, Valery Sukharev - Boris Nemtsov was not just a "Putin critic."  In the 1990's, he was Deputy Premier of Russia.  He was supposed to take over after Yeltsin.  There is very strong evidence that Putin's FSB (the "Federal Security Bureau" - successor spy organ to the KGB) had Nemtsov murdered - only steps from the Kremlin, in 2015. 

This was the beginning of the end for Russian freedoms. Direct evidence has been obtained - which actually comes from the FSB's own data tracking system - that Nemstov was being shadowed  ("tailed") by a specific FSB agent - Valery Sukharev -  on 13 seperate trips.   Nemtsov was a good man - and was expected to be the successor the Boris Yeltsin, but Putin managed to get the job, and forced Nemtsov out.   There are honorable and good people in Russia, who want this war-and-murder madness to end - but they are being targeted by FSB agents and Putin gang-members.    They are being poisoned and/or jailed.   This is seriously wrong, and it is getting worse now... much worse.

This is not "fake news" or conspiracy fabrication - this is documented evidence that comes from the FSB's own tracking database (called "Magistral"), and is reported on in detail, by the BBC:  (Link to details below)

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60878663

There is a dangerous world-storm brewing, because Russia is being destroyed by extremist criminal gangster forces.  And it appears Vladimir Putin is behind this ugly nightmare.  USA President Biden was right when he said in Warsaw: "For God's Sakes, this man cannot remain in power!", referring to the murderer, Vladimir Putin, who still is acting as leader of Russia.  (Youtube clip of Warsaw speech):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VLN_P5u1ALI

We agree with President Biden.  He spoke the truth.

The last independent newpaper/media outlet in Russia was forced to shut down today.  Novaya Gazeta - founded in part by Mikhail Gorbachev, back in 1993 - has had to close, due to threats from the Russian media regulator.   There are now *no* independent news or media outlets operating in Russia.   Putin has effectively erased or imprisoned all his political opponents, and has shutdown all media which does not report and retail his outrageous nonsense lies about Ukraine being controlled by Nazis.  

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-novaya-gazeta-newspaper-pauses-activities-after-official-warning-2022-03-28/

We think Bill Ackman is right.  The Third World War has now officially begun.  Biden and the Europeans are afraid to deploy troops to Ukraine.  This is unfortunate, since we suspect this means that when the Free World does have to engage the Russian nightmare, it will be a much bigger and more militarized Russia that we will all have to face - and defeat.

The best time to fix a really horrible problem, is when it is still small.   But sadly, many people fail to see just how horrible and awful this current problem is.   But those of us who are blessed (or cursed) with the ability to see how scenarios will most likely unfold - must suffer greatly, as we have to watch in horror as the preventable disaster unfolds before our eyes.

For God's sakes, leader-people, if you know that this dishonest, war-making Putin character is this extreme threat to the Free World, then please TAKE ACTION and address this ugly threat effectively.   The body-count from this killer, is growing too high.   Stop him!

We can say with some certainty, that "sanctions" and economic threats will have no chance at all, of changing Putin's behaviour.  We are *most certain* of this.  DIRECT ACTION is required.

[ Mar. 25, 2022 ] - How to Donate Money to Ukrainian Military Charity - I have never donated money online to a charity in my life.  Until now.   I sent a couple of thousand "Hryvnia"  (UAH is the currency code) to this charity.   I hope it is legitimate.  I used the "Fondy" system, and a Canadian Visa card.   The rate looks to be about 85 bucks Canadian, (update: it was $88.36, as charged to my Visa card account), which will also have a 2.5% commission tacked on.  Here is the URL, which I got from the Youtube video of the "Orsk" being blown to burning hell.   Damn straight work, gentlemen.  If I spoke Ukrainian or Russian, I would probably just go and help out.  

This Russian invasion of Ukraine is just so goddamn unacceptable, it's almost beyond belief.  If our governments will not act, then private citizens must take action.   This Russian illegal murder madness must be stopped.  Invading Russian murder-squadrons must be *completely* neutralized.   NATO forces are not required to sit on their arses.   What Russia is doing violates - completely - all civilized behaviour and basic human law.   Here is a link to a Ukraine military charity:

https://savelife.in.ua/en/donate/ 

I did a little research project on Fondy, and it looks ok.  If I get any negative consequences (ie. someone hacks my card info, or whatever), I will post the information here.  (Update: transaction looks clean and ok, so far.  Update2: We did get a bogus email pretending to be from "Canada Post" about a "shipment that could not be delivered".  We know this email is bogus, due to it containing a link to an S3 Amazon server (spoofing as the "Canada Post" website), and a source email address from a non-local overseas website.  The email had a clickable link, which would have been used to harvest information and/or drop a toxic binary payload onto our machine.  We get so many bogus email-fraud messages, that this might have been unrelated to the Ukrainian donation.  Basic data hygiene:  Never click on an email link, to open a webpage, and always clear cookies, browser-cache and history, after any financial transaction.)  

We typically now have to use online-payment methods for many transactions now - so just use common sense, and clear your cookies and browser cache and such, after any payment is made, etc.  But the Ukrainian URL looks legit, and so does Fondy.    I am just so angry about this whole Russian Invasion thing - myself and some others had done some serious work to establish good, honest, fine economic systems in Eastern Europe, and here this crazy Russian spymaster Putin, with early Alzhiemer's, is back to this "Send in the Tanks, and crush the Civil Society!" war nonsense.  It is unwise, illegal, cruel and it will do terrible damage to Russia itself.

This horrific, illegal Ukraine invasion will not stand, I promise this.   It's open-season on Russian assets and Russian killers.   Get busy, folks.   In the words of Warren Zevon:  "Send lawyers, guns and money."     We are working on a plan.  Will update here, if it can be pulled together, and made to work.  We have to make sure we stay on the right side of our local law.

[ Mar. 24, 2022 ] - In Berdyansk, the Russian Warship "Orsk" is Sent to Hell  - Where it belongs, along with it's murderous mission.  Footage of the explosions in occupied Berdyansk harbour show what happened.  We have been wondering if and when Russian warship traffic would be addressed.  There is nothing easier to hit than a fat ship full of murdering pirates, if you have the basic technology - cannons, missiles, or DEWs.   And a ship full of war materials - typically ammunition and explosive ordnance - blows up real good.  Take a look at the action in the harbour,  at invader-occupied port of Berdyansk:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DxspTUgT_fY

Someone has posted another copy of the same video at this URL.    The "Orsk" is the burning ship, and the video shows another badly damaged warship (burning, in the background) leaving the harbour, while in the foreground, what appears to be an undamaged warship is also leaving.     Dramatic footage...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PuroZQ5Vfww

This is a low-resolution cell-phone video, picked up by the BBC, of the same scene, without much detail:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60859337

In Boris Johnson's words: "Russian actions have crossed a red-line into barbarism."  We agree.  The above is Ukraine Navy action.  As for Air Force, a Ukrainian Defense Industry company has an interesting offer - One million US dollars for any Russian pilot who defects to the side of Freedom, with a Russian warplane:

https://ukroboronprom.com.ua/en/news/ukroboronprom-gotovii-viplatiti-premiyi-za-vikradenu-boiovu-aviaciinu-texniku-okupantiv1

The Ukrainian Air Force hopes to add to its strength, with additional Russian MIGs, Sukoi jets, or attack helicopters.  We hope they get takers of this offer.  Freedom is better than slavery.  The legal system in Russia is controlled by Putin yes-men - viz. the new, additional 9-year sentance handed to already-imprisoned Navalny, without him even having a chance to offer any sort of meaningful legal defense.   No one is safe from Putin's henchmen now, in the Russia Putin is trying to create.

More Talk, Talk, & Talk:  NATO folks, leaders, ministers and Biden and Johnson are getting together to do some more talking.  The UK is promising 6000 missiles for Ukraine.   Talk is noise, but missiles are good.   Germany sent 50 Mercedes trucks with red crosses painted on them.  We fear the Russians will use these big red images as targets.

The Free World is lucky to have Johnson, Scholz and Zelenskiy.  Shame about weak Mr. Biden.

This horrible and insane exercise in un-needed, fake-news+lie-driven combat-conquest could be over in 15 minutes, if the talkshop folks at NATO could get off their arses, and just take some initiative.   Just call it a "forward defense exercise" and quickly go in and neutralize a bunch of Russian terrorist assets.  Let's be clear.  This is a terror-war of pure conquest.  It threatens the Free World.  Putin is calling the brutal Ukrainian terror-war a "special military operation".   NATO could call it's response the establishment of a "forward threat-facing preliminary European defensive envelope".    Ask Sweden if they would like to help.  Make it a non-NATO exercise, if necessary.  

Sitting on our arses, while democratically-run modern European cities are bombed and overrun by murdering military-supported terrorist invaders, is just not acceptable.  Those burning cities are us.  We are them.  Those dying Ukranians are our people.

Our research suggests that the outrageous American "cut-and-run" weakness Biden showed to the World, in the tragic Afghanistan withdrawal, has been a key trigger of this Ukraine invasion nightmare.  Putin watched as American forces literally ran away in the night, and decided to try to exploit this sad weakness, by simply taking Ukraine by conquest.  IF we don't stop this madman now, (we believe he has lost his sense of balance, and has early-stage dementia), he is certain to continue to kill.  The greatest escalation, will come from further inaction on the part of the West.   Putin probably believes he is being Alexander Nevsky.  But in fact, he is being the hated invader - much like a Mongol warlord.   Putin betrays Russia.

This bad action will only be ended by forceful confrontation - sanctions will have *ZERO* effect, and will be used by Putin to make his cruel position stronger.    This is so obvious, it is painful to watch the Biden crew fuck around with economic sanctions.  The sanctions are unfair, abusive and silly.  They will only hurt those who have no ability to alter the course of events.  They will damage Europe, annoy ordinary Russians, hurt American interests, and strengthen Putin's hold over the Russian state.   Sanctions have not worked in the past, and they will have little positive effect here.  Direct action - military assistance to Ukrainian democratic state, and direct confrontation of Putin's terror squadrons - is the only rational course of action.   If this is not done, much more needless death will occur.     We are certain of this.

Another brave journalist - a Russian woman of integrity and courage - was murdered by Russian shelling in Kyiv today.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2022/03/24/russian-journalist-oksana-baulina-killed-ukraine/7150709001/

None of this horrorshow of pain and cruelty needed to happen.  Terrorism is bad business all around.  But it requires active threat management, in real-time.  Bad shit must be stopped, early on, before it gets out of hand.   And it is now, most very much out of hand.   Hey NATO!   Act!

[ Mar. 23, 2022 ] - Sold, But Could Not Stay Out- FD: We exited, at a profit, our trading portfolio.  We believed markets are were under-estimating the damage and economic dislocation the Russian Terror War in Ukraine will have on the World.  

But, price for our testbed equity fell sharply, and we re-bought, due to inflation fear.  Which is better?  Having an equity position?  Or having cash in an account?  Historical research suggests holding quality equity is better by a significant degree.   Scary times, but one must act when action is called for, even if risk is high.  (Especially if risk is high...). 

An Honourable Man of High Integrity, Resigns, Bows Out, and Leaves the Country:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-reformer-chubais-leaves-post-putins-special-representative-source-2022-03-23/

Yeltsin, Chubais and the other Reformers - great men who built a new Russia of freedom and prosperity.   We followed young Chubais closely.  His reforms were clever and successful. Vladimir Putin, the German Stasi-spymaster, is now destroying what was a properous Russian success story.   What a curious nightmare.  

Russian terror troops are killing aged citizens in Ukraine city of Irpin, and are raping any women they can find.  Seriously.   Detailed eyewitness accounts are available, if one has the stomach to read them.

https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/russian-troops-ukraine-rape-kill/2022/03/23/id/1062546/

[ Mar. 22, 2022 ] - New War & New Weapons - We keep finding evidence for a significant breakthru in what are now termed:  "DEWs" - directed energy weapons.    With modern aircraft and spacecraft, you do not need to physically "melt" anything, you simply need to supply enough violent electrical energy transients (voltage "spikes") to the platform, to fully-disable the onboard computers and the servo-motors and/or their power supplies, which operate the control-surfaces of the aircraft or spacecraft.  

We suspect that there is a very small, but non-zero probability, that Chinese Flight MU5735, which appeared to dive vertically into the ground, may have been subject to this kind of attack - perhaps by accident.   Or possibly it was pilot suicide.   The aircraft entered a vertical dive from 29,000 feet, and in roughly 1 minute, 35 seconds, the aircraft had fallen 26,000 feet.  Video footage capture by a mining company security camera, shows an aircraft in a full nose-down dive, rapidly tracking vertically towards the ground.

There is evidence that DEWs (directed energy weapons) are in existence, which possibly could electrically "scramble" fly-by-wire aircraft controls. (Fly-by-wire means that there are no physical linkages to aircraft control-surfaces - the elevators, rudder and ailerons.  Wires connect to servo-motors, which provide electricity to control these motors, which then move these control surfaces, as the pilot moves the control wheel or joystick on the flight-deck.  Older aircraft had physical cables and pulley configurations, which would move the control surfaces in response to pilot control wheel or stick movements, and/or rudder-pedal movement.)

https://eurasiantimes.com/chinas-big-breakthrough-in-directed-energy-weapons-china-starlink/

As the above article indicates, the Chinese research in high-energy DEW technology is public knowledge.

The modern research on DEWs goes back roughly 42 years, and was begun seriously in the West by President Ronald Reagan.  (There were satirical comments of him as "President Raygun"),    But DEW technology is no longer in the realm of science fiction.  It is real, and is being battlefield-tested.   A US Defense Department report from September, 2021, (only 6 months ago), describes some of the existing and planned technology:

https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R46925

The ugly, brutal and senseless invasion of Ukraine, by a newly beligerent Russian Federation, under the personal control of what may be a madman with early-stage dementia, leads us to believe that there will now be *substantial* increases in military spending, by all nations.

If Chinese Flight MU5735 was shot down by a DEW - perhaps by accident - then it might explain the curiously awful final flight-profile.   As 737 pilots have indicated - a suicidal pilot would have to disable several systems, and work hard to maintain a vertical dive.      We could envision a scenario where a radar-guidence system and the linked DEW were under test, and with the system pointed skyward, unintended target acquisition occurred along with weapon activation.  The whole idea of DEWs is to be able to rapidly engage cruise-missile targets, and disrupt the missile in flight.

The horror of the destruction of that major shopping centre in Kyiv, by Russian terrorist forces, shows how awful cruise-missile assault can be, and demonstrates the importance of developing active measures to counter this kind of targeted terror weapon.

We are seeing 70 year-old "science fiction" war-stories come to life as an ugly reality.  It is curious how so many people seem to be oblivious to how seriously dangerous this new reality actually is.   War can now come from the sky, and be controlled and directed by small groups of very bad people, thousands of miles away. 

The whole world will thus become the battlefield.

[ Mar. 21, 2022 ] - Putin is a Terrorist & Must Be Ended - So many learned folks are saying Putin is becoming like Hitler - crazy, aggressive and dangerous.   But we disagree.  We think he is more like Osama Bin Laden.   He is a global terrorist of the first level now.   His actions have crossed into pure evil.  No additional analysis is required.  This is an ancient human problem, and it is often the reason for great wars.   No other choice is possible.

Early this morning, in Kyiv, Putin's terrorists destroyed a shopping centre, using cruise missiles. 

Reports indicate at least 8 people were killed in this terrorist attack.

Imagine the Eaton Centre in Toronto as a smoking ruin, with all the early-AM workers - young female shop clerks - lying dead or dying, inside the rubble and smoking debris.  You can see it all, on the BBC.

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-60802572

This is madness - but more importantly - it is pure, and simple *terrorism* of the very top level.   There is no military objective here.  The plan is to starve and terrorize the Ukrainian civilian population, and then move in with murdering shock-troops to steal the city.  We doubt this plan will work out.  London did not surrender to Hitler.   And we doubt that Kyiv will surrender to Putin.

Again, this is a very old, and very ugly model of brutal conquest.  Putin is the Nazi, and the world knows it.

Rubicon is crossed.   We - and by that, I mean the entire World Community - will have no choice, except a full-on war with Putin's murderers in control of the Russian Federation.   Putin is assuming Biden of the USA will sit still and do nothing.  This may be the case - but eventually, we will have to systematically destroy the Russian capacity to wage these kinds of "terror-wars" against those whom their disturbed leaders view as threats.  Biden may need to be replaced.  This may happen quite soon, we suspect.  Talk-talk-talk time is ending, and sanctions have never stopped anything.

We advise people to prepare their own plans, for a "nuclear winter".   It seems both unwise and simply unacceptable, that we share a planet with the murder-over-the-horizon killers of the Russian Military.   All Russia's military forces will have to be neutralized - there is really no other alternative possible.    RIght now, Ukrainian cities are burning.  Sadly, we are certain the war is certain to end with Russian cities burning.  This is sad.  I liked Russia, very much.

We have no direct knowledge of exactly what happened to that Chinese Boeing aircraft - except that it showed no evidence of structural failure, and appeared to make a vertical descending dive into the ground.  (We have seen the photos)  Perhaps it was a suicide by the pilot, or a terrorist-takeover of the flight deck.  Or perhaps a computer failure?   Our fear, of course, is that it was a test of a new Russian weapon system - and signal to China - not to assist the Americans.

The July 2014 downing of Flight MH17, is similar.  Portable missile launchers were used:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-48691488

If the plasma particle-beam weapons really do exist, and were deployed here, then this was a horrific but convincing demonstration of new capability.

It is possible that Russia - and it's 2000+ tactical and strategic nuclear weapons - is now in the direct control of a meglomaniacal madman - but one with sufficient ability to do massive damage to the future of our World.

We had thought the War would be with China.  Wrong.  China will be our *ally*.  The War will be with the Russian Gangster terrorists in control of the Russian Federation. 

Any action to remove or neutralize Putin and the persons who support his terrorism, seems to be indicated now. 

I don't want to live on a World, where some angry lunatic in Moscow can wipe out our shopping centres, destroy our food-supply-chains, kill our women & children, and hold the whole world hostage to his terrorist demands.  We must deal with this.  We must act.

This Putin person must have his command, control and communication capability terminated, his nuclear weapons destroyed on the ground, and he himself, must be personally neutralized - perhaps in the manner historical Russian leader Catherine the Great did with her cruel and abusive husband, Peter.

[ Mar. 17, 2022 ] - Western Military Forces Must Assist Ukraine Citizens - The Russian "negotiations" are fake.  Russian gangsters supporting Putin, are making no serious effort to negotiate at all. 

https://www.news24.com/news24/World/News/france-says-russia-pretending-to-negotiate-in-ukraine-talks-20220317

Putin truly is a war-criminal.   United Nations "PeaceMAKER" forces must enter this conflict and assist the legitimate Ukrainian Government.   The alternative is a perfect Holocaust that will stain history - especially Russian history -  into the far future, if not forever.   Putin's lies are only making the madness worse.   Our estimates - which are simple and easy to make - suggest that hundreds of thousands will begin to starve to death within one week.

There is no chance of any Russian benefits or "security improvements" that can come from this process, unless Russian forces engineer the mass-murder of hundreds of thousands of citizens, and reduce Ukraine to a giant forced-labour camp. 

This was done to Ukraine once before, under Stalin.  Over 1 million people were deliberately starved to death, after their property was seized.  To stand aside, and allow this kind of sadistic political-economic calculus to be carried out again, is not acceptable.

https://www.businessinsider.co.za/ukrainian-man-describes-life-in-russia-occupied-kherson-2022

We use our AI-technology for effective economic investment activity.  But the economics of this madness, can be well-estimated on the back of any envelope.   Russian forces are engaged in an attempt to engineer a very large mass-murder.   Again. 

For this to take place, in 2022, is just insane and unacceptable.

A great crime like this is worth risking a nuclear conflict for.    We cannot stand aside and allow this new Holocaust to continue.

I have a small wooden "Devushka" doll on my desk, (a "Милая девушка") given to me by a Russian friend and painted in bright colours, with a pretty face that is smiling.   I looked at her today, and I saw tears in her eyes.    Maybe the tears were mine.

[ Mar. 16, 2022 ] - Putin is a War Criminal Who Must be Destroyed - If we do not send military forces to help the Ukrainians, our leaders will be guilty also.  This is now becoming an event like the Holocaust - an insane, organized attempt to carry out illegal mass-murder, under the guise of bogus "military operations".   There are those of us, who will not stand for this.   Sanctions are insufficient.   The Russian "forces" in Ukraine must be vapourized.

https://www.news24.com/news24/World/News/they-are-so-young-corpses-pile-up-in-mykolaiv-morgue-20220316

The victims in Ukraine are us.   We are them.   This murder campaign will be ended, and Putin will rest in the grave of history, alongside Hitler, Goebbels and Himmler.

https://www.news24.com/news24/World/News/ukraine-says-its-launching-counteroffensives-against-russian-forces-20220316

[ Mar. 15, 2022 ] - Ukrainain War is A War for Human Freedom, Against Forces of Murderous Criminal Invaders - It is just so wrong, to stand aside, and let this independent nation of Ukraine be smashed and bombed by a brutal, powerful force of murderous invaders.  NATO is a non-issue, and if a nuclear-armed nation is now to use it's nuclear-weapons to blackmail the World, while it commits atrocities and mass-murder, then we must do more than just turn off their VISA cards.   We have no choice but to stand up to this illegal invasion & mass-murder madness.

We tell Putin:  "You launch, asshole, then we launch, also.  ALL your military dies, and you die too.  You *might* kill us, but you *will* kill Russia.  But we will not launch unless your forces do.  You fucking well know this.

Now, about Ukraine.  We are sending in troops to defend an independent nation, under attack by illegal invaders.  This is a "police action".   We are invoking:  "Escalate, to de-escalate."  Look it up, or ask an analyst.   This shit is stupid, cruel, and evil.   And it we are going to end it right now.

We had to do this during the Berlin Airlift.   If Russia uses nuclear weapons, then we will use nuclear weapons - either now or at some point in the future.   We all know this.

This invasion and military-murder shit must stop - pregnant women being murdered by the careful cluster-bombing of a Children's Hospital?! - this must fucking well stop, and if it does not, then maybe it is time for the nuclear weapons to come out, and bloody well be used, because we cannot share a planet with fucking murder-monster who is killing cities and our women in Ukraine.    Vladimir Putin - you were once a wise and honourable statesman.  But you have become an evil monster.  This stops - and we are going to stop it."

This is what we must say.  It is now the only sane choice.   If we let Ukraine fall, then I make a simple forecast:  All our weak political persons and "leaders"  that allowed this horror-show to happen, will be removed from power.  Every. Single. One.   And new, very angry, focused men and women will replace them, and then they will do the job.  Except the job will cost so much more to do, if we wait.   Deaths now, are measured in thousands.  If we wait, and do not oppose this Putin character now, then the deaths will be measured in the millions.

It's time.  Fucking hell - I am damn near Putin's age, and I would *pay money* for the privilage of going on project to destroy some of these criminal monsters invading Ukraine.  The world is just too small now, to let this sort of shit happen, without it being opposed by the good guys. 

If we don't put out this fire of madness now, it will - we are certain - burn up the whole World.

[ Mar. 14, 2022 ] - UN Military Forces Needed in Ukraine Now - Canadians & Americans Agree - A nightmare murder-machine is attacking a European Nation.  Europe and the World must stop it.  Wise men with experience now admit this truth.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/send-nato-troops-to-western-ukraine-russia-putin-tyrant-military-invasion-sanctions-11647195552

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/03/ben-rhodes-alexey-navalny-maria-stepanova/627049/

Here is what the defense of Mariupol looks like, from inside a Ukrainian APC (a BTR-4, an 8x8 wheeled vehicle, with 30mm rapid-fire gun).  They have the courage to fire on a T-72 tank (which they are no match for), but they reverse, and see a BMP. which our data says uses a 73mm cannon.  The Ukrainians rapid-fire on the BMP, and manage to destroy it.

https://youtu.be/9aR2XnMzFrg

 "Zed's dead, baby.  Zed's dead."

We must help these people.  Deus Vult.   Why?    See this BBC report:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60734706

It's not just that the Putin's Russians are carrying out this insane, barbaric mass-murder exercise - it is also that they are creating this monster lie-machine to try to mislead and dis-inform the world.   Putin has not just become a Nazi Hitler-clone, he has also brought Joseph Goebbels back from the grave.  For students of history, the absurd Russian official lies about the Putin War in the Ukraine is like seeing a horrible Nazi nightmare brought to vivid life - but with the Russians playing the part of the Nazi invaders.   This is madness, and it must be ended.

[ Mar. 13, 2022 ] - Bounty is Closer to $20 Million US Dollars, Now, for Removal of Putin - Here is a news item from several days ago, which is blocked on most social media and news sites, for legal reasons:

https://www.businessinsider.co.za/russian-businessman-puts-1-million-bounty-on-putins-head-2022-3

We have evidence that the bounty is now closer to $20 million, given the pledges by other affected individuals and those who are disgusted and extremely angry about the illegal and brutal terror campaign being conducted by Russian military forces in Ukraine acting on Putin's orders.

We stress that we would like to see Valdimir Putin arrested and put on trial for war crimes and the criminal use of Russia's national Defense Forces.   His actions violate the laws of all civilized nations, and he must be brought to justice, and his terrorist actions ended by any means possible.

We will commit $1000 CDN to this bounty effort, for any person or group which can arrest Putin for his war crimes, and/or neutralize him.   Russian tanks have driven over cars in Ukraine with unarmed civilian people in them.  They have shot at and killed civilian people driving in their cars.   Putin's terrorists have targeted, shelled and bombed Children's Hospitals, knowing exactly what they were doing (they have accurate ORION devices, a Russian GPS).   Russian operatives are kidnapping the elected mayors of occupied cities.  These actions are war crimes. 

The orders to do these criminal acts came from Vladimir Putin, the person that is acting in the role of President of Russian Federation.

If every angry person commits to pay at substantial amount to those who bring Putin to justice, we can get this bounty up to a very large number - perhaps into the billions of dollars.   Every angry person on Earth, should promise to pay at least $20 US, to the person or group of persons who neutralize Putin's abusive reign of terror, and bring this criminal to justice.

Putin looks like a hairless version of the German Knight in the 1938 film, "Alexander Nevsky".   Maybe he could be traded for soap.

[ Mar. 12, 2022 ] - Madness in Power - This was supposed to be an interesting-results blog, for our little research-consulting effort. We have built some good stuff that works.

Now, it seems to have become a kind of "Diary of Anna Frank" detailing the end-of-the-world as we know it.  We are seeing high-madness in action.  Ukraine must win it's fight, or Europe and maybe the World will be horribly damaged, far in to the future.   Like it or not, the World is now at war.  Most people don't even realize it yet.

Putin is going "all-in" with lies and terrorist violence - even abducting the mayor of a Ukrainian city.  Russian terrorists - acting for Putin - kidnapped the civilian Mayor of city of Melitipol, and put a plastic-bag over his head as they did it.  The man may be dead.  And this actually violates Geneva-convention agreements about not attacking civilian administrators during wartime - even Hitler's stormtroopers did not stoop to this kind of abusive, terrorist-style depravtiy.  They wanted to hold the lands they took.  Putin just wants to terrorize & destroy.

Russian representatives to the UN, are now telling absurd, made-up insane lies - to the world community at the United Nations - a forum that even Stalin respected.  The absurd pretext of "American weapons labs doing bio-research in Ukraine" is such an over-the-top whopper of a lie, that it proves beyond all doubt one of two things: 

1) Either the Russian administration of Valdimir Putin is simply insane, and is made up of insane people who are running on automatic control, or

2), Putin *really* wants a major war, and is prepared to engineer assault efforts against the whole world, regardless of the damage it does to Russia, it's reputation, and it's future.  He has chosen the path of terror, by careful calculation, and wants the violence to expand.

Russia had become a modern, honest, respected European nation.   Putin's willingness to destroy everything that the Russian people have created, shows the actions of a small inner group that wants war at all costs.  And it also shows the action of dangerous, delusional madman.

Modern Russia, attacking and destroying modern Ukraine - this is an act of madness and meglomaniacal absurdity, on par with United States attacking and bombing Canada, and it's cities.   It is senseless, absurd, abusive violence, for delusional self-satisfaction.  It makes no economic or military sense.  And it risks creating a future of hatred, warfare, and poverty.

The World's bizarre failure to actively assist the Ukraine nation - with United Nations troops and peaceMAKER efforts - shows that Europe and the USA have already surrendered to Putin's New Russian Fascism.    This is crazy.  Biden and Harris are so far out of their depths, that it is almost beyond belief.

Canada and the UK should consider exiting the NATO alliance, and offering direct military assistance - troops, aircraft and heavy-weaponry - to Ukraine, right now.  We can either stop this madness now - as a UN-sanctioned "police action",  or we can wait, until our own cities are burning with radioactive fire, and try to fight when half our soldiers are coughing up blood from the radiation sickness.  (But mark this:  We will fight.)

Putin's stormtroopers and terrorists must be neutralized, and Putin must be removed and put on trial for criminal acts.   NATO is irrelevant.  A weak nation is being attacked, and it's people murdered, by an invading strong nation.  The UN was created to prevent this viciously stupid evil shit from happening.   Time to get on it.  

[ Mar. 11, 2022 ] - Russian Tanks and Armored Vehicles Trying to Attack Regions Near Kyiv - But the Russian invaders were driven back by Ukrainian artilery fire and special assault technology.  The Russian audio conversations were monitored, and there is indication that the Russian regiment commander was killed.   Airborne monitoring devices (drones) recorded part of the battle, and it was published by Ukrainian military and uploaded to Youtube.  This is *not* Hungary in 1956 and it is *not* Prague in 1968.    And Ukraine is very much, not Iraq.

https://youtu.be/2P2lRZpYBWk

The Ukrainian lands look so much like Canada, that it is disturbing.  We see gas stations, shot up and tanks burning on 6-lane highways.   It looks like our homeland.    We find this Russian invasion to be the most outrageous act of military abuse that we have ever seen.  Imagine invading formations of heavily armed tanks trying to move down the Gardiner Expressway into Toronto, perhaps coming from a United States that has collapsed into a full civil-war.  This is just insane.   Russia should withdraw all it's forces now, before this spirals further (because it will, for sure, if they do not...)

Even if Putin's invading Russian military kill everyone in Ukraine, the spirited defense that the brave Ukrainian military is showing the world, will live forever in history.    The Ukrainians are showing courage and fighting spirit equal to the Spartans at Thermopylae in 480 BC, or the early Texans at the Alamo, in 1836.

The next step is probably to take this war to the invader's homelands.   Putin wants a war, and it is perhaps time for the World, to give him one.   Rather than just not buying their blood-oil, perhaps specific efforts could be directed towards Russian oil terminals and shipping facilities, airfields, weapons factories and missile launch sites. 

World War Three has actually begun.   Chatterbots and nonsense-talk and disinformational lies will not alter the facts on the ground.  What Putin is doing, is a perfect crime against all humanity, and it must be ended, by removing Putin and his Moscow gangsters by any means possible. 

The real President of Russia is Alexi Navalny.   Or someone in the United Russia Party.  Putin is no longer the legitimate, lawful leader of Russia.   He is just a common criminal who has carried out illegal mass-murder.

[ Mar. 10, 2022 ] - "World War III has likely already begun." - This was billionaire investor Bill Ackman's comments, and our research efforts quietly confirm this fact.   This will be a war like no other in history - but make no mistake, it is a full-on war now, and it has already started.  The deliberate shelling of a hospital in Ukraine's south, shows the focused, and direct intent of the Russian Terror Campaign in Ukraine.  The World is now at war with a nuclear-armed terrorist entity.   To our complete surprise - Russia has collapsed into being a terrorist Police State on par with ISIS and Hitler's Germany of the 1940's.   

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/billionaire-investor-bill-ackman-warns-181807581.html

The Russian people are not evil - and many thousands have been arrested and imprisoned for protesting this absurd and insane military-terrorist action.  

But we believe Ackman to be correct, in his judgement.

[ Mar. 9, 2022 ] - Crossroads War Crime - Astonishing security camera footage, of Ukrainian woman in car, stopping, and be shot by a Russian tank.  The use of thermo-baric exploding rounds is interesting.  The car first explodes and then implodes - one can see that the tires get shredded.  Most interesting.   This video proves that Russian tankmen were (are) explicitly targeting civilians.   The Ukrainian land and this tragic atrocity  looks so much like Canada landscape, and the Canadian countryside, that it is difficult for us as analysts and researchers to watch.   It shows the perfect nightmare monster that is now Russia.   This will go down in history as the "Crossroads War Crime".   If the world survives the coming "nuclear winter", teachers will show this video in schools, to show how the "Great War Against Evil", began.

https://youtu.be/K8BUNF9QCog

This "Putin War" is the most curious and astonishing atrocity we have ever seen.  In 15 days, Vladimir Putin has effectively destroyed Russia's economy and it's future, as his weirdly horrific monster military have committed mass-murder in Ukraine.   And for what gain?  To prove that they are the most evil monsters on planet Earth?   It's like our World has been attacked by murdering Martians or something.  As if inside Putin is a horrific monster made from a large, crawling worm.

This is truly the stupidest thing we have ever seen in our lives.  One of our analysts says simply that:  "Putin should kill himself.   He honestly might commit suicide, as a way out of this horror show.  He could 'go to God', and ask for forgiveness for being so foolish, violent and needlessly cruel."   This of course, assumes that the man still has some shred of honour remaining in his soul, which we now doubt.

His removal will take direct effort by honourable people, as he is without any honour at all.

[ Mar. 8, 2022 ] - Ukrainian Military Says: "Our Aim is True"  Here is a video, released by Ukrainian Military, of invading Russian Mi-24 helicopter gunship, flying low to avoid detection, March 5th.   This did not save the murdering invaders on board.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mLX66ewq8Sc

Footage was imaged from a aerial reconnaissance platform.  You might need to use this link:

https://youtu.be/mLX66ewq8Sc

Ukraine needs some Mig-29's.  Let's make damn sure they get them real soon.   And maybe the French could offer some Exocet's, for use in the Black Sea.

Escalate to de-escalate.  It's the only way.   Look it up.

[ Mar. 7, 2022 ] - Never Mind NATO.  It's Now Time for the UN to Act - Imagine if a group of bandits, 20 or 25 heavily armed, that were shooting up your farm property, and had set your barn on fire, and killed your daughter, and she was lying dead in the driveway.   You call the police, and they tell you:  "No, we can't come.  But we will turn off the VISA cards of the bandits who are attacking you, since we know their names.  We can try to send you some guns and ammo, maybe also.   Bye bye."

This is what USA and NATO are doing, basically.   It's absurd and idiotic.   If the United Nations is to survive, and not be just another sad historical footnote of failure, as the worthless "League of Nations" was, then it must now act.

Forget about NATO.  A Joint Force of Australians, Canadians, Japanese and British forces - with maybe some assistance from France, Germany and Poland, can simply move directly into Ukraine, and begin assistive military operations against the invading bandit force.   If Putin launches any nuclear weapons, than that means the USA can (and must) destroy all Russian military sites - completely - with it's nuclear weapons.   Putin knows this.

If Putin orders a nuclear strike against Europe or USA or Canada or anywhere, then we will just have to suggest that this would be unwise.   Note that Hitler NEVER used poison gas - not because he was trying to be a nice guy  - simple because he KNEW if he used gas, then England would use poison gas on German cities also.  Neither side used poison gas in World War Two.

The whole "Risk of Nuclear Armageddon"  is nonsense.     Neither side will launch nuclear.

But direct action now must be taken to assist Ukraine with direct military help.

This is the explicit responsibility of EVERY nation that is a member of the United Nations.  Ukraine has been a member of the Unitied Nations since it's beginning.   What Putin's bandit terrorist army is doing is insane and unacceptable.

Economic sanctions are both insufficient response, and unwise, since they will only hurt ordinary Russians.  Putin has already used them to strengthen himself, and the power of his personal gangster elite.

This madness must be DIRECTLY stopped by direct military intervention, by United Nations forces.  This has NOTHING AT ALL to do with NATO, which can simply stand by wait and watch.  But it requires a DIRECT UNITED NATIONS response now - regardless of what the chattering Americans say.   Maybe America can help, and maybe it will not.  Their leader-people are old, and seem to be confused and timid. 

A useful thing America could do, would be to arrest and imprison Donald Trump, for the murder of that Iranian General.  

America could send a message to the World, that death-squad style murders and the use of military forces to carry out gangland-style hits, is not acceptable use of national defense forces.

We *must* now bring back rule-of-law to international relations, before it is completely lost.

The assault on Ukraine is COMPLETELY AND ABSOLUTELY UNACCEPTABLE.   Those people are us, and we are them.   Their deaths are killing us.

Time for the United Nations to take direct, military action to assist a member-State that is under direct, illegal attack by murderous bandit forces acting in a terrorist capacity to attempt to destroy a legally-elected nation government.

This MUST be opposed, by ALL MEANS THAT ARE AVAILABLE.

Just trying to turn off Russian people's VISA cards, and offering the victims some military materiel, is not a sufficient response.   Economic sanctions just make people poor.  They do NOT STOP anything.

The invading, aggressor military forces, acting in a terrorist capacity to destroy a national government, must be opposed - and destroyed using direct, military action.  No action from NATO is required.   Perhaps South Africa and Argentina and Phillipeans - and other smaller UN member States - could contribute some military forces.  Maybe Norway and Sweden could contribute forces and equipment.

The idea that we simply have to stand aside and watch the Ukrainians get their cities shelled by Russian killers, and not come to help them, is a curious form of absolute madness.  It must be corrected, or "World War Three" is *certain* to begin, as other nations emulate this Russian gangster political model.

[ Mar. 6, 2022 ] - We Are Very Close to The Point of No Return - The idiotic lies and nonsense that Russia's Putin is spouting about the "nazification" of Ukraine shows clearly that the man may have just lost his mind - and seems to be wanting to make Russia become as insane also.   What is curious, is how effective the fear campaign in Russia has become, and how successful this absurd, great fraud has been.   No one can or will risk opposing Putin publically, despite *many* Russians believing the Putin War is tragic madness.  It will reduce Russia to real poverty, and destroy a neighbouring democratic nation.    To think that any benefit of any kind will result from this, is delusional madness of the very first order.

And the curious unwillingness of the United States or NATO  to actively assist democratic Ukraine, shows how deeply unwise the current crop of leaders in much of our world currently are.   

Direct economic warfare with Russia has already begun.  It will not end until Russia is fundamentally changed and Putin is taken down, destroyed, and his insane warfare stops.

The United Nations has curiously failed - rather absolutely  - as an organization.   It appears sadly worthless, just as the old talk-shop, the "League of Nations" was.  

This is not the first crisis the UN has faced since it was created.  But this one may destroy it.  It has not been able to do anything to prevent or stop the complete invasion and murderous military subjegation of an entire European nation, by a nuclear-armed, more powerful neighbour.  This is a tragic, absolute failure.

We have now effectively reached the point, where Europe and possibly North America also, will have to "escalate in order to de-escalate".   But if the leaders of the nation-states of Europe and North America continue to stand aside - we can safely predict that two outcomes will take place:  Firstly, a real recognition will be accepted by most people, that a new crop of political people will be needed - in virtually every Western country.   And secondly, the Russia Problem will define the political calculus in the West for the next several years - perhaps decades.

Armed conflict with Russia - at some point in the future - is now an absolute certainty.   We may have to wait 10 years, or maybe only 10 months  (or ten days?) - or, it may be ten decades.   But the current situation, where a Gangster State with over 2000 tactical and strategic nuclear weapons can carry out murder campaigns of this scale, and not be directly challenged or confronted, is simply not viable.

If the Western nation-states do not confront this problem, and deal with it now, then they will have to deal with it in the future, and the costs and extent of the actions needed to neutralize a murderous, nuclear-armed Russian terror state, will be of a vastly greater scale.

Simply put - we can stop this illegal military madness now, with a firm response.  We need only destroy an abusive and murderous (and small) Russian army, on non-Russian land.   But if nothing is done to assist the Ukrainian nation, and their country falls back to being a slave-state of Russian bandits and criminal overlords, then the eventual outcome will be major war with Russia that will risk the destruction of Russian cities - and European cities as well.   This is virtually a certainty.   

The weapons of choice may not necessarily be nuclear.  They may be different - perhaps bio-weapons or virus-agents or genetically-designed insects that carry disease and infect crops or food and water supplies.   We may be looking at a new 100-years of war, that goes on without end, for decades or even centuries.

It *MUST* be illegal for a strong nation to invade a weaker, smaller nation, and try to destroy it, as Russia is now doing to Ukraine.   Otherwise, *all* nations will simply have to militarize - and to an extreme and unlimited degree.   Every nation will have to develop a real plan to deal with the "Ukraine Scenario" - murderous invasion by a powerful, nuclear-armed neighbour.

Economic sanctions are wildly insufficient.  We predict they will have essentially no effect on Putin and will likely just play into his false narative, and strengthen his ability to control and destroy any opposition to his actions.   They will not achieve any positive result, we suspect.

Russian forces *must* be removed from Ukraine, under penalty of a massive bombing campaign carried out by every civilized nation, if they do not comply.  Forget about NATO.   NATO be damned.   NATO is not important, and it is not the key here.  This is just banditry, and if it is allowed to take place, without the other democratic nations assisting Ukraine, then all nations are put at extreme risk, and civilized world-order has simply ended.    And that fact will provoke a massive, permenant retrograde change in national thinking and planning, in every nation.

If Ukraine falls, Russia does not "win".  The whole Free World simply loses, Russia becomes poor and hated for the next 100 years, and every single nation will have to begin the process of actively removing "peace-talker" weak leaders, and replace them with strong, hard, focused warrior-leaders, and will have to initiate crash programs of extreme weapons-development.   The civil order that has prevailed since the end of World War Two, will have ended, and we will begin a long cycle of endless conflict and growing, unfocused, global hatred.

If you doubt this - just watch and see what happens.

It would be better to risk escalation (escalate to de-escalate) now, by smashing Russian invading forces in Ukraine, than wait until we have to take out Russian cities and harbours and factories, with massive bombing campaigns ( as was needed in World War Two, for example).

If the world allows Russia to succeed in it's Ukraine terror campaign, un-opposed by anyone but Ukrainian folks, then that is a much bigger escalation, which will likely destroy all Europe eventually - and perhaps even North America.

[ Mar. 5, 2022 ] - Open-Source War - It is pretty much impossible now to keep ugly, dangerous secrets.  And if your war or business model requires that a group of people keep a big secret, you will likely find your plans have high likelyhood of - if not failure -  then veering off rapidly into wildly unpredictable directions & results.

FD: We went long in the AM on Friday, because our best model went from down to flatline.  WHen that happens, it often means a hard (and fast) reversal.  We saw a tiny bit of that yesterday, and ended - with positions on (all in) and comfortably in the black. 

Very strange - and a tad unexpected, for me the human.  I acquired something from Troy, just to climb another learning curve.  Long discussions with a fellow from a firm close to the Centre, here in our northern wildland.  Still can't confirm if we are using the plasma things, but wow, it is getting weird.  If Putin attacks any NATO-land countries, we will automatically, based on treaty obligations, be at full-on war with the Russian Federation.   No guff.  And then - do we fry their aircraft?  If their military stuff all just stops working - do they go ape-shit, and just blindly launch? 

Our medical research suggests Putin has been using anabolic steroids for maybe over 30 years, and also probably HGH (human growth hormone), as well as some other newer med-tech, which can have seriously unclear long-term side-effects.   The side-effect every steriod-use case study seems to suggest, is the "roid-rage" phenomenon, and doctor's already caution that the hardcore boost to muscle-building due to testosterone-replacement, explicitly increases a willingness to take outsized risks, and also increases male aggressive behaviour.  

A lot of the weird, over-the-top behaviour seems to be explainable by chemical-induced action, combined with the natural psychological and physical effects of male aging process.  (Putin was born in 1952, and will soon turn 70 years old.)   All guys get a bit weird at this age - more sensitive and also more easy to anger.   Putin has no one anywhere to tell him he is being insanely self-destructive, like an out-of-control medieval king, in so many ways.  He has no wife, and no friends to tell him he is killing the future of Russia.

Our policy people perhaps want to be careful not to assume that economic sanctions will have much effect.   As we already cautioned - and has now been demonstrated by the explicit criminalization of free-speech in Russia - he can and will turn the sanctions into simple strategies that will allow him to assert explicit (and crazy dangerous) personal control of the actions of the Russian State.    We consider this to be a very bad outcome and situation.

The arrest and imprisonment - on bogus, trumped-up charges - of Alexi Navalny, should have warned us all that Russia was already wildly off the rails of rational and fair, legal procedure.   And all the things that many Putin critics have asserted, have been confirmed.

It would be best if the Russian military simply arrested him, and handed him over to the European Court of Justice, for trial for using the Russian Defense Forces for personal, political purposes.

The policy advisors and leaders of the Free World should communicate this idea, and suggest that if this action were taken, the sanctions that have been applied could be quickly lifted, and economic assistance would be given to both sides to repair the tragic damage that has been done.

The Free World should also communicate that failure to address the Putin Problem, risks serious global warfare, and unlimited, **automatic** military escalation, which soon each side will find difficult to control.  We know this, as this is what happened in both World War One and World War Two.   After major illegal actions & invasions took place, the whole world was **automatically** and irreversably at war.

And each time, many millions of lives were lost - and also purposefully destroyed.

It would be ***very wrong*** to interpret the Free World's lack of immediate action, as a characteristic of weakness.   We have confirmed (it turns out) that this restraint is a direct result of our common knowledge of just how automatic (and destructive), a modern global war, is certain to be.

Russia needs to withdraw from Ukraine, and they need to do it now.  They are playing Russian Roulette with the future of the whole world, and the revolver's hammer is going to drop on that chamber with the live round in it, very soon, if they keep repeatedly pulling the trigger like they are now doing.

[ Mar. 4, 2022 ] - We Really Need to Act Here.  Others Agree.

Action - direct action to assist Ukraine is indicated.  We are already running a global war now.  Ukraine is the current front lines.  Let's recognize this clearly, and not be foolish.  This is clear and true:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1499442168699760643.html

The NATO forces have stood aside - but that does not mean that Europe and other nations have to.  Look at a USA 100-dollar bill.  That guy there - Ben Franklin - what did he do that was most important?  He convinced France to help small, weak USA Colony fight for it's freedom.   A fight for freedom and democracy is the requirement of every democratic, free nation.

Of course NATO officially has to say no, we are not helping:

https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/nato-reject-ukraine-no-fly/2022/03/04/id/1059637/

But that does not mean the Free World has to limit it's actions to economic action.

Even Canada could send a few CF-118's, and call Putin's bluff.The current approach, where the world stands by and offers no help - is unwise.  History teaches this, very clearly.

Update-B: Just when you thought it might not get worse, of course, it does. Ukraine's largest (and Europe's largest) nuclear plant has been attacked by Russian invaders, and is burning.  (8:55 pm, Eastern Standard Time)

Putin is quite possibly a drug-damaged madman.   If the reactor explodes due to a meltdown, or a super-critical event or a Fukushima hydrogen/oxygen fireball explosion - radioactive debris and dusty fallout may drift over Europe - again.   Another Russian gift to Europe?

Are you Euro-folks going do anything now, perhaps? Perhaps now it is time to act?   Maybe it's time to come to the defense of Ukraine, call Putin's madman's bluff, and neutralize the Russian invaders?  Or will you live forever hostage to the actions of a nuclear-armed drug abuser?   

Less talk.  More action needed, perhaps.  We liked Moscow, and St. Petersburg.  There are these lovely Monet paintings at the Hermitage.   It would be a shame if those lovely Russian cities were destroyed. 

The key to avoiding bad war outcomes, is to be strong, not to be weak.  Oppose Russian crazy-bad actions now, and encourage regime-change in Russia, and we can maybe restore peace and sanity.  But sit and do nothing, and this insane ball-of-foolish-destruction will just start rolling downhill faster.   

---

Update-A:  More research - we believe Putin is on serious levels of anabolic steroids, and what we may be seeing has the popular term: "roid rage".    These insane assertions of "genocide" against ethnic Russian speakers is perhaps coming from this drug-related mental breakdown.   There is simply no evidence of Ukraine attacking ethnic Russian speakers.  It just appears to be a weird, made-up pretext.   This is just nuts.   Completely bonkers.  Putin has gone crazy.

---

A No-Fly zone must be established over Ukraine - RIGHT NOW.

This is not just our view, as analysts and scientists - this is also the view of wise people who know what they are doing.  If the United States does not assist in this effort, it has failed Europe,and this will be a serious error.

https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/wesley-clark-putin-ukraine-russia/2022/03/03/id/1059426/

There is time for talk, and a time for action.   Putin must be confronted, and if he is not, he will continue to murder.   This Ukraine Invasion is illegal.  It is the reason that the United Nations and NATO exist - to counter this kind of insane threat.  If Putin launches a nuclear weapon, then we simply must respond.

But Russia's nuclear arsenal must not be used to hold the World hostage to the grim dictates of a madman.

The time for action is NOW.  If USA will not assist, then it falls to UK, France and Germany to act as one single entity, and do the job.

Putin is reportedly crafting a plan to shell his own towns in the border with Ukraine, and use this as a pretext to significantly escalate the war.  US defense intelligence knows this, and now so does everyone else.  

You cannot keep secrets anymore, and you cannot lie like Lavrov and Putin do, and expect to be believed.

The Putin War in Ukraine is our war.   It must be fought successfully.  Now.

People who know about this in detail, say the same things as we do.

Economics - as of March 4th, 2022:

 ************      **** Full Disclosure ****

We have five different models, and they are all pointing down.  Seriously.   We liquidated positions in our trading portfolio. 

We suggest that one review the comments by Mohamed El-Erian, a fellow who guided us all wisely thru the 2008 USA Housing-Bubble/Financial Crisis.  His short note was found on the Bloombergquint site.  He makes a very good series of points.  He says the market cannot escape this Putin War in Ukraine, and we believe he is correct.   The current bullish frisky action of the market, is not healthy, and we believe it bodes badly for the future.

https://www.bloombergquint.com/gadfly/russia-invasion-of-ukraine-global-markets-and-economy-can-t-escape

If Ukraine is defeated, then Putin will be even more dangerous than he is now.

This Russian criminal action must be stopped now, by whatever means are necessary.

Failure to act with focus and clarity, will cost the World it's future peace and security.   Just study history of Europe, if you doubt this basic truth.

****************

Global Credit Events Possible:

We note the market seems to be wildly under-estimating the costs of the expected path of events here, and the non-quantifiable risks associated with the transition down this (most probable) possible path.

Many market participants perhaps feel they are adequately provisioned for what lies ahead.  But we are entering a world now, where roughly 1/5th of the planet has just been financially vapourized already.   All those folks that think they have CDS's and swaptions and various types of puts and such, which are going to pay-off in the case of various credit-events, (and payment-failure events) may find that they simply will not get paid.

And we have *already* played the game of ramping up the USA money supply (the global reserve currency) to many ten's of trillions of newly minted dollars, to address the Covid-19 pandemic.

What we are now programmed for is a "crash-flation" scenario, the likes of which have never really been seen.   We note there is a real possibility of wildly rising prices of some critical commodities, the collapse of demand in whole economic sectors, and payment-linkage and other credit-connected lockups occuring.  

This is not just a "big costs" scenario, this is the technical result of losing a very large chunk of the planetary economy - in a very sudden and complete way.   Russia was actually doing rather well, and things were looking pretty good.   Real wealth was being created and distributed out over their whole economy, and direct financial and trading linkages were global, and were working well.   All this is now stopped.  It's gone.   And until Putin is either removed, or he commits suicide or something like that (which we view as very unlikely), the Russian economy is now basically on Mars.   It's just been removed.

Anyone doing any business at all, with Russia, is simply not likely to get paid, unless they want to take bitcoin or physical gold or worthless Rubles, as their payment.  This sanctioned economy is off-limits, and this is simply a fact.  There is not enough money to be made, buying anything from, or selling anything to, Russia now, to justify the extreme risk of not being paid, that one would be taking on.

Look at a map of the Globe.   Russia is simply *gone* -  an actual zombie-financial entity that just died, yet still keeps trying to stagger along, howling weird nonsense.

Except this big financial zombie has nuclear weapons, and the top hairless howling zombie has threatened to use them.    This is where we are right now.

Yet the market is pretending this is not actually a problem.

We are - certain - that the market has not done an adequate job of discounting this risk.

And again, if one inspects the historical record, one sees that this is not an uncommon phenomenon.   The world gets bad leaders, the nations do very bad things, and everyone goes crazy.  The French Revolution - and the rise of Napolean is one example.  So is Hitler's rise in Germany, and Stalin's rise in Russia, and also Mao's "Cultural Revolution", in whch China destroyed the lives of an entire generation of it's young men and women.

No-one thinks the madness and the war will really happen, until the bombs start falling, buildings start burning, and people in the house next door are lying out on the street in little bloody pieces, after their house was hit.  Or have been dragged away by Gestapo blackshirts to be killed in Death Camps.  Or have been arrested by Stalin's KGB to become an "unperson" and die in a gulag.   Or hung in the "jet-plane" position by Mao's "Red Guard" monsters, and beaten to death with bamboo sticks.   Humans are able to do great harm to their own people.  This is - sadly - how human society often operates.

And by that point - with the markets closed - it is usually already too late to re-position one's trades.

We believe we found the source of Vladimir Putin's madness. He was a KGB operative when young, and worked in Germany, this we know. The KGB and the MfS was very successful at hacking and hurting any group or persons that were seen to *threaten* the GDR "Socialist" gulag-state. East-Germany was essentially a giant prison, lets be clear about this. I saw it first hand, at this timeframe. It was almost beyond human belief, that something so insane could actually exist. In order for this huge prison to exist and operate, it needed a significant and very professional group of spys and social-control operatives, to keep all free thought and expression surpressed. The KGB and the MfS were very successful at doing this, and the Mitrokhan Archive describes - in some detail - exactly how this was done, right down to very organizational details. It is amazingly educational reading. The KGB and the MfS were sophisticated, impressive machines of terror and control.

But they had - according to the detailed notes from the Mitrokhan Archive, which we believe to be accurate - one notable failure. They were quite unable to infiltrate the Ukrainian Nationalist Organization. They wrote reports about agents who tried to do this, but buried deep in notes related to Russian-German technical "tradecraft" and other terms (literally a dictionary of terms) - we found this little gem: The KGB and MfS had no success at this.

We suspect that, Putin, a high-intelligence perfectionist, is obsessed with defeating Ukrainian Nationalism, given this failure from his first real job. We all remember our first efforts - and it is the *failures* that haunt our memories, as we age and remember them.

We suspect this early failure, has become an "idée fixe" for Vladimir Putin, and that he is determined to crush Ukrainian Nationalism at all costs, because he sees it as a personal failure. This makes him both very ill, and very dangerous.

See: https://www.britannica.com/art/idee-fixe

And: https://digitalarchive.wilsoncenter.org/document/112824

This also explains Putin's curious conflation of "Nazi-ism" and the honest, obvious desire Ukrainians have for national self-determination. For Putin's now badly warped mind, "Nazi-ism" and "Ukrainian Nationalism" are the same thing, as both were direct targets of KGB & MfS operatives. Each were "enemies of Socialism". This offers explaination how Putin can make the obviously insane assertion, that a Jewish President Zelenskiy of Ukraine is somehow a "Nazi".

We believe there is a high probability that Putin is in the intermediate stages of a senile dementia, exacerbated by long use of anabolic steroids, and is determined to correct the embarrassing failures of his youthful work, even if it means the destruction of the impressive Russian economic progress, and possibly the Russian State itself.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is a criminal act, on par with the worst actions of Hitler and Stalin.

The military machinery of the nations of this World, should be committed immediately to neutralize this illegal aggression, as it both violates Ukrainian sovereignty, and also emboldens an extremely dangerous madman.

We must not wait. Call it a: "police action". There is critical work needed, right now.

A Destroyed Russian rocket-launcher, which we think is a "BM-21", a 40-tube platform for 122mm rockets. Two dead invaders can be seen, their young lives cut short by Putin's idiotic, criminal invasion of Ukraine. This image from Kharkiv, Feb. 25, 2022. Photo is credited to: Maksim Levin.

These BM-21 launchers are mounted on Ural-375 6x6 trucks, and can fire up to 40 high-explosive rockets within 30 seconds. They are an effective, lethal, low-tech weapon of mass-murder, especially when used against civilian populations. Vladimir Putin is a war criminal of the most extreme. The Ukrainian Military is fighting hard, and with no direct military help from any other nation, to defend it's Democracy. They deserve our support and assistance.

REMOVE RUSSIA FROM THE SWIFT FINANCIAL SYSTEM NOW! EMBARGO ALL IT'S FUNDS, BLOCKADE ALL IT'S PORTS.

It is Vladimir Putin and his gangster elite that is making this ugly war on Ukrainian and European Democracy.

Putin is now as dangerous as Hitler was, and he must be neutralized immediately. No business with ANY Russian entities should be allowed, by anyone on this planet. This murder vehicle, and these dead Russian boys whose lives were wasted on this stupid, cruel insane assault against a lightly armed neighbouring democratic nation, are the true face of Vladimir Putin's horrific Great Lie.

"Fuck You, Russian warship!" Words that will go down in history, and echo for the next 1000 years...

I have not been a fan of our Prime Minister Trudeau, but when a man does the right thing, he should be recognized for it. This is a good action, and is not just a gesture.

Good weapons, and human courage is sometimes all it takes, to win the battle. It is good to see Canada step up, and take a stand. It is very good, indeed.

I hope these weapons can be used to neutralize many of the criminal invaders, and allow some parts of Ukraine to remain strong and free. Remember: Strong goes with Free. There is no such thing, as "Weak and Free", understand?

(I am wondering if we sent the Ukrainians any of those wild (and supposedly secret) particle-beam weapons? They're supposed to be oh-so-secret, but the chit-chat is that we got the crazy things to actually work. And we keep hearing these funny rumors that they actually work quite well. The rumors of course, could all be bogus. Sounds too much like "Ghostbusters" to me... wearing a portable cyclotron on your back, maybe? Crazy idea. But if they work, and can be linked to optical sensors (ie. no radar signature), then one could just clear the sky of aircraft, drones, and maybe even incoming missles? Like that old video-game: "Missile Command." I remember the orders that the player received at the beginning of each game: "Defend Cities." All good orders are short, sharp and clear. It would appear that this is what the Ukrainians are now trying to do. The SPQR menu item has info on the Laser-based anti-aircraft system, but the particle-beam thing is supposed to work a lot better. Raytheon Laser system: http://www.gemesyscanada.com/442273167 )

We really should be blockading all Russian ports-of-entry, and also we should TURN OFF ALL THEIR ACCESS TO SWIFT - the financial money-transfer system. Biden was too weak take this correct action. And we must de-orbit the ISS. It's mission is over anyway.

Maybe next week...

Also, I wonder how much food, the invading Russian soldiers brought with themselves? We understand that Kyiv residents were advised to put rat-poison into various foodstuffs that they left in their empty apartments, if they left town. I wonder if they really did that?

Spring is Coming. There will be storms.

Putin's military has invaded Ukraine. This is a very bad decision by a very bad man. Putin must be removed, and it is appropriate that military support be offered to the Ukraine Government, and it's people.

Putin has proven to be a liar, a fraudster and a thug, on par with Hitler of the 1930's. This is unfortunate. If this ugly military assault succeeds, Xi will probably try to move against Taiwan.

We are not confident that any meaningful action will be taken by American or European Governments, as they have shown a tragic willingness to appease the various Russian aggressions, when ever these have happened in the past.

The citizens of the Free World will have to decide where and when we will stand up to the liars, murderers and abusive totalitarian regimes that threaten our World.

History has shown it is better to stand up to thugs and political gangsters early on, rather than wait for them to become established and dominant.

It is better to destroy criminally abusive invading armies, rather than wait, and have to destroy cities and nations.

It seems that History has not ended. It appears that the choices we made, the conflicts we endured, and the victories that were achieved at such great costs - all these will have to be all undertaken and endured again, otherwise the forces of darkness and repression will determine and define the future. If that happens, the World will face endless war and tragic, abusiive violence by criminals in control of governments.

If we are to have a future for Freedom and Democracy, then it has becomes clear: We shall have to fight for it.

Each citizen in the Free World, will have to decide what role he or she will play, and how the dark forces of abuse, violence and political gangsterism will be defeated.

If we are to live in Freedom, and with Truth and Justice as our companions, then we have no other choice possible.

We must select strong, honest and truthful people as our own leaders. They must be willing and able to unify our own Free Democratic people, support our allies, and use our military power against our enemies - not our own people.

We need to stand united, and defiant against the darkness and criminal assault that totalitarian regimes and dishonest political gangsters represent.

The Ukraine invasion shows what happens, when criminal gangsters like Putin are appeased by the weak, dishonest leaders in our own lands.

The Time for Change has now arrived. Dark forces now threaten the whole world. Each person will have to decide which side he will be on.

We urge each to choose the path of Freedom, Truth and Justice. The forces of darkness, repression and cruelty can be crushed. We know this, because we have seen it done - by our parents and our grandparents.

The nations of the Free World fought for Freedom and Democracy and Justice in the past. It seems we must do this again, in order to secure the future.

Notes of Note - 2021-2022

Vladimir Putin is not just a cruel & dishonest fraudster, he is also an Osama Bin Laden-style air terrorist. This image shows an unarmed Ukrainian Antonov Transport aircraft, that was shot down by hostile Russian military invaders on the first day of the Ukrainian Invasion. A reward should be offered for Putin's capture, as was offered for Bin Laden's.

If serious and powerful weapons must be used, then so be it. Putin is now a profound threat to world security, and he must be neutralized.

[ Mar. 2nd, 2022 ] - NATO must "Put on it's Big Boy Pants and fight": Retired General Russel Honoré.  We Agree.

The NATO organization was formed to deal with exactly what is happening.  Why the hell is Ukraine having to fight this murderous military assault against it's entire nation, without any direct military help from the organization that was formed and funded explicitly to deal with exactly this kind of brutal, bloodthirsty aggression?

https://www.newsmax.com/us/russel-honore-nato-nuclear-deterrent-military/2022/02/28/id/1058950/

This is insane.  The sactions mostly will hurt ordinary Russian citizens, and make them suffer and fill them with hate.  This is probably Putin's plan.   He thinks he is clever.   He will assume full, Hitler-style control in Russia (he already has now), and he will then use his nuclear weapons against the West.  

Why is NATO - and the rest of Europe - not engaging this perfect evil situation RIGHT NOW?  Biden of USA and the American Democrats are just pathetic.   The NATO alliance was specifically crafted to deal with this kind of murderous, illegal Russian madness - AND THE TIME TO STOP THIS ASSULT IS NOW, and not wait until this fool's nightmare is larger and even more completely insane and out of control.

Putin wants this current outcome, we have determined.   He wants to erase the internal threat of 100,000 young, healthy Russian boys - by getting them killed.

He WANTS a collapsed and broken Russia - so he will be able to exercise complete, military authority over the whole damaged country - and then turn *all* it's production to military goods, and have justification for much greater escalation.

Biden and European powers are being completely misled, and are wildly missing the very clear and extreme threat that Putin has become.  

Putin WANTS to have his current small army crushed and defeated in Ukraine, and he wants Russia bloodied and broken, so he can have complete control over it, and use the new "State of Emergency" to completely crush and kill anyone or any group that opposes his control.  And then build a BIG army.

What exactly is wrong with Western military and defense analysts that they do not grasp this?

If Vladimir Putin really wants to have his current army crushed and destroyed in Ukraine - so he can then militarize fully & attack Europe and take back what he feels - in his twisted world view - are the states and lands that Russia lost when the Soviet Union broke up into free, democratic states, then we are only at the very beginning of this crisis.

We've just realized that this might REALLY be a scenario Putin wanted -  the defeat and destruction of a violent crop of young Russian men - as they are the ones who were most likely to take to the streets to oppose his brutal dominiation & militarization of Russia.

We should not be putting sanctions on Russia, without explaining EXACTLY to the Russian people how they can have the sanctions REMOVED, and restore prosperity and sanity into their lives.   We might be giving this crazy new 'Ivan the Terrible" exactly the scenario that he wants, if we do not see that Putin and his inner circle of elite of gangsters is the true enemy - not all the Russian young adults.

We are pretty sure about this.   Biden is a lightweight, and the US military and the entire NATO alliance is sitting on it's arse, playing with itself, while a 40-million person, European democracy is being blasted by insane Russian bombing.   This must be made to stop.

General Russel Honoré is completely correct.  NATO needs to act NOW, and send major troops - European Troops, not American soldiers - into Ukraine in defense of that nation - and also communicate that Russian troops in Ukraine should TURN AROUND and JOIN NATO troops, and join in an joint military assault on where-ever Vladimir Putin is hiding.

The world needs to make it clear that Putin and his Gang are the enemy here.   We do not want a broken, defeated and crushed Russia.  We want simply an arrested Vladimir Putin.   Russia can be restored to health - if the sickness of Vladimir Putin is removed, like the cancer it has become.

All the troops in Poland and the Baltic States should move into Belarus - and indicate that they are taking action to install the honestly elected government in that nation, and are seeking only the arrest and detention of Lukashenko, for war crimes.   They should ask for the direct assistance of the Belarusian population - and the appeal should be made by the Belarusian "Government in Exile".

There is a real clear reason why Putin destroyed the Kyiv TV transmitter tower.  He lives by the lie and by his actions of terror.  He has nothing else to offer now, and once folks are told this truth, we will have a real chance at regime-change in Russia - and an end to this insane war.

The future-critical war that NATO was built for, has now begun, and it is the most important task in the world - right now - that Russian military aggression be stopped, and that Putin be located and arrested for is crimes.

Russians should be told that ALL SANCTIONS WILL BE LIFTED once Putin is arrested, and the War in Ukraine is ended.   

This current approach is not wise.  The economic sanctions to "weaken" Russia will simply play directly into Putin's hand, and put him into a stronger position of military authority, unless Russians understand that a return to sanity is still possible, if the top gangster is removed.

Two things must happen:   NATO must act, and Russians must be made to understand that there will be GREAT ECONOMIC BENEFIT if and when, Putin and his inner gang of criminals, are taken down.   The USA, England, Canada and Europe should send this message out CLEARLY.

And in Ukraine, each Russian lad that drops his weapons and surrenders, should be assured of fair treatment, and not abused.  Each Ukrainian soldier should be told he will be given land, serious money and a good post-war life, if he can defeat the enemy.

But mostly - European forces - call them what you will - should simply come to the defense of Ukraine - and THEY SHOULD DO IT NOW, and make it clear that the enemy is PUTIN and not Russia itself.  And this goes also for Belarus.

Lukashenko and Putin will otherwise stand as evil little dictators, on their mountains of dead citizens, and declare themselves to be "War Leaders", and half of the World will be thrown back into slavery and failure and pain - all of which is unnecessary.

Get your pants on, NATO!  The bells are ringing.   It's now time for action - not weak words from old men who can only read speeches.  And limitless sanctions only hurt the Russian people, and will make cruel Vladimir Putin into a worse military-enabled monster than he already is now.

https://www.newsmax.com/us/russel-honore-nato-nuclear-deterrent-military/2022/02/28/id/1058950/ 

[ Mar. 1st, 2022 ] - Bipolar World Again- Putin truly is insane - he rants about Ukraine being "nazified" - except the Zelenskiy, the courageous leader of Ukraine that Putin's terrorist army is trying to kill - is Jewish!   Putin is a madman, and apparently, an honest-to-god hitler-clone.   The European Democracies need to send direct military support - at least some air-cover - to Ukraine right now.  A good action would be destroy the many-mile long invasion convoy north of Kyiv.

It would also be a very good time for forces to move against other political criminal entities - as Russia's forces are committed to the Ukraine occupation attempt.   A small, rapid movement into Belarus from Poland and the Baltic states, would likely be successful.  It could be short, sharp and fast, and would catch Lukashenko's army from the backside - and deliver the necessary corrective action.  The honest folks who actually won the elections in Belarus, could then take their rightful place as the local government.  

We have returned to the tragic, bipolar world of long ago - a world divided between the good-guys and the bad-guys.   This is very, very sad for folks in Russia, and the future of Russia.  And the fear is that Putin WANTS it this way - by degrading the Russian economy, he can assume absolute power, and by arrangeing for a large segment of Russia's young men to be killed, he can ensure no large public demostrations or riots can be organize by angry youth, to topple him.

He is at war with his own nation, as much as he is at war with Ukrainian people.  It is just insane - yet it will benefit his sense of control and feed his desire for absolute power.

So, we are back to the 1950's - a world of nuclear-armed standoff, with a very dangerous, and heavily-militarized Russia.   Except that we are now going to see some serious inflation - yet it will be possible for Europe and North American market-makers and governments, to blame the inflation on the war-action, because that will truly be the source of much of it now.

Stocks are probably the best place to have assets, if an inflation is allowed to continue - at least for the next six to twelve months, as the real hard-core inflation gets established.

It would be good to see Germany fully militarize again.  The German leader, Olaf Scholz, has realized that Russia cannot be trusted to act rationally, while Putin remains in control of that country, and has completely (and very wisely) reversed German neutrality.  Weapons and assistance are actively being given to the Ukrainian government under seige.   Scholz also realizes that a massive military expenditure increase is needed (over $100 billion USD), and will also probably have to reverse the decision to shut-down German nuclear reactors.    Probably the Germans will need to build NEW nuclear reactors, if they want to move away from a gas-burning economy, to one that runs on electricity.   You cannot power an industrial nation with wind-generators and solar power - it is just not enough, and not reliable. 

So, we will have a massive build-up in military and nuclear technology - and probably a strong stock market, as the West begins the process to also convert itself to a war-stimulated economy. 

Eventually, we will have to go to war with Putin's forces, yet at the same time, try to protect and help the Russian people, like we did in 1998.

This will take money and effort and hard decisions will have to be made.  North America - and Europe - will have to militarize, and develop plans to counter and defeat the Russian Threat.  

It's like a bad copy of a Le Carre novel - with Karla having actually siezed control of Russia, becoming Covid-19 infected, having a mental breakdown, and starting World War Three.

Really - the wise thing to do, would be fully support Ukraine, destroy the Russian military, and then have the UN oversee honest elections in Russia.  But Old Man Biden is not going to do that, and Olaf Scholz has to first spend $100 billion upgrading his military.  It would be good to see a meeting of Macron of France, Boris Johnson of the UK and Scholz of Germany - let Biden stay home and play with his wokey-wonky types.  They should have the meeting in Warsaw, and invite the Polish leaders also.

Europe has a problem.  Mobilization needs to be considered.    Putin *really* wants a war with Europe - we know, because he has already started one - and perhaps it is possible to give him one that is not so one-sided.   If he launches nuclear weapons, then we can solve the Russia Threat problem right away, in just a few minutes.   And he knows that.

What is curious, is that the coming inflation, and the massive military build-up that Western nations will now be undertaking, will actually boost the Western markets substantially.

Crazy times - but lets see if we can fast-foward this whole process, to the scene where Putin shoots himself in his bunker.

[ Feb. 28, 2022 ] - Vladimir Putin is a War Criminal - and the Enemy of the Future. - There can be no greater crime than this crime that Vladimir Putin is now guilty of - the attempted mass-murder of an entire nation.   Intelligence reports (which we belive to be accurate) suggest his is "willing" to lose 50,000 Russian troops - young men who will be sacrificed to Putin's bloated, horrific ego.    This is madness - but it is the madness of Adolf Hitler or "Vlad the Impaler" of old Hungary, or of terrorists like Osama Bin Laden.  Mass-murder becomes simply a form of political calculus.  Let's be clear:  By arranging for 50,000 or more young, healthy Russian lads to be killed, he removes the possibility of 50,000 young, healthy protesters, knocking him off his bloody throne.

The man's evil actions actually are commonplace, in the history of our sad world.   And it is this simple fact, that makes him and his gangster elite, the most dangerous men on Earth right now.  

It is tragic to see the American President play with himself, as he plays silly, race-based games with the American legal system.   No on cares - except a lunatic-fringe of American Leftists - what colour the skin is of a top, supreme-court judge.   But Biden focuses on this foolish exercise (as does the American left-leaning media), as the beginning of World War Three is slowly being put into place and magnified. 

Europe itself is under direct military attack from Russia.  This is the truth of things.

BP, the big UK energy company, has just abandoned - written off as a total loss - it's 20% ownership stake in Rosneft, the largest Russian oil company.   This is a massive 25 billion US dollar loss for BP shareholders - a huge amount of honest, private wealth that has just been vapourized (and stolen, by the Russian company, basically - so you see why the Oligarchs can support the Putin mass-murder exercise in Ukraine.  They think they are being clever.

But Ukraine is being killed by invading terrorists.

And the world stands by, with it's hands in it's pockets, and does so very little to help them.

Unless Putin is taken down - by a missile strike, or by a popular uprising, or by a co-ordinated Russian internal police-action (it matters not how it is done), then there will certainly be an expansion of this ugly conflict.

This abusive and horrific assault of the entire Ukrainian people, should be considered as a full-on "first-strike", and all weapons - all weapons of all kinds - should be targeted at Russia, and a 24-hour time limit given for Putin to stand down, otherwise be neutralized.

The tragic weakness (and "wokeness") of Joe Biden and his fiddling-while-Rome-burns actions and race-based game-playing, will cost the entire Free World it's future.

Ukraine should immediately be granted EU and NATO membership, and all the military forces of the Free World should be directed at Russia if it does not withdraw it's forces within 24 hours.

Putin is a coward and commonplace gangster-style "Liar Leader" .   These types appear again and again, and history has proven that nothing they say can be trusted, and only direct military action against them, can be effective.  These types must be neutralized because of the horrific risks they represent.  

The actions of "Liar Leaders" like Vladimir Putin don't just kill nations and murder innocent children - their actions explicitly kill the future for the whole world.

Vladimir Putin is the enemy of all mankind.   Really.

[ Feb. 27, 2022 ] - Appeasement & the Political Suicide of Donald Trump - Wow.  We are seeing madness we never thought we would see.  Donald Trump has called America "Stupid", and has praised Putin as "Savvy" at a meeting of "conservative" types in USA. 

What exactly are American conservatives trying to conserve?  Foolishness?  Madness?   It boggles the mind, really.   Trump appears to have commited political suicide.  If Mitt Romney or some sane person, is not chosen to be the Republican candidate, then the Democrats will be able to field a deaf, dumb, blind, crippled and crazy old dead guy (maybe they will??), and still get him elected.   No one of any integrity or honour or even basic intelligence or sanity, could support Putin.  Putin is a vicious, dishonest "zalupa"  (just google it...)

So, Trump is now toast.  Curiouser and curiouser... world going mad, it seems.

Here is a note about "Appeasement".  We are very likely now seeing the beginnings of World War Three (maybe even "World War Zee", given all those Russian tanks with "Z" on their sides...)

Appeasement:

History of Appeasement and the Danger of Liar-Leaders
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Appeasement reached its climax in September 1938 with the Munich Agreement. Chamberlain hoped to avoid a war over Czechoslovakia by conceding to Adolf Hitler’s demands. The Agreement allowed Nazi Germany to annex the Sudetenland, the German-speaking parts of Czechoslovakia.
 
Chamberlain promised it would bring “peace in our time”, but Churchill scolded him for “throwing a small state to the wolves” in exchange for a promise of peace.
 
Speaking after Chamberlain signed the Munich Agreement, Winston Churchill said: “You were given the choice between war and dishonour. You chose dishonour and you will have war.”
 
A year later, on 1 September 1939, Hitler broke his promise and launched the invasion of Poland. Peace was shattered. By 3 September 1939, Britain was once again at war with Germany. Chamberlain declared war against Hitler, but during the next eight months, showed himself to be ill equipped for the daunting task of saving Europe from Nazi conquest.
 
After British forces failed to prevent the German occupation of Norway in April 1940, Chamberlain lost the support of many members of his Conservative Party. By May 1940, the Allies were losing, and on 10 May 1940, Hitler invaded Holland, Belgium, and the Netherlands.
 
The same day, Chamberlain formally lost the confidence of the House of Commons, so he resigned. In the face of the Nazis’ relentless march across Europe, Chamberlain bowed to pressure and resigned as Prime Minister. When Lord Halifax – the man fancied to assume the Premiership – refused the role, Churchill was the only credible alternative to lead.
 
What happened next?
 
The commonly accepted version of events states that Lord Halifax, Chamberlain’s original choice of successor, turned down the post of Prime Minister because he believed he could not govern effectively as a member of the House of Lords instead of the House of Commons.
 
Typically the Prime Minister doesn’t advise the King on the former’s successor, but Chamberlain wanted someone who would command the support of all three major parties in the House of Commons. A meeting between Chamberlain, Halifax, Churchill and David Margesson, the government Chief Whip, led to the recommendation of Churchill, and, as constitutional monarch, George VI asked Churchill to be prime minister. Churchill’s first act was to write to Chamberlain to thank him for his support.
 
Had WW2 ended before May 1940 as many had hoped, history would now know Churchill as an average First Lord with an embarrassing share of responsibility for the failures of the Norwegian campaign. But by a strange turn of history, this failure led to the increased unpopularity of Chamberlain and gave Churchill his big chance. 
 
(BBC content, from TV show: "History Revealed.")
 
The BBC is a lefty media group, of course.  They fail to finish this sentance, which should end with:  " and he proved to be the most powerful, effective and honourable leader that England and the United Kingdom has ever had."   Nor do they mention the *complete* and total defeat of the British Army "Expeditionary Force" in Europe, and it's evacuation at Dunkirk.
 
Yet Churchill absolutely refused to negotiate with Hitler, because he knew the man to be evil and dishonest.  The UK stood alone, with Canada's direct help of course, until the Americans engineered the bombing of Pearl Harbour ( by blockading Japan and cutting off it's food and oil supplies ) and thus entering the World War.  The USA became the "arsenal for Democracy", and because it's finances were in good shape (it had very little government debt), it was able to debt-finance a massive war-effort - AND develop the atomic bomb, which ended the war, and saved the Free World.  
 
We need to remember the really important stuff, that actually worked.   It was Churchill who spoke honestly, and stood with courage, committing England to fight, even when it's army had been defeated and expelled from Europe, and France had surrendered to Hitler.   Churchill is one of the great men of history, not some accidental political tourist, as this BBC article insinuates.  He was also an honourable, and true Conservative.
 
----
MCL's Current note:
 
We are now in a unique and ugly situation again, where US President Biden is looking like he is  appeasing Russia, and its criminal leader, Vladimir Putin, after Putin ordered an unprovoked invasion, using all military means, against neighbouring Ukraine, a non-nuclear Democratic European state, with a small regular military of roughly 6000 men.   Biden has frozen some Russian assets, and closed off trade finance with Russian banks, but nothing more.
 
The invading Russian forces are estimated at 170,000 soldiers.   What is impressive, is the quality of the fight that the small, ill-equiped Ukrainian Military is putting up, and the loyalty and solidarity it is demonstrating to the world.   Biden of USA, and the weak, self-interested European "leaders" - mostly women or career civil-service types, initially only imposed some limited sanctions on a few Russian banks.  (This just changed today, as Germany has committed to send anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles to Ukraine defense forces.)
 
So, Putin is emboldened, and is pressing forward with a brutal and ugly war, designed to capture and decapitate the current Ukraine government.  It is an entire affair which reeks of Nazi history, with Putin playing the part of Hitler, making absurdly false accusations, creating phony pretexts, and clearly hoping to extinguish Ukraine as a nation.   It is quite astonishing, to see the sad weakness of the Free Democracies.  We are saddened and disgusted by the apparent appeasement of the brutal invader and obvious war criminal, that Putin has chosen to be.
 
Russia should of course, at least be cut off completely from the global financial system.  It should be expelled from Interbank SWIFT system, as Iran was, and all it's offshore assets should be frozen or siezed.  It would also be fair and wise to blockade it's ports, and close all airspace around it.  Nothing like this was being done at first, and no direct military assistance is being offered to the Ukraine democratic government, other than some small shipments of small arms and ammunition, which Canada supplied via two deliveries from an RCAF transport aircraft.  
 
And little Estonia, has supplied some anti-tank hand-launched small missiles, which have been put to effective and immediate use, once the border crossings were breached and overrun.
 
Zelenskiy, the President of Ukraine, has appealed for European assistance, but has received little, so far.  Ukraine stands alone, and they risk being overrun and crushed, despite the brave fight it's high quality soldiers are putting up.   The lack of response by European nations, is particularly tragic.   America can claim it is not their fight, but no European can honestly say such a thing.
 
The entire event is a dark episode, which will change our modern course of history dramatically.   Probably, the ISS (the International Space Station) will be declared to have completed it's mission, and it will be de-orbited.   Despite a massive stock market recovery on Friday, which reversed all the previous market losses of two days previous, all Russian government bonds remain untradeable, and it is unlikely that any outside investments of any kind will be made in Russia, unless or until regime-change takes place there.    What the markets are saying, is that *all* the economic pain will accrue to Russia (and Ukraine), and economic benefit will flow to North America, as it remains free of Russian influence.  The pressure to raise administered interest-rates will be very much lowered, and all price pressure and inflation, can now be blamed on idiotic Russian action.
 
Our portfolios have more than fully recovered, which is evidence of the scenario just descibed.   The only losers here are Ukraine and Russia.  We believe Putin has been extremely unwise - insanely stupid, really.    ( MCL copy, Feb. 26, 2022 )
--- 30 ---
 
As of today, much more direct military aid has been commtted for Ukraine, with Czech Republic and Germany planning to send significant amounts of arms and materiel.   We hope the Ukrainians can hold out.  But there is NO direct American involvement, and Biden has refused to commit any troops or even air support, as he doubtless wants to avoid nuclear war with Russia.
 
We caution that this may be a very bad decision.   A better course of action would be actively assist Ukraine, and call Putin's bluff.   If Putin uses nuclear weapons, then the Free World would have the opportunity to completely remove the Putin Threat, and then assist Russia in becoming a free and prosperous member of the European Community, instead of a gangster-nation of invader-terrorists, which it has now been forced to be, by the gangster government that controls it.   No one in Russia will benefit from the current course of action.   The Americans should take whatever action is required to engineer regime-change in Russia.
 
The correct time to do this is NOW, and not to wait until Putin has made good on his threats, and launched his missiles against Europe and the World.  We honestly believe he may well be insane, or perhaps on drugs of some kind.  (There are serious, real reasons to believe this is actually the case.)
 
He started this war, but it will be up to the Free Democracies to ensure that it finishes with a clear victory for the Free World.   No other option can be tolerated - or should even be considered.  Putin is a Liar-Leader - and appeasement of a Liar-Leader,  is quite impossible.  
 
Churchill warned this about Hitler, and now the whole world knows this about Putin. 
 
[ Feb. 26, 2022 ] - Days and Nights - of terror and mass-murder by Russian forces in Ukraine.  The Putin War in Ukraine is as ugly and awful as it was unnecessary.  Vladimir Putin is a war criminal, on par with Osama Bin Laden.   What is curious, is how little is being done to help the democratic nation of Ukraine.  The "Sanctions" that Joe Biden, the acting President of the USA, has implemented, are minimal, and will not deter this Russian aggression.  The UN has also proven to be completely ineffective, and is really a rather bad joke.  It is a truly an epic failure as an organization.  

The Mayor of Kyiv has posted, using Telegram, the true pictures of what the Russian assault on Kyiv looks like.  Apartment buildings are being destroyed by incoming missile attacks.   Vladimir Putin really IS being Osama Bin Laden.  He is not even up to the level of a Hitler or a Stalin. 

People in New York City might find the pictures interesting.    If they remember 21 years ago, their city was also under attack by Terrorists.  

America might consider trying to do a bit more.   Russia is now a failed entity, run by a terrorist criminal.  Until regime-change takes place in that country, there should be no economic interaction of any kind, by anyone in the Free World, with any entity in or from Russia.   The next step should be a complete blockade of all Russian ports.

Meanwhile:  The sad little toad-like men who Putin has put in to positions of power, have been told to stop stammering, and speak their lies clearly and directly.   If people were not being murdered by Putin (psychopath & pathelogical liar), it would be the best comedy show of the year:

https://www.businessinsider.co.za/spy-chief-putin-humiliated-releases-video-echoing-putins-war-rhetoric-2022-2

Putin is making up this astonishing lie that Russian speakers are being hurt and that a "genocide" is happening in Ukraine, so the Russian forces are invading to "help" people!   Except the truth is that even the Russian speakers are actively part of the Ukrainian defense.  Putin's lies are so outrageous and absurd, that even his own people cannot actually speak them without stammering and being told by Putin to "Speak directly!"  It is just a farce.   I recall this old saying: "History repeats like a bad play:  First, as Tragedy, and then later, as Farce."

[ Feb. 25, 2022 ] - Great Russian Leaders: Peter the Great, Yeltsin the Courageous.  Bad Russian Leaders: Ivan the Terrible, Putin the Stupid - Spy guys should not try to be Statesmen or Kings.  They need to be working for someone who knows how and what to do.   Vladimir Putin is just another in a long line of very bad Leaders, a corrupt, abusive fraudster.

All our portfolio losses have fully recovered today.  So, in the words of the very, very brave Ukrainians who refused to surrender their little island to a Russian warship: "Fuck you, Russian warship".  They were all killed by cowardly Russians.   Jesus, do the poor bastard Russians know what their fuck-stupid "Leader" is doing to their own country?   We honestly think that Putin is a raging psychopath.   The Russian Government (their Duma, or Parliament), should arrest the crazy murdering lunatic, and put him on trial for mass murder and the criminal use of Russian military defense forces.  That man is just a filthy, common war criminal.

No one will be doing *any* business of any kind with Russia, and once Biden goes, it will get worse, not better for Russia.  Poor, weak Mr. Biden, a very old man, whose days are ending... damn how he reminds us of Neville Chamberlain of the UK, back in the 1930's.  He is a failed, weak, "yesterday man" - his time is past - and so is that sad real-estate bankrupt, Donald Trump.  All this human nonsense has to be swept from the stage now.

We need new programs, and new, strong leaders, who will mine all the Russian harbours, and enforce a complete blockade of Russia, until all it's murder-squads are removed from Ukraine, and the criminal idiot Vladimir Putin is put on trial in the European Court of Justice, just like Slobface from Serbia was.  

What is impressive, is the courage and tenacity and quality of Zelenskiy and the Ukrainian military.   And the people of Ukraine, who went to Police stations, and were handed AK-47s and ammunition, so they could shoot the criminal forces invading their cities.

Really, the correct course of action is to destroy Vladimir Putin.   That abusive, crazy murdering fraudster sleeps somewhere.  Time to knock that boy off his golden toilet.  This is a job for anyone who wants to do it - but it would be best done by Russians themselves.  The man is a crazy, meglomaniac psychopath, who should not have any power or authority.  The whole situation is just tragic madness.  Putin is this decade's Bin Laden.   He is Bin Laden with nuclear weapons, and his actions threaten the whole world - but mostly, he is destroying Russia itself, and the future of the Russian people.   

PM:  And it appears the ISS (International Space Station) is finished with it's mission.  It will have to be de-orbited, and dropped into the ocean.   The Chinese were wise to orbit their own platform.  Doubtless the US will have to do this also.  No more money for the Russian Space program, and least none from the Free Democracies.   It's over.

https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/space-station-can-drop-on-india-russian-space-chief-on-us-sanctions-2789547#News_Trending

[ Feb. 24, 2022 ] - Vladimir Putin Channels Adolf Hitler - We honestly did not think Putin would be this fucking stupid.  The military invasion of Ukraine, in a flagrant and astonishing violation of International Law, has just begun.  We had expected Putin to cleverly *threaten* invasion, but not actually be such a shit-for-brains as to launch an armed assault against Kyiv & it's Airport, send in the tanks, murder the border guards, and rain missles down on civilian centres.

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia-ukraine-latest-news?mod=article_inline

Putin has now shown himself to be the equivalent of Osama Bin Laden - just another dangerous, armed terrorist killer, which the world will have to deal with.   Like Bin Laden, he talks nonsense and then kills innocent people for political gain.  He is now the world's greatest threat.

Bravo for American intelligence and the actual *HONEST* spies of the USA. 

Suddenly, History is happening again, and the good and honourable people of the world, will have to rise up, and take charge.   Citizens of the Free World, must sweep the weak and foolish sanction-talking puppets from their positions, and honest and strong leaders must take their places. 

The really very bad people are back in their war-saddles, on their war-horses, and are attacking cities and killing the innocent who only want to do their business, and live their lives.    These outlaw killers will have to be taken down and their gangster forces destroyed.

Putin is an outright liar, a war-criminal and a gangster terrorist.   We are quite honestly astonished that things have gone so far off the rails in Russia, that their existing government would allow this to happen.    Putin should be arrested, charged with criminal assault and mass-murder, and imprisoned by the Russian government.   And the gangster armies that are invading Ukraine should be recalled.    And if they refuse, and go full-rogue and become pirates, they - and their commanders (especially their commanders) should be destroyed by any means possible.  

We hope the Ukrainians have the resources to fight these bastards to a stand-still.  Perhaps the folks in Poland might take this opportunity to restore the rightful elected government in Belarus, and correct the ugly situation in Minsk.   Just a thought, since the Belarusian gangsters are distracted by their pirate enterprise in the south.

Sanctions are bullshit.  What the Free World needs are missles, with large warheads and effective, accurate targeting ability.  And the courage and wisdom to launch the bloody things.  Talk achieves nothing, when dealing with outlaws.

https://www.businessinsider.com/un-ambassadors-comfort-ukraine-rep-amid-news-of-russian-assault-2022-2

[ Feb. 23, 2022 ] - Spring Will Come - But not just yet.  At the moment, we are in the middle of a blizzard.  Curious times.  Our AI forecasting technology has just turned profoundly negative.  Yet, our hedges seem to be working, and the portfolios are weathering the storm rather well.    We expect a turn, as it seems a global rush to conflict and violence would not only be suicidal for the nation-states, but just so very bad for all positive economic outcomes everywhere.  It is clear that we now need changes of the various nation-state leaderships, especially in Russia, USA and Canada.  Our artificial intelligence software suggests a global co-ordinated economic downturn - which need not happen - is now being actively programmed into the global system.    We caution - both as Economists and computerized Analysts - that serious efforts should be made to avoid this path.

Today, the Ukraine Parliament passed a law allowing Ukraine citizens who are not in the army, to acquire and carry firearms.   Just a bit late, folks.   People who do not read or understand history, do not understand where Freedom comes from.  This is a modern tragedy.   Unarmed people are always at risk of being made into slaves - or worse.  The correct social model, is Switzerland.   People should be taught - or at least try to read - honest history.

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-defense/3410346-verkhovna-rada-passes-bill-on-civilian-firearms-at-first-reading.html

[ Feb. 22, 2022 ] - Time to Change the Program - The Rubicon has been crossed, but it has been crossed without Caesar.   Perhaps this is the way it must be done.  A Caesar can be destroyed.  (Next month is March.)   But it is not possible to destroy all the people, and those who have used violence and force of arms against their own people eventually fall, are destroyed, and their names are vilified by history.

It will be amusing, were it possible, to watch the meeting between Justin Trudeau and Vladimir Putin in Hell.

They will have so much to talk about.

[ Feb. 21, 2022 ] - There Will Come Soft Rains - And more besides.  Shame on those whom we thought were good men of integrity and honour.  It seems the poets warned us all along, didn't they.   The Hollow Men - and their women - are now in charge, it seems. 

[ Feb. 20, 2022 ] - If You Voted for a "Liberal", or for a "Trudeau person", You Made a Serious Mistake - Please correct this mistake, if you ever get another chance to vote in a free and fair election in Canada. 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/justin-trudeaus-destructive-emergency-canada-truckers-protest-11645223027?mod=trending_now_opn_1

This Trudeau character, and his foolish, abusive & corrupt Compact, must be removed from power.  We would also ask that everyone please refrain from providing any support or economic  assistance of any kind to Liberal "Party" operatives, or organizations which support the Liberal "Party".

Individuals on their own have no power to influence or change anything - especially when Governments have invoked Military Law and declared themselves to have "Emergency Powers".  Personally we did not care about the protesting Truck Drivers.

But we were wrong.  What the protesting Truck Drivers were doing, was important, and the idiotic and abusive actions by that lightweight Waterhole-person we have acting as our Prime Minister has made it clear, that the protests against the abusive Ottawa fraudsters was justified, valuable and necessary.

The protests have now been crushed, the protesters arrested, and their assets have been siezed by government agents.  

We believe this to be so very wrong.  But it has made clear to us all, exactly what we are dealing with in this country.

We caution anyone in Canada reading this - be very careful.  It is possible that Trudeau and his henchmen may not be as stupid and foolish as they appear.   The "Emergency Powers" the Liberals have given themselves allow them to destroy anyone who opposes them.   History shows that the Liberals have typically exploited crisis-events to their own benefit.  They are a powerful and dangerous Gang.  They have read their Lenin, their Mao, and doubtless "The Prince", by Machiavelli.  They know it is better to be feared, than to be loved or respected.   History lets us know these kinds of people, and know them well.

Trudeau has shown he is willing to kow-tow to China and America  - and act as an errand-boy for their interests.   Yet he brings out the machine-guns against peaceful, unarmed protesters - his own citizens in his own country.   He makes up lies and outrageous fraudulent accusations, and says the protesters are misogynists (a "misogynist" is someone who hates women!  Truck Drivers hate Women?  Really, Mr. Trudeau?) and "violent racists",   Trudeau is either insane, or he is simply using dishonest & inflamatory rhetoric to try to sway public opinion.   We do not believe he is insane - so we can only conclude he is a lying fraud.

Should we really have a lying fraud, as our Prime Minister?    Sure, this is a rhetorical question - but it still deserves an answer, even if the truthful response remains in your own heart.

We *MUST* correct this ugly and grotesque situation.    Our hope is for a *Vote of No Confidence* in the House.    These Liberals are a *Minority Government*

This means if all the other political parties in Parliament vote in FAVOUR of the Vote of No Confidence we can get these Liberal rogues THROWN OUT and a new election will have to be called.

And then we can see if the protesting Truck Drivers really were a "fringe element" like our Prime Lying Sack of Crap has asserted, or maybe we can discover that perhaps, the Truck Drivers were actually the true voice of the Free Canadian People.

It's time for Parliament to do it's job now.   We need to have this "Liberal Government" (such as it is) removed.

Canadians and their Parliament have the legal tools required to make this happen, and it is time we made use of them.

[ Feb. 19, 2022 ] - Police Armed with Machine Guns Smash Truck Windows of Ottawa Protesters - And so the uselessness of peaceful protest is again demostrated in Ottawa.   Police armed with automatic weapons (that means: machine-guns and bullet-proof riot gear), take down the peaceful protesters in Ottawa, by smashing the windows of the truck-drivers, arresting hundreds of them, towing away their trucks, and siezing the funds in their bank accounts.   This is what you can do, if you invoke the "Emergency Measures Act", which this Trudeau character's father also did.  (It was called the "War Measures Act" in his day.)  

The Liberals are also the ones who put all the Japanese-Canadians in Concentration camps during World War II, and siezed their property and never paid any compensation to those whose property was stolen - pretty much exactly what was first done to the Jews of Europe under the German National Socialist government.  When people compare Trudeau and the Liberals to Hitler and the Nazi's, there is some solid basis for this assertion, based on historical fact.   

It is useful to see the true face of Liberalism in this nation.  It is shown to be a very ugly face, when it can be seen clearly, without the usual lies and deceptions of the Leftist Liberal media organs.  Newsmax caught the real image...

https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/canada-truckers-protest-riot-gear/2022/02/19/id/1057588/

Perhaps this ugly scene can cure the Canadian people of their fixation with Trudeau, and the Liberal Compact.  This Trudeau character has got to be removed - and his removal might well require a similar sort of direct action.   This is unfortunate.  The times are not *changing* any more.  They have now changed, and change *must* take place.  Protesting abuse of power is just foolish and pointless.   Protests achieve nothing at all, and are easily neutralized by government folks armed with automatic weapons, and the extra-legal ability to sieze private bank accounts.  

I fear we are all in for some very difficult times.   Trudeau says the protesters are a "fringe element", but we suspect he is very wrong about this.

[ Feb 18 PM, 2022 ] - Separatists with Howitzers? - The Russian Lie Machine is truly beyond belief now.  The truth of the Ukraine nightmare, is that a proxy Russian army (the separaists in the Donetsk region)  is operating already, and is carrying out a series of military assaults against civilian targets.  They are using heavy artillery.  They are shelling private homes and schools, and are killing civilians, and the astonishing Russian Lie Machine is trying to suggest that the Ukraine Army defending it's homeland, is somehow doing something wrong.  Vladimir Putin has become a hard-core liar. 

This is just a tragic and stupid situation.   We really used to like Putin.    Perhaps he has had a stroke, or maybe some group is now controlling him.  A Russian invasion of Ukraine is deeply wrong, and would be supremely stupid.  It could destroy Russia, in the long run.   The whole world will have to gear up for war, if it happens, since it means everything Russian authorities say, is not to be trusted at all.   Russia has over 2000 nuclear weapons, and if their government is insane and made up of murderous nutjobs, then something will have to be done to correct that - eventually.

The East Ukraine "seperatists" are just Russian-backed criminals, that are engaged in running murder-squads to kill Ukrainians and steal their property.   Even the Wall Street Journal and the New York Times have picked up on what is really happening.  (You need a subscription to the WSJ to see the images of the houses that were shelled in Stanytsia-Lushankya, as the story is an exclusive to the WSJ.)   But the New York Times has images of the childrens school that was shelled.  The Russian proxy "army" of separatists is doing the shelling.  This is the real story, not the FSB dis-information fake-news nonsense. 

Good for the New York Times, and the WSJ.   Because of 9/11, Americans in New York have some understanding of what it feels like to be on the ground, during a violent, terrorist attack.  

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/17/world/europe/stanytsia-lushankya-shelling.html

We wonder why the Ukrainians have to face the risk of abusive, murderous assault by the Russian military, all by themselves?  Why does Ukraine not have *any* allies who could help them stand up to well-funded, well-equipped Russian invasion force?    This is just bullshit.

Stalin's Russian forces raped that entire nation, and murdered over 1 million land-owners in the 1930s, so it could steal their property to build those awful "Soviet Collective Farms" which were just massive exercises in property-theft and mass-murder.   Then Hitler and the Germans came and invaded, and again stole all the best property.    Russia re-captured the place, and brought it's exploding, badly-run Soviet nuclear plant, which then delivered the worst nuclear accident in history.  Chernobyl was an accident - but it was a Russian accident that did not have to happen.

One has to feel for Ukraine.   It has had a tragic history, and now, it faces a threat from the Belarusian thugs from the north, and the Russian military from everywhere else.  It is easy to predict the outcome here, if Russia executes on it's invasion scheme.  Again, the land will be overrun by thugs and criminals, unless the Ukrainians are offered some sort of military assistance.  Biden is dangerously weak, and this was demonstrated by the horrible Afghan "cut-and-run" exercise.  So Putin is emoboldened by the evident American weakness.

But a destroyed Ukraine may result.  The Ukrainians may fight for their homeland, as they have tasted freedom, and perhaps they like the taste.  Freedom is worth fighting for.  It is even worth dying for, I suspect.   Everyone will die.   And to die in the battle to defend your homeland from criminal invaders, would give each and every citizen-soldier's life real meaning.

History shows "Leaders" need to be careful, in starting wars.  The un-opposed thug leader of some impoverished people may start a war of conquest - and enjoy initial success.  But the very action puts in place an intense desire among previously unfocused groups of people, to unify themselves, and act to recover their lost homelands.  War begets intense hatred and anger and these emotions lead passive people to become active, weak people to become strong, and tired people to find new sources of vigour, energy, courage and ability.  All is changed by war.

Mr. Putin, Are you sure you want to open this Box?

[ Feb 18, 2022 ] - The Madness of King Waterhole - Things are getting really weird and rather quite ugly, everywhere now it seems.  Here, we have a lightweight PM who has just invoked the "War Measures Act'.   Oops, it was renamed the "Emergency Powers Act" when it was re-written in 1988 to allow bank accounts to be siezed without court orders.   This is just wrong, wrong & wrong.   If you protest against political abuse and *very bad government*, then you are now at risk of full-on economic assault, designed to destroy lives and reduce people to poverty.   And you risk the jackboots also, of course.

Anyone who votes for the "Liberal Party" in this country, is either mentally deluded or perhaps is an active participant in a LIberal gangster-style consipiracy to enrich themselves.  Our primary mandate now, is that we remove the abusive Liberal Mafia that holds power in Ottawa.   The Leftist "Waterhole Gang" really must be removed.   These people should not be in positions of political power.   They have quite literally no idea what they are doing.   All they can do successfully, is to crush and destroy anyone who opposes them.   It is basically Martial Law that Waterhole's gang has now declared - just to stop some protesting truck-drivers!  This is wrong.

I am sick to death of liars and fools and fraudsters pumping out the Covid lies.   Most of my neighbours did NOT get vaccines, and instead got sick with Covid last year.  I think they are unwise, but they did not die.  They are now all doing just fine.  We are achieving herd-immunity.  If you do your research, you can see that this is how all pandemics end.

We got all the vaccines we could get, once we could get them.  We just got a Pfizer booster a couple of weeks ago, and two Moderna mRNA shots last year.  We are not anti-Vax.   We are scientists, not god-believers.    But we also see that most folks have now either been vaccinated or have got Covid and recovered.    All this Nazi-style government bullshit to try to dictate everyone's behaviour, has been a full-on example of Leftist madness, and it was just over-the-top wrong.  

I kept hearing all this "Covid-19 will overwhelm the Health-Care system..." blah blah blah.   It was such stupid talk.    We have a socialist health care model, and the folks working there have done their jobs.  But only just.   The system is not great.   But nothing was *overwhelmed".  A few people had to actually do some real work.   Fine.  They should, if that is their job.

In the old days, the Doctor would come to your house.  That was a good model.  The current model - where everyone has to go to a hospital or clinic, is a bad model, and ensures that virus transmission can be more effective and rapid.   Socialism is just stupid shit.  But no-one wants to say this obvious truth, since there is so much money flowing to so many in the current socialist system.

Our vaccination rates are over 80%, despite how idiotically difficult it was to actually get access to the vaccines.  (If we did not have Elon Musk's high-speed, Starlink internet access, we would not even have been ABLE to get booked at the vaccine web-sites, and the vaccinated!  It was just comical! )

The key fact learned, is that strength and freedom come from tolerating private, individual actions that encourage strength and freedom.   If my neighbour wants to get his/her immunity by the old-fashioned approach to this, I figure that is his or her business.  These stupid Covid *mandates* by Leftist governments achieved nothing whatsoever, other than to damage people's lives.   The Chinese model of "Zero Covid" is so fucking amazingly stupid, that it is just a comedy of tragic behaviour.  The only solution is mass-vaccination, and we now have seen - with the Omicron variant - that even that did not really work very well, either.  But at least it might have saved lives and reduced the intensity of the illness for some.

Vaccines are a great idea.  But it is wrong to punish people who don't get vaccinated.  Let them be the control-group, and let's watch and see what happens to them.  They seem to be doing ok.

The government mandates simply seem to have been used to create private difficulty, and even to have destroyed lives.  They were - like most "government actions" - just another chapter in a long series of massive, life-destroying, tragic failures on the part of ill-informed, dishonest State authorities.   Why can people not see just how dangerous and often worthless, most "Government" action generally is?  The State is very rarely the solution to the problem - it is almost always the source and the amplifier of the problem.  We saw this - again - with Covid. 

Mad King Waterhole should be made to resign.   And it would be interesting if the "Emergency Measures Act" (The "War Powers Act", basically our version of Martial Law for extreme military emergencies) could perhaps be used to de-fund the Liberal Party, and put the dishonest and abusive LIberal machine out of business forever.   It would be most amusing and so very educational, to see Mad King Waterhole, hoisted on his own petard.

We are done with Covid, and we are done with the Left.   Time for them both to be tossed into the Great Dumpster of History.

[ Feb. 17, 2022 ] - Are You Receiving Me? - Or are you deceiving me?   Information confrontation should really be more than just a smelly wet sack of lies.   Crazy old man running things, wants to make war on the world.  In the times of the ancients, the unwise leaders that attempted this sort of foolish strategy, ended their days early, as they watched their world collapse around them.  Stupid, stupid & stupid.   Like Beetlejuice.  Say it three times.   Invite the Devil to come on in.   Are your sure you want this?

[ Feb. 15, 2022 ] - How Fast are *Your* Neutrons? - Been doing a bit of research on FNRs (Fast Neutron Reactors), which are a new-ish class of nuclear fission reactor.   Actually, they have been around since the beginning of commercial-grade nuclear power generation.   Too long & too complex to talk about here - but my neutrons have typically been "thermal", which means they are just tooting along, not moving too fast at all.

Nuclear physics is a science of probabilities, rather like the marketplace takes the science of scarcity (economics), and makes it's randomness, manifest.   A neutron will slam into a nucleus, and whack it apart (and maybe produce a shower of new neutrons, depending on what kind of nucleus it hit), and of course, each of these new neutrons can make stuff happen.  Hence the "chain reaction" thing.  The size of the nucleus to be hit, it's "cross section", is measured in "barns", and the bigger a cross-section, the higher likelyhood of a neutron-collision.  Why "barns"?  The story is that a physics guys, measuring a (estimating) cross-section, found a big one, and said "The cross-section of this stuff is as big as a barn!"  If you Google "how big is a barn cross section", you can get an explanation.  Ok, here is a link:

https://www.britannica.com/science/barn-measurement

and a more complete explanation, here:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barn_(unit)

I've been working on a hybrid fusion-fission device idea.   So are many others, of course.   My table-top IEC (Inertial Electrostatic Confinement) fusion device works ok, but it's net energy output is so small as to be effectively un-measurable.  All it really is, is an expensive, rather low output, neutron generator.  The little piece of radioactive Americium-241 inside a typical smoke-detector can be put in a berylium container, and is probably a cheaper neutron source, if you really need a little neutron stream.  If you hit berylium with alpha-particles (basically a Helium nucleus), you get neutrons reflected back.  Americium-241 is useful little isotope.  It is a by-product of nuclear-reactor action, and can be found in the spent fuel from a nuke plant.  Check out link below, if curious:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Americium-241

Neutrons have mass, but no electric charge, so this makes them very useful.   A neutron beam is like a little machine-gun of tiny, non-ionizing particles, and can be used to destroy cancer tumors without causing more cancer (no ionization-radiation cell damage, without the electrical charge), and can also be used in soil moisture detection devices, and so on.  But since neutrons have no charge, you cannot aim the stream easily, like you can an electron beam, or a proton beam, like what comes from your cyclotron or other particle-accelerator, if you are lucky enough to have one to play with.   We have one in Canada, that you can book time on, if you need to, but it's a tad expensive, IIRC ...

https://www.triumf.ca/research-program/research-facilities/main-cyclotron-beam-lines

But it's beam is 520 mev protons, not neutrons.   With a beam of high-energy neutrons, you can change basic stuff (elements) into other stuff (this is called: transmutation.)   In the old days, of course, everyone wanted to change lead into gold.  Well, if you have enough time and enough neutrons, you actually are able to do this... 

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/fact-or-fiction-lead-can-be-turned-into-gold/

But the amount of gold produced, is not much at all, as the article above describes.   It's really the neutrons that are interesting, since if you can scatter enough of these tiny hardballs, you can make all sorts of interesting nuclear reactions happen - especially if you have managed to seperate out a baseball-sized lump of "fissile material", like U-235 or Pu-239.  (Pu-241 is fissile, but it has a half-life of only 14 years, whereas Pu-239 has a half-life of over 24,000 years.  Both are able to react with thermal (slow walking) neutrons.)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fissile_material

The world will be needing a *lot* of new nuclear reactors soon, or we will all be freezing in the dark, and will all start becoming a lot more poor, by every economic measure.   Our future is nuclear, no matter which path we go down.  Better it be cheap, nuclear-generated electricity, rather than air-bursts of plutonium-239 loaded devices above our cities.   We have to be darn careful with plutonium, since only around 1 kg of the Pu-239 isotope is needed to create a nasty thing that would be bad (ie. a 1 kiloton of TNT equivalent detonation, and resulting radioactive mess).  But atomic bombs are not all bad.  You can make them as small as a coke-bottle.  And if you have a simple system to poop them outside the back of your spaceship, you could build an atomic space ship that could zoom around the solar system quickly and still be able to slow down and go into orbit.  (cf. Project Orion - which was a real, true actual project for such a ship, with design work done by Dr. Freeman Dyson and General Atomics, back in the 1950's)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Orion_(nuclear_propulsion)

Also, this is Freeman's son, and his research project, as a TED Talk. (I think it is the best TED Talk that has ever been done, truth be told...)

https://www.ted.com/talks/george_dyson_the_story_of_project_orion?language=en

My little research fusion device ran on deuterium.  Deuterium  (heavy-hydrogen gas, basically hydrogen with a proton and a neutron as it's nucleus, not just a single proton, as is the case for ordinary hydrogen), is not radioactive, so, unlike tritium, it is not a "controlled substance".  But the chemical companies sure want to know who you are, when you order a lecture-bottle of the stuff, for your fusion-reactor.   Canada's nuclear reactors - the CANDU design - are well-designed and safe, and use deuterium-water (heavy water) and are providing the power I am using, to type this little note.    In Ontario, roughly half of our electricity is generated by nuclear reactors, since Niagara Falls has been maxed out for many years.  (At night, almost no water even goes over the falls, as almost all the river is diverted into the large power-production reservoir.)    Whether you like it or not, we have all "gone nuclear" quite a long time ago.   

But we never did get those "nuclear spaceships".  Although famous Admiral Rickover did give us the nuclear submarine "Nautilus", which was launched and sailed under the arctic ice to the North Pole, before I was even born.  He also created the USA's nuclear-power Navy ships, and his team designed and had built the first commercial nuclear power plant, at Shippingport.   And he did it all in 10 years, which is very impressive.   (Our little nuclear research project is far reaching.)   We are interested in determining what works as what does not work.   Rickover and his people designed safe, reliable nuclear power technology that worked well.  His story is almost beyond belief, except we know it all got done and was and is all true.    :)

[ Feb. 14, 2022 ] - My Funny Valentine's Day - Perhaps it is time to address the algorithm problem?  Are we really enhancing price discovery and market stability, by allowing computers to do most of our trading?  The SEC (and in Canada, the OSC), seem to be just a bit behind the curve, and asleep at the switch on this.  The algo-trading is creating a curious, "tripwire" environment, which could be made less insane (we suspect), simply by asking that humans be required to enter trades, not just automatic computer programs.  

Our concern is that the "tripwire trading" that modern algorithmic (ie. automatic) computer-connected trading systems (where computers themselves are running procedures which actually do almost all the buying and selling on the modern financial markets), contains within itself the seed of it's own (and the marketplace's) destruction.  

We are not complaining (in fact, truth be told, we are doing ok...), but the markets looks silly.  And it is simply our experience, that suggests that *silly* carries curious - and maybe serious -  risk. 

We honestly don't want the system to blow up, and ruin itself.   But an ocsillating system, connected to itself, and driving itself based on it's own past results from a few time-units earlier, will eventually blow itself to bits, by oscillating violently to it's own (and then well past), it's own limits.   I worry about this.  Or maybe I am just getting old or something like that ...  

[ Feb. 13, 2022 ] - If You Want to Hire Them, How Much Does the Light Brigade Charge? - Curious, this build-up to World War Vee.    Really, really curious...   It's insane, on so many levels.  

[ Feb. 11, 2022 ] - Bad Moon (and Prices!) Rising - We are generally very optimistic folks.  But not right now.  Interest rates rising off of the silly almost-zero line they have been resting on, will blow everyone's leveraged assets to hell.   This is just a fact, not an opinion.   We have been sucking back financial heroin for quite a while - and the super-cheap debt (in conservative Canada, where banks typically demand loan-to-value ratios of 75/25), you could get 5 year term, 30-year mortgages for around 3%.   This has driven house prices thru the roof, with typical ordinary suburban house in Southern Ontario now selling in the $1,000,000-plus range.    This is nuts. 

It gets corrected, when mortgage rates are driven up by market forces, and thus the value of the debt-leveraged assets get re-priced.  This causes real-estate prices to downshift.  I've seen this happen (in a big way) at least twice in my life.  We are due for a three-peat, I suspect.

But it happens at same time as the bond market turns over.  That means hard losses for fintech and banks, holding paper wealth.  It just does.   Think I am full of crap?  Check out these NYSE and NASDAQ ticker symbols:    EMB, HYG, JNK (or BARC on London), LQD, MUB.   They are bond and bond-ish ETF's  (Exchange Traded Funds).    They are all turning over.

The recent inflation print in USA land (7.5% annual CPI increase, as per January reading), means the inflation is no longer *coming*, it's now here.   We knew this, since we run a farm, and everything is up around 20% or more in price. 

The problem with inflation, is that the economic-wonkers still do not understand it well.  You can get all these squirrelly things happen - assets zoom up, and then crash down, once it becomes clear the economy is busted.   And inflation really *DOES* bust the economy, because it makes it unclear what is really happening.  The price mechanism - which is a signalling, information transfer device, stops working right.   Plus, consumption gets favoured over investment, and this can happen in a BIG WAY, so much so, that the savings-into-investment process breaks down completely.  This butchers the process-model that lets an economy create wealth.  The 1970's, especially after the "oil shock" (where the Arabs jacked up the price of oil, and gasoline in Canada was repriced from 45 cents per gallon, to 75 cents per litre (4.2 litres in the Imperial gallon, which is used in Canada, not the smaller US gallon).   This just blew us up, and Trudeau (Version 1.0) and his buddy Edmund Clark (who was young at the time, and who became much later the boss of Toronto Dominion bank, and was really a very fine fellow, truth be told), came up with a plan to control crude oil prices, create "Petro Canada", and thus manage the price of Canadian petrol.    This was of course a disaster, much like Jimmy Carter's ill-fated attempts in the USA, which created the huge, long gas lines, and also did great damage to the USA economy.

Price controls are REALLY VERY BAD  - but it seems every generation has to learn this fact.  The old comment is true:  The best price controls are no price controls, since the very best cure for high prices, is of course, high prices.

But it seems every new crop of children have to re-learn this simple economic truth.  So very curious, as if our history simply does not exist - or the kids just don't read it.  Weird, truly.

Inflation first gooses the stock market, and then it kicks the crap out of it, since the investment process basically stops working.   The stock market requires people to have faith and trust, and believe in the future.  When they no longer do - because the present is becoming a sh/tshow of awful proportions, then the stocks collapse, since there are not anywhere near enough true savings to fund the investment process, and the economy becomes a "STAGFLATION" phenomenon.   Stocks tend to re-trace to previous levels.  Example:  A bank that yields 4% in a zero-interest-rate, low inflation environment, needs to be re-priced from 100 down to 50, in order to yield 8% (nominal yield, not "real" yield).  If inflation is running at 7.5%, then you will need to get 8% rate of dividend on your stock investments, JUST TO EARN 1/2 of 1% real-yield.   You can get your bigger rate-of-dividend, if the share-price collapses.  The bank share price also falls off, because all those 1-million dollar houses (with their 700,000 dollar mortgages), get repriced down to around $750,000 (a 25% fall in value).   If the collateral falls, the share-value of the bank falls, assuming investors are not all brain-dead.

This inflation problem is *really* well understood, by people who have seen it, and by economists who have actually had to fix this sort of horror-show.  And these horror-shows have historically been very common in Africa and South America, since the inept and/or corrupt (usually both) political people in charge in those places, often try to print money to pay for what must be purchased.  But their national debt is typically in hard-currency, and so a whole viper's-nest of disasters result.  Often, these sad nations just default on their loans.   It's a very bad movie that plays over and over again, since a different crop of crooks take over every few years.  One can review all this foolishness, from Argentina to Zimbabwe, and see the same bad behaviour by corrupt, dishonest, LEFTIST politicians.   It is sad and bad - and happens over and over again.    No one can fix this, it seems.

Northern nations, which have knowledge of their own (and other's) histories, generally do not want to let an inflation (or an inflation-process) get started.   Inflation beginning is like a fire in fireworks factory.  You need to be quick on the draw, to get that fire out, before the big stuff catches.

Curious how nothing much is being done, by anyone, anywhere - yet.   So far, it's all just talk, talk, talk.  We find this very curious, because the recent CPI prints have shown that the inflation has now become entrenched and is starting to affect general economic behaviour in North America.  

WIthin the next few weeks, we expect this awareness to show up in the stock markets.  But it has not, just yet, it appears.  (It *is* showing up in Bond-land...)

[ Feb. 10, 2022 ] - Starlight, Star, bright, Have We the Fusion Star Tonite? - Read details of JET fusion reactor run at Oxford in the UK.  They got the beast to run on a mixture of D2 and tritium for FIVE SECONDS.   That is big.  The experimental reactor ran up a heat energy of 59 megajoules, according to published bumpf.    This is perhaps a medium-sized deal, maybe.  And maybe it is just more hype...   Here is note, from WNN:

https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Fusion-energy-record-at-JET-huge-step-forward

The reactor chamber walls use berylium, instead of carbon-based material.  Berylium is good.  It is dangerous to work with (the dust can kill you, it's so toxic to humans), but it is just a lovely neutron reflector.  We like it. 

Anyway, I had to do some reading on PWR's (Pressurized Water Reactors).  CANDU reactors use heavy water, (D2 instead of H2 in the H2O chemistry).  Expensive, but makes a better moderator, IIRC.   PWRs use light water, and high-pressure, circulate reactor cooling water and then a heat-exchanger to generate steam for the turbines to generate the electricity.   A tad complex.   I lean towards BWRs (boiling water reactors).   But PWRs are more common.   Reading details on Wikipedia page for PWRs, and even found an error in the technical notes on the pressurizer description - pretty funny.   We will all be building and using new fission reactors everywhere, pretty soon.  Or maybe not.  :)

What is sad about the whole fusion research and development process, is the bogus timelines for the government funded projects.  They are just silly, and almost a joke.  Fusion is just a fat sinecure for the academics and physics grads who don't want to build atom bombs, or drive cabs, or teach students.   We will all be dead of old age, before a single watt is added to the grid from a fusion reactor, if we are waiting for the government-funded electric-donuts to do anything useful.   It's just tragic-comic, really.  

It is helpful to read about what US Navy Admiral Rickover did.  I think he might be partly responsible for the fact that the world is still operational, in a rather non-trivial way.   I had read about his psychological evaluations that he did to select his nuclear submarine commanders.  These guys had the ability and the authority to launch nuclear missles from their subs, in the event the USA's command and control infrastructure - and it's political leaders - were all "removed" in a first-strike assault on North America.   Their existence, and the "electric boats" that General Dynamics built, made sure that no "surprise attack" on USA could hope to succeed, without either Russia or China (or maybe both, just for good measure!) being wiped out by a wave of sub-launched ICBM's carrying hydrogen-bomb warheads.  

This simple fact - and Rickover's explicit assurance that none of his sub Commanders would turn into "General Jack D. Ripper"  (of "Dr. Strangelove ... " film fame, played so well by Sterling Hayden), kept us all safe from Soviet and Red Chinese nuclear attack.

What I did not know, was the Rickover was the genius who insisted on the creation of the modern nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, and also the first commerical nuclear power plant.  Here is a link to the book, all about this:

https://www.usni.org/press/books/rickover-effect

More reading that must be done.    :)

[ Feb. 09, 2022 ] - Video Schilled the Radio Star - It just keeps getting more silly.  I am on page 183 of "Adam Smith's" - "The Money Game", where he describes how "Performance Funds" were born.  This stuff is so curious - it is ancient history, since it describes the bubbly, boomtime stock markets of the 1960's - yet it is such a timeless classic, it could have been written yesterday.  When it was all happening, I was a tiny child, reading the 'Stock Market Quotations" pages in the "Globe and Mail", at breakfast, before my miserable walk to Westmount Public School, where I would get iceballs thrown at my head by the school bullies.  Nothing really changes much.   We did "duck and cover" drills in the gym when I was in Grade Two, and I recall thinking quite clearly: "How in the hell is me sitting on the floor in the gym, going to make any difference to what happens to us, if an H-bomb is dropped on NORAD's (North American Air Defense) back-up headquarters up at North Bay?  Or maybe Toronto?  This is really stupid."  

But I see now - of course - just like reading the Stock Market Quotations (when I did not understand much about them at all) - it is all part of a boy's education.  And the most important thing that your education teaches you, is that most people are truly fucking stupid.   And when you know absolutely nothing at all - this is a very hard lesson to learn, since even though the people of the world are idiots (Baka!), when you are a little kid - they ALL are smarter and more knowledgeable than you are.   So, this critical part of your education - this most important part, really - is actually very difficult to learn.   It takes repeated examples and demostrations, over and over again, for you to grasp this key fact.  But learn it, you must.

The book, "The Money Game", is a timeless classic, because not much has really changed in the stock markets, or in human behaviour.  The stock market does a very good job of reminding you, that you are still stupid yourself, and still have much to learn.  And also (of course), the more you learnj, the more you realize just how stupid you, yourself still are.   It is quite a comedy, really.

But what is curious, is that so few people allow themselves to endure this harsh education.  I suppose they wish to stay in their comfort zone.  Me, I just get bored.  But I do *not* want to use the market action for excitement!   I would like more boring, please.   But it is not to be.  If I am to make any money, it seems I must continue to endure terror and pain.  Or do I just set myself up for this?    I have trouble buying back a position I have sold - only to watch it gap up daily in price.   This happens often to me, and I find it very painful and frustrating and quite annoying.

It is worse than losing money, and this is curious.    The emotional side of the market investing/speculation process is the most difficult.  Perhaps it would not be so bad, if I were just a professional doing this with other people's money.  One could have a professional sense of detachment, like a doctor, operating on a screaming patient to save his life.  But using your own hard-won funds - it's much like trying to operate on yourself (which I have done), and it is just not very nice at all, to have to do that.

The technology (my various AI forecasting systems) offer some insight and guidence, but they don't really offer much of an edge.   A man's greatest edge comes from a heightened sense of intuition, like what a woman has.  For a scientist, this is tough to accept - but easier for a neural science hacker, since we now "know" that some serious and useful action-algorithms can be stored (deeply) in a very large neural-network of many neurons of slightly different trigger states.  This is a big piece of information, which can explain why intuition can actually happen.

The 1920's and the 1960's and the 1980's were all periods of boomtime markets.  And so was the period of the late 1990's, running up to the first "dot-com" bubble burst.  The September 11, 2001 terrorist attack changed things - but it provoked a massive (and necessary) response, which gave us another run, up to the 2008-2009 Housing-Fraud/Bad-Model Financial crisis and resulting meltdown.  And recently, we had the initial Covid-19 Crash, in the spring of 2020.  (Oops, forgot the big Russian Default in 1998, and the silly autumn 1987 burpfart in the US markets).  

What one learns - is that markets *need* to run these harsh, *reset* events, much like happens in a cheap video game, (and in pinballs games, which were the electro-tech gaming model before the computer).    You get a BING, BING, BING --- WHOOP - WHOOP - WHOOP kind of thing, which causes all the counters to be reset to zero.  Japan and Germany went thru this at the end of the Second World War, as did China.  (Russia endured this reset in 1917, and also at the collapse of the bankrupt (both morally and financially) Soviet Union, in the early 1990's).  England endured it during the time of Cromwell, and the Restoration, and France, during the time of the horrific "French Revolution" and the rise of Napoleon.  And for America - it was of course the breaking-free from the chains of English aristocratic foolishness - and their own Revolution, in which a diverse people successfully reset themselves to what they felt they wanted to be.   This is - of course - why America was and is so crazy successful.   They don't get reset by events - they reset themselves, harsh and cruel as it sometimes needs to be.

A rational student of history can say:  "Reset Events Happen."

And of now?   What about now?    All my research suggests:  "Big Global Reset" is about due.   It won't be a virus.  It won't likely be a nuclear war (it might be - but we doubt it... very very low probability event, we think), and it won't be space aliens arriving in a "first-contact" scenario (also a very, very low probability).  A "First Contact" scenario would be a lot of fun, but a nuclear war, not so much.   With radiation sickness, your hair falls out, an you vomit up all your food, and then dehydrate... and that's if you don't get caught in the resulting fire-storm.   And we have already had the Virus Plague, Version 1.0.    Maybe we get another major mutation, and a much more immediately lethal airborne virus - but we doubt this also.

So, for now, the next major "reset event" remains part of the unknown unknowns.  

If Putin is sufficiently stupid as to provoke and initiate the Third World War (which may actually be fought with electronic, targeted, yet "conventional" non-nuclear weapons), that might qualify, as it will be associated with a global collapse in trade and economic prosperity.   An effective way to stop an army, is to poison the soldier's food and water supply, make their weapons stop working,  render all their political and military leaders non-operative, and to treat those who surrender with respect, offering them comfort, good food, and safety.   

Starting an un-needed war so some Fat, Goose-Faced Pricks can live in large mansions watching strippers and drinking French brandy, while you sit in a muddy foxhole eating shit mixed with poison, is a bad plan for the Goose-Faced boys, and a really bad lifechoice for the poor fool soldiers.  It also raises the "risk of reset" for all concerned.

I always recall the words of the captured Revolutionary Leader, who was asked where he would get his army.  He looked at the General, and said simply:  "Why, I shall use your's, of course!" 

So, we know the Big Reset is coming.   We just don't know how and where it will begin - or even what it will look like.   But history teaches us it is looming up ahead, even if we cannot see it clearly yet.

[ Feb. 08, 2022 ] - Mourning Has Broken - Always best to let the Market itself set the theory, and not try to impose your theory on the Market.  Hard lesson that must be learned again and again.  Big shifts are underway, and big sh/t is happening.   The USA Government seems to be imploding, but we suspect this might be a good thing.  We want American to survive and be strong, and remain free.  For that to happen, the wuckfits currently in charge, must go down in flames.   This appears to be taking place, and so perhaps all is good and fine.

That seems to be what Mr. Market is saying.  Perhaps he is right.   (He usually is....)

[ Feb. 07, 2022 ] - Parallel Times (Game On) - "It's 11:59, and I want to stay alive."  (says the Bull Market...)    But nothing lives forever.    I have a complete scenario in which it all runs in reverse.  Not sure if this will really happen, but it most certainly looks possible.   The thing about Bear Market process, is that it seems to happen faster.  FInancial "bubbles' do not tend to deflate slowly - which is why we call them "Bubbles".  The idea of a "soft landing" is attractive, and perhaps it can be engineered. 

But historically, the market does a very good job of creating "reset events".   We have a whole little picture that suggests we need one of these now, as the alternative will be a runaway inflation which will cause much greater suffering further down the line, than a 20% downturn will now.   But of course, it may be more than a 20% downturn.

What concerns us most, is the extreme lack of wisdom, that we see everywhere, evident in every political process, in every national entity now.   It is curious and surprising, as if madness was being spread like a virus.  Perhaps?...     I found a copy of the 1959 film "On the Beach", and screened it on the weekend.  It is based on the Nevil Shute book, by the same name.  Highly recommended, despite its false scientific premise  ( An accidental global nuclear war creates a lethal radioactive cloud that does not decay, and slowly drifts down into the southern hemisphere, with South Australia the last place to expire.   Really a well done film, by director-producer Stanley Kramer.)  

The world ends by virtue of an automatic accident, driven by unwise political and military silly action and rapid-response pre-programming.     The only thing one can really do, is buy a Ferrari, and try to race it.  :)

The Game?

I've been re-reading a bunch of books in my little Library.  Some of them are timeless classics - and they have the singular attraction, in that they can help one make money.   How good is that?  (Hint: The answer is: Pretty fucking sweet, actually.  Learning - and winning - combined together, are fine and good things.   I think this might be why successful people deliberately self-destruct.  They can then have the excitement and pleasure of re-building, phoenix-like, from their horrific failure.  Unless they do a  "Hilter in the Bunker", and bring a complete Gotterdamerung down upon themselves, of course...)

I've re-read "The Zurich Axioms" again.  Highly recommended (secret advice: don't buy my book, if you can find a copy of this gem.  My book is way too expensive.)

Also, I am re-reading "The Money Game" by "Adam Smith" (a pseudonym of course).  It was written in the "Go-Go!" 1960's, a time of great exurberance, which was actually quite rational.  The stock market was flying.   Computers were becoming cheap enough so that schools and businesses could afford them, and scientists and statistical researchers and market-hackers could get time on IBM 360's and run programs to do amazing, clever things.  And they did.  

In the 1960's, with just drafting tables and slide-rules, the Americans built spaceships that could fly men to the Moon, land them there, and then return them safely to the Homeworld.   That was - truly - one hell of an accomplishment.   The technology was just *flying*.    And so was the stock market.    But the insane Vietnam war required Nixon to take USA off (completely) of any connection to the "gold standard".   This happened in 1971, as I recall.   The US dollar was no longer backed by anything at all - except the USA itself.  It was the USA's version of the "Rentenmark".   So it goes (or so it went...)   By the 1970's, the inflation began, and it just grew and grew.  It was ended with 20% short-term interest-rates, in 1980, by Mr. Paul Volker, chairman of the USA central bank, the Federal Reserve.  Those 20% rates (and much higher, for many borrowers), wiped out many businesses, and brought Ron Reagan to power as USA President.   The stupid-years of Jimmy Carter (and Pierre Trudeau in Canada) with gas-lines and price-controls and 20% annual inflation were over.  But it took real economic pain to make it happen, and clean up the hot mess the Leftists had created.

Note: In the 1970's, the USA stock market was dumpster diving.  The DJIA wandered between 1000 and the 600's.   If you *deflate* the stock prices, the 1970's was actually a spectacular market crash - but only in *real* dollar values.   It was pretty weirdly awful.   I was there, and it was a *lot* like the Great Depression.   If you graduated from University in 1969, the big companies and governments had recruiting booths at the University graduation ceremony.   Everyone was desperate to hire grads.  By 1978, if you graduated University then, (like me) you literally could not find any job without massive bush-beating and hard-core searching.   It was tragic-comical in the extreme - but a damn good start to one's real education!  

I had to move to another city, and got a junior-clerk-economist-programmer job for $800/month, and I thought I had died and gone to heaven.  So much money!!   Seriously, the 1970's were a lot like the 1930's, if you were coming out of school back then.   Inflation just kills economic growth & investment, and distorts the labour-market all to hell... at least it sure did in Canada.  It was just a shitshow of errors by policy-makers.   But the Big Reset in 1980-81 saved the world, I suspect.

So, in "Adam Smith's - The Money Game", I found this great paragraph, in his chapter about "Random Walks"  (which is really well written, and quite witty & amusing):

"If the Market is truly a Game, it would be possible to have the Game without any intrinsic values at all.  If part of the Game is that Bishop Berkeley's tree is down when everyone decides it is down, then there need not even be a tree.  If printers will print stock certificates, the New York Stock Exchange will stay open, and the banks will print out occasional dividends, we can have the whole Game even though all the steel plants and warehouses and railroads have mysteriously disappeared, as long as no one knows they have disappeared."

Well, how about that?   The chapter is called "What the Hell is a Random Walk".  Find the above paragraph, and then read the one after it - which is even more educational.  And true.  

It seems this quote about the "Game" pretty much describes "crypto-currencies", such as Bitcoin, yes?   Bitcoin is now an "asset class", right up there with "government bonds"  (another useless, and quite possibly fictional thing, right?)

We are in La-La Land now, people.   Seriously.  It is all Game now.   And I am really *wondering* just how the Game will Stop.   Nothing lasts forever, right?   :/   (<-- ascii frowny face indicating concern...)

Mr. O'Neill Tells Some Truth:

Most "news" information everywhere now is poop.   It's getting quite curious - yet every so often, some old guy tells the truth, because he is at the end of his career, has enough "fuckyou" money, and is also near the end of his life.  I think this Mr. O'Neill might fall into this catagory.  He was Chief Economist at Goldman Sachs and was also a Minister of the Crown, in the U.K.   Boomerberg has him quoted as saying:  Officials at Central Banks, specifically the Bank of England,  "don't have the slightest idea what has really happened or what is going on" with the surging inflation.    Well, Hell's Bells!   About time someone said this.   It's what I have been thinking for several months now.  I am unique - in that I studied inflation seriously in school, wrote papers on Nixon's failed price-control efforts, studied the German inflation in 1920 to 1923, and then actually worked as an Anti-Inflation Economic Cop.  Really.   I actually know quite a lot about this nutty problem.   I know how it starts, how and why it gets going, and what has to be done (quickly) to stop it. 

I worked as a Juniour G-Man at the "Anti-Inflation Board" in Canada in 1976 - the insane Price and Wage and Income control program set up by Pierre Trudeau to "address the Inflation Problem in Canada".  It was bloody great to have a real job, even if it was just a summer-job.   I really needed the money.  Why?  Because I had none!  So, I joined the Law, and the Law won, but so did I!

I learned how to be an effective consultant (since I was the only one who could get the APL terminals working, set up accounts with a computer service bureau, get the taxpayer data (anonymized) as tapes from Revenue Canada, get them read using my APL workspaces at IST, and truly *see* what was actually happening to price and incomes of professionals in Canadian cities.)    It honestly was a wonderful first job, even if the whole idea was quite insane and unworkable.   You can learn a *lot* trying to do something that is basically impossible - ie. control other people's prices and incomes.  It was just economic insanity - and most employees knew this - but we had real jobs in a bitched economy, and having an income was great, since it meant I could fund more schooling, which was showing evidence of paying off nicely, even before it was completed!   And I learned what caused inflation (too much non-productive spending, too much non-productive money floating around, and bad, bad, not-good government policy.)   And I also learned that price-controls are the dumbest idea ever invented.   This knowledge has been valuable and actionable.  

Anyway - bravo to Mr. O'Neill.   I think he is spot-on in his analysis.   Here is link:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-07/jim-o-neill-says-the-boe-is-raising-rates-to-save-credibility?smd=markets-vp

[ Feb. 05, 2022 ] - Chev Brakes are Snarling - "As you stumble across the road, but the day breaks instead, so you hurry home..."  

I think this really might be the Great Bubble, but I could be wrong.  Anyone remember Drexel Burnham Lambert?  How about Birnam Forest, from Macbeth? 

There is a thing from Shakespeare that I have to find - my mom used to quote it.  She grew up in an era of extremely high quality education, in Ontario.  It was really good - I know, because I have her old textbooks, and they are astonishingly well written.  (Let's try Google... and bingo, found it.  "Macbeth.  Act V, scene 3, in Dunsinane Castle:  Macbeth is muttering to himself, before the Doctor enters...)

"I have lived long enough: my way of life
Is fall'n into the sear, the yellow leaf;
And that which should accompany old age,
As honour, love, obedience, troops of friends,
I must not look to have; but, in their stead,
Curses, not loud but deep, mouth-honour, breath,
Which the poor heart would fain deny, and dare not.  "

Honestly, we have lost so much, people just have no idea.  Kids studied this stuff in High School.   They learned Ancient History, English history, European history, studied Latin, read Julius Caesar in his own Latin:  The "Bellus Gallica" - or "Wars in Gaul".  Great stuff.  I have her 1939 Grade 13 Physics textbook, and it is just a well done piece of work.  The 1930's in North America, were probably the most significant, successful time of human scientific and engineering development of all time - quite surprising.   The Great Depression might actually have been a curiously good thing, which is hard to believe or accept.  But it might be true, nevertheless.. 

We live in a world now, where debt-driven financial puff-bubbles are not allowed to be deflated.  This has brought some benefit (and really wild benefits to a few folks), but perhaps it has cost us honest progress, and what could have been a better future.  

The world seems to be running on a dangerous mixture of high levels of ever-growing debt and hard-core deception.   Borrowed-money and lies - the fuel we will run on when the oil runs out and the grid goes dark.  :)

[ Feb. 04, 2022 ] - Greek Whine - I made a comment about "gamma hedging" which was unclear.  The "Delta" of an Option contract is the rate of change of the option contract price, based on a change in the price of the underlying security price the option is written on.  The "Gamma" is the rate of change of the Delta, based on change in the underlying security price.   Option contract sellers (writers of Put and Call options), will make buy and sell transactions in the underlying securities (the shares themselves, in the case of stock options),  to hedge their risk of being on the wrong side of a big move in share prices.   This "delta hedging" and "gamma hedging" is thought to make the market price for shares more volatile - which itself will affect the underlying delta and gamma values.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/greeks.asp

Systems which are gated and controlled by feedback mechanisms - based on parameters that are a direct result of system operation - are subject to uncontrolled, self-re-enforcing, violent oscillations.   Minor errors in control settings can lead to oscillations which can destroy the system.   

People are not completely stupid.  If all the pros are market-hacking so as to try to lay-off risk on someone else, so they can make easy, low-risk money, the market will become "tired", and this becomes evident in the drying-up of liquidity.    No one wants to play in a casino where only the employees can make money.  

PKO and Dark Pools:   (Ontario Whine)

Let me be clear - all this is just speculation.  We (& I, myself) have no direct knowledge of exactly what is happening now.  But my sense is, is that "Price Keeping Operations" are now in serious, active use, (especially in small, easy-to-hack markets like Canada), and the existence of the various "Dark Pool" exchanges (where market price depth and action cannot be observed) are making the marketplace environment very curious - some might even say dangerous.

It appears that for some big stocks trading in Canada, the prices are not really being set by market forces.   And this is, of course, the way the big boys want it to be.     The women at OSC (it is all women, now, in all these little ABC's - Agencies, Boards and Commissions (basically patronage appointments as pay-off for Party activity)) - have no clue just how serious a problem this is.

What results from this kind of play, is that by successfully keeping market-forces at bay (on Bay Street..), the action-responses by market forces that do finally take place, are *MUCH BIGGER* and more non-linear, than would otherwise be the case, if the old TSE (Toronto Stock Exchange) was actually being used for price-discovery action. 

As a far-outside "retail trader", we have virtually no window at all, on what is really happening.  It's quite comical.   We are flying blind, really.   What we can determine, by watching the strange price action we see, is that somewhere else, is where the real action is taking place.    Of course, I cannot prove this, or even offer hard evidence.   It just feels that way.

What I can say, is that the price-action data that I can see during the day - just looks completely bogus.   It does not look like people are involved, (of course, algorithmic-driven computerized trading can explain this), and even more so, it appears that the real action is taking place somewhere else, and that the TSX quotes are reflecting this post-hoc (after the fact).    Of course, this is not a new phenomenon.  In the old days, it could 10 or 20 minutes, to get a valid quote from the NYSE, via telephone, from a broker.   There has always been "information confrontation" in the marketplace,   Money is made by the bogusization process... (is that a word?)

But it has become particularly evident now, given the PKO actions that the big players are able to use.   And I notice this (of course), since it has effectively impacted our little "stat arb" business.

A little market rhyme:  "Balls to yer partner, Asses to the wall.  If you don't get fucked on a Saturday nite, ya won't get fucked at all!"   (Except unless you are a retail trader in Canada...)   :)

[ Feb 03, 2022 ] - Shock the Monkey - Strange times - market is weak today, indexes all down, but the financials are like girls, with fingers in their ears and their eyes closed, singing: "La La La La ... LA - I *can't* hear you!"

Bank shares are interesting, in that they trade a lot like very long duration bonds - like the old 100-year railroad bonds, that were considered such sound investments - before the automobile made railroads such a different business.   Values of Bank stocks are driven by net interest margins, people-costs, growth prospects, and so on. And also by the interest-rate environment - higher rates means more loan revenue, but also higher costs for money raised by equity and bond sales.  It's the margin that matters, like in most business models, not the absolute levels of things.  Except for the collateral.  Bank stocks mostly are given intrinsic value, based on the total value of the underlying assets they have recourse to, if loans are defaulted upon.  Bank fnancials are curious, since the bank's "assets" are it's loans and the financial paper it holds (which themselves are just IOU's), and their "liabilities" are the cash that is has taken in on deposit from depositors.   The whole business model lives and dies on the results of what are hopefully the successful management of the asset and liability values.  

Loan quality is critical.  The bank wants regular payments to be made.  And it needs to have some assurance that money loaned can be paid back by whomever it is loaned to.  The bank usually has - for significantly large loans - some legal recourse to the title of the property, that a borrower uses the money to purchase - a car, a house, a business, a commercial property, and financial paper, such as shares or bonds or future's contracts, and such.

Banks get in trouble, when they loan too much, to too few, and defaults start to happen.   But defaulted loans are manageable, if the bank has been clever about obtaining collateral.

And so here is what is interesting:  Ultimately, the value of a money-loaning institution is baseline valued by the value of the collateral it is holding, to secure it's loans.  If you buy a house for 300,000 dollars, and get a 200,000 mortgage from the bank (a long term loan), your house is the security for the loan, and the bank has recourse to your house (they can take ownership and sell the house to recover the money they loaned), if you bugger off, and don't pay your mortgage.   If the market value of your house falls to 100,000 dollars, both you and the bank have a problem.  This is what happened to houses in the USA, back in 2006 to 2009 - the "financial crisis" which was really a fraud-crisis in house-price valuation and loan "hacking" to create synthetic loan-types with various risk levels (*and yields*), which could be packeged and sold as bonds, to get the risk off the bank's books.  Except it all went wrong, when it became clear the models used to estimate risk-features were bogus, because they made silly assumptions about human and market behaviour.   (Blah blah blah .... right?)

Much of a bank's intrinsic value (and hence the worth and value of it's share price), is determined by the quality of the collateral back-stopping the loans.  If your 300,000 dollar example house, with the $200,000 mortgage becomes worth $1,000,000 (which is pretty much what has happened now in Canada housing markets), then the bank stock prices can be expected to rise, since the mortgage loans are backstopped by *lots and lots* of extra collateral.  And of course, this same process is at work in the commercial loan market.  As business conditions improve, the business-loans are safer, and bank profits are more certain to occur, and default risk falls.   Everyone benefits.

But the bank equity is still risky, since if the interest-rate environment changes, and maybe changes a bit too fast, *ALL* the collateral asset values can shift downwards pretty quickly.  This is what caused the early 2020 collapse in bank share prices - the pandemic was expected to kill the economy (it didn't), and the asset values of all that bank collateral - houses, business, financial paper, etc. was expected to collapse (it didn't also).  The money taps were turned on, and for most folks (not us), money flowed to keep things ticking along.   We all survived nicely.

And so right now, everything looks really, *really* good for the banks.   But if some global event happens - an event that affects everyone and all valuations - such as a big inflation (which messes up so much), or sharply rising interest-rates, or a minor stock-market downturn, things can run quickly in reverse.  And everyone knows this.   Rising interest rates might seriously impact both house-price values, and business-valuations, and this in turn reduces - maybe a lot - the value the bank loan collateral, which makes the bank loans (the bank's assets) a LOT more risky.  We are concerned that ANY rise in interest rates, which is enough to impact and reduce inflation, will ALSO almost certainly begin a revaluation in collateral economic-values, especially house prices.    The average price - and I mean the AVERAGE selling price of a residential house in the small urban area near where we live, has now moved ABOVE 1 million Canadian dollars.   

This seems extreme and a bit crazy to us.  Of course the bank stocks are up, and the banks are very profitable - right now. 

But if interest rates are raised enough to stop the runaway inflation that is already happening, we can almost certainly expect to see the house price changes start to run in reverse.   Even very minor interest-rate increases (which will have to happen soon to limit the inflationary spiral that is starting), will have significant impact.   It all might unwind *very* quickly.  This is usually how it happens, if one looks thru history.   These financial bubbles do not tend to burst slowly.

By the summer months, it would not be unreasonable to see house prices down by 15% to 20%.  It won't be a "housing crisis", but it might knock the Canadian bank stock prices down 20% or maybe even more, given just how much those equity values typically move during periods of "interest-rate shock".

It takes very little change in the interest-rate environment, to shock those Bank Stock monkeys.

War News:   "False Flag" attacks planned by Russia, "Information Confrontation" (Fake Videos) Planned to be Used to Mislead Russian People to Create War Support

https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/russia-ukraine-u-s-intelligence/2022/02/03/id/1055377/

Jesus Christ, "False Flag Attack" scams?  Like in Poland, as was done in Danzig (Gdansk) to start World War 2?   Is El Presidente Putinski going full Adolf?   What the hell is going wrong with Russia?   Why are they going so wildly and completely off the rails?   They seem determined to self-destruct, along with that murderous psychopath Lukashenko of Belarus.    The only thing these guys know how to do, is to hurt, abuse, kill, cheat and do aircraft hi-jackings, it seems.    They think they are being so clever with their spy-toads running around killing and kidnapping people, and faking up these ugly, vicious phony spy tricks.   

Honestly and truly, if Putin and Lukashenko invade Ukraine, we should rain devices down on where ever Putin and Lukashenko are located.  These two thugs could then play their fucking war games in Hell, and we will have also solved the problems to two abused nations. 

[ Feb. 02, 2022 ] -  Silly Times

We posted the current AI C_machine forecast, in the "Trading Notes" section.  We unloaded the trading portfolio positions today.  Risk-off.  Market looks serious stretched, the world is preparing for war (really, it is, even if you just don't see it all yet.)   Putin is of course, telling silly lies, in the old KGB "Information Confrontation" model context.  That man is going to get his head handed to him - not by Free World forces - but probably by wise and rational Russians.   Not everyone in that nation is a toady.  There are some very good people in Russia - and they are not *all* in prison.)

But ugly and foolish conflict seems to be the programmed project for the dictators of the world.  They see a weak and conflicted USA, and they see this as a chance to act.  This is why the USA should not mess around with it's voting process, and make their elections even more fakery and fraud exercises.   The "Democrats" are trying to fake-up the election process - and call it "Voter's Rights."    They are lying - and so are the journalists - and everyone knows this. 

The integrity of America is critical to the peace of the world, and the integrity of American politics rests firmly on the integrity of it's honest, fair, and proven, true democratic process.  "Mail-In" voting, verified only by a scribbled signature - is just ballot-box stuffing.  Do not be misled by the fraud Biden and his people are promoting. 

We despair at times, at the extreme foolish insanity that seems to characterize modern political process.  We are in for a "life during wartime" lifestyle - but again, most folks have no clue just how completely and utterly fouled up are the brains of the "leaders" who are going to allow so much unnecessary economic destruction to take place.

Our current political process model seems to take the very worst people, who are the least qualified for their jobs, and put them into positions of great authority.  The only counter to this democratic model, is the military-managed, neo-fascist model of hellhole failure nations, like Belarus, Syria, North Korea and Afghanistan.   So we are stuck with democracy, as the least-awful political model.   What is disturbing, is to see the "Democratic Party" in the USA, try to assault and butcher traditional American governance systems and election procedures.   This is not good.

Nothing good at all can result from this idiotic exercise, and that "Great Failure", Joe Biden, and his curiously racist groups of "woke" henchmen (and henchwomen!), yet seem determined to proceed with their foolish, destructive strategies.   Obviously, like the Liberals here in Canada, they are seeking to mask their bad actions with the Covid-19 pandemic crisis.  Every nation seems to be taking advantage of the pain and suffering of it's people, to further entrench the centralization of abusive political power - and place it in the hands of dishonest lightweights.   (History shows this to be a sadly successful model. It works so very well for clever, bad people.)

FD:  We feel that most of this action is - honestly, really and truly - quite market negative.  Actions are being taken everywhere - by so many political opportunists and pocket-fillers - to degrade wise process and the historically verified political and economic procedures.

We need to change the bad players on the stage, not burn down the whole playhouse.  

[ Feb. 01, 2022 ] - Is it the Failure of History, or the History of Failure? - We read the increasingly strange and disturbing news from the USA, and other areas, and find it scary.  The Supreme Court of America is to become a racist laughingstock, it seems.  A large, black vagina will be seated as a Judge.  Biden has promised to appoint a negro female to be a top court judge.  Those are the stated qualifications.    It seems curious that such an overt example of racist action can be made to occur in a nation which seeks to avoid racist actions on the part of it's government authorities.   Joe Biden appears to be the worst example of a President we have ever observed. 

He is truly and without question, a "sock-puppet" of dark forces.

Justice - and judges - should be "colour blind" - and not be expected to make decisions based on racial preference.   Decisions made based on racial preference are racist.  There is no other rational way to view this.  It is best, if governments avoid explicit racist policy actions.  

War News: (from 1936)

It is very instructional, and enlightening, to read the actual speech that Ethiopian leader, Haile Selassie (aka "Ras Tafari") made to the "League of Nations" in June of 1936.  He was asking the League (52 nations) to honour collective security committments made and to act against the extreme aggression that the Italian Fascist Government had taken against Ethiopia.  The speech is short, sharp and prophetic, and Selassie's warning to the world is as clear now, as it was then:  If powerful nations are allowed to use military means to invade and crush smaller nations, then all nations are at risk, and war must result.

https://www.mtholyoke.edu/acad/intrel/selassie.htm

History has shown us clearly, that a "League of Nations" that does not have the means to send in the bombers, and take direct action against aggressor entities, is little more than a political cover mechanism, designed to create a grand illusion that can mask and facilitate invasion plans and military conquest.   Politicians can talk and talk, and treaties can be signed, but if there are not clear provisions for the bombers to be sent in against the invading gangster-army, the entire political talking process is just a great fraud.

The tragic costs of "President" Biden's horrific Afghanistan withdrawal continue to grow.  It's graphic depiction of the collapse and failure of American military power, has emboldened the militarists and bad-guy governments all over our small planet.   

The failure of the old League of Nations to act, so carefully described by Haile Selassie so long ago, mirrors in history the failures of our present-day "United Nations", now that America has withdrawn from the world, and seems intent on inverting and perverting all that it has historically stood for.   Nothing really changes, we are so often reminded.

Our models suggest, that as America fights with itself, and an unwise USA Government seeks to overturn it's own wisely crafted old rules and procedures, it can be expected that similar levels of conquest-conflict and rule-breaking will be manifest in the world at large.    And indeed, evidence suggests this is happening almost everywhere now. 

The Bad Guys are marching their soldiers, expanding their Armies of Conquest, and crushing any of their own citizens who oppose their plans of domination & conquest.  

The outcome of all this, is not difficult to predict. 

Market Notes:

Have you noticed that the stock market is very squirrelly lately?   It's acting nutty, and a reason has been supplied by analysts Rocky Fishman at Goldman Sachs and Marko Kolanovic at JP Morgan.  Briefly, they are pointing out that options writers are negative "gamma', which means that the fatboys writing the hedging contracts (ie. they are selling puts and calls) are having to buy into rising markets, and sell into falling markets - and this (along with traders using simple but effective trend-following models) will obviously stimulate market volatility.

Here is the note (on BBN-B-berg for those without Booperberg subscriptions...)

https://ampvideo.bnnbloomberg.ca/stock-market-chaos-revved-up-by-options-dealers-rushing-to-hedge-1.1716279.amp.html

This makes sense.  Liquidity does seem off.  Everyone is trying to use their mega-giant-all-the-data-there-is datasets to game the system, and *everyone else* knows this.  It makes for a kind of truly crazy market, characterized by low willingness to trade, and self-accelerating moves in prices.   ("Gamma", one of the option-pricing model's parameters, is a measure of the sensitivity of the option price to changes in the price of the underlying stock, or whatever market-priced financial asset you have the put or call option upon.  The premium or price of the option will be higher, if the stock that the option is written on, bounces around a lot. )

Option "dealers" or writers of option contracts - which are often purchased by portfolio holders to hedge big changes in portfolio prices - themselves need to hedge, and they do this by buying or selling amounts of the underlying stocks they are writing their puts or calls upon.

What seems to be happening now - is that liquidity is shrinking or kind of going away, as folks are reluctant to take positions in violently swinging markets, and at the same time, the more the market swings wildly, the more the options dealers who wish to hedge, have to trade with the trend, and this of course, will amplify the swings.  And the wilder the swings, the less likely will be market liquidity and market depth.

"No shit, Sherlock.." is kind of my reaction.  I have watched a low-beta testbed thing that we mess around with (and also hold in a portfolio) swing violently in the last four weeks.  We remain constructive and fully, all-in long, since there is just too much cash sloshing around in the system, as near as I can tell.  (I am way, way outside of everything, understand.  I may as well be on Mars.  I have only "outside" information.  :D )  We've learned it's dangerous to be out of the market.

I am seeing a curiously twitchy and violent market, which I had assumed was mostly just the front-running circus.   Or maybe bad data?   It just seems to be wrong.  The prices are just WRONG half the time, and it is weird.  If I was a kid, in the city, I would be trading fast against this weirdness, but we are old now, and very cautious, and mostly don't even use margin.

The key takeaway here, is that attempts by the pros to lay off market risk, seems to be increasing market risk - at least as so much as risk is correlated with volatility.  (I feel sometimes like Kurtz in "Apocolypse Now": ... "We must learn to make a friend of risk.")     We try to make a friend of volatility.   But it's still more like a frenemy, than a true friend...   Crazy world now, arimasu.

What we seem to have learned, is that it is most risky to lose one's position in an inflationary economy.  Like some people we knew many years ago, who sold their house for $500,000, which seemed a King's ransom, back then.  I told the woman to re-position right way, and not wait for lower prices, but she and her husband decided to rent, and wait for prices to fall.  The house they sold, is now worth maybe $1,500,000 or more (a nice place in the country).   By exiting the market, they gave up a tax-free gain of roughly 1 million dollars - and chose instead to fatten the pockets of some landlord person.

You have to learn to love volatility, and realize that whatever number you see quoted - that number is wrong.  And yet, like the mythical quantum cat in the box, the number is also right.  The wave function only collapses (and you know what the true price is), when you take action to sell the stock.

[ Jan. 31, 2022 ] - Sing a Song of Sixpence - And a pocket full of rye?  Whatever.  The Earth spins, the seasons change, and who can truly know why.    We are currently, delighted by randomness.  God does not roll dice, of course.  We are certain now, that god "IS" the rolling dice.   Many people reject randomness, and/or fail to see it's perfect, divine beauty.   What so many sad, simple people fail to see, is that they won the biggest celestial lottery of all time, just by being born.    

The news today indicates that the curious lad we have as our PM here in Canada, has Covid-19, despite being multiply-vaccinated.   We ourselves have been double vaccinated, and have being trying to arrange for the "booster" shots, but so far, no luck.   We've gotten on a list to get on a list at our local pharmacy, but nothing so far.   As mentioned, my living family members have all contracted Omicron Covid, and were quite sick, but appear now to have recovered.  I suspect we had the thing probably back in November, when we both thought we had colds.  Folks in cities get testing kits.  Folks in the country - we get immunity.   The word "immunity" comes from the Latin word "munus", which according to my Oxford Dictionary, means "public burden".   Oh my, but nothing really changes, does it?   :D    

https://www.news24.com/news24/World/News/canadas-justin-trudeau-says-tests-positive-for-covid-19-20220131 

We wish Mr. Trudeau a speedy recovery.  And we hope he can soon resume his teaching duties, once this astonishing period of foolishness comes to an end.    :)

War News:

Why are the nations of the Free World, and the United Nations in particular, not assisting the People's Defense Forces in Myanmar, in their fight against the brutal, sadistic military-Fascist regime that has deposed the elected leader of that nation, and plunged that nation into terrorist horror?  It is curious just how worthless and non-effective the United Nations has now become.

It so reminds us of our historical studies of Ethiopia, and how it was overrun by Italian Fascists in the 1930's.   Ras Taferi, (also known as: Haile Selassie) the Ethiopian King, spoke at the League of Nations in June of 1936, and forcast the future, when he said that if his nation was allowed to be overrun by an invading fascist military force, then the conflict would spread to other nations, and affect the whole world..  He said basically:  "It is us today, it will be you tomorrow, if you do not act to stop this."   When he rose to speak at the political forum known as the "League of Nations", he was hooted and jeered by Italian Fascist journalists.  (Yes, some journalists often *are* the lowest form of human life on this planet, it seems.  Little ever really changes.)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2BiAduMYj-0

Ethiopia in 1937 is like Myanmar in 2022.   It basically does not matter geopolitically - no oil, no nuclear weapons, etc.  So, a terrible crime is ignored and accepted by an indifferent world.  But this failure to act, will cost us all.  

The fascist regime that has taken power in Myanmar, and now engages in systematic murder of it's own people, is able to violate all laws and norms of civilized society, and no one cares enough to send in the bombers.  This, we feel, is a great error.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-60144957

We suspect a low-cost campaign of arming the resistance forces, and selectively bombing the military installations that support the fascist junta-government might yield significant, positive results, and would send clear messages to other thug-dictators that civil society cannot simply be overwritten by a small group of military gangsters & political criminals.   

The citizens of Myanmar have no choice, but to resist the brutal thug gangsters that have siezed power in their country.  When I see the BBC photos of the young kids, using home-made bamboo firearms, against the Chinese-supplied weapons the fascist Myanmar military has, it is just heartbreaking.   The price of freedom has always been blood.  But must every nation endure a cruel civil war, before it learns to protect itself from it's own murderous political gangsters? 

I would urge - as an old historian - that the kids in Myanmar, fighting the sadistic thug military of Myanmar, use some old tricks from the Spanish Civil War.  Take a razor blade, and break it in half, and tape the piece behind your ear.  It's purpose is to use it to cut your own carotid artery in your neck, if you are overrun, and certain to be captured.  There is one artery on each side of the neck:

https://medlineplus.gov/ency/imagepages/9552.htm

https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/neuroscience/external-carotid-artery 

The fighters in the Spanish Civil War took particular care to ensure that  they would not fall into the hands of the Fascist Government soldiers, while alive, for obvious reasons.   The young Freedom Fighters in Myanmar should probably consider taking similar precautions.  They are on a long, hard road, and we wish them luck and good fortune and of course, ultimate victory.

[ Jan 28, 2022 ] - The Highways of Death - But even if we cannot deploy nuclear weapons to Ukraine, perhaps we can at least use the modern A-10 "Warthog" units & J-STARS technology, to give the Russian invaders a taste of what the Iraqi rapists and thieves who stormed Kuwait in 1991 got.    The famous (and truly wonderful example) is the "Highway of Death" that was visited upon the murderous, criminal forces of Saddam Hussein's goons, as they tried to leave Kuwait with all the stolen property.  It stands out in history, as the most perfect example of what should happen to an invading thug army.

https://forums.spacebattles.com/threads/iraqi-forces-were-annihilated-while-retreating-on-the-highway-of-death-25-years-ago.374029/

It really was a fine, successful deployment of the right technology at the right place, in the right way, at the right time.  It was a justified military exercise, and Biden should simply explain that this technology will be directed against the New Russian Threat invaders, if they move into Ukraine.   Take a closer look, here:

https://www.amusingplanet.com/2016/05/the-highway-of-death.html

Putin is acting unwise and almost insane.  He will just be handing his soldiers a lot of destruction and death.  He's behaving like some spoiled Russian woman, and he should get a close look at what war really looks like, before he decides to start one.  He might start it, but it will be Free World Forces that will have to finish it.  We will have to knock him off his golden toilet,   And then again, we will see Russia be plunged into chaos, conflict and poverty.  And for what?  So Putin can have more golden toilets?   The Russian people should see where the threat they are facing is coming from - not from outside their nation, but from within.

One has to be clear, when communicating with bad guys.  It is tragic that Putin has dragged his nation down in this manner.  We now fully have the technology to solve these kinds of problems caused by meglomaniac "leaders" who enable the actions of thieves and political gangsters. 

What we need here and now in the Free World, is the firm political will to deploy the necessary technical methods to address the problem, and stop political gangsterism.   The best way to deal with a Terror Army is to destroy it so completely, that it can never again be used to threaten anyone, anywhere, ever again.

[ Jan 27, 2022 ] - Life During Wartime - Russia seems to really want to have a war.   Putin has lost any sense of discretion or perspective, and basically, we - all of us - have a serious problem now.   The Russians do not grasp how much North Americans indentify with the Ukrainians.  It's curious - I think of the number of Ukrainians I have met, worked with, and gotten to know socially.  There are a surprising number in this country, for many different reasons.  I even met a 90+ year old Stalinist, who tried to justify the mass-murder of the "Kulaks" - a Russian-language term for the over 1 million Ukrainian farmers who were systematically killed or starved to death, after their property was expropirated for Soviet "Collective Farms".  

I suppose we indentify with the Ukrainians because much of the province of Alberta was settled by them.   The place gets to be -40 celsius in the winter, and it seems only the Ukrainians could survive - and prosper - in that sort of climate.   And then, of course, oil was discovered, and everyone got rich.

What this aggression by Putin's Terror Army has demonstrated, is that a nation *must* have serious, extreme weapons to ensure it's defense.  Russia has something like 2200 tactical nuclear weapons, which it is able to deploy and threaten it's neighbours with.  The nation of Ukraine has **ZERO**.   They have none.   Nothing at all, do they have, that can counter this New Russian Threat.

This is simply madness.  The French and the British understand, and so do the Americans.  You must have a "Force de Frappe", as the French call it  or you will - with certainty, at some point in the future - be overrun by bandit entities that do have such weapons.

There is foolish nonsense talk, that suggests that certain weapons should be banned, because of their destructive characteristics.  Weapons are supposed to be destructive.  Such idiocy is simply crazy talk the unwise, the insane, or by dishonest fraudsters who seek political advantage.   They trade on the fear and lack-of-wisdom of the foolish common people (there are oh-so-many of those, are there not?), and this is tragic.

We could solve the Ukrainian problem in 12 hours, by deploying a whole series of non-mobile tactical nuclear devices.  They could be encased in large concrete bunkers, and deployed all along the border, and in major productive farming areas.   They would be stationary, and would pose no threat at all, to neighbouring nations.  But if the Homeland were invaded by hostile forces, they could be detonated, sequentially, along the pathways of any military assault.

The endgame would be - either peaceful co-existance with mutually beneficial trading relations - or THE ABSOLUTE CERTAINTY OF THE INVADER TRIGGERING A NUCLEAR HOLOCAUST.  What benefit then, would military conquest offer the murderous invader?  None at all.

What folks need to understand, is that it is exactly this model that prevented conflict between the major powers, since the last use of nuclear weapons on civilian targets, in Japan of 1945.  We have had peace and prosperity for over 60 years in the Free West - directly as a result of the major-powers having nuclear weapons.

With big nukes at your disposal - and the recognition that the other side also has these big weapons - a big war is CERTAIN to be a very, very bad trade, for each side.

This gave us peace and freedom, unlike the World has ever known in all it's earlier history.  

Arm the Ukrainians with real weapons, equivalent to what the New Russian Threat has, and call Putin's bluff.  If his goons are still willing to attack the citizens of Ukraine, then it's Dr. Strangelove time - with 100 percent certainty.  And that's the key.    Biden is an aging, Leftist fool, because he talks in terms of *costs*.   Putin and his gangster cronies need to understand that if they pull the trigger on a military invasion - if they try another 1956 in Hungary, or a 1968 in the Czech Republic, they will be "going nuclear", and the results will be mass destruction for everyone involved.  Only that level of certainty will ensure a lasting peace. 

[ Jan 26, 2022 ] - Fake Data Everywhere?  (And Omicron Everywhere...)- The data I am seeing from TSX (via some skanky IBM re-transmission thing, on the trading platform we use) looks fake.    I mean it is just fake - it does not look real.   The real market is soemwhere else, and we are being served this slightly-delayed, fake-style derivative stuff, that is designed to provoke action.   it's just wrong - like some kind of 19th century bucket-shop shit.   Seriously - it is weirdly kinky, and feels just fake.   Maybe it is technically not, but something is seriously wrong.

1/2 hour left in the day.  We remain all-in, long.  Insane, absurd, wild-arsed ride.  Gamestop would be better than most of the facking "blue chip" shit, it's just hilarious.   Our test-bed security (in which we pretend to be pseudo-specialists), is all over the freaking map today.  We don't watch CNN or the news-feeds during the day, so I don't know what the Washington monkeys said to each other - but we just expect the inflation will be allowed to run pretty hard, for quite a while, since that is the only rational option in the economic playbook.  Raising rates too quick here, could trigger a spectacular downturn, and even the folks that operate at the central banks must know this.   We have dialed back everything, except the long-position risk.  The AI is less wildly constructive, but there is just no option for a jump to 3% or 4%.    So, conditions remain super-easy, for 6 to 12 months.   But these "stop-gun runs" (see the ancient WSJ article "Gunning for Stops" if you can find it in the archive) will continue with aggression, since they are algo-triggered.  It's nuts.

Silly times.   And then a war.   Oh my.

Later the same day...: [ 10:00 PM update:]

Ok, So I repaired this 1927 regenerative receiver radio I have - a "DeForest - Crosley" - literally made in 1926 or 1927, all original, UV-201 4 triodes, and some really bright amplifing triode - not counting the diode tube in the power supply - and I was listening to a Toronto AM station - and I heard our Prime Minister annouce he is sending 60 Canadian soldiers to Ukraine, and has also loaned the Ukraine gov't somewhere around 100 million of our dollars, somthing like that.   So, I stand corrected, Canada is doing SOMETHING at least.   Sixty Canadians, vs 100,000 Russians... ok, sounds about right, makes for a fair fight... but still, maybe we could add a few more guys?  You know, ensure victory and all that?

Also, heard Tiff Macklem explain that at some point, there will be some interest rate up-moves,so that is good also.  Probably wise to move a tad slowly.    So, Ford is in his T-Model, and all is right with the World?   (Maybe....)

It's quite wonderful, actually using the old ancient radio, connected to a long-line antenna, to receive the news.   The internet has become horribly toxic, and so useless - it's quite comical, and almost "theatre of the absurd" kind of thing...   I suppose we are all waiting for Godot now.  ("Stupid son-of-a-btich", to use Biden's term...)     But nice we can actually get direct audio clips from the actual people themselves...   Certainly not possible on the internet anymore...    :)

[ Even later update:]  Oh hell.   My nephew called, and he and his wife and kids all got Covid.  They are recovering, and apparently doing ok (looks like it was Omicron, and in the throat, not deep in the lungs), so although they were sick for a few days (the younger kids apparently got more sick than the adults), but they are all now on the mend, and feeling much better.    They are outside of the City, up at the cottage.  They were all triple-vaccinated.   Looks like *everyone* will get the Omicron Covid variant.  They were pretty careful - but a virus is a virus.   Crazy times.

[ Jan. 25, 2022 ] - And Here Comes the FUN! - How much FUN can you stand?  I am finding the AI model works.  As the user, I am using it badly, for various reasons that are known to neural-researchers and behavioural economists.  But the AI thing I have built - after many, many experiments and outright failures - seems to capture the essense of things.  Just re-read Jesse Livermore's little monograph on how to trade int stocks.  Pivotal points are real, I am coming to believe.  He was a clever fellow, and a man of real honour.  Our world is very different now - but maybe not as different as it seems.

War with China and Russia would be *really* stupid, and yet it looks like it is likely to occur.  This is very curious.

[ Jan. 24, 2022 ] - Here Comes the SUN! - Oops, no, looks like we're wrong.  It's actually the flash from the air-burst fusion device...  expect the blast-front in a few more seconds, since light travels so much faster than sonic shock waves.  

US and UK have withdrawn non-essential embassy personel from Kiev.   Putin has no idea just what sort of an arrogant fool he is being.  Once this "mobilize for war" shit gets started, it gets really goddamn hard to stop.   If that money-spy guy had real brains, he would study the FIRST World War, and see how it basically started pretty much on automatic.  "Oh oh, crisis! Let's mobilize!"  The other side sees this, and says: "Hey, look!  Those guys are mobilizing, and calling up all their soldiers!  What should we do?  Well, we better at least mobilize also!"  This is how the "Great War" started.  It was very much, not-so-great.

The "Nuke'em Till They Glow" Problem:

Many planners have quietly suggested that a big, solid shooting war with Russia might be needed to fix the "Putin Problem", and perhaps we could enlist the assistance of the Russian people themselves.   (Do they really want to live as dominated near-slaves serving their "Glorious Leader", while living their grim, cold lives?  Maybe not.   Like the Chinese - who are probably ready to "Cull the Communists", and ensure that the future is healthy and free, and not tainted by lab-leaked, gain-of-function murder-the-world virus agents.   People are not always completely stupid - to paraphrase Mr. A. Lincoln )

This idea of a world run by abusive, dishonest "potentates" who run crooked courts and abuse, imprison and/or just kill their own people - maybe it is really, actually worth a good, solid nuclear war, to get rid of this stupid idea that bent, murderous meglomaniac "cult of personality" jerks who are poisoning our future with fear and toxic virus agents, can control and dictate the social actions of billions of people.    This whole model is just so wildly wrong, it *MUST* be ended, regardless of the cost.   Putin and Xi are threatening the future of the Free World.  This lethal partnership puts all of us at risk, and there is this view, that this serious risk needs to be effectively addressed.

This seems to be the clear ethic I am encountering, in my research.  To paraphrase what I have been reading:   (It goes something like this...)

---- the New, Modern 21st Century Diplomatic-Military Strategy: ---  (using plain-speak English)

"Fucking just nuke them!!  Let's fix this shit!  Let's Just Fucking Nuke Them, and solve the fucking problem!  Why the fuck not?  We need to do it now, while we still can.

Let's maybe GIVE WAR A CHANCE!, since this "peace" shit, with lethal virus crap, and giant fucking armies camped on the fucking border of the Free World - this is JUST FUCKING NOT ACCEPTABLE, and the vicious "leaders" who play these sort of shit-eating KGB Stalinistic nowyoudie games, should also maybe find themselves - in the last few nanoseconds of their abusive lives - looking on the tip of an incoming 20 megaton ballistic missle.

Let's KILL this threat, and let's do it NOW!

Why not?  This current world, run by liars, fraudsters, and Green Peace Nazi "woke" jerks who live only for abusive social-control and Epstein / Weinstein style sex-parties where they fuck underage kids - this kind of Leftist-sanctioned world-of-evil maybe should be blown completely to hell.   It is broken, wrong, and ugly, and it's source is KNOWN, isn't it."

---  End of paraphrased ethical/social commentary which we are discovering ---

This is how a curious number of people seem to feel now.   Except this sort of comment is of course, completely censored and restricted on all the administered social-media sites, so it simmers and bubbles below the surface.  (birds without wings, & greentext things...)  

Note:  We strongly favour the peaceful-trading model of civilization, not the warfare-kill model, and believe this extreme anger which we keep seeing, is not good.  Better we do not go down this path, of course.

Yet, what is *really* interesting - is that in our heart-of-hearts, in the hearts-of-darkness that are in every human soul - we are starting to find some serious agreement with these curious, violence-seeking ideas.  War works.  Victory works.  Freedom is non-negotiable.   Really bad people cannot be stopped or corrected by talking to them.  That is a true waste of time and effort.  Once this is learned, then different action is required.

True "Diplomacy" must be practiced with weapons, otherwise, it is just bad wind and the flapping of lips over pieholes.  It is just information confrontation - worse and less useless than even noise.  Take out your .45, cock the hammer, point it at the bad guy's head, and ask for his full attention.   Then, at least you might be able to effectively communicate.   This is what Vladimir is trying to do now.  Except he does not realize, there are 20 or 30 guns pointing at him, from the shadows and the sidelines, and every pointer has a very itchy trigger finger.   Everyone will lose, when this war starts.

We note that the German Minister of the Navy was just forced to resign, for making unwise and curiously mal-informed  comments about Putin and Russia.  And also that Germany has refused to send any military assistance to Ukraine, and has actively prevented other NATO nations (Estonia) from sending even small-arms (self-defensive weapons only - basically street-by-street fighting hardware ) to Ukraine.    This directly reminds me of Hitler's deal with Stalin - two ugly, rotton peas in the same pod, IMHO.    And like Mark Twain pointed out, history does not actually repeat, but it sort of rhymes (but in an ugly and tragic kind of way, yes?)

Canada is of course, not involved in anything, as we have what appears to be, a corrupt, dysfunctional woke-socialist (some say clearly: "neo-communist") government run by "Liberals".   Our nation is an embarrassment on the world-stage now, so we - sadly, despite having good quality armed-forces - are condemned to sit on the sidelines (again) and watch as the Ukrainian end-game tragedy plays out.

Perhaps Ukraine should create a "War-Freedom Theme Park", where people could pay money, bring their own weapons, and seek to end their days by trying to take down as many evil Russian thug invaders, before they are cut down.  It would - or could - be like selling entrance tickets to Valhalla.   Each guy (or even gal?) could get a chance to die in an honorable battle, on his or her feet, instead of in some nasty hospital virus-ward, wired to a ventalator, and lying on a shit-stained bed in an understaffed ICU.

Just a thought...

And it looks like we might be tee-ing up that 3500 point down day, for the DJIA.   Interesting times, yes?   We favour peace, but the whole western world, despite the sad Germans, and the dysfunctional USA Federal "Government" (such as it is), may find it cannot stop this angry "mobilization process", which seems to be a global phenonmenon.   If we get a significant meltdown in the markets, and a taste of traditional mass-poverty, the whole "Let's Go (to War!), Brandon" thing will gain even greater currency and public support.

Putin should send his "Terror Army" of modern stormtroopers home or at least, back to barracks in Moscow, and Xi should allow a full, open, internationally-sanctioned technical inquiry, into the true origins of the lethal Covid-19 coronavirus pandemic.

We doubt either of these outcomes will occur.   So we probably better start quietly beating some plowshares into weapon's-systems.  We have no choice, it appears.  We also better start taking action to engineer effective changes in our bad Governments, here in North America.

The Romans were correct.   A State ensures it's survival and peaceful commericial stability, by being ready to deal with bandits, thieves and border-raiders.  Russian bandit states - such as the criminal regime in Belarus - are already guilty of massive election fraud, air piracy and kidnapping.  If Ukraine falls back to being a vassel-state of Russia, by virtue of a military defeat, a dangerous new world dis-order will have been created and sanctioned by a weak and disabled USA.   That will then mean a broken and disfunctional NATO.  This puts the security of Europe and North America at risk again.  Only this time, the terrorsts are nation-states, and they have nuclear weapons.  

This tragic sequence of failure, weakness and surrender of our collective values - which Biden and the other Leftists have engineered & delivered - should be stopped now, and reversed.

Changes are needed.  Changes at the top, in both USA and Canada.

[ Jan. 22, 2022 ] - American Lab Leak - With LIVE MONKEYS! - Just when you thought the poor Americans could not get it any worse - here we go, with a truck crash involving LIVE MONKEYS THAT WERE LAB TEST ANIMALS - being shipped by truck, from the lab to a place where they go when the lab is done with the poor things.   We do not know if the monkeys are (or were) infected with Covid-19, or perhaps some other virus or bacterial agents.   We do know that the CDC (the Centre for Disease "Control") has been called in to offer technical assistance.  And people are warned not to approach the ones that escaped.

Personally, we believe that Covid-19 was the direct result of a lab leak in Wuhan, China, that occured by accident - probably mice carried the modified bat-virus from waste products, or from the lab itself, to the live-animal food market, next door.  This is not silly "conspiracy-theory" nonsense - just the simple and most likely explanation for what happened, given that the Wuhan Virology Lab was conducting "gain-of-function" research (ie. genetic tweaking to make the bat virus more virulent - mostly to see simply if it could be done).   This research was funded by American agencies - which is why neither China nor USA want to get to the bottom of where and how Covid-19 originated.   So it goes.

What is interesting, is just how awful and almost tragic-comic is this "Lab Monkeys Released in Crash" story.   It is almost a perfect example of how it is impossible - absolutely impossible - to keep nasty stuff in labs, properly secure.   Lab leaks occur *all the time", and are painfully commonplace events.    No one should be surprised if a lab leak happened in China. 

Here are details - with pictures - of what just happened near Danville, in Pennsylvania. 

https://www.usnews.com/news/news/articles/2022-01-22/dont-approach-lab-monkey-missing-after-crash-people-told

Poor monkeys.  These were test animals, from a lab, probably doing some kind of virus, vaccine or medical-products testing.  The monkeys were test animals.    What is interesting is that no one is saying if the little animals had Covid-19 - and if so, is it some new variant?   

Army of the 12 Monkeys?   (or is it now, the "100 Monkeys"?    Perhaps we should give them keyboards.  They could write Joe Biden another speech.)

[ Jan 21, 2022 ] - Plans for the New Post-Soviet Ukraine:  Put In a Pleasure Palace, Please...

- We are not sure if this is real, but it makes a good story.  Why let the truth stand in the way of a good story?   :D

https://www.businessinsider.co.za/putin-palace-leak-479-photos-navalny-ice-rink-pole-dancing-2022-1

Last nite, I tried to open the front door of my house, and the doorknob broke - literally broke to pieces, metal bits falling on the carpet..   FFS.   My first thought, of course, was: "Desolation Row...?".    So, I used the Linux comsole to google "about the time the doorknob broke", and I found this version, by "My Chemical Romance", circa 2009.   Thirteen year old video, yet it seems really quite au courant...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dhZTNgAs4Fc

Good luck, people.  We gonna need it.  Remember Axel O's famous observation:

"Do you not know, my son, with how very little wisdom the world is governed?"  - Axel Oxenstierna, in a letter to his son Johan, written in 1648.
 

[ Jan. 20, 2022 ] - Handed Your Head - Well, call me Medusa.  The technology works pretty good, but the human needs work.  :)

It's pretty clear that the inflation will be tolerated, because the alternatives are still fraught with with way too much risk.  We went long too soon, and got handed our head.  The Covid numbers are ramping up wildly, and the hospitals are full.  We had to cancel a routine medical thing.  The shelves are curiously empty at a local grocery story we use (but not at Costco - it is running fine, and seems to be fully stocked).   But our long trade exploded in our face, like a hand-gernade with a zero-time fuse.   Pull the pin - and BOOM.  As you look around for your head, you think, with what is left of your brain-stem:  "It's really not supposed to work this way..."   But in the happy little "Fool's World of Speculative Trading", it's pretty common, actually.  

[ Jan. 19, 2022 ] - UK Inflation Numbers (and a Plea for Economic Sanity):Office of National Statistics (ONS) in England, reports December 2021 annual inflation rates for United Kingdom at 5.4% for the CPI (Consumer Price Index), which of course understates the actual inflation rate experienced by consumers and businesses.   The "Core CPI", a bogus measure that tries to exclude things that go up in price (such as alcohol and tobacco products,  food and energy costs) still rose to 4.2 % (from a November 2021 reading of 3.9%).

What is really interesting, are these other numbers, which are not as widely reported, and we think show a more accurate picture of what is really happening:

Retail Price Inflation:    November:  7.1%,  December:  7.5%

Factory Price Inflation:   November:  9.4%,  December:  9.3%

Producers costs Inflation for Material & Energy:   November:  15.2%,  December:  13.5%

This information is from a Reuter's article, at this URL: 

  https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-inflation-rises-highest-since-march-1992-2022-01-19/

The Bank of England should immediately set it's short-term, administered interest-rates to some sane and sensible levels, that reflect what is actually happening in the British economy.   The inflation rate in the UK is back to that 8%+ level that prevailed in the world at the end of the 20th century.  Short-term administered rates in the 2% to 4% range, seem to be indicated.

The problem, of course, is the government debt.   Raising rates anywhere will crash the government bond market, and increase debt-service costs - and this cost increase will flow directly down to taxpayers. 

Now, think for a minute about the economic machine you have here:  The methodology that will be applied to reduce macroeconomic inflation pressure - higher interest rates - will actually flow right down to taxpaying households, as higher tax costs.   Duh!   We will "Whip Inflation Now!" with higher costs to households!   Really.  This is what was done in the 1970's in USA and Canada.   Idiots in charge, of course.

And now, all the numbers ten times are bigger.   Understand?  Some are a hundred times bigger.  If we keep these stupid low interest rates, we will blow up government spending (this is already happening in Canada and USA), and trap ourselves in a silly situation where even modest rate-rises will produce substantial debt-service costs to taxpayers.  Remember, there is not any seperate "Government money".  It all has to be squeezed out of taxpayers.

If inflation is running at 8%, we will need at least 4% to 6% yields on government bonds.  Moving yields from near-nothing, to 4% to 6% range, will kill the value of western-world bond market holdings.  All that "wealth" pumped into the economic machine, by central-bank bond buying, will just disappear, as the bond-markets transition in valuations.   The inflation driven re-pricing may happen quickly.     This - we suspect - is why the Central Banks are not acting, because they know that when they do, they run a real risk of blowing up the entire financial system.

Where is wealth held?  In bank deposits, bonds and stocks - financial instruments.  There exists the risk of a massive - and very fast - re-pricing of these instruments, if the Central Banks act to adequately address the rising inflation pressure.

So, the Central Banks basically are trapped into having to do nothing.  We are all taking the financial equivalent of heroin - it only is a problem when we stop.  

But the inflation will run quickly out of control - feeding forward into all process-costs, and then also into funding costs, even if small interest rate rises occur.  It is already happening, and it is a symptom of economic breakage, which needs to be addressed.

We went to CostCo today, and bought some groceries and food- just one single shopping cart. The cost at the cash-register was over $500 (Cdn).   A few years ago, we were spending $200 to $300 for a cart-full of food.  In the last five years, our basic living costs seem to have doubled.  We are lucky, because we have capital, it is deployed, and we trade.  But we have to endure massive swings in portfolio value, to be in the game successfully.    It's more than a little crazy.

In the time of 1971 to 2001, when inflation was running around 8% annually, my father was able to put money out at 8% to 11%, and stay slightly ahead of the process.   We typically have earned more like 4.5% to 5.5% over the 2001 to 2021 two decades, and that has been enough to stay ahead of inflation - but just barely.   Now that inflation is moving back to it's historical 8%+ level, it is clear, we are at real risk.    We - and others - need to make changes, quickly.

Fortunately, we made real-estate speculations.   And sometimes I trade,  Be aware that the chatter that "financial planners" offer folks, is almost worthless.  In this insane world now, which is between a rock (zero-level rates-of-return on low-risk assets) and a hard-place (rising inflation pressures), the only chance you have is to basically run your own "hedged-fund". 

I need to write a book about this.   The working title is:  "Funded by Randomness".

The markets are not really random.  You need to understand, they are *trying* to kill you!    And they will succeed eventually, with a 100% certainty.    

What the Central Bankers and the lightweight political people need to understand, is that the economic machine is a beautiful machine - but like all complex equipment - it must be managed wisely.   The job of the Central Banker is to protect the money.   They should *not* be focusing on employment or foolish Green-silly  (eg. ESG) type issues.  Just keeping the money "real" is a difficult job.  It should not be blurred with other foolish desires or counter-productive tasks.

Inflation - especially high-inflation - is a sign that money is not working correctly, and this means the Central Bankers need to make adjustments.   Governments need to run balanced (or near-balanced) budgets, and taxes need to be kept low, so the economic machine can function smoothly.   This has been a historically difficult balance to make, and now even more so, given the broken "democratic" process we now seem to have.

We live in a world so dangerously distorted, twisted and dishonest, that I am surprised we do not have rioting in the streets.   The investment process is near-breakdown (zero-returns means zero-investment), and money-printing to pay government bills is *always* going to destroy money-value.  If it is the world's reserve currency that is being money-printed, then that currency will not fall.   Instead, the risk is that a scenario will be created that causes a non-linear transition to a *much* poorer world - a rapid transition event may well occur, in which an enormous amount of financial-paper wealth is simply vapourized.   I fear this may happen eventually, and I am seriously worried about this outcome.   It could mean a rapid transition into a World-War, and a time of poverty and conflict that returns us all to very long-run historical norms. 

But - as Malthus indicated, many years ago - maybe this is necessary, to keep the machine in operational balance...   (I am becoming a more dismal scientist, each day...)     :/  

FD: (Full Disclosure..)  We are long again.  They will raise rates a little bit, but not enough to kill the money-boom.   Of the two evils, moderate inflation is the lesser one, so it will be selected.  Prices will rise.  Stock prices will rise - but so will volatility.   Expect violent "stop hitting" gun-runs, with the stock and bond markets trading like wheat and cotton did, back in the old days.  This seems to be the way the trading algorithms are programmed.     We are sympathetic to counter-trend trading strategies, but in truth both our own little business, and the successful traders we have studied, make their best returns by simply being invested.  One has to ride the dragon, not kill it.

[ Jan. 18, 2022 ] - A 3500-Point Down Day on the DJIA - We are pretty sure that this is lurking out there, and will make it's appearance fairly soon.  This market is crazy stretched, and is floating on central-bank supplied foam.  Once the foam-generator is simply dialed back a bit, a 10 to 15 percent retracement looks to be in the cards.  Note that this is *not* what the AI says.  The AI says we continue up - but my long-wave research suggests we are stretched and being supported by monetary excess - probably the most extreme that has ever been crafted (with a few notable exceptions, such as Germany in the 1920 to 1923 period).  

The economic machine is pretty good at engineering self-correcting scenarios, and we are looking for a mechanism to remove the excess "foam-cash" that is driving the process at the moment.  In 1929, the USA Federal Reserve raised rates from 4 to 6 percent, and everyone was long, with only 10% margin.  A crash was certain.   We are not quite at that point - except the transition from zero interest rates, to 2 or 3 percent rates - this *substantially* alters the effective discount rate in everybody's DCF (discounted cash flow) models, and risks making an enormous number of projects uneconomic.   And yet if we *don't* get the interest-rate increases, we will effectively destroy money-purchasing power, with the already-serious inflation that is happening.

So, we are f*cked either way, guys.   The world has painted itself into a corner, like a bad cartoon, and there will be no "hand of god" to come and pluck us out of this mess.   I keep trying to find a scenario of some kind of soft-landing or sane-re-alignment of the variables - but I just don't see it happening.   The USA and Canada are both run by light-weight neo-socialist nutters, who are focusing on fool's issues and other nonsense to engineer political distraction.  And that is pretty much working.   But for how much longer?    I just cannot shake the feeling that the numbers are all fake - the labour market looks *tight* - but that is because the participation rate is falling like a brick in water. 

I understand why Putin is trying to engineer a war.  It's all he has left, in his little spycraft bag of tricks.  Same reason why Biden is trying to disfigure and destroy American democracy, and the phoney press monkeys are calling it "voters rights legislation".  (It is so *not* about "Voting Rights" that it is hilarious.)    All this fluff-puff and fakery and war-generation - it is all about the operational exhaustion of the various economic processes involved.  

Nothing is working right.  Investment is broken, and the future appears to be a series of bleak nightmares of social-control, rising costs, creeping poverty, declining incomes and grim restrictions on human freedom - combined with a routine and rotating series of plagues, sickness-events and tragic outcomes.   The AI is not capturing this.   Maybe it is correct, and I am seeing demons that exist only in my own imagination.    But human imagination can often provide the hint that lets us avoid disasters - especially if we can grasp the truths that lie buried in the historical record.

https://www.tatsuki.org/papers/SeismicCulturesWS/1.TATSUKI(2018)_Seismic_Culture.pdf

[ Jan. 17, 2022 ] - Inflation Happens. - See the "Story of the Two Pontiacs" above, to see an actual, true numeric estimate of what the honest, typical modern inflation rate actually is.  The official inflation numbers published by government agencies *vastly* understate the true inflation rate, for numerous political reasons. 

Investors - who do not want to speculate - are getting pressed between a rock and a hard place, in the modern world today.   You speculate, or else you may die in poverty, if you are not a pensioned government worker.  And even if you are comfortable now, you can find that your pension takings may well be vapourized by inflation - in the same manner as will happen to the ordinary working folks - if they can even find honest employment!    You either go rogue, or you learn to speculate like a riverboat gambler.   And both of these choices carry substantial risks.   But so does just sitting with savings.  You can actually see the money-value wither away, if you look carefully.   Fun times, eh? 

So, drive fast, drink good wine (or fine Scotch, as the case may be), and enjoy what you have, while you can.  If you don't get killed by Covid-19, you are certain to be impoverished by inflation, or destroyed by a market crash - regardless of any choice you make.

See, this is the basic problem with AI technology.  It actually works quite well.  You can use it to see the future, along with a little basic (and not-so-basic) analytic effort.   The problem is, is that you discover that you are basically dead.   You are in a toxic chess end-game, and checkmate is certain to occur, since you are playing against the Universe.   And the Universe wants to kill you, and see you die, and it will.   Nothing can alter that outcome.   

Even the very best simulator, as the simulation is run, ends always with the death of the operator.  This is a sobering observation, which cannot be denied.   All your efforts and your work - it is in vain, no matter how good it looks at any given moment.    Humans make up all sorts of nonsense and silly fictions (eg. religion, gods, devils, afterlife, and so on), but all that is complete nonsense, and everyone - deep down - knows this assertion to be true.

So, one is left feeling just a bit annoyed.   With our AI devices, we can see the future - but we cannot seem to do anything constructive or effective about it.  And the folks who might be in a position to make course-corrections, seem to all have their heads pushed up into their backsides.  And that is curious, and even more annoying.  

[ Jan. 15, 2022 ] - Money Talks, Even After It has Been Murdered - The old pirates used to say: "Dead men tell no tales", but of course now, with DNA testing, and good forensic technology & analysis, this is no longer the case.   The same is true about money.  Dead money cannot be used to buy product in the grocery store, or the supermarket.  But it has much to tell us about the dishonesty, the trickery and the outright scamming that national governments *routinely* engineer to impoverish and manipulate their people.

The latest socialist idiocy (in a long line of grotesque national socialist and communist lies), is called "modern monetary theory", or MMT for short.   It says, in a nutshell, that money supply does not matter, and large increases in money supply and government spending can be undertaken, without creating inflation.  This is of course, nonsense.  But like the fake "science" of "global warming / climate change", these lies serve a powerful political purpose.

The nation-states can engineer a rolling series of "crisis events", blame the marketplace and the financial institutions for any economic dislocations, and drive down the real wage levels and raise up the real tax rates, so as to enrich the centres of power, at the expense of the people they rule over.   Every political action is always about power and control - make no error about that.

And this engineered deprication of monetary valuations, is directly about re-enabling the central control and management of economic activity.   We are right in the middle of an ugly and very dangerous real-time experiment, which is underway everywhere.

The real yield on virtually all government bonds - almost everywhere in the whole goddamn world - is negative now.   This is insane.  If you are an investor - simply a plain, ordinary person trying to make rational investments using your lifetime savings, in such a way so as to ensure that you will not be completely impoverished over the next 10 or 15 years - there are simply no rational alternatives anywhere.  Your only options, are to speculate, and do so aggressively.

So, life is tough.  Big deal.  This is not new.   But what is new, is the obvious result of this MMT model, in which every single monetary variable has been pushed to the limit - and then beyond - and we now appear to have no margin for error - or even bloody buffer stocks - anywhere.

All the bullshit about "supply chain disruptions" is complete nonsense.

For 2021, the produce price index - a very conservative calculation, designed to mask obvious inflation - still showed a rise of over 9% in the USA.  The CPI was over 7% for the same period.  In a normal world, this would induce the central bank to take some serious action, given that their *target* maximum inflation rate is 2%.  And yet, nothing is being done at all - just more talk.  And this talk comes as both China and Russia are actively enhancing and extending serious military threats towards their neighbours.    This is nothing to do with "pandemic" action, this is because each of the leaders of those two nations are clearly aware that things cannot continue as they are, for much longer.

The entire world looks like it might be functionally bankrupt, and operating on a rolling series of unsustainable "re-funding" exercises.  This is nothing to do with "climate change", and everything to do with completely unsustainable monetary expansion, and widespread "payments for non-work" and debt action "restructurings".    The entire nation of China is running on paper funny-money, almost exactly has France did, during the expansion phase of John Law's first national paper-money scheme for that country, in the early 1700's.   There is effectively no private property in that country, and virtually all property-based hypothecation, is complete bullshit.   There is a limit to how much longer this astonishing exercise in legalistic deception, can continue.  It might go on for 50 more years, until it breaks, or it might break in 50 weeks, or 50 days.   The whole place is living a lie, and is not paying its bills.

And we are not much better here.  Russia succeeds by being at war.  The place has always been at war, and it's history is one of violence and conflict.    A Russian attack - again - on Ukraine, will be ugly, and will no doubt give the appearance of success, but will cause a complete break with all Russian commercial activity, unless or until, Putin is removed, by whatever means possible.   We had thought Russia was modernizing, but this seems not to be the case - so conflict and collapse is programmed in again for that tragic nation.  Their people again risk being yoked by an abusive, dishonest militaristic elite.  This is as certain as it is tragic.

And Europe is unable to focus on any actions except State control, taxation increases, and large state schemes for economic restriction and ultimate failure.   We simply cannot find any examples of anything really working right there, anymore.  And in our large land-mass, small population nation, we seem to be copying their errors - when we are not busy copying the errors being made in America.

So, we are concerned.  History did not end.   In fact, it is giving all appearance of spiraling towards economic dislocation caused by currency manipulation, over-the-top national debt-levels, resulting mass-collapse, and global conflict.    Or maybe everything will be just fine.   But I just cannot believe this, given the high-inflation, low-yields, high-risks associated with any investment action, and ongoing trading/supply-chain breakdowns.   It all just looks broken and very much like a complex system that has reached a limiting-case exhaustion scenario.

And maybe a series of earthquakes will deliver another exogenous shock to our global economic system.  The Covid-19 pandemic is not our only risk factor.   We have been looking at seismic data.  We seem to be about due for another event.  If curious, you can monitor earthquake activity in real-time, in the famously-named "Ring of Fire":

https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=-29.68805,-245.74219&extent=72.60712,-79.80469

 

[ Jan. 14, 2022 ] - Fake Lake - The big "data-lakes" are fake lakes.  The numbers are fake.  The data is managed, bogus and not to be trusted.  Seriously.   When the algorithms are almost perfect, and knowledge is encapsulated in action-process, then the only way advantage can be gained, is by engineering fake data.  The data-lakes are "fake lakes".   It's hilarious - like a bad film noir, full of gangsters with low-talking voices.   The data cannot be trusted, because it is engineered.

Are the prices fake?   Almost.   The equity markets in North American are fake - not quite "rigged", but basically, the data they generate, is now ancient history, and effectively fake.  The professionals know this, and so do the academics.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-09-29/is-stock-market-rigged-insider-trading-by-executives-is-pervasive-critics-say

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/28/forget-fake-news-investors-should-realize-the-markets-are-fake-says-asset-manager.html

https://www.vox.com/the-goods/22832438/nft-gamestop-amc-crypto-bubble

What is really interesting, is that most people - although they know that most market process now is driven by fake data - there is no one who really cares too much about this - and the political people in charge of things - either the economic lightweights in Canada (The Cdn PM has explicitly said: "I don't care about monetary policy"), or the old Leftists folks pretending to run the USA, are not really even aware that a problem exists.   It's a very strange time now.

We used to play a terrible game, as stupid teenagers. The idea was to find a highway without traffic at night, turn off the headlights, and turn on the car interior lights, and then accelerate.  The idea was to see how long you could hold your course, before you felt panic, and switched on the headlights.  It was a "personal chicken" game - completely stupid.  Of course, the trick was to get some tiny clue, where the real highway was, and have knowledge of any curves ahead.

The markets now feel like that stupid game.    Being a stupid teenager seems to actually offer useful, actionable information.   How about that?  :O   (<-- big surprise ascii emoji... )

See, the key point here, is that when playing a really stupid, dangerous game, the idea is that you win by developing the wisdom to stop playing it.  Else you get killed (or horribly injured), and either way, the system engineers (all by itself), an outcome that benefits system stability.  The system self-organizes (rather harshly, sometimes) to solve it's own problems.   :)

Astonishing Lies from the Captain of the Fake-Lake of USA Politics

Just read this note in the URL link below, to see a summary of the outrageous lies and fake-speak that curious Mr. Biden served up recently,  in a speech in Georgia.  Just flip thru, and check out the wild stuff.   It's just over-the-top awful.  We are in a scary time now, it seems.   Harris is unfit and so is Biden.  President Blinken?   (OMG...)

https://spectatorworld.com/topic/joe-biden-voting-rights-rhetoric-teeming-slurs-lies-georgia/

[ Jan. 13, 2022 ] - Ice 10 - Screened "Night Train to Munich", with Rex Harrison, in his younger days, playing a role as a British spy.  Film was made in 1940, right at the beginning of the Second World War, when the Brits were still thinking of it as a "phoney war", but the wise folks knew otherwise.  

I recall reading "Most Secret War" by R. V. Jones, all about the impressive use of deception, combined with scientific / technical methods, used by Britain to gain information advantage.   Deception and engineered mis-direction was a critical component in WW2's  successful outcome, not just code-breaking.   The 20th century was characterized by astonishing exercises in deception and fabricated falsehoods, at every level. mostly by government entities, so as to manage the actions of their citizens, both in war and peace.

Contrary to popular thinking, commerical activity and actions in the markets, needs to be, and usually is, driven forward by truth-seeking and truthful action.   Mostly.  But not always.    It is just plain difficult - even at the best of times - to know what is really true.  But with the new technology, it is getting difficult to keep secrets.  If your plan requires secrecy, you might find that is is likely to fail.   The truth generally leaks our now, despite the actions of the bad and/or unwise people who tend to end up in positions of power and authority.   So it goes, as an American writer used to say,..

Fascinating, Verified Examples of Government Fake-Making:

https://www.spiked-online.com/2022/01/12/why-did-scientists-suppress-the-lab-leak-theory/

https://www.usnews.com/news/us/articles/2022-01-12/official-police-used-fake-dna-reports-during-interrogations

https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0010414020957672

"Night Train to Munich" is highly recommended.  Clever tradecraft by both sides.  We now expect the "Cold War" to give way to a "Fire and Ice War" - hot, fiery conflicts, followed by attempts to encase the truth in ice.  

[ Jan 12, 2022 ] - Hotel Covidfornia - You can check-out anytime you want, but you can never breathe.  <cough, cough, hack, sneeze, snort  ,,, >

Stupid times.  Internet was supposed to be a new wonderful thing to bring us all the knowledge of the world, and expand educational opportunities and facilitate the communication of freedom and justice.   But instead, it seems to have become an ugly sideshow of nasty clickbait, State-level monitoring of all citizens, and a device for letting sharp fraudsters and cryptocurrency promoters, steal and harvest money from stupid people.   Oh my.  Add corrupt Government murder-monkeys and Tinpot Dictators into this toxic mixture, as well as Covid-19 and the Swamp Monsters of Washington, and you get the sh/tstorm that we see around us today.  :)  (<-- ascii emoji of smile-face)

Meanwhile, in Economics-Land...

The USA inflation number has come it at the 7% that we expected was the case.  I realize now that Jerome Powell is a goddamn *lawyer*!!   FFS!  Having al Washington lawyer in charge of the USA Central Bank, is maybe not the best plan, if the poor son of a gun cannot grasp that 3 and 4 percent inflation is too much, 5 and 6 percent inflation is WAY too much, AND SEVEN IS RIGHT OUT!    This is just getting comical silly and looney-tune insane.   The USA "Federal Reserve" (what a silly name for a central bank, eh?)  should raise their short term administered interest rate to 4% right NOW, today, Wednesday January 12, 2022 based on that inflation number print.   Even a goddamn lawyer should know enough basic arithmetic to grasp this.

The inflation is not just from supply chain disruption.   Guys, look at your bloody money supply charts printed by the St. Louis Fed!    If you fly over Chicago, you can hear the entire University of Chicago Economics Department laughing so hard their backsides have fallen off. 

The US Fed guys did the right thing, with the agressive money supply tsunami at the beginning of the pandemic, but now it is time to grasp the idea that the time to address the inflation problem is now - RIGHT NOW - before it becomes any more entrenched - since it already is entrenched now.   Damn, but this is an easy thing to fix.   But if they wait - it will need much more aggressive rate-rises to damp down the inflation demon.

It's just weird and strange - all the knowledge about inflation and it's nightmare damage that was done to the Western world economies - all this knowledge seems to have been lost.

The stock markets are still being goosed hard, and the average household is getting it right in the ear, Iggy Pop-style.    Guys, this is double-plus-ungood, and the 7% CPI print means that you bloody well need to act NOW before this crazy sh/t goes on longer.  And it will, because the real inflation people are seeing, is more like 20% to 30% or more.

But Powell is a lawyer.   And I guess that explains it.  He is good at the political chit-chat-sh/t, but he does not seem to know jack-sh/t about economics.   Hells bells,, guys, just hire some grad student from Chicago or someone who is not a lefty goomba Marxist-fool economist, and make him the advisor, or put him in charge - or just read the ugly history of what happened from 1970 to 1981, when inflation became well and truly entrenched, and got away from the central-bank boys.  You don't need "sand in the gears" and stupid shit like that, you just need to "strike while the iron is hot".  

Inflation is already entrenched.  It is right up everyone's backside now, truth be told.   Why the f*ck can these silly bastards not see this?  A few years ago,  I could buy diesel fuel to put in the furnace tank or my tractor, for 1 dollar per litre.  Now, it is $1.49 per litre.  Do you think this is NOT going to affect food prices?   My hydroelectricity is 17 cents per kilowatt-hour, which is twice what it was a few years back.  My last MONTHLY  electricity bill was $173, when a few years back, I was paying around 200 for TWO months power.  We bought a package of four sirloin steaks from CostCo, and they were just under $50, when before Covid, that package was typically 25 to 35 dollars.   We are seeing inflation numbers in every single thing we purchase for the farm.    The USA is tracking CANADA tick-for-tick on this runaway inflation now.  It is not surprising, because our economies are so tightly linked.

Someone please explain economics to Jerome Powell.  It might help.  Use a Leonteif-table (an input-output table) or something that a lawyer is able to understand conceptually, since lawyers are not very clever with numbers, typically.

Read about Dr. W. Leonteif (who invented input-output analysis):

https://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/bios/Leontief.html

https://reader.elsevier.com/reader/sd/pii/0954349X9500019J?token=B54CF78CCA84AF63A7BE36537299509693659F47AAC3BECAFFE8BCBD5777F5DAD988187934E222FF5A066F4C4B6C5A9D&originRegion=us-east-1&originCreation=20220112151851

Input-Output Table explanation:

http://ceadserv1.nku.edu/longa/classes/mat225/projects/Leontief.pdf

Research Work:

https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2001/06/art3full.pdf

https://www.bea.gov/system/files/papers/WP2000-1.pdf

The use of input-output tables is simple, conceptually.  They are like that song about "Apartment House" life - "One man's ceiling, is another man's floor".   One sector's output, is another sector's input.    If a bunch of basic stuff that everyone uses, gaps up in price by 50%, and that sector's output is the input to every other sector, then BIG INFLATION will result.  ("Duh!", you want to say, eh?).  But that is what we have, with "chip shortages" and 80+ dollar-per-barrel crude oil price.  So, it is time to *GET BUSY* and given the unemployment rate is flatlined below 4%, it is TIME TO RAISE THE SHORT-TERM INTERST RATES, so we don't get runaway inflation.

The problem with inflation, is that a one-time shock, can cycle back, and keep goosing the system.  You need to negatively damp the feedback loop - with higher costs of funds - and damp down activity, so the system does not cycle so much it destroys savings. When that happens, then the investment process breaks down, as all funds are directed into immediate consumption.

The labour market is already at full employment, and the external inputs and imports are just flying.   Ease up now on the gas, before you have to hit the brakes hard, guys.

FFS, even a goddman lawyer should be able to grasp the need for action, here.

Remember, the CPI wildly understates the true, actual inflation rate that households are actually experiencing.

[ Jan. 11, 2022 ] - Using a Ferrari or a Lamborghini to Plow Your Field? - Well, unlike Ferrari, Lamborghini actually did first make tractors.  I look at the algorithmically-driven markets now, laced with tripwires, and I wonder if they really are suitable investment vehicles.  My instincts tell me no - but economics argues that wild (not tame, gambling-house style) volatility is the norm, and must be expected.  We see a 3500 point drop in the DJIA coming.  But maybe it comes as a series of 1/8th-per-day down moves, not a flash-event.   Or maybe we add another 5000 points before this happens. Until the earthquakes begin, of course.  :D  <-- (big grin ascii emoji)   (ps: Lamborghini Tractors are still made, except the company is owned by: "Same Deutz-Fahr", which has it's own complex history.)

I suspect Covid is just the beginning.   We (the world) cannot go on this way.  Nothing works right.  The high-volatility markets seem to be reflecting this curious reality.  We seem to be out of sync with what is happening.   I can't shake the feeling that we are in the tiger's cave, his eyes are watching us, and a ragged, nasty demise awaits us all, in the very near future. 

This might not be neural-net error on my part.  This has nothing to do with Covid, and everything to do with my respect for the Chicago School models of monetary theory.   Imagine a bubbling pot, with a hot burner under it, on a big stove - except the pot lid is sealed to the top of the pot.   Everything is just fine, right up to the very moment when the system makes this very rapid transition to being *not-fine*.   

The operational change-events in the world of reality are just not linear.  They almost *never* are linear.   In the world of markets, the idiocy of "portfolio insurance", back in the 1980's, taught us that.   The dot-com bubble of 1997-2000, the 9/11 terrorist attacks, and the 2008 Housing Bubble/Financial Crisis/Lehman Crash  - these recent history events  taught us all this lesson again.

Yet it seems we must learn it yet again.  Or am I just plain wrong, and the market strength is rational and valid?  I can smell the tiger, and see it's yellow eyes.   The cave (the market) just does not feel like it is a wise place to be now.  The evident inflation, and the response the market must make, is almost a certainty.   We need to be aware - not of a possible "bear market", but of a "hungry tiger market".    It is crouched, and I can just feel it up ahead in the dim mist of the near future.

Voting Rights? Are You Sure That's What it is? - Really? The "Freedom to Vote Act"?  Huh?  Maybe it should be called the "Biden Ballot-Box Stuffing Act"  => "B3SA" for short?   Or maybe the "Freedom to Vote-Democrat Act"? => "FreeVD" Act for short?

Ballot-box stuffing has a very long and colourful history in both USA and Canada.  But I had not expected that a questionable, curious group of legislators, would try to make the process so very easy.   Curious, indeed. 

As the old Time Traveller from the future, told me:  "You think this is bad?   Just wait until you see what the future has in store for you!    Bwah ha ha ha ho ho ho ho...." he chortled, as he hit the engage switch on his DeLorean.

Future-Perfect Tense  ( I Seem to Be Very Wrong, Here... )

But maybe we can act now, to vector events onto a different timeline.   The transition is happening, but we have another runaway day today on the markets.   I am very impressed by this, and I find it very unexpected.   The astonishing run in the Financials has proved me wrong.   We are, today, wrong and *not-long*, and this looks to have been unwise.  I thought I could outsmart my AI model, and it was right, and I was wrong.  I let fear stop my forward progress.  

We kept our bank stocks in our not-traded portfolio, but I unwisely unloaded in December, and the opportunity cost of this unwise action is proving to be very high.  I expected to be able to reposition at a lower price level, and this has proven to be impossible.   A worst-case scenario of a runaway market in the Financials, has become a perfect panic-buying storm.    I am stunned.   I have tried to buy back a couple of times, and missed the market both times.  I have so little direct experience with wild bull markets - almost none, really.    But the numbers are right there on the screen - crazy runaway numbers, like in the history books.  So outside of my own experience, where disaster follows upon disaster and madness, foolishness and collapse are the norm I have navigated thru my whole life (successfully, yes.)    It's like that book by "Adam Smith", about the 1960's markets (before my time).  It's the "Dot-Com" Bubble on steroids.   I suppose that Powell's chat must have gone ok. 

Curiouser and curiouser.   Here is something I have learned:  The idea re. successful investing/speculation seems to be: Do research and decide if you should be in or out of the market.  IF you are supposed to be "in", then just buy in, and let the price action take care of itself.  Don't sweat the bad fills, and the nano-second co-location front-running.

This is very different that what I have historically done.   If the decision is correct, the results will become apparent.   Decide if you are scalping for nickels and dimes, or if you are investing/speculating over an intermediate time-scale.   I sense that investing over intermediate time scales works better, and ultimately will make more money, if monetary conditions are acceptable.   This seems to remain the case, despite all the chit-chat and hawk-talk.  It is what is done that matters, not what is said.   The monetary conditions are still very loose.  They could raise rates 1 or 2 percent, and the conditions would still be crazy-loose by historical standards.

So, I f*cked up pretty badly here.  I didn't lose money, but a failure to make money, in an environment like this one, is actually worse, since this kind of bull-run madness does not happen very often.  I spend too much time playing with this website, and not enough doing my work that matters.   :/ 

[ Jan. 10, 2022 ] - PETE - Profound Economic Transition Event - Ok, lets put a name on it.  PETE - Profound Economic Transition Event.   The Old World has ended, and the New World is beginning - but it will be different.  (One wants to say: "Duh!")

This happens regularly in human history.   It sure happened in spades in Germany and Poland.  It happened in China, right before our eyes.

Now it maybe is about to happen here.   It is showing up in the weird supply problems, and the wild changes in price levels.  Local houses here, now sell for over 1 million Cdn dollarettes.  This looks insane - but economics is what it is.  If prices are set freely, by buyers and sellers, they are right.

We are jumping to a new nodal point?  (Shades of William Gibson!)   Our Starlink was offline from 4:30 am to 6:00 am this morning.  And I both noticed, and it affected us.  How about that?  That is crazy - but we are probably not unique.  We hold on very lightly, and maintain local capability in just about everything.  We have gone from being ridiculed, to being basically mainstream. This is curious - but it is how transition events work.  

We made scones with blueberries in them yesterday - completely from scratch.  But it was store-bought flour.   I am wondering how one would create a working, 21st century millstone, to grind locally grown grain.  And we need wind-generators.  Our neighbour has one (a big surplus one, he imported from California, it looks like).  I worry about the power grid.

The whole scenario reminds me of "Day of the Triffids" - when the hero/protagonist fires up the generator, and the lights come back on at the French school.  "Oh, everything is getting back to normal!" everyone exclaims.   Then the dude comes in and says, "No, I just fired up the generator...."   (Needed that generator, to create the electric fence, to keep the triffids out...!).

Things will not be "getting back to normal".   We are tracking thru a PETE, and it feels pretty weird.  It is now showing up in the real-world economic linkages and operational characteristics, not just the algo-driven markets. It's showing up in prices.  And lack-of-supply.

Remember, a 10% market correction is a common occurance in bull-markets.  Even more likely in bull-shit markets (like this one, which has been goosed by the biggest money-supply creation since Germany in the 1920-23 time period.)   Just try to find economic numbers for market prices then.  It is almost impossible.   Price data in big transition events is hard to find.   The best I have found, is the 1855 to 1868 time period in Japan - the opening of Japan to outside world - the end of Edo times, and the beginning of the Meiji Era, which was really all about a PETE, a massive phase-jump to new technology.  The record of rice-costs (the main Japanese staple food), showed a 7-times increase in price, over that time period.  Absolutely fascinating.   Sword fighting and fake-bushido rules of honor, gave way quickly, to clever samurai being armed with Smith & Wesson handguns.  The old aristocrat-driven feudal society collapsed like a rotten house of cards, in a typhoon of change.   But it was a good and necessary change.

Money has to be made to go away.  And we suspect the market will do it's good job here.  There is too much money floating around, and too little stuff.   Suddenly, an old used 20 year old Viper sports car, costs close to $200,000 Canadian!  It's insane - except there are too many questionable-quality people making a million dollars a year salary, for moving paper around.  This is crazy - we are seeing a profound economic change grind thru our society, like a big millstone on the grain that is the average household.

The key here, is resiliance.  Each of us needs to engineer, operational resiliance, as the old things and old ways fall apart.  What the market might well do, is make this process clear, by removing the unwise economic puff and froth and foam that has been injected (unwisely?) into the world.

Everyone thinks the 1930's was wrong and bad, and not the right thing.   But what if it actually WAS the right thing?   America was basically debt-free, and was able to tee-up for the 2nd World War, fight it with it's allies, win it hands-down, no argument, and then change the world.  And the 1930's was an amazing time of scientific development and discovery.  Maybe we need these kinds of economic cleansing events?

But could this happen now?  Maybe not.  But perhaps.  Our world is choking on debt, and hyper-complex, unworkable supply-chain relationships.  Maybe this artificial complex, supported by extreme levels of debt, is more fragile than we thought.    Maybe the world is Japan, and it is 1853, and the change is about to really get rolling now.   In my whole life, I have never seen all the car dealers have no cars for sale.   The whole system looks like it is just locking-up.

Who exactly buys a $100,000 F-150 pickup truck?   Does that even make any kind of economic sense?   A pickup-truck was supposed to be for farmers and working folks, not just billionaires.  The whole economic structure seems to be twisted seriously out of shape, and supported by deep debt at every level.  Somehow, we suspect this will self-correct, since the governments are not able to do anything meaningful.

And OMG, the whole Kazakhstan destabilization exercise has been impressive.  Curious Joe Biden, has given Kazakhstan back to Putin, after borking Afghanistan and throwing away 20 years of American nation-building efforts.   Biden may go down in history as the most ineffective national leader since that English dipshot who caved in to Hitler.  What was that a$$h%le's name?  Chamber-pot or something?   Ah yes, "Chamberlain" - old fellow looking for "peace in our time".   An old, tragic buffoon, with a broken neural-net, which made him a moron.  Good thing that poor fellow died, and Halifax was stupid (or too clever by half, as the Brits would say..), and Churchill became Prime Minister.   If that had not happened, we really could have had "The Man in the High Tower".  And I'd be writing this in German!

The kids of American kids will be writing their notes in Russian, if Biden and the dysfunctional Democrats are not removed soon.  The Kazakhstan exercise was an almost textbook exercise in old KGB tradecraft on "How To Take Over a State".  We suspect that poor Mr. Kassym Tokayev, the weak leader who invited in the Russian Troops, may soon find himself "falling out of a window", which is the usual trick the KGB (oops, "FSB") murder-men use to remove folks who try to operate with local integrity and honesty.  I truly feel very sorry for Mr. Tokayev.   I hope he buys and keeps a "Tokarev" in his pants pocket, since he will almost certainly need it.   A wise man would no more invite in Russian troops as "peacekeepers", than he would invite cancer mutations into his own cellular DNA.    Mr. Tokayev is now dead, sadly, except he probably does not know it yet.

It is sad to see Russia become another nasty and dangerous risk again.  I had foolishly thought we were done with those days.  What is the French say?  "The more it changes, the more it remains the same."

[ Jan 09, 2022 ] - No Cars at the Car Dealers - Car-less in Canada?- Life is becoming like a twisted Seinfeld episode.  "No Cars for You!", and off you go.  I went to the Toyota, Honda, Kia, Mazda, Ford and Volkswagon car dealers on Sunday (a good time to go, historically an old trick in our local community, since they are all closed, and you can see what is on the lot, without salesmen bothering you).

There are almost no cars at all on the car dealers lots!   It's weird.  January - post Christmas, when everyone is poor, because they pissed away all their funds at Christmas - has always been a good time for semi-shrewd folks to shop for a new car - usually a new, last-years model selling at a deep discount.

Not this year.  The Toyota dealer literally had only 4 or 5 crappy used pieces of rolling nasty on his lot, and  it looked like not a single new Toyota.  Honda was best, with about 8 or 9 high-end wildly overpriced Civics (that look like Tesla's now), and a few used platforms ranging from 30K+ up to 53,000 Cdn dollarettes for a used big Honda thing.  A used Mercedes AMG, circa 2012 (a TEN YEAR OLD car), with an automatic transmission - was priced at $32,000.   It's just nuts.

The Ford dealer had one single black auto Mustang, but it was not in front row - maybe sold. But the Ford guy did have a whole bunch of super-expensive Ford F-150's  ("No Thanks, I already got one..").    It's like a Monty Python episode!   I was waiting for someone to throw the cow at me.

There are no cars.  Mazada had one or two pieces of crap  (used), and a CX-x (something) with a sold sign on it.  The Volkswagon dealer (in a huge new building that must have cost 5 or 10 million to build), had really nice used Mercedes SUV of some kind, with a SOLD sign on it, and a few used Tigjuans and Toe-rags and a couple of weird used pieces.  There looked like 3 or 4 maybe new pieces - also Toe-rags and high-end SUV things.

I have never seen this.  It's weird.   I think all the dealers sold their stock to the USA, and are just keeping their mouths shut about having quietly tossed over their local customers. 

So, no cars for you.   I have some collectors pieces I cannot drive in the Winter, the F-150, and a really old Murano with 200,000 km on it.  Oh, I checked the Nissan dealer also - only a few high-end 2022's, and some used weird junk, also crazy priced.   Fortunately, we picked up a lovely little Honda CRV a year ago, and it is wonderful - despite being high mileage. 

But there are no cars - to speak of - on the dealer's lots.  It's just comical - except how will the banks make money on car loans, if no one can buy a new car?   This is not just a "chip shortage", this is something else - not just Covid.   Need to investigate further...   :)

[ Jan. 9, 2022 ] - The Volatility of War Volatility - The world is increasingly unstable.   The question, of course, is:  Is the path of the instability something that can be understood, sufficiently so that reasonably valid probability estimates can be made for for the occurance of specific events?   Putin of Russia seems determined to start a war with the Western World, despite there being no valid or even sane reason for this to occur - at least that we can see.  But it may be simply that by starting a war (by enhancing the likelyhood of instability in neighbouring nations), he can maintain himself in power and in control of the Russian State.  

The ugly situation in Kazakstan is directly out of the old KGB "Disrupt the State - Sieze the State" playbook.   We suspect (but have no direct knowledge of) a situation, where there is an entire floor of clever spyfolk in some FSB (the Federal Security Bureau - new name for KGB) building, which has been working carefully to engineer the tragic events in Kazakstan.  Once Russian troops enter the place to "maintain order", you can bet it will be very difficult to get them to leave.

The thing to say to Putin is simply:  "If you invade Ukraine, we will completely obliterate your invading army, suspend all diplomatic relations with Russia, and put NATO forces on highest level of alert.  All trade with Russia will be suspended, and all Russian assets will be frozen, for the duration of the hostilities.  Do you *really* want to do such a profoundly stupid thing as this, and initiate an unnecessary war with us?"

Putin is a clever fellow, and after the horrific failure of the Afghan mis-adventure and ugly defeat that the Americans suffered there, as they "CUT AND RAN" from the place, to leave the people of that nation to be overrun by terrorists and religio-fascist gangsters, he doubtless figures that America is a weak, hollow shell of what it used to be, and that it can be bluffed into giving up Ukraine to Russia. 

Stalin was willing to arrange for the murder of over 1 million Ukrainian farmers, so their land could be siezed and turned into Soviet "collective" (ie. stolen property) farms, to feed Russians, and Putin probably figures he can run the same program, and get the same results, given that America appears so badly broken, and Ukraine is weak and has no nuclear weapons.

We would suggest to Putin and his gangboys, that they might simply want to consider just buying that Ukrainian wheat from the folks there.   They don't need to try to steal it, and risk starting the Third World War.   But given that Putin has been trying to murder and imprison anyone who opposes his autocratic rule, perhaps he is drifting in to full meglomaniac Stalinistic sadism, and is no longer operating under rational self-control.    What starts as a high-stakes poker game among associates who respect each other, can collapse quickly in to extreme and ugly violence, if either cheating or madness is brought to the table.

We rather hope this is not how events track forward from here.   We thought Putin was an honorable fellow, trying to do the best for Mother Russia - an impressive nation which has given the world so many firsts in science and mathematics.  The Western World should include and embrace Russia, and the Russian people.  They are us, and we are them.  We should not be enemies.   That is just stupid.    But what is happening in Kazakstan should make us very worried.  It so looks like an old KGB planning exercise -  a weak regime, engineered to ask for *assistance* to put down a crisis, which of course was carefully initiated and launched by operatives acting to enhance instability, create conflict, and pretext what is essentially a Russian power-grab to sieze the State.

It should make us all, very, very worried, and it means we have to double-down, and recognize just what we are dealing with.   When a puppet regime can ask for and then obtain foreign troops to shoot-to-kill protesters, it should be clear to all, exactly what is taking place.

Sometimes, the "instability" is artificial, and has been carefully engineered to obtain a specific outcome.  The old KGB (Putin's former employer), had very specific playbooks on exactly how to do exactly what is taking place right now.

The American government appears like it is curiously dysfunctional.    The risks here are very high.   We rather hope their Agency entities are still operational, and we suspect that this is the case.   The problem, of course, is that the entire process becomes algorithmic, and moves along without anyone in explicit control.   It all begins to look a bit like that Kurosawa film, Yojimbo, or even worse, the beginning of the First World War ("OMG!  They have mobilized their army!  Well, we had better mobilize our's!"  and the flags fly, the drums beat, and smiling, waving young men line up to be led to killing fields.)  

If Putin loves Russia, he should withdraw his army, and put his pistol back in his pants.  People everywhere are so angry now, that the war will be welcomed, and it may well run on virtual automatic pilot, at internet speeds, and lead to significant system-negative outcomes for all of Western culture - both Europe and Russia.

[ Jan. 7, 2022 ] - That Astonishing "Democrat" Deception Machine - The astonishing behaviour of the American Democrats is just over-the-top.   It honestly resembles Germany, in the 1930's.   That curious woman who is in the role of Vice President of the USA has compared the Jan. 6th, 2021 protests at Washington, to the 9/11 terrorist attacks and the Pearl Harbour bombing - which American intelligence agents absolutely knew about, and Roosevelt allowed to happen, so that public opinion would support America's entry into World War Two, and the Neutrality Act could be undone.  That event ended with the nuclear bombing of two Japanese cities - an ugly mass-murder of civilians that is one of the most extreme in recorded human history.  And the 9/11 terrorist attacks on NYC and Washington were world-changingly awful.  The Jan. 6th, 2021 protest in Washington was a commonplace event, the likes of which have taken place in almost every single democratic nation that has ever existed.

Protests against questionable government actions, in which State authorities are attempting to do something that a majority (or large minority) of the people strongly disagree with, are absolutely legitimate and are a not  uncommon occurance in an operational civil-society democracy.   The intense public protests - sometimes quite violent - against American involvment in the Vietnam War, were a major factor in President Nixon's decision to withdraw from the conflict, and hand Vietnam over to a Communist dictatorship.

You may not agree with what a democratic civil government does, but *intense* protest against actions that are viewed (correctly or incorrectly) as unwise or unlawful, is a basic fact of a democratic nation.   It is operational democracy in action.  The January 6th, 2021 protest against what were seen as questionable election results, could have turned into a blood-bath, like Tiananmen Square did in China, or is happening right now, in Kazakstan.  But it did not.

Protests are democracy in action.  And the American occupation of their legislature by the American people - without gunfire or bloodshed - shows a working American democracy in action.  It was a protest that went too far, and violence is always a bad idea.  But it did *not* turn into a bloodbath, with soldiers shooting unarmed, angry civilians.  It was basically the "Occupy Wall Street" movement, directed at the corrupt, privilaged officials in their Washington catbird seats.  No one wants violence - but protests are necessary, and to be expected, when election fraud takes place, and that age-old trick of "stuffing the ballot box" is used to frustrate the will of the ordinary people, and insert a government which does not have the will of the nation's citizens.

The January 6th, 2021 protest was exactly that.  It was a protest action, not an insurrection or a rebellion or any sort of "attack on democracy".  It simply *was* democracy in operation.

The fact that Kamala Harris does not recognize this, or seeks to obscure this fact, is deeply dishonest.  This level of dishonesty from an "elected" official is profoundly disgraceful.

Kamala Harris is not just a fool and a disgrace, she is a special kind of fraudster who assaults basic honesty - let's be very clear here.  She is a heartbeat away from being the Big Boss, and this is an ugly, high-risk, and dangerous situation.  Kamala Harris as US President is a perfect nightmare, and I suspect many Americans will simply not accept or tolerate this outcome.

History teaches us about large, powerful - and common - government lies - and the Biggest Lies are now coming from the Democrats.   This is just fascinating.    The former New York City Police boss was outraged, and explained things clearly.

Bernie Kerik calls Kamala Harris "an incompetent fool" and a "disgrace to her office", and we are with Bernie on this.   The USA federal government appears to be in a curious, dysfunctional free-fall.

https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/harris-kerik-jan-6-pearl-harbor/2022/01/07/id/1051429/

The times, they are changing.  O tempora, O mores!  OMG..  "Oh hell.", (to quote Mandrake, the British liason officer for NATO, in Kubrick's film, "Dr. Strangelove", when General Jack D. Ripper, the airforce base commander, informs Mandrake that a nuclear war with Russia has begun. )

[ Jan. 6, 2022 ] - Thoughts are Free - Yes, they are.

https://seed126.bitchute.com/bxPjR2fDtkfu/kqsPA4O4Dr1P.mp4

We must all hold hard to this truth, as we are tossed about by the great frauds of history.  Those in power write the history, and assert that Truth is Lies and Lies are Truth.  Of course the most recent US Presidential election was subjected to voter fraud, but when such a fraud is carried out successfully, the evidence disappears, and those who benefit from the fraud declare it to be the truth, and all who disagree are accused of telling a lie.   These are curious times, when cheaters prosper, and sit in the comfortable chairs of government power, and issue their diktats.

[ Jan. 5, 2022 ] - California Namazu? - Maybe that is actually it?  Rather like 1906?  There is always some loon predicting disaster - but what if there really is a megastorm ahead?  (Much worse than Covid..)   And maybe it is simply a major series of earthquakes.  There has not been a major earthquake in California for a very long time (all depends on what you define as "major", of course...)  California is a fractured zone of multiple plate-segments, resting on the edge of a significant subduction zone.   Warren Zevon wrote a very good song about it - when he was resting at the Hollywood Hawaian Hotel (which is now a shopping centre, sadly).   I was in Calif. back in 1984, San Fran, and then down the Pacific Coast Highway #1 (a very cool number for a road), to Santa Barbara and then LA and Van Nuys.  Very good time was had.   i truly love Californistan, despite the horrible-awful politics of the place.

If California was a seperate nation, it would be around the 7th or 8th richest nation in the world (depending how you do the State GDP accounting), without the rest of USA.  It is just an awful place to try to do business, and is now an insanely expensive place to live.   But if it drops into the sea, it will be bad for the markets, I suspect.   Google is wise to make their worldwide HQ in our awful downtown.  You freeze your arse off here, half the time, and the politics is as f**ked up as in Calif, (maybe worse, except Ontario is getting a lot better under Mr. Ford.)  

But the thought occurs - what if it is Mother Nature that hammers us next, instead of murderous neofacists and/or corrupt communists?    We always risk fighting the last war (and being handed our heads).    Perhaps the nameless sense of extreme dread that keeps me staring at the ceiling at night, perhaps it is (will be?) a natural phenomenon - a temporal future-echo from a million people driving to work in LA and San Franciso, and saying to themselves: "Huh?  WTF??!..." as the land drops away from underneath of them, and the tsunami waves hit.

The Japanese understand the hellstorm.   It is in their history.  Akira Kurosawa saw Tokyo completely destroyed, not just once - but twice, in his lifetime - from the 1923 Earthquake and fire, and the World War Two firebombings by American warplanes.  When he made Rashomon, he spent most of the film's budget building the ruined, smashed Gate.   Japan's sanitized history of the "Meiji Restoration", is much like the fake-nonsense we were taught in Canada as children, in the 1960's, about the 1837 Rebellion in "Upper Canada".  (It was glossed-over as a non-event.  But in fact, it was an intense, violent uprising against abusive Colonial rule that lasted for months, resulted in many rebels - one of whom was a Judge - being hung in the City Square of Toronto, and caused Canada to be put under British martial law for over 10 years.)

I recently discovered some documented history, of the Japanese period - which corresponds to the same period in Canada - the time from Perry's "Black Ships", to the collapse of the Shogun's government, and the Boshin War.  Modern Japan and modern Canada were born at almost exactly the same time - it is curious.  The formation of the "Dominion of Canada" was a clever response to an ugly, complex mess - much as the Meiji restoration was in Japan.  The period in Japan from the 1850's to 1870 was almost apocalyptic, much as it was in USA (the Civil War).   It was a time of extreme political and social conflict, plagues, and earthquakes.

Here is a historical analysis of a fascinating historical print, which is called: "A Compendium of Events and Record of the Rice Market from 1853 to 1868".   It is absolutely fascinating.  History is always written ex-post-facto - it is written afterwards, and narratives are constructed to make it appear that rational people took action and made things happen.  This is bullshit.   History is mostly random hellstorms that drop on people like bombs from space, without warning or explanation.   The windstorms of ignorance, bigotry, foolishness and luck, and the unwise actions of second & third-rate political opportunists seeking gain, tend to drive events, and every wise person knows this truth, if they look at things carefully.  History in action, is like an attack by pirates.  The best historical documents are diaries and daily journals.

https://pressbooks.bccampus.ca/meijiat150/chapter/apocalypse-now-an-alternate-view-of-the-bakumatsu-years-m-william-steele/

What is really interesting, is at the end of the article - the change in the price of rice, which shows the massive inflation that took place.  This period really was an "End Times" for Edo-period Japan - complete with comets in the sky, tsunami waves, terrible earthquakes, fires, wars, insurrections, and general violence, mayhem, starvation, and poverty for some, and new wealth and new technology for others. 

[ Jan. 4, 2022 ] - Saviour Machine - "President Joe, once had a dream... ".   I love how David Bowie was able to call the future, like some kind of rock-and-roll Nostradamus.   

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=U-AMec7yr7c

Ok, so a Duesenberg is right out.  Maybe if we move to California... rather not likely.   Looking now for a 1972 Pontiac LeMans.   Will post a photo soon.   

I've always been sensitive, and sometimes I get that same thing Larry Livingstone got when he looked at UP (Union Pacific) stock price, while taking time off in Atlantic City in 1906  - he wanted to short the stock so badly, and could not explain why.  He shorted a big position, in UP, just before the San Franciso earthquake, and the trade made him rich.   I don't trust any sort spiritual nonsense, or even spooky action at a distance either.   But I just feel so weirdly negative, and sense a looming hellstorm up ahead.   Maybe it's just some neurochemistry that is out of balance?

[ Jan. 3, 2022 ] - Death by Renaissance - So I found a copy of the 2016 article from Boomberg about Renaissance Technologies, and it was interesting.  The concept of seeking the weak signal, in all the market "noise" is key, and is what we try to do also.   They do it much better than we do.   Very much better.  :)

It is comical - we are only an insignficant nano-particle, yet we see the new efficiency of the markets, and it is scary.  I reach for the keyboard - and I see my exact trading being executed - every time, now.   And this is terrifying, since it means everyone knows everything now.  This is dangerous, since it means when the dislocation comes, it will have to wipe out *everybody*.  It will have to be a flash-crash, that does not recover.

There is not sufficient diversity of opinion now.  Everyone knows everything - so it means that price movements will not be (can not be) in any way smooth, or analogous to a continous functional process - stuff will just phase-jump to totally different orbits, and we will routinely go from a mild, low-volatility, relaxing, sustainable, small-is-beautiful kind of world - to an immediate roaring hell of holocaust and disaster - without there being any intermediate transitional period.

This further makes it nasty and difficult for small-holders and ordinary folks, who are just trying to pay the bills.  They will be wiped out, unless they are *very* careful.  It also means that the guys like the big hedge funds and the censorship-oriented, government-supporting leftist technology companies, will *absolutely* be able to capture it all.   The unholy alliance of the big-tech mavens and market-dominators, and the harvest-everything / watch-everything data-driven neofascist Deep-State, will be functionally able to exert complete social control over all aspects of human existence.  Scary thoughts...

There will be *no* wiggle-room.  And no locus of opportunity where anything of any significance or market-value can be created, by any entity except the Controllers of the State, and the BigTech-BigData trackers and managers.

Who the hell wants to try to compete in this kind of zero-opportunity, total-social-control kind of world?    You cannot win, if all the cards are pre-programmed by the other guys.  It's like playing poker, where all your cards are seen, yet you cannot see anyone elses.  It's nuts.

I seriously am starting to think that the January 6th riotgirls and riotboys who forced their way into the Washington Central Services Sh/thole, might actually have been the good guys, trying to save their world from what we all know is happening.

With total social control of the process, by Big Government and Big Tech, and complete exclusion from the opportunity process, it means the small-holders are dead.   They don't know it yet, but they are.   They have no chance to win anything at all.

And the nature of the way any kind of transitional process plays out now (ie. everyone knows everything, so there can be no smooth transitional events anymore), it means that everything will look fine and lovely and peaceful, until just one day before the War starts, the riots begin, and the world is destroyed by the virus, extreme violence and mass-hate.    There won't be any warning.  No warning at all.

The markets will have to destroy Renaissance Technologies, just like they destroyed LTCM - but if the Renaissance boy and girls are smart, they will be able to avoid the collapse.    But we suspect that it is the very success of the regulators and the opportunity-restricters (the Big-Tech Corps, and the Big-Regulators of the State), that will likely have to be the mechanism that programs-in the breakdown.  The outsized success of Renaissance Tech is a prime example of the problem.   The big-guys with all the data, and the nanosecond trading ability, can win every hand.  It's like playing in a gangster-run, corrupt casino.  Good for them, very bad for everyone else.

The world is not balanced now, and there is no opportunity in the hyper-regulated, State-controlled, freedom-restricted future, for the small guys.   We are all on board "Tomato Andy's" Germanwings aircraft, and no amount of axe-swinging will get the door broken down, before the little happyboy flies us all into the ground.    This is a not-good future scenario, and it seems far too likely. 

The next time the People come to the Washington Regulatory Sh/thole, they better make sure they have a very clear plan, and can implement an executive outcome that does not involve them all being rounded up and put in prison by corrupt Demo-rats who fake up the election process.

Time for some change.  Let's Defund the Demo-rats.   Let's Remove the Regulators.  Let's Go, Brandon!

[Jan. 1, 2022 ] - Momento Mori - Should be the motto of every software developer.  Except the bad software never actually dies, it just gets open-sourced and put up on github, and then spread thru the world like a wicked virus.   Quite hilarious, actually.  :)   I remember I made a clay skull for Grade 11 Art Class - pretty accurate, solid, but then I hollowed out enough to ensure it could be fired in the kiln, with a flat-white glaze.   I displayed it in the basement at home, and my mother put a little sign under it, which read:  "What you are, I once was.   What I am, you will become."    Cheerful thoughts for another year of death and anger.   Happy New Year.

I thought it might be fun to acquire a Duesenberg, from the 1930's.   Ha ha ha ha.  If you have one million US dollars, that is not enough to buy an original one that has been properly restored.  They run upwards of 2 million or more USD's now.  Jay Leno has a few.   The big J models were all built in 1928 and 1929, but it took roughly 8 years to sell them all.  The company was hit hard by the stock market crash of 1929.  By 1937, the company went bankrupt.

The Duesenberg cars were amazingly advanced, and were the most powerful car one could buy in the 1920's, with over 200+ horsepower from a straight-8 cylinder engine, that was technically very advanced.  The car even had hydraulic brakes, which is standard design now, but was a radical (genius) idea, back in the 1920's. 

They are rolling works of engineering art.  One can buy replica models, made in the 1980's and the 1990's, but they are not the real thing.   Here are recent auction results, with little pictures of each car:

https://www.glenmarch.com/cars/results/quick/Duesenberg

[ Dec. 31, 2021 ] - Experimental - The license-plate in New Hampshire says: "Live Free or Die".  We always liked that.  Seems to be the right model.   The nations of the world which are run by gangster criminals, where the enslaved people live, should expect change to come.  Eventually, the enslaved decide that death is better than slavery, and so the leaders of terrorist, gulag states, have two sets of enemies - their own people, and the free, democratic world, which is disgusted and horrified at the cruelty and ugly absusiveness of the slave-states which use murder, terror and prisons to enforce political control of their citizens.

It's funny about Russia.  The Russians actually were the ones who *won* the "Cold War".  The Russian people were the winners, because they got to throw out the murderous communist vermin which had siezed control of their nation, and ran it for the personal benefit of sadistic, abusive "Party Members".     The Americans were just spectators.   The Russians managed to clean up their own house, and free themselves from their 20th-Century "Mongol Yoke".   It was a fine and impressive accomplishment.  They should bulldoze Lenin's Tomb, and build a statue to Boris Yeltsin, a man of courage and vision, in a world of toadys and timeservers.

Democracy and democratic freedoms are under assault again, in so many places, both within the big democratic nations, and on their fringes, in the foreign lands.  Mainland China is turning into North Korea, and running retrograde at a frightening pace.   The Chinese people will need courage and focus, to stop and correct the error-that-will-lead-to-horror that is emerging at the top of their gangster State.   A "One-Party" murder-state cannot survive.  We suspect this Xi character will attempt to sieze a third term in power, and this will be the beginning of the end for China's great experiment.

China's legal, legitimate national government is the government in Taiwan.   Xi knows this, and so he seeks to destroy it.   He will try to, and this will give us the War.   Japan will have to re-arm for self-defense, and Putin will take this chance to re-take Ukraine, and begin again, the mass-killings that characterized the Stalin era of mass-theft and mass-murder.

Putin and Xi must both be removed.  The experiments are reaching conclusions.   We fear the lab may explode, and set fire to the whole world-city.

[ Dec. 29, 2021 ] - Blue North - Time for Winter.   All the Best for 2022.  Snow has come back, and so has Covid.  Curious.  We wonder what will be the next virus.  Maybe "Phi"?  As in: "Fee Phi Foe Fum"? ("It's to the graveyard you must come...! ").  We doubt things will ever get back to "normal".   What folks don't realize, is how profoundly unusual - and rather surprisingly nice - the period from 2009 to 2019 really was.    It really was a lovely, statistical outlier of surprising peace and impressive, rising global prosperity.   Almost all of human history is typically just not like that.   Good luck for 2022.  We will need it.     :)

[ Dec. 26, 2021 ] - Box It Up!- All the snow melted.  We got a Green Christmas, which is fine with us.  I am so impressed by the James Webb Telescope launch.   The actual images of the deployment into space, and the opening of the solar-collector array, was very good to see.   With the James Webb telescope, we should be able to better image directly, exoplanets around nearby stars.  That will be useful.

Our research suggests we are most likely, the only place in the universe were life developed.   We are probably it.  The entire rest of the universe - a very, very big place - might be completely inert.   In fact, given the wild, extreme, insane number of extraordinary, low-probability events that had to happen - in sequence - to engineer life-creation here, it seems unlikely that the 1 / < a very, very big number>  low likelyhood event (all those very small probabilities, multiplied together, produces an *extremely* small number), occurred anywhere else.   

So, *we* are the Founders.   Wise people should get used to this idea, and stop wasting time chattering about nonsense like religion and social-safety and such, and just get busy building starships, even if they will take several thousand years to get anywhere useful.  The contents of the ships should probably be wet muck, lots of different bacteria, and enough plutonium to keep the whole sludge-bucket warm - at least above absolute zero.

This wee, wet planet, is almost certainly, the only place where self-replicating DNA evolved, to give the inert-system universe a *memory* across time-periods, so that randomness can drive improvement.  (The more randomized the DNA sequences are, the more information content the molecule can hold, and the more complex proteins can be generated by the system.  You just need randomness to rattle and shake your way up the tree-of-life.)   With DNA-sequence-encoding, the more you mess it up, the better it works (since it can encode more data), and so period-by-period improvement is possible, based on any sort of system-recognized incentivization.  Just to get living bacteria is amazing and unlikely - and to get self-aware big lifeforms like us humans, is really beyond belief, except we are here, aren't we?  

So, we are it.

Your job is to make babies and spaceships.   Nothing much else really makes any difference, at all, does it?    Also, try to avoid dying.   Every day one is alive, is really quite impressive and fine.  :)

[ Dec. 25, 2021 ] - Merry Christmas to Everyone, Indeed.  - We hope 2022, makes all your wishes, come true.  

If you wish to be evil, and darkly hack, you can trade your White Hat, for the Black.  But be advised, the world is crazy, and is run by dark forces, cruel and lazy. 

If you traffic in evil and seek the bad, you can find it easily and add to what's sad.   The evil you do, will rot your heart, and fester within you, as you play the part. 

It's better to be good, and work for what's best, 

Rather than have the evil, burst from your chest.

[ Dec. 21, 2021 ] - The Good Doctors - This is a link to an article about the general failure to treat Covid-19 effectively, by most in the medical establishment, and the needless deaths that have resulted.   We tried to do our best to get actionable information out as fast as possible - only to have curious, dishonest reactions from the medical and regulatory establishment.   Hydroxochloroquine is a safe and effective drug, as are the various anti-inflamation drugs.  They can work, and other treatments can also work effectively.  Covid-19 can be very successfully treated.  Vaccination is a good idea, but treatment is also effective and available.  Yet dishonesty and the abusive arrogance of the regulatory establishment prevented information and treatment options from being made widely available.

One should read this article in detail.   It is seriously important:

https://www.realclearinvestigations.com/articles/2021/12/21/did_dismissals_of_safe_outpatient_drugs_cause_needless_covid_deaths_dissenting_doctors_say_yes_808045.html

Americans especially,  must remember the failures and abusive deceptions of the various *authorities*, when the next election time rolls around.

It is critical to the safety and security of the United States, that the abusive and dishonest forces that now control Washington, be completely removed.  They must be replaced by good people with curious minds, who are honest.   

It is not good for the World, if USA is run by fraudsters, liars, cheaters and socialists.  The Left, because of it's dangerous errors and extreme dishonesty, should be expunged from the political and regulatory process.    This is an important task, that all right-thinking, honest people must dedicate themselves to making happen.

[ Dec. 15-17, 2021 ] - Running on Empty - Here are some small words of advice.  It you wish to trade to make money (as opposed to most amateurs, who can be shown to simply derive emotional and psychological satisfaction, from having a "hand in the game"), then I would caution that you might want to do something else. 

Trading profitably is just awful.  It is emotionaly draining, and is a deeply annoying and unpleasant occupation.  To make money, one must endure - routinely - events which are much like having a car door closed on your hand - annoyingly painful.  This is just how it is.  We have had a very good year, and yet as it winds down, I am feeling disgusted and exhausted.  Our models and methodologies are working well, but I am not.   Curious.

The problem is, is that I can vividly see or sense some a coming disaster, as I have studied in some detail the nature of the inflation problem.  I expected vastly more forceful responses from the various Central Banks, yet we got basically nothing at all.   I fear we are seeing a classical "groupthink" madness, where neither the government officials, nor the Central Bankers are willing or able to do anything meaningful to stop the economic insanity we are already tracking very rapidly towards.

And our AI model has now turned up, and we have missed a major move.  For me, this is much worse than losing money.    This has happened to me before, but it still makes me mad.  I can handle losses, but missing another run is just lethal in this environment.   It's like missing getting in the Titanic's lifeboat.  The outcome is pretty clearly evident, and it make me annoyed.

We have actually done really quite well this year - except we are using Canadian Dollarettes, and the actions of the clown politicians we have running this nation, have undone much of our efforts. 

We have run hard, and done well, only to have the entire ship-of-state slide under our feet, away from us at a rate that pretty much matches our forward progress.  It is just hilarious, really.   And it looks like it is being programmed to get much worse.

If you are in cash, you are maybe sitting on a rotting pile of decaying assets, that will lose it's value at a rate that will roughly track any gains expected in the future.   The coming inflation will be lethal, we suspect.

Our research suggests we will be lucky just to match the rate-of-increase of the government-generated, Canadian central-bank *ASSISTED*, expected increases in the level of inflation, going forward.     Current Federal fiscal policies suggest a 40 to 50 cent (USD) Canadian dollar is not out of the question.   The Trudeau regime appears determined to seriously destabilize our economy.    This bodes badly for the future.

The debts that USA and Canada have now, and are taking on in the future, will simply not be paid down with real money.  The dollars of both nations will have to be made to become near-worthless, just to make the national book-entries add up and balance correctly.    Maturing bonds will be paid off - but the payoff will be made in deeply depreciated government money.  

The inflation will have to run hard, the money will have to made near-worthless, and the older folks will be killed - with certainty - either by weaponized Chinese virus-agents, or by cancer, or by the creeping poverty caused by the inflation-driven economic decay.

The absurd economic message that gets transmitted by this knowledge is:  "Don't waste time trading - or even *investing*  It is a Fool's Project."  This is problematic.  Speculative investment is often ugly - and is fraught with risk and grief, and leads to sleepless nights, bad digestion of your food, and general all around anger and frustration.   Unless you get hooked up with a Google or a Microsoft in it's early stage of development, you will just be ground down to the mean, and your portfolio gains will be vapourized by inflation, unless you can post a serial run of 25 to 30 percent annual gains for 10 or 12 years running.   And that is typically unlikely.   We have done ok, - but projections going forward from here, suggest this might be much more difficult.

In the end, we all arrive at the same destination, so nothing really matters, of course.

I hope this weblog might be useful for someone, someday, who reads it.  It records a truly strange time in our personal, company and national history.   We have done ok, but just ok.  Not great.  Just ok.   And that was really not good enough. 

I could end this with the final words of W. C. Fields, on his death-bed, as said to his lifelong friend "Carlotta".   He said:  "Goddamn the whole fucking world, and everyone in it.   Except of course, you, Carlotta."     Thoughts to live by?   A bit extreme, of course.  And curious,  since he was a comedian, who make people laugh out loud - really quite a noble and valuable service to the world.  He did well, moved the big needle, and made the world a more charming place.   :)

I rather like the last words of Marie Antoinette.  As she was led up to the guillotine platform, she accidentally stepped on the executioner's foot.   Her last words were:  "Pardonnez-moi, monsieur."   The mass-psychotic horror of the French Revolution, provides a clear example of what the outcome of very bad economic policy can look like.    We should avoid that.

My favourite "last words" is from Nostradamus, who nailed his final prediction, by saying, as he lay in bed:  "Tomorrow, I shall no longer be here", and then dying in his sleep.  Good for him.   It's really very nice to nail a forecast!  :)

[ Dec. 14, 2021 ] - Bad Grammar: Future Perfect Tense - We are more than just a little worried, truth be told.  My model is pointing violently down, yet Mr. Market is bushy-tailed and frisky, in full Santa-Rally mode.  Everything is too perfect, too fully discounted.  The entire trading portfolio is in cash, and I know this is the wrong time of year, for this position.  But it's not the model - it's this awful, weird feeling of dread, that has moved our positions to crappy cash - and the property-market (such as it is) meltdown in China.  The Chinese want their cake, they want eat it - they have eaten it, and now they want to shoot at us, using Russian hypersonic cruise missiles.   This is just not a cool combo. 

I respect Mr. Putin for driving as a "bomber" in St. Petersburg, back in 1991 - good for him.  I actually have serious respect for the man, for having done so.  We all have had to take low-level-jobs at times in our lives - that is how boys grow up to become viable men - learning to take orders, and do the really dirty or low-level jobs.  If Putin was an honest free-lance taxi driver, then good for him.   Probably that makes him a better man and a man that can be trusted.    I have a friend in the medical profession, who also drove a taxi in Vancouver,  when we were both in school.  I worked as a Teaching Assistant  and he drove a taxi.  We both did free-lance programming.    Crazy times - niether of us had any money - yet our lives were like a Chekov story (that excellent one, about the young medical students living in an apartment with no heat, in St. Petersburg.  Just such a great story. )

The US market needs to dial in a roughly 10% correction (that's 3,500 on the DJIA) pretty soon, or we are looking at the "Mother of All Meltdowns" in the next 12 to 18 months.    The world economy is running on debt.   It is like a good guitar-player, who has been up for 3 days, and has been taking benzedrine and amphetamines to stay awake - and he is playing great - except he is starting to hallucinate, and see little yellow men, made out of triangles, running into his peripheral vision.  They are carrying guitars, and waving them around their heads.  He is still playing OK, but you know, that the whole process cannot go on much longer, without the band takes a rest.

This seems to be where we are in the current market cycle.   The whole world is stretched on debt it cannot repay, unless crazy levels of monetary stimulus are applied by the central banks. 

The Central Banks are actively monetizing the national debts of most western nations, and national governments are running what are effectively wartime-level deficits.  In Canada, the Bank of Canada has been told to effectively ignore inflation and focus on "job-creation", which is simply not the job of a national central bank.   Historically, the Bank of Canada has been good at fighting the menace of inflation, but under the Trudeau regime, it has now been told to adjust it's mandate.  

This is very bad policy.   We have a dangerously irresponsible collection of lightweights running the country now, and they are actively acting to damage the national economy.  It's pretty sad, and disturbing.   The national economy is being unwisely goosed by a combination of absurdly low interest rates, outright money-printing, and out-of-control government spending on "pandemic stimulus" and "social programs", designed to generate votes for the current Liberal gang in control of things at the Federal level.  

The effect is like benzedrine on the central nervous system.  Investment process itself is at risk of being systemically damaged - cash investments are going into low-quality silly crap,  like cryptocurrencies (all the risks of fiat money, with none of the legal protections..), and junk bonds, and junkier private-equity investments.  

Everywhere around the world, we see the beginnings of runaway inflation scenarios taking hold.   We've seen this movie before, in the 1970's.   It leads to economic stagnation, low and then negative growth, and declining stock markets.   We suspect the market will catch on a bit quicker to what is being implemented, than happened in the mid 1970's.  Back then, it took years for the real economic rot to set in, as the inflationary price increases hid the outright economic-halt that had happened - first triggered by the Arab "Oil Shock", where gasoline prices were doubled - and then doubled again, with petrol being repriced in "litres" from "gallons", to mask the magnitude of the damage. 

Gasoline in Canada went from 45 cents per *gallon* in 1972, to 50 to 60 cents per *litre* within just a few years, an Imperial gallon being equal to 4.2 litres.    The period of 1974 to 1980 was a period of outright economic collapse.  The intensity of the collapse was masked by the very high level of inflation that was engineered by the extreme levels of very unwise Federal government spending. 

An astonishing level of economic damage was engineered (and magnified) by the first Trudeau regime - that fellow being the father of the current prime minister who now holds power.    Watching events play out now in Canada, is like watching an awful remake of what was already a really bad movie.

One does not know whether to laugh, cry or vomit.   Perhaps all three?  What seems difficult, is to remain *invested* in any sort of financial scheme that implies the future will be an improvement over the past.    This just does not seem to be on, given the events we are seeing play out.

I've just  seen that Coller Capital in the UK  is trying to sell itself.  Good decision.   Unload now, before the Meltdown Reset Event (MRE?)  gets underway.  It will have to happen in all deficit-addicted nations, we suspect.

These very long market run-ups, fueled by massive money-supply expansion and over-the-top Government spending,  have a nasty tendancy to run in reverse (at much faster speeds),  once the sand-pile starts to tumble down.   It's a process seen all through history, again and again, and again.   It seems to be time for it to begin once more, around about now.

[ Dec. 13, 2021 ] - Rising Sun - Readings in Randomness are educational, and much is due to luck, of course.    But the naive folks who would dismiss all (or most) investment success in the markets as being the result of luck, do not accurately consider the possibility that one may simply develop algorithmic methods to assist one's self in becoming more lucky.  

Our research suggests that this is quite possible.   There are processes and procedures that can be developed and then followed, which enhance the role of luck - or which can be shown to improve outcomes in situations where one is dealing with *wild* randomness.  This is the kind of randomness, where it (the generator) is really most certainly *not* random - but it appears to be random, because  we are condemned to always have insufficient information. 

The market is not an opponent or an adversary to be beaten or defeated.  The market is far too much like a drunken female dance-partner, with a bad attitude, and an intense and variable desire.    A rational actor or agent, (or simply, a man) in a world of insanity, and madness, simply must learn to embrace the madness when (and if) he can, and learn to let go, and seek gentle protection, when the screaming and the crying begins, and heavy objects are being thrown.

When women (or men) act crazy, one simply removes oneself from the madness ( I recall the wisdom of my father, when my mother would have a shouting fit - he would adjourn to the Golf Club - until very late at nite, and only return home when her screaming had subsided.)   We observe the markets behaving in a simliar fashion - excited to the point of hysterical foolishness at times of monetary stimulus (the managers have to buy something - and often it is APOS that does the best (APOS => Any Piece of Shit).   And then, as the broken dishes are being swept up, and you are no longer lost in that Mexican border town, and the overall liquidity conditions are very different (suddenly, no one has any spare money), the market sells off hard, and even the good, quality stocks get discounted deep down, as everything is heaved overboard to try to keep the sinking ship floating.

A simple understanding of this wave-like cyclic process, and the dry-powder (liquid reserves of cash) to take advantage of it, can lead to significant investment and speculative success.

And this success, is simply *not* the result of randomness.  It is the result of experience, mostly.   Taleb himself is an interesting example of this - he comes from a family of serial financial losers - upper-class Lebanese pseudo-aristos,  who routinely blew themselves up by making stupid investments in junky, third-world sh/t-hole economies  (and remember - most of the world is a sh/t hole, because most *leaders* are corrupt, goal-seeking, street-smart, back-shooting criminals, under their surface polish).   Taleb's run of financial success is absolutely *not* due to luck.  The man made a serious effort to *not* repeat the errors of his foolish and arrogant relatives, and he succeeded smartly.

We believe that *track records* can contain information that is useful.   We are extremely sensitive to the role of luck and good-fortune, and we have explict procedures to avoid analysis paralysis (the Buridan's Donkey problem is a good analogy).

Years and years ago, we discovered what we call: "Fenstein's Lemma" - named after a fictional character who was created at our University Pub.   Fenstein's Lemma says simply:  " If you are going to get lucky, then you will get lucky - no power can stop it.  And if you are *not* going to get lucky tonight, then no skill or strategy can be executed that can make it happen.  Your success or failure at the girl-getting game, will be determined by forces and fates completely beyond your control."

I saw the truth of Fenstein's Lemma so many times in my life, that I have to accept that there is much truth there.   And yet, fortune does favour the brave.   Or, in Woody Allen's words: "Success can be had, just by showing up."  That is also true.

Sometimes the market will give you rewards no matter what you do.  And other times,  you can do everything right, and get your head handed to you, and suffer an ugly and painful loss.

Taleb won, and became a lucky fellow, just by getting his arse to America - New York in particular.  It would not matter if he chose Dentistry, or Finance.   The key was that he took action, to expose himself to quality luck.   If you want to win the lottery of life, you have to buy a ticket, and get yourself to the place, where luck becomes possible.  And then you have to have the balls and the brains - and the courage - to place your bet, and let the rolling dice do their roll.

This is an algorithm.  You also have to be careful, not to blow yourself up, so you can make many bets, and not be wiped out of the game - whether that game is dentistry, or money management.  The two life choices are remarkable similar professions, actually.   To be successful in either one, a number of significant pre-conditions have to be met - hard work, study, education, business promotion, a professional commitment to honesty and a pursuit of quality results, and so on.

We have been lucky - and we know it quite well.   But luck can be fabricated, much like any device.  This is not recognized by many folks.  But it can be.  Some guys are more lucky than others.   And I have observed - in a lifetime of real, honest observation - that most people seem to get what they go after.  Not right away - but eventually.   Luck plays a huge role - but things are not actually quite as random as they seem.    Things are actually *vastly* less random than they appear.  

And even just a little statistical research, and it's correct application in the whirling maelstrom of madness that characterizes human behaviour - can yield absurdly attractive results, if one follows the basic algorithms for luck-maximization.    This seems so silly and counter-intuitive - and yet one can execute and implement field-trials, and obtain these surprising runs of luck, that are actually quite disturbing to a believer in the research of the fictional  Dr. Fenstein.  (He really was a fictional construct - no such connection to any actual live person is meant or should be inferred here.)   

If you are up all night - to get lucky (as the song suggests) - and you go out and go after what you seek - be it investment success or pretty women - you most likely will succeed, eventually.   But realize - it will be one or the other, probably.  It is very rare, to get both.   The old adage seems to hold - lucky in cards, or lucky in love.    Make sure to decide which it is, you really want.    :)

Perhaps there is also a third choice.  To be lucky in battle - to win a great war - perhaps that might be the best choice of all, as your greatest win may come from being prepared - and yet not having to even have the war.    This might be the luckiest outcome of all, for us crazy humans.  

[ Dec. 10, 2021 ] - Floating - Cream rises - but remember - excrement also floats.   What you see, may be an illusion.  In fact, it is almost certain to be.  We all have Grand Illusions, don't we?  

The entire Chinese economy is built on bogus money, and unsustainable 1-party communist rhetoric.   There is *no* political competition in that economy - only a hierarchy of political cronyism.   We suspect that this tragic web of fraud and deception cannot be sustained forever.  The people of China have tasted economic freedom, and at some point, they will insist on having political freedom.   They are a proud and noble people who have 3000 years of history to draw upon, but they also have the experience of the Free World to see.     They will - at some point in the future - most likely choose to be masters in their own houses - rather than slaves.

And let's all be very clear:  Communism is slavery for the people, with a small group of rich, powerful elite masters sitting at the top.    The elite can rape and abuse the pretty girls, and get away with it. This is the honest truth of things, that the communist elite is afraid of.   They are evil and corrupt.  This is a perfectly proven fact.   Mao was the equal of Stalin and Hitler.  And they put his hideous face on their money.  Amazing!   How much longer can this grotesque lie be maintained?

This is a deeply ugly situation, and the Chinese are no different than the rest of us.   It's almost certainly better to die fighting for freedom, than to live as a slave.    I don't think this is just a Western World idea.    I think it is deep inside of the very thing that makes us human.

We see the entire communist matrix of fraud and deception failing, unless signifcant changes are made.  Yet the forces of corruption and cruelty are powerfully entrenched, and it will take great effort to correct the current Global Error that is in current operation.   The coming correction, will not be a gentle process.  There are too many really bad people in positions of very great power.   We had thought the evolutionary process might actually work.   But given the idiotic awfulness of war-research, laboratory-fabricated Covid, and the hideous cruelty of existing communist evil, it is now clear, that the evolutionary approach is running retrograde, and that now, a revolutionary approach will be needed.

Some selective bombing of key Communist military targets, might just help things along, as would efforts to engineer the wholesale destruction of all Chinese communist aggressive assault technology, which is being actively deployed.  

The leaders of the Western Democratic nations are naive and foolish, if they think a kinetic conflict with China's Communist Party can be avoided.   We are now of the opinion, that it will be needed to free the Chinese people from their yoke of slavery and servitude, much as was needed in the case of the Japanese people.    This is just painfully obvious now.   We cannot deny this reality.

We are of the opinion that regime-change must come to mainland China.   It would be best if it can come from the inside - from the Chinese people themselves.   But this is sadly, unlikely.    

Our small, difficult world, cannot afford to have large sections of our populations, dominated by governments composed of brutal sadistic killers, rapists and criminals.   One way or another, we will have to clean up our planetary homeland, even if it means turning a lot of fat rotting eggs into scrambled material on the floor, to be fed to the dogs.

[ Dec. 9, 2021 ] - End Times - The future's uncertain, and the past is always near.   We see a blistering implosion, based on the ever-growing constellation of major players who will not be paying their bills.  Cause for concern, it its.   As Yoda might say...

Inflation - in USA, for October 2021, is expected to come in Friday, at a 6.8% annual rate - which is a very big number.  You have to go back to the early 1980's, when Ron Reagan was President, to see inflation rates that big.  But in the 1970's, the numbers were even bigger - officially around 10 to 12%, but in reality, close to 20% in Canada.  Trudeau Version 1.0 even created a "Wage and Prices Control Program"  - called the "Anti-Inflation Board".  It was the worst example of bad-economics Liberal thinking, that I have ever seen.  But it was also wonderful, because I got a summer job, working for the place, and learned how to be a really effective consulting economist.  

It was just a fantastic, most excellent learning experience - I saw it all from the inside, and it was wildly educational - in both theory and practice.   The Nurses Union in Quebec, had just gone on strike - summer of 1976 - and jacked up the Quebec Government for a 20% annual wage increase - which of course, would be paid by the taxpayers of that difficult province.  It was like a course in economic science-fiction.  Business and professional people were sent Government forms - AIB Compliance Reports - and the idea was that price-increases were not to happen, unless different work was being done, or different products were being made.   They had these French leftist guys design this nonsense, and it was of course, completely unworkable.   It was Volker's 20% interest-rates - the move up in rates from 1979 to 1981 - which ended the inflation.  The AIB was a bogus political exercise, and I recall how one French lefty economist quit in disgust, when he found out accountants raising their fees, were not going to be fined or jailed for lifting their prices.  It was a real political theatre-of-the-absurd exercise.    But it was fascinating.  The guy I worked for - he had so much Gov't experience, he had decided he was an Anarchist, he told me.  Most of the smart kids were Chicago-School monitarists, and knew the AIB was absolute nonsense.  But I did all this research - and discovered so many interesting things - and I got *paid* to do research I might otherwise have had to do on my own.

Jerome Powell said the USA inflation would be "transitory".  Why would he say that?   And why does our tiny little research shop, know more than all the PhD economists in Washington, at the Federal Reserve?  We said it would not be "transitory".   The whole problem with inflation - is that it falls into a class of dangerously self-re-enforcing phenomenon.    Once that big inflationary snowball starts rolling down the mountain-side, it gets bigger - quickly -  and is more difficult to stop before it rolls over the little village in the valley.   And with the labour shortages and product transport and distribution problems we are seeing, this will only feed the process, and magnify it further.   It may take *years* (and high-interest rates) to stop it - just like it did last time.

Why would they simply hand-wave all this away, and suggest inflation will be "transitory"?   It is such a weirdly curious approach - as if they have all become political people, and have started to believe they can just make stuff up, and say it, and the sheep-people will just baaa baaa baaa and follow along with the nonsense that is being asserted from important mouths.  It's comical, really.

We have to start teaching honest skeptical-thinking in the schools again, and also demand that free-speech be aggressively protected by law.   So much on offer, is just wrong.    Most of just about everything that the "woke" Leftist elite kids are mouthing about, is just wrong - but so are the "wise experts" also.  They are not just a little-bit wrong - they are just crazy wrong - so wrong, you can trade against them with a shoestring, and pay your bills with the regular cash-flow that can be generated.   

This is just not a good sign.     The clowns who run things now, are gonna steam the big ship-of-state right up onto the rocks, and I fear they may drown us all, in the so obviously coming tsunami of conflict.   

You don't jawbone about "Democracy" and "Freedom".   You build really good, effective weapons, and you require that every able-bodied man (and maybe even woman), *must* learn how to use them - and that includes the science and math skills, as well as guns and armed aircraft.   Every single adult should have military training - and should be available on a moments notice, to take action to crush the Forces of Evil.    Example:  The United Nations should send - right now, today - a large, expiditionary force, into Myanmar, to free the democratically elected leader of that country, and absolutely *crush* the brutal junta that has illegally siezed power there.    The whole project would take about two weeks, if done quickly and correctly.   Even if it was necessary to leave the entire country a smoking ruin, that would be acceptable.    But after what Biden did in Afghanistan, we know the Americans are unable or unwilling to take this action - and this failure is actively damaging democracy everywhere. 

Ideally, it should be a Russia-USA joint operation, with assistance by NATO.  We should accept that Russia is a nominal Democracy, and admit them to the Club of Democratic Nations.  They have a nice, big, land-army, and they know how to use it.  Give Myanmar to them, if necessary.  What is not acceptable, is the idiotic status quo, where a democratically elected leader is put in prison, and a gangster junta of murdering psychopaths is free to terrorize the place, and routinely murder anyone who opposes the horror it has created..

In a few years, *inflation* will be the least of our troubles, if we do not make immediate course-corrections very soon.

[ Dec. 8, 2021 ] - Para Bellum - Not really any other option, if the nation-States of the Free World want to maintain peace and security.  We wonder if they will.  See, there is all this debt in the world - way, way past anything that might be considered reasonable.  With zero-bounded rates of return on financial assets, the financial system is bent badly, but still not broken.  When rates are normalized - as they must be at some point - we are either going to have runaway inflation, or a debt-bubble-burst scenario - and either one, will impact the bond markets directly, and the stock market indirectly.  And once we blow up everyone's financial wealth, all the historical models suggest we will be looking at a period of sustained and significant conflict - across and among all sorts of domain-spaces.  Some of our research sees these event-maps already beginning to become evident.

Christmas holidays - when everyone is relaxed, drunk,  and feeling fat from too much turkey - would be a very good time to launch an attack, especially if you plan to have your war be over quickly.    So many indicators quietly have switched from green to red.   Maybe plaid, next?  :)

Also:  We are researching the methodologies of "information confrontation".  It is genius.  It was used extensively by the British, during WW2, against Germany.  An example of its success was in delaying the movement of the Panzers, during the Normandy invasion, which might have been able to check the American-led rapid movement inland. 

In modern terms, we just saw yesterday, how Amazon's marketing efforts and delivery system were stopped, because of an AWS network-failure issue.  Now, stopping or degrading the network information flows, stops or degrades basic economic activity.  The opportunity for effective "information confrontation" assaults is substantially magnified by our significant dependence on AWS (Amazon Web Services) style "cloud computing" platforms.   Many companies rely on this technology to deliver their service offerings now.  If you can degrade the network, you can degrade the basic production and consumption engine of a modern, free-market economy.   This is a non-trivial risk factor, which for the most part, lies hidden to most war planners & military folks.

What is the point of "information confrontation"?  The idea is to simply introduce confusion and mis-direction into the minds of your adversary.  That is enough - that you make him unsure, and unclear, as to what action should be taken.  It's like throwing sand into the eyes of someone who is trying to kill you.  You only need to stop him long enough to let you draw your weapon, and fire with some sort of accuracy.   This is the essence of "information confrontation", and it is a very smart and clever strategic - or tactical - approach to conflict.

It is also the current picture of the modern world.   Mis-direction and fabricated confusion is exactly what our adversarial entities want to see happen.   Know this.  Expect it.  And have a plan that does not rely on regular, real-time updates to your datasets, as the more important your plan, the more likely it will be subjected to carefully crafted mis-direction efforts.

[ Dec. 7, 2021 ] - Puff the Magic Dragon's Breath - Model said to bail, so we did.  I did not want to, given the strong technical position that seems to have developed, but the model has been weirdly accurate lately, so we bailed.  Longs are gone.

The wild whipsaw action has filled the trading account with dollarettes, which are drifting up in value as I key this.  Very, very strange times.   I seem  to have pretty much recovered from whatever flu-thing I had caught - maybe it was Omicron?  Unclear.  We are all double-vaccinated here, and feeling fine.  It's minus 5 celsius outside, there is two inches of snow on the ground, and fluffly flakes are falling...  We have a fat fire in the wood-stove, and it looks like we might just survive the Winter.  :)   

The investment & trading business has gone well this year, and the technology side of things is ticking along well also.  Such strange times - I know lawyers who are working 15 hour days - crazy busy, and feeling a tad tired.   Folks in the City are drifting back to their offices, if they can, just to get free of the "working from home" ball-and-chain.   Working from home is not great.  It seems humans really benefit from the spatial/psychological distance between work-life and home-life.   In our case, the farm-home IS the business, and we know how it can be difficult.

But there are many much more worse options.  On balance, the systems and process and procedures are working well.    I *greatly* enjoy not having to ever appear at a client "office".   I found it curious, that most office environments were curiously awful - same kinds of people in every client office - you could label them by their personalities, and it is so very nice, that we are in a position to avoid that world completely. 

I think the Covid-19 lockdowns and restrictions have permenantly altered social models - both personal and business-related.   So very much of human activity now, is pointless, un-needed busywork - mandated by silly, or poorly-designed, badly-thought-out procedures and requirements.    There are simply huge chunks of silly activity that is just not needed at all.

And empty cities, with streets devoid of traffic, are really, really attractive.

Perhaps we must learn to love the virus - and of course, weaponize it - since that is almost certainly where and how it originated.    If that is the case, then we can easily predict that there will be *many* more similar pathogens in our near future.   And we also must admit, that perhaps this phenomenon is semi-natural in origin - and that it is nature's way of keeping the planetary ecology in an operational state.

Do we get Covid-22?  And then Covid-23? ... coming every year, each autumn, like the Beaujolais Nouveau?  Perhaps...   (I recall wandering down Queen Street West with a lady friend, and stopping into the Raclette, many years ago - and sampling several fine Nouveau's one cold Fall evening.  It was a lovely time... There was a time, when the City was very nice.)

[ Dec. 6, 2021 ] - RANDomness in Santa Monica - I'm reading in some detail, a report from RAND Corporation, on how full-on war with Russia might play out.  The Russians have put roughly 200,000 heavily armed, motorized-equipped troops on the Ukraine border, and it is pretty clear what Putin has in mind.  After watching the complete failure of American military opertions in Afghanistan, it looks like Ukraine could be over-run in a weekend, while that clown in the White House mumbles and ponders, and mutters about costs and sanctions.   Sad, hilarious, and pretty easy to predict the outcome here.

What is interesting, is the detail the RAND report goes into.  It is from several years back, and focuses more on the Baltic States than Ukraine.   But it is well researched and written, and shows some serious thought.   Russia is very well equiped with land-forces and is set up to execute land-grabs.   They have a lot of cheap hardware that can saturation-bomb targets 20 to 30 km forward of their existing positions.   Without a whole bunch of cheap "Stuka-style" a/c to remove this stuff locally and in quantity, you simply will not be able to stop them.   Ukraine has some, but not enough, of this sort of capability, so they risk being overrun, the way the Americans overran Iraq. 

Literally, we are talking round 60 hours, according to the RAND report - which time-estimated a run into  the Baltic States - but Ukraine would be roughly the same timeframe.   These guys could just roar down highways, and splatter everything in their way - while NATO and the boneheads in the USA dance back and forth from foot to foot, and jabber and monkey-dance shouting "Sanctions!   Sanctions! "    It's comical and tragic.   The RAND report specifically speaks to the "atrophied" nature of NATO administrative arrangements - and its communication capability.   It would take NATO - their estimate - roughly 30 days to actually do anything.   This is hilarious and awful.  Ukraine will look like Rwanda, after the Hutu's got thru with it.   Or like the Road to Berlin, in 1945.   

And here is an interesting acronym:  NSNW.   Russia is estimated to have roughly **2000** of these things. They are:  "Non-Strategic Nuclear Weapons" - in otherwords, tactical nuclear weapons, meant for deployment on the battlefield.  These are nuclear weapons *explicitly designed* for theatre operations - booming big bangs on the "battlefield", not city-killing.

Russia has a *lot* of these - more than any other nation on the planet, and vastly more than NATO has.   If they chose to use a few of these - on what they would assert is their own territory (one can make up a lie that Ukraine has *invited* the Russians in to save Ukraine from - whatever - space aliens maybe?)   Any fabricated lie will do, so that Russian can then claim it is simply using its NSNW's to "clean-up" its own territory.)

If Putin can get away with overrunning Ukraine, then Xi will move on Taiwan - maybe the next day -  since he will know that the USA - the only entity that has the brains, balls and bombers needed to do anything significant to stop the attack - is weak, degraded, and has a corrupt, *woke* group of geriatric clowns running the place, and it will take *weeks* before it can react at all. By then, it will all be over.

The USA military is still effective and operational - but it is legally under the command of that very old man in the White House - possibly the least effective President I have seen in my lifetime.  

It is *very* clear, that we are now at serious risk of an awful cascade of military adventure events, driven by that astonishing, horrific defeat that America suffered in Afghanistan.    The Taliban is now going door-to-door, searching for anyone who was in the Afghan military or security services, and they are simply killing them - summary execution style.  But few care about this now, and that is a grave mistake.    The American debacle in Afghanistan will have long, ugly and far-reaching consequences.   These will extend far into the future.   Our research suggests we are just beginning to see the first results of this tragedy, and it is interesting, that other research entities have come to similar conclusions.

There is a *very* high degree of risk of military aggression from both Russia and China now.   The comments, verbage and information-flows that are being generated by both States, need to be seen as "information confrontation"  - a phrase taken directly out of an internal Russian military document on its electronic warfare strategy.  It is more than just lies - it is carefully crafted dis-information, explicitly and carefully designed to manipulate and mis-direct a targeted adversary.   

To win here, all that Putin and Xi need to do, is to slow down, and muffle the response by the Forces of Democracy and Freedom.  This is why their very first aggressive movement, needs to be met with an overwhelming re-active - and a directly *kinetic*  (another interesting term from the RAND report) response.    This is exactly what the murder-thug gangsters who have siezed Myanmar have been doing - ramming military vehicles into crowds of protesters, and killing them.   This is cruel - but it is also effective.

We - who seek to defend our Freedom from the Forces of Evil and Darkness -  need to:  1) communicate clearly, and 2) ensure that our actions not only match, but *exceed* our words.

Doubtless, the bad guys will try various tricks and feints.   We must assume this will occur, and be very careful and observant, and hold fire.  But when the main assault begins, we need to have the capability to respond with extreme, devastating and unlimited kinetic action - using *all* available technology.   It is our own forces, who will have to "escalate to de-escalate".  We must not only destroy their army, but also destroy their ability to even field or equip an army.

This is not how our doctrine is crafted now.  But this must change, or we risk seeing another, and even more ugly, defeat of the USA and it's allied Free-World forces.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-marks-army-day-with-us-hardware-vow-fight-off-russia-2021-12-06/

[ Dec. 5, 2021 ] - How to Deal with the Fascist Next Door -Less talk, more action.  Time to crank up the Wind-Generators of Change.   America makes a controlled gift of 100 tactical nuclear cannons (short range, very local) to both Ukraine and Taiwan.  Sends a note to each threatening Thug-Leader, saying:  "Just so we are clear.  You want to attack?  You get all of these up your nose, and that will happen in the first 24 hours.  The second 24 hours, bigger versions of these start falling on your cities.  Think I am bluffing?  Then pull the trigger, and find out."   Problem is solved, either way.   Seriously.  

When you are dealing with gangster criminal types, you have to communicate using the clear language that the evil people can understand, using their cruel, power-focused little brains.  Any other message, is worthless noise.  Biden talking about "costs" is just stupid.  Gangster leaders are keyed on power, and do not think in terms of "costs".   They put their own successful businessmen in jail.  You have to make it clear to the gangster-type of leader, that his criminal State enterprise - and his personal security - is very much at risk.  An effective approach, is to destroy one of his palaces or country villas.    Remind these people how we dealt with the "Leaders" of Libya and Iraq.

We need to make it crystal clear to the Jumping-Monkey types that run Russia and China, that the Russian people, and the Chinese people are *not* our enemies.   As citizens of the Free World, our actions need to be direct, focused, and very extreme.   "Sanctions" are absolute nonsense.    And our enemies are also *not* Iranians.   The whole Free World should suggest gently to the crazy Israeli nutjobs that they might want to consider the idea of living in peace with their neighbours, and returning the land the stole from the Palestinians.    Once the Iranians get nuclear weapons, it might encourage the rabid racists that run the Jewish State to behave themselves, and stop attacking everyone around them.

Peace comes from strength, not from weakness.   Iran now has no choice but to develop the ability to create a working nuclear defense - especially given what they saw happen in Iraq.  If they are sane human beings, they must act to protect themselves from race-based Israeli extremists.

What all participants in these games need to recognize, is the ongoing value and benefit of peaceful co-existence.   Putin putting 200,000 heavily-armed motor-equipped soldiers at the border of Ukraine, and Xi flying 27 armed fighter aircraft directly thru Taiwan's air-defense zone, is needless, absurd and dangerous, provocation. 

It is stupid, destabilizing behaviour, just like Trump's idiotic and foolish murder of the Iranian General Soleimani was.   Trump showed himself to be an unwise puppet of misguided Israeli interests in that that case, but his insistance on American strength and "greatness" was a wise and rational action - and it might well get him re-elected again, given the spectatcular failure of the 20-year American effort in Afghanistan that Joe Biden delivered to the world.

The World is now too small, and too much at risk from a large variety of serious threats, that nation-State actors should risk war-fighting over real-estate.

But it is in the nature of criminals, to take advantage of crisis, and exploit it as opportunity.  It is because of this, that the response to any unwise aggression, must be met with an overwhelming and extreme reactive-response, by the forces of the Free World.   This is the only effective algortihm.  All else is foolish noise.

[ Dec. 4, 2021 ] - Missiles Like Sausages - That's what we need.  (Didn't some old guy talk about this, once-upon-a-time, long, long ago?)   I have been doing some research on how best AI (artificial intelligence) technology, can be used in war fighting.   And along with missiles like sausages, it would seem to me that we might want to build little bomber aircraft, with rather the same idea.

And we probably want fast, effective fighter aircraft, that cost $10 to 20 million each, not $100 million each.   ($100 million dollar aircraft are just too damn expensive.)  But mostly, you probably want a new class of aircraft - a "Thunder-Thumper" platform, basically a very low-cost, not-very fast, heavily armed, loaded-with-missiles,  airborn delivery platform, cheap to build.   It's slow, but lethal - maybe 20 or 30 missiles on each one - and you basically just fly it near the action, and then cry "Havoc" and let all the missiles loose to find their targets, with the target-cluster pre-selected by the on-board AI.   But it might be too easy to fake the AI-cluster controlling the missiles.   And missiles are damned expensive.  The key is to make them cheap, lethal,  easily fabricated and reliable.

My AI-design efforts keep circling back to that old A10 "Warthog" concept - a hardend platform, twin tail (in case one is shot off), able to withstand flack and small-arms fire, and able to fire a big, lethal, explosive loads from an over-sized nose-cannon, where each round is a focused, exploding charge (a giant Raufoss-type round), which can pierce, destroy and stop, heavy armored vehicles and ships.   You aim it like you aimed a Stuka:  Point a/c at target, pull trigger, watch target explode, pull up, look for next target.   When out of rounds, fly home. 

(Raufoss is very fine technology:  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Raufoss_Mk_211  )

(The Germans considered the Stuka obsolete, even as WW2 began.  But it proved too useful and effective to replace.  It was also cheap, and lethal, and reliable.   https://www.airforcetimes.com/news/your-air-force/2018/06/20/screaming-bird-of-prey-how-the-ju-87-stuka-exceeded-its-life-span-and-carried-the-luftwaffe-through-wwii/  )

We (Canada) bought 25 used (but really good condition) Hornet fighter aircraft from Australia, and so we have a good bunch of decent, airworthy-and-modern F-18's, but if the North American homelands are attacked by the Forces of Evil & Darkness,  we may end up needing a lot more than what we now have.   Something like an A10 Warthog (Fairchild Thunderbolt - a genius aircraft design from the 1970's), is probably what we should be adding to the fleet.   We should be able to build a modernized Stuka/Warthog for $10 million to $15 million each.    And that would let us build a lot of them.  We may well *need* a lot of them.

[ Dec. 3, 2021 ] - Cobalt-Thorium "G" - This was the fictitious compound that powered the Russian "Doomsday Device", in the famous film, "Dr. Strangelove", one of my personal favourite movies of all time.  I have always wondered what the opposite of a "Doomsday Device" would be - a "Utopia Fabricator?"   You throw the switch, and everything becomes perfect and fine and wonderful.  Maybe we should work on this.

My sh/t continues to work.  It is surprising and uncanny.  But I think maybe I am just getting lucky - or the program is getting lucky.  It might just be tuning into randomness, and the string of accurate calls, might just be due to pure luck.   FD:  We remain fully, all-in, long.

[ Dec. 1, 2021 ] - My Sh/t Works - I am really senstive to Nassim Taleb's observation, that successfully evident traders are only those guys that fit the current regime and cycle and such - but I have lived thru 5 major sh/tstorms - Russian default in 1998, Dot-Com Bubble crash, 9/11 crash (when I was on a landline telephone to a broker, trying to sell 3000 QQQ's, and he said: "Huh?  They have just closed the market!..  It says an airplane hit the building.."  and I recall thinking "drunk guy in a Cessna?"...),  the 2008 "Financial Crisis" ( a global meltdown because of bogus models, corrupt real-estate valuators, and general nasty foolishness that dominates the professional financial world - "Here, we have some bogus high-yield-paper we want to sell you!" and the clients buy it...) and then recent Covid-19 March 2020 implosion, which almost blew us all out of the water (I bought at the bottom.  I was stupid - but I got lucky.)  But I sold too soon (like a week later, because I am really stupid... :)  ). 

But thru it all, I have focused and studied and built technical shit that just seem to work.   It is curious.   I get the crap kicked out of me on many trades, but I am still here, and, truth be told, we are doing alright.  It is curious as hell.   Two days ago, I figured I was gonna die from Covid and also eat a big loss, but I seem to be doing better much today, and the nasty phlegm is now clear-coloured, which is a very good sign, and the books are in the black...  

I mean, I look in the mirror, and it is just fu&-king awful to see - but I am actually feeling pretty good.   Three cheers for my immune system, I guess.  (And quality Nihonian food...)

And for all the practical and theory knowledge I have hacked from reality, and from books and from just looking carefully.    The financials are flying today (as my little mean-reverter calculator suggested they probably would, the stupid Covid-19 Omicron variant is actually probably a good and fine thing (it is showing exactly the kind of replicative failure, that causes viruses to become less lethal over time, and the fact that it is highly contagious, is good, because it becomes a natural vaccination vector device.)

Most humans just cannot actually think very clearly (I know how much trouble I have doing it!)

But it is possible to do just average investing stuff, and actually survive and prosper.   And with C-Machine and JunkWaffel, (which runs the HURSTGRF workspace I have been hacking on for 30 years), I can get a rough picture of what is likely to happen. 

I am still not betting properly.  I really need to work on that, since I am taking 2,500 out, when I should be taking 25,000 out, given what I am seeing, and how it could be played, if I was a bit less of a fearful pussy-cat trader.

It's just I *know* how crazy things can get, and how markets can sometimes move in a self-re-enforcing, self-accelerating manner.    (I am re-reading "Fooled by Randomness" again - such a fine and useful little book.  And if you can actually *get* what old Taleb is saying, his advice can truly help your trading efforts.  It might even make you rich.  (Hint: Low probability events, which exhibit low costs to enter, and very high payoffs, are worth looking at very carefully.  Also the flip-side:  Low probability events, which exhibit very high costs (negative payoffs)) are also worth looking at (and for) since these are *wildly* more common than the silly gaussian bell-curve bullsh/t stuff suggests.    Everyone uses near-normal distributions to assess VAR and other voodoo that does not quite work the way you think it does.  And if you are over-margined (like the wuckfits at Lehman Brothers were), then one of these very low-probability events (that are certain to happen, much more often than expected - it is in the data) - will completely *destroy* you and your enterprise.    I have hundreds of distributions of 1st difference RORs, and they *all* have these bloody little 5 or 6 or 10 sigma outliers.   All of them.  Virtually every bloody one of them - and they are across wildly different markets - share prices, interest-rate movements, gold prices, oil-prices, etc.     Mandelbrot was first to see this.  This is a really key thing.    Gauss was a genius, but Gaussian distributions are *not* how prices changes happen.  The 5, six and even 10 sigma events happen about every 25 to 50 years.   (And now, even more often, as the world now runs on internet-time)  They just do.  Go look.

I would love to sell today, but my models and C-Machine and especially JunkWaffel - all say "no, no...   we grind further, most likely,  Some bumps and blips and burpfarts along the way, but trend not violated, earnings of the underlying stuff is ramping upwards, and dividends are being increased at a rate greater than the rate of inflation.    Hands must be sat on.   Go cut down a tree, or invert some matricies or something.  Leave the portfolio alone to continue to just bloody well grow."   I find this difficult to do.  This is a weakness.

A man just has to accept and deal with his weaknesses.    Didn't Clint Eastwood say something like that?   :)

[ Nov. 31, 2021 ] - Imaginary Date, Like a Complex Number - Still got a long way to go.  Really, it is Nov. 30, in the afternoon...  

The market has comically imploded again - down 670 on the Dow, and over 400 on the TSE/SPX index.  Stupid market, stupid prices, as per usual.   Anyone who honestly believes that modern markets are "efficient" or even somewhat effective, at discounting risk, is just not sane.   The evidence continues to show:  1) Omicron Covid produces a *less* serious illness than the Delta variant, and 2) Omicron Covid is *more* contagious.   Well, duh.  This is evolution in action, the process-path to the beginning of herd immunity.  We are not there yet, but we are actually moving in the right direction.    But the *market* sees none of this.   It is hilarious.   I am trying not to die, despite feeling awful and ill.   I really want to live thru this, since it seems there will be some solid opportunities.   :)  ( I need to not die, of course....)

Here is some interesting info (which is damned difficult to find, given the awful "mainstream media" echo-chamber noise that the "search engines" now offer.  I've just discovered "thegatewaypundit.com", a fellow named Jim Hoft, who tries to do accurate (and useful) reporting.  He has offered some hard number about the current UK Covid-19 experience - specifically from time period October 25th, to November 21st, of 2021.  In the UK, there were 833,332 Covid-19 cases reported, 9,094 Covid-19 hospitalizations, and 3,700 Covid-19 related deaths.   The *unvaccinated* accounted for 39% of *ALL* cases. 34% of all hospitalizations, and 19% of all deaths.  (WHAT THE F&^K?? you might say...).    The vaccinated folks, accounted for 61% of all Covid-19 cases, 66% of all hospitalizations, and 81% of all deaths.

This information source is the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA), which publishes a weekly "Vaccine Surveillance" report containing detailed statistics on Covid-19 cases, hospitalizations and deaths, by vaccination status, for previous four weeks, across the UK.

Hoft's website link is:  https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2021/11/report-fully-vaccinated-account-81-covid-deaths-uk/

I think this is interesting data.   I have been "fully vaccinated" (two Moderna shots, April and July of this year), plus a recent flu-shot.   And look - I am *really* ill, but it might not even be Covid.  It might just be a bad flu, which is very common in Canada at this time of year - hence the annual flu shots, offered at most pharmacies.  But the most recent UK evidence suggests that the current vaccines, don't work very well, and are specifically not very effective at preventing death-by-Covid.   I would have expected the numbers to tell quite a different story.

And the problem now - especially among the leftist-leaning poltroons that absolute dominate and operate the mainstream media - is that evidence that contradicts their world-view, is simply ignored or bypassed or is quietly supressed.    

I've always recommended getting the vaccines.  But these recent UK numbers are shocking.  And they seem to match our local Ontario results, in that of the daily Covid-19 cases being reported, (ie. people are sick enough to seek medical treatment), 315/788, or roughly 40% are folks who have been "fully vaccinated". 

Taking 61% and 40%, and averaging them, 50% - you get a very rough estimate of the effectiveness of the vaccine.  (This is not valid, yes I know.  The population of "fully vaccinated" that you are drawing from is massively larger than the population of "not vaccinated", so you would expect "breakthru infections" - where the fully-vaccinated person gets sick enough from Covid-19 to seek medical help - can be quite a big number, so we need to take reported breakthru infections, as a percentage of vaccinated population, not just as a portion of total Covid reported cases for the time period.  But there is also a reporting issue, in that people who are vaccinated fully, are most likely going to be reluctant to seek medical assistance or advice, since they will believe their bad flu-like symptoms to be from - a bad flu.  This is my situation, for example.  I suspect that for every *reported* Covid case among the fully-vaccinated cohort, there are probably numerous non-reported breakthru infections where the patient has mild symptoms or is asymptomatic.  

It just seems to me, that if 40 to 60 percent of all the sick-with-Covid-19 people you treat have been "fully vaccinated", then it seems clear - the Covid-19 vaccines are just not working that well.   (UK has 80% of it's over-12 year old folks vaccinated with at least two shots, and Ontario has 86% of it's population of over-12s double-shot vaccinated.)  Both regions should just not be showing this many "breakthru" SARS-Cov-2 infections, which are serious enough for the sick folks to seek medical help.

It's very clear why the CDC in the USA, and various medical authority types in Canada, have been recommending getting a Covid-19 vaccine "booster shot".  This is because the damn vaccines are just not working very well, at preventing acquisition of, and infection by, the SARS-Cov-2 virus.

Now, the detailed science on this, says otherwise, and I am inclined to respect it, even if I don't believe it.  The data is old (last year, 2020, pre-Delta variant), and is statistical based, not patient-presenting-based.   Using a specific methodology, that one must understand carefully, ("test negative study design" - read the article, if curious), the vaccine efficacy is rated at >90% for the Moderna and Pfizer-Biontech vaccines, in Ontario.  

The real-world clinical data is saying, quietly:  "Bullsh/t.  The vaccine effectiveness is closer to 50%, rather than 90%".   And if this is true, then then the folks who choose NOT to get vaccinated, are not completely stupid.

This has been a big surprise for me.    I live in Mennonite country, and *most* of the Mennonites are *not* getting vaccinated.  I thought they were unwise.   Now, I have to re-consider.  My one neighbour tested positve for Covid-19.  I was chatting with him, on the highway, last spring, by his tractor.  I asked about his experience, and he said he was tired for a couple of weeks, but that was all.   He is older, in his late 50's or mid-60's.  But for him - an unvaccinated guy - he found Covid-19 to be no more serious than a bad cold or flu.  

So lets try to do the vaccine-effectiveness for UK:  This is from the UK numbers reported by gatewaypundit.com:  46 million people over 12, have had both doses of Covid-19 vaccine,and this indicated at 80% of the population.  So, total population of over-12s is 46m/.8 = 57.5 million total, 2-dose vaccinated + unvaccinated.

For 4 weeks, from Oct. 25th, to Nov. 21, 2021, in UK, 833,332 Covid-19 cases reported. 39% were unvaccinated, 61% were 2-dose vaccinated.  That means: 324,999 cases from unvaccinated, 508,333 cases from 2-dose vaccinated.  So with these numbers, we can estimate the probability of getting Covid-19 (actually getting Covid-19 bad enough to become a reported case, by seeking and getting medical help):

 Unvaccinated:  324999 / 11.5 million = 0.0282607  or 2.8260 %

 Vaccinated:   508333 / 46 million = 0.0110507 or 1.1050%

Getting the 2-dose vaccine drops your probability of getting serious Covid-19, from 2.826% to 1.105%, more than half.   Specifically:  1.1050 / 2.826 = .3910.  

1 - .3910 = .60898, or roughly 61%.   (Check it: .60898 x 2.826 = 1.72098 )

So, take 2.826 - 1.72098 = 1.10502%   

So, based on the current data (Oct. 25 to Nov. 21) the 2-dose mRNA vaccine in the UK, for over 12-year old people, drops the probability of getting Covid-19, roughly 61%, from 2.826% to 1.105%.    We thus view the mRNA vaccine rollout in UK, as showing evidence of roughly 60 percent vaccine effectiveness, based on most recent data available.

This is well below the reported "90% effectiveness" for mRNA vaccines, that was touted by everyone last year.

I still recommend to people to get vaccinated.  The risks are very low, and even 50% to 60% protection is better than no protection at all.   Here is a detailed statistical survey from last year, which suggests vaccine efficacy of 90%.   The link is below.  The study is well done, and may well have been accurate for datasets up to mid-2020:

https://www.bmj.com/content/374/bmj.n1943

But we all need to remain very skeptical here.    Don't "drink the Kool-Aid" just because some authority-figure suggests you should.  It may just turn out, that having a significant pool of people who are *non-vaccinated* in your country, might offer some significant future benefit, especially if all the *fully vaccinated* people get sick and die from some other lethal, opportunistic infection from a new organism that finds a wildly attractive ecological niche among the "fully vaccinated" population.  I don't think that is likely, but I have learned to respect the range of extreme, possible, edge-condition scenarios, since I see them play out, so very often, in the financial markets.  

[ Nov. 30, 2021 ] - Covid, Shmovid - I feel very goddamn crappy and sick, and I don't like being sick. For dinner last nite,  I ate half an avocado smashed up with yogourt and salsa, and spread it on corn chips (the kind used for salsa dipping).  That and some Japanese egg+fake crabmeat sticks and some tofu inari pockets filled with ginger rice, was all I could eat.   We had planned to cook a nice steak - but I really know I am messed up, when I lose my appetite for red, bloody, meat.  And wine.  I am on a no-alcohol, no-meat thing, not out of any clever diet plan, but just because I feel so weak and awful.  This might just be a flu, or even a flu from the vaccine I had a few days before I got sick.  But I think (with almost 90% probability), that I caught something ugly at the Mall/Bookstore/Apple Store. 

So tired, all I want to do is sit quietly, and breathe.  This might not be Covid Omicron/Delta, but it is nasty - body aches, fever seems to be down, but now runny nose, sneezing and dizzy.  Feel like I'm sailing on a rough patch of the River Styx. 

Market trading this AM has been ugly, despite the good news on our major holding (big earnings jump, and the dividend bumped up over 10%).  I'd do a happy dance, but it might kill me, and the share price is cratering.  Such a funny old world.    But on balance, we are crazy lucky, and doing just fine, actually, since the flu/covid/virus thing I have, is morphing into the "bad cold" phase, and that means I will be able to keep breathing, and watch the market sh/t all over us.  Real human comedy stuff, actually.  Like Leon, in Blade Runner: "I'll tell you about my mother!" ...

It's very difficult to get outside the filter-bubbles for mainstream media now, on all the search engines.   I was doing some data-research, and discovered some interesting data:  No one anywhere, has died from Omicron-Covid-19.  There have not even been hospitalizations.  Very preliminary information from South Africa, suggests that this variant produces a milder infection, than the Delta version.   What is interesting about Omicron, is the number of changes that are evident.   There are 30 specific changes, three small deletions, and one small insertion in the spike protein, and of these, 15 are in the receptor-binding domain.  It is unclear if this mutation makes the virus more or less likely to bind to human lung cells.  The Omicron variant belongs to the Pango lineage B.1.1.529, with many S-gene mutations compared to the original SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus that was identified in late 2019.   The degree of change of effectiveness of existing vaccines and antibody treatments is unknown at the moment.  But because the spike protein has undergone such a significant mutation, there is obvious concern that this mutation variant might have increased binding affinity.  But this does not mean this variant is more lethal.  It is possible that this might be an example of "replicative fading", a phenomenon that typically leads to *less* perfectly adapted evolutionary entity.  

The Omicron variant might be a less-lethal, milder form of Covid-19.  Remember - a virus or a parasite that kills it's host, is not evolutionarily successful.  If evolution is working, we would expect to see Covid evolve to become more like a bad cold, and less like a killer Spanish Flu.

And no one has died from Omicron.  It was first observed on November 11, in South Africa.   Not one, single person has died from it.  This was 18 days ago.  And yet nation-states are closing borders, and politicians are yappity-yap-yapping like excited puppies.  As of yesterday, around the middle of the day, there were 184 Omicron variant cases, and 1305 probable cases.   In Ontario, there were reported 788 new Covid-19 cases on Sunday, and 2 Omircron variant cases in the Ottawa region - from two people who had returned from Nigeria.  Of the 788 new cases, it seems that over 300 were Covid-19 cases from people who had been vaccinated.  This fact was not explicitly reported anywhere, only the number of non-vaccinated Covid cases.   There was one single Covid-19 related death, in Ontario, on Sunday.

The information I found, indicated that in Ontario, over 86 % of the population of adults have had two vaccination shots, and 89.7 % of Ontario folks 12 and older, have had at least 1 shot.   Also, as of 8:00 pm Monday, Nov. 29, two additional Omicron cases have been discovered in Ontario - also from travellers, apparently.

Of the 788 new Covid-19 cases in Ontario, reported on Sunday, Nov. 28, 439 were unvaccinated and 34 cases were people with unknown vaccination status.  788 - (439 + 34) = 315.   That means on Sunday, 315 people who had been vaccinated, were reported getting Covid-19.    That is an interesting number, and it suggests that: 1): Covid-19 is evolving to work-around the vaccine, and 2) The Covid vaccines are not perfectly effective, and even if you are vaccinated, you may still catch Covid.  And 3):  Covid-19 vaccine booster shots for all adults is probably indicated, and the US CDC has suggested this.

Ontario has had 617,803 total confirm Covid-19 cases, and as of Monday evening, Nov 29, it has reported 9,997 deaths.     Not a pretty picture, really, but not near as bad as was expected.  We get a death-rate of 9997/617803 = 1.6182 %.

And if Omicron is *less* lethal, but more contagious, it might drive that death-rate down further and faster.

[ Nov 29, 2021 ] - Lapdogs, Fly Maggots and the Fake Metaverse - Fruit fly maggots have little brains, with only roughly 15,000 neurons.  That is not many neurons, yet the little white slug-things exhibit a whole range of behaviours.  And dogs which are not even lapdogs, will typically jump up and sit in my lap.  It is pretty comical - they seem to be able to infer that I am a dog-person, and even huge Labradoodles will leap into my lap, given the chance.  Of course, I am delighted to have them sit there.   A good friend has two large animals that they raised from small pups, (Lilly and Lucy), and Lilly will jump up into my lap and sit happily.

What is interesting, is that Lucy is qutie shy, and remains back.  They will both come and greet me when I visit - but the differences in their personalities is striking.   My own little Hana does not typically like lap-sitting - and yet in the cold mornings, she will snuggle and sleep in my lap, if the farmhouse is cold (which it is today).    We had 3 inches of snow last nite, and about 1/2 hour of very bright sunshine this AM, before the new batch of snow-clouds have now moved in.  It is 8:30 am, and I see the Dow futures are up over 200 points, and the US pre-market is looking frisky.

The market shows behaviour patterns that do not even reach the level of fly maggots, and is no where near the clever wisdom of dog-knowledge.   This is truly fascinating.    The one thing that you learn about marketplace pricing, is that it is basically *WRONG*.   Whatever price you see, you can be absolutely certain that that prevailing price is complete bullsh/t.

This is *exactly* the opposite of what classical economic theory suggests, and also means that most of modern finance is also nonsense.  There is no such thing as "price discovery".  That is complete fiction.   There is "price obfuscation" and "price confusion" and "price reducto ad absurdum" and "price comedy".

Whatever the prevailing price is right now - you can be 100% certain that it is wrong.   It will be different in the very near future.  It might be *very* different.  

We traders and investors are fly maggots looking for lapdogs, who will sit in our laps, and not try to kill us by ripping out our throats.     This is the very best we can hope for - a reasonable investment, with enough value-stability and sanity in the wandering-drunk price-path, so that it will not kill us before our time to die is mandated by our biology.

There remains a wild war going on inside me.   For a while, I will feel almost fine - almost OK, and then tired, shivering, coughing so bad that I feel I will start expelling pieces of lung tissue, and then, back to ok.   Body temperature moving up and down in curious waves - maybe just a nasty flu, or something else.    I find drinking very hot coffee seems to help.  And Hana sitting on my lap, like a big furry heating pad, also helps.   It's something like minus 7 celsius this AM.  And it is not even December.   "Global Warming" is a fraud - of this, I am certain.  Our recent planetary warming trend, will be replaced by a general cooling trend - which is clearly now beginning. 

This is how our system here works.  If it didn't have this degree of ergodicity, the Earth's planetery ecology would not have survived for the billions of years it has.  "Climate Change" hysteria is a fraud, but it is a useful fraud, if it can move the needle on our current technology profiles.  Electric cars will work on Mars.  Gasoline-burning vehicles are silly, and will only work here.  We also must improve and enhance nuclear energy technology.  The "Climate Change" nonsense will let us re-frame nuclear as "Green Energy", and make nuke plants socially acceptable again.   This must happen.  We also need to make nuclear-fusion plants work, and also develop direct mass-to-energy devices, so we do not have to freeze to death in the dark.

The science says all this hard-core good stuff is possible.  We have to re-ignite the spirit of the 1960's, where it was actually possible to implement and execute successfully on, big, complex technological-change projects.   The world seems to have lost this ability.   It must be re-captured, and we must expand outward.  Otherwise, humanity will die, like bacteria in a test-tube that has eaten all its nutrients, and is now simply swimming in its own shit.

Resources on Earth are fixed and finite - and yet our population is growing exponentially.  It is not hard at all, to predict a perfect Mathusian collapse.   "Soylent Green is made out of people!!"  Ya, so what.   Better that, than eating boiled fly maggots and dead dogs.

Let's use all these neurons we have, to get the technology working in our favour again, instead of being used to trick, mislead, and dis-inform us all with "fake news" and a fictional, phony "metaverse". 

[ Nov. 27, 2021 ] - Covidicus Interruptus - Damn and hell, but I have been rather ill - typical difficulty breathing, weird up-and-down temperature changes, crazy sore/aches in strange places (back, sides, fingers, etc), and then it all stabilizes and I am feeling not too bad, with just a slight cough.  Did I get hit with Delta or Omicron?  No idea.   I had gone to the Apple Store (a very crowded, entry-controlled store in the Mall), and also a bookstore, also crowded.  Wore mask, felt fine.  But I had also had a flu shot a couple of days before, so it might be entirely due to that - or not related to any of these factors.  Might have been because I was cutting wood outside in a shirt (wearing coat makes one too warm)...  Might just be plain old-fashioned rinovirus (running nose, cough, sneezing, etc.)   No sense taking my viral creche anywhere, so I just took a tylenol, and concentrated on breathing in and out.  Feeling better today.

Also, absolutely had to be here to hack the market, for Black Friday.   See, the C-Machine had forecast - with pretty high likelyhood, a turnover,  Market in Canada was open on Thursday, Nov. 25th  (the USA Thanksgiving), and that shortened day of "Black Friday" is always good for thin-trade volatility.  Because of the AI forecast, and other factors, I had unloaded a very big chunk of the main portfolio, on Tuesday.  Nov. 23rd.  (Pretty much all of it...)   Truth be told - the AI was showing a clear tip-over was expected - was the main reason I pulled the trigger.   Big numbers, main position.

Next day (Nov. 24th), I watched in disgust as the market ran up. And then again on Thursday, the 25th (Canada was open all day, USA markets were closed for the holiday).  I felt a right doofus, and I also was coughing and having trouble breathing, but that felt secondary, compared to the fact I was missing out on some serious gain, because of what my damnfool AI program said.

But in the evening, when I checked the overnite numbers in Asia, and saw the "Omicron Implosion" (Nikkei was down something like 700 points, and the Dow futures were down over 800 points), I immediately developed new respect for the little AI.   It new *nothing* about the Covid hoo-haw.  But the trend curve had topped out, and turned over hard.  The information was already in the prices.   Just like the old boys used to say.

I made the dumb-assed mistake of buying everything back, right at market open.  I estimated a bid, based on price deltas in US trading pre-market, and put in my order 1 minute before market open.  I got filled 7 seconds after market open, so some folks made some serious money on my order, but such is life.  (7 seconds is like getting a fill an hour later, in the modern markets... but I am not complaining.  My mistake for not just sitting on my hands until closing time...)

Key point here:  We took out a decent bit of cash, and re-acquired back to our previous key position.  ( My mid-range view is that one *must* be long-long in this kind of rising-inflation market.  )

But my trading is an *awful* trading strategy.  Just awful - totally path-dependent, and dopey and silly, and probably I am getting fooled by randomness, and just getting lucky, blah blah blah blah.

Except this gosh-darn trade just keeps working and working and working - it keeps going like the Energizer Bunny with Tesla batteries on it's back.  It is just silly, and all the "efficient markets" bullsh/t that they taught us in economics school is just plain balls-to-the-wall wrong.  I keep doing this nonsense, because it just keeps working.  It's uncanny.

See, the Covid/Omicron thing is not what triggered the Black Friday meltdown this year.  It was already in the prices - you could bloody well *see* it, if you just took the time to look.

One of our new devices is the "Junkwaffel" machine.  "Junkwaffel" was built entirely from scrap bits and pieces - it is an "MS-DOS" machine, with a lot of memory, runs code built with DJGPP, and it is actually on the internet, using a hacked Crynwr TCP "Packet Driver".    "Daneel" is not built yet (climbing serious learning curve, I am), but C-Machine and Junkwaffel are running not too badly - quite well, actually.   Which is good, because we need the CDN dollarettes to cover costs.  I just renewed the car & truck licenses online today, and dropped almost $1000 - just for little license-plate stickers that will hopefully be mailed out to us at some point. 

We are not planning to die just yet, so figured we better keep all the vehicles roadworthy...!  :)

[ Nov. 25, 2021 ] - Happy Thanksgiving, USA Eat a big turkey for us!   All the best, to my American cousins and friends.   I visited a Mall in town, both the Apple Store and a big book-store, called Chapters.  And I caught something nasty.  We've been double-vaxed for Covid, and just got our flu-shots a week ago, but I am just wrecked with some damn virus - all the symptoms, fever, difficulty breathing, seriously dizzy (a kind of 6-beer wobbly feeling, which I recall from my seriously mis-spent youth...)   But the vax-action seems good - I can literally feel a serious war going on in my lungs and other bio-systems.   One gets these waves of change - you feel ok and fine, and then, for a while, you feel like crap, and get wheezy - and then an hour later, you feel not bad, again.   This is actually your own immune system assaulting the infection.  

[ Nov. 24, 2021 ] - We Fixed the Apple MacBook Air, New OWC 250gb SSD Drive Works Good - It is not possible to install the original Apple Mac OS/X operating system onto a repaired Macbook Air, from the Apple "Internet Recovery" system, despite Apple's instructions saying this should work.  In discussions with Apple technicians at the Apple Store, they confirmed that the facility to make this work, is disabled.  So we wasted *days* trying to do this.

If you put a new SSD drive into your Macbook, to replace a defective SSD "disk" (it is actually a circuit board, with SSD chips on it, which mimics a "disk drive") then you MUST create - using a different Apple Macbook, a "Bootable Mac OS/X Install Drive" - typically on a little USB stick.  The USB stick has to be at least 16GB (8 gb is too small!), and you must follow the instructions on this Apple Instruction Page, very carefully.  You will have to use "Internet Recovery" on the dead machine to connect to the internet, AND you must set the system date to the current date (some early advice had indicated that system date had to be set back to the date of the original machine setup.  This is not the case now.  You might also have to use the Safari version on the "Internet Recovery" stub, to make a connect to Apple Support, and press enter when asked for the password for the "login" keychain.

We successfully did the whole procedure - but initial attempts failed with Apple OS/X install process saying "The copy of the install OS X <your OS version, ie, Yosemite, Sierra, etc.)> application can't be verified."   We think the message resulted from the system date being set to Nov. of 2012 (the date of the Macbook purchase), but we are not sure.   What did happen, is that once we updated the system date on the target Macbook Air (with the new OWC SSD drive card installed and formatted), we were finally able to get the Install of Yosemite to run - which took over a hour to complete.  (We chose old Yosemite Mac OS/X, because it was the earliest .DMG file version of Mac OS/X offered by the Apple download. )   The install finally ran (which means the OS/X was successfully verified, as the first step.   Note we had already formatted the OWC SSD drive, to use Mac journaling file system.

Here is critical link to the Apple Support Note, which describes the procedure that must be followed, to put a new copy of Mac OS/X onto a new, blank, virgin SSD drive:

https://support.apple.com/en-us/HT201372

This approach requires use of "terminal", and you must keytype the path-referenced "createinstallmedia" commands exactly and correctly.  This method is the *only* way that an old version of OS/X can be installed on a new MacBook SSD drive.

Also, you have to build - on a different Macbook (we used a MacBook Pro, with at least 100gb of real disk space on it) -  a complete Application to build the  "Bootable Install Volume for Mac OS/X".  You first download the .DMG file, then click on it to turn it into a .PKG file, then run the .PKG file, to create the "Build Installable MacOS Bootable Volume" Application, in your Applications directory, on this other Macbook.  You plug in the USB stick, and run the newly built Application, to create the OS/X Installable Bootable Volume on the USB stick.  Note: it is a good idea to rename your USB DISK to something like "MyVolume" or some such name without the stupid embedded space, which will cause grief when you try to run the "createinstallmedia" command.

The .dmg files to build the Application to make the bootable install OSX images, can be found here: 

https://support.apple.com/en-us/HT211683

We used Yosemite, because it is confirmed to work, based on the technical specs for Yosemite. These are documented here:

https://support.apple.com/kb/SP711?locale=en_US

We were finally able to complete this process, and we have repaired the MacBook Air, which now has a new, OWC 250mb SSD drive, and uses the FIrefox 78.x ESR web-browser, which we have confirmed works with all the sites we need to access.

Note that this information is somewhat contrary to the "advice" you will be offered from the "Genius Bar" at an Apple Store.   Stuff we were told there, was simply wrong, so we had no choice but to do this task ourselves.   Also note:  we notice that the referenced Apple servers that do the .DMG file downloads, appear to be local, in Canada.  If you are in USA or elsewhere, this may or may not work.  If someone tries this, and it works ok in USA, let me know, and I will update this post.

[ Nov. 23, 2021 ] - We Bought a New SSD Drive for an Apple Macbook Air.  Apple has Rigged Their Recovery Software, to Prevent the Original Apple OS/X Operating System from Being Loaded onto the new SSD Drive.   - I know some people accuse Apple of being an abusive and nasty monopoly, but I never realized just how harsh this company is, until we tried to do this simple exercise.    I've managed to monitor, in real-time, the install-logs, and it is possible to see everything working, but the Apple Server (which holds the OS/X operating system code), simply (and deliberately) fails the validation checks, and this prevents the software from being loaded.

The machine was sold *without* a CD-ROM disk of the O/S, (the critical operating system that makes the machine operate)  but we were assured at the Apple Store, that one could always download a fresh copy of the Mac OS/X operating system code from Apple, in the event our MacBook needed a new SSD drive. 

(SSD drives - "Solid State Disk" drives - are little chips on a circuit board, that mimic the operation of a disk-drive.  They all eventually will fail, within a few years, as the little chips can only be "flashed" so many times, until they expire.) 

The SSD drive in our MacBook Air failed (it used Toshiba chips), and we replaced it with a new SSD board from OWC, which has been set up and formatted correctly.  We were assured at time of purchase that fresh copies of the OS/X could always be loaded from the internet.   

But Apple appears to have made this impossible.  All the internet access and download technology works, but Apple as simply tweaked the process to prevent it from *validating* the downloaded code.  You can confirm this by watching the install log as the OS/X install is attempted by the Apple Internet Recovery program.  (It really *should* work.)

So, it looks like a legislative, not a technical, solution will be required.  If we cannot install the original OS/X operating system on the new SSD drive for the MacBook, we promise we will sue Apple, and ask for the lawsuit to be granted class-action status, as *many* other folks report this exact same problem.

It is not a technology problem - it appears to be a policy decision by Apple, to destroy and degrade the operational viability of older products.

This is classical abusive trade practice, and the solution is to invoke the "right-to-repair" laws, and also involve the anti-monopoly regulators in each nation where Apple operates.

We will ask that Apple provide physical copies of the original OS/X version, on CD-ROM or other media,  for each machine, to all registered owners of Apple Macbooks.   This requirement needs to go into law, so the abusive behaviour of the Apple monopoly can be checked and at least limited.  

Note: Apple is not all bad.  Here is an example of Apple doing the *right* thing.  They are suing those bastard-criminals at NSO group, that developed the FORCEDENTRY and PEGASUS malware, to target and exfiltrate and monitor iPhone users.  Apple recommends iOS 15.  The very good people at "CitizenLab"  (based in Toronto, Canada), were key to discovering the astonishingly abusive spyware that was being used by corrupt, State-level actors, to target journalists, government-workers, academics, and other so-called "threats to national security".

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/apple-sues-nso-group-curb-180000182.html

Let us be *very* clear, here.  the "threats to national security* come directly, from malware and spycode, exactly as produced and marketed by the Israeli gangsters running NSO Group.   They are just old-fashioned, hard-core pure-evil bastards, and we wish Apple all success in their attempt to shut the Israeli-Government-backed NSO criminal group, completely down.  The two founders of that group should be arrested, charged and convicted of computer-hacking crime... The law in Canada is *VERY* clear on the criminal nature of what NSO was enabling.  

[ Nov. 22, 2021 ] - Shake (and Bake) Your MoneyMaker - The idea of growing a big bucket of brain cells, and then using this assemblage to create a wetware neural-net processor is not new.  What is new, is that this has now been done - and even to the point of growing small "mini-brains" with working optic-cups, where each "optic cup" had lenses, retina cells, and was light-sensitive.  (Might one call this a "synth-eye"?)  

A group of researchers have used a multistep organogenesis methodology to create neural tissue (from human iPSCs - induced pluripotent stem cells), complete with optic vesicles.  The cellular sphere is called an "organoid" and it is basically a small neural assemblage, complete with two optic entities.  The summary stories speak of "optic cups", and we figured a bit of retina tissue -but no, the results were vastly more impressive.  The "optic cups" had lenses, cornea tissue, retinal progenitor cells, pigment epithelia (dark "skin"), axon projections, myelinated cortical neurons (myelinated neurons are like an insulated wire, like an optic nerve), evident microgila (tiny nerve fibres) - and, most important - the resulting neural network is electrically active, and shows clear evdience of being light senstive.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1934590921002952

This is a big deal.  We had read popular press stories about this, but the journal article was just published last month, in "Cell: Stem Cell".   The journal article is sadly, behind a paywall, so we cannot access it (we have no direct University links).    But the summary abstract did indicate the neural-net organoids were kept alive and growing for at least 60 days, that they were electrically active, and that the synthetic "eyes" were light-sensitive, and appeared to be communicating optic information to a primitive, self-organized, sensory structure.

Well, that should all be enough, right there.  It's an engineering problem now.   Grow the organoid neural-net in a nutrient-rich surrogate to sufficient scale (several hundreds of millions, or maybe a few billion neurons), keep it alive, connect it to the data-sources, give it some incentive to provide actionably useful results, and then let it watch everything, and offer some indication of "go long", "go short", or "unclear, do nothing"

This used to be the wildest science-fiction, but this is no longer the case.  The pluripotent  adult stem cells (made by genetically tweaking existing human adult cells), avoids the need to use dead-baby stem-cells, so this whole experiment becomes possible now - both operationally and ethically.  (Using human-embryo sourced stem cells does seem to cross an ethical red-line.)

One obvious concern is that if one were to grow a good-sized neural-net - a mini-brain - it might become somewhat self-aware, and that raises other ethical questions - like what you do with it, if it can't or won't be effectively trained?   After a long series of 'bad trades", you pick up the beaker, and walk towards the autoclave to terminate it, and it starts to show "distress", and communicates "please do not kill me!", via the synaptic link.   You would really have an ethical problem.   Unless you were in China, of course.   :(

[ Nov. 21, 2021 ] - When the Price Change Puffs Air, Do the Traders Scrunch, or Turn Their Heads?

The brain of the larvae of fruit flies, has roughly 15,000 neurons.  And yet the larvae are reported to show about 30 different behaviours.  Attempts to map the biological "connectome" (the map of neural-net connections), and link it to the creature's behaviour, are proving to be difficult.

https://www.nature.com/articles/548150a

Perhaps a biological approach might yield more effective results, than an electronic, simulation approach in a computer can do.   The obvious experiment would involve growing a great, large mass of linked-neurons, in a nutrient-rich environment, subjecting this synthetic "brain' to market-data inputs, designing (or accessing) some sort of incentivization circuit, and detecting or extracting an output somehow, which would correspond to an action-variable - eg. "Good Market Conditions, make BUY" or "Bad Market Conditions, make SELL" or "Unclear, Take No Action".

It's funny.  We used to think of ourselves as "lab rats'.    But recent neural science looks to decode trading behaviour more directly, as the work on the 15,000 neuron fly-larvae brain progresses.   We are not metaphorical lab rats anymore.  Now, we are fly maggots.

Science marches forward.    :)

[ Nov. 19, 2021 ] - The Diamond Age of Bullshit - It's like plaid.  What comes after "the Golden Age of Bullshit"?  What comes after "Post-Modern?"  What is heavier than solid neutronium?   Maybe the galactic core, populated by Neutron Stars, all orbiting a giant Black Hole of Mass-Sucking Horror, ripping everything over it's event horizon, and flinging out teravalues to the exponent giganumber of terawatts of system-melting radiation wave-particles, across all frequency spectrums?   Sorta like Chinese political process does to the truth, or the US Leftist Groups do to sanity.    We seem to be living on a giant steaming nightmare of foolishness now.

The only saving grace, is that things seem to be driving along with a curiously predictable process nature. We develop these awful, worst-case scenarios of stupid-crazy goofballery, and then we watch them play out, just as expected.   Our only error is that we don't bet enough of the portfolios on the idiotic outcomes.

We suspect real, solid, hard-core revolutions will come soon, to many places, given the tragic-stupid awful boneheadedness that seems to be in charge of everything, everywhere now.   It's like the whole planet political process-efforts, are very similar to drunken teenagers, driving their stolen cars as fast as they can make them go, on icy roads, at night, with the lights out, while drinking whiskey laced with crack.    One observes this repeating set of phenomenon, and concludes simply: "This will not end well."    :/

[ Nov. 17-18, 2021 ] - Up All Night to Get Lucky - The new system called the turn.  Or maybe we just got lucky.  Played it badly, re-purchased way too soon,   The whole "Daneel" thing is a mess of circuit-boards spread all over the living-room floor, but it is showing promise.   The system shows astonishing ability.   The weakest factor, is the human.   Curious how many people (who are profitable) report a similar experience.   Knowing must be balanced correctly with action, and this is surprisingly difficult to do.  Je suis tres fatige, mais j'avais une petite "eurka".

[ Nov. 15, 2021 ] - Here Comes the (Artificial) Sun - and the Winter.  The Northern High's are upon us, along with the snow.  Time to get the chainsaw out.    Otherwise, we will freeze in the darkness, since that satellite bitstream, will not keep us warm...

[ Nov. 12, 2021 ] - Sunny November Days, Time Winds Down, Clocks Fall Back, Prices Go Up - Weather is nice.  Up north for a few days, closing nothern office, cleanup work, deck repairs, shutdown for winter.  Lots of work.   Astonishing how heavy the traffic - in mid-week - is now.  Monster agricultural equipment everywhere.  Last bits of corn & grain harvest being brought in.   Makes back-roads high-speed driving difficult.   Exhausted & tired, but got it done.

Finished re-reading "When Money Dies", a detailed account of the German hyper-inflation of the 1919 to 1924 period.   It was written by Adam Fergeson, back in 1975.  It is well-written and researched, and is most interesting.

Inflation is a scam, a financial trick, used to essentially tax the public.  And fixing it, often involves terrible destruction of financial assets, as governments do "reset" events, to repudiate their debt obligations.   When inflation starts accelerating, most of the public is too stupid to take action, and bogus laws and restrictions were typically put in place by corrupt, dishonest government entities, which had the clear effect of impoverishing middle-class folk by destroying the value of their financial assets.  It was not just Germany - both Austria and Hungary were smashed by hyperinflation.   And the inflation no way helped Germany pay it's "Reparations" payments, since they were basically quoted in gold - as were most internation payments at the time.

The inflation allowed the economy to run flat-out, almost no unemployment, for a couple of years, but then it accelerated, France invaded the Ruhr coal and iron-ore mining & steel-making region, and Germans were reduced to being essentially low-paid, almost slave-labour, to meet the French demands for payment-in-kind "reparations".    The astonishing stupidity and avarice of the French ensured that Germany would certainly re-arm, and return to war, once it was able to.   If it had not been Hitler, it would have been someone else.  Keynes tried to warn that bankrupting Germany would be the result of the "reparations", and the German inflation was an unwise financial trick, required to keep the post-war economy operating.

The entire time-period of post World War One Europe should be studied in detail, as just about everyone made the worst possible decisions at every key juncture.  The only folks who spoke with any sanity or common-sense, were the Americans - but French and British political and government people basically insisted on the economic destruction of Germany.   And the German central bankers had this insane model, which suggested that a certain pound-sterling amount of cash had to be kept circulating in Germany - so as the Reichmark versus the British Pound exchange rate fell, and then fell again, this dolt Haverstein would order *more* German Marks to be put into circulation - which of course caused the exchange rate to fall even more.

This was a level of stupidity that can only be seen in Government, because there is no financial check on how far this kind of madness-crazy stupidity can actually run.    A private business will run out of money, or out of borrowing capacity, or be cut-off by it's bankers and/or investors.   But a Government can just keep going.  It *always* takes regime change ( or a beneficial death!) for the madness of wrong-action to be halted and corrected.   Haverstein finally did one good thing, and died, just as Schact was put in charge, to begin to repair the madness, by simply issuing the "RentenMark" ( a complete piece of fiction), but a currency that was *not* subject to the insane moneyprinting of the Haverstein model.  It actually worked, and a degree of stability became possible (as did high-unemployment, and more serious poverty for most people).

For a student of real Economics (not the nonsense they teach in University classes), this time period and this inflation is one of the most interesting in all of human history, on par with John Law's experiment with paper-money in France, in the early 1700's.  Nation-states become laboratories, and real Economics can be studied, to see what works, and what does not.

[ Nov. 9, 2021 ] - Righteous Living - Amazing amount of work just keeping the technology ticking good.  Had to upgrade a couple of Linux boxes with security fixes (something like 508 separate prgms!), and upticked a version number on the Linux kernel on the 32-bit fire-breather laptops.  Hilarious of course.  First most critical laptop upgrade - bitched everything.  X11/Gnome would not start, and when I finally got it to run, my critical database+analysis application would not update from the data.  Arrgh!

The X11/Gnome fix involved running X11 System Configuration (discovered by reading the damn code in the /etc directory for X11 startup.  But so worth it, it turns out.  I got massive (almost unbelievable!) improvement in screen-resolution.  Had no idea the ACER laptops were capable of such beautiful, sharp super-hi-res display.  Really awesome improvement.

And then, the critical application+database - would not update the data from the Lynx-downloaded files.  Just a silly, nutter issue.  Turns out, the big filename <=> dataseries-name table, when being read, was now being read differently (after the security upgrades), probably due to more correctly and more accurately processing buffer-contents.  With the upgrade, the table-file was NOW picking up the filename, WITH a trailing carriage-return character, and then using that to try to open the related file.  It meant no matches at all between the lookup-table, and the actual filenames on the disk.  Hilarious.  But an easy fix (just scan-out any spurious junk non-ascii characters - except for future compatibility, I only scanned out CR, since maybe someday, I have to use UNICODE filenames or some annoying silly thing like that.).   (True Confessions:  I still seriously miss TOPS-20.   Like old girlfriends who were *really* good, or dear, dead departed dogs from years gone by, you remember what excellent actually was, and felt like).  :)

Anyway, with wonderful WINE (the WINdows Emulator, that is not an emulator), I have the laptop upgraded, with super-hi-resolution display, and the mission critical data-getter and analysis engine running correctly on all the Linux boxes - CentOS-6.6, CentOS-7.x, and the older (super reliable) 2.6.x kernel boxes.   Linux with the MIT X11 stuff (and the Gnome-slushpile on top), actually works crazy-well, as it allows a universe of other stuff, to run also - Lynx, GNUplot, various APL's and various neural-net voodoo that is sort-of-semi-secret (but not really, if you read my notes).

Also, no where near finnished the C-code stuff  (new, native full-on GUI front-end for bunch-o-stuff), and also working on *transistors*.   I know vaccum-tubes like the back-o-my hand, but hacking deep into semi-conductor tech has been on my list of stuff-to-learn, so I built some crappy breadboard stuff - an emitter-follower common collector amplifier, as a tiny example. 

My first build is skank-awful, clips badly  because the voltage-divider circuit that keeps the V-out range for the transistor at the right point, is tricky.  (I used junk-box resistors - and they need to be super-accurate, for the transistor mid-point voltage to be established correctly.)    Transistor circuits are more sensitive to component values, than tube circuits.  But you have the advantage of being able to fiddle-about with them, while they are working, and not have 800volts flow up one arm, and down the other, and stop your heart.  (Vaccum-tubes use *high* voltage - most of my hack-stereo amps have 350 to 400 volts flowing thru the tubes.  But they sound very nice.  You can hear the guitarists when they touch the frets, before they whack the strings, stuff like that...)

But I don't like connecting the iPad (or any computer tech) to the vaccum-tube equipment, without I have an optical isolator (and I don't have one), since one tiny error, and you can send enough voltage thru your low-voltage hardware to destroy it - and maybe yourself, also...

Problem with transistors, is the god-awful clipping.  Vaccum-tubes are very tolerant of being wildly overdriven.  Tranistors are very much not - and they make the most awful, awful waveforms, if things are just a tiny bit away from perfect.  Real engineer's toys.  But also absolutely critical now to just about every single piece of technology we have anywhere and everywhere now.

Funny thing.  All the really, really useful stuff, that I learned in school - was in auxilary or extra classes that I took for amusement and curiosity.   I took a course in ham-radio (a teacher in our high-school was an electronics guy, with a radio license), I took a course in accounting-principles (I was doing Economics, and nowhere did anyone say anything at all, about how business accounting worked - the most important aspect of commercial opertions, IMHO) and I took a course in interactive computer programming, using the  APL Language (first year at Univ. of Toronto, which was still using card-and-paper to teach PL/1 and Fortran to us.  If you wanted real-time interactive experience, you had to use APL on IBM 2741 terminals, with the proper "ball" installed. (Installation of the correct ball, turned out to very actionable and useful knowledge - applicable across many subject domains...)    All these courses were non-credit, were taught by interesting teachers with  real passion for their subject material, and each one was crazy useful, and very, very helpful to me. 

The Accounting course was *really* helpful... I went on later to take the Ontario CSC (Canadian Securities Course) and the Conduct and Practices Course, but you could not get a "Stockbrokers License" without you were first *working* as a goddamn employee of a Brokerage firm.    That just super-sucks, and is crazy abusive and unfair.  But the crappy-corrupt industry here (and in most modern Klepto-States) likes it this way.   

If I become the Minister of Finance before I die, I promise to change this shit.  Anyone who is willing to take the course, and can pass the tests, should get the license.  The licensing rights, privilages and obligations and duty-to-be-honest should be held by the *person*, not by some semi-corrupt company run by fatboys.  I remain a tad radical about this.  We have to run fair systems, that balance and define responsibility correctly. 

And we are just not there yet.  Too much ugly fraud can be done by a company, without any people paying the price for being basically criminals.  (Eg. Nortel).    It is so very easy to fix this problem   We just make all the license requirements and obligations devolve directly down to each individual person - like it does for Chartered Accountants  (another bloody great scam of Biblical proportions...)  :)

But the accounting course - surprisingly - was both interesting, and crazy useful, as it became clear how business (and private-person) accounting worked, and why it was so damn useful.  It goes back to the 1400's, and the whole double-entry assets versus liabilities thing, is very, very clever and useful.  Key accounting fact you need to know:  Assets - Liabilities = Shareholders Equity.  Absolutely everything flows from that simple equation.  The Balance Sheet is a *snapshot* in time, showing business status as of a particular day.  The Income Statement is a description of the flows of money that took place over a particular time-period, a year, a quarter, a month, etc.   The *retained-earnings* is the value that connects the income-statement to balance sheet - or at least it should. 

There is all sorts of financing and cash-flow stuff that can happen, and lots and lots of room for fraud and fiction (the "capitalization of expenses" is a good one, for example.  You spend a lot of money on some damn thing, and you argue that you are building a big good thing, so your expeditures are building up an asset - like the "work-in-progress" valuations..  Except it can all be bogus.  If you are building a nice house, or a new, fine factory to make a good, in-demand product, this might be fine.  But if you are building some really shitty software, which will be buggy and awful and bad and crash airplanes (for example), then maybe you had better just expense (ie *not* capitalize) your development costs. 

The way costs are treated is a huge, huge issue, and determines whether the business is good or bad.   You might want to invest in a good business.   You also want to *AVOID* investing in a bad business.

And your understanding of how accounting principles work, will let you determine which is which.

No one ever taught this in school - except one guy, as a free night class, at University of Waterloo.   The class was full, I recall.  It was short, sharp, clear and has kind of made me sort of rich. And it was not even a credit class.   :)

Funny how that works.

[ Nov. 7-8th, 2021 ] - It's Raining Weathermen - For amusing distraction, I am re-reading "Fooled by Randomness".  Interesting how much useful info one extracts on subsequent reads of well-written books.  Talab may be a rude prick, but he is a good writer, and his book has stood the test of time (unlike oh so many worthless tomes of baldersash and buffoonery).   The world is full of fools, and is run by idiot-savants who have learned the Art of Misdirection.   Twitter is perhaps the worst thing ever invented, and Facebook perhaps a close second.  The internet was going to be a wonderful giant library full of "all knowledge", and motivate democratic enlightenment around the world.

Instead, the most evil among us  - like those NSO monsters in Israel, for example (and even their Alphabet-Squadron namesakes - the NSA in the USA) - have turned it into the two-way televisor technology of Orwell's "1984".   That is just hilarious, really.    It shows that the Great Sweep of History is just a stable-broom, constrantly used to whisk out the dung from the barn-floor.  Nothing ever really changes.    What is sold now, is the illusion of positive change (with the dark reality kept quietly in the background.).

The best technological invention of the last 60 years is probably Eugene Stoner's AR-15 rifle.  It is just about perfect (much like a fuel-injected, low-emission automobile engine also is).  It stands at the end of a very long evolutionary development process - as does the integrated circuit and the CRISPR DNA splicing technology.   It takes a long time to get something right.

And what is curious, is just how disruptive good design actually is.   There are always evil forces that seek to degrade, limit, restrict and remove the machinery of positive change.

It is *those* folks we must "Stand on guard" against - not the funny-looking foreign-person who has different colour skin or different shaped eyes.    Our most dangerous enemies are the smiling politico-types, who have learned to manipulate the neural machinery of deception and aggressive obfuscation.  They can get the ignorant and the folks of limited cognative ability to march and march, and echo the Daily Lies, so much like the "Two-Minute Hate" that Orwell documented so carefully in his clever, awful little book. 

I thought 1984 was pretty close to being the deep-past.    But it seems still to hint at the future.   

See, the key takeaway from 1984, is that Winston Smith and Julia needed to have AR-15's, and that the "Two-Minute Hate" could be re-programmed to target not Goldstein, but Big Brother himself.

The "Tin-Foil Hat" crazy-people are not our enemies.   It is those guys in their suits, who have created processes and technical methodolgies, which ensure that no change to their abusive frauds and criminal enterprises are possible - example: Ortega in Niccarauga, and Lukashenko in Belarus.   I fear this is the pattern for the Future.   The criminals gain power, and then they rig the game, so they cannot be removed (like that toxic madman Mao, who burnt-down China).

This process is happening here, also - in both North America and Europe.  It is a problem.

[ Nov. 4, 2021 ] - Left-Fa$cist A-h@les in Power Positions - It is fascinating reading the dis-information and spin-manipulation that is taking place around the January 6th protest in Washington.     The new Leftist American Fascists (many of whom seem to be card-carrying "Democrat" party members) are now characterizing the January 6th protests as an "insurrection".   What an impressive lie!   Calling it an attempt at a violent "insurrection" is an absolute fraud.    Virtually no-one but the Washington Police and the Government security people were armed, and they wisely decided not to open fire on the un-armed crowd of citizen-protesters.  This was a good decision.

But an astonishing squadron of abusive, dishonest, Democrat "Judges" are handing out prison sentances to real-estate agents, office-worker, farmers, and other ordinary folks who arrived - unarmed - and tried to express their views on the what the protesters saw as the outright fraud and abusive dishonesty that characterized the recent US Presidential "election".  Regardless of how that strange election's results have been "sanitized", I watched it, and it sure looked like to me (and others) that Trump had won.    But all that is history now.   Those big bags of Biden-ballots were able to swing the results, and righteous people can only wait for another election to be held, and to try to ensure that it is honest and fair.

But the Democrat reprisals against the protesters is interesting.   And it is deeply disturbing.  Democrat-voting neo-Fascist agents were moving about the nation, provoking riots, motivating people to smash urban neighbourhoods, burn down cities, riot and do great violence - and the Woke-Left Fascists - supported by Democrats and their media-agents - even suggested that Americans should "defund the Police".     There has been no judicial reprisals against these folks.   This looked like madness - but it was not. 

Because it got Joe Biden elected - and his abusive, dishonest cronies got their powerful "catbird" seats, with power, privilage, and wealth.    And they got their licence to attack anyone and everyone who has tried to thwart their efforts.  Their plan now, is to raid the Treasury, and fund their cronies - to the tune of trillions of newly-printed US dollars.  Not good.  And maybe difficult.  But reprisals are easier, especially against the little guys and gals, who have no power.

And so now, a systematic attempt is underway to attack the weak and the underfunded, who have little choice but to plead guilty and go to jail, because they went to Washington to protest the outright fraud that they saw take place on election night, on their televisions.  They could not stop the Democrat machine from taking over, and collection of Leftist political opportunists from taking power in Washington.  But at least they tried.    We should give them credit for trying.

But the abusive "Democrat Judges" are giving them jail sentances.

The Democrat reprisals are ugly.   The world - right now - and even more so in the near future - needs and will need - an angry, strong, focused and willing-to-fight and die-for-their-beliefs America.    We need a Good and a Right-thinking, strong, fair and focused America.    Instead we got "Runaway Joe", and a morally-degraded and emotionally damaged US military that now appears (inaccurately) to be weak and broken.   This is a real problem.    The "War on Terror" was a minor skirmish, compared to what is looming in the future. 

I read these absurd lies in the American Leftist media, and it just blows my mind.   The liar-Leftist skanks who are suggesting the January 6th protest was "an insurrection" are such dishonest lying human garbage that it makes me just sick to my stomach.   

A real insurrection will involve a *lot* of guns and fighting, it will last for weeks or months, the body count will by measured in the *thousands* (or more), and it will involve the mass-murder of the protesters, and a subsequent secondary assault against the Government Fascist forces, which can also be expected to have a high level of violence, and the body count will be a large number.

It may or may not succeed, depending on which faction the Army and other forces, back.   This is how real "insurrections" work - they are bloody affairs, and they make real change happen.  Often, they are the only way change *can* happen.   This is unfortunate, but often true.

The January 6th protest event was a crowd of angry citizens trying to communicate with their so-called "Government", which they honestly believed was not legitimate, and which they viewed as being engaged in an illegal action which was trying to usurp power and authority unlawfully.

America is a democracy, and it appeared - to the protesters - that democracy had be stolen from them.   They thought they were justified in taking action to try to wrest their democracy back from the professional political opportunists, who they viewed as political thieves acting illegally.  

It was a protest.    And it truly needs to be seen as such.

But calling a legitimate protest against a corrupted and fraud-filled election process "an insurrection", is just another "fake-news" political gambit to allow the kind of ugly, politically motivated abuse-of-justice that we are seeing play out now.   This is just so wrong.

There is this rotting stench of failure and abuse - just disgusting human sludge - that comes from the offices of the US Government now.   Yes, you CAN fool some of the people all of the time, and all of the people, some of the time - and that is now enough, given that you also have a Leftist media lie-machine working for you, and you understand human neural-technology, and how to control human behaviour at the mass-market social level.

It is simply enough.   The Lie Machines can engineer the results you want to see, if enough money and dis-information is spread around, using the appropriate manipulative media technology.

But the various Judges and Woke-Left-Fascist Democrat toads that are attacking the individual January 6th protesters, and jailing them, might remember that the Wheel of Change does not freeze in place.     This witch-hunt taking place now, might just run in reverse, if there happens to be change of Government in the future.  

Once there is a change in Government, it will be necessary to carry out a very serious house-cleaning, and this time, the gloves will probably be off.  You need to deal with the bad folks, the thieves, the opportunists, the Fellow-Travellers, the woke-action-squadrons and all their nasty, dangerous abusive ilk.  And you need to take down the corrupt judges.  You defund them.  You strip them of their wealth and power, and you make an example of them that all can see clearly.

And if "change in Government" becomes impossible in USA (like it seems to be in most nations everywhere now, given the bogus procedures now in place almost everywhere), then the next "insurrection" may not be a faked-up media lie, but in fact, might actually be the real thing.

We really hope that can be avoided.  But if not, it will be even more interesting.

Let's Go, Brandon.

[ Nov. 2, 2021 ] - Let's Go, Dow Jones! - Dow 36,000 was reached yesterday.  An interesting event for me, since I vividly remember standing in a bookstore, in the Atrium (just north of the Eaton's Centre, in Toronto), and reading part of the book, titled "Dow 36,000", which came out back in 1999, and predicted this number - which was expected to be reached in the next few years - 2002 to 2005 timeframe I seem to recall.  This was a time of stability, and expections were high for peace and prosperity for the new 21st century.  Instead, the opposite happened - a veritable series of worst-case-scenario shitstorms, that are pretty common in the historical record - the dot-com bubble exploded, the scary-successful 2001 9/11 terrorist attacks on New York and Washington, and then the 2007-2008 US mortgage-fraud/financial-crisis meltdown, triggered by the bogus risk-models promoted by brain-fogged academics, embraced by low-honesty ratings agencies, and then weaponized by Wall Street clever boys.

And once we thought we had navigated thru all that steaming shit-storm of exploding investment land-mines, the Chinese unleash a lethal viral pandemic - and subsequent economic output collapse - upon the whole bloody world.

What is amazing, is just how important wise investing was, is, and still is expected to remain. 

The use of economic models - implicit or explicit - and some sort of evidence-based valuation assessment is critical.  It's the difference between investment success and failure, and as one's investments become one's primary source of income - this difference is the difference between life and death itself.

I knew - back in 1999, standing in Lichtman's wonderful little bookstore (that sold me my Wall Street Journal every morning), that "Dow 36,000" was both inevitable, and also an insanely "heroic" forecast, not likely to be seen for quite a while.  My detailed reviews and analysis of the post World War One, to the mid-1930's period - in USA especially - convinced me of this.  Markets run up, and then break down - pretty much mostly based on liquidity and the amount of money that is flowing and floating. 

So many unique and random events can affect the amount of money flowing around.    Everything from demographics to financial market technology to cultural bias to science discovery and engineering technical improvements - it all plays a role.  But it is money that drives the process - and the amount of money circulating is both improved by rising asset valuations and, the rising circulation of money enhances and drives upward realized asset prices.  And of course, credit available and the cost of credit is hugely important.

More money, means rising prices.   And rising prices means more money (maybe) for most folks, as they can hypothecate (borrow against) their rising asset values - to get more money.   So the process feeds itself, until it gets silly - like started happening in the middle of 1929, in USA and in USA-connected markets around the world.

You can read political garbage from fraudsters & lefty economists (like J. K. Galbraith), but the 1929 crash happened because of two things:  Interest rates were raised from 4% to 6%, by the USA federal authorities, and stocks were being - mostly - bought on credit, with as little as 10% down-payment for the purchases.  If you only put 10% down (buy on skinny margin), a 10% price drop will wipe you out.  A more than 10% drop, will burn away your wealth.

That means, once the interest-costs were jacked up 50% (!  A really goddamn massive price-increase in the cost-of-credit), all sorts of viable economic plans were simply vapourized.  And those margined purchases began quickly to blow up.

Most folks don't understand this.  They see a shift from 4% to 6% as no big deal.  This is curious.  The affect of interest rates on markets is still not well understood by academics.  Rises in credit cost have *extremely* significant behavioural effects, as they cause all sorts of economic plans to suddenly become non-economic.  Both businesses and consumers rush to pull the plug on projects which are now not likely to make money, once credit costs have jumped by 50%  - and the projects may not just be non-profitable, they may quickly become money-burning disasters, if allowed to continue.   So you have to act quickly.

But the flip-side is very, very different.  Dialing interest-rates down, from 6% to 4%, does not induce much behavioural response.  Neither businesses nor consumers rush out to buy a new factory, a new production-line, a new house or a new car, just because credit costs have come down.   So we can see that administered interest-rate changes have extremely non-linear reactive response effects in an economy.

And in the highly-margined, over-leveraged boom-time economy of the late 1920's, where real and significant massive technological change was driving real, actionable, employment-generating true growth in real output and also evident social prosperity - the jacking up of credit costs in such an abrupt and violent manner (who among us, does *NOT* react, if we are told prices are now UP 50% in LESS THAN ONE YEAR !?), ensured an economic collapse.

The 1930's Depression was fabricated by the actions of the American Federal Reserve, and other witless Government authorities.   It absolutely did *NOT* have to happen.

But it did.

And it is good to see the wisdom now being displayed by the USA Federal Reserve folks in our present world.   They actually have done a pretty damn good job, truth be told.   The inflation we are seeing now is moderate, and it is likely to become much worse, rather quickly.   But it is the cost we have to pay.  They just need to prevent it getting too hot, too quickly.  Once inflation gets entrenched in economic thinking, it takes *very* high interest rates to break the inflation-psychology problem - in the 1977 to 1981 period, it took 20%+ interest rates to get folks to save instead of spend, their surplus cash.  The Volker-prescription killed businesses left and right, and hammered the North American economy hard.  But it worked.  Extreme inflation was extinguished, and the 1980's boomed and the world was made a better place.

Everyone seems to have learned most of the lessons now - even the arrogant Chinese, who are much closer to squandering all their gains, than the poor unwise Communists realize.  We are actually cheering still for China, and it is hoped that Xi steps down and does not seek a third term.  We doubt this will happen, and we expect Xi will try to pull a "Putin", and change the procedures and process to entrench himself, and his cronies.  Our forecast for China is complex.   We doubt they understand just how dangerously close to complete disaster they are.  

A rigid, abusive, one-Party State is not able to self-correct or wisely respond to random events, and it risks destroying it's economic gains.   All change-events happen much quicker now.  China should move in exactly the opposite direction that it is going, and seek to copy the Taiwanese political model, while it is still possible for it to do so, without recourse to extreme violent change having to take place.    We doubt this will happen, and the resulting "Stalinization" of China, will degrade and then may terminate trading opportunities, and ensure that an eventual conflict scenario will become unavoidable.

But this time - Sparta is bloody well *not* going to win.    Sparta is going to be left flat, black and glowing.  What is disturbing for us all in the West, is that we suspect we will have to also endure and engineer some extreme change also, as we shift from a commercial, peace-time trade-based economic model - to something that may look a lot like England in 1941.   This will surprise a lot of foolish people.

The truly idiot politicians we now have in charge, will have to be removed, and replaced by wise individuals who both recognize and understand that all we have - everything and everywhere - is at risk, and under immediate and direct threat.   Only a very few people - at this point - understand and recognize the degree to which our 2000+ year-old Western Civilization cultural and economic models are under such sustained and carefully co-ordinated serious assault.

It's quite curious.  But when one looks closely, it turns out to be not that curious at all.  So, our investment forecasts are complex.   We have no choice, given the inflation we are seeing now, and expect to see in the future, we have to remain fully invested - and may even take on some leverage.    But everything we have, and everything we see, suggests we are tracking rapidly to an environment where some extreme, very-high-rate-of-change events will have to take place.   We just have too many dishonest opportunists and political scammers in positions of real power.

I am personally certain, just as I was when I read "Dow 36,000" in the Lichtman's Bookstore back in 1999, that we will *not* see the Joe Biden money-burn+climate-scam thing yield a peaceful world of "common prosperity".   This is a complete fantasy.   

What we are certain to see is a continued, rising groundswell of abusive political fraud, driven by media-engineered deception and Leftist opportunists, which is certain to be met by an equally rising force of angry, economically-degraded middle-class folks who have been taken down by the Covid lockdowns, and other unwise, authoritarian social re-engineering efforts.  There is no choice, except to maintain a loose-money policy, and promote an above-the-line inflation growth-rate.   If you try to dial-back things now, the result will be ugly for everyone.

And one thing we should *not* do, is waste-away another multiple trillion dollars on stupid make-work "infrastructure" and "climate-hoohaw" projects.  America especially, should spend the next couple of borrowed trillion on small, fast, nuclear-armed warships, hypersonic nuclear-missles, low-cost bombers and cheap, anti-ship and anti-aircraft guided missles, that can be launched from the back of a disguised Toyota pickup truck.    America should also plan *exactly* what they will do, when in the first 15 minutes of a "regional conflict", *all* of it's theatre-based aircraft carriers are sunk like bricks dropped into the sea.  

Probably, the aircraft carriers are now obsolete.   What you likely want, are a large fleet of fast, silent, submarines, armed with very-high-yield (but non-nuclear)  air-bursting hypersonic missles, which can deliver a lethal cloud of "active" shrapnel, and can destroy an entire army.  The subs might even be made of kevlar, and unmanned, and have the sonar and radar images of whales.  The idea is to get up close and personal to coastal cities, and have the technology to remove the "leadership" of an aggressor enemy nation.

But given the nonsense that we see reported in the public press, we see nothing like this being considered.   And given that the USA has opened it's Southern Border to all manner of undocumented  "refugees", it will take regime-change before the USA can get itself back on track, so it can at least defend itself, and it's economic and political-cultural interests around the world.   This critical shift in thinking (and policy) will not happen, under the existing regime.  This is the major risk we all face, at the current moment.  The Western-world economic and democratic political model, which dates back to Roman times, is under assault, both from outside forces, and internally, by a number of active entities.  It is making us weak, exposed and vulnerable to criminal exploitation by those who understand what is taking place.  This risk is very real, yet few even recognize it.   This is curious.

Let's go, Brandon.

[ Nov. 1, 2021 ] - Let's Go, Brandon! -  The "Let's Go Brandon" meme, was invented by a lying skank NBC journalist who tried to "spin-censor" what an entire crowd was yelling at an interview with NASCAR racer Brandon Brown, who had won a victory back on Oct. 2nd.  It is just the very best meme ever.   The entire crowd was yelling "Fuck Joe Biden!", and this could be clearly heard in the background of the interview.  The skank TV reporter tried to suggest that folks were yelling: "Let's Go, Brandon".   Oh yeah...  

This is as funny as Rus Russel's CNN piece, where the "horrible hurricane" live feed from the beach, ends up showing a guy in a Bear Suit, waving and clowning for the camera. 

The "Mainstream" media is just a comical engine of deception and manufactured "news", we all know this now.  But "Let's Go, Brandon" is the best.   It is just the very best.

Higher taxes, more fake "Climate Change" pseudo-science nonsense, and the destruction of the credibility of the US military, as the Afghan conflict ended in complete surrender to the Taliban terrorists.  This is what Joe Biden has delivered so far.    Afghanistan has turned into a nightmare horrorshow  - with Taliban agents going around to wedding ceremonies, and murdering people who are playing or singing or listening to music.   This is happening, while Anthony Blinken decries the "lack of diversity" in the Taliban "government".  Seriously.

And the "Climate Change" taxation-squads want us to believe that by paying higher fees and taxes on everything, we can somehow dial-down the energy output of our Sun.   Oh yeah...

"Let's Go, Brandon!"

[ Oct. 29, 2021 ] - Happy Birthday Linux - Linux is 30 years old now.  Linus is smiling.  We've been reading the details of the latest kernel (the guts of the Linux O/S).  They've added a bunch of stuff, and taken away all the legacy code for IDE drives, which will not likely affect too many, since old machines tend to run old kernel's (like us, on our IDE boxes).  SATA is fine, but I have a DEC-5000 box, with an IDE drive, that first runs Fedora, and then runs Mark Crispin's Panda TOPS-20 emulation environment, so it mimics a DECsystem 20/20.   I like the old APLSF interpreter.  It has this cool "TTY" translate set, which works crazy-well.   Funny how the good stuff, is often abandoned for really shit-quality stuff, which costs more, and does not work as well. 

Old, original design ideas are often just so much better.  (I was looking at Morgan's yesterday.  They are crazy beautiful old-style 1930's-looking motor cars.  Early models actually had frames made of Ash wood, a very strong, yet flexible wood.  The Morgan's  elegantly encapsulate the motoring experience.  You expect to meet Ariadnie Oliver on the road.  Just make sure you don't get hit by a half-eaten apple...)

I have this trivial skeleton of a "C" code based Linux-native X11/Gnome windows application working.  I can append text into the "listview" box.  Still cannot get the sliding taskbar thing at the side, to fast-scroll up and down, but I know it's doable.  Probably first task is to write some simple routines to load and save text files into the window, and thus have a simple GUI editor.  Basically two more buttons (Load and Save), code to pick up the filename from the TextEntry box, and some code to position the cursor in the listview box, and process it with read/write from/to a file.

How hard can it be, eh?   :)

Have you read Procopius "The Secret History"?  I recommend it.  There is a free copy from Project Gutenberg, which can be read in HTML or as a downloadable .PDF file.

https://www.gutenberg.org/ebooks/12916

Rome and Italy had basically fallen to the Goths, but the conquerers quite liked the Roman civilized life, with legal protections and recognized private property and wealth.  Justinian was the "Emperor" of the Eastern Roman Empire, based in Constantinople.  He married an "actress" who was documented by Procopius as essentially a highly-skilled, sadistic, prostitute.  

The traditional accounts of Justinian and Theodora are very lauditory, and paint these two as noble, justice-seeking leaders, and their "great" General Belisarius is much praised.

Procopius was actually the "Court Historian", and also acted as an Emissary and government official for Emperor Justinian.   He had first-hand knowledge of  what he wrote about.  His book, "The Secret Histories",  was an attempt to document the corruption, the horrific abuses and the obvious and evident destruction of the remaining Roman World, that he saw taking place all around him.   It is probably - along with the works by Heradotus, and the Homeric epics - one of the most important historical documents ever created.   He could not publish or even circulate it during his lifetime.  He wrote for the far-future - and that is why, we should read it.

It is *not* taught in schools, outside of a few arcane classes in some academic History departments, which few ordinary students will ever encounter.  I discovered the book at the Indigo Bookstore in Toronto, maybe 25 or 30 years ago.  It is a fascinating account, of a world falling apart, rotting with extreme corruption and characterized by increasingly astonishing cruelty.  Remember - Roman Law and Roman authority - and Roman patrician dignity, were what Rome was all about.  Roman wisdom and it's practical economic models, allowed large, prosperous cities and libraries to be built.   Roman justice was a real (and expected) thing, and Roman knowledge was taught in schools.  Wise laws allowed for private property, and this property could be passed on via inheritance to the sons and daughters of the wealthy Romans.  This Roman rule-of-law, trusted civil authority, commonly understood and accepted economic systems and procedures, legally recognized private land-holdings - along with the Roman Army to enforce it all - were what made the Roman Empire great, and allowed it to be accepted and respected by "conquered" peoples.  Rome expanded successfully, because it's economic and political model worked quite well.   Until it didn't, of course.

Procopius documents how Justinian, and his ambitious and cruel "actress-prostitute" wife, acted to assault and destroy much of what Roman Justice represented - except that they did this out of public view - while at the same time, they maintained a public image of themselves as being change-agents trying to encourage, enhance and maintain justice and rule-of-law.   Justinian was responsible for the codification of Roman laws into the "Corpus Juris Civillis" (Body of Civil Law), which is sometimes called the "Code of Justinian", and as such, he has been raised on a high pedistal by some historians.   

Procopius suggests that this was all a "public relations exercise" (my words, not his) , and he describes the abuses carried out against Roman citizens in the Eastern Imperial capital, as well as the venality, personal & professional failures and disasters of the "great" Belisarius, a military leader who appears to have simply gotten lucky in his first campaign.  His initial success was never to be repeated, and his wife was apparently a harlot, and was protected by Theodora.  Belisarius - according to Procopius - was a cuck, a fraud and a failure.    

When Procopius's account was first discovered in the Vatican Library in 1623, it was suspected of being a fake or a fraud.   But scholars have admitted - mostly - that it is almost certainly genuine.  Procopius wrote the lauditory historical *PUBLIC* documents: "The Wars of Justinian" and "Buildings of Justinian", and historians focused on these, until "Anekdota" (or "Secret Histories") was found - and numerous manuscripts at that.  It checks out (as much as it can be) with other bits of the historical record.   The first version, was published in 1623 by a researcher in ancient Greek, named Niccolo Alemanni.  He published it - not in Italy - but  in Lyon France.  By showing so clearly, the fraudulent "false-faces" of Kings, Emperors and supposedly "great" military leaders, it probably contributed to the Enlightenment of the Western World, and the profound changes which occurred everywhere in the 1600's - from Europe to North America, to Japan.

I am profoundly interested in the mechanisms and psychological/neural means by which we try to "live in truth".   "Living in Truth" (the worlds and prescription of the famous playwrite and statesman Vaclav Havel) is very difficult, even at the best of times.  When confronted by the "worst of times" (the expression coined by famous English writer Charles Dickens), it becomes extraordinarily difficult, and problematic - and bloody dangerous, if history be a guide.

The power of the "Lie", both big and small, is very, very great.

I think Procopius wrote his "Anekdota" as a theraputic exercise, and as an atonement, for what he probably viewed, in his heart, as his deep sin of being the "Court Liemaker" for Justinian.

Many years back, we were young hotshots at lunch, and one of our group ( a very clever fellow, who went on to a very successful career in our Federal Government - becoming a seriously powerful fellow...) remarked that it was time to end our pleasant lunch, since he "had to go back and write some more lies for his employer" - those were his exact words, and we all laughed, since we knew it to be essentially correct.

I can't prove it - but I am 100% certain, that the Chinese knew (and know) exactly how the corona-virus escaped from the research lab in Wuhan, and visited a lethal plague and an economic collapse on our World.   It would be so much better if they were completely honest - but my own (and other's, also, of course) experience is, that truth simply does not come out, when any power or government or great wealth is involved.   It remains buried, and is not accessable until perhaps hundreds - or thousands? - of years pass.

This is a problem.

But I seriously think "The Secret History" is weirdly and wildly important now, since it shows just how different the public and the private face of things can be.   

We have our modern analogs, in the detailed accounts of the actions of Hitler, Stalin and Kennedy and Kruschev.   Hitler had only one descended testicle, and liked to be kicked and abused by prostitutes.   He was perverse, and cruel, and caused great harm, yet he projected a fine public face, spoke about duty and justice, and initially, his National Socialists restored Germany and it's economy.  He was able to mobilize a defeated people, and raise them to - temporary - military greatness.  His abusive military efforts to improve Germany, ended up causing it's destruction.

Jack Kennedy - the son of the well-known stock-fraudster Joe Kennedy, would use people whenever and where-ever he could, in the most cruel manner, and would tell the most outrageous lies right into the camera, since he knew well, the astonishing power of electronic media.   He had an intense sexual liason with Marilyn Monroe, then dumped her on his abusive and dishonest brother - who then enjoyed her for a while, and then also sent her packing.    She committed suicide by means of a drug overdose.    Kennedy talked of peace - and yet took the world to the very brink of nuclear war with Russia, and began and then escalated the Vietnam War, which caused the deaths of millions - and over 50,000 American soldiers - and ended in the complete defeat of South Vietnam's forces, and the collapse of the nation.    The details of why Jack Kennedy was killed - an event which occurred almost before my lifetime  - have still not been released.   

Stalin employed the most cruel and sadistic human monsters as "Intelligence Agents" - spies -  and made it clear that anyone who crossed them (and even very many who did not but might have!) were to be made to disappear, and then be killed.  He was a murderous gangster - but showed courage, and did not abandon Moscow when the German forces were in the suburbs.

Kruschev looked the part of the thug and the gangster - yet he reformed the Stalinist machine of routine arrest and murder, and set Russia on a modern path.  He also wisely removed the Russian nuclear missles from Cuba, which prevented a nuclear war, and probably saved the world.   He played the role of the gangster, yet actually acted as a wise statesman when it became necessary.

The lesson of Procopius, is that nothing is really ever as it seems, and that the image of the wise leader who seeks justice, and military actions which appear to be successful - are very likely to be what we call now:  "fake news".    In truth,  "Leaders" typically use their power to enrich themselves and destroy their opponents, while wars cause damage, mass-death, and destruction for everyone.  Extreme, decisive victory is rare, and when it does occur, it is often squandered.

The machinery of lies, fraud and State-sanctioned cruelty and property-theft continue to this day - "in every land & every nation, from Lake Geneva to the Finland Station" (to use the words of a popular song..)   

And now, much like the "Greens and the Blues" of ancient Roman Byzantium, we are seeing intense factional "culture-wars" taking place - not just in the USA, but everywhere, as Government people seek taxes - for themselves and their cronies - and private citizens seek to protect themselves from the abusive depredations of their "public authorities" - who are often little more than opportunistic gangsters who have managed to sieze power by means of rigged elections, political deceptions and extraordinarily successful media manipulations.

For serious scholars, here is an interesting link to a scholarly study, which suggests the Anekdota (the "Secret History") was written around 550.    This is the conclusion of Tamas Meszaros, who wrote a little 20 page .PDF on the topic:

https://core.ac.uk/download/143647981.pdf

And for *investors*, it is interesting to read about the explicit "debasement of the coinage" and the resulting inflation, as is reported by both Procopius in his work, and a historian called Malalas, who wrote in 553, it is believed.

Procopius reports:  "The money-changers were formerly prepared to exchange, on behalf of their clients, two hundred and ten obals (which they called "folles") for one gold coin.  But they devised a a way to make a profit for themselves, by decreeing that only one hundred and eighty obals was now the proper exchange rate for a gold coin.  In this way, they shaved one seventh off the value of each gold coin of all men."    This is interesting, and very curious.  We would expect gold to maintain itself, and *increase* in value.  This makes it appear gold is falling in value.

But I suspect the exact opposite was happening - and that gold was retaining its value, while the "obal" was falling in value.  Justinian dealt with this "injustice" of the moneychangers by decreeing that the old exchange rate had to be enforced.  But he was wise enough to make it appear that his fixed-exchange-rate decree had the popular effect of appearing to be an action that *benefited* the public.  But of course, if prices were rising, and scarcity increasing, and citizens were trying to leave the city and the Eastern Empire, the value of gold would have been rising.  A fair-market exchange rate might have been 250 to 300 or more obals for one gold coin, assuming the coin really was gold.   Clever and devious Justinian was simply smart enough to make his decree of a fixed exchange rate, appear to be a popular action mandated by him at the request of the people. 

Now that sounds remarkably modern, does it not?  There is an interesting video about Procopius, by a fellow on Bitchute.  It's a tad dramatic, but quite interesting.   But best is to read the actual work by Procopius himself, in translation.  It was the first of it's kind - and a warning to the far future, which I suspect Procopius, as a historian, understood was likely to be his true audience.

 [ Oct. 27-28, 2021 ] - Pinot Noir & A Little Night Music - Usual prelude to a minor disaster.   A nice dinner, a bit of wine, and to bed.   Wake up in nighttime to see how the world looks, and all the lights go out.  

We have a big tree down on power line, at 4:00 am - the lights went out (slowly), as the arcing high-voltage wire burns part of the tree. 

So, from my warm bed, I am thus outside, on top of a ladder, with a running chain-saw,  just about to cut the nasty leaning nightmare, when the Hydro guys show up, and suggest they ground the high voltage ilne, before I start my crazy-dangerous project.  So, I wait. 

But they brought floodlights, (on their truck)  and it makes the job much easier.  The tree is leaning on the power line on my property, so I own the problem.    I bisect the big tree, at the right point, and as it comes down, everything lands where it should, and no-one gets killed - or even injured (except the aluminum ladder - and only slightly).  The lads from the  Hydro-electric utility are most impressed.  (They made me sign a waiver, actually...)   They check my power line (it held), and remove the ground shunt, and reset the big high-voltage breaker at the highway pole.

And "Fiat Lux!"   The ranch-house lights go back on, and we check the "smart meter", and it is giving correct readout, and all is well.  I say goodnight to the emergency crew, and go in and bring the network back on-line.  All seems good and fine.  At least it wasn't raining.  

All's well, that ends well!  :)

[ Oct. 26, 2021 ] - Fresh C Air, with Glade - Spent several serious days learning "Glade" and how to call the "libglade" stuff, to make some X11-Windows/GNOME windows come alive on our Linux boxes.   This tech is very cool.   You build your forms using an open-source software tool called "Glade" that has been around for 20 years - and runs on the old Linux 2.6.26, and 2.6.32 kernels (the old reliable boxes), and also on the CentOS-7 boxes (various modern 64-bit systemd kernels). 

You create a project in Glade, and the system outputs a big "xml" file, that describes your X11/GNOME window-form, complete with entry-boxes, buttons, list-view boxes, etc... all the stuff from the original Tcl/Tk  (which runs fine on all platforms also).  

But once you have your GLADE form built, you can use a "C" program to load the thing, and create all the event-handlers to make the buttons and boxes come alive, and interact with the world.  I was skeptical I could get it all working - but I did.  :))   (It is insanely complex and detailed - like you are building using assembler macros, and so on.   Basically, you are calling back and forth between and among those 100,000 library routines in the GNOME GTK and Glade libraries.)

You compile the C-loader program, which has a bunch of event-handlers (code that does stuff) and link to maybe 100,000 different library routines in all the GTK and GNOME stuff (the X11-Windows front-end for Linux, which gives a Windows/MacBook style graphical desktop), and also the "libglade" libraries.  

When all the include files (the *.h "header files") and the dynamic linked library files (what Microsoft calls .DLLs, and what Linux calls /usr/lib/lib<yatttayatta>.so.<version> files (also in lib64, for the 64-bit boxes), are actually found (hint: you can use some voodoo from the pkg-config utility, to build the nutty-long gcc (the "c" compiler on Linux) command line, it actually  works good.  I will publish this skeleton-bone example, of what I have working.

Or, if you are special, you can use the autoconf, autom4te, libtools, M4 and configure buildstuff for "Makefile" creation -  that is mostly beyond human understanding.  (Someday, I will learn how that insane build system voodoo works - or I will use Cmake, or Googles Gradle - or more likely I will design and build my own build-system, that I can actually understand....)   The GLADE build/configure toolset, actually seems to create a skeleton build environment.  I will try to learn it.

The entire upshot of several days of insane work, has allowed me to create a single binary program (called "project1", the default GLADE name for your first "project"), and when it runs, it flings up a window, with a "listview" box, a single "entry box" for text, and two buttons.  One button exits the program, and the other, causes a string of text (the current system-time, from the C-library "time.h" routines)  to be displayed in the big "listview" box.  This provides a very bare-bones, pure Linux binary version application skeleton, which runs as an executable file in a GNOME session - on all the Linux boxes I have (32-bit and 64-bit systemd boxes).    And it supposedly - if gcc is available ( or a gcc-compatible compiler like Clang or something), and the libglade (or modern GTKbuilder) libraries are loaded - can also be made to work on Windows-10 and MacOS - supposedly.  

But the fact that I have it working on Linux Gnome/X11/Gtk-2 is very, very amazing and fine.  I have Gtk-2 version 2.24 on the CentOS-7 boxes, and Gtk-2 version 2.18 on the older, 32-bit Linux boxes.   You just compile the source for each target machine, and the form gets flung up almost the same.   (I recall I had to build a more modern Gtk (routines for graphic display stuff for GNome) on the older Linux 32-bit boxes. 

Needless to say, the profs. in the Computer Science faculties and departments around the world, have been teaching this stuff, for years.   It seems to be the guts of lots of modern applications (like Firefox browsers, and other web-blathery stuff).  

I just want to extend and replicate stuff I have already running in Windows (and run on Linux, using WINE, the Windows Emulator (which is not actually an emulator, more of an API-translator..)   The attraction of using "C" is that you can *always* make it work, if you beaver away enough at it.  It's just like writing Assembler code - which I am actually pretty comfortable with.

The whole project is like being a kid, and tearing down the engine in your car, replacing the headers, boring out the cylinders, changing the piston-rods, and putting fuel-injection on the whole system.  You can add 100 or 200 HP, and have fun at stoplights, leaving Porsche 911's in your wake-trail.  Now - the cars can be ordered (like in the old days) with big engines with serious horsepower.  But  not for much longer.  You will need a "Plaid" Tesla, or a Piper Navaho, with a PT6 turboprop powerplant, perhaps?  :)

Saved by technology - again.

[ Oct. 22, 2021 ] - Home Hobbies for Fun, Profit, Education and World Domination. - We can burn our own code into our own chips, and put those chips into our own computers, and run them - all without any reliance on Apple OSX or Microsoft Windows.  We upgraded the Debian box (a little box called "Berkeley"), which also runs an experimental Apache2 server with an old Php5 version, as a little web-server experiment.   But the real cool thing, is that we upgraded the gcc by compiling the newer gcc we needed, using the old gcc version.  It all works, and little "Berkeley" can run udev correctly, and the Minipro software can see the TL-866II-Plus hardware, and so we can burn the chips (ie. flash our code into them), using a reliable Debian LINUX, which we have been learning.  Now that Redhat is owned by IBM, (and has become just crazy-complex with "systemd"), it is curiously difficult to do much of anything with modern CentOS boxes.

Debian Linux (with it's elegant "apt get" methodology to install/configure software), is the canonical base-line for both Apple's OSX and for the very popular Ubuntu Linux.   I decided I had better learn it.  ( I spend something like 25 hours, just getting a god-damn simple communications utility installed on one of my CentOS-7 boxes.   It was insane - until after an entire night of google and duckduckgo searching, I found the secret piece of trickery that was needed - literally two single lines of "systemctl" commands - I was absolutely show-stopped.  I had the code, I had installed it, I had confirmed it was installed correctly, I had the instructions, I knew exactly what needed to be done - and yet, *nothing* would work!! - the access link stayed dark, the machine would not respond.  It was hilariously awful and comically frustrating.  It is just bad, bad, not-good modern design.

But it is "tricky world" now.  The entire internet code-base is being actively "obfuscated" and available methodolgies are being deliberately disrupted and degraded - so that only the major players can do anything,   This is a very obvious, very well understood, and very well documented strategy in the Economics literature.  It has been used by major "monopolistic" players for a long time.  It's an economic strategy that is hundreds of years old, and is the reason why large, well-run national economic entities with significant commerical interest, have "anti-trust" legislation.  (Eg. USA's  "Sherman Anti-Trust Act')

As a small-player, we are curiously locked-out of any ability to engage in almost all profitable business on the internet now, it seems.  We simply cannot transact now - as sellers - in the "big world" anymore.  It is very interesting.   We can act as "buyers", but not suppliers.  The only place we have any advantage, is as direct investors, in the equity markets. 

We are locked out of the bond markets, we cannot trade commodities (no entities exist anymore to facilitate this), we cannot trade the VIX, etc.   And the Microsoft and Apple techical environments are riddled with dangerous user-tracking code, as are all the web-browsers and virtually *any* software-as-a-service that you use on the internet, anywhere, for any purpose. 

Our investments are doing very well - but only because it is one area, where we have engineered a very small advantage.

But I worry - given how hard we have worked on this - 30 years and counting - what are the modern kids going to do?   I fear they are just going to be f**ked over quite badly.   The schools are keeping them really stupid, teaching racism nonsense and truly foolish politics, and the business-technology world is being actively rigged against them - a little bit more now, each and every day.

Apple is the most dangerous.   They truly represent a threat to the future - because they took a fine and useful open environment, (from the Next Inc, project, basically Debian/Berkeley Unix/Linux)  and have closed it, and take 30% from anyone who wants to try to transact in their ecosystem.   They blocked *all* our applications from their nasty iStore, and Google did the same thing, removing *all* six of our .APK apps from their "Playstore".

Probably, both companies should be broken into several pieces.  Both Apple and Google should be required to divest themselves of their "Company Store" entities, and the curiously closed internet economy should be opened up to other players.

We are fine, since we have built the tools to "do our own thing".  We were lucky, since we got there early, when it was all beginning.  But it has become very different now.

I think this is one thing Xi of China gets seriously right.   The modern technology-driven prosperity needs to be made available to more folks who are willing to work hard, and take risks.

No matter how good you are, and how hard you work - if you cannot get product out there, and make it available to clients & customers, then you are just economically killed dead.  In the Covid world of masks and lockdowns, you can't even take a meeting, or do a live presentation.

But we are fortunate.  The technology we have built, is working.

It's working quite well, actually.  We probably would not have stayed long into October here without it.

 [ Oct. 21, 2021 ] - The Witches of MacBeth Whisper, While We Wear Mirrorshades..  - "Bubble bubble, toil and trouble, cauldron boil and cauldron bubble..."  Even the AI says we are a tad ahead of ourselves here.  Mtk may continue on it's run, but the Evergrand thing and the high-crazy prices for assets I am seeing, and the 18% rates in Turkey - it's pretty much a perfect indicator-set to flag a bit of runaway bubble.  I heard the Witches whisper to me - I am a terrible poker player, because I am a symphony of "tells" - I get twitches and shivers when it starts to get silly - like being "Lost in Jarez" - I turn around, and there is no-one there ...   Weird sensation.  I figure it is the gray-cell neural-net dumping a new gradient into the mix, and the output of something somewhere triggers.   

The Lehman wipeout cost roughly 35 billion US, and Evergrand is set to default on 19 billion on Monday.  We learn - as students of marginal-analysis, from our economics classes - that it is the movement at the margin that sets the tone and drives the big process.   We are still looking pretty frisky everywhere today - and bitcoin is hitting serious high-values - which is impressive, for digital nothingness.  (Be a Sartreian Trader - don't just trade the wind - trade absolutely nothing at all.  Why not? :) )

Suddenly, it looked like the perfect picture of a runaway bubble.  Some say the Evergrand default is priced-in - but they forget that it will likely be a serial set of defaults on maybe *all* highly-leveraged Chinese "property" companies.   Xi does not realize that you cannot attack the top tier of your best prosperity-generators, and expect that it will be a costless exercise.   He has blown up, and the arrogant fellow does not realize it yet.    It's like that scene in the "Hunt for Red October", where the captain of the pursuing sub, removes the torpedo interlocks.   Xi has done the same thing to his own economy.    It suddenly occurred to us, that the  Chinese property+technology meltdown, could hit the world, rather like the 2008 "Bogus Housing Valuation Crisis" in USA hit the world.    Even if the Gov't of China takes over "Evergrand", and makes the 19 billion USD payment, it might not be enough.   I expected Evergrand would have been able to unload it's property management company, but given that they could not - even at a fire-sale price - it means the whole sector is tracking on very thin ice.  (update:  Wrong, China does not matter, it turns out.  There are reasons, to numerous to go into here...)

Full Disclosure:  We closed out the largest chunk of our holdings yesterday - our biggest position.  The risk-reward balance basically required we do so.   We got a good price, and the risk-indicators have all gone red, and the Evergrand sale-failure rang a bell.  

Full Disclosure - part le deux:  Just felt too wrong, not being  invested at beginning of a big inflation.  Even if China blows up, our banks will be OK.  It's comical.   The price of what we sold did a hard downtick, and I bought it all back.  In for a penny, in for a pound.   The whole *stimulation* thing, is just working too well.  We could have several more years of this.  So - literally one day later, we are back to being hard all-in.    I could not do this kind of thing, without the AI.  We are not naturally gamblers.  I am trying to channel John Maynard Keynes - and I seem instead to be tuning into some old riverboat gambler fellow... ("All a gambler needs, is a suitcase and a trunk, and the only time, he's satisfied, is when he's a cyberpunk...")

Excuse me, while I don my mirrorshades...

[ Oct. 18, 2021 ] - Diversification is Useless & the Fundamentals are Unsound. - Everyone knows this.  Or they should.   I feel a responsibility to elaborate on my assertions made in the previous entry, for Oct. 17th.   The economic "fundamentals" are close to the worst they have probably ever been in modern times, and diversification is not helpful, if your objective is to make money in the markets.     You can make a *lot* of money during times of very unsound economic practices, that are characterized by really bad fundamental economic characteristics, and if you want to make better-than-average returns on your small capital, you must concentrate your limited capital, and put it all (and maybe even more!) into your very best idea, and then monitor and track carefully how that investment is behaving thru time.  And the specific characteristics of the investment itself, will determine holding periods, acceptible levels of volatilty, and the specific risk-management strategy to be employed.

And if you buy and/or write a lot of options to try to eliminate portfolio "tail-risk", your actions will enrich your counter-parties, and impoverish - or at least degrade - your own efforts.   Nothing is free - and the guys on the other side of your "risk-reduction strategies" are simply insurance salesmen, and the price of their high-rate-of-decay, rotting insurance, will be high.  Using options to attempt to reduce or elminate market risk, will typically fail to benefit, as the contracts - characterized by their little greek letters - have features which tend to make them bad insurance vehicles, and also particularly awful investments.

So, beware the "broker".  To invest wisely, you need to do (or acquire) useful, accurate, actionable research - and that research has to be the result of real effort, and it has to have identified something specific, or a series of unique factors, which the market has not yet noticed, but can be expected to move the price of the market-linked asset, once the unclear or unknown market-moving information is pulled (or pushed!) into the wider market-place.

Of course monetary conditions and underlying economic fundamentals matter - but markets can move down when fundamentals are good, and be bid up, during periods of very bad fundamental economic conditions. - rather a lot like what is happening right now.   And diversification - especially now - is pretty close to useless, as the price-changes of most financial assets typically move together now.   One sees the "risk-on/risk-off" phenomenon, as the cross-correlation-matrix values move towards unity.   All trades seem to become the same trade.   It makes for nerve-wracking (but profitable!) outcomes.    :)

[ Oct. 17, 2021 ] - De-leverging for Fun, Profit and World War Three? - Well, maybe.  I watched a couple of Ray Dalio's videos (the iPad can run Youtube videos, if you replace the triple "w" with a single letter "m", so we can watch Ray Dalio's CNBC "SquawkBox", outdoor interview, at:  https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=KLdYfEIX8e0 

This is an interesting 18-minute interview, and Ray is bright guy, but his entire take-away advice is: 1) you should be diversified, and 2) fundamentals are sound.    I actually howled with laughter, since this is what every stock-broker has been taught to say since the dawn of time.  And it is complete and absolute standard bullshit.  It is just plain *wrong*.  This is because "diversification" is really a strategy only for the already-very-rich, and it is typically during times of unsound, obviously deteriorating fundamentals, that folks get concerned about their market-linked high-volatility investments.  So brokers and portfolio-runners will generally offer this data-stream of comfortable falsehoods, to placate their frightened clients.  But Mr. Dalio is not unwise. 

Mr. Dalio runs Bridgewater Associates, I am guessing, and I guess he is basically a broker/portfolio-runner.  First time I have ever seen his stuff.  He is a history buff and looks to be a damn good analyst.  Bravo to him.   In this interview, he indicates he knows his stuff, and has a model picture-of-the-world that works.   Seriously, I am impressed.

So, I looked for more of his stuff, and I found this great 30 minute video of his "Economic Template", and it is a good little seminar.  It should be an extended "Ted Talk".  It's very good, and I recommend it.  The wheels start to fall off around 26-minutes into the video - where he talks about the possibility of a "beautiful deleveraging"  We would suggest, gently and sadly, that such an event is "economic-science-fiction".   But watch the video, his understanding of the short and long term credit-cycles is very good, and the video offers a very good explanation of what really happens as an economy drives thru time.  It is a very good template - really very well done.  It's called "How the Economic Machine Works":

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=PHe0bXAIuk0

We take issue with the possible "Beautiful De-leveraging" concept.  Given the inflation we are now seeing, and the fact that the "rich"  (where are those guys?) will not sit by and allow their assets to be confiscated and "re-distributed" by government authorities (increased taxation risks creating extreme behaviour changes on the part of investors and business owners), nor will the monitization of the government debt be sustainable for much longer because it is actively destroying the rate-of-return on capital.   We believe there is absolutely zero chance of balancing the "forces of deleveraging" - and that the policy responses will be (because they already are) simply an ongoing, monetary and fiscal-debt expansion, which will create a really big asset-and-debt bubble.  The efforts will be directed at preventing this bubble from bursting, and will be successful - if more monetary expansion (money-printing to buy financial assets) is made to continue.    Since it has worked reasonably well - without much inflation so far - the expectation is that it will continue to keep working.   So they will keep doing it.

We have a little model which suggests this process can go along for quite awhile further.  It will also imply increasing prices for equity positions.  The stock market will likely continue to run much further, along with the expanding money+credit driven economy.  Any attempt to dial back this process, will produce a brutal downturn, and the policy people probably know this.

The easiest solution is to let the economy inflate, and begin a process of shifting up short term administered interest rates, to reflect this inflation.   We need a good, solid 7 to 10% annual inflation rate, to begin the least-painful mechanism of de-leveraging needed to maintain firm economic "growth", and also reduce the real value of the high debt-burden and tax-burden that every economic agent at every level is beginning to feel.

The inflation will be ugly and painful - but it will keep the stock market frisky and bubbly, it will maintain employment levels (and reduce unemployment), and assist in reducing the real costs of the public-sector (and private sector) debts that have been built up.

The danger of course, is that the 7 to 10% inflation, can quickly become 15 to 25% inflation rates, and then the serious "stagflation" problems begin, prices stop working as information signals related to supply scarcity or demand changes, and real disruptions hit the labour market as wage-pressures smash the productivity gains that an economy needs to keep moving higher.  This makes the economy run hot, fast, harsh - and badly - as all productivity gains are eclipsed by inflationary gains.  This is the point where the markets see what is happening.   Market gains may flatline or go negative, like they did in the early 1970's.  Capital fails to return any real gain at all, and so it leaves the infationary economy, for a better-managed economy, where gains result from real economic output improvements, rather than just inflationary accounting entries.

Inflation is very dangerous, if it gets into the double digits.  The whole economic engine breaks.   So few people really understand this, unless they have lived thru it, or studied it in detail.

All prices become "fake" - like the "fake news" and "fake election results" and the "fake business" (the scams) that are enabled by easy internet access that "con artists" can have to honest (but gullible) "marks".

Inflation creates "fake economic gains", which do real damage to economic productivity.  The ordinary person has to pay bills with money-values, not real-values, so he or she does not care whether the gain is inflationary or real - he just wants to pay the bills.

Interest rates have to be *above* the rate of inflation, for there to be any gain at all, on financial assets - that means bonds need to yield 7 or 8 percent, if the inflation rate is only 5 or 6 percent.  People (and bankers) figure this out quickly, and act accordingly.  Taxes have to go *way* up to collect enough to even cover debt-costs by Governments.    A big inflation will let Governments pay down their future obligations with devalued currency - but the tax-burdens that have to be applied to an inflationary economy, begin to appear absurd, and seriously discourage real business investment.

The whole economic environment becomes "fake news".  Strikes and wage-disputes become common, and although there is lots of money around, prices are shifted higher than wage gains, to reflect the future expected (increasing) inflationary costs.

Everyone is unhappy, as prices now reflect both economic scarcity AND expected, uncontrollable future inflationary costs.   Savings - which is the money that feeds the investment process - basically stop working, as they lose their value too quickly, and so must be spent and turned into hard assets, before the inflation destroys their value.    In this way, an economy that is flowing with cash-money, finds that it suffers an investment starvation.

The central bankers are saying "inflation is transitory".  Well, so is life.    Inflation literally *kills* folks on fixed-incomes.  Anyone on a fixed income finds they grow poorer each day, and eventually become unable to cover their food+rent+tax+health/medical costs.  They become "Wards of the State", in their "Golden Years", despite their properly-funded pension-plans, that they thought they had wisely arranged for, so they would have income in their old age.

The whole problem here, is that money-printing plus out-of-control government spending to create massive government debt-burdens, is absolutely certain to produce eventual: 1) serious inflation and/or  2) serious deflation.

We are almost certain to get both.  We will probably see serious inflation for the next few years, followed by either a really ugly hyper-inflation (unlikely), or a hard-core austerity program, where a complete new crop of political people come along, and simply align sustainable taxation levels, with sustainable government spending levels.

There is absolutely zero chance of "A Beautiful De-leverging", as Dalio suggests is possible in his video.    That's a Traum-story.

So, maybe we get the big Depression (about 7 or 8 years from now), followed by World War Three - probably fought with bio-agents and cyber/electronic-methods of disruption, rather than warships and nuclear bombs.   This might be what Mother Nature wants to see happen, as it could reduce global population by a large percentage, which will have to happen also, at some point in the medium-term future.

Interesting times ahead.   :)

[ Oct. 16, 2021 ] - Burning Chrome & Leaping Lightly - Got the Minipro chip-burning software working with the new Debian box, which has udev and libusb-1.0, so the little TL866ii-plus universal programmer can be seen by the Linux O/S, and confirmed it all works.  Updated the combined Z80-Monitor+ROM-Basic chip assembler program, compiled and linked a binary-image file, and burned it into the little Z80-Northstar's SST rom-chip.  Plugged new SST ROM-chip into the Northstar SBC (single-board-computer), and confirmed Z80 Monitor & BASIC interpreter runs fine. 

I like this "we make it all" approach, primitive as it is, since I can know exactly where every single byte is, and exactly what it is doing.  Programming - and investing - is like operating a U-Boat or an aircraft.  Either you have all possible parameters under control, or you are really just f*cking around, and you will be blindsided by some exogenous risk-factor.  The last flight-recorder voice-entry typically heard during post-crash analysis, is the pilot saying: "Oh shit..."

The key to good design effort, and to good investment acton, is to try to prevent that sad outcome.   :)

[ Oct. 15, 2021 ] - Just the Beer-Light (and Some Code) to Guide Us - "Ziggy sang us songs, of darkness and disgrace... but when the kids had killed the Man, I had to break up the Band."   Mr. Stardust is gone, and we are left only with anti-matter Black Stars.   But if you are to live like Lazarus, you had better invest like the Highlander.

I built gcc 4.8.5 (using gcc 4.x) on a Debian machine, and then used the gcc 4.8.5 to build a Z-80 macro-assembler, called "zasm", version 4.2.1.  Looks like it all worked.  Used the new Debian-platform to run zasm to assemble a bunch of code, to be burnt into an SST ROM, which runs in the Z-80 "NorthStar" SBC we both build and run.  Looks like it worked, but I don't have the Z-80 emulator running yet.    I have to burn the binary .rom file into the SST chip, and drop the chip on to the board, to know for sure if the whole process worked correctly, which is why auto companies have race-tracks, and aircraft makers have test-pilots.   You really don't know, until your "first flight" if everything really is ok/good. (I am hoping I can get "minipro" (the chip-burning software) to run right on the Debian box. Currently, it only runs on the MacBook and the CentOS 6.6 box (which is a giant tower, the size of an old VAX 750 almost), but *not* on the Linux laptops, since their version of udev is too early (I need full udev 1.0 library, not the one that is running on the 2.6.26 kernel boxes, which is ver. 0.1 ). 

I really want a small Linux box that runs the NorthStar development environment fully.  Minipro has to talk easily to the USB port, and you need udev 1.0 which means you need Linux kernel 2.6.32 minimum, to get the proper function.  I do not like "systemd", as it is basically a "full-employment act" for IBM+Redhat engineers now - an insane, hyper-complex ball of whirling mud, which offers no gain, but lots of pain for folks who just want to run on a uni-processor.

Funny world now.  You can see why Apple is pwning it all.  Most other major tech enterprise players are turning into abusive "surf nazis"   (" Der Clients must PAY!  Und, they must PAY every  DAY!").  

Market seems to be rumbling along fine, which is matching our "anti-crash" speculation.  We are getting the most absurd repeatable patterns I have ever seen and yet not-traded.   The major risk now, is being out of the market, as a ballistic move to the upside seems to be in the cards.  All ist klar, Herr Commissar?   :)

[ Oct. 14, 2021 ] - The Anti-Crash - Markets tend to crash in October, due to what we call, the"Thanksgiving Harvest" effect.  But this year, with inflation running hard, and the borrowing-boom continuing, we will likely see the "Anti-Crash".   We have remained all-in long.   That trade is still working.   :)

[ Oct. 13, 2021 ] - Cheech Wizard Market Notes- I ran across a lizard wearing a big WIzard's hat.   And I asked him (since he *said* he was a Wizard), what the Market would do.  He said it would "fluctuate" (at least, I think that is what he said...might have been "fock, I hate...".  Hard to know exactly, since he was talking thru a hat..).   As the enlightened Mr. Bode demostrated, the future is a difficult business.  It's best if one can be there, in it.

Jamie Dimon, the CEO of JPM,  says "Bitcoin is worthless", and so was the German money from the 1922-23 time period. But I paid $20 for a mint-condition 50,000 Dmark bank-note, with multi-colour lithography and a fine watermark.  That Note is quite *worthless*, but I just wanted it, since the bank-notes are physical documentation of the insane German inflation from the 1920-23 period.  They are valuable as historical artifacts.  They started out as really valuable money, and ended up fully worthless - except they are not, right?  They offer solid, hard, tangible evidence of the mindless stupidity that can come from very big organizations and government agencies.

Every day, one needs to spend some time remembering this critical, key fact.  It defines our social and political world more than anything else does.

Money is the curious and questionable thing.  The paper notes are basically worthless paper - but the legal, social and economic infrastructure that stands behind the printed cash currency - the "bank notes" - is what you are supposedly holding, when you hold the paper cash.  Lots and lots and lots of paper cash, becomes completely worthless.  Governments rise and fall like toilet-seats on a train.

Bitcoin might be worthless. But in a world where Governments are *actively* cheating and misleading their citizens, the NGO-nature of Bitcoin, makes it unique and interesting.  We do not own *any* crypto-currency.  (I am very sympathetic to Mr. Dimon's viewpoint.  I think he is mostly right.)   But  I have seen *way* too much weirdness now, to believe in really anything at all, unless I have tested it myself, and done the background research.   Science is all we have, really.  And even it is getting goofy and political, as people everywhere get more goofy and "office-politics" political every day.   (The internet is turning the whole world into "Dunder Mifflin".)

Mr. Dimon also warns that "inflation might go higher than people think".   No shit!

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jp-morgan-chases-dimon-inflation-might-go-higher-than-people-think-144719511.html

I am worried about inflation, since I have seen it up close, and personal.  It wipes out economic growth, and destroys the system operation of the price-level as an information-transfer mechanism to alter human behaviour.  Drop this disruption into our hyper-connected world today, and we get some very serious problems, since no-one keeps buffer-stocks anymore.  

And the complete idiocy that is going on in USA - the "Washington Follies" - is already a perfect pre-condition for some really crazy bad-stupid economic policy.   Folks; if they read detailed history documents of hyper-inflation scenarios (there are quite a few to be found!) will learn that inflation comes from very bad "government" policy - basically idiot governments (ie. Kings and their minions)  borrowing insane amounts of money to do stuff (fight wars, usually), which they cannot pay back.

The entire "John Law MIssissippi Scheme" in France, under very young King Louis is an example of the first big use of paper bank notes.  It ended very badly (for late-stage investors), but worked very, very well, for the completely corrupt French Government, since it allowed the massive debt to be mostly extinguished.   Early investors did ok also, if they got out of the game early, and dropped their gains into real-estate holdings and other physical assets.   That great inflation was where the world "millionaire" was first invented.  

We agree with Mr. Dimon.  We believe inflation will run fast and run hard. Why?  Ask the Wizard:  He would say: "Because it aleady *IS*, you ignorant burpfart!"  (The Wizard is a rude boy..) 

I bought a little red plastic container full of petrol yesterday - for one of the tractors.  The price was $1.44 per **litre**.   Gasoline is up about 25% so far, this year.  And there is no "supply constraint".   The price is just up.

We cannot operate a farm without petrol.   We don't have the equipment, or the lab or the various raw inputs to create synthetic fuel.  But maybe we need to work on that.   Suddenly, Prince Charles and his Aston-Martin that runs on alcohol derived from white-wine production, and cheese making, does not look so silly.   Bio-diesel is also interesting.

Most economists and government people are so stupidly unaware of how the "self-financing" sector operates, exists and generates the wealth of a nation, that it is comic-book hilarious.    Government people get these "salaries", which flow automatically into their bank accounts, whether the silly bastards show up for work or not.  It is just comical - absolutely mind-blowing, really.   In the self-financing world, we have to actually DO something - invest-and-take-real-risks, or produce a product or a service, and convince people to acquire it - and part with their cash.   It's a tough, high-risk life.  And if we are successful, we face a *rising* rate of punishment, for our actions.  This is called: "Progressive Income Taxation", which is pure, economic insanity.  You punish the successful risk-takers, for doing work to make the nation rich.  This is the kind of "socialist" economic madness that destroys the future.  We are *not* complaining - this is just economic reality.

The operation of the self-financed-sector economic phenomenon is so completely outside the "ken" of a Government employee, that it is an interesting problem in social-science and psycho-semantics.  

Dimon is most certainly correct - the inflation is now here, and it is gonna move hard and fast and become dangerous, much more quickly than Government workers are able to understand. 

The reason for the rapid and surprising inflationary run, can be seen if one examines the global debt levels - both the growth rate AND the absolute level of the insane, completely-out-of-control numbers.    The coming inflation, will destroy money-value, but will also make it possible for governments to create the illusion that they are able to "pay down" the debt, as it matures.

So, once the "Economist" inside each of us,  understands what the hell is almost certain to happen  (there is really no fix possible here, that would not be even *worse*), then non-governmental status of "bogus" Bitcoin, suddenly looks a lot better.  Bitcoin is just a collective bank-account, not run by a bank or government.   So far, it seems to be working.  And that is interesting.

Bitcoin smells a little bit like gold, another useless, worthless "asset" that has had it's uses in history.  Gold is low-machine-value, soft dead metal that sits there, and does *nothing*.  No food is made, no cities built, no babies created or knowledge generated.  The yellow-metal does nothing, and yet that is it's great value - it does *not* change, in a world where everything else goes to hell, decays, dies, burns, gets destroyed, turns into radio-active dust, gets buried by ash, and so on.

Bitcoin is worthless, gold is a stupid dead asset, and humans die and decay and even their bones will rot into dust.  And there is no "god" thing, except inside human imaginations.   This is the harsh truth.

But the "investment" problem still remains, as long as we are alive.    And we have noticed that asset valuation and pricing is more like a Cheech Wizard cartoon, than it is a rational process.   And making money - in this modern world especially - is often completely divorced from anything real.   The fact that NFT's can actually be sold, is an interesting example of this assertion.

World is insane now, but we still gots to pay da bills...   And dat means da investments gotta yield and generate da numbers.   Inflation's gonna make dat look real big and wild - for a while...  at least dat's what da Wizard said...    :)

[ Oct. 12, 2021 ] - Big Radio - About 4 degrees off from Galactic central point, within the galactic plane, there is this occasional radio burst at 888 mhz, with circular polarization, which has been detected by a very large radio-telescope in Australia.   The source switches on, runs for a while, and then turns off quickly - within a day.  There is nothing to be seen anywhere else on the spectrum - from infra-red, thru optical, up to x-rays.  No existing astrophysical theory describes a natural source of this nature.  The researcher who discovered it has Chinese name: Ziteng Wang - but he goes also by the name: "Andy".   This unique radio-source, is nicknamed: "Andy's Object".  They confirmed it's sproadic "on-for-a-while, then-off" nature using the MeerKat radio Telescope in South Africa.  (There are about twenty or so "Authors" to the paper!)

Everyone involved finally got a detailed journal article published, in Astrophysical Journal, which is dated today.   Full article is behind a paywall, so we cannot read it yet.  [ Update!  - Ycombinator had a "I am not asking..." note, with a link!   We like ArXiv.]

https://arxiv.org/pdf/2109.00652.pdf

Will review it tonite.   We are curious if there is any possibility of any sort of modulation to the transmission, in any sort of manner.  At galactic centre, stars and systems are closer together.   Star systems that are only several light years apart, and with intelligent life, might have developed very high-energy communication technology, which perhaps we are detecting.  This is a *very* unlikely scenario, but a massive "radio-source-only" object which appears, then switches off for a while, then turns back on - and yet emits nothing else in any other part of the electromagnetic spectrum, sure looks curious, and does *not* correspond to any kind of star.  

And also not  even to a tidal-disruption event (a black hole "eating" a star - lots of radiation spew given off as the star is torn apart, and sucked into the Black-hole event-horizon..), since detectable energy on other energy spectrum frequencies would be apparent.

Here is link to article abstract:  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/1538-4357/ac2360

And is the full article, as a PDF, from ArXiv:  https://arxiv.org/pdf/2109.00652.pdf

Note the Figure-1, with the six computer-generated images from Australian array and from MeerKAT, which shows the on-off images  (The little dark black dot is the radio source.).  Both the very-large Austrailan radio-telescope, and the South African "MeerKAT" radio-telescope confirm the existence and location of this bright radio source.  The circular polarization suggests the possibility of a magnetar or some kind of star or pulsar, yet there is *only* radio transmission (and big radio transmission!), no visible-light action evident at all.  And also no X-ray or hgher-energy wave-particle action can be detected.   This is very unusual and interesting.

I can't help but remember the SETI (Search for Extra-Terrestrial Intelligence)  research, which never really found very much.   If someone is trying to communicate across stellar distances, the lightspeed transmission of UHF-level radio signals, would seem the obvious choice.  And the most basic form of communication is simply switching a beam on and off - like one will signal a position by turning on and off a flashlight at night, or like Native Americans used "smoke signals". 

We should call this the "Ziteng-Wang Transmitter".  It most probably has a natural explanation.  But it just reminds me of a kid on one side of a big lake, playing with a flashlight, and trying to get the attention of some kids on the other side of the lake, by toggling the beam off and on.  :)

[ Oct. 7/8/9 - 2021 ] - Technology of Dreams - I woke up thinking about my comment "32-bit addressability ought to be enough for anyone!" and of course, I forgot about the use-case of the quadrillion-byte perceptron - a thing I have been trying to model on a very small scale.   There is a real problem trying to model a good trader.  A profitable trader draws on terabytes times terabytes of data - in some kind of massive vector-matrix (ie. tensor) data-array of semi-organized information - and it might be useful to model this entire glopplex in real-time, using electronic storage.  The 64-bit machine architecture gives a possible 18 quintillion memory locations, and crazy-massive large dataset representations might actually be needed.   At night, I have these vivid, complex and extreme-detail dreams - entirely synthetic reality, which our research suggests is the result of routine system-state resetting action, that a super-monster neural-network has to do, in order to retain it's ability to encode new information.

You either dream very big, or you literally "lose your mind".   A human neural-net requires nightly re-balancing of neuron state levels, else it soon fails - and begins to dump halucinations right into the visual cortex, and the human subject is unable to determine differences between actual true sensory data, and self-generated neural-cyclic state-change data.   I've always had serious insomnia, and if I simply dialed back sleep-hours, and went a few days with no sleep at all, I get into real difficulty.   I recall trying to drive up north after a couple of days work, which had included "all-nighters" also, and the late evening+nighttime drive was populated by all sorts of creatures appearing to rush into my field of view.  I literally saw animals that were not there, little yellow men in funny outfits running along beside the car, and rushing out it front of it, and so on.  I started to have real, hard-core halucinations.   Do not drive a car at night, if sleep deprived for several days.  You will see stuff.  I also realized I had driven for several minutes - many miles! - completely asleep.  

I also realized that to actually model a "dream" - the human brain is able to synthetically create an entire reality - complete with full-colour images and all related sensory data.  Ever since my Covid-19 vaccinations in the summer, I have been experiencing curiously vivid dreams.  Perhaps I am just remembering them more easily?  

But I realize, that to attempt to include this self-generated data, along with external datasets, one would write a very complex data-input and encoding program, which would then require recursion - you would need to record all sensory input PLUS forward and backward propagate the massive data-arrays - and do so in a recursive manner - just to model the human dream-state.   You get the Towers of Hanoi problem where each "Tower" is a *changing* multi-terabyte dataset.   And you need to include that damn dream-state - because sometimes a person goes to sleep, thinking about a problem, and seems to to wake up with a solution - or an idea-test that leads to a solution.   (Specific documented examples of this phenomenon are all thru science - the Canadian doctor who discovered insulin (Dr. Banting) had this experience, and documented it - he literally woke up from a dream, and wrote down an experimental idea, that led to the successful discovery of the bio-compound that could treat diabetes successfully).

There are also these examples where traders who have large positions on, will have solution-generating dreams.  Again, any attempt model this activity requires encoding not just the original sensory input states - but also the dream-state action, doubtless produced by the neuron state-level resetting action that dream-activity seems to be related to.   But to recursively process the entire sensory data inputs for the day, and to then somehow back-propagate that state to the existing neural-net state, would be a memory-intensive process of significant scale.  Having 18 quintillion bytes might be necessary, if your various sensory-state datasets are made up of quadrillion-byte arrays!

So, maybe 64-bit architecture might be both necessary and crazy-useful.

It might actually turn out that 32-bit memory architectures - with only 4-billion active memory locations - might someday soon look as seriously restricted, as the early 16-bit (64K memory locations) architectures looked to "mainframe" programmers, who expected to have many millions of bytes of memory, to mess about with their big vectors and matrixes.

Just because you have recorded all the market data - this may be wildly inadequate.  You may need to "dream" about all it's possible evolutionary paths  (ie. all prices going in all directions).  That makes a crazy-large data-array.  But then, you are not done.  You also need to "dream propagate" many copies of this massive state-data-set many times through a recursive process, so that insane amounts of data are generated.

And to do all this in memory, will require that 64-bit addressability.  So, maybe 64-bit architecture is not really a scam - it might be a necessary pre-condition to actually moving the AI-needle.   And I have to stand-down from my previous assertion that 32-bit really ought to be enough active memory.     :)

[ Oct. 6, 2021 ] - Built "Audacity" on Redhat/Linux Machine. - We do a lot of history research, since reading history is like getting the copy of the exam to study, before you go in and write it.  It confers advantage! :)   So, I was pleased to discover a little treasure-trove of NASA recordings of the Apollo missions - except many are *backwards* - basically an audio tape machine was run bi-directionally, but some sort of automatic digitization process was done, to create the .WAV and .MP3 files - except half the tape-tracks are backwards.  ("I buried Paul...arrrrgh."   Not.).

I wanted to hear the last two hour tape, of the last Apollo mission, Apollo-17,since it was just a textbook perfect mission.  And it was the last interplanetary manned space-flight mission.  The last tape of the last two hours was one of the reversed (backwards) recordings.  I spent roughly 40 hours pulling together and configuring a ton of software source - including wxWidgets - a C++ cross-platform development tool, that allow big C++ applications to be deployed to multiple platforms - uses all the internals of Tcl/Tk, but all wrapped inside C-libraries.  I had to upgrade gcc from 4.3 to 4.8.5 on my fastest ACER Linux laptop, and download and install and configure a bunch of different sub-dependencies (libsndfile ver. 1.0.28  and other stuff, like "libsamplerate", also known as the "Secret Rabbit Code"  (I am dead serious here.)  Even read a Korean review about which code set to use - "libsamplerate" is considered gold-standard.  Google "Secret Rabbit Code" for details).  

I built gcc (which has gcc, g++, gFortran, the math libraries, and other stuff..) from source, using gcc 4.3 to build gcc 4.8.5.  It eventually worked.   I tried two different versions of wxWidgets (2.8.11 and 2.8.12) - built both successfully, both worked, then I got a test program, hacked it to display a .bmp file, throw text on the screen, and pop-up a window that said "Hello, World!".  That was crazy amount of work. Got it working.   The wxWidgets test program is critical, as it tell you that the wxWidgets code and libraries are installed correctly and can be successfully used.  I had to put a "soft link" in the /usr/local/include directory, so the include header files (the .h source) could be found.  (Fedora and other Linux distros put user built system programs in /usr/local/lib, and reserve /usr/lib directory for operating system libraries and includes. THis is critical, since the libs are dynamic (.so files, where bits and pieces of code needed by new programs are loaded in, as the new programs are *run*, not when they are *built*.)

To make wxWidgets build, and so that other programs can find it's libraries, you need to set the environmental variables PKG_CONFIG_PATH and LD_LIBRARY_PATH as follows:

             export PKG_CONFIG_PATH=/usr/local/lib/pkgconfig

             export LD_LIBRARY_PATH=/usr/local/lib

Once you build wxWidgets, you see it is the thing that lets g++ programs paint all the screens on a Linux  X-Windows display, using Gtk2+  (not Gtk3).    You have (and need!)  wx-config, which you run (inside the compile line, for a C++ program built using wxWidgets), so you get the list of libs and CXXFLAGS you need for the compile to work.  Seriously.   My test program for wxWidgets (stolen off the web from Ted Burke, and hacked to display my own bit-map images) is compiled like this:  

            g++ mcltest.cpp -o mcltest `wx-config --cxxflags` `wx-config --libs`

but it worked - in both wxWidgets 2.8.11 and 2.8.12 versions.  That by itself was crazy cool.   If you can get wxWidgets to work, you can write one C++ (or g++ if using the GNU compiler suite), and you can deploy your built windowy code-ball-of-mud  (your  application), to any box, running WIndows, MacOS or Linux (assuming Gtk2 is available).  

Redhat/Fedora (CentOS) LInux, uses GNOME and GTK2 (or GTK3, the new stupid one, with features that breaks stuff), so the hardest was this Linux code-ball that I began with.  But it is all open-source, and I won't use non-open-source code, because that always gets WRECKED BY DESIGN all the time, so you end up having to purchase it over and over, and then it still gets  borked with each new version, so you need to buy new hardware also.  Nasty.  And not necessary, since the 32-bit hardware is crazy powerful and works fine.

Then, I download three different source-suites of Audacity: ver. 2.0.0, ver. 2.0.6 and ver. 2.3.0.  Code suites past 2.3.0 require gcc 4.9.0 (a big build), and below 2.0.0 is not well documented and not supported in any way.   I worked on 2.0.0 and 2.0.6.  Version 2.0.6 would (eventually) compile successfully (after a long compile), but would always (always!) fail on the Link-edit step (the big step, where the modules are linked together into a single program, and all external and internal routines are made so they can "see" each other).  This is a critical step, of course.

To build Audacity 2.0.0 on a 32-bit Linux box (uname -a reports my Linux kernel version as : 2.6.25-14 ), you use the standard:  ./configure, make, make install sequence.   I used the following options for Audacity 2.0.0 :

      ./configure --disable-dynamic-loading --disable-unicode --with-libsamplerate --with-libsndfile -with-lib-preference="local system"  --without-ffmpeg

Note; I actually built ffmpeg from source, and tested it - but it does not work with "PulseAudio", the "sound-server" on my version of Redhat/Fedora Linux.  Many Linux versions let the user code directly access the sound-board or the /dev/dsp device that controls "digital sound processing", but this is huge security issue, since many simple tricks can be used to hijack your machine.  Pulseaudio is annoying, but it allows the /dev/dsp device to be protected programmatically, and still work.

Once I got a clean build of Audacity 2.0.0, I had to shutdown and re-start the Pulseaudio sound server (and restart using the ./runpulseaudio startup script).    But then, Audacity could "see" the sound device.  I was then able to load the 200 megabyte backwards Apollo17 .mp3 sound-file I had downloaded, reverse it (which took several minutes on a fast machine!)  and save the FIXED file as a repaired .MP3, using theAudacity "Export" option.   I then uploaded the file, to the Internet Archive website.

This was the hardest "build-from-source" open-source software build I have ever done, and yet reached a successful, working product conclusion.   I even built a more-recent version of ffmpeg from source, during this effort.   

Note:  The technology industry has rather become a bit of a scam now, with the major entities running things, so that you get toasted regularly, and have to reach for your VISA card, to make anything useful happen now. (Duh... Nothing is free, of course.  But closed-source code is a huge and ugly risk, for so many reasons.)

The good software is developed in the Open-Source model, just like the good science is done. 

Code and theories must have detailed, public scrutiny.  This must happen, and is good, because without it, you get just BAD SOFTWARE and BAD SCIENCE  which will be designed to meet political (dishonest) objectives, expire, break, have drivers fail, and will contain time-bombs, ad-ware, secret spy code, etc.   If code is not open-source, and has not been vetted by cranky kids and old bastards like me, then it WILL CERTAINLY CONTAIN TOXIC SHIT.   This  is the way of the world.  Accept it.

So, we need open-source.  It's like God - we had to invent it, and the result is good.

Anyway, once I got wxWidgets working (a huge project in itself), I could get Audacity 2.0.0 and 2.0.6 to compile - but not to LINK.   I had to really dig.    I would get all this "unresolved external references" error spew, every single attempt - even after ALL the problems that prevented compilation, were fixed.

This resulted - I think - from the "UNICODE" nonsense.  Unicode is a stupid idea, which requires the use of two bytes so glyphs and annoying, localize pictogram language characters can be used like we use English letters.  We all like pictures - but creating a byte-representation for every stupid language-picture ever invented is just stupid.  Languages like Egyptian hireoglyphics, Mayan glyphs, Chinese characters - have all these are silly, crazy-inefficient language constructs.  But using Unicode (two bytes to store language symbols) has really damaged a lot of good design efforts.  Folks really should learn English to use computers.   Unicode is just silly. But such is life.   

[Oct. 7-8, 2021 Update: I was actually able to get Audacity 2.0.6 to compile on my custom Fedora Linux version, and run successfully, IFF, (if and only if) the "--enable-unicode" option was enabled for both Audacity and wxWidgets compilation.  The LINK errors were all "unresolved references" to "wxString" stuff, which looks like the voodoo required to use Unicode version of wxWidget  (note: We must use wxGTK-2.8.12 flavour of wxWidgets if linking to Audacity.  The wxX11 version of wxWidgets will not work at all with Audacity.)   All wxGTK variables of "constant char[n]*" types (pointers to strings of chars) have to be replaced with object-oriented class-label weirdness, which I think defines multi-byte unicodey stuff, so you get this error-spew, where every unresolved external is a "wxString::" thing, if you try to build Audacity 2.0.6 without using unicode and also turning it on for wxWidgets.  (Note:  I am *not* a C++ programmer.)   The Audacity failure-to-link resulted from a mis-match of builds - wxWidgets and Audacity have to both be compiled with ./configure options "--disable-unicode" or with "--enable-unicode".  Either one will work for the canonical (baseline) Audacity 2.0.0 (the full-source version), but for Audacity 2.0.6 you have to use unicode, it looks like.  But, if you "--enable-unicode" for wxWidgets, then a lot of C++ code (like my little wxWidget test program!) will just error-spew, without any indication what is happening, or how to fix it.   Pretty comical...   Hope my note here helps some kid trying to learn this stuff. ]

[ C code is basically cheap-shit trans-architecture assembler in disguise, and C++ is a dogs-breakfast of absurd complexity, but useful if you are building GUI apps, where everything is hot-active, nothing is modal, and everything is interrupt triggered.  Great fun, but certain to lock-up and fail, at some point...  It's also a "Full Employment Act" for clever programmers, so, enjoy, and rock-on!   Just don't crash that 200mph sports-car, when you finally buy it!   :)  ]

The compiles could handle 64-bit (since LONGLONG is a number type, and extra-precision math has been around for a long time.  Even the Assembler on the first IBM P/C (a 16-bit machine), could define an 80-bit data item, for extended precision math requirements. 

But any attempt to use *Unicode* in the LINK step, seemed to cause Audacity to fail on my LINUX development laptop.  (The laptop is a powerful, 32-bit dual-core Intel CPU with MMX.  The slow and rather stupid thing, is me, the operator!).  I really wanted Audacity to work on the Linux Laptop.   After much trial-and-error and configuration, I got Audacity 2.0.0 to not only compile - but finally to LINK successfully.    (Hint: I configured ver. 2.0.0  Audacity and wxWidgets with unicode disabled.)   I was astonished and delighted.  (Note: Start with Audacity full-source 2.0.0, since it has the sound-codec libraries you will need.  (Ahem.. cough, cough.. mp3 ...cough.. snort ... licence issues ... brrrapp..))

I had carefully checked all the 32-bit and 64-bit nonsense.  The ACER laptop I used is a powerful 32-bit machine, able to render 4K videos. CPUs of 32-bit are MASSIVE FAST ENOUGH and CAN HAVE ENOUGH MEMORY to do almost anything.  The whole 64-bit thing is really a bit of a scam also.  32-bits gives you 4 billion bytes of accessable dynamic storage locations in memory (RAM). If you can't do it in 4 billions bytes, then you really should re-think your design.  I am very serious.   [The exception here, is AI stuff.  If you are modelling the neurons in a human brain, it might be useful to have trillions or quadrillions of bytes of electronic memory.  A giant neural-net, with "many-hot" vector-encoding of large-data-quanta sets, is the use-case for 64-bit addressability, where you might actually make use of those 2^64 memory locations.  ]

(For Non-computery Folks)  The math:  32 bits of 1 and zero digits => 2 ^ 32 = 4,294,967,296 possible memory addresses.   Eight and sixteen bits for the computer address location you want is not enough.  2^16 = 65,536, which is the old, original 8088 or Z80 memory limit standard of 64K memory locations.  We build Z-80 single-board-computers (SBC's) which only have 64K of memory, where EVERYTHING has to fit.  We can do real work on these SBCs, and even put a BASIC interpreter in the memory, and a super-tiny Monitor program!  They are wonderful devices.

The Apollo space-ships flew to the Moon and back, using hardy little 4, 8 and 16-bit computers. Those small computers did not get hurt by high levels of radiation.  They were stable, and are as reliable as a well-made sword.  They can run for a long time, before their silicon decays - maybe decades or centuries or longer.

Once I had Audacity working (with some of the codecs for .MP3 and .WAV and such), I was able to download and repair the two-hour audio track for the last tape from the last manned space-flight mission to another world.  That mission ended on December 19, 1972.  I was quite young, and it was a wonderful time.   And then, a fews years later, an awful time, with the oil-shock, mass unemployment, the DJIA at 700 (falling to 600's), and runaway inflation of 10, 12 to 20% per year and 11, 12 percent and higher, interest rates (which wiped out a lot of over-leveraged small businesses - and some large ones, too.    The USA gave up on space-exploration, and everything fell apart pretty quickly. 

But I was young, and it was a wild and fun ride in the mid and late 1970's.   Ron and Margaret came along, Russia gave up being evil and stupid and being run by Communist gangsters, and the world blossomed like a big Heroin-Poppy.   By 1989, the Berlin Wall was smashed to bits by good Germans, Intel was making fully 32-bit CPU's, and everything became possible.   History helped us see the future.  It is good to know.

So, here is the Apollo-17 final audio recording, of the re-entry, splashdown and recovery.  And the astronauts final comments.   It is worth listening to.  I used Audacity to reverse (and thus repair!) the two-hour audio recording, and then uploaded the FIXED .MP3 file, up to an Internet Archive site for storage and public viewing.  URL is below:

https://archive.org/details/apollo-17-last-tape-830-aaa-fixed 

Search for Apollo-17 and read just how well that whole mission went.  It gives a textbook lesson on how to do a very, very big project, and bring it to successful conclusion.

[ Oct. 4, 2021 ] - Roundabout Dogs of Sweden - and Europe. - In Sweden, back in 2006, a charming artistic tradition of putting sculptures of dogs in traffic roundabouts developed.   No one knows who started the tradition.  You can Duckduckgo or Google search for "roundabout dogs", select "images" and see lots of examples.   

Dogs are loved by the Swedes and all civilized people of the world, for their loyalty, intelligence and friendship.    We read that Lars Vilks was killed in a car crash yesterday. He became famous for a comical drawing of a "Roundabout Dog", back in 2007.

Europeans, and those in Western cultural all around the world, have a long tradition of displaying themselves and others as Dogs.   Dogs are fine, good and special creatures in Western culture, and have been the respected and valued companions of Kings, Noblemen and the Common People, for thousands of years, in the civilized nations of Europe.   Each major civil culture of Europe, tended to have a "National Dog" as a representation of its national character. 

The amusing "Hark, Hark - the Dogs Do Bark" map of 1914 Europe shows and example of this comical (yet very real) tradition.   From the plays of the Romans and the Greeks, we know just what serious business "Comedy" was.   I've read Aristophanes - he wrote "The Birds" and "The Frogs" - but I do not know of the "The Dogs"...  Perhaps it was lost to history.   

Actually, I "googled" for it, and found a partial manuscript, transcribed into a .PDF.  Great men think alike?  OR perhaps: Fools Seldom Differ?...   https://www.mcgoodwin.net/pages/thedogs.pdf    I happen to believe that the saddest, most touching scene in all of Human Literature - is the scene where Odysseus is recognized by his old dog, Argos, who has waited 20 years for his return to Ithica.  Argos nuzzles his old master, the King, wags his tail, and dies. 

A poor boy loves his dog - and so does a noble and righteous King.  Dogs are sentient, thinking creatures, capable of learning language, and of exercising wise judgement.  They can also be wild and bad, just as humans can.    Any culture that disrespects dogs, and believes dogs are "unclean", is itself unclean, unworthy, grotesque in it's extreme, horrific ugliness, and cannot be considered "civilized".  All honest humans know the absolute, certain truth of this.  

Athens was eventually starved and crushed by the militaristic Spartans.  The Athenians focused on science and philosophy and mathematics and commerce and learning all they could about everything, while the Spartans focused *only* on War, and war-fighting,    It is no surprise that Athens was defeated by Sparta.  It was a significant, tragic event of Western culture - reversed hundreds of years later by the Romans - who wisely focused great efforts on their army, it's structure, funding and organization, along with military success and conquest - so they could be free to be Romans.   The Roman approach to other nations was the correct one - they could either be at peace with Rome, be invaded by Rome, and run by Roman Governors, or be crushed and destroyed (as Carthage was, eventually).  This Roman Republican model is the only one that works right.  England copied the Imperial version of it, and the Americans, the original Republican version. 

It was Shakespeare who wrote: "Cry Havoc!  And let slip the Dogs of War!"  It's from the play "Julius Caesar".  It might be the best writing ever done, in the English language.  Here it is:

‘Cry Havoc’ speech, spoken by Marc Antony, over Caesar's murdered corpse:  Act 3 Scene 1

O, pardon me, thou bleeding piece of earth,
That I am meek and gentle with these butchers!
Thou art the ruins of the noblest man
That ever livèd in the tide of times.
Woe to the hand that shed this costly blood!
Over thy wounds now do I prophesy—
Which, like dumb mouths, do ope their ruby lips
To beg the voice and utterance of my tongue—
A curse shall light upon the limbs of men.
Domestic fury and fierce civil strife
Shall cumber all the parts of Italy.
Blood and destruction shall be so in use,
And dreadful objects so familiar,
That mothers shall but smile when they behold
Their infants quartered with the hands of war,
All pity choked with custom of fell deeds,
And Caesar’s spirit, ranging for revenge,
With Ate by his side come hot from hell,
Shall in these confines with a monarch’s voice
Cry “Havoc!” and let slip the dogs of war,
That this foul deed shall smell above the earth
With carrion men, groaning for burial.

----

"Ate" (pronouced "Ah-tey") is the pre-Christian image of the God of Hell.  Shakespeare put a hell of a good speech into Marc Anthony's mouth.  The images are strong and cruel - blood and destruction shall be so much in use, dreadful objects so familiar (heads on pikes, weapons of war, blood running everywhere...)  mothers will smile to see their children "quartered" (cut into 4 pieces!) in battle, since that will mean an end to their pain and suffering - like the final scene in John Huston's "High Sierra", where "Roy" is killed by the sniper, and his lover realizes he has finally "crashed out" and is now free.

Lars Vilks "crashed out".   Now, he lives only in our hearts and minds - in our memories.  He is just another dead artist, known for charming images and clever installations made of driftwood.  He has "crashed out" - like we all will, eventually.  Like Europe is already now doing, and like America is seriously at risk of doing.   Our Western Cultural ideals are under direct threat.  And some of the most tangible and most serious threats to everything that we are, these are coming from right inside our own homelands.  

Shall we tolerate this?  At some point, we will remember what we are, what we stand for, what we believe is right and correct, and what we are willing to die for.

That visual image - "carrion men, groaning for burial" - that's quite well done.  Carrion is dead, rotting flesh.  It's what vultures eat - and we are to imagine the fields of carrion-men, groaning for burial.  I've seen the images of this, in the Japanese clean-up after the atomic-bombing of Hiroshima.  They had these very large wagons - literally stacked high with rotting corpses - they piled them into fields - hundreds, perhaps thousands of rotting, half-burned radioactive corpses, and you could easily imagine them, "groaning for burial", in Shakespeare's genius words.

If we are to defend our culture, and the traditions of freedom of the Western world, Shakespeare tells us we *must* embrace this kind of reality, at times when terrible crimes are visited upon our good and noble people.   Not in hot anger - but in quiet, careful-speaking, focused determination.   

In Marc Anthony's words, we must vanquish our enemies, so they become: "carrion men, groaning for burial".

[ Oct. 3, 2021 ] - Respect the Wild Rat - the Wild Rat of Randomness.  Don't be fooled by it, but do not fear it either.   The Wild Rat of Randomness, can lead you to the Treasury - sometimes.   Other times, he just tries to bite you.  Respect the Wild Rat, and you can live long, and prosper.   :)

[ Oct. 2, 2021 ] - Doing it RIGHT. - To do big, expensive, complex projects, and take them from the idea-stage, thru the conceptual and then detailed design phase, the production phase, and into implementation, and then on to successful completion, is very difficult.   Most big technical projects flirt with disaster and often end in tragic failure.  

But some do not.  The 20th century showed two projects that worked - both run mostly by Americans: World War Two, and the Apollo Moon-Landing missions.  Successful projects should be examined carefully - especially the Apollo Moon missions.    Back in 2019, a good documentary film was made about the Apollo 11 mission, and the first Moon Landing, in July of 1969.   The whole Apollo program, and the Gemini program before it, were astonishingly successful examples of what is possible - from both an organizational and a technological perspective.  Here is the URL for the film - HIGHLY RECOMMENDED!

https://archive.org/details/aploii-2019

Realize - this was Apollo *ELEVEN*.  There were TEN previous missions!   NASA had learned to TEST AND CHECK - over and over, again and again.   This was a very large part of why they were able to be so successful. 

People forget Apollo 10, the mission where the American astronauts flew their ship right up to the Moon, launched a LEM (Lunar excursion Module), and flew it near the surface, but did not land it, and then returned from very low lunar orbit, docked with the Command module ship, and returned to Earth.  That was a VERY IMPORTANT MISSION - now almost lost to history.  But  I recall that mission, as I followed it very carefully, and was so surprised they did not actually do the Moon landing.   Apollo 10 was fully set up to do this - but NASA wisely wanted to fully (and I mean *FULLY*!) test all their newly-designed and built technology.  

Most complex, expensive, technology projects fail.   Few people really understand just how common this is.   This is because of a phenomenon called "survivorship bias" - we only see, when we look back in history, the successful projects.   We don't go check the graveyard.

But the graveyard, is where most big plans and big projects go.  And they end up there, without first passing thru the end-stage of *successful completion*.  

NASA had learned - from repeated, early and awful failures - how to do big, dangerous, complex work, without having the rockets blow up.

We also should remember Dr. Wernher Von Braun.   He was  a product of German National Socialist Worker's Party (NSDAP) efforts to build military rockets to be used as weapons.  The German V2 rocket was also the successful result of repeated design and testing efforts - and it worked well - despite it's limited military usefulness to the German war effort in World War Two.    It was Dr. Von Braun, who was most directly responsible for the successful design and development of the Saturn Five interplanetary rocket.     The wikipedia article has lots of material about his work for the German Nazi's, and also detailes his arrest and imprisonment - but also his release, and Hitler's order that he be "protected from prosecution, as long as he remains indispensible to the project work".  Von Braun was born in Poland, which few people realize. 

Two scientific giants stand out in the 20th century - Albert Einstein and Wernher Von Braun.  They both were products of Germany, but found their greatest success in America. The Europeans might want to learn from this, as should the rest of the world.   It is not that America offers sanctuary.  It does not.  America offers freedom and opportunity.  America offers possibility.  This is why the current political climate in America, of "the Woke Stupid" is so dangerous and lethal to the world, as it puts at risk the very future of mankind.

People - especially smart, talented, ambitious people - need somewhere they can go, to do the things they know need to be done.  They need a place where they can speak freely, do profitable business openly and easily, and operate without being held down and back by neo-fascist political fraudsters, the absurd lies of religion and political doctrine, and the abusive stupidity and deep-dishonesty of "political correctness".  

America is that place.  

The most successful political projects are Republics.   And the American Republic is the most successful of all of these.  It is more important to the future of the World, than all of Africa and most of Asia.   The abusive, original aboriginal inhabitants - the "Indians" of North America - are interesting for social scientists and anthropologists to examine and study, but they are simply not important, in the way that the American Repubic is important. The "Black Lives Matter" people - both the racists and the race-apologists - are not important.  These groups are just more of the same, political-cultural cruelty and social-pollution that has characterized most of all human history and human social grouping.   Very few individual people matter at all.   But a very few, matter a lot.

And the American Republic - with it's hard-fought tradition of free-speech, and freedom from religious bigotry and political-abuse and cultural pollution - this entity really *does* matter, as it has been able to create *major* success, despite it's flaws and problems.

It needs to be nurtured and protected from it's enemies - both from without - and most especially, from within.  I personally believe the January 6th protests in Washington were valuable and helpful.  Political people need to understand, that they should not try to rig and fake-up the results of democratic elections - and there were just too many clear signals that the effort to remove Donald Trump - regardless of what you think of him - was an engineered effort, in which significant (and deeply unwise) changes were made to the American election processes.

The astonishing dishonesty and failures of the "Democrats" (who are most certainly *not* supporters of honest democratic process), shows the necessity and validity of direct citizen efforts to correct political abuse by corrupt government "officials".    Sometimes, the people "MUST" take action, to protect a viable "Republic", else one ends up with an "Imperial" class of professional, *hereditary* political fraudsters and gangsters, in control of the State.  History shows us again and again how bad this is.

Nobody wants hereditary, political *aristocrats* ruling them.  And America REALLY does not want this.   When this prospect becomes entrenched, then it cannot be fixed by *politics*, because the political model itself has been corrupted and rigged, so that no change can be possible within the rigged system.  "Protestants" have to happen, and then the really bad historical stuff begins another cycle of violence & horror. 

The American project broke this old, bad, European model.   That is the primary reason why America can do BIG projects - and get them done successfully.   America lets *mavericks* become leaders, and allows them to be put in charge of BIG projects.   Really (and as China shows right now, sadly), truly, no other nation allows this, in the honest way that America allows this.

This is true.   Americans are free.   We need to all make sure they *remain* free, if we want the world to have a future that is not mass-slavery and political fraudsterism.  Sometimes, America looks *insane* - but here is a really interesting take on this - the article is quite an eye-opener:  (I am gobsmacked, since I find myself agreeing with a Jewish Rabbi!)

 https://m.jpost.com/opinion/the-us-is-insane-and-i-wouldnt-have-it-any-other-way-opinion-650036

We need to maintain America, and American freedom.   And we need to study success carefully, if we wish to repeat it.  And we should also examine the (truly *LARGE*!) project graveyards, so we can understand of how very difficult it is to do big, important, technologically sophisticated projects successfully.  

Sure, we need the freedom-to-fail.  But we also need the freedom-to-succeed.

[ Oct. 1, 2021 ] - Are You an Accelerationist? - We think of ourselves more as simple Analysts - with a some sub-projects that lead us to view ourselves as Conservators and Archivists.    The requirements of business means that we have wear many hats - and invert more than just a few matrices.  Different methods are yielding different results.  Our ability to predict near-future events is working less well, so this leads us to believe a major set of parameters are changing - and not just interest rate expectations.  There is more happening.  People are getting unusually stupid, almost everywhere, it seems.  Real knowledge is being lost, and this seems to be happening at an alarming rate, which itself is also increasing.

There seems to be an accelerating increase in something we call the "Rise of the Woke Stupid" - a collection of badly-educated, semi-literate Youtube-children, whose knowledge of the world has been gained from bogus pseudo-schoolwork, video-gaming culture, and internet self-chat echo-rooms.  They are now the voters who determine what will happen in elections - and they truly have no clue about anything except yesterdays party.    They can't even reach the levels of '90's mirrorshade-wearing cyberpunks, and consider that "All Tomorrow's Parties" might matter also.   They see no future, except the bogus frauds that the sonic & video manipulators have recorded & painted for them.

It's fucking hilarious. 

It's like watching entire squadrons of slow-motion airplane crashes as they all hammer into the deck.  And yes, I even have a collection of videos like this, lifted from Youtube in the early days, before they censored all violent or "disturbing" content..  We are sad about this, but at some point, one just grows numb from watching idiots self-destruct into expanding debris fields.   We realize now that this phenomenon rather well explains what we are seeing in both North American and European politics.  The idiots in charge are the result of idiot voters who actively want to self-destruct their own cultural heritage. 

It's both tragic and hilarious - like watching ugly drunk women at a frat party try to hit on the good-looking guys who want nothing to do with them - until they too are also drunk and decide ugly is better than nothing.  One feels bad for the whole awful social model and the pain and sadness everyone is required to feel - but then, with a bit of alcohol for yourself as well, you can learn to just relax and enjoy the human comedy show.

Trouble is now - the shit-shows are in Ottawa and Washington, and the costs of the buffoonary, have an ugly tendency to show up as hard-core increases in one's property and income taxes.  Then, the comedy is not so funny, as you see it begin the process of making you bleed from many little financial cuts.   And that's just not much fun at all. 

The whole Covid-19 thing has been interesting - but it did not reach the results (as suggested by the Bland-Corporation study on expected "megadeaths")  we had initially envisioned.   Oh well.  Maybe next year?

What is such a curious collateral-damage effect, is the censorship clampdown on the internet.  The "chilling" of public debate is nasty.   So much is just gone now, or dark, or censored actively by AI daemons.

We find the search-engines do not work any more.  They give maybe 10 or 20 pages, of mostly bogus dreck, and then just stop.  I used to regularly jump 30 or 40 pages into a Google-search, to find the interesting stuff that was not Search-Engine Optimized.  But you simply cannot do anything like that anymore, unless you run your own web-crawler (and who the hell wants to do that?  It's like forensic archeology - you just have to shovel thru too much scat).   

So my various internet analytic tools no longer work.   The datafeeds are clogged with crap and dirt - like a fine fuel-injected engine, except someone has put diarrhoea in the gas tank.

Did you know that in roughly 25% of mild Covid-19 cases - the only medical symptom is mild diarrhoea?

https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200401/mild-covid-19-often-appears-with-only-gastro-symptoms-study#1 

This above study is from April 2020, and was done in China, so it has no information on the delta-variant of Covid-19, and it may not apply here.  But maybe it does.  Probably, lots of folks have had Covid-19, and not even realized they had it.  Except they can now spread it. 

Diarrhea (or diarrhoea) can kill very easily, as the fluid levels in the body, and the intestinal biotic flora are affected, and this can damage a healthy person very quickly, in some cases.   But so can a broken heart, if the lyrics of "Barbara Allen" can be believed...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F8Pg34c_v_I

(Dolly does a different, more traditional tune for this version.  We like it. )

We are really worried about the volatility-of-volatility we are seeing in the markets now.  We remain all-in, long-but-not-margined.  If I was a younger fellow, I would margin myself up to my nostrils and grit my teeth.  Seriously, this is a time-of-madness, and it is also the kind of environments where fortunes can be made ... and also lost.    But to be surf-boarded now in an economic AMF event, would ruin my health, and I might not recover.   We have to run oldfart portfolios, since they keep us in the clover, and let us play Red Rover - instead of *Dead* Rover.

Here is what I call the "Coronavirus Song", recorded in 2011, by Warren Zevon (who died of cancer after recording this.  We like this song, too. )

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ELe4vC3oM5E

(It's in the April 27, 2020 log-note... )

Critical Race-Car Theory Notes:  Just remember:  Do not Drink and Drive - even if you now have an automatic, and don't need to shift gears, or maybe you've got paddle-shifters.  You still need to turn and control the damn wheel, and that takes two hands - especially if you are going really fast, and using the other traffic as pylons.  :)

[ Sept. 30, 2021 ] - Cumulo-Granite - When flying on instruments, you don't want to try to fly thru this kind of cloud.   But our political leaders seem determined to track this path.  We have to remind ourselves, we have been hammered to bits more than once, and our world and our culture still survived.  Quebec city was founded in 1608, around the same time as Boston.  For almost 50 years, these two towns shared the North American landmass with a Mayan city in Lake Petan Itza, which was not destroyed by the Spanish Catholic maruaders until 1650. 

Would have been interesting flying over North America & Central America in the early 1600's.  It would have looked like part of Ringworld.   But not many GPS navigation aids.  You would have to do your "dead reckoning" carefully, or else become dead.

Are we tracking back to that kind of much simpler, less complicated world, with vastly fewer people in it?   Perhaps.

Fly carefully.

[ Sept. 29, 2021 ] - We Need to Change the Program - Biden could be impeached, if this is true:  Joe Biden was reportedly told - point blank - by his military advisors and top Generals, that a force of at least 2500 US troops should remain in Afghanistan.   Biden has *lied* directly to the American people, and said explicitly otherwise.   Biden appears to be truly bogus.   The man looks to be quite unfit.

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/09/28/top-generals-afghanistan-withdrawal-congress-hearing-514491

https://www.businessinsider.co.za/afghanistan-female-judges-hunted-by-male-prisoners-taliban-freed-2021-9

The insane withdrawal of the American forces from Afghanistan, will go down in history as one of the world's great crimes - not as bad as Hitler and Stalin's work - but certainly at the same level of State-sanctioned evil action.  The USA spent 20 years creating an almost-modern State in Afghanistan, and then simply buggered off and let the terrorists re-capture the place.  The local Afghan *army* was a proxy force, run by the Americans, so when the Americans made a deal with the Taliban, the local military people knew they had been betrayed, and that the Taliban had won.   What army would fight under such circumstances?   Biden looks like either a fool or a criminal, and the people who voted for "Democrat" politicians in the USA look to be guilty of a criminal conspiracy on a rather significant scale.

The American "Democrats" did not actually build gas-ovens and arrange for the mass-murder of Afghan police officers and judges - but they may as well have.   Turning Afghanistan over to the Taliban looks like a criminal act.  English common law is very clear on this.  If a person knowingly assists a group of people to commit multiple murders, then the person is - clearly - an accessory to the crime.    Biden is not only a liar.   By turning an entire nation over to a gang of murdering terrorists - after his military advisors advised him not to - he is now appears to be a war criminal.

Seems like that might be an impeachable offence.

But that Harris women is so questionable, that Biden will almost certainly keep his job.   We have a similar political disaster here in Canada, with Trudeau being re-elected, and a collection of people of questionable ability to choose for a Cabinet.   We are in for some very troublesome times, I fear.  Our "Deputy Prime Minister" is a woman we have no use for, so Trudeau looks to be safe in his job as well.    But we see real conflict coming in the future.  

The Germans are correct.  Stupidity is actually a powerful force, and it is ascendent now.

If the politics is ugly and awful, the economics is actually much worse:

The Founders of the United States wisely designed a mechanism to put an *upper-limit* on debt created by Government borrowing actions.  This was a clever and sensible action, as it was crafted because politicians are often idiots when it comes to money.   History shows this again and again.

Now, the USA is at risk of hitting it's $28.4 ***TRILLION*** Government debt limit, around Oct. 18th, less than a month away.   This is happening, of course, because no one seems to be able to stop the various automatic machines that "fund" the US Government actions.

The USA Government can simply vote to increase the debt-limit-level, but it has to actually do this, and there are various (many) good reason not to do this.  Basically, there is no mechanism - other than this hard number - that can stop the automatic, continous, increase in US Government spending, regardless of whatever the tax-revenues are.

It's bizzare and comically awful.   The current crop of fraudsters in the USA "Democrat" Administration simply cannot do anything except invent spending programs for non-productive, non-self-financing "social programs" and "climate change" projects.   They are gangsters who have their hands on the economic power controls, and all they can do is dial everything up to 11.   There is not even a pretence of economic discipline. 

It's a Washington "Spinal Tap" for America.   It's madness.  Prudence has left the building, along with her sister, Sanity.

Someday, this *will* destroy the American currency.   But not yet, since the USA dollar is the world's reserve currency.   The risk - of course - is that the economic collapse of America will not be local to America.  Precisely because the USA dollar is the world's reserve currency, the economic collapse of America will in fact be an economic collapse of the world economy.

This is why we write.

We see this process tracking - at increasing velocity - to an economic end-game of very extreme levels.  Probably a massive (and already evident) economic run-up, of a really extreme nature, followed by an equally extreme collapse event, that simply wipes out a large segment of global wealth.

I hope I am wrong.   We really (really!) hope we are wrong about this.

If America does get into a shooting war with China, there is no room there for rational debt financing (like there was in 1941).   The USA - and it's economy - is already margined up to it's eyeballs. 

If America is damaged (and the Democrats are already doing their best to try to do this), then the damage will not be restricted to America.  All that American *wealth* held around the world, will be damaged.   We could see a catastrophic economic collapse event, that would make the 1930's look very minor, by comparison.

When anyone examines the global debt levels, it is painfully obvious that the debt will never be repaid with real money.  There will have to be a *massive* series of infation events, to successfully effect the illusion of debt payoff.  The debt will be paid down with fake (almost worthless) dollars.

The folks in the real economy, and the small holders and average common people - like ourselves - are required to "live within our means".  We have to pay our bills, and earn some income to eat, and cover our selves with clothing and a roof.

But the political people can rape the Treasury, and extract all wealth from the public "fisc" (the public "purse"), and then puff up first millions, then billions, and now, many *TRILLIONS* of fake dollars to enrich themselves - as the small-holders and average common people are crushed with unpayable taxes.

I don't think it is really possible for the political fraudsters and the gangsters that operate as "Government" people, to grasp just how angry and frustrated many people are now, by the idiotic, corrupt and abusive stupid foolishness that we observe our political people engage in.

There is no discipline - no sanity, no common-sense or rational action at the level of the political gangster now.  There is just a vomit-stream of lies, deception, media disinformation and higher taxes that come from Governments now - and this is now combined with economic insanity that makes it painfully clear that a *massive* and extreme set of inflation events will have to be engineered, just in order to make it appear that accounts can be balanced.

And we truly are concerned that this extreme inflation that is being programmed into the system, will push a lot of indebted folks over the edge, into default and poverty - in a rapid and extreme manner that will surprise the heck out of many analysts.

This will happen because it always happens this way - it is the way of our history, and our economic history is cyclic, for so many obvious reasons.

Once the property-holders and self-financing business people start to feel as angry and as frustrated as the common poor folk feel, then the political gangsters will truly be at risk.

Our real concern - as simple analysts - is that the idiotic and out-of-control economic policy choices we see being made today, are absolutely pre-programming this angry, violent revolutionary breakdown scenario into the social/historical process.

The United States actually survived the 1930's quite well.  Everything stayed operational, and the Government ran lean, and even had a balanced budget in 1936-37.   Keynesian economists (mostly Keynes himself!) were critical of this - but it all worked.   America was stable, able to pay it's bills with real money, and because it was not in debt, was able to successfully finance the costs of World War Two.    Now, we have a crazy, angry, over-leveraged America, run by light-weights and liars, that will simply be unable to finance World War Three, if it has to. 

One can argue that World War Three is actually happening already.  But it is an Economic War now, and America is losing - and losing badly.

Consider:  You are $28.4 **THOUSAND BILLIONS** in debt, and your big plan to deal with this is:  Borrow another $4.5 THOUSAND BILLION and spend it on "social programs for poor people".     

Of course the Republicans have to vote against this madness.    But it won't stop the eventual march of economic reality.   The USA really looks to be programming itself for a major crash in prosperity, and that downshift risks a major downgrade to the entire global economy.  

When you hit the limit of borrowing on your VISA card, what action do you take?

Do you seriously spend all your effort, just trying to get another VISA card?

Or do you sit down, and craft a plan to try to bring your out-of-control spending under some sort of sustainable operational control?

We believe we are moving rapidly toward a major sea-change - an inflection point in history - where the current crop of political buffoons and fraudsters, will have to be removed by any means necessary, and replaced by prudent economic supervisors who will bring our systems back into some sort of rational balance and economically sustainable operation.

What is going on now, is just insane.   History makes it clear, it cannot last.

[ Sept. 28, 2021 ] - If You Read News, You Lose - The disinformation and nonsense that is promoted by most mainstream news media organs is not the result of any great conspiracy - it just comes from the awful nature of the digitial distribution process now.   In order to attract "clicks", the news must become more extreme and astonishingly awful, so that the most base-level human emotion switches are tripped, and you click on some awful story, just out of curiosity and low-level novelty-seeking behaviour.

https://www.businessinsider.co.za/afghanistan-female-judges-hunted-by-male-prisoners-taliban-freed-2021-9

You can read the horrible news - and yes, it is truly awful.  I hope the walking pieces of filth that call themselves "Democrat Lawmakers" in the USA are satisfied with their results.   What kind of a human would vote for a USA "Democrat"?  Someone obviously who hates democracy and justice, clearly.   Curious world.   But the news will not help you make any money.  And this is the key fact.  News is designed to shock and enrage and excite.   It has no human value, unless it is used to influence election results.

Newspapers learned this long years ago - it's why lurid headlines were invented - to sell newspapers.  And it's why the honest financially-oriented press had better journalism - for a while - since people in the serious business of making money, wanted to actually know what the truth was - and that meant real facts and numeric information,  not some reporter's rancid fartwind opinion about an event.

The whole internet has become a "yellow-journalism" exercise in lurid, awful clickbait, and shill-action to sell crap on Amazon and eBay.     The useful information is now behind the academic journal extreme-cost paywalls, as are virtually all attempts at factual journalism.

What's left is the worthless shit, the profoundly useless human "opinion", and the harmful dreck that makes use of modern neural-science results to mislead and misdirect.

We strongly recommend that you just turn in all off, and engage in other human activities, such as learning new skills.   Get some quality range time.  Do some air-work.  Learn how to repair the brakes on your own car, by replacing the brake-shoes (which are designed to wear out, in order to stop the car, so they need regular replacement.)   Learn a new language.   Build something you want from parts.  Buy a lathe and learn how to machine metal parts.   Use Linux machines instead of Windows or Apple computers - and learn all you need to make everything work smoothly.  (This is a big project - but it has high payoff.)   Run your web-browser with an ad-blocker.  Distrust all politicians and advertisements.  Learn any science you can, and then try to trust the science.   This will help you make money, and maybe also save your life.   Learn about probablity and the math behind gambling.   Be very careful speculating - but when you find a good trade, learn how to bet, and then bet big, if the numbers suggest it is indicated.

Really, learn about betting.   Only one method really works.  All the others will cause you to lose all your money, if you play the game too long.   This is *really* an important skill to learn, since all life is risk, and all life has elements of gambling that cannot be avoided.  Every human action is a gamble.

Most of all - study carefully what works, and what does not work.  Move towards what works well, and incorporate those things and that sort of approach and technology into your actions and choices, and remove that which does not work, from your choices and actions.   This is important.  Do it right, and you will have a nice, fun, fulfilling life.  Do it wrong, and your life will be misery, tragedy and pain.

Reading "news" offers no benefit, and actually is more likely to do harm.  You cannot make money from it, and in fact, the misdirection it implies, is very likely to cost you money.  If it causes bad decisions from incorrect analysis, due to distorted facts, it can really cause significant harm and financial loss.

If you consume and respond to "news", you will almost certainly "lose".   You will be motivated to sell when you should buy, and buy when you should sell.

You want to learn this, especially when you are young, and have a chance to get compound growth working for you, instead of having it work against you.

[ Sept. 27, 2021 ] - Still Long, Maybe Not Wrong? - Throughout all this foolishness, we have remained long, all-in, fully-invested. Seems to be working.  Oil has recovered, and the +75 and higher oil prices in USD, means Alberta is very Ok, as it's oil reserves and the heavy-oil extraction business is now profitable everywhere.   Should be positive for the CDN dollar.   

We see the national German Socialists, the SDP, (not to be confused with the NSDAP, the National Socialist German Worker's Party - which Stephan Dion's father did his PhD thesis on...) sort of won the election, maybe.  They got around 25 percent of the vote.  (Wtf? you say...)   The German voting is insane, and rigged so that no party has any chance of even forming a Canadian-style minority Government., let alone a majority.  This is perhaps a function of German history, since they know politics is a truly filthy and nasty-awful, high-risk thing that can bite a free person like a malaria-mosquito, and do such great harm.   

But the silly Euro-nonsense fake elections, with no party ever really elected, shows clearly why we have to retain the "first-past-the-post" rational, sane election model we have here, in North America.    I am *so* glad we don't live in Europe.  It's just broken there.   The Germans will not likely get a working coalition "government" operational until maybe Christmas.   It's a political model of political wanking, and it is stupid.  But maybe it keeps their government people from doing harm to the common people, so the Germans like it that way.   Their history suggests there might be some real wisdom in this approach.   Government is often the primary source of corruption, cost, and crime.

The absolute horror-show that Joe Biden inflicted on Afghanistan continues.   Real success had been achieved there, and the American betrayal of those who tried to make things better, continues, as Taliban gangsters carry out violent reprisals across the country.   We expect this astonishing American failure and defeat will continue to resonate for many years going forward.  

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-afghanistan-conflict-retribution-insi/the-taliban-vowed-no-revenge-one-afghan-family-tells-a-different-story-idUSKBN2GO0UG

It is hard to image how any sane and rational person could vote for a "Democrat" operative in the USA.   You would have to hate your own country, the cause of freedom, or be some kind of radical socialist government-paid type - perhaps an angry high-school teacher -  to vote for a "Democrat Party" operative in a USA election.   It is amazing that anyone could actually do this.  We cannot fathom why such foolishness is evident.  (Until we read the comments on social media, and realize just how low the average IQ-levels seem to have fallen...) 

We are hanging in ok.  Very strange times - booming in some sectors, dying in others.  My race car is working well, but my on-board biophysiology is running sub-optimal.  (If I get Covid, I am dead fast, probably..)  

The AI indicated a slight positive bias, and this, combined with the attractive dividend rates, induces us to remain long.  Minor positions are being added to in a small way.   

I was looking at "Dirt", at Tim Cook's new house in Madison Club Properties in La Quinta, Californistan.   It's very nice.  I like the roof-line.  And I like the infinity pool and backdrop view.  Have to say, I think he made a wise choice.  Nice locale, good security, nice no-colour scheme decor.   Nice use of glass, and well-integrated into the cantilever design.   It's inland and far south (had to google the location - pas mal...)  

I keep wondering - can you get a proper, true idea of what the distribution of a variate looks like, by examing it's past behaviour, or do you have to have some structural, internal physio-technical details about how the variate's driving model maps it's actions into reality?   Like, if there is some goofy little parameter that drives the variate to one domain-space always, then if you look at just past behaviour, you will be completely fooled and misled, unless you can find that hidden parameter, and figure out it's influence. 

One day, the little hidden parameter is not present, and the variate now operates and exhibits *completely* different behaviour, and this means maybe *all* the past observations are completely worthless at predicting the behavioural probabilities, of the variate's motion.  It's a completely new thing you are seeing, now that the tiny little hidden parameter is set to a different value.

See, it's possible all predictive statistics is - to a certain degree - always wrong and worthless, unless you can determine the driving parameters of the underlying processes are in motion  such that you have seen a reasonable dispertion of possible values, as one drives thru time.  

There really may be these binary or trinary drivers, that only toggle once every 100 years or so, and that when they toggle, they completely change everything - the system is driven completely differently, so differently that 100 years of careful observation, is basically worthless, if your objective is to get a sense of what the system might do tomorrow, or at any t+d, where "d" is the number of time periods ahead you are looking.

I have a sneaky suspicion we are seeing something like this now.  (It's hard to type, with my wrist-brace on...  I keep hitting the space-bar in mid-word...)

And I am certain now, that almost all of the political people everywhere, do not have really any idea what they should do, going forward, and even not much idea what they are actually doing right now.   

But I think some of these hidden parameters we see only once every 100 years or so, are either changing, have changed, or are about to change in the very near future.  It's not "Global Warming" we need to fear, it is "Global Acceleration of Unknowns" that is looming up out of the fog of Info-war we are now so deeply embedded within. 

I screened "Day of the Triffids" two nights ago.    It reminded me of Myanmar and Afghanistan.  We don't need to invent monster walking-plants...  The Taliban and the other militarist lunatics and their gangster-armies of very bad men - like in Belarus, for example - are the evil, walking, world-killing monsters we see.   We have them everywhere now, don't we.   And sea-water will not disolve them.  

[ Sept. 25, 2021 ] - Meng Freed from House Arrest, Released, Returns to China - US "Justice" Department Eats It - If our group ever gains power in this country, I will work hard to prevent any more abusive, illegal "US Justice Department" airport-arrests taking place for any reason, ever, in our Nation.   If you don't break Canadian law, then you don't get detained by our police.  End of Discussion.  We will *no longer* assist corrupt, dishonest American political organs in their abusive political vendettas.   The "US Justice Department" is a perfect contradiction in terms. 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-huawei/china-welcomes-huawei-executive-home-but-silent-on-freed-canadians-idUSKBN2GL08F

The *Airport Arrest* of Meng Wanzhou was an obscentity and in our opinion, completely illegal.   Trudeau simply made a major error.  We have no direct knowledge of what happened to induce the resolution of this idiotic situation, but if Meng wants to live in Vancouver, she is free to do so. 

Canada is her home, if she wants it to be.   The US Justice Department has appeared to be *profoundly* corrupt and dishonest.  The arrest of Meng was an abuse of justice, and should not have taken place, regardless of what your opinion is on the Communist Government of China.   I suspect Trudeau, upon his re-election, probably called Joe Bye-Done in his white house, and indicated he was going to execute an "order-in-council" to order all charges against her stayed, and for her to be immediately released, and the USA Justice Department could suck rocks in hell.   Or, the polipuppets at the "Justice Department" could drop the bogus charges.  Choose the path you want to take, old boy.  If Trudeau did that, then good for him.  It's what I would have done, in a NewYork heartbeat. 

The USA is corrupt and broken now, and we must not allow ourselves to be dragged further in the tragic brown, stinking vortex of American failure and abusive dishonesty.    Washington seems like it's being run as some Third-world "Sh/t-hole" - to use the previous President's terminology.

Regardless of what one thinks about the Chinese or the Huawei Corporation, the arrest and detention of Meng Wanzhou was politically motivated abusive American bullsh/t.   And the USA people who actually believe in rule-of-law, and the ancient legal concepts that define the Western Cultural matrix, should be deeply ashamed of working for the corrupted, organ-of-abuse that the US Justice Department has sadly become. 

I don't like Xi or the Communists - but the Chinese showed more balls and brains that the cowardly, monkeyboys at the US Justice Department.    We are living in a crazy, upside-down Bizarro World now.   The Iranians must be laughing their backsides off.

If it was Trudeau who read the Riot Act to that old fellow in the little white house, then good for Trudeau.   I don't like Trudeau either - but the idiotic and profoundly illegal arrest and detention of Meng Wanzhou was wrong on so many levels, that is degrades us all here in North America. 

We talk of rule-of-law, and good-governance, and then we allowed some ugly, stupid, illegal shit like that *airport arrest* to happen.   It was just so completely wrong.

At the VERY least, we must amend any treaty-obligations we have with United States of America, so that stupid, illegal shit like this, can never happen here again. 

If you have not broken Canadian law, then there must be no way that American political jackboot thuggery can be directed against you here in this nation - especially by armed police operatives.  Stupid, corrupt, political abusive shit like this must NEVER happen here again.  Our laws and the constitutions of all our democratic polical parties must be altered to reflect this.   This is the kind of butt-evil, third-world crap that nasty corrupt nations, run by Hitler-clones (like Belarus, for example) engage in.    We must ensure it never happens here again.

[ Sept. 24, 2021 ] - Map Your Property. Your Property Protects You- In order to avoid small and large scale wars, rational civilized humans have created private property and nation-states.   Nation States are a necessary evil, and clear private property maps and indications, are the things that keep people from fighting over land boundary disputes. 

Private land ownership is wonderful, as it allows one to hypothecate the property (raise money by posting one's real estate holdings as collateral).  The history of human civilization, can be traced by the history of how mapping and survey-action of existing property holdings has been carried out.  Without clear private property, there can be no operational civilization - only constant tribal conflict and fighting.   Property maps - land registry legal documents - both begin and define civilization.

Interesting examples of this exist.   One of the earliest in Europe, is from pre-history in Italy - the Bedolina Petroglyphs.  It is obvious to even the most casual observer, that these markings represent fields, roads, houses, and this rock carving was almost certainly made to record land holdings.  This petroglyph (rock carving of images), was the first Land Registry Office.  Here is a line-drawing of it:

https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Mihael-Budja/publication/291568125/figure/fig3/AS:650451125018627@1532091041660/Bedolina-petroglyph-topographic-map-after-Turconi-1998Fig-1.png

Ancient Babylonian records of land-ownership also exist, and were recorded on baked clay disks.  A wonderful example exists in the Archeological Museum in Istanbul, Turkey.  It was found by the famous researcher, Vincent Scheil.  Here is link to image:

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:A_cadastre_text_written_in_Akkadian._Terracotta_tablet._18th_century_BCE._From_Sippar,_Iraq._Ancient_Orient_Museum,_Istanbul.jpg

Technical information about this find, is here, in a UCLA catalogue:

https://cdli.ucla.edu/search/search_results.php?SearchMode=Text&ObjectID=P128359

Other early Land Registry information:

An academic thesis was written, on what we know about the history of ancient Roman Land Surveyor actions - both from a practical perspective (how it was done), and a why it was important and necessary to the smooth operation of the Roman State:

https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/1317548/

The above thesis can be downloaded completely, as a .PDF file.  Boundary disputes were as common in the ancient Roman state as they are now.  When I purchased my farm, my detailed review of the history of the land, showed that the property markers had been moved!  Survey work was done to correct this (common) abuse - by persons unknown.   When I had the property at my Northern Lake shoreline surveyed (at significant expense), it was determined that my neighbour had encroached, and built a small structure on my side of the property line.  Again, this is a very common occurance.   The encroachment was minor - but it was noted and discovered by a proper survey - which of course all land-owners need to do.

And of course, the wonderful thing about proper private-property land tenure, is that one basically has "money in the bank" if one owns one's property, free-and-clear, without a mortgage registered against the title.   If you need money, you can mortgage it to raise funds.

And the value of the property can improve, even if one does nothing.  The property value is expressed in currency units which will automatically adjust for monetary inflation.   Your land may not change, but it's dollar-value will increase if the economic value of your national "money" is deprecated and degraded by all the standard financial and governmental trickery that Kings and Governments have used throughout history.    And they *always* do this.

Currency debasement is virtually guaranteed to take place - and over a human lifetime, it can amount to almost complete confiscation of all private wealth, if private individuals do not take action to protect themselves.  Buying real property is a way to protect one's wealth from the ugly assault of inflation.

Land and houses can still fall in value.  Houses and buildings need maintenance, and land value can change.  But land remains a good hedge against ongoing inflationary pressures.

And we suspect those pressures will increase, as rates rise, since rising rates will imply rising costs to all those who are in debt, which is of course, a large portion of all national and global economic agents and entities.

[ Sept. 23, 2021 ] - The Crisis of the American "Democrats"  - The more it goes on, the more completely crazy it gets.   FD: We remain, all-in, fully invested, long up to our eyebrows, but with essentially no leverage in use.   The AI forecast has turned slightly negative (with the DJIA off over 1000 points, it basically had to), but it was only a slight downward pointing indication, so we held.  Today, the markets are up like a successful SpaceX launch - quite an intense upmove, given that the Fed in USAland has indicated the taper is to begin.   (And rather like the EverGrande scare, this has had no real effect.)

What concerns us, is the Madness of King Joe.   Unlike other supposed "mad" Kings, the USA's King Joe, looks like he might be actually and truly suffering from senile dementia.   And the truly hilarious part of this dystopian horrorshow, is that his Democrat Political Party rather wants it to be this way, since they are made up of lunatic Leftists, who are actively (and I am serious here) - actively - trying to destroy the existing economic and political models and systems of the USA.

Sure - we all want change - but the Democrats want to hold power, and they know they will not be elected if things are going well and fine, and the poor are getting jobs, and starting to discover how much actual tax they have to pay everywhere.  Once that happens, they start to think and vote like property-owners, and the Democrats lose and the Republicans win.

It does not take a giant brain to figure out that the Democrats want to keep America on its knees, defeated, and in crisis.   The "crisis-of-the-day" - and the Government Action Plans that can be created because of  the today's "Crisis" - are what keep corrupt and deeply dishonest Leftists (like that pussy-grabbing Gov-guy, Mario C. of NY State...) in power.

The Democrats truly *need* to damage and degrade America, in order to maintain their hold on power.   They represent the very worst kind of political figures - and what is interesting, from a historical perspective - is that this is nothing new.  These kinds of people have *always* existed, and they always will.  The deeply dishonest political opportunist, is the most common creature in the halls of power, and sitting in the seats in the legislature.

Good people rarely go into politics.  This is just the sad truth of things.   You only get the good guys in power, during wartime, or times of extreme national emergency.   But the USA Democrats (and the Liberals in Canada, their ugly little dwarf clones), know that there is so much to gain from a good, solid "crisis", that they are certain to fabricate them, if they can do so.

So the times, they are very strange and nasty.   And we predict, they will get worse.

But what we also predict, is that the markets will probably lurch upward, for quite a piece further.  There are solid reasons for this.  

Here is one:

Return on Capital:   This insane zero-interest rate thing, is not the best way to offer an economic stimulus.  It only works for capital-flush, big-holders.   All small-holders and traditional businesses are not capital-flush.  They are typically capital-starved.  Zero rates of interest do not offer any benefit, since they are not able to obtain any financing, at any rate.

But once interest rates move up, then the system can work again - we can crawl out of the Keynsian 'liquidity trap", and the investment process can start to operate correctly again.  If capital can generate an honest return, then opportunities open for all economic agents.

The market has moved up - on the Fed taper plans - because positive real rates, means a return to positive real rates of return on capital.   This will benefit every capital-holder - even the very small holders of capital, who have had to stretch into high-risk investments, in order to try to preserve capital, and also eat.

Few economists understand this, since most are over-paid salarymen at banks, or wildly overpaid academic hacks at University Depts, or (worst of all), super-crazy-overpaid chatterbots working for Government Agencies  (their output is talk only).   They are all so fucking disconnected from actually doing real business, that it is just comical.   They have - honestly - no interest in, and no knowledge of - the actual mechanics of doing business, in a self-financing environment.

I do not mean to be critical - good for them, they are happy.  But they have no fucking clue about business and commerce.  It is really interesting, just how "business clueless" they are.    The "Economics Profession" is basically a comedy-show of academics and Government workers, who argue about stuff that is just about all wrong.  Their models are like what the German Central Bank, used in 1920 - wildly and comically wrong, to the point of madness.

But so are the political systems.    And there is nothing we can do to fix it.  All we can do, is to note it, understand it enough to make some successful Keynes-style good investments, buy some nice property and some fast cars, and then grow old and die.    Nothing else is really possible.   Any change will make the systems much worse.  History teaches this.

The political pendulum swings between Too-Much-Abusive-Government, and Idiots-in-Charge-Government.   In both case, bad economics gets practiced, and people find their money stolen by taxes, and their freedom and opportunity stolen by men (and women now!) in jackboots.

There is nothing that the little guy can do.  Except try to predict the future, and make bets upon it.  It's a silly game, but it does have benefits, even if they are small (and stolen, if one is not careful).

We suspect that rising interest rates, will correlate with rising real rates of return on capital.  And this will both enhance profitability in the business sector, and drive upward moving equity prices, if the equities actually do represent real ownership "chits" on the business entities.   For that reality to exist, the stocks have to be fair certificates of ownership, and crooked bastards have a hundred and one ways to make the stock certificates turn into other things - like worthless paper.  And now, not even that, right?  

Honourable companies, which are making real products, or offering real and valuable services, will probably do quite well, in the next little while, since rising rates of return on capital are a very good thing.  

We expect the banks - if they are honest and well managed - should continue to do well.  The danger they face, is from corrupt and dishonest politicians, who will try to steal their profits with tax-scams and new crooked tax tricks of various types.  That is the major risks banks face now - the deeply dishonest Leftist political people who would tax-assault them, to fund bogus schemes that will enrich their fellow Leftists.  (Cough, cough, climate cough cough change...)

Our political environments are a vipers nest of corrupt fraudsters, bent on enriching themselves, at the same time as they create the "rolling crisis economy" that causes enough poor people to be generated, so that the dishonest Leftists can hold power, and keep the gravy-train running at full speed.

It's an ugly world - but it is at least rather painfully easy to understand.   :/

[ Sept. 22, 2021 ] - Biden Is Insane? - In a nation where "lockdowns" were used to attempt to control the Covid-19 lethal pandemic, this Biden character has thrown open the Southern US border, now to Haitian "migrants".

Literally thousands of Covid-19 infected "migrants" are being allowed to enter the USA, and only a few plane-loads of these people have been returned to Haiti - mostly as a fake, political gesture to make it appear some action is being taken.   Almost all are being released into USA.

Biden and the curious "Democrat" members of his political cabal, look to be simply insane - actively attempting to assault and degrade the operational integrity of America.   It is a curious and surprising situation.

https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/border-haitian-migrants-camp/2021/09/22/id/1037447/

https://nypost.com/2021/09/21/bidens-asylum-policies-for-migrants-at-the-border-are-insane/

The US mainstream media are mostly not even covering the astonishing human assault at the US southern border.  The above photographs are mostly from a South African news site.

The strange political stonewalling in the "White House" continues, with Boris Johnson visiting America, and discovering that the "trained monkey-people" from the US Press do not even ask questions, as Biden does not take questions - perhaps since his "handlers" have told him not to. This is not the case in the UK, of course.

The whole Biden fiasco is looking like a perfect nightmare of lunatic foolishness.  You have these agressive pandemic "lockdowns" like Whitmer applied in MIchigan - and then you throw open the southern border of your nation to tens of thousands of Covid-19 infected Haitians, and let them stay in the USA - where-ever they want to (almost all Haitian "migrants" have been released. Only a couple of plane-loads were actually flown back to Haiti - for publicity purposes).

Biden's administration appears dysfunctional.   And 26 American State Governors have asked for a meeting with this strange fellow, to try to bring some sanity (and an actually *border*!) back to America's largest potential viral pandemic influx.     So far, these Republican Governors have been dismissed by the Bidenistas.   It's a bizzare set of events - and it puts both USA and Canada at unnecessary risk.

https://www.nationandstate.com/2021/09/20/26-governors-seek-meeting-with-biden-over-border-surge/

There have been between 1 million and 2 million "migrants" enter the USA, at the southern border, since Joe Biden became "President" of the USA.  No accurate count even exists, as these people are all illegal, and have virtually all been *released* into the USA, and are able to travel anywhere they wish.

This is just crazy-insane.   We've had massive Covid-19 lockdowns here and in Northern USA - but an almost open and dysfunctional "fake-shit" border in the USA's southern reach.

This is madness.

We wonder how much longer Americans will tolerate having this strange, dysfunctional government operating in Washington?

One of the wise ideas that the USA founders had, was an actual limit on debt-funded government spending, at their Federal level.   The Democrats are now trying to explicitly destroy this, with very dangerous and unwise legistation.    This assault on American integrity is much less newsworthy than the horror-show at the southern border.   But it is possibly even more dangerous.

American political people cannot be fully trusted with unlimited access to "taxpayer" funds - and the wise folks who designed the American political system, knew this.  The Romans also knew it, and every nation experiences the problems of corrupt and dishonest political persons, filling their pockets with funds looted from the public Treasury.

The limits on debt financing are a good and sensible idea - the limits offer some protection of the people's wealth.  But the Democrats want to implement their *spending plans* - even if it puts the financial and economic integrity of America at real risk.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-house-vote-tuesday-fund-govt-through-dec-3-raise-debt-limit-2021-09-21/

The entire "Democrat" administration is looking like an insane collection of irresponsible child-adults, who seem to be determined to damage America, and degrade American integrity.

We wonder how much longer Americans will put up with the destructive nonsense being carried out by the "Democrat" politicians in Washington.  It just looks insane.

The USA "Democrats" are showing the World, what happens when you scale "fake-shit".

They are using the "climate change" scheme, to attempt to force through much higher taxes, and actively implement destructive social and economic policies that will actively damage America, and limit future economic opportunity.

It really looks quite insane.   And maybe it actually is.

[ Sept. 21, 2021 ] - Fake Shit - This is an interesting phrase to "Google" or "DuckDuckGo" Search.   In the world of the markets, one learns very quickly, that a *lot* of what one sees and hears (especially from "experts") can best be characterized as: "fake shit".

I have a particular, and long, on-going interest, in charts that show "fake shit".   Here is a very good example, which I found. 

https://narrowboater.blogspot.com/2019/11/fake-shit.html

We remain *extremely* skeptical of the great "Climate Change" - or "Global Warming" political assertion.   This is because we see no evidence for it, in our part of the world.  Maybe it is really happening, but we absolutely do not now, and never have seen, anything that cannot be *better and best* explained by standard, average, normal statistical variation in weather patterns - which we have *actively* observed for over 50 years. 

Our weather here swings thru extremes - but these are no different than they were, 50 years ago.  Back in the 1970's, a string of cold winters got people talking about "the new Ice Age which may be coming".   Now, the political bleat is about "global warming" and the "risk of rising sea levels" - which are simply not happening.  You have to fake the data, to get rising sea-level observations.  The Greenland ice cap is *not* melting - sure it might - but so far, it is not.    Go look at those faked "NASA" temperature charts again.    The people who want you to accept the lie of "Climate Change" have to fake the data to make it appear to be happening.   This is the real inconvenient truth.

The whole "Climate Change" thing looks like it might be just a political fraud, designed primarily for force-through tax increases in over-leveraged Western nations, with economic operational models that are running with dangerously high debt levels.   Everyone is margined to everyone else.  This makes for a fragile dynamic system, which is prone to pro-cyclic oscillation (ie. increasing levels of boom / bust undamped swing.)  We are seeing this already in commodity prices. 

Personally, we don't take a position on this.  If the "Climate Change" scheme will make it easier to build new nuclear fission reactors, then that is great.  Bring on the big Climate-Change Bandwagon, and we can all climb up on it and shout "raw-raw-whoo-whee!"   But the $1.40/litre per price of gasoline (4.3 litres per gallon, so roughly $6 per gallon fuel cost!), is nasty bullshit, since petrol is already taxed at more than 70% for road-repair costs.    The "Climate-Change" political nonsense just lets the fraudsters apply more bogus taxation, to what is already an abusive and brutal taxation model, which kicks the stuffing out of small-holders out in the countryside.

The average person should grasp just how much "fake shit" dominates the worlds of politics, religion, and now even science itself.  What makes free-market economics interesting, and attractive, is that we at least have economic agents who make it their business to expose and shine the light of truth, onto the nests of fraud and deception can pollute market operation.

Under Communists or Nazi's or ISIS or the Taliban terrorists - there are no "whistleblowers" - just dead guys, lying face down in their own blood-stains.

Everyone needs to learn just how widespread "fake shit" is.   It is particularly problematic when it enters into science.  Science absolutely mandates and requires skeptical folks who shout "Bullshit!" when they detect a fraud.    When the voices of the skeptical scientists are silenced - by the dishonest "Cancel Culture" that is spreading like a lethal virus through the Western cultural matrix - everyone is put at risk.   And we will all eat the costs of this sad scheme.

[ Sept. 20, 2021 ] - Ugly Day, Ugly Times - Does just not seem to be any way around this.   One more hard data-element, which shows the utter worthlessness of "news" and "news feeds".    Those of us quiet types, who seek to have rational, viable investment strategies - are again just proven "wrong for being long"...  My cynical "inner trader" (kind of the equivalent of the xkcd character in the black hat), saw this coming, with the Afghan failure plus the Covid Delta variant, and the sad fact that the Americans are deciding on booster shots (which the science strongly supports), using political, FDA committee decision-making.  (Mgmt Theory:  Why use a committee for decisions?   To make "share the blame" happen, so when you make really bad decisions, they do not stick to individual people.)

Some folks are reporting the meltdown today is being triggered by the "Evergrande" collapse.  We felt that sh/t-show had to be priced in already, since China "real-estate" is already so bogus.  In China, all land is "owned" by the Communists, who are like the fraudsters of North Korea - a gangster group that holds power thru terror, social abuse, and the threat (and reality!) of prison for anyone who opposes the Communists gangsters.   "Real Estate" as an investment class does not actually exist in China, the only thing that exists are these absurd 70-year lease arrangements.  The whole model is a joke, and I am astonished that any sane person takes it seriously for even two seconds.  Look at the details of "mainland" China "real-estate", and it is simply bogus.   It's all fake, sadly.    The "Evergrande" collapse is just reflecting that reality, we suspect.

And of course now that Xi's gang are attacking their own technology companies, it looks like it might be game-over, for the whole  "China miracle" growth-plan.  That Xi character seriously looks like he wants to turn China into North Korea.  I wonder how much longer he gets to play-up his "cult of personality", before some Chinese operative puts a bullet in the back of his head?    Without a functioning democracy, and no elections to allow for course-correction, this is pretty much the only way that a very bad leader in China can be removed.  

But anyone who would invest in mainland "Chinese Real Estate", given the Communist land-ownership of the place, has to be clinically insane.  So we just cannot see how the Evergrande collapse is anything other than market sanity returning.  

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-58579833

The problems here, are of our own making.  Our political people seem determined to kill the wise and working part of Western Culture, with their astonishing frauds and failures.   This is curious and tragic.   We here, constantly have needed to be re-calibrating for the rolling "WCSs" - the "worst-case scenarios" -  on a regular basis. 

The Biden White House is an astonishing, impressive sh/t-show of disaster and failure.   A clever fellow has characterized it as: "The Great Unraveling".   The market says he is right.  No way around this fact.

https://spectatorworld.com/topic/great-unraveling-biden-administration

[ Sept. 17, 2021 ] - Technicals - I always wanted a "technical"  (a Libyan pickup truck, with the "Rat Patrol" modification...).  My "inner trader" wants to trade using technical analysis (to make money), and I have to surpress both desires, to make money consitantly.   So, I hack with  the NorthStar Z-80 board instead.  :)

Also, have to fix a dock.  (A real one - underwater - and I am not looking forward to the experience...) 

[ Sept. 16, 2021 ] - Our AI is Working.  The Human is Not Running Well... - We have to determine a better method to connect the AI to the decision mechanism for execution of indications determined.  The Human is not running very well.  Seems to be regularly going on and off-line, in unpredictable manner.   Reading XKCD comix seems to be prescription to deal with seriously degraded performance characteristics fo the Human.

Note to XKCD:  Helicopter is not same as "Flying Car".  Car-driving is trivial easy, can be learned as soon as legs grow long enough so that feet can touch car-pedals.   Helicopters (and non-hovering aircraft) actually require some formal training to avoid crashing and unwise premature death.  The basic idea of "flying car" is to offer user-interface that allows similar ease-of-operation as is the case now with current automobiles.  (One is adding just one more dimension - how hard can it be?   Get in a helicopter, and try to drive it without instructions.  Almost certain that test-subject will break the helicopter.   We have direct experience with this exact experiment, except we understand the researchers rapidly exhusted their supply of available helicopters.  )

The future has turned out to be just as difficult and error-prone (perhaps more so), than the past.  (big sigh...).  

AI Note;  Human claims to be experiencing degraded performance, due to little-understood error condition, termed: ennui.    Based on previous datasets, our recommendation is some range-time, with the *MX-Experimental*, operational parameters toggled: "mode = auto".    This has been shown to  address past performance issues of this sort.  (Reference Dataset:  "All_work_no_play_makes_Jack_dull_boy.dat")

[ Sept. 15, 2021 ] - Plagues, Terrorists, Central Bankers & Kagemusha - The Taliban has taken $12.5 million in cash and gold from the homes of senior Afghan government officials, and they have also executed the brother a former senior Afghan government official - probably because he was the only guy they could get hold of.  The Taliban are terrorist gangsters.   Afghanistan is lost.  All we can do, is hold the funerals now.

Truly, anyone or any organization who assists or aids the Taliban, or offers them economic assistance,  is - without question - guilty of aiding and assisting terrorists, and hence is a proven criminal under Western-world anti-terrorism and anti-money-laundering laws.  The Taliban are systematically going around and killing singers and people who play music.  The Taliban are simply evil, and their grotesque brand of religious-fascism needs to be purged from this world.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-58583217

If we were god-believers, we would characterize the Taliban as the proven "Spawn of Satan".  But we are not, so we simply assert that the Taliban make the historical Nazis look like fine honorable gentlemen (which they certainly were not).  But we must make it clear, this planet cannot and must not tolerate human vermin like the Taliban, living on it.  The world will have to gear up, and deal with this Taliban threat, the same way it dealt with German Fascism and Japanese abusive militarism in the 1940's.   Carpet bombing all Taliban districts with all manner of weapons and devices of all technical characteristics, is probably indicated.  The Taliban need to be made to become extinct.  No negotiation with creatures of this sort is possible or should occur. 

Any individuals or organizations that offer aid or assistance to Taliban Afghanistan entities, are at extreme risk of arrest as criminal agents actively assisting terrorists.   And if the authorities do not act to make the arrests, private citizens may well find it necessary and appropriate to do so.  The anti-terrorism and anti-money laundering laws are *very* clear on this.   The Taliban are terrorists, and must not be offered any financial or military assistance of any kind. 

Just because America failed, it does not mean that the rest of the world has to also fail.  The Taliban need to be erased, with or without American involvement.  We wonder how long it will take for all rational humans to reach this conclusion.   Anyone or any entity that assists them is terrorist and criminal, and must not be tolerated.

Lack of honesty and political fraud seem to be the norm now, almost everywhere.  The impressive Lie Machines of Washington are running hard and fast now to use the Covid plague to enhance abusive restrictions on US citizens.  We urge everyone to get vaccinated, since the science supports this obvious and effective personal defensive measure - but it is interesting to see the politics play as it is.  "Never waste the opportunity for enrichment and entrenchment, that a crisis provides!" is an old, local Liberal political mantra - and it is playing out at warp speed now, in North America. 

In the East, the landscape is turning into a Kurosawa drama (a jidaigeki...)  - except it is now being played out with ballistic and cruise missles, and nuclear brinksmanship.  It is hilarious, but risks becoming crazy dangerous, very quickly.   The new Kim Jong-Un is a fake.  You don't even need an AI to tell you this.

It seems General Mark Milley, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff in the USA, will have to fall on his sword, like a good Roman, to protect his corrupt and incompetent Commander-in-Chief Joe Biden.  Maybe old man "Bye-Done" really did win those votes in that very curious Presidential election - it matters little now.   We are in the poo, either way.

It looks like - with the targeted assistance of the fraud-flingers at the Washington "Democrat" press-club, poor old honourable General Milley will have to take the fall for the defeat and debacle in Afghanistan, even though the mess was architected by his political bosses.  

It's probabaly the greatest and most tragic American defeat and failure in the USA's history.   The fiasco in Afghanistan makes the Vietnam War look almost like a success.  Vietnam was lost to Communist forces, but most of the rest of American-supported far-East Asia remained free and Democratic.    The stark difference between North and South Korea - with it's "Berlin Wall" between the failed-State of the North, mired in starvation & economic stagnation, and the wealthy, free, successful South Korean nation - provides the World with the clear picture it needs to see the failure of the Communist-neoFascist model.

North Korea's Kim Jong-Un, Version 1.0, has almost certainly died.  They have replaced him with a "kagemusha", a fake "body double", who smiles, and looks maybe 10 years younger.  We have no positive proof of this, except that the face of the new guy, does not match the face of the old guy.  The new Kim Jong-Un, Version 2.0, looks so much different, that one does not need an AI image-analyzer, to spot the differences.  

So, the political nonsense of this current epoch is becoming just plain hilarious.  Suga, the lame-duck Japan leader, says the North Korean latest ballistic and cruise missle tests are "outrageous..."  blah blah blah.  Lots of talk, no action.  Typical Japanese.   I really miss the old warrior spirt of their ancient culture.  The World needs  - would really benefit from - a strong, nuclear-armed Japan.    A weak Japan, full of those a$$hole Leftists like what dominated the English political landscape back in the 1930's, will encourage the Chinese to behave badly, and may result in another occupied and/or destroyed Japan.  Not a good outcome for Western World folks, and really bad for the Nihonjin (Japanese people).

We've seen all these movies in the historical record before.  We know what will happen.  All the imbalanced situations find a way to move back into some sort of balance.  It is just nature's way. 

But the North Korea "Kagemusha" thing - that is just wild and weird.   Not all Asians are smiling-fool stupid, the way they are made to appear in political propaganda material.   A healthy nation distrusts and keeps a close check on it's leaders, since they are, of course, the greatest source of danger, madness and instability.  

But crazy Asian "Kagemusha" stuff - you only do that so you can maintain a harsh war-footing, and to keep the people bamboozled and misled.    The "Cult-of-the-King" needs to be replaced with the scientific value of honest democratic methods.  We have - just barely - managed to do this in the west.   And they have - sort of - learned this in Japan.  They have truly learned it in Taiwan, and if China survives without civil-war, it will be an honest, Taiwanese-style democracy that eventually runs and manages China.    We just hope it does not take World War Three to make this needed transition take place.

The World is at an interesting and significant inflection point.    Global economic growth - because of the Covid-19 "ranking-full-stop", looks to be over 5% next year.  This is a very big number, and may save us all.

https://www.thenationalnews.com/business/2021/09/15/global-economy-to-expand-53-in-2021-at-fastest-pace-in-50-years-unctad-says/

This is a good thing, and it would be fine and good if the insane, disaster nations of the World, like North Korea and Afghanistan, which do not have honest, sane, functioning governments, could simply be isolated and prevented from doing any more damage to planetary political and economic stability.

Perhaps a sustained carpet-bombing from orbit, using low-radiation-yield fusion devices?  

Hey, just kidding!   (but, if one thinks about it for a minute... hmmmm... )   :D

[ Sept. 14, 2021 ] - What Works & What Fails.- The world, life, politics, business and warfare - all tend to bifurcate into these two great sets.  But what we find, of course, is that the later one, the "class of ideas and devices and methods that fail, and do not work as desired or intended" are a much bigger class of things, than the former.  This seems to be the most significant trend we now see.  Call it - "hypercrapification" perhaps? 

We seem to be be meeting with curious difficulties at every level in every area lately.  It is pretty comical.   Just about everything seems to be much more complex, expensive and difficult, than it was only a few years back.   Perhaps it is simple population pressure.   The roads and cities and urban services are more crowded, and the formalism and associated bureaucracy seems to have been dialed up everywhere, to ten or 20 times what it was only 10 years ago.

Costs seem to be rising at geometric rates, at the same time as opportunities seem to be imploding.  Models and methods that worked, are no longer working, and opportunities for small, independent economic agents seem to be suddenly disappearing.

Costs related to Covid-19 are part of this, but there are other factors also at work.  Thru our electronic linkages with the world - iPhones, internet-access, etc, we seem to be getting routinely hit with frauds and scams.   Text messages on the iPhones and Android devices are particularly bad, as is email.  It used to be a useful way to communicate.  Now, it is just another "risk-hole" where problems and threats can enter. 

Of course, life has always been like this.   It's always difficult to do anything good and fine, and even harder to get paid for it!   But these days, it seems to have become functionally impossible, which is very curious.   There seems to be recently, a curious lack of economic opportunites.  This is surprising, and it does not seem to be related to Covid.    I have a sense that it might be a more classical "diminishing marginal returns" scenario, interacting with the low-return on capital that is evident in the financial markets.   

Interest rates seem to be falling again, as commodity prices rise (Atlanta Airport bonds are being offered at only 50 or less basis points above maturity-equivalent Treasury paper, and oil prices are back above $70 per barrel.)   There seem to be shortages of the stuff one needs - but lots of crap on offer that no one wants or cannot afford to buy.   And very soon, the much higher housing prices are going to be reflected in economy-wide tax increases, as property-tax rates will be ramped upwards to reflect the new, much higher valuations that prevail in sub-urban areas.

The markets are also richly valued.   In the technology space, only a few major players seem to have captured most of the benefits of the mass-adoption of brain-numbing always-on video players, iPhones and Android devices.

We get a sense we might be seeing a "sea change"...

[ Sept. 13, 2021 ] - Naomi Wu, Sexy Cybergirl & STEM Promoter / Maker / Ethical Hacker - Ok, I am not sure if Naomi Wu is an "Ethical Hacker" - I just came up with that as I was keying this.  I think it might be the highest-status characteristic I can apply to someone - kinda like what a "PhD" is in the world of formal academia (which I and my friends & associates are *not* part of) - so it seemed appropriate.  

Naomi Wu has *very* large breasts.  I was a bit surprised, when I watched her first video, which was actually about the Makerbox Laser cutter.  (I want one.)  Based on my own experiments with home-made lasers, and my recent visit to a production shop, which has a *very* large Turkish-made, industrial laser which is used to cut large sheets of metal (amazing, impressive device), I just want a laser cutter.  But I want to use it to cut metal (aluminum), for various fabrication purposes.  The smaller laser-cutters will cut plastic and wood, and can be used for marking surfaces on cardboard sheets.   Perhaps a plasma cutter is what I need...

Anyway, here is the link to Naomi Wu's archive (probably mostly from Youtube postings.) 

https://archive.org/details/naomiwuarchive

Why am I so impressed with Naomi Wu?  Here is why:   She *gets* being female and being a science/technology analyst & business person.   That is quite a combinationm, and this is interesting..    Boys and girls are really different - much more different than most humans realize.   But both can be very good and engineering, if they choose to be.

Naomi Wu is a science & engineering promoter and Youtube-broadcaster.   She also speaks excellent, carefully thought out, very articulate English.   Despite being a Chinese resident, and probably born in China, (she has a slight accent), her command of English is absolutely first-rate.

Best Video:  "See my Boob!"   (which is pretty funny, because it is a discussion of her implants.)  And - the very best thing from the video - is this quote:

"Risk is math."  -  Naomi Wu

Now, that is impressive.  That is exactly correct.   All life, all human action, involves risk.  To attempt to craft a life that is free from risk, is absurd, and logically and practically impossible.  It is also a very bad idea, for some very obvious (and not obvious) reasons.  The best way to deal with risk, is to quantify it, and manage it.  Problem solved.  But remember, the risk is real.  

We left the City, not because of what we feared, but because of what I felt we could embrace.  What I do with the property development work, and farm management is risky - tree-cutting with a chainsaw, land clearance and forest and field management with big Kubota tractor with front-end loader bucket, building projects, repairs and upgrades, etc.)  All these tasks are much more physically risky than life in a City.  The difference of course, is that I have *much* more control over the parameters of the various risks.  In the City, in a condominium, almost all decisions are removed from the individual.  That I do not like.  It makes for a dull, boring, no-progress kind of life. 

An interesting life, involves risk, and it involves design and developement and experimentation and science and math and engineering.   It just does.   And that world is not just an exclusive male world.  It is open to females also - even ones with impossibly large breasts, who look like anime fantasy chicks!   I think this is Naomi Wu's pure genius.

And for the very well done "See my boob!" video (not porn, actually a fine, well articulated discussion of risks and characteristics and motivations for her choice of breast implants), here is a direct link:

https://archive.org/details/youtube-zVAjbJGd4GE

Several folks questioned my moving to a farm from the urban downtown, which I truly loved.  But it just was a decision that had to be made, as part of my basic "pursuit of happiness" which honestly, truly is the primary driving force in all human (and probably even animal) action.  Sure, there are times we must "do our duty", but there are also choices that we make for ourselves, and these are really important. 

Naomi Wu says the same thing about her breasts, which are comically large.  She has installed the very largest breast implants that are possible - right at the edge of the chart.   I just love that she has done this, because she did it for herself, no doubt against the various wishes of friends and family, one suspects.   Well, good for her.   She is smart, and does good technology reviews of modern products, ideas and methods.   She also licences all her work under "creative commons" open-source licences, which is also good.  You can copy and share her work.  

She gets it - as a maker, as a broadcaster, and as a female.  We wish her all success possible.

The USA is the strongest, best nation on the planet (after Canada, of course) because their founders were wise enough to recognize that the "pursuit of happiness" is absolutely critical for human survival, and thus needed to be hardwired into their organization model.  That human right to it is written right into their Constitution, and this has ensured that significant American prosperity becomes possible, since happy people are often *very* productive, long after their basic needs have been fully satisfied.  Rich people who build, like to keep building.  They don't do it just for the money.  Economists and psychologists know this, because the rich often keep working hard, long after they have more than enough money.  

North Americans - and most smart people - like to build and design and develop things and ideas.   So do Japanese and Chinese and Koreans.    I think they do it, not just for the money, but also because it makes them happy.  They (and we) continue to build, and remain productive, mostly for the pure joy it brings.   This is a fine human trait, and it should be nurtured and encouraged.

[ Sept. 12, 2021 ] - The Curious Loss of History - So, we now live in the *Future*.  I was enjoying reading the drivel some *academic* (which means *leftist*) "historian" (which means "feminist anti-western-culture propagandist") had written on the site "unherd.com", mostly because the author, Dr. Suzannah Lipscomb, had included a print of Albrecht Durer's etching from 1498, of the "Four Horsemen of the Apocolypse".  I thought - at least, good for her - a feminist-leftist academic historian, who is able to write about something other than feminist the-vagina-through-the-ages thought.

First,  I could not even comment, without PAYING MONEY to the Leftists who operate the website.  That is sad.

And Second, I was disappointed, since Dr. Lipscomb did not manage to write a pussy-thought-free note.   Halfway thru the article, it turned into notes about how the Pope was portrayed as the anti-christ, and the image was a grotesque giant female with oversized labia... (oh my).  I wanted to ask if maybe the artist in question was just a Protesting Person (later called a "Protestant"), whose family may have been burnt to death by Catholic Churchmen, and he just wanted to say the Pope, the boss of the Catholic gangsters that ran much of Europe, was just a "right cunt", to use the old Anglo-Saxon experssion that was (and still is) applied to powerful people who are hated by the masses for their cruel, bad behaviour.  

After joining the "unherd.com", it turns out you have to pay the poor folks *money*, if you want to comment on their site.  Too bad, as I was actually quite impressed by Dr. Lipscomb (god, how I love her name... sounds like a porn-star name, and the tiny .gif image makes her look really quite hot, truth be told...) 

I was hoping to offer some insight on the other great Durer image, that of the Knight, riding past Death and Satan.  That good Knight ignores them both, just as his faithful dog ignores the lizard below him.   It is the image of Ideal of Western Culture - we are here to build the City - and even though we know Death and/or Evil will eventually destroy us ALL, we just have to focus-forward, and do the best we can.

Durer's image shows us just a perfect visual of this absolute truth.   I think it is the image of our time, given the GOF-research generated lab-leak disaster of Covid-19, and the SARS-CoV-2 virus, and the complete military collapse of the USA in Afghanifornia, now the new Land of Terror.  (Still cannot understand why the USA fucked up so badly.  They *had* the place, and could hold it at low cost.  Afghanistan is full of copper and gold - and maybe even (like Mongolia) has an underground mountain of uranium.  I know a guy who was trying to get a copper mine up and running.  That project is toast now - rather like the USA military now appears to be.  I hope I am wrong about this, of course.)

But we are all still doing pretty good, compared to every single other time-period in history. 

If these poor "historians" could learn a little math, and do more surveys of World literature, and had more scientific focus, they might be able to say somethings true and useful.   From the story of Prince Genji (a Japan novel from roughly 1000 AD), to the detailed writings of the Biologists and Economists, to the operational nature of scientific progress - there is so much hard and overlapping, interesting evidence that shows we have basically achieved liftoff of the human species, and we now just need to keep the rocket from going off-course or exploding.

Dr. Lipscomb would be a fat slag with 7 children, a dead husband, and a burned-out house, begging for food in Kabul, if she had the misfortune to be born in Afghanistan.   She was lucky to be born in a free country, with proper land-tenure, a banking-system, and social-rules that allowed her to get an education and prosper.   *ALL* that English Western-Culture stuff came from somewhere, and lives here now, because of the astonishing SUCCESS of Western Culture. 

But sadly, she just talks the usually lefty-feminist nonsense, and manages to completely miss the point (and the nature) of the last 1000 years of hard, difficult (yet WILDLY successful!) progress.

So many good people died, fixing the stupid, tragic, superstitious god-nonsense that has poisoned the process of human thought, since the beginning of human time.  We have only *just* managed to barely get science working, and construct social structures that don't kill people by the time they reach 40 years old.   We still have not put all the god-junk into the Great Garbage Pit of History where it truly belongs.  But we are getting there.  Religion is a toxic cesspool of lies, nonsense and foolish drivel.   But we are *free* of it in most Western nations now.  I can say publically that "god is a bullshit concept, invented by criminal fraudsters trying to "rule" you and steal your money", and I don't get killed for saying it.  At least, not today,eh?  :)

God-garbage is just ugly, nasty politics by a different name.  No proper scientist can harbour any reglious belief, without being mentally corrupted and degraded.  This is just plain and simple truth - yet the churches and mosques and temples and synagogues still exist, sadly.

But if we cross culture and disciplines, we see the power of the movements away from ignorance and superstition, towards enlightenment and free-thinking.   America showed the way, with strict political rules to seperate "church" and "state".   Japan also make this transition.  Hence it is no accident that those two nations are the most economically successful in the entire history of Earth.    Yet "historians" now focus on vaginas and gay-folks - which is really just plain hilarious.   I think that tells us more about "historians" than it does anything about history itself... :)

The Albrecht Durer "Knight, Death and the Devil" is in the Economics 2021 section, here:

http://www.gemesyscanada.com/448329755

Ben Franklin and his Leyden-jar and kite flown during a lightening storm  (Franklin grasped the idea of positive and negative electricity),  Volta, and his battery invented by studying electric fish, Dr. John Lettsom and his inter-disciplinary "Medical Society of London",  the great wisdom of the Japanese Tokagawa Shogun, and his careful removal of the vile infestation of Jesuit-Catholic god-garbage,  the genius of the ancient Chinese, in their invention of gunpowder and rockets, the invention of the printing press by Gutenburg, Sterling and Watt and all of English and Scottish engine-making, Roger Bacon, Michael Faraday, Charles Darwin, Turing, Planck, Einstein, Bohr, Marconi, Tesla - and thousands of others who have driven the world FAR forward, so that even a modern "poor" man is wildly more wealthy than the richest ancient.

Even if you hate the world - any objective assessment of the data shows that - no question - these are the best times that have ever existed on this planet Earth.  The greatest number have the greatest wealth and freedom-of-action that has ever been possible in all of human history.  THERE ARE REASONS FOR THIS!   The poor, silly academic "historians" should try to focus on exactly why this is the case.  That is their job.

They should try to do it.

Since we cannot trust - or obtain anything useful from the academic historians - we are on our own - but we still are in the Library, like Liebnitz was.  We are back to looking at various "first principle / first version" phenomenon.  We are studying 19th century accounts of the interior people of Ecuador - the Shuar and others, who had very limited social organization, and almost no contact with the outside world, up until the 20th century.  They had a fierce, independent warrior-spirit culture.  They were related to the groups the Spanish called the "Jivaro".   These folks were the ones that created shrunken heads (called "Tsantsas"), which were made by pealing the skin and muscle-layers off of a severed human skull, boiling it in a mixture of herbs, and then shrinking the skin with hot stones and sand.  The final result would still look like a small human head (but without a skull), and would even have hair and eyebrows.

These were talismans, and also attested to the skill and success of the warrior - in the same manner that North American indian tribes would retain "scalps", and fighters on both sides in Vietnam would retain necklaces of dried human ears.  War trophys and lucky talismans have a long and curious tradition in all warrior cultures.  (The Knight in Durer's etching, has a fox-tail for "good luck" on the end of his spear, a common practice among European Knights of that time period.)

There are significant similarities in all human cultures, and in many "first versions" of ideas and methods.  By understanding how and why these ideas and methods are designed and develop, it is possible to estimate and understand how they are likely to evolve through time.

This phenomenon is not limited to markets.   It is highly evident in markets - but it also appears in *many* others areas, and is evident across most human-related disciplines.

Knowing about how these social-cultural evolutions play out over time, can offer serious and substantial advantage to the practitioner - again, across many disciplines, from biology & medicine to economics & finance.   And of course, the progression of a plague - in a civilized society that is urbanized - is remarkably common across cultures and historical epochs.  Lucretius in his "De Rerum Natura" concludes his account, with a detailed description of a Roman plague, which describes events similar to what Albert Camus included in his novel, "La Pest", a 1940's fictional account based on a real plague outbreak in a French colonial Algerian city.  

[ Sept. 11, 2021 ] - Canonical Videos for the Resilient  - Well, here we are 20 years in the future.   Twenty years ago, from my condo in Toronto, I watched the World Trade Centre Twin Towers in NYC collapse on a live TV feed.   It was true "shock and awe".   I had been on the phone to a broker, trying to close (sell) a long postion in QQQ's (the ETF that represented the NASDAQ index).   The broker told me the market had just closed.  I recall saying "WTF???"  And he said, an airplane had hit one of the WTC towers.  I recall thinking ("Some idiot in a Cessna...").  I was desperate to unload this massive QQQ position I had bought the previous day  (all my liquid funds, and then some.)

Right when I hung up the phone, it rang, and a good friend from Vancouver, B.C., called me and simply said "turn on the television...".   The one building was already burning, and as I watched, a second Boeing aircraft slammed into the other WTC tower.   "Holy fucking jesus..." was I think all I said.  And then I thought - "I am as dead as those poor bastards.   That QQQ long postion will go to zero maybe, and I am beyond just bankrupt..."

A good friend was actually staying right at the WTC - the hotel across the street - he had a morning meeting with Merril Lynch, but he was a lazy bastard like me, and hated early meetings - so he scheduled for 10:00 am instead of 8:00am like all the keeners.  This saved his life.    A guard came to tell him "the hotel is being evacuated",and he said ok.  The guy came back, and shouted at him a minute later, saying "The fucking hotel is being evacuated right fucking NOW!!  YOU MUST LEAVE *NOW*!", so my buddy grabbed his laptop, his suit jacket, and with only pants on and no shirt, he ran into the street, to see part (a very large part -a 6 foot aluminum tube) crash down on the sidewalk beside him - part of the aircraft landing gear.

SO, he legged it up Broadway, way up the road, to a car-rental office still had cars available, and got the very last vehicle they had - a Cadillac Escalade, which he paid for with a big deposit using a credit card, and then drove it to Canada, to his place in Muskoka.

We assumed USA was under attack.   Kinda expected it.  Funny part of the story, was his wife had told him "Don't stay downtown by that WTC building complex - its a bomb target!"  - based on the previous attempt to blow the place up, using a panel truck full of dynamite in the parking garage.  Most folks don't even remember that.  He said it would be fine.  (Always listen to your wife's advice.  Seriously.)

It was the day the world changed, now 20 years ago.   Crazy times - and even more silly now.

I actually saved my own hide, by running to the brokers office from my apartment, and they let me go right on their little trading floor, when they said the Toronto market was still open.  I was a junior nobody, but since I had showed up in person ("I have a full-on long position in USA market.  I need to hedge it or I am dead.  I need to do some trades RIGHT NOW, please..."  It was a smallish shop, of good people.  (Of course, I had tried to call in, but all the phone lines were just busy.  But by showing up in person, all soaked with sweat in my business suit, they figured I must be serious, I guess.  They let me right into their trading room, to place orders.  I really respected them for allowing this.  They were Marathon-Brokerage, which was eventually bought by TD.   Their office was in Queen's Quay, right at Harbourfront.  They were good brokers - real first class folks who put the customer first.)

I stood behind a guy who had a trading screen in front of him, and I asked - "Is there an index ETF for Toronto that mirrors the TSE 300 or some portion of it?"  There was - it was called the XIU IShares S&P/TSE 60 Index fund.   I explained I had something like 3000 QQQ's in New York, which was closed, and looked like it might be closed for a while.. And I sold 1000 XIUs, just after learning what they were called, and that they even existed.  The price was not too far off the TSE market - and the TSE had not moved very much.  I was schocked.   I sold another 1000 and then - I can't remember exactly, maybe a couple of 1K units more.   My hands were shaking - but at least I was not inside one of those burning towers, being killed for real.   

I managed to hedge most of the loss I ended up taking, when the markets in New York opened again, days later.   It was a crazy time.  Business action just stopped - and real quick, too.  All the transport trucks disappeared from the highways.  Toronto market stayed open, and opened *way* down the next day.   I covered my short XIU's too soon, but made enough on that side, to hedge the massive loss in the QQQs I took, when the New York markets re-opened.

But everything changed that day.  I resolved that I would move out of Toronto, before it killed me.  I loved my life in the City, but the days of the *big city* were over, I decided.  I could see the future real clearly, it was strange.  (Remember, that book "The Coming Plagues..." had been written in the 1990's).   By the autumn of 2002, I had a firm deal to purchase a magnificant farm property, for only about 200K more than what I got from selling my condo.

It was probably the best decison I ever made in my entire life.  But it also made me feel like I was gonna throw up, since when I closed firm on the farm in 2002, I did not have sufficient funds to execute the purchase.  I was able to get a long closing date (beginning of March, 2003), and that saved my bacon, again.   By hook and by crook can by crazy good luck, I managed to pull together the funds (the "Bank of Dad" turned out to be a critical source of funds, naturally.   Dad got a 2 bedroom apartment that was attached to the main farmhouse, so he did ok, and was able to physically enjoy the equity position in his investment!  Plus, we got to do stuff together, in the last years of his life, and I think he really got a kick outta that.   He died from cancer less than two years later.

Sometimes, I feel a bit strange and sad, that the very best life-decision I ever made, was the result of such a shit-terrible tragedy.   If we had still been living in Toronto - with the Covid-19 lockdown nonsense - it would have bankrupted us, or killed us all - or maybe both.    But on the farm, and with the investment structures we had set up to basically "assume the World will suffer serial catastrophes", and our remoteness, we have skated thru the latest viral shitstorm, rather ok.

My partner was in the 1995 Kobe Earthquake, and had her house shake-and-break all around her.  When she left her cracked and broken apartment building, the neighbourhood was burning, and her apt. had no running water or electricity.   She spent the next several months staying with her aunt.  They eventually repaired her apartment building   She was lucky.  Many others were not, and they died in the high-way collapse, and the broken, burning buildings.  The death-toll was  6308, with 43,117 injured.  It was a very bad earthquake, partly because it happened at 5:46 AM, so almost everyone was still at home.  Exactly 1 year earlier (January 17 was the day), the Northfield quake had happened in San Francisco Bay area, in 1994.

https://pubs.usgs.gov/circ/c1198/chapters/037-046_Earthquakes.pdf

(Check out the quoted probability on page 9 of the above .PDF file.  We actually also expect a massive earthquake in San Francisco within the next several years - before 2030, just based on simple cycle theory, directly a function of plate-tectonic accumulated stress.)

And we had a cottage, in Goderich, less than half-a-mile from where the 11-second hyper-tornado went thru the town, and wiped out the downtown.  It literally blew over 4-story brick buildings that had stood for over 100 years.  The place looked like Beirut on a bad day.  But it missed our little place near the beach.

So, invest carefully, and focus on being prepared.  That whole "Prepper" thing is actually quite rational.   Mother Nature - or very Bad People - will do their best to kill you dead.

Every fine day, is a gift like a bag-o-diamonds and gold.   Take joyful pleasure in each one.  :)

Let's go back in time, to the first, canonical music video service - MTV, back in 1981 - the very first four hours, which we found on the "Internet Archive".   The future may be toast - but we still have some fine archives from the past...  :)

https://archive.org/details/1981.08.01_MTV_First_Four_Hours_Remastered_12am_Saturday_August_1st_1981

We have earwigs in our sunroom.  We step on them, and they just run away.   They have learned to be resilient!   Resilient - means "capable of withstanding shock without permanent deformation or rupture."   This is the kind of investment structure you want to create.  It not only lets you sleep at night, it lets you live during the day, also! 

[ Sept. 10, 2021 ] - Life Among the Eloi - I dusted off, and fired up the Z-80 SBC's last nite, and ran a little simulation exercise, on a computer I built myself, with a JLC-PCB board, a soldering iron, and a bag-o-parts (from "Mouser", a big online electronics store).   I still have to use an old laptop, running Kermit, to load programs onto the thing, and to save the programs, but I plan to design and create a method whereby I can load and save programs to audio-tape, on an old reel-to-reel TEAC tape recording machine. Then, I will truly have a fully functional, stand-alone computer, that can do real work, independent of any external technology.

It's a bit of a curious exercise, but the need to actually do it, haunts the background of my conciousness.   Perhaps it comes from reading Neal Stephenson's "Anatham".   (I recently bought a new "Fetch", I run experiments with plants, and we live in secluded enclaves, doing self-education, quite expecting the external world to experience a growing list of catastrophic collapse events.  Since these now seem to be playing out, we really only have to decide just how "millenial" we will go...)  That book had too many creepy parallels to my own analytic conclusions from a lifetime of economic/political research.   That whole "Limits To Growth" bullsh/t nonsense is back in fashion again, just like it was when I was an under-graduate.   It is just creepy and disturbing, watching how profoundly unwise the operation of State-level social-economic systems can be - and currently is.

Maybe we can alter the course of the ships-of-state away from the shoals of political fraud and whirlpools of socialist madness, we see looming before us in "every land and every nation, from Lake Geneva to the Finland Station"...   But more likely, not.   One fellow alone has little real power to change anything.

We remain all-in, fully invested, since that is the only sane trade possible.  Money itself may turn out to be of less value, than equity ownership in honest, profitable business entities, run at arms-length from the kleptocrats of the "Governments".   Governments are like underwear.  No matter how careful you are, you really *must* change them regularly.  They get smelly and yellow because of the place they are located, and the jobs they do.    No one cares about "money laundering".  What we *really* need is to regularly wash the nasty, filthy bits out of close places of Government.

Politicians are like the head-lice that children get.   You really need to scrub well - as the little creatures grip onto their positions with astonishing tenacity.

Use that "fine-toothed-comb" of the People's desire for Freedom and Opportunity,  and remove the political parasites, when ever you can.  The little bloodsucking creatures are everywhere, and more seem to be produced each day now.   :D

Meanwhile - in the SARS-CoV-2 Covid-19 morgue...

Deaths from Covid-19 are closing in on 5 million plus, which is actually a tiny fraction of what we expected.  Our models suggested 50 to 100 million dead, truth be told.  But what we fear, of course, is that maybe we are only in the third inning (to use a really awful baseball analogy).

At CostCo today, our checkout clerk, whom we know well because of the silly amount of shopping we do at the place, mentioned that 2 of her family member, back in her home country had "passed".   At first, I did not understand the idomatic language expression.  "Passed" sounds like they graduated successfully from a school, to my ears.  But she actually meant that they had fucking DIED from Covid-19!  

So I had to inquire further...  It seems they were both - the spouses of a brother and a sister - double vaccinated.  They had both received TWO doses of the SinoVac vaccine - the Chinese one that does not work very well.  So, it seems the data we have on vaccine efficacy is confirmed (partly, in a very small sample), which is of course, sad and awful.

And the Covid-19 / SARS-Cov-2 news just gets worse and more ugly:  Some righteous fellows filed a detailed FOI (Freedom of Information) request, to get the *details* on the money that Peter Daszek's sleazy little "EcoHealth Alliance"  charity was getting - in this case: $3.1 million (USA dollars) to investigate the "risk of bat coronavirus emergence ".  This information - 900 pages - covers NIH grants from 2014 to 2019. which means it was GOF (gain-of-function) research funding, for the WIV (Wuhan Institute of Virology), given to Peter Daszek's  "EcoHealth Alliance" enterprise.   He got $3.1 million, but only "awarded" $599,000 to the WIV.  (Makes one wonder what happened to the rest of the cash?  How much ended up in Peter's Little Pocket?)  

https://unherd.com/2021/09/is-this-proof-of-a-lab-leak-cover-up/

We personally believe that this Peter Daszek person should go to jail, for aiding the mass-murder of 5 million people.  But hey, we could be wrong.  Maybe he is fine person, only interested in the health of the furry little bats - and humanized mice. (Go look up, just exactly what that is - a 'humanized" mouse.  It makes very interesting reading...)   

We are not "conspiracy theorists".  There is no "conspiracy" here.   It's just a typical funding scam run by some second-level lightweights, who sought to fill their little pockets with taxpayers cash.

In Canada, this sort of action happens all the time.  It is the stock-in-trade of the Canadian Liberal party.  Just check out the MARS project that the previous Ontario Liberal Government "funded" in downtown Toronto.   Or check out the "charity" that the Trudeau Liberals funded - to the tune of almost $1 billion (!!), which was connected with Trudeau's wife.  The "We Charity" was given $900 million (Canadian dollars), so that it could hand out money to folks with Liberal ideals - across the country - to exploit the Covid-19 crisis, and pump up the LIberal voter base.  It was a shameless political kickback scheme on a scale that was breathtaking:

https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/trudeau-says-charity-with-ties-to-him-and-his-wife-only-one-that-could-run-covid-19-student-volunteer-grant-program

Every bent politician took advantage of the Covid-19 crisis.  But the algorithms were the same, as always.  The taxpayer slush typically goes back to Liberal supporters.  It is how the system works here.  It is corrupt as hell, but it is also standard average politics.  It's ALL about the money, of course. 

But Anthony Fauci - that curious fellow in the USA - has said publically (even though it is proven otherwise) that "GOF (gain-of-function) research was not funded by USA at the WIV".  Rand Paul (and this 900 page set of documents) clearly proved otherwise - but no one really cares, sadly.    The media seems more interested in the right of American females to murder their unborn babies, so what the hell.  A nation operating that way - they will reap what they sow, we suspect.

Of course it was a lab-leak.  But now, what does that matter?

Most Chinese folks are really hard-working, and honourable people - all trying to do the right thing, in a difficult and high-competition-level harsh economic and political environment.   If they can make some money - and get out - then they do.   (I *really* know of what I write, here. )

We are certain the Covid-19 SARS-CoV-2 virus was the result of lab-work, and an accidental release.   But it makes little difference now.   We cannot put this lethal virus back into the bottle, and so we had really better learn to deal with it - and construct working vaccines and anti-viral agents than can stop it.

Personally, it just means I want my third "booster" shot, regardless of what the monkey-boys at the World Health Organization say.   The WHO is run by some fellow from Ethiopia.  You know, that shit-hole country that is killing it's own citizens in TIgray province?   Those guys, right?   Well, fuck them.  They have about as much credibility as the women-beating, mother-killing Taliban terrorist ragbags.

It's time we here in what remains of the operational, civilized free-world, told these fuckwits from these shit-hole nations how things are gonna be run.  And if the political fraudsters and "UN Civil Servants"  (oh, fuck, please go away, all of you lying skanks) if they don't like what we do, then the can simply fuck off in protest. 

Perhaps we could begin by blocking (and returning!)  those boats full of "refugees" that keep crossing illegally into our lands, so they can eat our food, steal our assets, and assault and murder our females.     Let's be clear here - we are NOT anti-immigration.  We *need* immigrants.  Our birth rate here is way below replacement.

But we do NOT need more parasites and criminals and fraudsters and crooked skank terrorist garbage - like that raghead the incompetent New Zealand "Government" was "unable to deport".  

What the fuck is wrong with New Zealand?  Their fucking cops don't know how to operate handcuffs or something?   Seven people stabbed by a terrorist raghead at a supermarket - and the cops *knew* this guy was a major, serious threat?   That idiot female Prime Minister of New Zealand, Jacinda Ardern, should be charged with gross dereliction of duty, convicted, and then be put in prison with Brenton Tarrant.   They could pass the hours talking about the "The Great Replacement." (which I have read, and it is really just a bit silly - but the birth rate of white-folks really is falling.  And it is falling sharply, too.  But maybe this does not matter much, either.)

Honestly, no one really cares about race or religion.  They care about whether they have enough money to cover the goddamn rent or mortgage at the end of the month, whether they can pay their taxes, and if they can maybe feed and support their partners or dependents, after their job has disappeared, because of some fuckwit stupid idiotic government economic scheme.  

They care if they have freedom, and opportunity.  Race and religion are fake markers, that desperate people who are psychologically at-sea, cling to like life-rafts in a typhoon.  God is bullshit, and so is the colour of your skin, or the shape of your ugly, large nose.   What matters is your bank account, your food and ammo supply, your house and land, and if you are getting some pussy now and then (if you are a normal, hetro guy) - all of which of course, determines if you get to have a family or not.  Politicians who figure this out, tend to do well at the polls.

Politicians that talk about "climate change" are talking bullshit, and they should realize this.  But the stupid ones do not.  So the world is a worsening, tragic mess, which needs constant repair.

But for now,  we still have to clear up and clean out the corruption in our own houses - and we may not even be able to do that, for some time yet.  The fraudsters and gangsters that dominate our own political matricies - at every level - are doing all they can to make this difficult and/or impossible.

Currently, the bad guys are still in charge, and the rude-boys and liar-girls can still push their frauds forward with ease, given the media-support they receive.   But the Great Scam may not last forever.   Politics which requires a series of large lies to enable it - along with the political figures themselves - often end up in the Great Garbage Pit of History.

I hope I get to both see it, and also help it happen.   We badly need change at the Federal level.

[ Sept. 9, 2021 ] -  A Time of Truth?  -  We have a CHANCE here in Canada.  The Conservatives are slightly ahead of the Liberals in the polls.  Since all the media supports the Liberals,  I am surprised.. 

I have seen so many political failures.   I am used to swimming in political shit - since this is the life of any right-thinking person in Canada - a nation where the Federal politics is dominated by dishonest, pocket-filing Leftist fraudsters who raise taxes every year, and run economic assault against the average guy in the self-financing sector.  This is the Liberal-Leftist operational methodology.   It never changes.

The "Liberal" leader, Justin Trudeau and his wife actually were DIRECTLY RESPONSIBLE for BRINGING the COVID-19 VIRUS to CANADA.   Why would anyone support this party of unwise clowns?

The Liberals are toxic, dishonest cheaters, who are similar to the scam-artists in the so-called "Democrat" party in the USA.  What is the source of this madness?   Why do so many people hate their own history and homeland, that they seek to destroy it, using the failed economic models of the 19th century?

Anyone who votes for the Liberals has no business being involved with anything where any sort of responsibility is required.  They must be deluded or dishonest.  Perhaps they know they are on the take?  The Liberal political machine runs on deception and high-taxes.  It governs by means of media-perception, it explicitly seeks to degrade traditional Canadian civil society social structure, and it is openly hostile to effective national fiscal operation and basic economic reality.

This is the sad state of things these leftist "Liberals" have engineered.   Why would anyone vote for them at all?  I simply cannot grasp where this strange Leftist delusion comes from, and how it can infect and degrade so much human thinking.  Almost nothing good, or of value, ever comes from Government.    Government exists to "rule" people, and extract their economic surplus.  A small, careful, focused Government is best, as a necessary evil to ensure national defense and basic rule-of-law.   But the Leftists attempt to make it the solution to every human problem, with the result that it becomes the enabling device to amplify theft, economic restrictions, and abusive assaults on human freedom. 

Leftist Governments expropriate prosperity, and serve only themselves.  They are bad organizational models, as they degrade basic freedom and human economic opportunity.  And this is obvious to anyone who looks at both present-day and historical events. 

It is good to see the Conservative ahead in the polls.  But what could possibly explain why anyone would vote Liberal?  It is like shooting yourself in the foot.  And then shooting the other foot, for good measure.  And then your head.  It simply makes no sense at all.

https://www.ipsos.com/en-ca/news-polls/trudeau-best-choice-for-prime-minister-say-canadians-but-lead-over-shrinking-fast

And note the dishonesty of the news story:  The polls clearly show the Conservatives in the lead, yet the story is written to suggest "Trudeau's lead is shrinking...".   What a curious and comical piece of journalism.

I am no fan of party politics - but how could a thinking human vote for a Liberal ever?  It just makes no sense.   Perhaps it is gays and women, voting for the "Pretty Boy"?   The whole election campaign in Canada seems strange and tragic.   If folks were wise, the Liberals would not get even one single vote anywhere. 

[ Sept. 7-8, 2021 ] - Plan for Disaster & Live in Truth - Although the world has fallen into a curious pit of deception and fraudulent foolishness - the Stormfronts of Truth - the actual operation of nature - remains very constant and fine.  

We had a terrible series of storms yesterday afternoon and evening, and into the night.  They knocked all the power off, and we had to run on the generator.    This worked weil, as we have completely prepared for this sort of silly nonsense from Mother Nature - who regularly tries to kill us  ( and remember - She *will* eventually succeed!)

But not today.   This morning, after an evening of cutting over to generator operation via the various transfer-switches, very late at night, the grid-electrics came back on.  Our connection to the big Lake Huron nuclear-fission reactor was restored - and we had all the AC amps we could use.

And today - when our weather forecasts called for more grim weather - we woke up to this just wonderful day of warm sunshine, gentle breezes, and just perfect climactic conditions.   We seriously doubt that the climate is changing, as it has always been just crazy-extreme here where we live - variations from +35 C in summer to -35 C in winter.

The weather and the stock-and-bond and currency markets move in these silly cycles of wild randomness.  (There is none - absolutely none - of that stupid "balls-in-an-urn" bullshit that they teach in Probability School!   Jesus - what is wrong with people in academia?  Do they all have their heads up their backsides?   Like the political people do?   Perhaps.... )

Wild randomness is a harsh-mistress.   Kinda like the Moon, yes?   :)

But if you learn to dance with her, you can enjoy every sandwich!   Just like Mr. Zevon suggested.

Meanwhile, the Lie Machines continue to run at full-tilt.  Take a look at this stinking bucket of comical deception:

https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-fed-stiglitz/nobelist-senior-democratic-economist-stiglitz-says-feds-powell-should-go-idUSKBN2G40WD

Now, lets be clear:  I believe that Joseph Stiglitz is a fraud.   He is not an "Economist" - he is a "Democrat economist" - a political figure whose entire picture of the world suggests that "there are mispricings".  Well, what is that?  There is nothing more deeply dishonest in science -than the exercise of saying your "data is wrong" and "it should be this, because that is what my personal viewpoint is".  Stiglitz is as phoney as a three-dollar bill. 

And there NO SUCH THING as a "Nobel Prize in Economics".  There is a bogus offering by the Central Bankers of Sweden, where they offer - at the same time as the actual, real Nobel prizes, funded by the legacy of Alfred Bernhard Nobel - a prize to governmentalist "economists" who retail the same, Leftist / Socialist world-view that they themselves subscribe to.

Stiglitz did "win" that curious "prize" - but all his work involves bogus arguments for more government, more regulation, more social/central "control" to fix the "problems of economic activity" because of his particular, warped political beliefs.

It is not surprising that this astonishing heavyweight fraudster - a complete faker shit-artist of the absolutely most egregious kind - it is not surprising that this person wants that failed US president Biden to terminate Jerome Powell who is currently the head of the Federal Reserve - the top man at the US Central Bank.  Powell is a good man, doing a difficult job, and doing it rather well.  Powell has encouraged evidence-based decision-making and offered clear, honest communication of intent.  The results speak for themselves.   Again, we have another situation where Stiglitz is 100% wrong.

For Stiglitz, every economic issue or problem requires more government regulation, more rules, more taxes, more restrictions, more "oversight", and more jobs for fat scam artists like himself who subscribe to his deeply dishonest, bogus world view of Socialism for All & All for Socialism.   The man is an ugly and abusive joke.  He is the Harvey Weinstein of the Economics profession - except he wants to fuck the entire free-world's prosperity - instead of just female Hollywood starlets.

Seriously, Stiglitz's work in "Information Asymmetry" is part-obvious, and part-pure bullshit.   He got a "prize' for it for political reasons - like most "prizes" are given out.

Look - I've read the noxious nonsense that this Stiglitz person - this arrogant fraudster - has been puffing out for a long time.  The stuff that Joseph Stiglitz says is just plain wrong.   I know this for certain, because I lived through those times - and invested and survived!    Stiglitz is just plain wrong.

Let me say this again.  That fellow Joseph Stiglitz retails information that is just plain FALSE.    The sh/t he has been saying for so many years is just WRONG.   If he really is so stupid as to believe the shit he says, then he is clinically insane.  But I don't believe that.  I think he is just a very smart guy, running a very big fraud.  And doing very well out of it.

Here is *exactly* what I wrote - back in November of 2017.  Stiglitz was mouthing-off, saying that Bitcoin should be "outlawed".   I wrote this, mostly to keep my head from exploding with righteous anger and frustration:

My Comments on Joseph Stiglitz, back in November of 2017 

Joe Stiglitz wants to "outlaw" Bitcoin.  I normally couldn't care less - I don't own any Bitcoin, and I don't need to use it.  But lots of folks *do* need to use it.  And that this arrogant asshole has suggested it be "outlawed" really makes me angry.  Stigliz is *not* a scientist.  And that is a very big problem.  He is not doing any sort of true science - because science requires objectivity and observation. But this person does neither.  And he is a liar and a fraud because of that.  

He degrades the profession of Economics, by using it as a political tool to lever up government activity and taxation levels.  This is wrong.  He lies.  If he looked - if this arrogant blowhard just took one single objective look - he would see that Bitcoin - despite its virtual nature: 1) is just like standard fiat money, as it is completely arbitrary, and the units themselves have zero intrinsic value;  2) is valuable, in that it lets small holders do international trade at *vastly* lower transaction costs.  (I know, because I have seen it done.)  And this blowfart says that does not offer a social value???  Lower prices to transact, offered to small business and low-income private persons - this does not offer social value??   He has his head far up his asshole, if he can't see that.   

Bitcoin, and the other crypto-currencies are probably a classic asset bubble.  But they are being bid up, because they actually work.  And with the PUBLIC, DISTRIBUTED LEDGER, they are damn sure not something that is the result of "Information Asymmetry", the work he got his "Nobel" for!   Perhaps this is the source of his hostility.  The cryptocurrencies demonstrate the lie that underpins his assertions of "information asymmetry".  Go read his stuff.  It is, I fear, just crap - lots of very, very clever math, being used to hide what is basically some obvious assertions stretched into incorrect conclusions.   Don't take my word for it.  This guy is a fraud - like so many of the modern Leftist-economists.  They are *not* doing science!  They are doing *politics*, and what makes me blow my top, is they are successfully passing it off as science, because most people (hell, almost ALL people) do not actually read the hooey they are writing, much less understand the obscure jargon they use to cloak their politics.  

This guy says the 2008 financial crisis was caused by the rating agencies.  And I know - for absolutely certain - because I lived through it and studied it carefully, day by day, that this is *absolutely wrong*.   I started a file on the US housing bubble in 2006!   The 2008 meltdown was due entirely to government collusion with dishonest real-estate agents and hyped-up speculators, who inflated an asset-bubble in US housing prices - the true cause was the "McMansion", purchased by people who had no incomes - the Wall Street folks were just enablers.  The rating agencies were using the same horseshit good-math-used-badly trick that this guy uses!  The cause of the 2008 crisis lies squarely at the feet of BAD GOVERNMENT POLICY, and if this person had any intellectual honesty, he would fucking admit this.   I say we should outlaw this asshole.  Lets keep BItcoin (for better or worse), but lets at least hoot this arrogant lying prick off the public stage!

----- end of November 2017 comments on the "economist" Joseph Stiglitz -----

I am truly convinced that the USA Democrats are actively seeking to damage and degrade the economic operation of the USA.   There can be no other rational explanation for the madness and outright nonsense that they are actively promoting.  

It is strangely curious to see this comical nightmare play out in real time.

But at least, what the heck, the weather here is nice!    :)

[ Sept. 5, 2021 ] - Epic Failure - Some folks have suggested my critical comments are a bit extreme.   They are not.   If we ignore the Leftist mainstream (New York Times, Washington Post), it would appear that the comments from intelligent Americans are at least as critical - perhaps much more so.  

This writer characterizes that strange clueless buffoon, who is acting as the "Secretary of State",  Anthony ("Winken") Blinken, as a:  "moronic incompetent", who was "dangerous" for America, according to John McCain.    This certainly has been proven by events, without any question or debate possible.  This Blinken person is an astonishing character - truly incompetent to a degree that is surprising for anyone who hears the disinformational drivel that falls from the mouth on his face.  The USA could have selected any citizen at random, and statistically, would almost certainly have made a better choice for the role than this fool.

https://amgreatness.com/2021/09/04/adults-progress-and-disaster/

Elections in USA (and here also) are won based on perceptions created by media organs.  Tens of thousands may die because of stupid, bad decisions by corrupt, incompetent politicians - but it is the *perception* on voting day that counts.  Althought the American Democrats, and the Canadian Liberals are actively trying to alter even that old, traditional reality - introducing multiple voting opportunities for the undocumented in the USA, and attempt to abolish "first-past-the-post" elections (in Canada's case).

People should recognize what is happening, and the mechanisms by which it is being made to happen.

A major, significant course-correction in the direction of social-political thinking is needed, in the Western cultural matrix.   The drumbeat-of-deception and the relentless, Leftist propaganda machinery, needs to be disabled.  We are all *very* far away now, from Vaclav Havel's suggestion that we "live in truth".    We do not have much chance to live in truth now, as we are at serious risk of drowning in stormy seas of fraud and deception.

Here are predictions:  The attempt to recall California Governor Gavin Newsom will fail, as the Republicans have lost faith in the integrity of the mail-in ballot process, and relentless press coverage has been signalling Newsom will survive by a landslide. The recall election has already been decided - by the press and CNN and the California Leftist Establishment.  It's over.  The good guys lost again, it seems.

The New York Times has run attractive pictures of Newsom, with huge "Vote No to Recall!" signs in the background,  The articles dismiss the election schemes being carried out as bogus, and so most who would vote "Yes" already feel they have been defeated.  The "vote" just becomes another Democrat exercise in perception management.

The nature and effectiveness of the modern 'media information organs" - virtually all of which have an extreme Leftist bias - is powerful and significant.  We see this process used in market process regularly now.   It is a dangerous and yet, very effective strategy.    The modern propaganda machines work *very* well.

But the net effect is to put people like Biden and Blinken and Pelosi and Schumer in charge of the USA.   This process manages to create disasters even worse that were engineered by Donald Trump and his people.  

And that is a hell of an accomplishment.

Western Culture needs a serious reset.   We are at very high risk from this media-driven preception-management propaganda process, as it seems to be putting the very worst possible people into positions of extreme executive power.  This is a bad outcome.

This extreme lack-of-wisdom at the top, enabled by the suspension of disbelief and the burying of the basic truth-of-things, is going to have serious and sustained consequences.

We are all flying on one of those Boeing 737-Max-8 aircraft, and the altimeter is unwinding.  The pilots are unsure of what to do, and it shows.   I just cannot shake this strange metaphoric feeling.

[ Sept. 3, 2021 ] - Go West - Horace and Horst are in agreement.  Even Erika has forgiven Horst for lying.  Play this old video for the catchy tunes, and pretty girls...

https://www.bitchute.com/video/fzQiOYQ804pq/

We need to repair the World.  There are really good ideas that work - and really bad ideas that do not work, and cause disasters and mass-horror.  

The solutions to problems DO NOT come from Governments.  The solutions evolve directly from the cultural-economic models we use - private property, finance, the harsh skepticism of good science, fair commerce and the absolute human requirement of freedom.

Western cultural success is under very direct threat now.   We have *very* bad, and dishonest Governments, which seek to enhance and entrench their power, through the use of intense, focused deceptions and very clever frauds.    This is serious.  We are all at risk.

The greatest threats we all face in the future, are now coming from within our own homelands.   This phenomenon is not unique, and has happened before in history.

We have to defend our traditions, against the clear, and very direct assaults that are being made against them.  These are not academic, philosophical and ideological vague things and ideas.   The nonsense and frauds that are being retailed today, by dishonest Leftist politicians, will damage and weaken our Nations and our Western Cultural Commonwealth.

We had better wake up to the nature of the assault - and stop it - before it weakens and degrades our ability to defend ourselves against it - and destroys our Western world view.

Vote wisely, please.    Our collective future depends on it.   In Canada, we have to all cast our votes for the Conservatives.   We must remove the current scam-artists that currently hold power in Ottawa - and have put our homeland at risk, and done such terrible damage to our chances of future prosperity.   This is a first, local step that can be taken.

In the USA - you must be very careful, and act to limit the damage that the Federal "Democrats" are trying to do.   They are doing all they can to weaken and degrade and damage America. 

Their actions are logically consistant, and very dangerous.   As the USA withdraws from the World stage, these "Democrats"  seek to degrade democracy by preventing accurate and fair voting rules and procedures.   They seek to limit and degrade American military power, and are engaging in financial schemes that are certain to damage American financial stability, the American currency (the MONEY!),  and thus the effectiveness of American global market power.   And their current spending plans will effectively bankrupt the Federal Treasury.  

Spending another - borrowed - 3.5 *TRILLION* dollars on free-money-for-poor-people schemes and fake "infrastructure" projects - on top of the 7 to 10 TRILLION dollars already spent on pandemic stimulus schemes - this is madness.  OR it seems like madness - unless one assumes that the "Democrats" in the USA actually are acting with specific malice towards the American people.   Perhaps they know what they are doing?

If one makes that assumption - the "Democrats" actually WANT to weaken and damage American people - then their actions make perfect sense.  A weak and damaged America is more likely to vote Democrat?   Is that the plan?   It looks like this might be the strategy.  And it might work.

Even the curious American Federal Government effort to counter the Texas limitations on abortion - that now makes sense too.   (A woman in Texas who got pregnant from unwise sexual action, still has A MONTH AND A HALF to decide to abort her pregnancy!    All that new law says, is that after 6 weeks, when the ultrasound scan can show an actual live human feotus growing - she can no longer decide to just kill it - in Texas.  She has to go to a Democrat "Kill Your Baby!" State.   It is a small, and not very significant law, that will have no impact on good people who live in truth and wisdom.)

But this is now the big "Democrat" rallying cry in USA.  How can a human being vote for a bunch of corrupt fraudsters whose big political viewpoint is:  "Women have the RIGHT to kill their babies!"      This can only be explained, if one assumes the "Democrats" want to damage America, and drive down it's live-birth rate.   

We need to see what is happening.   A gang of very bad people, have taken power in Washington, and seem to be doing all they can to hurt, weaken and damage everything that America is, was, and wants to be.

To correct serious problems like this - your first step, is to SEE that they exist - since the primary use of propaganda now - is to MANAGE PERCEPTION.   Your media sends you fog and smoke and clever, crafted, Leftist lies - and they do a very good job at this task.

And this makes modern propaganda much more dangerous, than those old 1930's Hitler pictures.   This new propaganda is very, very dangerous, since it might just result in your death - the death of your friends, and maybe even the death of your unborn child.

This very real assault on Western Culture has to be stopped. 

[ Sept. 2, 2021 ] - Hotel Afghanifornia - You can "check-out" any time you like - but you can never leave.   Joe Biden left American citizens stranded in Afghanistan.  

What an incredible failure the man is.   And he had people like Pierre Trudeau's child to help him, in his abandonment, and tragic "cut-and-runaway" exercise.    It is an exercise that has condemned over 25 million people to slavery, and the brutal dictates of armed, murderous religious-fascists.   It is horrible and awful in a truly world-changing manner.

And after throwing an entire nation into a bandit-run, terrorist hell, he returns his focus to his "homeland", and is now saying - explicitly - that he wants to make sure women have the "rights" to kill their unborn babies in their wombs.   That is his big project now.  Seriously.   Could any fiction-writer make up a plot-line so weirdly ugly and awful?  

All that Texas law is saying, is that if a baby is growing inside you, you cannot kill it, once everyone looking at it, is sure it is a live, human baby.    Does a pregnant female really have the "right" to kill her baby?   Really?  Is everyone certain that that is a "human right'?   We are not convinced.  But Joe Biden is.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-court-abortion-biden/biden-enlists-white-house-counsel-to-fight-texas-abortion-law-idUSKBN2FY1K6

More and more - that January 6th protest event in Washington is starting to look very different.  It is beginning to look like it was an honest, desperate and rational attempt to stop the train-wreck of cruelty, fraud, madness and extreme, abusive lack-of-wisdom that we see playing out each day now, in America.   America looks to have become something very different, now.  I cannot believe the good people in America want the kind of nation the Democrats are trying to build.  It all seems to be going wrong, and at an increasing rate.

We *must* engineer new and different processes whereby the Western World can select it's leaders.  Biden and Trudeau are pure politicians, concerned with "perceptions" and staying in power at all costs.

They are propaganda-artists.  That telephone call from Biden to the now-deposed Afghan leader proves it.  

The political fraudster's stock-in-trade is the "false picture of the world" they retail to their misguided community of people who support them.  But these false-pictures are now killing people.

False narratives have a very long tradition in the History of the World.   This sort of thing is very useful in the stock market.  And it is critical in politics.   Politics is almost entirely about the fabrication of false-pictures, demonization exercises, false or "fake" news, spin-doctoring, and blame-shifting.   In the old days, "hero-worship" and the "Cult of the Great Man" model was popular - but now, we see something much more subtle - and effective.   We see an entire Leftist Press and Media machine - all digital - constantly pumping out a stream of disinformation that deflects and mis-directs the voting public to falsehoods that are held up as "Issues" that the shining-star political figures will address for us - successfully, of course, because the "Issues" are mostly just shimmering images projected on smoke - mirage-images to begin with.   They are easy to defeat, with a magic wave of the Wand of Deception.

If you study propaganda - what works, and what does not - you can see, and even analyze the common thread that makes these "grand illusions" possible.  Ever since the beginning of film and modern media, the "news" has been manipulated, to drive public opinion in the desired direction.  It began with photographs and news-reels, (the US Civil war, being the first war where actual battlefield death-scenes and mass-graves were photographed.)   Within just 70 years, moving pictures brought sophisticated, powerful images to the screen, complete with sound-tracks. Media-manipulation propaganda was born - and it worked - along with terror, brutality, and mass murder - the game-stopping success of Hitler and Stalin showed the process and procedure with clarity and horror.

Instead of enlightenment, and increased knowledge - the media-images gave the corrupt and ambitous political monsters, the ability to execute massive fraud on a scale rarely scene in any previous historical epoch.

And so here we are.  The modern internet technology - now under increasingly abusive restrictions and censorship - at first promised a chance to counter the media propaganda machines.  But that chance has been lost now, probably forever.

We will swim now, in a digital sea-of-deception, until our limbs grow tired, and we "check-out", one by one.   The iPhones are hacked by Apple, the internet routers are all hacked by Governments, and every public or private conversation is captured and held until the keys to decrypt it can be obtained - which they always will be, eventually.    The ability of small-holders and individuals to fight the "Great Digital Data Rape" is so small as to be insignificant.

The very bad guys have won again, and we are all poorer for it, and damaged by it.   If you want to see what the future will look like, just look at what Afghanistan looks like now - or Belarus, or Myanmar.

See, it starts with lies, high-taxes, lots of government intrusion and control and false-flag tricks and "nudges" - and it ends with death-camps, people dragged from their homes and killed by gangsters-in-police-uniforms, and prisons full of people who die under mysterious cicumstances.

We need to reset Western Culture - and the entire Western-World political model, with new people and new methods & recognize the astonishing threats we are all under - both from nature itself, and our dishonest, fraud-promoting political "leaders".

[ Sept. 1, 2021 ] - Updated AI Model - And it still says we are up and away.  Curious.  What will the market do?  Up - Flat - Down - Up - sideways - and ends up, but our real-time test, a few ticks lower.   Clean the ordinance, and get ready for tomorrow...

Meanwhile, in the Ministry of Truth, the Lie Machines are working at full-speed.  As a student of the psychological mechanism and methodologies of propaganda, I have been watching the USA MSM with real fascination.  To see so many falsehood-generators compete for the American's "hearts and minds" is truly scary.   Their media machinery is running hard and fast now.  Here is a good summary of the extent and scale of the fraud that is on offer, by a fine fellow who recognizes it:

https://pjmedia.com/columns/stephen-kruiser/2021/09/01/msm-re-writing-of-bidens-afghanistan-tragedy-already-in-high-gear-n1474445

The US Leftist media is pumping out this astonishing storm of dirty datasets, supporting Joe Biden's unwise, wrong and grotesque actions to abandon the Afghans, after spending 20 years getting the place to where it was almost a stable, modern nation.    Biden is not quite as bad a Herr Hitler.  He certainly is not as smart.  But he has a lot of media support in the production of his dishonest propaganda.  It is an impressive display of digital vomit.  Quite amazing, actually.

[ Aug. 31, 2021 ] - Days and Nights in Kabul - Straw men, hollow men, and that whimper that accompanies betrayal and collapse...  The poets spoke of all this.   Evil rising, as the good men with justice in their hearts, go down to defeat & death.   The political success of the Big Lie, and the results - people die - all this unnecessary tragedy washes over the world, a river of deception, overflowing it's banks and flooding it's corruption and filth across the landscape of men.  See the women and children choke, drowning on mud-coloured lies,

The Terrorists in Afghanistan have murdered a popular Afghan singer - dragged him from his home and killed him in the street, shouting:  "Music is forbidden under Islam."  These Taliban terrorists also now have control of the American bio-metric devices for identification of all Afghan civilians.

https://nypost.com/2021/08/27/taliban-kill-squad-hunting-afghans-with-americas-biometric-data/

This is a American betrayal of an entire nation.  These awful "cut-and-run" tactics, and the surrender to the Taliban Terrorists, is a crime on the scale of the European Holocaust in World War Two.  

The mass-murder of European Jews began as a program to re-settle them into "concentration camps", for their own protection.  This was the lie used at the time.  United States and Canada did the same thing, to it's citizens of Japanese racial background.  Camps were built, people had their property seized, and were re-located to camps.   European efforts - initiated by the National Socialists of Germany - took their program a step further - and simply murdered many of those sent to camps, using poison gas - telling the people they were to get showers to clean themselves, after travelling in sealed box-cars to their destination.  Instead of water, Zyklon-B gas - an insecticide - was sprayed into the "shower room"  to kill them.

It takes a Government to commit the really big crimes - mass property theft and mass murder.  This happens with sad regularity.

And this is now what the Afghan people face -  systematic murder at the hands of fanatical, religious-fascist Taliban, who are greedy, loathsome bandits.

The Americans who engineered this - allowed it to happen - are guilty of a crime.  The USA spent 20 years of global, co-ordinated effort, assisted by many other nations - the UK, Canada, and others - and had removed these Taliban terrorists from the Afghan lands. 

To now surrender Afghanistan - and billions of dollars of advanced technology equipment - back to the Taliban terrorists, means the current American Government politicians are guilty of a crime on the scale of the Holocaust.  

An entire nation has been dropped into a technologically-enabled, fascist slave-state run by religious fanatics who murder at will.  This will prove for most people in the Afghan region, to be a perfect Hell-on-Earth.

And it also means - once the food runs out, and the food-riots begin - that the Taliban terrorists will likely return to the only thing they know - warfare and terror -  but directed at their neighbours and any groups that oppose them.   

This unwise American betrayal and surrender, will have lasting consequences.  

The American "Preppers" - those who speculate on conspiracy-theories, and prepare themselves and their families for civil breakdown, and open warfare in the streets of the cities - this kind of worst-case scenario has now become reality in Afghanistan.   In all of the Afghan regions, the SHTF - "Sh/t Hits The Fan" nightmare of total collapse into the worst-case, Hell-State nightmare - this has become the new operational reality.

Taliban terrorsts only know how to kill.   Soon, the people of Afghanistan will again learn this.  We will see history repeat, now as extreme tragedy and mass-death.   And when the Taliban terrorists seek to export this death - the only export product those kinds of people are able to produce - what will be done then?

I have this strange, curious sense, that I have just seen an event similar to the death of the Arch-Duke Ferdinand, and his wife Sophie, murdered in Sarajevo, in 1914.  That event triggered World War One - the "Great War", also called the "War to End all Wars".  It wasn't.

This bizarre, awful action by the American Democrats feels like it might also initiate a major re-alignment of global power - and an eventual World War Three.   Not right away - more madness will have to happen, first.  But it may.  We have to consider this risk factor, since it's probability is not zero.

Life always goes on, somehow.  And of course, so does Death.   But that 16th century Knight, with that wisdom & firm resolve, in Albrecht Dürer's most famous picture -  he has left the building.   And so now, Death and the Devil take the stage alone, and are ascendant.

This sad Daunt of America, as it's Knights lay down swords, and leave the scene, and put their horses out to pasture - this is an ending.   But for Evil - the Devil -  it is a new beginning, bright with the promise of stolen treasure and streets running red with blood.

[ Aug. 30, 2021 ] - Momma's Got a Squeeze Box - as George Harrison told us all..   and so does the market.  Watching SPRT.   Support.com is actually a good idea - if you need to buy software support - well, maybe just do that - but keep your hardware under your own management and control.  Do backups.  And *regularly* check that your damn backups can be restored. 

This verification of restoration operations - this is boring, but very critical work - typically missed, or done badly by indifferent kids with little diagnostic ability.   When it goes wrong, they just open their mouths...

You have to nail-down process, the way the Roman Army did.  Discipline, repetition, verification - and thus the narrow path to damn good results can be safely traversed.   Marcus Aurelius actually wrote about these same problems, in his military campaigns.  He kept a notebook, bedside.  Curious how little changes in the world.  Gangster-bandits have *always* been a problem, and always will.   Stupid, crooked people in power - always a problem - never goes away.  And bad process, executed poorly, by weak-minded simpletons - another problem that *never* leaves us, and always requires constant attention.

Squeezing the gonads of the short-sellers - this is a time-honoured way to make money in the markets.   When it gets done, it is actually a sign of a healthy market, working the way it is supposed to work.   Short-selling is always a dangerous activity.   But it is the dangerous, bold stuff, that can make money - sometimes big money.  But if big money can be made - then big money can also be LOST.  

You have to be either very skilled, and/or very lucky to play this game and track the path to profit.

And squeezing the "shorts" is also a path to profit.  Also dangerous.   But if you can do it - good for you.  I like to see the little guy win, truth be told.   Software-as-service is silly - but getting a good support arrangement for critical business needs - that is wise, and sensible.   Will be interesting to see how SPRT tracks from here...

[ Aug. 29, 2021 ] - Cloudburst - We've warned clients for years that the "Cloud" model, and "software-as-a-service" is a profoundly bad idea.  It is little more than the return to the old "Data Centre" concept of the mainframe-world of the 1960's to the early 1980's.  Some external people control your most critical information, in a place somewhere else.  Like all really bad, seductive ideas, it looks somewhat good, and it sort-of works, until it doesn't, and blows up in your face.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-microsoft-security/researchers-cybersecurity-agency-urge-action-by-microsoft-cloud-database-users-idUSKBN2FT0K8

If your data is valuable and is mission-critical important business information, then you want to keep it close, and watch it carefully - and most of all - control all aspects of access and security, yourself.  Putting your data on Amazon or Microsoft or Google cloud-servers, is just silly.

You are giving them the keys to your kingdom, and the means to destroy your business.  Don't be so profoundly unwise.  Keep your data on your own computers, if it is important, and critical.

Meanwhile, at least one man got his mission accomplished - sort of.  He had to leave his people behind (Taliban terrorists prevented them travelling to the airport) - but he got the dogs he was responsible for, to safety.  Paul Farthing got his rescue dogs on a privately chartered aircraft - and got them to safety.  In our opinion, he is a serious hero.   Some British government twits have criticised him, and told lies suggesting this diverted action from rescuing people - but that is complete lie. 

Farthing served for 15 years with UK military in Afghan lands, and he setup a rescue for animals.  He refused to leave without his dogs.  He arranged *PRIVATE* transport for his dogs, and some people - who appear to be nasty-skanks -  tried to prevent this and were critical of his actions..   We believe this guy Paul Farthing is a true, honest HERO.  

I've been reading a thesis, by a Michigan woman, who studied the Norse Heroic legends, and her conclusion is that the truest definition of a hero, is a good person, who is stubborn in his fighting, unwilling to surrender or back down from a critical fight, where the hero knows that something must be made to happen.  By all technical and moral definitions: Paul Farthing is a hero.   And the lick-spittle toady-boys in the UK, who criticise Farthing, look like - well, they look like the bad folks they are.

But Paul Farthing is an actual, honest hero.   There is no heroism in just executing a surrender-mission.  What Farthing did - was impressive.   Good for him.   I have a dog.   I love my dog.

If they need it, we will adopt one or more of the dogs.   Rabies is all over Ontario, so that stupid quarentine restriction that the UK has, does not apply in Canada.  We could take one, any time, any way.

https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/Britain-Afghanistan-Animal-Charity/2021/08/29/id/1034183/

I honestly have to say, I am so freaking angry about this debacle and surrender in Afghanistan, that I could just spit hot nails.   To just bugger-off, and turn that whole nation back over to a bunch of evil terrorist scum - who actively assisted the folks who attacked New York City - the centre of World Trade - and the Pentagon - US Military Headquarters - in Washington, D.C., this is just the worst, most awful act of insane, over-the-top betrayal I have ever since in my lifetime. 

It is madness.   It is an act political insanity, economic destruction, and moral depravity.

The entire Western Cultural matrix - needs a complete reset.   We need to expunge the current fraudsters that dominate the politics of European and North American culture.   History shows very clearly - what works, and what does not.   We had solved the problem in Afghanistan - and then just threw away 20 years worth of hard effort!   Joe Biden and his gang should stand trial for direct betrayal of America and it's values.

Radical Islamic terrorism - as a political model - is now 100% back in business.  And it's Biden's fault, and the fault of the "cut-and-run" special Americans who supported this fool, and his gang. Biden's dementia, and the Democrat's arrogance, have been directly responsible for a catastrophic failure & terrorist mass-murder (over 100 Afghans were killed at the Kabul airport)  that did not have to happen.

[ Aug. 27, 2021 ] - The first preliminary copy of "Langdon Strategy: How to Invest in Stocks and Real Estate and Make Money" is now available -  The first person to order a copy of the "Langdon Strategy Book" gets a real  bonus!  They get to assist me in figuring out how to set up ONLINE PAYMENT on this website.   Seriously - right now, if you order the book, all that happens is that I get an email, telling me I have got an order!

Well, that is pretty useless, of course.  What has to happen, is a link to payment service (which is a secure link, of course) has to pop-up, so that the person ordering  the Book, can enter his or her VISA or MasterCard number, and pay for the Book, and my bank account gets credited.

So, I am actively trying to learn how to address this rather obvious requirement.  Years back, I actually set everything up with PayPal, and they even did transactions to and from my bank account for small amounts, to confirm the system worked and was set up correctly.  But I never actually used the system for several years, and PayPal just deleted everything.  Use it or lose it, I guess is the rule.  At one point, I tried to re-activate the payments acceptance thing I had set up, but the PayPal folks basically told me to go away.  So much for them.

It appears only Amazon, Google, Facebook and Apple actually make real money using the current online technical methodologies.  Everyone else looks to have been squeezed out, or run systems that rely on advertizing to generate revenue.   The porn sites are still in existence, and (I am told), they seem to be able to process credit card payments.   (I honestly don't know.  I have always fallen into the category of the guys who prefer to do it, rather than watch & read about it.  But clearly, it seems the porn-sellers know how to turn a buck.  Good for them, I guess...)

This is all quite an interesting outcome - and rather parallels what has happened in the automobile and aviation industries.   At first, there were *lots* of small players.  But over time, as the market and industry evolved, end-conditions are reached where a few big players get *all* the business, and the smaller operators are either absorbed, or made to disappear.   It's a tad disturbing.   

In order to offer the Book, I need to have some mechanism to get paid for the Book. This used to be easy, but now it is difficult, it seems.    Stay tuned.   I know it is possible, and I will determine what needs to be done, and then do it, so as to achieve this result!    :)

"When You Have Some Extra Money,  Everything Tastes Like Honey!" )

So, to get this simple thing done - I will have to do a deal with a Bank most likely, and then code the link stuff myself.  How hard can that be?  Once you are on the Bank's payment window, the bank-site will be handling the site security.

And, it means we will not even have your Visa number and secondary code numbers or your bank's payment details in our records.  All we will have is a tiny amount of money!  (We sincerely hope!)

Once the payment hits our bank account - we ship the Book.   And the first person to order the first copy of the Book gets to ask me detailed questions about our portfolios, and what they look like, and how they have performed thru time.   And that is useful information.   :)

Be our first "Client 0", and get an inside look at exactly what we are doing!  (It might help you get just a little bit rich...!)

[ Aug. 26, 2021 ] - PM:  THE BOOK IS NOW AVAILABLE - and it is IN THE ONLINE STORE, which is now active in a PROTOTYPE mode on this website.  Whoo Hoo! (About bloody time, eh?)  - Just click the "Online Store" menu option, on top line of website.  Thanks to all who order!!

[ Aug. 26, 2021 ] - Failed President, Political Judges, American Citizens to be Left in Afghanistan? - I never expected to see anything this completely crazy.  Joe Biden is running these "press conferences" (that are not conferences at all) where he walks into a room, reads some stuff about how he will satisfy the demands of bandit terrorists, and then leaves the room, showing everyone the view of his back.  It is simply bizarre and scary.   The USA is run by crazy nutjobs like 80-year-old Nancy Pelosi, (who seriously should be in a nursing home now), and Chuck Schumer, who is - well, we all know what he is, don't we?  He is a Leftist.

I never expected the USA to fracture into this strange "broken state" political model, quite so quickly, so completely.  It is weird and scary.    I actually love and respect the historical triumphs of the USA - despite how over-the-top the actions were sometimes     I can understand the harsh, cruel, logic of war.  War is tough, deadly  business, and you begin a war only when all other options for conflict resolution have failed.

But I cannot understand the bone-stupid mind-bending ignorance of Joe Biden, and the  Democrats of the  Washington Swamp, getting on their knees to the Taliban , and willing to  leave American citizens stranded, to be raped and killed by the enemy Taliban.   I have serious difficulty understanding the logic of this tragic, weird cowardice behaviour.   Joe  Biden will not even answer questions at his own fake "press conference" event, and it all just seems to me, very wrong.

This is just madness.   America "cuts and runs", and plans to leave its own people to get abused and risk being killed by a bunch of raghead terrorist bandit murderers?    What exactly is wrong with the Democrats of USA?   Have they been actually replaced by aliens or something?  This is like watching  a bad science-fiction, late-night drive-in B-picture - called "Aliens Take Over the World - Watch them destroy Western Culture in only SEVEN MONTHS!"  

It's just crazy.   If I was an American, I would be organizing a big protest - just so the rest of the world could learn that we have not all been neutered by the BIdenistas!   Protests are a waste of time - but at least you can communicate some truth.   Sometimes, that matters.

Don't take my word for it - read what Americans themselves are saying:

https://jimtreacher.substack.com/p/biden-sank-afghanistan-and-now-hes

And here is more disturbing News.   American "Judges" are attacking lawyers now - just like they do in Belarus...

https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/judge-disciplines-trump-lawyers/2021/08/25/id/1033796/

And it gets more insane...   I am not the only one who thinks that Joe Biden is a bogus fraud, and a buffoon, operated by remote control.   He won't even take questions - at his own "press conference".   Why do Ameicans stand for this?   This is not how it works.  You are all being defrauded  by what looks like a strange scheme.   This is just wrong.

I am not making up conspiracy pictures.  I don't even believe in any "conspiracy theory" nonsense. But I recognize stupidity and deception and dangerous "he-is-gonna-fly-the-plane-into-the-ground" lack of wisdom and ability when I see it - since I saw it in pretty much every environment I ever worked in - for too many years.   No-one ever calls in a consultant, when everything is running along smoothly.  So, all I ever saw, were problems and project disasters, and folks doing stuff that could (and did) blow up the business or agency.   It's just the nature of things.

Now, I am old, and I don't give a shit if I offend anyone.   We have to get past all this deception that seems to drive everything, everywhere now. 

We need - we must demand and insist upon - honest, open, true dialogue and "living-in-truth" public discussion about the nightmare problems we face in the near future - and fucking "Climate Change" is not one of them.  Radical, shit-for-brains religious hellmongering hatred and evil shit like the Taliban and ISIS are the future we face - crazy, cruel, ugly, evil-stupid political scams and political gangsterism, that will make Hitler and the old Nazis look like Florence Nightingale,by comparison.

Go watch some radical Islamic boys cut the heads off of some North European White girls they have just raped - and then take the graphic details of the horrible awful murders - which they filmed with their iPhones -  and then uploaded the whole thing to the social media sites.

Go watch that material, and tell me that it is Ok, to leave the women of Afghanistan to that - to be abused and degraded by the radical Islamic Taliban.   Nancy Pelsoi should be ashamed.  She betrays and disrepects women.  She is a cruel old, nasty witch of the worst kind.  The Democrats simply pass insane-stupid edicts, preventing property owners from removing tenants who refuse to pay their rent - at the same time as they begin the process to abandon the commitments America has made around the world.   These Swamp Democrats are doing all they can to enable and communicate irresponsible, incorrect human behaviour to the citizens of America, and the partners the USA has in other nations.    It's just sad and awful.

Islam is just another bad thing.   And "Radical Islam" is a wicked, enabling moral justification for the very worst, awful and most disgusting horrible behaviour that low-quality human creatures have ever engaged in.   "Radical Islam" is pure filth, a fraud wrapped in excrement, dumped into a ditch filled with urine, and then fished out and fed to people.  It is a horrific lie, used to kill innocent people, and bend the minds of the ignorant.  And it enables pure evil to walk freely thru the world again.  It is history running retrograde.

Sadly, this is the entire history of almost  ALL RELIGIONS. They start out talking about god and god-good-things, and they very soon, end up just being this ugly enabling social and psychological toolset, that allows and encourages the murdering of people in horrible, awful ways.

It would be best, to remove *ALL RELIGION* everywhere.  That will never happen, because people can be such pathetic superstitous fools, who desperately need to believe weird nonsense, to let them survive misfortune, and make them feel better.  HIstory shows this with absolute clarity.  And it does this in every culture, repeating this sad outcome in every society, everywhere in all of history.    Even the Buddhist philosophy of peace and enlightenment, gets used to enable the mental and emotional detachment a warrior-swordsman needs to have, to ensure victory in the bloody business of sword-fighting.

Despite this historical reality, we all need to try to move in that direction of "religion removal".  That is why the wise designers of honourable, good nations, create and insist upon, secular civil institutions and procedures to govern the operation of a State.  

Church and State have to be seperate, else the blood will run in the streets as people fight to the death about nonsense that is not even true or testable or real.   The State *MUST BE SECULAR*, or people will die like flies.   Europe, England, and then America learned this, and the Americans did the very best job of designing and building a State which was open and operational for all people, regardless of what foolish religious nonsense they believed.   This might be the greatest system design-success in all of human history. 

History shows secular States work well, and allow very diverse folks to live and work together in peace.   This is also why "religious" States are typically dominated by thieves and sadistic bandit criminals.   The "religion" nonsense enables always the very worst in human behaviour.

The great tragedy of Afghanistan, is that the place was well on it's way to something that was working.   And then America just pulled out everything, completely!   It was an ugly "rug-pull", which blew everything up, and it allowed the bad guys back in to take control.    We are certain, that there will be terrible, long-term, costs from this foolish, absurd action - and that as Sept. 11, 2001 demonstrated so clearly, these awful costs will not be paid just by the poor folks in the Middle East.   America has damaged itself - just as much as it has enabled great damage to occur in the collapsed State of Afghanistan.   The whole strategy is just wrong - a complete and foolish madness.

In the meantime, each of us can at least, think & study and learn.  And become skilled in what can help us drive the political changes that must take place.   All people in all nations now, are connected.  The "Malthusian" crisis that is coming, will not be the result of "Global Warming" or "Climate Change" nonsense.  If the sun is warming the planet more, there is nothing we can do about that.   But we can and we must uplift the corrupt, god-fraud damaged, failed-states of the world, lest we set up the pre-conditions for a world-wrecking series of accelerating conflicts.

In Afghanistan, there will be - soon - mass starvation.  It will *not* be the result of "Climate Change".   The place is basically a desert ecosystem, and it takes significant effort and a working social and political economy for anyone to live there, and operate farms there.  The needed irrigation projects require significant economic effort, social agreement and confidence in the future.   Farmers have to have honest, fair, available markets, they need to own their land, and be able to earn a surplus from working it.  With a bandit-run, god-fraud-religious kleptocracy in charge, most folks will focus their efforts on simply trying to get the hell out of the place.

It's not hard to predict the future for the poor, betrayed folks who will remain in Afghanistan.  It will involve sickness and poverty and death - either from lack of nutrition or from the violence that despair encourages.

This is a bad outcome - and it did not have to happen.    At the very least - an international UN Peacekeeping operation could have been established at Bagram Air Base, or something like that.  

The key fact here, is that the tragedy that will unfold now, in Afghanistan, will not be confined to that country alone.   The mass starvation and violent conflicts will spread.  We learned this from recent history, only 20 years ago - and I suppose we will now have to learn it again.  Does America benefit from this?  Does Israel benefit, as it's neighbours fall into horrible, constant conflict?   Perhaps.   And it is perhaps this, that explains the horrific failure of American policy we are seeing now?    This crazy nightmare scenario has maybe not happened by accident.

If one looks carefully, and sees both the Republicans and the Democrats crafting this surrender to the Taliban, and this engineered abandonment, the old legal question:  "Cui bono?"  ("Who Benefits from this?") comes quietly up.   Which political or group entity or nation benefits from this ugly outcome?   Were there dark forces, working to engineer this American defeat?  Or is this just a cluster-crash of ordinary failure?  

We think it can't just be failure - America is not generally this stupid, and detailed intelligence reports indicated the Afghan Army was reluctant to shoot and kill it's own people.   Biden and his boys were briefed on what would happen, once Bagram was abandoned in the night.  The Afghan Army might not fight. 

An Afghan soldier shooting at a Taliban fighter - might actually be killing a member of his own family.   Think about that for a minute.  Would American soldiers shoot and kill American rebels (Yes, they sure did in the Civil War  - but divisions were clear, and families geographically distant.)

Did the Israeli's really engineer this outcome, through their manipulation of Trump and his people, and then the Jewish-American Leftist wing of the Democrat Party?   We do not believe this.  It is too much of a stretch.   

But does anyone benefit from this?   Does Israel feel more secure, as it watches the Taliban retake Afghanistan?  Do the Russians?  The Chinese?  India? Pakistan?  Iraq?   Saudi's?   Maybe the Saudi's saw a higher oil price, if Afghanistan blew up and collapsed.   Did they manipulate Trump, and then offer something to the Democrats?    All this just seems too far-fetched also.  We don't believe it.

One fellow said simply (quoting an old saying): "Never attribute to malice, that which can be adequately explained by stupidity."    Perhaps that really is the truth.   But that's also hard to accept.

[ Aug. 25, 2020 - Aptanoon ] - (That's Korean-English) - Long hike to the highway mailbox, and then worked like a Roman slave, clearing weeds - and got the latest Quarterly from Power Corporation.   We hold their preferreds, and they have been a damn fine long-term investment.  Thru thick and thin, wars, terrorist-attacks, 5 (actually, I think it is now 6) market melt-downs, lethal death-to-millions viral pandemics, and the Decline of the American Empire - Quebec-based Power Corporation has paid it's dividends.   Bravo, guys.  You are demonstrating to the world how business is to be done.   Long-term, consistant, stable, profits, with a reasonable amount vectored back to your patient, contented shareholders.

Do not ever disrespect long-term, stable payments, by honest folks who run good businesses.   This is what has let us skate on thru the various shitstorms of ignorance, foolishness, and crazy, unstable global markets.   Buy property, have enough investments to pay your bills, and make goddamn sure you have some quality holdings that are yielding at least 5%, and are not doing it by burning down your capital (like most "schemes" generally do).

Do your own research, do your own thinking, make your own plans - and when it is time to act, don't pussy-foot around - make meaningful, significant bets that have high-probability of working over reasonable, medium-term horizons.  Expect volatility.  Trade, if you need to augment yield.  Done right, it can work well.  But be careful not to be out, when you should be in.

I should teach a course on this stuff - since I had to learn ALL of it myself (school was almost useless - from Grade 1 to the Master's program, truth be told.)   You *must* learn a bit of the math - that is the only thing that is really *true* in the universe - because the math will show you how the hell you can get rich.  Really.  Seriously.   I have these crazy notebooks, where I sat down and worked thru shit I didn't understand - and I just kept putzing and messing around with it until the penny would finally drop, and I could do the stuff forward - and then do it backward, and get to where I started.   I remember working out all the financial math, and figuring out why that silly "e" thing was what it was, and how compound-growth calculations, and internal-rate-of-return and bond-yield calculations could be done.    This math goes back to ancient Greece and the Greeks learned it from the Babylonians.   I seriously worked out - back in the 80's - price projections for the Dow Jones Industrial Average (the best index to look at, because it is small, and tractable, and mirrors a wise man's investment portolio - mostly because crap-companies are dumped, and good ones (that are making money) are added in.   That is the key.

My mid-1980's price projections are pretty much spot on, curiously - despite all the bullshit I read saying such analysis was bogus, not valid, etc.    My greatest and most serious mistake was NOT investing heavily in technology companies - since they always seemed overpriced to me.   I was way wrong on that, and I should have known better, since the disruptive stuff really can make money - like the aircraft and movie businesses were primed to, back in the 1920's.  The 1930's beat the shit out of investors, but it all came back, if you survived the World War 2.  By the 1950's and the 1960's, those early 1920's companies - if they survived - made all the old guys (and gals!) very wealthy. 

The investment process works - even if the shit-for-brains political people do not.   This is a curious key fact, that must be kept in mind.   Land - owned in a nation which has honorable and fair laws on land-tenure - is a good long term bet.   One branch of the famous Jewish Rothchild family of bankers - had all their money and holdings in France siezed by the Nazis.  After the war, this one fellow, Phillipe, got his land-holdings returned to him (since it was his property).  It was used to grow his grapes - his winery.  And here in 2021, I can go into the LCBO (the Ontario Liquor Control Board - yes, it really is called that - it's one of the biggest buying groups for booze in the world, since we all drink so damn much here) and buy Barron Phillipe Rothchild's "Mouton Cadet" red-wine, and it is good.   And the Barron recovered his fortune - by making and then selling good wine around the world.   

So, buy land in a nation which protects - clearly - the rights of property owners.    This is the single key fact which made the Roman Empire so successful.   Roman law defined and protected land-owners, and their rights to buy, sell, or hypothecate (mortgage) their property, and/or pledge it for collateral.  And the job of the Roman Army, was to enforce Roman law, and ensure bandit-armies were hunted down and destroyed.   Rome did fine, as long as that model could be maintained.  And when it could not, then it all fell apart - quickly - just like the Soviet "Union" did - which did 'not" offer any legal protection at all to land-owners.

It's amazing that the madness of "Communism" survived as long as it did.   If you live in a nation where government people can arbitrarily sieze citizen's property, and give it to themselves or their buddies, then you need to buy guns, create a rebel army, destroy the corrupt government, and repair the problem.  Otherwise, just buy property, and invest enough to pay your taxes on it.  

There is no question, that the world is tracking into a time of real *crazy* now.   But the investment process might continue to work just fine, as long as the corrupt governments do not try to fuck things up, for the benefit of the government elite. 

Be very, very worried, if "elites" have evolved in your country.   The Chinese people need to be very careful about what is happening inside their existing "government".   They - the really clever ones - really should be quietly organizing to ensure that the system they use to select their "Leaders" is something sane and sensible and honest.  What is trending in China now, is really dangerous.  More democratic methods would save them from a possible terrible future outcome.

I am coming near to the end of this "blog/diary" thing, as time is running out, I fear.

I have tried to put down useful info, that folks in the future can reference, if they want to understand some of the madness of the last 20 years.  The 21st century is shaping up to be pretty much the same sort of violent shitstorm of horror and foolishness, that the 20th century was - except with less real advancement.

But the 20th century, also brought space-travel, the "green-revolution" (which many do not even notice any more - wild, crazy improvements in crop yield and plant disease-resistance, which has allowed almost all the world to eat well, without hunger), and massive scientific advancement in every field.

The same degree of improvement is simply not evident now.   Now, we just make tiny changes, and minor improvements, typically involving more computer technology, and less operational reliability.    This is a *very* disturbing trend - for several reasons.

Get your vaccines.   The science supports the mRNA vaccine, and probably you will want to get a booster shot - maybe even annually.   

Invest well, and try not to die before you need to.  :)

[ Aug. 25, 2021 ] - Money for Nothing - or nothing for money?  We watch the USA in its strange and curious dance of political-economic self-deception, and can only think: "Oh my..."

The strange Democrats are dancing in the aisles, happy that they have just managed to vote to vote on spending of  another 3.4 trillion US dollars, that they don't actually have.   They view this as an accomplishment.   The only fellow talking any sense in the Washington weirdland now, is Kevin McCarthy, some Repubican fellow who says the Democrats should be ashamed.  (They should be more than that...)  (Hint: We are also dysfunctional here in Canada.  Our strange PM, has said on public televsion - during his own initiated election campaign - that he does not care about monetary policy.  i wish he would move to Zimbabwe.)

It is getting really crazy now - the money being "borrowed" (which actually maybe is just being printed using basic government financial trickery - sell bonds, and then have the Central Bank buy the bonds using funds the central bank just "creates" as book-entries on it's balance sheet) is crazy large.   The total government debt in the USA is roughly 30 *trillion dollars* .  That is a very big number. And the Democrats are planning to pump up the pork, and spend another - roughly  3.4 trillion dollars on welfare schemes and free money for poor folks, and some new bridges and roads.  MMT says "Nothing Matters!"   Maybe Malthus will render an opinion at some point.   :D

It's like there is no one in charge, who knows anything, anywhere.   It's really pretty weird.

And our good stocks that went down yesterday - on very good earnings news - are now all catching strong bid today - and are comfortably up.   Very strange times.  But, it all seems to be ticking along, not too badly.  :)

[ Aug. 24-25, 2021 ] - Terra Incognita - I watch GameStop zoom up dover $45 to close more than $210 per share.  That is a 27.85% upmove on stock in a money-loser company.  And AMC was bid up $7.47 to $45.25/shr - again, a money-losing operation (but now with no debt, so maybe this can be justified?)   Meanwhile, I have a little BNS, which reported $2.5 billion *profit* for 3 months, ended June 30th, declared a dividend of almost a dollar a share ($0.90, actually), and reported $2.01 in earnings per share - with something like a 90% improvement  compared to last years (awful, pandemic) quarter.  The stock tanked from a slight uptick over yesterday (high was 80.64), to close at 79.60, a fall of $0.63 on the day.  All ratios are improving, the business is booming, I bank there, and I just borrowed a whack of cash at over 4.00%, and so have many, many others, mortgages and business loans are up, and PCL ratio has improved to 24 basis points on the quarter.  (PCL ratio is provision for credit losses, as a percentage of total net loans and acceptances - the PCL ratio is a measure of risky business - you want it low and falling.  The BNS PCL ratio decreased 112 basis points, to 24 basis points, which seems to me, to be pretty fucking not bad at all.  

But I have to express some concern, watching this stupid US shit fly to the fucking moon, while our various conservative, old-bugger's portfolios actually *fall* in value, when good goddamn results are printed by the companies we are holding.  It's just a bit twisted, but I suspect it is just good old market dynamics - buy the rumor, and sell on the news.   I should know better, and be trading this shit more actively, but right now, I was not.  My mistake, I guess.  We are doing ok, but everyone else is printing cash, it seems.   A bit weird.

Read this shit, if curious (the Reddit feed re. GME).  It's pretty hilarious...   Kids writing shit like "Boss makes a dollar, I make a dime.  That's why I buy GME on Company Time."   Can't argue with that, can you?  ( -- Technical Note:  I have twice inserted a URL link to  the Aug.24, 2021 Reddit page for GME discussions.  It is educational to just page thru and view the posted comments.  Caesar understood these folks quite well.  But I think the operators of my website service, are maybe filtering this URL perhaps?  It just seems to disappear..  This is my third attempt to insert the URL link.  -- )

https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/pahgo/rgme_megathread_for_tuesday_august_24_2021/

The Reddit/Robinhood brigade really kicked our asses today - no question.  "Fucking-crazy" beats "Old-men-trying-to-do-the-right-thing" all the time now.   Ya gotta give "crazy" it's due, since it is ticking along pretty good.  It's like watching those fucking rag-head gangsters in Toyota pickup trucks, kick all the American and Western embassy-idiots out of Afgoofistan, while dictating the terms of the evacuation airlift, and the mechanics of the 'Murican's complete surrender.

Fuck, you don't need analysts to invest, and you don't need nuclear weapons and aircraft carriers to win major wars.  You need Reddit for investment advice, and Toyota pickup trucks and some shipping containers full of AK-47s and ammo, and a willingness to just shoot-to-kill anyone who opposes you - and not care - and time and a place to just hang-tough for 20 years.   Does anyone actually know that the Afghanistan Government Army took over 60,000 casualties during the last 20 years?    The Afghans  basically had their own Vietnam War, right outside their house,  in their own streets - for 20 fucking years.  And then suddenly, the American military fucks off, and takes all the maintenance and aircraft and modern air-support with them, and sneaks out like cowardly thieves in the dark-of-night, and the shit-for-brains thumpers in the US disrespect the Afghans for not shooting at the armed, evil Taliban, whom the **AMERICANS** have just surrendered to?    That is pretty insane.

If you're too much bummed out about defeat of Western Culture and the good old USA, you can look at really pretty Russian girls, with their clothes coming off.  It's  theraputic - and there is high quality photography, with tasteful, tasty images.  [Images approved by "Hetro-Canada", and the Federal National Department of Rigid Affairs]

https://supermodelssite.wordpress.com/2017/05/02/julia-yaroshenko-by-alisa-verner/

This Afghan failure and American surrender is just crazy weird.   It is so insane, that is is going to change the course of world history - even if folks don't see it yet.  It was just a crazy weird ending to a not completely unsuccessful nation-builting exercise.   Trump and Biden got weird, and did a nutty thing, like crazy old coots sometimes do.    And I predict that it is gonna get - well, even more weird, in the coming near future.  Really, really weird.  The weird are gonna do more than just turn pro, this time.

Oh, Hunter S. Thompson, we miss you bad.  I remember reading your shit in RollingStone, and then Tom Wolfe's "The Electric Kool-Aid Acid Test" -  it was being taught in English class in Grade 9, I think at my "high" school (which, as it happens, was pretty fucking high, as I recall...)   So, I am OK with weird.  Weird has been a constant element of the zeitgeist for all my life.   

But I think maybe that - oh, Major Major Weird might be coming.    We are all gonna be in some kind of global Catch-22 maybe - or maybe Catch-22 meets William Gibson -  and their love-child is running the big Wintermute computer in orbit, immersed in a vat of chicken-entrails, trying to live forever as large mass of human neural tissue?   (This actually is right and truly possible - right now -  and has been done last month on a small scale.)  Wintermute wants to do a Forbin-project on the world, and reduce humans to - well, what we are seeing now - silly creatures who no longer think clearly.

They're trying to tell us that Climate Change is a problem.  But the truth, is - it's the radical shit-crazy change in the political climate that is going to get us all nuked.   We can handle a hot planet - but we might not survive a World-War III against a badly weakened, demoralized America.    Seriously.   That open Southern Border  (the "Southern Reach"?), and that crazy ugly defeat in Kabul - I feel like its 406, at year's end, and the Rhine is frozen, and the army seems to be not actually manning the posts.  You're at your Latifundia in Gaul, you've managed to pay your taxes in grain (no one has any cash, since it is all buried), and you drop by the local garrison, to talk to your old friend, Biggus Diccus, and you find the garrison buildings empty.  

And you think:   "O merda..."

[ Aug. 24, 2021 ] - Civilization Really Is Under Attack - For some time, I have felt this - and dismissed it as a silly idea.  But with what I see now,  I now think it is true.  Our Western cultural values - they are under real and serious assault.   What we believe, what our parents fought and some died for, is under threat.  

This is a *REALLY* good essay about how civilization is being actively damaged.  It's written by a fellow named Mark Steyn, who is at a University in Michigan, called Hillsdale.  Please read it, as it is solid, pure wisdom.  Rare stuff...

https://imprimis.hillsdale.edu/increasingly-unrecognizable-civilization/

My folks had a good friend, whose husband was killed in WW2 and when my parents died, she remained a friend to us.  She was a was kind and good person, who actually saved me from assault and destruction by the "Educational Bureaucracy."  I was going to be deemed a "stupid kid" and streamed into the grade-school (and high-school) programs for stupid kids.   (I got bad marks in grade school and high-school.  I didn't start getting "A"'s, until Grade 13 Physics, and then University, where things started making sense.)

Gretchen was a teacher-supervisor, and did an IQ test on me when I was in Grade 3 or 4 or around then.  (I didn't even know what it was at the time), and her report indicated I had this genius IQ, which I thought was a comedy result, since I felt confused and mystified by the madness - pretty much all the time.   I thought I was just  bit thick, but I tried to play the game. 

I would ask the teachers "Does Neatness count?" and they would look at me like I was a loon.  They would ask me to explain, and I would describe how I was marked down for doing messy writing in a test - by some silly Grade 3 "Teacher" who was a bit of a buffoon - and I would explain that if "Neatness counted", then I would have to accept lower marks, because I could not write fast - and would not produce proper exam results, in the limited time I was given to answer the questions.  But if "Neatness" did not count, then I could write fast, and provide a proper answer to the various questions, and earn higher marks.  (They still taught cursive writing and "penmanship" - which actually were really good things to teach kids, as it turns out.)

Teachers in Grade 3 and 4 and 5 at public school, did not expect to have to deal with these sort of questions from their child students.  Most were simply not intelligent people, and were only in the "teaching" profession, because they were slackers, and it had high-wages, with lots of free-time, and all your summer available for vacation.   They were lightweights, mostly.    But not all. 

Some were quite good and helpful.  ( I had a really great teacher in Grade 6, who was interested in nuclear technology, and offered optional instructions on the physics of nuclear weapons - during lunch hours.  He was a curious fellow, but very helpful.   Once my parents asked what I was learning in school, and I produced this big notebook full of all these detailed drawings I had made, indicating levels of radiation,and degree of blast-damage expected at various distances from "ground-zero", and they were speechless, as I recall.   I had to explain it was really the only school-stuff I was interested in.   Blast damage of course would be expected to be very different, depending on bomb-yield - in megatons - and so I had to have these "expected level of damage" drawings - for the various urban enviroments - based on expected explosive yield of the device.   So I had an interesting notebook, for a kid in Grade 6.

I remember another silly teacher, trying to teach us arithmetic in Grade 1 or Grade 2,, and she was talking about apples falling off of a table.  She made some comment, critical of some kid who got a wrong answer, and said more apples could not fall off the table than were on it.  I put up my hand,and said: "Well maybe if there are 3 apples, and 4 fall off, then the table has negative one apples, because the top of the table is owed one apple."  

But I thought I was seriously stupid, because so little at school made any sense at all.  In retrospect, it was actually quite hilarious.    I honestly - no kidding - realized that the school-stuff was really interferring which my learning.  We were supposed to be reading some shit-stupid nonsense, and I was holding the book (a DIck and Jane book,or some silly workbook where you were supposed to do some exercise) and I was reading my own book, behind it.  The teacher came by and made a mean, stern face and said "What have you got there?".  I said, "A book."  "Let me see it!"  (She would take comic books away from kids, if they read them in school).  I was reading an English prose translation of Homer's "The Iliad and the Odyssey", a fat hard-cover thing I had got from my Mom, because  I kept bugging her about Greek and Roman mythology.

See, I read the Myths that formed the basis for Western Culture, and all that stuff made "perfect" sense to me, unlike the stupid crap I was getting in the annoying school I had to go to - where mostly they seemed to want you not to talk in class - and I was a bit of a blabber-mouth, so I was always in trouble.    The teacher took my copy of Homer, but gave it back later at day's end, which was good, since I would have had to go thru her desk and get it that way, otherwise.  It was a damn good story.   I think I was at part, where Ulysses nails the cyclops, Polyphemus,  in the eye, with a spear., and has his men escape by hanging on to the underside of the sheep, that are sent out to pasture each day.  

I had already read about the Trojan War, and I was too young to understand exactly why Achilles was so pissed-off at Agamemnon, about having to give up the slave-girl Briseis.    I was more interested in the problem of Achilles' Heel, and wondered why the heck he didn't wear an armor-plated sandel or boot or something.  But the Horse of Troy was interesting.  (When the Trojans wheeled the "gift horse" into the city, why did no one think to take a look at what was inside it?)  The Iliad raised so many questions.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Briseis

Of course, Briseis was a stunningly beautiful princess - maybe almost the equal of Helen.  And apparently she was fond of Achilles, in that way young girls are fond of big, strong violent guys who dominate all around them.  Real chemistry between them, probably.  So Agamemnon's actions were both abusive and wrong on several levels, and also, very unwise from a strategic objective.   Homer spun a very good yarn.  He told of real truth.  And the sea, it really is "wine dark" at night.

I found school annoying and it distracted from the things I wanted to do, learn, and study about.

But eventually, all the low-quality stupid teachers  grew old and died, and I moved on.  What saved me - and other idiot-savants (?) or seriously confused kids like me - were the old traditional values that Western Civilization placed on maverick outcast folks, like me and my insane (high-IQ?) nutty friends.   Western cultural values have a *very* long tradition of tolerating crazy kids in school, and there was room for silly fuckwits like me, and my cohorts.  We were well tolerated, and were passed along even though we were documented "C" students.  This curious toleration of mavericks and extreme folks is a big part of the Western cultural tradition, surprisingly. 

This was good.  Western culture was - and is - a very good thing.   Both German and English school systems actually had ways of tolerating crazy kids who actually really *wanted* to learn stuff, and had trouble with people saying no to them.  There is always a good teacher, who secretly slips you the key to the locked library, it seems.

But I fear we are killing Western Culture.   I suspect I would not stand a ghost of a chance in the modern schools.  I would have been zoned-out, expunged, and destroyed, in today's woke-stupid world.  I would say politically incorrect things, and simply get crushed by the requirements of conformity.

So, I worry about this.  And we all have reason to worry.  "Wokeness" and other weird-shit Nazi-Left-Fascist nonsense will force an insane and dangerous conformity upon us all - and it starts with the disinformation being fed to the kids.  The world is violent and dangerous, and kids need to learn this key fact early, so they can arm themselves with real knowledge, not the santized nonsense foolish drivel that is promoted in modern schools.

I am not alone worrying about the madness that is attacking us.  The insane and horrific shit-show of foolishness and hyper-bad policy unfolding in Afghanistan - right exactly now - is a perfect example of how this trend to shit-stupid, insane, anti-civilization thinking, has leaked into the minds of senior administrators and lawmakers who now run the USA - and elsewhere.

Really, please read this article - about the little things that drive how the big stuff gets done.  This Steyn fellow has hit on something very real, and very important:

https://imprimis.hillsdale.edu/increasingly-unrecognizable-civilization/ 

The world is becoming truly silly, and we are seeing what happens when the unwise elites unwind the lowlevel operational characteristics of our Western culture.   Our civilization starts to break.

We need to re-think everything.  We need to remember what we are, and what we built.  We need a new political picture.  And the people who have painted the one we are being told we must use now, they absolutely must be removed from their positions.

Is this below, a political video??  The music is catchy (we should understand why, and study how catchy music is used by propaganda developers), and also learn to see the sub-text.   But this video below, celebrates Western European culture, civilization, and the people.

https://www.bitchute.com/video/fzQiOYQ804pq/

Western Civilization is perhaps worth fighting for.  It really seems to be currently under very direct attack, by forces from within and without.   There are various solutions to this problem, but first, we have actually admit that the threat is there.

And it is not all bleak.   In some areas, people are *re-discovering" their roots, and the how and why of their existence.   This is a good thing,  Again, music offers some assistance in the study of what we have lost, and what - if we work a bit - might be regained.   Check out the LeBlanc family, and the amazing old French-Acadian songs they discovered and have re-created.   It's quite magical:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=27pja5O3-0Y

Charming music, with almost a  late-medieval feel to it.  It is a no-audience,  2020 pandemic barn-concert, made 11 months ago.  Quite well done.

And yes, we remain long, all in.

[ Aug. 23, 2021 ] - We Are in Agreement with Tony Blair.  An Imbecilic Slogan has Dictated US - and Western World -  Foreign Policy.  This is Madness.  Joe Biden Must Go.  Trudeau Must Go.  - There is going to have to be a completely new politics created.   We need to get rid of Trudeau in Canada, and Joe Biden in the USA.  We have to clean the lie-filled, dirty "house-of-government" in both countries, and repair the astonishing damage that these lightweight, rule-by-slogan populist fraudsters have caused.  

Tony Blair, the ex-Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, has written a very good document, which should make it clear why this repair exercise is so absolutely necessary.   Don't waste time reading the mainstream media "story about the story" - just read Blair's original document, here:

https://institute.global/tony-blair/tony-blair-why-we-must-not-abandon-people-afghanistan-their-sakes-and-ours

Our take on this, is that we have to get rid of these smiling, lightweight goofs that now dominate our political scene.  Blair was a Lefty, but when the chips (and the Twin Towers!) were down, he made the right decision, and Britain did the right thing.   The necessary cleaning of the Middle East to remove terrorist enablement zones was undertaken, and over time - (and with Obama's "surge") the problems in Afghanistan were addressed.  The Taliban were removed.  When in power, they were actively trying to acquire nuclear weapons from Russian operatives, as well as being engaged in active terror-campaigns inside Afghanistan, to remove any non-Islamic groups or even historical evidence.  The murderous, fanatical Taliban even blew-up ancient Buddhist statures, inside their own nation!  This curious destruction of such a valuable element of Earth's cultural heritage proved that they were not - and could not ever be - considered any sort of "government" of Afghanistan, or anywhere else.

To allow this ugly, sadistic terrorist collective to re-take an entire, modernizing nation, just because of a stupid, mindless slogan about "forever wars", is the height of political madness.

https://nypost.com/2021/08/23/taliban-issue-death-sentence-for-afghan-translators-brother/

Biden should be removed.  He is unfit to be Commander-in-Chief of the United States military.  He is making USA into a failure-nation - a nation of the defeated.   This needs to be prevented from happening.   America must not lose confidence in itself, and the World must not lose confidence in America, and it's ability to bring down the bad guys.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/2021/08/23/stop_pretending_biden_is_fit_to_lead_550012.html

We might be able to fix Canada's broken government here (an election has been called, and we might be able to put Erin O'Toole, the Tory leader,  in to replace that Trudeau character)  - but it is much more critical that the repairs be carried out in Washington.   The Democrats need to be removed, and their bogus, slogan-driven, populist political madness, needs to be ended.   Their actions are doing damage to the Western world. 

If we had had a proper Government here, the USA might have been able to ask Canadians to go in as part of a UN Peacekeeping Force, to maintain some sort of viable civil structure in Afghanistan, rather than turning the whole place back over to terrorist Islamic fanatics.  But that Trudeau person, took Canada completely out of the fight, which was, of course, a very bad decision.

As Blair pointed out - no military person had been killed in a combat operation for 18 months.  Afghanistan was actually ticking along not too badly.   It was not great - but it was reasonably stable and actively improving.  But once USA abandoned Bagram, and surrendered to the Taliban, and began the process of actively running away to meet an arbitrary end-of-month deadline,  all the work of 20 years was thrown away.   This is madnress.  And the body count at the airport evacuation nightmare continues to grow:

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2021-08-23/the-latest-attackers-kill-afghan-soldier-at-kabul-airport

I never expected to be in complete agreement with Tony Blair.  Curious times.

Perhaps a "National Emergency" could be declared, and the Democrats who want to save their party (and the world)  - along with some Republicans who realize that some action must be taken - could craft special legislation to replace Biden.   They might even ask Barack Obama to return temporarily, and take over as President again.  The man actually has experience, he is intelligent, he is still young and healthy in body and mind, and his return would show the world that America has the impressive ability to self-correct.    The Republicans would probably prefer him to inexperienced Kamala Harris.   It might take a special constitutional amendment, and quite possibly Obama would say "No way!" to the offer.   But America should really craft some sort of process, which would allow for the selection of a specific person to replace an obviously failing President - other than just have the VP take over.  

Something has to be done.

[ Aug. 22, 2021 ] - Get Your Vaccine.  Don't Be Stupid.  - Stupid just dies, when it does not need to.   Lower respiratory infections are wicked dangerous - and Covid-19 is an almost perfect lethal virus.  The virus has two really magically awful methods that it uses to bind to the ACE cells in human lungs - and then invade those cells, and make copies of itself.  This virus action kills the damn lung cells, and you end up lying on the floor, unable to breathe.   This is a very bad outcome.  Your lungs fill with fluid, in a last, desperate attempt to save themselves from the viral attack, and you die.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/phil-valentine-radio-host-who-regretted-vaccine-skepticism-dies-covid-n1277395

We don't want to gloat over some radio-broadcaster who died.  But going on the radio, and talking nonsense to discourage folks getting the Covid-19 vaccine is almost a criminal act.  It is wrong.  People die from stupid.   Please do not be stupid.

Stupid kills.   And Covid-19 kills.  

But this death-by-stupid outcome can be avoided, if you get multiple mRNA vaccine shots.  Our group got both Moderna and Pfizer/Biotech shots.   These probably saved us.  Once vaccinated, you may still catch Covid.  It's a wicked, perfect virus. But if you get the vaccine, the Covid illness is mild - like a flu or a nasty cold.  Or you may have really mild symptoms, but still test postive for Covid-19 - like the Governor of Texas did, for example.

I honestly believe Covid-19 was the result of some serious, focused, bio-engineering of the bat-virus, and that the modified bat-virus jumped to an intermediate host, probably mice, and that this is how the damn virus mutated, and got out of the Wuhan lab.   The Chinese just missed how crazy difficult it is to keep mice out of secure facilities.  We get mice in our cars, our trucks and yes, our lab.   Their tiny poop prove they were there.  We set traps, and catch them - and only recently discovered the very tiny space (around an electrical input conduit), where they were getting in.  They also crawled up a drain-pipe for a sump-pump in the basement.  We set traps and caught them there, also. 

Mice are probably the most dangerous mammal in existence, due to their ability to spread lethal viruses that kill h\umans.  Read the details of the "Hantavirus".  Breathing dust from mouse-shit can kill you, and this was all known and understood, long before SARS and Covid-19 happened.

We think Covid-19 virus (SARS-2-Cov) jumped from Wuhan bats to mice in the "secure" lab (bats and mice have really similar bio-physiology), and the same mice transfered the virus to the live-animal market, next door to the lab.  That put the virus in the wild, and since the virus is an aerosol vector ( you catch it by breathing), the animals and people at the live-animal market got infected with the mouse-version of the bat-virus.

We suspect some "eager-beaver" worked hard to take this bat-virus, and run "gain-of-function" work on it, to make it double-dangerous to humans.  All the virology labs were doing this sort of work, so China's actions here were nothing special.  We need to stop worrying about blame, and just focus on process - and what should be done.  We cannot lock-down the world.  Lockdowns are unwise, and economically too costly to sustain.  This virus travels on the wind.  And it zooms through cotton masks, like water flows thru a chain-link fence.  Understand this.

This virus also has an impressive ability to mutate.  It seems to get *stronger* over time (more lethal to humans) rather than weaker.  This is curious, and suggests annual vaccination *boosters* will be needed - just like we are already doing to deal with the traditional influenza risks. 

Get your vaccine.  Demand that it be made available.   We've taken it, and the side effects are minor - a sore arm, and sometimes, people can get itchy spots.  The itchy hives that one of our people reported, might not even be due to the vaccine - it could be unrelated allergy reaction to something else.  We are in a rural environment, and we have spiders, crop-dusting aircraft spraying for Gypsy Moths that are killing our trees, and mosquitos (which are known to carry several virus agents now - including encephalitis and West Nile virus)..

https://www.sutter-yubamvcd.org/mosquito-borne-encephalitisencephalomyelitis

So, in an uncontrolled world, the events and results people report after vaccination, may not even be related to the vaccine. 

Human life is short.  Living-in-the-world  is an exercise in risk-management.  You will die eventually - but you do not need to be stupid, and make it happen sooner than necessary!

Arm yourself with knowledge, and then take action to protect yourself and those around you that you care about.  Demand access to the mRNA vaccine (Moderna or Pfizer - both work), and make sure you get two shots, no more than 8 weeks apart.   You will also need annual booster shots, probably which will be re-formulated slightly, to address the mutation of the Covid-19 virus.

The one good thing, from this crazy-dangerous "gain-of-function" research work that was being done in the virology labs from the 1990's until around 2015, is that we now have a good working knowledge of how the virus bio-chemistry and physics seems to operate.  This is how Moderna and Pfizer/Biotech were able to create the vaccine so quickly.

If you want to talk about something on conservative radio stations - talk about how it might be time to just get the FDA out of the drug-approval process.   Just to keep the world alive and operating, we probably need to allow *MUCH* more rapid timelines for drug development.

Informed people, should simply be able to sign waivers to obtain experimental drugs, and just bypass all the government bureaucratic obstructionism of the Drug Approval Agencies. 

Almost all powerful, effective drugs, will have risks of lethal side-effects.  All medical service delivery persons understand this.  Doctors have understood this for centuries.   Lately, the FDA seems to be most concerned with blocking access to, and preventing the usage of, necessary and needed new medicines.   No medicine is ever "100%" safe - and yet this seems to be the absurd level of safety that the Agency people seek to require.   This just means it can take 20 years to get a new drug approved, and into wide-spread usage, and that drug companies are encouraged to work on minor modifications  of existing, approved drugs, rather than develop the new medicines that clearly work - but are being blocked from being made available to sick people, by Government Agency efforts.

I personally believe powerful Agency entities like the FDA should just be ended.  They do more damage by obstructionism and access-blocking, than they provide benefit to people.   The doctors and scientists and drug companies are quite capable of running double-blind experiments and assessing drug efficacy and safety, without an abusive "Big Brother" government Agency overseeing them.  Doctors and drug companies that screw-up, and kill people with bad actions or bad products, will be quickly discovered.   The current drug "approval" process simply slows drug development, and prevents sick people from getting access to new medicines and technologies that can vastly improve or even save their lives.

We honestly believe - that the very best regulation - is no regulation at all.   "Regulation" simply creates an army of overpaid, abusive government Agency people, who make entire lifetime careers out of crafting bad policy, doing poor work, preventing innovation, offering bad solutions, and working diligently to prevent any change or improvement or enhancements from being made.    Agency operatives work primarily to protect the interests and power-bases of the Agency-entities which employ them.    The FDA is the Agency which prevents new drugs from coming to market, just like the "Treasury" is the Agency which destroys the value of money, and creates massive levels of Government debt.   

If conservative radio talkers want to talk about something - let them get their vaccines - (developed by for-profit drug companies) - and talk about the bloody "Agency" problem.  

Governments create these "Agency" things which are usually the worst possible solutions to the problems that confront us all.   It is actually so awful, it is comical.  

The creation of every "Agency" to take on a specific task - ends up creating an entity that ensures the problem will *never* be solved, lest the Agency itself would disappear.   The "Agency" actually magnifies and expands the conditions which cause the problem, and as the problems grow bigger (because of the actions of Agency operatives), the Agency obtains more resources (money) so it can expand and grow more powerful.

The Covid-19 vaccines were created quickly, and work well.  But the Agency operatives around the world, did all they could to assault the economics of the process (the drugs had to be offered for free to everyone.  Why?   Why was that a requirement???), and they had to be "proven safe", which is impossible, and everyone knows that.  Nothing is "safe".  All actions carry risk.

The Regulatory Agency efforts slowed (and continue to slow), access to various medicines which have been clearly proven to help patients suffering from Covid-19.

The  FDA should simply be removed from the process.  They offer nothing other than obstruction and nay-saying.   Let the scientists and doctors and patients make the decisions on what drugs can be used for various illness conditions, and get these government Agency clowns completely out of the process.   Agency restrictions offer no real value, and create significant unneeded cost.

Let the conservative radio talkers, talk about this Agency problem - after they get their Covid-19 vaccine shots, so they don't suffer needless early death.

[ Aug. 21, 2021 ] -  Biden, Joe, Has To Go- And the Democrats in Washington are unfit to be the Government of the United States.   These strange creatures are assuming that no one will give a shit about another massive American defeat and spectacular failure of US Government polcy - by 2022, when another "election" will be held.

Biden specifically stated that al Qaeda is "gone" from Afghanistan, and then the Pentagon admits - a very short time later - that al Qaeda has a "presence" in Afghanistan.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/pentagon-admits-al-qaeda-has-a-presence-in-afghanistan-minutes-after-biden-says-they-are-gone.amp

Well, it might be true that Americans will not care about Afghanistan by 2022 "elections".   But maybe not.   Americans don't like to eat shit, anymore than they like to have it thrown at them by CNN and Reuters reporters.  And no one on the planet likes to have oily-mouth lying politicians lie to them right at their face.

If there is another major terror attack, Biden will have to resign, and hopefully take that Harris woman with him.   I read these bizarre, insane news stories - no one actually talks about what is right and proper and sensible - all is just political handicapping - will this terrible, stupid strategy work, or will it fail.   The people who wrote this bad Reuters article, are asserting that the news from Afghanistan is being "weaponized".  What an astonishing load of rotting nonsense!  The image to the right illustrates a weapon.  Information about the fiasco and tragedy in Afghanistan is just that - information.  Just because the information is not santized by some Leftist reporters, does not make it "weaponized".  

Maybe ask what Angela Merkel, a woman who has a PhD-in-Physics, and is leader of Germany (soon to retire), and who actually runs a real country.   She is disgusted and saddened, I suspect, from what I have read.   The entire American involvement in the Middle East looks like it has been a spectacular, and over-the-top failure, from where we sit.  Merkel has publically indicated Germany will now be taking a more independent approach in its defense efforts, given this spectacular, unfolding American failure.  Sounds like a wise decision, to us.

Maybe Americans can be media-drugged, and given free-money to buy booze, and told a bunch of clever lies by dishonst, Leftist media organs, so that enough of the stupid ones can be made to *forget* about Joe Biden's "Great Failure".   But maybe not.  Maybe Americans are not all stupid, and maybe they will have the long-memories that betrayed people sometimes have.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/bidens-afghanistan-policy-counts-issue-fading-importance-war-weary-americans-2021-08-20/

The fraudsters who pump out the drivel that passes for "news" now, might be right.  Everyone might forget about Afghanistan, and the brutal Taliban rule, and the horrific scenes of people dropping from American Air Force evacuation aircraft - running away from their sad defeat.

But maybe not.   I personally do not think so.  The intense revulsion and disgust one feels, is  quite beyond even the tragic sadness of the Saigon evacuation (which I remember, despite being quite young).

This is not about Trump (he is gone).   This is not about politics, and election-planning.  This is about a massive and extreme failure to simply do the right thing.

America used to be about doing the right thing.  When the Iraqi's, under Saddam Hussain, invaded Kuwait, the Americans, under the first George Bush (the good one), did the right thing, and shot the shit out of the abusive, murdering thugs, as the Iraqi army cowards tried to run back to Iraq.  It was the right thing to do.  Kuwait was freed, and Iraq was hit hard, as it should have been. 

But this tragic surrender to the Taliban, and then this great haste to run away and let people die at the hands of terrorist vermin - this is just not the right goddamn thing to do.  Will America just *forget* this?  They will need a lot of booze and drugs and intense media lie-machining to make this "forget" thing happen, I suspect.

I read this Reuters story, and thought: "The reporters at Reuters have no fucking clue, do they?"   This  planet is the size of a tiny marble - a microscopic tiny little ball of wet crap hanging in space.   We simply cannot have murdering thug asshole bastards like the terrorist Taliban running an entire modern nation, complete with modern American technology left behind for them.   This horrible nightmare will begin for the poor betrayed folks left behind - and none of this bullshit had to happen.  It is just so fucking wrong, that it is beyond belief.

Sure - maybe those "voters" (who swung the 2020 election for the Democrats), will "forget" about all this - and the media support machinery will do it's best to drug them with fucking stupid pro-sports bullshit and "news" stories about Hollywood starlets showing off their vaginas and breasts, and stupid garbage like that - and maybe the media-duped voters will vote for the "Democrats" again.   And maybe small yellow pigs will grow little pink wings, and fly out of Joe Biden's arse.   Maybe.

America did the WRONG THING, in surrendering to the Taliban.   This was just a bad, bad idea.   So we need to change the program.   We need new leaders who can actually do the right goddamn things, again.  Trump did the deal, and Biden ran the program - both are yesterday's men, and need to go golfing, and stay there.  They did the wrong thing.  Afghanistan could have been turned over to a UN peacekeeping force, and a working civilian administration could have been maintained.  But to surrender to the Taliban, was a terrible and tragic and grotesque error.  And surrender they did.  Once the Americans failed to turn over Bagram Air Base to the Afghan military, it was clear what the plan was.  The Afghan military folks knew the Taliban would come, take control, and be the government again, so they wisely chose not to engage.   The American betrayal meant that they had no choice but to leave the country however they could.

Turning over Afghanistan to the Taliban, was the wrong thing to do.  It means more war, and more terror plots and more regional and international conflict.  It's was the wrong decision.  We will get ISIS all over again.   This is just insane.  We have to change the program.

It is possible that an entire new process and political mechanism will have to be constructed, since the current one simply does not work correctly.

Here is a prediction:  Biden will have to resign.  The Democrats will try to put that Harris women in as the President, but this will not likely be accepted by many.  The elections in 2022 will result in a swing back to the Republicans - and the role of the "President" will be weakened. Afghanistan will turn into a giant version of one of those German slave-labour, concentration-camps (much as Eritria has), and people will flee - with evidence and stories of the horrors being done.   Every horror story will be owned by the corrupt American Democrats - who will be painted as the "Cut-and-run" Party.    The Republicans will have to come up with a plan, which will probably involve Europeans and Russians - moving into the place, to establish a UN-backed civilian Administration - after a *very intense* no-rules war, which will see most Afghan cities destroyed, and hundreds of thousands killed.  The (secret) objective will be to keep the cities in ruins, and the country impoverished, so that terrorists are kept weak and poorly armed.  It will be an engineered tragedy - much as we are seeing now.

But none of this will have had to have happened.  

We seem to care about the Uighurs in China - but not about the Afghans.   This is just so absurd - but what really has happened here, is a massive American defeat.

I just cannot see this being something that Americans will get behind, and be accepting of, for the simple reason, that it is just so wrong.  It's all just wrong.

[ Aug. 20, 2021 ] - The Machine in the Ghost - We observe with increasing sense of curiosity, the "Long March of Foolishness" which seems to be underway everywhere now.  People everywhere, are becoming both stupid and crazy, it appears.  Lots of folks have lots of theories why this is happening, and the poets and artists have warned us about this for years.  But occasionally, little bursts of sanity are evident.  These are usually related to money - because people actually THINK about money issues (sometimes, mostly...)

Interesting Readings (while we think about Apple being broken up...)

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/chart-evolution-standard-oil/

https://www.eff.org/deeplinks/2021/02/what-att-breakup-teaches-us-about-big-tech-breakup

Meanwhile, back at the Ranch...

JP Morgan and Wells Fargo have registered a Bitcoin fund - and the value of Bitcoin as I key this, has popped nicely to $46,971, up over $2700 per coin, on this news.  Bitcoin might prove to be better "money", than money is.  This is simply because of what it is, and how it works.

Mr. Neel Kashkari's comments look simply dishonest, don't they?  What is even more comical, is that he really may actually be correct - but if Bitcoin is bogus scam-stuff, then so are US Dollars.  Maybe all "dollars" are bogus, right?   Take a bank note, hold it in your hand, and look at it.   It's just a piece of paper or plastic.  It's a legal document, except it doesn't even have any formal assurance that it can be contractually exchanged for anything whatsoever at all!  And this is the key truth.

Originally, paper bank-notes were accepted by people, because the notes were legally binding contracts, which offered documentary evidence that the notes could be exchanged for precious metal, at a "Central Bank" of some sort.  But the bankers and the Kings and the governments soon discovered that this requirement was unworkable, dangerous and unnecessary.   This observation paralleled what happened with the original "Stock Certificates" - which originally had a "Par Value" - they were "floated" to the public by businesses, at a certain documented value, typically $25.00 per share.   The business people expected this - and the accountants could set up reasonable books which described what was happening, using double-entry bookkeeping methods.  It all worked good.

But the system was found to work - without these legal assurances of convertability.  Money changed from being "payable in gold or silver" to just being "payable on demand" something that was "worth" the unit being offered.   The same thing happened with stock certificates.  Most stock certficates indicate "no par value" - the certificate has zero intrinsic value, no guarantee of convertability into cash of any amount at all.  But a sale of stock still gets put on the books as a contribution to capital.  A company has a "book value", and that book value, divided by the number of shares that are "outstanding", indicates the "book value" of each share.  This is not a perfect number, but it offers useful information.

Even the "Shares outstanding" is a slippery, vague term which can be many different numbers, depending on how many stock "options" exist, and whether and if and how, the company has "re-purchased" it's own shares (Did the repurchased shares get "cancelled", or did the shares get put in "Treasury"? - it makes a big difference, of course, since "Treasury" shares can be re-sold later (at a higher price, hopefully), but "cancelled" shares cannot be.  This can obscure the picture of what the business-entity is actually "worth". )    And in bubbly times like these - of course the "worth" of a business entity, is almost always driven by the expectations of what the future path of activity, the business-entity is expected to track.  So it all gets even more silly.

Once these legal guarantee's disappear - and the money cannot be legally converted into precious metal at some fixed rate, and the shares cannot be "redeemed" for their par-value at some originally documented price (like modern investors expect that their "bonds" can be), then the paper money and paper shares only retain any value at all, because of the beliefs that exist inside a human mind

This is a really key fact to hold on to.  You can spend a human lifetime, researching this curious and astonishing phenonmenon.  If you can occasionally get some insight into how these mind-held strange beliefs are collectively shifting thru time - you can (sort of) predict how the path of human events will unfold thru time.   If you take the right actions, at the right times, doing this can make you wealthy.  It can actually make you very wealthy.  But you will still age, and die, which is annoying. 

When you are a young economist, you want to throw out all the assumptions and pre-conditions of classical (or neo-classical) economics.  But with a human lifetime of experience, you begin to see why the restrictive and somewhat silly analytic pre-conditions of neo-classical economics, have real value.

Human beings have minds that are full of squirrels.   Women think with their vaginas, and men think with their penises.   This is simply the truth.   Crazy, insane bad decisions get made - both in individual lives (Jeff Bezos offers an  example of this), and collectively (fading old men like Joe Biden show how a whole nation of people can go so very wrong).   

Humans just don't make very good decisions - even if the data and the evidence and the full details are laid down right in front of their little faces, and folks who know, beg the decision-maker to please think for a minute, before making a decision.   Every analyst has this experiece - sometimes so frequently, that the profession of "Analyst" has to be completely given up.   "Better to rule in Hell, than to Serve in Heaven".   Every trader learns this.  It's why, he, or she, trades.  Trading is a truly awful business - people only do it, for the money it can make.

After you have read "In Praise of Folly", I would recommend the Mayan "Popul Vul" - which much like Milton's "Paradise Lost" (which could really be called: "Paradise Sucks!") - tells the story of how to defeat the evil gods that are the source of our grief and pain.   In the Popul Vul, the "Hero Twins", a couple of tricky little brats, use trickery and deception, to master all around themselves, and eventually, descend into Xilbalba (Hell, the Underworld), and defeat the Gods of Death and Decay themselves.  It's one of those canonical texts - how to use clever obfuscation, to triumph over the constant tsunami of evil and awfulness that washes over the lives of us poor, weak humans.   It's the story of the Odessey, also.   Brute force will not do it.   You have to THINK and then ACT with CLEVER DECEPTION in order to defeat your powerful, and brutal enemies.

Even Sun Tzu, the ancient Chinese General, talks about this.  It is key.  You can use the great collective "lack of mind", if you are willing to work your own mental process with a bit more focused effort.   Get your "Orenda" on, keep the machine well maintained, and then do what must be done.  

[ August 18, 2021 ] - That Guy from the "Fed", who Looks Like the Dilbert CEO - Check this comment from "Neel Kashkari", of the US Federal Reserve (the USA central bank, which has created *trillions* of new US dollars to flood the USA economy with..)

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/crypto-is-95-fraud-hype-noise-and-confusion-says-feds-neel-kashkari-11629236416?siteid=yhoof2

Our response:

Bitcoin and Etherium and even Dogecoin - all offer a mechanism to escape from the curious scam that any central-banker is able to undertake. Cryptocurrency is not a perfect solution to the central-bank problem - but it has been shown to work. With a stroke of a pen, a government can invalidate the currency one holds. Kashkari and his organization can literally create money from nothing, and flood that new cash into the economy - and they are doing this now. Historically, people used gold and silver to protect their wealth from government monetary trickery. Crypto-money solves the transaction and portability problem that heavy metal represents.

I have an entire scrap-book of historical, **worthless** banknotes, issued by governments from around the world. There is no other "asset" in history, that is easier to destroy completely or more likely to drop to zero value, than "fiat currency" issued by national governments and central bankers. Right now, the US Federal Reserve is printing (using computers), roughly $120 billion *new dollars* EACH MONTH, and spending them to buy bonds. This is maybe a scam bigger than anything that is happening in crypto-currency markets - and Neel Kashkari knows this.

My old Irish Grandmother would describe Kashkari's comments as a case "of the pot calling the kettle, black." The US Federal reserve gets away with what it's doing, because the US dollar is the world's reserve currency.  This may soon change.

Printing "Reserve Currency" is like issuing cheques that folks don't cash.  It is a very great game while it remains possible.  But history shows, it almost always ends - and it ends usually very badly for folks holding the suddenly-worthless bank notes.

The American surrender in Afghanistan to the Taliban, shows the world - very clearly - the limits of American military power.   Americans can burn down your cities and kill your people by the thousands - but if your people have young men - created by healthy young women - and can maintain a stock of dedicated warriors - then America can be successfully and completely defeated - as both Vietnam in 1975, and Afghanistan in 2021 have proven.

With the American military neutralized, it is not much of a stretch of the imagination, to envision the day when American Dollar dominance is ended.   Perhaps a second "civil war" will engulf the USA.  I have a "Confederate States of America" banknote, which is an interesting historical artifact, with no monetary value.  The American bank-note printing machine can crash and fail, and leave the world holding worthless currency.  We know this can happen because it already did happen once before.

All empires end at some point.   The Roman Empire ended when the civilian populations could no longer afford to fund the Roman Military.  Britons, Gauls, and Germanic tribes discovered they could defeat the Roman military - and free themselves from Roman tyranny.   The Soviet Union's massive Communist Empire collapsed for similar reasons - an economic inability to fund the technological arms-race that America was able to run so successfully.

Every process has limits - but political people will keep pushing, long after it has become clear that the process has reached a limiting-case scenario, and things are starting to fall apart at an increasing rate.

We honestly believe that we are seeing something like this unfold in America, right now, as the astonishing failures of the Biden Administration are becoming apparent.  With the American military disorganized and degraded - their Air Force running way from a terrified and collapsed nation - with desperate people literally clinging to the sides of aircraft - and then falling to their deaths as the aircraft climbs out - this tragic fiasco shows the world clearly the horrific failure of American adventurism - and the failure of the American military.

And if the American military cannot even secure the airside-zone at an airport, how can it do anything else, other than bomb people from above?  

With American military power collapsing, one has to consider the possibility of American dollar-dominance also moving retrograde.

And true to historical pattern - as their military power wanes, the nation is also engaged in a massive (really massive!) money-supply expansion exercise.  And this is simply fucking dangerous, and folks like Neel Kashkari bloody well have to know this - if they have any knowledge of history at all.

So, we conclude his comments about crypto-currency are actually quite hilarious.

The paper money crap that his gang is pumping out - the rate of money-puffery by the Federal Reserve - is vastly more dangerous and disturbing - and scam-like - that anything going on in the crypto-currency markets.  Yes, most crypto-currency is bullshit.   But we are concerned that we are moving into a world where the US dollar may also be viewed much the same way - since history has shown that the production of bullshit paper currency is an action carried out by ALMOST EVERY OTHER NATION IN HISTORY - especially as it's economic options and opportunities begin to collapse.

Kashkari and his team might want to get their own house in order, before they throw too many rocks through too many windows of the structures other folks are trying to build.  

We are in a world now, where many things are failing, and the technological solutions that have been created - are proving to be extreme technological failures.   The technology is causing massive and accelerating levels of social, political and economic damage - and is now being used to deny opportunity to many, rather than create it.   The information sets everywhere, are all tainted by fraud, deception and abusive attempts to manipulate behaviour.

Kashkari should recognize that the out-of-touch, and out-of-control Federal Reserve is risking engineering something that is remarkably similar to the "shitshows" seen in the crypto-currency asset-creation efforts.  

Crypto-currency - and "fiat" (a latin word that means "Let there be...") currency issued by central-banks - are basically the same silly thing - completely synthetic, made-up items, which are passed-off as having value - but only have value if people "believe" the units have value.

Both Kashkari's gang at the Fed - and the rug-pulling crypto-miners - rely on the "confidence" of those people who hold that "money".

Which is the better and safer asset?   Which one - Bitcoin or US dollars - will keep it's value thru time and wars and social and economic dislocations?

Kashkari bloody well knows  - and so does the marketplace:  So far, Bitcoin is winning, and is winning BIG.

We find this amusing and curious.  But we hold neither.   :)

And let's be clear:  Not acquiring a small Bitcoin position - was a mistake.  Crypto is *not* subject to the whims of corrupt governments, and arrogant central-bankers.  We saw this, and it made the asset look interesting.   It is still interesting, is it not?

Kashkari's comments are not just hilarious - they are kind of ...  wrong.  :D

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[ August 17, 2021 ] - USA is Now Bombing Afghanistan - with Afghans - I never expected to see America doing more "bombing" in Afghanistan - but this time, using live Afghans.    Imagine wanting to leave a country so badly, that you would try to cling to the outside of a military transport jet, as it rolls at speed down the runway.   Watching them fall to their deaths and bounce on the runway, is pretty terrible. 

It really is time to alter the program.   The relentless march of Leftist "Governmentalism" needs to be stopped.  It's clear that the greatest dangers and most serious threats average people now face, seem to always come from their own "governments".   To be "governed" is often to be simply enslaved and subjegated - to have your freedom limited, your opportunities restricted, and your lives rendered meaningless.  

We watch - regularly - with disgust and a sense of horror, as the "governments" of the world routinely assault and degrade the lives of their own people, and of the lives of others.

People attempt to rise up and stop the abuse by the "government" agents - but they have no power.  We watched the "Yellow Vest" protests in France, the January 6th protest event in Washington at the rigged American "election", and the mass protests in Belarus against a brutal murdering thug-gangster who siezed power in that sad nightmare-nation - and the common thread is that these protests are worthless and ineffective - they never change anything.

Protesting in the streets is a wasteful, pointless activity.   It never changes anything - and it is easy for the "government" to send in tanks and police and crush the protests.

A criminal bandit might organize a gang and do crime - but his objective is obtaining wealth.   It takes a "government" to commit the really big crimes - the mass murder of millions, the destruction of entire cities, the active machinery of genocide.   All these really awful crimes are created by people sitting around tables in conference rooms - discussing "policy options" - and what typically results is that the lives of millions are negative-impacted.   Governments damage and  restrict human freedom, so they can obtain specific objectives that benefit the *insiders* of the government process machinery.  This is how it works - even in America.

Democracy - in an age where "voting machines" are used - is at risk of becoming a bad joke.  You can simply "dial-up" the election result you want to have, if you can control the machines.  Democracy that uses "voting machines" cannot be trusted.  And we say this with some certainty, as machine-programmers.

The Taliban in Afghanistan have shown the world something interesting.   With organization - and weapons - and a willingness to play the long game, and to fight and die for what all agree must be done - this can completely defeat an organized, well-funded, invasive "government" machine.  And this is especially the case, if the government-machine is dominated by abusive, ignorant "policy wonks" who have been mind-poisoned with the absurd lies the Leftists and other modern "governmentalists" have been taught in modern academic environments.

The astonishing cluster-fuck of idiocy that surrounds the Biden-Harris Democrats in Washington is a particularly interesting example - and it shows how the "governmentalists" can be brought down by their own ignorance and arrogance.   They clearly were operating without any sort of clue about any sort of actually reality.    And this made it easy for the Taliban to quickly re-take what they viewed as their own country.

The Americans - with all their money and machinery and power and killing ability - failed.  Their governmentalist approach failed, and their military projection of power failed.   The Taliban, with crappy, low-quality weapons - but with what appears to be a long-dated, and well-focused human "will" - succeeded.  With their focused *will*, they re-captured their country from American "governmentalists".  The nation may "descend into anarchy" - to use an oft-repeated and idiotic phrase of governmentalist fraudsters and newspaper hacks - but it won't have any American military killboys doing "government work" on them.   The Taliban will kill their Afghans just fine, without any outside assistance.

What we all need to see here is the common thread - it is the very idea of *government* itself, that is the enemy.  When the "government" agents come to kick in the door of your house - and arrest Dad or Brother - and drag them away, or kill them on the spot  - it matters not what uniform the door-kickers wear.

Your job as a human being - is to ensure you have the ability to reduce the "door-kicking squad" to a group which can no longer be a threat - and then carefully inspect each element of the original threat to determine where it came from, and then address the backward-linkages that produced that "door-kicker".    This sounds very harsh - yet it is the basic model of political freedom, and the Afghans really understand this very well.   They do not like to be "ruled" - and we should respect them for this trait, and understand why military methods will have limited effectiveness - not just in Kandahar, but everywhere on Earth.

We - here in the West - need to change the program.   Freedom and economics and social-structure come up from the People of a place - these critical human attributes do not come down from some ruling "government" above them.  

This fact must be understood and accepted by thinking people everywhere.

[ August 16, 2021 ] - America Surrenders to the Taliban - Joe Biden and his corrupt gang of fools may well go down in history, as the worst American "president" and the worst American "government" ever.  They are managing to make Donald Trump - who was not a very wise man - actually look like a fine example of a leader.    That is quite an astonishing accomplishment.

***  [ Update ]  After some searching We found a copy of the Kabul AIrport Video - it is being actively removed from Youtube - but it shows what really happened at Kabul airport this morning - as a US military aircraft took off with people holding onto the side of it.  Several fell off to their deaths.  Joe Biden, the so-called "US President", owns this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ACcu6I8bNSw

*****************

 The Afghan military is being criticized for "not fighting".   Are the people running Biden so amazingly confused and unwise that they cannot even think clearly?    Once the American military forces *SURRENDERED* to the Taliban terrorists, it became clear that the armed Taliban would be running Afghanistan - they will be - for better or for worse - the GOVERNMENT (such as it is) of that country.  The military and police officials all understood this.  They *KNEW* this - and so why would they shoot at the armed Taliban and "fight" them?   I truly hate the "Liberal Government" that rules in Canada, but I do not go out and shoot at them, when they win the election - and I don't expect them to shoot at me, if our guys win! 

Bad stuff happens.  Regime-change happens.   When that happens - when your guys lose and are defeated -  you have to focus on survival, so that you can be there if and when another election or opportunity for regime-repair is possible.   What were the Americans thinking?  They seem to have no imaginations at all.  If America were invaded, and conquered by a superior military force - and the invaders decided to leave - would it seem rational for American political factions to shoot at each other?  Or would everyone just dance in the streets, because the bad guys have finally left town?  The Taliban used to say:  "The rich Americans have very nice watches - but we have the time."   And now, time's up.

Once America simply "cut and ran", the folks who backed the Americans, knew they were defeated.  They would just be putting their families and villages at risk, if they fired on the armed Taliban terrorists - who everyone knew, were ruthless, organized, and lethal - and now in charge of the place.  The Taliban won, and the Americans were defeated in the most complete way possible.

How can the Americans be so unwise?   I just cannot figure out how such lightweight fools could take power in the USA.  Not even an attempt at a UN "Peacekeeping Force" to prevent the terrorists from retaking the country?   Nothing?    For a small compliment of 2000 to 3000 troops, the USA could have maintained a garrison, and ensured a degree of stability - and prevented more terrorist bases from being established.  But this option was not considered, as Biden is perhaps mentally defective, and/or the Democrats are corrupt and completely self-interested in their own tenuous hold on power - and little else.

Once American forces officially negotiated with, and then surrendered to, the Taliban terrorists, then everyone with any sort of brain - and who was able to use it - knew exactly what would happen.  Why would Afghan military people fire weapons against a group that has proven itself to be stronger and more capable than the USA military?   That would b